[HN Gopher] Nvidia DGX GH200: 100 Terabyte GPU Memory System
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       Nvidia DGX GH200: 100 Terabyte GPU Memory System
        
       Author : MacsHeadroom
       Score  : 510 points
       Date   : 2023-05-31 00:58 UTC (22 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (developer.nvidia.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (developer.nvidia.com)
        
       | natas wrote:
       | okay, but can it play crysis at 60fps
        
       | YetAnotherNick wrote:
       | Wow, 480 GB per GPU! What happened to end of Moore's law?
       | 
       | I hope this improvement translates to consumer GPUs as 24GB is a
       | big limitation.
        
         | zirgs wrote:
         | There's a 24 GB limitation for consumer GPUs, because AMD and
         | Intel aren't competitive.
        
         | bushbaba wrote:
         | Moores law stated transistor density per square inch roughly
         | doubled every 2 years.
         | 
         | I see no end in sight for that specific law. As we can always
         | go vertically if needed. It's also held through so far in
         | 2020[1].
         | 
         | The folks who conflated moores law to also mean doubling of
         | compute processing capabilities of a CPU double every 2 years
         | were wrong.
         | 
         | [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
        
           | lmpdev wrote:
           | > As we can always go vertically if needed.
           | 
           | I don't think you understand how difficult non-planar
           | transistors are to engineer at scale
        
             | CyberDildonics wrote:
             | How difficult is it? Difficult or really really difficult?
        
           | audunw wrote:
           | An implicit aspect of Moores law has been that cost per
           | transistor has been going down as the density is increasing.
           | This doesn't seem to be the case anymore. The technology
           | required to get higher transistor density is getting
           | ridiculously expensive. We're not seeing the power benefit of
           | scaling down transistors either, since leakage is starting to
           | get too high. I guess there's one more trick in the pipeline
           | with Gate-All-Around, but I don't think I see a path to get
           | better gate control after that. And if we don't get power
           | consumption per transistor down, then stacking transistors in
           | layers to increase density isn't going to be very viable for
           | compute chips, since you need to get the heat out of the
           | chip. IIRC, Intel is working on putting the power metal
           | layers on the back side of the chip, which grows the chip
           | vertical in the _other_ direction so to speak. And it helps
           | wick away heat as well, so could open a path for a few layers
           | of compute transistors. But all this adds a huge amount of
           | complexity to manufacturing, so at some point it might not be
           | worth the cost anymore.
        
             | cubefox wrote:
             | I thought the power benefits of shrinking still hold up
             | rather well, in contrast to cost. E.g. new Nvidia gaming
             | cards have smaller GPUs for the same price as the
             | respective old generation, meaning the cost per chip area
             | doesn't stay constant for improved manufacturing nodes. So
             | the price per transistor shrinks slower than the number of
             | transistors per chip area grows. At some point in the
             | future the price per transistor would go up rather than
             | decrease. Then the value of shrinking structures could
             | stem, at best, from lower power draw per transistor. For
             | mobile devices. But even power draw per transistor may stop
             | decreasing at some point. Then further shrinking the
             | process nodes would be useless.
        
           | zamadatix wrote:
           | Per your link, Moore's law also doesn't state anything about
           | density. Density is just one of the ways "The complexity for
           | minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a
           | factor of two per year.", i.e. Moore's law only ever stated
           | transistor _count per a given price_ roughly doubled every 2
           | years.
        
             | reaperman wrote:
             | Moore's original article on the topic in 1965[0], and the
             | same with additional context interview form 2005[1].
             | 
             | > "The original Moore's Law came out of an article I
             | published in 1965...I had no idea this was going to be an
             | accurate prediction, but amazingly enough instead of ten
             | doubling, we got 9 over the 10 years, but still followed
             | pretty well along the curve. And one of my friends, Dr.
             | Carver Mead, a Professor at Cal Tech, dubbed this Moore's
             | Law. So the original one was doubling every year in
             | complexity now in 1975, I had to go back and revisit
             | this... and I noticed we were losing one of the key factors
             | that let us make this remarkable rate of progress... and it
             | was one that was contributing about half of the advances
             | were making. So then I changed it to looking forward, we'd
             | only be doubling every couple of years, and that was really
             | the two predictions I made. Now the one that gets quoted is
             | doubling every 18 months...I think it was Dave House, who
             | used to work here at Intel, did that, he decided that the
             | complexity was doubling every two years and the transistors
             | were getting faster, that computer performance was going to
             | double every 18 months... but that's what got on Intel's
             | Website... and everything else. I never said 18 months
             | that's the way it often gets quoted."
             | 
             | Anyways, See slide 13 here[2] (2021). "Pop-culture" Moore's
             | law stated that the number of transistors per area will
             | double every n months. That's still happening. Besides,
             | neither Moore's law nor Dennard scaling are even the most
             | critical scaling law to be concerned about...
             | 
             | ...that's probably Koomey's law[3][5], which looks well on
             | track to hold for the rest of our careers. But eventually
             | as computing approaches the Landauer limit[4] it must
             | asymptotically level off as well. Probably starting around
             | year 2050. Then we'll need to actually start "doing more
             | with less" and minimizing the number of computations done
             | for specific tasks. That will begin a very very productive
             | time for custom silicon that is very task-specialized and
             | low-level algorithmic optimization.
             | 
             | [2] Shows that Moore's law (green line) is expected to
             | start leveling off soon, but it has not yet slowed down. It
             | also shows Koomey's law (orange line) holding indefinitely.
             | Fun fact, if Koomey's law holds, we'll have exaflop power
             | in <20W in about 20 years. Which should be enough for
             | people to create ChatGPT-4 in their pocket.
             | 
             | 0: https://www.rfcafe.com/references/electronics-
             | mag/gordon-moo...
             | 
             | 1: https://cdn3.weka-
             | fachmedien.de/media_uploads/documents/1429...
             | 
             | 2: (Slide 13) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93796
             | 6/0001193125212...
             | 
             | 3: "The constant rate of doubling of the number of
             | computations per joule of energy dissipated"
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koomey%27s_law
             | 
             | 4: "The thermodynamic limit for the minimum amount of
             | energy theoretically necessary to perform an irreversible
             | single-bit operation."
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landauer%27s_principle
             | 
             | 5: https://www.koomey.com/post/14466436072
             | 
             | 6: https://www.koomey.com/post/153838038643
        
               | dontwearitout wrote:
               | Thank you for the detailed writeup with sources, I
               | enjoyed this. I'd somehow never heard of Koomey's law
               | despite working in tech, this is very interesting and
               | directly relevant to the widespread deployment of AI
               | (biological neural networks still blow silicon out of the
               | water for computations per joule).
        
           | Symmetry wrote:
           | That's a common misconception and I'm not surprised it made
           | it into Wikipedia. Moore's 1965 paper was the first time
           | anybody had pointed out the exponential nature of progress in
           | miniaturizing transistors and packing more of them on the
           | same integrated circuit. But it wasn't until 1975 a the same
           | conference where Dennard presented his scaling laws that the
           | phrase "Moore's Law" was coined in an interview where someone
           | was trying to explain Dennard scaling to a reporter. The
           | original coining was ambiguous as to whether it meant more
           | transistors, faster transistors, or smaller transistors and
           | that ambiguity remained in its usage because from 1975 until
           | about 2005 they all went together just as Dennard said they
           | would.
           | 
           | And my lecture notes from a class I took on semiconductor
           | physics in college had a photo copy of a memo from Moore
           | himself endorsing this broader conception of Moore's Law.
        
           | karmasimida wrote:
           | Smaller transistor means lower energy consumption, going
           | vertical won't solve this.
           | 
           | This ceiling will be hit much earlier than what
           | process/technique allowed.
        
             | bigmattystyles wrote:
             | smaller energy per transistor, but if you're packing more
             | in the package, the package's consumption will grow up.
             | Also, I think leakage current (and the heat that comes with
             | it) goes up the smaller the feature size.
        
           | valianteffort wrote:
           | Not to be pedantic but wouldn't stacking transistors have no
           | effect on density per square inch? Since it would only
           | increase density per cubic inch.
        
             | bushbaba wrote:
             | I view it as if you cut 1 square inch of a motherboard.
             | That the every 2 years you'd expect to see roughly double
             | the number of transistors in that cut out piece.
             | 
             | Scaling vertically would "technically" still meet the
             | above.
        
               | fnordpiglet wrote:
               | I don't think that's what they mean by per square inch.
               | They mean in a plane, not a volume. If you add a third
               | dimension the law stays the same, because a volume is two
               | planes and the density law applies to each independently.
               | That's why node sizes are a single value not a two
               | dimensional value. A 3nm node is 3nm feature sizes,
               | regardless of dimensionality.
        
               | bee_rider wrote:
               | The quote given on Wikipedia is:
               | 
               | > The complexity for minimum component costs has
               | increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year.
               | Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected
               | to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term,
               | the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although
               | there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly
               | constant for at least 10 years.
               | 
               | If he was talking about the area of a single transistor,
               | there would be more concise ways to put it.
        
               | quickthrower2 wrote:
               | Even a 1000ft thick motherboard?
        
               | qup wrote:
               | That'll show Moore
        
               | quickthrower2 wrote:
               | More's law: if there is more of it, it does more!
        
             | reaperman wrote:
             | Stacking transistors increases density per square inch if
             | it can be done on a single wafer of silicon, because its
             | "per square inch of fab wafer silicon"
        
             | bee_rider wrote:
             | We include multi-story buildings when we calculate
             | population density, why not include multi-story chips?
        
           | bigmattystyles wrote:
           | To be fair, if you stack them, density is not going up - only
           | if ignore the number of stacks and take one of their areas
           | for the total number of stacked transistors would it then go
           | up. Plus, stacking is great, but with heat issues, isn't the
           | industry going to many dielets with a massive interconnect?
        
             | grogenaut wrote:
             | If measured in square inch the 3rd and more importantly the
             | 4th dimension are not accounted for and are basically free.
             | 
             | Another way to say it is to count the famous founder brown:
             | ymmoore wasn't thinking 4th dimensionally.
             | 
             | For shame really
        
             | reaperman wrote:
             | Heat issues are very valid. But the "per square inch"
             | density is relative to a square inch of fab wafer. So if it
             | can be done on one wafer, it counts. If it's stacking
             | discrete chipsets, not so much.
        
               | cubefox wrote:
               | Stacking likely wouldn't save substantial cost compared
               | to producing multiple different wafers. It could even
               | increase cost if it decreases yield. That's very
               | different from making the transistors smaller, where the
               | cost per transistor decreased exponentially in the past.
               | People focus too much in Moore's law (transistors per
               | area), when the only interesting quantities are 1) price
               | per performance and 2) power draw per performance.
        
           | rudedogg wrote:
           | > I see no end in sight for that specific law. As we can
           | always go vertically if needed.
           | 
           | Not a hardware person but heat dissipation becomes more of a
           | problem when you go vertical IIRC.
        
         | packetlost wrote:
         | big limitations for what? AI models? It's certainly not for
         | gaming and we're not quite to the point of consumers running
         | huge AI models on their desktops. The HN crowd is, as always,
         | not representative of the broader consumer market.
        
           | fnordpiglet wrote:
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_learning_super_sampling
        
             | WithinReason wrote:
             | DLSS needs less memory than rendering in native resolution,
             | not more.
        
           | zmgsabst wrote:
           | Aren't we?
           | 
           | We're seeing ChatGPT plug-ins for games, to provide
           | intelligent conversation -- and we've seen DNNs in StarCraft
           | and similar.
           | 
           | To me, the "next gen" of gaming is intelligent NPCs,
           | combining those features to create realistic behavior. That
           | will require that consumer GPUs get closer to supercomputer
           | GPUs:
           | 
           | More tensor cores and higher memory.
        
             | bigmattystyles wrote:
             | Other than the holographic projection, it feels like we're
             | in reach of the holodeck - you ask for a scene with a
             | character or general backstory, and you go in. Fun times.
             | Now on that energy to matter and holographic projection
             | part...
        
               | flangola7 wrote:
               | It's not a holodeck but Google has an interactive display
               | now that feels like an open window. It doesn't even
               | register in my mind as a display, it feels like looking
               | through a literal portal to another location in physical
               | space.
        
               | throwaway2037 wrote:
               | I tried to Google for more information, but I didn't find
               | anything. Can you share a link?
        
               | csallen wrote:
               | https://blog.google/technology/research/project-starline-
               | pro...
        
               | throwaway2037 wrote:
               | That is amazing. Do you work for Google or are you part
               | of the early access program? How does it work? I cannot
               | believe we haven't seen this on HN before!
        
         | spullara wrote:
         | 80 GB per GPU and the consumer GPU is purposefully lower memory
         | to induce demand for server grade.
        
           | airgapstopgap wrote:
           | On top of contracts strictly penalizing utilization of
           | consumer GPUs in data centers, at that! Even with the memory,
           | bandwidth etc. handicaps, servers with 4090/3090s would have
           | been competitive for many ML tasks.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | benaadams wrote:
         | End of Dennard scaling was the performance breakdown. Meant
         | chip frequencies couldn't be cranked higher and higher as
         | temperature dissipation became more and more of an issue
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennard_scaling
        
           | cubefox wrote:
           | Except for GPUs, which are for highly parallel tasks anyway.
        
         | SomaticPirate wrote:
         | A bit self-serving but GPU scaling supposedly follows Huang's
         | Law (from Jensen Huang of Nvidia) which claims GPUs more than
         | double (~1.7x) every 2 years
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huang%27s_law#
        
           | aix1 wrote:
           | > more than double (~1.7x) every 2 years
           | 
           | To clarify in case anyone else finds this confusing. The
           | linked article suggests a 1.7x _annual_ increase, which
           | compounds to 2.89x every two years.
        
           | cubefox wrote:
           | I'm pretty sure this law does no longer hold, as new Nvidia
           | GPUs show only meager performance improvements over their (in
           | class) predecessors. Though this could also be due to the
           | price per chip area increasing faster than performance.
        
             | coolspot wrote:
             | 4090 is twice faster than 3090 in almost all metrics.
        
               | cubefox wrote:
               | It came out two years later, so according to Huang's law
               | we would still expect more than that. Moreover, most
               | other models have seen much smaller improvements, like
               | the 3060/4060.
        
         | CyberDildonics wrote:
         | Are there more dense memory chips or is it more of the same
         | memory chips? Putting more memory chips on something doesn't
         | have anything to do with increased density, which is what
         | moore's law is about.
        
       | fock wrote:
       | So how exactly (in the technical sense) is this more energy
       | efficient than both PCIe and Infiniband (which seems to be a
       | claim somewhere too, together with the added bandwidth)?
       | 
       | EDIT: so the whitepaper is surprisingly good for that (somehow
       | all the articles are very weird...):
       | https://resources.nvidia.com/en-us-grace-cpu/nvidia-grace-ho... -
       | essentially they connect the GPUs with NVlink instead of PCIe
       | (so, vertical integrators heaven) and then NVLink forms a
       | separate interconnect for GPUs. So this is cool and essentially
       | what Fujitsu, Google, ... have done for some time. A fun thing
       | is, that they like to add up their nvlink-duplex bandwith and
       | don't do for PCIe... (which then suddenly would have the same
       | bandwith as the GPU-side).
       | 
       | Still very cool to see the mainframe come back alive ...
       | 
       | (it's a bit sad they bought Mellanox - monopolies are sad...)
        
       | maxdo wrote:
       | How doe it compared with tesla dojo?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | bullen wrote:
       | That RAM is distributed among the GPUs right?
       | 
       | 256 x 450W = 115KW = 82MWh = $82.000 / month at peak EU costs
       | this winter (which will be normal next winter)
       | 
       | For what, something that gets everything wrong?
        
         | smoldesu wrote:
         | It's an agnostic system. They _could_ use this thing for curing
         | cancer or predicting earthquakes, but... just you watch and see
         | what the Free Market uses it for.
        
           | bullen wrote:
           | Seen how bad both those are doing and will do in the future I
           | guess it's "progress".
           | 
           | But correction to my comment above: These become one global
           | memory... how slow it is and how many corruptions they will
           | have is unknown but holy hell...
        
       | sheeshkebab wrote:
       | But can it play Doom?
        
         | zakki wrote:
         | You mean millions of Doom?
        
           | Xeoncross wrote:
           | At this point, I'm convinced that someone is here which could
           | make that cluster play trillions of Doom. I mean, just how
           | many pregnancy tests worth of compute is this?
        
           | WithinReason wrote:
           | Megadoom
        
           | robotnikman wrote:
           | With each doom instance being played by an AI?
        
         | bottlepalm wrote:
         | If it can infer 35 fps, then it can be Doom.
        
         | speed_spread wrote:
         | Hell, with a developer emulation force of 13 MegaCarmacks it
         | can rewrite 50,000 Doom per second!
         | 
         | (But that number drops to only 10/s if the rewrites are in
         | Rust)
        
           | bogwog wrote:
           | > (But that number drops to only 10/s if the rewrites are in
           | Rust)
           | 
           | Because of the slow toolchain, or because of the trademark
           | lawsuits?
        
         | RandomBK wrote:
         | Yes, you will be able to train an AI model that is capable of
         | beating Doom using this machine.
        
           | brrrrrm wrote:
           | I think you're more likely to train a model capable of
           | _writing_ Doom using this machine.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | rektide wrote:
       | I really have to wonder if anyone can compete with this kind of
       | systems integration capability. A core having 900GBps
       | connectivity to the cluster memory at such relative low power is
       | epic beyond words. 800Gbps ethernet across PCIe is uncompetitive
       | in extreme.
       | 
       | How the rest of the industry can respond is such a mystery. And
       | will it be lone competitors, or will a new PC era be able to
       | start, with an ecosystem of capabilities?
        
         | ironbound wrote:
         | Sounds like you havent seen Wafer-scale integration computing,
         | Tesla has one and comercial companies like cerebras will sell
         | you a cabnet without the miles of fiber networking.
         | 
         | https://www.cerebras.net/andromeda/
        
         | briffle wrote:
         | I'm curious how you can keep that fed with data fast enough.
         | What kind of interfaces to your network do you need to keep it
         | busy and not just waiting on data.
        
         | fock wrote:
         | Isn't this a lot of things which AMD has already sold as the
         | ORNL-Frontier 2 years ago? The main difference seems to be that
         | external bandwidth here indeed is crazy via NVLink (though it
         | is only 450GB/s per way so the same as 64 PCIe-Gen5...) and
         | they have two networks for communication (although I suppose
         | the HPE Slingshot is as good as the Infiniband in here)...
        
         | brucethemoose2 wrote:
         | Cerebras supposedly can: https://www.servethehome.com/cerebras-
         | wafer-scale-engine-2-w...
         | 
         | In hindsight the 40GB of SRAM feels kind of quaint, but
         | nevertheless their _very_ fat nodes let them get away with more
         | than Nvidia could with A100s, as you can see in the slides.
         | 
         | CS2 is a little old now. I bet an update is just around the
         | corner.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Ultimately how fast their transistors can switch and at what
         | power is determined by TSMC, which everyone else can use too.
         | Same for density of interconnect.
        
         | modeless wrote:
         | This seems to be competing directly with Google's TPU pods.
         | Looks like TPU v4 has a 300 GB/s interconnect, and 32 GB HBM
         | per chip * 4096 chips = 131 TB (which is all HBM, so higher
         | bandwidth than the LPDDR in Nvidia's system). So yeah, Nvidia's
         | interconnect seems better. However, TPU v4 was deployed in 2020
         | (!) and Nvidia's thing won't be ready until next year. I've
         | gotta imagine that TPU v5 has already been deployed internally
         | for a while now, but hasn't been disclosed yet. Who knows, TPU
         | v6 might even be deployed before this Nvidia thing.
        
           | ijidak wrote:
           | Is HBM mostly Samsung?
        
             | atty wrote:
             | I thought SK Hynix was the big producer of HBM? But that
             | could be out of date.
        
             | mahkeiro wrote:
             | Market share for last year were 50% SK, 40% Samsung and 10%
             | Micron, but as there is currently a huge demand things may
             | change depending on capacity.
        
           | renonce wrote:
           | If TPUv4 pods were so powerful, why are most new models
           | trained with NVIDIA cards rather than TPU?
        
             | boyka wrote:
             | Availability only on GCP and in particular cost.
        
               | fulafel wrote:
               | Google has advertised that they have better perf/$ than
               | GPUs, is this wrong or do you just mean absolute cost (so
               | not available in small enough slices)?
               | 
               | edit: actually now i can't find the claim, maybe i
               | misremember what the papers said.
        
               | sanxiyn wrote:
               | https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.01433 does claim "1.2x-1.7x
               | faster and uses 1.3x-1.9x less power than the NVIDIA
               | A100".
        
               | mochomocha wrote:
               | Perf/$ where $ is what it cost _them_ , not $ they're
               | ready to sell to others as a product. Cloud margins in
               | the high two-digit percents are typical, and I'd imagine
               | even higher for very specialized products in high-demand
               | from deep-pocketed customers.
        
             | ShamelessC wrote:
             | These are just my guesses but:
             | 
             | Software for TPU is still in its early stages. CUDA is well
             | established. You can test on a gaming GPU that you can find
             | (locally!) in many markets. XLA is meant to solve this, but
             | first impressions matter and my first impression was that
             | it has not yet "solved" this issue.
             | 
             | TPU is only available via Google Cloud - as far as I know
             | they don't have NVIDIA's widespread distribution to various
             | HPC/supercomputer systems. This also has implications on
             | scaling up more than a few pods, as they will need to be
             | colocated with speedy interconnect (which is provided by
             | the various existing HPC systems that use NVIDIA's chips).
             | 
             | Finally, I think many people are discovering that the
             | supposed benefits of TPU are marginal at best in the face
             | of the types of natural scaling issues that both GPU's and
             | TPU's suffer from when scaling out to e.g. hundreds of
             | pods.
             | 
             | I'm certain that someone with more experience than I could
             | give a better answer though - and again, all speculation. I
             | refuse to use TPU because Google Cloud's system for getting
             | access to said TPU's was horrible for me when I tried it. I
             | believe John Carmack has a nice tweet thread specifying the
             | same issues I ran into.
             | 
             | In general, Google has a habit of developing tech for other
             | Googlers first, and as such winds up ignoring a lot of
             | real-world scenarios faced by researchers/practitioners.
             | NVIDIA on the other hand has been working directly with a
             | ton of institutions and businesses ever since the inception
             | of CUDA.
             | 
             | That their TPU's have seen any adoption at all is mostly
             | due to their research program which granted very cheap
             | access to TPU's to tons of people.
        
             | imsaw wrote:
             | From a personal use case, the number of instructions
             | available in TPUs are still limited and some workaround is
             | needed when designing custom layers. Even if it's available
             | in platforms like Colab or Kaggle, people still lean to
             | GPUs as it is more versatile.
        
             | llm_nerd wrote:
             | There is a mythology to Google's TPU that is not validated
             | by real world numbers. Where we can actually test (I mean
             | -- TPUv4 pods are available right now on their cloud) it is
             | very good, but remains uncompetitive with the h100. I mean,
             | Google disclaims that you shouldn't compare it, doing the
             | classic "the h100 is on a better process node so it's
             | unfair". People will always point at a mythical next
             | generation that is surely way better, despite the fact that
             | Google is currently building big supercomputers with their
             | TPUv4. And in Google's shootout, again comparing with the
             | last generation of nvidia hardware (the A100), Google's
             | biggest advantage was in the connection fabric, which with
             | this DGX GH200 nvidia not only overcame, but bested by a
             | magnitude.
             | 
             | More competition would be fantastic. Better pricing at
             | scale would be fantastic. But there is absolutely no doubt
             | that nvidia is far ahead of Google right now. Tesla made
             | some believably pushing claims about their own efforts with
             | their own hardware, so who knows maybe they're the real
             | challenger.
        
             | modeless wrote:
             | To add to the other answers, TPUv4 was not released to
             | cloud customers until last year. And I bet availability is
             | not as good as GPUs, even in Google Cloud (obviously TPUs
             | are not available at all in other clouds).
        
             | ioedward wrote:
             | TPUs are mostly hoarded by Google Research (including
             | Deepmind) and Ads. Very few are being used by external
             | people.
        
               | vintermann wrote:
               | The greatest artificial minds of our generation are
               | thinking about how to make us click on ads?
        
               | itslennysfault wrote:
               | A little freaky when you think about what that really
               | means. Some of the most advanced AI systems in the world
               | are solely focused on being good at manipulating human
               | behavior. Cool... cool cool cool............
        
               | czx4f4bd wrote:
               | Tangentially, I think this explains the conspiracy theory
               | that ad companies are spying on everyone's phones and
               | serving ads based on what we talk about in real life.
               | 
               | Think about all the stuff ChatGPT and GPT-4 can do with
               | even minimal prompting. Even when they hallucinate, the
               | text is still ostensibly coherent and natural sounding.
               | Now imagine a similarly powerful model, but its input is
               | a ton of metadata about your behavior and its output is
               | ads.
               | 
               | Now consider that adtech has had substantially more
               | funding for substantially longer than research into LLMs,
               | so ad serving models are probably way more powerful and
               | optimized than even GPT-4.
               | 
               | It's freaky to think about indeed.
        
               | jnkl wrote:
               | Another thing is: people's individual behavior is not as
               | unique as we'd like to think. As a whole everyone is
               | unique, but in single surprisingly complex aspects of our
               | life we are hardly ever alone.
        
               | ktta wrote:
               | It's been that way for over a decade now. Welcome
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | philjohn wrote:
               | It was ads that made the money to develop the artificial
               | minds in the first place.
        
               | exikyut wrote:
               | This is technically correct to the extent of paperclip
               | maximization and I don't like it.
        
               | papruapap wrote:
               | That is only true for Google. If anything bootstrapped
               | AI, it was gaming.
        
               | replygirl wrote:
               | what's the gaming story? most of the ai we know today
               | builds on academic work going back to the 90s
        
               | donkeybeer wrote:
               | Probably refers to the development of and increase in
               | computing power of gpus, I guess.
        
               | selectodude wrote:
               | It's matrix multiplication all the way down.
        
               | laserlight wrote:
               | Last time I checked, OpenAI wasn't earning money from
               | ads.
        
               | lordswork wrote:
               | Last time I checked, OpenAI didn't develop transformers.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | brookst wrote:
               | This is starting to sound very paperclippy. Ads fund the
               | AIs to make us click on ads to fund AIs that are even
               | better at getting us to click on even more ads.
        
               | flir wrote:
               | It's ok, as soon as the AI figures out a better way to
               | gather resources, it'll pivot.
               | 
               | (this is not meant to be reassuring).
        
               | temp0826 wrote:
               | Ex Machina vibes
        
               | lubesGordi wrote:
               | Yeah, and look at how some very simple clustering
               | ML/recommender systems impact social/political dynamics
               | all to keep people engaged on the site and maximize
               | chances to click ads ( see youtube/facebook, etc. ).
        
               | wiz21c wrote:
               | Damn right but I don't understand why. That is, why is
               | ads business generating so much profits that it allows to
               | build such ridiculously powerfull devices ? Is it because
               | it's genuinely full of money or is it because Google is
               | so central that it makes tons of money out of lots an
               | dlots and lots of small adverts ?
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | Because there is no incentive for customers to tell
               | businesses what they want, businesses tell their
               | customers what they should want.
        
               | h4kor wrote:
               | My working theory is, that advertising is the overhead
               | cost of doing capitalism. There is a certain percentage
               | of resources which have to be spent on advertising to
               | keep the system functioning. Google is good at grabbing a
               | large portion of a huge pile of money.
        
               | mordae wrote:
               | Not really. It's sufficient to show cool products in "TV"
               | shows (robotic vacuum cleaner in a procedural crime drama
               | might even be a plot device, absorbing murderer's hair to
               | be found by detectives, gasp!).
               | 
               | Coupled with a magazine or a show presenting new product
               | categories for those interested, customers will
               | eventually visit a physical or online shop and check out
               | the goods. And then word of mouth will do the rest.
               | 
               | Aggressive advertising will mostly just help you get
               | ahead of your competitors and perhaps speed up the
               | adoption rate at the cost of increased volatility of the
               | market and to the detriment of people's mental health.
               | 
               | We would be better off regulating aggressive ads away.
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | > Aggressive advertising will mostly just help you get
               | ahead of your competitors
               | 
               | That's a hell of a load-bearing "just" you managed to
               | insert there. Getting ahead of your competitors in market
               | share can be the difference between having a company
               | succeed or fail.
        
               | chromoblob wrote:
               | So if nobody is "getting ahead of competitors", does it
               | mean that "capitalism is not functioning"? (which was the
               | point of the comment to which the reply was)
        
               | SturgeonsLaw wrote:
               | Product placement is still advertising, likewise
               | advertising plays a role in getting people to go to that
               | online or brick and mortar shop instead of some other
               | one.
        
               | chromoblob wrote:
               | I propose a law: nobody can advertise a product without
               | mentioning all the brands which offer same or similar
               | product on the market (and the mention must be neutral or
               | positive).
               | 
               | Or: all advertisers of all brands with a same or similar
               | product must collaborate. Only voluntary input counts as
               | collaboration; if a brand simply doesn't care about
               | presentation of itself in the advertisement, they have
               | trivially collaborated. Easiest way to implement this is
               | giving every owner of all relevant brands a right to veto
               | every entire final advertisement product (this right
               | could also be surrendered, for all or some possible
               | vetoed advertisements, in exchange for something in a
               | contract).
               | 
               | Ignoring flaws of this proposition itself, what could be
               | society's reasons for rejecting it? Does society perhaps
               | want havers of more money to gain further advantage over
               | havers of less money?
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | >nobody can advertise a product without mentioning all
               | the brands which offer same or similar product on the
               | marke
               | 
               | Maybe 50 years ago that would have worked. Today, not so
               | much. Go to Amazon and look, well, just about anything.
               | What is BEHENO, what is DINGEE, what is Etoolia, what is
               | Romedia, what are the over 300 different 6/7 letter
               | companies that show up when I search up some random
               | product.
               | 
               | Unfortunately your consideration causes its own parasite
               | effect of countless companies forming up to feed of the
               | big advertisers budget.
        
               | chromoblob wrote:
               | Since the product is standard, why is it actually bad? If
               | there are too many brands to be included in a single
               | advert, just choose randomly (the lower the price, the
               | higher the probability for a single brand; I don't know
               | the function).
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | Because, in the US, this will quickly fall foul of free
               | speech laws. Over 'public' airwaves maybe you could go
               | some distance with this, but advertising on private
               | property, as long as it is not fraudulent will present a
               | constitutional challenge to what your saying.
               | 
               | And, you're also crating a regulatory nightmare. Say I
               | put up an add for XXYZXX company, and it includes ZZXYZZ
               | and YYXZYY information (I mean totally random picks), and
               | I just happen to have a stake in those companies too. Now
               | you're going to have to track hundreds of thousands of
               | these entities to ensure no fraud is occurring, and in
               | most cases the fines for this kind of behavior are well
               | under the cost of doing business.
               | 
               | Everything you've said so far just creates bigger messes
               | and solves nothing.
        
               | chromoblob wrote:
               | It solves a hypothetical skew towards brands offered by
               | already richer businesses.
               | 
               | About regulation, how hard is it to just audit the random
               | picking procedure?
               | 
               | I now understand that my second variant, with vetoing of
               | final advertisement, is very flawed (one can cheaply
               | obstruct anyone's advertisement by making a company that
               | vetoes any version of it). How about dividing an
               | advertisement into pieces of information solely about
               | each distinct brand, and let every brand owner compose
               | the piece for its brand? Then all pieces are added into
               | final concrete form in a collaboration - I think it would
               | succeed in most cases, and if brand owners can't
               | collaborate, then an independent company will work on it.
               | 
               | Then we need to look how exactly freedom of speech is
               | defined. If it means ability to express views _without
               | attaching any additional information_ , then such freedom
               | is incompatible with my proposal. But if freedom of
               | speech allows attaching additional information as long as
               | base message is preserved, I see no problems. Note that
               | the proposal essentially just forces you to advertise
               | other brands as they wish, along with any advertisement
               | that you do, which (brands) it doesn't mention.
        
               | collaborative wrote:
               | It's a monopoly on eye balls. People don't casually walk
               | in front of domain names, they must find them on Google
               | 
               | As a result, spending ad money on Google is ridiculously
               | expensive, but companies accept this because there is no
               | alternative hoping to "build long lasting relations" with
               | the people who make them pay upwards of 1 dollar per
               | click
        
               | zelphirkalt wrote:
               | At the same time it is also a huge bubble, that Google is
               | just hoping will never burst. People and businesses way
               | overestimate the impact their ads are having and way
               | underestimate the impact, that treating customers well
               | can have.
        
               | sharemywin wrote:
               | I think both are important. Word of mouth is useful and
               | important but no one would use google to search to buy
               | stuff if that was the only way to reach customers.
               | 
               | Also, if your established it probably a good idea not to
               | let new competitors get a foot hold in the market with an
               | easy google win.
               | 
               | It's also pretty effective for local businesses because
               | not a lot of local businesses are tech savvy enough use
               | it effectively.
        
               | quadcore wrote:
               | I definitely think this is the strategy of google
               | leaders, they've heard to much of "how do you monetize
               | your products?" from investors and now they are
               | maximizing profits for that current software generation.
               | I wonder though if that bulk of money will be that much
               | of an advantage when the tides turn. It could attract the
               | wrong kind of leadership amongst other things like
               | customer distrusts and turn the company into an IBM of
               | some sort. Namely, I would rather maximize youtube
               | premium memberships (which is at "only" 50 millions) over
               | ads (surely they've local-maximized the balance between
               | the two as it is) - but its easier said than done.
        
               | cj wrote:
               | > people who make them pay upwards of 1 dollar per click
               | 
               | FWIW, the cheapest (quality) clicks I've seen, at least
               | in the B2B space, is closer to $3/click, and it can
               | quickly balloon to upwards of $10/click especially on
               | company brand names where competitors are bidding on
               | another company's brand name.
               | 
               | Knowing this, I cringe every time I'm screensharing with
               | someone and they search "[B2B Company] login" to login to
               | a tool they use every day. Each login = $2-$10
               | 
               | It's not uncommon for companies to spend $100k+/year JUST
               | bidding on their own company name.
        
               | collaborative wrote:
               | It honestly escapes me how these companies can be
               | sustainable. The whole market is sooo inefficient.
               | Companies also pay crazy money to appear in privileged
               | positions in supermarkets shelves, and they will often
               | pay crazy money for simply being in the supermarket at
               | all
               | 
               | I just don't get where all the marketing money is coming
               | from. Bootstrapping is clearly not an option these days
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | Computers DOUBLED the productivity of the USA since the
               | second world war. All that money went to a few people and
               | groups, and none of it went to average people. For
               | decades, companies have just been sloshing the same giant
               | pile of cash around and around the Ads ecosystem.
               | 
               | That bag of chips did not cost $4 to make, not even a
               | little close.
        
               | collaborative wrote:
               | @h4kor one of my crazy ideas is to cap money companies
               | are allowed to spend on Marketing once they reach a
               | certain size. It would encourage a better form of
               | decentralized capitalism and prevent monopolies
        
               | bee_rider wrote:
               | I wonder if there's some sort of automatic stabilizer
               | that could be applied instead.
               | 
               | Tax ad companies, and spend that money on education. The
               | better ad companies are doing, the more we spend on
               | education, the fewer gullible marks we produce, the worse
               | ad companies will do.
        
               | jack_riminton wrote:
               | Exactly, it's the mechanism for exchanging information in
               | a capitalist economy.
               | 
               | Conversely, in Communist systems they could never get
               | this right. Factories were just told to produce 5 or 10%
               | more than last year, didn't matter if the product quality
               | was worse or if people didn't want it.
        
               | ffgjgf1 wrote:
               | There was some competition amongst consumer goods
               | producers and TV and other ads in the UUSR. High scarcity
               | of good quality stuff meant they didn't need to advertise
               | but there was also an oversupply of junk nobody needed.
               | Those companies has to move their inventories somehow
               | since it was much harder for them to go bankrupt.
        
               | sharemywin wrote:
               | unfortunately pure capitalism has no mechanisms for
               | externalities and information hiding.
        
               | fauigerzigerk wrote:
               | This could easily turn out to be counterproductive. It
               | would provide an additional incentive to hide marketing
               | in all kinds of other business activities rather than
               | openly advertise what's on offer.
               | 
               | Marketing is already difficult to tell apart from other
               | company communications, product documentation, etc. What
               | about a company blog showing how to use their products?
               | Is that marketing or product documentation?
        
               | nazka wrote:
               | No some are into the space industry.
               | 
               | So we can have internet anywhere. To click on ads.
        
               | f6v wrote:
               | How else would I know that "Elon Musk created a TeslaX
               | platform that allows everyone to get rich"? Or was it
               | Pavel Durov... Seriously, I can't even report these on
               | YouTube.
        
               | rapiz wrote:
               | It's ads that makes the market efficient. Potential
               | customers should know the corresponding producers so that
               | the information assumption of a ideal market stands.
        
               | throw10920 wrote:
               | Ads can have both persuasive (propaganda) and informative
               | functions.
               | 
               | Informative ads make the market more efficient.
               | Persuasive ads actively make the market _less_ efficient.
               | 
               | Most ads in the US in 2023 seem to be persuasive.
               | 
               | Perhaps the ad industry would become more useful (and
               | smaller) if we managed to _effectively_ regulate it to
               | significantly reduce the persuasive bits.
               | 
               | I think that most people would support this if you
               | explained it right - from the free-market perspective,
               | this would give you a _better_ market.
        
               | whywhywhywhy wrote:
               | It's not very good at it if it is.
        
           | ec109685 wrote:
           | What evidence is there that Google would be able to out
           | compete nvidia on AI hardware?
        
             | madaxe_again wrote:
             | None. Heck, I can't even search my gmail effectively any
             | more, so if they can't maintain a core product, I doubt
             | they can build a new one of any quality. alphabet are now
             | just a big, bloated catch-up corporation running on inertia
             | and past glory.
             | 
             | I don't think they will exist in 10 years.
        
               | whywhywhywhy wrote:
               | >None. Heck, I can't even search my gmail effectively any
               | more
               | 
               | Their search products have actually gotten worse with AI.
               | Google Images running just off basic image recognition
               | (as in is this the same image) and the context of where
               | they found it was far superior at identifying what an
               | image is than ML Google Image.
               | 
               | The OG version could identify a frame from a movie and
               | provide higher res versions. The ML version goes "errr
               | looks like a woman on a street, here are random photos of
               | unrelated women on unrelated streets with maybe a similar
               | color scheme" close to useless why would anyone want
               | that. Yandex Image search blows it out of the water
               | simply by being Google Image Search from a decade ago
        
               | madaxe_again wrote:
               | This is the kind of stuff that I see as being the crux of
               | their downfall. Snippets have also gone to pot over the
               | last year or so.
               | 
               | The overall theme is that product is no longer the focus,
               | but rather navel-gazing - that's to say, their internal
               | world no longer aligns with the external world, and that
               | is a fundamentally dangerous place for a business.
        
               | adql wrote:
               | I thought I imagined it being worse but yeah...
        
               | Tyr42 wrote:
               | Gmail dev here (but not search), I don't think anything
               | has changed with search. Operators still work too. What's
               | actually wrong?
               | 
               | Do you just have more email now?
        
               | jeodjdodh wrote:
               | > code product
               | 
               | gmail is a freebie! the core product is how they index
               | your messages to create an anonymous profile that they
               | will then offer on reverse bid to advertisers when you do
               | a search or visits an AdWords site.
        
               | endisneigh wrote:
               | Someone who believes Google won't exist in 10 years is
               | delusional beyond words.
        
               | madaxe_again wrote:
               | Yes yes, and the East India Company will reign supreme
               | for all time, Refco is too important to fail, Blockbuster
               | will dominate home entertainment forever, and it's simply
               | inconceivable that a single trader could bring down
               | Baring Brothers, they've been going for centuries!
               | 
               | Businesses fail. _google_ will likely still exist, but
               | alphabet, I don't see a future for - just a gradual
               | withering followed by a collapse and disintegration into
               | myriad properties in a fire sale. They are brittle,
               | overburdened by unity of disparity, culturally adrift,
               | and they aren't taking risks any more. Inertia will keep
               | it all going for a while, but not forever.
               | 
               | Sure, I may be wrong, but I do put my money where my
               | mouth is, and I am right more often than not.
        
               | endisneigh wrote:
               | you originally said 10 years. so hopelessly delusional
               | lol. since you're so confident let's bet $10,000. By your
               | claim let's bet by 2034 (I'll give you some extra time).
               | Alphabet Corporation and all subsidiaries will no longer
               | exist. If they do I get your $10K. If it does not you get
               | my $10K.
               | 
               | We can both give the money to a mutually trusted third
               | party now.
        
               | shubb wrote:
               | Your reply is interesting because you strongly believe
               | alphabet will fail but only supported that by arguing
               | that over the very long term so companies fail.
               | 
               | I see a lot of hate for alphabet on HN. It seems very
               | emotional. I think people feel personally betrayed by
               | thier bad behaviours because they were 'supposed to be
               | better'.
               | 
               | The thing is, there are a lot of companies you can hate.
               | Exon, mcdonalds, blackrock, even Microsoft, there are
               | people who are very mad at these companies.
               | 
               | That's not an argument that the company is doomed. If you
               | are really putting your money where your mouth is (what
               | shorting google?) Then I hope you have a better reasoning
               | as to why they will fail not just eventually but this
               | year.
        
               | madaxe_again wrote:
               | I don't hate alphabet - neither do I love them. I look at
               | them through the lens of history. You on the other hand
               | seem to be emotionally wounded by my assessment of them.
               | 
               | None of the companies you list are likely to collapse
               | soon, as they remain focussed on their various missions,
               | and have a unity of purpose. Out of all of them, I think
               | Microsoft is the most likely to fail, as they are likely
               | to be blindsided when the user-focussed desktop OS era
               | ends. Their diversification efforts have been a mixed
               | bag, and without windows, they are far, far less
               | significant.
               | 
               | What I do look at is sentiment analysis - what other
               | people feel and think about businesses, as that drives
               | the market.
               | 
               | No, I don't short, as just buying equities which are
               | beginning significant growth is just as effective and
               | doesn't drive demise - I held goog for nearly 20 years,
               | and sold off late '21, as I think they've peaked, and
               | anything from here on is speculative froth.
               | 
               | You'll note I keep saying "I think", rather than making
               | statements of fact - because this is purely what I think
               | - I am not a Sybil.
               | 
               | You seem to have missed this:
               | 
               | >> They are brittle, overburdened by unity of disparity,
               | culturally adrift, and they aren't taking risks any more.
        
               | shubb wrote:
               | For context, I have never worked for or with google, and
               | don't use their products much other than search. So I
               | don't have much emotional connection to the company. My
               | comments were more motivated by a kind of concern.
               | 
               | My perception is that Google split into a number of
               | focussed business units when they became Alphabet, with
               | the Google component being execution focussed and the
               | more speculative stuff spun out into other group
               | companies like deepmind, waymo, etc. That's why the
               | Google unit stopped doing nice incubator projects that we
               | were all excited about.
               | 
               | From what I've seen, this cash cow execution business
               | unit has been fairly effective - in particular they've
               | done a good job of entering the cloud market space
               | producing a differentiated product that is penetrating
               | their target customers. They have not been able to
               | compete with Microsofts excelent and deeply embedded IT
               | sales capability, so they've done well to go after people
               | with big problems that other vendors more civillian
               | offerings are not so great for. They are currently the
               | first choice platform for AI training for instance.
               | 
               | I'd contrast this to Facebook who seem to be trying to
               | become a deep tech VR hardware vendor in the same
               | business unit as their cash cow entertainemet and
               | advertising business which has confused investors and
               | probably distracted their focus.
               | 
               | We can see that Google has innovated. For instance, a lot
               | of Tela's stock price is based on the idea that they are
               | going to run autonomous taxis, and instead of owning cars
               | we will just hail a Tesla when we need one. Telsa does
               | not run autonomous taxis, but you can ride a Google Waymo
               | taxi today in Pheonix, and they are running autonmous
               | trucks which is a big industry Tesla aren't even
               | attempting yet. They are doing a lot in medicine and
               | medical devices. This seems a lot more diversified and
               | innovative than other companies - it's just not as
               | visible to the HN community as an RSS reader or some
               | other internet thing we care about.
               | 
               | We can also say that... on the AI thing, I think it's
               | very early days. Microsoft have a shakey looking deal
               | with the first mover, but Alphabet and Facebook have the
               | advantage of actually using AI extensively in their real
               | buisnesses and may be able to deliver product market fit
               | better. Time will tell.
               | 
               | On the stocks front, I agree with your overall thesis - I
               | think it's harder for these conglomerates to grow than a
               | new company just because they are already giants in their
               | niche and even adding a new niche generates less growth
               | in percentage terms than for a smaller company starting
               | from a lower number. I just wouldn't actually bet against
               | google as much as I would some of the others.
        
               | ffgjgf1 wrote:
               | > Out of all of them, I think Microsoft is the most
               | likely to fail, as they are likely to be blindsided when
               | the user-focussed desktop OS
               | 
               | That might have been a reasonable assessment back in
               | Balmer's era. But what you saying has already happened
               | years ago...
               | 
               | They have mostly reinvented themselves since then.
               | Enterprise/office isn't going anywhere. Xbox if fine too.
               | And there is a lot of growth in their cloud/etc.
               | business.
               | 
               | IMHO out of Google, Amazon & Facebook, Microsoft seems to
               | be the least dysfunctional and and general best
               | positioned one to be successful in the future.
        
               | avereveard wrote:
               | Xbox doesn't seem fine. I think it's propped up by game
               | pass having cross platform title access with windows but
               | it's still under the Xbox balance sheet, but growth and
               | number of exclusives doesn't paint a healthy picture.
        
               | ffgjgf1 wrote:
               | Yeah by Xbox I mean the console + game pass + PC/Xbox
               | gaming division. The console itself at this point is not
               | much more than a cheap(ish) locked down gaming PC.
        
               | mejutoco wrote:
               | but IBM still exists, and Microsoft after missing the
               | mobile market. Even Nokia exists.
        
           | tbruckner wrote:
           | Some of the specs seem inaccurate here, HBM has been present
           | in NVIDIA datacenter GPUs for awhile now. LPDDR is for their
           | gaming hardware.
        
             | wmf wrote:
             | The GH200 uses a combination of HBM3 for the GPU and LPDDR5
             | for the CPU but it's a unified memory system so the GPU can
             | access all the RAM. Gaming GPUs use GDDR which is a third
             | flavor.
        
           | the_svd_doctor wrote:
           | The network topology of TPUv4 is far far inferior though.
           | It's a torus. No switches.
        
           | dweekly wrote:
           | Just want to flag a potential unit issue: 900gbps vs 300GB/s?
           | 
           | Also worth noting - TPUv4 uses a 6-way 3D torus interconnect
           | vs the 3-way "multi ToR" NVLINK topology; the total bisection
           | bandwidth of the TPUv4 pod is over 1PB/s!
           | 
           | Can't wait to see what TPUv5 looks like. As you say, it's
           | probably already chugging away with v6 on track to tape out
           | in a year.
           | 
           | That said, I think NVidia has nailed bringing the ecosystem
           | along, and I think making the whole setup look more like "one
           | huge GPU" could simplify a lot of ML programming.
           | 
           | I am actually disappointed I haven't seen more of that style
           | in CPU programming. Where's my 20,000 core 100TB RAM VM
           | instance?
        
             | llm_nerd wrote:
             | >900gbps vs 300GB/s?
             | 
             | The nvidia device uses a fabric with 900 GBps _switched_
             | fabric between any of the 256 nodes in the system. The
             | TPUv4 3d torus network is basically a ring network of 56
             | GBps connections creating separate rings. From a raw
             | perspective, the nvidia solution is the _overwhelming_
             | winner. There is absolutely no contest.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | londons_explore wrote:
             | > Where's my 20,000 core 100TB RAM VM instance?
             | 
             | You could simulate this with a bunch of regular machines
             | and a networked hypervisor.
             | 
             | You could do some kind of smart caching so that processes
             | rarely need to wait to access RAM stored on a remote
             | machine.
             | 
             | Combined that with a big lock eliding/speculation scheme
             | (ie. When a process reads memory that might have been
             | written by a remote CPU, you continue as if it hadn't, and
             | if you later find out that data was written then you
             | rollback). These rollbacks 'undo' all work done in however
             | many microseconds it takes for data to travel from one side
             | of the machine cluster to another.
             | 
             | Reads of RAM that aren't cached yet on the local node can
             | also be speculated - you just assume that RAM contained
             | null bytes and continue execution, rolling back and
             | replaying when the actual data arrives.
             | 
             | So if you can make sure that processes are contending for
             | locks _and_ writing conflicting data less often than once
             | per system-roundtrip-latency, then you should get a high
             | performance system.
        
               | mochomocha wrote:
               | This is certainly a very interesting thought to entertain
               | and your ideas make sense. One thing that makes things
               | harder on the CPU side in this hypothetical scenario is
               | that CPUs tend to execute much more diverse
               | instructions/computations than GPUs. So all the caching &
               | speculation you mention is probably all the more
               | important.
        
               | londons_explore wrote:
               | After writing the comment, I considered writing a little
               | toy example just to try out the idea... It would be neat
               | to see Linux boot with 1000 CPU's...
               | 
               | But upon further thought, a lot of things such a system
               | would need are actually rather inefficient to implement
               | in software (ie. rollbackable RAM), yet quite cheap in
               | hardware (for example rollbackable RAM can be implemented
               | with regular RAM plus either a buffer of 'overwritten
               | data' or a write queue)
        
               | samstave wrote:
               | A write queue with a dupe-back-end to say a blob on S3 or
               | whatever would be interesting for mirrors of outcomes
               | could be stored.
               | 
               | The biggest issue it seems is bandwidth and humans'
               | patience for a response...
        
             | whatusername wrote:
             | If I'm reading the docs right (TBH - I'm probably not) it
             | looks like on a z16 you can get 200 cores and 40TB of
             | Memory on a single "VM" (LPAR).
             | 
             | So 1/100th of the CPU and 40% of the RAM. (I suspect the
             | RAM comparison is reasonable - I'm not sure about how to
             | compare the CPU's).
        
             | inhumantsar wrote:
             | Nvidia's is 900GB/s, not gbps
        
         | epolanski wrote:
         | As always in economics it is about volumes and margins.
         | 
         | If the competitors (mainly AMD, Intel and to some extent ARM)
         | will keep seeing growing volumes and insane margins they will
         | be attracted to bring to invest and take part of that market.
         | 
         | Till now gaming GPU market did not bring to AMD the necessary
         | margins to really push them to bring a better competition to
         | Nvidia. Even 10/15 years ago when ATI was way ahead of Nvidia
         | technologically for 2/3 years (the HD 4000 and HD 5000
         | generations vs the Nvidia flops of the 9000, 200 and 400
         | series) Nvidia was posting billions of profits and ATI posted a
         | whole...19 millions of profits across 3 years.
         | 
         | But today's GPU market thanks to it's non-gaming sales is much
         | bigger to ignore (which is why Intel entered it as well) and
         | those players will likely react.
         | 
         | You don't need to have the best premier product, you need to
         | have your products good and priced well enough that they will
         | be chosen over the competitor's.
        
         | usernew wrote:
         | Is there really a market for a response though? Now, I'll be
         | honest that I know very little about this market. What I do
         | know from doing a decade of presales before covid hit, is that
         | people who buy GPUs go for aggregate max on a big node farm.
         | Now, most of my clients who bought GPU-heavy scale-out nodes
         | were in the financial industry, so maybe deep learning stuff is
         | different. Their workloads were massively parallel, and could
         | scale out instead of needing something singularly fast.
         | 
         | So I guess my question is - what use case is there for a huge
         | truck that goes 200mph and take 4 trips, when you could just
         | buy 16 regular trucks, and move your apartment in the same
         | amount of time at half the cost.
        
           | fragmede wrote:
           | The reason that analogy falls short is because it's easier to
           | drive the huge truck at 200mph than it is to find 16 truck
           | drivers. It's really neat when you figure out how to
           | map/reduce your algorithm so you _can_ parallelize it, but it
           | would be even easier if you didn 't even have to in the first
           | place. And that's assuming that it is even parallelizable in
           | the first place. Not all algorithms _can_ be optimized like
           | that and needs a bigger system to run on.
        
           | mejutoco wrote:
           | Using something like Stable diffusion and generating all the
           | frames at once (for video) as a single image. For that kind
           | of usage one needs to have ram for the whole image. This
           | setup could generate videos like that in the same time as I
           | generate an image on my home computer.
        
         | makestuff wrote:
         | I have to wonder why these engineers are not paid millions of
         | dollars per year. As a lowly backend dev this seems so much
         | more impressive than my new API that retrieves something from a
         | database...
        
           | GuB-42 wrote:
           | Because 10 engineers paid hundreds of thousands a year do a
           | better job than 1 engineer paid millions.
           | 
           | And that's because it is very high skill work, otherwise, it
           | would have been 100 engineers paid tens of thousands.
        
           | akomtu wrote:
           | Engineers are really poor negotiators, probably because they
           | neglect "people skills".
        
             | ksec wrote:
             | _Hardware_ Engineers are really poor negotiators.
        
           | jjtheblunt wrote:
           | perhaps they are, even if in stock share price appreciation?
        
       | valine wrote:
       | There were rumors floating around that GPT-4 was going to be a
       | 100 trillion parameter model. Those rumors seemed ridiculous in
       | hindsight, but this announcement makes me rethink how ridiculous
       | it really was. 100 Terabytes of GPU memory is exactly what you
       | need to train that class of model.
       | 
       | However, I'm not even sure enough text data exists in the world
       | to saturate 100T parameters. Maybe if you generated massive
       | quantities of text with GPT-4 and used that dataset as your pre-
       | training data. Training on the entirety of the internet then
       | becomes just another fine tuning step. The bulk of the training
       | could be on some 400TB dataset of generated text.
        
         | jandrese wrote:
         | I have to wonder how much improvement you would get with a 100
         | trillion parameter model. There seems to be diminishing returns
         | in model size. That effort could almost certainly be better
         | spent.
        
         | ericd wrote:
         | I think we're going to start seeing learning based on all the
         | video out there. Text is just computationally easier, but video
         | contains a lot of information that people rarely write about,
         | because it's completely obvious to humans who grew up in the
         | real world.
         | 
         | Also, I think training in simulated realities will be big,
         | especially for learning how to interact with complex systems,
         | for developing strategic planning heuristics.
        
         | martinko wrote:
         | > Maybe if you generated massive quantities of text with GPT-4
         | and used that dataset as your pre-training data
         | 
         | Hello spurious regression
        
         | fomine3 wrote:
         | Let's record every conversation on Android to collect training
         | data! Anyone can do the math?
        
         | GaggiX wrote:
         | https://huggingface.co/docs/transformers/perf_train_gpu_one#...
         | 
         | You can't train a 100T model with "only" 100TB of VRAM, you
         | need for each parameters 4 bytes + 4 bytes (gradient) + 8 bytes
         | (AdamW optimizer) + forward activations that depends on the
         | batch size, sequence length etc, maybe more if you use mixed
         | precision and also you need to distribute the weights.
        
         | in3d wrote:
         | These 100T rumors were ridiculous from the start, not just in
         | hindsight.
        
         | sbierwagen wrote:
         | As far as I can tell, the "100 trillion" number comes from an
         | interview with the CEO of Cerebras when he was doing press for
         | the WSE-2 release in 2021:
         | https://www.wired.com/story/cerebras-chip-cluster-neural-net...
        
         | EvgeniyZh wrote:
         | Rule of thumb is that you need ~20 tokens per parameter. The
         | average token size is ~4 characters, probably more for larger
         | models where you want larger dictionary, but for simplicity
         | I'll say it's 5 bytes to make numbers round. So you need 100
         | bytes of text data per parameter, or 10 PB for 100T model. Now,
         | recent research says that you can reuse the same data like 4
         | times before it becomes hindering performance but it doesn't
         | help much in our case.
         | 
         | But in this case what is really ridiculous is the compute
         | requirement. The required compute for optimal model growth
         | roughly quadratically (both your model and your data grow
         | linearly). So for 100T model you need 1e30 FLOPs. This machine
         | gives you 1e18 FLOPs per second. It will take 30k years to
         | train this model on one of these (or 30k of these to train it
         | in a year, but then utilization will start kicking in).
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | "The best time to start training a 100T param model was 30k
           | years ago, the second best time is now."
        
             | rowanG077 wrote:
             | That's obviously false under the assumption computing power
             | will increase as it has in the past.
        
               | moffkalast wrote:
               | For the uninitiated, it's a tree planting quote.
        
             | EvgeniyZh wrote:
             | Probably the best time to start train 100T model is never
        
               | samstave wrote:
               | What if you could train an AI with a desired outcome to
               | their answers?
               | 
               | I.E. ; " _answer this question where the outcome is the
               | most beneficial to quality of life_ "
        
               | EvgeniyZh wrote:
               | I'll take your question further: what if we have
               | unlimited data (say some crazy rich RL environment or way
               | to produce high quality and diverse synthetic data)? You
               | still have to get these 1e30 FLOPs. Lets say you can
               | connect 100 of these bad boys together with 40%
               | utilization, with total 4e19 FLOPs/s. Assume also Moore's
               | law keeps working indefinitely. When should we start
               | training 100T model on it to get is as early as possible?
               | We wait x years and the start training on machine with
               | 4e19*2^(x/2) FLOPs/s. Turns out the answers is ~16 years,
               | after which we'll have 1e22 FLOPs/s and 1e30 FLOPs will
               | take another 3 years.
        
               | moffkalast wrote:
               | > life
               | 
               | A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.
               | _unplugs self_
        
               | chromoblob wrote:
               | A properly designed AI agent would do exactly that.
        
           | samstave wrote:
           | I am not going to be embarrassed for the following Q ;
           | 
           | Please ELI5 where I can have a glossary of AI/ML terms -
           | where do I get fluency in speaking about Tokens, Models,
           | Training, Parameters, etc...
           | 
           | Please dont be Snarky - This is info that everyone younger
           | than I am needs as well.
           | 
           | Is there a Canon? Where is it?
        
             | eamsen wrote:
             | At the risk of sounding snarky, https://chat.openai.com
             | would be a good introduction, followed by books, which GPT
             | could recommend.
        
             | rocmcd wrote:
             | I'd recommend starting here:
             | 
             | https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2023/02/what-is-
             | chatgpt-...
             | 
             | It's pretty lengthy but doesn't require a PhD to
             | understand. If you can get to the end of it you'll have a
             | much better understanding of what's going on.
        
             | EvgeniyZh wrote:
             | I have no idea tbh. I learned these a while ago (~7 years
             | ago), and the materials I used then are heavily outdated
             | and also I won't be able to remember what they were. I
             | guess any intro course to deep learning should talk about
             | these. Stanford ones used to be good. Maybe someone else
             | can be more useful about it.
        
         | arugulum wrote:
         | > Those rumors seemed ridiculous in hindsight
         | 
         | No, those rumors seemed ridiculous even then. Many AI
         | influencers were posting some of the most absurd material,
         | often makes basic mistakes (like confusing training tokens with
         | parameters), but anyone in the field could have easily told you
         | that 100T parameters sounded ridiculous.
         | 
         | On that note, "100 Terabytes of GPU memory is exactly what you
         | need to train that class of model." is also likely false.
         | That's how much you'd need to fit such a model into memory at 1
         | byte per param. Not train it.
        
         | andai wrote:
         | For the numerically challenged like me: 100TB is 100 trillion
         | bytes, giving you 1 byte per parameter at 100T params.
         | 
         | LLaMA can apparently run quantized to 4 bits per param (not
         | sure if worth it though), which would allow you to run a 200TB
         | model on one of these cards if I'm understanding right.
        
           | renonce wrote:
           | You can't quantize it for training due to numerical
           | instability. For inference you don't usually use such a big
           | cluster.
        
           | Tepix wrote:
           | > LLaMA can apparently run quantized to 4 bits per param (
           | _not sure if worth it though_ )
           | 
           | From the GPTQ paper https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.17323:
           | 
           | "... _with negligible accuracy degradation relative to the
           | uncompressed baseline_ "
        
           | valine wrote:
           | That would work for inference, but for efficient training
           | you'd also want you training set to fit in memory.
        
           | airgapstopgap wrote:
           | I think people talking about a 100T GPT didn't mean a dense
           | transformer but some sort of extreme Mixture-of-Experts which
           | is much more amenable to low-resource setups and complicates
           | this discussion.
           | 
           | In any case, it's almost certainly not bigger than 1T, even
           | if it's not a dense transformer (PaLM-2 is and makes do with
           | 340B, but it isn't exactly on par).
        
         | flangola7 wrote:
         | There is much more out there than text. Audio, visual, touch,
         | smell. Text isn't something humans directly train on, but
         | representations of text from our senses.
         | 
         | GPT-4 was trained on image data. Besides gaining understanding
         | of image content it also showed improved language abilities
         | over a GPT-4 trained with only text. Facebook is working on a
         | smaller model with text, image, video, audio, lidar depth,
         | infrared heat, and 6-axis motion data. If a GPT-4 was trained
         | with data like that, what capabilities would it have? Rumor
         | says we will know in a few months.
        
           | xen2xen1 wrote:
           | John Conner, is that you?
        
         | Joeri wrote:
         | There may not be enough text content on the internet, but
         | there's plenty of audio and video content, and there has
         | already been some research about connecting that as an input to
         | an LLM. So far we've seen that the more diverse the training
         | data the more versatile the model, so I suspect multi-modal
         | input training is inevitably where LLM's are going.
        
         | ivalm wrote:
         | You don't really need to fit fully in memory. Memory
         | requirement to train is
         | 
         | ~6DP * precision
         | 
         | Where D is number of tokens*mini batch size and P is number of
         | parameters.
         | 
         | So if you want to fit fully into memory with a mini batch of 1,
         | context window 32k, and 16 bit precision, that's
         | 144e12/6/32e3/2 = 375M param.
         | 
         | If you apply one token at a time then
         | 
         | 144e12/6/2 = 12 T param
         | 
         | Ofc, in reality you have model parallelism as well...
        
         | Taek wrote:
         | The general rule of thumb that I'm familiar with is that you
         | need about 80 bytes of VRAM per parameter when you are doing
         | training. Inference is different and a lot more efficient, and
         | LoRA is also different and more efficient, but training a base
         | model requires a LOT of memory.
         | 
         | A machine like this would top out below 2 trillion parameters
         | using the training algorithms that I'm familiar with.
        
           | renonce wrote:
           | I suppose it would be 12 bytes? 4 bytes for base model, 4
           | bytes for optimizer momentum and 4 bytes for optimizer second
           | moment EWA.
        
             | Taek wrote:
             | I don't know what the breakdown is, but I know there was
             | code for training the llama models on a DGX (640 GB of
             | VRAM, repo is now gone), and it could only train the 7b
             | model without using deepspeed 3 (offloading).
             | 
             | The ML engineers in my group chat say "1 DGX to train 7b at
             | full speed, 2 for 13b, 4 for 30b, 8 for 65b"
        
           | mirekrusin wrote:
           | Why 80? It's matrix operations on 4 byte numbers for single
           | precision.
        
             | KeplerBoy wrote:
             | Because you need a lot more information to perform back-
             | propagation.
        
               | mirekrusin wrote:
               | It's not "a lot more" information, it's holding
               | derivative (single number) per parameter, right?
        
               | gmueckl wrote:
               | Not the GP, but I believe that they are talking about the
               | size of the training data set in relation to the model
               | size.
        
               | mirekrusin wrote:
               | You don't need to and can't really load all training
               | data.
               | 
               | For LLMs you need to load single row of context size,
               | that's vector of ie. 8k numbers, which is 32kB for single
               | precision floats.
        
               | calaphos wrote:
               | For automatic differentiation (backpropagation) you need
               | to store the intermediate results per layer of the
               | forward pass. With checkpointing you can only store every
               | nth layer and recompute the rest accordingly to reduce
               | memory requirements in favor of more compute.
        
               | mirekrusin wrote:
               | What intermediate results you need to store?
               | 
               | For backpropagation you take the diff between actual and
               | expected output and you go backwards to calculate
               | derivate and apply it with optimiser - that's 8 extra
               | bytes for single precision floats per trainable
               | parameter.
               | 
               | Why do you need 80?
        
               | ioedward wrote:
               | You also need the optimizer (e.g. Adam)'s state, which is
               | usually double the parameter's size. So if using fp16,
               | one parameter takes up 6 bytes in memory.
        
               | mirekrusin wrote:
               | Yes, if you use ADAM - but it doesn't add up to 80, does
               | it?
               | 
               | Even for fp64 it adds only 16 bytes.
               | 
               | RMSPRop, Adagrad have half of this overhead.
               | 
               | SGD has no optimizer overhead of course.
        
               | rfoo wrote:
               | It's not per parameter, you also need to hold activations
               | for back prop to work.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | mirekrusin wrote:
               | You need activations for inference as well.
               | 
               | But all of that (trainable parameters, activations,
               | optimizer state) is like 12 bytes per trainable
               | parameter, not 80.
        
         | nomel wrote:
         | > However, I'm not even sure enough text data exists in the
         | world
         | 
         | I hope these models move significantly beyond text at some
         | point. For backend programmers it's ok, but for the rest of the
         | technical world (circuits, mechanical engineering, front end,
         | sound, etc), it's fairly limited.
        
           | liamwire wrote:
           | My understanding is that this is already the case, see PaLM-E
           | as one such example of a multimodal model.
        
       | belltaco wrote:
       | Chrome will still find a way to eat all that up and lag.
        
         | boredemployee wrote:
         | Best comment of the day!
        
         | parker_mountain wrote:
         | Epic meme sir, here's your updoot
        
       | rvz wrote:
       | Celebrating new ways to further burn up the planet rather than
       | discovering more efficient and better ways for training,
       | inference and fine-tuning AI systems without needing to scale up
       | more GPUs, TPUs, data centers and water for the same purpose.
       | 
       | The end result of this announcement is another expensive system
       | only available to the same incumbent of tech giants with tens of
       | billions at their disposal.
        
         | renewiltord wrote:
         | We found a way: nuclear fission reactors. So that problem is
         | solved.
        
           | rvz wrote:
           | > We found a way: nuclear fission reactors.
           | 
           | Nope. I'm talking about _efficient methods in training,
           | inferencing and fine-tuning these AI models_ that doesn 't
           | require lots of data centers, TPUs, GPUs, etc. You're talking
           | about something else.
           | 
           | Petrol and diesel cars are already burning the planet, but
           | the main difference is, that there are efficient alternatives
           | available today like electric cars to use instead.
           | 
           | AI (Deep learning) however, does _not_ have any viable and
           | efficient methods in training, fine-turning these AI models,
           | at all [0] [1] and wastes a tremendous amount of resources,
           | all to keep up with scalability.
           | 
           | So that problem is still NOT solved after a decade of using
           | GPUs, the wastage is getting worse.
           | 
           | [0] https://gizmodo.com/chatgpt-ai-water-185000-gallons-
           | training...
           | 
           | [1] https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/chatgpt-data-centre-
           | water...
        
             | qwertox wrote:
             | > efficient methods in training, inferencing and fine-
             | tuning these AI models
             | 
             | Which can also be archived by training more with the same
             | amount of spent energy.
             | 
             | Why learn about training ("make training more efficient")
             | on old hardware, which is more energy inefficient?
        
               | rvz wrote:
               | It goes more fundamental than that in the algorithms and
               | it should not take tens of billions of dollars with
               | multiple data centers to train, learn, fine-tune and do
               | inference with these AI models. A decade later, there are
               | no viable alternatives to solve that instead of the
               | costly replacement of hardware with more expensive
               | hardware.
               | 
               | Add that towards scalability and you will realize that
               | training AI models scales terribly with more data as it
               | is very energy and time inefficient. Even if you replace
               | all the hardware in the data centers it still wouldn't
               | reduce the emissions regardless and replacing them also
               | costs at most billions either way. That is my the entire
               | point.
               | 
               | So that does nothing to solve the issue. Only ignores and
               | prolongs it.
        
               | smoldesu wrote:
               | > A decade later, there are no viable alternatives to
               | solve that instead of the costly replacement of hardware
               | with more expensive hardware.
               | 
               | I mean, that's the root of scaling as a principle, right?
               | 
               | You _could_ viably start training an AI on your cell
               | phone. It would be completely useless, lack meaningful
               | parameter saturation and take months to reach an
               | inferencing checkpoint, but you _could_ do it. Nvidia is
               | offering a similar system to people, but at a scale that
               | doesn 't suck like a cellphone does. Businesses can then
               | choose how much power they need on-site, or rent it from
               | a cloud provider.
               | 
               | If a product like this convinces some customers to ditch
               | older and less efficient training silicon, I don't see
               | how it's any more antagonistic than other CPU designers
               | with perennial product updates.
        
             | detrites wrote:
             | > efficient methods in training, inferencing and fine-
             | tuning these AI models that doesn't require lots of data
             | centers, TPUs, GPUs, etc.
             | 
             | Exactly the types of problems future AI models could solve.
             | 
             | Dire climate alarms are based on the predictions made using
             | models. As modelling advances as a field, both predictions,
             | and solutions become more and more voluminous and accurate,
             | along with revealing mistakes and failures of prior models.
             | 
             | Anyone concerned with climate should rally behind this kind
             | of general progress. Further, it simply is progressing, and
             | fields that don't embrace it, will be left behind. We're in
             | the midst of an unprecedented revolution which touches all.
        
           | anaganisk wrote:
           | Yet, the climate is still changing. Inflation is rising. The
           | world definitely has advanced but never became a better
           | place.
        
             | renewiltord wrote:
             | The world has never been better. This is an incredible time
             | to be alive.
        
               | gwoolhurme wrote:
               | I don't feel that way personally... I have Nth level
               | anxiety, maybe even N+1 level anxiety about losing my job
               | to AI. Maybe in the future whoever comes next can enjoy
               | things, but this literally keeps me up at night. With
               | talks of extinction, job loss, etc. I feel like I wish I
               | wasn't alive at this time.
        
         | metaphor wrote:
         | > _The end result of this announcement is another expensive
         | system only available to the same incumbent of tech giants with
         | tens of billions at their disposal._
         | 
         | Certainly wasn't the case when a public research university
         | partnership seeded by a generous donation from Nvidia co-
         | founder/UF alumnus Chris Malachowsky was formally announced[1]
         | shortly after DGX A100 launch[2] several years ago, never mind
         | the handful of other academic early adopters mentioned in the
         | press release.
         | 
         | Of course, we tend to conveniently forget such exogenous
         | details.
         | 
         | [1] https://news.ufl.edu/2020/07/nvidia-partnership/
         | 
         | [2] https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidias-new-ampere-
         | data-c...
        
       | ch33zer wrote:
       | Have people experimented with distributed training of parts of
       | the model to avoid needing these absolutely massive GPUs? Anyone
       | have pointers to large scale distributed training done recently?
        
         | nojito wrote:
         | Yes. OpenAI is a heavy user of Ray.io
         | 
         | https://thenewstack.io/how-ray-a-distributed-ai-framework-he...
        
         | aseipp wrote:
         | The DGX described here is a distributed system in the sense
         | that many nodes, each with their own GPUs, exist and are part
         | of the overall whole. They are connected over Infiniband and
         | use RDMA in order to read/write memory across the cluster.
         | Therefore training is also distributed among the nodes in the
         | sense that each node takes part of the process.
         | 
         | The difference is that Nvidia's software and hardware stack
         | combined makes all these systems, all these aggregate GPUs,
         | look like One Really Big GPU. Not hundreds of small ones.
         | That's not only good for users because they can take existing
         | programs and migrate them to these big machines and get
         | improved performance, but also good because it's generally much
         | easier to program "one big machine" as opposed to programming
         | and orchestrating many small ones. This is an attractive
         | proposition for many but it requires an insane amount of
         | integration to achieve.
         | 
         | So, the major differentiator here isn't the lack of or
         | existence of many discrete machines connected together. It's
         | the programming model, at this scale, that's different. And
         | Nvidia is way ahead of everyone else here in terms of
         | programming models; once full heterogeneous memory management
         | for CUDA arrives in a stable consumer driver, it'll be a
         | massive change for others to catch up with.
         | 
         | What you might also be referring to is the idea of "distributed
         | training", or what is called "ensemble learning" where you
         | individually train a bunch of small unique models that, when
         | combined together, perform better than if they were one giant
         | model (or at least are as accurate/efficient as a giant model.)
         | It's "The P2P model" of training because you can take lots of
         | small models and collectively aggregate them. That's an open
         | problem people are attacking but not really relevant in the
         | case of the DGX.
         | 
         | Many hyperscalers, such as Microsoft and their project
         | "Brainwave", have very complex heterogeneous AI datacenter
         | stacks consisting of GPUs, FPGAs, TPUs and CPUs. (Google
         | "Microsoft Brainwave" for some papers.) This DGX is positioned
         | as an alternative to that but also as a tool for their
         | customers to use since many want to train large models
         | efficiently.
        
         | Aromasin wrote:
         | Yes, certainly. One industry use-case that comes to mind if
         | Baidu; white-paper link below [1]. Pretty much all the large
         | model developers distribute their model training across
         | hardware in some way, using a blend of GPU/TPU/FPGA
         | accelerators across multiple CPU nodes. Moving all the data
         | around is expensive though, in both power consumption and time,
         | which is why NVIDIA's new system would be of interest.
         | 
         | [1] http://research.baidu.com/Public/uploads/5e76df66c467b.pdf
        
           | ch33zer wrote:
           | This is fantastic, thanks.
        
         | wongarsu wrote:
         | The issue is that distributed training needs high bandwidth and
         | very low latency to be efficient. In a single computer you can
         | fit about 8-10 GPUs, or if you go to extremes like in this
         | system you might fit 16. To scale beyond that, you connect
         | multiple computers in the same rack via Infiniband (a optical
         | fibre network solution, the system in the article comes with a
         | 400G Infiniband network adapter).
         | 
         | But systems that can host many GPUs tend to be expensive, and
         | electricity is expensive, so at scale the expensive GPUs make
         | sense. For a homebrew solution you can stick four consumer GPUs
         | in a case and might save a buck.
        
         | bogwog wrote:
         | There's also Petals: https://petals.ml/
        
         | fock wrote:
         | this is distributed training with RDMA-aware and directly
         | interconnected GPUs?
        
       | iaw wrote:
       | How far are we from fully modeling the human brain? I mean
       | besides an easy way to identify all the neuronal connections...
       | 
       | This makes me feel like we're close to that one terrifying short-
       | story.
        
         | ChatGTP wrote:
         | Wouldn't modelling the human brain mean we'd be using less
         | power? We're using brute force to try get similar results to
         | what the brain does.
        
         | predictabl3 wrote:
         | Sorry if I'm missing an obvious reference, but what short story
         | do you mean?
         | 
         | (edit: thanks for both replies already, and any others that
         | might fit; I understand now the reference was likely to Asimov)
        
           | mensetmanusman wrote:
           | https://users.ece.cmu.edu/~gamvrosi/thelastq.html
        
           | iaw wrote:
           | https://qntm.org/mmacevedo
        
         | renonce wrote:
         | For many applications there is no need to fully model the human
         | brain. An approximation of a particular aspect would be
         | sufficient in most cases. We didn't build aeroplanes by fully
         | modeling a bird, we just need aerodynamics.
        
         | itissid wrote:
         | When AI becomes good enough we will maybe we will stop thinking
         | about trying to imitate human brains. If we viewed our brain's
         | decision making power objectively we can find several flaws,
         | for example our heuristics to make quick decisions for mundane
         | things is also our greatest weakness(short sightedness). We are
         | poor at incorporating data to make good decisions and
         | constantly bias due to some external stimuli.
         | 
         | Why would you want to make anything close to the brain? What
         | real scientific or engineering or humanitarian uses does doing
         | that even have? AI is already and going forward should strive
         | to be a groundup of redesign of intelligence.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | notamy wrote:
           | > Why would you want to make anything close to the brain?
           | What real scientific or engineering or humanitarian uses does
           | doing that even have?
           | 
           | To have models of the human brain that we can poke at and
           | change and tinker with and etc., so that we can get better
           | ideas of how therapy techniques, medications, ... will impact
           | the actual real people that might benefit from them.
        
         | neurostimulant wrote:
         | Is human consciousness just a product of neural networks, or is
         | there other additional mechanisms we're not aware of?
        
         | dsign wrote:
         | The question that interests me is how far are we from modelling
         | a human cell, neuron or not? Because that's how we cure cancer.
        
         | TheAlchemist wrote:
         | You would need to define what you mean by 'modeling the human
         | brain'. If it means AGI or anything similar, then we're very
         | far.
         | 
         | To paraphrase an analogy I've heard somewhere (in similar
         | context) - We're building better and better ladders, maybe even
         | lifts with this last push in ML field. But the brain is on the
         | moon - even the best lifts won't get us there.
        
         | tbenst wrote:
         | We are massively far away from modeling the human brain. First
         | of all, no one can agree what level is necessary to model the
         | brain, and that varies tremendously by scientific question.
         | Personally, my lower limit would be something like the
         | computational package Neuron which models voltages across axon
         | compartments and distribution of ion channels, My upper limit
         | confidence bound is we don't care about anything subatomic.
         | 
         | At the upper bound: In molecular dynamics, which is used
         | extensively in modern day neuroscience to understand the
         | function of ion channels and GPCRs, a single H100 can model
         | 70ns/day of compute for 1M atoms. There are 8.64e+13
         | nanoseconds per day. There are ~10^26 atoms in a human brain.
         | Therefore, an upper limit back of envelope is you need fewer
         | than 10e+26 atoms / 10e+9 atoms * 8.64e+13 ns / 70 ns =
         | 1.23e+29 H100 GPUs.
         | 
         | Calculating the lower bound is more difficult, but let's start
         | by saying you can get away with a fp16 for each synapse.
         | Storing the weights of that model for 100 trillion synapses is
         | 200 Terabytes, and if you figure weight size * 4 or so to do
         | anything useful then this is in spitting distance. Note that
         | this example lower bound is massively less complex than the
         | Neuron model I suggested, as the entire field of
         | neuromodulators, homeostatic mechanisms, glia, and more are
         | thrown out, which are all important for modeling how the brain
         | works under certain computational regimes.
        
           | Jedd wrote:
           | That is a spectacular response!
           | 
           | My bio knowledge is very basic, so forgive naiviety in these
           | two questions.
           | 
           | First, I'm not asking you to go through the math on the spot,
           | but I'm guessing that lower-bound capability is well
           | understood in 'the field', but is it documented against
           | various species? Perhaps mapping against current / projected
           | GPU/compute systems capabilities? (I know there's a project
           | to model a worm's brain, IIRC down to molecular level. But
           | I'm picturing a 'we are 3 years away from being able to
           | emulate a basset hound, 4 years for a border collie' - that
           | kind of roadmap.)
           | 
           | Second, you said upper bound is to ignore sub-atomic. I
           | thought we had proton and electron gradients, at least in
           | metabolism. I believe proton there is a synonym for Hydrogen
           | (atom), but electron would imply some potential need to
           | emulate at sub-atomic? Have I misunderstood the bounding /
           | chemistry involved?
        
           | ly3xqhl8g9 wrote:
           | We will never simulate the entire brain atom-by-atom, we
           | won't need to, the same way we never simulate atom-by-atom
           | and we don't even place structural atoms by hand when we
           | build a bridge, a rocket, or a tree house, we can be way more
           | intelligent than that [1]. In the limit, the entire thing
           | could be even more _simple_ than we currently can imagine
           | [2]. But yes, before we start leveraging equations, we must
           | find the principle of gravitation for collective intelligence
           | first [3].
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hodgkin%E2%80%93Huxley_model
           | 
           | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaction%E2%80%93diffusion_
           | sys...
           | 
           | [3] Michael Levin | Cell Intelligence in Physiological and
           | Morphological Spaces,
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLiHLDrOTW8
        
           | ftxbro wrote:
           | For the lower bound there is a dark horse factor that has
           | spooked Geoffrey Hinton. He thinks that biological brains
           | aren't able to do backpropagation effectively through
           | multiple layers, and so differentiable programming frameworks
           | are much more powerful than what the brain has, at an
           | algorithmic level. In other words, he thinks that computers
           | are able to learn more effectively than any neuron-based
           | biological brain. Of course right now there are caveats. The
           | brain appears to have more 'statistical efficiency' meaning
           | it appears to learn more from less data, and the brain is
           | obviously more energy-efficient. There is also the
           | possibility that Geoffrey Hinton is just wrong.
        
             | moffkalast wrote:
             | Biological brains also don't really operate layer by layer
             | and can have connections between random neurons, so it's
             | probably a lot more space efficient. Impossible to say if
             | any of that actually matters though.
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | I think a long ways away, if I understand this article about
         | the difficulties involved in accurately modeling even a single
         | biological neuron:
         | 
         | https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-computationally-complex-i...
         | 
         | > "If each biological neuron is like a five-layer artificial
         | neural network, then perhaps an image classification network
         | with 50 layers is equivalent to 10 real neurons in a biological
         | network."
         | 
         | The complexity explodes quickly because each biological
         | neuron's behavior is modulated by a large number of biochemical
         | neurotransmitters, on top of all the dendritic connections (up
         | to 15,000 each, apparently).
        
         | leriksen wrote:
         | The brain is analog and chemical, AI will be digital and
         | silicon. We have no idea how the map from one to the other.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > The brain is analog and chemical, AI will be digital and
           | silicon.
           | 
           | Says who?
           | 
           | Sure, _if_ you assume that "AGI is just scaling up GPT", it
           | will be digital and silicon. But that's a _big_ assumption.
           | 
           | For all we know, AGI will only ever, if it exists, be analog
           | and chemical.
           | 
           | > We have no idea how the map from one to the other.
           | 
           | Plus, even if we had an easy one-to-one mapping function
           | between them, we don't understand the source well enough to
           | do the mapping.
        
             | mejutoco wrote:
             | It does not need to be, but today the computers we use are
             | overwhelmingly based on silicon. Also OP mentioned AI, not
             | AGI.
        
           | ly3xqhl8g9 wrote:
           | An analog-to-digital and digital-to-analog converter is less
           | than a cup of coffee in some places [1].
           | 
           | [1] https://protosupplies.com/product/pcf8591-a-d-and-d-a-
           | conver...
        
             | gwoolhurme wrote:
             | Oh god so my background is CE/ECE stuff and you managed to
             | trigger me. I don't want to be rude... just bluntly saying
             | you triggered me. Doing something really small for A/D D/A
             | with 8bit and not worrying much about resolution and data
             | loss is one thing. For something massive scale the problem
             | is a lot less trivial and a lot more mathematical.
        
               | ly3xqhl8g9 wrote:
               | Haha, sorry, was more of a tongue-in-cheek reply to "We
               | have no idea how [to] map from [analog] to [digital]".
        
           | alchemist1e9 wrote:
           | Is the Quantum computer hypothesis dead?
        
             | Filligree wrote:
             | I don't see how quantum computers are relevant? We can't
             | build them, and there certainly isn't any interesting
             | quantum computation in the brain.
        
               | svnt wrote:
               | What do you mean we can't build them?
               | 
               | To your second point, we have little to no ability to
               | understand yet what quantum effects may or may not be
               | active in brain/consciousness function. We certainly
               | can't exclude the possibility.
        
               | Filligree wrote:
               | I mean lots of people have tried to build quantum
               | computers, and so far no-one has succeeded in anything
               | that's describable as a "computer", instead of "half a
               | dozen logic gates". Perhaps in the future.
               | 
               | We _can_ fairly well exclude the possibility of
               | interesting quantum effects in human consciousness,
               | because the human brain is a hot, dense environment that
               | might as well have been literally designed to eliminate
               | the possibility. It 's the exact opposite of how you want
               | a quantum computer to be built.
               | 
               | Which doesn't mean there aren't plenty of quantum effects
               | involved in the molecular physics, but that isn't what is
               | normally meant by 'quantum computer'. Transistors would
               | also meet that definition.
        
       | coffeebeqn wrote:
       | That's very interesting - why such an increase in memory
       | capacity? I hope they can translate this to cheaper cards too
        
         | Grum9 wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | ttul wrote:
         | It is surely driven by the gargantuan increase in demand for
         | training and running massive models.
        
         | jrk wrote:
         | It's not an increase in capacity of per-GPU "GPU memory" (the
         | HBM directly connected to the H100 here is up to 96GB, where
         | the previous generation was 80GB), but rather reflects the
         | product of two things:
         | 
         | 1. Each node here is a more tightly-coupled CPU+GPU two-chip
         | pairing, and the _CPU_ side has a significantly larger pool of
         | 480GB of LPDDR ( "regular" RAM). So each GPU is part of a node
         | that includes up to 480+96GB of total memory.
         | 
         | 2. There are way more nodes: 256, up from 8.
        
           | senttoschool wrote:
           | > _480+96GB of total memory_
           | 
           | Is this memory unified like Apple Silicon? Meaning, can a
           | model be deployed onto 574GB of total memory? Can the GPU
           | read memory directly from the 480GB pool? Same question for
           | CPU being able to directly access the 96GB.
        
             | smoldesu wrote:
             | It should be mapped as one address space, so yes to the
             | loading across multiple GPU question. It's not fully
             | unified though, at this scale of computer it's simply
             | impossible to put 100s of GB on an SOC like that. Instead,
             | the GPU and CPU have DMA over PCI and NvLink, which is
             | plenty fast for AI and scientific compute purposes.
             | "Unified memory" doesn't make much sense for supercomputers
             | this large.
        
           | tacticus wrote:
           | `Nvidia discovers DMA`
        
             | jabl wrote:
             | Nvlink provides cache coherent load-store access, so the
             | point is actually that it's not DMA.
        
             | llm_nerd wrote:
             | This device has a fully switched fabric allowing comms
             | between any of the 256 "superchip" clusters at 900GB/s.
             | That is dramatically faster than a direct host to GPU
             | 32-lane PCI-E connection (which is crazy), and obviously
             | dwarfs any existing machine to machine connectivity. The
             | actual _usability_ of shared memory across the array is
             | improved significantly.
             | 
             | I mean...nvidia has obviously been using DMA for decades.
             | This isn't just DMA.
        
               | tacticus wrote:
               | No i mean the fact that Nvidia is now claiming that the
               | memory the CPU has access to can be counted as memory for
               | the GPU. the fabric is neat. the "We have 500 GB of ram
               | per gpu" claim is questionable.
        
               | zeusk wrote:
               | Parent discovers the difference between DMA and RDMA
        
             | smoldesu wrote:
             | They do make PCI hardware, don't they?
        
       | prmoustache wrote:
       | Why do we still call those processors GPU when they are not meant
       | to process graphics?
        
         | ru552 wrote:
         | A GPU specializes in Vector math, which is what is used in
         | gaming graphics. Hence the name Graphics Processing Unit and
         | it's original use case. It just so happens that LLMs are
         | powered by vector math much like graphics applications are.
        
           | prmoustache wrote:
           | So it should be called VMPU then, not GPU.
        
         | tzhenghao wrote:
         | Good point. "AI accelerators" is a thing now that competes
         | directly with "GPUs used for AI as its sole purpose".
        
         | pixelpoet wrote:
         | CPUs are also arguably not the centre of processing in such
         | systems.
        
         | ioedward wrote:
         | The technical term is GPGPU, general-purpose computing on GPUs,
         | but I like to call them GPUs for short.
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | So, a GPPU.
        
       | kqr2 wrote:
       | How does this compare to Cerebras? https://www.cerebras.net/
        
         | modeless wrote:
         | I think this has a lot more memory than Cerebras. Their site
         | doesn't say how much memory they can attach to each Cerebras
         | chip and I've gotta imagine that's because it doesn't look good
         | vs their competitors.
        
       | lhl wrote:
       | I watched Huang's Computex presentation and was pretty impressed
       | by the hardware they're launching, but it's worth noting some
       | caveats. While it was announced to be in "full production,"
       | according to the blog post, DGX GH200 won't be available until
       | the end of the year, which puts it about on the same timeline as
       | AMD's delivery of MI300.
       | 
       | Also, while the 1 exaFLOPS topline number is impressive, this has
       | some asterisks. Each GH H100 GPU only does 34 TFLOPS of FP64
       | according to the data sheet. [1] At 256 nodes, this is a mere 8.7
       | petaFLOPS, or 0.0087 exaFLOPS. You only get to the 1 exaFLOPS
       | number (from looking at the data sheet) if you are doing sparse
       | FP8 Tensor Core FLOPS (3968 TFLOPS/GH, non-sparse is halved).
       | It's worth keeping this in mind when comparing to something like
       | Frontier (1.1 exaFLOPS) [2] or the upcoming El Capitan (expected
       | 2 exaFLOPS) [3] - Top500 uses LINPACK, which benchmarks FP64
       | FLOPS. Of course, for AI training, FP8 or BF16 is probably the
       | most relevant numbers for perf/W and perf/$... Frontier and El
       | Capitan are each estimated to cost ~$600M, and while exact
       | numbers weren't given, I'd expect a full 256-node DGX H200 to
       | come in between $50-100M.
       | 
       | AMD will be having a "Data Center and AI" event on June 13th, so
       | we'll get to see soon how competitive they are (the announced
       | MI300 specs is 24 x Zen 4 cores with a CDNA3 architecture that is
       | 8X faster than MI250X (383 FP16/BF16 TFLOPS), so about 3000
       | TFLOPS, with 128GB of unified HBM3 on a 8196 bit bus (6.5TB/s
       | theoretical), which is in the same ballpark as Grace Hopper - I
       | think it'll mostly come down to software, but with drop-in
       | PyTorch support, OpenAI's Triton, etc, I'm somewhat optimistic
       | that it will be worth it for big players do to some software lift
       | (that others can benefit from), if the cost competitiveness of
       | the hardware is there. For details already made public, see:
       | https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-amd-instinct-mi300-det...
       | 
       | [1] https://resources.nvidia.com/en-us-dgx-gh200/nvidia-grace-
       | ho...
       | 
       | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontier_(supercomputer)
       | 
       | [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Capitan_(supercomputer)
        
       | thwoiu4o2i34234 wrote:
       | The trouble with all this is that people are forced to buy these
       | insanely expensive systems merely for the benefit of fitting all
       | that stuff in the vram even if they don't end up using the
       | compute cores on these machines (which, let's be honest, aren't
       | really all that better than the gaming gpus).
       | 
       | The needs are more in line with consumer server hardware with
       | user-choice on cpu/ram etc. Sounds to me like there's a market
       | for disruption. Pity that the deep-learning community is under
       | the choke-hold of nvidia's software.
        
         | tzhenghao wrote:
         | Eh, time will tell. Nvidia is killing it because they have
         | "semi decent" software toolchains like CUDA when just about
         | hardware player botched software. That said, a lot of
         | interesting development on the XLA and PyTorch 2.0 sides that
         | lower straight down to LLVM, bypassing Nvidia's CUDA moat
         | today.
        
           | tucnak wrote:
           | The same is also true for
           | https://github.com/ROCmSoftwarePlatform/rocBLAS and
           | https://github.com/ROCmSoftwarePlatform/hipBLASLt although
           | the build stack, distribution-- leaves a lot to be desired,
           | and otherwise quite unstable.
        
       | ftxbro wrote:
       | I can't find how much it will cost or how much power it will use.
       | I mean it will be a lot and maybe only Google and Microsoft and
       | Facebook can afford it but I still want to know.
        
         | bigmattystyles wrote:
         | I wonder if you can even run this on a regular 20A circuit -
         | I'm thinking no - 20 * 120 = 2400 Watts - I assume that will
         | not be enough...
        
           | jeffnappi wrote:
           | Here's an example of an 8x H100 machine - look at the tech
           | specs: https://lambdalabs.com/deep-
           | learning/servers/hyperplane
           | 
           | 6x 3000W PSUs in a 3x3 redundant config. So 9000 watts total.
           | So at least 240v x 50A. x2 for redundancy.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | zamadatix wrote:
           | For a single Grace+Hopper node? I'd bet it fits in that
           | budget, the Grace Hopper datasheet says the combo has a CPU +
           | GPU + memory TDP of 450W - 1000W programmable, and that
           | leaves more than half of the room for the rest of the node's
           | power budget. For the DGX GH200? It's 18,432 CPU cores with
           | 256 GPUs across 16 full racks of servers :p.
        
           | mattlondon wrote:
           | My hob in my kitchen is 7.3kw? Normal 32a * 240 circuit
           | allows up to 7.68kw, and the 6mm^2 cable is rated to
           | something like 45amps
           | 
           | This seems fairly common e.g.
           | https://www.currys.co.uk/products/aeg-ikb64401fb-59-cm-
           | elect...
           | 
           | I am sure data centers have larger circuit breakers and
           | chunkier cables than my kitchen appliances!
        
             | throwaway2037 wrote:
             | Woah, I looked at the specs:                   Front left:
             | 2.3 kW / 3.7 kW
             | 
             | Cripes. You can boil water extremely fast on that IH setup!
             | I'm living with 1.5 kW, and it is painful...
        
               | Bedon292 wrote:
               | When we first got our induction cooktop I was so excited
               | about how ridiculously fast we could boil water. Which is
               | definitely an odd thing to get excited about. It
               | definitely isn't that powerful though. That's a lot of
               | power.
        
         | Bedon292 wrote:
         | The DGX A100 was $200k at launch. I found a DGX H100 in the mid
         | $300k area. And those are 8 GPU systems. So you need 32 of
         | those, and each one will definitely cost more plus networking.
         | Super low estimate would be $500k each for $16M total. But
         | considering its moving from 98GB to 480GB RAM per GPU. Might be
         | more like $1.5M per 8, round it to say $50M.
         | 
         | And at 1/8th the power per GB, you have 700 Watts / 96GB / 8 *
         | 480GB come to around 450 Watts per. And 115kw for the 256.
        
           | nvy wrote:
           | With that much memory I could probably run Crysis 4 and an
           | Electron app side by side!
        
           | BonoboIO wrote:
           | I have no expertise in GPU System used for AI Learning, but
           | would It be possible to buy a bunch of consumer cards and get
           | the same performance? Or is this not possible because
           | consumer cards go to 40 ish GB RAM and Models would not fit
           | or ,,swapping" like crazy and be slow.
        
             | 01100011 wrote:
             | Not the same. Not all problems can be efficiently divided
             | among NUMA nodes with low bandwidth interconnects.
        
             | Bedon292 wrote:
             | The NVLink interconnect on all the GPUs is a huge part of
             | it, and cannot come even remotely close to that bandwidth
             | with consumer goods. Then the density of RAM to compute and
             | power is huge. A single 4090 is 450 watts, for 24GB where
             | this is 20x the memory for the same watts. 2.3Mw or so. If
             | you say $0.14 / kwh, thats something like $325 / hour in
             | power costs to run. Not counting additional cooling you are
             | definitely going to need. And I am sure there is
             | inefficiency this doesn't cover but 240v 10,000+ Amps for
             | that?
        
             | Tepix wrote:
             | Consumer cards only have PCIe 4.0, at most 24GB VRAM and
             | the only recent model with NVLink, the RTX 3090, can only
             | be connected to exactly one other card. It doesn't scale
             | beyond that. So you are limited to PCIe 4.0 x16 speeds.
        
             | p1esk wrote:
             | _would It be possible_
             | 
             | No
        
           | ftxbro wrote:
           | What does this mean for the AI race? For example what if a
           | newish company (newer than Google/Facebook/Microsoft/etc.)
           | like Anthropic, Scale, Perplexity, or Stability is able to
           | scrape together $5B USD funding and spend their hardware
           | budget on these things. Say that can buy $1B of them and
           | spend the rest on hackers and operating expenses (idk if
           | that's realistic). So maybe they could purchase and operate
           | like 20 of them. Say that they spend six months doing
           | experimental things and then the next six months training
           | their Tsar Model. If they follow the Chinchilla scaling laws
           | and normal architectures, how good will these models be?
        
             | bushbaba wrote:
             | For AI race means it opens the door to a competitor. Could
             | be AMD, Google, or Amazon. All which have offerings in this
             | space.
             | 
             | However while the hardware isn't cheap, it's still likely
             | not a blocker. Costs do inhibitor more experimental
             | research.
        
             | mirekrusin wrote:
             | Startup which will rent this compute when needed will
             | likely have more advantage on AI front.
             | 
             | Selling shovels is good business, but doesn't compete
             | directly in AI area.
        
         | einarfd wrote:
         | It's in interest of Nvidia, to try to make sure they do not end
         | up in a situation where they have a small group of very big
         | customer that buy a large slice of their production. For Nvidia
         | a market of the same size, with many small to medium customer
         | is a lot better as those customers will have a lot less power
         | to force Nvidia to do something that isn't in it's interest or
         | it does not want. I expect to see moves from Nvidia to help
         | smaller players, open source or semi open models to not be
         | crushed by the big players. Not because they are nice, but
         | because it is in their best interest.
        
       | mandeepj wrote:
       | I know my comment is not directly related to the post, but it's
       | not completely unrelated. Nvidia's CEO gave a commencement speech
       | recently. In that, he said:
       | 
       |  _I contacted the CEO of Sega and suggested that they should find
       | another partner. But I also needed Sega to pay us in full or
       | Nivida would be out of business._
       | 
       | Just like failures, there are lessons for learning behind every
       | success. Does anyone here have any insight - how did Nvidia came
       | out of the above embarrassing and incompetency phase, and became
       | a path-breaking, and trend-setting power house?
        
         | gen220 wrote:
         | I don't have a direct answer, but the "Acquired" podcast did a
         | two-part series on Nvidia in 2022Q1, it's a good/deep answer to
         | why they are the way they are.
         | 
         | part 1: https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/nvidia-the-gpu-
         | company-1993...
         | 
         | part 2: https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/nvidia-the-machine-
         | learning...
         | 
         | In short, Jensen has an almost Elon-like appetite for "bet the
         | company" tier risk. He's never been comfortable with a plateau,
         | and is always looking for the next mountain to jump to, before
         | the plate tectonics of the industry come around to form it.
         | 
         | There aren't a lot of CEOs and companies that oversee a company
         | or industry-transforming shift more than once, he's definitely
         | in that camp.
         | 
         | But that's a gross oversimplification, the story is more
         | interesting. Check it out!
        
           | mandeepj wrote:
           | Thank you for your response and those links.
           | 
           | It seems Jensen is either reserved or media shy. He does not
           | do as many public appearance as his contemporaries like
           | Musk/Jobs/Gates/Bezos.
           | 
           | Also, there has not been any book on him. But, there are
           | couple on the way -
           | https://www.amazon.com/s?k=Jensen+Huang&ref=nb_sb_noss . I
           | hope he'll choose to publish a 2k/3k pages biography. Love
           | reading life stories of successful leaders.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | unwind wrote:
       | This is awe-inspiring and almost scary, it's pretty much beyond
       | my understanding how much data these systems are meant to
       | process.
       | 
       | What is also beyond me is how someone at Nvidia thinks that the
       | label sequence "1.00E+2; 1.00E+3; 1.00E+4; 1.00E+5; 1.00E+6" for
       | the vertical axis in "Figure 1" is more readable than "100;
       | 1,000; 10,000; 100,000; 1,000,000" would have been. The latter is
       | 5 chars less (total), even. Or, if exponential notation is
       | important for the Big Serious Computing People, then perhaps they
       | could have dropped the ".00" part from each value? Or, if I'm
       | allowed to dream, gone with actual exponential notation?
        
         | vasco wrote:
         | The exponent number is the number of zeros, its way more
         | readable and faster to interpret than counting zeros.
        
           | PartiallyTyped wrote:
           | It's easier to think in (possibly relative) orders of
           | magnitude than with absolute numbers, instinctively it's what
           | we do when we read large numbers.
        
         | rowanG077 wrote:
         | I think the scientific notation is much more readable. Putting
         | in the number of zeroes quickly leads me to count it them.
        
         | tuetuopay wrote:
         | It's the scientific notation, and makes the graph to be a log
         | scale. It allows you to see they gained more than two orders of
         | magnitude in a single generation.
        
         | timthelion wrote:
         | There is a semantic difference: 1,000,000 == 1,000,000 where-as
         | 1.00E+6 >= 1,000,000 < 1,010,000. The decimal places after the
         | 1 in 1.00E+6 specify the precision of the measurement.
        
           | cubefox wrote:
           | I don't think they specify any precision. It's just a way to
           | write very large/small numbers approximately. (Though these
           | numbers here aren't really considered large.)
        
             | timthelion wrote:
             | They do. See wikipedia [significant figures] https://en.wik
             | ipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_notation#Significan...
             | 
             | In this case, it is pointless though, since the precision
             | is actually known.
        
         | csomar wrote:
         | I'm not sure what's the problem with the exponential notation?
         | It shows scale in order of magnitudes.
        
           | csdvrx wrote:
           | > I'm not sure what's the problem with the exponential
           | notation?
           | 
           | Same. It's just more efficient and readable that counting the
           | 0 while considering the culture bound digit group separator
           | norms like thousands/millions 3,3 vs laks/crore 2,2,3 cf http
           | s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_numbering_system?useski...
           | 
           | Personally, I think it'd have been better to say the the .00
           | adding nothing: 1E2 1E3 etc would be far better.
        
       | xipix wrote:
       | A large system, so much higher chance of something breaking.
       | 
       | What happens if it loses a node or a link? Or some memory becomes
       | unreliable? This thing needs some sophisticated fault tolerance.
        
         | ioedward wrote:
         | Nvidia's enterprise GPUs are surprisingly unreliable. Working
         | on a 128 GPU A100 cluster on AWS, 1 would fail every few days.
         | I didn't have any insight on whether it was a hardware or
         | software failure.
        
           | csdvrx wrote:
           | > Working on a 128 GPU A100 cluster on AWS, 1 would fail
           | every few days
           | 
           | Define "fail".
           | 
           | > I didn't have any insight on whether it was a hardware or
           | software failure.
           | 
           | Have scripts check nvidia-smi for ECC errors and dmesg for
           | devices dropping of the PCI bus.
           | 
           | For the former, replace the card. For the later, just perform
           | a device reset (a power toggle of the device and a rescan of
           | the bus is often enough to be back online within 5 seconds)
        
             | robotresearcher wrote:
             | What does an AWS user do with this advice?
        
               | csdvrx wrote:
               | They either figure out how to write scripts or ask AWS
               | support how to get that done.
        
       | winstonprivacy wrote:
       | I can finally play Crysis on highest settings.
        
       | ftxbro wrote:
       | imagine a beowulf cluster of them
        
       | mupuff1234 wrote:
       | Did supercomputers ever produce something meaningful or did
       | advancement usually come out of more "scrappier" setups?
       | 
       | I remember hearing a lot about rankings of supercomputers, but
       | less so about what they actually achieved.
        
         | anaganisk wrote:
         | Google might've been built on a laptop, but it can't scale on a
         | laptop. Same applies to coding an algorithm on a scrappy setup,
         | and then scaling it to sequence DNA or simulate a phenomenon.
        
           | kortilla wrote:
           | Not sure what this means, because google effectively scaled
           | on laptops (generic x86).
        
             | why_only_15 wrote:
             | In my head the way I differentiate "supercomputers"
             | (national labs) and "warehouse-scale computers"
             | (google/amazon/azure) is:
             | 
             | 1. workload for national labs this is mostly sparse fp64 in
             | my understanding, for warehouse-scale computing is lots of
             | integer work, highly branchy, lots of pointer chasing,
             | stuff like that.
             | 
             | 2. latency/reliability vs throughput warehouse-scale
             | computing jobs often run at awful utilization, in the 5-20%
             | range depending on how you measure, in order to respond to
             | shocks of various kinds and provide nice abstractions for
             | developers. fundamentally these systems are used live by
             | humans and human time is very valuable so making sure it
             | stays up always and returns quickly is paramount. In my
             | understanding supercomputing workloads are much more
             | throughput-oriented, where you need to do an enormous
             | amount of computation to get some answer but it doesn't
             | much matter whether the answer comes in one week or two
             | weeks.
             | 
             | 3. interconnect warehouse-scale computing workloads are
             | mostly fairly separable and the place where different
             | requests become intertangled is in the database. In the
             | supercomputing world, in my understanding, there are often
             | significant interconnect needs all the time, so extremely
             | high performance networking is emphasized.
        
         | neurostimulant wrote:
         | Weather simulations and forecasting are very useful to society
         | and practically almost all available public weather forecasting
         | datasets were computed in some supercomputer cluster.
        
         | zacmps wrote:
         | > supercomputers ever produce something meaningful
         | 
         | Absolutely, they contribute to research all of the time.
         | 
         | Some of them have pages where they list research outputs that
         | they enabled (though this is of course limited to those authors
         | tell them about!).
        
         | KingLancelot wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | lannisterstark wrote:
         | >Did supercomputers ever produce something meaningful
         | 
         | supercomputers do all the hard work in research universities
         | all the time. Hell, astrophysics and research involving
         | telescopes and observatories use em all the time.
        
         | MooMooMilkParty wrote:
         | Yes, absolutely. Most climate models run on supercomputers,
         | same with molecular dynamics, large scale fluid dynamics,
         | energy systems simulations and of course a whole lot of weapons
         | research.
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | Weather forecasts are vastly more accurate because of
         | supercomputers. And they're improving all the time.
        
         | pjmlp wrote:
         | Most of research stuff done at CERN for example.
         | 
         | Besides the outcomes that were adopted by the industry, before
         | cloud computing there was grid computing, exactly to manage
         | such resources at scale.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_LHC_Computing_Grid
        
         | gwoolhurme wrote:
         | Yeah they do all the time. I remember in my parallel computing
         | course where we got to use our 800 core test PC back in grad
         | school where people were running simulations of different
         | weather patterns and climate change. Earthquake simulations and
         | what not. A lot of that can be done taking advantage of all of
         | those cores. Academia specifically heavily uses these to get
         | closer to the "physics" with clear discrete limitations
        
           | renonce wrote:
           | What is the difference between a supercomputer and a million
           | ordinary servers connected together?
        
             | sliken wrote:
             | Typically:                 1. Low latency network, 1-2us.
             | Most servers can't ping their local switch that quickly,
             | let alone the most distant switch for 1M nodes       2.
             | High bandwidth network, at least 200gbit       3. A
             | parallel filesystem       4. Very few node types.       5.
             | Network topology designed for low latency/high bandwidth,
             | things like hypercube, dragonfly, or fat tree.       6.
             | Software stack that is aware of the topology and makes use
             | of it for efficiency and collective operations,        7.
             | Tuned system images to minimize noise, maximize efficiency,
             | and reduce context switches and interupts.  Reserving cores
             | for handing interrupts is common at larger core counts.
        
             | adzm wrote:
             | Simplicity of the programming model, basically, though in
             | the end it all just comes down to bandwidth and latency.
        
             | mywittyname wrote:
             | Communication speed / latency is a big one. Sometimes it
             | matters how quickly extremely large volumes of data can be
             | sent between cores.
        
         | tombert wrote:
         | I think part of this comes down to your definition of
         | "supercomputer", but I mean, pretty much the entire internet is
         | powered by servers. I've never worked there, but I'm assuming
         | that AWS data centers have very powerful computers designed to
         | handle thousands of VMs/containers each, and I suspect with all
         | the AI hype, a large percentage of them have very beefy GPUs in
         | there as well.
         | 
         | If you're talking about the more stereotypical "high
         | performance supercomputers", I think that they are still used
         | very liberally within the defense industry. I think Lockheed
         | Martin, for example, uses them for CFD analysis.
        
         | ftxbro wrote:
         | We've never had architectures that scale so effectively,
         | unlocking new cognitive capabilities by just increasing
         | parameters/exaflops/datasets without writing a lot more code or
         | changing the architecture. Ilya Sutskever mentioned this in
         | some interview, that transformers are the first with that
         | property but probably won't be the last or best.
        
         | fhe wrote:
         | Ever better weather forecast for one. I can remember that,
         | about two decades ago, weather forecast was still rather
         | wobbly, and could only see a couple days into the future. Now
         | 10-day forecast is routine, and surprisingly good. Much of that
         | improvement came about as a result of more powerful
         | supercomputers.
        
         | why_only_15 wrote:
         | Supercomputers exist in meaningful part to compensate for our
         | lack of ability to do nuclear tests. This is why the national
         | labs run them.
        
       | tombert wrote:
       | Yet another thing to put on my wishlist for whenever I become an
       | eccentric billionaire.
       | 
       | I know that I will never be able to afford such a thing (or
       | possibly even afford to power it for more than a few minutes),
       | but a man can dream.
        
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