[HN Gopher] Russian paramilitary chief says his forces will turn...
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Russian paramilitary chief says his forces will turn around
Author : veer
Score : 209 points
Date : 2023-06-24 17:49 UTC (5 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
| agd wrote:
| Looks like Prigozhin has got what he wanted?
|
| - current military leaders are being removed
|
| - new contract cancelled
|
| Makes Putin look rather weak.
| nailer wrote:
| Which contract specifically was cancelled?
| meepmorp wrote:
| Russian MoD was trying to bring Wagner troops under their
| direct control.
| jacquesm wrote:
| It definitely looks like they succeeded in that.
| agd wrote:
| I believe they were trying to force all Wagner fighters to
| sign a new contract with the Ministry of Defence by July 1st.
| Apparently this is no longer the case, although nothing
| confirmed 100% yet.
| BasedAnon wrote:
| Does anyone else find the mercenary industry a strange
| thing in war? Business dealings made under the assumptions
| of the status quo, between entities who are able to
| entirely change what the status quo is in an instant
| dboreham wrote:
| Get paid in gold or diamonds. Also you can take a bet
| that property given to you in occupied territory will
| remain in your possession after hostilities. This is what
| Hitler did in ww2 to retain his generals' loyalty.
| anigbrowl wrote:
| Thus it has ever been.
| 082349872349872 wrote:
| Many have mentioned Machiavelli on the untrustworthiness
| of mercenaries, but looking at it from their point of
| view (eg. Xenophon's 10'000) I'd guess most mercenaries
| are well aware that with little loyalty going the other
| direction, they're the most likely to get tossed under
| the proverbial bus/off the proverbial troika.
| coffeebeqn wrote:
| Shoigu and Gerasimov? I very much doubt it. Any sources on
| that?
| agd wrote:
| Being reported that Russian State Media said this. E.g.
| https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672665481055010816
| Simon_O_Rourke wrote:
| > Makes Putin look rather weak.
|
| That's the problem for these kinds of strongmen dictators - any
| sign of weakness is a major political problem and one which he
| may not outlive. And in fairness to Stalin (and you won't hear
| me complementing Stalin too much usually), he didn't flee
| Moscow in 1941 when other armies were approaching.
| lettergram wrote:
| I haven't seen anything reported
|
| At this point, I think Prigozhin is more likely trying to get a
| deal to leave russia and keep his billions & life.
|
| Highly doubt Wagner will be kept around and likely the defense
| minister will be kept. That said, the defense minister ran away
| in the fighting, probably justification to sack him
| hutzlibu wrote:
| I don't think anything is settled yet. But yes, Putin is weak.
|
| Everyone knows, even in russia, that the war is a desaster.
|
| And now Prigoshin and his Wagner forces, who stood for the only
| few victories in the last time, turned against Putin. (Even
| stating, that the war was wrong in the first place and that
| there never was a threat from Ukraine towards russia.)
|
| And Wagner has the reputation of being ruthless and efficient.
|
| The common national guards really don't want to fight them.
| They could surely bomb them all to death, but then who will
| fight and win for russia?
|
| There is currently a ukraine offensive going on. And Wagner
| occupied an important military HQ in rostov. They will never
| forgive Prigoshin for that, that is sure, but he plays the only
| card he has - brute force.
|
| And they came already within 250 km of moscow with little
| resistance. But that is also, because they don't want to
| actually fight.
| lamontcg wrote:
| The most likely answer for what is going on here is the one right
| on the surface. Prigozhin realized that he could try to take
| Moscow, but he'd ultimately be defeated, Putin was already gone.
| He acted without any political support and without having a bunch
| of aces up your sleeve an attempted coup is destined to fail. It
| would also drag units away from Ukraine to deal with him and
| undermine Russian efforts in the face of the Ukrainian offensive.
| Prigozhin is still fighting against Ukraine and probably
| recognized that he would go down in Russian history as a traitor.
| It was very likely just a rash miscalculation by Prigozhin. He's
| hoping to use this as political leverage now, but my guess would
| be that he winds up dead pretty soon. I doubt there's any 4
| dimensional chess going on.
|
| If this is the case, then this isn't going to be the Russian
| Civil War/Coup that people had hoped to end the war. Russia is
| certainly a mess though, and this might cause other political
| forces in Russia to act.
| zepearl wrote:
| > _Prigozhin realized that he could try to take Moscow, but he
| 'd ultimately be defeated, Putin was already gone._
|
| Cannot be - on this level it's basic/simple strategy, if he's
| as good as he says he is then he would have forseen such
| situation => I don't believe in a "sudden
| realization/enlightenment" by Prigozhin.
| ineedasername wrote:
| Yes, I don't think Prigozhin had any sudden realization that
| there was a gap in his plan. My guess is that he was in some
| way out maneuvered. I don't mean that purely in a military
| sense of maneuvering troops/resources etc. From the long
| history of brutal internal struggles and backstabbing, my
| shot in the dark guess is that he was counting on support
| from key individuals in power and it either never
| materialized or was withdrawn.
|
| I think it's also possible that it was never a legitimate
| attempt on his part. He may never have expected it to
| succeed, but it would cause enough problems that it forced
| Russian leadership to back away and be willing to cut a deal
| that lets Prigozhin keep his life (for now) in exile. He'd
| been incrementally pushing things for months for a variety of
| reasons (real anger over lack of material support? Pure power
| play? Who knows). But unlike critical journalists, oligarchs
| and political enemies that have been assassinated over the
| years, Prigozhin had an army to use as leverage. Though I
| still won't be surprised if he's the next person to fall out
| a window or die from a novel poisoning method.
| jncfhnb wrote:
| [dead]
| rossdavidh wrote:
| I'm not sure. Surovikin was generally regarded as a friend of
| Prigozhin, and so I was surprised when he publicly appealed for
| Wagner to stop. Now I'm wondering if it was part of the plan
| all along? Prigozhin exposes Putin as a paper tiger, now sits
| back (surrounded by tens of thousands of troops to protect him)
| and waits for Ukraine to win, without him being blamed for it.
| Then he steps into the Kremlin. Maybe?
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| But this provides interesting signal: under certain
| circumstances, Putin is willing to flee via private aircraft
| for safety. Whether intentional or not, stimulus and response
| has been observed.
| paxys wrote:
| Another signal - a sparsely equipped army of a few thousand
| can march in from Ukraine and take Moscow in a matter of
| hours, facing minimal resistance. Regardless of the outcome
| I'm sure NATO has been taking detailed notes.
| baybal2 wrote:
| [dead]
| NicoJuicy wrote:
| You're forgetting that most people in Russia support
| Wagner, which could be the reason they could advance so
| easily.
| coldtea wrote:
| They faced minimal resistance because those in power wanted
| to give them minimal resistance (not to stir up bad blood
| before the matter is resolved otherwise). If they were an
| actual emeny unit (not an ex-ally in negotiations, which
| was the case) they'd be obliterated by air and land in
| minutes.
|
| And of course marching towards Moscow only staying
| hundrends of kilometers away from it (while being let to
| march), and "taking Moscow in a matter of hours" is a
| totally different thing.
| tguvot wrote:
| >. If they were an actual emeny unit (not an ex-ally in
| negotiations, which was the case) they'd be obliterated
| by air and land in minutes.
|
| i think you overestimate russian military might. russian
| military is second strongest military in russia those
| days
| TeMPOraL wrote:
| This I don't think is very surprising. Unless the defense
| expects it and has time to prepare, the speeds achievable
| by military vehicles, especially combined with well-
| developed road infrastructure of modern urbanized
| countries, means that the attacker can easily cover large
| distances fast.
|
| In other words: APCs on a highway are not that different
| from intercity buses, and highways are designed to let you
| cross the country quickly.
| tguvot wrote:
| russian army did try to slow him down from the air. but
| they managed to take down 6 helicopters and one airplane
| (flying command center). all the army/etc on his way was
| simply surrendering
| TeMPOraL wrote:
| Right. It would've been a different story if the Russian
| army treated them as enemy - their air forces could've
| stopped the convoy dead at any point of their choosing.
|
| Highways let you move fast only as long as they're intact
| and no one is shooting at you; otherwise, they make you
| an easy target. Russian army experienced that first-hand
| in the first two months of their invasion of Ukraine.
| tguvot wrote:
| >Right. It would've been a different story if the Russian
| army treated them as enemy - their air forces could've
| stopped the convoy dead at any point of their choosing.
|
| my point was that they tried and they failed. wagner has
| a bunch of manpads and few pantsir sam systems. they
| tried to bomb them on highway from planes but missed and
| kill civilians in track. they also tried to shoot at them
| missles at voronezh but blew up some petrol refinary.
| they also tried to bomb some bridge to block road to
| moscow - but also missed
| TeMPOraL wrote:
| Is this confirmed? I stayed away from the news firehose
| this time, and only followed BBC live reporting, and IIRC
| there was no confirmation there of any bombing attempt,
| successful or otherwise.
| tguvot wrote:
| there are videos of helis shooting refinery and planes
| bombing bridge (followed by video of somebody driving
| near the bridge and holes in highway or near it). about
| track on highway - there are videos of it burning with
| commentary that plane try to bomb wagner convoy but
| missed
| pixl97 wrote:
| I can only imagine in the US that if we could not use
| aircraft directly on the convoy, say they have very good
| air defense, we'd have dumped the bridges on the
| interstates in less than a day.
| TeMPOraL wrote:
| Yes, and I'm pretty sure Russia could do that too - if
| they were getting Blitzkrieged by some outside enemy
| force. Here, it was a theoretically friendly and _small_
| force, that suddenly turned around and drove towards
| Moscow. Given how much damage blowing up bridges and
| highways would do to the country, and somewhat unclear
| threat from the approaching mercenaries, I don 't think
| anyone on the defense side considered dropping a bridge
| on the highway to be a reasonable move.
| hurflmurfl wrote:
| From what I've heard (personal hearsay, got no
| independent sources), some excavators were sent to ruin
| highways.
|
| Edit: here's a link but this is not on the main highway.
| Unsure of the scale of this "operation" and if this was
| ordered from top brass or local initiative.
|
| https://meduza.io/news/2023/06/24/v-lipetskoy-oblasti-
| gde-na...
| tguvot wrote:
| they did bomb one of their own bridges (there is a
| video). and there were rumors that they plan to blow up
| few more
| hutzlibu wrote:
| "I don't think anyone on the defense side considered
| dropping a bridge on the highway to be a reasonable
| move."
|
| It surely was considered. I can imagine in the state of
| panic even tactical nukes were considered, but sure, not
| reasonable.
|
| But if Wagner forces would have actually pushed through,
| then they definitely would have blown up bridges, if the
| alternative would have been Moscow under siege or house
| to house fighting.
| tomatotomato37 wrote:
| Yeah if aliens for some reason wanted an invasion of the
| US homeland by zombie mindcontrolling the army of one
| other country (and had some way to negate nukes) their
| best chance wouldn't be China or the EU but Canada and
| Mexico, just because of the developed land transport
| infrastructure between the countries
| maxander wrote:
| It's not news to anyone that NATO could win a
| (conventional) war with Russia. The important result is
| that any sizable chunk of military force in Russia itself
| stands a good chance of it.
| psychphysic wrote:
| I wonder if the chance of tactical nuclear weapons being
| used would go up in a Russian civil war.
|
| Especially if there's been reports it's seriously been
| considered in Ukraine.
| usrusr wrote:
| Why risk nuclear armageddon when you can conveniently
| switch sides at the slightest occasion. It's not like
| armies marching to shuffle a few chairs in big offices
| were a matter of deep ideological conflict or worse.
| AnimalMuppet wrote:
| _If_ they 're already past Russia's defensive front.
| coldtea wrote:
| Why, did people expect him to be an idiot or go Avengers
| style and fight himself, perhaps with bare hands? Of course
| he'll go somewhere safe and work from there. That's what
| leaders all over the world too in such crisis moments, if an
| attack is suspected.
| jpmoral wrote:
| Wagner claimed a strength of 25k, actual number advancing
| on Moscow was probably lower. Not a good look for someone
| who has cultivated a strongman image for decades to be
| fleeing from that.
| lockhouse wrote:
| To be clear, that is the established protocol for the
| commander and chief of most militaries. That's why such a big
| deal was made when Zelensky didn't leave Kyiv despite
| advancing Russian forces. If there was a credible threat to
| President Biden he would be on Air Force One immediately.
| yieldcrv wrote:
| I read the defense minister resigned in a deal negotiated by
| Lukashenko, and charges dropped against Prigozhin
|
| That's an absolute win, for Prigozhin, since that was the
| original goal
|
| this internal issue has nothing to do with anyone outside of
| that region
|
| thats a pretty big shakeup. "I dont like this guy and there is
| no political process to remove him so I brought in my private
| army, the President fleed and he resigned in 10 hours"
| idopmstuff wrote:
| Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus:
| https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-leader-prigozhin-
| exil...
|
| Seems like a terrible outcome for Putin. He looks really weak
| and presumably just lost most if not all of Wagner, who were
| his most effective troops. He might have Prigozhin poisoned,
| but that would probably cause further instability internally
| as it causes more of his leadership to realize he'll clearly
| betray anybody and his word isn't worth anything.
| TeMPOraL wrote:
| > _and presumably just lost most if not all of Wagner_
|
| That remains to be seen? Might be that some of their
| warriors will take the offer to join the military, and
| others... might select (or be given) new leadership, and go
| back to Ukraine to resume their regular business there.
|
| If this really was Prigozhin vs. MoD, then that particular
| issue might be a closed case. Mercenaries are what they are
| - they're loyal to themselves and money, not state policy.
| Prigozhin got them to march at Moscow, so they did; then
| got them to march back, safe and sound, so they did.
| Russian government can just say "okay, no shots fired, no
| hard feelings" and leave it at that; it's not like they
| trusted them in the first place.
|
| Putin angle though, that's a new thing. One way of spinning
| today's events is that Prigozhin took a swing at the Tsar,
| missed, and still lived to talk about it. Leaving it at
| that is not safe for the Tsar.
| tuukkah wrote:
| I'm worried the deal may lead to Wagner taking control in
| Belarus.
| resolutebat wrote:
| Lukashenka is a wily operator and has ruled Belarus with
| an iron fist for 20 years. The offer is exile for
| Prigozhin personally, not an open invitation for
| everybody in Wagner to come to Belarus.
| tuukkah wrote:
| Really weird he would part with his troops.
| koonsolo wrote:
| The things you describe were already known before, so I assume
| there needs to be something else.
|
| Maybe he thought more parts of the army would back him?
| chasd00 wrote:
| Yeah he got no support, everyone sided with Putin. I think he
| knows the end is near. He'll hide in Belarus for as long as
| he can but I bet he knows he crossed the line.
| labster wrote:
| It depends on if Lukashenko can use Wagner rather than the
| Russian army to shore up his own regime. I would not be
| surprised to hear Prigozhin had accidentally fallen out a
| window of a tall building, and only slightly surprised to
| hear he is Belarus' next defense minister.
| nemo44x wrote:
| Yeah it seems like he smartly sold at the top here. He wasn't
| going to have any more advantageous of a position and he cashed
| it in at the perfect time.
| usrusr wrote:
| A demonstration of strength by that oddball player who was
| never really respected by his peers because he didn't go to the
| right school but who somehow got along very well with the big
| boss.Except on those days they fall out. His co-underlings were
| envious of that, likely plotted a little, therefore the
| outsider had to posture to reassert his position. Posture he
| did, now the big boss says I forgive you if you come back at my
| side. To the "from the right school" underlings this is a clear
| message that they have to accept the outsider. Prigoshin won,
| not what he claimed to strive for (though he would have taken
| that in a pinch I guess) but what he actually wanted.
| crtified wrote:
| Prigozhin apparently has a wife and children in Russia. Who,
| according to standard web sources, are deeply entrenched in
| Russian society and big business.
|
| There need not be complex political chess boards behind this
| move. Putin could simply have told his former friend that his
| choices were (1) leave, or (2) bye-bye family.
| psychphysic wrote:
| I once heard that during the Cold War nobody could work out what
| was reason going on in the USSR because it seemed like a constant
| back stabbing brawl.
|
| I'm starting to see what they meant.
|
| Absolutely everyone looks ridiculous, Putin somehow manages to
| survive another day and the roulette wheel begins to spin again.
| dkjaudyeqooe wrote:
| Putin might actually be in trouble. Obviously Wagner can't
| defeat the whole of the russian army, but he's got a large
| number of battle hardened troops who could stage an effective
| assault against Putin, overwhelming his person security.
|
| The other factor is Prigozhin is popular with the rank and file
| in the russian army, and so has a chance to effectively control
| the army if he decapitated the leadership. Putin's underlings
| would probably fall in behind him if they believed he did.
|
| Putin, for all his personal power, is only one guy, he depends
| on the loyalty of the people around him, and this being russia,
| I imagine they're very much looking out for themselves, rather
| than some higher calling, so they can be convinced of what's
| good for them in the current situation.
| arp242 wrote:
| At the end of the day all you need is one person and one
| bullet, right? See: JFK, Indira Gandhi, John Lennon, many
| more. 50,000 people all with a lot of bullets seems like a
| bit of a problem no matter what. Gandhi in particular is
| interesting, as she was murdered by two of her Sikh
| bodyguards angry over how she dealt with the Sikh
| independence movement at the time. Who knows who will get
| "inspired" from this action, and what they will do.
| creamynebula wrote:
| "and this being russia...", is there a place where most
| people are not, for the most part, looking out for
| themselves? You seem to be implying that Russia is special in
| that regard.
| dkjaudyeqooe wrote:
| It is. I think in most Western capitals most people in
| government are driven by ideology, patriotism, public
| service or simply professionalism and people are not in
| fear of their lives. I think in Putin's russia self-
| preservation/survival is top of mind. It's a brutal culture
| and it would only be more so at the highest levels. You
| only have to look to the high number of defenestrations of
| high level individuals that have happened in recent years.
| softwaredoug wrote:
| Exactly, it appears like Putin blinked to another warlord.
| Now Russia looks less like a dictatorship and an unstable
| group of warlords.
| JumpinJack_Cash wrote:
| At this point this guy will be arrested I think, how many lives
| were lost and billions of rubles of equipement destroyed due to
| this?
|
| No blood shed is a lie too if reports of downed choppers and
| planes are to be believed.
|
| He didn't have the guts or the support to go through, and even
| announcing of trying to reach Moscow was stupid.
|
| Amongst all this, where the heck is the Russian Air Force? They
| were planning to reach Moscow via usual roads, would have been
| very easy for a couple of MIGs to smoke them like the US Air
| Force did in 1991 in Iraq's Highway to Hell.
|
| This whole war in Ukraine is very bizarre, no Navy, no Air Force,
| just ground war and drones, it's like the really expensive pieces
| of equipment are too costly to be risked for Ukraine.
| spacebanana7 wrote:
| > would have been very easy for a couple of MIGs to smoke them
| like the US Air Force did in 1991 in Iraq's Highway to Hell.
|
| There were videos on Twitter of the Wagner columns using pretty
| serious short & medium range air defences.
|
| It's hard to infer exactly how much air defence Wagner has, but
| even a couple of Pantsirs would make air strikes very dangerous
| for non stealth aircraft.
| badpun wrote:
| > This whole war in Ukraine is very bizarre, no Navy, no Air
| Force, just ground war and drones, it's like the really
| expensive pieces of equipment are too costly to be risked for
| Ukraine.
|
| Russia's air force is supposedly a major problem for the
| Ukrainians during the current offensive, that's why Zelensky is
| so adamant about getting fighter jets ASAP.
| pixl97 wrote:
| But even in this case Russia rarely directly engages ukraine
| with aircraft. The S300 is risky to go up against directly.
| They just don't have the ECM and number of aircraft needed to
| take out significant numbers of Ukrainian anti aircraft
| sites.
| meepmorp wrote:
| Russia, and Putin specifically, has to do something about this.
| Prigozhin can't be allowed to go free after this - he directly
| challenged state authority in really unambiguous terms. He took
| control of Rostov, he was openly marching towards Moscow.
|
| "Where is the Russian Air Force," is a common question in the
| Ukrainian conflict. They've mostly been lobbing standoff
| weapons from inside Russia to avoid losses to AA, as they lack
| the SEAD capability to operate safely closer. Given the
| supposed shoot downs of helicopters, I can see not wanting to
| risk getting closer. Plus all they're probably down to dumb
| bombs, making it quite hard to hit much accurately at a
| distance.
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| In short, due to inadequate military planning, completely
| failed intelligence and some smart moves by Ukrainian military,
| Russia failed to destroy Ukrainian Air Defence in the first
| hours of war and this failure predetermined the rest. With air
| superiority Russia could reach their goals in the first months
| of war even despite the resistance. They could not operate
| freely in Ukrainian air and now with Patriot and IRIS systems
| deployed it is completely impossible.
|
| What has happened today is hard to explain. Probably lack of
| command and coordination between FSB and military.
| vbezhenar wrote:
| My opinion is that he expected to come into Kremlin while Putin
| and other officials are fled. With support of some army parts and
| probably some oligarchs (won't believe he did it on his own). In
| this case he would have declared himself as new president.
| Something went wrong and he realized that this plan's not going
| to work.
| pearjuice wrote:
| Information & propaganda wars are so asymmetrical I sometimes
| wish there was less reporting until it was actually clear what is
| going on. It's all just one fog of uncertainty and whoever thinks
| what is being reported now is correct is probably mistaken.
| Somehow this buildup of troops was completely unreported, even
| though any intelligence agency worth its salt should have seen
| concentration and movement of troops for days if not weeks.
| Completely unreported in the media AFAIK, and all of a sudden all
| media is reporting Wagner is going full steam ahead towards
| Moscow.
| j16sdiz wrote:
| There were russian and chinese blogs reporting this for days,
| but nobody took them seriously.
|
| I guess it's too hard to tell signals from noises.
| pixl97 wrote:
| Eh around the time of the Wagner pullout from Bakmut there has
| been signs that there was a large amount of discontent between
| the mercenaries and the MOD. They had been throwing threats at
| each other along with rumors of shooting at each other at
| times.
|
| Oddly enough on some more of the hypothetical and
| conspiratorial parts of the net possibilities like this have
| been discussed for weeks. It's just so odd to see this happen
| in real life.
| notorandit wrote:
| Prigozhin is dead. If not now, it will quite soon. He stood
| against hir employer. He will be fired anyway. The hard way.
| dkjaudyeqooe wrote:
| When you have your own private army your longevity tends to
| improve somewhat.
| synetic wrote:
| No public statements by officials of any government or
| organization can be believed. They may or may not be telling the
| truth. The story will be spun in accordance to whims/wishes of
| whoever is spinning it. It could be a coup attempt by Wagner or
| maybe the longtime Putin loyalist is doing this for Putin to see
| who in the military end up demonstrating a lack of loyalty to
| Putin. There are lots of possibilities but whatever the truth is
| it is a fascinating story.
|
| Churchill's quote seems apt. Russia is a riddle, wrapped in a
| mystery inside an enigma.
| Someone wrote:
| So, assuming this is true, and there isn't still a, possibly
| secret and/or smaller, force secretly heading for Moscow, how
| would this pan out for Wagner and its leader?
|
| To me this looked like an "all in", but apparently, they think it
| wasn't. What could have convinced him and his troops that any
| promises made would be held?
|
| Are there historical precedents for this kind of action where the
| revolter stopped their advance, and lived happily ever after?
| brazzy wrote:
| >To me this looked like an "all in", but apparently, they think
| it wasn't. What could have convinced him and his troops that
| any promises made would be held?
|
| My guess is that he was counting on support from within the
| Russian power structure that was promised but then didn't
| materialize, and now he knows that following through would be
| suicide, and giving up at least offers a non-zero chance of
| survival.
|
| Another possible explanation: it was a setup, planned by Putin
| from beginning to end in order to improve his strongman image
| and eliminate Wagner as a threat. Prigozhin was given the offer
| to play along and end up powerless but rich - and alive. That
| offer could be credible because if Prigozhin gives up control
| of Wagner, he helped Putin and is not a threat to him anymore.
| pastacacioepepe wrote:
| The Putin's setup theory is the most convincing I've heard so
| far.
|
| One thing that doesn't make sense to me is that Prigozhin
| used an alleged Russian missile attack on a wagner base as
| justification to start this charade. If the Russian
| government really wanted to neutralize Wagner, one can only
| think they would have taken more effective and quick measures
| to do so, rather than a half-hassed missile attack. There's
| no logic behind it, some piece of the puzzle is missing.
| justsomehnguy wrote:
| > used an alleged Russian missile attack on a wagner base
|
| You can't assemble those forces in a moments notice.
|
| You can't expect no resistance on the way to the capital.
| pastacacioepepe wrote:
| True, adds to the idea that the missile attack was a
| ruse. Everything was prepared in advance.
| troupo wrote:
| > it was a setup, planned by Putin from beginning to end in
| order to improve his strongman image and eliminate Wagner as
| a threat.
|
| So Prigozhin:
|
| - marched unopposed until he was 200 km from Moscow
|
| - military scrambled to build defenses around Moscow
|
| - Prigozhin's forces downed at least two military aircraft
|
| - Prigozhin's forces had an unopposed military presence in
| Rostov, population 1.1 mln people
|
| In the end:
|
| - deal was supposrdly negotiated by a widely disrespected
| Lukashenko, not by Putin.
|
| - all charges dropped
|
| How's that strongman image coming along?
| squarefoot wrote:
| > - deal was supposrdly negotiated by a widely disrespected
| Lukashenko, not by Putin.
|
| Lukashenko is Putin's puppet; Putin couldn't negotiate in
| first person without appearing as weak. It's possible that
| both Prigozhin and Putin tested their own strength and
| concluded that they both can be hurt badly. I believe that
| we'll know more by looking at what will happen to Shoigu
| and Gerasimov in the next days.
| TheOtherHobbes wrote:
| I've been following this on Twitter, and so far as I can tell
| it's a bar fight between a couple of crazy old guys who both
| happen to have an army.
|
| Prigozhin's rationale for this episode seems to be intense
| annoyance that he wasn't getting respect.
|
| And now - as he believes - he's got that after a show of
| strength, everyone can go home and pretend it never happened.
|
| It's insanity. Just bonkers. All of it.
|
| Some Ukrainians I know tell me there's local suspicion that was a
| feint or a ruse to see where Ukraine would attack. It's an
| interesting idea, but that seems a lot of effort and drama for a
| very small reward.
| tguvot wrote:
| >Prigozhin's rationale for this episode seems to be intense
| annoyance that he wasn't getting respect.
|
| i think his intense annoyance might be result of some
| assassination attempt. he claimed yesterday that wagner bases
| were bombed. on one of the yesterdays videos he has rather deep
| and long fresh looking cut on his face
| pixl97 wrote:
| Of course Wagner going to belaruse isn't any better, that is
| still next door and presents the ability for them to attack
| from the north in the future.
| ineedasername wrote:
| It's only Prigozhin going to Belaruse, not Wagner. He's
| effectively lost his army and is now in exile. Though I'm
| guessing he'd only agree to the deal if he was able to bring
| along an escort of some amount of Wagner troops loyal to him
| and/or some other reliable guarantee of his safety.
| bombcar wrote:
| We like to think that international politics is a group of
| intelligent and suave individuals working things out, but it is
| much more predictive and instructive to consider it as toddlers
| brawling in a preschool whilst their parents are brawling at
| the local tavern.
| jen729w wrote:
| We like to think that 'the government' is in any way any
| combination of sane, shrewd, or smart. As if it's this entity
| that has its own mind.
|
| I've worked with various Australian federal government
| agencies for ten years now. Three years ago we moved to the
| capital, Canberra.
|
| It turns out 'the government' is just a bunch of people who
| happen to live in this one city. They're as average as the
| rest of us. They were born here because their parents live
| here and these are the jobs here so that's what they do.
|
| In fact few outsiders come here because the city is famously
| boring. [0]
|
| The mystery is why we would think that this group of people
| were any different from the rest of us.
|
| [0]: Actually it's a charming little town. Don't tell
| anybody.
| throwaway5371 wrote:
| pretty much with most groups, from the cdc to ftc to fifa
| :)
| okaram wrote:
| And most big companies too ... Faang / banks / whatever
| pydry wrote:
| >Some Ukrainians I know tell me there's local suspicion that
| was a feint or a ruse to see where Ukraine would attack.
|
| I'm credulous of this. It's a lot of effort and drama but the
| stakes are extremely high too. If it lured Ukraine into a death
| trap it would pay for itself.
|
| The fact that very little fighting occurred and nobody even
| went to prison is suspicious.
|
| The fact that Prigozhin demonstrated extreme personal loyalty
| to Putin in the past and vice versa on a level few others have
| matched is also suggestive. Who else would you ask to run a
| fake coup?
| [deleted]
| DueDilligence wrote:
| [dead]
| medo-bear wrote:
| i wouldnt be too surprised if this was all a show for the West.
| with Putin gone just immagine who else could have the finger on
| the nuclear trigger
| whyenot wrote:
| This level of instability in the country that is estimated to
| have more nuclear weapons than any other in the world is really
| frightening.
| uejfiweun wrote:
| The story of this century seems increasingly obvious to me.
| Either we invent superintelligent AI that saves us, or
| increasing incompetence, decay, and "tragedy of the commons"
| type problems cause us to eventually blow ourselves up.
| 082349872349872 wrote:
| One hopes that russian Permissive Action Links are not coded to
| << vse nuli >> (all balls).
| SauciestGNU wrote:
| Is that an "all null" pun or does it just look like one?
| MrFoof wrote:
| I can only imagine what it's going to be like in a few
| countries' intelligence departments as well. Several countries
| with well-regarded intelligence operations have functionally
| signaled, "Well, we didn't expect _this_!"
|
| The rest of the planet really didn't see this coming on Friday.
| It was borderline late 1990s military-espionage-themed
| Hollywood action movie stuff.
|
| There's likely a couple of intelligence orgs that aren't happy
| they ended up flat-footed, and didn't see this coming when it
| did.
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| Many people didn't expect 24.02 to happen, thinking that it
| was too obvious that the attack will fail. Yet it happened,
| because Putin felt cornered and modern Russian masculine
| culture does not allow to step back. Same with Prigozhin: we
| could not see it happening, because we did not know how he
| felt when he decided to start planning the raid. Rationality
| of the strong leaders is often exaggerated: their chain of
| reasoning may be generally perfect, but the original
| assumptions can be purely emotional. Predicting them is an
| difficult task for intelligence services and getting inside
| data from Wagner to crack it would not be easy.
| option wrote:
| As someone who has family in northern Ukraine I am now very
| worried about the possibility of another, Wagner-led offensive
| from Belarus to Kyiv (the only viable route to Kyiv).
|
| Lukashenko is not an independent agent, he is Putin's slave. Zero
| chances Prigozin just retires in Belaruss.
| ceejayoz wrote:
| The last one came through Belarus, didn't it? With Russia
| basically as prepared as they'd get, and with a pretty decent
| element of suprise against a fairly unprepared opponent?
|
| I don't think anyone's getting near Kyiv again in this war.
| option wrote:
| those initial units were incompetent. Wagner demonstrated
| themselves as the most competent russist units
| jncfhnb wrote:
| Not really. Wagner units haven't actually performed that
| well. Better than the clown car assault on Kyiv, but no
| remarkable successes. The bravado around Bakhmut is not
| compelling. At the end of the day they have the same shitty
| equipment and that's hard to overcome. Human wave tactics
| and leveling cities with artillery can work for urban
| warfare. It wouldn't work for actual defensive lines.
| ceejayoz wrote:
| > Wagner demonstrated themselves as the most competent
| russist units
|
| That seems to be a low bar; they spent nine months taking a
| town of 70k in a separatist province. Kyiv is a...
| different target, and I fully expect the Belarussian border
| is well fortified now.
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| > they spent nine months taking a town of 70k in a
| separatist province
|
| I do not think this can be a measure of anything. Just a
| reminder: Verdun was smaller in 1914-1916.
| bitcurious wrote:
| Random thoughts:
|
| Prigozhin agreed to a fake stand-down; his troops have been in
| action for 18 hours, this allows them to regroup and rest for a
| night and commence again in the morning, with some drummed up
| excuse.
|
| Prigozhin didn't get the support he expected from the military,
| so he was was motivated to settle, but had enough support to
| threaten Moscow, so Putin was motivated to settle. Outcomes - a
| hardliner in charge of the Russian military, Putin quietly
| retires in a year or two, hands over reigns without the violence.
|
| Prigozhin was threatened with a tactical nuke, decided it wasn't
| worth it.
|
| One of Prigozhin's desired outcomes - a change of the guard in
| Russia's MoD was inevitable given the incompetence shown in the
| defense of this mutiny. Even if things got truly violent and
| Wagner was destroyed by force, Shoigu and Gerasimov were out.
|
| Prigozhin's communications are a mix of brutal honesty and subtle
| manipulation. His allies are a mix of the competent and the
| fanatical. Overall, the whole thing is bizarre. I'm not convinced
| it's over.
| barbariangrunge wrote:
| Prigozhin's going to get poisoned / assassinated within 3
| months. Maybe within 2 weeks. He's crazy if he think's he'll
| survive to see 2024 without a successful rebellion. He's a dead
| man walking, and I don't understand what could possibly be in
| the deal that could convince him otherwise
| LinuxBender wrote:
| _Prigozhin 's going to get poisoned / assassinated within 3
| months._
|
| I think that depends on how we got here. One theory _could_
| be that another country or set of countries paid him to turn
| against Russia and promised he could live wherever he wants
| with a nice stash of cash should he accomplish some specific
| tasks. The reason I think this could be the case is that
| mercs are generally only faithful to money and anything that
| gives them more power. I 'm sure he realized he did not have
| a future of money or power in Russia so it might not have
| taken that much to turn him.
| akrymski wrote:
| Exactly. This looks like classic extortion: if you don't
| pay me more, I will stop fighting, or do a 180.
| lisasays wrote:
| _Prigozhin was threatened with a tactical nuke, decided it wasn
| 't worth it._
|
| Woah there. This just doesn't parse.
| anigbrowl wrote:
| Yeah, I rather doubt he is using a public Telegram channel to
| coordinate his troops.
| culebron21 wrote:
| There's another versin of what happened. Here's a post in
| telegram theorizing and referring to anonymous sources in the
| governmnet, suggesting it's a big fight between president
| administration management and FSB against MoD Shoigu+Gerasimov
| and Rostech corporation over the assets and state contracts of
| the latter. (post: https://t.me/volyamedia/703)
|
| Apart from that it's entirely built on anonymous sources, this
| gives some plausible explanation, because if we consider just 2
| sides (Prigozhin/Wagner vs Government), a genuine stand-down
| seems impossible. Leaving Prigozhin go away undermines the
| authority of Putin among those in top power.
|
| But with 3 or 4 sides (Wagner, MoD & Rostech, PA & FSB, Putin &
| closest people) this explains their moves much better.
|
| Although, if PA & FSB really did this, it's very reckless,
| putting the entire campaign at risk -- like quick frontline
| collapse.
|
| So I admit the case with inner fight possible, though prorably
| the fake stand-down is more probable.
| LaundroMat wrote:
| Reading this felt like reading the beginning of a cyberpunk
| novel.
|
| (I do not mean to dismiss your post, only the strangeness of
| the situation).
| 082349872349872 wrote:
| The narrator of _Burning Chrome_ lost his arm in a war,
| hang gliding at night over Kiev (as it was then). A dolphin
| in _Johnny Mnemonic_ was trained for navy service.
|
| The cyberpunks were a bit ahead of reality in these
| situations...
| AnimalMuppet wrote:
| I like your first thought. That seems realistically possible.
|
| I'm not sure your second is realistic. I don't think there's
| any scenario where at least one of Putin and Prigozhin don't
| die. If Prigozhin "settles", he will be shortly assassinated.
| (Watch out for windows!) Putin _might_ be able to quietly
| retire, but I think the odds are against that one, too.
| hutzlibu wrote:
| "Prigozhin didn't get the support he expected from the
| military, so he was was motivated to settle, but had enough
| support to threaten Moscow, so Putin was motivated to settle.
| Outcomes - a hardliner in charge of the Russian military, Putin
| quietly retires in a year or two, hands over reigns without the
| violence"
|
| Mostly agree, except to the conclusion. I do not think Putin is
| ready to hand over the power and he rather rules till he dies
| (one way or the other).
|
| And of course it is far from over, because whoever wins, it
| ain't people who have much respect for human rights or lifes.
|
| But I cannot imagine both being alive in russia.
| meepmorp wrote:
| > Prigozhin was threatened with a tactical nuke, decided it
| wasn't worth it.
|
| I have trouble believing there was a credible threat of nukes.
| Nuking your own territory is an unambiguous way to signal
| you've completely lost control of everything.
| runarberg wrote:
| Wasn't that one of the extra headlines in _Robocop_?
| Something about South Africa--still under the apartheid
| regime at time of premier--were "forced" to nuke one of their
| own cities because of unrest.
| jasfi wrote:
| Seems so: https://robocop.fandom.com/wiki/Pretoria
|
| Only in the movies though. No country would risk a tactical
| nuke in their own territory, that's self-defeating.
| boomboomsubban wrote:
| >No country would risk a tactical nuke in their own
| territory, that's self-defeating.
|
| No one had done that, but that's the general theory as to
| why South Africa developed nukes.
| meepmorp wrote:
| Possibly, but per a 1993 NY Times article on the program:
|
| > Mr. de Klerk told Parliament that the program, one of
| the nuclear era's most closely guarded secrets, was begun
| in 1974 because of the apartheid Government's sense of
| isolation and its fear of Communist designs in the
| region.
|
| Of course, that doesn't preclude internal use.
| lawn wrote:
| Blowing up the Kakhovka Dam is classified as an offense
| similar to blowing up a nuclear power plant.
|
| It should be a pretty clear signal that they've lost control,
| as the damage the dam causes is larger than that of a small
| tactical nuke.
| sharikous wrote:
| There is a lot of plausible deniability on the destruction
| of the dam. In the case of a nuke in your own territory
| that's more unequivocal
| lawn wrote:
| Not really.
|
| It's pretty damn clear who blew up the dam, yet lots of
| people still claim that Russia didn't do it.
|
| Wouldn't be hard to make the same people believe someone
| else nuked Russian territory.
| coldtea wrote:
| Wasn't it "clear" who blew the pipelines too?
| rossdavidh wrote:
| Blowing up dams is a pretty standard thing whatever side is
| on defense to do. Ukraine did it earlier in this war,
| Russia did it (much smaller dam) after Kakhovka, the
| Netherlands has done it, Belgium has done it. Blowing up
| nuclear power plants is way less common.
| gumby wrote:
| Whatever you want to call it, coup, rebellion, whatever, it seems
| clear that this event will provide a _Dolchstoss_ explanation for
| the loss of the Ukraine war that will be used to keep revanchist
| militarism alive.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth
| thriftwy wrote:
| There is an enormous pule of Dolchstoss explanations already
| collected to be used on as per needed basis. The events of
| today are adding to it but far from dwarfing it.
| meghan_rain wrote:
| what else is there? nato weapon delivery?
| AnimalMuppet wrote:
| No, that would be stab in the front.
|
| I presume they mean stuff like not enough ammunition, no
| air support, and so on.
| surfsvammel wrote:
| Interesting. Something no one (at least in Swedish media) is
| talking about. But how would that in anyway help Putin?
| dboreham wrote:
| War would have been won if not for stab in the back. Same as
| Germany post-ww1 rise of Nazis.
| AnimalMuppet wrote:
| That won't help Putin, though (probably). He's probably
| fatally weakened by all this, as the Kaiser didn't remain
| in power past the end of WWI. What it will do is provide
| nationalistic fodder for the next nationalistic firebrand
| in 20 years.
| playingalong wrote:
| It wouldn't help Putin to win. It only helps to keep his face
| and spirit up in case he loses.
| 082349872349872 wrote:
| There is a TASS article from yesterday where the FSB, in
| english translation, literally said "stab in the back".
| Unfortunately swapping languages from an article doesn't get
| the original, so I have no idea what the idiom may be in
| russian.
| culebron21 wrote:
| As a native Russian speaker, can assue you it is exacly the
| same thing.
| 082349872349872 wrote:
| TIL << nozh v spinu >> thanks! eg
| https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-66007068
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| This sequence of events left a strange aftertaste: first striking
| observation was that there was no enough information about what's
| going on and there is still not enough. Everything could be
| narrowed down to a few sources in Telegram giving very brief
| updates. The reporting by traditional media had a lot of ,,not
| independently confirmed" details. This was very strange, given
| that everything was happening in a densely populated area -
| Rostov, Voronezh, Lipetsk and Tula are big cities, M4 is an
| important highway with a lot of traffic. I would expect minute-
| by-minute coverage with a lot of pictures, maps, estimates of how
| much time they need to reach Moscow etc.
|
| Second observation was that the regime did not exist in the
| moment: with few notable exceptions, we have not even seen faces
| of anyone from national security council. Some local actions of
| the governors, fortification of Moscow, pathetic speech of Putin
| in the morning and that's it. The weakness of it in the face of a
| violent force was exposed.
|
| Third observation was unexpectedly high visible support of Wagner
| by people. Many laughing at situation or agreeing with
| Prigozhin's demands, some bringing food and water to mercenaries
| in Rostov. All despite that PMC Wagner is a criminal organization
| famous for extra-judicial executions, war crimes etc. An
| organization led by an open nazi (Utkin) and assembled from
| prisoners, many of which were convicted for violent crimes. It is
| crazy how people can even think of collaborating with them.
|
| And the outcome, a deal that says Putin is no longer in control
| without saying it. Could it be some conspiracy to purge elites
| while keeping the supreme leader in power? It does not look so.
| It looks like he for the first time in history was forced to eat
| the pill. Yet he is still a president and business is as usual.
| It is a very dangerous moment if we remember that Russia still
| has nuclear weapons and it is big enough that even without using
| them by falling apart it can destabilize the entire world.
| civilitty wrote:
| _> The reporting by traditional media had a lot of ,,not
| independently confirmed" details. This was very strange, given
| that everything was happening in a densely populated area -
| Rostov, Voronezh, Lipetsk and Tula are big cities, M4 is an
| important highway with a lot of traffic._
|
| Think about how many videos exist of generic Russian troops and
| tanks moving on the M4 and around the Ministry of Defense
| building in Rostov just on Twitter alone. Most of the time the
| only way to differentiate Wagner from regular troops is a
| little patch on their arms.
|
| It's very hard to verify the date a video was taken, even when
| there's several of them online. Deception is _always_ a concern
| and it takes time to gather enough experts to cross verify
| facts and find trustworthy sources on the ground.
|
| This whole incident was actually quite accessible this time
| around - a lot less fog of war than usual. Google Maps showed
| blockages on the M4 and Prigozhin sent out audio messages via
| official channels.
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| Well, that's the thing: there's not that many evidence from
| specific points. Imagine having relatives in Efremov or
| Novocherkassk, knowing that sometimes there's fighting
| between Wagner and army or FSB, and not being able to tell if
| there's any risk for your family. Tracking such a big force
| on your own turf should have been an easy task for MVD or
| FSB. Maybe even for some big newspapers. Visual ID, plates
| etc. At least some Wagner vehicles were easily recognizable.
| FlyingBears wrote:
| Prisoners provided a decent chunk of recruitment for Ukrainian
| forces at the beginning of the war as well. Regardless of
| country, prison population represents a group, already familiar
| with weapons, violence, and audacity to use them, which can be
| reliably sourced for fighting or advancing other interests that
| require extreme measures. Even if Wagner is dissolved, its
| remnants will control the criminal underworld of Russia and
| will be a punitive instrument for any dissent.
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| Ukrainian prisoners were incorporated in Ukrainian armed
| forces, right? Different culture than in PMC, which kills
| traitors with a hammer.
| [deleted]
| [deleted]
| hkpack wrote:
| > It is crazy how people can even think of collaborating with
| them.
|
| It is not crazy, if you take into account that the genocidal
| war is very popular among Russians, and the only complain they
| have is that it is not going according to their expectations.
| They blame the top military officials for that and think that
| wagner will be more efficient in killing Ukrainians.
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| Well, the thing is people who supported this raid are not
| exactly the same as those who support the war. I would
| understand if they were the same.
| hurflmurfl wrote:
| Another option (which I'm partial to) is something like "the
| enemy of my enemy is my friend".
|
| Not everyone is on top of who's part of the mercenary company
| and some people could just see this as "a change", so they
| would offer some support.
|
| Not making a statement of "how things really are" here, just
| saying that sometimes an explanation might be "jeez, finally
| there's some change, maybe something will happen out of this"
| and not "let me go support these genocidal mercenaries".
| jjtheblunt wrote:
| What published (linkable) basis have you used for these
| claims?
| Redoubts wrote:
| > The reporting by traditional media had a lot of ,,not
| independently confirmed" details.
|
| Because (US) foreign correspondence is a hollow shell of
| itself.
|
| https://twitter.com/ChrisBuryNews/status/1672410476364300288...
|
| > At @abc we had foreign bureaus in Beijing, Beirut, Berlin,
| Cairo, Frankfort, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, London, Moscow,
| Paris, Rome, Tel Aviv and Tokyo.
|
| > Only London is left.
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| No, not because of this. I'm not from the Default Country and
| work with Russian sources directly. It would not be unusual
| to see this in any Western media (e.g.German or British)
| reporting on a subject in a foreign country. It was unusual
| to see it in local news.
| baybal2 wrote:
| [dead]
| maratc wrote:
| I think this is a circus, where Putin and Prigozhin are
| completely aligned, and the point of that show is to make one
| point: if the West doesn't like Putin, there are options that are
| much worse.
| coolspot wrote:
| *chef
| culebron21 wrote:
| This seems absurd to turn around after commiting this -- an armed
| rebellion.
|
| I've just read a Russian telegram channel post
| (https://t.me/volyamedia/703) theorizing and referring to
| anonymous sources in higher ranks, that this was a push from the
| president administration and FSB against MoD, with Prigozhin
| being just the public side. This is of course based on anonymous
| sources and must be taken with caution, but it is a good
| explanation of what could have happened.
|
| If we assume just 2 sides, Kremlin+MoD vs Wagner, this agreement
| looks impossible or a fake move.
|
| From Kremlin position, leaving Prigozhin go away peacefully means
| this kind of uprisings with big demands are going to repeat. From
| Prigozhin's position, this means to step back after becoming an
| existential threat and try to co-live peacefully. Very
| implausible.
|
| So I had only 2 explanations: 1) he lied and was preparing more
| offensive, or 2) he actually got some undeclineable offer: get
| some money, go abroad, or to say Afrika with another mission. But
| still, for Kremlin, (2) looks a very short-sighted decision and
| undermining of own position.
|
| Thus, the version of an internal fight seems plausible. If we
| assume that the PA & FSB were ready to let the state lose this
| much reputation, or put their frontlines at risk of collapse
| during the counteroffensive, then things seem to agree with each
| other. (And collapsing front lines are a liability of MoD, not
| FSB anyway.)
| lamontcg wrote:
| 3. Prigozhin lashed out and got in over his head, realized he
| committed to a suicide mission with no political support and is
| trying to back out of it any way that he can.
|
| > From Kremlin position, leaving Prigozhin go away peacefully
| means this kind of uprisings with big demands are going to
| repeat. From Prigozhin's position, this means to step back
| after becoming an existential threat and try to co-live
| peacefully. Very implausible.
|
| Yes, he's probably a dead man walking, that doesn't mean that
| the Kremlin can't agree to allow him to walk away peacefully
| while they come up with a way to assassinate him. The Kremlin
| will better understand that trope about diplomacy being the art
| of saying "nice doggy" until you can find a rock.
| culebron21 wrote:
| Well, this is plausible too, because 1) I've not seen signs
| of him being a suicidal fanatic, and 2) there were witnesses
| that he didn't amass enough support from the military.
| MichaelMoser123 wrote:
| Erratic behavior, a sign of drug abuse. Prigozhin must be under
| the influence of drugs.
|
| Another possible explanation: he got the backing of some faction
| inside the Kremlin, but they did not really back him when push
| came to shove.
| csilverman wrote:
| I don't know about drugs. Ego, messiah complex, and delusions
| of invincibility? Sure.
|
| Putin got where he was through reality-TV-level ostentatious
| displays of strength. Prigozhin likely figured he was the only
| one who could boast measurable gains in the war, and the same
| tactics would work for him.
|
| My guess is his miscalculation was assuming he was more popular
| among the rank-and-file Russian military and police than he is,
| and it's too early to tell if that's actually a miscalculation.
| tycho-newman wrote:
| If you can get within 120 kilometers of the Kremlin while
| tripping balls, then the problem is not the drugs.
| MichaelMoser123 wrote:
| He was not acting alone. His private army is a bit similar to
| the blackwater group, both armies got somewhere around
| 20000-30000 soldiers.
| j16sdiz wrote:
| 1. this is an emerging situation, and he probably knew more
| than we do.
|
| 2. His aims/agenda probably doesn't match ours.
| [deleted]
| [deleted]
| woodpanel wrote:
| [flagged]
| RomanPushkin wrote:
| With so much nukes Russia has, I am wondering if the US' export
| of instability to the border of a country that has more nukes
| that the US really worth it. I also understand that lots of folks
| see it as "export of democracy" and gonna hate the comment. But
| what you gonna say on the first nuke use? Second, third?
| veer wrote:
| https://archive.ph/kCw2E
| [deleted]
| pmarreck wrote:
| Good luck with that. He's already basically lost the contrived
| war with Ukraine.
| dang wrote:
| After thinking it over, I'm persuaded by the users who argued
| that this story is intellectually and historically interesting
| and therefore deserves a thread on HN - as long as it can stay
| out of flamewar. If you're going to comment, please make sure
| you're posting in the intended spirit of intellectual curiosity,
| and please avoid the shallow, tropey, flamebaity style.
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
|
| Edit: I know that (as of this moment) the story may have passed
| its sensational peak - if so, that's a good thing on HN. We're
| trying for reflective, not reflexive, conversation here:
| https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor....
| tlogan wrote:
| Something unusual is happening indeed. Based on my experience
| living under a comparable regime, I infer the situation to be as
| follows:
|
| - Prigozhin is entirely aligned with Putin.
|
| - However, there's some ambiguity regarding the army's leadership
| complete allegiance to Putin.
|
| Thus, the crux of the matter appears to be the strategy to
| displace specific factions within the army and replace them with
| supporters of Putin.
| hutzlibu wrote:
| I think that is really unlikely, because Prigoshin stated that
| the war was a misstake and that Ukraine was never a threat to
| russia.
|
| That is 100% against every major decision of Putin and a direct
| attack to his authority, even though he softened it up by
| stating he was wrongly informed by the military.
| tlogan wrote:
| By he said this: " Ministry of Defence deceived the public;
| deceived the president"
|
| In other words, he is saying that poor Putin was deceived but
| these evil people from Ministry of Defence.
| justsomehnguy wrote:
| "Evil boyars". Not the first time, not the last.
| hutzlibu wrote:
| That still makes Putin weak, when he, who was raised by the
| KGB, is not able to get acurate information. (He does have
| internet btw. and he speaks more than russian.)
| NicoJuicy wrote:
| The Tsar can't do anything wrong.
|
| It's always his trustees that fail the tsar.
| quazar wrote:
| They already made peace:
| https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/RWApodcast/status/16726544795...
| gnfargbl wrote:
| Wagner keeps the media focus on Ukraine, but their real business
| is in Africa [1].
|
| My cynical suspicion is that this whole affair was really about
| Prigozhin finding a way to keep the buckets of money that he has
| been making from smuggling African gold; by moving to Belarus he
| keeps the majority of the spoils, with Lukashenko probably taking
| a cut.
|
| [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-wagner-group-ukraine-
| war...
| throwaway290 wrote:
| This is actually likely. The rocket strike got debunked as
| fake; the rest of his claims are phrased to look "just" for the
| public while being transparent to those who control the money
| flow. Very prosaic money-centric infighting it might be after
| all.
|
| I have seen a similar analysis by Ukrainian intelligence and it
| seems what fits bizarre events
| layer8 wrote:
| Title should be changed to "Russian Paramilitary Chief Says His
| Forces Will Turn Around".
| dang wrote:
| I'm not quite sure what to do here because the OP is currently
| being updated by the minute.
|
| Edit: ok, I've changed the title from "Putin vows to put down
| rebellion by Wagner chief Prigozhin".
| poisonarena wrote:
| he already ordered his troops back to their bases
| https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/ukraine-
| russia-...
| dang wrote:
| Can everyone please avoid the shallow/flamebait style in this
| thread? Otherwise we're going to end up with something nasty and
| boring.
|
| edit: I originally posted this as a reply to
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36460954 but that was a dumb
| idea (sorry pmarreck). I don't want to single out a particular
| user and didn't mean to shame anyone.
| rat9988 wrote:
| What is shallow about the comment your answered or flamebait.
| You might not see any interest in it, but I do see it. He
| really has a point. Russia does have problems fighting ukraine
| WITH the help of wagner, how will it fare against both?
|
| I feel it's kinda insulting the tone here. I see this trend in
| hacker news that we use the guidelines as a way to insult or
| belittle other people's comments. It's agressive but in a cunny
| way.
| dang wrote:
| "Good luck with that" is a trope and "he's already basically
| lost the war" is grandiose rhetoric. A one-liner consisting
| of those two things is both shallow and flamebait in the
| sense that we use those terms. This isn't a borderline call!
|
| (but I shouldn't have used a moderation reply as a place to
| ask "everyone" something, since that could inadvertently
| generate a mob reaction and that's the last thing we want
| here)
|
| Moderation comments are never intended as an insult or
| aggressive, but of course it's all too easy to come across
| that way without meaning to. If you or anyone wants to
| suggest ways to be more neutral about bringing up the
| guidelines, I'd be happy to take advice about it. However,
| that's different from changing the moderation standard, which
| is well established on HN.
| anigbrowl wrote:
| This isn't kindergarten, I don't want all discussion
| reduced to anodyne abstractions. I think we can handle a
| robust exchange of views now and again, even if they're not
| expressed the way you would express them.
| dang wrote:
| No one's asking for 'kindergarten' and I'm a bit puzzled
| why you would use that word, since the kindergarten side
| of the internet is the very flamewar dreck we're trying
| to avoid.
| rat9988 wrote:
| I think you don't realize that you are in fact treating
| as kids or teenagers. Telling someone his, in good faith,
| comment, is below the guideline threshold is insulting.
| It's one of the polite, absolutely not vulgar, ways, to
| say someone's comment is idiotic without answering it. If
| you think someone hasn't provided enough evidence to back
| his claim, please ask him to do in a meaningful
| discussion. The kind of remarks where you just assume
| someone is just a weird internet troll, do not serve the
| discussion, nor the website users. Please understand that
| saying something politely, as in hiding behind the
| guidelines, doesn't make it acceptable if the message is
| insulting. We should thrive to build a community based on
| mutual respect.
| pastacacioepepe wrote:
| > I think we can handle a robust exchange of views now
| and again, even if they're not expressed the way you
| would express them.
|
| The comment in question didn't add anything to the
| discussion, it was just a snarky remark. Hence no actual
| exchange of views could be derived from it, only insults
| between factions.
| foldr wrote:
| I think you've slightly missed the mark on this one. Lots
| of things are tropes (there are tropes in your comment too,
| such as 'borderline call'), and saying that Putin has
| basically lost the war (whether true or false) isn't
| anywhere close to being 'grandiose rhetoric'. I don't think
| anyone expects you to get things right 100% of the time. It
| seems to me that calling this one particular comment
| flamebait was just a mistake. While it's not a very
| interesting comment, it's at least free of the wild
| speculation that you can find in many of the unmoderated
| comments in this thread.
| dang wrote:
| I guess my criterion for 'grandiose rhetoric' is the
| bigness of a claim divided by the amount of information
| provided to support it. When the numerator is big and the
| denominator is small, that's what I mean by grandiose.
| It's one of the most common qualities on the internet,
| and one of the least interesting.
|
| I can't agree that I missed the mark on that comment -
| what I said seems well within standard mod practice on
| HN. But it's fine that you disagree - there's always
| going to be disagreement on specific cases, since we all
| have different backgrounds and therefore different
| perceptions. It's the principles that matter.
| foldr wrote:
| You asked for constructive suggestions in your original
| comment. I'd suggest not using the word 'grandiose' in
| this way. If someone accused me of using 'grandiose
| rhetoric', then I certainly wouldn't think they just
| meant to say that I'd made a strong claim without
| supporting evidence.
|
| The denominator is necessarily small as we're talking
| about a breaking news story obscured by the fog of war.
| If this is the bar that comments still have to reach in
| this context, then I wonder if the story should just
| remain flagged.
| mdp2021 wrote:
| > _What is shallow about the comment_
|
| Positional without explicit or evident basis.
| aaron695 wrote:
| Wagner have stood down, their telegram confirms -
|
| https://t.me/s/apwagner
|
| That was the most intense war played out over cyber channels I've
| seen.
|
| Telegram, Twitter, some idiot on LinkedIn. OSINT everywhere. Lots
| of blocked sites in Russia. Possible attacks on Google maps. A
| shame HN opted out. You get this sort of thing once a decade. I
| guess with the internet exploding it might happen again sooner.
| fullshark wrote:
| No offense but the live tweeting from people thirsty for
| "entertainment" looking for and cracking jokes about news
| updates on the advance made me a little queasy.
| tredre3 wrote:
| All reporting on this event is by armchair experts thirsty
| for attention and drama (including most HN commentary).
|
| That's why dang initially let the flagging persist. Wait and
| see what's real and what's not, then we can have a proper
| discussion.
| lbrito wrote:
| These days I saw a website where you could pay to write down
| your name on warheads that would eventually explode on
| someone's head. By the looks and numbers it had it seemed
| very mainstream and popular.
|
| It doesn't matter which side we're talking about. This kind
| of thing is insane and dehumanized.
| vkou wrote:
| As long as the bombs are blowing up people that my
| government has spent years propagandizing me to have
| _really strong opinions about_ , why shouldn't I be
| engaging in that sort of thing?
|
| (Obviously, I am being sarcastic.)
| 082349872349872 wrote:
| Lest we think Orwell was incredibly imaginative, his "two
| minutes hate" had many antecedents, including
| https://greatwar.nl/kleur/hymnofhate.html
| [deleted]
| layer8 wrote:
| HN isn't the right avenue for live news.
| random97531 wrote:
| on twitter
|
| @Osinttechnical @wartranslated @clashreport @sentdefender
|
| are amazing resources to watch it unfold in real time.
| translations from official sources on Telegram, crowdsourced
| content from Telegram, and a splash of propaganda that helped
| their chosen side. their typed/text content seemed to good to
| be true but the videos and pictures and reports all seem to be
| correct so far.
|
| i'm glad i stumbled across this on Twitter and i'm glad it's
| over (for now) without any more bloodshed today.
| johnohara wrote:
| Imo, the most interesting aspect of this story and its subsequent
| thread of comments is the absolute torrent of information to come
| from sources all over the internet, international media, and so-
| called experts, and the sheer impossible task of separating fact
| from fiction on a minute-by-minute basis.
| Animats wrote:
| I've been trying to see signs of this movement on webcams along
| the route. No success so far, but I was looking well north of
| Rostov.
|
| This is the kind of event you need to look at on maps. There's
| a freeway all the way from Rostov to Moscow. It's flat country
| in good weather. The first big natural obstacle is the bridges
| at the Oka River, and Russian Federation armored units are
| reportedly already in position at those bridges. So that's
| where the major battle would have been.
|
| Re: "absolute torrent of information". No. A small amount of
| information relayed through different paths and amplified. Be
| aware of that.
| [deleted]
| monetus wrote:
| A couple of telegram channels have helped for me, especially
| liveukraine_media
| gameshot911 wrote:
| Here's an above board gift link instead:
| https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-ukraine...
| abwizz wrote:
| clicking this just to advance your gifter status
| jfengel wrote:
| I'm not sure what that means. Is it positive or negative?
| alvarezbjm-hn wrote:
| "Shared with you by a Times subscriber"
|
| The "Gifter" is a Times subscriber. Subscribers can gift 10
| articles a month to non-subscribers.
| codetrotter wrote:
| That doesn't answer the question. Will more people
| clicking the link help the person that shared the link
| somehow?
| vGPU wrote:
| I don't believe it does anything. Times just lets you
| share 10 non-paywalled stories/mo. It's not like a
| referral link or anything.
| lisasays wrote:
| As an aside:
|
| "Russian TV airs Wagner rebellion briefly, then switches to
| documentary on caviar" -
| https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/russian-tv-air...
| ojbyrne wrote:
| When I look at the smirk on the face of the Wagner guy on the
| front of CNN right now:
| https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/23062417255...
|
| I feel like he got paid a large enough amount of money and got
| enough security guarantees to walk away. He is a mercenary after
| all.
| orangepanda wrote:
| As eastern european, this was rather anticlimactic.
| jacquesm wrote:
| That's good. The various possible climatic endings have way too
| much range for me.
| [deleted]
| Tade0 wrote:
| Prigozhin is showing that in terms of controlling the narrative
| he's in a different league than most of his compatriots.
|
| I see this as a continuation of what this whole debacle is all
| about: regime change.
|
| A large part of the official motivation behind this invasion is
| preventing civil war in Russia. That's why Ukraine was supposed
| to be "stabilized".
|
| Putin presents himself as a source of stability and that's how
| he's perceived for the most part.
|
| To attempt to upend this order is to be either foolish, or very
| certain of one's position with hard data to back that up.
| Prigozhin still hasn't been defenestrated, so I suppose it's more
| the latter than the former.
| vkou wrote:
| There are no factions in Russia capable of starting and
| _winning_ a civil war. The country 's military is deliberately
| fragmented into many small departments, each with their own
| standing infantry forces, and its security apparatus is tasked
| to ensure that they don't all rebel _together_.
|
| There may be some serious internal power struggle that an
| outside observer cannot see, but it's far more likely that the
| invasion was not a desperation move, but _just_ one of the many
| steps that Putin makes to increase his internal perception of
| legitimacy.
|
| There's no reason, besides our domestic propaganda and
| wishful/magical thinking to believe that it was a desperation
| move from him. His internal-to-Russia legitimacy was quite high
| prior to the war.
|
| (And it's hard to tell what it is now, because of the crackdown
| on speech and dissent. So you get political pundits who are
| talking out their ass four fifths of the time assuring is that
| no, this time, he's totally on the brink of being out, pinky
| swear...)
|
| ----
|
| Bonus points: If most of your military command is staffed by
| spineless bootlickers, who were promoted for their loyalty, as
| opposed to competence, they are _very_ unlikely to join any
| rebellion against you. There 's a good reason for a nation that
| is secure from outside invasion to have an incompetent
| military...
| pixl97 wrote:
| Well, great way to cancel your bonus is to attack another
| country with that incompetent military.
| seydor wrote:
| next, it was all a ruse for something
| Hamuko wrote:
| Not sure why they'd do that. Both Putin and Prigozhin were
| basically accusing each other of treason as Wagner was marching
| towards Moscow and shooting down Russian helicopters and
| planes. And now they're both just basically backing down,
| leaving behind a bunch of destruction on Russian soil.
| jug wrote:
| There were so far reaching effects too. They even shut down
| national TV and blocked websites in the risk of propaganda
| against them. I don't think it was for show either.
| pphysch wrote:
| Prigozhin was deeply concerned with getting personally
| marginalized as his private army gets further incorporated into
| the MoD due to their operational significance. This was evident
| from his rhetoric around Wagner contract negotiations.
|
| So this was his way of saying "I'm powerful, I'm in control, I
| matter". It was always about him and feeling tossed aside by
| powerful officials like Shoigu and Gerasimov, who need his army
| but don't care about Prigozhin. It had nothing to do with policy
| difference, it was just a pure demonstration of raw power.
|
| I would be surprised if Shoigu or Gerasimov get pushed out as a
| result, I think it is more likely that Prigozhin got guarantees
| about his own future within the military establishment, something
| of an "honorary general".
| jt2190 wrote:
| Yes. A lot of commenters here seem to be unaware that the
| Wagner Group had become uncomfortably powerful for Putin even
| prior to the Ukraine conflict, and that the incorporation of
| Wagner soldiers into the Russian Army is a clear signal that
| the Wagner Group is now being unwound and Prigozhin's days as
| the leader of a "second russian army" are over. I suspect that
| Prigozhin realized that he was being "retired" far too late,
| made a rash, desperate attempt to court popular support (he's
| prone to rash decisions) but decided that he probably couldn't
| pull it off.
| yason wrote:
| You don't march halfway to Moscow, occupy a couple of large
| cities without much bloodshed, and then turn back just after a
| quick negotiation. In a single day.
|
| Either this is part of the plan of how Prigozhin is managed by
| Kreml -- and as such, a part of how the subdivisions of power are
| managed and constantly reorganised -- or Prigozhin had acquired
| some valuable piece of power but he needed to march towards
| Moscow in order to be taken seriously.
|
| You don't try something like this unless you know you're going to
| get out of it.
| NicoJuicy wrote:
| I think he was going to be killed as head of Wagner and
| replaced.
|
| It looks like he's not getting killed for now.
|
| Perhaps the reason was surprisingly simple: He didn't want to
| die
| michaelteter wrote:
| For a man with such bark as Putin, such a pardon (if true) is an
| enormous admission of weakness.
| WhereIsTheTruth wrote:
| Knew it, I'm pretty sure they now got the confirmation that they
| got manipulated
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452875
|
| Why would they change their mind this quick, the narrative
| doesn't make sense at all, it's very hard to get proper source,
| so we'll have to compose with what we have
| Waterluvian wrote:
| I think what I'm learning the most through this is that my
| rational world is not everyone's rational world. So many of these
| actions make zero sense to me. They're illogical. They insist
| that there's surely more to the story. But I think it could
| easily just be, "I'm tired. You can have everything you want if I
| can just take ten figures and retire quietly."
|
| Will have to wait and see.
| NicoJuicy wrote:
| What makes sense to me:
|
| Wagner head was getting replaced because he was getting too
| much power
|
| Putin doesn't like someone else with power, that's why the
| military has weak leaders ( loyalty > Battlefield success).
|
| Wagner head became aware that he's going to die, he misled his
| soldiers to get out of their Russian MOD contract so they would
| join his minor rebellion.
|
| As soon as he got the assurance he's going to survive after his
| bold move ( his only move, since he got ignored by Russian
| military leaders), he jumped ship to Belarus.
|
| My 2 cents for now
| zoklet-enjoyer wrote:
| There's a Telegram post supposedly from Prigozhin saying the
| negotiations failed. I think it's too early for us to know what's
| really going on.
| peppermint_gum wrote:
| There isn't. Prigozhin's official Telegram account is
| "concordgroup_official".
|
| The problem is that many OSINT guys and journalists are
| informationally illiterate and blindly spread fakes from random
| Telegram and Twitter accounts.
| NicoJuicy wrote:
| Seems well planned. On a Friday night when most troops were drunk
| and going into the weekend.
|
| The end result is a bit unclear, i still think that Prigozhin
| will fall from a window ( or however they want to get rid of
| him).
|
| But I can't believe it's only Shiogu he was after, who wanted him
| dead ( revenge), that's a huge risk to take.
|
| I first thought he just wanted to boost his political ambition,
| but he did attack Putin ( the tsar can never be at fault in
| Russian culture). This action has portrayed Putin as weak
| internally and history wise, weak leaders were killed. I don't
| think it's forgivable.
|
| All in all, this wasn't a coup.
|
| This was putting military pressure for political reasons.
|
| The main advantage was speed and showing how incompetent the
| current Russian generals are.
|
| If Shiogu will be replaced, that's not good news. He's a
| incompetent loyalist without any military experience and a pure
| politician, it benefited Ukraine a lot from my POV.
| FooBarBizBazz wrote:
| When all this finishes, Prigozhin is going to need one hell of a
| biographer. It's a book I'd read for sure. How do you go from
| running a hot dog stand to leading a mercenary force in -- a
| coup? Is that what's going on? It's unclear. But whatever is
| happening there's some fascinating character arc underneath.
| sgt wrote:
| And who should direct the movie... Oliver Stone (natural
| choice) or someone like James Cameron? The latter due to the
| Nordstream pipeline scenes.
| [deleted]
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