[HN Gopher] AI has poisoned its own well
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       AI has poisoned its own well
        
       Author : serhack_
       Score  : 50 points
       Date   : 2023-06-19 08:33 UTC (14 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (tracydurnell.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (tracydurnell.com)
        
       | Joker_vD wrote:
       | > too many people have pumped the internet full of mediocre
       | generated content with no indication of provenance
       | 
       | I don't know about the text models, but e.g. Stable Diffusion
       | (and most of its derived checkpoints) has _very_ recognizable
       | looks.
       | 
       | By the way, does anyone know if such generative models could be
       | used as classifiers, answering the "what's the probability that
       | this input was generated by this model" question? That'd help
       | solving the "obtaining quality training data" problem: use the
       | data that has low probability of being generated by any of the
       | most popular models. It's not like people started to produce less
       | hand-made content anyhow!
        
         | waveBidder wrote:
         | the previous generation of image generation, GANs (generative
         | adversarial networks) was actually done by pairing a
         | discriminator trying to tell if the image was generated or not,
         | and a generator.
        
       | raxxorraxor wrote:
       | If the generated content is vetted by an adversarial network, we
       | theoretically have a recursively improving AI. Perhaps by
       | introducing more randomness we could even reach some form of
       | evolution that can introduce new concepts, since limited scopes
       | is still what gives AIs away in the end. That is the optimistic
       | perspective at least.
       | 
       | On the net, search and content quality is already pretty low for
       | certain key words. If a word is part of the news cycle, expect
       | hundreds of badly researched news paper articles, some of which
       | might be generated as well. Or if they weren't, you wouldn't
       | notice a difference if they become that.
       | 
       | But I don't believe the companies made a mistake. They could even
       | protect their position with the data they already acquired and
       | classified. Maybe a quality label would say genuine human(r).
       | 
       | If all that fails large companies would also be able to employ
       | thousands of low wage workers to classify new content. The
       | increasing memory problem persists, I think that is a race where
       | the model that can extract data as efficiently as possible will
       | win. But without the data sets, there is no way to verify
       | performance.
        
         | sesteel wrote:
         | Yep! The singularity concept people talk about relies on a
         | feedback loop like you described. So, she isn't wrong, per se,
         | but just telling a fragment of the story that exist today.
        
         | deeviant wrote:
         | This is exactly what I thought when I read the article.
         | Specifically, that it's exactly opposite-of-correct; this is
         | exactly the thing that will push LLMs to the next level.
         | 
         | I think the simple idea using chatGPT to filter it's input set
         | with result in drastically higher quality dataset. Add in the
         | ability for chatgpt to use plugins and such like wolfram alpha
         | to fact check it's answers then chatgpt can actually start
         | generating input data from know good sources in areas it knows
         | it's having quality issues.
         | 
         | I mean, it literally looks like the beginning of self-learning
         | AI.
        
       | Arnt wrote:
       | The article seems to build on several foundations, but one is
       | critical: That the AIs need enormous amount of data, and that
       | that data has to be from a pool that people can now poison with
       | AI-generated data. If that doesn't hold, nothing in the article
       | holds.
       | 
       | And it doesn't seem clear to me. It may be true, but far from
       | obvious.
       | 
       | For example, DALL-E, which was better than its predecessors. Was
       | it better because of mode input data, that is, was more input
       | data a necessary condition for its improvement? Or even the
       | biggest reason? Reading the OpenAI blog makes it sound as if they
       | had new kinds of AI models, new ideas about models, and that the
       | use of data from a web crawler was little more than a cost
       | optimisation. If that's true, then then it should be possible to
       | build another generation of image AI by combining more new
       | insights with, say, the picture archives of Reuters and other
       | companies with archives of known provenance.
       | 
       | Maybe I'm an elitist snob, but the idea that you can generate
       | amazing pictures using the Reuters archive sounds more plausible
       | than that you could do the same using a picture archive from all
       | the world's SEOspam pages. SEOspam just doesn't look intelligent
       | or amazing.
        
         | spacebanana7 wrote:
         | > That the AIs need enormous amount of data
         | 
         | I was surprised to learn that it didn't take an enormous amount
         | of data to train Llama.
         | 
         | Meta used 1.4 trillion tokens training Llama, but that's only
         | about a million times the Harry Potter collection [1]. Given
         | that the kindle store has 12 million books [2], it's credible
         | to get 1.4T tokens just from that. Twitter has 200 billion new
         | tweets per year, so it'd only take 7 tokens per Tweet for that
         | to produce a Llama sized dataset every year.
         | 
         | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LLaMA [2]
         | https://blog.fostergrant.co.uk/2017/08/03/word-counts-popula...
         | (1 million words) [3] https://www.omnicoreagency.com/twitter-
         | statistics
        
       | more_corn wrote:
       | This is a common but misunderstood concern. It's one of those
       | worries that seems sound in theory, but practice doesn't bear it
       | out. Remember when people were up in arms about SSD wear cycles?
       | Yeah that's not actually the way they fail. There are real
       | problems with AI. This is not one of them.
        
       | blibble wrote:
       | I certainly replaced my highly starred projects on GitHub with
       | randomly generated crap (build passes!) when they announced
       | copilot
        
       | fnordpiglet wrote:
       | Humans have generated much more content to date than these models
       | are being trained on. Facebook has enormous amounts of human to
       | human interactions at its disposal, and presumably will continue
       | collecting more and more. Likewise there will exist forums where
       | humans write to other humans, like this one, regardless of the
       | pervasiveness of spam on the internet. Finally, most LLM are
       | trained off curated data sets that are not all encompassing of
       | all written text. The process of curating the dataset is
       | necessarily constraining and that means the data admitted so far
       | must be much smaller than the data possible to admit. These
       | analyses also assume we've reached a fixed point in the
       | algorithmic ability of these models to converge.
       | 
       | I think the truth is we've written all that ever needs to be
       | written, and even if they universe becomes populated by on AI LLM
       | chat bots communicating, they will be fine to feast off of what
       | we've left them as a legacy.
        
         | JimtheCoder wrote:
         | "I think the truth is we've written all that ever needs to be
         | written"
         | 
         | I highly doubt this statement.
         | 
         | How useful would ChatGPT 4 be if it was trained only on data up
         | to 2013? (Assuming the total amount of data it was trained on
         | was the same) Would it be like talking to a human who was
         | sitting in their basement for the past decade? I am not sure
         | how useful that would be to me.
        
           | fnordpiglet wrote:
           | That's fair - current events aren't covered. However, my
           | point wasn't about salience of facts but language ability.
        
           | throwuwu wrote:
           | Once it can read, has a broad vocabulary and can reason
           | enough to synthesize information from what is given then you
           | don't need to train it any further. We're at that point now.
           | Everything going forward is just engineering, even just
           | finding ways to increase the context length will allow these
           | models to work with any data available. OpenAI is very
           | publicly working on that and so is Anthropic. You can also
           | apply some finesse and combine the model with external tools
           | like search and databases or custom built APIs, practically
           | everyone and their dog is experimenting with this approach.
           | So even if no better models are made, which seems unlikely to
           | be the case, we'll be utilizing the current generation in all
           | kinds of ways from here on out.
        
             | mvdtnz wrote:
             | > Once it can read, has a broad vocabulary and can reason
             | enough to synthesize information from what is given then
             | you don't need to train it any further
             | 
             | And what is it going to read? How will it distinguish
             | anything it reads today from AI generated content? Don't
             | you see you've just set up the exact same circumstance that
             | the article talks about?
        
             | JimtheCoder wrote:
             | "...and can reason enough..."
             | 
             | Are we actually at this point now? I am less confident than
             | you are...
        
           | randcraw wrote:
           | And if the data that LLMs have trained on is only simple
           | social conversation, what level of intelligence will that
           | begat? No nobel-laureate-level 'thinking' is going to arise
           | from training text composed of obvious or trivial statements
           | -- which surely compose 99% of ChatGPT's training material.
           | 
           | These days, it's a rare piece of text that surprises the
           | reader with creative or ingenious or outside-the-box
           | thinking. If we want higher level cognition from future LLMs,
           | where will such deep thought come from? Surely not the
           | training data used now: email, tweets, reddit, mass media,
           | etc. GIGO indeed.
           | 
           | Much has been written, yes. But not much of that is worth
           | reading.
        
             | xp84 wrote:
             | It does seem like limiting new training material to only
             | good quality information would be prudent rather than
             | slurping up entire GPT-produced spam sites. Sure, LLMs will
             | have been used to refine and assist much of it from here on
             | out, but I'd like to think theses, newspapers, etc won't
             | just be produced entirely by unsupervised robots and not
             | even fact-checked. If that's the case we'll have bigger
             | problems.
        
             | fnordpiglet wrote:
             | Well, I'd say that given LLM have no agency, if a Nobel
             | laureate uses LLMs to produce their text with their direct
             | guidance of the concepts to convey and details. I think LLM
             | aren't just useful as oracles but as calculators for
             | writing. To that end I don't find math done using matlab is
             | any less useful than artisanal hand made math. Likewise
             | text constrained and informed by a human mind with novel
             | information but presented by a LLM- is it inferior?
        
       | sogen wrote:
       | An aspect never mentioned is that this data only fed from active
       | users, which are the minority of people.
       | 
       | Majority of online users are lurkers, so all of these models are
       | extremely biased on whom they got their information from.
        
         | asdff wrote:
         | The demography and expertise of your typical lurker probably
         | vary over time as well. E.g. someone writing in a physics
         | newsgroup in the usenet era I would guess is more likely to
         | have relevant expertise than one writing in a physics subreddit
         | today, now that the internet has grown beyond a population of
         | predominantly academics and techies.
        
           | sogen wrote:
           | Yep, exactly. For example Saurik only pops up here on HN from
           | time to time.
           | 
           | Same thing could be said of people that aren't online too
           | much or barely never on tech forums, like John Carmack.
        
           | thghtihadanacct wrote:
           | Interesting you say 'subreddit' ... like thats a thing beyond
           | the social platform ... while responding in an HN comment.
        
             | thghtihadanacct wrote:
             | Is this a reddit MOD that keeps killing reddit savvy
             | statements? HN is about to lose it all to mastadon too huh.
             | Im seeing less interesting here everyday anyway
        
           | thghtihadanacct wrote:
           | Either way, thats like saying an oil worker from the 1950's
           | is different than an oil worker now. Yeah, thanks for the
           | obvious
        
       | thaw13579 wrote:
       | I don't think it's so cut and dry. The article paints a somewhat
       | simplistic picture of how the best performing LLMs work. The
       | unsupervised pre-trained networks are indeed data hungry, but the
       | secondary supervised learning stages actually can get by with a
       | far smaller set of highly curated prompt-response data, e.g. LIMA
       | (https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.11206).
       | 
       | Another factor is that generative data distributed online may be
       | quite high quality (because people find it interesting enough to
       | share), so it's plausible this could actually improve model
       | performance. Some LLMs have been trained with data from other
       | models with good results, e.g. supposedly Bard with GPT-4 prompt-
       | response pairs and GPT-4 with Whisper transcripts of YouTube
       | (https://twitter.com/amir/status/1641219919202361344/photo/1). Of
       | course, there could be trolling or misinformation that "poisons"
       | the data, and that is a problem (whether synthetic or organic)!
        
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       (page generated 2023-06-19 23:02 UTC)