[HN Gopher] Google's quantum computer instantly makes calculatio...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Google's quantum computer instantly makes calculations that take
       rivals 47 years
        
       Author : andrewstuart
       Score  : 181 points
       Date   : 2023-07-03 02:04 UTC (20 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.smh.com.au)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.smh.com.au)
        
       | marricks wrote:
       | > He said: "This is a very nice demonstration of quantum
       | advantage. While a great achievement academically, the algorithm
       | used does not really have real world practical applications,
       | though.
       | 
       | > "We really must get to utility quantum computing - an era where
       | quantum computers with many thousand qubits actually begin to
       | deliver value to society in a way that classical computers never
       | will be able to."
       | 
       | This seems to be the most level headed take from the paper and an
       | explanation why (if claims are to be believed) we haven't seen
       | anything useful come from quantum computing yet that couldn't be
       | done by classical computers.
       | 
       | Maybe it still is all hype and the reason we haven't seen a
       | useful calculation is because the only problems it can solve
       | better than others happen to be especially contrived. I guess
       | time will tell.
        
         | tedivm wrote:
         | I don't think it's that the concepts are contrived (although
         | the test cases certainly are), it's just that our quantum
         | computers are really early in their development and can't do
         | the more complicated things yet. It's like if we had
         | calculators that took an hour to do each arithmetic operation-
         | the fact that people wouldn't use it doesn't mean arithmetic is
         | contrived, just that it isn't as powerful as better
         | alternatives.
         | 
         | As the quote mentions, we'll need "many thousand qubits" to
         | reach the point where society itself is getting new benefits
         | out of things. These contrived cases help figure out how to
         | scale the whole system.
        
           | upofadown wrote:
           | It's more like if we had calculators that could not do any
           | arithmetic operation at all...
           | 
           | Someone someday might figure out how to make the calculator
           | actually calculate, but not yet.
        
           | AbrahamParangi wrote:
           | There's a fundamental question as to whether or not it's
           | exponentially difficult to add additional qubits. If each
           | marginal qubit is 5% more difficult to add as the previous
           | one the task would be essentially impossible - and even if it
           | wasn't impossible it would turn out to basically be cheating
           | (in that you would be doing exponential work via either the
           | quantum computing route or the conventional route).
        
             | alpineidyll3 wrote:
             | Note: that there is good physical reasons why the cost of
             | QC may grow exponentially with qbits. Refrigeration is
             | exponentially inefficient as T=>0 and the gap of a quantum
             | system which sets the temperature you must cool to shrinks
             | as you couple new degrees of freedom. This dynamic has been
             | the basic reason for the sub exponential progress in the
             | area (despite exponential expenditure)
        
               | s1dev wrote:
               | This is not quite true. You only need to keep the qubits
               | at a fixed temperature as you scale the system, so the
               | resources required to add additional qubits grow only
               | polynomially with the system size. Once you have many
               | qubits with a sufficiently low (but constant) error rate,
               | you can do quantum error correction which also only has
               | polynomial overhead.
        
               | alpineidyll3 wrote:
               | No you are missing the fact that if the qubits are
               | coupled the systems fundamental gap has shrunk demanding
               | a lower temperature for the same error rate.
               | 
               | You should think more about why your rosy scheme hasn't
               | worked yet if you can't explain that empirically maybe
               | you don't quite understand.
        
               | abdullahkhalids wrote:
               | Not for photonic quantum computing. Only detectors
               | require cooling, and it is possible to build adequately
               | sized quantum computers with constant number of detectors
               | using loop based architectures.
               | 
               | Even more realistic architectures are very very cost
               | effective on the number of components
               | https://quantumfrontiers.com/2023/06/21/what-is-the-
               | logical-...
        
               | pclmulqdq wrote:
               | Yeah, it always struck me as odd that the main quantum
               | computing research labs went for the "VLSI" approach
               | straight away rather than building room-sized computers
               | with qbits that are known to be more stable and don't
               | require such aggressive refrigeration.
               | 
               | Between the costs of refrigeration/fabrication and the
               | increased speed of decoherence, it's not hard to imagine
               | that the approach of using superconducting qbits may be a
               | dead end, despite quantum ECC.
        
               | abdullahkhalids wrote:
               | There are very valid reasons for this. Historically, this
               | is what happened.
               | 
               | * People did very basic qubit experiments with NMR in the
               | late 90s. Very noisy experiments.
               | 
               | * Around 2000 they realized photonic quantum computers
               | would be "easiest" because light experiences very little
               | noise. The problem was that its insanely difficult to do
               | non-linear interactions between photons (which is
               | necessary to do any sort of non-trivial classical or
               | quantum computing with photons). In 2001, somebody came
               | up with a clever way of doing non-linear interactions by
               | using fast detectors.
               | 
               | * Huge efforts started to try and build photonic quantum
               | computers. Unfortunately, around 2004-05, people started
               | to do estimates and it turned out that the number of
               | sources and detectors needed with the clever way was
               | humongous. Far more than we could hope to achieve, and
               | there didn't seem to be any way of reducing it. People
               | abandoned photonic quantum computing and started doing
               | ion traps and superconducting.
               | 
               | * Interestingly around the same time in 2005, there
               | emerged an alternate method of building photonic quantum
               | computers, based on "cluster states". However, the method
               | also had the same humongous resource problem, but it had
               | an advantage: the framework could be modified and played
               | with to improve it. Over the next two decades, very
               | slowly people figured out improvement after improvement
               | to this architecture to bring down the resource costs.
               | 
               | * At this point, this cluster-state photonic architecture
               | has improved quite a bit and is starting to become very
               | competitive with ion traps and superconducting qubits.
               | PsiQuantum (whose article I shared above) is the leader
               | in this right now. And they might win the race.
        
               | alpineidyll3 wrote:
               | Yes, but all existing photonic platforms use post-
               | selection which is even more clearly exponentially lossy.
               | Although this could be solved with a deterministic single
               | photo source if one can be found. Photonic quantum
               | computing is an especially funny post-transistor paradigm
               | because classical photonic computing is also quite
               | attractive.
        
               | abdullahkhalids wrote:
               | If you read the linked article, it explains how to avoid
               | exponential loss on post-selection.
               | 
               | > Imagine you can toss coins, and you need to generate 20
               | coins showing Heads. If you repeatedly toss all 20 coins
               | simultaneously until they all come up heads you'd
               | typically have to do so millions of times before you
               | succeed. This is even more true if each coin also has a
               | 20% chance of rolling off the table (akin to photon
               | loss). But if you can toss 20 coins, set aside (switch
               | out!) the ones that came up heads and re-toss the others,
               | then after only a small number of steps you will have 20
               | coins all showing heads. This large gap is fundamentally
               | why the first whammy is not relevant: To generate a large
               | photonic entangled state we begin by probabilistically
               | attempting to generate a bunch of small ones. We then
               | select out the success (multiplexing) and combine
               | successes to (again, probabilistically) generate a
               | slightly larger entangled state. We repeat a few steps of
               | this. This possibility has been appreciated for more than
               | twenty years, but hasn't been done at scale yet because
               | nobody has had a good enough optical switch until now.
        
               | alpineidyll3 wrote:
               | Haha a self promotional blog post without any
               | experimental data from a lab self-interested in the
               | technology is somehow not persuasive to me.
               | 
               | There is no way to add entangled particles to an
               | entangled photon state without new light matter
               | interaction which may (and almost certainly) bring
               | decoherence.
               | 
               | Ie to claim a good enough switch is possible is a claim
               | demanding a ton of evidence, and there is none right now.
               | 
               | Ofc I would be thrilled to see it work! But explaining a
               | scheme in back of the envelope fashion and measuring it
               | are two vastly diff things.
        
           | laxd wrote:
           | > ... quantum computers are really early in their development
           | and can't do the more complicated things yet. It's like if we
           | had calculators that took an hour to do each arithmetic
           | operation ...
           | 
           | Reminds me of the story George Stibitz tells after developing
           | one of the first devices that could be called a computer.
           | Management at Bell Labs was not impressed that he had built a
           | "20000 dollar calculator".
           | 
           | https://youtu.be/qundvme1Tik?t=259
        
         | fnordpiglet wrote:
         | It's a milestone on a roadmap. Science like this doesn't happen
         | in eureka moments - it's a methodical slog through our
         | ignorance where we latch in wins bit by bit over decades.
         | Quantum computing, AI, fusion, curing cancer, ending aging,
         | they're pinnacle achievements at the extended play of
         | Civilization.
        
         | mistermann wrote:
         | A potential hidden bonus: if quantum computing theories get
         | enough attention, maybe people will start to consider using the
         | quantum computing abilities of the human mind with conscious
         | intentionality (since by the time we get computers to be able
         | to do it, it may be too late)!
        
           | wholinator2 wrote:
           | What are these capabilities of which you speak? Or have i
           | missed the sarcasm
        
             | acheron wrote:
             | I'm guessing he's referring to the Roger Penrose stuff --
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Mind ,
             | etc.
        
             | kelseyfrog wrote:
             | In many other worlds gp got tremendous karma for their
             | post. That's how quantum mental abilities work.
        
               | ithkuil wrote:
               | Do you mean; Use a quantum random number generator and
               | emit random words. Changes are that in some world the
               | comment is insightful?
        
             | mistermann wrote:
             | Well, generate reality for one. It's not a trivial detail,
             | but it tends to be dismissed or taken for granted (or
             | downvoted lol).
             | 
             | Someone may venture into this territory some day, and
             | perhaps that someone will find some travelling companions
             | to make the journey more exciting and productive....time
             | will tell!
        
               | weard_beard wrote:
               | The trick is you can only flip as yet unobserved bits. If
               | we know the asteroid is coming we can't delete it.
        
               | mistermann wrote:
               | Some bits can even be flipped in broad daylight while
               | everyone's watching. One of the most popular ways to flip
               | bits _is by telling stories_ in which the bits have been
               | flipped.
        
               | flangola7 wrote:
               | Generate reality? I am not crystal clear on what you're
               | talking about. Quantum computers are still just
               | computers, not magical replicators from Star Trek.
        
               | mistermann wrote:
               | I'm talking about the mind's ability to generate what
               | "is", and "is not". It is a curso no doubt, but it is
               | also sometimes a blessing. But usually it runs unnoticed
               | (or even: _denied_ ) in the background, duffing things
               | up.
               | 
               | And when it gets noticed, sometimes really weird things
               | happen.
        
         | wouldbecouldbe wrote:
         | Quantum computing feels like nucleair fusion. Been hearing
         | about how its going to change the world since I was kid.
        
           | hedora wrote:
           | Well, in fairness, I could say the same about solar, improved
           | batteries, etc.
        
             | marricks wrote:
             | > solar, improved batteries
             | 
             | Neither of those sounded as sexy (i.e hyped) to me a
             | nuclear fusion and quantum computers.
        
               | imchillyb wrote:
               | > solar, improved batteries
               | 
               | >> Neither of those sounded as sexy (i.e hyped) to me a
               | nuclear fusion and quantum computers.
               | 
               | Breaking News: The Gates Foundation has actually deployed
               | a product -- Solary!
               | 
               | Meet Solary, The Gates Foundation replacement for
               | salaries and a new way to power your entire home. This
               | $1,000 (price pending review) device can provide a multi-
               | family, multi-story, dwelling with power for 100 years.
               | The software called Solary GoFY (possibly a subscription
               | service) serves as a full and complete monitoring
               | solution for the premises!
               | 
               | --
               | 
               | See, solar can be sexy!
        
             | skywhopper wrote:
             | Solar has become incredibly inexpensive in the last decade,
             | and batteries likewise are many times better than they were
             | 20 years ago. Is there further to go, yes, but progress has
             | been steady and real applications are all around you for
             | both. Our phones are marvels of battery technology that was
             | impossible 15 years ago.
             | 
             | Fusion and quantum computing on the other hand. Neither has
             | yet solved one problem or made net progress. They have
             | great promise but the practicalities may ultimately
             | outweigh the benefits. Meanwhile, solar-charged batteries
             | powering high performance electric cars are more common
             | every day.
        
           | imchillyb wrote:
           | Quantum computing has been just as sexy a topic as stable
           | fusion.
           | 
           | Those were/are goalposts. We've never actually /seen/ the
           | goal though, and the posts are a collective hallucination. It
           | IS a pretty nice hallucination though.
           | 
           | Since we as a species don't quite understand quantum
           | interactions, it could be quite some time before we can build
           | ordered and predictable systems out of those interactions.
           | 
           | It could take days/weeks/months/years/decades/millennium...
           | who knows? The fun is in watching and playing.
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | oldgradstudent wrote:
       | I'm sure it's faster than simulation, but in what sense is this a
       | computer and in what sense is that a computation?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | sporkl wrote:
       | I don't remember the details, but the reason the 2019 paper was
       | challenged was because Google did not take into account quantum
       | simulation optimization techniques when estimating how long the
       | computation would run on classical computers. I wouldn't be
       | surprised if there's a similar situation here, where unconsidered
       | optimizations prevent this from being quantum advantage.
        
         | klyrs wrote:
         | As I recall, they did not take the error rate into account. The
         | result was dashed by somebody looking at their error rate and
         | saying "we can compute that distribution to within 5%* with a
         | classical computer." One would hope that they learned from
         | this, but historically, supremacy claims have been rather
         | short-lived.
         | 
         | * number pulled out of a hat
        
         | oldgradstudent wrote:
         | The main challenge for the Google quantum supremacy result was
         | that calling it a computer or what it does a computation never
         | made any sense.
        
       | mikewarot wrote:
       | The cited paper[1] references "random circuit sampling" which is
       | defined in [2] which then gets so heavy into abstract math, and I
       | give up.
       | 
       | Can someone explain this in terms an EE or programmer can
       | understand?
       | 
       | [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.11119
       | 
       | [2] https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.07872
        
         | B1FF_PSUVM wrote:
         | > references "random circuit sampling"
         | 
         | It's either Monte Carlo or bullshit.
        
           | canadianfella wrote:
           | [dead]
        
         | OkayPhysicist wrote:
         | [2] is actually a phenomenally easy read for a physics paper,
         | but it does assume an undergraduate physics degree's level of
         | background.
         | 
         | First, it's important to know that a quantum state (written as
         | |letter>) is not directly observable. We can think of it as
         | some vector, for which we can only apply an operation to to get
         | out a scalar observable.
         | 
         | A quantum circuit is a series of operations on a quantum state
         | to create a different quantum state, which can be modeled as a
         | matrix U, which is unitary (meaning U*U=1).
         | 
         | The goal of "sampling a random quantum circuit" is trying to
         | find the probability of observing some given observable if you
         | keep applying random quantum circuits to a given input state.
        
         | pclmulqdq wrote:
         | > Can someone explain this in terms an EE or programmer can
         | understand?
         | 
         | Unfortunately not. The physicists who are behind quantum
         | computing don't think the same way, and go straight for the
         | abstract math to solve any problem. I am pretty sure they don't
         | understand that most of our progress on computing up to this
         | point is _because_ you don 't need to go into Galois fields or
         | discrete math to describe what a computer or algorithm does.
         | I'm also pretty sure that they don't know of another way to
         | think about it.
        
           | OkayPhysicist wrote:
           | The second paper shared by the GP is actually just about as
           | dumbed down as you can feasible get. The problem is that A)
           | it uses some basic jargon, because it's fair to assume the
           | only people interested in the result are people who
           | understand the jargon and B) it's describing a completely
           | impractical problem, designed to maximize the difference in
           | performance between a quantum and classical computer rather
           | than do anything particularly useful.
        
         | swframe2 wrote:
         | (I don't have a background (or interest) in quantum computing)
         | I've tried some of the "chat with pdf" websites for other
         | topics. It seems like they could help you understand the paper.
         | If you give it a try, could you report back here on how it
         | worked for you.
        
         | pyentropy wrote:
         | Are you familiar with logic circuits (those made of gates like
         | AND, OR, XOR, NAND)? Just like they are the founding blocks of
         | classical computers, the founding block of quantum computers
         | are quantum circuits.
         | 
         | Quantum circuits are made of quantum logic gates like Hadamard,
         | CNOT, Z, CZ, etc. Instead of bits as inputs and outputs,
         | quantum logic gates have qubits. Unlike boolean logic where
         | bits are 0 and 1, a qubit is a 2D vector [a b] where a and b
         | are complex numbers, corresponding to a superposition of the
         | zero and one bases: a * |0> + b * |1>. You can visualise a
         | qubit as a point on a sphere, the so called Bloch sphere [1]
         | 
         | There are multiple ways to implement a qubit, but you need to
         | start with some quantum phenomenon. An example is the
         | polarisation of a photon, so horizontal could be |0> and
         | vertical polarisation could be |1> and the qubit is represented
         | as complex vector of these two. If you've studied linear
         | algebra you know manipulating a vector often involves linear
         | transformations. Any linear transformation can be represented
         | as a matrix - so applying gates is just doing matrix
         | multiplication. Unary gates are 2x2 matrices and binary gates
         | are 4x4 matrices - for photons they would be implemented with
         | mirrors and optical waveplates. Measuring the polarisation at
         | the end is the output. The output is not deterministic but it
         | always follows the same distribution, so you could design a
         | circuit that has |001> X% of the time, |010> Y%, |111> Z% of
         | the time, etc. such that X + Y + Z + .. = 100%.
         | 
         | I'm not too familiar with the details of random circuit
         | sampling, but the idea is that you start with a big circuit
         | that wasn't intentionally designed and therefore has no known
         | properties we can exploit - instead it's a random mess of
         | transformations to the qubits. A classical computer cannot run
         | big quantum circuits - N gates with the 49 Google qubits
         | requires like 2^49 * N^3 classical gates, so it won't be able
         | to calculate the output distribution. However, what we can do
         | is run the quantum circuit many times (do measurements on the
         | quantum computer) and collect many samples. Given enough
         | samples, a classical computer can verify whether there's
         | consistency between them and whether an actual transformation
         | produced them (and therefore quantum computation happened) or
         | its just pure noise / garbage using cross entropy benchmarks
         | [2].
         | 
         | Note that the purpose of the "random" in the random circuit is
         | to introduce hardness and prevent cheating (assume that the
         | classical computer is the "opponent" of the quantum computer);
         | the circuits don't calculate anything useful / of human value.
         | 
         | What's interesting is that once people with supercomputers saw
         | the benchmark formula and analysed the constant factors, they
         | found a loophole which let them run a classical algorithm which
         | generates measurements/samples that satisfy the benchmark with
         | 40K classical CPUs for a week, or even a single A100 within 140
         | days. Some of their success was due to the sheer power
         | available and some is due to algorithmic cleverness (see:
         | tensor networks). In my opinion, they are only disproving the
         | Sycamore supremacy in a fussy way.
         | 
         | [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloch_sphere
         | 
         | [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-entropy_benchmarking
        
         | knorker wrote:
         | Like reddit's ELI5 (explain it like I'm five), but ELIHAM
         | (explain it like I (only) have a masters)?
         | 
         | Yeah, if someone could please do that.
        
         | bob1029 wrote:
         | > The theoretical basis for these experiments depends on
         | sampling the output distributions of random quantum circuits;
         | unfortunately, understanding how this theoretical basis can be
         | used to define quantum supremacy is an extremely difficult
         | task. Anyone attempting to understand how this sampling task
         | relates to quantum supremacy must study concepts from random
         | matrix theory, mathematical analysis, quantum chaos,
         | computational complexity, and probability theory. Resources
         | connecting these concepts in the context of quantum supremacy
         | are scattered and often difficult to find.
         | 
         | At the end of the day, people writing these papers are also
         | human. The very same sorts of humans who pad resumes with shiny
         | technology and self-serving complexity.
         | 
         | This might be a case of a rabbit you do not want to chase.
        
           | Gravyness wrote:
           | > This might be a case of a rabbit you do not want to chase.
           | 
           | I'm sure the researchers will all collectively realize this,
           | if it were to be the case, and disregard their 12 year
           | academic journey with their great salaries in favor of
           | research into more important topics like world hunger,
           | renewable energy, etc.
           | 
           | I'm so sure that the percentage of sureness is an imaginary,
           | quantum-entangled value between -7 and 13 billion percent.
        
             | junon wrote:
             | "academic journey" and "great salaries" generally don't go
             | together.
        
       | DLA wrote:
       | Can anyone recommend a few videos, papers, or books that "start
       | at the beginning" for how quantum computing works--the physics
       | parts like entanglement. I'm a computer scientist, so I'm good
       | with the algorithm/programming aspects. Should I start with
       | quantum annealing? Ideally I guess I'd like some pointers to good
       | approachable resources on the ways qubits are made, maintained,
       | written to and read from--start me off at the quantum version of
       | the transistor. Thanks HN.
        
       | deepburner wrote:
       | Quantum Computing/Information researcher here. This article is
       | largely garbage, the original (~2 month old) paper is
       | surprisingly readable [0] and I suggest you to check it out.
       | Here's my $0.02: The efforts of the Google team is commendable in
       | that they're trying to squeeze as much out of their noisy systems
       | as possible until error correction is here (they need to, to
       | justify their existence after all) and they are aware of the
       | shortcomings of the paradigm. But personally I don't see anything
       | useful coming out until error correction and number of qubits are
       | improved many orders of magnitude to have fault tolerant QC. The
       | jury is still out on their utility once realized; Shor's
       | algorithm is an obvious one followed by quantum simulation
       | algorithms that might benefit chemistry and fundamental physics,
       | but it's not as big of a silver bullet as we thought before for
       | simulation. Maybe someone can tell me what fast prime
       | factorization is good for besides breaking encryption.
       | 
       | Also IBM released a paper[1] recently making similar claims
       | ("quantum advantage without complete error correction") which got
       | obliterated by 2 back to back papers [2,3] that did what they did
       | for much cheaper on a classical computer.
       | 
       | [0]: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.11119.pdf
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06096-3
       | 
       | [2]: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.14887.pdf
       | 
       | [3]: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.16372.pdf
        
         | imchillyb wrote:
         | > I don't see anything useful coming out until error correction
         | and number of qubits are improved many orders of magnitude to
         | have fault tolerant QC.
         | 
         | Error correction and control are vital for any system to be
         | reliable.
         | 
         | Thankfully the ability to run simultaneously and vet against
         | multiple outputs should overcome this fault for a time.
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | the best thing about watching the entire quantum computing
         | debacle is every time somebody says their QC does something
         | faster than a classical computer, somebody tunes the classical
         | computer to beat the QC. Combined with the fact that chip
         | infrastructure is already paid for and there is a large market
         | to enable economy of scale, coupled with the lack of true
         | problems where exponentially better problem solving is critical
         | to business or military success, means we're going to see a
         | series of QC claims that really just prop up classical
         | computers for some time.
         | 
         | (I used to work in supercomputing and chemistry and await the
         | day we have useful QCs doing simulation better than what we can
         | do on supercomputers)
        
         | shawabawa3 wrote:
         | > Maybe someone can tell me what fast prime factorization is
         | good for besides breaking encryption.
         | 
         | Maybe someone can tell me what alchemy is good for besides
         | turning lead into gold?
        
           | Retric wrote:
           | Prime factorization only breaks a subset of crypto
           | algorithms, it's not that useful or game changing alone.
        
           | NooneAtAll3 wrote:
           | considering that the world is transitioning to post-quantum
           | crypto... everyone moved from gold to digital currencies,
           | pretty much
        
         | avsteele wrote:
         | Grover's algorithm seems quite useful, though I'd guess it
         | requires an enormous number of qubits (large unordered
         | database) to be useful.
        
         | zerodensity wrote:
         | Questing regarding error correction and logical qbits. From my
         | very limited understanding logical qbits could mitigate some of
         | the error but uses multiple physical qbits for every logical
         | qbits. Has anyone created a quantum computer that has logical
         | qbits? Say a small one with 16 physical 4 logical qbits quantum
         | computer, or similar.
        
         | klyrs wrote:
         | > Maybe someone can tell me what fast prime factorization is
         | good for besides breaking encryption.
         | 
         | That untapped market of trillionaire hobby number theorists?
        
       | squarefoot wrote:
       | I know nothing about quantum computing, but when I read "does X
       | instantly when rivals need 47 years", I immediately think about
       | it being abused for brute forcing passwords and encryption keys.
       | Would it be possible?
        
         | kouru225 wrote:
         | Government institutions have already been instructed to start
         | using quantum computer safe encryption algorithms.
         | Internationally, governments have been storing tons of
         | encrypted data that they can't currently decrypt because they
         | expect to be able to decrypt it soon using quantum computers.
         | 
         | There are already quantum computer safe encryption algorithms
         | that have been released to the public. I don't know exactly how
         | they work, but one of them was about reverse engineering a path
         | through multi-dimensional space.
         | 
         | Expect SHA256 to disappear soon and be replaced.
        
           | return_to_monke wrote:
           | sha256 is a hash algo. you probably meant something else?
        
             | kouru225 wrote:
             | Yea. I think maybe this is what happens when I read
             | something I don't fully understand but want to share the
             | info. I think they're switching their encryption algorithms
             | and also they were looking into how quantum computing
             | affects SHA256. Would have to find the article I was
             | reading.
        
         | EGreg wrote:
         | Why are you being downvotdx? We need to have way more
         | discussion about this. The answer is -- no one knows. In fact
         | even classical computer algos might soon break modern crypto,
         | especially Elliptic Curve crypto.
        
         | Arch485 wrote:
         | Not yet!
        
       | snowstormsun wrote:
       | Does someone know for reference how big of a number that computer
       | can factor? Or some other complex problem that is not highly
       | theoretical...
        
         | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
         | Roughly 15 (all current attempts to factor bigger numbers cheat
         | in various ways). The basic problem is that you need at least a
         | thousand qbits to do anything remotely resembling useful
         | (especially if you need any error correction).
        
       | mabbo wrote:
       | I feel like quantum computing is one of those technologies that
       | is going to be a lot of hype and excitement by researchers, but
       | no real applications and no real impact to the general public.
       | 
       | ... Until the day that it does.
       | 
       | And then, a lot of very interesting things will happen very
       | quickly, and the world will change massively.
        
       | pastelsky wrote:
       | If I understand correctly, the limited amount of "expressiveness"
       | a quantum computer has restricts its ability to solve useful
       | problems.
       | 
       | Couldn't you simply express useful problems as a function of
       | problems that the quantum computer can already solve? Doing so
       | might be extremely in-efficient, but give that there's so much
       | performance leeway, it still might end up being similar to super
       | computers of today?
        
       | bradley13 wrote:
       | Seems like more of what we've seen: a quantum system is really
       | good at...simulating a quantum system. Water us wet, whoopie.
        
       | hgl wrote:
       | I wonder if Google is Xerox of our era, developing promising
       | technologies only to be made practical and commercialized by
       | other entities? Transformer is one example. Not sure if recent
       | advancement in quantum computing is another.
        
       | taeric wrote:
       | "This is a very nice demonstration of quantum advantage. While a
       | great achievement academically, the algorithm used does not
       | really have real world practical applications, though." Not
       | having real world applications is not necessarily damning, of
       | course. Curious to know what implications this has for general
       | algorithms. Reading this, it almost makes it sound like there
       | will be some algorithms that quantum is better at and that they
       | won't necessarily be the same algorithms that "classical"
       | computing uses.
        
         | jfengel wrote:
         | Quantum computing is not a competitor for general computing. It
         | solves certain categories of problems much faster, but not most
         | of them.
         | 
         | In fact, nobody yet really knows what those problems are. There
         | are a few real-world problems that quantum computers could
         | theoretically help with, like factoring large numbers, but
         | nobody is really all that close to implementing them. There are
         | problems that can be implemented, like this one, but they are
         | of no use whatsoever. They just happen to be feasible to
         | implement.
         | 
         | The implementation does suggest that they're building up a
         | toolbox of physical parts that could some day (years, less than
         | decades) be used on real-world problems. The class of such
         | problems appears very small so far, but there is reason to
         | think that we could find other problems that matter. (For
         | example, in the realm of AI, which is very compute-intensive --
         | though thus far nobody seems to have any specific
         | implementation.)
         | 
         | Think of a quantum computer as a magic box on the side that
         | solves a few problems. If you had it, you might completely
         | reconsider what kinds of problems you want to solve. Solving it
         | via the magic box might require a complete reconsideration of
         | how you frame the question -- like discovering a wormhole that
         | lets you get from Atlanta to Seattle instantly, so how would
         | you redesign a trip from New York to LA?
        
         | OkayPhysicist wrote:
         | > It almost makes it sound like there will be some algorithms
         | that quantum is better at and that they won't necessarily be
         | the same algorithms that "classical" computing uses.
         | 
         | This is exactly correct. While you can simulate classical
         | computations on a quantum computer, it doesn't make a lot of
         | sense to. However, there exists a class of problems for which
         | there exist solutions that have lower time complexities than
         | anything we can run on a classical computer, if only we had a
         | quantum computer of sufficient size.
         | 
         | Examples of such algorithms are the famous two, Shor's and
         | Grover's algorithms, of which Shor's is more interesting
         | because it factors integers in polynomial time whereas the best
         | known classical algorithm runs in exponential time (this is the
         | one that's scary for cryptography). Grover's algorithm is
         | basically function inversion (find the x given a function f and
         | some desired value y such that f(x)=y) in O(sqrt(N)) over the
         | domain of the function, which on a classical computer requires
         | O(N) operations.
         | 
         | Those were discovered in the 90's, so they're pretty widely
         | understood by now. There's a few newer ones, such as the
         | quantum algorithm for linear systems of equations, which solves
         | for a scalar result of an operation applied to the unknown
         | vector x such that Ax=b in O(log(N)k^2) time versus the
         | classical O(nk), where n is the number of matrix elements and k
         | is a measure of how sensitive to error the problem is.
         | 
         | Basically, there's a handful of useful algorithms, and another
         | dozen or so theoretically interesting ones, that can run faster
         | on a quantum computer. For everything else, there's zero
         | advantage to using one.
        
         | dwheeler wrote:
         | The real question to me, is how it will take to get more
         | (useful) qubits.
        
         | knorker wrote:
         | My understanding is that quantum computers only have two real
         | use cases, as of today:
         | 
         | 1. Breaking crypto. 2. Simulating _other_ quantum systems.
         | 
         | For (1) it's basically all downsides. For (2) unless you're a
         | particle phycisist you'll never need quantum computers.
         | 
         | But that's now. Maybe there will be a killer app for it some
         | day, changing everything. Or indeed, we could get it
         | indirectly. Maybe simulating quantum systems we could invent
         | new battery technologies, which in turn changes our lives.
        
           | esrauch wrote:
           | If it is able to break crypto then surely that means it can
           | do other "interesting" mathematical calculations that are
           | currently extremely slow/hard though?
        
             | olliej wrote:
             | Nope.
             | 
             | QC allows a very specific attack that breaks the main
             | asymmetric algorithms today, ECC and RSA - there is no
             | meaningful attack on anything else (Grover's algorithm is
             | technically a sqrt improvement on symmetric algorithms but
             | that isn't close to breaking AES256).
             | 
             | There's nothing general purpose in the attack on RSA and
             | ECC: you can use the quantum Fourier transform to find the
             | period of the key, and that period tells you the key. But
             | this is very specific - you have two algorithms that have
             | inherently periodic behavior, where the period is meant to
             | be secret, and so all you need from the QC is the period.
             | 
             | It's hard to see how to extend that to other problems.
             | 
             | I'm more curious about (and kind of wish more emphasis
             | would be made on) programmable analog computers, which is
             | what it seems QC should be capable of. A lot of the
             | difficult with QC is that people seem really fixated on
             | discrete problems (like factoring \o/) where there's a
             | single correct answer, and so huge amounts of effort and
             | research are going into error correction, etc. There are
             | lots of problems (simulations as in this circuit), where
             | the classical solution simply requires running millions of
             | times with random variance to converge on a sufficiently
             | accurate result where a QC would theoretically be great.
             | The general use problem in that case becomes "how do I
             | convert this classical problem into a QC compatible
             | algorithm".
        
             | arcticbull wrote:
             | So far, to my knowledge, not faster than a classical
             | system. We've been searching for decades for a problem with
             | a better quantum solution than a classical solution, and
             | it's been a tough slog. These are, at least thus far and
             | from my limited perspective, very special-purpose
             | accelerators. Shor's algorithm is the one thing that comes
             | to mind tbh.
             | 
             | "Breaking crypto" in this case isn't anything other than
             | finding prime factors of an integer.
        
             | hannob wrote:
             | That's not all that clear.
             | 
             | The problems QCs could solve regarding crypto are from
             | number theory. That's basically a branch of math that
             | doesn't really describe any real-world stuff. Cryptography
             | is as far as I know the only practical application of that
             | stuff.
             | 
             | I couldn't think of any implication of "being able to
             | factor large numbers quickly" or "calculating discrete
             | logarithms quickly" that does not relate to cryptography.
             | But I'd be curious if others think these would have any
             | implications beyond "we'll have to get new algorithms into
             | our cryptography".
        
             | knorker wrote:
             | Possibly. This is way beyond my knowledge.
             | 
             | But I'm not aware of many other "search this finite part of
             | the number line for this property", where "this finite
             | part" is still too big for classical computers.
             | 
             | It almost sounds like quantum computers are tailor made for
             | the types of problems we've been building cryptosystems on.
             | 
             | But maybe this is not all quantum computers will be able to
             | do. I couldn't even explain exactly how they apply to
             | simulations of quantum systems, but have only taken more
             | knowledgeable people at their word.
        
               | taeric wrote:
               | "Search this finite part of a number line" is probably
               | fairly accurate in describing many Mixed Integer
               | Programming (MIP) techniques. Such that, if you do get a
               | breakthrough at that, you may see larger advances in
               | optimization.
        
               | dotnet00 wrote:
               | Exactly, ML is a potentially very valuable task for more
               | mature quantum computers due to the ability to perform
               | much more powerful searches than what we have to accept
               | on classical computers.
        
           | staunton wrote:
           | (2) can be very relevant to material science and chemistry.
           | Those things have huge ranges of important practical
           | applications.
           | 
           | For example, people currently struggle to do accurate
           | calculations of the band structures of materials and it
           | doesn't look like there will be much progress there using
           | only classical computers (using more computing power or
           | better approximation tricks). Big enough quantum computers
           | could do this. Band structure calculations are very
           | interesting for pretty much all semiconductor development.
        
             | knorker wrote:
             | Indeed. That's what I meant by my example of indirect
             | benefit.
             | 
             | Simulating physical systems better, faster, and more
             | completely, can have many practical applications.
             | 
             | But unless you're already today trying to simulate physical
             | systems like that, then QC probably won't help you one bit.
        
           | jfindley wrote:
           | I think there are some other areas where qc is likely to
           | deliver better results than classical computers beyond these
           | two. Modelling turblent flows is one such example. They
           | certainly aren't common, but I think this overstates the case
           | somewhat.
        
           | pyrale wrote:
           | Basically, quantum computers can solve problems of the BQP
           | class in a time that is a polynomial function of input size.
           | These same problems, on a traditional computer, can take
           | exponential time.
           | 
           | It is hard to tell with certainty what can be done with
           | quantum computers, but having powerful quantum computers will
           | certainly open new fields of research, like trying to figure
           | out if quantum algorithms for NP-class problems have better
           | complexity than classical algorithms. Simply finding
           | subexponential algorithms for problems that would have
           | required exponential time on a traditional computer, may
           | prove valuable.
           | 
           | Basically, outside of the immediately available problems,
           | this opens up an entirely new complexity class from which to
           | attempt to crack other classes of complexity. Trying to break
           | NP-problems with turing machines, if not successful in an
           | academic sense, has proved immensely valuable and profitable.
           | By getting another architecture, we get a shot at similar
           | breakthroughs.
        
             | knorker wrote:
             | This is so extremely well put that I want to reply just to
             | highlight it.
             | 
             | What you said was the optimist view, that there's a world
             | of possibilities. It's just that at the moment we just have
             | the two I mentioned.
             | 
             | Maybe there's much more, and if we build it (the hardware),
             | they (the algorithms) will come.
             | 
             | But for now really just the two. AFAIK.
        
       | gigel82 wrote:
       | So it can generate lots of random numbers very fast... cool. /s
        
       | sixQuarks wrote:
       | Imagine trying to explain this article to a caveman, or even
       | someone from 200 years ago.
        
       | moonshadow565 wrote:
       | How exactly does this make their search engine better?
        
       | fsh wrote:
       | Google's and IBM's previous "quantum supremacy" demonstrations
       | were quickly crushed by improved classical simulations. Let's see
       | if it survives this time.
        
         | lbourdages wrote:
         | The main issue I had with their demonstrations were that the
         | problems they chose were essentially "let's show that a quantum
         | computer is better at being a quantum computer than a classical
         | computer". Obviously they are, just like I'm better at being a
         | human than ChatGPT is.
         | 
         | I'm not saying they suck, but to proclaim that "quantum
         | computers are superior" you need an actual use-case, IMO.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | refulgentis wrote:
           | It's absolutely non-obvious, I'm dead serious. As far as I've
           | understood keeping up over the years, there's a credible
           | argument from a respected academic in the QC community that
           | quantum computing is impossible.
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | it's not impossible (from a theoretical, and possibly
             | physical perspective) but it's likely that there are no
             | problems which would motivate the necessary investment to
             | demonstrate a QC doing something useful which we couldn't
             | also do in reasonable time on a classical supercomputer.
             | 
             | Kind of like fusors: sure, you can do nuclear fusion in
             | your garage but you're putting in far more energy than you
             | are generating.
        
             | lbourdages wrote:
             | Do you have a link handy? You've piqued my curiosity!
        
               | refulgentis wrote:
               | Here's an exhaustive covering:
               | https://www.scottaaronson.com/democritus/lec14.html
               | 
               | I would have picked it up in bits and pieces from blogs
               | over years, here's an attempt to render that useful that
               | is surely nitpickable:
               | 
               | TL;DR: there's two types of caring about Google's claims
               | of quantum supremacy:
               | 
               | 1. HN tends to assume these articles are about
               | breakthrough in _product usefulness_ and then tsk tsk
               | about lack of impact. c.f. top comment currently gravely
               | noting after reading the paper, its too noisy and a long
               | way off.
               | 
               | 2. The papers are about demonstrating _there is quantum
               | computing at all_, the interest in the people in the know
               | is about settling that question, the raw strongman feat
               | isn't particularly interesting.
        
               | nier wrote:
               | From the article linked by parent:
               | 
               | <<To summarize, I think that arguing with skeptics is not
               | only amusing but extremely useful. It could be that
               | quantum computing is impossible for some fundamental
               | reason. So far, though, I haven't seen an argument that's
               | engaged me in a really nontrivial way.>>
               | 
               | <<Very little of what we do in theoretical computer
               | science is directly connected to a practical application.
               | That's just not what we're trying to do. Of course, what
               | we do has applications, but indirectly. We're trying to
               | understand computation. If you take that as our goal,
               | then it seems clear that starting from the best physical
               | theories we have is a valuable activity. If you want to
               | ask a different question, such as what we can do in the
               | next five to ten years, then, that's fine. Just make it
               | clear that's what you're doing.>>
        
               | refulgentis wrote:
               | This shouldn't leave anyone with the impression they are
               | cranks. Scott's claim in this lecture is he hasn't yet
               | found making a counter argument "really nontrivial"
               | 
               | To wit, the article names Leonid Levin and Oded Goldreich
               | as the primary skeptics.
               | 
               | Leonid has 10K citations, 2012 Knuth Prize, 37 h-index.
               | 
               | Oded has 63K citations, 2017 Knuth Prize, 95 h-index.
               | 
               | What Scott Aaronson considers "really nontrivial" is far
               | beyond our comprehension, and he's making a claim about
               | synthesizing an counterargument, not settling the entire
               | argument.
        
         | dataflow wrote:
         | Would you have any links handy for those?
        
       | superposeur wrote:
       | Do you know if there are any arguments in the literature to the
       | effect that actually useful quantum supremacy may never be
       | possible in principle (not merely in practice)?
       | 
       | What I mean is: decoherence with environment must be held at bay
       | long enough for the final answer to appear in the qubits with
       | high probability. Based on examples from thermodynamics (such as
       | impossibility of extracting useful work from a heat reservoir
       | without a second, lower-temperature reservoir into which to dump
       | heat), I could imagine a scenario where decoherence would always
       | foil the computation at some point, perhaps at some intermediate
       | time or in the final measurement. In particular examples, this
       | would show up as irksome experimental limitations, but in fact
       | these limitations would all stem from a deeper prohibition. And
       | to the extent that decoherence could be managed (such as in the
       | cited experiment), the resulting computation would not be
       | "useful".
        
       | dataflow wrote:
       | Dumb question:
       | 
       | Say I have a wooden stick and I break it in half in less than a
       | second. Assume a computer would need several minutes to simulate
       | everything that would've happened in the stick. I clearly got the
       | output faster than a computer (and with more precision), so does
       | this imply I'm doing anything particularly fascinating?
       | 
       | I assume the same scenario is possible to concoct for a quantum
       | computer. I assume it wouldn't be particularly interesting
       | either. So what are the criteria for distinguishing those
       | scenarios from the "interesting" cases? And how do we know which
       | case this one is like?
        
         | mistermann wrote:
         | I wouldn't think so in the case of a stick breaking, but if you
         | consider a more realistic scenario like running a risk analysis
         | across a hyperdimensional problem space, there is certainly
         | something extremely interesting going on there.
        
         | D4ckard wrote:
         | You are right, basically anything can be viewed as a
         | computation. Ray Kurzweil discusses this extensively in his
         | book The Singularity is Near, building upon previous work by
         | Edward Fredkin.
         | 
         | > To appreciate the feasibility of computing with no energy and
         | no heat, consider the computation that takes place in an
         | ordinary rock. Although it may appear that nothing much is
         | going on inside a rock, the approximately 1025 (ten trillion
         | trillion) atoms in a kilogram of matter are actually extremely
         | active. Despite the apparent solidity of the object, the atoms
         | are all in motion, sharing electrons back and forth, changing
         | particle spins, and generating rapidly moving electromagnetic
         | fields. All of this activity represents computation, even if
         | not very meaningfully organized. (From The Singularity is Near
         | Chapter 3, The Limits of Computation)
        
         | bawolff wrote:
         | If you're in the stick making business and need to know how
         | sticks break, the yes.
        
         | aleksiy123 wrote:
         | If you need to measure a billion sticks breaking the simulation
         | might start to come out ahead in terms of cost.
         | 
         | I think this makes more sense if you use a bridge instead of a
         | stick.
         | 
         | Building a full sized bridge to test your idea is prohibitively
         | expensive but a simulation is cheaper to build even if the
         | actually simulation is slower to compute.
         | 
         | In real life simulations, small prototypes , and full size
         | prototypes are all useful with various trade-offs of cost and
         | benefits at various stages.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | knorker wrote:
         | If you can control your experiment perfectly, then you don't
         | need the simulation.
         | 
         | Now break the wooden stick in half while on the moon. In space.
         | At absolute zero. While under acceleration. While spinning.
         | While bombarding it with 10^100 neutrinos/second. And do it
         | with 100'000 randomized iterations of the wooden fibers.
        
         | Mizoguchi wrote:
         | I think a more fair comparison would be that you know how to
         | break the wooden stick so that you end up with one piece
         | measuring exactly 152 mm and you can repeat the feat every
         | single time with other wooden sticks of different dimensions
         | crafted from different trees under different environmental
         | conditions.
        
         | tedivm wrote:
         | I don't think this is a stupid question at all- it actually
         | touches on some pretty interesting topics. The human brain is
         | absolutely fascinating, in particular because it is extremely
         | energy efficient and fast at the tasks it does. The more we
         | learn and understand how the brain is working the more we'll be
         | able to improve a ton of computer science topics, from AI to
         | signals processing and a whole bunch more in between.
        
         | jabbany wrote:
         | One would be the direction of entropy. Breaking the stick is
         | not "particularly fascinating" because you're going in the
         | direction of increasing entropy. However, _putting it back
         | together_ is. In the simulation it takes no more effort to go
         | one way or the other, while you probably cannot put the stick
         | back together no matter how hard you tried.
         | 
         | A quantum question that is "interesting" would also be similar
         | to finding order out of disorder (e.g. factoring).
        
           | tedunangst wrote:
           | If I provide two model sticks to a physics simulation, it can
           | work out how to put them back together with no more effort
           | than it took to model the break?
           | 
           | Like I can model shooting a cannon ball out of a cannon and
           | it will tell me where it lands. Or I can model a cannon ball
           | sitting on the ground and it will tell me where the cannon
           | was?
        
             | jabbany wrote:
             | A hypothetical perfect simulation should be able to do it
             | both ways indeed!
             | 
             | However, the current consensus take of quantum uncertainty
             | means _if_ such a simulator exists, it cannot be of our
             | universe. Or, more likely, such a perfect simulator does
             | not exist.
             | 
             | Of course all of this is about a hypothetical of a
             | hypothetical at this point...
             | 
             | (This is the same problem as entropy (our current
             | understanding of it). We know it is increasing one-way
             | w.r.t. time, and we can imagine what it means to "reverse
             | entropy" and that there's nothing really theoretically
             | preventing that, but we can't build an actual machine to do
             | that.)
        
           | glompers wrote:
           | Nice comment
        
           | dataflow wrote:
           | I really love this comment -- it "feels" like the right
           | criterion -- but I guess I'm wondering what criteria (if any)
           | researchers _actually use_ right now. Do they have any
           | criteria for this?
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | > so does this imply I'm doing anything particularly
         | fascinating
         | 
         | If you mean "useful", then I'd like to point our that breaking
         | rods is a common task in many labs all over the world exactly
         | because it can calculate some things better than any non-rod
         | computer we have.
         | 
         | If you literally meant "fascinating", then you'd have to ask
         | yourself. For a lot of people, it is.
        
         | rcme wrote:
         | Did you really get the answer faster than a computer?or put
         | another way, what question did you answer? How much force was
         | applied to the stick before it broke? How fast was the stick
         | moving 0.04s after breakage? How much sound was produced? There
         | are thousands of questions you don't have answers to when you
         | simply break a stick.
        
           | Aperocky wrote:
           | I think that was his exact argument against quantum
           | computing.
        
             | ImPostingOnHN wrote:
             | seems more like an argument _for_ quantum computing
        
         | fnordpiglet wrote:
         | The key is things are interesting if they're interesting to
         | someone. The fact you can break a stick and observe in detail
         | in real time at a minute level better than a computer is very
         | interesting to many people. Botanists, biologists, material
         | scientists, architects, industrial engineers, etc. It's just
         | not interesting to you.
         | 
         | Likewise even contrived quantum experiments like this aren't
         | interesting to many people. They're not practical. But they're
         | profoundly interested to people interested in quantum
         | computing. They're milestones on a roadmap. There will and are
         | things computer computers won't do better than classical
         | computers and there are things in reality neither will
         | simulate, and those things are interesting to someone. In fact
         | I think this is a crucial part of basic science- EVERYTHING is
         | interesting. Even the lack of something interesting is
         | certainly interesting to a psychologist :-)
        
         | wuubuu wrote:
         | Not a dumb question!
         | 
         | There is a great video by the mathematician Richard Borcherds
         | on this exact objection to current examples of quantum
         | supremacy.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFhhQRxWTIM
        
           | dataflow wrote:
           | I love this video, thanks for sharing it. I'm watching it
           | right now and I think I'm going to refer to his "teapot
           | supremacy" from now on.
        
             | AlexCoventry wrote:
             | I declare AlexCoventry supremacy. No one can compute
             | AlexCoventry better than I can. :-)
        
               | pieter_mj wrote:
               | Wait until you see a GTP5 simulation of yourself.
        
             | tsimionescu wrote:
             | There is also an interesting response to that video from a
             | leading quantum computer scientist, Scott Aaronson:
             | 
             | https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=5460
             | 
             | He actually goes into significant details about your exact
             | question and proposes some resolutions. It's quite long and
             | I don't think I can do it justice in a TLDR so leaving the
             | link to speak for itself.
        
               | dataflow wrote:
               | Thanks for the link! I'll take a look.
               | 
               | Edit: I just read it and I don't feel like he really
               | answered the question. He had a rebuttal about being able
               | to freely specify parameters, but then his Facebook
               | friend addressed his rebuttal, to which he replies "this
               | is indeed more interesting"... which, well, it certainly
               | is, and also doesn't answer the question!
               | 
               | (Well, I guess he also mentions we should expect speedup
               | greater than Avogadro's number, which seems fair, but
               | clearly that's not the bar anyone is claiming to meet, so
               | it doesn't get us anywhere.)
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | It's like saying you can breathe, yet a computer might take a
         | long time to simulate every chemical process taking place in
         | your body in those 2 seconds of respiration.
        
         | zdragnar wrote:
         | The difference between you breaking a stick and the computer
         | modeling it is that you've measured nothing. You don't know,
         | with any precision, the amount of force you used, the rate the
         | stick broke at, how much mass remains in the two pieces and how
         | much was lost to splintering, etc.
         | 
         | In other words, assuming the computer model has sufficiently
         | accurate data as an input, it can produce significantly more
         | refined output than a human can through trial.
         | 
         | In fields where human trial is exceptionally inefficient-
         | molecular physics, chemical synthesis design, structural
         | material design, etc- a sufficiently fast computer will allow
         | for faster design iteration and perhaps even development of new
         | processes and materials.
         | 
         | More concretely, if you wanted to design a new stick that
         | breaks under exactly the conditions that you intend it to, then
         | you can skip a lot of trial and error if your computer can
         | accurately model the materials you are designing and testing.
         | 
         | Think construction, civil engineering, energetic chemistry,
         | biological processes (medicine design) etc.
        
           | dataflow wrote:
           | > You don't know, with any precision, the amount of force you
           | used, the rate the stick broke at, how much mass remains in
           | the two pieces and how much was lost to splintering, etc.
           | 
           | But I can measure those with a ruler and a scale. Both before
           | and after the breakage. Takes a few seconds, and I'd need to
           | do that before punching those numbers into the simulator
           | anyway. And I can be precise with where I apply the force,
           | etc. So I don't see how this gets to the point of the
           | question.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _I can literally measure those with a ruler and a scale_
             | 
             | You can't measure a number of internal stress-strain
             | conditions during the moment of failure. You can't repeat
             | the experiment with the same stick. The best way to get a
             | fast intuition for why the simulation is superior is to
             | take an entry-level CAD course with a focus on material
             | design.
        
               | dataflow wrote:
               | > The best way to get a fast intuition for why the
               | simulation is superior is to take an entry-level CAD
               | course with a focus on material design.
               | 
               | I'm sorry but you're completely missing the point of my
               | question. The question was not "what can simulations do
               | that experiments can't". My background in simulation is
               | not zero, and I've never had that question. The question
               | as something else entirely.
               | 
               | > You can't measure a number of internal stress-strain
               | conditions during the moment of failure
               | 
               | But what if that's _not_ what I 'm interested in
               | simulating or measuring? What if all I care about is
               | something easily measurable, like the length of each
               | remaining piece? Isn't that precisely my point here?
               | There are _so_ many things quantum computers can 't
               | compute either - yet we seem to be judging them by what
               | they're _really_ good at. Just like with the wooden
               | stick. So how do I tell if they 're the same sort of
               | scenario or not? What's the distinguishing criterion?
        
               | kelnos wrote:
               | > _What if all I care about is something easily
               | measurable, like the length of each remaining piece?_
               | 
               | If you're not just talking about the two large pieces,
               | but also the lengths of the small splintered pieces, I
               | suspect the computer is going to be a lot faster at
               | figuring that out than you will be manually measuring
               | them.
               | 
               | Your responses in this thread seem to be a bit
               | disingenuous: first you ask why a computer simulation
               | could be better than doing it manually, but then when
               | people tell you the things the computer can do
               | faster/better than you, you say "but what if I don't care
               | about that?" Well, duh, if you don't care about anything
               | but the most trivial things, the computer probably isn't
               | going to be of any benefit to you.
        
               | dataflow wrote:
               | > first you ask why a computer simulation could be better
               | than doing it manually
               | 
               | No, I never asked this at all. Some people changed the
               | question to this for reasons I still don't understand.
               | The actual question I asked was: "what are the criteria
               | for distinguishing those scenarios from the interesting
               | cases? And how do we know which case this one is like?"
               | 
               | The whole point here is to figure out if the problems
               | they're declaring computational superiority on are
               | analogous to the wooden stick problem here. Not to ask
               | "when are simulations better than doing it manually".
        
               | carabiner wrote:
               | Are you just asking if these are unrealistic, contrived
               | performance benchmarks? Those have always existed and
               | they're fine:
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231084
               | 
               | Some are more useful than others. There's no strict
               | criteria just as there is no perfect way fully
               | characterize CPU performance.
        
               | dataflow wrote:
               | "Unrealistic" or "contrived" don't really get to the
               | heart of the matter, at least not as I understand them.
               | The stick example can be extremely useful and realistic -
               | it doesn't really make any difference to the question.
               | 
               | Perhaps another way to phrase it (though I'm not 100%
               | sure this is equivalent) is: how do they know whether
               | whatever they're accomplishing is quantum computation, as
               | opposed to something else (like analog computation) that
               | happens to be concerned with quantum physics.
        
             | carabiner wrote:
             | You're going to measure every point like this?
             | https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Andrzej-
             | Baier/publicati...
             | 
             | Likewise, you can crash a car in a lab and do a simulation
             | of one. Both tell you "fascinating" things and are still
             | done by engineers.
        
               | dataflow wrote:
               | This has nothing to do with the question though.
               | 
               | > You're going to measure every point like this?
               | 
               | Why would I need to? Is "tells you a bunch of answers to
               | questions you never asked along the way" really the
               | distinguishing factor for what constitutes computational
               | supremacy? If all I wanted was just the lengths of the
               | broken pieces, my simulation _has_ to tell me the stress
               | and strain at every point in order to be considered
               | superior to a numerical simulator? Merely telling me the
               | answer to the question I asked doesn 't count? So if my
               | prime factorization tool factored 4096-bit integers
               | instantly, that's not enough? It has to factor a bunch of
               | unrelated numbers and maybe solve TSP in the middle
               | before we can consider it superior to classical
               | computation?
        
             | pooloo wrote:
             | You really just answered this yourself:
             | 
             | > Assume a computer would need several minutes to simulate
             | everything that would've happened in the stick. I clearly
             | got the output faster than a computer (and with more
             | precision), so does this imply I'm doing anything
             | particularly fascinating?
             | 
             | You assert that you have output faster than a computer with
             | more precision. However, you do not have any empirical
             | data, just observable data; as stated by zdragnar:
             | 
             | > The difference between you breaking a stick and the
             | computer modeling it is that you've measured nothing. You
             | don't know, with any precision, the amount of force you
             | used, the rate the stick broke at, how much mass remains in
             | the two pieces and how much was lost to splintering, etc.
             | 
             | Then you further state that you can measure those with a
             | ruler and a scale; however, this inherently takes time with
             | significant uncertainty in your measurements and
             | calculations. Whereas a computer will provide all of those
             | numbers.
             | 
             | The other thing to consider is the method of simulation
             | such as finite-element analysis (FEA) and the resolution
             | you need. You can get segmented data all the way to down a
             | specific volume of that stick, good luck with the hand
             | calculations on that.
        
               | fnordpiglet wrote:
               | I don't think you guys are tackling this right. You can
               | observe the stick breaking to absurd precision, even
               | using an electron tunneling microscope, and produce
               | immense amounts of data about the sticks state at every
               | point in the breaking and afterwards faster than a
               | computer can simulate breaking the stick. The key is the
               | stick breaking and it's observation at any level of
               | detail happens in parallel with all aspects of the system
               | coherently acting in real time simultaneously in a way
               | with perfect effects and transmission of information
               | between all quantum parts of the system at the speed of
               | light. The computer on the other hand is operating in a
               | binary encoding Turing machine forced to rely on
               | imperfect relatively serial (compared to the parallelism
               | of reality) with encodings that and algorithmic
               | mathematical models that produce encodings that are
               | similar to what reality produces naturally. The issue is
               | the layers of abstraction, nor the measurement and detail
               | of the system. All the measurable information about the
               | stick and it's breaking is available and measurable with
               | no impact on the time it takes to break the stick.
               | 
               | Here's perhaps a more clear example. The universe
               | influences itself at a distance with all bodies acting on
               | all other bodies at once. This is a classical nbody
               | problem where n->inf. We can measure quite easily these
               | effects without perturbing the system, which would not be
               | able to progress a single iteration in the entire span of
               | the universe if simulated by a computer.
        
               | ithkuil wrote:
               | But the comparison is not fair.
               | 
               | Yes the electron microscope can image a lot of details
               | "in parallel" but not all details from all angles, all
               | internal microfractures. You can't easily measure all
               | temperature gradients in all cubic nanometers of the
               | material etc etc.
               | 
               | The simulation is slow because it works at that level and
               | thus as a side effect will also give you that output.
               | 
               | Obviously if you don't need all that information you may
               | find another route to arrive at the results you want
        
               | fnordpiglet wrote:
               | You _could_ though, it's entirely fair. All information
               | about the system is available for measurement down to the
               | quantum level across all dimensions, because it's a
               | perfect fidelity to reality. Regardless of whatever
               | specific tool you choose, in theory I could build tools
               | that measure in near infinite detail the stick. I could
               | not however build a computer that could calculate that
               | detail of the stick with perfect fidelity to reality.
               | It's a gross approximation no matter what you do. I would
               | however point out that my nbody example is entirely
               | analogous and is perhaps more tractable as to why it's
               | impossible to compare measuring reality to calculating a
               | simulation. Simulations have the advantage that you can
               | reproduce and tweak it repeatedly without having to
               | configure the universe in a specific way every time. You
               | can hold variables constant, you can change the laws of
               | nature, you can simplify complexities to narrow in on a
               | specific behavior. But simulations are never a
               | replacement for measurement of reality, and the reason is
               | the opposite of what you're holding out. Reality can be
               | measured to an arbitrary level of complexity literally in
               | real time, even systems that are so complex we can't
               | consider possibly simulating even approximations of the
               | system.
        
           | BasedAnon wrote:
           | Now if we had a way of measuring it, it would be interesting
           | to ask what sort of model of computation we could derive from
           | the breaking of sticks
        
             | shredprez wrote:
             | I cannot wait to tell you about the cutting-edge technology
             | my team is developing -- it's called the twigchain and it's
             | going to change everything.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | somenameforme wrote:
         | Oddly enough, I think this can be answered by headlines alone.
         | Imagine you could do anything remotely interesting with a
         | relative speedup of 47 years to 'instant', where we can say an
         | instant is 1 millisecond. That'd mean in one day of
         | calculation, you could do things that'd take a current era
         | supercomputer more than 4 billion years to achieve. And so on
         | upward from there. Yet we're focusing on this odd and
         | _relatively_ boring metric of 47 years?
         | 
         | That suggests that the implications intentionally provoked by
         | the phrasing "Google's quantum computer instantly makes
         | calculations that take rivals 47 years" are obviously false,
         | even if the statement itself is true in some extremely specific
         | context. So in other words, when genuine quantum progress has
         | been achieved - I don't think we'll need to debate it, as the
         | results would speak for themselves.
        
         | Strilanc wrote:
         | The key detail you're missing is that the problem must be
         | _written down_. All details must be specified, so that you can
         | unambiguously tell how well it 's being solved.
         | 
         | Yes, you can write down a problem inspired by a specific stick.
         | And yes, the written down problem will of course inevitably
         | differ in the details from the real stick. Normally you'd think
         | of these small differences as small errors in the description.
         | But as soon as you try to argue the stick is computing the
         | written-down problem, they become errors _in the stick_ because
         | they affect its ability to implement the problem you wrote
         | down.
        
         | robot_no_421 wrote:
         | You're not modeling or predicting anything though. That's like
         | saying "what if I built a bridge that failed on the first day?
         | A computer would need several days to calculate all the forces
         | that led to the failure, but my bridge failed just fine without
         | any computer help".
         | 
         | Well... yes. But try building a bridge that doesn't break.
         | 
         | Or to keep with your scenario, try to predict exactly where and
         | how your stick will break before you break it. You can't.
        
           | ori_b wrote:
           | Does Google's implementation of quantum computing help with
           | this sort of scenario, or is it a really fancy way of
           | breaking the bridge?
        
             | robot_no_421 wrote:
             | Yes, and no. Don't ask me rhetorical questions if you don't
             | want a rhetorical answer.
        
             | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
             | Well you don't have to sacrifice any sticks or bridges to
             | see what happens, so that's a plus.
             | 
             | One could imagine stimulating experiments that are
             | implausible to actually perform.
        
         | jcims wrote:
         | I wonder about that frequently. The universe 'executes' physics
         | in, as far as I can tell, a realtime basis (at least within the
         | local reference frame). What is that called as compared to
         | computing a model of the same.
        
           | wanderingstan wrote:
           | Of course for you it feels like realtime, because the physics
           | of "you" are being executed on the same "system".
           | 
           | It's funny to think that if we are living in a simulation,
           | that the machine we're running on might have horrible uptime,
           | but we'd never know because our "time" only works when the
           | machine is running!
        
             | beebeepka wrote:
             | Just like a tick rate in a game
        
           | chaboud wrote:
           | Why do you think time dilation needs to occur in our
           | simulation? Be it from instance-shard transition due to cell
           | crossing (special relativity) or inter-node lag due to
           | spatial density (general relativity), system design
           | constraints dictated the very rules of our "physical"
           | existence.
           | 
           | (Poe's Law notice: yes, I'm joking)
        
         | riwsky wrote:
         | Your wooden stick is dedicated hardware for computing the
         | behavior of wooden sticks. Fascinating? Pretty subjective--but
         | one of the best concrete proxies we have for "fascination" is
         | "economic value" (cf OpenAI's AGI definition). Is it going to
         | make (or save) you a lot of money to quickly find out how that
         | stick broke? Probably not.
        
           | gnramires wrote:
           | I think you can make the case that, for example, going out,
           | taking a stick from a forest, breaking it and record the
           | sound will be much more economical than trying to simulate a
           | realistic stick breaking sound -- in particular in developer
           | time trying to model sticks and wood breaking sounds in a
           | convincing way (suppose we need say an art asset for a game).
           | 
           | It's something complexity theory isn't well prepared to
           | tackle, at least on first look. Complexity theory doesn't
           | take into account the cost of devising an algorithm itself.
           | And complexity theory usually only is interested in
           | asymptotic behavior -- different in both ways from what we
           | have (n=1 and algorithm cost). I think simulations win only
           | when there are significant gains to be had over just doing it
           | in real life, i.e. when you are only interested in a simple
           | aspect that can be summarized by a model, or when for some
           | reason the real life event uses a lot of energy or costs
           | significantly. An extremely accurate simulation of wood and
           | wood breaking, and sound, I think would be quite
           | computationally costly -- the wood is already very complex
           | (not as complex as the base atomic reality -- you probably
           | don't need to model every single atom -- but still very
           | complex). Sticks are cheap, and breaking a stick is easy.
           | Breaking the stick doesn't seem to take much energy, and
           | realistically stick breaking itself (although perhaps not
           | stick collecting) comes out ahead energetically!
           | 
           | It gets quite complicated quickly, and it really depends on
           | what you want to model, but I think it's interesting to see
           | when and if simulations are advantageous (for example, you
           | could take the cost of raising a tree into account, or not!
           | is the stick "free" because it would grow and decay anyway?).
           | I think in the long term many things can be simplified into
           | what we're interested, so models increasingly win. But
           | realistically (in our limited lives and limited universes :))
           | I think there will always be a place for physical
           | experimentation, taking pictures of sticks and recording the
           | sound as they break. (and hopefully our relationship with
           | trees and sticks itself still lasts for a long time...)
           | 
           | I say that as someone who really enjoys modelling nature! :)
           | I think modelling and trying to recreate natural process
           | (sometimes with an artistic touch as well) is a great way to
           | understand and appreciate the wonders of the universe.
           | 
           | Note: Also, even with ideal reversible 0-cost computation,
           | there's likely to be some kind of polynomial _time_ overhead
           | to 1:1 simulation of reality. This can be enough to justify
           | experimentation instead of simulation, in some cases, when
           | your model itself isn 't a significant simplification over
           | reality.
        
             | riwsky wrote:
             | Complexity theory doesn't handle it, but that's why I
             | didn't use complexity theory. Economics handles it fine: no
             | one's ever paid you or anyone else to do a wood-breaking
             | simulation at a sufficient physical level of detail to
             | capture the sound accurately, so the comparative savings on
             | it aren't economically valuable.
        
               | chaboud wrote:
               | Sound effect libraries have long included the sounds of
               | wood breaking/cracking, generally recorded (rather than
               | simulated). A couple of jobs ago, we sold sound effect
               | libraries that cost 2-5x the cost of the software
               | applications that they were used with (hundreds to
               | thousands of dollars).
               | 
               | I think you'd be hard pressed to find economists (beyond
               | freshman college students who recently discovered
               | Nietzsche second hand at a party) arguing for a purely
               | direct monetary expression of value, but even they would
               | have to admit that recordings of broken sticks in snow
               | covered forests have non-zero value.
        
               | gnramires wrote:
               | Indeed, not a disagreement, just a contribution to the
               | commentary :)
        
         | ablatt89 wrote:
         | Any problems where the configuration space is large, and you
         | want to find some optimal configurations to the problem, would
         | in theory benefit since you can directly map the configurations
         | into the entangled qubits. Entangled qubits give you the
         | ability to physically represent large configuration spaces.
         | 
         | The difficult is ensuring entanglement between qubits, scaling
         | up the qubit count, noise reduction between the qubits and the
         | other physical parts of the quantum computer, error correction,
         | and generating the circuit to represent the optimization
         | problem, formalizing a proof that the total time of quantum
         | computation (computation + preparation) is less than to
         | simulate on high performance computers and what not.
         | 
         | There's several YouTube videos where some company has mapped
         | their problem into a quantum circuit and claim it provided
         | solutions to optimization problems that they couldn't have
         | found classically but dunno, I guess it would really require AB
         | testing between classically computing it on an HPC versus a
         | quantum computer.
        
         | selimnairb wrote:
         | Regardless of how good our classical or quantum computers get,
         | simulating "complex" natural systems is ultimately limited by
         | our ability to observe and measure the physical properties of
         | the "components" (I put quotes here to acknowledge the
         | difficulty/impossibility of delineating system components) of
         | that system. I'm not sure quantum computers will help with
         | that.
        
           | sfpotter wrote:
           | You're missing the point of the question.
        
             | selimnairb wrote:
             | I'm saying that for some problems, neither classical nor
             | quantum computers may arrive at an acceptable answer.
        
         | CrampusDestrus wrote:
         | When you break a stick you just break a stick. When you
         | simulate breaking a stick you know everything about the broken
         | stick.
         | 
         | What if you broke the stick to study its material properties?
         | Then you would need to spend months carefully taking samples
         | and measuring all the broken spots.
         | 
         | With a perfect simulation? You're done the moment it ends. All
         | the data is there available with a copy paste
        
           | hutzlibu wrote:
           | "With a perfect simulation? You're done the moment it ends.
           | All the data is there available with a copy paste"
           | 
           | As far as I understand, to perfectly simulate reality, you
           | would need a second reality.
        
             | wholinator2 wrote:
             | Well of course the simulation is a simulation. They are
             | speaking of the ideal case. A real simulation is an
             | application of a model, the physics of the molecules and
             | structures interacting. They are saying that in the ideal
             | case, once the simulation is complete you have complete
             | knowledge of the entire system at every moment in time. Of
             | course there's a resolution to all this. The time steps are
             | comparatively large to the planck time and the wave
             | functions are approximations, everything is an
             | approximation, that's what makes it a simulation.
             | 
             | But the principle is that within your model, once the
             | simulation is complete you know _everything_. You have
             | measured every aspect of reality possible from your
             | simplified version. If your model was arbitrarily close to
             | reality you really would know everything
        
       | troupe wrote:
       | The fact that the calculation would take 47 years on a classical
       | computer is only a break through if the calculation is something
       | we actually want to do. Otherwise it just means that we have
       | created an unnecessary problem designed to be solved quickly by a
       | quantum computer.
       | 
       | That isn't to say that this quantum computer isn't impressive and
       | a step forward. Just that the comparison isn't really meaningful
       | unless the problem being calculated transcends computer
       | architecture--meaning it is actually interesting to solve
       | regardless of the architecture being used.
        
       | jl6 wrote:
       | The ability to entangle particles feels like a really amazing new
       | capability. (New in the last 100 years anyway). Like it's a brand
       | new kind of substance that has never been made before. Everything
       | in all of history has been built out of boring old atoms, not
       | these fancy new entangled things.
       | 
       | Even if quantum computers turn out not to be able to solve
       | interesting problems, I wonder if computers are the only thing we
       | can make out of it.
        
         | DonHopkins wrote:
         | Electric space heaters? That's crypto's most practical
         | application.
        
           | oldgradstudent wrote:
           | Crypto makes extremely expensive space heaters.
           | 
           | On the positive side, they are just as efficient as regular
           | space heaters in producing heat from electricity.
        
           | rvz wrote:
           | Nope.
           | 
           | That is now overtaken by AI (Especially LLMs), [0] which does
           | not have any efficient methods of training, fine-tuning and
           | inferencing.
           | 
           | Crypto on the other hand has already has alternative
           | consensus algorithms available today which can cut it
           | emissions down significantly [1].
           | 
           | [0] https://gizmodo.com/chatgpt-ai-water-185000-gallons-
           | training...
           | 
           | [1] https://consensys.net/blog/press-release/ethereum-
           | blockchain...
        
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