[HN Gopher] Norway discovers Phosphate deposit large enough to s...
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Norway discovers Phosphate deposit large enough to supply world for
100 years
Author : ren_engineer
Score : 56 points
Date : 2023-07-03 20:40 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.independent.co.uk)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.independent.co.uk)
| rgmerk wrote:
| I remember reading part of a PhD thesis about the implications of
| "peak phosphate" more than a decade ago. (Not my area of
| expertise, but the guts of it weren't particularly difficult to
| understand).
|
| My takeaway (though not the author's) was that it's way down the
| list of things to worry about.
|
| Basically, the cost of phosphate is such a miniscule component of
| the cost of food that it would make essentially no difference if
| we had to mine lower-grade sources of it.
|
| Higher prices might also reduce the amount wasted as runoff,
| which also would reduce the environmental damage caused by
| fertiliser use, something we're going to have to take more
| seriously at some point.
| pfdietz wrote:
| Phosphate in soil is mostly in fixed, unavailable forms (like
| ferrous phosphate). Prolonged application of phosphate
| fertilizer would cause their accumulation. At that point, I
| think it would be worthwhile to look for ways to tap into that
| store, for example Phosphate Solubilizing Bacteria (PSBs), or
| plants genetically modified to perform the same function in
| their roots.
|
| Phosphate removed from fields by erosion or in plant matter
| would have to be replaced at some point.
| andrewstuart wrote:
| "Huge old pile of bird shit found, everyone rejoices."
| whiplash451 wrote:
| Good thing this did not happen to a country that was already
| sitting on billions of $ of gas exploitation. Fairness always
| wins in the end. Oh wait...
| mcpackieh wrote:
| It's a good thing it's in Norway, because Norway has already
| proven themselves capable of competently managing valuable
| natural resources, avoiding the resource curse. In most other
| countries, particularly developing or underdeveloped countries,
| such a windfall would probably cause long-term damage to their
| economy and political stability / freedom.
| benj111 wrote:
| It's a democracy and has a strong rule of law.
|
| At least the whole population will be seeing the benefit, not
| just the corrupt few.
| Fervicus wrote:
| Those two points are true for most western countries today
| and yet only a corrupt few reap the benefits.
| hju22_-3 wrote:
| You'd be surprised then. Norway is not much better than any
| other corrupt democracy, it's just slow.
| dzhiurgis wrote:
| I suspect it's same here in New Zealand. It's absolutely
| impossible for incumbent company to get into big gov or
| enterprise scale projects. Everyone knows each other. In
| Health everyone are even from same school. Hundreds of
| millions are spent on software licences that no one uses.
| deciplex wrote:
| > At least the whole population will be seeing the benefit,
| not just the corrupt few.
|
| Indeed. Had this happened in a country more vulnerable to
| regime change their government may have been couped already.
| rmm wrote:
| Great news, but just to tone it down to reality a bit. The
| current drilled orebody is only down to 400m and are only
| resources now and not fully reserves (important distinction in
| mining).
|
| The massive numbers they are talking about are extrapolating
| drill results down to 4500m, which is pretty crazy. But let's say
| the orebody does extend to depth at regular grades, that would be
| the deepest mine in the world, and there are a lot cheaper
| options.
|
| (I'm a hard rock mining engineer)
| pedalpete wrote:
| This is what I was curious about, thanks for clarifying. But
| based on the 400m orebody results, do you have any suggestion
| for how much phosphate this "rock" might contain at reasonable
| mining depths based on todays technology?
|
| I'm curious if this could turn out to be enough for 20 years,
| or a drop in the ocean.
|
| Assuming it's enough for 20 years, and we estimate batteries
| will continue to get more efficient, does the 20 years in
| todays technology end up being 50 years?
| rmm wrote:
| Not with just that info. Lot of what I quickly found is all
| press release marketing fluff. You need the % phosphorus and
| a bunch of other variables.
|
| Battery tech needs little phosphorous now, in terms of
| overall percentage and even with overly optimistic battery
| estimates I don't think it will get to any more than 10% of
| demand. It's mostly about fertiliser/agriculture.
| underdeserver wrote:
| What are the cheaper options?
| rmm wrote:
| Western Sahara but realistically it's all morroco. They have
| largest reserves now and at the price to mine 4500m deep
| underground, it would turn a lot of resources in morroco to
| reserves.
|
| I did feas work on a project in Tunisia a decade ago that was
| quite substantial but economics marginal and couldn't get it
| over the line due to then prices of phosphorous and the
| ability of morroco to just ramp up production (actually
| should probably dust it off). There are lots of resources
| like this that would become economical faster. Supply/demand
| and all that.
|
| That said the initial ore body may be great and 50 years from
| now who is to say
| ren_engineer wrote:
| stuff like this really makes it seem like simulation theory might
| be real, there have been people warning about phosphate shortages
| leading to food crisis for years and even as recently as a few
| months ago, then Norway finds this massive supply
|
| https://phys.org/news/2023-02-phosphorus-shortage-affect-wor...
|
| https://www.wired.com/story/the-worlds-farms-are-hooked-on-p...
|
| Norway also seems to be the luckiest/most blessed nation on
| earth, now they struck another gold mine to go along with all
| their oil
| standardUser wrote:
| The world is very large and we have a detailed accounting of
| what, maybe a fraction of one percent of it? It would be FAR
| weirder if we stopped discovering new things in a mostly
| unexplored planet.
| ryan93 wrote:
| You are exaggerating. but there is definitely more to find.
| some of the largest mines are just like the first place they
| started digging without any modern exploration techniques.
| Mostly doesn't matter. humans will run out at some point of
| critical materials.
| renewiltord wrote:
| Doesn't that seem that perhaps the people warning about crises
| are the ones who are wrong?
| simmerup wrote:
| People are investing money to find solutions to the problems we
| face. Seems reasonable that with money comes results
| makx wrote:
| This, and also: all the discoveries that _don 't_ immediately
| help solve our problems rarely make the news, or if they do
| we gloss over them and forget them immediately.
| Der_Einzige wrote:
| Fun little thing to mention about Phosphate mining.
|
| A tiny island country called Nauru
| (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru) got super rich off of
| Phosphate mining which kept going into the 1990s. This led their
| government to invest in many projects abroad, including what may
| in fact be the worst large-scale well funded musical ever.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonardo_the_Musical:_A_Portra...
| nabla9 wrote:
| Those lucky sons of bitches in Norway.
|
| 1. Huge oil and gas resources
|
| 2. Huge hydropower resources. 96 per cent of all electric power
| generation comes from hydropower.
|
| 3. Gigantic phosphate deposits.
|
| 4. Sensibility to avoid resource curse and invest excess money.
|
| 5. Fjords designed by Slartibartfast
| hju22_-3 wrote:
| Number two isn't very accurate nowadays, since they're
| exporting it and importing more expensive and pollutive power
| instead.
|
| A certified 4 dimensional big brain achronal chess move us puny
| mortals are incapable of comprehending.
| fulltimeloser wrote:
| 6. https://www.tasteatlas.com/map-of-european-cuisines-with-
| rat...
| royjacobs wrote:
| I'm fairly sure Italy would happily trade some pasta-based
| dish for unlimited hydroelectric energy.
| manuelmoreale wrote:
| As an Italian I have my doubts ahah
| benj111 wrote:
| Tinned spaghetti hoops?
| rad_gruchalski wrote:
| And the population of Norway is 5.4 million. For comparison,
| metropolitan Berlin is 6.1 million.
| camillomiller wrote:
| ? The latest official figure for Berlin is 3.6 million. You
| mean the Berlin + Brandeburg metropolitan region, which is
| Berlin (city state) plus an area that's at least as big as
| the metro area including the Berlin city suburbs expansions
| into Brandenburg. With the resulting area, 6.2 million people
| still amount to a quite low density compared to many other
| cities. Paris would have been a better example.
| rad_gruchalski wrote:
| Have I not said metro Berlin? Yes, Berlin is 3.6, metro
| Berlin is 6.1.
|
| I picked a random city from wikipedia, not attached to
| Berlin.
| [deleted]
| gumballindie wrote:
| I'd say number four should be first in your list. Had they not
| been sensible they might not even have found this deposit, nor
| would they have had a massive sovereign fund. They'd been
| buried in rusty lambos and warlord money.
| vizzah wrote:
| Well, investing their surplus into Facebook/META (among many
| other stonks) is a pretty risky trade.
| nradov wrote:
| With that much money they pretty much have to invest in
| every publicly traded company.
| bugglebeetle wrote:
| Famously saved by a former Iraqi petroleum executive, who
| knew about the resource curse:
|
| https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.2604105
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