[HN Gopher] AI intensifies fight against 'paper mills' that chur...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       AI intensifies fight against 'paper mills' that churn out fake
       research
        
       Author : headalgorithm
       Score  : 146 points
       Date   : 2023-05-31 15:18 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nature.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nature.com)
        
       | x3874 wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | naillo wrote:
       | The problem is the people doing this. The AI doesn't have agency,
       | it's just an autocomplete tool.
        
         | burkaman wrote:
         | That doesn't really seem relevant to the discussion. AI
         | obviously makes it 1000x easier to generate realistic-looking
         | fake papers, so it "intensifies" the issue as this article
         | explains. It is newsworthy and discussion-worthy, and as you
         | said AI doesn't have agency so we don't need to worry about
         | hurting its feelings by referencing it in a headline.
        
           | juve1996 wrote:
           | The only reason it's a problem is that papers became the
           | measure - more papers = more prestige. The measure will
           | simply change because now it won't have a strong signal.
        
             | burkaman wrote:
             | That is not the only reason and it's not the most important
             | reason. Papers are useful in the real world and people use
             | them to learn stuff, and also reference them as evidence.
             | If you're trying to learn about a topic and you have to
             | wade through 90% bullshit AI papers when search for the
             | topic, when you aren't experienced enough to immediately
             | tell which papers are real, that's a problem. If malicious
             | actors are able to spread disinformation that cites very
             | real-looking research, or pitch journalists with very real-
             | looking papers, that's a problem.
        
               | juve1996 wrote:
               | No, papers are not always useful. That isn't an inherent
               | property. They _can_ be useful. It depends on the content
               | of the paper.
               | 
               | If you can't tell whether a paper is real or bullshit it
               | doesn't matter if an AI or a human created it.
               | Journalists will, heaven forbid, have to do real
               | journalism instead of blindly trusting some piece of
               | paper they found somewhere.
        
               | burkaman wrote:
               | > If you can't tell whether a paper is real or bullshit
               | it doesn't matter if an AI or a human created it.
               | 
               | That's true, but now it's incredibly easy to create a
               | human-quality bullshit paper. That wasn't true a year
               | ago. It doesn't matter who created it, but it does matter
               | how easy it was to create.
               | 
               | > Journalists will, heaven forbid, have to do real
               | journalism instead of blindly trusting some piece of
               | paper they found somewhere.
               | 
               | That's true, but now it's incredibly easy to generate a
               | real-looking piece of paper and send it to a journalist,
               | prompting them to spend a day doing real journalism to
               | verify it. That wasn't true a year ago.
        
         | waboremo wrote:
         | Right so what solutions do you have here to prevent people from
         | using the autocomplete tool for harm?
        
           | naillo wrote:
           | Punish the people using it, disallow and shame people who are
           | found to use it. The usual stuff when you want people to stop
           | doing things. (Not legally ban the whole population from
           | making use of it even in cases where it's productive.)
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | Legitimate journals (or groups of journals) might need to
           | institute a throttling mechanism to limit the rate at which
           | individual authors can submit papers. They might also need
           | some kind of reputation tracking system so that reviewers can
           | flag articles as low quality, and then future submissions by
           | the same author will be treated as lower priority. Open
           | access journals can raise author fees.
        
         | EGreg wrote:
         | Guns don't kill people. They have no agency. But they sure make
         | it easier.
        
           | noughtme wrote:
           | Illegal guns kill people. Something like 80-90% of guns
           | involved in homicide are illegally obtained/possessed. This
           | is relevant because like banning guns, "banning" AI shouldn't
           | be the focus. It seems like an AI detection arms race is
           | inevitable.
        
             | EGreg wrote:
             | Wait a moment. If 80-90% of guns used to kill people are
             | illegally obtained, that means the laws successfully
             | generate a regime by which guns are obtained much more
             | safely. Now all that remains is to enforce the laws and
             | crack down on illegal gun sales (although in USA that isn't
             | all since old guns already purchased illegally will
             | continue to work for decades)
             | 
             | It's like when people were saying that 80-90% of people
             | dying in hospitals were unvaccinated. So vaccination helped
             | right?
        
             | goodpoint wrote:
             | Then how comes a 10 year old cannot buy a gun or drive a
             | car?
        
             | joncrocks wrote:
             | Apologies for taking the bait.
             | 
             | If the number of legal firearms were reduced then would
             | that not reduce the pool from which the illegal firearms
             | can be obtained?
             | 
             | Agreed it doesn't completely solve the issue, but could
             | make it significantly less likely that one would encounter
             | a firearm in general.
        
               | omginternets wrote:
               | Likely, yes. One of the practical difficulties in the US,
               | however, is that the pool has historically been
               | replenished by the trafficking of guns. So yes, reducing
               | the pool of available guns is _prima facie_ sensible, but
               | it takes a fair bit more than declaring guns illegal.
               | Further complicating the issue is the fact that guns have
               | a _very_ long service life. I have an FB Vis from 1942
               | that still works flawlessly, despite having seen years of
               | service in actual war. With ordinary care and the
               | replacement of high-wear parts (the extractor, mostly,
               | and maybe the barrel), I'd expect it to run at least
               | another 100k rounds.
               | 
               | The proposition to reduce gun violence by reducing the
               | number of guns in circulation has to account for the guns
               | already in circulation, and for the propensity of black
               | markets to introduce new guns into circulation.
               | Otherwise, the only thing achieved is the disarming of
               | the groups of people with legitimate uses for firearms.
               | 
               | It's not as simple as "guns are the problem", nor is it
               | as simple as "more guns are the solution", I'm afraid.
        
             | jfengel wrote:
             | Illegal guns start as legal guns. With both AI and guns you
             | need to be willing to think about the problem at every step
             | in the chain, not just at the end.
        
               | justrealist wrote:
               | > Illegal guns start as legal guns.
               | 
               | To be pedantic, there are very few actually _illegal
               | guns_. Mostly we are talking about crimes committed by
               | felons who have committed prior crimes are no longer
               | legally allowed access to firearms.
               | 
               | That same gun, if possessed by a non-felon, would be
               | legal.
               | 
               | I don't know if this is or isn't important to the
               | analogy, but I do think it applies.
        
         | goodpoint wrote:
         | Companies making AI like ChatGPT have agency. They should not
         | publish tools that generate false information.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | omginternets wrote:
       | Prediction: as a result of fake research and it's ilk (fake
       | credentials, fake trade-journal pubs, fake reviews, etc.), we
       | will observe a renewed interest in referrals and meatspace
       | networking. It will become correspondingly difficult for
       | outsiders to enter professional circles.
        
         | godelski wrote:
         | On the other hand, maybe we'll abandon peer review and return
         | to a pre 1950's like style? Everyone in ML just uses arxiv
         | because the field is moving so fast. All work is realistically
         | peer reviewed once it is out there. We treat conferences (more
         | important than journals) as very noisy signals. Unfortunately,
         | we still use those as metrics for completing degrees or hiring
         | people.
         | 
         | The way I would try to make this better is just to post to
         | OpenReview rather than arxiv or integrate the two. That way
         | discussions can be had on the works, in the open, and public.
        
           | jltsiren wrote:
           | I don't think ML is a good example, because it's an outlier
           | within an outlier.
           | 
           | CS is already a weird field, because it leans so heavily on
           | conference papers that see a single round of reviews. Journal
           | papers with multiple rounds of reviews are more common in
           | other STEM fields. Because of this difference, peer review in
           | CS is more focused on accepting/rejecting the paper than on
           | improving it.
           | 
           | And then the CS model breaks down in ML, which is far too
           | popular for its own good. There are too many people working
           | on the same topics, writing too many papers and submitting
           | them to too few conferences, which have too many people
           | attending. CS conferences are supposed to be more like
           | community meetings than formal conferences. Informal
           | discussions are the main point, but that doesn't scale beyond
           | a few hundred attendees.
        
           | stubybubs wrote:
           | It's easy to do this with anything in computer science as
           | others can implement or recreate whatever is being discussed
           | easily. Not so with a 6 month experiment with several groups
           | of humans, or even a 2 week one with rats.
        
             | godelski wrote:
             | This is not always true. ML has reproducibility issues
             | despite the status quo being open models. Even if we don't
             | include proprietary datasets there are still issues.
             | Compute is one issue, but we can even ignore that[0]. The
             | Lottery Ticket[1,2] plays a big role, in that you can just
             | get lucky. This really should have resulted in treating
             | benchmarks as weaker indicators but see other comments
             | about reviewing incentives. Another issue is that it is
             | status quo to optimize hyperparameters on test data and
             | this results in information leakage. While this won't
             | affect results of running a checkpoint there are issues in
             | reproducing the work. It also adds noise. Generative papers
             | also have a large issue in not showing random uncurated
             | samples, which introduces huge biases and we can argue this
             | is a reproducibility issue as you can't reproduce the
             | results show in the works. Anyone that's played with things
             | like Stable Diffusion (or any generative model) will be
             | familiar with this.
             | 
             | There are more nuanced issues and things that require
             | intimate domain knowledge to fully understand, but I wanted
             | to push back at this comment because I see a lot of people
             | just brush off reproducibility concerns by pointing to
             | GitHub. While it helps, it definitely doesn't make
             | reproducibility "easy" or concerns nonexistent.
             | 
             | [0] Sometimes we can't though as scaling has more effects
             | than obvious. e.g. GANs can't scale batch on a per GPU
             | level but scaling by multiple GPUs/nodes does give an
             | advantage in quality (not just training times). This is
             | non-obvious and many things can play a role.
             | 
             | [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.03635
             | 
             | [2] https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.08203
        
           | omginternets wrote:
           | I think peer review exists for reasons beyond building or
           | affirming the reputation of a scholar. In particular, it's
           | regarded as a filter for eliminating the very worst-quality
           | research. And judging from the manuscripts that came across
           | my desk when I was still in academia, I'd say it's performing
           | this particular duty reasonably well. As such, the connection
           | between AI fakery and peer-review isn't all that clear cut to
           | me.
           | 
           | I might expect the peer-review pipeline to become inundated
           | with _prima facie_ credible manuscripts, which would
           | overwhelm the reviewer's ability to process publications even
           | more than is already the case. At this point, I'd expect
           | scholarly reputation to become _even more_ important for
           | getting published, and I'd expect to see an increase in
           | signaling and other out-of-band communications (e.g. talking
           | about your draft at a conference). Critically, I'd expect
           | this to _generally_ avoid AI generated "studies", despite the
           | obvious drawbacks.
           | 
           | And moreover, I actually have serious reservations about the
           | project of purging the scientific landscape of informal
           | processes. While there are some obvious and notorious
           | drawbacks to the way things currently work, I am also wary of
           | top-down, "authoritarian high-modernist" (to borrow the turn
           | of phrase from James C. Scott's _Seeing Like a State_ )
           | projects in all their forms, especially in science. The
           | production of scientific knowledge is not pure technae; it
           | cannot be reduced to a well-behaved formula. A large part of
           | it is a craft requiring a significant share of informal
           | processes in order to be truly creative. But that is a
           | separate topic, and indeed, one might argue that doing away
           | with formal peer-review altogether would be a step in the
           | direction of informality.
           | 
           | So at the end of the day, I'm not convinced by any
           | predictions that relate the effects of AI on peer-review. I
           | think it could go either way :)
        
             | godelski wrote:
             | I mostly agree with your assessment of peer review, but
             | feel that it's gone too far. It's decades of metric hacking
             | going unresolved. My research area is ML and it is
             | definitely far out of hand. When I was in physics I'd
             | probably be closer to your statement. But right now we have
             | measurements that conclude "reviewers are good at
             | identifying bad papers, but bad at identifying good
             | papers." Either I think we need to accept more works (as
             | long as they are valid and useful) and/or reducing the
             | value of a top tier venue (which right now is top or none).
             | I think papers should get multiple rounds, as our goal is
             | to improve works, and submissions should always be rolling.
             | I think this can help, because I agree that peer review
             | _should_ be about eliminating the worst, not identifying
             | the best (far too difficult, and hundreds of years of
             | evidence).
             | 
             | I think one important thing that venues could do is host
             | data and code/tools for works. Harddrive space is rather
             | cheap now (especially with tax benefits and donations) and
             | can only result in high value to the community. The other
             | thing is having formats like OpenReview, where works can
             | continuously be discussed in the open. With authors and
             | others being able to defend/criticize/question works. But I
             | think there should be some filter, even if low, and rules
             | for control of quality.
             | 
             | For the most part, I do actually think getting rid of venue
             | based review would be a step in the right direction. I use
             | these words because I like to encourage the idea that open
             | publication still leads to peer reviewing. In ML a lot is
             | done with arxiv + twitter, I just think we should better
             | formalize this. It allows for a lot of freedom and for high
             | speed. It has problems, but I don't see them as any worse
             | than the current system (I see an overall decrease in
             | problems). Good science requires risks and a lot of
             | creativity. The modern word advantage is that we have
             | higher numbers of researchers and monte carlo sampling in
             | parallel helps optimize. You want to encourage tail end
             | samples too to escape local minima. The history of science
             | is a history of upsets. You don't get upsets by doing what
             | everyone is doing. I agree that top down hierarchies
             | discourage such thinking and are an overall net negative to
             | science and advancing human knowledge. Creativity is
             | critical.
             | 
             | For predictions, I agree. I lean towards predicting
             | disruption, but I'm not even certain of that. And
             | disruption can go many different ways. I'm glad we're
             | starting the discussions, but I think they need to be
             | deeper and more honest.
        
       | dsr_ wrote:
       | It might be time for a Research Web of Trust.
        
       | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
       | The problem is letting this be a step that directs our attention
       | in the first place:
       | 
       | > platform X published this so it must be good
       | 
       | It's a root-of-trust scheme, and those create high value targets
       | which fail to corruption. Better would be:
       | 
       | > human Y cited this, it's about Z, and you've configured Y to be
       | trusted in domain Z
       | 
       | Webs of trust require maintenance, which isn't convenient, but if
       | roots of trust continue to degrade in trustworthiness, then that
       | maintenance will eventually be a price worth paying.
        
         | gtop3 wrote:
         | The height of trust rot is Science publishing Woo Suk Hwang's
         | 2005 stem cell research. This was one of the top scientific
         | journals publishing research that appeared to be a nobel-prize
         | track line of research that would have been a breakthrough in
         | medical treatment. Instead it tainted a line of research.
         | 
         | The research results were fraudulent, claiming a much higher
         | success rate at generating a stem cell line than what was
         | achieved. They lied about the number of stem cell lines
         | generated, the number of oocytes used to generate the stem cell
         | lines, and the number of donors the oocytes came from.
         | 
         | As if bad data wasn't enough, they lied both to their donors,
         | lied about their donors, and miscredited authors.
        
           | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
           | I wasn't aware of the this kind of thing in 2005. How do you
           | think the trustworthiness of papers has been trending since
           | then, generally speaking. It sounds like that was a bit of an
           | outlier.
        
       | jxramos wrote:
       | There was an interesting claim I heard from Eric Weinstein
       | regarding peer review that he characterized as a cancerous
       | infiltration into all of science from some medical area? Aha,
       | found it in my notes...
       | 
       | """ 1:32:28 Eric: but let me jump in--peer review is a cancer
       | from outer space. It came from the biomedical community, it
       | invaded science. The old system, because I have to say this
       | because many people who are now professional scientists have an
       | idea that peer review has always been in our literature and it
       | absolutely [mff __ ] has not.
       | 
       | Bret: right
       | 
       | Eric: Okay. It used to be that the editor of a journal took
       | responsibility for the quality of the journal which is why we had
       | things like nature crop up in the first place because they had
       | courageous, knowledgeable, forward-thinking editors. And so I
       | just want to be very clear because there is a mind virus out
       | there that says peer review is the sine qua non of scientific
       | excellence, yada, yada, yada, bs, bs, bs. And if you don't
       | believe me go back and learn that this is a recent invasive
       | problem in the sciences.
       | 
       | Bret: recent invasive problem that has no justification for
       | existing in light of the fact
       | 
       | Eric: Well not only does it have no justification for existing...
       | When Watson and Crick did the double helix and this is the
       | cleanest example we have. The paper was agreed should not be sent
       | out for review because anyone who was competent would understand
       | immediately what its implications were. There are reasons that
       | great work cannot be peer-reviewed. Furthermore you have entire
       | fields that are existing now with electronic archives that are
       | not peer reviewed. Peer review is not peer review, it sounds like
       | peer review it is peer injunction. It is the ability for your
       | peers to keep the world from learning about your work.
       | 
       | Bret: keep the world from learning about your work.
       | 
       | Eric: because peer review is what happens, real peer review is
       | what happens after you've passed the bs thing called "peer
       | review". """ https://youtu.be/JLb5hZLw44s?t=5608
       | 
       | This is a fascinating bit of history to know about if true. I
       | wonder if anyone has ever documented the evolution of its
       | adoption across fields. This would be interesting too to see the
       | HN community react to this characterization. It was the first
       | time I ever heard of it from his wild interview with his brother.
        
       | luckydata wrote:
       | Andrew Huberman will remember this
        
       | MengerSponge wrote:
       | Spiderman pointing at spiderman.png
        
       | godelski wrote:
       | There's really only one solution to this. Luckily it is the same
       | solution to a lot of other things. Unluckily it is the same
       | solution that no one has sought to implement for decades.
       | Reviewing takes a lot of nuance, care, and time. You're not going
       | to get this when all the incentives for the reviewers are
       | currently to reject works. You can only get a group to work on
       | ethics alone when that group is small and accountable.
       | Incentivize the reviewers to be high quality and worthwhile work.
       | Incentivize the chairs to review the reviewers and force high
       | quality reviews. An expert paying close attention to a work makes
       | the papermill's job exponentially more difficult. It also just
       | makes the review process actually useful in the first place, as
       | it ensures authors get actual feedback.
        
         | noobermin wrote:
         | 1) You must therefore pay the reviewers. Probably a good
         | starting point.
         | 
         | 2) It is in fact, hard to publish things already in top
         | journals especially if you're not established. Given the fact
         | you also want the pool of reviewers to shrink, you're also
         | making difficulty of publishing works even harder. Yes, the
         | issue is paper mills, got it, but you're making it even harder
         | for sincere scientists who aren't part of a mill in doing this.
         | 
         | 3) The flood of work that will fall to the smaller, more
         | accountable group will require culling, which of course, the
         | top journals will cull the horde based on the biases they
         | already have: pedigree, which will further calcify the issues
         | in science and research already, or even intensify it.
        
           | godelski wrote:
           | 1) I mostly agree. There are at least other rewards that can
           | also be offered, such as conference discounts. There's also
           | the token system (pay tokens to submit works, receive tokens
           | for reviewing). But some incentive structure needs to happen,
           | agreed.
           | 
           | > especially if you're not established
           | 
           | This is commonly stated but I don't think many internalize
           | what it means. I don't think a meritocracy can exist -- this
           | indicator supports that -- and shows that there's strong
           | factors influencing acceptance beyond the quality of work.
           | 
           | 2) I do think we need to be very careful about how we sell
           | the prestige of publications/venues. As fields get more
           | popular and our metrics rely more on them (publish or perish)
           | then this not only encourages paper mills, but cheating in
           | general. As two simple examples, look at how ML publishes
           | works where papers use proprietary datasets/models (reveals
           | authors' lab and thus violates ethics), or how it is status
           | quo to tune hyperparameters on test data results (information
           | leakage). You're are a huge disadvantage if you don't cheat.
           | We have a similar problem in schools and this is why students
           | cheat. If it is hard to catch and bad actors aren't punished
           | (high risk because high false positive) then you actively
           | reward cheaters. This needs to be a serious conversation and
           | I don't think we are having this (this is several domains,
           | even outside academia).
           | 
           | 3) There's a coupling effect here though, that is pretty
           | destructive and can have bigger social ramifications. As the
           | noise in venue publication increases, the trust in the venue
           | decreases. But I think it increases first, as people are
           | metric chasing. But I suspect it'll be like a rubber band,
           | and snap back hard. The larger ramification is social trust
           | around science, where only the large venues matter and not
           | the small unknown journals. We already have a growing
           | distrust as the "just asking questions" anti-science strategy
           | has been growing, and we need to be pretty careful and think
           | beyond a local (spatially and temporally) window.
        
       | nologic01 wrote:
       | This is No.2 in the list of existential AI risks [1]
       | 
       | > A deluge of AI-generated misinformation and persuasive content
       | could make society less-equipped to handle important challenges
       | of our time.
       | 
       | One way to think about it as significant chunks of information
       | exchange turning into a _Market for Lemons_. Namely the
       | information asymmetry between the producer of AI junk and the
       | receiver of said junk means that the receiver cannot distinguish
       | between a high-quality message (a  "peach") and a zero (or
       | negative) value "lemon". Then receivers are only willing to pay a
       | fixed price for a message that averages the value of a "peach"
       | and "lemon". Given the zero marginal cost of producing junk, this
       | will mean that in the limit receivers will be willing to pay
       | exactly _zero_. Information exchange is completely discredited.
       | 
       | But is this really an "existential risk" or an opportunity to
       | think deeply about human relations, trust and the meaning of
       | exchange?
       | 
       | Maybe the transactional, "a fool is born every second", buyer
       | beware, caveat emptor society we have built was never fit-for-
       | purpose in the first place?
       | 
       | [1] https://www.safe.ai/ai-risk#Misinformation
       | 
       | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Market_for_Lemons
        
       | dmingod666 wrote:
       | Not even a mention of the galactica model. I suspect the author
       | probably isn't aware of its existence..
        
         | SiempreViernes wrote:
         | To be fair, it is stressful to keep track of all the faceplants
         | the new saviours perform
        
           | dmingod666 wrote:
           | Fair enough, but this was a major 'event' in both tech and
           | academic circles..
           | 
           | Funny that Nature publishes an article about fake papers and
           | fails to mention the one model specifically trained
           | exclusively on white paper to write (fake?) white papers..
        
         | dallasg3 wrote:
         | I didn't know what the Galactica Model was.
         | 
         | https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/18/1063487/meta-lar...
        
       | mohave529 wrote:
       | From my perspective as an outsider, I have always been amazed by
       | the use of papers in academic research as a means of
       | communicating findings to the wider world. I find it problematic
       | that these papers are often formatted in a way that makes them
       | highly unreadable, with two columns and compressed text. In my
       | opinion, adopting more modern methods of publishing research
       | could greatly enhance the overall quality of research by making
       | papers more accessible and increasing the likelihood of them
       | being read.
       | 
       | Imagine a scenario where there is a standardized format for
       | academic papers, where the conclusion is explicitly derived from
       | specific data and accompanied by confidence intervals. This
       | standardized schema would enable easier referencing of other
       | papers and easy incorporation of additional data through features
       | like autocomplete. Implementing such a system could potentially
       | reverse the trend of academic papers that use excessive and
       | unnecessary language to appear more intellectually rigorous, even
       | when the actual information being conveyed is limited.
       | 
       | By embracing these changes, we could create a more transparent
       | and efficient research environment that promotes clearer
       | communication and enhances the impact of academic findings.
        
         | jltsiren wrote:
         | Whatever you think academic research is, it's not always like
         | that, and it's usually easy to find counterexamples. That's why
         | the attempts to standardize the processes usually fail.
         | 
         | There is not necessarily any data behind the paper. Even if
         | there is data, the conclusions may not be about the data. Even
         | if the conclusions are about the data, the paper may not use
         | quantitative methods. Even if it uses quantitative methods,
         | confidence intervals may not make sense. Even if confidence
         | intervals do make sense, adding new data might not. And so on.
        
       | ftxbro wrote:
       | so the ai is making bad research papers honestly i don't know if
       | i like that more or less than if they were somehow doing amazing
       | research
        
       | LadyCailin wrote:
       | It feels like AI is exposing Kessler Syndrome for other areas -
       | that is, some small scale amount of junk isn't a problem
       | necessarily, but if you scale up that problem, it fundamentally
       | changes the thing for everyone permanently. I guess the jury is
       | still out whether it's net good or bad, but it feels like it's
       | going to force us to confront some fundamental issues we have in
       | society, which have perhaps always been there, but are now
       | unavoidable, and will demand quick societal change. That almost
       | never goes over well.
        
       | lacker wrote:
       | This seems like an extension of the replication crisis. In many
       | fields, most published research is already bogus. The idea that
       | peer review is enough to ensure that research is valid is perhaps
       | not scaling well.
       | 
       | It would be great to have things like open data sharing. At least
       | in astronomy, which I'm somewhat familiar with, it doesn't seem
       | like we're that close. Most scientists cannot even reproduce
       | their own results. It's common to use things like manual Jupyter
       | notebooks, unlabeled CSVs, and a bunch of disorganized data
       | files, in a one-off process that a scientist manually summarizes
       | to produce a paper.
       | 
       | To me, in an ideal world each paper would sit in a GitHub
       | repository, with an integration test that verifies the code
       | actually produces the results used in the paper. That isn't
       | really what academics prioritize, but perhaps things will move in
       | this direction as more people realize that we have a replication
       | crisis, and also as scientists tend to have more software
       | engineering skills over time.
        
         | jvanderbot wrote:
         | The unfortunate truth is that academic lineage matters. In a
         | world with decreasing SNR from paper content, the SNR from
         | finding the paper on a reliable researcher's homepage massively
         | increases (because sadly, people are added to papers without
         | their permission in an effort to boost their own signal).
        
         | RosanaAnaDana wrote:
         | I think if the data is valid, open access, and reproducible, it
         | shouldn't matter if the paper was written by AI.
        
           | mike_hearn wrote:
           | Unfortunately this assumes that the only thing which can go
           | wrong is lack of reproducibility. Not so. I read a lot of
           | public health papers during COVID and a staggering quantity
           | (IMHO nearly all of them) should not have been published;
           | many of them would have been reproducible despite that.
           | 
           | Other things that can and do regularly appear in
           | reproducible, peer reviewed papers:
           | 
           | * Nonsensical methodologies
           | 
           | * Logical fallacies
           | 
           | * Mis-representation of their data
           | 
           | * Incorrectly implemented software
           | 
           | * Source datasets that are cherry-picked
           | 
           | One might think that things like incorrectly implemented
           | software would fall under the umbrella of irreproducible
           | research, but that won't work. Some fields don't really
           | recognize a distinction between model implementation and
           | specification. The model _is_ the implementation and if a
           | description was once published it 's quite possibly either
           | too vague to implement, out of date, wrong, or all three.
           | IIRC Prof Neil Ferguson's team actually rejected an attempted
           | replication of one of their epidemic models on the basis that
           | only they were qualified to use it! Pseudo-science like this
           | goes unremarked in universities, only outsiders seem to care.
           | 
           | Sometimes you get an honest academic who knows what they're
           | supposed to do and actually does it, but there's no
           | observable benefit to them from doing so because the ones who
           | don't bother don't seem to suffer any consequences.
           | 
           | tl;dr The biggest problem with the replication crisis is the
           | framing of it as being about replication. What the world
           | actually faces is a misleading research crisis. You can drive
           | the replicability rate to 100% and you'll still find whole
           | fields consisting of logical fallacies and misinformation.
        
           | tga_d wrote:
           | The article says this:
           | 
           | > Kahn says that, although there will undoubtedly be positive
           | uses of AI to support researchers writing papers, it will
           | still be necessary to distinguish between legitimate papers
           | written with AI and those that have been completely
           | fabricated.
        
         | habitzreuter wrote:
         | (PhD student in STEM here) I think most people have the wrong
         | idea about what peer review is. My advisor teaches us to treat
         | it as a first check, but it is not a guarantee of correct
         | results.
         | 
         | Most of the time I spend on research is actually trying to
         | understand the literature and reproducing their results. If I
         | can't do it, it probably means I don't understand enough about
         | the work I'm reading, but there is also the small chance that
         | the published analysis is wrong, which already happened to me.
         | 
         | EDIT: typo.
        
           | BeetleB wrote:
           | Peer review cannot catch if they performed the procedure
           | correctly (e.g. in a lab), but it is there to check things
           | like:
           | 
           | - Validity of the experimental setup
           | 
           | - Validity of the statistical analysis methodology
           | 
           | - Validity of the conclusions
           | 
           | Take a look at the items in this comment:[1]
           | 
           | > Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects,
           | invalid exploratory analyses
           | 
           | All these can be caught with peer review.
           | 
           | > together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable trends
           | of dubious importance
           | 
           | In contrast, this problem is _intensified_ with peer review.
           | 
           | > In their quest for telling a compelling story, scientists
           | too often sculpt data to fit their preferred theory of the
           | world. Or they retrofit hypotheses to fit their data.
           | 
           | Not the role of peer review to catch these, but making your
           | data and analyses scripts open will allow these to be caught
           | by anyone who wishes to. The problem we have with current
           | publishing is that I could use this technique to get faulty
           | results, publish in a prestigious journal, get a 100
           | citations on my paper, and _one_ of those citations will be
           | from the person who looked at my data and saw obvious biases
           | in my selection (which cannot be caught by a mere peer
           | review). That one citation pointing out how wrong I am is
           | lost in the noise.
           | 
           | We need a way to highlight that citation - merely making a
           | simple graph of connections via references doesn't get us
           | there.
           | 
           | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36140540
        
           | gowld wrote:
           | Most people have the wrond idea about what publication is,
           | too. For almost all papers, for almost all readers, it
           | doesn't matter if results are correct. It's just part of the
           | game of academia. If you need to build something based on a
           | paper, and you need it to work correctly (so, outside of
           | public policy or macroeconomics), you need to do the work
           | yourself.
           | 
           | But if you just want to cite the work and write your own
           | paper on top of it, go ahead.
           | 
           | Published science is like ChatGPT ;-)
        
             | slt2021 wrote:
             | scientific publication is like a JIRA ticket.
             | 
             | to get visibility of your work you need to close JIRA
             | tickets, the more the better, since people look at
             | aggregate metrics.
             | 
             | The more your JIRA tickets are quoted in company
             | documentation the better.
             | 
             | but JIRA ticket is not code, in the same way publication is
             | not science
        
           | caddemon wrote:
           | It's never going to be a guarantee, but it's also implemented
           | very shittily at present. There's a difference between what
           | peer review is and what it should be. It makes sense to look
           | at it realistically in day to day practice, but in discussion
           | of systemic problems it should be viewed in a different
           | light.
        
         | matthewdgreen wrote:
         | I love the idea. But do be aware that the high-quality software
         | engineering like this will require has a cost: be prepared for
         | basic science costs to scale appropriately (or for productivity
         | to be reduced.) More to the point, not all science can be
         | usefully verified by unit tests. Even machine-verified
         | mathematical proofs are entirely dependent on the definitions
         | being correct, and that requires expert human analysis.
        
         | dndn1 wrote:
         | My instinct about numbers (i.e. incl. statistics) is that they
         | should be reproducible: on-demand, with results and workings
         | easily subjected to interrogation.
         | 
         | In reality in many fields - my experience is in finance, but
         | also in science - calculations are scattered across different
         | languages and systems. This adds friction to any process about
         | reproducing, understanding, analysing numbers.
         | 
         | This is some motivation for calculang, a language for
         | calculations I develop. https://github.com/calculang/calculang
         | 
         | For the HN crew it's an under-development(!) functional
         | language with properties to permit flexible designs that can
         | scale. It's for numbers and if you share the model alongside
         | your numbers people can check them according to the model and
         | see the workings.
         | 
         | It goes well with visual number [dev/person]tools that I will
         | release one of soon, and in the future watch for a browser
         | extension for the workings behind numbers you are reading.
         | 
         | Important, it won't address the raw data part of the problem,
         | but where numbers following from that are concerned, it might
         | get closer to that instinct.
        
         | lumost wrote:
         | The way academic research is setup is not currently conducive
         | to effective research. Research must intrinsically be allowed
         | to fail. If you incentivize success, then what happens when
         | someone is 2-4 years in and their only skill is apparently
         | worthless?
         | 
         | Without Tenure or the ability for a scientist to accumulate
         | their own savings, there is a strong incentive for most
         | scientists to charitably interpret results/papers to maintain
         | relevance.
        
         | mschuster91 wrote:
         | > Most scientists cannot even reproduce their own results. It's
         | common to use things like manual Jupyter notebooks, unlabeled
         | CSVs, and a bunch of disorganized data files, in a one-off
         | process that a scientist manually summarizes to produce a
         | paper.
         | 
         | The only way to get _that_ under control is if universities had
         | a career track of data scientists and programmers, basically a
         | shared resource pool of specialists that all researchers could
         | use. But most US universities seem to prefer to  "invest" their
         | endowments into professional athlete teams.
        
         | ftxbro wrote:
         | > "The idea that peer review is enough to ensure that research
         | is valid is perhaps not scaling well."
         | 
         | As others have said, this is not what peer review has ever been
         | for, at all. It only checks for gross omissions and violations
         | of form and syntax that are obvious to other scientists who are
         | in adjacent fields (not even necessarily the same one). It's a
         | relict from the times when publications were not target
         | metrics. Peer reviewers never replicate the work. If you are a
         | grad student tapped for peer review and you spend the time to
         | replicate the work, you are ruining your career and your
         | advisor will also be mad.
        
         | Salgat wrote:
         | It's ironic and deeply shameful when whitepapers side-step the
         | most fundamental aspect of the scientific method:
         | reproducibility.
        
         | noobermin wrote:
         | No offense, but astronomy is ripe for being rife with this sort
         | of thing because the validity of astronomical research doesn't
         | matter for the "real world" and can't really easily be tested.
         | I feel like it could be better, but since you guys do not have
         | any external pressures beyond yourselves (as academics), you
         | can still publish however you feel like.
         | 
         | A lot of the more applied fields cannot survive scrutiny.
         | Either you have to produce something that leads to a product or
         | something a PM will scrutinize (especially if you work for a
         | national lab or the like, or for pharma, and so on). There, a
         | lot of published research might be bogus, but it is nowhere
         | near the majority.
        
           | gtop3 wrote:
           | Astronomy is fantastic for preventing this type of fraud.
           | 
           | The data is incredibly open. Anyone can download datasets
           | from telescopes, or build their own. Papers built on invalid
           | data can be refuted by simply pointing telescopes at the
           | location the paper is lying about. There are very few
           | possible discoveries or theories in an astronomy journal that
           | would immediately impact the wider culture.
           | 
           | Compare astronomy to sociology, in which questionnaire
           | results can be fabricated and are essentially unconformable
           | without using other unconformable questionnaires. Compare
           | astronomy to economics, which the articles can be used
           | bolster political positions.
        
         | mycologos wrote:
         | It might help to expand on "bogus". Bogus has a few levels,
         | going from "not good, but possible from a well-intentioned
         | author trying to do the right thing" (low-level bogus) to
         | "outright deception" (high-level bogus). Small sample sizes,
         | statistical errors, and flawed (but honest) experiment design
         | are all, I suggest, low-level bogus. Faking data and plagiarism
         | are high-level bogus.
         | 
         | I think peer review is capable of, eventually, mitigating low-
         | level bogus. The quantitative standards in fields where low-
         | level bogus is a problem (e.g., but definitely not only,
         | medicine) are rising. Peer review is not a scalable solution to
         | high-level bogus. Figuring out high-level bogus seems to be
         | almost a full-time job [1]. You cannot expect this level of
         | effort from researchers, especially if they are reviewing for
         | free; I would even argue that it's easier to fake data than to
         | figure out it's fake. It also requires more expertise to assess
         | quality research than to write a low-level bogus paper and
         | submit it. There's a mismatch here. There are not enough expert
         | reviewers to handle all the low-level bogus papers.
         | 
         | The solution therefore seems to require some kind of
         | reputational component. There needs to be a cost to engaging in
         | high-level bogus. But this is a hard problem. Do you ban any
         | lead author of a paper with demonstrated high-level bogus?
         | Publicize their names? Ban _any_ author of a paper with
         | demonstrated high-level bogus? Throttle the submissions any one
         | person can make to a conference /journal at a time? I don't
         | know. But the current model will have to change.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://www.ft.com/content/32440f74-7804-4637-a662-6cdc8f3fb...
        
           | caddemon wrote:
           | It's also possible to be functionally bogus while doing
           | everything 100% by the book. If you control things super well
           | you can inadvertently make your result so narrow that it's
           | basically meaningless, at least with the way the scientific
           | system functions today. If people worked together in a more
           | concrete way to build on prior results this effect might not
           | be so bad.
           | 
           | One of my favorite examples is a mouse study that did not
           | replicate between two genetically identical mouse populations
           | raised in the same conditions run by the same lab. The
           | difference was the supplier the two sets of mice originally
           | came from, and the researchers were able to pin down the
           | cause as differences in the gut microbiome between the two
           | (and in fact one particular bacterial strain). That is an
           | example of great research, but the vast majority of studies
           | will never catch something like this before they publish
           | because they will only use one mouse supplier as they keep
           | things controlled while minimizing costs.
           | 
           | Because designed replication studies are fairly rare and
           | people often do not officially publish when they find things
           | that don't replicate in biology, we are approaching
           | interpretation/downstream use of these highly controlled
           | studies in an extremely inefficient way.
           | 
           | But that isn't really the fault of individual researchers.
           | Technically they're applying the scientific method correctly
           | to their niche problem. It's the definition of the problem
           | coupled with how we combine results across groups that causes
           | the inefficiencies. As problems of interest increase in
           | complexity we can't define them on the scale of individual
           | labs anymore, and for some reason we've addressed it by
           | breaking them up into subproblems in this homogeneous way.
           | Then we just assume that piecing together the little results
           | will work great...
           | 
           | Anyways, I agree there is also straight up fraud and
           | blatantly bad practices on the level of individual papers,
           | it's definitely a continuum. Sometimes such bad results slip
           | into the mainstream of science or even have a huge impact on
           | subsequent funding directions like with the fabricated
           | amyloid beta paper. But I do suspect that for the most part
           | the blatantly bad work stays on the fringes, and the largest
           | negative impact on scientific productivity actually comes
           | from a level of abstraction up.
        
         | CobrastanJorji wrote:
         | Imagine a world where all the raw data sits in a public
         | repository next to a script to process the data which was
         | reviewed as part of the publication process, which would
         | accompany the paper and could be quickly and easily replicated
         | with new data. Anyone could produce the graphs shown in the
         | paper simply by downloading both and running them together.
         | What a wonderful thing that would be. And you could imagine the
         | government funding the storing and serving of all the data.
         | What a wonderful daydream of an idea.
        
           | jxramos wrote:
           | seems attainable, doesn't sound far fetched technically.
           | Maybe get a few universities to start the trend.
        
           | venv wrote:
           | Even this would require somehow verifying the raw data. It's
           | plausible a bad actor could "reverse engineer" their data
           | from a pre-determined conclusion.
           | 
           | But yes, overall more openness is good. Still, the cost
           | losing trust in society is very high (as you need to verify
           | everything).
        
             | ChainOfFools wrote:
             | > It's plausible a bad actor could "reverse engineer" their
             | data from a pre-determined conclusion.
             | 
             | I've already heard of someone planning a product (
             | initially targeted at lazy^H^H^H^Hbusy high schoolers and
             | undergrads) that will use AI to reverse discover citations
             | that fit a predetermined narrative in a research paper.
             | Write whatever the hell you want, and the AI will do its
             | best to backsolve a pile of citations that support your
             | unsourced claims and arguments. The founder, and I use that
             | term very generously, expects the academic community to net
             | support this because it will boost citation counts for the
             | vast majority of low citation, low visibility works.
        
           | reprociboi wrote:
           | Some journals in fact implement this idea (e.g. having the
           | raw data underlying each figure one click away). That is
           | however not the crux of the reproducibility crisis; it would
           | be great if it was just "I can't make an exact copy of
           | Supplementary Figure 5D", but rather "I can't confirm that
           | protein X causes dementia using orthogonal techniques". There
           | is no easy code fix for that problem.
        
           | simonw wrote:
           | Funding the storing and serving of all of that data doesn't
           | sound like a difficult problem to me. That has gotten SO
           | cheap over the past couple of decades. There are plenty of
           | well funded institutions that can support that kind of
           | resource.
        
             | jrumbut wrote:
             | You'd be surprised. One headache there is what did you tell
             | study participants you would do with the data?
             | 
             | Did you say you'd keep it forever? Did you say 5 years?
             | Who's in charge of making sure that this centralized
             | repository isn't inappropriately holding and distributing
             | data?
             | 
             | Funding organizations also have different requirements.
             | 
             | Then a script is only useful if paired with a set of
             | libraries of a particular version, a specific
             | compiler/interpreter, an OS, also there may be specialized
             | hardware involved. Some of the languages used in science
             | like SAS, Stata, SPSS, and Matlab, etc aren't free and open
             | source so you can't always just bundle it.
             | 
             | And even data storage isn't trivial. For a recent small
             | conference abstract I processed ~150GB of data. Hundreds
             | (thousands? Tens of thousands?) of other papers have looked
             | at that same data. You would really want some way to
             | deduplicate that storage, but that introduces some
             | additional complexity.
             | 
             | I do like this vision but I think it would be a major
             | undertaking that would require a lot of well funded
             | institutions coming together rather than any one in
             | particular doing it on their own.
        
           | noobermin wrote:
           | I hate to be sincere, but the reality is the data is our
           | product. If we open source our data too much, we won't have
           | anything left to publish as others who would have to expend
           | nowhere near the resources we must do to produce it can
           | scrape it and publish it. (that literally is how "AI" of the
           | current hype bubble works today, lol, why would I want that
           | online?)
           | 
           | The incentives are definitely bad, and that's where the
           | actual fix should be.
        
             | diognesofsinope wrote:
             | If any level of government funds your institution you
             | should have to releases the data.
             | 
             | The code I write is not my code, it's the banks.
        
               | caddemon wrote:
               | If that happened it would indirectly change the
               | incentives anyway, because everyone would start being
               | required to release data, so bad practices that are
               | currently incentivized would become impossible.
               | 
               | However I think it would be better to directly
               | incentivize data release rather than require it, at least
               | in biomedical sciences. Because of patient privacy issues
               | there is no way raw data release can be required across
               | the board. And I certainly do not trust the NIH to come
               | up with a coherent set of rules for when it is versus
               | isn't allowed, which would mean loopholes and more
               | corruption.
        
               | ChainOfFools wrote:
               | Most projects are funded by a patchwork of different
               | sources, not all of which would agree to the same terms
               | of release of the information, but all of which are
               | required sufficiently fund its creation. Not to mention
               | maintaining ongoing storage and accessibility. single
               | source government grants for scientific research are the
               | exception, not the rule.
        
               | [deleted]
        
         | JacobThreeThree wrote:
         | The current scientific system has long been known to have
         | serious problems of incorrect results and conflicts of
         | interest. This article seems like an attempt to pin the crisis
         | on an AI scapegoat.
         | 
         | From 2015, the Editor of The Lancet:
         | 
         |  _The case against science is straightforward: much of the
         | scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue.
         | Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects,
         | invalid exploratory analyses, and flagrant conflicts of
         | interest, together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable
         | trends of dubious importance, science has taken a turn towards
         | darkness. As one participant put it, "poor methods get
         | results". The Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Research
         | Council, and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research
         | Council have now put their reputational weight behind an
         | investigation into these questionable research practices. The
         | apparent endemicity of bad research behaviour is alarming. In
         | their quest for telling a compelling story, scientists too
         | often sculpt data to fit their preferred theory of the world.
         | Or they retrofit hypotheses to fit their data. Journal editors
         | deserve their fair share of criticism too. We aid and abet the
         | worst behaviours. Our acquiescence to the impact factor fuels
         | an unhealthy competition to win a place in a select few
         | journals. Our love of "significance" pollutes the literature
         | with many a statistical fairy-tale. We reject important
         | confirmations. Journals are not the only miscreants.
         | Universities are in a perpetual struggle for money and talent,
         | endpoints that foster reductive metrics, such as high-impact
         | publication. National assessment procedures, such as the
         | Research Excellence Framework, incentivise bad practices. And
         | individual scientists, including their most senior leaders, do
         | little to alter a research culture that occasionally veers
         | close to misconduct._
         | 
         | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
        
           | tga_d wrote:
           | How do you see this as scapegoating? The headline
           | specifically says "intensifies", the article very clearly
           | positions AI-fabricated data as an extension of existing
           | problems, and I don't see anything in the article downplaying
           | those existing problems (the entire closing section is about
           | how the summit was on issues broader than AI).
        
             | mike_hearn wrote:
             | Nature's reporting on the problem of paper mills is
             | surprisingly high quality and honest, given that these
             | reports directly attack the credibility of Nature itself
             | (and many other journals).
        
       | huijzer wrote:
       | Instead of fighting against "paper mills", let's fight against
       | journals. There are strong arguments against the need for peer-
       | review for example [1]. Science does not get worse when there are
       | more bad papers, science gets better when there are more good
       | papers. Most papers in AI aren't even reviewed by peers or editor
       | and guess what: we have lots of progress happening. I'm not
       | saying that is because the lack of review, I'm saying that
       | reviews are not necessary for progress. Furthermore, was the
       | iPhone good because it was reviewed by a board of "independent"
       | reviewers? No it wasn't. Let's just ignore Nature. Good papers
       | are good because they have good arguments and if they are not
       | good, then time will tell. Papers are not good simply because
       | Nature (TM) put a stamp on it.
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.experimental-history.com/p/science-is-a-
       | strong-l...
        
         | noobermin wrote:
         | Let's be real, there are a lot of papers in AI right now
         | because it's been hot, not just recently but for years. Still,
         | no one is reading random papers from _insert-unknown-group-
         | here_. People read papers from already established scientists
         | who have pedigree. And, how did they become established?
         | Because they actually published before arxiv.
         | 
         | In that sense, peer review should be an equalizer, because the
         | only way to be read and cited then is to have the holy academic
         | lineage, which is what would happen if we abolished peer-review
         | as it exists in the current academic word we're in.
        
         | artursapek wrote:
         | I forget which episode, but Andrew Huberman discussed somewhere
         | how the incentives behind getting published in science journals
         | and the peer review process often lead to poor studies.
        
         | ethanbond wrote:
         | The cases you mentioned have clear and immediate commercial
         | incentives that push them toward quality. Not quite so for
         | basic research that might (optimistically) be decades away from
         | commercialization and will probably be commercialized from
         | someone very very far away in the value chain from the original
         | researcher.
         | 
         | FWIW I'm also really critical of peer review/journals, just
         | don't think this is a great line of analogy.
        
           | SQueeeeeL wrote:
           | I've found most people who are deeply critical of peer review
           | as a process (and not just how shady modern journals are)
           | have never engaged in serious scientific work. They have no
           | idea how lost in the weeds researchers can get, and how
           | useful having a somewhat uninformed 3rd party see if they can
           | parse your prose is for having a work be understandable.
           | Commercialization really only applies to a very small subset
           | of scientific discoveries
        
         | CobrastanJorji wrote:
         | No, science definitely goes worse when there are more bad
         | papers.
         | 
         | There's a popular argument about freedom of speech that comes
         | down to "the solution to bad speech is more good speech, not
         | limiting bad speech," but that only works (assuming it's true
         | at all) when there's some way for a listener to discern truth
         | with some research or effort.
         | 
         | > "Good papers are good because they have good arguments"
         | 
         | No they are not. Good papers are good when they collected data
         | correctly and then presented the results fairly. Arguments
         | about what that data means hardly enters into it. You can't
         | argue whether the data is correct or not without gathering it
         | yourself, and you can't gather it yourself.
        
           | huijzer wrote:
           | > There's a popular argument about freedom of speech that
           | comes down to "the solution to bad speech is more good
           | speech, not limiting bad speech," but that only works
           | (assuming it's true at all) when there's some way for a
           | listener to discern truth with some research or effort.
           | 
           | Yes exactly. If it is too hard for a group of scientists to
           | figure out a flaw, then it is also too hard for two peer
           | reviewers to figure out a flaw. Only time can detect all
           | errors in science, assuming that nonconformist papers are
           | allowed into the conversation.
           | 
           | > Good papers are good when they collected data correctly and
           | then presented the results fairly.
           | 
           | This is only true for empirical papers. Good data is a part
           | of a good argument in the case of empirical papers.
        
             | notahacker wrote:
             | > If it is too hard for a group of scientists to figure out
             | a flaw, then it is also too hard for two peer reviewers to
             | figure out a flaw.
             | 
             | The issue isn't that flawed papers are necessarily hard to
             | spot, the issue is that indiscriminate publishing means
             | that anyone studying a topic has to wade through a lot of
             | flawed ones before they find anything halfway useful. Time
             | and attention are finite. Peer review and journals caring
             | about reputation, in theory, caps the number of readers of
             | rubbish papers at 2 (and disincentivises writing
             | unpublishable crap to submit in the first place... although
             | this is now eroded since generating rubbish papers is now
             | effort-free)
        
           | cortesoft wrote:
           | Yeah, the problem with that "more speech" argument is the
           | imbalance... lies are way easier and faster to generate than
           | truth, and can be crafted perfectly to play on what the
           | audience wants to hear. The truth has to be the truth, so it
           | can't be crafted in the same way.
        
           | stale2002 wrote:
           | > You can't argue whether the data is correct or not without
           | gathering it yourself, and you can't gather it yourself.
           | 
           | You actually can argue about the data being "correct".
           | 
           | The way to do is, is studies need to be much more radically
           | open with their raw data sources.
           | 
           | In AI, that would mean actually releasing the code you used,
           | so people can try it themselves.
           | 
           | Or, in more sociology stuff, where you are doing, I don't
           | know, interviews with humans, you could release the physical
           | videos of your interviews.
           | 
           | And then for science stuff, show pictures/vidoes of the
           | science you are doing.
           | 
           | I'm sure there would still be way to hack this. But
           | significant more code and data transparency would do a huge
           | amount for allowing other people to replicate or verify your
           | work.
        
         | eldaisfish wrote:
         | This line of thinking is dangerous and ignores very real
         | problems as the other comments point out.
         | 
         | Instead of targeting peer-review, i recommend approaching this
         | problem as one of incentives. Under the current system, what is
         | the incentive for a reviewer to read and critique a paper?
         | None. If they were paid in cash, there is a clear incentive.
         | The publishers do not want this overheard and the associated
         | legal requirements so they seek out "volunteers" and
         | "compensate" them with rubbish like book copies and
         | "reputation". The fault is with publishers, not the peer-review
         | process.
         | 
         | At the moment, the current model allows parasites like Elsevier
         | to derive the maximum benefit while not paying most folks
         | involved in creating the actual value - the reviewers, editors
         | and authors.
         | 
         | Citizen journalism tried this, failed and is now hollowing out
         | established journalism. We need proper funding and proper
         | incentives for journalism just as we need proper incentives for
         | academic research.
        
           | jltsiren wrote:
           | The incentives of paid peer review would not be easy to get
           | right. Especially if you want the compensation to be high
           | enough that it would actually be an incentive to the
           | reviewer.
           | 
           | Many universities limit the number of hours their faculty can
           | commit to paid external activities. Paid peer review would be
           | one of those activities, and it would have to compete against
           | other activities. Such as consulting, which can be very
           | lucrative in some fields.
           | 
           | So maybe you have to pay $10k peer review fee when you submit
           | a paper. And then it gets rejected after the first round of
           | reviews, because you aimed too high or the editor and the
           | reviewers just didn't like the topic. You resubmit to another
           | journal and pay another $10k. After a couple of additional
           | rounds of reviews ($5k each), the journal seems to be
           | interested in publishing the paper. But reviewer 2 wants you
           | to cite some of their papers that are not really that
           | relevant. Do you agree, or do you argue against and risk
           | another round of reviews (another $5k)? Or maybe you get the
           | feeling that reviewer 3 is stalling the process with
           | superficial requirements, as they get easy money from the
           | reviews.
           | 
           | Except that most academics can't afford that. American
           | academics are massively overpaid by global standards, and
           | peer review would naturally be outsourced to developing
           | countries, where the expectations of pay are more reasonable.
           | Many of the academics there are reputable, after all.
           | Unfortunately the institutional culture is often more
           | problematic, and corruption also tends to be more prevalent.
           | Do we really want to let those institutions shape the
           | practices of science worldwide?
           | 
           | One of the unfortunate features of capitalism is that being a
           | middleman is more profitable than doing the actual work.
           | Instead of a system where you pay $x for reviews, we could
           | end up with one where you pay $1.1x to a middleman, who then
           | pays $0.8x for the reviews. The middlemen get even richer
           | than in the current system, because there is more money in
           | publishing than there used to be.
        
             | eldaisfish wrote:
             | This makes a good point but is largely a strawman. Review
             | fees do not need to be this high. At $ 25 an hour, most
             | engineering papers take about 2-5 hours to review. That's $
             | 125 per reviewer or $ 500 for three reviewers, one editor
             | and another $ 500 for publication fees. That's $ 1,000 in
             | total and the number of reviewers can be fewer.
             | 
             | At the moment, greed drives open access publication fees.
             | Journals charge thousands of dollars because they can.
             | There is no logical justification of the cost. There are
             | several journals that charge hundreds of euros for review
             | although they do not pay reviewers.
             | 
             | Note also that not all review needs to be done by
             | academics. folks in industry can contribute equally but
             | their employer pays for their time so that boils down to
             | altruism or business priorities. A reasonable payment for
             | time creates an incentive for the world beyond academia and
             | this is a net positive. The payment does not need to be
             | prohibitive, just enough that the reviewer has an incentive
             | to do a good job and isn't pressured to rush. The problem
             | thus is not limited to the journals or the peer review
             | process but inventives.
        
               | jltsiren wrote:
               | I was thinking more about something like $200 to
               | $500/hour.
               | 
               | A small payment like $200 can be more of a disincentive
               | than an incentive. You have to deal with bureaucracy to
               | get paid and more bureaucracy to pay taxes for it. And if
               | the money comes from a foreign source, amount of the
               | compliance bureaucracy can be absurd. Getting paid is
               | simply not worth it, if the payment is too small.
        
         | malikNF wrote:
         | I understand how journals made sense during a time when
         | distribution was a hard problem. Now with the internet I don't
         | get the reason for them to exist in the form it does in 2023.
        
           | probably_wrong wrote:
           | A journal is a way of ensuring that the paper you are about
           | to read meets a minimum standard of quality. My anecdote: the
           | second worst paper I've ever read was an ArXiv paper,
           | presented by a young researcher who had no idea of how bad
           | this paper was, Had I not teared it down (which was a very
           | unpleasant experience for everyone involved) it would have
           | been further propagated by other young researchers. And the
           | worst paper? Submitted to a conference, rejected outright
           | during review, and I still wonder if someone was trying to
           | sneak a machine-generated article for fun.
           | 
           | No one has the time to keep up with all the research coming
           | out, not to mention all the fake research published in bad
           | faith. Life is not restricted to Elsevier and ArXiv, and
           | there are sane alternatives out there.
        
         | webnrrd2k wrote:
         | Re: "Science does not get worse when there are more bad
         | papers"...
         | 
         | I don't think that this is true at all. Weeding through bad
         | papers is, at a minimum, an opportunity cost, as is a good
         | paper built on top of a bad one.
         | 
         | Also, there is a societal cost in that bad research can get
         | picked up and believed by people, like the anti-vax crowd. Or,
         | bad research can be used to push an agenda, like anti-climate
         | change.
        
           | mschuster91 wrote:
           | > Also, there is a societal cost in that bad research can get
           | picked up and believed by people, like the anti-vax crowd.
           | Or, bad research can be used to push an agenda, like anti-
           | climate change.
           | 
           | Responsible media would act as a gatekeeper. The problem is,
           | most media utterly _gutted_ scientific journalists for more
           | profit, so they completely lack the basis to evaluate and
           | supply context on research. Others, particularly boulevard
           | media, willfully ignore any kind of ethics for clicks.
           | 
           | On top of that comes a general media illiteracy and media
           | distrust that makes it even harder to combat because there's
           | an awful lot of media that _thrives_ on intentionally pushing
           | crap to people.
        
           | SantalBlush wrote:
           | You are correct. Many people want research to work like a
           | social media site where everyone can contribute, believing
           | this is an egalitarian--and therefore better--solution. In
           | reality, it would slow research to a crawl, as noise and
           | conflicted interests dominate the conversation and drown out
           | more rigorous or valuable information.
        
             | huijzer wrote:
             | > noise and conflicted interests dominate the conversation
             | and drown out more rigorous or valuable information.
             | 
             | That's actually a great point. Who says this isn't already
             | the case? There isn't much evidence to suggest that things
             | have gotten better after the Why Most Published Research
             | Findings Are False paper in 2005. I think people should be
             | extremely skeptical of anything they read, irregardless of
             | a peer review stamp.
        
               | SantalBlush wrote:
               | >I think people should be extremely skeptical of anything
               | they read
               | 
               | This is a mistake that many HN readers make; they think
               | that if one is equipped with some above-average level of
               | intelligence, one can discern the validity of new
               | research. But this is wrong. It usually takes many years
               | of study before one can begin to clearly understand what
               | is even being said, let alone whether it has any
               | veracity.
               | 
               | People of above-average intelligence often resent this
               | fact, because it suggests that their smart opinion isn't
               | as valuable as the opinion of an expert, but that is
               | simply a sad fact of life. If they haven't put in the
               | work in that field, then they don't know what they're
               | talking about in that field, and they are incapable of
               | applying skepticism in that field correctly. This is
               | precisely and unfortunately why we are forced to place
               | our trust in experts.
        
               | mike_hearn wrote:
               | In practice that's not the case. Maybe for some fields it
               | is, but there are definitely plenty of fields where
               | minimal expertise is required to do basic sanity checks
               | of a paper. And there are many generic 'tells' that are
               | indicative of issues across a wide range of fields, e.g.
               | if a paper is reporting mostly P = 0.049 results, well
               | ...
               | 
               | As an example of an issue that doesn't require much
               | expertise to spot, I was reading a health paper a couple
               | of days ago that reported on an intervention in a
               | specific population. The paper said words to the effect
               | of "[the intervention] was effective, especially for
               | men". The associated chart not only had (somehow?!) got a
               | legend that didn't match the actual chart lines, but
               | whilst the line for men did indeed go down the line for
               | women was very clearly flat! This should have been
               | reported as "no effect in women but an effect in men" but
               | wasn't. When the wording doesn't match the data being
               | reported, that's a good sign in any field that the
               | researchers know they're treading on thin ice. That
               | particular claim was a correlation/causation fallacy
               | anyway, which is _very_ common in health. They didn 't
               | have any proof it was their intervention causing the
               | reduction and there were a bunch of reasons to suspect it
               | wasn't. But the intervention was long term and high
               | effort so it's not a surprise they wanted to find
               | something.
        
               | SantalBlush wrote:
               | This is a great example of what I'm talking about.
               | P-values of 0.049 is not a "tell"; that is an HN meme.
               | You can have p-values above 5 percent and the paper can
               | still convey novel and valid research, depending on the
               | nature of the study. The 5-percent value is a common
               | cutoff, but it is a largely arbitrary one. Sometimes
               | there is justification for a higher one, and sometimes it
               | should be lower.
               | 
               | To gauge what sort of p-value suggests a useful model
               | requires familiarity with the area and the broader
               | context of the research.
        
               | mike_hearn wrote:
               | That's the point - it's an arbitrary cutoff, so the high
               | frequency with which results cluster around that point is
               | indicative of a problem.
               | 
               | If a field accepts P=0.05 as significant it means 1 in 20
               | results can be false positives just by random chance. Now
               | think about how many papers get published, and many of
               | them report more than one thing. The right threshold
               | should really be an order of magnitude lower. It's not OK
               | for scientists to report FPs at that rate, and that's a
               | big part of the reason for declining confidence in
               | science.
        
               | SantalBlush wrote:
               | >If a field accepts P=0.05 as significant it means 1 in
               | 20 results can be false positives just by random chance.
               | 
               | That is not the correct interpretation of a p-value. See
               | the ASA's statement on p-values.[0]
               | 
               | >Researchers often wish to turn a p-value into a state-
               | ment about the truth of a null hypothesis, or about the
               | probability that random chance produced the observed
               | data. The p-value is neither. It is a statement about
               | data in relation to a specified hypothetical explanation,
               | and is not a statement about the explanation itself.
               | 
               | Moreover, while it's fine to suspect that p-hacking took
               | place with p-values just under 5 percent, it is merely a
               | suspicion and nothing more. Throwing out p-values you
               | don't like without further evidence is a different sort
               | of violation of the methodology; it is like p-hacking in
               | the other direction.
               | 
               | >The right threshold should really be an order of
               | magnitude lower.
               | 
               | This is false. Again, see the ASA's statement.[0]
               | 
               | >Practices that reduce data analysis or scientific infer-
               | ence to mechanical "bright-line" rules (such as "p <
               | 0.05") for justifying scientific claims or conclusions
               | can lead to erroneous beliefs and poor decision making. A
               | conclusion does not immediately become "true" on one side
               | of the divide and "false" on the other. Researchers
               | should bring many contextual factors into play to derive
               | scientific inferences, including the design of a study,
               | the quality of the measurements, the external evidence
               | for the phenomenon under study, and the validity of
               | assumptions that underlie the data analysis. Pragmatic
               | considerations often require binary, "yes-no" decisions,
               | but this does not mean that p-values alone can ensure
               | that a decision is correct or incorrect. The widespread
               | use of "statistical significance" (generally interpreted
               | as "p & 0.05") as a license for making a claim of a
               | scientific finding (or implied truth) leads to
               | considerable distor- tion of the scientific process.
               | 
               | In short, these things often require a strong statistical
               | literacy to interpret, which most people complaining
               | about p-hacking do not possess.
               | 
               | [0]https://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/0003130
               | 5.2016...
        
               | venv wrote:
               | Maybe, but it would still be better if the situation
               | didn't detoriate further.
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | This depends heavily on the field.
             | 
             | In many cases results can easily be independently verified.
             | This is why it works for AI. If you publish a result, it
             | should come with code anybody can run. If the code doesn't
             | exist or doesn't do what you say it does, you're a fool and
             | everyone can ignore you. If it does, you don't need
             | anyone's stamp of approval to prove it.
             | 
             | But that doesn't work with medical trials or things of that
             | nature where independently verifying the claims is
             | expensive.
        
           | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
           | > Weeding through bad papers
           | 
           | How does one come across these bad papers in the first place,
           | such that they must be weeded through? Maybe we need a
           | different method of curation such that they stay below the
           | noise floor.
        
           | AnthonyMouse wrote:
           | The solution to this is reputation. The flaw is that we're
           | using the reputation of for-profit journals rather than the
           | research institutions.
           | 
           | You shouldn't have confidence in a paper because it was
           | published in Nature, you should have confidence in it because
           | it was published by Harvard or the University of California
           | or Google Research, who puts the name of their institution on
           | it and thereby stakes their reputation. For the preeminent
           | researchers in a field, their own names may be enough for
           | people in that field to trust the result.
           | 
           | You can still have a paper published by nobody, and if the
           | results are interesting, researchers at known institutions
           | can try to replicate it. Until then it's nothing. But if they
           | do, the nobody gets cited and credited with being the first
           | and takes a step to building their own reputation, and the
           | known institution gets credited with knowing when to spend
           | resources following up on something significant.
        
             | notahacker wrote:
             | The research institutes are also for profit bodies, just
             | much more of an closed shop because there's only so many
             | people they can employ at any one time (and that's before
             | we even get into tenure or the fact all you're really doing
             | is shifting the peer review burden onto people that report
             | into the person that wrote the paper).
             | 
             | You can have papers published by Google Research or by
             | nobody now: turns out academics like the journals' attempts
             | to curate interesting stuff more than only ever reading
             | stuff on their bookmark list or that's mailed to them in a
             | desperate attempt to get some engagement. And for all that
             | they might not like the long delays and low chance of
             | success associated with submitting to Nature, they like the
             | idea of trying to persuade an academic at an elite
             | institution to go to the trouble of replicating their
             | research as the only means to build their reputation even
             | less...
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | > The research institutes are also for profit bodies
               | 
               | Their business model isn't to put the research behind a
               | paywall, which is the relevant distinction.
               | 
               | > turns out academics like the journals' attempts to
               | curate interesting stuff more than only ever reading
               | stuff on their bookmark list or that's mailed to them in
               | a desperate attempt to get some engagement.
               | 
               | This is what conferences are for, and then you have the
               | conference organizers curating the talks but everyone
               | gets the list of talks and links to all the freely
               | available papers even if they can't afford to attend the
               | conference.
        
         | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
         | >> Most papers in AI aren't even reviewed by peers or editor
         | and guess what: we have lots of progress happening.
         | 
         | If by progress you mean a constant creep of SOTA on meaningless
         | benchmarks, then yeah, we have "progress", but that progress is
         | a strange kind of progress that is measured only on its own,
         | self-selected criteria, and that does nothing to advance the
         | total sum of knowledge. The main beneficiaries of this
         | "progress" are large technology corporations who have now taken
         | over research in AI and are turning it to profit. There has
         | definitely been proress in money-making schemes and personal
         | aggrandisement schemes of charlatans and mountebanks, in AI,
         | aplenty.
         | 
         | If by progress you meant scientific progress, then, no, there
         | has been none of that in recent years. It is questionable if
         | there has ever been any kind of scientific progress associated
         | with AI. While early pioneers of AI, like John McCarthy and
         | Claude Shannon, wished to establish a scientific programme of
         | research in human and machine intelligence, with the purpose of
         | understanding the former by developing the latter, this
         | programme was soon set aside, and activity concentrated instead
         | in what McCarthy used to call the "look ma, no hands disease of
         | AI":
         | 
         | >> Much work in AI has the ``look ma, no hands'' disease.
         | Someone programs a computer to do something no computer has
         | done before and writes a paper pointing out that the computer
         | did it. The paper is not directed to the identification and
         | study of intellectual mechanisms and often contains no coherent
         | account of how the program works at all.
         | 
         | http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/reviews/lighthill/lighthi...
         | 
         | And this is where we still are today. AI is no science.
        
       | ushtaritk421 wrote:
       | Feels like AI makes the fight against paper mills easier. A group
       | could submit AI-generated papers to different places and create a
       | public index based on how successful they are at getting their
       | nonsense papers accepted.
        
         | EGreg wrote:
         | Your comment seems self-contradictory.
         | 
         | AI makes the _fight against_ spam harder since it is harder to
         | detect fakes. The group would only get more successful over
         | time. The "AI detection" tools get worse over time and
         | overhyped already anyway, as we learned from the guys running
         | that sci fi submission site.
        
           | ushtaritk421 wrote:
           | Right, but an org that accepts fake papers (now easily
           | generated) gets outed easily and ignored by everyone.
           | 
           | Legitimate orgs with real review processes presumably sniff
           | out the fake papers easily with their current procedures and
           | don't publish them.
           | 
           | And I guess if AI gets good enough that an expert reviewer
           | learns something novel by reading it then it deserves to get
           | published.
        
             | EGreg wrote:
             | That's exactly the point. What you previously assumed
             | review processes could catch is no longer true. AI can now
             | infiltrate pretty much anything, especially if there is a
             | Generative Adversarial Network (which "AI detection tools"
             | can be used to train at scale).
             | 
             | And if you say it "deserves to get published" then taken to
             | its logical conclusion, human generated content in all
             | fields and interactions will soon be dwarfed by AI content
             | and interactions.
             | 
             | The issue is that the AI can be switched out after it's
             | infiltrated and taken over, or it can be gradually used to
             | shift public opinion or organize any sort of coordinated
             | attack. Heck, a reputational attack is easy to pull off at
             | scale within 6 months via AutoGPT already, and it takes 1
             | button press.
             | 
             | First they'll separate us, then they'll herd us into echo
             | chabers and cause our protests won't be heard by anyone
             | anymore amid all the AI glut.
             | 
             | It comes gradually, then all at once!
        
         | bagels wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokal_affair
        
           | SpaceBuddha wrote:
           | "Later, after Sokal revealed the hoax in Lingua Franca,
           | Social Text's editors wrote that they had requested editorial
           | changes that Sokal refused to make, and had had concerns
           | about the quality of the writing: 'We requested him (a) to
           | excise a good deal of the philosophical speculation and (b)
           | to excise most of his footnotes.' Still, despite calling
           | Sokal a 'difficult, uncooperative author", and noting that
           | such writers were 'well known to journal editors', based on
           | Sokal's credentials Social Text published the article in the
           | May 1996 Spring/Summer 'Science Wars' issue"
        
             | noobermin wrote:
             | That even makes it worse, I somehow didn't know this part
             | of it.
        
           | BeetleB wrote:
           | Sokal did not publish in a peer reviewed journal.
        
       | dontupvoteme wrote:
       | The easiest solutions won't be appreciated -- chain of trust from
       | older professors/academics who co-author(or otherwise sign off
       | that it's legit), metrics based on historical outputs from
       | university+lab, and i'm sure some will start looking at names.
        
       | Balgair wrote:
       | For 'lay' people here on HN, I just want to make a quick point:
       | 
       | Peer-review does not mean that the reviewer is re-doing
       | experiments or re-running analyses. They are only reviewing to
       | see if the paper merits inclusion in the journal. Often this
       | means telling the authors to do more experiments or check other
       | things. But, to be clear, the peer-reviewer does not re-do things
       | and check if they are 'right'
        
         | JoshuaJB wrote:
         | Although there is a type of peer review that includes redoing
         | experiments and analysis: artifact evaluation. All of the top
         | conferences in my field (real-time embedded systems) include
         | this as an opt-in option, and papers get a special badge if
         | they also pass artifact evaluation. I strongly believe that
         | other fields in computer science would benefit by including and
         | normalizing this process.
         | 
         | Besides the reproducibility benefits, artifact evaluation
         | forces documentation of the experiments and process; I've found
         | this enormously useful when on-boarding new students to an
         | existing project.
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | The Jan Hendrik Schon scandal of two decades ago and the fallout
       | from it point to how to limit the spread of fraudulent research
       | into the accepted literature:
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sch%C3%B6n_scandal
       | 
       | The basic issue is that all raw data must be preserved and made
       | available for scrutiny by other researchers after publication, as
       | must experimental materials. Why?
       | 
       | > "The committee requested copies of the raw data, but found that
       | Schon had kept no laboratory notebooks. His raw data files had
       | been erased from his computer. According to Schon, the files were
       | erased because his computer had limited hard drive space. In
       | addition, all of his experimental samples had been discarded or
       | damaged beyond repair."
       | 
       | The opposition to this standard is strongest in the corporatized
       | patent-centric research sectors, which is most of applied science
       | in the USA and China, etc. Ambitious academics in non-commercial
       | sectors don't really like it either as it means competitors can
       | jump-start their research by having access to their raw data and
       | experimental protocols. Regardless, implementing standard
       | practices with respect to laboratory notebooks, raw data, and
       | experimental materials in any institution receiving federal
       | research money makes a lot of sense - along with regular audits,
       | with failure leading to a cutoff in funding.
       | 
       | This problem is much broader than just the paper-mill outfits the
       | article focuses on; some highly public and contentious related
       | issues are public access to the raw data, research records and
       | database sequences from the Wuhan Institute of Virology from
       | c.2016-2019, the raw clinical trial data from Pfizer/Moderna/J&J
       | Covid vaccine trials in 2020, and so on.
        
       | pierat wrote:
       | Then, lets use the 'AI' as its own proving ground.
       | 
       | "AI, here's the text of this paper. We need to determine if it's
       | accurate and true. It may be a false paper, and our goal is to
       | determine that.
       | 
       | AI, please analyze for logical fallacies, and list and cite them
       | here.
       | 
       | Next, for the potentially falsifiable claims, please give me a
       | list of potential experiments that I can do or verify to check
       | the claims being made."
       | 
       | Edit: Wow, at -2, and attracting all the haters. Thought this
       | place was about inquisitiveness and curiosity about tech. Oh
       | well.
        
         | worrycue wrote:
         | I don't understand why you would think current AI can do any of
         | that. Current AI can't even stop hallucinating.
        
           | pierat wrote:
           | Because I was sub'ed to openAI until yesterday. And my
           | experiments with it were pretty promising.
           | 
           | I took the whole corpus of Magic the Gathering rules (
           | https://magic.wizards.com/en/rules ) as a textfile, and fed
           | it into 4.0 . parsed it in a few seconds. I was then able to
           | send it cards from Gatherer (MtG card database), and then ask
           | it pointed questions about multiple card interactions.
           | 
           | I also compared it to what DCI judges have made ruling on as
           | well, and matched 100%. It quite impressed me.
           | 
           | I was thinking next is to give it the rules text, and a JSON
           | of every card. And then ask for all combos. But I'd run out
           | of response before it could.
        
             | raincole wrote:
             | > But I'd run out of response before it could.
             | 
             | So you used ChatGPT via the website.
             | 
             | > I took the whole corpus of Magic the Gathering rules (
             | https://magic.wizards.com/en/rules ) as a textfile, and fed
             | it into 4.0 . parsed it in a few seconds.
             | 
             | You mean the TXT file? ChatGPT(4) on the website literally
             | can't comprehend it. It has much, much, much, much more
             | tokens than ChatGPT(4) can take.
             | 
             | So this particular example proved what your parent comment
             | pointed out. You think AI can do something that it can't.
        
             | jfengel wrote:
             | Out of curiosity, did you try the same experiment without
             | specifically training it on the MtG rules? Could it have
             | all of that, including card interaction decisions, from its
             | training data (sourced from the whole Internet)?
        
               | pierat wrote:
               | I only tried it after giving the URL of the rules.
               | There's multiple rules documents, and I wanted to make
               | sure to use the current rules.
               | 
               | It might have given good results without explicit rules
               | provided. Or it could have spouted garbage.
               | 
               | I did however ask very pointed questions about timing and
               | layers. The ones that had DCI judge writings matched 100%
               | (could be overfit with matching these documents). And the
               | ones not written about also appeared to be completely
               | accurate as well, since it also cited the rules that it
               | came to its decision.
               | 
               | However the larger problem is that GPT4 has been
               | degrading quite a bit recently. It also precipitated my
               | decision to unsubscribe. And I'm not the only one to
               | notice this https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36134249
        
       | joshspankit wrote:
       | I had hoped this was from the angle of "AI does better review
       | than the journals" and "AI is being used to weed out a lot of
       | papers that are just plain wrong".
       | 
       | Maybe next time.
        
       | ISL wrote:
       | In the short term, the solution may be reputation, distributed by
       | keychain.
       | 
       | When author C submits a paper and they're unknown to the journal,
       | the journal consults the keychain to see whom has vouched for C
       | as a credible researcher. If authors A and B have vouched for
       | them, and A and B are in similarly good standing, C is regarded
       | as being in good stead and the editorial process can move forward
       | as usual.
       | 
       | If C is later found to have maliciously faked data, it isn't just
       | C who gets dinged on the keychain, so do A and B by extension,
       | providing an enforcement mechanism.
       | 
       | This is, in effect, how it has worked for centuries. Editor D
       | calls/writes to A and B to ask, "hey, there's this new author C
       | with a provocative paper that's in your subject area, but I've
       | never heard of them. Are they the real deal?" If A and B vouch
       | for C, but C turns out to be a fraud, Editor D will take any
       | future consultation with A and B with a large grain of salt.
       | 
       | It is possible that AI will soon be able to generate entirely-
       | credible looking papers. What AI will struggle to do, until it
       | starts funding research of its own, is to generate novel research
       | that reflects whatever is actually true of nature. A reputation
       | system is the last bulwark against entropy, if no automated tools
       | can sort wheat from chaff.
       | 
       | Lest you think versions of these systems aren't already in place,
       | try posting something to the arXiv as a new author.....
       | https://info.arxiv.org/help/endorsement.html
        
         | hospitalhusband wrote:
         | This is web of trust.
        
       | api wrote:
       | You get what you incentivize. We incentivize papers so we get
       | papers.
       | 
       | Also anything used as a metric tends to cease to be a good
       | metric.
        
         | caddemon wrote:
         | I think the main problem is not in itself incentivizing papers
         | or using papers as a metric. The problem is that they're in
         | many ways the only thing incentivized and the only metric given
         | serious consideration. And the general expectations for/form of
         | a paper are so homogenized across a given field. This makes it
         | very feasible to game the system in a particular way that is
         | bad for science.
         | 
         | It's also a serious misallocation of incentives purely from a
         | system functioning perspective. At the very least you need to
         | incentivize peer review alongside incentivizing papers.
         | Currently there is hardly any incentive at all to help
         | carefully review papers, so we have no checks and balances in
         | place to deal with the natural result of incentivizing the
         | writing of papers. If there were greater heterogeneity in
         | scientific roles it wouldn't be so bad for some to have heavy
         | paper incentives -- because there'd be others with heavy
         | incentives to do a good job highlighting the best papers and
         | finding flaws in the bad ones.
        
         | riku_iki wrote:
         | There is a good metric in AI research: reproducible results on
         | well known benchmarks (Big Bench for example).
        
           | sebzim4500 wrote:
           | There's no good benchmark that tests for most of the issues
           | with LLMs, for example.
           | 
           | Maybe if we had a benchmark that told you how often a model
           | hallucinated we would have solved the problem by now.
        
             | riku_iki wrote:
             | There are plenty of benchmarks with factual questions.
        
       | tikkun wrote:
       | The upside from this downside is that it increases the
       | performance of papers that can be replicated easily. In fact,
       | once AI can replicate papers, that'll be helpful for verifying a
       | lot of research.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | How will AI be able to replicate papers?
        
           | dsr_ wrote:
           | The same way a Xerox machine does, but with different wording
           | and randomly synthesized sources.
        
           | captainbland wrote:
           | This seems like a bleak dystopian fiction concept actually.
           | AIs being in control of human experimentation on the basis of
           | well meaning but poorly interpreted ethical guidelines (with,
           | of course, fully hallucinated loopholes).
           | 
           | Maybe add in that this has become one of the few sources of
           | income for people as more and more jobs have been lost to the
           | machines so many are compelled to participate.
        
             | samstave wrote:
             | " _Take all the research done in [field] and compare the
             | papers written by N authors, and look into their citations
             | and compare the outcomes of what was published and find
             | where the summation of the reads of their papers as shared
             | citations and summarize the research where they agree,
             | disagree and compare with international organizations and
             | their papers coming from specifically the leads in this
             | field from countries X,Y,Z_ "
             | 
             |  _Create a paper based on this information and coalesce all
             | this data into a new outcome. Do not Lie or make up data.
             | list where you think you are lacking in data - or based on
             | searching, which datasets or companies should be included
             | in the list. Create a table for all the citations sourced,
             | with links and a comment why it is or is not included in
             | your findings "_
             | 
             | EDIT: Someone down voted this, and I am learning 'Prompt
             | Engineering' - can someone ELI5 why this is a bad prompt?
             | Seriously, can someone explain what sucks about the
             | question?
             | 
             | Is it a stupid premise or is the crafting of the prompt
             | lame?
        
               | venv wrote:
               | What you are describing, is not replication.
        
               | yifanl wrote:
               | Physically repeating the experiments and independently
               | verifying the data in the research is missing.
        
         | logifail wrote:
         | > once AI can replicate papers
         | 
         | Is this AI to be provided with a group of poorly-remunerated
         | postgrads and postdocs and a laboratory full of relevant
         | equipment in which they may conduct experiments under its
         | direction?
         | 
         | (Full disclosure: have a couple of very minor published papers
         | obtained under the non-AI version of this exact system...)
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | mtkhaos wrote:
       | Cheers to an Open Simulation Testing Platform. No reason not to
       | have each aspect of our knowledge base to be testable in an
       | reasonable amount of time.
        
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       (page generated 2023-05-31 23:01 UTC)