[HN Gopher] The Rise of the AI Engineer
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       The Rise of the AI Engineer
        
       Author : swyx
       Score  : 159 points
       Date   : 2023-06-30 17:01 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.latent.space)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.latent.space)
        
       | janalsncm wrote:
       | I still feel a bit strange about calling someone an "AI engineer"
       | and I think there are a few reasons.
       | 
       | 1. _AI is poorly defined_. This is a fundamental problem behind
       | almost every conversation on the "topic". Depending on the
       | context, AI can mean anything from a decision tree to deep neural
       | networks to science fiction.
       | 
       | 2. Engineering implies a deeper level of understanding. If you
       | want to engineer a system, you need a deeper understanding of how
       | each of the components work. Using a tool does not make one a
       | tool engineer. It makes them a 21st century blacksmith. Does
       | calling an LLM API make me an AI engineer? If so, calling a
       | weather API makes me a weatherman.
       | 
       | 3. This is a relatively new area, and make no mistake, it is a
       | new area. 2 years ago most of the tooling around ML work meant
       | you had to get your hands dirty. To use BERT, you pretty much
       | needed to learn about tokenization and attention masks and CUDA.
       | Not so much with GPT3. So it seems premature to even circumscribe
       | at the moment.
       | 
       | What I am not saying: I don't think one needs to take a class in
       | linear algebra to work with this stuff. I also never believed in
       | calculus for CS students, which may be a minority opinion too.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | preommr wrote:
       | Oh God, this is going to be like DevOps all over again isn't it?
       | Where there's people constantly gluing together things from
       | different companies.
       | 
       | I foresee layers and layers of abstraction dependent not on
       | technology spec but on some company's poorly maintained docs and
       | apis that you get by calling some service rep.
        
         | sanderjd wrote:
         | I have found data engineering to feel that way as well. Just
         | throwing darts at a board of vendor solutions, trying to figure
         | out how to cobble them together into something useful. I am
         | worried this is going to be that as well.
         | 
         | I'd like to learn more about how to self-host systems that are
         | large enough to be useful, rather than doing this cobbling
         | together proprietary APIs thing.
        
       | __rito__ wrote:
       | > _" the fundamental gatekeeping that still persists in the
       | market"_
       | 
       | This person just called me a gatekeeper when just our definitions
       | of what an AI Engineer is different... all while discussing the
       | ambiguities of the term "AI Engineer".
       | 
       | Well, that's the internet for you!
       | 
       | My intentions were never of gatekeeping, our definitions of the
       | term are wildly different. I laid the beginning part of a roadmap
       | for a person who wants to solve problems that exist in the real
       | world with Deep Learning- by choosing how to structure data,
       | training models with existing architectures (and optimizers, loss
       | functions, activation functions, and so on) and creating new ones
       | from scratch- and to deploy them to solve the problem in the
       | physical space.
       | 
       | Although, I have not spent hours on what the term "AI Engineer"
       | should mean, it is not prompt engineering to me. If there is a
       | consensus in future on the term meaning prompt engineering, then
       | I will not give any advice on that, because I don't know much.
       | Neither will I fight the definition.
       | 
       | My definition, still is the person who develops new kinds of
       | microwaves as opposed to the author's whose definition is that of
       | a cook who uses the microwave, by creating new recipes and
       | dishes. That's fine, but didn't liked being called a gatekeeper.
        
       | boredumb wrote:
       | I think it's all just being more accessible for people like me to
       | integrate into applications via AIs. With that said - the barrier
       | for entry also lowered substantially in the last few years to a
       | point where implementing your own neural network from scratch
       | with Pytorch is something you can do in a few (took me a weekend)
       | hours coming in blind, but reading the docs and scrolling some
       | existing repositories.
       | 
       | I remember a decade ago taking a stab at it and being very much
       | over my head. Not sure if i'm getting older and there's less
       | magic going on around it or if it's the
       | ecosystem/docs/examples/pytorch/jax/hours of youtube content/etc
       | but somewhere in there, at least for me personally, it's gotten
       | much more accessible.
        
         | amilios wrote:
         | Personally I think it's a combination of
         | 
         | a) much better resources being available than in the past,
         | which explain concepts clearly and in relatively simple terms,
         | and
         | 
         | b) much better tooling existing now than ever before, so many
         | things that you used to need to do "by hand" are now taken care
         | of by relatively standardized tooling. Even just automatic
         | differentiation engines are a huge deal, not having to backprop
         | "by hand" (first release of TensorFlow was 7 years ago, so if
         | you looked at it a decade ago I'm assuming you had to implement
         | backprop yourself). Beyond that another jump was from
         | Tensorflow's delayed execution/compilation model (it really was
         | a headache to work around its APIs/set up the computation
         | graph) as well as just having a generally ugly API, to
         | PyTorch's "literal" setup, where it feels like you're just
         | writing regular Python code and performing operations
         | "normally"
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | I'm not sure I agree with their reasoning. There are a lot of
       | generalist backend/infra engineers who are working in the AI
       | space. What is the special skillset that distinguishes them from
       | all others? If you say that they are "AI engineers" because they
       | are working on AI as a product, then should we also have
       | "advertising engineers", "billing engineers", "API engineers"?
       | 
       | The reality is that tons of people just build a trivial app
       | calling an OpenAI API and put "AI engineer" on their resume to
       | capitalize on the hype.
        
       | m3kw9 wrote:
       | AI engineer is a hype term for someone that can incorporate LLM
       | to solve an engineering problem. It isn't that hard to use OpenAI
       | apis, LLM are like super abstractions. You tell it in natural
       | language, as opposed to a specific programming language. It's
       | still a very narrow field. The hype is real but it's getting a
       | bit frothy
        
       | charles_f wrote:
       | There's a bit of snake oil in all of that.
       | 
       | By any means ML is a very specialized subfield, where you need
       | solid math basis and a deep understanding of the science behind
       | it all.
       | 
       | But I struggle to see the same thing for AI. If by "AI engineers"
       | you mean someone who builds an LLM*, then it's very much just ML.
       | If you mean someone who integrates with the LLM someone else
       | built, then it's very much just backend work. Sure, you might
       | need a few days to understand a few concepts, I've integrated
       | with Paypal in the past and that doesn't make me a payment for
       | engineer.
       | 
       | * wont even get into the argument of labelling LLMs with AI
        
         | godelski wrote:
         | > where you need solid math basis and a deep understanding of
         | the science behind it all.
         | 
         | I __REALLY__ really wish this were true. But I'll be honest, I
         | know quite a number of researchers at high level institutions
         | (FAANG and top 10 unis) that don't understand things like
         | probability distributions or the difference between likelihood
         | and probability. There's a lot of "interpretability" left on
         | the table simply through not understanding some basic
         | mathematics, let along advanced (high dimensional statistics,
         | differential geometry, set theory, etc). The AI engineering
         | often "needs" less of an understanding.
         | 
         | But I don't think this is a good thing. I specifically have
         | been vocal about how this is going to cause real world harm.
         | Forget the AGI, just look at how people are using models today
         | without any understanding. How people think you can synthesize
         | new data without considering diversity of that data[0], can
         | create "self healing code" that will generate high quality and
         | good code[1,2], how people think LLMs understands
         | causality[3,4], or just how fucking hard evaluation really
         | is[5] (I really cannot stress this last one enough). There is a
         | serious crisis in ML right now, and it is also the thing that
         | made it explode in funding: hype. I don't think this is a
         | bubble in the sense that AI will go away, but I think if we
         | aren't careful with how we deal with this then it isn't
         | unlikely to see heavy governmental restrictions placed on these
         | things. Plus, a lot of us are pretty confident that just
         | learning through data is not enough to get to AGI. It just
         | isn't a high enough level of abstraction, besides being a pain
         | (see the semantic deduplication comments about generation). But
         | academia is even railroaded into SOTA chasing because that's
         | what conferences like. NLP as an entire field right now is
         | almost entirely composed of people just tuning big models
         | instead of developing novel architectures (if you don't win,
         | you struggle to get published despite differing factors). We
         | let big labs spend massive amounts of compute to compare to
         | little labs who can get similar performance with a hundredth,
         | but don't publish those works. It is the curse of benchmarkism
         | and it is maddening. Honestly, a lot of times I feel like a
         | crazy person for bringing this up. Because when I say "ML needs
         | a solid math basis and deep understanding of the science behind
         | it" everyone agrees, but when the rubber hits the road and I
         | suggest mathematical solutions to resolve these, I'm laughed at
         | or told it is unnecessary.
         | 
         | [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36509816
         | 
         | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36297867
         | 
         | [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35806152
         | 
         | [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36036859
         | 
         | [4] https://www.cs.helsinki.fi/u/ahyvarin/papers/NN99.pdf
         | 
         | [5] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36116939
        
         | fragmede wrote:
         | Well, and frontend work. ChatGPT wouldn't been anywhere near
         | the product it is without the webterface.
         | 
         | As far as PayPal integration, no but it makes you the subject
         | matter expert (SME) in the room above a room full of people who
         | aren't, and maybe aren't even developers.
        
         | senko wrote:
         | If you have React engineers, why couldn't you have AI
         | engineers?
         | 
         | I think the post is right to try to delineate the roles of
         | "builds LLMs or other ML models" and "uses those models", as
         | (as you noted) the skills required are very different (vs.
         | "creates a JS framework" vs "uses a JS framework" are the same
         | skills, just on another level).
         | 
         | "AI engineer" is, as you say, inaccurate, but as swyx says,
         | it's least cringy of the alternatives.
         | 
         | > Sure, you might need a few days to understand a few concepts,
         | I've integrated with Paypal in the past and that doesn't make
         | me a payment for engineer.
         | 
         | No, but the post explicitly calls out the breadth of knowledge
         | that the future AI engineers will have to have. It's not
         | something you can pick up in a few days, even now, if you want
         | to be on top of things.
         | 
         | I can look up some docs and hook up static file hosting on S3
         | and that doesn't make an AWS engineer. But there are people who
         | full time work on providing solutions using AWS-everything and
         | have built their entire careers (and companies) on top of that
         | specialization.
         | 
         | The difference in scale _is_ the difference in job description.
        
           | ignoramous wrote:
           | > _If you have React engineers, why couldn 't you have AI
           | engineers?_
           | 
           | We most definitely could. That's one way to prop up a cottage
           | industry, stay relevant, command hefty salaries, and maintain
           | that charade of importance through complexity by creating
           | Frankenstein features in search of problems and promotions.
        
             | bedobi wrote:
             | like the canned messages that are increasingly finding
             | themselves into any app where you can send messages to
             | people, be it email, whatsapp, tinder, whatever
             | 
             | "Hey John! I see you like traveling, I love traveling too!
             | What are some of the most memorable trips you've had?"
             | 
             | like, who would want to receive such an obviously canned
             | message lol?
             | 
             | soon, it will just be the apps talking to each other, no
             | humans required
        
           | 29athrowaway wrote:
           | Because AI as terminology is vague and can mean anything.
           | 
           | Graph search is AI, pathfinding is AI, decision trees are AI,
           | fuzzy logic is AI, expert systems are AI, machine learning is
           | AI.
           | 
           | Just say LLM analyst or whatever.
        
         | selalipop wrote:
         | Maybe the term "engineer" did the concept a disservice, but
         | prompt engineering has a lot of parallels to the field of UX.
         | 
         | Currently there's a lot intuition involved so it can come
         | across as made up, but there are novel concepts which
         | meaningfully affect the end quality of what you make, and it
         | takes time to learn and/or discover them.
         | 
         | As time goes I expect our understanding of what underlies "good
         | prompts" will start to bridge the gap from intuition to science
         | much like how UX bridged into neuroscience and psychology. If
         | you understand things like attention and logits that's already
         | kind of happening: you can use that knowledge to identify gaps
         | in the abilities of LLMs and start to bridge those gaps.
         | 
         | -
         | 
         | People are convinced that future LLMs will obsolete prompt
         | engineering. To me that'd be like people from the 90s thinking
         | computers are going to obsolete UX because more powerful
         | computers will be better at making user interfaces, and in turn
         | anyone will be able to do it.
         | 
         | In some ways they'd be right: Today you don't need a UX expert
         | at PARC to integrate a WYSIWYG interface into your product.
         | Computers got so powerful that in milliseconds we can download
         | libraries that implement the interface and render it across any
         | form factor you can imagine. So now a WYSIWYG on your contact
         | form is nothing.
         | 
         | But as computers got more powerful they could do new things, so
         | UX advanced onto improving how we interface with those new
         | things. Things like the Vision Pro will unlock new areas of UX
         | based on novel capabilities they posses.
         | 
         | I think people are making a similar mistake with LLMs: they're
         | focused on this idea that we'll just do the current things but
         | better with more powerful models. But the more powerful models
         | will be something we can "prompt engineer" into usecases we
         | haven't even considered yet. (I also built notionsmith.ai and
         | I'd argue it fits into that bucket a bit)
        
       | vjust wrote:
       | recently saw a demo app built on top of GPT3. Used a rest API for
       | prompts. The backend was hooked to a corpus of PDFs and a SQL
       | Database with financial data.
       | 
       | What changed was the queries were English/natural language. The
       | query language has changed. That's the R in CRUD. I wonder if the
       | C, U, and D will also change.
       | 
       | While this is one of many types of AI, it means commands will be
       | in natural English. This might be a big deal for UI builders
       | because how we ask questions has changed to NL.
        
         | wizofaus wrote:
         | I'm curious about this sort of use case - how long does it take
         | for a GPT-based system to process a bunch of documents it's
         | never seen before so that you can perform NL searches on them?
         | Assuming something ike a million total pages of text are we
         | talking minutes? Hours? Days?
         | 
         | And is it at all feasible to ensure whatever factual
         | information is returned is only sourced from said documents, vs
         | being "hallucinated" by virtue of whatever weights exist based
         | on the core training corpus?
        
       | rufius wrote:
       | AI/ML Engineers will be our modern day variant of the Mystic.
       | They'll whisper sweet nothings into the ears of their models,
       | looking at the goat entrails of what their models output and tell
       | us of their predictions.
       | 
       | It's going to be a shit show.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | This stuff is going to be so vague that an AI will be able to
         | do it.
        
       | swyx wrote:
       | hi HN! am writing this up as a recap of the enhanced role of code
       | in LLM applications, and the emerging professionalization that
       | will happen as a result. would welcome any and all feedback!
       | 
       | I'm also soft launching the conference I am planning for Oct.
       | Join us if you are in SF (will be streamed) https://ai.engineer/
        
       | Xen9 wrote:
       | I predict Cognitive Engineer / Cognitive Architect will become a
       | thing.
        
       | forrestbrazeal wrote:
       | Hey Shawn! Always enjoy your writing.
       | 
       | I think you've done well laying out what a lot of people want "AI
       | Engineer" to mean at this moment in time. My concern (coming
       | fresh out of the absolute semantic nightmare that was the
       | "serverless" community) is that the term AI is so hopelessly
       | overloaded, and has been such a moving target over the years,
       | that it's unlikely that a plurality of people will ever share
       | your mental model of what an "AI Engineer" is/ does / knows / is
       | paid.
       | 
       | Personally I've been using Generative Engineering / GenEng [0] to
       | describe the professional practice of building stuff with AI as
       | your pair programmer. I recognize some are pulling away from the
       | term "generative", but to me it feels like a better anchor into
       | the specific flavor of AI we're talking about.
       | 
       | [0] https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/ai-machine-
       | learning/t...
        
         | swyx wrote:
         | hey Forrest! thanks so much!
         | 
         | agree with the semantic overload risk, but i think at this
         | point Worse is Better is applying here. like I said in the
         | piece I'm not starting the trend, just calling out that it's
         | already under way.
        
         | sanderjd wrote:
         | Hmm, I think "the professional practice of building stuff with
         | AI as your pair programmer" is just "software engineering".
         | That is, it's just one more tool to use to do the existing
         | work. We never had "Search Engineering" or "StackOverflow
         | Engineering" to describe the practice of building stuff using
         | web search and stack overflow as tools...
        
         | giovannibonetti wrote:
         | Maybe Text Processing Engineer or Text Engineer for short could
         | express well that this person handles both text analysis and
         | synthesis. It is analogous to the term Data Engineer, which
         | describes someone that handles data processing and pipelines in
         | general.
        
         | ehnto wrote:
         | Generative isn't perfect for similar reasons perhaps, I
         | consider procedural generarion adjacent to machine learning
         | based generation so it would need to encompass both to make
         | sense to me.
        
       | cbm-vic-20 wrote:
       | I'm a natural skeptic, and I believe we're still on the rising
       | edge of the "AI" hype cycle. Five years ago, it was "blockchain",
       | and everyone was trying to ram blockchain into everything,
       | attracting lots of VC and media attention, etc. It seems that
       | blockchain is beyond the honeymoon phase: I haven't seen an NFT
       | or even a Bitcoin headline in HN for a while.
       | 
       | So I'm trying to wrap my head around what an "AI Engineer" is. As
       | I see it, it's all about calling a function that takes some text
       | as an input, and getting some text as output. That function, of
       | course, is being run on some big hardware that in most cases, you
       | don't own. So is the "engineering" part of this finessing the
       | input and massaging the output? Do most "AI Engineers" actually
       | understand what's going on in that function, beyond what they
       | learned in the "LLM 101" videos and articles that have been
       | flooding the web over the past year?
       | 
       | While an application developer doesn't need to know all of the
       | ins-and-outs of the underlying operating systems they run on,
       | those developers that _do_ have a deep understanding of the OS
       | are the ones who write more performant code, and can really get
       | to the bottom of issues that arise do to how their code uses the
       | OS. Can the same be said of  "AI Engineers"?
       | 
       | All of a sudden, everyone's an AI Engineer. Where where these
       | experts hiding five years ago?
       | 
       | https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...
        
         | Xenoamorphous wrote:
         | I think comparing AI to blockchain is not fair.
         | 
         | Sure, it was a hyped technology a few years back, but only in
         | tech environments.
         | 
         | My mom has never heard of blockchain, I bet. AI is in the
         | mainstream media all the time.
         | 
         | But ultimately it's a matter of scope. AI has the potential of,
         | at the very least, transforming lots of jobs. Blockchain never
         | had that potential.
         | 
         | The company I work for, a non-tech one, never ever mentioned
         | blockchain. But they're trying to get AI everywhere.
        
         | PheonixPharts wrote:
         | AI Engineer here.
         | 
         | To start with, I share some of your skepticism about AI and
         | hype (but I love these problems, so I'm happy to take the risk
         | of overhyping to try to solve these challenges). But there is a
         | lot of real work going on in this space. Though most of these
         | are basically the same answers as you'd get in the article.
         | 
         | > it's all about calling a function that takes some text as an
         | input, and getting some text as output.
         | 
         | Real world AI applications involve non-trivial prompts that are
         | often composed of many different components and dynamically
         | changed based on user interaction with the environment. So it's
         | not quite as simple in practice as just calling an API.
         | 
         | > So is the "engineering" part of this finessing the input and
         | massaging the output?
         | 
         | You could make this claim about _all_ software engineering at
         | the end of the day.
         | 
         | If you want to understand whether or not any of the billion
         | companies shipping "AI" products right now are _really_ doing
         | AI, the big term to ask about is  "evaluations". It is not
         | trivial to evaluate the performance of LLM output across a
         | broad range of tasks. However if you're not doing this, then
         | you can't possibly know how your efforts are doing. The
         | companies that are slapping "AI" stickers on old products are
         | largely ignoring this issue.
         | 
         | The next challenge is "how do you improve bad outputs?" Prompt
         | engineering is one solution, but there are potentially may
         | other engineering solutions to recovering from a bad state.
         | None of these are trivial.
         | 
         | A rapidly growing part of this space is working with "agents",
         | that is you have multiple LLMs that are capable of interacting
         | with each other. This area is changing rapidly.
         | 
         | Vector databases are also becoming very important of the work
         | as not all LLM/AI work is just throwing around prompts, but
         | often working with embeddings.
         | 
         | > All of a sudden, everyone's an AI Engineer. Where where these
         | experts hiding five years ago?
         | 
         | It's not that mysterious. Everyone I know working in this space
         | right now was either a very engineering focused data scientist
         | in their last role, or an ML engineer working near this space.
         | In either case they're people that have been interested in this
         | space before that have all the skills necessary to change
         | roles.
         | 
         | > Can the same be said of "AI Engineers"?
         | 
         | At least in my circle, everyone doing this work right now has a
         | long history of working in machine learning and quantitative
         | problem solving. Of course that used to be true of ML engineers
         | as well (and I've not far to many MLEs that don't understand
         | gradient descent).
        
         | chefandy wrote:
         | > Where where these experts hiding five years ago?
         | 
         | I'll bet that many of them were trying to ram blockchain into
         | everything!
         | 
         | Personally, I'm curiously watching emerging prompt pen testing
         | scene. It brings a tear of cyberpunk joy to my eye to consider
         | that we've built important, powerful systems advanced enough to
         | be vulnerable to social engineering attacks... and pretty dumb
         | ones, too.
        
           | ryandrake wrote:
           | What we're seeing now is a frantic attempt by companies to
           | ram "AI" into everything. Some force (Wall Street?) is
           | expecting companies to say "We're using AI." What do you need
           | it for? "We don't know, but damn we've got to use it for
           | something!"
           | 
           | A few years ago, few were talking about AI. Today, if it's
           | not somehow crammed into your product roadmap, you might as
           | well start looking for another job.
        
         | badrequest wrote:
         | > Do most "AI Engineers" actually understand what's going on in
         | that function, beyond what they learned in the "LLM 101" videos
         | and articles that have been flooding the web over the past
         | year?
         | 
         | Do they need to, to be effective at their jobs?
        
         | visarga wrote:
         | When your task is too nuanced to be described in a prompt and a
         | few demonstrations you need to use one of the fine-tuning
         | scripts to bake into the model much more supervised data.
         | That's still doable for AI Engineers, prepare data, call LoRA
         | fine tuning script, deploy model.
         | 
         | The problem is having a good supervised training set. But
         | recently it can be generated with LLMs + plugins and language
         | chains, basically amplified LLMs. In other cases you need to
         | collect human preference data and apply a different kind of
         | fine-tuning. Still mostly dataset curation and iterative model
         | building, something and AI Engineer should be able to do.
         | 
         | Working with LLMs is very different from building neural nets
         | like in 2017. Tons of those old skills are not needed anymore,
         | so many of the old tasks are basically solved at human level.
         | And a whole new set of problems appeared.
        
         | pcthrowaway wrote:
         | It really wasn't blockchain 5 years ago.
         | 
         | It was blockchain 6 years ago (though to a much lesser degree,
         | and focused on different iterations of the distributed ledger
         | idea). Then it was _really_ blockchain 2 years ago (but focused
         | on protocols built on smart-contract-enabled blockchains).
         | 
         | Interestingly, those two targets are completely different. 6
         | years ago the application was the ledger, and the language was
         | usually C, 2 years ago the application was "a financial product
         | built to run on a resource-constrained virtual machine that
         | executes a custom language (or Rust)".
         | 
         | The demand follows the money, so if the whole space experiences
         | another "bull run" there will be lots of demand for
         | "blockchain" again, and I'm sure the actual associated skills
         | expected will be different as well
        
         | dr_dshiv wrote:
         | ChatGPT is useful in a way that block chain never was. There
         | may be inflated expectations, but we are already on "the
         | plateau of productivity." I don't think LLMs are overhyped
         | relative to the normal background levels of tech hype.
        
         | fuddle wrote:
         | Bitcoin is probably a better comparison -
         | https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...
        
         | voz_ wrote:
         | Imagine comparing blockchain and AI.
        
           | minimaxir wrote:
           | Unfortunately, web3 bros pivoted to AI, which just adds even
           | more noise to the space.
        
             | wpietri wrote:
             | For me that's absolutely the strongest ground for
             | comparison.
             | 
             | In recent decades, we've had two big waves of tech advance:
             | the Web and mobile. A lot of people have lived through them
             | both, giving them an expectation that another such wave
             | should be along soon. You could see that in the decade of
             | blockchain/ICO/DAO/NFT/web3 hype, where people, many with
             | shaky credentials, touted the transformation soon to come,
             | taking in a lot of cash.
             | 
             | In retrospect, from Mt Gox to FTX we can see that it was
             | all horseshit. The main real advance was decentralizing not
             | finance or property or computing, but the Ponzi scheme.
             | 
             | Despite this failure, and echoing The Great Disappointment
             | [1], we see a lot of the same hype and even the same
             | people. Is it possible that this is different, that there's
             | more substance here? Or is this going to be another Groupon
             | or Metaverse? That _does not matter_ to the hypesters. They
             | 're going to run the same routine that worked before.
             | They're going to take in a lot of money, which is the
             | primary goal. It's possible that some of them will, by luck
             | or accident, latch on to something that isn't a total
             | fraud. Surely most of them won't.
             | 
             | But we should never forget that is basically irrelevant to
             | a lot of people in the early stages of a cycle. And not
             | just for the fraudsters, but for anybody who makes their
             | living on the upswing of the the hype cycle, including a
             | notable fraction of investors, "experts", and journalists.
             | how ever it turns out, they'll get paid just fine.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Disappointment
        
               | janalsncm wrote:
               | Fraudsters will do what fraudsters do. If it wasn't
               | crypto it would be scamming retirees or hoarding PS5s.
               | They're a largely insignificant part of the economy. At a
               | macro scale private capital has a much larger impact.
               | 
               | The issue is there's a lot of dumb VC money floating
               | around looking for a quick billion instead of investing
               | long term fundamental research (boring!) that may produce
               | results later on. It's a fundamental issue with the
               | economy because what Capital wants is not to do what's
               | best for humanity or even to build a sustainable widget
               | factory. Capital wants a money printer. It's a big
               | inefficiency in the economy because ideally they'd prefer
               | sustainable growth instead of 1000x unicorns.
        
               | minimaxir wrote:
               | Web3 / Metaverse was a solution in search of a problem.
               | 
               | AI is solving problems today.
        
               | wpietri wrote:
               | You're responding as if I said they were the same, but I
               | was pretty careful to say the opposite. My point is
               | explicitly setting the utility of "AI" aside.
        
           | jsight wrote:
           | It'll be fun to look back on these comments in a few years.
           | It will be like looking back on the internet skeptics of the
           | 90s. Most people have forgotten about those.
           | 
           | Of course, there was a big boom and bust cycle back then too,
           | but just like then, this cycle is nowhere near its peak.
        
           | aerhardt wrote:
           | LLMs and GenAI are already useful at scale but the current
           | hype that they will lead to infinitely generalizable models,
           | myriad groundbreaking applications in all fields and
           | industries, or even AGI could be overblown - let's at least
           | admit that as a possibility.
        
           | sanderjd wrote:
           | I would submit that we don't yet have enough evidence to say
           | whether the comparison is apt or inapt. I personally think
           | what's going on with these "generative" models seems like a
           | bigger deal than blockchain, but it's fiendishly difficult to
           | know what is or isn't hype while embedded within a hype
           | cycle.
        
             | janalsncm wrote:
             | Seriously? The only comparison you can make is that both
             | were hyped. Digging even a millimeter under the surface
             | reveals they're completely different.
             | 
             | Blockchain was and still is rife with scams and "you just
             | don't understand the technology bro" hype men. Just check
             | out Dirty Bubble Media. Blockchain was rarely if ever a
             | product that solved a problem, the whole point is The Line
             | Goes Up. That's why no one uses blockchain in industry, and
             | crypto bros were constantly finding themselves proposing
             | silly use cases like ticket sales and property deeds. These
             | are people who have apparently never heard of a relational
             | database.
             | 
             | The hype around AI is due to increased attention on things
             | that have already existed and have already been studied,
             | used, and improved for decades now. There was never much
             | R&D into blockchain tech because the tech isn't the point.
             | For ML, there are researchers who have worked on these
             | problems for decades. It doesn't need to justify its own
             | existence, the justification is that it can solve real
             | problems.
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | Again, I do tend to agree that there is a lot more
               | "there" there with generative AI. But I think it's also
               | true that it's too early to be sure.
               | 
               | You're comparing the two technologies at totally
               | different points in their hype cycles. The comparison
               | point to where AI is right now is to Bitcoin / very early
               | Ethereum in the late 2000s to early 2010s. Nobody knew
               | where it was all going, some people saw endless
               | potential, other people saw nonsense and scams. The
               | explosion of bitcoin into mainstream consciousness in the
               | early 2010s is akin to the explosion of ChatGPT over the
               | past 6 to 9 months.
               | 
               | But what's next? That's what matters. The early 2010s
               | bitcoin boom now pretty clearly looks like a fad, in
               | hindsight. Was ChatGPT also mostly a fad, or is it going
               | to be a lasting fixture of productivity and/or
               | entertainment moving forward? I think it's the latter -
               | it has already changed my habits at work in ways that I
               | think will be permanent - but I just think it's too early
               | to say for sure.
               | 
               | (And to be clear, I'm not talking about machine learning
               | as an academic discipline; I totally agree with you that
               | there is definitely enough evidence to say there is a lot
               | more "there" there than research into chained hashing to
               | solve double-spend-like problems.)
        
               | janalsncm wrote:
               | Well if you narrowly define AI to be ChatGPT and other
               | generative LLMs, I think I agree so some extent. Unlike
               | blockchain they do have use cases but it remains to be
               | seen if those use cases can justify the money being
               | thrown at them. How much is code completion really worth?
               | 
               | However, I disagree insofar as the outcome truly depends
               | on an unknown technology. Blockchain was never going to
               | revolutionize finance or any of its other grand claims.
               | At best (and that's if it worked), it would be a new
               | database type that all of the existing financial systems
               | would plug into. It was a libertarian pipe dream, naive
               | about how the world actually works.
               | 
               | For any AI application, the world is different. If we
               | simply replace AI with "automated system" we can see why.
               | Pretty much every company would like to replace their
               | workers with machines. And maybe machines can do things
               | that humans would never be able to do (for example,
               | search the entire internet for a very specific topic).
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | Yes that's what I'm talking about because that's what the
               | article is talking about! The article is _explicitly_ not
               | about the ML  / AI academic research. I agree that's well
               | established.
               | 
               | What the article is about is the current hype cycle of
               | people trying to take the newest generation of "AI"
               | tools, of which GPT-4 is the leading edge and most widely
               | known, and make useful products with them. And whether
               | that is going to be a big deal or a fad is, as yet,
               | unproven.
               | 
               | It is super easy to say, in 2023, that "blockchain was
               | never going to revolutionize finance". But in 2013, that
               | was an unknown. For what it's worth, you could go back to
               | my commenting history in that period of time to find _me_
               | saying  "bitcoin is never going to revolutionize
               | finance"; I was a skeptic then. But that doesn't mean I
               | was definitely going to be right, I was just educated-
               | guessing, just like the people on the other side of the
               | conversation. That guess looks to have been prescient
               | with the benefit of hindsight, but I've been wrong about
               | lots of stuff too - I thought the iPad was stupid, I
               | hated "Web 2.0", I thought the Facebook IPO was doomed,
               | the list goes on and on.
               | 
               | My best guess is that building products on top of
               | "generative AI" is going to prove to be a big deal, but I
               | don't _know_ that, and it 's hard not to be influenced by
               | an ongoing hype cycle, is all I'm saying.
               | 
               | > For any AI application, the world is different. If we
               | simply replace AI with "automated system" we can see why.
               | Pretty much every company would like to replace their
               | workers with machines. And maybe machines can do things
               | that humans would never be able to do (for example,
               | search the entire internet for a very specific topic).
               | 
               | Sure, but again, we just don't know yet if the "AI
               | Engineering" thing this article is talking about is going
               | to, in any way, turn into any of that, or if it's going
               | to be more of a bust.
        
         | spmurrayzzz wrote:
         | > So is the "engineering" part of this finessing the input and
         | massaging the output?
         | 
         | I don't know if I'll ever use the phrase "AI Engineer" myself,
         | but there's plenty of meaningful engineering work in that space
         | that strays pretty far from just calling some provider's APIs.
         | A few that come to mind just for LLMs:
         | 
         | - Custom fine-tuning of foundational models both in the classic
         | sense and with more modern strategies like PEFT/QLoRA
         | 
         | - Data preprocessing pipelines to help automate fine-tuning,
         | vectorization, etc
         | 
         | - Continuous integration suites to evaluate models on standard
         | benchmarks as they change over time
         | 
         | - Vector db / semantic search engineering to help decorate
         | context windows effectively
         | 
         | - Architecting ensemble models infrastructure to accommodate
         | more complex task processing
         | 
         | I think many of those probably going into what folks are
         | calling the "MLOps" bucket, but I think its a more broadly a
         | combination of research, application engineering, and
         | operations engineering.
         | 
         | Edit: for clarity, my position is that the line in the article
         | between AI Engineer and ML Engineer need not be that bright.
         | Just like software engineers today that write/operate their own
         | devops tooling to deploy and manage the apps they build.
        
         | buffalobuffalo wrote:
         | I'm also a skeptic, but for a slightly different reason. There
         | are currently two types of business use cases that seem to be
         | the focal point of this generation of AI.
         | 
         | 1) Tooling. This one I think will probably bear fruit. It will
         | likely result in huge productivity gains (I mean, it already
         | has for me). But i don't know if it will result in a paradigm
         | shift.
         | 
         | 2) Agents. This is where most of the hype is focused. The idea
         | is that you can cut humans out of the loop. If doable, this
         | would be revolutionary. But from what I've seen, the currently
         | technology is not likely to do this. The reason is that agents
         | that are required to perform a long series of independent
         | actions without human intervention can fall victim to an
         | accumulation of small errors that occur in each step. This kind
         | of "snowball effect" will often result in complete garbage
         | being produced.
         | 
         | As a result of point two, I think a lot of the new AI products
         | are likely to fall flat. And as this happens, the hype/funding
         | will dry up pretty quickly. All the same, I think this will
         | have more positive economic outcome than all the crypto stuff
         | did.
        
         | phillipcarter wrote:
         | > Where where these experts hiding five years ago?
         | 
         | Prompt engineering has been around for a few years already, and
         | there are a lot of existing ML engineers who have been able to
         | quickly learn how to adapt their skills.
        
         | minimaxir wrote:
         | > Where where these experts hiding five years ago?
         | 
         | You could use GPT-3 in 2020 but it was expensive and difficult
         | to make it behave. Iterations of GPT-3 starting in 2021-2022
         | allowed it to obey commands (InstructGPT) and made it more
         | feasible to "engineer" with it.
         | 
         | The true inflection point was due to _free, accessible and
         | good-enough-quality AI generation_ in the form of Midjourney
         | and ChatGPT.
        
       | Der_Einzige wrote:
       | If you are someone who was working in LLMs/Generative AI before
       | it got "cool", The market has fundamentally changed and changed
       | extremely in your favor.
       | 
       | Talent is extremely scarce and expensive right now in this space.
       | Ask for well above FAANG compensation. Try to shop around for
       | offers. I had 4 offers and a bidding war for my talent (with no
       | leetcode - but I have an extensive github and publications about
       | LLMs), when previously these same companies would have brutally
       | leetcoded me.
       | 
       | I thought that there would be a ton of people getting really good
       | really fast with Generative AI. It turns out that most people are
       | terrible at using the tools, and there's even research about this
       | right now - https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3544548.3581388
        
         | sanderjd wrote:
         | I'm someone who would like to get "really good really fast",
         | but have found that the on-ramps remain pretty weak. For
         | instance, I have yet to find a good book on the subject. There
         | are a ton of tutorials and articles, but it's maddening to try
         | to cobble together any depth of understanding from those little
         | nuggets. And there are tons of good papers on how the systems
         | actually work, but these are not very useful for people who are
         | new to this set of tools to figure out how to use them to
         | create useful things.
         | 
         | But I think this will hole will close up incredibly quickly
         | over the next six months. (And it's yet another really good
         | opportunity for people like you to be involved in that gold
         | rush!)
         | 
         | Edit to add: For instance, the article lightly lambasts
         | peoples' recommendations to read up on AI / ML fundamentals,
         | and contains this:
         | 
         | > _n the near future, nobody will recommend starting in AI
         | Engineering by reading Attention is All You Need, just like you
         | do not start driving by reading the schematics for the Ford
         | Model T.
         | 
         | But, amazingly, _it doesn't actually suggest an alternative
         | starting point*. There is this call to action about the
         | conference, but presumably that will mostly be people who have
         | already figured this out to some degree. But (to carry on the
         | author's analogy) what is the recommendation for driver's ed?
        
           | swyx wrote:
           | we haven't launched it widely yet but if you peek at the top
           | level nav you'll find the course we are working on :)
           | https://www.latent.space/s/university
        
             | sanderjd wrote:
             | How about that! :)
             | 
             | One interesting thing is that there do seem to be _courses_
             | available for this, but I still haven 't come across any
             | _books_. Maybe this is just because I 'm a dinosaur, but I
             | really feel like what I'm missing is a book about this,
             | with a good Introduction and Chapter 1 motivating the
             | subject and giving a lay of the land. I'm sure every techie
             | publisher will have one of these by the end of the year,
             | but so far I really haven't seen what I think I'm looking
             | for in this space.
             | 
             | (But having said that, you can bet I'll check out your
             | course.)
        
               | swyx wrote:
               | thank you! yeah i guess its easier to iterate on a course
               | than a book, but ofc we are also effecitvely writing and
               | market testing the book contents. having written my own
               | book before i'm not particularly keen on doing that again
               | but am trying to work with partners to do this :)
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | Ha, totally get it.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | Has "robopsychologist" shown up in job ads yet?
        
       | minimaxir wrote:
       | I would never be able to be hired as an "AI Engineer" or "Prompt
       | Engineer" despite my extensive AI portfolio because my job title
       | is Data Scientist and the discrepancy would confuse most hiring
       | managers.
       | 
       | Job titles are moving faster than career ladders.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | AI engineer is the new webdeveloper.
        
       | 29athrowaway wrote:
       | When you see the taxonomy of AI and ML you will learn that saying
       | "AI engineer" is vague and essentially useless.
       | 
       | Do you use depth first search at work? Congratulations, you are
       | an AI engineer.
       | 
       | Do you use any form of search or information retrieval at work?
       | Congratulations again.
       | 
       | Do you have a system that makes decisions based on a decision
       | tree? Again, congratulations.
       | 
       | In fact, stop using "AI" at all. Your washing machine is an AI
       | agent, it uses fuzzy logic.
       | 
       | Are you using LLMs? then just say you work with LLMs.
       | 
       | Search engineers don't call themselves AI engineers.
        
       | ilaksh wrote:
       | I mean, I consider myself an effective "AI Integration Engineer"
       | but I _have_ done an Andrew Ng ML Coursera course and also built
       | a MLP in C++ from scratch. But none of that really matters when
       | it comes to applying something like GPT or Stable Diffusion to a
       | particular application. You just send appropriate text to a model
       | via an API call.
       | 
       | I think "AI Integration Engineer" is a bit more of an accurate
       | title because usually it's about integrating AI into existing
       | products or domains. And "AI Engineer" by itself sounds a little
       | bit like you might be claiming to be a PhD. But just a bit. I
       | think it's fair enough to shorten it to AI Engineer though so we
       | don't all have to type out "integration" over and over.
        
       | supportengineer wrote:
       | There are a couple types of roles that sounds really interesting
       | to me. One would be taking some proprietary data and training LLM
       | in a format it could use. One company I know has a database of
       | cars. They want to train their LLM with some inventory facts like
       | "We have a Ford Mustang on the lot whose vin is ABC123 and it has
       | the following features...". And then another role would be
       | writing the prompts for API calls to the LLM. "Write a report on
       | all cars currently in the lot which are available for sale and
       | have the following features...."
        
         | ilaksh wrote:
         | What I have done for a similar use case is to have ChatGPT via
         | the OpenAI API generate SQL (or KQL) based on the user request
         | and then run that query and display the results (with some
         | prose if appropriate). Works fairly well even with
         | GPT-3.5-turbo. With GPT-4 can handle more complex requests
         | (slower). It could even create a custom Chart.js chart on the
         | fly if requested.
         | 
         | To me this demonstrates that there is a specific job here, even
         | if you don't want to call it "engineering". Which I would argue
         | is the correct category of job at least.
         | 
         | The above project was presented as "let's put a table of data
         | in a vector database and then search it using the embedding of
         | the user query". Here you were suggesting fine-tuning an LLM
         | with the structured data. Again, it makes more sense to just
         | generate the SQL and leave it in the relational database.
         | 
         | So there are a few basic things about how this stuff works that
         | are not obvious and require some specialization. Even for
         | programmers.
         | 
         | Right now I think it's fair enough to put it in its own job
         | category since there are plenty of software engineers that just
         | don't have any experience with generative AI. But within a few
         | years, I think knowing how to integrate generative AI into a
         | product will be considered core knowledge for a software
         | engineer. So using LLMs or Stable Diffusion will become bullet
         | points on a job requirements list.
        
         | Jtsummers wrote:
         | > They want to train their LLM with some inventory facts
         | like...
         | 
         | So are they actually intending to retrain their LLM every time
         | the inventory changes? Because, otherwise, how is it going to
         | "know" the current state of the inventory? This is useless
         | after a single sale or a single new delivery without
         | retraining. (And it's likely useless before that anyways.)
         | 
         | And if they already have a database of inventory data with all
         | this then they could just generate a report the "old fashioned"
         | way that's worked for decades.
        
           | wizofaus wrote:
           | I would expect the solution is to take the NL question and
           | get GPT to transform it into a SQL (or similar) statement to
           | extract the data. Then another call (or set of calls) to
           | generate "reports" summarizing the data returned by the DB
           | query.
        
             | Jtsummers wrote:
             | That's a _very_ generous take. But that application would
             | be far more useful than just car inventories (the limited
             | application described) and not trained in the manner
             | described (on inventory data). It would be trained on
             | transforming natural language to SQL (or other) query
             | languages, and the application of that is exactly what we
             | 're seeing with code generation applications of LLMs (to
             | the extent they're presently useful).
        
               | wizofaus wrote:
               | Existing LLMs are already pretty good at this, no? The
               | tricky part is mapping however the NL question refers to
               | the various types of data to the actual column names,
               | which is where I'd imagine some prompt engineering (or
               | pretraining) would be necessary.
        
               | wizofaus wrote:
               | BTW I tried it with ChatGPT 3.5 - with a prompt that
               | roughly described the database schema and a question "I
               | need to know the manufacturer for the vehicle with VIN
               | X7820-A and to confirm whether it has the feature 'rear
               | camera' installed", it came back with
               | SELECT TVehicles.Make,             CASE
               | WHEN TVehFeatures.FName = 'rear camera' THEN 'Installed'
               | ELSE 'Not Installed'            END AS RearCameraStatus
               | FROM TVehicles         JOIN TVehFeatures ON
               | TVehicles.TV_ID = TVehFeatures.TV_ID         WHERE
               | TVehicles.VIN = 'X7820-A';
               | 
               | One interesting thing to note - I didn't tell it that
               | "Make" and "Manufacturer" are the same thing.
               | 
               | I even went the next level and asked it to write me code
               | to execute the query and generate appropriate HTML output
               | from the results. It didn't quite manage it to handle any
               | possible SQL query (remembering that the query itself has
               | been dynamically generated), but wasn't far off. My
               | description of how the output should look was simply
               | "sleek and modern", and it came up with CSS that could be
               | reasonably said to fill that brief.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | john2x wrote:
             | At which point, maybe a "GUI-interface" will be cheaper to
             | build and maintain in the long run.
             | 
             | Now if AI could automagically update inventory data with
             | what's actually physically happening on the lot, that would
             | be cool.
        
         | wredue wrote:
         | This doesn't seem like a thing any business should need AI for.
         | 
         | Filtering a known list for a report takes a few seconds at
         | most, and is much more reliable than LLMs.
        
       | vsareto wrote:
       | For this conference, I think it would also be great to have a
       | presentation about job requirements at various levels, then
       | continue to cite that presentation often.
       | 
       | It's important to have an on-ramp for people interested in this
       | space with well-known requirements to aim for.
       | 
       | This also makes it easy for companies to know what they're
       | getting with this title. The ambiguity of full stack engineers
       | meant that it was a dumping ground for responsibilities.
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | It feels far too early to me for there to be any clarity on job
         | requirements.
         | 
         | If I was hiring for an "AI engineer", I'd want to see examples
         | of things they had built.
        
         | swyx wrote:
         | (author here) one of my ideas of research for this blogpost was
         | to actually ask a few employer friends who want to hire AI
         | Engineers for a job description, and then put out a generic JD
         | that people can use and clone (kind of a SAFE for AI Engineers
         | if you think about it). however I feel like it is too early
         | still to prescribe something. I'll maybe put up a strawman for
         | the conference and would love feedback then.
        
       | spaintech wrote:
       | My thought on what an AI engineer is; an individual who uses AI
       | and machine learning techniques to develop applications and
       | systems that can help organizations increase efficiency, reduce
       | costs, increase profits, and make better business decisions 1 .
       | 
       | AI engineers play a crucial role in helping enterprises leverage
       | the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3 and
       | beyond, this means that they will,
       | 
       | "Develop Domain-Specific Models" AI engineers can fine-tune LLMs
       | to create domain-specific models to ensure that the data and the
       | business process align to provide more context. For example, a
       | model fine-tuned on medical literature can assist doctors in
       | diagnosing diseases or answering patient queries, ect.
       | 
       | "Data Preparation and Management" By this, I presume they will be
       | involved in cleaning the data, dealing with missing or
       | inconsistent data, and ensuring the data is representative of the
       | task the model will be performing.
       | 
       | "Integration with Existing Systems" they will help integrate
       | these AI models into the existing IT infrastructure of an
       | enterprise. This can involve developing APIs, designing user
       | interfaces, and ensuring the model's outputs can be used by other
       | systems or processes.
       | 
       | Etc... I believe that they enable organizations transform data
       | into knowledge and ultimately, into wisdom - the highest level of
       | data maturity. This is particularly true when dealing with
       | domain-specific models, which can provide highly targeted and
       | context-specific insights. When you can reach a level of data
       | maturity that enbles actions on data, this is where AI will drive
       | the change that is just starting. It's very exciting to watch it
       | unravel, not because of the possibility of generating a sentient
       | machine, but with the possibility that will drive new fields of
       | discovery that has been under our noses, and these tools will
       | help us make sence of it all, IMHO.
        
       | cj wrote:
       | I can see a world where "ML Engineer" (or similar) is someone
       | that's hired to solve a known problem (whether it be with
       | classifiers, LLMs, neural nets, etc), whereas a "AI Engineer" (or
       | whatever the title) is hired to figure out how the hell to
       | capitalize on the AI hype, without a specific problem to solve.
       | 
       | IMO right now we're entering the "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
       | in Gartner's hype cycle model.
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle#/media/File...
       | 
       | Lots of companies want to jump on the AI bandwagon, but they
       | don't really know what to do or how to leverage it.
       | 
       | What the LLM community needs now is for companies to leverage and
       | productize these LLM models for truly game changing use cases. If
       | that doesn't happen soon, the hype will start to fade and lose
       | momentum ("trough of disillusionment").
       | 
       | I'd really love to see some killer use cases emerge soon.
        
         | swyx wrote:
         | (author here) There are at least 4 killer apps ($100m/yr
         | revenue potential) so far:
         | 
         | 1. Generative Text for writing - Jasper AI going 0 to $75m ARR
         | in 2 years
         | 
         | 2. Generative Art for non-artists - Midjourney has by some
         | accounts $80m ARR
         | 
         | 3. Copilot for knowledge workers - GitHub's Copilot has roughly
         | 50-80m ARR as well
         | 
         | 4. Conversational AI UX - ChatGPT probably has >$100m ARR by
         | now, Bing Chat has brought $m's worth of attention to Bing
         | 
         | (More on agents as the immature #5:
         | https://www.latent.space/p/agents)
         | 
         | what else do you need to see to believe? (geniune question)
        
           | onion2k wrote:
           | 75+80+80+100 is PS335m per year in revenue. For a point of
           | comparison, that's approximately 11 hours of Google's
           | revenue.
        
             | dist-epoch wrote:
             | I find myself using Bing Chat more and more instead of
             | googling specific questions. And no, hallucinations are not
             | a problem, because the questions are concrete and the
             | answers immediately verifiable.
        
             | pclmulqdq wrote:
             | The innovator's dilemma on display.
        
             | staunton wrote:
             | Consider the possibility that may be a point in a
             | technology's evolution where you can "look at what is being
             | done with it" and conclude that it's useful _from that_ ,
             | rather than just comparing revenue figures across domains.
        
               | ImaCake wrote:
               | Yeah the dollar values here are a distraction. I use
               | copilot everyday at my Data Science job. Its useful!
               | 
               | What we are not considering is integrating a custom
               | trained LLM into our work because the tech just isn't
               | there yet.
        
             | riku_iki wrote:
             | but rate of growth is likely 100-1000 times higher
        
               | ducharmdev wrote:
               | On a smaller time scale, is rate of growth that
               | meaningful?
               | 
               | I guess I'm just thinking, until we see the how this all
               | pans out over the next decade, we don't really know if
               | the current rate of growth will hold, or if it'll
               | plateau/slow down.
        
               | 0xEFF wrote:
               | Yes, it's meaningful. If Google doesn't fix search in the
               | next decade then Bing (or some other winner) will be the
               | service earning Google's ARR in 11 hours.
        
               | riku_iki wrote:
               | > On a smaller time scale, is rate of growth that
               | meaningful?
               | 
               | revenue in initial stage of extreme growth is much less
               | meaningful.
        
           | cj wrote:
           | > what else do you need to see to believe? (geniune question)
           | 
           | It's not that I don't believe in LLMs.
           | 
           | It's that the level of media attention AI is getting isn't
           | backed by the same level of real world use cases, yet. (All
           | of the use cases you listed are awesome, no denying that, but
           | I don't think those alone justify the amount of hype in
           | mainstream media)
        
             | swyx wrote:
             | i mean, theres nothing i can do about mainstream media
             | hype, but i guess my main point is this is a growing field
             | with real money and utility behind it, and so will
             | professionalize. if I am correct on that then AI Engineer
             | will be a thing (because it is Least Bad title for the
             | thing)
        
               | skepticATX wrote:
               | AI Engineers are just software engineers who use specific
               | tools. If we want to use a fancy title then that's fine,
               | I guess. But let's not pretend that a typical dev can't
               | easily learn vector DBs, data pre-processing, fine
               | tuning, etc.
               | 
               | None of these things require specialized knowledge in the
               | way that say being an AI researcher would.
        
               | jsight wrote:
               | You could say the same about things like SREs or Devops.
               | In fact, many of them transitioned from regular "software
               | engineer" to these roles simply by learning closely
               | related skills.
               | 
               | That won't stop the industry from inventing new, useful
               | titles.
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | The longer HN continues to doubt in AI's deliverables, the
           | bigger our revenues and our moats can grow. Don't tell them.
           | 
           | (It's not that hard to hit $1M ARR with a good AI product. So
           | many classes of new products and solutions have opened up.)
        
             | constantly wrote:
             | I'm sure I could find a similar comment about
             | cryptocurrency or NFTs. There's always snake oil salesmen.
        
             | jsight wrote:
             | I remember thinking this about Tesla too. They built a
             | fairly massive automaker while everyone kept saying their
             | whole approach was fundamentally doomed.
        
           | mschuster91 wrote:
           | I'd add these use cases:
           | 
           | 5. automated processing of unstructured paperwork and
           | ingestion into ERP systems. Basically, upload _any_ kind of
           | bill and get all of the information into the system, not just
           | "find out the total amount". That can save so much in
           | accounting it's not even funny any more.
           | 
           | 6. related to this, something that sorts incoming emails.
           | Classify stuff into "look into it _now_ " vs "look into it
           | later" vs "yet another bullshit marketing email".
        
             | oblio wrote:
             | My problem with this is that AI at the moment is a kind of
             | 80% thing.
             | 
             | And you want to plug that into ERPs and accounting?!?
             | 
             | We don't even really understand its failure modes.
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | The tech problems will eventually get sorted out I'm sure,
           | the most uncertain problems are legal. The world's copyright
           | law is not even up to date enough to deal with the internet
           | without crappy patchwork workarounds (like Youtube's
           | contentID nonsense), much less LLMs.
           | 
           | Steam just banned AI art and text assets and built in
           | generators because they don't want the liability of hosting
           | it. Midjourney is getting sued by Getty, Copilot breaks GPL
           | licenses and was even facing class action lawsuits, OpenAI
           | trained using copyrighted and even pirated content, LLama
           | models are unavailable for commercial use, AGI alarmists want
           | to ban the whole thing altogether, etc.
           | 
           | A lot of end usage depends on how all of this plays out in
           | courts over the next few years. Why would people dump capital
           | into something that will be declared illegal?
        
             | staunton wrote:
             | If people get used to LLMs governing their lives, those
             | copyright laws will "just" be changed. People will not
             | accept a legal challenge taking away their toys. Granted,
             | we're not at that point yet. But the window for the legal
             | stuff _really_ making a difference is slowly closing.
             | Meanwhile, the legal system is pretty slow.
        
             | jsight wrote:
             | Because if they don't, their competitors will, even if
             | those competitors are overseas in a more lax environment.
             | 
             | Either IP laws will catch up, or the countries with better
             | IP laws will become more competitively successful.
        
         | rvz wrote:
         | We are indeed at the "Peak of Inflated Expectations" in the
         | Garter hype cycle. Everyone is screaming that we are out of the
         | AI winter and throwing LLMs at every problem.
         | 
         | > What the LLM community needs now is for companies to leverage
         | and productize these LLM models for truly game changing use
         | cases.
         | 
         | The killer serious use-case has always been summarization of
         | existing text. That's it. Everything else is a constant flow of
         | creative bull-shitting from a black box AI requiring triple
         | checking everything before using the output, meaning that the
         | output can't be trusted.
         | 
         | > If that doesn't happen soon, the hype will start to fade and
         | lose momentum ("trough of disillusionment").
         | 
         | I think they will realize that there is more to "AI" than LLMs,
         | just like the hype with CNNs and the like.
        
           | visarga wrote:
           | Not just summarisation, information extraction in general.
           | LLMs are great data normalisers.
        
             | z3c0 wrote:
             | No. No they are not. Do not keep proliferating this idea,
             | as there are real consequences. Your input only informs the
             | likelihood of the output. There is no model actually
             | extrapolating rules from the information, so the premise of
             | LLMs being extractive is 100% verifiably false. They
             | summarize well due to being handed a roughly correct
             | arrangement of tokens to mimic the order of. This should
             | not be confused with extraction.
             | 
             | To put it simply, keep falling for that, and it'll bite you
             | in the ass.
        
         | yacine_ wrote:
         | The right way to leverage AI is to use it to do ye olde
         | engineering, faster. Actually, most AI use cases are in fact
         | that! Ye olde engineering - data pipelines, automation. Stuff
         | we've been doing since before I was born.
         | 
         | Everything else - transformative tech, will hit the open domain
         | fairly quickly, is my bet. Similar to databases.
        
         | richardw wrote:
         | I've been thinking the leading edge is already in the trough of
         | disillusionment! At least on HN etc.
         | 
         | We see lots of reports of limitations on HN. Those in the know
         | don't trust it nearly as much as the public and all the CEO's
         | of businesses drooling to install AI and have the money go up.
         | Going to have to dig our way through those issues to get real
         | value.
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | Well you have to consider the inherent bias on HN, in that
           | the trough of disillusionment is HN's default state of mind
           | regarding literally every topic. It's really rare to see a
           | thread where most of the comments aren't negative.
        
       | intellectronica wrote:
       | In my experience people who make dismissive comments about AI (in
       | its current form) and AI Engineering as a discipline tend to have
       | very little experience with and superficial understanding of AI.
       | Once you start using it seriously as part of your engineering
       | stack it quickly becomes clear that there's a lot of detail and
       | complexity that more than justify specialisation.
        
         | z3c0 wrote:
         | Heavily disagree, and this just seems like posturing from the
         | other side of things. I understand AI rather heavily, and have
         | been a part of the scene far before the explosion of even the
         | first GPT model.
         | 
         | Frankly, I've been quite irked by all the people who claim
         | themselves "ML engineer" when most of what they do is glue
         | huggingface models together. They're doing none of the work
         | required to make models, which is quite extensive. They
         | understand very little about the models they wield.
         | 
         | This new wave, I find even more irksome. "Prompt engineer" and
         | "AI engineer" and aren't much more than pseudoscientists who
         | fanangle API inputs until they get what they want. This is in
         | stark contrast to all the maths I perform to understand a
         | model's performance.
        
           | intellectronica wrote:
           | I think you've just proven my point.
        
             | z3c0 wrote:
             | On reddit, this might seem like a burn, but here, you need
             | to explain that claim and not just hope somebody rides with
             | it. How is tinkering with an API an actual understanding of
             | AI? Please actually explain
        
       | Zetobal wrote:
       | It's not the AI Engineer it's the AI Operator that everyone is
       | looking for.
        
         | sanderjd wrote:
         | "Operator" feels right to me as well here.
        
           | john2x wrote:
           | Nice. One step closer to having Smooth Operator be a real
           | title
        
       | avereveard wrote:
       | The rise of the monkey king of infinite monkeys
       | 
       | I'm using LLM for many things, but let's not pretend it's
       | engineering
        
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