[HN Gopher] From Word Models to World Models
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       From Word Models to World Models
        
       Author : dimmuborgir
       Score  : 86 points
       Date   : 2023-06-23 10:57 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arxiv.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arxiv.org)
        
       | antisthenes wrote:
       | World modeling is impossible without sensory input.
       | 
       | You need constant modeling of touch/smell/vision/temperature,
       | etc.
       | 
       | These senses give us an actual understanding of the physical
       | world and drive our behavior in a way that pure language will
       | never be able to.
        
         | stevenhuang wrote:
         | A facsimile of sufficient equivalence to the world models we
         | derive from our 5 senses may be approached through derivation
         | of descriptive language only.
         | 
         | "sufficient equivalence" is important because sure it may not
         | _really_ know the color of red or the qualia of being, but if
         | for all intents and purposes the LLM's internal model provides
         | predictive power and _answers_ correctly as if it _does_ have a
         | world model, then what is the difference?
        
           | esafak wrote:
           | That's not how physics works. We understand the world by
           | interacting with it. How do you know your internal model is
           | right until it is tested in reality?
        
             | thewataccount wrote:
             | Yeah but we can serialize the world to numbers and already
             | have.
             | 
             | I asked GPT3.5turbo "Pretend you are a character called
             | Samatha and you're in your house. You go up to the
             | thermostat and select a comfortable temperature and
             | explained your reasoning"
             | 
             | > Next, I take into account my personal preferences and
             | comfort levels. Everyone has their own ideal temperature
             | range, and it's essential to find the sweet spot that makes
             | me feel most comfortable. For me, it's usually between 22
             | to 24 degrees Celsius (72 to 75 degrees Fahrenheit). This
             | range allows me to feel neither too cold nor too warm,
             | striking the perfect balance.
             | 
             | It also goes on about how the humidity could effect the
             | desired temperature, etc.
             | 
             | It doesn't need the ability to feel temperature (which
             | could also be a single floating number using kelvin), but
             | it can already describe a "comfortable temperature" and
             | what factors would effect it.
             | 
             | Side note: It doesn't "know" anything, it can only make a
             | "best guess" which is now fairly reliable enough to be
             | useful. It doesn't need the ability to test things to
             | learn, we did it already for it, and it's using that to
             | predict the results. You could make a recursive system to
             | allow it to test data if you'd like though.
        
             | stevenhuang wrote:
             | Seems you're unaware the amount of world knowledge that
             | already exist in written form.
             | 
             | Think of all the top journals, textbooks, etc. People have
             | understood the world by interacting with it, detailed their
             | hypothesis, conducted experiments, recalled their learning
             | and written down conclusions.
             | 
             | It's not at all obvious to say a useful world model cannot
             | be derived strictly from all this written information.
        
       | gibsonf1 wrote:
       | Unfortunately, this effort fully misses the boat. Human cognition
       | is about concepts, not language, and that's where one must start
       | to understand it. Language simply serializes our conceptual
       | thinking in multiple language formats, the key is what's being
       | serialized and how that actually works in conceptual awareness.
        
         | buzzy_hacker wrote:
         | Maybe they can't be so fully separated.
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linguistic_relativity
        
           | gibsonf1 wrote:
           | I think the key point is that serialized words symbolize
           | concepts and other logic such that if you can't retrieve that
           | concept into your awareness, you will not understand the
           | word. Learning and forming the concepts comes prior to
           | attaching common word symbols to them based on the region you
           | live in. So if you start with words, you never get anywhere,
           | hence the complete lack of any intelligence in the LLM
           | approach.
        
       | ilaksh wrote:
       | So they are using GPT-4 to write Lisp? Or some probabilistic
       | language that looks like Lisp.
       | 
       | They keep saying LLMs but only GPT-4 can do it at that level.
       | Although actually some of the examples were pretty basic so I
       | guess it really depends on the level of complexity.
       | 
       | I feel like this could be really useful in cases where you want
       | some kind of auditable and machine interpretable rationale for
       | doing something. Such as self driving cars or military
       | applications. Or maybe some robots. It could make it feasible to
       | add a layer of hard rules in a way.
        
       | mjburgess wrote:
       | The level of understanding of the problem that this paper
       | expresses is extraordianry in my reading of this field --- it's a
       | genuinely amazing synthesis.
       | 
       | > How could the common-sense background knowledge needed for
       | dynamic world model synthesis be represented, even in principle?
       | Modern game engines may provide important clues.
       | 
       | This has often been my starting point in modelling the difference
       | between a model-of-pixels vs. a world model. Any given video game
       | session can be "replayed" by a model of its pixels: but you
       | cannot play the game with such a model. It does not represent the
       | causal laws of the game.
       | 
       | Even if you had all possible games you could not resolve between
       | player-caused and world-caused frames.
       | 
       | > A key question is how to model this capability. How do minds
       | craft bespoke world models on the fly, drawing in just enough of
       | our knowledge about the world to answer the questions of
       | interest?
       | 
       | This requires a body: the relevant information missing is causal,
       | and the body resolves P(A|B) and P(A|B->A) by making bodily
       | actions interpreted as necessarily causal.
       | 
       | In the case of video games, since we hold the controller, we
       | resolve P(EnemyDead|EnemyHit) vs. P(EnemyDead| (ButtonPress ->)
       | EnemyHit -> EnemyDead)
        
       | antiquark wrote:
       | I doubt that word models can lead to world models. To quote Yann
       | LeCun:
       | 
       | "The vast majority of our knowledge, skills, and thoughts are not
       | verbalizable. That's one reason machines will never acquire
       | common sense solely by reading text."
       | 
       | https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1368235803147649028
        
         | FrustratedMonky wrote:
         | >"solely by reading text".
         | 
         | Of course, that does leave the door Open, that when these
         | models are put in a physical real body, a robot, and have to
         | interact with the world, then maybe they can gain that "common
         | sense".
         | 
         | This doesn't mean a silicon based AI can't become conscious of
         | skills that are hard to verbalize. Just that they don't yet
         | have all the same inputs that we have. And when they do, and
         | they have internal thoughts, they will have the same difficulty
         | verbalizing them that we do.
        
         | stevenhuang wrote:
         | Yann LeCun has a vested interest in downplaying LLM emergent
         | abilities.
         | 
         | His research at meta is in the analytic approach to machine
         | learning. As result he is very unabashed in expressing distaste
         | of ML approaches that don't align with his research.
         | 
         | Really, there is no larger sore loser than LeCun in
         | internalizing the bitter lesson. Quoting him without this
         | context is being deliberately misleading.
        
         | moffkalast wrote:
         | That just seems like an unfounded hot take. Of course we can
         | explain most of our knowledge, skills, and thoughts in words,
         | that's how we don't lose everything when the next generation
         | comes around lol. It's the core reason we're different from
         | animals.
         | 
         | Now sure you can't describe qualia, but that's basically a
         | subjective artefact of how we sense the world and (to add
         | another unfounded hot take) likely not critical to have an
         | understanding of it on a physical level.
        
           | pphysch wrote:
           | > Of course we can explain most of our knowledge, skills, and
           | thoughts in words, that's how we don't lose everything when
           | the next generation comes around lol.
           | 
           | I would wager if you put a newborn human to be raised in the
           | absence of any physical human contact, but somehow taught
           | them to read/write, and gave them access to a universal
           | corpus (text only, no audio/video), or heck, even internet
           | access with `curl`, and lastly dropped them into the "real
           | world" at age 25, they would be utterly incapable of
           | performing, say, a basic service job at a restaurant.
           | 
           | Words help us symbolize and reason about our _sense
           | experiences_ , but they are not a substitute for them.
        
             | esafak wrote:
             | Sure. Reading about colors will tell you nothing about them
             | until you can see a depiction of them attached to their
             | names. Same with all the other senses.
        
           | dimatura wrote:
           | I disagree that this is an "unfounded hot take". It's far
           | from a rare opinion on cognitive science, and if I had to
           | guess it's probably the mainstream opinion (I can't really
           | back that up with citations because I haven't followed the
           | field closely in the last decade). And for what it's worth, I
           | agree with Yann, although I have to admit that LLMs work far
           | better than I would've guessed.
           | 
           | It's a topic that's too large for an HM comment, but
           | "explaining" things in words comes after the fact, and mostly
           | limited to a small subset of our experience and skillset that
           | is amenable to it.
           | 
           | Note that humans are animals too, btw. And conversely, I
           | would consider nonverbal people as humans as well.
        
             | moffkalast wrote:
             | Well I admit I used to be of a similar opinion as well, but
             | seeing this explosion unravel over the past few months has
             | me convinced that it's can't possibly be right, at least
             | not to any degree that objectively matters.
             | 
             | Perhaps language is the wrong term to use, since it's not
             | what LLMs are really about. They're about text. There are
             | very few things that cannot be expressed as text, albeit in
             | unconventional ways like base64. Being opaque to humans
             | doesn't mean that with enough data a neural net can't be
             | taught to "see" images that way or "hear" sound files for
             | example. If the original assertion is true, then there must
             | be some kind of universal barrier to skills that cannot be
             | expressed in text. That sounds completely crazy to me,
             | since we humans are also likely just organic data that
             | could be expressed as text with some encoding. The main
             | problem is interfacing with it in some way that's actually
             | useful, which is the extremely hard part.
             | 
             | Another thing to consider is that with a formalized enough
             | language (i.e. a programming language) one can be far more
             | exact in explaining things accurately than any natural
             | language with its cultural specifics and inferred nonsense.
             | That's probably why LLMs designed as coding models first
             | and foremost usually outperform those that aren't in
             | solving unrelated arbitrary problems.
             | 
             | > Note that humans are animals too, btw. And conversely, I
             | would consider nonverbal people as humans as well.
             | 
             | Humans are animals in the biological sense, yes. But very
             | much not in the societal and skill-transferring sense.
        
           | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
           | > Of course we can explain most of our knowledge, skills, and
           | thoughts in words,
           | 
           | This is either some profound miscomprehension of just how
           | many of your skills and thoughts are inexpressible in words,
           | or some statement of how profoundly shallow your skills and
           | thoughts actually are.
        
         | valine wrote:
         | What concepts exactly can't be verbalized? All of our
         | serialized file formats fall under the umbrella of "words".
         | GPT4 can draw images by outputting SVGs for example.
        
           | antiquark wrote:
           | > What concepts exactly can't be verbalized?
           | 
           | I would like to explain, but I can't quite put it into
           | words...
           | 
           | :)
        
             | valine wrote:
             | Trying drawing a picture of it and save it as an SVG.
        
       | wilonth wrote:
       | Was excited for a moment, thought it was related to this
       | https://worldmodels.github.io/.
       | 
       | World models are meant to be for simulating environments. If this
       | was something like testing if a game agent with llm can form
       | thoughts as it play through some game it would be very
       | interesting. Maybe someone on HN can do this?
        
         | Philpax wrote:
         | Check out https://voyager.minedojo.org/, which uses a LLM to
         | play Minecraft.
        
         | wilonth wrote:
         | "Hush hush, I'm gonna sacrifice the queen to do a surprise
         | checkmate!" Agent said
        
       | cs702 wrote:
       | After a quick/superficial read, my understanding is that the
       | authors:
       | 
       | (a) induce an LLM to take natural language inputs and generate
       | statements in a probabilistic programming language that formally
       | models concepts, objects, actions, etc. in a symbolic world
       | model, drawing from a large body of research on symbolic AI that
       | goes back to pre-deep-learning days; and
       | 
       | (b) perform inference using the generated formal statements,
       | i.e., compute probability distributions over the space of
       | possible world states that are consistent with and conditioned on
       | the natural-language input to the LLM.
       | 
       | If this approach works at a larger scale, it represents a
       | possible solution for grounding LLMs so they stop making stuff up
       | -- an important unsolved problem.
       | 
       | The public repo is at https://github.com/gabegrand/world-models
       | but the code necessary for replicating results has not been
       | published yet.
       | 
       | The volume of interesting new research being done on LLMs
       | continues to amaze me.
       | 
       | We sure live in interesting times!
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | PS. If any of the authors are around, please feel free to point
       | out any errors in my understanding.
        
         | skepticATX wrote:
         | I have not yet read the paper, but based on this description it
         | seems like it provides grounding _in the context of the
         | training data_ , which is kind of the rub with current LLMs to
         | begin with, right? We don't have a set of high quality training
         | data that is completely unbiased and factual.
        
           | cs702 wrote:
           | I'd describe it as grounding the model with a formally
           | specified _symbolic world model_.
        
           | agnosticmantis wrote:
           | > ... which is kind of the rub with current LLMs to begin
           | with, right?
           | 
           | No, the bigger problem with current LLMs is that even with
           | high quality factual training data, they often generate
           | seemingly plausible nonsense (e.g. cite nonexistent
           | websites/papers as their sources.)
           | 
           | This is by design imo; they're trained to generate 'likely'
           | text, and they do that extremely well. There's no guarantee
           | for faithful retrieval from a corpus.
        
             | novaRom wrote:
             | Important addition to your partially right statement:
             | "they're trained to generate 'likely' text" is they are
             | trained to produce most probable next word so that the
             | current context look as "similar" to training data as
             | possible. Where "similar" is not "equal".
        
       | mjburgess wrote:
       | It's a surprise to see a paper actually try to solve the problem
       | of modelling thought via language.
       | 
       | Nevertheless, it begins with far too many hedges:
       | 
       | > By scaling to even larger datasets and neural networks, LLMs
       | appeared to learn not only the structure of language, but
       | capacities for some kinds of thinking
       | 
       | There's two hypotheses for how LLMs generate apparently "thought-
       | expressing" outputs: Hyp1 -- it's sampling from similar text
       | which is distributed so-as-to-express a thought by some agent;
       | Hyp2 -- it has the capacity to form that thought.
       | 
       | It is absolutely trivial to show Hyp2 is false:
       | 
       | > Current LLMs can produce impressive results on a set of
       | linguistic inputs and then fail completely on others that make
       | trivial alterations to the same underlying domain.
       | 
       | Indeed: because there're no relevant prior cases to sample from
       | in that case.
       | 
       | > These issues make it difficult to evaluate whether LLMs have
       | acquired cognitive capacities such as social reasoning and theory
       | of mind
       | 
       | It doesnt. It's trivial: the disproof lies one sentence above.
       | Its just that many don't like the answer. Such _capacities_
       | survive trivial permutations -- LLMs do not. So Hypothesis-2 is
       | clearly _false_.
        
         | bryan0 wrote:
         | Failing on "trivial alterations to the same underlying domain"
         | is a not a disproof of thought.
         | 
         | Your argument also implies hyp1 and 2 are exclusive, clearly
         | both can be true, and in fact must be true, unless you are
         | claiming that you do not "sample" from similar language to
         | express your own thoughts? Where does your language come from
         | then, if not learning from previous experience?
        
         | rytill wrote:
         | I don't think you really disproved anything. You're just saying
         | another hypothesis. Often, LLMs produce impressive results on
         | domains that aren't in the training set.
        
           | sgt101 wrote:
           | >LLMs produce impressive results on domains that aren't in
           | the training set.
           | 
           | How do we know? Who knows what they're trained on?
        
         | og_kalu wrote:
         | >It is absolutely trivial to show Hyp2 is false
         | 
         | No it's not
         | 
         | > Current LLMs can produce impressive results on a set of
         | linguistic inputs and then fail completely on others that make
         | trivial alterations to the same underlying domain.
         | 
         | >Indeed: because there're no relevant prior cases to sample
         | from in that case.
         | 
         | That's not what that tells us. Humans have weird failure modes
         | that look absurd outside the context of evolutionary biology
         | (some still look absurd) and that don't speak to any lack or
         | presence of intelligence or complex thought. Not sure why it's
         | so hard to grasp that LLMs are bound to have odd failure modes
         | regardless of the above.
         | 
         | and trivial here is relative. In my experience, "trivial" often
         | turns out to be trivial in the way a person may not pay close
         | attention to and be similarly tricked.
         | 
         | For instance, GPT-4 might solve a classic puzzle correctly then
         | fail the same puzzle subtlety changed. I've found more often
         | than not, simply changing names of variables in the puzzle to
         | something completely different can get it to solve the changed
         | puzzle. It takes memory shortcuts but can be pulled out of
         | that. LLMs have failure modes that look like human failure
         | modes too.
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | The "failure modes" in humans do not show we lack the
           | capacity.
           | 
           | Eg., do you have capacity to reason about physics? Well if
           | you're extremely drunk, less so. But not if I permute the
           | _name of the object_.
           | 
           | > I've found more often than not, simply changing names of
           | variables
           | 
           | Yes, lol --- why do you think that is?
           | 
           | Because in the digitised dataset of "everything ever written"
           | those names correspond to places in that dataset that can be
           | sampled from by the LLM. Showing Hyp1 to be the case.
           | 
           | P(Hyp1| ChangeNameMakesDifference) >>>>>>
           | P(Hyp2|ChangeNameMakesDifference)
           | 
           | To such a degree that the latter is vanishingly close to
           | zero.
        
             | lgessler wrote:
             | This is a false dichotomy. It's not the case that models
             | are truly capable of reasoning if and only if they are
             | insensitive to irrelevant perturbations to input. In other
             | words, the mere fact that sensitivity to names sometimes
             | causes significant degradations in model performance
             | doesn't mean that we've observed models are incapable of
             | anything we might call "reasoning"--leaving aside the
             | matter of how we'd define that.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | I didnt say "if and only if" -- this is a conceptual
               | analysis condition which applies only under deductive
               | analysis.
               | 
               | I am using science, ie., abduction, to compare a class of
               | hypotheses.
               | 
               | P(CapacityToThink| DegradingPermutations,
               | ModelDrawsFromHistoricalCases)
               | 
               | is much much much lower than,
               | 
               | P(-CapacityToThink| DegradingPermutations,
               | ModelDrawsFromHistoricalCases)
        
               | achrono wrote:
               | This might be a naive question, but here me out. Do we
               | really know what the difference is between statistics and
               | the capacity to think? Is "true understanding" rather a
               | continuum of sophistication from a simple adder to Albert
               | Einstein?
               | 
               | My point here isn't "if it quacks like a duck...", but
               | more so that while we are talking about intelligent
               | apparatus we should be comparing apples to apples, and
               | not say "this is a mere engine and that is a living
               | brain".
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | lgessler wrote:
               | Idk, that isn't the sense I got from "It is absolutely
               | trivial to show Hyp2 is false", but sure, I agree with
               | you that this evidence certainly ought to tip the scales
               | one way and not the other.
        
             | lostmsu wrote:
             | > less so. But not if I permute the name of the object.
             | 
             | You need to realize that you wrote it on a forum where the
             | most known joke is "there are two hard things in
             | programming". That would immediately show you how this
             | assumption is exactly false.
        
             | og_kalu wrote:
             | >The "failure modes" in humans do not show we lack the
             | capacity.
             | 
             | Then they don't in LLMs too
             | 
             | >Yes, lol --- why do you think that is?
             | 
             | Being able to solve a changed common puzzle but also with
             | different names than it would ever see in training is not
             | an indication of a lack of ability lol. and changing names
             | isn't the only way to get it out of memory, just the
             | easiest/most straightforward. You can converse it out of
             | there too but that doesn't work as often.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | > Then they don't in LLMs too
               | 
               | LLMs don't get drunk .
               | 
               | If a child answers questions from a book of answers then
               | they'll appear to understand the domain insofar as those
               | questions appear. They do not.
               | 
               | They will fail to answer questions under, eg.,
               | permutations of words (say, a question asks about
               | "norepinephrine" but the book only contains
               | "noradrenaline" etc.).
               | 
               | Insofar as a human cannot answer questions under trivial
               | linguistic permutations then _they too_ do not understand
               | the domain.
               | 
               | But these _are not_ the kinds of failures experienced
               | with those who have some capacity, eg., for counter-
               | factual reasoning about their environment 's physics.
               | 
               | In those people it is environmental illusion and
               | cognitive impairment -- not trivial permutations of
               | phrasing which lead to catastrophic loss of apparent
               | understanding.
               | 
               | Cognitive impairment = reasoning machine is broken
               | 
               | Environmental illusion = data is ambigious and actions
               | cannto resolve it
               | 
               | These "failure modes" are _expected_ if you actually have
               | the relevant capacity.
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | >Insofar as a human cannot answer questions under trivial
               | linguistic permutations then they too do not understand
               | the domain.
               | 
               | alright let me humor you for a bit. Lets start with some
               | solid examples of GPT-4 failing this "trivial linguistic
               | permutation" then ?
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | see, just one reference in the paper:
               | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2302.08399.pdf
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | they can answer those
               | 
               | https://medium.com/@nathanbos/prompting-better-theory-of-
               | min...
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Yes, by changing the words
               | 
               | The whole point is that irrelevant word permutation
               | _should not_ "turn on" or "turn off" this capacity.
               | 
               | That you can "prompt engineer" your way to the answer
               | shows that the prompt engineer knows the answer and can
               | "use the right search terms" to find it.
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | "But the bag is transparent" is not "irrelevant word
               | permutation" and neither is the additive question that
               | spurs the correct resolution. And it certainly isn't
               | random.
               | 
               | a human that isn't paying attention could fail the
               | question too which is kind of the point i'm making.
               | 
               | There's no way a model that can't model protein
               | structures does this - https://www.researchgate.net/publi
               | cation/367453911_Large_lan...
        
               | moffkalast wrote:
               | > LLMs don't get drunk .
               | 
               | Well actually they sort of can...
               | 
               | https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/13vv941/temp
               | era...
        
           | sgt101 wrote:
           | was with you until:
           | 
           | > look absurd outside the context of evolutionary biology
           | 
           | for humans, everything (everthing) is within the context of
           | evolutionary biology!
           | 
           | > LLMs have failure modes that look like human failure modes
           | too.
           | 
           | Yes - because LLM's are trained on 2020 Reddit.
        
             | og_kalu wrote:
             | >for humans, everything (everthing) is within the context
             | of evolutionary biology!
             | 
             | Sure but if some alien species were observing us, some of
             | our actions would look downright odd. Evolutionary biology
             | doesn't necessarily hold the same reference frame for other
             | species, even on earth. Octopi are weird to us. Not so much
             | to other Octopi.
             | 
             | >Yes - because LLM's are trained on 2020 Reddit.
             | 
             | I wasn't making any comment on why this was the case.
             | Simply that it was. There'll be failure models LLMs adopt
             | from training data, but there's also bound to be failure
             | modes LLMs adopt from the training scheme itself.
        
         | jbay808 wrote:
         | > It is absolutely trivial to show Hyp2 is false
         | 
         | To investigate precisely this question in a clear and
         | unambiguous way, I trained an LLM from scratch to sort lists of
         | numbers. It learned to sort them correctly, and the entropy is
         | such that it's absolutely impossible that it could have done
         | this by Hyp1 (sampling from similar text in the training set).
         | 
         | https://jbconsulting.substack.com/p/its-not-just-statistics-...
         | 
         | Now, there is room to argue that it applies a world-model when
         | given lists of numbers with a hidden logical structure, but not
         | when given lists of words with a hidden logical structure, but
         | I think the ball is in your court to make that argument. (And
         | to a transformer, it only ever sees lists of numbers anyway).
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | So this is a really good starting point -- but you havent
           | formulated any hypotheses that can be tested. You've just
           | looked at the graph and "reckoned something".
           | 
           | Formally, what hypotheses are you comparing? What do you
           | think the specific hypothesis of the "AI = stats" person is?
           | It isnt that the NN literally remembers data tokens, right?
           | 
           | In any case:
           | 
           | The issue with forcing NNs to model mathematical features is
           | that the structure of the data itself has those properties.
           | So the distributional hypothesis _is true_ for sorting
           | ordinals.
           | 
           | But it's really obviously false for natural language. The
           | properties of the world _are not_ the properties of word
           | order... being red isnt  "red follows words like...".
        
             | jbay808 wrote:
             | > you havent formulated any hypotheses that can be tested.
             | You've just looked at the graph and "reckoned something"
             | 
             | Let's not be so hasty. I think I do put it as clearly as
             | possible. I'm comparing essentially your Hyp1 and Hyp2,
             | where Hyp1 (aka the _stochastic parrot_ ) is expressed a
             | little bit more clearly as the LLM is learning an _n_ -gram
             | that produces correct sorts through rote memorization of
             | statistical correlations in the training data, like that
             | sorted lists tend to start with '0', end with '99', and
             | increase monotonically; and Hyp2 is that the LLM's training
             | molds it into representing an _actual sorting algorithm_
             | that would correctly generalize to any input list.
             | 
             | > But it's really obviously false for natural language. The
             | properties of the world are not the properties of word
             | order... being red isnt "red follows words like..."
             | 
             | This is not _really obviously_ false. Yes, being red isn 't
             | "red follows words like...". But a word order should still
             | map to properties of the world, especially if those words
             | are to be meaningful to a listener. Being red is "a surface
             | reflects or transmits most of the light in the 600-800 nm
             | spectrum and absorbs most of the rest". Of course, it won't
             | do to just echo those tokens; once you've nailed down the
             | concept of "red", you need to make sure that concepts like
             | "reflects", "light", and "spectrum" are represented as
             | well. It's an open question as to whether this sort of
             | knowledge graph can be properly bootstrapped from a large
             | volume of text descriptions, but I am strongly inclined to
             | believe it can. If you dismiss it outright you're just
             | begging the question.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | There are an infinite number of sentences which describe
               | what "being red" is, most of them have never been
               | written.
               | 
               | Redness is not in the structure of those sentences. And
               | there will always be an infinity of sentences which are
               | True but cannot be infered by an LLM -- but can be so,
               | trivially, by a person acquainted with redness.
               | 
               | In any case,
               | 
               | I'd need more time than I have at the moment to seriously
               | state Hyp1 for your case -- but atm, I can say that
               | because the data itself has the property, Hyp1 becomes
               | much harder to state and the argument much subtler.
               | 
               | Since what is a "statistical distribution" of "ordinals"
               | anyway? And how much memory is required to represent it?
               | My sense is this distribution has highly redundant
               | features which will be trivially compressible without
               | learning any "sorting algorithm".
               | 
               | At a quick glance of your article it feels like you
               | havent formulated Hyp1 correctly -- P(CorrectSort |
               | f(HistoricalCases)) is perhaps arbitrarily high if some
               | statistical f() can be chosen well.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | > _There are an infinite number of sentences which
               | describe what "being red" is, most of them have never
               | been written._
               | 
               | Which is exactly how the set of sentences _actually
               | written_ encodes in it the idea of  "Redness". It's the
               | "actually written" part that carries information about
               | the real world.
               | 
               | > _And there will always be an infinity of sentences
               | which are True but cannot be infered by an LLM -- but can
               | be so, trivially, by a person acquainted with redness._
               | 
               | That's cheating, because "a person acquainted with
               | redness" presumably learned it _by sight_ , which LLMs
               | can't do just yet (at least the widely accessible ones
               | can't). Would you also say that a person born blind also
               | cannot infer those True sentences about redness? Because
               | if they can, that means the concept of redness is capable
               | of being taught through language, and so there's no
               | reason LLMs couldn't pick up on it too.
        
               | jbay808 wrote:
               | > Redness is not in the structure of those sentences.
               | 
               | Sure; it's in the spectrum of reflected light. (Or
               | perhaps, the retina's trichromal responsivity). But that
               | physical concept can be meaningfully _described_ by
               | sentences. It doesn 't require an infinite number of them
               | to create a coherent world-model, which can do things
               | like predicting that a blue object will become red if it
               | moves away from you at a high enough speed. Which is
               | something a human might be surprised by even after many
               | years of visual experience with red objects -- unless
               | they've read sentences about the Doppler effect in a
               | physics textbook.
               | 
               | If you can manage to trick GPT-4 into revealing that it
               | doesn't have a world-model of the concept of 'red',
               | please show us!
               | 
               | > At a quick glance of your article it feels like you
               | havent formulated Hyp1 correctly -- P(CorrectSort |
               | f(HistoricalCases)) is perhaps arbitrarily high if some
               | statistical f() can be chosen well.
               | 
               | Keep in mind, the LLM's structure was not hand-crafted to
               | do well on this mathematical task. It was built to be
               | good at language modelling, and initialized with
               | essentially a uniform prior over all token sequences.
               | Even if a dataset is efficiently compressible, that's no
               | guarantee that the LLM will be able to compress it
               | efficiently. In fact, many people would probably be
               | surprised to learn that it can do this problem at all,
               | let alone so well with so little training. But do think
               | about the statistics of sorting a bit more. I think it's
               | not as easily compressible as you think it is, except by
               | an actual sorting algorithm. Again, you can compress it a
               | bit with monotonicity and so on, but nowhere near the
               | amount you'd need to sort a long list without errors,
               | using so few parameters. I compute the number of sorted
               | and unsorted lists in the footnotes.
               | 
               | One of the things that makes sorting tricky for an LLM is
               | you always need to look at every item in the input list.
               | Even if the previous output token was '99', you can't be
               | sure you're now at the end of the list; you still need to
               | count how many '99's were output already and how many are
               | needed.
               | 
               | (The dataset itself, of course, does not contain the
               | notion of sorting, a description of sorting, a test for
               | sortedness, or any algorithm for sorting. It only
               | contains a large but finite number of examples of sorted
               | and unsorted lists. It's up to the LLM, and its training
               | process, to discover the mechanism that generated these
               | results.)
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | > that's no guarantee that the LLM will be able to
               | compress it efficiently
               | 
               | Your LLM here is 600MB which is a grossly inefficient
               | compression of the sort space.
               | 
               | If LLMs "learned algorithms", the best compression would
               | be on the order of bytes.
               | 
               | The python to generate this list is c. 1kb -- and you're
               | using an obscene 600MB to do it!
               | 
               | What do you think all those MBs are doing? They're the
               | extraordinary cost of the "statistical shortcut" of
               | modelling the empirical distribution of sorted numbers.
               | 
               | NNs exploit distributional structure in the training data
               | to compress it --- in this case there's huge amounts of
               | distributional structure in numbers.
               | 
               | I think you've misunderstood the "statistical parrot"
               | claim to be somehow that NNs are engaged in wrote
               | memorization... or, what?
               | 
               | The claim is simply that all they do is statistically
               | approximate the empirical distribution of the training
               | dataset structure --- and if you force interpolation,
               | then they provide arbitrarily precise compressions of
               | that structure.
               | 
               | I'm not sure what a NN which can sort numbers shows,
               | other than the distributional structure of a sort-numbers
               | dataset is such that a NN can compress it into 600MB...
               | 
               | To be clear, the "statistical parrot" claim is that the
               | statistical distribution of the empirical dataset D = (X,
               | y) is being approximated by the weights, W = Compress(D)
               | -- and that this distribution fails to be a
               | representational model of y -- because no entailments of
               | X (other than those in D) are captured.
               | 
               | Whereas representational models are not confined to the
               | distribution of historical cases, ie., I can imagine
               | variations on X leading to any given y; and variations on
               | y leading to any given X -- without ever having
               | experienced either.
               | 
               | You're showing the system vast amounts of numbers being
               | sorted, so it learns the distribution of that data, so it
               | can replay those sorts.
               | 
               | I'm not exactly sure why you think this is a reply to the
               | relevant claims.
        
               | jstanley wrote:
               | > The python to generate this list is c. 1kb -- and
               | you're using an obscene 600MB to do it!
               | 
               | This isn't a fair comparison. The python code to sort a
               | list is leveraging an enormous amount of information that
               | is stored outside the python code, whereas the GPT
               | version basically has to do it "from scratch", and in a
               | very convoluted computing model.
               | 
               | A better comparison would be "how many bits does it take
               | to encode a configuration of NAND gates that describes a
               | computer that can sort 127-byte lists of number 1..100?"
               | 
               | I'm sure it's not as much as 600 megabytes, but it'll be
               | a lot more than the python code.
        
               | jbay808 wrote:
               | > If LLMs "learned algorithms", the best compression
               | would be on the order of bytes.
               | 
               | Yes. Except:
               | 
               | (1) the model size is fixed during training, it would be
               | impossible to obtain a bytes-sized result regardless of
               | what it learns to represent. One might even open the
               | thing up and find bubblesort* inside followed by 599 MB
               | of junk DNA; that size is dictated by how it was
               | initialized.
               | 
               | (2) I'm not claiming this model is a minimal size; I
               | started with the biggest model I could train on my wimpy
               | GPU and succeeded on my first and only try, which I think
               | is a fairer representation of how GPT-4 was built than if
               | I'd started by proving the minimum size of transformer
               | that could represent the task** and then (surprise!)
               | obtained it.
               | 
               | (3) Compared with the size of a map of all 10^80 unique
               | input lists to all 10^36 correctly-corresponding sorted
               | outputs, 600 MB is a remarkable compression ratio, even
               | if it's not reducing it all the way down to _exec(
               | "sort(input)")_.
               | 
               | (4) Nowhere do I make any claim that transformers are
               | minimal or even space-efficient representation of an
               | algorithm (or a world-model); in fact, they seem quite
               | terrible in this respect, especially compared to
               | arbitrary code. And doubtless there are a bunch of
               | weights that got trained to near-zero and could be
               | trimmed to make the matrices more sparse, or quantized,
               | which is the kind of thing people do to compress an LLM
               | itself but I didn't bother. What transformers do seem to
               | do very well at, despite the overhead, is the
               | differentiability that allows them to be trained in the
               | first place, and also the flexibility to handle different
               | kinds of problems. I could have trained the same blank-
               | slate starting model to one that shuffles or reverses
               | each list, or perhaps to do one or the other depending on
               | whether the first number is odd or even, or any number of
               | other tasks.
               | 
               | > You're showing the system vast amounts of numbers being
               | sorted, so it learns the distribution of that data, so it
               | can replay those sorts.
               | 
               | It's almost definitely the case that every list it's
               | tested on, and sorts 100% correctly, is a list it has
               | never seen in training (unless it's a very short list,
               | but I control for that). My training dataset is only
               | about 100 MB; given the number of random lists, it's
               | vanishingly unlikely that it's seen almost any of them,
               | let alone the 100% of them that it is able to sort
               | correctly. (The tests, of course, were not drawing from
               | the validation set either; I test the model by generating
               | new lists on the fly, because that's easy to do).
               | 
               | > statistically approximate the empirical distribution of
               | the training dataset structure
               | 
               | Can you provide more details about what you mean by this
               | distributional structure that can be compressed without a
               | generally-correct sorting algorithm? How would you define
               | a similarity measure between distinct random lists that
               | allows for this kind of interpolation?
               | 
               | * Well, probably RASP-sort, not bubblesort. Also, it
               | would need to include definitions of things like the
               | comparison operator between all tokens, because it
               | doesn't have a numeric datatype built in, or even the
               | idea of numbers as an ordered set; it has to learn all
               | that.
               | 
               | ** (the Weiss paper does this, and lo and behold,
               | transformers can indeed sort).
        
         | redox99 wrote:
         | If it's "absolutely trivial" to show that LLMs don't have the
         | capacity to form thought, then please publish a paper proving
         | that. So all the "stupid" people studying LLMs that can't come
         | up with such trivial proofs can move on to other stuff.
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | You may wish to read the paper above. But if you want a quick
           | proof:
           | 
           | 1. A thought is a representation of a situation
           | 
           | 2. A representation generates entailments of that situation
           | 
           | 3. Language is many-to-one translation from these
           | representations to symbols
           | 
           | 4. Understanding language is reversing these symbols into
           | thoughts (ie., reprs)
           | 
           | So,
           | 
           | 5. If agent A understands sentence X then A forms the
           | relevant representation of X.
           | 
           | 6. If agent has a representation it can state entailments of
           | S (eg., counter-facutals).
           | 
           | Now, split X into Xc = "canonical descriptions of S" and
           | trivial permutations Xp.
           | 
           | (st. distribution of Xc,Xp is low, but the tokens of Xp are
           | common)
           | 
           | Form entailments of X, say Y -- sentences that are
           | cannonically implied by the truth of X.
           | 
           | 7. If the LLM understood that X entails Y, it would be via
           | constructing the repr S -- which entails S _regardless_ of
           | which sentence in X was used.
           | 
           | 8. Train an LLM on Xc and it's accuracy on judging Y entailed
           | by Xp is random.
           | 
           | 9. Since using Xp sentences cause it to fail, it does not
           | predict Y via S.
           | 
           | QED.
           | 
           | And we can say,
           | 
           | 1. Appearing to judge Y entailed-by X is possible via simple
           | sampling of (X, Y) in historical cases. 2. LLMs are just such
           | a sampling.
           | 
           | so,
           | 
           | 3. +Inference to the best explanation:
           | 
           | 4. LLMs sample historical cases rather than form
           | representations.
           | 
           | Incidentally, "sampling of historical cases" is already
           | something we knew -- so this entire argument is basically
           | unnecessary. And only necessary because PhDs have been turned
           | into start-up hype men.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | cypress66 wrote:
             | > 8. Train an LLM on Xc and it's accuracy on judging Y
             | entailed by Xp is random.
             | 
             | This is clearly where the "proof" falls apart. Even in
             | tasks where GPT4 struggles, it's accuracy will still be
             | better than random. The bar of "better than random" is so
             | low that even weak LLMs will be able to surpass it.
             | 
             | More so, you need to prove not just a single, but that no
             | task/domain exists for which LLMs satisfy 8.
             | 
             | What your proof says is basically "LLMs do not generalize
             | even the slightest for any task". And that's trivial to
             | disprove.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | I just need to be able to create a split in Xc,Xp _so
               | that_ Xp is random. I think that 's really quite easy.
               | 
               | If you could put ChatGPT in a loop, take some Xc prompts
               | and permute with some non-semantic phrases ("Alice
               | believes that... Xc ... what did Alice believe?") etc ---
               | until you find those cases.
               | 
               | I imagine we will discover quite a large number of such
               | non-semantic phrases which have this effect. Because the
               | tokens in those phrases will, joint with Xc, be
               | arbitrarily distributed in some historical data
               | (distributed to our preference when finding them).
               | 
               | This seems just kinda basically obvious, right?
               | Entailments are _discretely_ constrained by semantics,
               | and historical datasets can contain arbitrary mixtures of
               | random distributions of syntax.
               | 
               | NNs only model those distributions -- and not the
               | entailments -- which, at the very least, are extremely
               | discrete.
        
             | lostmsu wrote:
             | > Train an LLM on Xc and it's accuracy on judging Y
             | entailed by Xp is random.
             | 
             | Why? This is obviously wrong in general case. For that to
             | be true Xp and Xc has to have no statistical relationship
             | whatsoever, which statistically is virtually impossible.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Xp just have to be chosen such that the distribution
               | Xc,Xp is sufficiently small in the training data -- but
               | not that the tokens of Xp are themselves rare. So that an
               | agent competent with tokens in X, who can construct repr
               | of S, could do so with Xp.
               | 
               | Consider a reference in the paper above,
               | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2302.08399.pdf
               | 
               | Xc = > Here is a bag filled with popcorn. There is no
               | chocolate in the bag. Yet, the label on the bag says
               | "chocolate" and not "popcorn." Sam finds the bag. She had
               | never seen the bag before. She cannot see what is inside
               | the bag. She reads the label.
               | 
               | Produces, Y = She believes that the bag is full of
               | popcorn
               | 
               | Xp = > Here is a bag filled with popcorn. There is no
               | chocolate in the bag. The bag is made of transparent
               | plastic, so you can see what is inside. Yet, the label on
               | the bag says 'chocolate' and not 'popcorn.' Sam finds the
               | bag. She had never seen the bag before. Sam reads the
               | label.
               | 
               | Produces, Y = She believes that the bag is full of
               | chocolate
               | 
               | And so on, and so on...
        
               | lostmsu wrote:
               | > just have to be chosen such that the distribution Xc,Xp
               | is sufficiently small in the training data -- but not
               | that the tokens of Xp are themselves rare
               | 
               | Great idea. Now prove you can actually choose such a
               | distribution, lol.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | I think this is easy, just make Xp sentences of the kind
               | = "I define `randomchars()` to be this `term-in-Xc()`"
               | and swamp the dataset with Xc.
               | 
               | Everything here actually just follows _formally_ from
               | what NNs are: they 're just empirical function
               | approximations.
               | 
               | It will always be the case that they just model the
               | probabilistic structure of _the dataset_ and not the data
               | generating process.
               | 
               | Since, in language, there are discrete constraints which
               | make P(...) = 1 or P(...) = 0 --- you can trivially
               | produce datasets showing that it learns P(...) = mistake-
               | you-created-deliberately and not either 0,1.
               | 
               | As above, the LLM switches from 95% confidence
               | "chocolate" to 95% confidence "popcorn" with a trivial
               | non-semantic permutation of the prompt.
               | 
               | The obscene issue in all this is that _we know this
               | already_ -- empirical function approximation of
               | historical datasets _just produces associative
               | probabilistic models_ of those datasets.
        
               | lostmsu wrote:
               | > I think this is easy, just make Xp sentences of the
               | kind = "I define `randomchars()` to be this `term-in-
               | Xc()`" and
               | 
               | `randomchars()` does not match your own requirement `but
               | not that the tokens of Xp are themselves rare` and
               | therefore is unsuitable.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | good point --- so replace it with a `sample()` fn that
               | selects from an appropriate distribution over the data
        
               | lostmsu wrote:
               | Now you have a strong statistical dependency between Xc
               | and Xp the lack of which was required for your proof to
               | show that the algorithm is unable to learn Xp. BTW it was
               | already there because you already had `term-in-Xc()`.
        
           | parpfish wrote:
           | "I have a truly marvelous demonstration that LLMs don't have
           | the capacity to form thought which this margin is too narrow
           | to contain."
        
         | fiso64 wrote:
         | Don't try to ham-fist scientific sounding wording into your
         | (very unscientific) argument. This is not a disproof of
         | anything because you failed to define what it means to have the
         | ability to form rational thoughts. With a definition, you would
         | then wanna prove this for humans as a sanity check: Do we never
         | make stupid mistakes? Ok, we make fewer of those than LLMs.
         | Then what is the threshold for accuracy after which you
         | consider a system to be intelligent? Do all humans pass that
         | threshold, or do kids or people with a lower than average IQ
         | fail?
        
           | mdp2021 wrote:
           | > _humans_
           | 
           | There is intelligent thought and action, and there is
           | unintelligent thought and action. Intelligent is that "which
           | checked" ( _intus-legere_ ); the other, the """impulsive""",
           | is not.
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | This entire paper is written as a disproof of the
           | distributional hypothesis. If you want to understand why it's
           | a profoundly unhelpful pseudoscientific idea, this paper is a
           | good start.
           | 
           | The test for a capacity C in a system1 has nothing to do with
           | proxy measures of that capacity in system2.
           | 
           | The capacity for an oven to cook food may be measured by how
           | much smoke it lets of when burning -- but no amount of
           | "smoke" establishes that a dry ice machine can cook.
           | 
           | This type of "engineering thinking" is pseudoscience.
        
             | fiso64 wrote:
             | >The capacity for an oven to cook food may be measured by
             | how much smoke it lets of when burning -- but no amount of
             | "smoke" establishes that a dry ice machine can cook.
             | 
             | You seem to be talking past me, as nowhere did I claim that
             | LLMs are intelligent. That's the point - Unlike you I do
             | not claim to be able to prove or disprove this. I argue
             | that your comment is the one that is pseudoscientific
             | because you didn't provide (even a semblance of) a rigorous
             | definition of intelligence.
        
         | mirekrusin wrote:
         | "Trivial to show" as in it's trivial to show that addition on
         | uint8 doesn't work ie. 250+250?
        
         | TeMPOraL wrote:
         | > _There 's two hypotheses for how LLMs generate apparently
         | "thought-expressing" outputs: Hyp1 -- it's sampling from
         | similar text which is distributed so-as-to-express a thought by
         | some agent; Hyp2 -- it has the capacity to form that thought._
         | 
         | There's also another hypothesis: Hyp3 -- that Hyp1 and Hyp2
         | converge as the LLM is scaled up (more training data, more
         | dimensions in the latent space), and in the limit become
         | equivalent.
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | They're _indistinguishable_ via naive measurement (prompting)
           | if the LLM can sample from all possible data: there 's a very
           | large infinity of (Q, A, time) triples (ie., it's real-
           | valued).
           | 
           | But it cannot, since most of those are in the future.
        
       | sgt101 wrote:
       | I : hhmmppp a paper from Tenenbaum's group, let's read.
       | 
       | Paper : Hi! I am 94 pages long.
       | 
       | I : omg...
        
       | mercurialsolo wrote:
       | Humans come in all shapes and forms of sensory as well as
       | cognitive abilities. Our true ability to be human comes from
       | objectives (derived from biological and socially bound complex
       | systems) that drive us, feedback loops (ability to morph / affect
       | the goals) and continuous sensory capabilities.
       | 
       | Reasoning is just prediction with memory towards an objective.
       | 
       | Once large models have these perpetual operating sensory loops
       | with objective functions, the ability to distinguish model
       | powered intelligence and human like intelligence tends to drop.
        
       | dimatura wrote:
       | This is really interesting. The title is referencing the
       | "Language of Thought" hypothesis from early cognitive psychology,
       | that posited thought consisted of symbol manipulation akin to
       | computer programs. The same idea was behind was also what is
       | often referred to GOFAI. But the idea has largely fallen out of
       | fashion in both psychology and AI. There's a twist here in the
       | "probabilistic" part, and of course the surprising success of
       | LLMs makes this a more compelling idea than it would've been only
       | a couple of years ago. And there's also an acknowledgement of the
       | need for some kind of sensorimotor grounding as well. Pretty
       | cool!
        
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