[HN Gopher] A vaccine for pancreatic cancer treatment?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       A vaccine for pancreatic cancer treatment?
        
       Author : dcminter
       Score  : 156 points
       Date   : 2023-05-12 16:44 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.science.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.science.org)
        
       | jrjarrett wrote:
       | I love that this is advancing treatment; I was somewhat
       | disappointed that apparently, you must HAVE cancer first in order
       | to create the vaccine.
       | 
       | If there was a vaccine that prevented this before it happened, I
       | would be in line.
        
       | rodoxcasta wrote:
       | They focus the immune system on the tumor by teaching it to
       | identify some "neoantigens" in the tumor. Turns out that tumors
       | express various strange proteins in their cell wall, I suppose
       | because of the inherent genetic instability.
       | 
       | Anyone know why this can't be a silver bullet for most tumors?
       | Like, a way to target an intrinsic characteristic of cancers that
       | in theory could be very effective on most of them.. sounds too
       | good to be true. So, what's the catch?
        
         | chrisamiller wrote:
         | It's true that the whole problem of cancer therapy is "how do I
         | target these cells over here, while avoiding the rest of your
         | healthy cells, when they look mostly the same" And you're right
         | that this is a really exciting and promising approach!
         | 
         | A partial list of the "catches" at present are
         | 
         | 1) tumors are really good at down-regulating the immune system.
         | If they weren't, they would have been cleared already
         | 
         | 2) we're still fairly bad at knowing which of the many
         | mutations in a tumor are going to be good neoantigens - that
         | is, which ones the immune system will be good at recognizing
         | and ramping up against
         | 
         | 3) It's expensive to design personalized therapies for every
         | patient, but may be necessary (see some of my other comments
         | below)
         | 
         | 4) Tumors aren't single cells, they're collections of them that
         | can have different characteristics. Just like with other
         | therapies, sometimes immunotherapies kill 99% of the tumor, but
         | leave that 1% to come roaring back. (same idea as antibiotic
         | resistance)
         | 
         | So yeah, lots of hurdles to overcome, but overall, I'm
         | genuinely excited about the rapid progress we're making in the
         | area of immunotherapies. It's impossible to overstate the
         | effect that sustained research funding has had on the rate of
         | advances in this field.
        
       | remote_phone wrote:
       | Pancreatic cancer terrifies me and keeps me up at night. It has
       | virtually no symptoms until it's too late. My friends dad was
       | diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and died 6 weeks later.
       | 
       | Every time a celebrity dies of cancer I always hope that it's not
       | pancreatic but the numbers keep increasing. Patrick Swayze, Steve
       | Jobs, Alex Trebek, Aretha Franklin, now Jerry Springer.
       | 
       | As someone with type 2 diabetes it's something I worry about very
       | often.
        
         | tombert wrote:
         | Yeah, I'm right up there with you. My uncle died of pancreatic
         | cancer about 15 years ago, and like you said, by the time he
         | knew about it, it was way too late.
         | 
         | I wish there were easier ways to check for it early.
        
         | cdelsolar wrote:
         | it's still very rare especially for young people. as someone
         | with a degree of health anxiety, I sympathize, though.
        
         | gww wrote:
         | There are lots of other tumours that are just as deadly as
         | pancreatic adenocarcinoma.
         | 
         | Steve Jobs died of a pancreatic neuroendocrine Tumour. It
         | should not be grouped with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The
         | former is approximately 7-8% of all pancreatic tumors and has a
         | much better prognosis of almost 90% at 5 years if it's caught
         | early. In Jobs case it was. Pancreatic adenocarcinoma has a
         | dismal prognosis of <10% at 5 years.
         | 
         | Edit. My Pancreatic cancer knowledge is a bit outdated but I
         | recall type 2 diabetes being a risk factor for pancreatic
         | cancer. I believe in some cases pancreatic cancer can cause
         | diabetes because of the damage it does to the pancreas.
        
           | 01100011 wrote:
           | Yep. Ex-wife has neuroendocrine carcinoid tumors in her liver
           | and pancreas, with the main tumor removed from her lung aroun
           | 18-19 years of age.
           | 
           | Unless your tumors are functional(i.e. they are
           | neuroendocrine tissue and can secrete hormones) or rapidly
           | growing, it's not a very severe disease and there are
           | treatments available. After 6 years of monitoring by a
           | leading oncologist, she was told she would live a long life
           | and die of something else.
           | 
           | That doesn't stop me from needing to pay her huge amounts of
           | money for alimony, but it is what it is. Steve Jobs died
           | because he was an idiot who tried quack therapies.
        
       | jtlienwis wrote:
       | You need to think of the cost of this kind of treatment at this
       | stage as R&D. If it works thousands of people will benefit, have
       | longer lives and contribute back more than the lifesaving
       | treatment will cost.
        
         | yieldcrv wrote:
         | we can justify having an option for people's self preservation
         | instincts without having to make up that fairy tale, more
         | elderly humans will probably be a net negative
        
           | chaxor wrote:
           | It seems like you're the negative one here. There is nothing
           | inherently negative about living longer - just potential to
           | have learned far more than others from experience. Any
           | biological issues with existing for longer can have
           | solutions, for which may be tackled better with more good
           | minds put forth to the task.
        
             | yieldcrv wrote:
             | nah, people just choose not to read what I wrote
             | 
             | but it is illuminating to see a passionate audience's
             | reading comprehension ability
             | 
             | it says treatments and extending life is desirable and
             | doesn't need a reason and the reason presented would be a
             | waste of energy to debate and quantify while doing so isnt
             | even necessary, read it again until it makes sense that way
        
               | t-writescode wrote:
               | I downvoted you for this part, fwiw:
               | 
               | > more elderly humans will probably be a net negative
        
               | yieldcrv wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
               | uvudshcg wrote:
               | You're asserting that "more elderly people is a net
               | negative" without giving a supporting argument.
               | 
               | So, I think all the prayer above you is saying they
               | disagree. And without you making the effort to support
               | your kind of inflammatory statement... it seems perfectly
               | reasonable to me that they would not support there point
               | other than to say they disagree.
        
               | yieldcrv wrote:
               | and my only reason for that assertion is because the
               | opposite assertion was not quantified either. I wrote
               | "probably" as in "just as probably"
               | 
               | it was to point out the equal likelihood, and the
               | unnecessary aspect of bothering
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | spandrew wrote:
               | That, or what you said was being a jerk and you got
               | called out on it.
        
               | yieldcrv wrote:
               | and of the accuracy of the statement?
        
           | UberFly wrote:
           | Please explain your "fairy tale" descriptor, I don't
           | understand what your are trying to say here.
        
             | killjoywashere wrote:
             | I think he's implying that everyone dies, everyone will
             | ultimately live through some life arc, and letting people
             | survive a fatal illness invariably causes the average age
             | of the population to rise and at some point the costs
             | outweigh the benefits. So what's the point of a longer arc
             | of life?
             | 
             | My personal counterpoint: pancreatic cancers tend to strike
             | anywhere in adulthood, so survival could yet lead to many
             | years of productive life. Also, having grandparents is
             | good, even if they've retired. Maybe especially if they've
             | retired.
        
               | Taywee wrote:
               | An additional personal counterpoint: I know three very
               | productive knowledge workers over the age of 70 who all
               | say they'll stop working when they're dead.
               | 
               | My wife and I can only both work because our elderly
               | parents take on childcare responsibility for us (because
               | paid childcare is very often extremely expensive and very
               | often very overcrowded), and our parents teach and enrich
               | the lives of our children immeasurably.
               | 
               | Take care of the elderly. Build systems and habits of
               | care and compassion that you want to be able to rely upon
               | when you get old.
        
               | joshuahedlund wrote:
               | I think you are all in agreement; I interpreted the above
               | comment as implying the exact opposite - don't make
               | economic arguments that people saved will contribute
               | more, because elderly people may not actually do that,
               | but that doesn't mean it's not worth it on other grounds,
               | precisely as you are doing here.
        
               | peteradio wrote:
               | So yieldrcv is not arguing against the treatment, just
               | saying a better argument should be made for it?
        
               | tux3 wrote:
               | I read yieldrcv as saying that people not dying is good
               | on its own merit, so we don't need an economic argument.
               | The survival instinct is enough justification on its own.
               | 
               | We may not need to contrive some reason why saving lives
               | will actually save us money, and therefore saving lives
               | is good.
               | 
               | If you need an economic reason to save lives, you will
               | have to do incredible gymnastics to justify medical
               | treatment for old people, for instance.
               | 
               | So don't do the acrobatics. We can just say that medicine
               | is good, actually.
        
               | joshuahedlund wrote:
               | yes, jtlienwis is making an economic argument to justify
               | the treatment. yieldcrv is arguing that the economic
               | argument may be invalid (i.e. it's a "fairy tale" to
               | believe the treatment will pay for itself through
               | economic activity, but there are non-economic arguments
               | to justify treatment (i.e. "we can justify having an
               | option for people's self preservation" - the treatment is
               | an option for self-preservation and self-preservation can
               | be justified on other grounds)
        
               | Taywee wrote:
               | I don't think the top level comment was inherently about
               | money, though. "Contribute back" can mean non-monetarily,
               | or even be implying an indirect monetary gain from them
               | contributing non-monetarily to their families.
               | 
               | Economics is devilishly difficult to really efficiently
               | predict. More reliable lifespans and a larger elderly
               | population can affect the total flow of money in ways
               | nobody can properly imagine, positively or negatively.
               | 
               | From a younger perspective, the effect of eliminating
               | cancers from the equation implies a lot. What is more
               | expensive to the world, years of cancer treatments and
               | palliative care to somebody in their 70s, or somebody
               | living healthily through to 90 years old before dying
               | from heart failure? What about the family cost of caring
               | for a sick elderly relative?
        
               | yieldcrv wrote:
               | correct, I'm not arguing against treatment. fascinating
               | how that stirred people here.
        
               | scarmig wrote:
               | Another point to indicate that the elderly do contribute
               | back: if the elderly were a net negative while we evolved
               | (which involved a lot more physical labor than typical
               | work does today), there'd be selection pressures against
               | the genes that confer longevity. And yet we've evolved in
               | a way that the typical person will live long past the age
               | of reproductive viability.
               | 
               | Concretely, humans aren't that much smarter than chimps.
               | We did reach a point, however, where knowledge can be
               | transferred and processed efficiently across individuals
               | ("society"). The elderly play a net positive role in
               | facilitating and maintaining these knowledge transfer
               | networks, particularly to their kin.
        
             | GrinningFool wrote:
             | Not OP, but I think the gist was more about not needing to
             | justify life-saving treatment in terms of cost-
             | effectiveness over someone's life - people just want to
             | live as long as possible, and that's OK in spite of the
             | 'net negative' of increasing the aging population that it
             | can result in.
             | 
             | I think the accuracy of that 'net negative' assumption is
             | definitely not a given and that's what most folks are
             | reacting to.
        
           | dfsalijvlkj32 wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
       | fwungy wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | jjtheblunt wrote:
         | I'm guessing from your tone that your grandmother wasn't
         | crippled by poliovirus years before the vaccine. mine was.
         | 
         | to your probable point, it's a disservice that marketing of
         | vaccine boosters has clearly made vaccines seem tied to
         | corporate profiteering, but there DO exist useful vaccines.
        
           | fwungy wrote:
           | The CDC Red Book used to list the chances of a permanent or
           | fatal response to polio as being < 0.5%. They took that out a
           | while ago when people started citing it.
           | 
           | Oftentimes you find that a bad outcome to an illness,
           | especially when rare, is associated with an extenuating
           | circumstance. Covid, for example, isn't all that dangerous to
           | young people with healthy BMIs. OTOH it is very dangerous to
           | the elderly with multiple comorbidities, i.e. people who are
           | in danger under any condition and need careful care.
           | 
           | Medicines and vaccines can be wonderful and life saving, but
           | speaking as someone who has professionally reviewed trial
           | data, they needed to be treated with great care.
           | 
           | The potential for unintended consequences is always high with
           | powerful new medications. Techno philia and corporate greed
           | can often get in the way of good science.
        
       | JumpCrisscross wrote:
       | > _after years of work, BioNTech says that they can get it down
       | to less than $100,000 /dose. I'm sure it can be driven down
       | further, but this is highly unlikely to ever be cheap. They also
       | got an anti-PD-L1 antibody and a four-component chemotherapy
       | cocktail (those last two have already been tried in PDAC therapy
       | without the vaccine dose, to unimpressive effect). The vaccine
       | was administered across nine doses_
       | 
       | Wow, $1mm to save a life. (This math works in the rich world.)
        
         | pastor_bob wrote:
         | Perhaps at some point, a 'generic' neoantigen profile vaccine
         | can be produced that is somewhat effective. How much variance
         | can there be amongst 500,000 cancer patients?
        
           | chrisamiller wrote:
           | There is a lot of great work going on thinking about this
           | very problem. One common theory goes like this:
           | 
           | There are lots of tumor "driver mutations" that are causative
           | and occur in lots and lots of patients. These would make
           | great targets for a vaccine like this, in theory.
           | 
           | But - Tumors have to evade the immune system in order to gain
           | a foothold. (We have all had many cancerous cells that were
           | cleared away without anyone ever knowing!). If a mutation is
           | particularly good at activating the immune system, it's
           | unlikely to survive long enough to cause cancer. So one of
           | the features that a mutation has to have in order to become a
           | driver is that it's bad at being recognized by the immune
           | system! That means the most common mutations that we'd like
           | to target with cheap, mass-produced vaccines may not work
           | very well.
           | 
           | There's some evidence on both sides at this point, with lots
           | more data being collected, but it's certainly something that
           | us folks researching the problem are keenly following!
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | To be more precise, the rich world can afford to spend money on
         | developing such treatments.
         | 
         | It is entirely possible that 30 years from now, the same
         | therapy will cost 1000 USD per dose, with most of the expensive
         | stuff automated away.
        
         | screwturner68 wrote:
         | The Hep-B vaccine used to cost $100K and now it's about $4000
         | (in the US where we get screwed). Honestly a $20K vaccine that
         | would protect me from the big killer cancers would be a check
         | I'd write in a second and I'm not a rich man.
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | Huh.
           | 
           | I had Twinrix (Hep A+B combo vaccine) at least twice because
           | I'd forgotten I'd had it, and only found out later when I put
           | my medical notes into a spreadsheet.
           | 
           | Just had to ask and the NHS did it for free.
        
             | pkaye wrote:
             | Maybe they meant the Hep-C treatment?
        
           | touisteur wrote:
           | Isn't hep-b integrated in the penta/hexa-valent doses for
           | kids? (expensive compared to the old boring individual or
           | tetravalent ones, but subsidized in France at least, so I
           | guess French social security has more negociation power than
           | little me? right?).
        
           | chrisamiller wrote:
           | This isn't a preventative vaccine like that. It's something
           | that has to be developed _after_ you have cancer to target
           | your tumor 's specific mutational profile. So mass production
           | (just churning out the same thing in bulk) isn't really an
           | option! Costs will probably come down eventually, but it's
           | going to take research, technology development, and hard work
           | to make that happen.
        
             | polishdude20 wrote:
             | Is it possible that there is only a relative handful of
             | these profiles and we can have these vaccines already on
             | hand for each of them?
        
         | ugh123 wrote:
         | Do you think it will be that price forever?
        
           | remote_phone wrote:
           | For as long as the biotech company can keep it there
        
             | chrisamiller wrote:
             | I'm as critical of pharma pricing as the next guy, but this
             | really is a case where you're getting a custom vaccine
             | design just for you, and the profit margins probably aren't
             | very high. I certainly do think it'll come down eventually,
             | but there are lots of factors slowing that down.
        
         | mbiondi wrote:
         | If it's your life, it might be worth it.
        
           | screwturner68 wrote:
           | It's cheaper than cancer, the loss of work and the tens if
           | not hundreds of thousands of dollars spent on treatment,
           | $100K is totally reasonalble.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _it might be worth it_
           | 
           | It's absolutely worth it if you can afford it, which the rich
           | world can. But personalised medicine forces us to face, in
           | stark and dollarised terms, the inequity of healthcare access
           | across the world.
        
             | kulahan wrote:
             | My plan is to get it via a hospital which accepts public
             | funds. This requires them (by law) to offer a payment plan
             | that works for my income level.
             | 
             | I'm fine with """paying $1M dollars""" via a monthly bill
             | of $50 or whatever until I die and the rest of the debt
             | evaporates.
        
               | wing-_-nuts wrote:
               | I always wonder if they take assets into account with
               | this?
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _requires them (by law) to offer a payment plan that
               | works for my income level_
               | 
               | Which is a rich-world perk. (That, to be clear, we
               | absolutely should offer our people.)
               | 
               | Side note: do you have a link to more on this law?
               | Currently dealing with an uninsured friend for whom we're
               | pooling resources for a medical treatment.
        
               | kulahan wrote:
               | Certainly - here's the CFPB's page on it:
               | 
               | https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/research-
               | repor...
               | 
               | Note that this is for lower-income households
        
               | pkaye wrote:
               | Is your friend in the US? If their income is low enough
               | they would qualify for expanded Medicaid or ACA subsidy.
        
             | melling wrote:
             | Not to worry, it'll be 1000x cheaper in 10 years.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _it'll be 1000x cheaper in 10 years_
               | 
               | Personalised medicine has high cost floors. The factors
               | which would enable a triple order-of-magnitude reduction
               | in its cost would sooner realise massive savings
               | elsewhere, which means it's unlikely a niche cancer
               | treatment would be prioritised.
        
               | a-user-you-like wrote:
               | Then give it 50 years, have to start somewhere
        
           | elicash wrote:
           | I wouldn't want to burden my family with the debt.
           | 
           | Especially if it might not ultimately work.
           | 
           | That said, I appreciate that costs will go down over time--
           | even if only somewhat, if the author is correct.
        
             | xwdv wrote:
             | If it doesn't work you get your money back.
             | 
             | The worst case scenario is it works but you die in a car
             | crash anyway.
        
           | RobotToaster wrote:
           | Stand and deliver, your money or your life.
        
             | hprotagonist wrote:
             | i happen to know that this is the lupin express!
        
             | throwaway743 wrote:
             | Damn haven't thought of Adam Ant in years. Nice
        
             | a-user-you-like wrote:
             | Yeah, best to just not have developed it, or to wait until
             | a more equitable country like Norway develops it. Then it
             | will be fair.
        
               | carlmr wrote:
               | Norway and Germany aren't that different I'd say.
        
         | hprotagonist wrote:
         | personalized medicine of this form is one case where at least
         | for now the cost makes obvious sense. You're paying like 8 FTE
         | PhDs to hand-build you a therapy from your own body. It's not
         | even close to automated.
         | 
         | but: if it doesn't work, sometimes you get your money back!
         | (novartis has never had to pay out)
         | 
         | https://www.fastcompany.com/40461214/how-novartis-is-defendi...
        
           | stanford_labrat wrote:
           | I don't know if 8 PhDs is entirely accurate, biotech teams
           | are a thing and usually there are a good mix of non-PhD
           | technicians who support an individual project.
        
             | giantg2 wrote:
             | I image it like ML teams in tech - the PhDs are building
             | the models and the non-PhD are exposing the model,
             | jockeying the data, etc.
        
               | chrisamiller wrote:
               | You're right that there are a variety of folks working on
               | these things, both in academia and industry, but it's
               | more complicated than "PhDs do this, others do that". It
               | comes down to knowledge, ability, and experience, and the
               | best research groups grab onto that wherever they can and
               | slot people into the roles that are right for them.
        
           | pmarreck wrote:
           | Maybe there's a possible job in helping them automate this?
        
             | failuser wrote:
             | That might be a thousand times more expensive. It's not
             | software, it's biological processes that are hard to
             | automate.
        
             | hanniabu wrote:
             | That won't lower costs, only increase profits
        
               | pmarreck wrote:
               | That's bullshit, because it can do both. Increasing the
               | amount that can be made by 10x could both reduce unit
               | costs by 8.5x and increase unit profit by 1.5x. Get outta
               | here with your pessimistic external-locus-of-control
               | communism
        
               | gtop3 wrote:
               | Automation has a tendency to do both increase profits and
               | lower costs. This is because as the price decreases the
               | market increases. There's 500,000 new cases of pancreatic
               | cancer a year in the world. How many of them do you think
               | will have access to a One Million Dollar treatment?
               | 
               | This is not to mention how much of this tech could be
               | shared with other treatments for other diseases.
        
             | chrisamiller wrote:
             | There are lots of folks working on problems surrounding
             | automation and reproducibility to enable science in this
             | space. One such effort that I contribute to is
             | [pVACtools](https://pvactools.readthedocs.io/en/latest/),
             | (there are others as well). We do have a small team of
             | developers who work in concert with scientists and
             | clinicians to build these tools.
        
               | pmarreck wrote:
               | How would I apply for a job like that? I've always had a
               | strong interest in bio and computers (and physics, and
               | psychology, and...)
        
             | hprotagonist wrote:
             | safe bet people are working real hard on it; it's just
             | like, cell cultures are fussy and biology doesn't care
             | about you, so it's very much an uphill fight.
        
               | [deleted]
        
         | scarmig wrote:
         | Napkin math: the typical estimate for the statistical economic
         | value of a human life (in the US) is $1M-$10M. So if each
         | vaccine course can be targeted such that it saves a life with
         | 25% likelihood, it's likely a net positive. Future iterations
         | and new technologies based on it would hopefully drive the cost
         | down further.
        
           | epgui wrote:
           | In the US it was on the order of 10M$, not adjusted for
           | inflation, a decade or two ago (source: publicly available
           | DOT documents).
        
         | tjpnz wrote:
         | Presumably even less in countries with socialized medicine
         | where the government buys in bulk.
        
           | jdminhbg wrote:
           | In this case it looks like probably not, at least in the
           | short term, because it's all extremely personalized.
        
         | yieldcrv wrote:
         | I'm glad there are options in development! Let's hope there are
         | parts of this that can be reduced in cost with scale
        
         | jrussino wrote:
         | > $100,000/dose
         | 
         | I really wish I could see a transparent breakdown of that
         | number. How much of that is the amortized cost of R&D,
         | marketing costs, salaries for the executives and management,
         | etc? How much of it is actual production costs, and what do
         | those look like (raw materials, equipment, labor)? How much of
         | it is profit? What else could be baked into that price?
         | 
         | Does anybody here know of any publicly available reports that
         | detail cost breakdowns for pharmaceuticals like this?
        
           | peteradio wrote:
           | I think you are probably right that this is some sort of
           | Hollywood style accounting.
        
           | epgui wrote:
           | This is absolutely not surprising. When I was doing my MSc,
           | I'd often use up about 5000$ just in single-use plastic
           | consumables in a day. There were zero profit incentives
           | related to my project, it was pure fundamental research. Wet
           | labs are insanely expensive to run.
        
           | chrisamiller wrote:
           | That's not far off from the rates for producing custom order
           | medical-grade peptides and/or mRNA vaccines, coupled with the
           | expertise needed to design, administer, and monitor them.
           | It's certainly not a case where they produce it for 100
           | dollars and sell it for 100k. The market for this stuff is
           | beginning to develop, and I hope that we'll see new
           | innovative companies begin to produce them more cheaply.
        
       | treeman79 wrote:
       | So the Covid MRNA vaccine requires many boosters and doesn't
       | provide protection for long.
       | 
       | What are the odds this will be the same?
        
         | Retric wrote:
         | In this specific case boosters are likely unnecessary because
         | pancreatic cancer isn't contagious and if it works all the
         | persons current cancer cells are dead.
         | 
         | As to the need for boosters, it's more a question what benefit
         | a booster provides vs its risks and costs. Frequent measles
         | boosters aren't recommended in the US in large part because the
         | disease is already rare here. COVID is however still very
         | common which changes the exposure risks part of the equation.
         | 
         | This is also why vaccine boosters for measles are recommended
         | when you travel to specific countries.
         | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/travel-vaccines
        
         | peteradio wrote:
         | Covid MRNA vaccines short lived effect was more to do with the
         | characteristics of the virus and the way our immune systems
         | generally function, IMO.
        
         | fsociety999 wrote:
         | I am not entirely sure why you are getting downvoted. It says
         | right in the study
         | 
         | > Vaccine-expanded T cells were durable, persisting up to 2
         | years despite post-vaccination mFOLFIRINOX treatment
         | 
         | So yes, that seems to suggest you may have to keep going back
         | every couple years for more boosters.
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | I'd be fine with spending EUR100 per year on each of ten
         | vaccines that each need annual boosting, if that reduced by
         | merely 10% my risks from each of the top ten likely causes of
         | death and QALY reduction at whatever my age is in any given
         | year of my life.
         | 
         | This isn't that cheap, not yet at least, but I think "what's
         | the cost?" is a much more important question than "does it need
         | boosters?"
        
       | rubicon33 wrote:
       | Call me crazy but I am of a firm belief that the cause of almost
       | all cancers is viral in nature. It is a combination of a viral
       | infection and a failure of the innate immune response to stop the
       | virus. I believe we are stopping these viruses all the time in
       | our daily life and it is only when our immune system is under
       | duress (ex: age, smoking, chemical, etc.) that it fails to stop
       | these viruses.
       | 
       | I'm not a virologist, or a medical practitioner, just someone
       | who's interested casually in the subject of cancer and viruses.
        
         | epgui wrote:
         | I'm a biochemist with a biomedical background. Everything that
         | follows is a simplification, but it's truthy.
         | 
         | We understand pretty well what causes cancer in "otherwise
         | healthy individuals" (eg.: assuming there aren't particularly
         | bad genes involved... which is a whole thing on its own), it's
         | not a big mystery. We know with total certainty that "cancer in
         | general" is not usually caused by viruses, although some
         | viruses are notorious for causing cancer.
         | 
         | What causes cancer is whatever causes tissue injury and
         | inflammation, with some probability. This is why smoking causes
         | cancer, why drinking alcohol causes cancer, why sunburns cause
         | cancer, why ionizing radiation causes cancer... The more
         | chronic or frequent the injury/inflammation, the more the odds
         | stack up against you. Viruses that cause chronic inflammation
         | cause cancer.
         | 
         | (There are also a bunch of things that directly cause mutations
         | including some of the above, and those cause cancer too, with
         | some probability, if they overwhelm error-correction
         | mechanisms.)
        
           | polishdude20 wrote:
           | Is it specifically inflammation or rapid cell regeneration
           | which inflammation can cause?
        
             | epgui wrote:
             | In short, both, via a variety of mechanisms.
        
         | biotechbio wrote:
         | This is not true. Some cancers are caused by viruses. Many
         | oncogenes were initially discovered in viruses. But the
         | majority of tumors are definitely not caused by viruses.
         | 
         | This was a hypothesis in the field for a number of years, and
         | has been disproven. If you want a good overview of the history
         | of cancer, I recommend "The Emperor of All Maladies" by
         | Siddhartha Mukherjee.
        
           | panabee wrote:
           | where we agree:
           | 
           | * not all cancers are caused by viruses.
           | 
           | * only some cancers are caused by viruses.
           | 
           | where we disagree:
           | 
           | * that science has proven the majority of tumors are
           | definitely not caused by viruses.
           | 
           | could you kindly share a few of the studies disproving the
           | majority case? in particular, i'm interested in the sample
           | size and diversity powering these refutations.
           | 
           | to clarify, i'm not saying you're wrong. simply seeking to
           | learn more.
           | 
           | my research has uncovered misleading conclusions based on
           | studies with flawed methodology/logic. for example, this
           | study [0] states, "epstein-barr virus plays no role in the
           | tumorigenesis of small-cell carcinoma of the lung." based on
           | a sample size of 23.
           | 
           | [0] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14752524
        
             | biotechbio wrote:
             | Sure, a 2020 study from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole
             | Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium, looking for viral evidence in
             | thousands of tumor genomes and transcriptomes[0]. Part of a
             | massive, cross-institutional effort.
             | 
             | "Searching large pan-cancer genome and whole-transcriptome
             | datasets enabled the identification of a high percentage of
             | virus-associated cases (16%)".
             | 
             | Far from majority.
             | 
             | [0] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-019-0558-9
        
               | panabee wrote:
               | thanks for sharing. will dig into the methods.
               | 
               | based on ebv studies i have read (happy to share if you
               | want), some papers use flawed methodologies for viral
               | detection (e.g., checking for limited set of viral
               | proteins).
               | 
               | to reiterate, we mostly agree, except i adopt a more
               | restrained stance: the conclusion supported by science is
               | that viral causation is provable in some cancers -- but
               | not a majority.
               | 
               | which is a subtle, but crucial difference, from
               | concluding that viruses do not cause a majority of
               | cancers (much higher bar IMO).
               | 
               | for instance, past studies may have used flawed detection
               | methods or extrapolated from unrepresentative samples
               | like the lung cancer study shared earlier.
        
             | epgui wrote:
             | This is not really controversial. The majority of cancers
             | in humans are not caused by viruses.
        
             | chrisamiller wrote:
             | You're going to want to start with the PCAWG consortium,
             | who looked very closely at viral involvement across a host
             | of cancers. Their numbers:
             | 
             | Cohort: 2,658 cancers across 38 tumor types Findings:
             | Overall, 23 virus genera were detected across 356 patients
             | with cancer (13%)
             | 
             | You can read all of the details here:
             | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8076016/
             | 
             | I'm not saying that there aren't other mechanisms
             | (sustained inflammation, etc) that might contribute to the
             | aetiology of some other cancers, even without clear viral
             | integrations, but we can state pretty strongly that many
             | cancers are not directly caused by cancer.
        
               | panabee wrote:
               | thank you for sharing, will dig into this.
        
           | coldcode wrote:
           | Second that, its a great book.
        
           | rubicon33 wrote:
           | Thanks, I'll check that out. Bought it on Kindle and will
           | give it a read.
        
       | Maursault wrote:
       | Clumsy headline. It's a vaccine that inoculates against
       | pancreatic cancer. It wouldn't inoculate against the treatment
       | for pancreatic cancer, because why would anyone want to develop a
       | vaccine that prevents a cancer treatment from working? Headline
       | vaguely reminds me of _Brain Candy_ , 1996.[1]
       | 
       | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAn-mdS-otE&t=0m15s
        
       | georgeburdell wrote:
       | Vaccine seems like the wrong term as I think of it as
       | preventative. Perhaps there is no precise term for a treatment
       | that uses the immune system to fight an existing disease in the
       | body
        
         | nappingbat wrote:
         | There are two types of vaccines: prophylactic (to prevent or
         | ameliorate the effects of a future infection by a pathogen) and
         | therapeutic (to fight a disease that has already occurred, such
         | as cancer).
        
         | stronglikedan wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
           | pmarreck wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
           | nathan_compton wrote:
           | Hardly. One typically receives a rabies vaccine (for example)
           | _after_ infection.
        
         | tiahura wrote:
         | _Perhaps there is no precise term for a treatment that uses the
         | immune system to fight an existing disease in the body_
         | 
         | Immunotherapy?
        
         | cesnja wrote:
         | Rabies vaccine is also given after infection.
        
           | malfist wrote:
           | Tetanus can be too
        
       | up2isomorphism wrote:
       | Yeah, every normal US people is paying 10x for the basic medical
       | treatment compared to other developed countries in order to fund
       | this treatment for the super rich.
        
         | jjtheblunt wrote:
         | BioNTech is German, not US.
        
         | dang wrote:
         | " _Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents._ "
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
       | temptemptemp111 wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | valine wrote:
       | How do we get to the point where this therapy doesn't require a
       | team of scientists to manufacture? Is there a future where every
       | cancer center has a DNA sequencer and mRNA synthesizer?
        
         | elric wrote:
         | Googling the cost of DNA sequencing suggests that "human genome
         | sequencing cost decreased from $1 million in 2007, to $1000 in
         | 2014". That's pretty amazing.
        
           | voisin wrote:
           | It's been 9.5 years since 2014. Wonder how far down it's come
           | since then.
        
             | searine wrote:
             | Depending on options like depth and quality, a hundred to
             | 500 hundred dollars.
        
               | t-writescode wrote:
               | Don't forget "Your Insurance Will Totes Pay for It" CEOs
               | like the Epi-pen guy.
               | 
               | 500 hundred (50,000) may still be low.
        
             | mikeyouse wrote:
             | The $1,000 'cost' was the actual lab cost previously, we're
             | now at a point where consumers can buy WGS for under $400,
             | so the equivalent supplies/materials cost must be well
             | below that;
             | 
             | https://sequencing.com/products/purchase-kit
        
               | Workaccount2 wrote:
               | Is there a service that burns your results after giving
               | them to you?
               | 
               | I don't need an AI eugenic death squad coming after me in
               | 20 years.
        
               | gww wrote:
               | With the Novaseq X the cost is approximately $200 a
               | genome. One the current challenges is storing the
               | hundreds of gigabytes of data per genome.
        
               | ojosilva wrote:
               | I found the issue about storage quite interesting, went
               | digging and I found this article:
               | https://medium.com/precision-medicine/how-big-is-the-
               | human-g...
               | 
               | Although the article does not mention it anywhere, I
               | thought such repetitive byte sequences could be
               | compressed quite well with simple file compression. Went
               | digging again. I was wrong, compression of FASTQ genome
               | sequence files IS a thing:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FASTQ_format#Compression
        
               | touisteur wrote:
               | 1TB SD cards are a thing for 150USD now? Maybe two for
               | physical redundancy and some Reed-Solomon stuff on each
               | card?
        
               | gww wrote:
               | I wonder if that would be cheaper in the long term than
               | the typical NFS plus off site tape backups and/or cloud
               | backup used by the places I have worked. I suspect it
               | would become a logistical nightmare to store and keep
               | track of thousands of SD cards.
        
               | hkt wrote:
               | It'd be pretty amazing to have something like the optical
               | storage jukeboxes but for SD cards. Expensive, but
               | amazing.
        
               | touisteur wrote:
               | I mean we still give DVDs for MRI results here...
               | 
               | Edit: I'd prefer my biostuff data to stay mine and not be
               | saved in multitude cloud pinatas...
        
             | epgui wrote:
             | Got mine done at 100x coverage (BGI genomics short read)
             | for about 1000$ a couple years ago.
             | 
             | (The 1000$ figure you're citing is probably benchmarking
             | against 30x coverage, so 1k for 100x is a pretty good
             | price.)
        
         | chrisamiller wrote:
         | Part of my research involves designing these cancer vaccines.
         | There are different delivery mechanisms, but the need to
         | synthesize medical-grade peptides or mRNA vaccines is one of
         | the major drivers of cost. The sequencing costs are pretty
         | minimal at this point, but analysis of that data by a team of
         | experts is part of that cost as well. This is still largely
         | bespoke stuff that can't quite be standardized because we're
         | still figuring out the best approaches, but there are quite a
         | lot of people working on it!
        
         | malfist wrote:
         | By doing research like this. Universities prove it's viable,
         | then companys productionize it, sometimes with incentives from
         | the government
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | Also, how do we get there without effectively creating
         | bioweapons lab capable of immense damage in the wrong hands?
        
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