[HN Gopher] Anti-ageing protein injection boosts monkeys' memories
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Anti-ageing protein injection boosts monkeys' memories
        
       Author : mfiguiere
       Score  : 153 points
       Date   : 2023-07-04 13:18 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nature.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nature.com)
        
       | oogabooga13 wrote:
       | The best anti-ageing cure that works now might be an optimized
       | diet, exercise, and sleep routine. No protein injections
       | required!
        
         | yrds96 wrote:
         | And expose your skin to the sun for few minutes. Vitamin D is
         | important too.
        
       | JPLeRouzic wrote:
       | Luckily, my wife just made me a rhubarb cake.
       | 
       | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27692562/
        
       | vonnik wrote:
       | More benefits of Klotho in model organisms:
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6335176/
        
       | optimalsolver wrote:
       | These glimpses of powerful, future anti-aging treatments is why
       | AGI research must not be slowed down under any circumstances.
       | Immortality is in sight.
       | 
       | I have to say, it's annoying to have been born before radical
       | life-extending technology becomes available, but late enough in
       | the timeline to consider it an actual possibility.
        
         | jliptzin wrote:
         | You will never find yourself in a timeline in which you're not
         | alive. Perhaps you've already died in all the other timelines;
         | this is the one where you live long enough to benefit from
         | life-extending technology and eventually immortality.
        
         | derbOac wrote:
         | Although I agree antiaging interventions need to be pursued
         | completely -- I'm aware of arguments against them but am not
         | sure there's any serious opposition to them? -- there are
         | systemic physical reasons to think there might be hard limits
         | on age.
        
         | penjelly wrote:
         | > AGI research must not be slowed down under any circumstances.
         | Immortality is in sight.
         | 
         | wow. So progress at any cost? Seems misguided to me
        
         | chrisweekly wrote:
         | Nick Harkaway (world-class author, son of John Le Carre)
         | explores this idea in his highly-entertaining, extremely well-
         | written, and thought-provoking novel, Titanium Noir. Highly
         | recommended!
        
         | TriNetra wrote:
         | We're already immortal, just that this body made up of ever-
         | changing physical elements isn't.
         | 
         | We should also strive to reach to a state where we realize
         | experientially our true nature of eternal, pure consciousness,
         | and then we can manufacture whatever body we would need just
         | like our mind manufacture new worlds, objects and different
         | bodies for us in dreams during sleep.
        
           | achow wrote:
           | How to know whether 'Consciousness' is just an output of
           | ever-changing physical element too - in this case flow of
           | energy in neurons.
           | 
           | These flow of energy changes the states of neurons and sum
           | total of that is perception of the 'world' which we think is
           | the consciousness.
           | 
           | Corollary - Due to the quantity and 'quality' of each neuron
           | in each individual, the perception of the world or the
           | reality would also vary for each individual.
        
             | rbanffy wrote:
             | While the patterns engraved in the past cannot be changed,
             | they also cannot be easily retrieved and my own perception
             | of self ends when there is no longer a brain changing my
             | "state vector".
        
         | pointlessone wrote:
         | We need to counterbalance that with a chance of extinction. /s
        
         | idopmstuff wrote:
         | I really improved my lifestyle (exercise, diet, etc.) once I
         | realized that right now, living longer has whatever the
         | opposite of diminishing returns is. Each year that I live
         | doesn't just give another year, it also gives me whatever
         | additional time that life extension technology comes up with
         | that year. It's plausible that the value of some extra year is
         | infinite, because that's when we get to the point of
         | immortality. I hate running, but given that math I feel
         | compelled to get up and put on my running shoes.
        
           | fnordpiglet wrote:
           | However much you exercise your body becomes less efficient at
           | producing and absorbing any number of amino acids and
           | proteins, including arginine, creatine, taurine, etc. It's
           | not unreasonable to supplement exercise with safe anti aging
           | regimes, and it's absurd to have an anti aging regime without
           | improved diet, regular mixed exercise, etc. There's no reason
           | to willfully ignore the science, which says aging comes with
           | an inexorable decline in various crucial amino acids, etc,
           | and that exercise/diet improves the entire system. Doing a
           | sensible and safe total system regime that optimizes along a
           | typical decline curve has all sorts of benefits, including
           | the ability to better take advantage of exercise and diet,
           | but also reduces systemic dysfunction due to imbalances in
           | the availability of basic building blocks like amino acids,
           | minerals, etc, that can be difficult to get in sufficient
           | quantity from the best of diets for an aged person.
           | 
           | TL;DR these aren't mutually exclusive and are synergistic
           | approaches
        
         | nathias wrote:
         | cheer up, we will be the last to die
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | It's an interesting concept that, just a couple generations
           | down the road, there will be relatively few people who have
           | experienced aging and the death that comes with it.
           | 
           | I remember in Cocoon, one of the most touching scenes is
           | between a husband who just lost his wife and an alien captain
           | who just lost a friend for the first time in his multi
           | millennium life. The alien's empathy towards the tragedy of
           | human condition drives him to offer immortality to the old
           | humans he befriended. And all of them accept, with the
           | exception of the one who lost his wife.
        
         | ChatGTP wrote:
         | I didn't see a single reference to AI in the article, so what
         | does AGI have to do with anything?
        
           | optimalsolver wrote:
           | See, there's this prospective thing called AGI that would
           | hypothetically carry out scientific research much faster than
           | humans.
           | 
           | You can get started by reading the following article:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence
        
         | rhyme-boss wrote:
         | So any safety concerns that would lead to slower development
         | should be cast aside because your life is more important than
         | future lives?
        
         | Tor3 wrote:
         | Not particularly interested in immortality, but I sure could do
         | with some restoration of my memory.. which used to be nearly
         | photographic but is now more like now here, now gone with the
         | wind.
        
           | ChatGTP wrote:
           | I'm half way through a year of not drinking alcohol. I cannot
           | tell you what it had done for my memory.
           | 
           | I think I'll drink beer again someday but the increased
           | memory has really made me question whether I actually will if
           | presented with it.
           | 
           | Not sure if you drink or not but if you do, I'd recommend
           | trying it. For me it was an unexpected benefit.
        
             | Tor3 wrote:
             | I basically stopped drinking much of anything alcoholic
             | many decades ago, for no particular reason. No interest, I
             | presume. In general a healthy lifestyle as well, so my
             | reduced memory function seems to be purely an age issue,
             | not that I feel particularly old.
        
         | lo_zamoyski wrote:
         | Immortality in this universe is a physical impossibility, and
         | even if it were medically possible, it is easily lost.
        
         | rubyfan wrote:
         | Wouldn't modern medicine would be considered "radical life-
         | extending technology" to people living 200 years ago?
         | 
         | https://www.statista.com/statistics/1040079/life-expectancy-...
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | BurningFrog wrote:
           | Modern medicine is a relatively small factor for increased
           | life spans.
        
           | ChatGTP wrote:
           | I wonder if this would be true in all cultures though?
           | Australian Aboriginals lives incredibly healthy lifestyles
           | and had access to an abundance of incredible foods.
           | 
           | I don't know if they'd live as long as people today but I'd
           | be surprised if many didn't at least go till at least 70+?
        
             | jncfhnb wrote:
             | Most adults lived to about 60 in most places and times. 70+
             | is not noteworthy.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | "Most adults lived to about 60 in most places and times."
               | 
               | Medieval European burials at least tend to cluster way
               | lower than that. In the Dark Ages, skeletons of people
               | older than 60 are rather uncommon (like 1:30), in the
               | High Middle Ages, they become somewhat more common, but
               | still less than 1:10.
               | 
               | Of all the population groups, the clergy was by far the
               | most long-lived in pre-modern times. A nonviolent line of
               | work, plus almost guaranteed supply of food.
               | 
               | Even in the 18th century in fairly developed Britain,
               | only about 70 per cent of adults (18+) celebrated their
               | 40th birthday.
        
               | Contusion3532 wrote:
               | This was likely due to the population density and
               | sanitation conditions of city living causing infectious
               | disease related deaths, no?
               | 
               | I imagine the risk of contracting fatal diseases in a
               | rural setting was much less.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Crop failures were a major factor in mortality.
               | Subsistence grain farmers in pre-modern times could
               | expect a crop failure once in 5-7 years, sometimes back
               | to back.
        
               | jncfhnb wrote:
               | If 70% of 18 year olds make it to 40, then so long as 5/7
               | of them can survive another 20ish years, you have "most"
               | people making it to 60. If we're cool with a +/- 5 years
               | on the "about 60" figure I think this tracks just fine.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Nevertheless, that was the 18th century in
               | industrializing Britain, which was becoming a lot more
               | efficient at agriculture etc. From many aspects, it was
               | already a fairly modern society, with an emerging
               | literate middle class etc.
               | 
               |  _Even then_ the mortality was still quite high compared
               | to today.
               | 
               | And most agricultural societies before that were
               | regularly swept by famines, which disproportionately took
               | the young and the aging ones.
               | 
               | When judging historic lifespans, we tend to judge by the
               | famous people. Cardinals, popes, kings, emperors. The
               | population average was way, way lower, and the bones from
               | churchyards tell the real story.
        
           | Contusion3532 wrote:
           | AFAIK, it's a bit misleading. Much of that increase is due to
           | a decrease in infant mortality and childhood related
           | illnesses.
        
         | moffkalast wrote:
         | Maybe we can apply the anthropic principle to feel a bit better
         | about it. I.E. we observe the universe to be the way it is
         | because if it were any different, we wouldn't be here to
         | observe it.
         | 
         | We could be alive now because it's the statistically most
         | likely time for most humans to be alive, right between the time
         | it took us to slowly explode in population and the time we
         | implode and make ourselves extinct. Otherwise we'd more likely
         | live further in the future since if we continue growing then
         | there's vastly more humans that will live then. We could very
         | well be living in the best time ever, full stop. Food for
         | thought.
        
           | dmarchand90 wrote:
           | I used to be more worried about an anthropic argument that we
           | are living in end times. (If population growth is exponential
           | then you are most likely to be born near end times)
           | 
           | But, most people have already died https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.ni
           | h.gov/12288594/#:~:text=Assuming%2.... And population growth
           | is shrinking. So I think we're safe
        
             | moffkalast wrote:
             | Well the variance on it is definitely huge by human
             | timespan standards, but I think it's not entirely unlikely
             | that most humans that have ever lived will live between
             | something like 1700-2200 AD. Could be 1700-3500 as well if
             | we're lucky.
             | 
             | It's also entirely possible that ancient Greeks had a
             | discussion like this and decided that they'll all be dead
             | soon, and couldn't have been more wrong, so the error bars
             | are obviously massive when dealing with only an arbitrary
             | fraction of the distribution.
        
         | ldjkfkdsjnv wrote:
         | I think we are still too early. Better to be just a few years
         | old right now.
        
         | dumpsterdiver wrote:
         | > I have to say, it's annoying to have been born before radical
         | life-extending technology becomes available, but late enough in
         | the timeline to consider it an actual possibility.
         | 
         | (Justin Timberlake) "Cry me a river"
        
         | flatline wrote:
         | Alchemy promised similar goals by more mystical means. Taoist
         | practices for life extension go back thousands of years. They
         | would have seemed like actual possibilities to someone living
         | then, too. Just providing some perspective. Medical
         | technologies certainly hold promise, but it may well be another
         | 1000+ years before a meaningful breakthrough occurs. Or it may
         | never.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _Alchemy promised similar goals by more mystical means.
           | Taoist practices for life extension go back thousands of
           | years._
           | 
           | Neither of these were based on the scientific method, a
           | proven process for discovery and knowledge refinement.
        
             | MrDresden wrote:
             | Animal models do not always, and in fact quite often not at
             | all, translate over to humans.
             | 
             | We all know this, but it is worth bringing it up on a
             | regular basis.
        
               | holoduke wrote:
               | Can you name a 'model'? Not sure what you mean?
        
               | q845712 wrote:
               | "animal models" is a fairly standard phrase in research:
               | When people research depression, alzheimers, cancer,
               | etc., they generally start with mice and work their way
               | up through monkeys before coming to human trials. For
               | many conditions there's specific "lines" of mice that
               | have been bred or even genetically modified to exhibit
               | those conditions in a reliable or extreme way. Depression
               | is particularly challenging since you can't ask an animal
               | how it's feeling, and frankly nearly all animals used in
               | laboratories are understimulated, removed from their
               | natural habitat, and probably a little "depressed". (see
               | e.g. the "rat park" studies
               | (https://www.psychiatrictimes.com/view/what-does-rat-
               | park-tea...) that showed that rats were much less likely
               | to self-administer cocaine if they were in an environment
               | that let them have a more enjoyable/fulfilling/natural
               | life otherwise.)
               | 
               | So anyway "animal models" just means "an animal
               | mice/rats/monkeys/etc. that we have decided has enough of
               | the same symptoms of the human disease that we can use it
               | to study treatments of that disease", and it's fairly
               | common for something to work in mice but fail in monkeys,
               | or even to work in both mice and monkeys but not work or
               | have very undesirable side-effects in humans. (side note:
               | one of the least discussed things in pharma is how they
               | source the first humans for trialling a new treatment,
               | which does carry non-trivial risk to the human "guinea
               | pigs" - it's generally people who are poor and
               | desperate.)
        
               | anjel wrote:
               | Thalidomide tested harmless in murine models but was a
               | famously potent teratogen when tested in pregnant humans.
               | 1
               | 
               | 1 https://embryo.asu.edu/pages/studies-thalidomides-
               | effects-ro...
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | At _some_ point stuff gets tested in humans.
        
             | flatline wrote:
             | Science is not magic. It has produced some magical results
             | but it is just one way of obtaining knowledge. I have seen
             | nothing in my casual perusal of the age extension
             | literature that makes me think it's any more than modern
             | day alchemy, hoping for some magical compound that grants
             | immortality, from trace evidence of beneficial properties.
             | 
             | I think age extension is likely possible, and that it will
             | require continual rewriting of the human genome to regress
             | cellular aging, fight cancer, and repair damage to the
             | brain and vascular systems - and all other organs, really.
             | It will require a stupendous technological investment and
             | infrastructure and require much better knowledge of the
             | human brain and cognition than we have today. Certainly
             | nowhere in the next 100 years, we do not even know the
             | causes of or have effective treatments for common forms of
             | dementia, and our cancer treatments are frankly barbaric.
        
         | otikik wrote:
         | Immortality for the extremely wealthy perhaps. The rest of us,
         | at best, will have just enough to keep being productive, until
         | we are no longer needed.
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | Now you get to rent your youthful body for a low fee of
           | 5000EUR per month. [0]
           | 
           | [0] Cancelling the subscription may result in accelerated
           | aging and immediate organ and heart failure.
        
           | osigurdson wrote:
           | What if becomes super cheap?
           | 
           | I think immortality would be bad for humanity, but ~40 more
           | productive years would be beneficial. Currently we take 25
           | years of preparation in order to work 35.
        
             | jncfhnb wrote:
             | The you'll see wealth inequality skyrocket as rich people
             | enjoy wealth compounding for an additional X years.
        
               | bradlys wrote:
               | If most people can live forever, they'll rebel against
               | the conditions they live in. I suspect the rich would
               | actually perish.
               | 
               | A lot of life now is ordained on the idea that we don't
               | live forever and we can't see change in our lifetimes...
               | but if the lifetime is forever - well, I'm gonna fight to
               | make it better immediately cause then I have forever to
               | enjoy it.
        
               | jncfhnb wrote:
               | Seems rather backwards to me. Insurrection doesn't take
               | very long and the stakes are much higher when you have
               | immortality.
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | Unless we get rid of capitalism as well. Or, at least,
               | force these people to pay taxes that prevent the
               | accumulation of wealth and its undue influence in
               | politics.
        
               | Bloating wrote:
               | What happened before capitalism?
        
               | jncfhnb wrote:
               | Hard. While capitalism may be an established societal
               | practice, accumulation of wealth and power is also the
               | natural state of things. You need an incredibly cohesive
               | society to prevent that, the likes of which humanity has
               | never seen imo.
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | Humanity has never seen a lot of things that are now
               | ubiquitous. Have hope.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | soco wrote:
             | So what if this becomes super cheap? Would dental
             | treatments or insulin or whatever other basic medication
             | become affordable too? Because otherwise that's a hell of
             | immortality being offered to the masses...
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Even on a forum where really smart people congregate, the
               | "everywhere is America" syndrom is easily seen - even
               | though Americans only constitute about 4 per cent of the
               | world population.
               | 
               | Where I live, no one struggles to buy insulin. And if
               | there is any kind of anti-aging treatment available, I
               | don't doubt it will be offered to the general population
               | without much ado. Compared to the rising cost of the
               | pension systems in aging populations, treatments like
               | that would be probably "dirt cheap".
        
               | osigurdson wrote:
               | I also live in a "cheap insulin" location. However, I'm
               | pretty sure the Americans ultimately subsidize a lot of
               | drug discovery. Even better would be to have stronger
               | humans that require no healthcare.
        
               | osigurdson wrote:
               | With more productive years it seems like a reasonable
               | conclusion would be that wealth would generally increase.
               | Of course I have no idea what actual age extension would
               | look like, but it seems pointless to extend the 80s or
               | 90s. More years like 30s would be ideal.
        
             | q845712 wrote:
             | but there's a premium on our youth -- The people who
             | complain that it's harder to find a job in their 50s and
             | 60s can't _all_ be wrong or mistaken. I feel like we like
             | to imagine that these treatments would extend our 20s and
             | 30s, but what if they extend our 60s instead?
        
               | osigurdson wrote:
               | That is kind of what I am saying. I think it would be
               | better if we had 25 years of preparation, followed by 75
               | productive years followed by 25 years of retirement. The
               | current 25,35,15 split isn't very efficient.
               | 
               | Ageism might still exist but significantly pushed back.
        
               | zachthewf wrote:
               | Most people I know in their 60s would way rather be in
               | their 60s than dead
        
               | blagie wrote:
               | They can't all be wrong or mistaken, but there can be a
               | very strong sample bias.
               | 
               | I can go into a longer diatribe here, but the short story
               | is:
               | 
               | 1) Most people have a hard time finding jobs at any age.
               | Recent college grads can't all be wrong. :)
               | 
               | 2) There is always a strong reversion to mean
               | 
               | 3) Most of the people in their 50s or 60s whom I hear
               | complaining were an outlier for employability for their
               | age group in their 20s and 30s (e.g. straight out of
               | Stanford).
               | 
               | Most older people I know are /very/ employable, and don't
               | complain. Another pathway:
               | 
               | - Finish a state college. Have a very hard time finding a
               | first job.
               | 
               | - Work up the career ladder, and build up a resume,
               | reputation, and track record.
               | 
               | - Much easier time finding jobs in their 50s and 60s than
               | straight out of college or early career.
               | 
               | Some of this also has to do with bust/boom cycles. People
               | who entered the workforce during recessions had a hard
               | time finding a job in their 20s, and then found things
               | comparatively easy. People who entered during a boom
               | cycle are the opposite.
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | optimalsolver wrote:
           | Think of rich people as beta testers.
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | It's in the interest of the rich for the poor to be the
             | beta testers.
             | 
             | When anti-aging becomes real rather than fantasy, there are
             | going to be _so many_ mutually incompatible conspiracy
             | theories.
        
           | jstummbillig wrote:
           | Can you reason through the gloom? Unless immortality comes
           | with built in invincibility, I don't see how it would not
           | have to be democratized pretty much immediately to avoid
           | civil unrest of the outmost proportions.
           | 
           | Also I don't see what would be to gain to not do it for those
           | in power.
        
             | otikik wrote:
             | Just look at what we let them get away with now.
             | 
             | I'm sure a lot of people would _defend_ the arrangement.
             | "Of course Elon Musk can have inmortality and you don't.
             | He's a genius".
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Ironically, Musk is a longevity skeptic himself.
               | 
               | Bezos would be the guy, spending billions on Altos Labs.
        
               | jstummbillig wrote:
               | I am sure most would not.
        
               | p1esk wrote:
               | Is there anything in terms of healthcare that is only
               | available to billionaires today (not available to middle
               | class)?
        
               | davidcbc wrote:
               | Not going bankrupt
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | Again, not everywhere is America. In fact, most of the
               | world isn't America.
               | 
               | Don't judge the prospects of the entire humanity by the
               | pathology that is called the US healthcare system.
        
           | pinguin3 wrote:
           | Only if they don't live. Doing anything in life has risk:
           | flying, driving etc
        
             | DennisP wrote:
             | People in their twenties have an annual chance of dying of
             | about one in a thousand, so effective anti-aging would give
             | an expected lifespan of about a thousand years.
             | 
             | https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
             | 
             | Based on the rates of various types of accidental deaths,
             | you could extend that quite a bit by avoiding dangerous
             | drugs and and living in an area where you're unlikely to
             | get shot. If we figure out really safe self-driving cars,
             | that'll make a big difference too. In much of Europe you
             | can already get the same effect by taking public transport
             | everywhere. Air travel is quite unlikely to kill you.
             | 
             | https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-
             | mortalit...
             | 
             | Put all that together and a 10,000-year expected lifespan
             | looks pretty achievable.
        
             | JPLeRouzic wrote:
             | And some cells do not reproduce (neurons, etc), so you have
             | to keep them in good shape, except this is impossible. For
             | example 1/3 people are infected with Herpes virus which
             | stays in their neurons.
             | 
             | In addition some cells reproduce only a few times, often
             | only during youth.
             | 
             | And there is sometimes involution like in thymus.
        
         | erikpukinskis wrote:
         | Great, so we can look forward to having presidents who are
         | 200yo instead of 100yo?
        
         | BurningFrog wrote:
         | Pet peeve:
         | 
         | Defeating aging does not make anyone immortal!
        
           | DennisP wrote:
           | But it does get you to a lifespan of several thousand years,
           | as long as you're reasonably careful. I posted sources in
           | another comment here.
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | True. One can still die of disease or accidents. That's why
           | so many stories about immortal humans also have them making
           | backup copies of their minds.
        
           | wheelerof4te wrote:
           | I'm surprised at how much scrolling I had to do in order to
           | find this "little" problem.
        
           | palebluedot wrote:
           | Very good point. And with very long lifespans (thousands of
           | years), all of those low-probability events that may cause
           | accidental death (airplane crash, getting hit by a car
           | crossing the street, violence, etc.) may really start to add
           | up to a not-so-low probability of at least one of them
           | happening within your extended lifespan.
        
         | yeknoda wrote:
         | Immortal is not eternal
        
         | Cthulhu_ wrote:
         | I mean sure, but only if all other health problems are also
         | solved, not to mention society which is already struggling
         | under the pressure of an aging population - causing retirement
         | ages to increase, employment under elderly increasing, and
         | health care systems like the NHS or the US system to crumble to
         | the point of people dying while waiting to be seen by a GP or
         | being referred to A&E to sit and wait for hours waiting for
         | underpaid and overworked staff for something a GP should be
         | looking at.
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | > is already struggling under the pressure of an aging
           | population
           | 
           | Wouldn't making them healthier increase their economic output
           | at the same time it'd decrease their cost to the healthcare
           | system?
        
           | DennisP wrote:
           | The health problems that kill the most people are
           | consequences of aging. People in their twenties have only
           | about a one in a thousand chance of dying each year, and a
           | lot of those deaths are avoidable. Avoid dangerous drugs,
           | live in a safe area, and take public transport, and you'll
           | likely live for thousands of years if you maintain the
           | biology of a 25-year-old. (Sources in another comment I
           | posted here.)
           | 
           | If that were an option, I'd be happy to forgo social
           | security. If everyone were biologically young, there'd be a
           | lot less for a healthcare system to do.
        
         | Contusion3532 wrote:
         | The earth has a carrying capacity of less than one billion
         | people if those people have a USA level of consumption. How
         | would we deal with this problem if people stopped dying or had
         | their lifespans increased dramatically?
        
           | blagie wrote:
           | Why do you think the Earth has a fixed carrying capacity?
           | 
           | As with Moore's Law for decades, there have been many similar
           | predictions in the past, and they fell by the wayside as
           | technology, output, and productivity improved. At some point,
           | Moore's law gave way to more gradual increases, and the same
           | may happen here, but we have no idea how or when.
        
             | Contusion3532 wrote:
             | I'd say human contributed greenhouse gas emissions are the
             | main limiting factor for the earth's carrying capacity for
             | human lives. We're already experiencing many more severe
             | climate related weather events and the problem is only
             | going to get worse each year.
        
               | DennisP wrote:
               | We have multiple power sources that don't release
               | significant greenhouse gases.
        
               | Contusion3532 wrote:
               | We do, but they only contribute a small portion of the
               | world's energy. It will take a long time to get to a
               | point where most energy generated is renewable, and by
               | that point, the climate is going to be a much much bigger
               | problem.
        
               | DennisP wrote:
               | That's a big problem for the next several decades, but by
               | the time longevity tech is mature enough to significantly
               | affect populations, either we'll have converted to non-
               | carbon energy or longevity tech will be pretty much
               | irrelevant anyway.
        
               | blagie wrote:
               | I'm not sure:
               | 
               | - We might be sitting at a 500M population after the
               | [climate / pandemic / AI / nuclear / system collapse /
               | etc] apocalypse.
               | 
               | - We might be sitting on a terraformed Mars (or in
               | bubbles under the ocean)
               | 
               | - We might be sitting in glass domes in the middle of an
               | increasingly climate-hostile Earth
               | 
               | ... and so on. We're very bad at predicting the future;
               | it's hard to pick from thousands of (individually highly
               | unlikely) possibilities.
        
           | JackFr wrote:
           | Well, that really speaks to your worldview and your ideas on
           | the meaning and purpose of life. Why is that a problem?
           | 
           | Is the purpose of life hedonic consumption, where there seems
           | to be no other point than racking up a high score? Is there
           | something more?
        
             | Contusion3532 wrote:
             | I'm actually for us -- especially in the west -- to
             | significantly reduce our carbon footprint and consumption.
             | My personal consumption habits are well-below the average
             | in the west. I think hedonistic consumption is a hollow
             | pursuit. But, I understand that most people will not
             | voluntarily reduce their consumption habits.
        
           | wheelerof4te wrote:
           | There's so much unused space on Earth, and people still make
           | this ridiculous comment.
        
           | ChatGTP wrote:
           | If people could live for ~ 500 years, the preservation of the
           | Earth would turn into a much more important. Anyone who is
           | alamost 100 would have cause for concern about climate change
           | immediately.
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | The difference between an AI which helps speed up medicine
         | development by simulating drug safety, and one which finds tens
         | of thousands of deadly neurotoxins, is a single "min" -> "max"
         | or equivalent.
         | 
         | (And that was something that happened about a year ago
         | already).
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | Assume that someone will always be using the best tools
           | available (some illegally) for the most nefarious purposes.
           | 
           | With that in mind, the moral thing is to use the very best
           | tools available to at least counter those efforts.
        
         | mellavora wrote:
         | The problem with immortality is how does society create room
         | for the next generation?
        
           | BiteCode_dev wrote:
           | That's were going multi-planetary is attractive.
        
           | sjcsjc wrote:
           | These maybe? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder
        
             | DennisP wrote:
             | Yep. Go with that and the solar system has room for
             | trillions of people.
             | 
             | If we invent practical fusion power by then, we can also
             | spread out into the Oort Cloud.
        
           | ericmcer wrote:
           | Just make it a choice, immortality or have children.
        
             | MattPalmer1086 wrote:
             | I have to mention this book:
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Million_Tomorrows
        
             | rbanffy wrote:
             | Or have one every few decades, with plenty time to assess
             | what worked and what didn't.
        
             | soligern wrote:
             | Or a better choice of one child per immortal couple.
        
               | rawoke083600 wrote:
               | Ask China how that worked for them... Too many men, too
               | few women.
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | Each generation gets a moon to terraform.
        
         | firstplacelast wrote:
         | People living longer makes the world worse.
         | 
         | Maybe there's an economic system that would not do this, but
         | currently most people's lives are not improved with increased
         | longevity across the board.
         | 
         | It's one of the reasons I left my job in pharma. The constant
         | circle jerk about making the world better + comparative low pay
         | when so few could afford a condo on their own salary. Whose
         | lives are we making better? Certainly not the lives of the
         | people I see every day.
        
         | dmarchand90 wrote:
         | Oh yes please. I look forward to being kept alive forever by a
         | machine god with incomprehensible motivations.
         | 
         | Lol jk I still don't want to age and die to be honest
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | The only difference from our current most likely future is
           | the immortality part, so why not?
        
             | dmarchand90 wrote:
             | I was thinking of more of a "i have no mouth and yet I must
             | scream" or a black mirror "white Christmas" scenario
             | 
             | Edit: to be clear I would still take the immortality like
             | 100%
        
         | kypro wrote:
         | Please stop. Not all of us want a future where everyone is an
         | immortal, useless consumer ruled over by AGI gods or the select
         | few who own them.
         | 
         | I don't think we've yet learnt that technological progress
         | today comes with much more risk and is not an automatic good.
         | The atomic bomb probably should have woken us up to this, but I
         | worry we'll need to learn this lesson the hard way eventually.
         | 
         | For example, a forest fire in California isn't a big deal in
         | the context of global ecosystem, but if that forest is your
         | world then it's everything. The invention of fire might come at
         | the risk of burning down a forest or two, but it doesn't come
         | at the risk of burning down the entire Earth. If fire did come
         | at that cost humans wouldn't have made it.
         | 
         | AGI doesn't just have the ability to make you a useless
         | immortal meat bag as you apparently desire. It also has the
         | ability to provide the intelligence and knowledge needed so
         | that every human on Earth can create create a civilisation
         | destroying virus if they so choose.
         | 
         | I know it's weird, but I like the present. We have problems,
         | but all in all it's a great time to be alive. I'm not immortal,
         | but I think that's okay.
         | 
         | We should be more careful about seeking to make radical changes
         | which could destabilise the progress we've made.
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | Speak for yourself. I'd take immortality without thinking
           | twice.
        
       | leke wrote:
       | Planet of the apes beginnings
        
       | yes_man wrote:
       | Regarding the immortality talk around the topic. I am not an
       | expert and this is not an informed argument, but intuitively
       | feels this whole "anti-ageing by chemical cocktails" cannot be
       | sustainable forever. There must be a price for injecting
       | increasing quantities of proteins to the body to turn back the
       | clock. Imagine a headline from 1893 about discovery of meth:
       | "Japanese scientists invent an injection that cures humans from
       | the need to sleep". It turns out there is a price for messing
       | with the system.
       | 
       | So I do not believe any immortality of the human body by these
       | synthetic interventions is possible. Kicking the can down the
       | road certainly and would be nice to live healthy longer.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | It is unlikely that anti-aging will rely on chemical cocktails
         | forever. The entire field is still fairly new, somewhere where
         | aviation was in 1908 or so.
         | 
         | I would guess that the really efficient anti-aging
         | interventions will rejuvenate _cells_ , including stem cells.
         | 
         | Interestingly, Dr. Gregory Fahy has some positive results with
         | rejuvenation of the thymus in humans (not in mice). It seems
         | that a well-functioning immune system is a must for longer
         | life.
        
         | BurningFrog wrote:
         | I think aging exists because it enables/speeds up evolution.
         | 
         | There are a few organisms that don't seem to age at all.
         | They're very marginal, but prove it's possible.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | yowzadave wrote:
         | Once a person is past child-rearing age, there is little
         | evolutionary advantage for a longer lifespan--so perhaps it's
         | just a trait that hasn't been prioritized by evolution?
        
           | cscurmudgeon wrote:
           | No, not at all. In more advanced social species, there is an
           | evolutionary advantage to older individuals helping their
           | young.
        
           | boringg wrote:
           | Interesting thought.
        
           | TimPC wrote:
           | I think this is clearly false for humans. I think it is
           | unquestionable that kids do better when parents have actively
           | involved grandparents in their lives. Raising a kid without a
           | support network is overwhelming, and even more so in modern
           | culture where so many kids are raised in single-parent homes.
           | If you measure success of a lineage over time, having the
           | grandparents die off before they get grandkids would have
           | significant adverse effects.
        
             | delecti wrote:
             | Grandparents sure, but great grandparents? Great great
             | grandparents? I think at a certain point additional
             | surviving generations would be either a neutral or even net
             | disadvantageous change for the greater population. Assuming
             | 20 years per generation, there wouldn't be a huge pressure
             | to live longer than 60-70. We clearly didn't evolve to
             | naturally live forever.
        
             | heresie-dabord wrote:
             | The village/community would be the most successful support
             | model.
        
         | chessgecko wrote:
         | Is immortality a genetic advantage? I'd imagine it could create
         | a lot of infighting.
        
           | TimPC wrote:
           | I bet societies without immortality progress faster than
           | societies with immortality socially. A large portion of
           | opinion change occurs intergenerationally with old views
           | dying off, some people change their opinions on major values
           | over time but far fewer people do than we like to think. I
           | think for example it would be far harder to get things like
           | gay marriage passed if people born in 1000 AD were still
           | around today.
        
             | boringg wrote:
             | I think the definition of progress is a key consideration
             | here.
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | > There must be a price for injecting increasing quantities of
         | proteins to the body to turn back the clock.
         | 
         | Cancer.
         | 
         | So many cell death pathways are to guard against cancer.
        
           | inglor_cz wrote:
           | Nevertheless, humans aren't that much optimized against
           | cancer.
           | 
           | The really big mammals such as elephants and whales seem to
           | be very cancer-resistant. So many more cells to go haywire
           | and still they only suffer cancer at a low rate compared to,
           | say, mice. Or even us.
        
         | Cthulhu_ wrote:
         | Yeah, I mean life expectancy has made great strides in the past
         | 100 odd years worldwide; what we see is a higher occurrence on
         | things like cancer and heart disease or other diseases that
         | become more and more likely with age. There's the pressure on
         | the health care / social systems as well, which is partially
         | compensated now by having people work longer - either by
         | raising the retirement age, or having no state pension so that
         | the elderly are forced to keep working for longer.
         | 
         | But your point also stands, treatments like this, IF they
         | become commonplace, may have far-reaching effects that we can't
         | oversee yet.
        
           | inglor_cz wrote:
           | Hello to Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett sitting on
           | the SCOTUS bench in 2060 or 2070 or possibly even 2100.
           | 
           | Many of our political systems are based on the expectation
           | that people grow frail and retire earlier than they actually
           | _already do today_. The US Senate is becoming a geriatric
           | institution that would put Brezhnev 's politburo of 1980 to
           | youthful shame.
        
             | Teever wrote:
             | So what are you saying, that we shouldn't have
             | technological innovation because our governments have
             | stagnated?
             | 
             | Or are you saying that we need to have governmental
             | innovation concurrent with technological innovation?
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | The latter. The institutions need to adapt, much like
               | they did adapt to instant communication and the printing
               | press before.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | ddgflorida wrote:
             | We can hope.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | On the political scale, I am fairly to the libertarian
               | (not religious) right, but personal ossification is bad
               | regardless of its political flavor.
               | 
               | Moderate term limits (e.g. no more than 25 years in
               | public offices in your lifetime) should certainly be at
               | least tested.
        
         | gumby wrote:
         | Though I would very much like to live a lot longer, the society
         | I would live in would be somewhat suckier because of it. The
         | consequences have been extensively explored in the literature
         | for the last 3,500 years at least.
         | 
         | Failing that, making QoL a square wave would be a massive win.
        
           | etothepii wrote:
           | Would they duck for those of us alive today? We (those of us
           | alive today) would like be the absolute masters of the
           | universe.
        
         | someplaceguy wrote:
         | While I agree in principle and I am also not an expert by any
         | means, I think it should be possible to inject a finite amount
         | of substances that eventually cause a change to the composition
         | of the human body to make it functionally immortal, in theory.
         | 
         | I think this can be reasoned from three observations:
         | 
         | 1. That it is possible to change the DNA of the cells of a
         | living organism by injecting substances in said organism (as
         | evidenced by genetic advances in recent decades?).
         | 
         | 2. That the DNA of an organism has an extreme amount of control
         | over the composition of said organism (as evidenced by the
         | amount of diversity in all DNA-based organisms and species and
         | also by the known fact that changes in the DNA of an organism
         | also change how it evolves).
         | 
         | 3. That biologically immortal species already exist (e.g.
         | hydras?).
         | 
         | That said, I'm pretty sure we're extremely far away from
         | achieving this (unless we can create superintelligent AIs
         | soon).
        
         | zug_zug wrote:
         | No idea why you're downvoted. The idea that the human body has
         | the formula for immortality 99% right and it just "forgot" to
         | make enough of protein X which has no downsides seems
         | hopelessly naive to me.
         | 
         | Just look at existing health interventions, like HGH, and see
         | all the side-effects and risks associated with it.
        
           | dempedempe wrote:
           | I think they're being downvoted for the meth comment. I agree
           | with everything OP and you said, but the meth example is a
           | bit hyperbolic - the downsides to meth consumption would
           | surely be felt much sooner than any theoretical downsides of
           | the protein mentioned in the article.
        
           | Teever wrote:
           | Now make the same argument about proteins and other nutrients
           | in general.
           | 
           | Like, 'The idea that the human body has the formula for
           | living 99% right and it just 'forgot' to make enough of
           | protein X...' and if we just eat enough, often enough...
           | 
           | Our bodies weren't designed to work in this environment. They
           | just came to work well enough in an environment like this.
           | That means that there are issues with them, and that they
           | eventually fail. That doesn't mean that we can't overcome
           | these issues like we have overcome others with the use of
           | technology.
           | 
           | Anti-aging is like any other technology that we use. It
           | modifies us or our environment for a desired purpose. Is any
           | technology flawless? No. Have they revolutionized our lives
           | and made how the average human lives almost inconceivable to
           | humans from 100kya? Totally.
           | 
           | Are we on the cusp of technological developments that will
           | make how we live further unrecognizable. Totally.
           | 
           | IVG, artificial wombs, anti-aging/age-reversal, lab grown
           | organs, automatic limb generation (like a salemander). Are
           | all coming and will irrevocably change the human condition.
           | And some of these things are coming in the next decade.
           | 
           | Maybe you're right, and we can't have an infinite life span,
           | but I bet we could double life/healthspan, and I think that
           | is coming very soon.
        
             | wpietri wrote:
             | Do you have any evidence for your imaginations of how
             | people lived in the past?
             | 
             | My understanding is that a healthy old age in the past was
             | rarer, but that we've not really changed the limits, just
             | improved the median experience. See, e.g.:
             | https://sc.edu/uofsc/posts/2022/08/conversation-old-age-
             | is-n...
             | 
             | > Are we on the cusp of technological developments that
             | will make how we live further unrecognizable. Totally.
             | 
             | I too like science fiction. But we've been "on the cusp of"
             | a lot of those things for quite a long time. I think that's
             | more indicative of what people who are afraid of death want
             | than a cold-eyed analysis of current tech and rates of
             | progress.
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | > My understanding is that a healthy old age in the past
               | was rarer, but that we've not really changed the limits,
               | just improved the median experience.
               | 
               | Even if your premise is true: there's still a _whole lot
               | of room_ to improve the median experience.
               | 
               | And I don't think it's really true, but it's hard to say
               | exactly. Part of the reason why we have people make it to
               | 110 now versus that not happening a couple centuries ago
               | is that we have more people and thus more rolls of the
               | dice, but it's not the entire reason.
               | 
               | > But we've been "on the cusp of" a lot of those things
               | for quite a long time.
               | 
               | I haven't felt like we've been very close. But now, I
               | think we have a reasonable chance of a couple therapies
               | that each buy few years of QALY for the entire population
               | in the next 30 years, and when you look 50 years out
               | maybe you even stack several of these things.
        
               | wpietri wrote:
               | There's room to improve the median experience, sure.
               | Maybe not a whole lot, though. And I'm not sure people
               | making it to 110 is positive; I'm interested in actually
               | living, not a couple decades of being warehoused.
               | 
               | > I haven't felt like we've been very close.
               | 
               | I'm not saying _you personally_ felt like that. I 'm
               | saying that that the "sci fi things are just around the
               | corner" routine is perennial. AGI and robots and flying
               | cars have been coming soon for longer than most people
               | have been alive.
               | 
               | I also note that "couple therapies that each buy a few
               | years" is a major retreat from the point I was actually
               | adressing which was life made unrecognizable by
               | salamander limbs, etc.
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | > And I'm not sure people making it to 110 is positive;
               | I'm interested in actually living,
               | 
               | Centenarians don't do so badly in a lot of quality of
               | life measures. They actually have a lower level of
               | dependency, on average, than those in their late 80s.
               | 
               | But in any sense, this is why I mentioned QALYs (quality-
               | adjusted life years).
               | 
               | > AGI and robots and flying cars have been coming soon
               | for longer than most people have been alive.
               | 
               | I think this misstates what most people have felt was
               | imminent. Occasional luminaries feeling that flying cars
               | were close (e.g. Ford), and breathless media pieces does
               | not a consensus view make.
               | 
               | In any case, this whole line of argument ("Lots of people
               | have believed this forever@!(!") even if it were true,
               | would not be a great argument against assessing the
               | current prospects as pretty good.
               | 
               | > I also note that "couple therapies that each buy a few
               | years" is a major retreat from the point I was actually
               | adressing which was life made unrecognizable by
               | salamander limbs, etc.
               | 
               | 3 years of QALY for the population would likely look like
               | 30% of the population getting some crazy-ass therapy that
               | adds _many_ years of QALY, and many other people dying
               | too soon or having other ailments that are not addressed.
               | 
               | Alternatively it could come from finding something
               | unexpectedly cheap and broadly helpful that you could
               | treat a very large percentage of the population from and
               | that most people benefit and get 5 years.
        
               | wpietri wrote:
               | When I point out your handwaving, I am not looking for
               | more handwaving in response. My impression stands. I
               | think you, like many, are indulging in technoutopian
               | wishful thinking.
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | > When I point out your handwaving, I am not looking for
               | more handwaving in response.
               | 
               | ??? You seemed to broadly agree with the one and only
               | comment that I made, and then I offered some nuanced
               | disagreement to your statement. And then you have this,
               | frankly, hostile response.
               | 
               | It's really rich for someone with this in their profile:
               | 
               | > than people being respectful and/or standing behind
               | their words.
               | 
               | Exercise some respect. We're talking about assessing
               | probabilities of distant events on multi-decade horizons.
               | It's going to be hand-wavy, just like your dismissal of
               | the prospects is hand-wavy (it's unlikely because
               | allegedly people were too optimistic about flying cars??)
               | 
               | > I think you, like many, are indulging in technoutopian
               | wishful thinking.
               | 
               | Well, the horizon I pointed out is long enough that I've
               | got relatively poor prospects of benefitting from it
               | myself...
        
             | TimPC wrote:
             | Double lifespan sounds like a nightmare if we don't
             | dramatically change all of society first. I don't think
             | it's possible to make that work unless we're talking about
             | raising a retirement age to something like 130. In that
             | case you better be actually be roughly halving aging so
             | that a person can still work at 130, not adding a bunch of
             | low quality years to life.
        
               | Teever wrote:
               | It would be great if we could hit the pause button and
               | 'fix' society exactly the way we want it, but that isn't
               | how it works, so we'll have to roll with the
               | technological innovations and adapt society as they come.
        
               | mullingitover wrote:
               | There's a simple recipe for ultra-long life that's
               | guaranteed to work, and would work via the traditional
               | mechanisms of evolution: progressively raise the
               | childbearing age for a group of people over many
               | generations. Start by only allowing childbirth at age 30
               | or so, then every few generations you raise it more. It
               | would take time, but eventually you could have people
               | living for centuries. It would have the advantage that
               | society would slowly and naturally adapt to it as
               | longevity increased.
        
               | thereticent wrote:
               | Good luck "only allowing" a common result of sex under a
               | certain age but well above sexual maturity. Somehow I
               | have my doubts about implementation.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | Good luck with your eugenics project. Society rejected
               | the notion quite a while ago.
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | Aside from the eugenics nature of it, this is an
               | experiment we're gradually trying naturally.
               | 
               | High-SES people are having children at later ages and are
               | mostly having children with each other. If there's
               | selection effects to be reaped, we'll witness them.
               | 
               | But I suspect we won't, because not enough people die
               | before these later childbearing ages to affect things
               | much. Neither do a great enough fraction die before said
               | later children reach adulthood, and high-SES children
               | have prospects of reproducing affected less by loss of a
               | parent, anyways.
        
               | mullingitover wrote:
               | Note that I'm not saying it should be done, just that
               | this is how evolution can accomplish it. It should go
               | without saying that breeding humans like cattle is wildly
               | unethical.
        
               | tenpies wrote:
               | > Double lifespan sounds like a nightmare if we don't
               | dramatically change all of society first.
               | 
               | See I'm not worried because odds are this won't be a
               | simple intervention. It won't be "take this pill daily to
               | 2X your lifespan". It will likely be an incredible effort
               | that takes constant discipline and daily commitment. And
               | most people simply are incapable or unwilling to do that.
               | 
               | I expect only fraction of a percent to maybe do the work
               | necessary, and even then, it will come at a huge personal
               | expense.
        
           | newZWhoDis wrote:
           | Alternative/fun sci-fi plot: The aliens who sped up our
           | evolution by artificially limiting our lifespans did so via
           | relatively sloppy means and there is in fact an "off" switch
           | waiting on some grad student to stumble upon
        
             | gumby wrote:
             | Some alien crashed on this planet about 4.5 Gy ago so made
             | some proteins and nucleic and released them on the planet.
             | 
             | Once it started recombining the alien went to sleep or
             | maybe to play some video games while waiting for this
             | process to develop space flight and send some probes that
             | the alien's buddies might encounter and read the message
             | encoded in the DNA: "Hey, could you please swing by and
             | pick me up? My ship got a flat and I don't have a spare"
        
           | devnullbrain wrote:
           | Human evolution doesn't care about life after prehistoric
           | child-rearing. It has no reason to optimise for longevity.
           | 
           | HGH has deleterious health effects when abused. But it can
           | also make you a famous movie star living a life of luxury
           | whose children will never have to work. Our personal goals
           | have very different parameters to what defined our evolution.
           | 
           | There are also other things that the human body benefits from
           | but can't make itself. Creatine, essential amino acids,
           | essential minerals and vitamins.
        
             | SoftTalker wrote:
             | I'd disagree that evolution doesn't care about longevity.
             | There could be survival benefit to have grandparents around
             | to help take care of kids while the parents are hunting or
             | whatever. But after a point, it's a negative, as the young
             | would have to spend disproportionate resources caring for
             | and feeding the elderly who don't really provide any value
             | anymore.
             | 
             | The old of all species die and make room for the (hopefully
             | larger) generation of the young.
        
               | etothepii wrote:
               | This is not true if all creatures, Human Fish, Lobsters
               | etc.
        
           | wpietri wrote:
           | For sure. It's as foolish to me as somebody thinking they can
           | keep a classic car going forever if they just use a better
           | motor oil.
           | 
           | In the early days of the automobile, Ford sent people around
           | to junkyards to look at their cars. They were looking for two
           | things. One was obvious; they were looking for things that
           | consistently failed too soon, so they could make them better.
           | The other was to look for things that had a lot of life left
           | in them, so they could make them cheaper. The net result: a
           | car that was great when new, did pretty well for a while, and
           | then had thing after thing going wrong with it, such that it
           | was just time to get a new one.
           | 
           | Evolution is, like Ford, an unsentimental optimizer. I
           | believe bodies are basically the same deal as cars. That's
           | certainly how people talk about getting old; everything
           | starts to wear out at around the same time. Doctors are happy
           | to fight individual problems, but even in the best hospitals,
           | doctors will get to the point where somebody has too many
           | problems, is too medically fragile, for them to treat
           | anything.
           | 
           | And from the perspective of one's genes, that's fine. Like
           | people buy new cars, genes build shiny new bodies so they can
           | continue roving the world. With an infinite supply of new
           | bodies available, why would they make any individual one such
           | that it could last forever? Much better to build cheap and
           | replace every so often. The frequency of "so often" changes
           | for the circumstance, but the pattern doesn't.
        
             | gumby wrote:
             | > Evolution is, like Ford, an unsentimental optimizer.
             | 
             | I certainly won't argue with this position, but note that
             | evolution is a peephole optimizer, rather than trying
             | newton's method, much less trying to optimize with a goal
             | in mind. It does seem most people draw the wrong conclusion
             | from the ape-to-man drawing (e.g.
             | https://www.kindpng.com/picc/m/408-4084640_evolution-ape-
             | to-... )
             | 
             | It's a random walk: each set of die rolls is continually
             | tested on local (i.e. contemporary) conditions. You may
             | have superior lifespan but live where people commonly die
             | in floods. Only broad signals (e.g. ambient temperatures
             | ranging between -10 and 40 C) really determine widespread
             | attributes.
             | 
             | So what? Well 300 My of human evolution has included
             | feedback loops uncommon and later unknown to other animals:
             | speech, writing, and the social structures they afforded;
             | hygene and other medical intervention; etc, and they do
             | feed back into evolution even at the slow rate at which
             | humans reproduce. Now we can (poorly) do genetic
             | intervention, it's quite possible to subject humans to more
             | rapid evolutionary pressure (most of it likely driven by
             | fashion), with an attempt to move to goal-directed rather
             | than peephole optimization.
        
               | wpietri wrote:
               | I agree with what you said, but I don't see how it
               | relates to the question of whether the sort of silver
               | bullets the forever-young crowd want actually exist.
        
           | ddingus wrote:
           | I know exactly why. And I agree with our parent commenter,
           | BTW.
           | 
           | The down votes are from people who want to believe. And I
           | won't blame or judge them. It is an ugly, extremely likely
           | truth.
           | 
           | Who wants to die?
           | 
           | Not me, not on current timelines. After a longer time? Maybe.
           | We may tire of the world or something.
           | 
           | But otherwise, yeah. Our condition is amazing! We all get
           | this free ticket to our world, and there is no where near
           | enough time to fully appreciate it.
        
       | BurningFrog wrote:
       | I assume there is already a black market for klotho injections?
        
       | zug_zug wrote:
       | PSA - If you think you're never going to die, you're wrong and
       | you are in emotional denial and talk it over with a therapist or
       | something.
       | 
       | The human body is a machine with so many failure modes that we
       | don't even remotely understand all the ways you can die. The idea
       | that we'll find 1 magical variable (telomere length or some
       | protein) that can be fixed and ALL the changes of aging (from
       | growth, sexual development, menopause, brain shrinkage, skin
       | wrinkles, bone density loss) will go back to exactly perfect AND
       | any other ways you can die will all be prevented (car accident,
       | cancer, diabetes, etc) is just about zero.
       | 
       | For example the human brain in constantly losing brain cells
       | (which don't grow back obviously). Many body cells don't regrow
       | at all[1]. I'm sure there are many other mechanisms in the human
       | that never evolved to the point of >100 year reliability.
       | 
       | 1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_cell
        
         | moneywoes wrote:
         | On the bright side is there anything we can do to limit this
         | loss of brain cells?
         | 
         | I guess my grand parents suggestion of eating almonds isn't
         | viable..
        
         | kiba wrote:
         | There's never going to be a single treatment for aging, but
         | there's an intervention everyone knows theycan take to slow
         | down the inevitable decline until medicine improves to the
         | point it can aid in in slowing and then reversing the decline.
         | 
         | Mostly, it involves exercise of various kinds.
        
         | throw310822 wrote:
         | > The idea that we'll find 1 magical variable (telomere length
         | or some protein) that can be fixed and ALL the changes of
         | aging...
         | 
         | Agree with this, but on the other hand: the idea that the body
         | is "a machine" that comes out of the factory in "new" condition
         | and slowly degrades by wear, accidents and corrosion is also a
         | wrong analogy. The body doesn't just degrade because of
         | entropy. Bodies bootstrap themselves to some pristine state and
         | can return to it, after injuries or illness, for tens of years.
         | The ability to restore an optimal state is just lost, it's not
         | something that needs to be invented again.
        
         | jbm wrote:
         | Thank you for your efforts. Sadly, despite the image of
         | rationality, the delusional thinking you infer to is widespread
         | in industry.
         | 
         | I've had a manager telling me that aliens were going to offer
         | us the secrets of immortality and "zero point energy", while
         | another one seriously claimed that "We will develop time
         | travel, and we will all rescue each other at the end of our
         | lives in a chain of immortality". These are the more extreme
         | examples, but the wishful thinking component is common. What is
         | also common is that most of these people never spent time in a
         | university biochem or genetics class.
         | 
         | If the idea of chemically-induced immortality gives one
         | comfort, sure, I am irrational at times too so I understand.
         | However, the complexity and depressing nature of human biology
         | and human genetics will relieve you of this wishful thinking if
         | you so choose. Feel free to look at reptile regeneration
         | models; I did and I'm glad I had the sense to get out before it
         | ruined my life.
         | 
         | For those naysayers desperate for their immortality fix,
         | perhaps a fresh round of teenage blood transfusions[1] are in
         | order?
         | 
         | [1] https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/02/could-
         | young-...
        
         | laputan_machine wrote:
         | Is this how you walk around talking to people? Get off your
         | pedastal, mate. It comes across as rude, take a day off. Nobody
         | needs to be informed about your "PSA".
         | 
         | Who hasn't had had someone close to us die?
        
           | zug_zug wrote:
           | Yes, I'm rude. And so are you. I don't care whether you like
           | it.
           | 
           | I'm a participant in this forum and it's my perrogative to
           | get people who post stupid stuff, like attempts at
           | immortality, to stop, by downvotes and comments. Moreover
           | from MY perspective you should have learned understand this
           | forum isn't a place for a friendly speculation with people
           | who know nothing relevant on a topic like your local pub.
        
             | dwaltrip wrote:
             | Do you think your comments are effective? People don't
             | generally react well to someone telling them "your idea is
             | stupid, you need to see a therapist".
        
               | zug_zug wrote:
               | Yes, I think my comments are effective, but I don't think
               | they are pleasant.
               | 
               | It seems like you think it's wrong to give great advice
               | that might hurt feelings, if that's what you think then I
               | think you're wrong and possibly causing more harm in the
               | long term.
        
             | november84 wrote:
             | PSA - your comments are never going to stop people from
             | posting or commenting.
             | 
             | This forum has many different personalities and
             | perspectives. People with soft skills and people with
             | almost none.
             | 
             | Work on the soft skills mate. No need to be so abrasive.
        
               | zug_zug wrote:
               | You are well aware that every remark everyone says has
               | some small impact on those around us, otherwise you
               | wouldn't be making such remarks yourself.
               | 
               | Like I said, if you want a forum for jabbering on topics
               | you know nothing about with friendly people, I'm sure you
               | can find a local pub. I want a forum where inside experts
               | who read peer-reviewed studies or have first-hand
               | experience give a download, and the rest to hold their
               | tongue.
               | 
               | I think you may be in the "the rest."
        
       | SoftTalker wrote:
       | > There must be a price for injecting increasing quantities of
       | proteins to the body to turn back the clock.
       | 
       | Go read _Flowers for Algernon_
        
       | submeta wrote:
       | The thought of everlasting life seems at first glance to be quite
       | enticing, yet the inevitability of death is what gives life its
       | value and meaning. In some ways, this reminds me of a metaphor: a
       | fetus not wishing to leave its mother's womb. The womb is
       | comfortable, familiar, and safe - much like our lives. However,
       | without birth, the opportunity to experience the world in all its
       | beauty and complexity, in all its highs and lows, would remain
       | unrealized.
       | 
       | We find ourselves fearful of death, not because it is inherently
       | terrifying, but due to our limited comprehension of its nature.
       | Our collective fear of the unknown compels us to seek perpetual
       | life as a means to sidestep this uncertainty. Yet, death is as
       | much a part of life as birth, and perhaps our trepidation stems
       | from misunderstanding, rather than the event itself.
       | 
       | In much of life, as with the natural world, there exists a
       | cyclical pattern of transformation - not an abrupt cessation. If
       | we look to Buddhist philosophy, for example, we see the belief
       | that our ego-mind, the part of us that clings to transient
       | moments and shies away from change, is what dreads the idea of
       | letting go. It's this ego-mind that is afraid of losing itself,
       | of losing control.
       | 
       | Yet, Buddhism also teaches us the concept of Anatta, or non-self,
       | a notion that suggests that this clinging ego-mind isn't our true
       | nature. By holding on so tightly to our lives, we may be
       | disregarding the beauty and wisdom inherent in change, in letting
       | go, and perhaps, in death itself.
       | 
       | Just as a caterpillar morphs into a butterfly, maybe death is not
       | an end but a metamorphosis, a transcendence into a different
       | state of existence that our current understanding simply cannot
       | grasp. After all, every living being encounters death. This
       | universality suggests that it holds purpose and significance in
       | the grand scheme of life's narrative.
       | 
       | I think, before we leap into the pursuit of eternal life, perhaps
       | we should first strive to better understand, accept, and make
       | peace with the cycle of life and death.
        
         | guerrilla wrote:
         | > the inevitability of death is what gives life its value and
         | meaning.
         | 
         | By what mechanism does it do that? How do you conclude that
         | life has any meaning or value? What is the value and meaning of
         | life according to you?
        
           | submeta wrote:
           | I believe the concept of 'meaning' is inherently human
           | because we are intrinsically teleological beings. We
           | habitually seek meaning, purpose, or goal-orientation in
           | every aspect of our existence.
           | 
           | I also believe that the concept of 'meaning' exists only
           | within the realm of human consciousness. Outside the human
           | experience, the concept of 'meaning' is virtually non-
           | existent. For instance, the cosmos doesn't assign 'meaning'
           | to celestial events; they simply occur in adherence to the
           | laws of physics.
        
             | lo_zamoyski wrote:
             | You sound like a Cartesian dualist. Consider the following:
             | 
             | 1. Why should "human consciousness" have a teleological
             | character, while everything else in the universe should be
             | devoid of it? This means that "human consciousness" is
             | different from the rest of the universe in some intrinsic,
             | substantial way. Hence, dualism, and in the Cartesian
             | scheme, this division is expressed in the distinction
             | between _res cogitans_ and _res extensa_. But then if human
             | consciousness (or res cogitans) is distinct, then we can at
             | least entertain the possibility of the immortality of
             | personal human consciousness as it is not subject to the
             | flux of the remainder of the universe in which things pass
             | into and out of existence.
             | 
             | 2. What is a law of physics? Where can I find one? Does it
             | haunt the universe like a ghost, enforcing obedience to its
             | will on otherwise inert "stuff"? That sounds like either
             | another consciousness, or a third category of thing. Or it
             | is perhaps just a convenient way of summarizing observed
             | regularities, regularities that must be accounted for by,
             | say, appealing to the the nature of a kind of thing? The
             | difference matters, because now we must begin to talk
             | telos.
             | 
             | 3. How do you explain efficient causality without final
             | causality? How can you account for regularity? If I strike
             | a match against a matchbox, I can predictably cause fire.
             | Fire is predictably the result, not the manifestation of an
             | elephant or a cheeseburger or Beethoven's 9th symphony. The
             | match is causally ordered in a way that, when the right
             | cause comes along, the effect of fire is achieved. That is
             | all that telos is, the ordering of things toward effect or
             | _end_. The nature of a thing is realized--actualized--in
             | the effecting of what it is ordered toward. (People confuse
             | telos with conscious, deliberative purpose, but that is but
             | a species.)
             | 
             | 4. What is _meaning_? Do you deny that things are what they
             | are, that they are intelligible for what they are? If you
             | do, then what business do you have telling us what the
             | universe and human consciousness is like? Are you a
             | nominalist[0]? If so, what business do you have making
             | general statements about the universe and human
             | consciousness?
             | 
             | [0] https://www.newadvent.org/cathen/11090c.htm
        
             | guerrilla wrote:
             | Well, that partly answers the second question but what
             | about the other two? As for the second, how does the fact
             | that we seek it and that it is would have to be
             | psychological entail that it exists and that we find it?
        
         | erikpukinskis wrote:
         | I guess we have to accept that this perspective will be at the
         | bottom of such threads.
         | 
         | But this is the conclusion I've come to as well. I used to fear
         | death, now I fear wasting my life.
         | 
         | The more I learn about the natural world, the more I can see
         | that death is a gift, a mechanism for renewal as well as for
         | protecting things which have existed for millions of years.
         | 
         | Nothing I have in my brain is that special, compared to what
         | the collective of life has created. I'm happy to give up living
         | and become a more background part of what comes next. It's an
         | honor. And I hope I can honor it.
         | 
         | It's very interesting to read this thread though and remember
         | that so many people see death as a simple black line that might
         | just as well be evaded as understood.
        
           | pyth0 wrote:
           | I feel similarly to you, and yet there is always such a
           | strong negative reaction to this sort of sentiment in anti-
           | aging threads. I wonder what people outside the HN bubble
           | think of this, since I've always thought that coming to terms
           | with death and your own mortality was just a part of growing
           | up.
        
             | DennisP wrote:
             | Coming to terms with death is a necessary adaption to the
             | fact that we're all going to die in a fairly short time. If
             | we had an expected lifespan of ten thousand years, then I
             | wonder how many people would think that the way to "grow
             | up" is to give up 99% of that time, rather than living
             | those years and learning whatever lessons they bring.
             | 
             | Perhaps, when the solar system is full of 5000-year-olds,
             | they'll marvel that we infants were able to muddle through
             | at all.
        
         | lo_zamoyski wrote:
         | Buddhism's "solution" is essentially personal suicide. "How can
         | I die, if I am not, save in some non-personal sense?" But
         | nobody really cares about a "non-personal" survival, making
         | this an effectively nihilistic way of dealing with the subject.
         | 
         | (A nice, short summary of various positions you might find
         | interesting: https://www.newadvent.org/cathen/07687a.htm)
        
         | DennisP wrote:
         | Perhaps. But if I had the opportunity to investigate those
         | concepts by meditating for several centuries, as one part of an
         | even longer life, I'm not so sure that'd be a bad idea.
         | Buddhism also, after all, includes the concept of Bodhisattvas,
         | who don't need to incarnate but choose to do so anyway, out of
         | compassion for others.
        
       | pengaru wrote:
       | The wikipedia page for klotho has an informative section re:
       | anti-aging effects
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klotho_(biology)#Effects_on_ag...
        
       | [deleted]
        
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