[HN Gopher] Exxon bets carbon will be the new oil
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       Exxon bets carbon will be the new oil
        
       Author : mfiguiere
       Score  : 77 points
       Date   : 2023-07-21 16:02 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.semafor.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.semafor.com)
        
       | throw0101a wrote:
       | Current refrigerants (e.g., R-410) have large global warming
       | potentials (GWP) when they inevitably leak into the atmosphere,
       | so there's a move to other chemicals. On of the leading
       | contenders (at least in the commercial/industrial space) is
       | actually CO2 (R-744):
       | 
       | * https://www.hpacmag.com/features/co2-as-a-refrigerant-yesco2...
       | 
       | * https://www.ohio.edu/mechanical/thermo/Applied/Chapt.7_11/Ch...
       | 
       | * https://blog.isa.org/why-co2-is-the-most-promising-refrigera...
       | 
       | * https://plumbingandhvac.ca/co2-refrigeration/
       | 
       | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide#Refrigerant
       | 
       | CO2 has GWP=1, and just about everything else is higher.
        
         | SoftTalker wrote:
         | A disadvantage of CO2 as a refrigerant is the operating
         | pressure required, much higher than CFC or HFC type
         | refrigerants. This is probably not a big issue for industrial
         | applications but for home and auto use it will probably affect
         | cost and/or reliability.
        
       | ckrapu wrote:
       | When I think about carbon extraction and storage, I get the same
       | feeling as when I read about the ancients discovering oil seeps
       | and surface deposits of hydrocarbons.
       | 
       | They knew that they could be harnessed for keeping fires lit and
       | even sometimes associated them with the supernatural. They just
       | lacked the tech and industrial background to use them.
       | 
       | We know that carbon is essential for life and if we ever engineer
       | useful organisms to build structures or produce macroscale goods
       | (as opposed to pharmaceuticals or food), then clearly carbon will
       | be one of the main limiting factors, along with energy and water.
       | It just feels like we will one day look back at this and think
       | "why didn't we just try to use it instead of burying it?"
        
         | IX-103 wrote:
         | I don't see how "carbon will be one of the main limiting
         | factors". Carbon is abundant in our environment -- it's around
         | 0.03% of it and is spread evenly enough that you can always
         | find it. It's even relatively common in the universe.
         | 
         | What is hard to find - and has always been hard to find is
         | cheap energy. And carbon dioxide is essentially the lowest
         | energy state for carbon. It's a dead end as far as energy goes.
         | That's why it's a waste product.
         | 
         | If you want to build useful structures then you're still
         | subject to thermodynamics, whether you're using "organisms" to
         | do it or not. So using graphite or any other form of carbon
         | would be a better source of carbon than CO2. The only reason to
         | use CO2 is that it is commonly available (which is why plants
         | use it).
         | 
         | And again, no one is proposing removing all the CO2, just
         | enough to keep us in this little ice age we have been enjoying.
         | So there's no reason to worry about running out.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | juujian wrote:
       | They're going to charge us twice. Once for emitting it, second
       | time for sequestering it. The fight for subsidies up here in
       | Canada is insane. The electricity generated is already more
       | expensive then renewables, and soon they can pad their margins
       | with novelty projects that may or may not pan out, while telling
       | us in their annual reports how great they are.
        
       | collaborative wrote:
       | Summary: https://tinyurl.com/22452u66
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | The real rationale is a few paragraphs down:
       | 
       | > "For now, Denbury's pipeline network isn't really low carbon,
       | but instead will function as an extension of Exxon's normal oil
       | business. Today the CO2 carried in the pipelines is used for
       | "enhanced oil recovery," a process in which it is injected into
       | oil wells to push out the last few drops."
       | 
       | All the DOE-funded 'clean coal' and similar CCS schemes were all
       | conveniently set up near end-of-life oilfields, and whatever CO2
       | they produced was used to help get the last few barrels out. Of
       | course the CO2 is _carrying_ the oil so it 's mostly lost to the
       | atmosphere during the processing/refining stage.
       | 
       | Carbon capture and storage from fossil fuels has been nothing but
       | a massive fraud; capturing and burying 100% of the carbon from
       | coal would take significantly more energy than you can get from
       | burning that amount of coal. Notably, data about this key ration
       | (energy cost per ton of buried carbon vs. energy cost from
       | burning the source fuel) is hidden on the private side of DOE
       | public-private partnerships and can't be accessed by the public,
       | even by FOIA requests.
       | 
       | CCS is literally one of the biggest scientific frauds perpetrated
       | on the public in the history of the DOE.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | chmod600 wrote:
         | "capturing and burying 100% of the carbon"
         | 
         | What about 50%? Does the cost go up as you try to capture a
         | larger percentage?
        
           | tourmalinetaco wrote:
           | From my understanding the cost is in the technology and
           | energy required. Essentially, you burn more fossil fuels
           | trying to inject it at any level than the carbon you put in.
           | And something like this couldn't be run on renewables as is,
           | you'd need a rather large amount of batteries which is so
           | incredibly expensive at this point in time.
           | 
           | So cost and carbon output make geological sequestration
           | impractical. However, when used for "enhanced oil
           | extraction", it easily covers the costs and carbon output
           | worries. They wouldn't do it if it wasn't profitable, and
           | despite the article's claims they are not in the business of
           | carbon neutrality.
        
       | lincon127 wrote:
       | Carbon Capture from industrial point sources is extremely
       | expensive and extremely ineffective. so I doubt that's going to
       | be a thing. The only way I could see CC paying off is if big
       | companies keep lobbying for government grants and taxpayers money
       | to go towards their shite projects so they can abandon them
       | halfway through anyway. This'll keep the prospect of "clean
       | methods" of operating dirty industries in everyone's brain space
       | through political and astroturfed mouthpieces, people will start
       | to believe it and oil companies will once again reap the rewards
       | of mass confusion
        
         | nukeman wrote:
         | It's still a point source, and thus cheaper and easier than
         | direct air capture. I don't think it will be as significant as
         | some think it will be (we will likely move toward different
         | processes for the remaining limited petrochemical production),
         | it is likely to still be important for some industries.
        
       | philips wrote:
       | It is important to remember how poorly the first experiments in
       | carbon transport and storage have gone.
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36021530
       | 
       | https://ieefa.org/resources/norways-sleipner-and-snohvit-ccs...
        
       | arbuge wrote:
       | Key points:
       | 
       | "Carbon management is becoming increasingly popular with oil
       | companies, since it plays to their know-how in trading,
       | transporting, and storing molecules (as opposed to electrons from
       | renewable energy, which are an entirely different business). ...
       | It also allows Exxon to tap one of the most lucrative tax credits
       | in the Inflation Reduction Act: $85 per ton of CO2 that is
       | permanently stored underground. "
        
       | jokoon wrote:
       | oil made those companies rich, but there is no proof that the
       | vision of a rich company will have any value or offer an worthy
       | insight into the future.
       | 
       | important reminder: CO2 is an oxide and requires A LOT OF ENERGY
       | to break down.
       | 
       | so unless they can genetically engineer some kind of moss like in
       | Robinson climate trilogy, it's highly doubtful they will achieve
       | anything worthwhile
        
       | jansan wrote:
       | Stupid question, can't the CO2 just be dissolved in (deep) sea
       | water?
        
         | Kye wrote:
         | CO2 dissolving into water is killing the ocean as we speak.
        
           | jansan wrote:
           | That is just on the surface, right? The mass of CO2 relased
           | into the air per year compared to total sea water on earth is
           | approx 1/35000. Does is really make such a big difference if
           | dissolved in deep sea water?
        
             | Kye wrote:
             | We know basically nothing about the ocean other than it's
             | where almost all our oxygen comes from, and we have no way
             | to know what the tipping point is. Assuming we're too small
             | to affect the environment is how we got here.
             | 
             | And we know from effects of climate change above the
             | surface that it doesn't have to be cataclysmic to cause
             | trouble. There could be all kinds of nasty things in store
             | that are even harder to predict with how hard it is to
             | explore and study the oceans. We don't even have an
             | accurate map of it.
        
               | jansan wrote:
               | That sounds like "I just don't want that!". We don't need
               | a map to know how dissolved CO2 influences acidity of sea
               | water. Trust the science, bro.
        
               | IX-103 wrote:
               | "Trust the science, bro."
               | 
               | There is much more involved than how dissolved CO2
               | affects ocean acidity. CO2 has a number of other affects
               | on both biological and chemical systems that shift
               | equilibriums. Understanding how injecting CO2 would
               | affect deep ocean ecosystems (and indirectly upper ocean
               | layers and climate through layer interchange) when we
               | only have a rudimentary understanding of the deep sea
               | ecosystem is not a matter of science. It's the realm of
               | prophecy and hubris.
               | 
               | I'm not saying that deep-water injections of CO2 are
               | dangerous. But that at the current level of science we
               | don't even know what we don't know about the possible
               | affects that would have. And with the large amounts of
               | energy required to sequester and pump carbon dioxide into
               | the sea, it would be best if we understood the costs as
               | well as the benefits of such an approach before we
               | started.
        
         | hannob wrote:
         | Yes. I mean, that's happening. Some of the CO2 automatically
         | ends up in the ocean, which reduces the burden for the
         | atmosphere.
         | 
         | But what you probably meant is if we can artificially increase
         | the CO2 dissolved in sea water. The answer is no. The CO2 in
         | seawater is relative to the concentration in the atmosphere. If
         | you add more to the atmosphere, you add more to the ocean. If
         | you remove it from the atmosphere, you reduce the amount in the
         | ocean.
        
           | jansan wrote:
           | That is only true for sea water near surface. I am talking
           | about deeper levels of the ocean. If my calculation is
           | correct the mass of CO2 released into the air per year is
           | roughtly 1/35000 the mass of all sea water in the oceans.
           | Sounds not too concentrated to me.
        
         | jasonhong wrote:
         | I'm not an expert in this, but this link from NOAA seems to be
         | a definitive explanation. Short answer is yes, but it also
         | leads to more ocean acidity, which causes problems for ocean
         | life.
         | 
         | https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-co...
         | 
         | Carbon dioxide, which is naturally in the atmosphere, dissolves
         | into seawater. Water and carbon dioxide combine to form
         | carbonic acid (H2CO3), a weak acid that breaks (or
         | "dissociates") into hydrogen ions (H+) and bicarbonate ions
         | (HCO3-).
         | 
         | Because of human-driven increased levels of carbon dioxide in
         | the atmosphere, there is more CO2 dissolving into the ocean.
         | The ocean's average pH is now around 8.1, which is basic (or
         | alkaline), but as the ocean continues to absorb more CO2, the
         | pH decreases and the ocean becomes more acidic.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | CO2 can be combined with powdered limestone and the result
           | mixed with/dissolved in water.
        
       | fwungy wrote:
       | Climate Change is the essence of "Intractable Problems".
       | 
       | There is tremendous wealth in oil reserves that is outside the
       | control of the G7 countries: Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia. There is
       | also demand for this oil from non-G7 nations who simply don't
       | have the money to go carbon free without descent into starvation,
       | poverty and chaos.
       | 
       | Going carbon free on a big enough scale to impact the climate,
       | according to existing models, requires getting these petroleum
       | reserve holders to give up their massive wealth in exchange for
       | little to nothing, and large developing economies to destabilize
       | themselves to go carbon neutral.
       | 
       | IT ISN"T GOING TO HAPPEN.
       | 
       | Poor Indians and Chinese aren't going to give up their
       | opportunity to secure better lives for themselves for the sake of
       | the climate.
       | 
       | We need to be thinking in terms of mitigations and technologies
       | that reduce climate impacts while being economically sensible.
       | 
       | Yes, it's not optimal, but choices made in the real world rarely
       | are, and as adults we must learn to make them.
        
         | briantakita wrote:
         | > Going carbon free on a big enough scale to impact the
         | climate, according to existing models, requires getting these
         | petroleum reserve holders to give up their massive wealth in
         | exchange for little to nothing, and large developing economies
         | to destabilize themselves to go carbon neutral.
         | 
         | The climate will continue to change even if humanity goes
         | carbon free. When it comes to climate, the only constant is
         | change.
         | 
         | > Poor Indians and Chinese aren't going to give up their
         | opportunity to secure better lives for themselves for the sake
         | of the climate.
         | 
         | Or fall for the NeoColonialist trap of paying taxes to
         | financial markets to "save the world". Instead, the producer
         | nations will leverage their positions as commodities become
         | more valuable.
        
       | hannob wrote:
       | It's nonsense like this that makes a more rational debate around
       | carbon capture difficult.
       | 
       | Yes, CCS will likely have to play some role in a future
       | decarbonized society, e.g. for cement production. But it's not a
       | plausible lifeline for fossil fuel companies. The vast bulk of
       | emission reductions need to come from phasing down fossil fuel
       | use, and that is fundamentally incompatible with their business
       | model.
       | 
       | (shameless self plug: I tried to write down my view on the whole
       | CCS issue recently: https://industrydecarbonization.com/news/can-
       | ccs-escape-from... )
        
       | zitterbewegung wrote:
       | Isn't it more likely to be water (and probably more like fresh
       | water ) ?
       | 
       | It's hard to desalinate already and we have been more and more
       | heat and droughts that keep on being said they are of the century
       | or historic and those words are losing their meaning
        
       | luhn wrote:
       | > Exxon's vision is that eventually these pipelines will ferry
       | CO2 captured from industrial point sources like cement and steel
       | plants, and potentially from natural gas power plants, and
       | transport it to underground rock formations or old oil wells
       | where it could be buried (Denbury also owns a number of large
       | sites for carbon sequestration).
       | 
       | Color me skeptical. The article offers no supporting evidence
       | that this is Exxon's "vision", and then hits us with this:
       | 
       | > For now, Denbury's pipeline network isn't really low carbon,
       | but instead will function as an extension of Exxon's normal oil
       | business. Today the CO2 carried in the pipelines is used for
       | "enhanced oil recovery," a process in which it is injected into
       | oil wells to push out the last few drops.
       | 
       | Sounds like they made the acquisition for their current fossil
       | fuel business, not a bet that "carbon will be the new oil."
       | 
       | And as a cherry on top:
       | 
       | > The company plans to double the size of its liquefied natural
       | gas business by 2030, an executive said this week, with a focus
       | on buyers in Asia.
        
         | briantakita wrote:
         | It looks like Exxon is pivoting to be an energy provider &
         | owner of piping infrastructure, with petroleum products being a
         | product line. The CO2 pipelines seem similar in infrastructure
         | to oil pipelines. CO2 looks like a great opportunity for
         | companies like Exxon to further consolidate the energy markets
         | & gain entry into the heavily subsidized Carbon Capture market.
         | They will gain tax funded & printed revenue as well as more
         | pipeline infrastructure.
         | 
         | On the PR front, Exxon is now a "Green Company" who is "saving
         | the world from Climate Change". Their ESG score will rise which
         | will attract additional investment in public markets.
         | 
         | I wonder how many Carbon Offset credits this will yield them.
         | Will this make Exxon a "Carbon Neutral Company"? An interesting
         | mix of finance justified by environmentalism & a case example
         | of what happens when environmentalism is reduced to a single
         | metric. Well played Exxon, well played...
        
           | tim333 wrote:
           | Along those lines there was an interesting article on 'white
           | hydrogen' the other day. Apparently there are vast quantities
           | of hydrogen underground which could be drilled for and piped
           | in a manner similar to natural gas. https://archive.ph/3c7Hs
        
         | toss1 wrote:
         | I also seriously question the concept of massive investment in
         | CO2 dumping/sequestration alone, as it seems more likely that
         | CO2 will be used as a feedstock to generate more complex and
         | useful molecules.
         | 
         | That said, the endpoints of the pipelines could just route to
         | processing plants instead of underground carbon sinks, so the
         | pipeline part could be valid, if appropriately structured.
        
         | throwaway33381 wrote:
         | It sounds more like an excuse to continue to output oil while
         | doing absolutely nothing to stop the further degradation of out
         | environment.
        
           | PaulHoule wrote:
           | Funny but Exxon could become a 'net zero' company without
           | fundamentally changing its business.
           | 
           | You see, companies get charged for the carbon they emit, not
           | the carbon that their customers emit.
           | 
           | An oil refinery is an ideal place to implement carbon capture
           | because it is a concentrated source of emissions and is
           | already using technology such as amine strippers that one
           | would use for carbon capture. Refineries burn a lot of fuel
           | to produce hydrogen and process heat and those could be
           | replaced with green hydrogen or pink hydrogen, heat could be
           | derived from resistive heating, nuclear HTGR or adiabatic
           | compression in turbines. What CO2 is produced can be pumped
           | underground into saline aquifers.
           | 
           | The Biden administration is interested in subsidizing such
           | development in the 'Refinery Row" of the U.S. South and it is
           | something they are equipped to succeed at because they have
           | the geology, industrial concentration, skills and attitude to
           | pull it off.
           | 
           | A net-zero Exxon would still have to decarbonize production
           | and that is harder than the refinery but they could buy some
           | offsets (or themselves implement with direct carbon capture,
           | BECCS, etc.) It would be a lot cheaper than buying offsets
           | for their customers but who knows they might sell those too.
        
             | mullingitover wrote:
             | The idea of Exxon becoming "net zero" is a howler and we
             | can't let them get away with it.
             | 
             | We need to price the carbon emissions at the source. If
             | they want to pass on the external carbon _costs_ to their
             | customers, so be it.
        
               | plagiarist wrote:
               | Stop making destruction of the ecosystem an economic
               | externality? What's next, pricing human rights abuses to
               | prevent US companies from profiting off of foreign slave
               | labor?
        
               | dathos wrote:
               | I think you fail to realize how the profitability of this
               | industry subsidizes a lot of issues that look to be
               | crisises on their own. Plastics being too cheap to make
               | so we don't really do recycling or reducing to name one.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | Why would Exxon need an excuse?
        
           | jimlongton wrote:
           | Related: Revealed: Exxon made 'breathtakingly' accurate
           | climate predictions in 1970s and 80s
           | 
           | https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-
           | clima...
        
           | azinman2 wrote:
           | It shouldn't be a surprise. They're an oil and gas company,
           | with gigantic investments in that space, a culture that
           | supports it, knowledge to do it, politics solved for it, and
           | a crap ton of inertia.
           | 
           | The expectation that they'd pivot is far less likely than
           | likely. This isn't a sector known for disruption outside of
           | new ways to extract.
        
             | fwungy wrote:
             | Private oil companies like Exxon are only about 10% of oil
             | production. The biggies are the state oil companies, on
             | which state wealth depends. They aren't going to give that
             | up.
        
             | csnover wrote:
             | The insane thing about this is to me that Exxon _did_ seem
             | to have ideas about pivoting away from oil and gas in the
             | 1970s[0]. They funded research that brought down the cost
             | of solar panels five-fold and started manufacturing and
             | selling their own panels[1], they developed the lithium-ion
             | battery[2], and they created subsidiaries for servicing the
             | nuclear power industry[3], among other things.
             | 
             | I've never understood the obstructionist position of these
             | oil execs. If you want to make a shitload of money, why
             | _not_ push for development of some emerging industry like
             | renewables where all the infrastructure has to be built up
             | from nothing? That could be money _you_ are getting paid to
             | build it. Instead, now it's money going to some other
             | company.
             | 
             | [0] https://www.desmog.com/s1ep1-bell-labs-energy/
             | 
             | [1] https://www.npr.org/2019/09/30/763844598/how-big-oil-
             | of-the-...
             | 
             | [2] https://www.bupipedream.com/news/49390/prof-
             | whittingham/
             | 
             | [3] https://www.nytimes.com/1976/03/14/archives/exxons-
             | innovativ...
        
               | brmgb wrote:
               | It's not an either/or situation. Most of the Big Oil
               | companies have significant investments in renewable
               | power. It's just that oil is insanely profitable, to a
               | point which is hard to grasp so it dwarfs whatever else
               | they do.
        
               | teddyh wrote:
               | The first digital camera was (AFAIK) made by Kodak. The
               | modern desktop computer was largely invented by Xerox.
               | Both companies failed to follow through.
        
       | 1letterunixname wrote:
       | Too little, too late by the fox guarding the henhouse.
       | 
       | I hope government subsidies and the insurance industry bitch slap
       | manufacturing and petrochem to drive rapid deployment of
       | substantial projects involving oceanic bio-GMO CCS at scale
       | because they won't by so-called "invisible hand" market forces
       | alone until billions are on the move, hypercanes are obliterating
       | continents, and waves are lapping at the NYSE building. It's an
       | emergency, and delay, half-measures, and planting trees isn't
       | going to cut it.
        
       | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
       | I feel like this title is the definition of "anti-clickbait" to
       | me (i.e. I don't even want to read the article because of the
       | title), because it makes no sense.
       | 
       | Oil is primarily an energy _source_. When we talk about  "carbon"
       | in the context of climate change we're usually talking about
       | carbon dioxide, which is a _byproduct_ of energy generation that
       | itself contains no consumable energy. Saying  "carbon will be the
       | new oil" is like saying my poop will be my new food source - it
       | just doesn't make sense.
        
         | xNeil wrote:
         | To be honest, I think "poop will be my new food source" makes
         | perfect sense. But that might just be me.
        
           | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
           | Remind me to pass on any of your dinner parties...
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | formulathree wrote:
       | Get paid for selling oil for people to burn.
       | 
       | Get paid for capturing carbon from burned oil.
       | 
       | It's not exactly in conflict with their current business model.
        
       | geonaut wrote:
       | "ExxonMobil... [acquired]... a smaller Texas oil and gas company
       | with the U.S.'s largest network of pipelines designed to carry
       | carbon dioxide."
       | 
       | There was a great episode of the Volts podcast, about a startup
       | aiming to make synthetic shipping fuel (methanol), where waste
       | CO2 was one of the main inputs.
       | 
       | Some good discussion of where they sourced their CO2, and the
       | practicalities of CO2 distribution.
       | 
       | https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/volts/id1548554104?i=1...
        
       | coffeeshopgoth wrote:
       | Exxon is a behemoth that spreads its money over everything just
       | to catch something - and even that is done poorly over there.
       | They do have a number of legacy fields that if not already on CO2
       | flooding, may become candidates in their eyes soon. But that is
       | where "being done poorly" comes in again. CO2 flooding, like
       | water flooding, should start sooner than later to catch a certain
       | pressure and oil/water amount/quality regime in the reservoir.
       | Guaranteed, they will try to make it look like they are being
       | sustainable by showing off how they are using the CO2, recycling
       | it and, at some point, sequestering it, but it will be done in
       | the most inefficient manner possible and probably result in
       | losing a good amount of CO2 to the atmosphere due to poor field
       | oversight of the equipment. Challenges that will come up due to
       | whatever stage a reservoir might be in:
       | https://www.mdpi.com/energies/energies-10-00345/article_depl...
        
       | ttonkytonk wrote:
       | Asking Exxon to take action to prevent global warming is like
       | asking the foxes to guard the hen house:
       | 
       | https://tz.linkedin.com/posts/alisheridan_assessing-exxonmob...
        
       | kdamica wrote:
       | I would bet that this is not going to happen unless someone finds
       | an industrial use for all that carbon. I'm not an expert but it
       | seems like it would be much more efficient to invest in low
       | carbon energy and manufacturing tech than to build a ton of
       | infrastructure for sequestration.
        
         | ckrapu wrote:
         | If the story of Earth were a novel and the current chapter
         | introduced both global warming and the advent of carbon-based
         | manufacturing, it would almost feel too contrived of a setup.
        
         | notJim wrote:
         | The issue is that some things are difficult to decarbonize
         | because they emit carbon directly due to chemical processes or
         | use gas for process heat. There is a lot of investigation into
         | whether these can be decarbonized economically, but a lot of it
         | is still fairly early stages. It makes sense to have a variety
         | of solutions available, especially for the short term.
        
       | [deleted]
        
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       (page generated 2023-07-21 23:01 UTC)