[HN Gopher] Norway discovers Phosphate deposit large enough to s...
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       Norway discovers Phosphate deposit large enough to supply world for
       100 years
        
       Author : ren_engineer
       Score  : 56 points
       Date   : 2023-07-03 20:40 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.independent.co.uk)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.independent.co.uk)
        
       | rgmerk wrote:
       | I remember reading part of a PhD thesis about the implications of
       | "peak phosphate" more than a decade ago. (Not my area of
       | expertise, but the guts of it weren't particularly difficult to
       | understand).
       | 
       | My takeaway (though not the author's) was that it's way down the
       | list of things to worry about.
       | 
       | Basically, the cost of phosphate is such a miniscule component of
       | the cost of food that it would make essentially no difference if
       | we had to mine lower-grade sources of it.
       | 
       | Higher prices might also reduce the amount wasted as runoff,
       | which also would reduce the environmental damage caused by
       | fertiliser use, something we're going to have to take more
       | seriously at some point.
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | Phosphate in soil is mostly in fixed, unavailable forms (like
         | ferrous phosphate). Prolonged application of phosphate
         | fertilizer would cause their accumulation. At that point, I
         | think it would be worthwhile to look for ways to tap into that
         | store, for example Phosphate Solubilizing Bacteria (PSBs), or
         | plants genetically modified to perform the same function in
         | their roots.
         | 
         | Phosphate removed from fields by erosion or in plant matter
         | would have to be replaced at some point.
        
       | andrewstuart wrote:
       | "Huge old pile of bird shit found, everyone rejoices."
        
       | whiplash451 wrote:
       | Good thing this did not happen to a country that was already
       | sitting on billions of $ of gas exploitation. Fairness always
       | wins in the end. Oh wait...
        
         | mcpackieh wrote:
         | It's a good thing it's in Norway, because Norway has already
         | proven themselves capable of competently managing valuable
         | natural resources, avoiding the resource curse. In most other
         | countries, particularly developing or underdeveloped countries,
         | such a windfall would probably cause long-term damage to their
         | economy and political stability / freedom.
        
         | benj111 wrote:
         | It's a democracy and has a strong rule of law.
         | 
         | At least the whole population will be seeing the benefit, not
         | just the corrupt few.
        
           | Fervicus wrote:
           | Those two points are true for most western countries today
           | and yet only a corrupt few reap the benefits.
        
           | hju22_-3 wrote:
           | You'd be surprised then. Norway is not much better than any
           | other corrupt democracy, it's just slow.
        
             | dzhiurgis wrote:
             | I suspect it's same here in New Zealand. It's absolutely
             | impossible for incumbent company to get into big gov or
             | enterprise scale projects. Everyone knows each other. In
             | Health everyone are even from same school. Hundreds of
             | millions are spent on software licences that no one uses.
        
           | deciplex wrote:
           | > At least the whole population will be seeing the benefit,
           | not just the corrupt few.
           | 
           | Indeed. Had this happened in a country more vulnerable to
           | regime change their government may have been couped already.
        
       | rmm wrote:
       | Great news, but just to tone it down to reality a bit. The
       | current drilled orebody is only down to 400m and are only
       | resources now and not fully reserves (important distinction in
       | mining).
       | 
       | The massive numbers they are talking about are extrapolating
       | drill results down to 4500m, which is pretty crazy. But let's say
       | the orebody does extend to depth at regular grades, that would be
       | the deepest mine in the world, and there are a lot cheaper
       | options.
       | 
       | (I'm a hard rock mining engineer)
        
         | pedalpete wrote:
         | This is what I was curious about, thanks for clarifying. But
         | based on the 400m orebody results, do you have any suggestion
         | for how much phosphate this "rock" might contain at reasonable
         | mining depths based on todays technology?
         | 
         | I'm curious if this could turn out to be enough for 20 years,
         | or a drop in the ocean.
         | 
         | Assuming it's enough for 20 years, and we estimate batteries
         | will continue to get more efficient, does the 20 years in
         | todays technology end up being 50 years?
        
           | rmm wrote:
           | Not with just that info. Lot of what I quickly found is all
           | press release marketing fluff. You need the % phosphorus and
           | a bunch of other variables.
           | 
           | Battery tech needs little phosphorous now, in terms of
           | overall percentage and even with overly optimistic battery
           | estimates I don't think it will get to any more than 10% of
           | demand. It's mostly about fertiliser/agriculture.
        
         | underdeserver wrote:
         | What are the cheaper options?
        
           | rmm wrote:
           | Western Sahara but realistically it's all morroco. They have
           | largest reserves now and at the price to mine 4500m deep
           | underground, it would turn a lot of resources in morroco to
           | reserves.
           | 
           | I did feas work on a project in Tunisia a decade ago that was
           | quite substantial but economics marginal and couldn't get it
           | over the line due to then prices of phosphorous and the
           | ability of morroco to just ramp up production (actually
           | should probably dust it off). There are lots of resources
           | like this that would become economical faster. Supply/demand
           | and all that.
           | 
           | That said the initial ore body may be great and 50 years from
           | now who is to say
        
       | ren_engineer wrote:
       | stuff like this really makes it seem like simulation theory might
       | be real, there have been people warning about phosphate shortages
       | leading to food crisis for years and even as recently as a few
       | months ago, then Norway finds this massive supply
       | 
       | https://phys.org/news/2023-02-phosphorus-shortage-affect-wor...
       | 
       | https://www.wired.com/story/the-worlds-farms-are-hooked-on-p...
       | 
       | Norway also seems to be the luckiest/most blessed nation on
       | earth, now they struck another gold mine to go along with all
       | their oil
        
         | standardUser wrote:
         | The world is very large and we have a detailed accounting of
         | what, maybe a fraction of one percent of it? It would be FAR
         | weirder if we stopped discovering new things in a mostly
         | unexplored planet.
        
           | ryan93 wrote:
           | You are exaggerating. but there is definitely more to find.
           | some of the largest mines are just like the first place they
           | started digging without any modern exploration techniques.
           | Mostly doesn't matter. humans will run out at some point of
           | critical materials.
        
         | renewiltord wrote:
         | Doesn't that seem that perhaps the people warning about crises
         | are the ones who are wrong?
        
         | simmerup wrote:
         | People are investing money to find solutions to the problems we
         | face. Seems reasonable that with money comes results
        
           | makx wrote:
           | This, and also: all the discoveries that _don 't_ immediately
           | help solve our problems rarely make the news, or if they do
           | we gloss over them and forget them immediately.
        
       | Der_Einzige wrote:
       | Fun little thing to mention about Phosphate mining.
       | 
       | A tiny island country called Nauru
       | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru) got super rich off of
       | Phosphate mining which kept going into the 1990s. This led their
       | government to invest in many projects abroad, including what may
       | in fact be the worst large-scale well funded musical ever.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonardo_the_Musical:_A_Portra...
        
       | nabla9 wrote:
       | Those lucky sons of bitches in Norway.
       | 
       | 1. Huge oil and gas resources
       | 
       | 2. Huge hydropower resources. 96 per cent of all electric power
       | generation comes from hydropower.
       | 
       | 3. Gigantic phosphate deposits.
       | 
       | 4. Sensibility to avoid resource curse and invest excess money.
       | 
       | 5. Fjords designed by Slartibartfast
        
         | hju22_-3 wrote:
         | Number two isn't very accurate nowadays, since they're
         | exporting it and importing more expensive and pollutive power
         | instead.
         | 
         | A certified 4 dimensional big brain achronal chess move us puny
         | mortals are incapable of comprehending.
        
         | fulltimeloser wrote:
         | 6. https://www.tasteatlas.com/map-of-european-cuisines-with-
         | rat...
        
           | royjacobs wrote:
           | I'm fairly sure Italy would happily trade some pasta-based
           | dish for unlimited hydroelectric energy.
        
             | manuelmoreale wrote:
             | As an Italian I have my doubts ahah
        
               | benj111 wrote:
               | Tinned spaghetti hoops?
        
         | rad_gruchalski wrote:
         | And the population of Norway is 5.4 million. For comparison,
         | metropolitan Berlin is 6.1 million.
        
           | camillomiller wrote:
           | ? The latest official figure for Berlin is 3.6 million. You
           | mean the Berlin + Brandeburg metropolitan region, which is
           | Berlin (city state) plus an area that's at least as big as
           | the metro area including the Berlin city suburbs expansions
           | into Brandenburg. With the resulting area, 6.2 million people
           | still amount to a quite low density compared to many other
           | cities. Paris would have been a better example.
        
             | rad_gruchalski wrote:
             | Have I not said metro Berlin? Yes, Berlin is 3.6, metro
             | Berlin is 6.1.
             | 
             | I picked a random city from wikipedia, not attached to
             | Berlin.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | gumballindie wrote:
         | I'd say number four should be first in your list. Had they not
         | been sensible they might not even have found this deposit, nor
         | would they have had a massive sovereign fund. They'd been
         | buried in rusty lambos and warlord money.
        
           | vizzah wrote:
           | Well, investing their surplus into Facebook/META (among many
           | other stonks) is a pretty risky trade.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | With that much money they pretty much have to invest in
             | every publicly traded company.
        
           | bugglebeetle wrote:
           | Famously saved by a former Iraqi petroleum executive, who
           | knew about the resource curse:
           | 
           | https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.2604105
        
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       (page generated 2023-07-03 23:01 UTC)