[HN Gopher] Rivian embraces Tesla's charging standard for EVs
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Rivian embraces Tesla's charging standard for EVs
        
       Author : belltaco
       Score  : 318 points
       Date   : 2023-06-20 13:16 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (ev-edition.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (ev-edition.com)
        
       | bpodgursky wrote:
       | At this point, the rate at which automakers NACS support is a
       | good proxy for corporate malaise. Everyone sees the writing on
       | the wall for CCS, and if an automaker takes another couple months
       | to announce a migration it simply means the executive leadership
       | has no clue what they are doing with regards to EVs.
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | Is NACS superior to CCS in any way apart from install base? I
         | was under the impression NACS was inferior.
        
           | zodo123 wrote:
           | NACS is dramatically easier to maneuver into the port on the
           | car, and supports higher amperage. CSS requires an extra
           | internal flap on the car side that you have to open and close
           | manually, as well. It's a seriously underwhelming design.
        
           | simondotau wrote:
           | NACS is smaller and lighter than CCS1.
           | 
           | By combining DC and AC onto the same pins, it reduces the
           | part count and weight of bus bars / conductors which run from
           | a car's charging socket and the battery.
           | 
           | NACS is a better user experience for people and significantly
           | so for people with mobility issues, disabilities, etc.
           | 
           | The pre-eminent NACS fast charging network is markedly better
           | than the totality of all CCS1 charging networks.
        
           | xp84 wrote:
           | Suggest to watch the Technology Connections video. TL;DW:
           | it's fine, it has some advantages and no real disadvantages.
           | 
           | It's annoying that the US will once again be out of sync with
           | the rest of the world, that's the main drawback.
        
             | AlgorithmicTime wrote:
             | [dead]
        
             | bombela wrote:
             | With a bit of luck they will be able to name the connector
             | in inches, making it even more patriotic.
        
             | vel0city wrote:
             | Even with CCS1 the US was out of sync with "the rest of the
             | world", which uses a few different connectors.
             | 
             | And in the end it doesn't really matter. I'm not driving my
             | car across the ocean very often. Import processes already
             | tend to make taking a car from one continent to the other a
             | huge hassle, so to the vast majority of people its probably
             | easier to just sell the car in one place and buy another on
             | the other shore.
        
             | mardifoufs wrote:
             | The rest of the world does not mean Europe, no matter how
             | much euro nationalists think it does. (China and Japan for
             | example don't use the CCS plug).
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | NACS is superior to CCS1 (North America) in every way. Size,
           | install base, robustness and more.
           | 
           | CCS2 (Europe) has few (if any) of the drawbacks of CCS1.
        
           | rblatz wrote:
           | The form factor is significantly smaller, which means it's
           | easier to use. But more importantly the charging connector
           | has no moving parts. A common failure on CCS chargers is that
           | the locking pin breaks and the charger will no longer stay
           | firmly attached to the vehicle causing charging issues. On
           | the NACS adapter the locking pin is on the vehicle.
           | 
           | Charging infrastructure sees significantly more duty cycles
           | than an individual car so it makes sense to move the wear
           | part to the vehicle.
        
           | option wrote:
           | install base matter A LOT.
        
           | belval wrote:
           | I've used both and while from a technical standpoint CCS
           | might be superior (I have no idea), in practice NACS is
           | sleeker and feels less clunky.
           | 
           | Is that a good reason to adopt a standard that isn't open?
           | Probably not. Does the average customer cares and will it
           | have an impact on their day to day? Probably not.
           | 
           | EDIT: Seems like NACS is open after all so I don't really
           | understand why we would bother with CCS.
        
             | tensor wrote:
             | My understanding is that NACS is open:
             | https://www.tesla.com/blog/opening-north-american-
             | charging-s...
        
               | simondotau wrote:
               | It's open in every respect that matters, but pedants will
               | rightly point out that it hasn't been submitted to a
               | classic standards body (like SAE) to formalise in the way
               | that satisfies middle management and expensive
               | consultants.
        
             | shmoe wrote:
             | its called NACS because they opened it up.. didn't really
             | have much of a name before.
        
         | adrianmonk wrote:
         | And/or, since automakers evidently need some sort of agreement
         | with Tesla[1], if it takes a while, it could be due to
         | negotiations.
         | 
         | For example, if there are fees for using the connector (not
         | sure), an automaker might hold out to get the best price. There
         | may be terms related to the rates that will be paid for using
         | Tesla's charging stations.
         | 
         | There might be other issues. Maybe Tesla wants to qualify
         | automakers' designs so cars don't cause problems with their
         | charging network, or vice versa. The automaker might want
         | access to Tesla engineers or facilities for help with designing
         | or testing stuff.
         | 
         | Also, I don't know who's supplying the connectors (that will be
         | built into the cars), but if it's Tesla, the automaker may want
         | commitments about how many will be delivered by what date and
         | at what cost.
         | 
         | There could also be some sort of IT integration, like charging
         | location map data or maybe allowing customers a different way
         | to pay for charging (through the automaker's app or something).
         | 
         | ---
         | 
         | [1] Rivian's press release (https://www.businesswire.com/news/h
         | ome/20230620267452/en/Riv...) says they "signed an agreement
         | with Tesla".
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | > Maybe Tesla wants to qualify automakers' designs so cars
           | don't cause problems with their charging network, or vice
           | versa.
           | 
           | I shouldn't need Exxon and Shell and Phillips and Wawa and
           | Sheetz and whoever to qualify my car to get gas. I shouldn't
           | need Tesla and EA and whoever to qualify my car to get
           | electricity.
           | 
           | I don't see how anyone can see that and think its a good
           | thing.
        
             | adrianmonk wrote:
             | I don't like that a single private company is in charge of
             | this standard, but I think this sort of thing is pretty
             | common and necessary when two companies integrate
             | technologies.
             | 
             | For example, look at how USB C compatibility worked at
             | first. There was a standard, but there were still lots of
             | problems. In practice, implementers may not correctly
             | understand certain parts of the standard, may not grasp the
             | importance of doing something a specific way, or may try to
             | cut corners. Also, the standard may have omissions or
             | errors.
             | 
             | All of this should theoretically be fed back into a future
             | version of the standard, but with evolving technologies, it
             | takes time to get there.
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | Yeah but Google doesn't need to certify Anker or whoever
               | to make a charger and there's no on-going agreement to
               | make this charging brick work with my phone. Anker can't
               | just later decide to not work with Samsung devices and
               | suddenly not work. They all just speak USB-PD and it
               | works.
               | 
               | Tesla chargers shouldn't care if the car is a Tesla or
               | Rivian or GM or VW or whatever, if it plugs in and it
               | speaks CCS it should charge.
        
               | MrMetlHed wrote:
               | Hopefully government funding of any type will be withheld
               | from Tesla until this happens. I don't care about the
               | port as much as I care about anything with the right
               | connector should be able to charge anywhere. Having to
               | have the proper "agreement" between your car manufacturer
               | and the charging company seems ridiculous. Especially
               | with how mercurial some of the leaders of these companies
               | can be.
        
               | rangestransform wrote:
               | maybe google should've, i remember it was basically
               | "buyer beware" with cables. there was this benson
               | something guy who was testing cables and found that a
               | bunch of them would blow up your phone, until he
               | literally had his test equipment blown up by a bad cable.
               | compared to the usb-c situation, apple mfi is a godsend.
        
             | breischl wrote:
             | They all need to agree how it's done though. And gas cars
             | were the same - did you think the size and shape of the gas
             | pump nozzle were handed down from God or something?
             | Everyone had to agree on that at some point. Apparently
             | that was in 1930, or around 30 years after cars were
             | invented. https://www.cspdailynews.com/csp-
             | magazine/industry-views-all...
             | 
             | We are at that point right now. That is the process
             | happening in front of us. Eventually it will all be settled
             | enough that nobody will have to check that devices work
             | with each other, but we aren't there yet.
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | > did you think the size and shape of the gas pump nozzle
               | were handed down from God or something?
               | 
               | No, but you'd just have the fuel tank opening large
               | enough that you can put in any particular handle. And in
               | the end you didn't need Gulf saying this brand or that
               | brand could buy gas, but _not_ that brand. So while there
               | were a lot of different handles before U842, they usually
               | all actually worked with all the different brands and the
               | gas stations didn 't have to pre-approve the different
               | cars to get gas there.
               | 
               | I've had a few gas tools and gas tanks which didn't have
               | a gas port that was shaped for a U842 handle and yet I've
               | still managed to fuel them just fine. I didn't need to
               | get Shell's authorization every time I wanted to fuel a
               | Toro.
               | 
               | I'm kind of amazed people think its a good thing for
               | Shell to have the ability to say "no, that brand of car
               | isn't allowed to buy gas here anymore". Imagine if Ford
               | operated most of the pumps in the US and could just
               | decide Toyotas could no longer get gas at the majority of
               | pumps. Sound like a good idea?
               | 
               | Imagine if Tesla operated most of the DCFC dispensers and
               | could just decide Toyotas could no longer get gas at the
               | majority of dispensers? Oh wait, they already made that
               | decision. Despite the majority of Tesla dispensers
               | technically supporting CCS communications a Toyota
               | couldn't possibly charge on most of those dispensers even
               | if they had an adapter, because Toyota and Tesla don't
               | have an agreement.
        
         | zodo123 wrote:
         | I'd say that's the case for Stellantis (Dodge etc), but I
         | suspect the big European automakers will be slower to get
         | onboard due to the greater investment in CCS in the EU. It'll
         | require a bigger mental shift, as their leadership may not have
         | as strong a grasp on the North American situation, and will
         | probably have a greater bias toward "standards". (Yes I realize
         | we're talking about CCS1 vs CCS2, but it doesn't practically
         | matter).
        
           | pornel wrote:
           | Nah, Stellantis is just bad. Their EV tech is poor. They have
           | no dedicated EV platform, and they struggle to make profit on
           | EVs. They're not invested in CCS at all -- they're still
           | hoping EVs are a fad.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | Stellantis has dedicated EVs in Europe. That largely why
             | Stellantis was created in the first place. So FCA would not
             | be totally lost on EVs. The PSA group does have EVs.
             | 
             | But you are correct, they are not much invested in CCS in
             | the US. Unlike say Volkswagen.
        
               | pornel wrote:
               | By lack of a dedicated platform I mean that all of their
               | EVs share the platform with ICE/hybrid versions of
               | vehicles. They're either available with an engine of your
               | choice (like Peugeot and DS), or are only a new body on
               | an older ICE+EV shared platform (like Jeep Avenger is
               | built on Opel/Vauxhall Astra).
               | 
               | Contrast this with VW MEB, Hyundai/Kia eGMP, Porsche J1,
               | Mercedes EVA, etc. that were all ground-up EV skateboards
               | without ICE support.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | I thought PSA already had that. But maybe I was wrong.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | thepasswordis wrote:
       | This is great news both for EV users and Tesla investors.
       | 
       | Superchargers vs everything else isn't even a contest. Opening up
       | those chargers to more users is a Big Deal.
        
       | harshaw wrote:
       | Is there any technical reason you can't build an adapter from
       | NACS to CCS1? We have adapters for Tesla destination chargers
       | (NACS without fast charging??) to J1772 and they work just fine.
        
         | pornel wrote:
         | The wire protocol of classic Tesla supercharging is custom, so
         | it'd require electronic components, not just a physical
         | adapter. It may be technically hard, e.g. ChaDeMo and CCS speak
         | a different wire protocol, and there are no adapters for them.
         | 
         | However, when the charging station can use the CCS protocol,
         | it's only a matter a of physical adapter. Tesla's "Magic Dock"
         | is it.
        
         | bushbaba wrote:
         | No technical reason. But the adapter might not be "small"
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | I dunno, this adapter doesn't seem to be exceptionally large.
           | 
           | https://i.ytimg.com/vi/BdukzpR7_ao/maxresdefault.jpg
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | According to the press release, they will be building those
         | adapters and they will be available in 2024.
         | 
         | Pre ~2020 North American Tesla's can't speak the CCS protocol
         | and need a $200 upgrade to speak it. Presumably many of the
         | Superchargers don't either. I imagine the delay is to upgrade
         | the Superchargers to speak the CCS protocol so that a dumb
         | adapter may be used rather than having to build an expensive
         | smart adapter that can do protocol conversion.
        
       | bilsbie wrote:
       | Won't the chargers get overcrowded?
        
         | deelowe wrote:
         | Tesla sure hopes so.
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | Tesla adds about a million Tesla's to the road every year in
         | North America. Supporting a few hundred thousand non-Tesla's
         | will have less impact than adding a million Tesla's.
        
         | jsight wrote:
         | Tesla adds ~1 site per day in the US at the moment, and this
         | may even help them accelerate that. They also do a pretty good
         | job of fixing hotspots when they start to develop.
         | 
         | I don't expect it to be a big problem.
        
       | DueDilligence wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | pathartl wrote:
       | I'm not an EV user, so I need some clarification. Is NACS
       | actually a better connector? Or is it just more abundant at the
       | moment? Technology Connections did a deep dive on CCS and it
       | seems like it's a more flexible connector with a truly open
       | standard. The argument for NACS I've seen is that it's a little
       | sleeker (does this really matter all that much?) and it's already
       | on Tesla's supercharger network.
        
         | hindsightbias wrote:
         | See Sandy Munro's rant:
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VBCpAHvOpQ
        
         | satrday wrote:
         | Having used both, NACS is more compact, so both the port on the
         | car and the end of the cable are significantly smaller than
         | CCS. The cable itself is also lighter and more "usable" than
         | CCS. At least at the newest V3 superchargers, the NACS cable is
         | so much more flexible and easier to manage.
         | 
         | Munro Live took both connectors apart and did an overview:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmjofPpThWU
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | > the NACS cable is so much more flexible and easier to
           | manage.
           | 
           | Nothing stops CCS from using smaller cables. Tesla tends to
           | have cables which aren't rated for as long of lives with the
           | plans on replacing them more often. Most CCS dispenser
           | manufacturers chose beefier cables which were supposedly
           | rated for longer lives, but environmental factors and people
           | (ab)using the cables seems to lead to those cables not having
           | anywhere near their rated lives.
           | 
           | I've seen some 50kW CCS chargers with downright flimsy
           | cables, much smaller and thinner than most Tesla cables.
        
           | wlesieutre wrote:
           | v4 are the new Superchargers, but they're mostly being
           | installed in Europe where everything has been CCS for ages
           | and Tesla needs the longer cable to support cars with ports
           | in random corners.
           | 
           | Unless all these other manufacturers move their charging
           | ports around in addition to switching connectors, the short
           | cables on all the v3 Supercharger infrastructure is going to
           | be an issue here for a while. If your port is in the wrong
           | spot there's no way to reach without blocking two spaces.
        
             | sunflowerfly wrote:
             | Note that the CCS in Europe is different than the CCS in
             | the US. We were already on our own unique standard.
        
         | throw0101c wrote:
         | > _Technology Connections did a deep dive on CCS and it seems
         | like it 's a more flexible connector with a truly open
         | standard._
         | 
         | He did a video on this _Connextras_ channel about this news:
         | 
         | * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjny4u5THpU
         | 
         | While he thinks the Tesla physical connector is probably
         | better, the CCS communications standard is better (AIUI). So
         | once Telsa adopts that, it will probably be a good system.
         | 
         | Also: he's talking about CCS1, and not CCS2, which can do
         | things like handle three-phase power.
        
           | erinnh wrote:
           | Wait. CCS1 cant handle three-phase power?
           | 
           | I just read about it and no wonder its not that popular.
           | 
           | You can charge 7.4kw maximum in the US at home with CCS1.
           | 
           | In Europe you can charge up to 22kw without going DC.
        
             | KaiserPro wrote:
             | I think in the EU its CCS2 including the tesla super
             | charger. They have https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_C
             | harging_System#/medi... the left hand plug.
        
             | throw0101c wrote:
             | > _Wait. CCS1 cant handle three-phase power?_
             | 
             | CCS1 = SAE J1772 + DC.
             | 
             | J1772 has L1, L2/neutral, ground, control pins:
             | 
             | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAE_J1772
             | 
             | J1772 is popular where one-phase is popular in residences
             | (i.e., US, CA). CCS2 has L1, L2, L3, and neutral+ground:
             | 
             | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_2_connector
             | 
             | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAE_J3068
             | 
             | Technically there was nothing stopping the use of CCS2 in
             | the US, as the L2 and L3 pins would simply not be used at
             | people's homes. But one-phase J1772 was already around, and
             | it was decided to go with legacy compatibility.
             | 
             | I'm sure CCS2 exists in more commercial settings with heavy
             | duty EVs, e.g., Volvo Trucks:
             | 
             | * https://www.volvotrucks.us/news-and-stories/press-
             | releases/2...
             | 
             | Though high/er capacity (DC) plugs are being worked on:
             | 
             | * https://insideevs.com/news/535918/megawatt-charging-
             | system-e...
             | 
             | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megawatt_Charging_System
        
             | ianburrell wrote:
             | Level 2 can charge up to 19kW (240V at 80A) but 12kW (50A)
             | is more common.
             | 
             | NACS also can't do three-phase power. Three-phase power is
             | rare in the US, it is only found in commercial locations
             | that need it.
        
               | erinnh wrote:
               | How does the US get to 240v if you guys don't have
               | multiple phases at home?
               | 
               | Not an electrician, but here In Europe we get to 400v by
               | combining the three 240v phases we get.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | Tesla start charging much much faster. Tesla communication is
           | perfectly fine for Tesla to Tesla connection and Tesla has no
           | need to change that.
           | 
           | Teslas start charging within 5-8s, CCS often take 30s to
           | start charging.
           | 
           | Tesla will follow the standard for other cars, but I hope
           | they improve on the implementation.
        
         | shmoe wrote:
         | So much better. Not to mention, same connector for AC (home)
         | charging and DC fast charging (on the road at the super
         | chargers). Whereas now with CCS you have a little cover over
         | the fast charging pins you remove from your usual AC port to
         | plug in the DC fast charging combo. So much nicer.
        
         | zlsa wrote:
         | CCS1 (the variant of CCS used in the US; basically J1772 + HVDC
         | pins) has a lot of flaws that can't easily fixed in a
         | backwards-compatible way:
         | 
         | 1. It's gigantic, making it a lot harder to handle and plug in
         | [0] 2. CCS1 has a mechanical latch on the handle side (as
         | opposed to NACS, which puts an electronic latch in the vehicle
         | side). This results in a few problems: a. The CCS1 latch is is
         | exposed and easily broken, allowing the vehicle to begin
         | charging without being physically latched in (meaning it can be
         | unplugged without pressing the lever to unlatch, while still
         | carrying HVDC at hundreds of amps - there is protection against
         | this but it's not great practice to rely on the control/ground
         | pins being unplugged first, rather than making a latch that
         | isn't so easily circumvented) b. The latch is long and requires
         | a lot of force to unlatch (this may just be my bad experiences
         | speaking, but I've always needed to wiggle the connector a bit
         | to relieve the friction.)
         | 
         | Unrelated to the physical connector, Tesla's charging network
         | in the US is far larger and more reliable than everyone else's
         | CCS1 networks combined, and the only way to use the network is
         | NACS (at the moment, anyway. Magic Dock[1] is being added to
         | some superchargers and will most likely be rolled out wider in
         | the near future.)
         | 
         | 0: https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-
         | contents/image/upload/... 1:
         | https://electrek.co/2023/02/23/tesla-supercharger-magic-dock...
        
           | kotaKat wrote:
           | I have had a colleague describe to me the lingering smell of
           | ozone when he was able to unplug CCS1 while charging. The
           | charger and car dutifully stopped charging and the charger
           | nagged to Not Do That but it certainly left that ozone
           | wafting...
        
         | pseudosavant wrote:
         | If I compare it to USB-based connectors where USB-C never came
         | along.
         | 
         | NACS is like a Lightning plug. From a practical/pragmatic
         | perspective, it was clearly the best plug at the time it was
         | created. It solved real user problems.
         | 
         | CCS a micro-USB 3.0 plug. Maybe you've never seen one[0], but
         | they are a real thing. Let's take an awful plug (micro USB /
         | J1772) and clumsily add a few more wires on to it to make it
         | both more capable and even worse. It does what you need it to
         | do, but nobody has ever thought it was good at it.
         | 
         | [0]
         | https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c3/Connecto...
        
           | pathartl wrote:
           | IMO then let's standardize on what the replacement to
           | NACS/CCS should be. Personally, I don't see the big deal
           | behind a larger connector, especially if it's a bit more
           | future proof without requiring extremely clever engineering.
           | I mean we've dealt with huge gasoline/diesel pump handles for
           | nearly a century.
        
             | iknowstuff wrote:
             | NACS is perfectly fine. It's open now, unlike Lightning
        
         | gibolt wrote:
         | NACS can be plugged in one handed by a child. CCS1 needs
         | perfect alignment which can be a struggle for a large man using
         | 2 hands in optimal conditions.
         | 
         | NACS cables are lighter and thinner, which really matters when
         | it is cold and the cables harden.
         | 
         | This article shows some visual comparisons:
         | https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-opens-charging-connect...
        
         | conk wrote:
         | CCS current spec/design can deliver up to 350kW (although few
         | if any cars can take advantage of that today).
         | 
         | NACS claims it can provide up to 1MW (1000A @ 1000V). I think
         | it will be a while before we see cars able to charge anywhere
         | near this, but there is a trend right now of big EV pickups
         | with massive batteries. Higher power chargers means faster
         | charge times.
         | 
         | The only downside I see with NACS is you can't level 2 charge
         | using 3-phase power. This isn't really an issue in North
         | America because it's super rare to see 3 phase power at
         | someone's home. In most of Europe homes do have 3-phase power
         | and large loads like an EV are required to use it. This is one
         | reason why Tesla uses CCS2 in Europe. The NACS connect doesn't
         | have the space for a 3rd power pin.
        
           | sebazzz wrote:
           | Actually NACS doesn't claim anything regarding current, see
           | the spec[0]. It only claims 1000 volts, and the current is
           | left implementation-defined citing that 900A with a non-
           | liquid cooled inlet.
           | 
           | [0]: https://tesla-
           | cdn.thron.com/static/HXVNIC_North_American_Cha...
        
           | wlesieutre wrote:
           | CCS1 already doesn't support 3-phase power, so it's not like
           | switching from CCS1 to NACS in the US is losing anything
           | there.
           | 
           | It wouldn't work as-is for Europe because of that, but
           | they're so far into CCS2 adoption that they wouldn't consider
           | it regardless.
        
             | sebazzz wrote:
             | To clarify:
             | 
             | 3-phase power is irrelevant when it comes to CCS. The point
             | of the Combined Charging System is the "combined". It is
             | the signalling pins in the upper part of the Mennekes or
             | J1772 connector and the large DC connectors in the bottom
             | part.
             | 
             | For slow charging, 3-phase power is relevant (the IEC Type
             | 2 / Mennekes connector in this case).
        
               | jsight wrote:
               | He was saying that CCS1 in the US uses J1772 which does
               | not support 3-phase power.
        
           | Kirby64 wrote:
           | To note, the J1772 connector (the mainstream AC charging port
           | in most cars in the US) also does not have 3 phase support.
           | For commercial charging, the typical approach is to just use
           | 2 phases of a 3 phase commercial supply for AC charging. This
           | basically means commercial charging is limited to 208V (2
           | phases of 120V that are 120 deg out of phase).
           | 
           | So, there's no loss of function going from CCS in the US to
           | NACS.
        
           | jaclaz wrote:
           | >In most of Europe homes do have 3-phase power and large
           | loads like an EV are required to use it.
           | 
           | Yes and no, distribution is usually 3-phase so the 3 phases
           | do arrive to the building, but in a number of countries in
           | Europe inside the home only 1 phase is used and the amount of
           | available power (by contract) is a fraction of what the US
           | are used to (of course depending by country, but it is rare
           | that a house has a contract in excess of 3 or 6 kW).
           | 
           | Most detached homes (the small subset that have a garage)
           | won't likely be upgraded to more than 12 kW or so, still 1
           | phase, leaving not that much for charging.
           | 
           | Possibly larger buildings with common parking space may be
           | able to take advantage of the 3-phases distribution, still,
           | particularly in cities, the big problem (once the EV's will
           | be more common) will be the low voltage distribution lines
           | and the transformers/cabins from medium to low voltage.
           | 
           | EDIT: replaced "usually" with "in a number of countries in
           | Europe" did not want to generalize
        
             | Symbiote wrote:
             | Please don't generalize "Europe" when you aren't sure.
             | (Also goes for the GP.)
             | 
             | I have three-phase power in an 80m2 apartment, as that's
             | standard in Denmark.
             | 
             | I never saw three-phase power in a house or flat in
             | Britain, but part of the terrible plumbing is 7-9kW
             | electric showers. (Cheaper to install than a shower
             | connected to hot water, landlord doesn't care about the
             | price to run it.)
        
               | traceroute66 wrote:
               | > Please don't generalize "Europe" when you aren't sure.
               | (Also goes for the GP.) I have three-phase power in an
               | 80m2 apartment, as that's standard in Denmark.
               | 
               | Now now kids, play nicely. ;-)
               | 
               | I think the underlying question we should _really_ be
               | asking here is not willy-waving over whether you have a
               | three-phase supply or not, but rather how large your main
               | fuse is (there 's a euphemism for you !).
               | 
               | I'm not familiar with Denmark, but I suspect even your
               | fancy 80m2 apartment with its three-phase supply will
               | still only have a (relatively) tiny main fuse.
               | 
               | TL;DR you're still not going to have a supercharger at
               | home any time soon.
        
               | jaclaz wrote:
               | >TL;DR you're still not going to have a supercharger at
               | home any time soon.
               | 
               | Yep, and even if you have 3 phases and a large main fuse,
               | the issue remains when you sum all the power needed on a
               | same street in a city.
               | 
               | And I apologize if I seemed to improperly generalize.
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | I hope I am wrong on that, but this is exactly one of the
               | two largely unaddressed problems for a complete change to
               | an EV fleet in countries like Germany. 1) Do you have
               | enough power delivery available, especially with the push
               | to electric heat-pump based heating. That seems to be a
               | serious problem, I heard from some people that they are
               | not allowed to connect their heat-pumps, even in newly
               | constructed areas! Solvable, with political will, but I
               | don't see the will. 2) Where will people charge who park
               | on the streets. It seems there are technical solutions
               | (electrified curbstones), but again, political will to
               | change much infrastructure is required.
        
               | Symbiote wrote:
               | 40A on each phase, so 120A total -- at least as I
               | understand it [1]. I think that's plenty to charge a car,
               | but good luck parking on the 4th floor. The oven and hob
               | use all three phases. I think tumble driers used to, but
               | they're now so efficient in the EU it's no longer
               | worthwhile.
               | 
               | Several ordinary 3-phase sockets have been installed by
               | parking spaces in the basement, and are rented by
               | residents with EVs.
               | 
               | [1] The main breaker:
               | https://www.se.com/ww/en/product/A9Z61440/residual-
               | current-c...
        
               | KaiserPro wrote:
               | > TL;DR you're still not going to have a supercharger at
               | home any time soon.
               | 
               | true, but a three phase CCS will do 22kw. the EU has the
               | advantage that 240v needs half the current to get the
               | same power as the US
        
             | Y_Y wrote:
             | An electric kettle can draw about 3kW, I've only once seen
             | a home with a limit this absurdly low
        
               | legulere wrote:
               | Apparently there exists even 1.5 kW in Italy:
               | https://tariffe.segugio.it/guide-e-strumenti/domande-
               | frequen...
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | As an aside, Europe/UK electric kettles are much better
               | and faster and hotter than American ones, because they
               | are twice the voltage.
               | 
               | For real, compare them. The only ones in America that can
               | even compete are hard-wired commercial deals.
        
             | legulere wrote:
             | I would say in many places in Europe three phase power is
             | normal inside the home. In fact electric stoves including
             | induction usually rely on three phases.
             | 
             | I'm currently building a house in Germany and 34 kW was the
             | smallest option and 86 kW the biggest option. 11 kW
             | 3-phases is pretty much the standard for a Wallbox at your
             | home.
             | 
             | In Italy I know there's usually only very few power like 3
             | kW
        
           | saalweachter wrote:
           | I'm a little confused by fast charging standards, to be
           | honest.
           | 
           | 1MW is 20x the maximum draw of a standard house, and 800x the
           | average draw of a US house. The hydro plant down the road
           | generates 5MW.
           | 
           | It just sounds crazy to plan to pull that much power charging
           | a car at a time.
        
             | bloggie wrote:
             | It is indeed totally insane, but this is what is being
             | worked on, not necessairly for cars but trucks and semi
             | trucks for example that have much larger batteries than a
             | car. Already to achieve 250+ kW charging stations have to
             | have huge cables and watercooled connectors, here's one
             | such installation I saw some years ago
             | https://i.imgur.com/BpG4QAa.jpg and an example of a cooled
             | connector for 0.5 MW https://www.phoenixcontact.com/en-
             | ca/products/dc-charging-ca...
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | I assume the next jump in power will come from voltage. A
               | Model 3 pulls ~600A when charging at 250kW, because it's
               | relatively low voltage. If they alter the charging design
               | to accept 800 or 1000V we could see over half a MW
               | without a change in cable design. But I'd guess at this
               | point that would be moot because the cell charging rate
               | is the real limit anyway.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | All indication point to that the Cybertruck will be the
               | first new architecture with a 1000V architecture.
               | 
               | Many others have standardized on 800V, for example the
               | Koreans.
        
               | Kirby64 wrote:
               | Migrating to higher voltage doesn't do anything to charge
               | batteries faster. The only advantage is that you can
               | decrease the size of the cabling since current goes down.
               | On the other side though, you need to move all drive
               | circuitry, motors, etc, to handle higher voltage
               | architecture, which may end of costing more overall.
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | Not necessarily. Ford uses a 400V-based architecture, but
               | it can charge at 800V by connected two sections of the
               | battery in series.
        
               | bloggie wrote:
               | Yes Porsche has started with this, they have ~800 V
               | batteries, as you said batteries themselves are the
               | practical limit at the moment but both larger batteries
               | (as with trucks) and new battery technology can help to
               | lift that limit. There are enough engineering challenges
               | at 1000 A I don't think we will see higher currents than
               | that for a while!
        
             | Symbiote wrote:
             | For a comparison the other way, high speed trains in Europe
             | are around 10-16MW.
             | 
             | Typical railway locomotives used for freight trains in
             | Britain can draw a maximum of around 5MW.
             | 
             | Ordinary-speed electric trains (for commuters, regional
             | trains etc) with a limit of about 180km/h (110mph) draw
             | 1.5-2MW.
             | 
             | Presumably the full power is only needed when starting off
             | on a hill.
        
             | NickM wrote:
             | DC charging stations sometimes have batteries on site so
             | that they can charge up from the grid and then deliver
             | bursts of power from the batteries during charging.
             | Apparently this is often worth it to avoid the high demand
             | fees that utilities charge when you draw a lot of power at
             | once.
             | 
             | I assume this will become more ubiquitous as charging
             | speeds continue to increase.
             | 
             | (You're right that a megawatt is a high power draw in the
             | context of normal household electricity usage, but keep in
             | mind that if you can pump ten gallons of gas in a minute
             | you're effectively drawing the equivalent of something like
             | 20MW, so in the context of vehicle refueling it's not so
             | crazy.)
        
               | Alupis wrote:
               | The problem is obvious though, isn't it? Our current
               | infrastructure simply cannot handle a ton of EV's all
               | wanting to charge up all day long - as is done currently
               | with gas stations all over the country.
               | 
               | It'll take decades to bring our infrastructure up to
               | where it needs to be to support this - yet people act
               | like we're already there. Some states still struggle just
               | to keep the lights on during major parts of the year...
        
               | recursive wrote:
               | It's only the highest peaks of demand that cause problems
               | for the grid. EV charging, on average, is one of the
               | least time sensitive loads there is. People charge in the
               | middle of the night when its cheap.
        
               | wilg wrote:
               | The load is spread out in a completely different way than
               | gas, because 100% of gas cars get gas at a station, while
               | 80% of people with EVs slow-charge at home (or work or
               | whatever). Fast chargers are for road-trips only.
               | 
               | Obviously, if we're going to move to cleaner energy we
               | will need infrastructure investment. Worrying that it's
               | not already there makes no sense. The demand for improved
               | electrical infrastructure will be a forcing function.
               | There's no need to wait for it. But again, most charging
               | isn't fast charging and likely never will be.
               | 
               | (Charging for apartments and stuff still has a bit of a
               | way to go, so sometimes those people use fast chargers as
               | part of their regular routine, but the solution to that
               | is easy and underway: just put chargers in the apartment
               | parking lot and/or on the streets.)
        
               | saalweachter wrote:
               | > but keep in mind that if you can pump ten gallons of
               | gas in a minute you're effectively drawing the equivalent
               | of something like 20MW, so in the context of vehicle
               | refueling it's not so crazy
               | 
               | If 15 Teslas pass through a stretch of road per minute
               | with full 100kWh battery packs, you could also describe
               | that as 90MW of current, but it's also not really.
        
               | jorvi wrote:
               | I always forget just how energy dense petroleum and its
               | derivatives are..
        
               | athenot wrote:
               | This is true. Though the electric batteries do have the
               | advantage of having already paid the "thermodynamics
               | tax". Some of the energy in gas will go towards heat
               | losses; energy that cannot be converted to movement.
        
               | mensetmanusman wrote:
               | But that thermodynamic tax is a negative in very cold
               | climates where the electric vehicle will see a major
               | change in total travel distance compared to ICE.
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | And they are very efficient over a much larger rpm band.
               | But the real win is the energy recovery from regenerative
               | breaking.
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | Yes. One of the usual YT channels had this interesting
               | picture. Gas mileage is miles per gallon. Or in this
               | case, do it the European way: l/100km. The unit of that
               | is an area. Typically a rather small one, ca 0.1mm^2.
               | 
               | That's the area of a trench you have to dig along your
               | path if you want to supply your car from the trench
               | instead of your gas tank.
        
               | matthewfcarlson wrote:
               | When charging, the Tesla shows you a little miles per
               | hour figure (how many miles of range you gain per hour of
               | charging) and it can often reach 1000 or so on the super
               | chargers I use frequently. It's fun to calculate the
               | miles per hour of gas (around 12,000).
        
             | philg_jr wrote:
             | You'll never need that much power at home. Level 2 AC 240V
             | 30-50A is fine for overnight charging.
             | 
             | The way Tesla Supercharging works is by using a large bank
             | of batteries for the heavy bursts of power draw (>100kW)
             | during the initial periods of charging when the battery is
             | warm and at a low percent. The batteries at the station are
             | backfilled with less current from the grid in the
             | background during periods of low use. At least that is how
             | I understand it.
             | 
             | but yeah, maybe trucks with huge batteries may be able to
             | take advantage of it down the road.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | It could also be useful at homes to regulate power
               | (assuming the grid connections/solar/batteries were all
               | available), allowing you to charge faster when power is
               | cheap, and pull way back (or even backfeed) when power is
               | expensive.
               | 
               | But it's mainly to try to get EV fillups to be gas-
               | station like. If you can recharge a Tesla to 80% in 5
               | minutes, you've won.
        
               | vegardx wrote:
               | I don't know about the NA, but that is definitively not
               | the case for most superchargers (or any other brand of
               | fast chargers, for that matter) in Europe. Batteries are
               | expensive so this is only done in very special cases. I
               | know they've used battery banks at some of the electrical
               | ferries in Norway, simply because the cost of running new
               | high-voltage power lines was deemed more expensive and
               | the schedule of the ferries makes it very easy to model.
               | 
               | Power grids are quite large, so any fluctuations across
               | the grid is going to be minimal. They are quite good at
               | modeling these things, otherwise we'd have rolling
               | blackouts quite often. For homes it's the last mile
               | that's usually the biggest limiting factor.
               | 
               | But I agree with what you said, for /most/ people
               | anything more than 2kW (so 240V/10A) is more than enough
               | to charge up overnight. A perk with CCS2 is the support
               | for 3-phase power delivery. With very simple wiring and
               | some smart(-ish) electronics you can opportunistically
               | deliver around 11kW to a single car, or divide it with
               | other house appliances or other cars. It's fairly common
               | with 400V TN-system in some parts of Europe, which makes
               | the support of 3-phase in CCS2 very handy.
        
               | claar wrote:
               | Just a nit pick: 10A @ 240V isn't enough to charge my
               | Tesla Model Y overnight from empty - but 30A @ 240V
               | (7.2kW) is.
        
               | vegardx wrote:
               | Most people don't drive 500km per day, the average is
               | closer to 50 or so. So on average, you could easily top
               | of your battery pack on 240V/10A circuit. That would be
               | around 10kWh, which you'll do in 5 hours. Double the
               | average and you'll still be topped up next morning.
        
               | wilg wrote:
               | I don't think most NA superchargers have batteries
               | either, though some definitely do, but I believe going
               | forward they are likely to have "powerpacks" to support
               | pickup and semi truck charging.
        
             | dmoy wrote:
             | > It just sounds crazy to plan to pull that much power
             | charging a car at a time.
             | 
             | For comparison, a normal gas station pump is like about 4MW
             | of power (fuel).
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | Electric cars are almost 4X as efficient as a gas car, so
               | 1MW of electricy and 4MW of gasoline are roughly
               | equivalent in miles added per minute.
               | 
               | OTOH the only batteries that can absorb 1MW of
               | electricity are those in some Class 8 trucks, and Class 8
               | diesel trucks are usually filled with pumps a lot faster
               | than a standard gas station pump.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | saalweachter wrote:
               | It's a useful comparison for how long it takes to refuel
               | a vehicle, but "moving a liquid storing chemical
               | potential energy through a tube" and "move electricity
               | through a wire [and re-store it as electro-chemical
               | potential energy]" are two such radically different
               | activities that it glosses over a lot to equate the two.
        
         | sp332 wrote:
         | NACS doesn't have a standard for vehicle-to-home (or vehicle-
         | to-grid) charging. When they opened up the standard, Tesla said
         | that it was allowed, but they didn't specify any standard way
         | to do it. So it might happen, but there's potential for
         | incompatibilities between car manufacturers and charging
         | systems.
        
           | Robotbeat wrote:
           | Chademo supports bidirectional charging. But bidirectional
           | charging means you basically need a DC fast charger, and
           | those are like $10k. (Hard to find an actual number online
           | besides Alibaba... it's always an "inquire for price" email
           | quote button... which tells you it's gonna be like $10k.)
           | 
           | By far the easiest way to pull power from an EV is from the
           | 12V subsystem. The DC-DC converter for EVs usually is like
           | 2kW, so it's substantial power. ...although older Teslas make
           | it hard to access this much as I think they were worried
           | about people abusing free Supercharging... there's a 12 Amp
           | fuse for the cigarette lighter port and a 50 Amp fuse for the
           | jump posts accessible in the front, even 12V and 12A is
           | enough to power a fridge for weeks if you buffer it through
           | one of those "solar generator" things. That's what I did
           | during a recent power outage for my 2013 Model S. My 2013
           | Nissan Leaf has a 12V battery that's easier to access, and I
           | could pull about 1.2kW from that (have to keep the car on so
           | the high voltage battery is connected to the DC-DC converter,
           | keeping the 12V subsystem charged) using a couple inverters.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | Adopting NACS won't prevent Ford from supporting vehicle-to-
           | grid, since they build both the truck and the charger, and
           | the connector itself doesn't care what direction the
           | electrons are flowing.
           | 
           | But it would be really nice if it was standardized for
           | interoperability reasons.
        
           | cyberax wrote:
           | To do power-to-grid you simply need to connect to the car's
           | HVDC bus and tell the car "please don't panic if you see
           | current flowing out, not in".
           | 
           | NACS handles the HVDC connection just fine, and simply lacks
           | the second part. But it's just software, it can be
           | standardized later.
        
         | pornel wrote:
         | The physical shape of Tesla/NACS is way better: it's more
         | compact, and easier to plug in. The CCS connector OTOH is a
         | lazy retrofit of a design-by-committee plug.
         | 
         | The wire protocol of CCS is a bit overengineered, but it's a
         | standard, and it's a sunk cost (all cars, including current
         | Teslas, are already compatible with it). So physical NACS + CCS
         | protocol seems like the best of both.
         | 
         | It's also worth pointing out that the US uses CCS1, while
         | Europe standardized on a slightly improved CCS2. So the US is
         | alone in its (non)standard connector either way.
        
           | philistine wrote:
           | Fast-charging CCS is the Micro-USB 3.0 of car chargers.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USB_hardware#Connectors
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | Not all Tesla's can speak CCS. Older Teslas need a $400
           | retrofit to be able to use the Tesla CCS1 adapter.
           | https://shop.tesla.com/en_ca/product/ccs-combo-1-adapter
        
             | wlesieutre wrote:
             | Not much of a practical problem until some other charging
             | network builds out enough NACS chargers that a Tesla driver
             | would try using anything other than a Supercharger.
             | 
             | Looks like the cutoff for this is vehicles before May 1,
             | 2019.
        
               | tannedNerd wrote:
               | It's more like may 2020. I don't know anyone who got a
               | car delivered in 2019 ( mine included) that has support
               | for ccs
        
               | drewg123 wrote:
               | Once you have the retrofit, you can use existing CCS fast
               | charger with an adapter. So it is useful in that sense..
        
             | jsight wrote:
             | Yeah, only ~80% of Teslas in the US support it without
             | modification.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | laweijfmvo wrote:
             | I had the retrofit done on my 2018 MS. Have never once
             | successfully charged at a non-Tesla charger. I'm not sure
             | if it's me or the charging stations, which are somewhat
             | known to be less reliable in general than Tesla's.
        
               | cduzz wrote:
               | I got the $450 adapter for my 2016; There's one charger I
               | really wanted to use and otherwise I think it'll waste
               | space in my trunk. I still haven't used it at that
               | charger but I did test it at a CCS1 charger; it worked
               | though it was a terrible experience - the CCS1 plug is
               | silly huge, the payment processing was terrible, and it
               | charged pretty slowly.
               | 
               | I think they're retrofitting the existing supercharger
               | network to speak both "NACS" (really CCS1) and the OG
               | supercharger protocol. My car, with the retrofit, will be
               | able to (HA! good luck believing it'll actually work)
               | charge at an EA or other DC Fast charger setup, possibly.
               | Non-updated OG S/X cars will just get an error (probably
               | I will also, because these other DC Fast chargers simply
               | don't have skin in the game -- they're malicious
               | compliance).
               | 
               | L2 will be nice -- I'll not have to use the dongle to
               | charge at public chargers.
        
               | ajross wrote:
               | I bought the adapter off the gray market when it was only
               | being sold in Korea, and promptly ran to my local EA
               | station to try it out. Of the four plugs, only two
               | worked, and one of those was loose and would glitch out
               | if I didn't hold it against the car by hand.
               | 
               | I haven't charged via CCS since. It lives in the car as
               | an emergency backup, but frankly I wouldn't plan a road
               | trip stop at a CCS station if you paid me.
        
               | agloe_dreams wrote:
               | FWIIW that is the experience of using an EA station with
               | a car that _came_ with a CCS plug.
        
         | Fordec wrote:
         | My perception is that CCS2 is better egineering than NACS but
         | both are improvements over CCS1 so any alternate adoption is a
         | market improvement. Having the pure "best design" is _very_
         | rarely the deciding factor to market adoption.
        
           | cyberax wrote:
           | CCS2 is... ok. It's not better engineered than NACS, but it's
           | adequate.
           | 
           | In particular, it doesn't have the mechanical latch on top
           | and has slightly larger DC conductors.
        
         | option wrote:
         | yes. just look up photos (to scale) of different connectors on
         | the web. All others are UX abominations
        
         | snuxoll wrote:
         | AFAICT NACS (read, the "standard" and not Tesla's original
         | release) speaks the same protocol as CCS, it just combines the
         | AC and DC pins into, yes, a sleeker connector.
         | 
         | So no real "benefit", and it actually adds complexity into the
         | car itself. But theoretically one could also make a NACS -> CCS
         | adapter, so it wouldn't end up as a CHAdeMO situation.
         | 
         | EDIT: I forgot, the NACS connector is more or less self-
         | aligning if you get it in the right general orientation,
         | whereas CCS is pretty particular.
        
           | jsight wrote:
           | > EDIT: I forgot, the NACS connector is more or less self-
           | aligning if you get it in the right general orientation,
           | whereas CCS is pretty particular.
           | 
           | This last part is so useful that I'm stunned anyone designed
           | a connector without it.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | NACS and CCS currently use different protocols. Older Tesla's
           | require a retrofit to support CCS1.
           | (https://shop.tesla.com/en_ca/product/ccs-combo-1-adapter).
           | 
           | However, I suspect a big part of the reason why this flurry
           | of announcements is happening now is that Tesla is upgrading
           | their superchargers to be able to speak the CCS protocol over
           | NACS.
        
             | cyberax wrote:
             | > Older Tesla's require a retrofit to support CCS1.
             | 
             | This is needed because CCS1 requires special communication
             | circuitry for the control data. All Teslas can speak CCS
             | protocols.
             | 
             | The initial Supercharger support used different protocols.
             | They were simple CAN-based, without any metering or
             | billing. In fact, supercharging support was gated by a flag
             | on the car's side.
        
             | mavhc wrote:
             | NACS uses CCS protocols, see Page 11 of https://tesla-
             | cdn.thron.com/static/HXVNIC_North_American_Cha...
             | 
             | For DC charging, communication between the EV and EVSE
             | shall be power line communication over the control pilot
             | line as depicted in DIN 70121.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | Hmmm, we need a good name for the older Tesla plugs that
               | aren't NACS compliant. When I said "current NACS", that's
               | what I was referring to. I should have been more
               | explicit.
               | 
               | Tesla vehicles built before ~2020 do not and can not
               | speak CCS without a retrofit.
        
               | jsight wrote:
               | Arguably, those are !NACS at all. It wasn't called NACS
               | until the specs were delivered, along with the
               | requirement to support CCS signaling.
        
               | [deleted]
        
         | outlace wrote:
         | I don't know if there are any studies on this but the
         | perception amongst EV users that I'm aware of is that NACS is a
         | very reliable system (low rate of charging stall breakdowns)
         | compared to CCS chargers that seem to break down quite
         | frequently. However, it is unclear if this is due to the
         | technology difference between CCS and NACS or if it's just due
         | to the poor implementation of CCS charger infrastructure.
        
           | dagmx wrote:
           | This is anecdotal but:
           | 
           | 1. Whenever I've been on road trips, Tesla chargers outnumber
           | CCS chargers by at-least 5:1 and are in much more convenient
           | locations
           | 
           | 2. Tesla is much better about repairing their chargers.
           | You'll still find busted ones but because there are so many,
           | it's easy to go to the next stall. With CCS, there's often
           | not a next stall at all nearby.
           | 
           | If you watch YouTube review channels in Canada like The
           | Straight Pipes, the number one issue they have with CCS EVs
           | is that they can never find working charging stations.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | It's both. The latch on CCS1 is particularly prone to
           | breaking, but is responsible for only a small fraction of the
           | CCS1 downtime.
        
             | shmoe wrote:
             | Also as they age you have to hold the top up for the J1772
             | communication pins to initiate the charge and then you can
             | let go.
        
           | amluto wrote:
           | I think it's incentives. If Tesla chargers break and stay
           | broken, then Tesla owners get mad. (And Tesla chargers seem
           | to break or malfunction with some regularity -- they're not
           | indestructible. But they get fixed, and there are always more
           | than one or two chargers at a site.)
           | 
           | The third party chargers don't seem to act like they have a
           | reputation to uphold. Also, I'm not convinced they're even
           | really motivated to have people use their stations.
        
             | shmoe wrote:
             | Like you said, the law of numbers.. if a Tesla stall is out
             | theres usually 7 others to choose from. Any other network
             | may have one or no alternatives (they're all broken
             | sometimes).
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | Right, and Tesla is speedy to fix broken ones usually.
               | And an occasional bad charger isn't a huge deal (I talked
               | to an electrician who was servicing one of them). Gas
               | stations regularly have non-working pumps, and I suspect
               | those are more expensive to fix.
               | 
               | The Tesla approach is really another level for charging
               | compared to everyone else. And even the mobile chargers &
               | Level 2 destination chargers are better.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | > The third party chargers don't seem to act like they have
             | a reputation to uphold. Also, I'm not convinced they're
             | even really motivated to have people use their stations.
             | 
             | They do care but technology is unforgiving. Tesla is many
             | iterations into improving their station reliability, they
             | are vertically integrated and their station are very
             | simple. The production volume is far, far higher leading to
             | improve quality.
             | 
             | The competitors like EA, in their effort to scale simply
             | have 3-4 different providers put into the same box.
             | Different hardware, different software and so on. And then
             | also a NextGen version from all these providers.
             | 
             | Their stations are much more complex, with screens and so
             | on. So the failure rate is far higher and repair is much
             | more difficult.
             | 
             | I think you are underestimate the challenge of how
             | difficult it is to role out such an infrastructure and
             | maintain it specially when you are just a service provider,
             | not an actual engineering company. Tesla just made it look
             | easy and everybody expect that any other company could do
             | the same, but they can't.
        
         | GuB-42 wrote:
         | Most people consider NACS to be a better connector, there are
         | even CCS1 fans who admit that.
         | 
         | But in reality, they are all fine and it doesn't matter that
         | much. What really matters is that there is a standard, whatever
         | it is.
         | 
         | And it seems like NACS chargers will speak the CCS protocol, so
         | those with CCS cars will just need a passive adapter to charge
         | with NACS.
         | 
         | This is for North America, Europe is fine with CCS2, and NACS
         | doesn't intent to change that. And compatibility is not that
         | much of a problem since cars usually don't travel between
         | Europe and North America, plus, for these rare cases, there are
         | adapters.
        
         | apearson wrote:
         | I believe NACS can do everything CCS can do (same number of
         | pins) but in a smaller and easier to handle format. As an EV
         | users I much prefer the NACS connector over the CCS connector
         | especially in the winter when the cables are much stiffer.
        
         | IceHegel wrote:
         | It's not just the connector. It's the whole charging
         | experience. NACS + Supercharger network is 10x better than the
         | alternatives both in speed of charging and ease of use.
        
       | dagmx wrote:
       | I'm glad there finally seems to be a push to a better standard in
       | North America.
       | 
       | I'm really curious how this affects Teslas market share though
       | going forward.
       | 
       | Their supercharger network is why we continue with them despite
       | countless other issues. It's their biggest moat as far as I'm
       | concerned.
       | 
       | Now I have significantly more options, and my next car will not
       | be a Tesla. I'm sure I'm not alone in that.
       | 
       | Is the brand name of being effectively the gas station of EVs
       | worth it to them? I assume there'll be a surcharge , so is it
       | better for them to have the biggest slice of much smaller pies?
        
         | sangnoir wrote:
         | > I assume there'll be a surcharge , so is it better for them
         | to have the biggest slice of much smaller pies?
         | 
         | Tesla will be getting billions of Federal dollars[1] for their
         | network. IIRC, the law doesn't explicitly state that the
         | network has to be CCS, only that it has to be "interoperable".
         | If the government insists on CCS as a precondition, I predict
         | Tesla taking them to court (and likely winning). As an
         | outsider, it appears American manufacturers (NACS) are trying
         | to squeeze out foreign manufactures (CCS) from Federal dollars
         | for charging networks. I will change my mind if Hyundai, VW,
         | Mercedes or BMW sign up for NACS.
         | 
         | 1. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-says-tesla-
         | char...
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | > I'm sure I'm not alone in that.
         | 
         | Definitely not alone. I'm on my second Tesla, and from what I
         | can see of Tesla's plans for the future, I think it is likely I
         | will not buy another for my next car. I'm very happy that
         | everyone else is jumping on board with NACS.
        
         | huijzer wrote:
         | Out of curiosity, what do you dislike about your Tesla?
        
         | throwaway894345 wrote:
         | I mean, the range/$ seems to be a pretty good moat. Last I
         | checked, the only cars with a decent amount of range per dollar
         | were at the very low end (Chevy Bolt) and had very little range
         | (200 miles vs 300 miles for Tesla M3).
        
         | wilg wrote:
         | Market share isn't a good metric for a company that started out
         | with 100% market share and therefore has nowhere to go but
         | down. I think Tesla will continue to be successful selling cars
         | and grow the number of cars they sell at a high rate.
         | 
         | Also, it sounds like this move is a really good incentive from
         | a product perspective. If there really are a significant of
         | people who only chose Tesla because of Superchargers, then
         | they'll be forced to fix those problems. Though, personally, I
         | really like my Model Y and someone would have to come up with a
         | WAY superior car to get me to switch. I certainly wouldn't want
         | to go back to one of these legacy car company's cars with their
         | poor software, bad UX, and ugly and overwrought design
         | aesthetic. Also, a lot of their competition is still on paper.
         | Rivian is probably the nicest option for a non-Tesla EV right
         | now.
        
           | 015a wrote:
           | I legit believe that many people in these threads haven't
           | learned that the Model Y is the best selling vehicle in North
           | America during 2023-Q1 [1]. Not just best selling EV, or best
           | selling crossover; best selling _vehicle_. It outsold the
           | Corrola, at half the price.
           | 
           | This is not a situation of "oh Tesla will continue to do
           | well, they'll sell cars" or "what's their moat? they're
           | finished": They are #1. Dozens of competitors have hit the
           | market over the past five years. They are outselling all of
           | them, at substantially higher price points (fed tax credit
           | has something to do with it versus gas cars for Q1 here, but
           | it impacts all EVs reasonably equally).
           | 
           | If there's something on the horizon which will change that, I
           | need that explained to me because I'm not seeing it. That
           | Fords and GMs will also get supercharging? Anyone who says
           | "the supercharger network significantly influences purchases
           | toward Tesla" doesn't own an EV; armchair commentators. To
           | some small degree; sure. But the biggest influence, bar none,
           | is: "My friend has one." That's it. Few spend significant
           | time driving a Mach-E and think "everything about this
           | screams I need it". But that is a _not a-typical_ experience
           | for Tesla vehicles, because so much about it is so far ahead
           | of traditional cars, and even modern competing EVs.
           | 
           | So much about it is also pretty far behind, like quality
           | control. But that doesn't come through when you're driving a
           | friend's perfectly functional car. And it certainly hasn't
           | hurt Tesla up to this point.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/26/23738581/tesla-model-
           | y-ev...
        
             | cypress66 wrote:
             | You said best selling in NA, but the source says best
             | selling in the world.
             | 
             | In NA I believe it's F150 first and model Y second.
        
             | wilg wrote:
             | I agree, though the data is not exactly apples-to-apples
             | because Tesla sells fewer models (which is probably a good
             | thing).
        
           | Robotbeat wrote:
           | Tesla did not have 100% market share. Nissan Leaf came out
           | before the Model S. (And if you want to count the Roadster,
           | you should count the EV1, etc.)
           | 
           | But I think the point is that electric cars will take over
           | the whole market, and so if Tesla's US market share falls to
           | like 20-30% from the current 60% or whatever it is but that
           | market is 10-30 times larger, that's a huge win.
        
             | jandrese wrote:
             | Yes, in theory the GM's EV-1 beat them to market by a lot.
             | But in real terms Tesla had the EV market cornered for
             | years. The only real competition was the Leaf and Bolt, and
             | even those were low volume vehicles. It remains to be seen
             | if the legacy automakers can successfully ramp production
             | this year. They have made a lot of promises, but actual
             | deliveries are still lagging.
        
         | erikstarck wrote:
         | First of all, the mission of Tesla is to transition the world
         | to sustainable energy. If you believe them, that should be
         | enough.
         | 
         | But, second of all, this also makes business sense. Everyone
         | will have to use the Tesla app, where they can get targeted
         | offers and become a kind of "Tesla Light" customers. People
         | wonder why Tesla doesn't advertise. Well, with these deals, the
         | need for advertising is a lot less than without them. Also,
         | Tesla is essentially becoming a platform for EVs. How long
         | before some OEM license Tesla software?
         | 
         | And, remember that there are over 17000 superchargers in the US
         | alone and the deal with Ford and GM only allows access to 12000
         | of them in the US and Canada together. To get the full
         | Supercharger experience, you still need a Tesla.
        
           | 015a wrote:
           | Also worth noting: I don't hear people talking about this.
           | Tesla allows non-Teslas to access a very small portion of the
           | supercharger network already. They offer a two-tiered plan;
           | pay-as-you-go, or a $13/mo subscription which activates the
           | lower charging rates Teslas already get. I don't know if its
           | been announced yet how this applies to the deal Tesla has
           | signed with Ford (and GM/Rivian?); will it look more like how
           | EA/evGo operate, where there's a plan you sign up for to get
           | the more market-rate charging prices? Or are they doing away
           | with that?
        
           | sagarkamat wrote:
           | Not sure about other OEMs but at least Ford's CEO has
           | clarified Ford customers will be able to use the FordPass app
           | to use the tesla chargers.
        
           | NegativeK wrote:
           | > People wonder why Tesla doesn't advertise.
           | 
           | They don't advertise because their word of mouth and media
           | presence is incredibly strong. It's also the same reason I
           | basically had to strong arm the sales center into selling me
           | one of their cars -- the demand is incredibly high.
        
           | bobthepanda wrote:
           | Basically, the iTunes on Windows strategy.
        
             | vxNsr wrote:
             | Yup sounds like it. Tesla has always positioned themselves
             | as the apple of cars.
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | > Everyone will have to use the Tesla app, where they can get
           | targeted offers
           | 
           | Sounds like a nightmare. Want to go on a road trip? Either
           | subject yourself to target advertising on your phone or pay a
           | monthly fee. Hard pass!
           | 
           | I don't want to have to use an app _at all_ if I want to
           | charge. And yes, plug and charge is still using an app, you
           | need to use some kind of app somewhere to manage the payment.
           | I 'd much rather have the option to just choose what payment
           | I'd like to use before I start charging. Sure, optionally
           | support plug and charge as well, but at least give me the
           | option to _not_ need to go to an app to choose this this card
           | or that card and what not.
           | 
           | > remember that there are over 17000 superchargers in the US
           | alone and the deal with Ford and GM only allows access to
           | 12000 of them in the US and Canada together.
           | 
           | From what I understand, the ~5k chargers that aren't included
           | are the older ones which don't speak CCS and they're usually
           | the lower power ones. Those will probably be replaced over
           | the next few years. Meanwhile all their newer ones will work
           | with all the other compatible cars, so this percentage (~29%
           | currently) will shrink over time, probably pretty rapidly
           | given they're increasing the rate of new charger
           | installation.
           | 
           | And in the end, for a lot of people it probably won't even
           | actually matter. I've spent 2 years so far with a non-Tesla
           | EV and it hasn't been any kind of difficulty for me in the
           | slightest. Will it be nice to get access to another 1,500ish
           | charging locations with a basic adapter? Sure, there's a few
           | more charging locations on the road trip routes I take which
           | will be open to me. Will it actually impact me day to day?
           | Not in the slightest.
           | 
           | Oh no, there's a few thousand old chargers which charge at
           | slower speeds than the new ones a several hundred miles away
           | that my car can't charge at? Guess my car is worthless :'(
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | Not so sure I believe this strategy.
           | 
           | An app isn't going to make me buy a car or Tesla equipment.
           | Aesthetics, utility, and cost are my main purchasing decision
           | dimensions, and Tesla isn't winning those for me. I'm not
           | buying something shaped like a prune that can't haul gear and
           | equipment.
           | 
           | The ads on Uber and other delivery apps are irrelevant to my
           | daily life. Uber claims advertising has generating $500M in
           | ARR, but that's co-mingled with restaurants seeking placement
           | on Uber Eats. Ads for movies and McDonalds on Uber is
           | probably generating a small pittance of that sum.
           | 
           | Furthermore, lots of businesses will get into EV charging
           | when it takes off. Existing gas stations, restaurants, and
           | shopping will undoubtedly join when they believe the timing
           | is right.
           | 
           | FWIW, I'm dreading having to buy an EV. Gasoline works better
           | for my use cases. I don't have a place to charge at home, and
           | I don't want to wait for on-demand fill ups.
           | 
           | I think the push to EVs has been a function of worldwide
           | market and regulation, not necessarily consumer choice.
        
             | light_hue_1 wrote:
             | Couldn't disagree more. We really wanted an ev. Even bought
             | it when there were no incentives available. Nothing to do
             | with the global market or regulation.
             | 
             | It's a superior experience in every way. From the
             | performance, to the software, to the charging. I just plug
             | it in and never think about charging. On long drives it
             | needs a topup when our family does.
        
               | echelon wrote:
               | I live in place where the parking is super weird.
               | Historical building with historical grounds. We're
               | literally not allowed to resurface the parking because
               | it's all historic. Part of an old steam power plant
               | between cotton mill buildings from the 1800s.
               | 
               | How am I going to fuel my vehicle? We won't be able to
               | install power at limited distribution sites for everyone.
               | 300 residents with their own EVs is going to make shared
               | charging stations a nightmare, and everyone will fight. I
               | know this because we installed a few charging stations
               | and it has already became an issue for the six Teslas on
               | campus. Multiply that by 60.
               | 
               | It's easy to spend five minutes at a gas pump on my way
               | somewhere. No impact to my day. Having to schedule time
               | slots with neighbors is a nightmare.
               | 
               | I don't like any of this.
        
             | 015a wrote:
             | > An app isn't going to make me buy a car or Tesla
             | equipment. Aesthetics, utility, and cost are my main
             | purchasing decision dimensions
             | 
             | The interesting thing is: There's confirmation bias in
             | this, but every single person I've talked to who owns a
             | Tesla might have said this before owning one, but would now
             | _never_ say it afterward. It does things you never know you
             | needed, until you have it, and then you 're shopping for
             | cars afterward and your standards go up. Wait, the
             | infotainment still has a resistive touch-screen which runs
             | at 45fps? The maps won't automatically route me to nearby
             | chargers and give me a battery charge prediction for
             | arrival that learns from my driving habits?
             | 
             | Oh, here's an interesting one: Teslas have (configurable)
             | cabin overheat protection. Maybe some other brands have
             | this as well, I don't know, but: the cabin never gets above
             | 100F, if you have more-than 20% battery, and it doesn't
             | cause that much drain (maybe ~3%/day, maybe more in Arizona
             | or Texas). In other words; you _never_ have a hot car, and
             | you don 't fuddle with remote start / "turn the AC on 10
             | minutes before I leave" / whatever. Its just... never all
             | that hot; and you don't notice it until you get in a
             | traditional car that's been sitting in the parking lot all
             | day, sticky leather seats and its 120F inside.
             | 
             | All I can say is: Your mindset is probably more a
             | reflection of your environment than any more foundational
             | principals; and if you want to keep it that way, I'd
             | recommend that you don't spend any significant length of
             | time driving a Tesla.
        
             | jsight wrote:
             | > FWIW, I'm dreading having to buy an EV. Gasoline works
             | better for my use cases. I don't have a place to charge at
             | home, and I don't want to wait for on-demand fill ups.
             | 
             | Yeah, if you don't have home or workplace charging, EVs
             | really don't have significant advantages at the moment.
             | 
             | They tend to be pretty aggravating, tbh.
        
           | Marsymars wrote:
           | > Everyone will have to use the Tesla app, where they can get
           | targeted offers
           | 
           | This sounds like a dystopian nightmare. I have no interest in
           | charging an EV where using an app is a requirement.
        
           | bluSCALE4 wrote:
           | I think they don't use ads because they already get a ton of
           | money with green credits. I recall all the Tesla doomsayer a
           | few years back saying Tesla was going broke then Tesla sold
           | these credits to other companies for millions. If Tesla loses
           | these edges, which will happen if other car companies go 100%
           | green, then we'll see a more hate-able Tesla with ad-ware.
        
         | dahfizz wrote:
         | The long term future of Tesla is a battery manufacturer and a
         | charging network. Those are the two things they are good at.
         | The cars themselves are quickly being beaten out by the larger
         | players.
        
           | brianstorms wrote:
           | I sometimes suspect what's really going on with Tesla is that
           | they want to become the world's manufacturer of EVs of all
           | sorts, utility-scale energy storage systems, and software for
           | EVs including ADAS.
           | 
           | Musk has said it: "the factory is the product." I kinda
           | wonder if the real goal is, as the legacy OEMs quake, rattle,
           | flail around begging for government handouts, and start to
           | fail, Tesla knocks on their door and says "hey we can build
           | your cars for you, with your brand on them, using our
           | charging standard, our batteries, and our software. Just sign
           | here."
        
           | starik36 wrote:
           | My wife drives a Tesla and I drive newish rental cars on a
           | reasonably frequent basis. So I have a basis for comparison.
           | They are definitely not being beaten by larger players. At
           | least not at this stage.
           | 
           | Their software is top notch compared to the mish-mash of home
           | grown and Car Play on other vehicles. And the implementation
           | of AutoSteer (free cut down version of self driving) is far
           | superior to what I've seen in other cars.
           | 
           | I can see other automakers catching up in 2-3 years, but that
           | is not the case right now.
        
             | HWR_14 wrote:
             | I've never seen "software" (by which I assume you mean the
             | consumer facing stuff in the cabin) that made me want to
             | buy a car. Yes, I've seen Tesla's. It looks fine. So does a
             | radio with 6 buttons.
             | 
             | If I want anything, I have a cellphone. It's impossible to
             | compete with "put that UX through better
             | speakers/mic/screen"
        
               | MostlyStable wrote:
               | So much this. I was ecstatic to hear the articles a few
               | months ago saying that car manufacturers are going back
               | to buttons. I prefer my car to have essentially no
               | software. It needs to have a modestly sized screen and
               | then whatever is necessary to display my navigation app
               | and media app from my phone. Climate control and media
               | control should both be physical buttons.
               | 
               | I recently bought an EV and a secondary concern (as in,
               | not one of the primary concerns of size, range, charging
               | speed, and price), was the control interface. I went with
               | a model that has nearly all physical controls. Had the
               | choice between otherwise equivalent vehicles been
               | available, I'd have paid a non-trivial sum to get a
               | button interface option.
               | 
               | From my Tesla-owning friends, I hear that their software
               | is the "best", which seems to be like being the tallest
               | dwarf. I literally can't imagine a pure software/touch
               | interface being better than a physical button interface
               | for the most important driving controls.
        
             | pkulak wrote:
             | I've personally enjoyed auto steer on every car I've driven
             | not a Tesla. Some let you keep your hands off the wheel,
             | and none of them phantom break every couple hundred miles,
             | which is the ultimate deal breaker.
        
               | flutas wrote:
               | > I've personally enjoyed auto steer on every car I've
               | driven not a Tesla. Some let you keep your hands off the
               | wheel, and none of them phantom break every couple
               | hundred miles, which is the ultimate deal breaker.
               | 
               | I'm actually curious what systems you're using. I have
               | very limited experience, I have a M3 and a 21 Corolla
               | with Toyota's version.
               | 
               | My M3 has never once just given up on the lanes and
               | stopped steering, but it's a very common occurrence on
               | the Toyota. It just gives up and suddenly you're back to
               | controlling it with no real rhyme or reason to it that I
               | can find.
        
               | xeromal wrote:
               | When you say M3, do you mean the BMW M3 or Tesla Model 3?
        
               | pkulak wrote:
               | Oh, yeah, that doesn't bother me either. When the lanes
               | get really faint and I have to drive for a bit, that's
               | fine.
               | 
               | I guess it comes down to preference. I see it as
               | assistance. I want a helper who maybe can't do it all,
               | but never fucks up.
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | I've used Hyundai's adaptive cruse control on an older
               | model. It doesn't do anything with the steering wheel,
               | but it beeps when you leave the lane without using a turn
               | signal. As far as tracking the speed of the cars in front
               | of you and coming to a complete stop in traffic, it works
               | great. I've never had a phantom braking incident with
               | many thousands of miles driven on that mode. But that's
               | not auto-steering at all.
               | 
               | I've used Blue Cruise a good bit which supports hands-off
               | modes. This system works very well on highways hands-
               | free. It seems to want me to put my hands back on the
               | wheel when approaching the toll gantries and goes back to
               | hands-free a few seconds after the toll gantry, but
               | otherwise I've been able to go well over 100 miles at a
               | time without touching the wheel or brakes. I've never had
               | any kind of phantom braking situation or slow downs, it
               | works well in stop and go traffic, and has overall been a
               | great experience.
        
             | kanbara wrote:
             | i only ever want CarPlay. i want my own apps that i already
             | have, my own settings, integration into my calendar without
             | leaking data to some random third party.
             | 
             | on my smart tv i use apple tv, and never their own ui. i
             | trust apple for privacy and dont want to log in or
             | configure 20 apps on my car. i want my iPhone and its
             | features, period.
        
               | starik36 wrote:
               | CarPlay is fine. The disconnect is that for all car
               | related functionality, you have to break out from it to
               | go back to the car UI.
        
           | chaostheory wrote:
           | Tesla also bought solar city a while back
        
           | almost_usual wrote:
           | I thought most Tesla batteries were CATL, LG, and Panasonic.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | Tesla is working with those companies. But Tesla also has
             | its own batteries, their own battery IP, their own
             | manufacturing lines and so on. They even manufacture some
             | of their own manufacturing equipment.
             | 
             | The have factories in Germany and Canada building dedicated
             | battery manufacturing equipment.
             | 
             | They have their own battery factory in California, in Texas
             | and in Berlin. Model Y are already being sold with these
             | batteries in it.
             | 
             | And Tesla own batteries are very innovative specially in
             | terms of their manufacturing.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | > The cars themselves are quickly being beaten out by the
           | larger players
           | 
           | Based on what exactly?
           | 
           | Tesla cars are wildly popular in their segments. They have
           | elite efficiency, high margin, they lead in costumer loyalty
           | and costumer satisfaction ratings. Model Y is literally the
           | most sold car in the world.
           | 
           | What actual evidence are you basing these claims on?
           | 
           | Tesla is making a huge amount of money because of vertical
           | integration, why would they give that up to be a contract
           | manufacturer or sell batteries.
        
             | adventured wrote:
             | Keep in mind it was extremely common on HN to proclaim
             | Tesla was going to go bankrupt, that the Model S would
             | never be manufactured at any scale, that the Model 3 would
             | fail and would also never be manufactured at great scale.
             | 
             | Sure Tesla has plenty of flaws and always have, and yet
             | they remain ahead of the competition in what's going to be
             | a multi-trillion dollar market (EVs) segment.
             | 
             | Tesla's primary business problem is that they only have one
             | killer product, the Model 3 (meaning they're too easy to
             | cripple if sales fall out from under that one thing). They
             | massively screwed up on the truck, when they should have
             | just made a normal EV truck with some Tesla touches (Elon's
             | ego on Cybertruck cost them hundreds of billions of dollars
             | in sales over the next decade; it will go down as one of
             | the dumbest business mistakes in recorded history). The
             | truck should have been their key diversification,
             | especially in the huge US market for trucks. The truck
             | segment should have been mainstream and borderline boring,
             | yielding tens of billions of dollars in annual global
             | sales. Instead it's going to be a mocked niche product that
             | trails off rapidly in sales after the initial splash
             | (assuming they actually bring the Cybertruck to market).
             | 
             | But if Tesla knew what they were doing, they would have
             | bought a large chunk of Ford while the valuations were at
             | peak mismatch (or all of it, via their hyper overvalued
             | stock; de facto bribe the Ford family with a huge number to
             | take the acquisition offer), electrified Ford's truck
             | lineup in a long-term partnership, and yielded epic scale
             | profit from it for decades to come.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | > Tesla's primary business problem is that they only have
               | one killer product, the Model 3
               | 
               | Their killer product is the Model Y.
               | 
               | > meaning they're too easy to cripple if sales fall out
               | from under that one thing
               | 
               | Common car platforms like Civic or F150 stay pretty can
               | stay pretty consistant for decades.
               | 
               | And Tesla is actively working on other things.
               | 
               | Also remember, they make money from car service, that
               | will increase over the years. They also do grid storage
               | both large and small and that business is already big and
               | growing fast.
               | 
               | They have other products already developed, like the
               | Semi. And are currently building a factory for a 'Model
               | 2' in Mexico.
               | 
               | > They massively screwed up on the truck
               | 
               | I would disagree. People now just assert that Cybertruck
               | is bad. But the reason they went with that are still
               | valid and it still has a lot of preorders and a lot of
               | interest. In the long run that architecture could save
               | them lots of money and be very profitable.
               | 
               | > Elon's ego on Cybertruck cost them hundreds of billions
               | of dollars in sales
               | 
               | That's just an opinion. And if the really need to they
               | could just design a normal truck and put it on the
               | Cybertruck platform. They would cost a few billion but it
               | wouldn't be that bad.
               | 
               | > it will go down as one of the dumbest business mistakes
               | in recorded history
               | 
               | Or it will go down as one of the best. You clearly don't
               | like the vehicle, but its numbers in terms of interest,
               | people searching for it, preorders and so on are very
               | good.
               | 
               | Remember when nobody was gone follow threw on their Model
               | 3 preorders?
               | 
               | > But if Tesla knew what they were doing
               | 
               | Growing 50% over almost 20 decades and being one of the
               | most profitable car companies in the world while still
               | growing fast for the next couple years but they are
               | apparently idiots.
               | 
               | > they would have bought a large chunk of Ford while the
               | valuations were at peak mismatch
               | 
               | That's a terrible idea for so many reason. That like
               | Compaq buying DEC.
               | 
               | > electrified Ford's truck lineup in a long-term
               | partnership, and yielded epic scale profit from it for
               | decades to come.
               | 
               | They can have epic sales profit without Ford. They can
               | make something called the E150 and make it look like the
               | F150 and sell just as well without taking on all the
               | legacy.
               | 
               | I remember when everybody said 'Tesla should just let a
               | contract manufacture build their cars' and that just as
               | bad an idea.
        
               | jandrese wrote:
               | The Model Y seems to be their real killer product. The
               | Model 3 is a solid #2 for the business.
        
           | chris222 wrote:
           | And bots/autonomy.
        
           | techdmn wrote:
           | I'm happy to consider a non-Tesla (mostly because I'd really
           | prefer a more traditional gauge cluster and more physical
           | controls), but have struggled to find anything that beats the
           | price for performance of the Model 3 Performance. And yes, I
           | realize I'm a niche buyer.
        
             | dahfizz wrote:
             | You're right that the model 3 performance is still a
             | convincing product, but cars like the Mustang Mach-E and
             | BMW i4 are coming close.
             | 
             | A few years ago there was no good option besides tesla, but
             | in another couple years tesla will have fallen behind the
             | competition
        
               | vxNsr wrote:
               | BMW in my circles has the reputation as being a brand you
               | buy when you can afford to have a car in the shop most of
               | the time. Most American brands have reputation as just
               | being really poorly built and bad value props. Not sure
               | how either of those two options overcomes that view.
        
               | w0m wrote:
               | >a brand you buy when you can afford to have a car in the
               | shop most of the time
               | 
               | TBF, unless you are in a Niche market (off roading a land
               | rover) - it's generally _hard_ to buy a bad car today.
               | 
               | Is a Camry more reliable than a 3 series? Yes. But you're
               | talking 4 9s vs 5 under warranty; being near a _good_
               | dealership with good service is markedly more important
               | than brand reputation. If my Audi /BMW/Volvo are in the
               | shop for a week every other year and they easily give a
               | loaner to cover, does it really matter? At that point,
               | the cup holder being 5% better placed for convenient
               | access matters more.
        
               | vxNsr wrote:
               | Once you're out of warranty BMW tend to "implode" like
               | everything breaks at once. But even in warranty dealing
               | with going to the dealership and getting the repair is a
               | huge hassle vs just having a car that stays out of your
               | way.
               | 
               | Time is our most valuable asset and giving it up to
               | stupid things like waiting in dealership waiting rooms,
               | regardless of how much free coffee and popcorn they have
               | just isn't my idea of time well spent.
        
               | w0m wrote:
               | We had a first-year X1. Starter went after ~10,000 miles.
               | Dealership was garbage (hence my comments above), but
               | still towed us home and dropped off a loaner-car for the
               | ~week it took to fix. Annoying, wasted ~hour waiting for
               | toe truck to pick us up; but overall not a horrendous
               | experience (despite piling 3 adults and 2 dogs into toe
               | truck).
               | 
               | I had a 2010 Impreza, ~first month or two of ownership -
               | dashboard went nuts and i pulled over. Car got towed to
               | dealership - they found nothing wrong. Lost an evening
               | and no loaner car in the ~48h it took them to determine
               | 'nothing wrong'. Two 'new' cars - vastly better
               | experience with one than the other.
               | 
               | Anecdotal of course; but
               | 
               | > even in warranty dealing with going to the dealership
               | and getting the repair is a huge
               | 
               | You get that with _any_ car - my Tacoma was
               | indestructible and still had multiple recalls I had to
               | drop it off for.
               | 
               | You are correct if you're talking driving a car into the
               | ground though - I'd vastly rather have a 10 y/o v6 Taco
               | than an 8 y/o supercharged Dakota.
        
               | dahfizz wrote:
               | Tesla also has quite the reputation for cheaply built
               | cars that are outrageously expensive to repair
        
               | vxNsr wrote:
               | Outrageously expensive to repair sure (though which car
               | isn't these days, my corrolla got into a fender bender
               | and fixing the bumper was north of $1000), but I'm
               | talking about always in the shop due to shoddy
               | construction. Afaik that doesn't really apply to teslas.
        
               | jandrese wrote:
               | The flipside is that you hardly ever have to bring a
               | Tesla into the shop. In the end they are fairly cheap to
               | maintain.
               | 
               | https://www.automoblog.net/research/maintenance/tesla-
               | mainte...
        
               | w0m wrote:
               | Mach E looks like a Boat in comparison to me (I also
               | dislike the Y), doesn't feel like a direct competitor. I
               | should test drive regardless though.
        
               | Reason077 wrote:
               | > _" A few years ago there was no good option besides
               | tesla, but in another couple years tesla will have fallen
               | behind the competition"_
               | 
               | Much of the competition still struggles with software.
               | Sure you can use Apple CarPlay or whatever for the
               | basics, but as far as the full software suite goes, there
               | isn't yet much that comes close to Tesla's performance,
               | ease-of-use, UX, functionality, hardware integration,
               | automatic over-the-air updates, etc...
        
               | dahfizz wrote:
               | This is my point. Tesla is good at a small handful of
               | things, and making cars is not one of them.
               | 
               | They could sell batteries, charging infra, software, and
               | whatever else to the companies that are competent at
               | building (and fixing!!) cars. They aren't going to remain
               | competitive on the cars themselves
        
               | jdminhbg wrote:
               | I still cannot figure out what Car People mean when they
               | say Tesla is bad at making cars. What are you looking at
               | that normal people don't see? The one thing I agree about
               | is the yoke steering wheel, but that's on a high-end car
               | nobody seems to actually buy.
        
               | xeromal wrote:
               | Everyone loves to complain about panel gaps and that's
               | usually what drives them mad. lol. I've never cared for
               | panel gaps or minimalists interiors though.
        
               | jdminhbg wrote:
               | I have heard the phrase "panel gap" a million times and
               | don't think I have ever seen or (or I guess, noticed) one
               | on any car in my entire life.
        
               | xeromal wrote:
               | Same. Sadly I don't break out the calipers when I pick up
               | my new car. lol
        
               | NoGravitas wrote:
               | I'm not a Car Person (I hate cars, electric ones
               | included), but what I often hear said is that they feel
               | very cheaply made, in terms of fit and finish, both
               | interior and exterior. Panel gaps, water leaking into the
               | trunk, squeaks and rattles. Mostly not very serious (not
               | powertrain issues or anything), but nevertheless, not
               | something you want to see on a car you're paying as much
               | for as a Tesla.
        
               | labcomputer wrote:
               | I had heard the same things. And then I actually rented a
               | Model 3 for a week (twice actually). Aside from panel
               | gaps (the Trunk lid was slightly misaligned on one of the
               | cars I rented), I think the whole "Tesla is bad at cars"
               | is promulgated by people who have never actually sat in a
               | Tesla.
        
               | Reason077 wrote:
               | > _" Tesla is good at a small handful of things, and
               | making cars is not one of them."_
               | 
               | Tesla is manufacturing EVs at much greater volumes than
               | almost anyone else, and doing so very profitably. They
               | also score consistently high on customer satisfaction.
               | Seems like making cars is exactly what Tesla has become
               | very good at in recent years?
               | 
               | Sure, Tesla may not make the most luxurious, nor the
               | cheapest cars on the market. But right now they seem to
               | be very successfully hitting a sweet spot in the middle.
        
           | traceroute66 wrote:
           | > The long term future of Tesla is a battery manufacturer and
           | a charging network. Those are the two things they are good
           | at.
           | 
           | Agree 100%.
           | 
           | At present, Tesla really feels like a bit of a "Jack of all
           | trades, master of none" job.
           | 
           | I'm certainly no Elon fanboi, but I will happily state that
           | there are clearly a number of things they do well (certain
           | core components and the charging network).
           | 
           | But the cars themselves as a whole. They feel like what they
           | are. Cheaply built, but sold at a premium price.
           | 
           | Tesla would do well if they became the OEM's OEM.
           | 
           | You know, a bit like how Dell, HP and everyone else ship
           | servers with Seagate drives. Tesla should become the Seagate
           | and leave the outer shell bit to others.
        
             | minhazm wrote:
             | > At present, Tesla really feels like a bit of a "Jack of
             | all trades, master of none" job.
             | 
             | That's an odd take. Model Y is the best selling vehicle in
             | the world, and the second best selling vehicle in the US
             | after the Ford F-150. It outsells the Corolla, Camry, Rav4,
             | Civic, etc. Look at Mercedes, BMW and Audi sales, they've
             | been plummeting because everyone is buying a Tesla instead.
             | 
             | They're also the leading battery storage company and their
             | battery storage business has been growing like crazy.
             | 
             | > But the cars themselves as a whole. They feel like what
             | they are. Cheaply built, but sold at a premium price.
             | 
             | This has become such a meme that I think anyone who says it
             | has never driven a Tesla for more than a few hours. The
             | interior quality is not on par with Mercedes/BMW and maybe
             | there's a few panel gaps, but every other part of the car
             | is significantly better. The handling, infotainment system,
             | performance, efficiency, autopilot, maintenance, etc. A
             | $50k Model Y competes with $70-80k cars, but has the
             | interior of a $35k car. Most people are more than happy
             | with that trade off and that's why it sells so well.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | bbgm wrote:
               | I've had a Tesla (Model S) since early 2020 and once the
               | initial allure wore offI've missed driving a BMW and once
               | the i5 is here I'll be backing to driving BMW. The
               | supercharger network is by far the reason I've stuck with
               | the Tesla this long, but there's enough options now. The
               | build quality, the drive quality, service quality, all of
               | it is subpar. The Model 3 is a zippy car but the lack of
               | an instrument cluster is a deal breaker for me.
               | 
               | Tesla deserve all the credit for getting everyone else to
               | wake up. But they are so so at making a car I actually
               | want to drive.
        
               | HWR_14 wrote:
               | According to the 2022 numbers I was able to find, the
               | Model Y was number 9 in the US, behind the Tacoma, CR-7,
               | Sierra, Camry, Rav4, Ram, Silverado, F-150.
               | 
               | And the numbers on most non-Teslas seemed down because of
               | chip supply.
               | 
               | I don't think it's controversial to say that cars have
               | been supply constrained in the past few years.
        
               | minhazm wrote:
               | I guess I should have been specific that I'm referring to
               | the last quarter. Tesla's sales growth has been ~50% YoY
               | so comparing to 2022 numbers won't be so accurate going
               | forwards.
               | 
               | https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/26/23738581/tesla-model-
               | y-ev...
        
               | almost_usual wrote:
               | > They're also the leading battery storage company and
               | their battery storage business has been growing like
               | crazy.
               | 
               | Do you have a source on this? I assumed Tesla outsourced
               | most of their batteries from CATL, Panasonic, and LG.
               | 
               | https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/2023060514-catl-drops-
               | despi...
               | 
               | CATL seems to be ahead of everyone.
               | 
               | https://thedriven.io/2023/04/21/worlds-largest-battery-
               | maker...
        
               | minhazm wrote:
               | I wasn't referring to the cells, but the products
               | themselves. CATL produces cells, and yes Tesla uses cells
               | from many of those companies. But a battery storage
               | system is more than just the cells. I was specifically
               | referring to Tesla's PowerWall & PowerPack/Megapack
               | products, which has been growing at a fast rate. Just in
               | the last ~3 weeks there were two several hundred million
               | dollar battery storage projects announced that use Tesla
               | Megapack[1][2].
               | 
               | In terms of cell technology, it's really hard to say
               | whether those press releases announcing major break
               | throughs actually matter or not. Tesla is also producing
               | its own cells, but they'll happily buy whatever cells are
               | available since at this point they're constrained by
               | cells.
               | 
               | [1] https://electrek.co/2023/06/20/tesla-megapack-2xl-
               | power-new-... [2] https://electrek.co/2023/05/31/tesla-
               | power-massive-500-milli...
        
             | theFletch wrote:
             | > Cheaply built, but sold at a premium price.
             | 
             | How many successful brands have been built off that one
             | sentence alone?
        
           | adventured wrote:
           | That means they have no future of consequence. Charging
           | networks will be a mediocre low margin business and they'll
           | be hyper plentiful with little to no serious moat. It'll be
           | like owning gas pumps as a convenience store (yielding
           | pennies on the dollar; the money will be in generation there,
           | as it's in oil/gasoline in gas pumps). Batteries are and
           | always will be a horrific business with low margins (just ask
           | eg Panasonic and all the other players what their battery
           | businesses are worth, especially compared to what Tesla has
           | been making from automobiles).
        
           | MattRix wrote:
           | Not a big fan of Tesla myself, but surely if they figure out
           | self driving that'll make their cars relevant for the
           | forseeable future? On top of that they seem to be able to
           | make cars cheaper and more quickly than most of the
           | incumbents.
        
             | afavour wrote:
             | For sure. But that's an absolutely massive "if". Almost
             | guaranteed we'll be transitioning to EVs (I mean, we
             | already are at a small scale) before full self driving is
             | reliable.
        
             | FireBeyond wrote:
             | That 'if' is a big one.
             | 
             | Musk said, in 2015: "Self-piloting cars are a solved
             | problem." "I view it as a solved problem. We know exactly
             | what we need to do and we will be there in a few years."
             | 
             | Last year, though, he was backpedaling: "Our focus is on
             | solving the problem."
        
               | dehrmann wrote:
               | 2023, his focus is on Twitter.
        
               | rasz wrote:
               | and Twitter bot spam is a solved problem
        
             | traceroute66 wrote:
             | > they seem to be able to make cars cheaper and more
             | quickly than most of the incumbents
             | 
             | And that's exactly what the output of their factories feel
             | like. Cheap and quickly built. ;-)
             | 
             | More haste, less speed and all that ...
        
             | skrtskrt wrote:
             | I think the vast vast majority of people (non HN techies)
             | at this stage don't care that nearly as much about self
             | driving as they do about having an electric/Hybrid/PHEV car
             | that's just a great total package of a car - something that
             | the existing car manufacturers are far, far better at than
             | Tesla.
             | 
             | Even manufacturers like Chevy and Ford can run circles
             | around Tesla in terms of overall quality.
             | 
             | Anecdotally in LA which has tons of electric cars, people
             | that originally had interest in the status symbolism of
             | Tesla jumped back to Mercedes, BMW, and Volvo(Polestar) the
             | instant those manufacturers had viable electric options.
             | 
             | People are banging down Toyota's doors for the plugin
             | hybrids. Those people are not buying a Tesla in the
             | meantime. People are just waiting for their existing
             | trusted manufacturers to produce enough capacity.
        
               | HWR_14 wrote:
               | > Those people are not buying a Tesla in the meantime
               | 
               | I've noticed people signing leases on ICE cars to wait
               | out the delivery of their preferred EV solution.
        
               | skrtskrt wrote:
               | it would be amazing if more people realized that keeping
               | the car you have is still the most environmentally
               | friendly solution.
               | 
               | I'm going to keep my ICE car until it is unreasonably old
               | or impractical for me, which is probably at least 8 more
               | years.
               | 
               | At that point who knows what the electric car landscape
               | will look like, but certainly production will be
               | massively more ramped up. PHEVs will be the perfect car
               | for most people. It will do 99.9% of people's trips on
               | pure electric, and not have any compromises on long road
               | trips either.
        
               | HWR_14 wrote:
               | In fairness, the people I know doing this want a new car.
               | They are not trying to do the most environmentally
               | friendly thing.
               | 
               | But I believe in old ICE as opposed to new EV, on
               | environmental, economic and other grounds.
        
             | zdragnar wrote:
             | My driveway is windy and gravel. I live at the end of a
             | windy, gravel road with a steep drop off on one side. The
             | road it connects to is a back country road with NO lane
             | markings at all. Deer are prone to watching you approach,
             | then jumping out at the last minute. You need to slow down
             | when you first see them, not when they start moving.
             | 
             | I doubt FSD will get to the point I would ever fully trust
             | it outside of a freeway or city, and almost certainly never
             | for the 2-3 miles closest to my house.
             | 
             | Now, if they can get the cars cheap enough that I can
             | actually afford one, I might be interested. There are 4-6
             | trips I take a year in the 250-400 mile range, with zero
             | public transport available inbetween (rural-ish to rural-
             | ish areas), and not paying for the gas would be nice.
        
             | wsatb wrote:
             | The big players are just late to the game, but have been
             | making cars for decades. They will easily overtake Tesla on
             | number of EVs built as they transition.
             | 
             | Tesla isn't good at making cars. And every year my
             | confidence in full self driving goes down. They are good at
             | charging though and will print money doing that.
        
               | mywittyname wrote:
               | I wouldn't call the established players "late to the
               | game" vis-a-vis self-driving. They've been dumping plenty
               | into research and acquisition and are probably near
               | parity with Telsa.
               | 
               | The perception of the larger players as laggards comes
               | from the fact that they aren't as keen to lie consumers
               | and investors. Their leadership doesn't enjoy the same
               | privileges as Musk does.
        
               | jandrese wrote:
               | Sometimes I feel like people live in a different universe
               | than me. Do you know how many electric vehicles Tesla is
               | likely to deliver in 2023? 2 million.
               | 
               | Do you know how many GM is hoping to deliver? 150,000. Do
               | you know how many they have delivered YTD? 40,000. And
               | they're ahead of Ford, Rivian, and all other US EV
               | manufacturers. Only cheap Chinese only EV brands have a
               | similar volume.
               | 
               | "Easily overtaking" Tesla is not happening at this point.
               | It will be a real fight to ramp production up to Tesla
               | numbers. Did you know that the Tesla model Y was the best
               | selling car in the world thus far in 2023? Not EV, car.
               | It beat out the gas powered Toyota Corolla.
               | 
               | https://www.motor1.com/news/669135/tesla-model-y-worlds-
               | best...
        
               | Reason077 wrote:
               | The big incumbents (US, EU, Japanese) have high cost
               | bases and may struggle to compete on price with Tesla, as
               | well as emerging Chinese competition.
               | 
               | The real "secret sauce" behind Tesla right now is that
               | they've figured out how to produce affordable, desirable
               | EVs at scale while maintaining industry-leading margins.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Are you a time traveler from 2014?
               | 
               | Tesla is now closing in on run rates of 1.5-2 million.
               | They are on bath to overtake companies like BMW in total
               | sales. They are already far more profitable.
               | 
               | You seem to still think of Tesla as some small fish.
               | Tesla is the biggest BEV producer in the world by a large
               | margin. They produce more EV then all of the major German
               | producers put together and at better margins.
               | 
               | Volkswagen is the 2nd largest car company in the world
               | and they have been all in on EV for many years now, and
               | Tesla is highly competitive with them and actually makes
               | far higher profits.
               | 
               | A high level Toyota engineer said of the Model Y 'its a
               | piece of art' (and that was not even the newest
               | generation). Volkswagen CEO said that Tesla is beating
               | them on production efficiency.
               | 
               | If you want a reality check, go look at Toyota first EV
               | and compare it to Model Y. They are not even in the same
               | class, Tesla beats it on literally every metric.
               | 
               | If you still think large car companies can just easily
               | spin up millions of EV per year, you are deluding
               | yourself. You are even more optimistic then the car
               | companies own incredibly optimistic predictions. Ford and
               | GM have even stopped saying they will catch Tesla, its
               | now a race for Nr.2.
               | 
               | > Tesla isn't good at making cars.
               | 
               | Based on what? Your subjective insights?
               | 
               | Tesla cars have very high margin and are cheaper then
               | competitors in the same class. But they suck at building
               | cars?
               | 
               | Tesla cars have high costumer loyalty and high consumer
               | satisfaction in every survey? But they suck at making
               | cars?
               | 
               | Are you sure your not mixing up your personal feeling
               | with the real world.
               | 
               | > And every year my confidence in full self driving goes
               | down.
               | 
               | They don't need self driving to be highly profitable.
               | 
               | > They are good at charging though and will print money
               | doing that.
               | 
               | Actually charging doesn't make much money, its a terrible
               | business.
        
               | sunflowerfly wrote:
               | If you include PHEV, Tesla is second behind BYD. Even if
               | you look at EV only, the margin is not insurmountably
               | large. When the big automakers (Ford, GM) truly change
               | over they will dwarf Tesla.
               | 
               | https://www.ev-volumes.com
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | But I'm not including PHEV as those are a very different
               | supply chain.
               | 
               | > the margin is not insurmountably large
               | 
               | Mhh sorry what?
               | 
               | Look at how tiny Ford is. And you have to understand that
               | Ford was very, very late at doing battery partnership.
               | Their battery factories are very late. So they will not
               | scale very fast the next 3-5 years because of battery
               | constraints.
               | 
               | At the same time, GM on this diagram looks way larger
               | then it is in reality. The reason GM looks big is because
               | of one tiny China only micro-car that yields almost no
               | profit and will never be exported (and sales have gone
               | down this year already). Their actual Ultium sales are
               | barley existing.
               | 
               | You keep thinking these companies are so much bigger then
               | Tesla, they are not. Ford and GM have less then 2x the
               | revenue of Tesla. Tesla has faster growth and less debt
               | and less aging infrastructure (they have brand new
               | factories) and now legacy business. In terms of available
               | capital Tesla can actually deploy far more, and raise
               | money far more then Ford or GM.
               | 
               | Let me give you an example, Volkswagen. The ID.3 is
               | comparable to the Model 3 and it came out in 2019. It was
               | part of their MEB platform, something they had majority
               | invested years before that. In 2018 they said they would
               | invest 50 billion $ and have since increased that.
               | Clearly they matched Tesla in spending for the last 8
               | years or so. And yet look at the chart, they have half
               | the BEV sales of Tesla. And Volkswagen is consider very
               | successful in the EV world.
               | 
               | You vastly underestimate how hard it is to transition to
               | EV. Just because Ford, GM, Honda and so on are bigger
               | then Tesla, does not magically mean they can just start
               | mass producing EV. Go at actually look at how hard it is
               | to scale, even for large companies with huge ability to
               | invest.
               | 
               | > (Ford, GM) truly change
               | 
               | Have you looked at Ford and GM own predictions. Because
               | you seem to have a higher opinion on these companies then
               | they themselves have.
               | 
               | Ford just talked about how they would be losing money for
               | many more years and then only just match what Tesla is
               | doing just now.
               | 
               | Large companies often over promise what they can do. But
               | you actually go beyond that and claim that they under
               | promised and will do significantly better then they
               | themselves believe.
               | 
               | Of course GM just learn a hard lessen with their initial
               | battery factory, scaling is hard and that why Ultium had
               | almost no sales in Q1.
        
             | jandrese wrote:
             | Musk absolutely underestimated the difficulty of full self
             | driving. He's still doing it today. FSD is one of those
             | techs that makes for awesome demos but it has thousands of
             | edge cases that are hard to test for even with millions of
             | vehicle miles recorded in their big AI datacenter.
             | 
             | The tell for me is Hyperloop. That is an optimal
             | environment for FSD, a closed and contained track that has
             | only identical vehicles on it, and yet they still use a
             | human driver.
             | 
             | I only wonder how long it will take before Elon becomes
             | disillusioned, maybe it will never happen. Maybe they'll
             | pull a rabbit out of their hat and actually get it to work.
             | I'm still skeptical.
        
               | cypress66 wrote:
               | I agree with the difficulty of self driving.
               | 
               | However I wouldn't d pay attention to the hyperloop
               | thing. It would be trivial to "hardcode" a car to drive
               | at least the tunnel part. It's almost certainly that the
               | FSD team doesn't want to waste time with that.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | Maybe only optimists can do it
        
             | HWR_14 wrote:
             | I mean, that same sentence structure justifies a lottery
             | based retirement plan. You only have to get the numbers
             | once after all.
             | 
             | I haven't seen any evidence they are able to make cars more
             | cheaply and quickly than the incumbents.
        
               | MattRix wrote:
               | Just look up the margins on Tesla's cars vs EVs from
               | other manufacturers. For example, Tesla's net profit
               | margin in Q1 2023 was 13%, meanwhile Ford is hoping that
               | their electric vehicle division can get to 8% net profit
               | by 2026 (they currently lose money on them)
        
               | HWR_14 wrote:
               | Aren't those margins including amortization of capital
               | expenses? And don't those decrease as cars/year goes up?
        
         | Pet_Ant wrote:
         | > a better standard in North America
         | 
         | Is a global standard not better for everyone in the long run?
        
           | occamrazor wrote:
           | It doesn't really matter. Nobody brings their car overseas,
           | and the costs for having different chargers in Europe and NA
           | are negligible.
        
             | WaitWaitWha wrote:
             | Nobody?
             | 
             | I shipped my car several times back and forth between USA,
             | Europe, and Australia because the rental cost would have
             | been more than the shipping cost.
             | 
             | RoRo shipping my car cost round trip $1,600 last year
             | USA/Europe plus $300 insurance rider.
             | 
             | Three month rental, plus rental insurance versus rider on
             | my insurance? Rental would be approximately $3,100 car and
             | about another $1,800 for insurance.
             | 
             | I am nobody.
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | There's no registration headaches about the car not
               | meeting the differing safety/emissions regulations in the
               | different markets? It seems like its a massive hassle for
               | people to even bring kei cars from JP to US, I routinely
               | hear about how expensive it is to import cars across
               | markets.
        
           | jmgao wrote:
           | There isn't a global standard anyway, CCS1 (North America)
           | and CCS2 (Europe) are physically incompatible.
        
         | johndhi wrote:
         | Pretty sure Tesla's moat is that people think they are cool and
         | other EVs aren't.
        
           | 93po wrote:
           | Or that they have, by far, the best products at given prices.
        
             | jameshart wrote:
             | JD Power has Rivian, MINI and Kia scoring higher than any
             | Tesla model.[1]
             | 
             | Polestar, Ford VW, Audi and Hyundai are in the same
             | ballpark for ratings.
             | 
             | Several of those manufacturers have cars in the 30K range,
             | well below the prices Tesla is starting at.
             | 
             | That moat seems pretty small these days.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-
             | releases/2023-us-elec...
        
               | 93po wrote:
               | I believe these studies to be problematic for many
               | reasons. The first is because they measure owner
               | satisfaction, but they make zero effort to measure owner
               | expectations. Are the expectations for people buying
               | Teslas much higher than people who buy from other
               | manufacturers? Are they more sophisticated of a buyer and
               | think more deeply about their car?
               | 
               | The second issue is they also do things like compare the
               | Rivian R1T to the Model 3, which is half the retail price
               | and less than a _quarter_ of the manufacturing cost
               | (Rivian takes huge losses on their sales).
               | 
               | The final issue I'll mention is that JD Power makes
               | almost all of its money from traditional car
               | manufacturers. This is a huge conflict of interest and
               | there is zero legal accountability.
        
               | andruby wrote:
               | Do they have electric cars in the 30K range? What's the
               | battery range for their entry level cars?
               | 
               | (I only know Rivian's pricing by heart, which starts at
               | 75K)
        
               | jameshart wrote:
               | Most people don't need Tesla range. The MINI Cooper does
               | 114 miles for under $30K, and Hyundai, Kia and Ford all
               | offer 240 mile + ranges for under $40K.
               | 
               | Tesla Model 3 has 270 miles on the base model but you're
               | paying over $40k for that.
        
               | jandrese wrote:
               | JD Power is also a marketing arm for the auto industry.
               | Their numbers have been a joke since at least the 80s.
               | "#1 in initial quality" is such a laughable claim yet car
               | companies pay JD Power to award it every year.
        
               | lewisgodowski wrote:
               | For me, it's hard to find anyone else that matches Tesla
               | on price, range, and performance. It seems like with the
               | other EVs you get to pick two of those.
        
               | travisporter wrote:
               | I agree. I think Hyundai/Kia got close until Tesla
               | dropped their prices.
        
           | crazygringo wrote:
           | Just to clarify, in business terminology, that's not a moat.
           | 
           | A moat is something difficult/impossible for other
           | competitors to cross, something strategically defensive.
           | 
           | Being cool isn't a moat because anyone else can become cool.
           | In contrast, network effects are a classic example of a moat,
           | because no matter how much cooler/better your product is,
           | people won't switch until the majority of the rest of their
           | network switches. So nobody moves, hence a defensive moat.
        
             | cjblomqvist wrote:
             | That's not strictly correct. It's (very!) hard for someone
             | to replicate the brand of Apple or Coca-Cola. Moats are all
             | on a scale, and branding is one of the generally harder
             | ones to compete with.
        
         | mkozlows wrote:
         | The thing about how this is affects Tesla is "compared to
         | what?"
         | 
         | Compared to the historic status quo where there were no other
         | chargers, and Tesla had exclusive access to a large-ish
         | proprietary charging network, it looks like Tesla giving up
         | their advantage, and seems bad.
         | 
         | But the forward-looking status quo was going to be a gigantic
         | network of CCS chargers that makes Tesla's proprietary network
         | look small, with every other car maker using CCS. In that
         | world, Tesla would have had to switch their cars over to CCS
         | eventually and retrofit their existing chargers to CCS, and
         | people who bought Teslas with the proprietary plug have a
         | terrible UX of needing adapters everywhere.
         | 
         | Compared to _that_ status quo, this is a huge win for Tesla
         | (and one that back-foots every other carmaker, which -- if NACS
         | does take off -- need to do their own migration to a new
         | charging port and strand their existing customers with the
         | adapter life, making their earliest adopters angry and
         | frustrated). So yeah, this is a great move for Tesla, and GM
         | and Ford in enabling it are total idiots. (Rivian is just going
         | along with the semi-inevitable at this point.)
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | My friend who is not an EV driver got stuck with an EV rental
           | (Bolt) for a semi-rural trip and boy was that a ton of drama.
           | 
           | I've been thinking hard about an EV myself and now I'm
           | looking at PHEVs instead. I've gotten a crash course in EV
           | charging around here and it's not good. Level 2 chargers are
           | not for spontaneous trips and level 1 chargers are fucking
           | pointless. It estimated two and a half days to charge from
           | 40-80% at my house. My house was wired for level 2 charging
           | by the previous owners but the plug is 220 3 prong rather
           | than the NEMA 14-50 plug that seems to be de rigeur lately.
           | At least I could probably get an electrician to fix that
           | cheap.
           | 
           | If anything the non CCS chargers are made by idiots.
        
             | jliptzin wrote:
             | You just need a good EV. PHEV is like buying a typewriter
             | with a screen when everyone is already buying computers. I
             | have had a pure EV since 2019 and never had charging
             | problems like that and I drive a lot. I have the 14-50 at
             | home and it charges quickly, every morning I'm at 80%
             | charge. Spend $100 to get an electrician to fix that for
             | you.
        
               | jwagenet wrote:
               | I don't have either, but it seems to me a PHEV is a great
               | EV alternative for people who do a lot of local (city)
               | driving and also occasionally need a vehicle to do
               | weekend trips for camping, etc, where charging is not
               | available or an inconvenience.
        
               | ThatPlayer wrote:
               | My household has an EV, a home level 2 charger, and I
               | still wouldn't mind getting an PHEV. Not even for the
               | weekend trips, but just because it's cheaper than another
               | full EV, and I don't really drive enough to need the
               | range beyond the battery on a PHEV.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | The part of my brain that doesn't understand how
               | photovoltaics work really wants solar panels on EVs but
               | aside from keeping the cabin at ambient, which does in
               | fact have some mileage value, all they would really
               | achieve is keeping self discharge at bay.
               | 
               | If you parked it with a 50 mile range and came back a
               | week later, it might still have 50 miles of range.
        
               | unregistereddev wrote:
               | Different people have different driving patterns and
               | different needs.
               | 
               | Some parts of the country have less (and crappier)
               | charging infrastructure. Those parts of the country
               | coincide with areas where places are further apart and
               | you need more range. For some of us who happily live in
               | flyover states, a PHEV is an awesome in between.
               | 
               | I'm glad that an EV works out for you. Hopefully charging
               | times (and charging infrastructure) will improve so that
               | an EV works out for me as well. Until then, a PHEV works
               | well for me and is far more efficient than a pure ICE.
        
               | jliptzin wrote:
               | I lived in a rural location and now in suburbs and still
               | never had any issues, even 4 years ago when there were
               | far fewer chargers. Here is a map of the level 2+
               | chargers in the country:
               | 
               | https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#
               | /fi...
               | 
               | With 300 miles of range all you have to do is get to the
               | next charger and if you're willing to spend 5 minutes in
               | advance to plan your road trip it really doesn't add any
               | extra time if you stop to charge while eating, using the
               | restroom, etc. I like the extra cargo space not having an
               | internal combustion engine gives me.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Who has a real 300 mile range? That Bolt was going to get
               | lucky making over 180.
        
               | carcostthrow wrote:
               | > I lived in a rural location and now in suburbs and
               | still never had any issues, even 4 years ago when there
               | were far fewer chargers. Here is a map of the level 2+
               | chargers in the country:
               | 
               | As he said, different circumstances can shift the
               | solution point. What you have someone that doesn't have a
               | data plan on their phone, or doesn't carry a smartphone
               | and thus doesn't have access to a mapping app? Or the
               | charge point requires a smartphone app that I don't
               | connectivity to use with?
               | 
               | For me as well an EV is questionable. My gas burning SUV
               | is $1100 a year to insure, tax included. A Tesla Model 3
               | at the same level insurance would could me $6014 a year
               | before taxes. I don't drive enough to save $5000 in gas
               | and maintenance a year.
               | 
               | Then there's my garage. Long story short, the best it can
               | do right now is 120V 6A charge speed. To properly upgrade
               | my garage to support a full EV would cost an additional
               | $2500. Assuming if I also have to upgrade the electrical
               | mains from 100A to 200A, it's $15,000 to $25,000. And my
               | electricity costs 20 cents a kilowatt hour.
               | 
               | Does buying an EV it still make sense after all that if
               | you were in my circumstances?
        
               | revscat wrote:
               | > A Tesla Model 3 at the same level insurance would could
               | me $6014 a year before taxes.
               | 
               | I find that incredibly difficult to believe. According to
               | [1], the average cost to insure a Model 3 is $2500, which
               | tracks with what I am paying.
               | 
               | Who quoted you $6k/year?
               | 
               | [1] https://www.forbes.com/advisor/car-
               | insurance/vehicles/tesla/...
        
             | abc_lisper wrote:
             | If your commute is less than 100 miles, you have nothing to
             | worry, if you get a proper charger at home. Owned Tesla for
             | 3.5 years with 60 mile commute, it has been very nice.
        
               | WaitWaitWha wrote:
               | If this is true, what is EV replacing?
               | 
               | If my commute is less than 100 miles should I not be
               | using train, light rail, trolley, bus, or similar public
               | transport?
               | 
               | The historical use for me and my family and those who has
               | a car, for generation was "road trips", anything _over_
               | 100 miles.
        
               | dvdkon wrote:
               | Plenty of people drive a car for short trips and those in
               | rural areas will likely continue to do so. Also, consider
               | company vehicles for workers transporting heavy equipment
               | or delivery vehicles. All within the range of current EVs
               | for a full day. EVs won't fix car traffic issues in
               | cities, but public transit won't cover 100% of cases
               | effectively.
        
               | unethical_ban wrote:
               | Where do you live?
               | 
               | In my current city, taking a 10 mile bus ride would take
               | more than an hour, vs. 10 minutes in a car.
               | 
               | I do not live in New York.
        
               | frumper wrote:
               | For fun, I just looked up my route tomorrow using public
               | transportation.
               | 
               | I typically leave around 6:30am, drive 45 miles and
               | arrive at work about 7:15am.
               | 
               | Using Google and a host of websites to plan, I could walk
               | a mile to catch a regional bus, ride and arrive there 1
               | hour after I began. I can then walk to another bus
               | station, ride a local bus to a the main bus station,
               | connect to another bus that drops me off pretty much at
               | my workplace. I'd arrive 2.5 hours after I began this
               | journey. The earliest I can get to work by this route is
               | 9:30am. The regional bus system doesn't run any earlier.
               | 
               | Alternatively, if I take our non-ev, it's the same time,
               | but costs 5x as much as our Model Y. The ICE car cost
               | about the same as the EV.
        
             | mkozlows wrote:
             | The Atlantic had a piece about the "surprise EV rental": ht
             | tps://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/06/elect.
             | ..
             | 
             | What they say is dead on -- EVs are great, but getting an
             | EV in a rental situation that's not optimal for an EV
             | without notice and without planning for it is a terrible,
             | terrible situation.
             | 
             | Level 2 chargers are great in your garage, or in a place
             | you're going to park for a long time anyway (hotels, say),
             | but for quick top-offs on a road trip, yeah, not good.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Well the quarter of that article I could read seemed
               | interesting.
               | 
               | The 80/20 rule made them furious. Academically I knew
               | about it but I never had to experience it.
        
             | lettergram wrote:
             | I have a hybrid, basically get 30 miles on a charge. It's
             | frankly perfect!
             | 
             | To put it simply, there are two types of modes I drive -
             | short & in town or long (100+ mile round trip).
             | 
             | There is absolutely zero chance I'll be using an EV to
             | drive over 100 miles as there's a risk I get stuck for
             | hours or even need a tow.
             | 
             | For in town trips, 20-30 miles is more than fine and I
             | never even switch to gas. There's very little trips in
             | between.
             | 
             | Tesla holds a decent spot for suburban regions where you
             | drive 10-120 miles round trip. Arguably that's probably
             | fine for half of America. Particularly, if you have two
             | cars (one gas, one electric) as most households with EVs
             | do.
        
             | throwaway894345 wrote:
             | > Level 2 chargers are not for spontaneous trips
             | 
             | What do you mean by this? Do you mean "public L2 chargers"
             | or private in-home L2 chargers? If public, I agree--it
             | would take 4 hours to charge your car on a road trip, but
             | if private then just keep your car charged to 80-90%.
             | 
             | > My house was wired for level 2 charging by the previous
             | owners but the plug is 220 3 prong rather than the NEMA
             | 14-50 plug that seems to be de rigeur lately. At least I
             | could probably get an electrician to fix that cheap.
             | 
             | There are multiple NEMA 3-prong 220V standards, at least
             | one of which is 50V and at least Tesla sells charger
             | adapters for all of them. If you're buying an EV though you
             | may as well shell out the extra $500 + labor and have an
             | electrician install the dedicated charger (so you can keep
             | your portable charger in the car for traveling).
             | 
             | > If anything the non CCS chargers are made by idiots.
             | 
             | I'm not sure what this means either. The Tesla charger
             | isn't CCS and I haven't had any problems with it. Also,
             | plenty of CCS chargers suck (at least one of the CCS
             | standards is exclusively L2).
        
             | jp191919 wrote:
             | A Bolt is about the worst EV someone could use for a road
             | trip.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Oh it was terrible even by proxy. It would drop estimated
               | range at about 2 miles per mile. Took all day to get
               | between two metropolitan areas. Spent several hours at a
               | level 2 to ensure they didn't get stuck in the woods with
               | crap cell coverage.
        
               | evanelias wrote:
               | Eh, it's not great but it's totally doable as long as it
               | isn't winter. My understanding is that a Nissan Leaf is
               | much much worse than a Bolt for road trips...
               | 
               | I just did an NYC to Cleveland trip in my Bolt EUV, along
               | a route with only a few DC charging locations, and never
               | once had to wait for an available charger -- even on
               | Memorial Day.
               | 
               | That said, if you need to use the heater, then yeah it's
               | not viable for a road trip. No heat pump, so major
               | battery drain.
               | 
               | The other key to a Bolt road trip is to avoid speeding
               | too much. There's an absolutely tremendous difference in
               | range when going 65 mph vs 80 mph.
        
               | outworlder wrote:
               | > My understanding is that a Nissan Leaf is much much
               | worse than a Bolt for road trips...
               | 
               | As a Nissan Leaf owner, yes. Because of CHADeMO (that is
               | going to be a big problem in a few years, as existing
               | stations fail and don't get replaced) and because of the
               | passively cooled battery pack. I can do one DC fast
               | charging no problem without much change in battery temps
               | (CA weather). 2 or 3 in the same day? Might get toasty.
               | 
               | That said, all EVs have issues during winter(Tesla
               | included, their EPA ranges are way overstated). It's just
               | that, for a Tesla, it's easier to find a supercharger.
               | 
               | The consumption difference due to speed affects all cars,
               | no matter their drivetrain. For ICE, that burns a hole in
               | your pocket as it causes you to stop at gas stations more
               | often.
        
               | evanelias wrote:
               | re: winter range, my understanding is that EVs with heat
               | pumps (including Teslas) tend to have much more efficient
               | heaters than ones without heat pumps (e.g. Bolts).
               | 
               | re: speed and consumption, for sure. But because the
               | Bolt's DC fast charging rate maxes out at a fairly lame
               | 50-55 kW, and speeding => reduced range => more charging
               | time required, so on a long Bolt road trip there's
               | diminishing returns from speeding a ton. I suppose it
               | depends a lot on terrain and climate though, since e.g.
               | speeding can be more beneficial if it means you're
               | running the heater for less time.
        
             | snapetom wrote:
             | Dumb you're getting downvoted, because the charging
             | infrastructure is bad. I was "EV curious" and recently
             | rented a Kia EV with a 250 mile range for a trip to
             | Northern California. I had two purposes - drive to/from San
             | Francisco and Sacramento. Drive all around the Sacramento
             | metro area. I figured California, probably having the best
             | EV infrastructure, would make the experience a good one. I
             | was wrong.
             | 
             | 1) Half the stations we attempted to charge at were broken
             | for various reasons. Sometimes it was the payment system.
             | Sometimes it was charging as a whole. sometimes the CCS
             | side was broken, sometimes the Tesla side was broken.
             | Sometimes the screen was broken. The point is these are
             | not-simple machines with massive amounts of electricity
             | going through them. Many things break.
             | 
             | 1/1 Davis 2/4 Davis 1/2 El Dorado Hills 0/3 Palo Alto 1/1
             | Palo Alto
             | 
             | 2) Vendors. All terrible. All except one municipal L2
             | required you to download their app. Thankfully all allowed
             | guest charging, but if I was evil, I'd require users to
             | register. Good chance they're desperate, and good chance
             | you're the only charger in the area.
             | 
             | The experience didn't put me off on EVs, and I'm still
             | considering getting one because I can charge at home.
             | Relying on infrastructure, though, is a terrible idea.
        
             | asdgaisofgnoi wrote:
             | For the large majority of driving PHEVs are superior. They
             | offer identical efficiency for short (<50 mile) trips at a
             | large cost savings. They can handle longish trips where a
             | BEV would wind up dead on the side of the road. Even in the
             | rare circumstances where BEVs are better the advantages are
             | slight.
        
               | acomjean wrote:
               | Hybrids are great.
               | 
               | There are downsides: extra weight of a gas engine, more
               | mechanical complexity, and weird maintenance, especially
               | if its an gas engine your not using very often. The
               | person I know who has one went a couple months without
               | using much gas. Does gas go bad?
        
               | Marsymars wrote:
               | It does, but smart cars can use pretty simple math to
               | work out how old your gas is and burn gas as needed to
               | keep the age of your gas low enough.
        
               | delecti wrote:
               | That's a great point to raise, because yes, gas does go
               | bad. Without added stabilizer, it lasts 3-6 months.
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | As for your plug, that's cheap and easy to replace
             | (literally the homeowner can do it in most jurisdictions,
             | be safe) - the question is the size of the breaker/wire
             | routed to the plug.
             | 
             | If your breaker is fifty amps, then changing for NEMA 14-50
             | shouldn't be more than $100-200 even if you hire a master
             | electrician.
             | 
             | If the breaker is NOT fifty amps, then you have to
             | carefully check that the wire is the sized correctly all
             | the way from the box to the outlet (it can LOOK right
             | coming out of the breaker box, and look right going into
             | the outlet box, but somewhere hidden in the walls it
             | changes to an incorrect size).
        
           | JoshTko wrote:
           | Assuming Ford and GM are not inept and their adoption of NACS
           | is driven by necessity rather than choice. This implies a
           | significant lead by Tesla in charging technology. Essentially
           | like Android adopting lightning connectors. Huge, long term
           | positive impact to Tesla as market leader.
        
           | marsokod wrote:
           | > In that world, Tesla would have had to switch their cars
           | over to CCS eventually and retrofit their existing chargers
           | to CCS, and people who bought Teslas with the proprietary
           | plug have a terrible UX of needing adapters everywhere.
           | 
           | It should be noted that in any case Tesla will have to
           | support CCS, though in its CCS2 version. It is the de facto
           | standard in Europe and is in the process of making their
           | chargers in Europe fully compatible since the M3 comes with
           | CCS2 by default here. And it is unlikely to change any time
           | soon, CHAdeMO is dying here and all the other networks are
           | using CCS2 (which seems to be much better than CCS1 if I
           | trust the complaints about CCS1 I read on HN).
        
             | vidarh wrote:
             | In fact Type 2 or Combo2 (CCS2) is an EU requirement for
             | the charging stations so while you can offer alternatives,
             | all new charging stations must offer of those two.
             | 
             | Directive 2014/94/EU:
             | 
             | https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
             | content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CEL...
        
               | marsokod wrote:
               | Yes. CCS2 has not technically won yet as being the
               | default port for all EVs in Europe, but any other option
               | would have to have significant advantages over CCS2 to
               | win, features that a potential CCS3 version would not be
               | able to support.
        
           | Lramseyer wrote:
           | I think this alternate future of a gigantic CCS network is a
           | really long ways off. Have you ever tried to use non-Tesla DC
           | fast charging? It's a mess! There aren't a lot of stalls, one
           | of them is usually broken, and the payment processing is a
           | mess! I thought people were exaggerating until I experienced
           | it first hand. While I think they will eventually get their
           | act together, I don't think it's unreasonable to claim that
           | the terrible DC fast charging experience is a huge deterrent
           | to non-tesla EV buyers right now. This ultimately creates a
           | chicken and egg problem that results in such slow progress in
           | the EV charging world (outside of Tesla.) It's why Tesla's US
           | EV market share is around 60%.
           | 
           | I actually think this is great for Tesla in other ways in the
           | nearer term. With other automakers switching to NACS, this
           | removes a huge concern for would be non-Tesla EV buyers. Now
           | you may think this would erode Tesla's market share, but I
           | think it will convert far more ICE customers than Tesla
           | customers. The net effect is a faster EV adoption, faster
           | cultural acceptance of EVs, and more people considering Tesla
           | in the near-mid term.
           | 
           | I fail to see how this negatively affects Ford, GM, and
           | Rivian. They can retrofit the charge port relatively cheaply
           | or deal with an adapter. Yes, it affects resale value of
           | early customers. But that's how it goes with new technology,
           | and buyers are naive to think otherwise. Besides, when
           | compared to their ICE counterparts, they're probably still
           | coming out ahead on maintenance.
        
           | agloe_dreams wrote:
           | Also one other detail: There's a hell of a lot more money in
           | the car 'fuel' industry than the car making business. R&D
           | costs are way lower, you don't need that many employees, and
           | you can always charge these third party automakers more.
           | Tesla is going to make bank off these adopters.
        
             | seanmcdirmid wrote:
             | Most EVs charge at home most of the time, so there isn't
             | that much money in the "fuel" industry, they are mostly
             | needed for long distance trips (and so crowd up on holiday
             | weekends), not daily driving.
        
               | jdminhbg wrote:
               | Sure, although Tesla is in this market as well, with
               | solar panels, battery packs, and wall chargers.
        
               | logifail wrote:
               | > Most EVs charge at home most of the time
               | 
               | Umm, there's a _significant_ chunk of the world 's
               | population who will likely never be able to charge at
               | home, because they live in apartments and park on-street.
               | 
               | "EV owners who live in apartment buildings and park on
               | the street will rely heavily on public chargers--in 2021,
               | 42 percent of European EV owners living in cities had no
               | access to home charging points."
               | 
               | https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-
               | assembly/...
        
               | two_handfuls wrote:
               | True but these people mostly don't go to superchargers,
               | they go to slower & cheaper chargers near their apartment
               | or work.
        
               | chris222 wrote:
               | Yah this is where people get stuck in their way of
               | thinking about current technology limitations.
               | 
               | Really fast <10m charge times are only about 5 years away
               | which means people will use DC fast chargers like gas
               | stations.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | I wouldn't make investment decisions on that kind of
               | prediction. Slower (cheaper) chargers will take much of
               | the load, and unless outlawed, are going to heavily bite
               | into fuel station margins. The best they can do is charge
               | more for DC fast charging when it is needed (during
               | holiday weekends).
        
               | 6DM wrote:
               | Also, surprisingly there are HoA's that are fighting
               | people that want to install an outlet for their car e.g.
               | town home owners without a garage.
        
               | wing-_-nuts wrote:
               | I offered to pay for a charger to be installed in my
               | spot, and the hoa board flat out refused. Granted,
               | they're _old_ , and are probably still upset about the
               | switch to unleaded gasoline...
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | Keep badgering them each and every month/year until they
               | give in.
               | 
               | Some states are moving to make it illegal for HOAs to
               | prohibit it the way the FCC did with satellite dishes.
        
               | earthboundkid wrote:
               | In the US, most apartment dwellers park in a garage,
               | which can and will be retrofitted with chargers. Street
               | parking is the major challenge. In Park Slope Brooklyn, I
               | often see a lone cable coming out of a brownstone out to
               | a Tesla on the street. :-)
        
               | thatguy0900 wrote:
               | What is your stats for most apartment people Park in a
               | garage? Where I live garages cost a hefty amount extra
               | and the apartment complex doesn't even have enough for
               | more than a quarter of the residents anyway
        
               | earthboundkid wrote:
               | Most of the US has aggressive parking minimums.
        
               | thatguy0900 wrote:
               | We have plenty of outside parking. I've just never seen
               | majority garage parking
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | LA is notorious for their parking minimums (two car spots
               | for a two bedroom apartment), Seattle in contrast lacks
               | parking minimums at all.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-958-january-2-2
               | 017...
               | 
               | It's lower for renters (who are more likely in an
               | apartment), but it's still overall decently high.
               | 
               | Every apartment I've lived in had a garage or carport
               | that could easily have had a charger installed (and
               | probably does, by now).
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | On street parking is very much allowed only in some
               | countries, the biggest one being the USA, but much of
               | western Europe it is disallowed (or at least, you pay for
               | it by the hour). Many countries require proof of parking
               | spot before they will let you even buy a car.
               | 
               | Even in that case, it isn't hard for cities to put out L2
               | charging pylons at each on-street parking space. They can
               | just combine it with street light infrastructure or
               | whatever (they would also be able to monetize street
               | parking at that point, which is inevitable anyways).
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | At least in Germany, most city areas where people live
               | are "Anwohnerparken", so people who live on the street
               | are allowed to park on the street, nobody else.
        
               | Marsymars wrote:
               | > Even in that case, it isn't hard for cities to put out
               | L2 charging pylons at each on-street parking space.
               | 
               | How does this work for physical logistics? e.g. I'm a
               | two-car household that can't practically reduce to a
               | single car, with a driveway that only fits one car. (That
               | my partner uses.) I street park in front of my house, and
               | there's street/sidewalk/lawn. The only place I can think
               | of to put a charging station is in my lawn with some kind
               | of arch over the sidewalk to reach my car. Also becomes
               | problematic as street parking spots aren't reserved. (I
               | could potentially remove a tree from my front yard and
               | pave over it to provide another parking space, but that's
               | not a very appealing solution.)
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Are your electric lines all buried? I guess if they are
               | that would make it much more difficult. Otherwise, you
               | have poles or something to keep the lines in the air.
               | 
               | I'm just amazed America has so much free parking still.
               | People buy houses, even if they have garages, they use
               | the garage as storage and park their car on the street.
               | Having lived in other countries where that simply can't
               | happen, its like this country practically gives away
               | parking spaces for free.
        
               | Marsymars wrote:
               | Yes, utilities are all buried. Electrical doesn't even
               | come from the street side of the house, it comes in from
               | a utility corridor behind my house.
               | 
               | Also have a garage, but isn't practical to park in it for
               | various reasons, some more fixable than others. (It's set
               | up as a home gym which I view as essential for my health,
               | it's single car and parking in the driveway would block
               | in the garage, it doesn't have a floor drain or
               | appropriate slope for draining which is fairly important
               | for winter snowmelt, and it doesn't have an automatic
               | door opener.)
        
               | tormeh wrote:
               | Depends. In Japan you're only allowed to buy a car if you
               | have a free parking space on your property. A police
               | office will come by your home to verify that the number
               | of parking spots on your property is enough to house all
               | the cars you plan on having. So in this case you would
               | just have to deal with only having one car, or pave over
               | the lawn to fit another parking spot.
        
               | Wheen wrote:
               | > will rely heavily on public chargers
               | 
               | Public chargers =/= DC fast chargers (like Tesla
               | superchargers).
               | 
               | I've already seen level 2 chargers that drop down from
               | light posts in my city. Roll those out to every light
               | post near apartment buildings and throw in some curb-side
               | stalls if you need more capacity. Most people won't need
               | to charge every night with 200/300mi+ range, so you won't
               | need a 1:1 mapping of chargers to cars. This way, people
               | charge passively overnight at stations that are cheaper
               | to build than DC fast chargers.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | logifail wrote:
               | > Roll those out to every light post near apartment
               | buildings and throw in some curb-side stalls if you need
               | more capacity
               | 
               | Don't forget your local electrical grid will likely need
               | a significant upgrade too. An LED streetlamp probably
               | draws a couple of hundred watts, tops.
        
               | axus wrote:
               | Apparently LED can use less than 100W, and before LEDs
               | streetlights would use 250-400W . The really bright
               | sodium ones were 1000W, but those probably weren't over
               | your neighborhood sidewalk.
               | 
               | https://pacificlamp.com/street-light.asp
        
               | com2kid wrote:
               | Local electrical grids are already being upgraded due to
               | the increasing need for AC thanks to climate change.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | The latest rounds of gas convenience stores have gotten
             | more square footage than earlier generations. I suspect
             | they are anticipating indoor seating for charging customers
             | at some point.
             | 
             | I've also started seeing joint ventures where it's a proper
             | coffee stand or in one case I can think of an A&W root
             | beer.
             | 
             | Gas stations tend to be physically separated from pastimes
             | (what Burger King owner wants diesel fumes in their
             | store?), and someone at least is hedging their bets that
             | won't always be the case. I don't know if they'll see the
             | fruits but their kids absolutely will.
        
               | RajT88 wrote:
               | I've been seeing some of these as well in recent years.
               | 
               | The most memorable one was down in Louisville, where
               | there was a gas station/bait shop/bar. The bartender sold
               | me some whole-hog pork sausage at $2/lb. which he kept in
               | a duffel bag in the ice box. Totally on the up-and-up.
               | 
               | Another is a well-known BBQ joint / convenience store out
               | by Kansas City (I forget the name).
               | 
               | Most common, I think, is having a Subway inside the
               | convenience store. I've seen Burger Kings as well.
        
               | meepmorp wrote:
               | > The bartender sold me some whole-hog pork sausage at
               | $2/lb. which he kept in a duffel bag in the ice box.
               | Totally on the up-and-up.
               | 
               | The secret ingredient is trichinosis!
        
               | RajT88 wrote:
               | It was delicious. I fried the hell out of it and used it
               | for home-made Dan Dan Mian.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Nah, the nitrates take care of that.
        
               | local_crmdgeon wrote:
               | Joe's Kansas City BBQ.
        
               | mikestew wrote:
               | In poking around with PlugShare in the Seattle area, I'm
               | seeing Arco gas/convenience stores with chargers. "EV
               | Connect" is what is marked on the map. One is near the
               | office that I don't go to anymore, but next time I'm that
               | way to pick up hardware, I'll check it out. IIRC, there's
               | no real room to build out the lot, but maybe the store
               | could expand.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | Gas station stores are moving in on grocery stores.
               | 
               | There's a huge war brewing that most people don't even
               | know about, but once grocery stores started imitating
               | Costco and offering gas, the convenience stores have been
               | firing back by undercutting grocery stores on staples.
               | 
               | Around here they'll even undercut Walmart on dairy and
               | select produce.
        
               | WaitWaitWha wrote:
               | That is a very astute observation! Thank you. I have
               | wondered why more and more convenience stores are getting
               | into not just quick, pick-up snacks, but full blown fast-
               | food style sit down environment.
               | 
               | Recently when I drove around in the USA, I saw Sheetz,
               | Wawa, Royal Farms, Rutter's, and High's. These are
               | substantially larger with lots of amenities compared to
               | the standard gas stations. Nothing compared to Buc-ee's,
               | but still getting up there.
        
               | chris222 wrote:
               | Sheetz, Wawa and Royal Farms all already have Tesla
               | chargers. Wawa has a location in Virginia with no gas
               | pumps but Tesla chargers. So yes they are already
               | planning for this future.
        
               | earthboundkid wrote:
               | > Recently when I drove around in the USA, I saw Sheetz,
               | Wawa, Royal Farms, Rutter's, and High's.
               | 
               | So you drove from Philly to Pittsburgh?
        
               | evanelias wrote:
               | Not sure about the others, but at least for Wawa and
               | Royal Farms: many locations have offered fast-food style
               | options for a very long time, like 25+ years, maybe more.
               | 
               | Wawa has always been known for quality. I remember years
               | back when there was a romaine lettuce shortage, they put
               | up deeply apologetic signs about how they're temporarily
               | substituting iceberg lettuce in their sandwiches.
               | 
               | Meanwhile Royal Farms is known for their fried chicken.
               | Although, the one near my college in Baltimore was more
               | known for being a frequent target of robberies :/
               | 
               | On a road trip, I recently ate at a Sheetz in central PA
               | that had Electrify America chargers. Good food selection,
               | similar to Wawa. Not the best overall experience though
               | -- an unhinged lunatic flipped out at me for leaving a
               | single unused napkin on my table (which lacked a napkin
               | dispenser, and the place had no recycling can). I avoided
               | that charging location for my return trip...
        
           | solarkraft wrote:
           | > In that world, Tesla would have had to switch their cars
           | over to CCS eventually and retrofit their existing chargers
           | to CCS, and people who bought Teslas with the proprietary
           | plug have a terrible UX of needing adapters everywhere.
           | 
           | They've switched to CCS in Europe and as far as I can tell
           | it's going just fine for them. Not sure what would motivate
           | them to pull this risky move besides an insane love for their
           | customers' UX (which ... I doubt).
        
             | seanmcdirmid wrote:
             | Tesla also does GB/T in China, as required by the Chinese
             | government.
        
             | shmoe wrote:
             | Because they were mandated to and CCS-2 is actually
             | superior to CCS-1. NACS is superior to CCS-1 by far.
        
         | outlace wrote:
         | Tesla Insurance is a kind of small moat. But I think Tesla is
         | really banking on winning the automotive AI race. They
         | currently don't seem to be winning, but that does appear to be
         | their main gamble. If they can be the first to achieve level 4+
         | self-driving then they would definitely dominate regardless of
         | charging infrastructure.
        
           | sakopov wrote:
           | > They currently don't seem to be winning, but that does
           | appear to be their main gamble.
           | 
           | So who do you think is winning it?
        
             | ActorNightly wrote:
             | In terms of usefulness, right now, not Tesla.
             | 
             | At some point there will be a research breakthrough in ML
             | with models that can extrapolate physics which is the
             | current thing that is missing from self driving being
             | actually good.
             | 
             | At that point Tesla is going to be the winner without a
             | doubt because they have the hardware and data to train en
             | masse and deploy to cars.
        
               | 01100011 wrote:
               | This assumes their HW is capable enough to run that
               | algorithm. This remains to be seen.
        
           | traceroute66 wrote:
           | > Tesla Insurance is a kind of small moat.
           | 
           | Only idiots buy black-box based car insurance (whether Tesla
           | or any other).
           | 
           | I mean, come on, insurance companies are already renowned for
           | slippery policy wordings and the desire to get out of paying-
           | out.
           | 
           | Do you seriously think an insurance company having access to
           | your driving data is really being done for your benefit ?
           | 
           | I would be willing to bet its so that Mr Risk Adjustor at the
           | insurance company can say "computer AI algorithm says it
           | thinks you were driving 'aggressively' that morning".
           | 
           | And once "computer says no" you'll have a hell of a time
           | trying to fight it.
        
             | ajross wrote:
             | > Only idiots buy black-box based car insurance
             | 
             | Monitored policies are almost always significantly cheaper.
             | That's why people buy them. I won't engage on who the
             | "idiot" is in that analysis except to say that Adam Smith
             | probably has an opinion.
             | 
             | The reason this works is that it forces the consumers to
             | self-partition into those who think they drive safely and
             | those who know they don't. That doesn't correlate perfectly
             | with _actual_ safety, but it 's clear that it's a good
             | proxy signal. Insurance companies may be renowned for
             | "slippery policy wordings", but they're even better known
             | for doing good statistics.
        
               | gleenn wrote:
               | Anecdata but my mother opted for the sensor tracking on
               | her phone through her insurance company while driving and
               | she saw almost zero cost savings.
        
             | 3pt14159 wrote:
             | Um, no?
             | 
             | Why would a source of signal that has aligned incentives
             | for all three major parties (individual, manufacturer, and
             | insurance company) not be selected for by the market?
             | 
             | It's not as if people are buying meteor insurance here.
             | Automotive accidents are frequent enough to where if a
             | policy provider fails to cover damage that really is in-
             | policy they'll be sued, regulated, and shamed.
             | 
             | Even more so, since Tesla has a financial incentive to
             | ensure that these benefits really do accrue to the driver.
        
             | zerohp wrote:
             | > And once "computer says no" you'll have a hell of a time
             | trying to fight it.
             | 
             | Cars have been equipped with event data recorders that
             | capture information moments before the crash for at least
             | 20 years. It is part of the air bag controller. Insurance
             | companies have equipment to read that data and use it
             | against customers all the time.
             | 
             | You don't need a Tesla or other black box insurance to get
             | cheated.
        
               | gleenn wrote:
               | Having a little accelerometer data that is probably a
               | mild hassle to extract is far different than an always-
               | on, internet-enabled, sensor-filled computer that
               | literally has a camera pointing at your face.
        
             | justrealist wrote:
             | > Do you seriously think an insurance company having access
             | to your driving data is really being done for your benefit
             | ?
             | 
             | Well yes, there's marginal value for both you and Tesla in
             | excluding aggressive drivers from the program. Some company
             | with worse telemetry eats the cost of the accidents from
             | those drivers.
             | 
             | It's fine to argue that this is a privacy tradeoff you
             | don't think should be legal but there's pretty obviously
             | value to be had for both insurance and customer.
        
           | garyfirestorm wrote:
           | Level 4? Mercedes already beat them to level 3
           | 
           | https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23572942/mercedes-
           | drive-p...
        
             | jandrese wrote:
             | The Mercedes system is a headline system. In that it was
             | designed to generate headlines without actually
             | accomplishing much.
        
               | jsight wrote:
               | To be fair, Tesla calls theirs "FSD" for essentially the
               | same reason.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | MB's system accomplishes the levels of _quality_ defined
               | in the SAE standard. Tesla is taking a different strategy
               | by focusing on quantity of features, although many of
               | them fail to meet the reliability standards of the higher
               | SAE specs.
               | 
               | Tesla is stuck at level 2 because the level of
               | reliability required at level 3 would mean they'd have to
               | _remove_ features to meet it.
        
               | ballenf wrote:
               | And turn it off completely when driving on half the roads
               | in the US.
        
               | rasz wrote:
               | Tesla generates plenty of headlines every time one
               | decapitates a driver or crashes full speed into large
               | pretty much visible from space police/fire truck blinking
               | all of its lights.
        
             | 93po wrote:
             | This is a tired argument. Level 3 driving in extremely
             | strict conditions in a very small area using technology and
             | software that doesn't scale isn't "beating" Tesla.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | Level 3 is the lowest level of self-driving. Level 2 and
               | below are driver assistance features. Tesla makes very
               | nice driver assistance features, but they have not
               | released any features which operate the vehicle safely by
               | itself under _any_ circumstance.
               | 
               | MB is beating Tesla in the self driving game because
               | they've released a car that is >0% self driving. Tesla is
               | beating everyone at the driver assistance game.
        
               | 93po wrote:
               | This is semantics. Firstly because this difference is
               | largely because Tesla _chooses_ to not deploy it as level
               | 3 in some tiny highly-mapped market with sensors (LIDAR)
               | and software that don 't scale (MB's level 3 breaks at
               | the first change in roads like construction). Secondly
               | because Tesla is 90%+ of the way to building level 3
               | driving in 99% of places. MB is 99% of the way to level 3
               | driving in 0.1% of places and it would take them years
               | and billions of dollars to get that to 5%. I'll let you
               | do the math and see which is further ahead.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | It's not semantics at all. They're both currently focused
               | on solving very different problems under the broad
               | category of "driving automation". While MBs approach has
               | obvious coverage limitations, the advantage to that
               | approach is that the solution is a more clearly scoped
               | problem with a more obvious answer: expand the coverage.
               | Tesla's approach doesn't have nearly as clear of a path
               | to advancement. They need technology that doesn't yet
               | exist to get there. Some have posed some serious concerns
               | about whether Tesla's feature-first maturity-second
               | approach is an engineering dead end and will ever be able
               | to mature to the point of being able to operate
               | unsupervised. They may be close, but the Pareto principle
               | is a bitch.
               | 
               | Time will tell, but I suspect we'll see Tesla adopt some
               | of the same strategies that other automakers are taking
               | before this race is over.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | > currently focused on solving very different problems
               | 
               | MB is focused on highlines and providing little value for
               | a very high price.
               | 
               | MB is simply no a software company I would trust. Company
               | like Waymo have spend billions and billions to get to
               | where they are and their software engineers are a hell of
               | a lot better then those at MB if I know anything about
               | German software engineering.
               | 
               | Tesla has deployed end to end neural networks that can
               | handle a huge amount of situation and is getting better
               | far faster then MB is improving its system. With MB
               | approach it would take decades to get there and that if
               | you assume really good execution.
        
               | 93po wrote:
               | > clearly scoped problem with a more obvious answer:
               | expand the coverage
               | 
               | That's the problem, though. The scope is always changing.
               | Roads change, barriers get put up, roads are closed,
               | potholes form, detours signs go up. As soon as any of
               | this happens, the extremely accuracy mapping that systems
               | like MB rely on stops working. This has been proven when
               | this sort of tech caused literally a dozen self-driving
               | cars to just randomly stop and block a single
               | intersection a year ago.
               | 
               | > Tesla's approach doesn't have nearly as clear of a path
               | to advancement.
               | 
               | The path is very clear and they're doing it.
               | 
               | > They need technology that doesn't yet exist to get
               | there.
               | 
               | This isn't really the case. Self driving can be done with
               | cameras and sufficiently advanced software alone. The
               | software isn't 100% there yet, which is why they're still
               | requiring human supervision. But the technology is
               | definitely there.
               | 
               | > Some have posed some serious concerns about whether
               | Tesla's feature-first maturity-second approach is an
               | engineering dead end and will ever be able to mature to
               | the point of being able to operate unsupervised
               | 
               | Sure, possibly, but MB's approach is by far the more
               | certain dead-end due to my first point.
               | 
               | > Time will tell, but I suspect we'll see Tesla adopt
               | some of the same strategies that other automakers are
               | taking before this race is over.
               | 
               | I doubt it. The other automakers are using dated methods
               | that have been attempted for decades. Tesla is the first
               | to go balls-out on camera-only automation.
               | 
               | MB's approach will work when cars literally drive on
               | rails.
        
             | fastball wrote:
             | The self-driving car level system is stupid because it is
             | implies linearity but it is absolutely not.
             | 
             | It also implies that higher level == better, which is
             | certainly not a given. Is a system that can drive well on
             | 10% of roads 99% of the time better than a system that can
             | drive on 90% of roads 80% of the time? Not objectively. The
             | former is "level 3" and the latter is "level 2".
             | 
             | A solution that can get you to 3 quickly might _never_ get
             | you to 4. And just because you beat someone else to market
             | with  "level 3" doesn't mean _their_ solution won 't skip
             | over yours straight to 4/5.
        
             | leetharris wrote:
             | Just like how Samsung beat Apple to face scanning
             | technology.
             | 
             | Mercedes version is extremely limited and is only available
             | on $100k+ cars with tons of additional hardware.
             | 
             | I have Tesla FSD. It is certainly overpriced, but it has
             | genuinely been getting a lot better in the last year. When
             | I first got it I was disappointed because it was so
             | useless, now I use it probably 70%+ of my drives.
             | 
             | IMO Tesla is the closest to a mass-market version of the
             | technology.
        
               | tnel77 wrote:
               | There's a huge subset of people who just desperately want
               | to "prove" that the popular company is bad. Apple bad,
               | Tesla bad, etc.
        
           | pfisch wrote:
           | I'm not sure it will really matter that much if they have
           | level 4+ 1 year before their competition.
        
           | w0m wrote:
           | As a current Tesla model 3 owner, when I bought it - there
           | was nothing remotely similar on the market. Today, I see the
           | SC network, AutoPilot and general-'fun' factor as the Tesla
           | differentiators.
           | 
           | When I need to buy a new car in a few years (I honestly have
           | no idea what kind of lifespan to expect), I'm looking forward
           | to more options.
        
         | megaman821 wrote:
         | As a business it seems smarter to grow the pie and increase
         | your revenues even if Tesla's marketshare decreases.
         | 
         | Even through the lens of hating Elon Musk and wanting
         | alternatives, most people have no strong feelings at all. Price
         | and availability largely dictates what Tesla will sell. I have
         | not seen any data Elon's antics change sales volumes.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | Smart or not, it's definitely Tesla's strategy. They have an
           | explicit goal of 20% of the vehicle market. They don't care
           | what their share of the EV market is, they want 20% of the
           | combined market.
        
           | Retric wrote:
           | Tesla's gross margins are down quite a bit since the Twitter
           | deal. It's hard to correlate consumer sentiment with the
           | price drop vs other factors, but gross margins dropped from
           | 27% to 23% which represent a _lot_ of money.
           | 
           | How much this impacts the company going forward is hard to
           | say, but my guess is we're talking 10's of billions. Which
           | makes it much harder to keep up with the expanding EV market,
           | their super charger network for example needs to dramatically
           | increase capacity just to keep up with the current rate of
           | new Tesla production. Aka 25 year old EV's will still need a
           | place to recharge.
        
             | erikstarck wrote:
             | The margins were inflated during the pandemic, though. Musk
             | even called their prices "embarrassingly expensive".
             | 
             | https://www.carscoops.com/2022/07/teslas-prices-are-
             | embarras...
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | Tesla's gross margins were much higher in 2011 than 2022.
               | But yea, this is why I said it's hard to separate how
               | much of this was Tesla specific vs industry wide.
               | However, the need to cut prices despite high inflation
               | was unusual in the car industry and suggests a Tesla
               | specific issue.
        
               | jsight wrote:
               | It is easy to explain when you consider that 2 car models
               | are representing ~1.7M cars this year.
               | 
               | Their strategy is a little nutty and has basically
               | required them to underprice their vehicles.
               | 
               | Any other mfg would cut back production to maintain
               | margins.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Most non-Tesla auto manufacturers are taking a loss on
               | their new EVs ATM as they try to optimize supply and
               | recoup R&D costs.
        
               | jsight wrote:
               | Yeah, but I bet that changes once they get to ~400k per
               | year. That isn't much different from Tesla's path.
        
             | megaman821 wrote:
             | There is no telling how much money is involved in falling
             | margins if you don't also look at revenues. A quick Google
             | search shows their gross profits look fine.
             | 
             | Also, you would have to compare them to other
             | manufacturers. If profits were down an average of 20% and
             | Tesla's were down 10% then they would be over performing
             | their competitors during a down market.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | Gross profits need to pay back capital expenses for
               | equipment or land, R&D, etc which is why moderate drop in
               | gross profits represents a much larger drop on long term
               | profits.
        
         | yumraj wrote:
         | > It's their biggest moat as far as I'm concerned.
         | 
         | It's their biggest moat IFF it's limited to Tesla's and their
         | charging stations.
         | 
         | If every car adopts their charging port/socket and every
         | charging station (Tesla and non-Tesla) supports Tesla's
         | port/socket then the most diminishes and ultimately disappears.
        
         | outworlder wrote:
         | > I'm glad there finally seems to be a push to a better
         | standard in North America.
         | 
         | "Better standard"?
         | 
         | It may be more widely available, the plug is a bit smaller, but
         | it's not objectively 'better'. It does not support 800V,
         | something CCS does even today.
        
         | maxdo wrote:
         | If you thinking about buying an EV between now and 2025 in
         | North America, you need to be a very very big enthusiast of any
         | other brand but not Tesla.
         | 
         | You have a non zero risk of your non tesla car turn into a
         | pumpkin few years after a purchase.
         | 
         | Basically any non tesla EV sold in North America before 2025
         | will depend on a proper work of that adapter with a particular
         | network. And I explore lots of them the other direction, they
         | are all ugly and make your experience horrible. Compare to just
         | plug and go grab a coffee, with find a converter, plug it, make
         | sure it work, get to the tesla app, make sure that part
         | works...
         | 
         | Your traveling will be a charade of opportunity to charge in a
         | particular network.
         | 
         | On the opposite side of it, if you buy a new or a used Tesla
         | made in 2015, it will still charge you 5 years away from now
         | with no issues in basically any network in North America. Not
         | only tesla.
        
         | samstave wrote:
         | #1 ; MAKE ALL PLUGINS A STANDARD. FULL FN STOP
         | 
         | #2 ; PROVIDE A RECEIPT OF WHERE THAT POWER CAME FROM. FULL FN
         | STOP
         | 
         | Where is that energy produced, what are the inputs? How much FN
         | fuel was consumed to deliver that energy to the energy-plant
         | which fed the port to which my e-car hooked up to, WHO TH HECK
         | IS CALCULATING THIS DATA?
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | > Where is that energy produced, what are the inputs?
           | 
           | You'd pretty much just have to look up the averages for the
           | grid in your area. The pixies on the wires get all mixed up
           | in the big pipes, its not like the wires from the car just go
           | straight to a single power plant.
           | 
           | > WHO TH HECK IS CALCULATING THIS DATA?
           | 
           | In the US, the EIA along with local state agencies and grid
           | operators.
           | 
           | https://www.eia.gov/
        
           | Marsymars wrote:
           | > #2 ; PROVIDE A RECEIPT OF WHERE THAT POWER CAME FROM. FULL
           | FN STOP
           | 
           | This isn't really possible other than in a probabilistic
           | sense, you can't keep track of where particular electrons are
           | in the grid.
        
         | KoftaBob wrote:
         | > Is the brand name of being effectively the gas station of EVs
         | worth it to them?
         | 
         | Yes, because it's becoming more and more clear that Tesla's
         | future potential is way more in their role as an energy company
         | than as a carmaker.
         | 
         | - Global charging network for cars + trucks => Tesla as an
         | energy distributor - Residential + utility scale solar +
         | utility scale battery storage => Tesla as a maker of energy
         | production infrastructure - Tesla smart grid software => Tesla
         | as a global electric utility
         | 
         | In other words, they're working towards becoming the clean
         | energy combination of ExxonMobil + General Electric + Your
         | local power company.
         | 
         | The cars are an important business that happen to also incubate
         | and drive forward all the other technologies I mentioned.
        
       | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
       | Sounds like Tesla is hurting to start lowering that barrier to
       | competitors.
        
       | kozziollek wrote:
       | Offtopic: could people that write news titles please learn how to
       | capitalize words? Or can we make sure that at AI will know it,
       | when most of news are written by it?
       | 
       | Took me 3 tries to parse the title.
       | 
       | "Rivian Joins Forces" - is that name of an organization? - "with
       | Tesla"... nope, that doesn't make sense.
       | 
       | "Rivan Joins forces" (somebody to do something), syntax error got
       | "with".
       | 
       | "Rivan joins forces with Tesla" - yay!
       | 
       | And you know that person who wrote this knows about lowercase,
       | because of "with" and "for"...
        
         | thepasswordis wrote:
         | Don't be so smug. This title follows the AP style guide for
         | headlines, which is the norm. So it's not so much that "people
         | that write news titles" need to learn to capitalize words, it's
         | that you need to learn how to read them.
        
         | pipnonsense wrote:
         | It is called Title Case and part of a lot of (American?) news
         | organizations style guides.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Title_case
         | 
         | It confuses me, a non-native English speaker, a lot too. I hate
         | it.
        
           | Brometheus wrote:
           | Me too. They should just use the German way.
           | 
           | Nomens are big and other Words are small.
        
             | DFHippie wrote:
             | I've never understood the point of this. This
             | capitalization standard carries no information. How many
             | nouns in German can also be other parts of speech? It is
             | easy to learn, but how useful is it?
        
               | Timon3 wrote:
               | Many nouns have forms shared by corresponding adjectives
               | and verbs. Some words are overloaded in other ways (e.g.
               | pronouns and nouns). It actually happens quite often and
               | I'd say it helps clear up confusion.
        
           | jfengel wrote:
           | It's often confusing to native speakers as well, especially
           | in a domain like this where words like "join" and "force" can
           | easily be used as buzzwords.
           | 
           | Title case makes a certain limited sense in newspapers. But
           | on HN, where most articles don't use the title case even when
           | the underlying media do use it, there is a lot of potential
           | for confusion.
        
         | angry_moose wrote:
         | The article is titled correctly per most style guides:
         | 
         | Generally speaking, AP style uses title case for headlines,
         | which means all words are capitalized except for certain short
         | words, such as articles and short prepositions.
         | 
         | In AP style, headlines capitalize the first word, proper names,
         | or proper abbreviations, verbs, pronouns, adjectives, and
         | adverbs.
         | 
         | Words that should not be capitalized include:
         | Articles (a, an, the)         Short (fewer than 5 letters)
         | Coordinating Conjunctions (and, but, for)         Prepositions
         | (at, by, from, etc.)
         | 
         | https://writer.com/blog/a-comprehensive-guide-to-the-ap-styl...
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | mattofak wrote:
         | This style of capitalisation is called Title Case [1] and is
         | quite common in English print media.
         | 
         | There are quite a few automated tools to convert back and
         | forth, maybe a future site improvement for Dang in the user
         | preferences.
         | 
         | [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Title_case
        
         | rblatz wrote:
         | It's called Title Case, major words are capitalized and minor
         | words aren't.
         | 
         | https://apastyle.apa.org/style-grammar-guidelines/capitaliza...
        
         | tekla wrote:
         | This is entirely a personal problem. The title is correctly
         | written.
        
         | Pyramus wrote:
         | Here we go again: HN user educates experts from different
         | domain about said domain.
         | 
         | Why not say "I prefer X" instead of "you are too stupid to do
         | X"?
         | 
         | Which might be a legit point and could lead to an interesting
         | conversation...
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | renewiltord wrote:
         | A personal target I have is that I compare my intelligence to
         | an LLM by seeing if it correctly interprets things people say
         | that I have trouble with. In this way, I can see where the LLMs
         | are beating me. I had no trouble with this headline but had I
         | had trouble, I would conclude that ChatGPT-3.5 is smarter than
         | I am on headline interpretation, because it interprets the
         | headline concordant with the story first time.
         | 
         | In this model, I would judge myself as less able to extract
         | information from other humans than ChatGPT. I believe that the
         | ability to extract signal is a good marker of intelligence.
         | Low-spec intelligences often require high-precision: they are
         | more like formal language parsers than natural language parsers
         | and are therefore less sophisticated.
        
         | AntonFriberg wrote:
         | As a non-native English speaker I was confused by the need to
         | capitalize so many words (but not all) in headers. I make
         | frequent use of https://capitalizemytitle.com/ to make sure
         | that I follow some type of standard.
        
         | bigbillheck wrote:
         | > Took me 3 tries to parse the title.
         | 
         | Sounds like, to take a phrase from the youths, a skill issue.
         | 
         | But you and others here may be interested in Language Log's
         | posts on headline
         | dialect:https://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?cat=277
        
         | alistairSH wrote:
         | Title case is distinct from sentence case...
         | 
         | "For Whom the Bell Tolls"
         | 
         | vs
         | 
         | "For whom the bell tolls"
         | 
         | The former is correct for titles. The latter is correct for
         | ordinary sentences.
        
         | Tagbert wrote:
         | In titles, almost all words are capitalized (except for small
         | word like articles of speech).
        
           | sputter_token wrote:
           | I think "with" should be capitalized but "for" should not. I
           | believe AP style guide says that propositions that are four
           | or more letters should be capitalized.
        
             | DFHippie wrote:
             | > ... propositions that are four or more letters ...
             | 
             | So "yes" and "no" but "Maybe"? :-)
        
         | rafram wrote:
         | Title case is standard in news headlines.
        
       | javier_e06 wrote:
       | I am an EV user. My connection is not Tesla compatible. I wish
       | the government would prod manufacturers to create a common
       | connection for all EVs the same way there is a common gas intake
       | for all gas powered vehicles.
        
         | mustacheemperor wrote:
         | >I wish the government would prod manufacturers to create a
         | common connection
         | 
         | That is exactly why this is happening. Tesla is expanding their
         | network and opening it to more manufacturers in pursuit of a
         | $7.5bn federal funding program.[0]
         | 
         | >the new rules, issued after nearly eight months of
         | debate...seeks to give consumers unfettered access to a growing
         | coast-to-coast network of EV charging stations, including
         | Tesla's Superchargers.
         | 
         | >Companies that hope to tap $7.5 billion in federal funding for
         | this network must also adopt the dominant U.S. standard for
         | charging connectors, known as "Combined Charging System" or
         | CCS; use standardized payment options; a single method of
         | identification that works across all chargers; and work 97% of
         | the time.
         | 
         | Interesting enough, Tesla is (currently) obliged to add CCS
         | compatibility to their chargers for eligibility, but these
         | manufacturers are adopting their connector regardless.
         | 
         | >The new rules would allow Tesla to keep its unique connectors,
         | but it will have to add a permanently attached CCS connector or
         | adapter that charges a CCS-compliant vehicle, similar to a gas
         | pump that has a separate handle for gas versus diesel.
         | 
         | [0]https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/new-
         | bi...
        
           | mkozlows wrote:
           | But to be clear, that's not what this news is about. This
           | news is about Tesla's push to get other companies to sign
           | onto their previously-proprietary, still-Tesla-controlled
           | "NACS" standard, en route to pushing the government to change
           | the rules to allow NACS-only chargers and remove the CCS
           | restriction.
        
           | nilsbunger wrote:
           | But will the CCS be as fast at charging ? It seems like Tesla
           | could control a lot with their proprietary connector if it
           | has a faster charge rate.
        
             | recursive wrote:
             | The fastest chargers today are CCS.
        
               | kristofferR wrote:
               | It's a wash, basically.
               | 
               | The fastest CCS chargers are ~360KW, and Tesla
               | Supercharger V4 will apparently support 350KW within a
               | year.
        
               | recursive wrote:
               | Tesla always gets credit for stuff they're about to do.
               | And half the time they don't seem to end up doing it. Or
               | hit their dates. Don't get me wrong. Tesla has some great
               | chargers. But they're great on their actual merits.
        
             | MetaWhirledPeas wrote:
             | > But will the CCS be as fast at charging ? It seems like
             | Tesla could control a lot with their proprietary connector
             | if it has a faster charge rate.
             | 
             | Tesla is supporting CCS because that's what the
             | bureaucratic funding dictates, not because anyone believes
             | CCS will succeed. They will (and should) do the bare
             | minimum.
        
             | iknowstuff wrote:
             | The connector is open. Obviously the producer of the
             | charging station can always determine the charge rate
             | regardless of the connector, which is why most EA stations
             | sit out there in a half broken state limited to 120kW.
        
               | franckl wrote:
               | I would be happy to have that. Most of the time it is 50
               | to 90kW at the 2 EA stations I use in Texas
        
         | mattmaroon wrote:
         | Seems like it's happening without government intervention. It's
         | hard to imagine now that Ford, GM, and Tesla are on the same
         | standard that the rest will not follow suit.
        
           | sangnoir wrote:
           | > Seems like it's happening without government intervention
           | 
           | The federal government has definitely "intervened" by
           | incentivizing interoperability through a $7.5B carrot[1] for
           | interoperable charging networks.
           | 
           | 1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36408329
        
             | meragrin_ wrote:
             | So why is everyone fleeing the North American standards
             | J1772/CCS1 in favor of Tesla's? What do these car companies
             | stand to gain switching the charging port? They don't own
             | charging networks.
        
               | sangnoir wrote:
               | Their agreements with Tesla are not public, so it's hard
               | to tell what the benefits are. You say "everyone" is
               | switching, but it's only American companies that have
               | pledged to switch to NACS from CCS (so far), I don't
               | think 3 for 3 is a coincidence.
               | 
               | Also unlikely to be coincidental is the fact that Tesla
               | "opened up" its charging patents/specs to competitors [1]
               | in _2014_ - but only signed its first partner in 2023, a
               | few months after billions of federal dollars were made
               | available for interoperable charging networks.
               | 
               | 1. IIRC, they included a mutual non-aggression clause for
               | patents, and if a 100-year-old company with plenty of
               | patents like Ford, you may balk at that. I'm speculating
               | that Tesla has been offering much more generous terms
               | than the 2014 offer
        
               | iknowstuff wrote:
               | Those 4 represent like 80-90% of EVs in the US
        
               | mkozlows wrote:
               | While there is a lot of activity going on to build CCS
               | chargers, the current state of the CCS charging network
               | is not great. This is a competitive advantage for Tesla.
               | 
               | So GM and Ford wanted to sign deals to use Tesla's
               | charger network to remove a competitive advantage that
               | Tesla had. Tesla apparently agreed to that, but one
               | condition is that GM and Ford had to agree to switch
               | future vehicles over to Tesla's previously-proprietary
               | (and still Tesla-controlled) "NACS" standards instead of
               | CCS. GM and Ford agreed. Rivian appears to have followed
               | suit after GM and Ford agreed.
               | 
               | Other automakers are now evaluating the landscape to see
               | where things will fall. The best alternative was always
               | going to be that we had a unified CCS standard future,
               | but now that GM/Ford have made that impossible, they may
               | decide that it's better to get some leverage by unifying
               | on NACS rather than having a split-standard future.
        
               | mwint wrote:
               | 1. The Tesla charger is _better_ in essentially every
               | measurable and subjective way.
               | 
               | 2. They want to sell cars, and cars with the Tesla
               | connector have access to Tesla superchargers without a
               | dongle.
        
           | perfectstorm wrote:
           | Volkswagen owns Electrify America the only competitor at
           | scale to Tesla's supercharging network. they uses CCS and VW
           | is one of the largest car manufacturers in the world. i think
           | they can stand on their own. time will tell though.
        
             | gibolt wrote:
             | They were forced to make EA as part of Dieselgate. If most
             | vehicles is the U.S. are on NACS, they will be forced to
             | switch by market forces alone.
        
             | mohaine wrote:
             | World status doesn't mater as this is North America only.
             | Volkswagen doesn't have a chance and tbh, I doubt they care
             | that much.
             | 
             | They certainly didn't care enough to make electrify America
             | good.
        
             | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
             | Go check out some car forums for folks that depend on EA
             | (like Lucid). I've never had an issue with EA, but the
             | general consensus seems to be that EA reliability is
             | abysmal, with stations frequently being down (though
             | reviews seem to be on an uptrend starting in 2023, so
             | perhaps it was a pandemic related issue).
             | 
             | As another commenter stated, though, Volkswagen was forced
             | to create EA as part of their Dieselgate settlement, and
             | their behavior in the past hasn't exactly instilled
             | confidence that they see it as something worth investing
             | in.
        
               | darth_avocado wrote:
               | EA is bad at best. Very unreliable network, especially
               | the ones not near urban centers. Yeah you get reliable
               | charging if you're near big cities but once you're out in
               | the middle of nowhere, it can be terrifying. I've
               | personally arrived at an EA charger to only find it not
               | working and the next closest one was a 50 mile detour.
               | Thankfully I plan liberally, but I'd be in a very bad
               | spot if not. Someone I know, also had a locking problem
               | where the charger wouldn't detach. And I've seen news
               | items relating to literal bricking of cars by using the
               | chargers.
        
           | jeromegv wrote:
           | There has been government intervention.
           | https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-open-us-charging-
           | ne...
        
             | gibolt wrote:
             | The government is actually requiring CCS1 (currently) to
             | get that funding. This may change as more dominoes fall as
             | others adopt NACS.
             | 
             | Considering that nearly all U.S. manufacturers are now
             | switching off of CCS1, this requirement makes no sense
             | since infrastructure is meant to last.
        
               | bisby wrote:
               | Are the chargers/ports on cars easy enough to swap out,
               | or are we manufacturing ewaste?
               | 
               | If I were to buy a car with CCS today, and then in 2024,
               | NACS wins, and all cars going forward have NACS, and all
               | charging stations change to NACS as a result... In the
               | year 2030, can I get the port upgraded, are the changing
               | stations obligated to support CCS indefinitely, is there
               | an adapter I can just keep in my car for NACS->CCS that
               | actually works (NACS->CCS is currently not an option...
               | will it become an option?), or is my CCS car just
               | unchargeable?
        
               | iknowstuff wrote:
               | They all speak the CCS protocol so it's a matter of a
               | simple passive adapter.
        
               | MetaWhirledPeas wrote:
               | > Are the chargers/ports on cars easy enough to swap out,
               | or are we manufacturing ewaste?
               | 
               | I'm not sure those statements are mutually exclusive. All
               | new manufacturing produces ewaste. CCS cars will still be
               | chargeable in one form or another until the car itself
               | dies.
        
         | pseudosavant wrote:
         | I've had EVs for 7+ years now and have plenty of experience
         | with J1772, Chaedmo, and CCS. All I can say is thank heavens
         | Tesla's connector is getting adopted! It is the only connector
         | that seems like it was designed with the ease-of-use regular
         | people expect - not what us early adopter EV people will put up
         | with. This kind of friction does impede adoption too.
        
           | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
           | As someone who has only ever used J1772/CCS, can you explain
           | a bit more? I mean, it's just a plug that I stick into my car
           | - I find the newer US home AC electric plugs with the
           | automatic "safety shutters" harder to plug into than a CCS
           | connector, so I don't really understand what friction you're
           | referring to.
        
         | ShadowBanThis01 wrote:
         | That should have been done years ago. And "prod" should have
         | been "required."
         | 
         | ball = dropped
         | 
         | So now, once again, the USA adopts a "standard" shunned by the
         | rest of the world.
        
           | SllX wrote:
           | I guess Japan and China don't exist in your world.
        
         | mkozlows wrote:
         | They did. It was CCS. Everyone except Tesla was on board to
         | using it, and it was widely viewed as the standard going
         | forward, and even Tesla was retro-fitting its chargers with CCS
         | ("Magic Dock"), and presumably would one day switch its cars
         | over.
         | 
         | Then Tesla pulled a fast one on the morons at GM and Ford, who
         | signed stupid deals that handed the future back to Tesla, and
         | now the only question is whether Tesla consolidates the entire
         | industry behind it (possible) or we end up in a world with a
         | split between NACS and CCS (also possible, but probably less
         | likely).
        
           | mustacheemperor wrote:
           | As far as I know, Tesla will still add CCS compatible
           | adapters to the Supercharger network in the future, since it
           | is a requirement for the EV network funding they're going
           | after by opening up to additional manufacturers.
           | 
           | https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/new-
           | bi...
        
             | mkozlows wrote:
             | That's the plan as of right now, but the clear intent here
             | is to push the government to change the rules to allow
             | NACS-only chargers. If a few more automakers (Hyundai and
             | VW being probably the most relevant) sign deals with Tesla
             | to use NACS, it'd be impossible to argue that there's any
             | reason to do a CCS buildout.
        
             | chrisstanchak wrote:
             | Musk is set up to win both ways. That's the genius.
        
           | AlgorithmicTime wrote:
           | [dead]
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _Tesla pulled a fast one on the morons at GM and Ford_
           | 
           | Consumers prefer NACS to CCS. And Electrify America failed,
           | spectacularly, to deliver a working product. (As someone put
           | it bluntly, NACS exists. CCS does not. You bet on the horse,
           | not the unicorn.)
           | 
           | The auto industry is standardising around NACS because it
           | will eventually force the standard into the open. That, in
           | turn, enables antitrust questions about the
           | Tesla/Supercharger tie-up. (In the meantime, everyone avoids
           | the wastefulness of a meaningless standards battle.)
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | We should have some brand of car install both plugs (as I
             | understand the smarts are in the car, the plug is basically
             | a dumb electrical connection) and then after a year or two
             | see which people are using.
        
           | Server6 wrote:
           | The problem is that CCS is objectively bad and way worse than
           | NACS. I suggest watching Sandy Munro's analysis on it.
        
             | mkozlows wrote:
             | This is what Tesla fans say, but the actual reasons they
             | give are weak.
             | 
             | The advantages of CCS: It supports 800V today, it supports
             | V2L/V2H/V2G today.
             | 
             | The advantages of NACS: It's smaller, which nobody cares
             | about except Tesla fans.
        
               | chrisstanchak wrote:
               | Did you watch Sandy Munro's analysis on it? He's one of
               | the leading minds in the auto industry.
        
             | sangnoir wrote:
             | Sandy Munro has a conflict of interest he doesn't always
             | highlight when reporting on Tesla-related issues.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | specialist wrote:
               | Please tell.
        
             | pseudosavant wrote:
             | I don't think people can hear this loud enough. I own an EV
             | with CCS, I'm glad the rest of the industry looks to be
             | going NACS. CCS is in fact objectively terrible. CCS could
             | only seem decent when it was following on something as
             | truly atrocious as Chademo.
        
               | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
               | > I own an EV with CCS, I'm glad the rest of the industry
               | looks to be going NACS. CCS is in fact objectively
               | terrible.
               | 
               | Can you explain your reasoning? I have an EV with CCS and
               | have never had a problem with it, so I don't know what is
               | "objectively terrible" about it.
        
             | KaiserPro wrote:
             | [citation needed]
             | 
             | Its a plug, its bigger than NACS but apart from that its
             | hard to notice the difference as a consumer
        
               | wilg wrote:
               | It's better engineered and designed. It's that simple.
               | Yes, the differences aren't mind-blowing, but who cares.
               | As long as they properly open it up and standardize it as
               | they are saying they will, then this is a perfectly good
               | outcome. Most EVs and fast chargers in the US have
               | Tesla/NACS ports anyway, so this is the easier lift to
               | standardize.
        
               | sangnoir wrote:
               | It's not black and white: CCS supports 800V charging,
               | NACS does not (yet). Higher voltage = lower current and
               | lighter cables and less strain on the connectors.
               | 
               | Superchargers wete also lagging on liquid-cooled cables,
               | which will be included in v4.
        
               | wilg wrote:
               | If it's possible for NACS to support 800V charging then
               | that is not really a very meaningful advantage of CCS, is
               | it? I think Tesla themselves will eventually switch to
               | 800v at some point.
               | 
               | V3 Superchargers have liquid cooled cables, that's why
               | they are thinner than V2 cables. V4 has even crazier
               | liquid cooling, where the conductors are directly
               | immersed in the coolant.
        
               | sangnoir wrote:
               | Sure it _can_ support higher voltage in a new revision,
               | but that means currently deployed chargers have an
               | inferior design in that aspect, doesn 't it?
        
               | wilg wrote:
               | Sure, but I don't know whether that would be a hardware
               | revision or just a protocol thing how complicated it
               | would be. Could be a software update for all I know. Is
               | it the case that all currently deployed CCS chargers
               | support 800v charging? If not, is it possible for an 800v
               | architecture vehicle to charge at a 400v CCS charger?
               | 
               | Plus, if the concern is the port then I don't necessarily
               | mind that fast charging companies will have to deploy new
               | hardware, as long as the cars don't need to get
               | retrofitted all the time or use adapters.
        
               | KaiserPro wrote:
               | From what I can see, telsa use CCS2 but with a different
               | plug.
               | 
               | In the EU/UK they have the CCS2 plugs on them, and are
               | compatible with any CCS2 capable car.
               | 
               | (source: me, I used one last week for a non tesla car)
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | freerobby wrote:
         | What charge port do you have that isn't Tesla compatible with
         | an adapter?
        
       | martythemaniak wrote:
       | One fact that's not widely appreciated: Tesla is very efficient,
       | and this efficiency is starting to have macro effects such as
       | this. They've been building out their network diligently for over
       | a decade, they have the permitting, assembly, uptime, everything
       | dailed in. Every single dollar of capex they put in the network
       | will get them more connectors and more sites in less time than if
       | EA or any other company will get for that same dollar.
       | 
       | They might also be the only major manufacturer outside of China
       | that can build EVs profitably at scale. 5 years ago the Model 3
       | had no competitors and today they have plenty, when looking at
       | the spec sheets. But no one has been able to ship the sheer
       | numbers of EVs Tesla has, because they either physically can't or
       | won't do it because can't make money (it's hard to say as legacy
       | autos don't break out their EV divisions)
       | 
       | The Model 3 now costs $40,240, which is $33,400 in 2018 dollars
       | after inflation. That is, they are making comfortable margins on
       | the $35K base model they aspired to when they started selling the
       | model.
        
       | isykt wrote:
       | Is there any reason to buy a non-Tesla EV before 2025?
        
         | tdiggity wrote:
         | Buy the car for what it is today, not what it might be
         | tomorrow. Many Tesla owners have been burned hoping for a
         | feature, a retrofit, or even missing out on one taken away.
        
           | isykt wrote:
           | If I'm evaluating EVs for what they are today, I see little
           | reason to buy a non-Tesla, since the charger is going to
           | require an adapter for the charging infrastructure that
           | appears to be the standard soon.
        
             | tdiggity wrote:
             | That's a fair point - if you are going to drive long
             | distances, then a Tesla is the best option in terms of
             | network reliability and price. But for most, an adapter
             | with the occasional road trip isn't a deal breaker. Tesla
             | owners have had to use an adapter for charging at non-
             | superchargers since inception.
        
         | elihu wrote:
         | Sure; maybe you want a type of vehicle Tesla doesn't offer, or
         | you want to buy from a vendor who's more open about making
         | parts and service information available to users, or you want a
         | more traditional car interface with normal switches and buttons
         | rather than a big touch screen.
         | 
         | Your question is sort of like asking if there's any reason to
         | buy a computer that isn't made by Apple. Of course there is, it
         | just depends on what you're looking for.
         | 
         | I'd imagine a lot of people are also explicitly avoiding Tesla
         | due to its association with its increasingly erratic owner.
        
           | isykt wrote:
           | If any of those conditions are true, why not wait until 2025
           | when the charging connection is settled?
        
             | Jolter wrote:
             | What would I drive until then?
        
       | tw04 wrote:
       | I view this as very RIM/Blackberry like, only Tesla has learned
       | from history. Eventually the competitor charging networks were
       | going to be "good enough" - Tesla had the option of working with
       | Ford or GM, or letting them dump their combined resources into a
       | competitor (and every other MFG). Sure in the short-term this
       | will make them more vulnerable to competition, but if your only
       | moat was the charging network you were doomed to fail anyway.
       | 
       | Had RIM opened up BES/BBM to the iphone early on, they might
       | still be around today.
        
         | speed_spread wrote:
         | BES was possibly a more significant part of RIM's than the
         | charger infrastructure is to Tesla. Opening the charger
         | infrastructure is just them defining their moat, really. Tesla
         | will still sell cars but more importantly they'll keep
         | collecting usage data that they'll resell to the highest
         | bidder.
        
           | sebzim4500 wrote:
           | When Tesla sells someone a car for $50k, what do you think is
           | the value of the data on how often they charge it? $20?
           | Surely it can never be a significant revenue stream.
        
             | speed_spread wrote:
             | It's not just charging data obviously, it's all the car
             | usage data. Where you go, how fast, with who... And yes,
             | after a few years, the value of that data is worth more
             | than the original profit they made selling the car itself.
             | Its also recurring revenue, they don't even need to sell
             | you a new car to keep making money.
             | 
             | There's a reason the Ford CEO declared a few years back
             | that Ford was to become "a data company". Tesla is only
             | showing the way. https://threatpost.com/ford-eyes-use-of-
             | customers-personal-d...
             | 
             | Margins on hardware are so slim, it doesn't take much
             | surveillance to double or triple the profit a manufacturer
             | makes over the lifespan of an object. You thought IoT was
             | about customer convenience? It's not science fiction. Smart
             | Televisions already report on what you're watching, in
             | real-time.
             | https://www.samsung.com/us/business/samsungads/insights/
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | > Where you go, how fast, with who..
               | 
               | Where you go can not be inferred from the charging
               | sessions. You can kinda infer the speed, by looking at
               | the state of charger between two sessions. You can't
               | infer with whom you're travelling.
               | 
               | Honestly, people always overinflate the usefulness of
               | "data".
        
               | grepfru_it wrote:
               | Ford will track your entire drive, how you used your car,
               | even the radio station that was playing. All of this data
               | is uploaded when you take your car in for servicing if
               | you do not have a connected car.
               | 
               | OnStar recently (2-3 years ago now?) started feeding
               | 100gbps of telematics data on every single GM car back to
               | GM in an effort to determine better pricing on used cars.
               | Data includes every sensor change on the car and even
               | details from the onboard wireless entertainment system
               | (your wifi device)
               | 
               | These are projects I have worked on. They have an
               | overabundance of data on you and 99% of you fit the model
               | of usefulness
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | Eh, and so what? My phone carrier has most of this info.
               | Google has most of this info (in addition to my emails).
               | 
               | Ford is in for rude awakening if they think that this
               | data is going to seriously help them.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Also, Ford and GM do not do service. A lot of the
               | detailed car information can really help with service and
               | maintenance. But dealers actually don't want that to
               | improve systematically and Ford doesn't gain enough from
               | it.
               | 
               | Tesla makes all that dealer profit themselves and can
               | systematically improve service and make a huge profit
               | from off warranty vehicles. This is a huge revenue stream
               | Tesla is only just starting to get. Something people
               | often miss when they look at future profitability.
               | 
               | Ford and GM make huge amounts of money from part supply
               | fro off warranty cars. Tesla will do even better because
               | they will do the service, not just the parts.
        
               | rasz wrote:
               | >You can't infer with whom you're travelling.
               | 
               | https://www.torquenews.com/11826/tesla-installs-video-
               | camera...
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | I'm talking about data from the charging network.
        
               | sebzim4500 wrote:
               | >There's a reason the Ford CEO declared a few years back
               | that Ford was to become "a data company".
               | 
               | The reason is that 'data companies' are valued vastly
               | higher than car companies with the same revenue.
        
             | mattmaroon wrote:
             | Well they'll have data on non-Tesla users now too. The
             | current market leader in the US has about 17% share, so
             | even if Tesla eventually becomes the biggest auto maker,
             | you'd still expect at least 75% of cars to not be made by
             | them. They now have charging data on those 75%.
             | 
             | More profitable than the data though will be selling the
             | charges. The rates they're charging at Tesla Superchargers
             | are far in excess of what they're paying for the
             | electricity.
        
             | chung8123 wrote:
             | That is an interesting question. If Tesla has a network of
             | cars collecting real world data that can be used to train
             | ML I suspect it might be more than $20 per Tesla in the
             | future (they can sell models to other manufacturers). Maybe
             | not right now but more a future thing.
        
       | rednerrus wrote:
       | So now Tesla is going to own all of the "Gas Stations" in
       | America?
        
       | V__ wrote:
       | Why are these automakers pushing to adopt Teslas solution, which
       | isn't standardized or open, instead of creating a new CCS3?
       | 
       | I can't imagine NACS to ever be adopted in the EU, so why the
       | additional complexity?
        
         | 015a wrote:
         | Europe's CCS and America's CCS are already incompatible (CCS1
         | vs 2).
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | Tesla solution is open.
         | 
         | Why not CCS3, because that would take many years to get going
         | and no charging network for it would exist.
         | 
         | Tesla alone has 3000 Superchargers in the US. It would take
         | decades to get CCS3 to that point.
         | 
         | > I can't imagine NACS to ever be adopted in the EU, so why the
         | additional complexity?
         | 
         | That complexity is already there. NACS will be the standard in
         | North America. CCS2 in Europe. Korea seems to insist in CHAdeMO
         | and China GB/T.
         | 
         | A lot of the rest of the world is open to be captured by
         | different standards.
        
       | piinbinary wrote:
       | I wonder if Tesla is repositioning from being a Ford to being an
       | Exxon
        
         | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
         | Tesla has been the the vertical integration and power supply
         | business for a while now. Or at least has wanted to be. See the
         | Tesla PowerWall and Solar Roof projects.
        
           | martin8412 wrote:
           | Both of which are customer nightmares?
        
             | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
             | I said "has wanted to be" - because intent is not always
             | the same as outcome.
        
         | bushbaba wrote:
         | Tesla was always closer in vision to an energy company than
         | auto maker.
         | 
         | Wouldn't surprise me if they leverage the healthy EV
         | competition to growing their battery, supercharger, and energy
         | generation capabilities. With these one day overtaking car
         | sales revenue.
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | What battery capability? Do they even make the top 10? And
           | superchargers are pretty sweet, but there is no moat at all
           | there, anybody can make a NACS fast charger. EA hasn't done
           | great, but that doesn't mean anything other than EA kinda
           | sucks, there are plenty of manufacturers capable of building
           | reliable DC chargers.
        
             | 93po wrote:
             | Tesla's Nevada plant makes 37 gWh per year and is currently
             | expanding to 100 gWh per year. 100 gWh would put that at #2
             | if it was operational today, however the current leaders
             | will also continue to grow rapidly so it's unlikely they'd
             | go above the middle of the top 10 list.
        
         | bequanna wrote:
         | Idk if that is a perfect comparison. Maybe if Tesla starts
         | mining uranium and opens some nuclear plants.
        
           | jkestner wrote:
           | Tesla is building a lithium refinery now.
           | https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-
           | transportation/tesla-...
        
             | bequanna wrote:
             | Lithium stores energy. If Tesla is Exxon they also need to
             | vertically integrate and source actual energy, which I
             | suppose they do to some extent with SolarCity.
        
         | bdcravens wrote:
         | Has been for a long time. There's a reason why the solar panels
         | and solar batteries are branded as Tesla and not Solar City.
        
         | Tuna-Fish wrote:
         | I don't think the business case for that closes.
         | 
         | EVs are still overwhelmingly charged overnight at home. As they
         | percolate to lower price points, that will change somewhat, but
         | ultimately the total spend on charging stations is just too low
         | to be much more than a distraction for a company the size of
         | Tesla. The reason they built the supercharger network was that
         | it was needed to sell cars, and now that they have it they
         | might as well make money with it. I doubt it's much more than
         | that.
        
           | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
           | > EVs are still overwhelmingly charged overnight at home
           | 
           | And Tesla would like to be in that business too, with
           | PowerWall batteries and "solar roof" panels.
           | 
           | If they're succeeding well here is another matter though.
        
           | alistairSH wrote:
           | You hinted at this, but a significant % of the population
           | lives in either rented or multi-family housing, so home
           | charging may not be feasible (at least in the short-to-medium
           | term).
           | 
           | While I own my home, I don't own my parking space (community
           | property, assigned to me via HOA rules). While we're allowed
           | to install a chargers, it's only possible for homes with
           | assigned spaces directly in front of the home (albeit pricey,
           | as it involves concrete work to run cables under community
           | sidewalks). Some homes have spaces offset by a fair distance,
           | or across community street, so installing a home charger is
           | either extremely expensive or impossible.
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | The people who can charge at home still make up more than
             | 50% of the market, though, and there's a few more years
             | before that really becomes a limiting factor in sales.
             | That's plenty of time for most places to get L2 chargers
             | available.
        
               | alistairSH wrote:
               | Absolutely.
               | 
               | But, it is a problem that needs solved. We're firmly
               | within the "buy a new EV" demographic otherwise, but the
               | cost+hassle of installing a charger at home definitely
               | contributes to our "meh, we'll keep the ICE another year
               | or two" mentality.
               | 
               | And in a few years, charger availability might start to
               | impact resales. Maybe. Mostly just thinking aloud.
        
           | piinbinary wrote:
           | First reaction: I think you are right. Not only will a large
           | portion of all chargeups happen at home, but I also wouldn't
           | be surprised if the margin is lower.
           | 
           | Second reaction: Maybe there's a business model where most of
           | the profit from a charging station comes from things other
           | than charging (e.g. onsite coffee shop, store, gym, etc) that
           | gives people things to do while charging.
        
         | simondotau wrote:
         | Despite being one of its most visible operations, the
         | supercharger network is an utterly minuscule part of Tesla's
         | overall business. It's unlikely to ever represent much more
         | than 1% of Tesla's profit.
         | 
         | There's never going to be big money in vehicle charging because
         | the vast majority of charging occurs at the owner's premises,
         | and there's no technical impediment stopping the remainder from
         | being a highly competitive industry.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | The impediment is that it takes a huge amount of technical
           | knowledge and execution, plus a huge amount of capital, plus
           | the ability to operate a huge service and maintenance team.
           | 
           | If there is already a very large first rate infrastructure,
           | then replicating that is very difficult.
           | 
           | Your statement sounds to me like 'trains are technically
           | easy' there is not reason we can't have highly competitive
           | industry in cargo transport from Chicago to New York. But yet
           | there is only one company really operating that
           | infrastructure.
           | 
           | Charging is not as extreme of a case as trains, but putting
           | in huge capital investment for minimal profit just doesn't
           | make a lot of sense.
           | 
           | We can see this today, EA is losing money. Non Tesla charge
           | companies all lose money.
        
             | toast0 wrote:
             | If charging is all pay per use and not a subscription
             | (especially not a subscription you get included with a
             | vehicle), there's no need to operate on a large scale; it's
             | like gas stations: most are franchised chain stations, but
             | there's tons of independents.
             | 
             | Electrify America is the product of a court settlement; it
             | doesn't really need to earn money, it just needs to keep VW
             | out of court.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Electrify America has already spent the money from the
               | court settlement, they need raise money like any other
               | company and make a profit.
               | 
               | > If charging is all pay per use and not a subscription
               | (especially not a subscription you get included with a
               | vehicle)
               | 
               | Those things are already happening on large scale.
               | 
               | The logic you suggest is only true if an independent can
               | easily make a competitive station. The problem is Tesla
               | is mass producing super charges at prices that simply
               | can't be matched by other producers.
               | 
               | There are also economics of scale in terms of routing
               | cars and achieving higher utilization.
               | 
               | Private franchises need to actually make a good profit to
               | be worth setting up. In EV charging the money goes to the
               | equipment provider or the electricity producer. You might
               | make some money with additional services like a shop or a
               | cafe. But in that case you might as well make a deal with
               | a large player like Tesla to put up a station.
               | 
               | Also if your station breaks, you need an repair person to
               | show up quickly. And company that sell charging equipment
               | they mass produced are usually not good at providing
               | those services.
               | 
               | You will also have the disadvantage that the biggest
               | fleet will simply route people to their own stations.
               | Driving down your utilization.
               | 
               | I think most charging networks will be large not
               | individual. We see very few individual DC fast chargers.
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | That seems foolish from a business perspective. The one thing
         | they're most successful at is cars. They built an incredible
         | first-mover advantage in EVs, but that isn't at all true in the
         | power market. They're just a blip in the battery market. And
         | while superchargers are great, there's no moat there at all.
         | 
         | If they're smart, they'll double down on cars like the Model 3
         | & Y, and instead of making them sillier (no stalks?!) they'll
         | make them ever more appealing and cost competitive. They're the
         | Toyota of the EV world right now, and if they play this right
         | they'll be the Toyota of the whole market in 10 years. They
         | would need a proper truck, though, to make that happen.
        
           | dzader wrote:
           | [dead]
        
       | josefresco wrote:
       | Tesla fans before 2023: The Supercharger network is just
       | supplemental! Most charging is done at home, range anxiety is BS!
       | 
       | Tesla fans after 2023: The Supercharger is our most important
       | competitive advantage! Any automaker not adapting our standard
       | will die!
        
         | Kirby64 wrote:
         | When has this ever been true? The supercharger network was
         | always one of the key advantages of a Tesla over any other EV:
         | you could actually have a reliable fast charging network, as
         | opposed to the patchwork of other questionable charging
         | networks. You actually could, reliably, expect a road trip to
         | not have any issues.
        
         | e36 wrote:
         | You don't have to like "Tesla fans," but you're just being
         | dishonest with comments like this.
        
         | revscat wrote:
         | I truly abhor strawman comments such as this. They offer
         | nothing other than a false sense of superiority. They are like
         | buzzing mosquitos on a hike: annoying, distracting, and
         | useless.
        
         | 93po wrote:
         | Tesla haters before 2023: Tesla is bad because X
         | 
         | Tesla haters after 2023: Sure X is fixed, but Tesla is bad
         | because of Y
        
         | mardifoufs wrote:
         | This does not even make sense, even beyond the weird strawman.
         | If the "Tesla fans" think the superchargers are their most
         | competitive advantage... Why would they want other automakers
         | to adopt it?
        
       | alistairSH wrote:
       | Is Tesla planning to update Supercharger stations to accommodate
       | non-Tesla vehicles.
       | 
       | Charge plug notwithstanding, the placement of Supercharger stands
       | is usually for the left-rear charge port on all current Teslas.
       | The stand location and cable length is a problem for vehicles
       | with different designs.
       | 
       | Demonstrated here (particularly the F-150 Lightning)...
       | 
       | https://youtu.be/W-oaVLRH-js?t=519
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | Yes.
         | https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/19/23689247/tesla-v4-superch...
        
         | londons_explore wrote:
         | I hope that part of the standard is that all vehicles shall
         | have a charge plug on either front/right or back/left corners.
         | 
         | Making the cable longer makes the experience worse for everyone
         | - it makes the cable heavier (harder to use), more expensive
         | (which will end up in power prices), easier to damage (as it is
         | dragged across the floor or driven over), more electrical
         | losses in the cable (again, higher prices).
         | 
         | There are plenty of other things we have standardized for
         | similar reasons - for example, imagine if different banks had
         | credit cards that were different sizes so wouldn't fit in your
         | wallet.
        
           | alistairSH wrote:
           | I never understood why front-center didn't become the
           | standard here. That would obviate more stand placement and
           | cable length issues.
           | 
           | The only people who stand to lose are those weirdos who
           | reverse into parking places. ;)
           | 
           | (Rear-center would work too)
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | Having the connector in a corner is definitely a lot nicer
             | than central. However, it should be on a passenger side
             | corner rather than driver side as Tesla uses to make
             | curbside charging more convenient.
        
             | jsight wrote:
             | Front center is more prone to debris and ultimately a
             | little less helpful for vehicles that will tow frequently.
        
             | londons_explore wrote:
             | One day, on street parking will want to have charging, and
             | that is nearly all parallel parking, for which front/rear
             | center would be suboptimal.
        
               | alistairSH wrote:
               | Less sub-optimal than Tesla's driver-side port.
        
             | spike021 wrote:
             | >The only people who stand to lose are those weirdos who
             | reverse into parking places. ;)
             | 
             | As a weirdo who reverses into parking spaces, I find that
             | it's almost always safer doing that in a crowded parking
             | lot than it is to park nose in.
             | 
             | When you're driving up to the spot you're already
             | (hopefully) fully attentive to any risks (children,
             | animals, people crossing, whatever), and can wait or
             | carefully drive around those obstacles. Then when you're
             | ready to leave you're already facing the optimal angle to
             | slowly inch out and look in all directions for hazards.
             | 
             | If you're backing out of a car space you have to trust your
             | ability to look at all three mirrors simultaneously +
             | ideally also straining your neck to cover blind spots.
        
               | rtkwe wrote:
               | Or back out the easier and safer way and place your arm
               | behind the passenger seat and physically look out the
               | back windows. It's the way we're taught to reverse where
               | I learned to drive, granted this was before backup
               | cameras existed.
        
               | 93po wrote:
               | Many modern cars have very good backup cameras that also
               | show incoming traffic from both sides and don't required
               | 5 eyeballs
        
               | spike021 wrote:
               | Maybe on HN the majority of people have those modern
               | cars, but I assure you in the real world the odds are not
               | that good.
        
               | post-it wrote:
               | Are there any electric cars without backup cameras?
        
               | 93po wrote:
               | In the context of cars that would be using these
               | chargers, I would assume the vast majority would be
               | "modern" and have good backup cameras
        
               | SomewhatLikely wrote:
               | As of 2018, all new cars in the U.S. have been required
               | to have a backup camera.
        
             | bearjaws wrote:
             | Probably a few reasons:
             | 
             | 1. Number of rear end and front end collisions and how
             | expensive it would be to repair charge ports.
             | 
             | 2. It would be ugly, people complain about the radar
             | placement on some cars, imagine every car having both a
             | radar and charge port right in the middle.
        
       | mdasen wrote:
       | The recent moves by Tesla have probably been to force the
       | government to amend regulations that would standardize the CCS
       | Type 1 connector for DC fast charging. These rules were announced
       | in February by the Biden administration for projects funded by
       | the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program.
       | 
       | If Tesla hadn't gotten others on board, the next 5 years would
       | likely see CCS chargers eclipse the Supercharger network many
       | times over with probably 5-7x more CCS chargers as Tesla
       | chargers. As people in this thread have said, the Supercharger
       | network is a big selling point for Teslas. If CCS charging
       | availability were 5-7x greater than Tesla availability, that
       | current advantage would become a liability for Tesla over the
       | long-run.
       | 
       | Given that GM, Ford, and Rivian are all announcing that they're
       | adopting the CCS charger, it seems likely that the government
       | will probably change their regulations around charging standards
       | to the Tesla charger. If the three largest American EV companies
       | are all using NACS in 2025, it makes little sense for them to
       | mandate CCS chargers. With Tesla, Ford, Rivian, and GM all going
       | NACS, it seems likely that more will follow. Hyundai is already
       | thinking about it: https://www.autoblog.com/2023/06/20/hyundai-
       | to-consider-join.... Stellantis (Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Fiat) is
       | evaluating it: https://fordauthority.com/2023/06/ford-rival-
       | stellantis-look....
       | 
       | In fact, Tesla had to make its connector non-proprietary or
       | they'd be locked out of everything funded by the National
       | Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program. The rules allow for non-
       | CCS chargers to be available (as long as there's also a CCS
       | charger) only if they're non-proprietary. If Tesla had kept their
       | connector proprietary, any charger with a Tesla connector would
       | be ineligible for government funding. Now, they can have a Tesla
       | connector as long as they also have a CCS connector. As I've
       | speculated, given that it seems likely most EVs sold in the US
       | will be using NACS from 2025+, it seems likely that the
       | government will even change its rules to favor the NACS
       | connector.
       | 
       | Tesla's shift to calling it the North American Charging Standard
       | and opening it up to competitors is probably more about
       | preventing one of their advantages (Tesla vehicles being
       | compatible with the most charging stations) into a major
       | liability (Tesla vehicles requiring an adapter to use the
       | majority of charging stations in 2025+).
       | 
       | https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2023-02-28/pdf/2023-0...
        
         | MrMetlHed wrote:
         | I would hope that the government still wouldn't give Tesla any
         | funding until they agreed to the rest of the rules within the
         | bill. They need a way to charge without an app and an open
         | communication standard to initiate a charge. Anyone that has
         | the proper adapter / port should be able to charge at any
         | charging station that receives any amount of government
         | funding. No one should have to rely on their vehicle
         | manufacturer making a deal with the charger owner to charge at
         | a station.
        
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       (page generated 2023-06-20 23:01 UTC)