[HN Gopher] Arianespace CEO: Europe won't have reusable rockets ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Arianespace CEO: Europe won't have reusable rockets for another
       decade
        
       Author : carabiner
       Score  : 135 points
       Date   : 2023-05-05 05:58 UTC (17 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.space.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.space.com)
        
       | sdfghswe wrote:
       | As a European living in the US, one thing that I prefer about US
       | culture is that it seems that at least comparatively, Americans
       | are more willing to scrap what they have a start over (that's how
       | I see spaceX). Europeans never ever do that. Incrementalism is
       | great in some situations, and bad in others.
        
       | WhereIsTheTruth wrote:
       | Something is fishy:
       | 
       | [1] - SpaceX Accuses Europe's Ariane Of Unfair Competition
       | 
       | [2] - Europe eyes Musk's SpaceX to replace Russian rockets
       | 
       | I feel like EU's industry is being held back on purpose
       | 
       | Yet SpaceX benefits lot of subsidies from the US government, as
       | well as Tesla, hmm, methinking
       | 
       | [1] - https://worldcrunch.com/business-finance/exclusive-spacex-
       | ac...
       | 
       | [2] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/12/europe-eyes-musks-spacex-
       | to-...
        
         | lyu07282 wrote:
         | EU has been self-sabotaging for decades, but it usually is just
         | caused by economic liberalism / pragmatism. Although there is
         | of course a strong connection between european leadership and
         | the "Atlantik Bruecke" (atlantic bridge) which is an extremely
         | powerful and influential atlanticist organization, it isn't
         | always failing in favor of US economic interests. Germany did
         | surrender its advantage in solar energy technology to China for
         | example, there is no need for any explanation other than
         | (neoliberal) ideology and incompetence.
         | 
         | https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/last-major-german-solar...
        
           | WhereIsTheTruth wrote:
           | I'm not talking about that, Ariane is still a thing, it's the
           | expectation that comes from the US that they should instead
           | fund SpaceX and give up their industry, it's different, and
           | that's what I find fishy
           | 
           | The comments here doesn't help
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | Your just spouting ArianeGroup propaganda. They can't win
         | technically so they have to convince the ignorant and
         | politicians that its not their fault.
         | 
         | AraineGroup spend like 5 years screaming about unfair
         | competition and at some point SpaceX was sick of it and
         | returned the favor [2]. But SpaceX never really cared much
         | because they hardly see ArianeGroup as competition. They were
         | just sick of their insesent public statements and lies that
         | they were spouting about SpaceX.
         | 
         | There is a reason ArianeGroup never tried to bring any of this
         | before WTO, because they knew they would lose and had no ground
         | to stand on.
         | 
         | > I feel like EU's industry is being held back on purpose
         | 
         | Yes by incompetent ArianeGroup monopoly.
         | 
         | > Yet SpaceX benefits lot of subsidies from the US government
         | 
         | Government funding for Falcon 9, 300M$. Government funding for
         | Ariane 6 5B$. How unfair of the US.
         | 
         | SpaceX isn't 'eyeing' to replace Russian rockets. They have
         | been doing that for decades, first with Proton. Now with Soyuz.
         | OneWeb launches have already flown on SpaceX multiple times and
         | a few other will follow.
        
           | WhereIsTheTruth wrote:
           | Propaganda? eh c'mon let's not bring conspiracy theories
           | 
           | > Yes by incompetent ArianeGroup monopoly.
           | 
           | Incompetent? what kind of propaganda is that?
           | 
           | Shall i remind you who was scared to launch James Webb
           | telescope? and who successfully did?
           | 
           | What about Artemis? NASA ain't candid either :)
           | 
           | Why would the US ban Chinese 5G, they don't have it
           | themselves?
           | 
           | Sometimes it is about maintaining sovereignty and building
           | your own industry
           | 
           | You can't just rely on foreigners, look what happens for the
           | green transition, both the EU/US are stuck
           | 
           | Falcon 9? what about everything else? you are being
           | disingenuous on purpose
           | 
           | Another one: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/07/will-
           | the-ukraine-war...
           | 
           | Whos spreading propaganda?
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | > Propaganda? eh c'mon let's not bring conspiracy theories
             | 
             | You can call if 'PR' if you want to make yourself feel
             | better. But its the same thing.
             | 
             | Its representatives of a company making lots of false
             | public statements. To mislead people who don't know better.
             | 
             | > Shall i remind you who was scared to launch James Webb
             | telescope?
             | 
             | LITERALLY NOBODY. All this comment does is reveal that you
             | don't know anything about the space industry.
             | 
             | > and who successfully did?
             | 
             | Funding the launch was part of ESA investment into the
             | James Webb project. NASA always partnered with other
             | countries on big projects and they do different parts. In
             | the case of James Webb Europe was to provide launch and
             | therefore Europe picked the launch vehicle, obviously the
             | picked Ariane 5.
             | 
             | NASA has certification for launch vehicles, and there are
             | different levels. To launch the most expensive science
             | mission, such as James Webb, you need the highest level of
             | certification NASA has.
             | 
             | When a launch vehicle was started to be planned for both
             | Atlas 5, Delta 4 and Delta 4 Heavy had the necessary
             | certification. I assume only D4H would have the required
             | power (but I'm not certain on that). So had launch not been
             | assigned to ESA, James Webb would have been launched on
             | Delta 4 Heavy. And ULA would of course not have been
             | 'afraid' to launch it, as they have launched most major
             | NASA missions of the last couple decades.
             | 
             | Falcon 9 has achieved this same certification, I don't
             | remember when exactly, late 2010s. So SpaceX, if something
             | like James Webb would be competing for that missions. In
             | fact currently its the only rocket that is not sold out
             | with that certification. Falcon Heavy also has this
             | certification and will launch things like Europa Clipper.
             | 
             | The idea that SpaceX or ULA were to 'afraid' is so
             | moronically dumb that I can't even fathom where you got
             | this absurd idea from.
             | 
             | After that the rest of your post is just whataboutism that
             | has nothing to with my correction to your original comment.
             | 
             | > Whos spreading propaganda?
             | 
             | Not me, almost everything I said is plain fact. The only
             | thing that is questionable is if 'incompetent' is the right
             | word to describe ArianeGroup. Maybe that word is to harsh,
             | replace that word with 'noncompetitive'.
        
       | nunuvit wrote:
       | > Aside from Arianespace, Europe is currently fostering a number
       | of private rocket companies, including Rocket Factory Augsburg,
       | Isar Aerospace, PLD Space and Skyrora, with some of these rockets
       | to be reusable. However the rockets in development are light-
       | lift, whereas Ariane 6 and its possible successor are much more
       | capable, medium-heavy-lift rockets.
       | 
       | The real problem is that there's no prototype path for Ariane.
       | SpaceX had the grasshopper and others. The original space race
       | was very incremental.
       | 
       | Hopefully the smaller companies will succeed with their more
       | manageably sized rockets. Then they'll have to fight an uphill
       | political battle against the big incumbents, just like SpaceX
       | did.
       | 
       | Ariane could make prototypes too, but they probably won't.
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | There is no point in making prototypes for Ariane 6. What would
         | they be testing. Its mostly just incremental updates in
         | existing technology, if that.
         | 
         | The only really fundamentally new thing is the upper stage
         | engine and that's hard to prototype launch.
        
           | nunuvit wrote:
           | It's more about the humans than the hardware. Schedules slip
           | for many reasons. Landing and reusing a rocket is new to
           | them. There's nothing like reality to force people to be
           | realistic and get experience.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | I'm confused. Ariane 6 has nothing to do with rocket
             | landings. Ariane 6 was never and could never be a reusable
             | rocket.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | nunuvit wrote:
               | I just realized you said 6. I was connecting to the theme
               | of the article, which is reusables after 6.
        
       | tekla wrote:
       | Elon running a company running laps around the entire worlds
       | space industry. Obscenely impressive.
        
         | foderking wrote:
         | also running laps around ev
        
           | sofixa wrote:
           | That's no longer true, pretty much any big car manufacturer
           | outside of Toyota has caught up. Not only that, they provide
           | much wider variety of vehicles (from the Renault Zoe and
           | Dacia Spring all the way to massive pickups like the Ford
           | F-150 Lightning).
        
             | bequanna wrote:
             | Check the margins. Tesla actually makes money on EV.
             | 
             | Tesla could lower prices to undercut most of their
             | competition and still make money.
        
               | moffkalast wrote:
               | Maybe then the prices would actually match their build
               | quality.
        
               | throwaway50614 wrote:
               | Tesla has the lowest prices of all EVs and also the best
               | quality. Not even Mercedes or Audi EVs are better in any
               | metric including build quality and safety, regardless of
               | the absurd price.
        
               | moffkalast wrote:
               | Some brief Google searches:
               | 
               | > The 2023 Nissan Leaf has a base MSRP of $27,800
               | 
               | > Volkswagen e-Golf SE CVT, 5 seats: $31,895 (OTR)
               | 
               | > The 2022 Hyundai Ioniq hybrid has a $23,600 starting
               | price, which is among the lowest in the Hybrid Cars class
               | 
               | > 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EUV should remain close to the
               | current model that ranges from $28,795 to $33,295 (with
               | destination).
               | 
               | > The price range for the Renault Zoe varies based on the
               | trim level you choose. Starting at $33,990 and going to
               | $40,480 for the latest year the model was manufactured.
               | 
               | > Currently, the Rear-Wheel Drive trim of the Tesla Model
               | 3 starts at an MSRP of $40,240 with zero upgrades
               | 
               | Riiiight. Totally the lowest prices. Note that outside
               | the US market they also tack on import/customs fees,
               | making them ridiculously overpriced.
               | 
               | They may be pretty good at not rolling over, but so is
               | any other EV with a low mounted battery. As for the build
               | quality, the panel line jokes are basically popular
               | culture by now. I'm sure legacy manufacturers can at
               | least build a car body to spec. And include things like
               | dials and buttons, which apparently aren't cost effective
               | enough to Tesla's liking for the Model 3.
        
             | zpeti wrote:
             | Except ford is losing a ton of money on EVs. I think
             | yesterday a report came out their margins are -44% on EVs.
             | 
             | While they might be selling some EVs, they're pretty far
             | from what Tesla is doing as a business.
        
               | misiti3780 wrote:
               | Im not saying Tesla will always be the leader, but anyone
               | who says they're not now just needs to try to take a long
               | road trip in a mach-e vs a model-y. It will be completely
               | clear who is winning in EVs, from comfortable through the
               | technology and supercharging.
        
               | 0zemp2c wrote:
               | Ford and GM can't ever follow through on their own BS and
               | become "electric only"
               | 
               | What is GM's cash cow? Pickups and the
               | Tahoe/Yukon/Suburban/Escalade platform...pretty much the
               | polar opposite of "environmentally conscious" products
               | 
               | Ford? Same thing, monster F150s
               | 
               | These companies aren't killing their cash cows
               | 
               | Indeed, I expect both companies to dramatically tone down
               | the rhetoric on EVs soon and just refer to them as
               | "alternatives"
               | 
               | Or even worse, start PR campaigns highlighting the
               | inconveniences (charging times etc) of EVs
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | Yeah by listing models, but based on actual numbers of BEV
             | sold, Tesla is way ahead and still growing fast. And unlike
             | almost all of the others, Tesla is making money on EV.
             | 
             | Ford for example is losing 100s of millions on their EV
             | business. This quarter they had a negative margin of 102%
             | while selling 3% as many cars as Tesla.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | chroma wrote:
             | In the US, Tesla sells 2x more EVs than all the other
             | manufacturers combined.[1] In Europe, Tesla is the most
             | popular EV manufacturer, though Volkswagen is very close
             | behind. Until April of 2022, Tesla was paying a 10% tariff
             | on their Model 3/Ys in the EU. Now that they have a factory
             | in Berlin, they're reducing prices and sales are growing
             | faster than any other manufacturer.[2]
             | 
             | 1. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/04/gm-overtakes-ford-in-us-
             | ev-s...
             | 
             | 2. https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-price-cuts-stock-
             | euro...
        
           | sneak wrote:
           | And yet somehow people believe he won't be able to hire a
           | team to operate and scale an already-extant shitposting
           | website. The cognitive dissonance is pretty amazing.
        
             | _hypx wrote:
             | This is why people keep on insisting that large scale
             | accounting fraud is happening at all of his companies.
             | Every time Musk does something within our "field of
             | expertise" he looks like a buffoon. But magically, he's
             | suppose to be a genius outside of it. That does not add up.
        
         | theodric wrote:
         | Credit goes to Elon for picking an extremely competent COO in
         | Gwynne Shotwell to handle the actual running of the operation
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwynne_Shotwell
        
           | aero-glide2 wrote:
           | This is often repeated on the internet but I see no reason to
           | credit a single person.
        
           | machdiamonds wrote:
           | Credit goes to Elon for being an amazing chief engineer, but
           | also the rest of the entire SpaceX team.
           | 
           | https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta/eviden.
           | ..
        
       | wildekek wrote:
       | Europe's lack of proper launch locations inhibits startups from
       | attracting talent. So ESA sticks with Airbus since that's the
       | only option.
        
         | anonymousDan wrote:
         | Given it's size, I find it strange it doesn't have launch
         | locations like the US. Why is that the case - latitude?
         | Population density.
        
           | fhars wrote:
           | Latitude. Gibraltar is on the same latitude as North
           | Carolina. Most of the suitable locations are in French
           | Guayana, where the ESA launch site actually happens to be
           | located.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | Because you have to launch West and West of Europe there is
           | mostly land.
           | 
           | For polar launches Europe is positioned just fine.
           | 
           | It makes more sense to use French colonies in South America.
           | Those are perfectly positioned.
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | Isn't French guyana one of the best places?
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | For many orbits yes. But it has some disadvantages because of
           | how wet it is. Lots of rain lots of humidity.
           | 
           | But it certainty no reason to think its holding them back all
           | that much.
           | 
           | If SpaceX had a private launch site like that they would
           | likely go crazy.
        
             | machdiamonds wrote:
             | SpaceX's first launch site was at Omelek Island. It appears
             | that the challenging environment may have contributed to
             | one of the failures.
             | 
             | "Why the nut cracked is still a bit of a mystery. Musk said
             | the "prevailing thought" among investigators, which
             | included a mix of government and SpaceX personnel, is that
             | the heat and humidity on Omelek Island was a factor. Though
             | the nut was anodized to guard against corrosion, Musk said,
             | it may have been scratched at some point, compromising its
             | protection against the elements. "We had a series of
             | countdowns [during which] the rocket was exposed for quite
             | a bit of time," Musk said. "And the vehicle hangar for
             | about three months was not climate controlled."
             | 
             | Another possible contributing factor, Musk said, is that
             | there was an adverse reaction--so-called galvanic corrosion
             | --between the aluminum nut and the pipe fitting itself,
             | which was made of stainless steel.
             | 
             | Musk said SpaceX will replace the $5-a-piece aluminum nuts
             | with less-expensive stainless steel nuts to avoid that
             | problem in the future."
             | 
             | https://www.space.com/2643-falcon-1-failure-traced-busted-
             | nu...
        
       | danpalmer wrote:
       | I feel we're setting up for a SpaceX monopoly if they nail
       | Starship reusability.
       | 
       | The only meaningfully reusable rocket right now is the Falcon 9,
       | and while that significantly reduces the already cheap launch
       | costs, it doesn't really change them by an order of magnitude,
       | and with so many other costs, it doesn't make that much more
       | possible that was previously impossible.
       | 
       | Arguably Starlink is possible now and wouldn't have been before,
       | but there are other similar (fewer satellites) constellations not
       | relying on F9 being that much cheaper. Also arguably there are
       | more smallsats going into orbit, but I think RocketLab has done
       | roughly as much for them as the F9 has so far.
       | 
       | As for other providers, ULA hasn't got a lot of re-usability
       | built in, at least not to the extent that Starship
       | (theoretically) or maybe even F9 has. RocketLab is starting
       | reusability work, but is a way off anything good. Blue Origin are
       | continuing to... well... who knows.
       | 
       | I don't think anyone other than SpaceX are going to have usefully
       | reusable rockets for another decade. I'm also not sure SpaceX are
       | going to be more than 8 years ahead anyway because I don't think
       | Starship will be delivering on its promises for at least another
       | few years.
        
         | MangoCoffee wrote:
         | >I feel we're setting up for a SpaceX monopoly if they nail
         | Starship reusability
         | 
         | NASA gave contracts to BlueOrigin, ULA and others beside
         | SpaceX. ULA was the only rocket provider to Pentagon for a long
         | time before SpaceX come along. Jeff is as rich as Elon and he
         | did pump money into BlueOrigin every year. if SpaceX did a
         | better job then SpaceX deserved the market shares.
        
           | George83728 wrote:
           | > _Jeff is as rich as Elon and he did pump money into
           | BlueOrigin every year._
           | 
           | And notably, Blue Origin has been in business for two years
           | longer than SpaceX, but has far less to show for it.
        
         | jcfrei wrote:
         | They will definitely have a monopoly for the next 10 years. But
         | beyond that I doubt it - economies of scale don't matter that
         | much (yet) in rockets which gives other companies a chance to
         | grow.
        
           | chasd00 wrote:
           | one thing SpaceX did that doesn't get a lot of intention is
           | reignite innovation in aerospace. If SpaceX gets overtaken by
           | a competitor imagine the technology that had to be developed
           | to accomplish dethroning SpaceX. Many of these launch
           | companies sprouting up wont make it for one reason or the
           | other but it won't be because of lack of inspiration.
        
         | chroma wrote:
         | > The only meaningfully reusable rocket right now is the Falcon
         | 9, and while that significantly reduces the already cheap
         | launch costs, it doesn't really change them by an order of
         | magnitude, and with so many other costs, it doesn't make that
         | much more possible that was previously impossible.
         | 
         | SpaceX's charges around $1,200/lb to low earth orbit. Soyuz
         | costs around $8,000/lb. The space shuttle was $30,0000/lb.
         | Because of SpaceX's lower launch costs, they now put more mass
         | into LEO than the rest of the world combined.
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | No we are not. Because players like Amazon literally just spend
         | like 5 billion on launches for SpaceX competitors. And many
         | other constellation will do the same.
         | 
         | The government already is forced to have at least 2 providers
         | and they want more not less.
         | 
         | Other governments, Europe, India and China will not simply give
         | up.
         | 
         | And while talking about entities with absurd money, Bezos has
         | spend a decade now funding Blue origin he will not just give
         | up.
         | 
         | Venture capitalist are still funding many new rocket companies.
        
         | HDThoreaun wrote:
         | Does anyone know what's up with Blue origin? Bezos pumps a
         | solid billion into them every year but it doesn't seem like
         | they're anywhere?
        
           | Mountain_Skies wrote:
           | BO has a more traditional approach to design than SpaceX's
           | iterative process. They spend more time on simulation and
           | analysis than on real world testing. Right now it appears
           | that the SpaceX approach returns better results though they
           | do have to deal with the peanut gallery using tests that end
           | in explosions as an opportunity to attack the company instead
           | of acknowledging that it's part of the process. If Blue
           | Origin has a rocket explode, that's a much bigger blow to
           | them as RUDs are not a significant part of their process. It
           | also means their process is far less observable to outsiders,
           | so a year or two from how, they might have New Glenn rockets
           | in regular operation and for most, that will seemingly come
           | out from nowhere.
        
             | chasd00 wrote:
             | I don't think SpaceX's iterative approach would work
             | without extremely efficient production lines and know-how.
             | In software everyone can take an iterative approach because
             | you're just typing on a keyboard, you don't have to produce
             | a physical laptop at the end of every sprint.
             | 
             | IMO SpaceX brought a lot of the production lessons learned
             | from Tesla and applied it to rocket and engine production.
             | That knowledge and wisdom from making Tesla production
             | lines work isn't available at Blue Origin so I don't think
             | a SpaceX rapid dev approach could work there.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | SpaceX also does a lot of simulation. They are known to
             | have really good simulation team. And were very early on
             | doing simulation on GPUs and such. And that was 10 years
             | ago. By now they are likely far further along.
             | 
             | > so a year or two from how, they might have New Glenn
             | rockets in regular operation and for most, that will
             | seemingly come out from nowhere.
             | 
             | They will be lucky to have launched their rocket more then
             | once in the next 2 years.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | antoniuschan99 wrote:
           | BE-4 engine delay. It delayed New Glenn and also ULA Vulcan.
           | Vulcan is slated to start launching Amazon Kuiper Sats. And
           | Rocketlabs Peter Beck is saying these constellations are
           | slated to start going up en masse starting ~2026
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | By now Bezos is spending more then 1 billion per year.
           | 
           | BlueOrigin is a huge company already, and the basically make
           | no money what so ever. 1 billion might cover labor cost. But
           | given the infrastructure they are building and the actual
           | rockets and so on, it has to be significantly more then 1
           | billion.
           | 
           | Well they are making slow progress on a hugely complex
           | rocket, New Glenn. The might fly it in the next 2 years.
        
       | crop_rotation wrote:
       | Europe won't have lots of cutting edge technology for a long long
       | time. Sometimes I feel European policymakers think they have to
       | make policies for a prosperous society where the prosperity is
       | taken for granted. But if Europe keeps lagging technologically,
       | the living standards will drop. Europe needs to strike a balance.
        
         | el_mocambo wrote:
         | The EU bureaucracy is a catastrophy for European innovation.
         | The more EU there has been, the crappiest the ability to create
         | wealth/innovate has become. Europhiles like to boast about
         | Airbus or Ariane as "European projects" but they are not, they
         | are inter-states collaboration, and were create when EU
         | commission didn't exist with its vast bureaucracy and it's
         | never ending forms to fill. Can you name one Brussels backed
         | project that went somewhere?
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | Speaking as one of those Europhiles, EU grants are on average
           | a pretty great thing, you can see the effect first hand just
           | walking around any random town with EU project plaques
           | everywhere. If anything, the EU itself is doing the most to
           | fund practical projects and the excessive bureaucracy does
           | serve as somewhat of a safeguard against the rampant
           | embezzling that is otherwise the norm.
           | 
           | The problem with innovation here is extensive, both legal and
           | cultural. Some countries are downright hostile to startups.
           | In the US it takes what, $200 to open an LLC? In Germany you
           | better have 25000EUR ready for an equivalent entity. The
           | amount of regulations one has to adhere to is far more
           | extensive, taxes are borderline absurd, there's basically no
           | venture capital to speak of, so any actually successful
           | company is immediately absorbed by some American megacorp
           | with fat stacks laying around (e.g. Wolt Delivery bought by
           | DoorDash).
           | 
           | Most of the people who lived under socialist systems also
           | grew up in a culture where entrepreneurship was the pinnacle
           | of egoistic greed which probably doesn't really help.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | throwawayrocket wrote:
         | Even worse they preach developing world not to fund
         | space/advanced industries
        
         | saberience wrote:
         | You're acting like Europe is living in the dark ages. Don't
         | forget Europe also has companies like Arm and ASML, without
         | which neither Apple nor Intel would be able to make processors.
        
           | dejv wrote:
           | Don't forget precision machinery of all kinds: from
           | industrial CNCs, medical instrumentation or electron
           | microscopes.
        
           | rektide wrote:
           | ASML is where it is because Apple and Intel dumped a ton of
           | money into it. Intel especially back when they were doing
           | fine, before the current rockier years.
           | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-intel-asml/intel-funds-
           | ne...
           | 
           | Still an incredible company. Absolutely. But worth pointing
           | out how strongly they were driven to sucess by external
           | factors.
        
             | saberience wrote:
             | If it was just based on money, why wouldn't Intel do it
             | themselves, or anyone else for that matter? ASML is
             | basically a monopoly, there is clearly big money to be made
             | if someone else could make those machines.
             | 
             | I think you're doing disservice to the engineers and
             | researchers at ASML suggesting they are only there because
             | the US sent them money.
        
               | dralley wrote:
               | Because the only way to make it profitable for anyone is
               | to get the economies of scale of everyone behind the same
               | development. Intel, Samsung and TSMC all invested a lot
               | of money in ASML to get EUV over the finish line.
        
             | belter wrote:
             | The IPhone would never be possible without China. Or each
             | model would cost $10,000.
        
             | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
             | _> ASML is where it is because Apple and Intel dumped a ton
             | of money into it._
             | 
             | And also because the US gave them the EUV tech on a silver
             | platter to disrupt the Japanese competition and prop-up a
             | company with domestic presence on US soil.[1]
             | 
             | So, as much as it hurts EU fanboys and chip hipsters to
             | hear this, ASML isn't the result of some magic tech formula
             | developed on EU soil, but the result of a perfect storm of
             | strategic acquisitions on exclusivity to the right tech and
             | the right suppliers at the right time.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/65642319
        
               | brnt wrote:
               | > And also because the US gave them the EUV tech on a
               | silver platter
               | 
               | Things Americans tell themselves ...
        
               | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
               | 1. I'm European
               | 
               | 2. That's the truth. If you can't accept it and wish to
               | stay ignorant, then I can't help you.
        
               | brnt wrote:
               | 2. I can't help it that you don't show any proof and
               | clearly were not involved.
        
               | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
               | _> I can't help it that you don't show any proof_
               | 
               | I posted the source here 3 times. Not my fault you don't
               | read it.
               | 
               |  _> and clearly were not involved._
               | 
               | Did nearly a decade in the semi industry in Europe with
               | stints in Israel, Singapore and the US.
               | 
               | But you keep taking the blue pill and believe whatever
               | you want to believe, I don't have time to convince random
               | nay-sayers online and I'm not doxing myself to win an
               | argument with a troll.
        
               | MangoCoffee wrote:
               | "The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has announced an
               | agreement with ASM Lithography (Einhoven, Netherlands)
               | that would allow the company to participate in the
               | extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography development effort
               | now underway in Livermore, Calif."
               | 
               | https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-
               | effort/
        
               | sveme wrote:
               | Care to elaborate? Do you have a source for that? As far
               | as I know the EUV lenses part was done by Zeiss and the
               | EUV sources part by Trumpf.
        
               | dralley wrote:
               | Cymer (an American company that ASML bought out) makes
               | the EUV source. Trumpf makes the CO2 laser that feeds the
               | EUV source.
        
               | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
               | _> As far as I know_
               | 
               | Then you don't know the full story.
               | 
               | Important is who has the IP and license for the EUV
               | technology that has proven to produce the highest yields.
               | The only reason ASML won EUV lithography and its
               | competitors Canon and Nikon lost, is that US decided to
               | license its domestic EUV tech developed by Sandia Labs to
               | ASML, and denied it to Canon and Nikon, purely because
               | ASML acquired Silicon Valley Group Inc, US's leading
               | lithography supplier at the time, giving ASML a strategic
               | US presence on US soil, versus their Japanese
               | competitors.[1] Also, light sources are made by CYMER[2],
               | another US supplier that ASML bought.
               | 
               | Nikon and Canon could also contrat Zeiss and Trumpf for
               | the same parts that ASML gets but they don't have access
               | to Sandia's and CYMER's EUV tech which is better than the
               | EUV tech they developed in house.
               | 
               | So you see, ASML is not some European wonder as the chip
               | hipsters would want to believe, since it wouldn't own the
               | EUV market today if it weren't for strategic acquisitions
               | on US soil that gave them the EUV monopoly they enjoy
               | today.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/65642319
               | 
               | [2] https://www.cymer.com/light-source-technology/
        
               | sveme wrote:
               | That's a bit like saying that Google would not exist
               | without the contributions by Leo Katz. Or that Sandia's
               | EUV tech would not exist without Ernst Abbes
               | contributions. Everything's build on top of something.
               | 
               | But for some reasons all your posts seem to be intended
               | to downplay anything coming from Europe. Which is fine,
               | everyone needs a resident contrarian.
        
               | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
               | I'm not downplaying anything, I'm being a realist among
               | the hype that EU is some tech powerhouse when it's
               | objectively much weaker than the EU fanboys would like to
               | believe.
               | 
               | The US could have sold the EUV tech to Canon or Nikon and
               | the Japanese would have owned the EUV industry, but the
               | Dutch ASML played the political game better and won the
               | deal but selling US tech doesn't make it an EU
               | innovation.
               | 
               | And you can't compare licensed or bought tech to
               | individual contributions from indvidual persons.
               | 
               | The US still owns the EUV tech ASML is using and has veto
               | rights on what it can do with it and who it can sell it
               | too. ASML would love to sell EUV steppers to China and
               | make bank since China is desperate to ramp up its
               | domestic fab industry, but US says "NO" and it must
               | comply. The NL or the EU didn't veto the sale, the US
               | did, and ASML complied because the US Gov have ASML by
               | the balls since it's now also partly a US company
               | monetizing US tech.
        
               | saberience wrote:
               | Why would the USA "sell the EUV tech" to a European
               | company if any American company could do it? It makes no
               | fucking sense. The only thing that makes sense is that
               | there was no American company to "sell the tech" to.
               | You're living in cloud cuckoo fantasy land if you think
               | the US simply had EUV fully developed and just happily
               | donated it to a Europany company out of the goodness of
               | their hearts.
               | 
               | If the tech was so easy and America held all the cards,
               | the machines would be made in America, end of story.
        
               | TinkersW wrote:
               | This video covers EUV development in Japan and US:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_OOta7Y6Ik
               | 
               | Yes it was developed by the US.
        
               | foobiekr wrote:
               | I mean, all they have to do is read ASML's own writeup of
               | this [1]. It's basically US-developed tech, US-funded and
               | political-tactical partnerships. I just don't understand
               | the confusion.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.asml.com/en/news/stories/2022/making-euv-
               | lab-to-...
        
               | MangoCoffee wrote:
               | "U.S. gives ok to ASML on EUV effort"
               | 
               | https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-
               | effort/
        
         | lm28469 wrote:
         | It can drop for a while before reaching the US one
        
           | nivenkos wrote:
           | Compare European and US salaries sometime, you have no idea
           | how lucky you are.
           | 
           | There's a reason tens of thousands of European engineers,
           | doctors, lawyers, developers, etc. are desperate to move to
           | the US.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | I rather get a little less money and not live in a car
             | depended sprawl with cities full of homeless and no public
             | transport.
        
             | edgyquant wrote:
             | It's not luck, it's the result of long term policy.
        
         | Certhas wrote:
         | This is such a weird take. The global high tech economy is
         | tightly intertwined. The EU is an integral part of that, and in
         | many areas is doing perfectly fine. Further European
         | policymakers have for the last two decades done an overal
         | excellent job integrating eastern Europe into the Western
         | economic model. Of course first credit belongs to the states
         | themselves, but the border between Germany and Poland used to
         | be one of the largest GDP per Capita drops in the world. Now
         | the difference is marginal. This has happened inside one
         | generation. To accuse them of legislating only for already
         | prosperous societies bears no resemblance to reality.
         | 
         | The Internet and digitalization revolution enabled a few US
         | companies to capture vast amounts of value worldwide simply by
         | being first by having access to the first emerging market for
         | the new tech (and being ruthlessly business savvy). The US
         | being rich and an optimistic consumption culture made that
         | happen. Some of that windfall has been redirected to fun things
         | like boosting Rocket tech, or useful things like boosting EV
         | tech.
         | 
         | Speaking of the latter, I remember a few years ago a lot of
         | people on here were claiming that the US and specifically Tesla
         | had an unassailable lead in Battery Tech. That didn't exactly
         | last long, did it?
         | 
         | But the idea that the US is uniquely poised to dominate the
         | tech landscape for the next decades is silly, doubly so based
         | on some relatively niche tech like rockets. As a European I am
         | worried about the strategic tech competition with China, not
         | the US. And I am worried that the EU is not doing enough to tax
         | the profits being generated here, (cough, Ireland,
         | Luxembourg...).
         | 
         | ... and btw, it's all built on Linux, which was given away for
         | free by some European guy.
        
         | genezeta wrote:
         | ESA -and Europe in general, sure, but particularly ESA- also
         | has a massive bureaucratic problem.
        
         | batmansmk wrote:
         | Not saying you are wrong, US is lagging behind as well on many
         | other sectors as well compared to the rest of the world;
         | manufacturing, transportation, green tech, participative
         | democracy, integrated administrations to quote a few. Reusable
         | rockets make launching stuff cheaper, but integrated
         | Administrations save you millions of admin jobs that could be
         | redeployed to more game changing missions. Imagine not having
         | to declare your tax, or have bookkeeping, or file mountains of
         | documents to renew a visa.
        
           | throwaway06069 wrote:
           | > Imagine not having to declare your tax, or have
           | bookkeeping, or file mountains of documents to renew a visa.
           | 
           | I think you live in some parallel universe EU
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | The only one of these that might have a point is the tax one.
           | And possibly simpler health insurance systems.
           | 
           | (Schengen provides visa-free travel and living intra-EU, but
           | if you're from outwith the EU prepare for a mountain of
           | paperwork)
        
             | GrigoriyMikh wrote:
             | I work a regular full time job in Germany. Plus do some
             | investing and gigs. Declaring taxes every year. It's not
             | fun at all, basically you have to prepare for it the whole
             | year(keep track of your transactions, expenses). So i don't
             | see the point about "not declare your taxes". I guess, it's
             | valid only for the most unproductive people in society.
             | Generally, i have an impression that Germany benefits the
             | most unproductive(i.e. edge case poor and super-rich).
             | While putting all the pressure on the middle class.
        
               | ambicapter wrote:
               | > benefits the most unproductive(i.e. edge case poor and
               | super-rich). While putting all the pressure on the middle
               | class.
               | 
               | People say this about every country. I think it's just
               | that countries benefit the poor more than they
               | "contribute" b/c they have the least ability to do so and
               | people want their governments to be progressive. On the
               | flipside, everything is always easy for the super-rich,
               | because they have tons of resources to employ armies of
               | people that enable them to benefit from every loophole
               | possible.
        
         | rr808 wrote:
         | Europe needs more babies more than anything. Economically it
         | has many great companies, maybe not so high tech.
        
       | solarkraft wrote:
       | Oh boy. If this is true we've already lost the current-generation
       | space race. I don't see any other company that can fill their
       | gap.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | robomartin wrote:
       | This is what happens when someone is ten years ahead of everyone
       | else in development. And, to make it worse, when, during those
       | ten years, everyone ridiculed what they were doing.
       | 
       | In some ways this is exactly what "The Innovator's Dilemma" is
       | about, isn't it?
       | 
       | Would it make sense for SpaceX to become like Boeing and
       | sell/lease reusable rockets to others? Elon was well-known for
       | always using the reusable airliner argument when explaining why
       | reusable rockets were important.
        
       | beembeem wrote:
       | I don't claim to know too much about Arianespace, but I wonder if
       | this has any connection to the Russia situation and not being
       | able to launch Soyuz rockets due to sanctions.
       | 
       | https://spacenews.com/arianespace-and-oneweb-reach-settlemen...
        
         | 0xDEF wrote:
         | Has nothing to do with Russia. This is about the future
         | European Ariane 7 rocket that is meant to be fully reusable
         | like the reusable SpaceX rockets.
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | No it doesn't. Ariane 6 was planed to take over many of the
         | launches from Soyuz that ArianeGroup would usually launch
         | anyway, even before re-usability.
         | 
         | Both Ariane 6 delay and Russia situation are leading to many
         | launches moving to Falcon 9.
        
       | seydor wrote:
       | I don't get why these statements emphasize the antagonism with
       | the US. A lot of europeans see europe as extended US market by
       | now, and promising european businesses will move to the US for
       | faster growth. Ariane is a company , and of course they will find
       | it hard to beat the 'Amazon of space'. Their reusables would be
       | for the world, not just for europe. Europe already uses reusables
       | if it uses spacex
        
         | TulliusCicero wrote:
         | Seems pretty obvious why to me. Europe wants strategic
         | independence in this area, but SpaceX is radically more cost
         | effective and will remain so for the foreseeable future. That
         | means that European companies that want to launch satellites
         | will probably choose SpaceX, they won't want to throw money
         | away.
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | Meanwhile the US government is arguably doing the same with
           | SLS. Nobody's expecting it to ever be cost effective for
           | anything, but it provides said strategic independence.
        
       | samwillis wrote:
       | And likely neither will Russia, China, India, Japan or anyone
       | other than the US - with maybe the exception of New Zealand.
       | 
       | The writing has been on the wall for where rockets were going for
       | ten years, policy makers absolutely have failed, but let's not
       | pretend it's only Europe who have got it wrong.
       | 
       | Also, the negativity these sort of headlines bring to "tech" in
       | Europe as a whole are also unhelpful. Europe is absolutely at the
       | cutting edge of technology.
        
         | marian_ivanco wrote:
         | China is definitely working hard to have it, maybe copy-paste
         | approach but it is. We in Europe are definitely not cutting
         | edge in general, maybe robotic space exploration but this is
         | changing also rapidly. The problem is Arianespace and France.
         | It's the similar issue to HLS. It's just a way to distribute
         | money without any meaningful vision. Years of denial and
         | ridiculing of SpaceX. The sad part is there is still no vision
         | even when the world moved on.
        
           | weneedasfollows wrote:
           | Maybe a EU level spending package of 1 trillion, for a
           | resilient and equitable space exploration would solve the
           | problem
        
             | mutatio wrote:
             | Sarcasm I assume? This would merely be a redistribution of
             | taxpayers money with no end product. EU has form in this.
        
             | bluescrn wrote:
             | Why not, the money printers are still warm, just hit the
             | 'solution to anything!' button again?
        
           | jlpom wrote:
           | Robotic space exploration, like our rover that crashed on
           | Mars not a long ago?
        
             | ragebol wrote:
             | How about Rosetta en Philae?
             | 
             | But yes, also that rover.
        
         | throwawayrocket wrote:
         | New zealand will be the no 2 space power in the near future.
         | Thanks to Ex PM Jacinda Ardern, brightest woman of the world.
        
           | boeingUH60 wrote:
           | Rocket Lab is now a US-based company. I get that many people
           | like Jacinda Ardern, but attributing Rocket Lab's success to
           | her is just weird.
           | 
           | Rocket Lab couldn't even get enough funding in New Zealand,
           | which is why they had to relocate to the USA.
        
           | scanny wrote:
           | Why is that? Also isn't Rocketlab a US owned company ?
        
             | RowanH wrote:
             | Founded by a Kiwi. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_Lab
             | 
             | [Edit not sure what it's got to do with Jacinda though..]
        
           | vosper wrote:
           | Rocket Lab's success has basically nothing to do with Jacinda
           | Ardern?
        
           | throw-4e451c8 wrote:
           | And South Africa the no 1 space power, I guess. SpaceX was
           | founded by someone from there.
        
         | 8note wrote:
         | > The writing has been on the wall for where rockets were going
         | for ten years, policy makers absolutely have failed,
         | 
         | Policy makers made it happen in the states through what they
         | funded.
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | > with maybe the exception of New Zealand.
         | 
         | This has to be said over and over again. RocketLab is an US
         | company.
         | 
         | And RocketLab large Neutron rocket will launch from the US and
         | will be built in the US.
         | 
         | > Europe is absolutely at the cutting edge of technology.
         | 
         | Not in rocket technology.
        
           | soperj wrote:
           | It was founded in New Zealand, with a New Zealand
           | headquarters, by a New Zealander.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | > It was founded in New Zealand
             | 
             | Yes I know. But that is literally irrelevant.
             | 
             | > New Zealand headquarters
             | 
             | No its not.
             | 
             | The US is where their head quarters is, its where their
             | engine production is, and lots of other subsystems too, it
             | where much of its sat division is, its where they are
             | developing the Neutron rocket. One if its two launch pads
             | is in the US.
             | 
             | RocketLab is an American company that builds some
             | structures in New Zealand and has a launch pad there.
             | 
             | I don't know why its so fucking hard for people to operate
             | Wikipedia.
             | 
             | I am not saying this to discredit RocketLab, its a simple
             | statement of fact.
        
             | dotnet00 wrote:
             | Rocketlab HQ is in California, their condition for being
             | allowed to launch from New Zealand is that only US persons
             | deal with the ITAR stuff. They are an American company.
        
               | soperj wrote:
               | It is now, for business purposes. It was started in New
               | Zealand by a New Zealander with New Zealand investors. It
               | even got an investment from the NZ government. Their
               | first rocket was named after the Maori word for 'Space'.
               | Before acquiring SolAero last year, they had 525
               | employees in New Zealand and 150 in the rest of the
               | world. January this year was the first time they actually
               | launched from the US. All normal things for American
               | companies clearly...
        
               | AnonMO wrote:
               | [dead]
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | It's a straight up fact that the holding company for
               | RocketLab, Rocket Lab USA, traded on NASDAQ as KRLB, is a
               | US company.
               | 
               | Stop injecting nationalistic cheerleading into places
               | it's not necessary.
        
               | soperj wrote:
               | Lol. Not from New Zealand. It's like saying Burger King
               | is Canadian now that it merged with Tim Horton's and the
               | headquarters is in Toronto. I didn't even inject this
               | into the conversation, I was responding to someone saying
               | "over and over again" that it was an American company,
               | like it matters when over 90% of it's launches are still
               | in the country that it was founded in.
        
         | pb7 wrote:
         | >Europe is absolutely at the cutting edge of technology.
         | 
         | What technology? Do you have any examples, especially enough to
         | make such a broad statement?
        
           | farseer wrote:
           | This European machine has no equivalent in the World. You are
           | prolly using a product made by this beast.
           | 
           | https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-
           | systems/twi...
        
             | Am4TIfIsER0ppos wrote:
             | Is that germany's earth eating machine? Oh! It's a sillicon
             | wafer machine.
        
             | giobox wrote:
             | ASML is the obvious answer, but the list drops off sharply
             | IMO after this, especially in comparison to the US. Also,
             | around half of ASML's headcount is located outside of
             | Europe.
        
               | throwaway50614 wrote:
               | Not just headcount, also - and most importantly - the
               | patents and IP.
        
         | lenkite wrote:
         | I think its perfectly fine that a private space company
         | massively funded by billionaires and massive investment funds
         | show the way before government space companies tread the path.
         | Expecting govt funded organizations to innovate will only
         | happen in times of nation-to-nation competition or in times of
         | War. Usually, risky innovation is frowned upon and there is
         | little understandings of mistakes. Learning from many failures
         | - the SpaceX approach - is not tolerated for tax-payer funded
         | companies.
         | 
         | And doing it in a decade or two is actually fine. Tech will
         | stabilize by then and there will be more skilled people to
         | hire. Why the rush ?
        
           | sofixa wrote:
           | Pardon my French, but complete and utter nonsense.
           | 
           | > Michael Griffin. Griffin later estimated that SpaceX was
           | around 85% funded by the federal government, mostly through
           | his NASA awards, with the remaining 15% funding split between
           | Elon Musk and other private investors. He felt the amount of
           | government funding was "excessive in his view" compared with
           | what he originally envisioned for the commercial space
           | program.
           | 
           | From SpaceX's Wikipedia page. The Falcon 1 which was
           | expandable, nothing special and cost ~$100 million was
           | privately funded, the rest relied on _very_ generous
           | subsidies. (Regardless of Musk 's posturing and outright
           | lies)
           | 
           | On the contrary, outlandish and expensive (like aerospace)
           | moonshot bets with uncertain financial benefits often happen
           | due to government help, even in times of "unlimited money"
           | which are far from the norm. For starters, Tesla and SpaceX
           | both only happened due to US government subsidies; Airbus,
           | the by far best civilian airplane manufacturer today, only
           | exists because of European government pressure and funding.
           | Bombardier only managed to design the C-series with Canadian
           | government funds. All recent developments in renewables were
           | off the back of massive subsidies for their adoption.
        
             | chasd00 wrote:
             | the "government funding" of spacex is kind of a misnomer.
             | It wasn't like a grant or some handout. It was payment for
             | a product and service.
        
             | zpeti wrote:
             | A subsidy is not the same thing as NASA ordering private
             | contracts for actual "products"
             | 
             | Spacex didn't get money handed to them (unlike the corn and
             | oil industries). It got orders to complete certain tasks
             | that NASA thought it might do better than itself. Boeing
             | and many others got these types of orders too. It explains
             | nothing about why spacex succeeded.
             | 
             | This "Elon did spacex thanks to government" is a serious
             | misrepresentation of what happened, and if it was true, why
             | is the government funded EU space program struggling so
             | much?
        
               | raverbashing wrote:
               | The secret of SpaceX was that they got paid, but the
               | government didn't manage the program (which is common
               | with those other programs like SLS, Arianne, etc)
               | 
               | Also being in a position of 'up-and-comer' you definitely
               | don't want to stay behind
               | 
               | But that being said, being reusable is great, but not a
               | "be all, end all" objective. Sure, it can make launches
               | cheaper, but not even Falcon 9 is reusable if they need
               | to get to higher orbits (I believe the last F9H launch
               | was fully expended)
        
               | sofixa wrote:
               | > Spacex didn't get money handed to them (unlike the corn
               | and oil industries). It got orders to complete certain
               | tasks that NASA thought it might do better than itself.
               | Boeing and many others got these types of orders too.
               | 
               | According to the WTO, those are overgenerous and the same
               | as subsidies (check Airbus' cases against Boeing for
               | illegal subsidies).
               | 
               | > It explains nothing about why spacex succeeded
               | 
               | Indeed, just money (even government money) is not
               | sufficient. Never said it was, only that it is a flat out
               | lie to say only private funding can innovate and that
               | SpaceX/Tesla did it all on their own and Musk is a self-
               | made man/billionaire.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | > According to the WTO, those are overgenerous and the
               | same as subsidies (check Airbus' cases against Boeing for
               | illegal subsidies).
               | 
               | Interesting that you have to point to Boeing because no
               | such case exists for SpaceX.
               | 
               | And all of those contracts for SpaceX were cheaper then
               | what Arianespace could have offered, or any US
               | competitor.
               | 
               | You are just parating lies that ArianeGroup has been
               | spouting for a decade because they have no technical way
               | to compete. Its literally just false propaganda.
               | 
               | The reality is ArianeGroup has and had subsidies far,
               | far, far larger then what SpaceX had. The total cost of
               | the original Falcon 9 was maybe 400M and maybe 300M of
               | that was part of the governments program to get private
               | supply for ISS (that the Europeans handed over to the US
               | and SpaceX to do because they couldn't do it cheaply).
               | 
               | In comparison Ariane 6 is costing the government 4
               | billion $ minimum, likely more.
               | 
               | If anybody has grounds to complain with the WTO its
               | SpaceX.
        
               | throwawaymaths wrote:
               | > According to the WTO, those are overgenerous
               | 
               | SpaceX offers payloads to space at an _order of magnitude
               | lower price_ than its competitors.
               | 
               | Infinity times cheaper in the case of the CRS contract,
               | where the competitor has to date delivered 0 kg of human
               | mass to space
        
               | jackmott42 wrote:
               | SpaceX costs might be an order of magnitude cheaper, but
               | their prices are not, yet.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | > Falcon 1 which was expandable, nothing special and cost
             | ~$100 million was privately funded
             | 
             | Nothing special just the first privately funded rocket to
             | make it to orbit. The first new rocket engine developed in
             | the US for decades.
             | 
             | > (Regardless of Musk's posturing and outright lies)
             | 
             | Musk has always acknowledged and publicly called out for
             | the COTS contracts as being incredibly important and even
             | saving SpaceX.
             | 
             | > For starters, Tesla and SpaceX both only happened due to
             | US government subsidies
             | 
             | Both of those are wrong. Tesla was almost 10 years in
             | before they received a public loan, and the accepted it
             | because it was a slightly better deal then they could have
             | gotten privately but they had other funding options.
             | 
             | SpaceX Falcon 1 didn't happen because of the government.
             | The governments contract did accelerate the Falcon 9
             | project however.
        
               | orbital-decay wrote:
               | _> Nothing special just the first privately funded rocket
               | to make it to orbit._
               | 
               | That would be Pegasus in 1990, though.
               | 
               |  _> The first new rocket engine developed in the US for
               | decades._
               | 
               | There were plenty of engines developed in the US in that
               | timeframe. Merlin in particular was a "spiritual
               | successor" of the Fastrac, and Kestrel was implemented by
               | the former Beal Aerospace engineers who worked on BA-2
               | before being hired by SpaceX.
        
               | peterfirefly wrote:
               | Pegasus didn't have much of a path towards bigger
               | payloads, though.
               | 
               | (It's launched from underneath an airplane.)
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | > That would be Pegasus in 1990, though.
               | 
               | Fair point.
               | 
               | > There were plenty of engines developed in the US in
               | that timeframe.
               | 
               | Engines that actually flew or at least fully finished
               | development. As far as I know there are none.
        
           | cyclecount wrote:
           | "Massively funded by billionaires" in this case means that
           | the spoils of this research will be privately owned, yes. But
           | the taxpayer is still paying for about 80% of each rocket
           | that explodes. SpaceX's true innovation is in achieving
           | massive subsidies on collecting this data.
        
             | omnimus wrote:
             | This is the american way. What is surprising to me is that
             | nobody is upset about this. United states presents itself
             | as bastion of freedom and lean gov with minimum taxes. Yet
             | the taxes are comparably pretty high and the gov money
             | seems to go only up to rich companies and individuals who
             | pretend like this money doesn't exist.
        
               | danielrpa wrote:
               | I'm not sure that America presents itself as a "bastion
               | of...lean government with minimum taxes". It's so
               | obviously not true that I'd like to see any statement
               | from the US government in front of International forums
               | or through diplomatic channels in that regard. So if the
               | government is presenting itself this way consistently,
               | I'd like to see where this presentation is taking place
               | (vs promoting liberal values in abstract).
               | 
               | However, reduction of taxes and government intervention
               | is a common talking point in _internal_ politics. All
               | things considered, the US has done a better job than, let
               | 's say, Europe and Asia in keeping the government out of
               | economic affairs. No sane American libertarian would say,
               | though, that the government has been _successful_ at
               | being  "lean with minimum taxes", however it's doing
               | better than most other major countries.
               | 
               | Having lived abroad and personally knowing many people
               | living across the world, I can say that keeping taxes
               | "low-ish" and the market "free-ish" is rarely a topic of
               | conversation in the mainstream political debate outside
               | the US.
        
               | omnimus wrote:
               | It is presented like this in popular culture. At least
               | from my consumption of it. I am not even sure you can say
               | US gov is less involved in economic affairs than the govs
               | of the rest of the world. The taxpayer money has to go
               | somewhere and in other countries it seems to go more
               | towards infrastructure, social causes, healthcare. In US
               | it goes where? Defense and business development? So they
               | are probably more involved in economic affairs.
               | 
               | It's true that in europe lower taxes are not a topic.
               | Nobody really expects to pay less taxes. They expect
               | better services and guarantees.
        
               | cyclecount wrote:
               | Nobody is upset because nobody is aware (this is
               | hyperbole; obviously some people are aware and upset).
               | But from my time in the states, it is very clear how
               | effective US propaganda is. Working Americans don't
               | realise they are paying a huge amount in taxes, and
               | believe they can't have nice things like healthcare and
               | retirement.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | This is literally just wrong. This is literally publicly
             | available data:
             | 
             | https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/option
             | -...
             | 
             | The government is paying half. And that only for the
             | specialized Moon Lander version. And it requires SpaceX to
             | do a whole lot of things to.
             | 
             | Government pay nothing for the infrastructure SpaceX
             | developed, for the Raptor engine they have developed over
             | the last decade and so on.
             | 
             | This 80% number is complete nonsense.
             | 
             | If you want to make grand statements, at least do a minimal
             | amount of research.
             | 
             | Edit: And in case you are talking about Falcon 9 the claim
             | is even more wrong.
        
             | nordsieck wrote:
             | > But the taxpayer is still paying for about 80% of each
             | rocket that explodes.
             | 
             | [Citation needed]
             | 
             | The only support NASA has given SpaceX for Starship is the
             | HLS contract[1]. And that is a firm, fixed-price milestone
             | based contract. NASA doesn't pay for any failures there.
             | 
             | ---
             | 
             | 1. Technically not true - there is a very minor fuel
             | transfer demonstration contract. But that, too, only pays
             | out on success.
        
             | kitsunesoba wrote:
             | Even accounting for exploded rockets (which make up a
             | minority of SpaceX's 234 launches), I'd argue it's still a
             | better deal for the taxpayer than cathedral-style rocket
             | programs which will cost taxpayers even more despite
             | launching a fraction as often and producing data of minimal
             | usefulness due to the lack of new ground being tread.
        
               | larkost wrote:
               | While I think that that the setup around SpaceX is better
               | than etc format we have done before, I don't think it is
               | much less of a "cathedral" model. Really the only changes
               | in that model are that now there is a second "cathedral"
               | (SpaceX) next to the other one (United Launch Services),
               | and that "cathedral" is managed a bit differently (less
               | direct government/service-buyer control). Both are
               | controlled top-down.
               | 
               | It is nice that there are other players around this space
               | (Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, etc...), but all of them are
               | currently aiming at much smaller payloads (than Falcon
               | 9), or sub-orbital payloads. Those are different spaces.
        
               | nordsieck wrote:
               | > It is nice that there are other players around this
               | space (Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, etc...), but all of them
               | are currently aiming at much smaller payloads (than
               | Falcon 9)
               | 
               | Of SpaceX's future competitors, almost all of them are
               | aiming at larger payloads than Falcon 9.
               | 
               | * Vulcan: larger or smaller depending on how many SRBs
               | 
               | * New Glenn: larger
               | 
               | * Terran R: larger
               | 
               | * Neutron: smaller
        
               | kitsunesoba wrote:
               | Perhaps my choice of terminology was wrong... when I said
               | "cathedral style" I was intending to reference extremely
               | expensive long-tail projects that aim for perfection on
               | the first go, similar to SLS -- a generational
               | masterpiece, much like a cathedral, as opposed to a
               | cheaper, quicker, more iterative approach that aims to be
               | useful while growing out of its early stage limitations.
        
         | next_xibalba wrote:
         | > Europe is absolutely at the cutting edge of technology.
         | 
         | Lolwut!?
         | 
         | Which technology? Certainly not space tech. Certainly not AI.
         | To what, then, are you referring?
        
           | questime wrote:
           | 30,000$ Handbag technology, 100,000$ watch technology etc.
        
           | epups wrote:
           | SAP (got this answer from a German once)
        
             | mardifoufs wrote:
             | I think Europe is at or near technological cutting edge....
             | But absolutely not because of SAP. SAP is a big tech
             | corporation but they are the definition of enterprise tech.
             | And that's rarely on the cutting edge of anything.
        
               | fafzv wrote:
               | You are replying to a joke, or so I hope
        
             | moffkalast wrote:
             | That's like being the best at being boring.
        
           | dahwolf wrote:
           | Actual tech. Not the funny ad tech from SV.
           | 
           | Top 10 most innovate countries: Europe takes 7 positions,
           | including #1.
           | 
           | Machines for manufacturing: Europe. Machines to produce
           | semiconductors: Europe. Healthtech (Siemens, Philips):
           | Europe. Food tech and agriculture (Foodvalley): Europe. Water
           | management, port management: Europe. Aviation: Europe.
           | 
           | Your world is built on leading Europe tech. Admittedly, the
           | software isn't. Which is easy to tell because software is in
           | a shit state.
        
           | George83728 wrote:
           | All manner of cutting edge industrial and manufacturing
           | technology. Not the glamorous consumer-facing stuff, but
           | stuff like industrial automation equipment and software from
           | the likes of Siemens, ASML's EUV lithography tech, etc.
        
             | EliRivers wrote:
             | Indeed. I understand that if you want the world's most
             | advanced chip-making machines, it's ASML or nobody.
        
         | Reason077 wrote:
         | > _"with maybe the exception of New Zealand"_
         | 
         | While much of Rocket Lab's team is still based in New Zealand,
         | they are now a US-based company and their Neutron reusable
         | medium-lift rocket will be built in the US and launch from the
         | Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) in Virginia.
         | 
         | As far as I know they do not have any plans to launch reusable
         | rockets from New Zealand.
        
           | dogma1138 wrote:
           | I don't think RocketLab had plans to ever commercially launch
           | rockets out of NZ.
           | 
           | Its latitude is really not optimal for anything other than
           | polar orbits and it's too far from any potential customers
           | which would increase the cost considerably.
        
             | Reason077 wrote:
             | > _" I don't think RocketLab had plans to ever commercially
             | launch rockets out of NZ."_
             | 
             | Not only do they have plans to, they have _already_
             | launched multiple commercial missions on their Electron
             | rocket from NZ!
             | 
             | > _" Its latitude is really not optimal for anything other
             | than polar orbits"_
             | 
             | I don't think latitude is the major reason. Rocket Lab's
             | Ahuriri Point launch site is at about 39.2 deg S, not that
             | much different to the Wallops Island, Virginia site at 37.8
             | deg N. Baikonur Cosmodrome, by comparison, is at 46 deg N!
             | 
             | > _" it's too far from any potential customers which would
             | increase the cost considerably."_
             | 
             | Yeah, this is the real issue.
        
               | skykooler wrote:
               | It seems to me that if you're spending millions of
               | dollars on a satellite launch, the cost of shipping your
               | satellite to New Zealand is tiny in comparison.
        
               | sidewndr46 wrote:
               | I think the concern is the possibility of damage in
               | transit. I think most of the ESA & NASA's scientific
               | missions effectively get final assembly on site, followed
               | by a pre-launch check, then clearance to be placed in the
               | final stage's payload chamber.
        
               | syedkarim wrote:
               | The Ariane 5 launches from South America. The rocket and
               | the payload are shipped from Europe to French Guiana.
        
               | Reason077 wrote:
               | Yeah, but that's because there isn't a suitable launch
               | site in France or elsewhere on the European continent.
               | Rocket Lab do have launch sites in the USA, so why go to
               | all the trouble of shipping everything to New Zealand?
        
               | sidewndr46 wrote:
               | I'm reasonably certain the Ariane rockets are not shipped
               | in final form to South America: https://www.esa.int/Scien
               | ce_Exploration/Space_Science/Rosett...
        
               | jackmott42 wrote:
               | Their current rocket is a smallsat launcher, it isn't
               | that expensive.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | Polar orbit is actually what small sats are launched to
             | most often.
             | 
             | And the distance doesn't really matter much. Its not that
             | expensive.
             | 
             | The reason to go the the US, is US military launch more
             | then anything else.
        
         | BiteCode_dev wrote:
         | Also, the US administration didn't got it right, because Nasa
         | didn't do it. They had spacex to do it for them, while half of
         | american society is insulting the elon musk.
         | 
         | Let's not pretend any administration got it right.
         | 
         | Just like the french administration had nothing to do with
         | Pasteur creating the vaccine against rabies, the German
         | administration has nothing to do Gutenberg creating the press
         | and italian administration has nothing to do with Salvatore
         | Sanfilippo creating redis.
         | 
         | At best, administrations from the past may be somewhat credited
         | to foster an environment favorable for something like this to
         | happen.
         | 
         | And even that is a stretch, given most administrations don't
         | design anything, but rather react politically to whatever is
         | the current situation.
        
           | Laremere wrote:
           | SpaceX was nearly bankrupt when NASA awarded them $1.6
           | Billion to deliver cargo to the ISS, saving the company when
           | it only had one successful launch. Then later on for the
           | commercial crew program they selected SpaceX along with the
           | (then perceived to be) safer bet of Boeing. Not to mention
           | all of the other launches SpaceX has done for NASA or other
           | government organizations.
        
           | robomartin wrote:
           | This is an important comment. Governments, politicians, love
           | to take credit for what other people accomplish, when, in
           | reality, at best, they might provide money.
           | 
           | Imagine a scenario where you start a company that solves a
           | really difficult problem --taking years of hard work-- and
           | then a VC who provided funding takes credit for the effort.
           | Even worse, the news organizations give the VC credit for the
           | results. That's what politicians do.
        
             | Mountain_Skies wrote:
             | In general, but Kennedy set the goal for a manned Moon
             | mission, which was a very expensive and risky undertaking.
             | LBJ and Nixon kept what Kennedy started going, but had
             | Nixon won in 1960, it's doubtful that he would have focused
             | on the same goals for space.
        
               | robomartin wrote:
               | Sure, yet, they didn't "do it". They provided the means.
               | They can take credit for that, justly so. They cannot
               | take credit for the work of the massive numbers of people
               | who did the actual work that got it done.
               | 
               | I feel that's a very important distinction. It's like
               | taking credit for cooking a meal at a restaurant just
               | because you paid for it.
               | 
               | The other side of it is what politicians do when things
               | go wrong: They blame the people doing the work. Well, if
               | they take credit for the success they should be equally
               | liable for all failure. That, of course, will never
               | happen.
               | 
               | Same thing with the economy. When things get better, they
               | did it. When things are bad, the prior administration was
               | at fault. They all do this, regardless of which political
               | party they might align with. You know, just like three
               | year old kids.
        
           | Mountain_Skies wrote:
           | The Obama administration should be credited for ending the
           | government's monopoly on leading the direction of space
           | endeavors. And Trump's administration mostly followed that
           | course and stayed out of private aerospace's way. It's only
           | been the current administration (ironic given Biden's
           | connection to Obama being his VP) that's tried to reverse
           | course and return to the cost-plus MIC paradigm that
           | entrenched players loved so much.
        
             | peterfirefly wrote:
             | COTS began under W.
        
             | dotnet00 wrote:
             | Lets also not forget that even then, much of the
             | administration had to be dragged kicking and screaming into
             | opening things up for private space enterprise. It took a
             | lot of effort from a handful of people to make the
             | government even give it a chance.
             | 
             | Recently I learned that the opposition to the idea was so
             | harsh that an FBI investigation lasting 4 years was even
             | kicked off based on a theory about how Obama, Musk and
             | NASA's deputy admin Lori Garver were conspiring with
             | foreign powers to destroy the US space program.
        
           | aaronblohowiak wrote:
           | > Let's not pretend any administration got it right
           | 
           | Well allowing and encouraging commercial space missions to
           | unlock private sector was politically challenging and a huge
           | win; not something you'd see in many other jurisdictions
        
           | peterfirefly wrote:
           | > At best, administrations from the past may be somewhat
           | credited to foster an environment favorable for something
           | like this to happen.
           | 
           | That is exactly what they did and lots of politicians tried
           | to prevent it.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Orbital_Transportat.
           | ..
           | 
           | We need something similar in the EU... and we definitely need
           | less France in the EU.
        
         | bluescrn wrote:
         | The US won't have the tech in 10 years either if current levels
         | of political tribalism continue.
         | 
         | Seems that a lot of people want to see Elon destroyed over
         | Twitter/politics. See the incredibly negative reaction to the
         | Starship launch attempt compared to the much more positive
         | reaction to previous test flights that ended with a boom.
         | 
         | And if they destroy our current best hope for the future of
         | space exploration in the process of going after Elon, they
         | don't care, it's 'a win for the environment', or acceptable
         | collateral damage to take down an 'evil multibillionaire'
         | 
         | (Maybe Elon should even consider stepping away from SpaceX? -
         | but then projects as ambitious/risky as Starship would likely
         | be dropped)
        
           | usefulcat wrote:
           | Elon is a great salesman, but I think SpaceX is far enough
           | along that it would be fine without him. Maybe better than
           | fine, given how reckless he can be.
        
             | chasd00 wrote:
             | i remember an interview with Tom Mueller (sorry no link)
             | where he was talking about Musk and how he insisted on face
             | sealing pintle injectors for the Merlin engine. Everyone
             | was telling him it couldn't be done but, as Tom put it, "it
             | turns out, it got done."
             | 
             | may not have that exactly right but hte point is Elon, at
             | least in the early days of SpaceX, was definitely more than
             | a salesman.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | Its so fucking dumb to call Musk a salesman. Sales were
             | handled by Shotwell and SpaceX had other expert at dealing
             | with costumers. Sales is about the last thing Musk does for
             | SpaceX.
        
               | usefulcat wrote:
               | I didn't mean to imply that he is or was literally A
               | Salesman For SpaceX. I meant that he's good at promoting
               | things, and even in inspiring feverish loyalty amongst
               | his followers.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | So who did the actual leading of these company, if Musk
               | was just promoting things. Who made the important
               | technical and financial choices? Who hired the important
               | people?
               | 
               | Maybe its more accurate to say that Musk is simply good
               | at leading technical companies?
               | 
               | > feverish loyalty amongst his followers
               | 
               | You mean his employees? Most of them don't seem feverish.
               | 
               | And if you mean people that are not his employees how
               | does that have anything to do with SpaceX?
        
               | kibwen wrote:
               | You said it yourself: Shotwell does. Elon Musk does as
               | much for SpaceX as Ronald McDonald does for McDonald's.
        
               | bottlepalm wrote:
               | No, it is Elon. He makes all the final decisions,
               | business and technical. Gwynne is working on Starship now
               | because Elon decided it.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Its always funny when Musk haters have to scratch out
               | arguments to not give him credit. Funny how neither
               | Shotwell or any other of the leaders of SpaceX would
               | agree with you. But I guess you know better.
        
             | IMTDb wrote:
             | His recklessness is exactly what got him results. He is
             | basically saying "fuck it lets blow up rockets until it
             | works". And it does end up working because he was able to
             | surround himself with people that are able to integrate
             | teaching from each "failed" launch and improve the product.
             | The day SpaceX swaps a reckless CEO for a careful one is
             | the day they will stop blowing up rockets. It is also the
             | day the competition will start to catch up.
        
               | usefulcat wrote:
               | I agree that a certain amount of RUD is both expected and
               | quite good for SpaceX. I mean, clearly they're doing
               | quite well, so it seems pretty obvious that this is true?
               | 
               | When I said 'reckless', I was referring more to the
               | repeated WTFs in his handling of the twitter acquisition,
               | including but not limited to the acquisition itself.
        
               | golemotron wrote:
               | Yes. It's hilarious seeing proponents of agile who are
               | not able to recognize it when it is applied in a non-
               | software context. "Haha look at the fool! He can't get it
               | right the first time."
        
               | andrewflnr wrote:
               | How sure are you that the proponents of agile and those
               | criticizing Elon are the same people? In my limited
               | experience, they are definitely not.
        
             | thepasswordis wrote:
             | >salesman
             | 
             | Yeah he was somehow able to start both Tesla, a wildly
             | successful paradigm shifting hard tech company, and then go
             | on to start SpaceX, an even more paradigm shifting, wildly
             | successful hard tech company that has absolutely blown out
             | every single competitor on earth to the point of
             | embarrassment.
             | 
             | What does it take for people to just accept that he's a
             | genius? Is that seriously so difficult? Clearly he's doing
             | _something_ and it isn't sales.
        
               | jshier wrote:
               | He started neither of those companies.
        
               | throwaway50614 wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
               | throwaway50614 wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
               | thepasswordis wrote:
               | Oh really? I thought he started Tesla. So what was Tesla
               | before he bought it? A successful car company producing
               | cars?
        
             | bluescrn wrote:
             | Without Elon, SpaceX could surely succeed as a business,
             | making good money from launch services and Starlink.
             | 
             | They wouldn't get to Mars, though. Starship needs the
             | 'recklessness' of being prepared to fail rapidly,
             | repeatedly, dramatically, and incredibly publicly, while
             | learning from each failure.
             | 
             | So far they've managed to ensure that no humans have been
             | injured during launch/landing failures (although the
             | delayed flight termination of the recent launch was
             | worrying, and should probably be more of a concern than the
             | launch site damage)
        
               | kibwen wrote:
               | A focus on Mars could itself bankrupt SpaceX. There's no
               | money to be made from a Mars base. If it distracts from
               | pursuing prospects that actually have economic demand, it
               | will be a disadvantage that competitors will exploit.
        
               | lutorm wrote:
               | Well, a focus on being able to _get to_ Mars basically
               | means  "figure out how to launch stuff extremely
               | cheaply". I think they've been clear that SpaceX is not
               | going to build a Mars base, they just count on it
               | happening once you've driven the cost for getting stuff
               | to Mars sufficiently low. And if you can launch enough
               | things into orbit that a Mars base is feasible, you'll
               | certainly beat everyone else on commercial launches, too.
               | 
               | SpaceX plows all its profits into this goal. (Its
               | shareholders aren't getting any returns, not for a long
               | time. The SpaceX investors are playing an extremely long
               | game.) And if you constantly use all your profits to
               | improve your capability, you have a huge long-term
               | advantage over companies that exist to make a profit for
               | their shareholders.
        
               | cronix wrote:
               | > Without Elon, SpaceX could surely succeed as a
               | business, making good money from launch services and
               | Starlink.
               | 
               | Sure, now that he's pushed them to where they are with
               | his vision. Would we even be talking about landable
               | rockets today without his involvement?
        
           | krastanov wrote:
           | Was the last Starship launch actually covered or reacted to
           | differently? New York Times basically said "it exploded but
           | experts agree that this was an important step forward" and
           | all coverage and reactions I saw were "gosh, this is awesome,
           | better luck next time". The negative comments I saw were the
           | same I have been seeing since Falcon 9 was learning how to
           | land.
        
             | pinkwinds wrote:
             | Not sure if this will add much, but I've never seen any
             | negative comments before this - perhaps because I'm not
             | really in this space (no pun intended) and don't follow
             | these events. I saw plenty this time around.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | > See the incredibly negative reaction to the Starship launch
           | attempt compared to the much more positive reaction to
           | previous test flights that ended with a boom.
           | 
           | You are rewriting history. The same fucking thing happens
           | everytime a rocket explodes. The same reaction happened with
           | the earlier test flights again.
           | 
           | Some dumb idiots in the media and twitter right bullshit. A
           | few dumb politicans try to cash in and do a bunch of saber
           | rattling in congress.
           | 
           | Same game over and over, it doesn't matter and doesn't change
           | anything.
           | 
           | SpaceX or Musk will not be destroyed by this nonsense.
        
             | andrewflnr wrote:
             | Eh, I do think the dumb flak was worse with this one,
             | possibly only because it got wider press than previous
             | launches, but that itself might be due to tribal concerns,
             | with Musk generally having more eyes on him. I've been sort
             | of following SpaceX for years, and I definitely saw more
             | dumb stuff about the recent test than any previous one.
        
               | stirlo wrote:
               | While I tend to agree I think even those in the know were
               | in shock about the amount of damage to the pad. And
               | subsequent disclosure by musk that control was lost at
               | ~30s is also rather shocking compared expectations of an
               | issue occurring later at stage separation or reentry.
        
           | CydeWeys wrote:
           | Who cares what some people want to see? All that matters is
           | what they can actually help to make happen. And Elon being
           | "destroyed" is only gonna happen through his own actions.
           | He's his own worst enemy, and yes, buying Twitter and all of
           | his subsequent actions with it were a huge mistake, a big
           | unforced error. He's turned a lot of people against him, and
           | for what. Hell, I'm very enthusiastic about space travel and
           | yet he's even turned me against him somewhat, as I absolutely
           | hate the waves of layoffs across tech his actions have
           | precipitated. Him and Zuck basically gave everyone else
           | "permission" too, and us tech workers have suffered severely
           | for it.
        
             | whatwhaaaaat wrote:
             | For saving discourse on the internet. You don't have to
             | agree with his positions but there is no denying he has
             | brought back the ability to discuss sensitive topics
             | without a throng of zealots having their reports result in
             | quick censoring.
             | 
             | It's like you all forgot we just spent three years calling
             | anyone who disagreed on an untested therapeutic that
             | doesn't even work a racist.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | > It's like you all forgot we just spent three years
               | calling anyone who disagreed on an untested therapeutic
               | that doesn't even work a racist.
               | 
               | Please be more specific because I have no idea what
               | you're referring to.
        
               | mikeyouse wrote:
               | None of that is remotely reflective of reality.
        
               | hersko wrote:
               | What do you mean? Alex Berenson was kicked off of twitter
               | in the summer of 2021 because of factually correct tweets
               | about covid [1].
               | 
               | [1]
               | https://twitter.com/davidzweig/status/1607382645603704834
        
             | golemotron wrote:
             | That's sort of shooting the messenger. Tech was overvalued
             | for a long time. A lot of make-work.
        
             | dotnet00 wrote:
             | The wave of layoffs in tech had started before his layoffs
             | at Twitter. By the time the Twitter layoffs started people
             | here were already talking about how tech companies in
             | general were about to have large waves of layoffs.
        
             | aksss wrote:
             | You're blaming Musk for a wave of layoffs in the tech
             | industry? That he gave permission to other companies to do
             | it? Are you saying the layoffs made good business sense but
             | somehow these companies were prevented from doing so? What
             | was preventing them? Was that factor "correct" or
             | "healthy"?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | stainablesteel wrote:
           | the media wants to see elon go down
           | 
           | every time i touch grass while talking about elon people are
           | always amazed with him, why is that?
        
             | debatem1 wrote:
             | What does "touch grass" in this context mean?
             | 
             | If you mean "every time I am smoking a joint and talking
             | about Elon" I guess I'm not surprised. If you mean "every
             | time I go outside and talk to people about Elon" I
             | definitely am. There are large parts of my (quite liberal)
             | state where a Tesla gets a pretty negative reaction.
        
               | stainablesteel wrote:
               | i'm basically saying every time i go out and am included
               | in a discussion involving elon. for the past 2 years this
               | has been my experience, i've been traveling throughout 3
               | different very liberal cities and i don't find people who
               | are as disgusted with his as the media implies. i think
               | that echo chamber is a small one meant to deceive people.
               | 
               | if he was such a bad person, why is he doing so much good
               | in the world?
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | jackmott42 wrote:
           | Elon brought that on himself. Fortunately SpaceX will be fine
           | even without him at this point.
        
             | consumer451 wrote:
             | Elon going all-in on politics is one of the most
             | disappointing and surprising events in my adult life.
             | Certainly a good lesson in hero worship though. Agreed on
             | SpaceX at this point. Although it would be different, not
             | sure there is a business case for Mars for example.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | What do you mean going 'all-in' on politics. He still
               | doing the exact same thing as before, running SpaceX and
               | Tesla.
               | 
               | By 'all-in' you mean make a few statements on twitter
               | about his opinion? Because that is very different
               | definition for 'all-in' then I have. Going 'all-in' would
               | be to try to get elected president or some dumb shit like
               | that.
        
               | jackmott42 wrote:
               | He spent 44 billion to be a right wing twitter troll.
        
               | consumer451 wrote:
               | > He still doing the exact same thing as before, running
               | SpaceX and Tesla.
               | 
               | I think we are living in different realities, which is
               | the new normal I suppose. You missed one company he has
               | recently purchased. You know, the one that is 100%
               | political in nature? Jeez, just imagine the space
               | telescopes or moon bases he could have invested in, but
               | instead we got Twitter allowing self-described Nazis back
               | on the platform. What a tragic waste of Musk's resources,
               | both mental and financial.
               | 
               | What I meant by "all-in" was jumping headlong into the
               | hyper-partisan political fray - and loudly choosing a
               | side!
               | 
               | Musk 2021: Elon Musk said he prefers to stay out of
               | politics [0]
               | 
               | Musk 2022: Elon Musk says he'll vote Republican, bashes
               | Democrats [1]
               | 
               | [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/elon-musk-tesla-
               | spacex-spend...
               | 
               | [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/elon-musk-says-hell-
               | vote-rep...
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Yes running Twitter and Boring as well, but practically
               | the waste majority of his time is Tesla and SpaceX.
               | 
               | I believe Musk fought buying Twitter would be both good
               | politically and he could lead the company more
               | successfully. Hence he wanted to get out of it when it
               | was clear that it was a huge as shares dropped.
               | 
               | > Musk 2022: Elon Musk says he'll vote Republican, bashes
               | Democrats [1]
               | 
               | I'm not disagreeing that Musk go more political, but
               | calling it 'all-in' is LITERALLY wrong.
               | 
               | All-in would be doing politics as his primary occupation.
        
               | HelloMcFly wrote:
               | Elon Musk went all-in on the culture war of American
               | politics and has vocally sided with the political party
               | on an authoritarian and minoritarian track. He has put
               | his thumb on the scale on more ways than one, including
               | seemingly bad-faith actions e.g. his banning of
               | journalists and unbanning of much less savory characters.
               | 
               | He's not running for office, but he's inserted himself
               | part of the larger political narrative.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Again, this word 'all-in' simply doesn't mean what you
               | think it means.
               | 
               | He is not doing a TV show on Fox News 5 days a weak, he
               | isn't running for president.
               | 
               | He occasionally tweets something that is political or
               | runs arguable runs Twitter in a political (not sure if
               | its possible to run Twitter in a politically neutral
               | way).
               | 
               | His actual job that he spends 95% of his time on is
               | running SpaceX and Tesla, just like before he bought
               | Twitter.
        
               | aksss wrote:
               | I think you find some of these people "getting political"
               | because they've been cornered and/or burned by
               | media/government/politicians/ngos, badly. It destroys a
               | lot of illusions they have/had about establishment
               | politicians/media. Once you see through it - the cynical
               | opportunism, hypocrisy, double standards, and assumption
               | of power, abuse of groupthink - it's not something you
               | unsee. And the multi-modal pressure campaigns of that
               | cabal to try and force compliance cause a certain
               | personality type to push back harder rather than bend
               | over (especially if they have fu money). There's a list
               | of people in the public sphere like this in the last ten
               | years - Musk, Rogan, Brett Weinstein, Peterson, and I
               | dare say Trump was one too. Contrarian voices. Love 'em
               | or hate 'em because reasons, but I think their
               | individualist, critical, and contrarian voices are a
               | necessary feature rather than a bug.
               | 
               | Edit: that's not to say you need to treat these people as
               | heroes - I'm reflexively suspicious of that because human
               | nature will always be what it is, but I applaud their
               | ability to give the finger to convention, that's all.
        
         | zpeti wrote:
         | > Europe is absolutely at the cutting edge of technology.
         | 
         | Cutting edge of technology is industry creating or industry
         | changing technologies. The US has dominated these since the
         | 80s, but arguably even before that with railways, and after all
         | the atom bomb was invented by immigrants in the US.
         | 
         | The web, social media, smartphones.
         | 
         | And now space industries and generative AI.
         | 
         | And why is this?
         | 
         | Lots of network effects, but also places like the EU have it
         | completely backwards in terms of policy. Policy doesn't create
         | innovation. It might support it, but real innovation comes from
         | freedom and letting innovative people roam free. The US
         | government is doing it best to stop this but still hasn't
         | managed it luckily.
         | 
         | I just don't see how europe is at the cutting edge of anything,
         | any companies they lead their field are downstream of leading
         | US industries.
         | 
         | I don't know if it's possible to recreate what the US does.
         | Probably not. But what EU bureaucrats try and do basically
         | fails every time.
        
           | kranke155 wrote:
           | deepMind was only recently overtaken by OpenAI. And I'd chalk
           | that up as a maybe.
           | 
           | Europe does have a lot of midtier industrial companies that
           | do world-tier work. This includes Defense, Air transport
           | (Airbus), Automotive, Pharmaceutical (BioNTech RNA vaccine
           | coming from EU work) and I'm sure many other sectors.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | orbital-decay wrote:
         | _Everybody_ except SpaceX is struggling to make their launch
         | vehicles reusable, _including_ the US companies. And even
         | SpaceX hasn 't been able to get the full reusability, not for
         | the lack of trying. Which hints at that the reusability might
         | be a niche solution that worked for SpaceX in particular, and
         | _maybe_ for some other companies which have been particularly
         | lucky to be in a sweet spot and have a combination of factors.
         | Policy is one of them, sure - but not the only one.
         | 
         | I'd also like to remind that the reusability isn't limited to
         | the SpaceX style VTVL. There are also potentially promising
         | things like VTHL flyback boosters, but they are untested and
         | nobody is currently positioned to throw money away to test
         | smart solutions hypothesized in 60s, because the margins for
         | the failure are non-existent in the industry.
        
           | dotnet00 wrote:
           | To say that "SpaceX hasn't been able to get full reusability,
           | not for lack of trying" is a huge stretch when they've only
           | just gotten around to the first orbital flight tests of the
           | vehicle they designed for that purpose.
           | 
           | Similarly, the only other company that has even tried to make
           | a proven launch vehicle reusable is Rocketlab. So suggesting
           | that others are struggling, when they either haven't even
           | tried yet or are still working on getting to orbit, is
           | ridiculous.
           | 
           | On top of that, the argument that reusability doesn't work
           | for others for any reasons other than policy also doesn't
           | really fit. Launch prices for all other rockets are higher,
           | even the ones developed to better compete with F9 are only in
           | the ballpark of its launch price and completely uncompetitive
           | on launch cost and cadence.
        
             | orbital-decay wrote:
             | _> To say that  "SpaceX hasn't been able to get full
             | reusability, not for lack of trying" is a huge stretch when
             | they've only just gotten around to the first orbital flight
             | tests of the vehicle they designed for that purpose._
             | 
             | I was referring to the original plan for the Falcon 9 to be
             | fully reusable, which didn't work out for the second stage.
             | 
             |  _> others ... either haven 't even tried yet or are still
             | working on getting to orbit_
             | 
             | That's exactly my point, though. They either didn't figure
             | out how to make it work economically in their particular
             | case, or spent too many years building a working system
             | with a slow methodology. Sure, reusing the hardware
             | provides clear benefits and everybody understands that, but
             | only if you can pull it off and make the ends meet.
             | Evidently not everybody can do that, even in the US where
             | they have the same policy as others. So clearly the policy
             | is not the only differentiator.
             | 
             | For non-US companies this is especially true - besides the
             | good policy, you have to have the infra (supply chain
             | closeness and quick turnarounds, quick transportation
             | network which is a special pain point for Russian
             | cosmodromes and the issue for French Guiana or any
             | potential sea launch systems as well), good location (east-
             | facing shore close to the equator with good trajectory
             | options - Russia and Europe don't have that), access to the
             | markets (Russia is cut off and China doesn't have the
             | proper access to the global launch market). Russian
             | launchers in particular also have different cost breakdown
             | traditionally (expensive compact upper stages; that's why
             | the IRDT mission was trying to return the _upper_ stage in
             | 2001-2004 to explore the reusability possibility; AFAIR the
             | experiment partially succeeded, but they still weren 't
             | able to make the ends meet with that).
             | 
             | In fact, the only other country which has more or less
             | everything in place for the SpaceX-style floating platform
             | landing reusability (you can't compete in VTVL by only
             | having the landing pad flyback) is Japan, but they're too
             | heavily invested into "cheap" LH2 on the country level to
             | make a mental switch to the reusable systems.
        
         | dabluecaboose wrote:
         | > Europe is absolutely at the cutting edge of technology.
         | 
         | Unless that technology is launch vehicles, in which case
         | they'll whinge and whine and eventually contract someone else
         | to do it for them and pretend they have a competent space
         | program.
        
         | kranke155 wrote:
         | Why are you saying this as if the US public sector made a
         | reusable rocket? As far as I know, the US public sector
         | (mostly?) funded SLS.
        
           | jackmott42 wrote:
           | All rockets in the US have been built by private companies.
           | All of them have had some degree of public funding, even
           | Falcon9 and Starship.
        
             | simonh wrote:
             | That's true, but what matter for technology development is
             | who is specifying the design criteria. For most of the
             | history of US rocket development it's been NASA. They
             | designed the Saturn V, the Shuttle, SLS, and sub-contracted
             | out manufacturing to private industry. The contractors
             | certainly had a lot of input into the detailed design of
             | the rockets, but the overall criteria and design concept
             | were defined by NASA.
             | 
             | With COTS NASA switched to contracting out for launch
             | capacity without defining how it must be achieved. This
             | allowed SpaceX the freedom to engineer their rockets as
             | they saw fit.
        
       | nordsieck wrote:
       | It's interesting to see them say 2030s now. When the plans for
       | "Ariane Next" first came out, they were aiming for 2028. Sounds
       | like the program has already slipped quite a bit.
       | 
       | Ariane Group is going to be in for a rough time every year beyond
       | ~2026 that they delay. By then most of Starship (SpaceX), New
       | Glenn (Blue Origin), Terran R (Relativity), and Neutron (Rocket
       | Lab) should be operational - all of which will at least reuse the
       | 1st stage.
       | 
       | Of course, they'll be able to fall back on institutional payloads
       | to maintain a minimum level of funding. But that's not a great
       | place for the program to be in terms of funding. Or politics.
       | 
       | This whole situation is really tragic. The design of Ariane 6 was
       | finalized in 2016 - after SpaceX had successfully landed a Falcon
       | 9 for the first time. While I realize that that would have been
       | quite late in the design process for the rocket, it really shows
       | the weakness of Ariane Group when it comes to assessing the
       | competitive landscape and making difficult decisions.
       | 
       | To be fair, it is hard on the king to wear the crown for too
       | long. Europe and Russia had a long run; we'll see how well SpaceX
       | carries the burden.
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | > When the plans for "Ariane Next" first came out
         | 
         | Those were not plans, just one space agencies ideas.
         | 
         | > they were aiming for 2028
         | 
         | That was just political marketing, had nothing todo with
         | reality and was never even remotely possible.
         | 
         | > To be fair, it is hard on the king to wear the crown for too
         | long.
         | 
         | The were not really the king. For GEO missions yes, but for LEO
         | Soyuz was always cheaper. And yes ArianeGroup was launching
         | them, but its hardly their technical capabilities that made
         | that possible.
        
         | EveYoung wrote:
         | I think it's unrealistic to expect a multi-national government
         | funded organisation to offer a commodity service at a
         | competitive price. With all the conflicting national interests
         | and bureaucracy that come with this funding model, how should
         | they compete with much leaner, commercial organisations that
         | are only responsible to their shareholders? But does it really
         | matter? If the main objective of the Ariane Group is to offer
         | Europe independence by providing access to space, I think
         | that's worth a premium.
        
           | mytailorisrich wrote:
           | We should demand more and should not accept subpar
           | performance.
           | 
           | This is somewhat like Nokia vs Apple, only worse because of
           | the bureaucratic EU-wide red tape involved.
           | 
           | Yes, Europe should have its own space industry and be
           | independent. But we should not accept rubbish or "paying a
           | premium". We should demand more and aim at the top. Europe
           | deserves it and can achieve it.
           | 
           | SpaceX has rocked the boat and thay should be an opportunity
           | for drastic changes, especially in view of this fiasco.
        
           | TulliusCicero wrote:
           | > If the main objective of the Ariane Group is to offer
           | Europe independence by providing access to space, I think
           | that's worth a premium.
           | 
           | I mean in that case, wouldn't the superior option be having a
           | more cost competitive private launch provider in Europe? that
           | way you'd get both European independence _and_ lower prices.
           | Surely there 's a way to foster that situation, since that's
           | what the US has.
        
             | kranke155 wrote:
             | Having the EU work this out would be hard since pork barrel
             | is kind of part of the way the whole thing is done. You
             | need to have multiple production points, factories etc in
             | order for the EU to do anything like this.
             | 
             | I just don't see how they would do this.
        
               | brookst wrote:
               | Exactly this. The diversity of interests means EU will
               | never be as operationally efficient, and therefore as low
               | cost, as SpaceX.
               | 
               | EU's strength is that diversification. They should lean
               | into that and find a way (?) to benefit commercially. I
               | don't know quite what that is, but someone needs to come
               | up with something. Because the inefficiency is baked in.
        
           | nordsieck wrote:
           | > I think it's unrealistic to expect a multi-national
           | government funded organisation to offer a commodity service
           | at a competitive price.
           | 
           | Except that they used to. They certainly beat the pants off
           | of ULA (nee Boeing/Lockheed Martin) when it came to
           | competitive GEO/GTO launches.
           | 
           | > But does it really matter? If the main objective of the
           | Ariane Group is to offer Europe independence by providing
           | access to space, I think that's worth a premium.
           | 
           | It's a lot nicer to have a European rocket program that
           | happens to make lots of money on the commercial market so
           | that the member states basically don't have to fund it.
           | 
           | The current situation, where ArianeSpace doesn't win that
           | many contracts, so it has to be heavily subsidized by member
           | states is much more difficult. When it comes to politics,
           | there are always more hungry mouths than there is available
           | bread.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | > Except that they used to.
             | 
             | If everybody is a fool, and you are the best of them you
             | can be successful. But once the race really starts and its
             | not just US govenrment funded monopoly against European
             | government funded monopoly, its gone be difficult.
             | 
             | > The current situation
             | 
             | Ariane 5 had some commercial success but rocket development
             | was always funded by member states.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | > it's unrealistic to expect a multi-national government
           | funded organisation
           | 
           | Maybe then those organizations should admit that rather then
           | lie about it. ArianeGroup always justified Ariane 6 early on
           | by claiming with it they would be competitve with SpaceX.
           | 
           | Of course they thought about competitive with SpaceX in 2014,
           | not 2024 when Falcon 9 flies weekly and Starship is deep in
           | development.
           | 
           | > If the main objective of the Ariane Group is to offer
           | Europe independence by providing access to space, I think
           | that's worth a premium.
           | 
           | Maybe then they should have had a clear strategy around
           | achieving this goal effectively rather then deluding
           | themselves.
           | 
           | Europe having Ariane 6 and Vega rocket for example make no
           | sense. They could have one engine, for example Merlin
           | 'European Version' and use it as the only engine one all
           | their rockets.
           | 
           | However they have an incredibly complex bespoke first stage
           | engine, and complex bespoke second stage engine. And lots of
           | different solid rockets and so on.
           | 
           | If they had planned for making the most expensive possible
           | thing to achieve independence they certainly managed it.
        
             | b3orn wrote:
             | > Europe having Ariane 6 and Vega rocket for example make
             | no sense. They could have one engine...
             | 
             | It absolutely makes sense, Vega is basically an Ariane 5
             | solid rocket booster that was turned into an actual rocket,
             | both are/were made by Avio who now make the Ariane 6
             | boosters.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | They should've skipped Ariane 6 and do Ariane 5ME instead
               | and make the next vehicle a reusable one. Ariane 6
               | doesn't really buy them anything more than Ariane 5ME,
               | just buys more risk and more development cost (this
               | latter thing may actually have been the unstated INTENT
               | of some stakeholders...).
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | And yet if you actually go and look at the cost of the
               | Vega series of rockets its very expensive. Just using the
               | same expensive stuff multiple times doesn't make it a
               | good policy.
               | 
               | And then you keep reading and realize that Vega is not
               | just a solid booster, but a 4 stage rocket.
        
         | dotnet00 wrote:
         | It's worth remembering that when F9 had successfully
         | demonstrated reusability, they were still running from reality
         | and arguing that reusability wasn't worth pursuing. Kind of
         | like with ULA, they aren't merely bad at assessing the
         | competitive landscape, they actively blind themselves to it.
        
           | nordsieck wrote:
           | That's certainly what they were saying to the press. It's
           | hard to know to what degree they actually believed the things
           | they were saying.
           | 
           | Although, if actions speak louder than words, choosing to go
           | ahead with Ariane 6 is pretty strong confirmation.
        
             | dotnet00 wrote:
             | I think I would agree that they might've been doing
             | something else internally if they were simply saying that
             | F9 wasn't effective to reuse (like ULA had said at one
             | point).
             | 
             | But they had been arguing that it wasn't worth pursuing for
             | themselves, arguing that they didn't need to launch that
             | often. That, to me, comes off as a bit more honest since
             | they're not really saying anything positive about
             | themselves.
        
         | InTheArena wrote:
         | I don't have much faith in anything beyond Starship and New
         | Glenn. I've been hearing things at Rocket Lab are a mess right
         | now, and relativity and rocket lab basically both are pivoting
         | because SpaceX has made their original launch plans moot.
         | 
         | China will in the next 1-3 years launch a reusable rocket. Bold
         | prediction, but their combination of massive money, engineering
         | howto and shameless industrial theft makes it a no-brainer.
         | 
         | In terms of other launchers, I can see whoever buys ULA
         | launching something reusable in the next decade, as well as
         | ariane space.
        
         | BitwiseFool wrote:
         | Admittedly I don't know much about the economics of rocketry,
         | but the Ariane 6 doesn't seem much different from the Ariane 5
         | and I can't imagine it actually brings much to the table in
         | terms of performance or cost savings, especially in light of
         | how involved the development of it was.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | This is true, read my top level post for more information.
           | 
           | The Ariane 6 is basically an evolved version of what was the
           | Ariane 5 ME. Many of the things that are now Ariane 6 were
           | developed for Ariane 5 upgrades.
           | 
           | The new upper and lower stage engines are both just upgraded
           | Ariane 5 engines.
           | 
           | However they realized they could never compete with the
           | Ariane 5 core against Falcon 9 (in 2014) they changed some
           | political design processes and made the rockets more
           | flexible.
           | 
           | The most relevant difference between Ariane 5 and Ariane 6 is
           | that Ariane 5 always had to huge solid boosters, while the
           | Ariane 6 has 2 or 4 depending on the mission.
           | 
           | That makes is possible for the Ariane 6 with 2 boosters to be
           | in the competition for LEO missions. Something Ariane 5
           | wouldn't have been able to do.
           | 
           | But you are right, the 5 billion $ it cost to develop Ariane
           | 6 will required it to fly for decades to make it worth doing
           | compared to Ariane 5 ME.
        
           | nordsieck wrote:
           | > the Ariane 6 doesn't seem much different from the Ariane 5
           | and I can't imagine it actually brings much to the table in
           | terms of performance or cost savings, especially in light of
           | how involved the development of it was.
           | 
           | My understanding is that Ariane 6 was explicitly designed to
           | reduce production costs compared to Ariane 5, in large part
           | due to competitive pressure from SpaceX.
           | 
           | > With the new Ariane 6 slated to enter service in 2020,
           | ArianeGroup promises to cut per-kilogram launch cost by 40 to
           | 50 percent compared to Ariane 5.
           | 
           | https://spacenews.com/arianegroup-cfo-pierre-godart-on-
           | arian... (2017)
           | 
           | I guess, we'll see if they achieve that goal. Although rocket
           | pricing is notoriously opaque.
        
           | grecy wrote:
           | That's just it, for decades the "new" version of a rocket
           | only had very small incremental changes and didn't raise the
           | bar much at all. That's how commercial aerospace has worked
           | for a very long time.
           | 
           | Much like the Toyota Camry which has been the best selling
           | sedan in the US _every single year since 2000_.[1] It gets a
           | slight incremental change each year, but no ground-breaking
           | changes or utterly re-thinking what a car is.
           | 
           | Guess what sedan is now out-selling all other sedans? [2]
           | 
           | (Hint: not the one that has been getting incremental updates
           | since well before 2000)
           | 
           | [1] https://alansfactoryoutlet.com/the-best-selling-car-
           | model-ev...
           | 
           | [2] https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-
           | cars...
        
             | TulliusCicero wrote:
             | > (Hint: not the one that has been getting incremental
             | updates since well before 2000)
             | 
             | According to your article that's exactly what it is.
             | 
             | Did you mean to link something else?
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | jorvi wrote:
             | That's a pretty disingenuous comparison. It's like taking a
             | single Android manufacturer's sales, putting it up against
             | the iPhone and saying "look how hard the iPhones outsell
             | it!".
             | 
             | Once we stack all the non-Tesla sedans together, it paints
             | a much different picture probably.
             | 
             | And that's not mentioning that companies get big subsidies
             | for electrification, and Tesla purchases themselves get
             | credits on top of that (although I am unfamiliar if they
             | stack).
             | 
             | I think Teslas are pretty great and Tesla as a company
             | likely pushed electrification ahead by a decade or so, but
             | people seriously need to stop drinking the kool-aid.
        
               | mensetmanusman wrote:
               | ICEs probably have larger subsidies if we look at the
               | entire life cycle, externalized healthcare costs, fissile
               | fuel infrastructure, etc.
        
             | zardo wrote:
             | > Guess what sedan is now out-selling all other sedans? [2]
             | 
             | Have they changed the article? It's the Toyota Camry. The
             | better selling vehicles are trucks and SUV/CUVs.
        
               | kibwen wrote:
               | The article even says "We think hell will freeze over
               | before the Toyota Camry relinquishes its spot as the
               | bestselling non-SUV in the country. It maintained its
               | place with a 7 percent increase over last year."
        
         | Robotbeat wrote:
         | Don't forget Firefly's MLV/Antares300 (F9 style, kerolox
         | reusable first stage), and Stoke's full RLV (smaller, mere
         | medium class a bit more payload than Vega/Vega-C, but still
         | potentially important). These companies have hardware in
         | testing now as well.
        
           | antoniuschan99 wrote:
           | Stoke has the most interesting design right now! But
           | extremely early stage too
        
       | mathverse wrote:
       | Europe is failing because it's not a single entity. It's a loose
       | cooperation between many countries.
       | 
       | Insane amount of talent is wasted because of "so called" european
       | language and cultural racism.
       | 
       | Companies are still "national" instead of european and talent is
       | not appreciated. Taxes are sky high and so is national, cultural
       | racism. You think a brilliant bulgarian scientist is treated the
       | same by his French colleagues?
       | 
       | Until this changes and europeans will start treat their fellow
       | europeans fairly nothing will improve.
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | The US was 1 country and was beaten by Europe for 2 decades in
         | space.
         | 
         | The US is winning now because they hit the jackpot with Elon
         | Musk and SpaceX. Without SpaceX Europe would still be winning
         | against the US in terms of rockets.
         | 
         | Now granted, one can argue that Elon Musk and SpaceX wouldn't
         | have been possible in Europe, and that is partly true as well.
         | 
         | But US still got lucky that SpaceX happened right when they
         | wanted private supply of ISS.
        
         | GrigoriyMikh wrote:
         | I think that's the best explanation of the current situation in
         | Europe.
         | 
         | Just look at Germany, biggest economy in EU. It's treating it's
         | migrant workers as slaves. Feeding failing pension system from
         | them. Not giving any rights for innovation(you can't start
         | business without German national cofounder) or even any
         | motivation to innovate(high taxes, anti-success culture, strict
         | residence laws).
         | 
         | When you mention any problems with Germany to Germans, they're
         | so protective and unwilling to change that their only response
         | is "go back home if you don't like it here".
        
           | jimkoen wrote:
           | > you can't start business without German national cofounder
           | 
           | That's an outright lie, you need a Visa though if you're not
           | a citizen from a Schengen country.
           | 
           | > strict residence laws
           | 
           | Ever tried to get a Greencard? And if you have the financial
           | backing, up until the start of the Ukraine war there were
           | plenty of states with a golden visa program.
           | 
           | I think you're being too harsh on german and european
           | policymakers. I agree, the climate for startups is abysmal
           | and the room for improvement is huge, but in terms of being
           | inclusive EU is leading over the US.
        
             | GrigoriyMikh wrote:
             | > you need a Visa though if you're not a citizen from a
             | Schengen country
             | 
             | Ok, let me be clear. I have a temporary residence in
             | Germany. Before, i had a worker visa. I'm not allowed to
             | start my own business with temporary residence here. Only
             | if i have a German co-founder.
             | 
             | > but in terms of being inclusive EU is leading over the US
             | 
             | I'm not 100% sure about US. Although, i have 3 friends
             | there who don't experience problems that i have in Europe.
             | But in Germany, specifically, banking and government
             | bureaucracy machine became outright nationalistic. My bank
             | account have been blocked because of my nationality. I had
             | problems when i was changing my registration address,
             | because of my nationality. No i'm struggling with tax
             | office(changing my tax class) because of my
             | nationality(specifically, i have some papers from my
             | country).
             | 
             | And i heard similar complains about Spain and Poland(it's
             | actually refusing to give worker visas to Russians, even if
             | they already reside in EU). EU is pure nazi at this point.
             | But majority of people ignore it, because it's, apparently,
             | not nazi to be against Russians at this moment.
        
               | jimkoen wrote:
               | > Ok, let me be clear. I have a temporary residence in
               | Germany. Before, i had a worker visa. I'm not allowed to
               | start my own business with temporary residence here. Only
               | if i have a German co-founder.
               | 
               | https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/visa-
               | service/buergerservi...
               | 
               | Not seeing any point here that forces you to have a
               | german cofounder. It honestly sounds like you're
               | experiencing difficulties working as a freelancer on a
               | temporary residence permit, which I think is the case all
               | around the world. I'd be glad for US natives to chime in,
               | but from what I've read it's similar there.
               | 
               | From the remainder of your comment I take that you're
               | russian/belarussian? If you have a permanent residence
               | you're free to give up your citizenship, but yeah, it's
               | not in the best interest for western states to make
               | living amenable for you, due to state security. I'm
               | pretty sure that regardless of my oppinion, you'd face
               | similar difficulties in the US and elsewhere.
               | 
               | If germany is so hostile, why not migrate?
        
           | TulliusCicero wrote:
           | > When you mention any problems with Germany to Germans,
           | they're so protective and unwilling to change that their only
           | response is "go back home if you don't like it here".
           | 
           | Lived in Germany for five years, 100% agree with this. The
           | Germany Defense Squad is very real.
           | 
           | Germans are way pricklier about criticism of their country
           | compared to Americans, which surprised me somewhat, given
           | Americans' reputation for superpatriotism.
           | 
           | That's not to say you won't ever see the same kind response
           | from some Americans (especially those further right), but
           | what surprised me is that even centrist or center-left
           | Germans of the kind you'll see on Reddit were so defensive,
           | while centrist and center-left Americans are practically
           | lashing themselves with a cat o' nine tails over how dumb the
           | US is on many issues, and heartily agreeing with foreigners
           | on criticism.
        
         | fathyb wrote:
         | I want Europe to succeed and that's why I'm staying here, but I
         | have to agree that the racism situation in France is really
         | bad. It's the main reason I won't work for a company here.
        
           | bequanna wrote:
           | It is racism or just the French acting how most view them:
           | unfriendly, unhelpful, dismissive?
        
             | fathyb wrote:
             | I was born and raised here, I don't think it's cultural
             | differences.
        
             | throwaway40506 wrote:
             | If they act like that only to certain ethnicities, then
             | that's called racism.
        
           | sofixa wrote:
           | Could you expand on what you mean the "racism situation in
           | France"? The cheap populism politicians or something else?
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | fathyb wrote:
             | It wasn't something subtle with room for interpretation,
             | but outwards intolerance (not just racism) from the people
             | themselves. It's generally passed off as a joke (ie. saying
             | don't blow it up or don't steal anything jokingly to a
             | muslim), but repeated multiple times a week. It doesn't
             | seem to be specific to one region or industry.
             | 
             | The French word to describe the culture I was exposed to at
             | work would be "beauf". What kind of talented person would
             | take a pay cut to work in such an environment?
        
         | el_mocambo wrote:
         | Why on earth would Europe be "a single entity" ?! The more you
         | are forcing it to be (like pretty much a Soviet
         | administration), the less it is working...
         | 
         | All the "European success stories" are things that were created
         | by what you call "loose cooperation between many countries",
         | like Airbus, which is indeed the way to go.
        
         | sofixa wrote:
         | > You think a brilliant bulgarian scientist is treated the same
         | by his French colleagues?
         | 
         | As a Bulgarian who lives and works in France, yes. Ffs multiple
         | very high profile French authors, thinkers, theatre directors
         | are originally Bulgarian (Tzvetan Todorov, Galin Stoev come to
         | mind, there's also a lady whose name I can't recall) so even in
         | _very_ conservative areas they 're accepted, let alone in
         | scientific areas.
        
           | mafribe wrote:
           | > _lady whose name I can 't recall_
           | 
           | Julia Kristeva? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Kristeva
        
           | throwaway40506 wrote:
           | As a person from another Eastern EU country who worked in
           | German and French corporations, _absolutely no_. The people
           | at my current US employer treat me very, very differently. I
           | 'm never going back.
           | 
           | Even just the casual dismissal of my attempts to ask to speak
           | a common language (English) - them switching to German/French
           | whenever there was at least one other speaker of the language
           | - even though the firms declared the working language is
           | English...
           | 
           | Where I live if a person who doesn't speak our language comes
           | into the room we all switch to English so the person can feel
           | welcome.
           | 
           | Stuff like credit cards issued in my country simply not
           | working and them saying things like "yeah well we don't trust
           | these eastern banks" with the typical "zomg another poor
           | schmuck"-look...
        
             | sofixa wrote:
             | > Stuff like credit cards issued in my country simply not
             | working and them saying things like "yeah well we don't
             | trust these eastern banks" with the typical "zomg another
             | poor schmuck"-look...
             | 
             | That sounds like Germany and their obsolete banking system.
             | No idea how things are there, but in France that hasn't
             | been anything resembling my experience. Yeah I get the
             | occasional "I detected a small accent there, where are you
             | from? Oh cool, you speak very good French!" which doesn't
             | bother me, but that's pretty much it. And for what it's
             | worth, some Bulgarian banks are shit and don't work with
             | French bank cards for whatever reason (naming and shaming:
             | Unicredit Bulbank flat out told me they don't work with
             | "some German banks" when my French card was not working on
             | a POS terminal from them).
             | 
             | > Even just the casual dismissal of my attempts to ask to
             | speak a common language (English) - them switching to
             | German/French whenever there was at least one other speaker
             | of the language - even though the firms declared the
             | working language is English...
             | 
             | > Where I live if a person who doesn't speak our language
             | comes into the room we all switch to English so the person
             | can feel welcome.
             | 
             | Yep, French people have that bad habit. It's mostly out of
             | shame in my view though - their English is usually not
             | perfect, and they don't feel comfortable expressing
             | themselves in it, running back to their comfort zone at any
             | opportunity. It's shitty towards people who don't speak
             | their language.
        
               | Guillaume86 wrote:
               | About the french refusing to speak english, I think
               | there's also some kind of language superiority complex
               | (and I say that as a native french speaker).
               | 
               | Even online in english spaces (big subreddits for
               | example), I see french people switching back to french in
               | the middle of a thread if they recognize each other,
               | really rude IMO.
        
       | panick21_ wrote:
       | Anybody who is watching this industry knew this. Ariane 6 is
       | really just a slight upgrade over Ariane 5. The Ariane 5 ME is
       | mostly what the parts that are now in Ariane 6 came from,
       | otherwise Ariane 6 would have taken much longer.
       | 
       | This was approved in 2014, and the rocket wont be really
       | operational until 2024. So 10 years for a really simply upgrade.
       | Some of the parts now on the Ariane 6 have been in development
       | for 20+ years.
       | 
       | Even if right now, Europe decided to do a huge new rocket
       | projects, it would be 10 years minimum. But this is not likely
       | going to happen. Many didn't even want to spend the money for
       | Ariane 6. An agreement on a real large reusable rocket is
       | politically not feasible anytime soon, an no country, not even
       | France is gone do it alone.
       | 
       | Of course a real reusable rocket is gone cost more the develop
       | then the Ariane 6, a slight upgrade over Ariane 5. Ariane 6 cost
       | 5 billion and that ignores a lot different costs for
       | infrastructure and development of sub-components over the last
       | decades.
       | 
       | So a decade is actually an incredibly optimistic prediction, 2
       | decades is more likely and that is far from certain.
       | 
       | And even if they do so, they will never have a large share of the
       | market. They will battle a whole host of other companies,
       | RocketLab, ULA, Relativity for things that SpaceX will be
       | excluded from (Amazon and so on).
        
         | kranke155 wrote:
         | Honestly as an European - this is not on the table of high
         | priorities right now. Let Musk figure out between F9 and
         | Starship how it's best to produce rockets for the next half
         | century, then copy and remake the same thing here.
         | 
         | The EU having independent access to space is a point of pride,
         | not a continental emergency.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | Ironically even the US launched mostly with Russian engines
           | for quite a while. And Arianespace was launching more russian
           | rockets then European ones.
        
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