[HN Gopher] Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues...
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       Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF
        
       Author : ra7
       Score  : 147 points
       Date   : 2023-05-04 13:10 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (blog.waymo.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (blog.waymo.com)
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | The Waymo approach has proven itself. Targeted testing, running
       | the driver in hard mode as much as possible, is better than the
       | Tesla approach. Tesla's plan was essentially "machine learning
       | underpants gnomes". Collect ten billion miles of data from guys
       | driving down 280 -> ??? -> profit. Didn't work and now Tesla is
       | recognized as being dead last in the game, behind dozens of no-
       | name Chinese players.
       | 
       | Now what I wonder is whether Waymo has a durable lead over
       | Cruise, or if Cruise succeeds alongside them.
        
         | sidibe wrote:
         | > Collect ten billion miles of data from guys driving down 280
         | -> ??? -> profit.
         | 
         | It's actually
         | 
         | Profit -> Collect ten billion miles of data from guys driving
         | down 280 -> ???
        
           | jeremyjh wrote:
           | Yes why build a technology when you can sell just the promise
           | of that technology to your stans.
        
         | ilaksh wrote:
         | I have always been a huge proponent of Waymo and obviously
         | Tesla doesn't have something comparable to them now.
         | 
         | But if you look at videos of recorded Tesla autopilot drives on
         | Youtube you will see a huge amount of success in terms of
         | getting people to their destination without crashing or killing
         | anyone. And there is constant gradual improvement.
         | 
         | If Tesla can get another 2-3% improvement, they may actually be
         | able to launch a robotaxi service. The trick will probably be
         | that you need to have a driver's license and sit in the front
         | seat at first. But after X months they will probably allow
         | sitting in the back, especially for certain vetted trip
         | regions.
        
           | danans wrote:
           | > If Tesla can get another 2-3% improvement, they may
           | actually be able to launch a robotaxi service.
           | 
           | 2-3% improvement in what metric exactly? Disengagement rate?
           | Tesla has a long way to go there in anything but highway
           | driving.[1]
           | 
           | YouTube videos are not proof of the safety of an autonomous
           | vehicle. Tesla autopilot is currently very optimistically at
           | level 2.5. 2-3%, even across all metrics won't get them to
           | level 3, much less level 5.
           | 
           | I don't blame the people working in their self-driving
           | program. The expectations that have been placed upon them are
           | unreasonable given the constraints on equipment cost and
           | aesthetic design.
           | 
           | 1. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169941128097800
        
           | ok_dad wrote:
           | > The trick will probably be that you need to have a driver's
           | license and sit in the front seat at first
           | 
           | Rental cars? Lame.
        
         | xnx wrote:
         | Not only that. Tesla thought they could do it (better!) with an
         | inferior sensor suite.
        
         | hnburnsy wrote:
         | The baby steps makes sense, but you gotta admit Phoenix has to
         | be thr easiest metro area to test with: Little inclement
         | weather, little terrain change, newer infrastructure, streets
         | mostly laid out in an east-west, north-south grid with
         | consistent naming and numbering.
        
           | paxys wrote:
           | Waymo and Cruise have also been operating in San Francisco
           | for a while, which is quite the opposite.
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | Most of Waymo's hours are in simulation anyway, and that
             | can be as hard as they want it to be. Waymo's meatspace
             | test track is also nothing but edge cases.
             | 
             | I understand that Tesla also learns in simulation.
        
       | austinkhale wrote:
       | I live inside the original area in Phoenix where they did their
       | training. I have to give kudos where it's due. I originally
       | _hated_ their cars constantly driving around our neighborhood,
       | but I was persuaded to try one a few weeks back. It completely
       | changed my mind. They are now my favorite way to get around. I am
       | a very happy, frequent customer and hope they keep adding
       | coverage and more cars. This is absolutely the future I want to
       | live in.
        
         | icey wrote:
         | Same here (downtown Phoenix area) -- the driverless Waymos have
         | been awesome. Occasionally they get confused but it seems
         | pretty rare. They're better than a lot of the other drivers on
         | the road out here.
         | 
         | I'm mostly excited that they upped the allowed passenger count
         | from 3 to 4. Usually we take a car if we're going out to dinner
         | with friends but the 3 passenger limit made taking one of these
         | a pain in the ass or impossible.
        
           | drusepth wrote:
           | Does the fourth passenger sit in the "driver's" seat, or is
           | it a three-packed-in-the-back kind of situation?
           | 
           | Never seen a self-driving-car in person, but I assume it's
           | the standard 4-seater sedan layout, right?
        
             | ilaksh wrote:
             | They are vans.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _They are vans_
               | 
               | I was in a Jaguar. The one they show on their site [1].
               | 
               | [1] https://waymo.com/phx/
        
               | eep_social wrote:
               | They were vans:
               | https://support.google.com/waymo/answer/13559409?hl=en
        
             | icey wrote:
             | I haven't taken one since they announced the change (I'm in
             | a part of Phoenix that's pretty walkable), but I think it
             | will be 3 in the rear bench and one in the passenger seat.
             | They've been pretty clear that they don't want people
             | sitting in the driver's seat, and I'm guessing that will
             | continue to be the case with this change.
        
           | dangus wrote:
           | It blows my mind that someone living downtown in a city the
           | size of Phoenix (relatively large) needs to use a car at all.
           | It's really a shameful failure of urban planning.
        
             | icey wrote:
             | I drive a couple of times a month... It's not the most
             | walkable city but the downtown area is fairly walkable
        
             | sib wrote:
             | Phoenix is like LA without the positives
        
             | abecedarius wrote:
             | Is a 20th-century mass transit system actually preferable
             | to robocars once the technology is mature? My guess is it's
             | the cities like Austin, planning new transit systems
             | without designing for synergies with robocars, who are
             | failing at urban planning.
        
               | dymk wrote:
               | Good public mass transit is absolutely superior. Waymo
               | cars don't solve traffic, it only partly solves parking
               | and paying a human.
               | 
               | Having (on average) a single person take up 40 square
               | feet of space on the road for travel is horribly
               | inefficient. You do a few orders of magnitude better with
               | a full train car or bus.
        
               | wolfram74 wrote:
               | From an energetics perspective it's incredibly hard to
               | beat walking, biking or rails. If your occupancy on the
               | car is reliably greater than 1, that is an improvement
               | over single occupancy cars, but those boxes are just huge
               | compared to a bicycle.
        
             | umanwizard wrote:
             | You're right, but it's a bit of a cherry-picked example.
             | Phoenix is probably the most car-required major city in the
             | world.
        
               | 0zemp2c wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
         | dopamean wrote:
         | Why did you hate them at first? What about the experience of
         | using the service changed your opinion?
        
           | austinkhale wrote:
           | > Why did you hate them at first?
           | 
           | I walk my dogs twice a day and the cars are constantly
           | driving by with their array of sensors. Made me feel like I
           | was being constantly filmed and recorded... which as I
           | understand them to work I certainly was/am. Outside of that,
           | I resented being involuntarily part of a science experiment
           | that is objectively pretty dangerous all things considered.
           | For example, I would never cross the street when one was
           | coming down the road. I didn't trust them.
           | 
           | > What about the experience of using the service changed your
           | opinion?
           | 
           | The UX is really incredible. The car handled driving very,
           | very well. Much better/safer than most Uber/Lyft's I've been
           | in. Made me realize how freeing this technology will be for
           | those that don't have the ability to drive. If you don't have
           | a car / don't have the ability to drive in Phoenix, you're
           | going to have a bad time. Walkability here is typically very
           | poor.
        
             | lotsoweiners wrote:
             | Yeah I hope Waymo expands soon out to Mesa/Gilbert area
             | where I am. My wife has never driven in the 20 years we've
             | been together. Fortunately we live within a 5-10 minute
             | walk of an intersection with multiple grocery stores, lots
             | of restaurants and medical offices but it would be nice for
             | her to be able to go beyond that bubble without my help.
             | She feels bad about using Uber for 2 mile drives (even
             | though she tips well) but wouldn't feel bad about using a
             | self driving for those purposes.
        
             | dilap wrote:
             | Yeah, as a skateboarder in SF a few years ago, the
             | driverless cars for testing were already way more
             | predictable and generally chill than the human Uber
             | drivers, who would do all kinds of crazy, erratic things.
             | 
             | In an ideal world, we'd have physical separation for
             | peds/bikes/skateboards/etc and motorized vehicles, but if
             | we have to share, I'd much rather share with AI than
             | humans.
             | 
             | (That's my pedestrian perspective. As a driver, I love
             | driving and would hate to lose the right. But honestly I
             | think the writing is on the wall, especially in dense urban
             | environments.)
        
             | sgtnoodle wrote:
             | Regarding the risk of stepping out in front of a Waymo
             | vehicle, I personally wouldn't be too concerned about it as
             | long as there's adequate stopping distance to begin with.
             | You're most definitely being picked up by at least a few
             | different sensors, even from hundreds of ft away. If the
             | car is able to correctly categorize you as a pedestrian,
             | it's constantly re-assessing the probability of you
             | stepping into its path based on multiple visual cues,
             | adjusting its behavior accordingly. If the car isn't able
             | to categorize you, it's still seeing you as a large blob
             | that isn't in its static world map, so it's going to
             | aggressively stop out of caution rather than try driving
             | through you.
             | 
             | The reliance on a static world map is a very big safety
             | feature in my opinion. I wouldn't be as confident stepping
             | into the path of a Tesla.
        
         | kccqzy wrote:
         | For those of us not located in areas where Waymo is available,
         | do you mind elaborating on why this is your favorite way to get
         | around? As compared to Uber, Lyft, etc.
        
           | stingrae wrote:
           | For me in SF using cruise, I find them to be much safer and
           | smoother drivers than Uber/Lyfts. I don't get car sick and I
           | don't have to worry for my safety.
        
           | ra7 wrote:
           | I've only taken a couple of Waymo rides when I went to
           | Phoenix. I would take them over Uber/Lyft any day, if Waymo
           | offered rides in my city because:
           | 
           | * They are very safe and you're not at the mercy of the
           | Uber/Lyft driver's driving skills.
           | 
           | * Their cars are pretty good (Jaguar I-Pace fleet) and
           | generally very clean. You know what you're getting every
           | time.
           | 
           | * You don't have to interact with a driver.
           | 
           | * No tipping.
        
           | austinkhale wrote:
           | - The cars are very safe, very conservative drivers
           | 
           | - The interiors are nice, well air conditioned and don't
           | smell
           | 
           | - You don't have to talk to a person, which I don't always
           | hate but have had some bad experiences. This just removes the
           | roll of the dice from the equation entirely.
           | 
           | - They are currently at par or cheaper with Uber/Lyft prices
           | and typically it's faster for the car to arrive
           | 
           | - You get to play your own music
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | Adding:
             | 
             | - they're cheap. $5/ride.
             | 
             | - they're fun. It's a self-driving car! That's cool! I
             | genuinely had fun every time I was taken around in one.
        
             | threeseed wrote:
             | > You don't have to talk to a person
             | 
             | My partner has been propositioned and harassed over a dozen
             | times by Uber drivers.
             | 
             | I think for many this is going to be a killer feature.
        
               | NewMountain wrote:
               | I had an Uber driver in upstate New York who was trying
               | to get me to agree or at least not disagree with the
               | superiority of the white "race". I had another driver in
               | Oakland California who would not relent until I
               | acknowledged God is real and I should be thankful for his
               | love. I felt massive cognitive dissonance afterwards
               | feeling both the requirement to report these drivers but
               | also massive guilt at the non-zero chance I was depriving
               | them of one if not the last potential for work available
               | to them. I decided not to report either but still reflect
               | on whether that was a good choice or not.
               | 
               | Edit: to be totally clear: I did not agree in either
               | situation, but tried to gracefully divert or redirect
               | without escalating the situation. I didn't confront as,
               | frankly, I wasn't sure if the person would have responded
               | violently.
               | 
               | Uber is valuable, but I have kind of accepted the premise
               | that an Uber drive is just a public transit experience
               | with a customized destination. I should expect some
               | potentially weird and possibly unpleasant interactions as
               | part of the process.
               | 
               | I would 100% convert to Waymo only away from Uber just
               | based on those two experiences and dozens if not hundreds
               | of generally positive Uber experiences.
        
               | oh_sigh wrote:
               | I feel like once they start rolling out to more and more
               | locales, we will be hit with a spate of news stories like
               | "creepy guy wouldn't let my car drive away by standing in
               | front of it and leering at me"
        
               | xnx wrote:
               | Another benefit to Waymo vehicles: Full video recording
               | of all road interactions
        
               | drusepth wrote:
               | I think a lot of Lyft's early "we're like Uber, but
               | better for women!" marketing hints that this is a killer
               | feature that will absolutely drive growth. Especially now
               | that Lyft, too, is saturated to the point of equally-
               | risky drivers as Uber was/is.
        
             | trgn wrote:
             | > - The cars are very safe, very conservative drivers
             | 
             | So great to hear. Seeing videos of self-driving Tesla made
             | me fear for the worst.
        
               | icey wrote:
               | Here's one concrete example -- these cars almost never
               | take left hand turns. They'll route multiple right hand
               | turns to get somewhere, which makes it feel much less
               | risky when pulling onto a busy street from a
               | neighborhood, for example.
        
               | adrr wrote:
               | I wish my navigation supported that feature.
        
               | sebmellen wrote:
               | UPS style!
               | 
               | https://theconversation.com/why-ups-drivers-dont-turn-
               | left-a...
        
               | xnx wrote:
               | It's understandable, but very unfortunate that people
               | group Waymo, Cruise, and Tesla together. Waymo is at
               | least 5-10 years more advanced.
        
               | what_ever wrote:
               | Tbh, you shouldn't compare Tesla "AutoPilot" with these
               | full self driving options.
        
             | arecurrence wrote:
             | Does it prompt for a tip?
        
               | xnx wrote:
               | No
        
             | kpw94 wrote:
             | > The interiors are nice, well air conditioned and don't
             | smell
             | 
             | If they scale, that will become a problem:
             | 
             | - people puking in car
             | 
             | - people having sex in car
             | 
             | - people eating greasy fries in car
             | 
             | These happen in public transportation too (the sex one not
             | as often, but puking, eating smelly/gross food definitely),
             | but the big difference here is that users won't be
             | anonymous. The next waymo rider (or waymo staff if the car
             | stops by some inspection checkpoint between rides, or some
             | extra in-car sensors) will be able to report the incident,
             | which would flag repeating bad riders over time.
             | 
             | Overall the experience would be as good as a Uber today, as
             | like you said, no roll of the dice on the driver.
             | 
             | Another new problem specific to self driving and not seen
             | for public transportation: muggers driving a high speed
             | bike targeting isolated rides (they'll know how easy it is
             | to make the car stop, smash a window, and get the rider's
             | valuables). Basically the modern version of stagecoach
             | robberies.
             | 
             | One could argue these already happens in Europe on highways
             | with traffic jams, but I can see the muggers being more
             | active at night, since in addition to knowing the rider
             | can't try to escape, there's also less crowds around. It'll
             | be very dependants on regions : In Phoenix, I'd assume less
             | often as muggers won't know if the rider is carrying.
        
               | elbigbad wrote:
               | Geez this is some Grade-A FUD. Wow, I'm shocked.
        
         | petters wrote:
         | Can't believe you post on HN haven't tried them. I've been
         | thinking of a vacation to Phoenix just to try them and I live
         | in Europe :)
        
         | ajcp wrote:
         | I live downtown PHX (Roosevelt Row) and beyond riding in them I
         | MUCH prefer them driving around on the streets than actual
         | human drivers. There isn't a day goes by that I don't see
         | drivers make up 4-way stops, disregard the 4-way stops, flip a
         | youey in the middle of an intersection, etc. Contrast that to
         | the ever predictable Weymo, just quietly going about their
         | little self-driving existence.
         | 
         | Only problem I've seen with them is people don't realize that
         | just because you wave them through doesn't mean they will
         | proceed. If a Waymo sees a human on the corner that looks like
         | they will cross it will stop and wait until the heat-death of
         | the universe for them to cross.
        
           | jamiek88 wrote:
           | >they will cross it will stop and wait until the heat-death
           | of the universe for them to cross.
           | 
           | There's something adorable and HHGTG about that whole thing!
           | Reminds me of the robotic Star Liner that refused to take off
           | because of the peanuts hadn't been delivered thus its
           | checklist was incomplete. It had waited eons as its
           | passengers withered to corpses securely locked into the cabin
           | only stating that it was 'statistically likely a new
           | civilisation with peanut packages will arise on this planet'.
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | Lemon-scented handwipes, IIRC. Also Marvin spent ~millions
             | of years in the car park for the Restaurant at the End of
             | the Universe: ""The first ten-million years were the worst.
             | And the second ten-million - they were the worst too... The
             | third ten-million, I didn't enjoy at all. After that I went
             | into a bit of a decline. "
        
               | jamiek88 wrote:
               | I deleted the Marvin bit as I was worried I was rambling!
               | And yes it was the wipes, thanks for the correction!
        
             | ajcp wrote:
             | It's funny because for some reason they definitely do
             | _feel_ adorable and polite. I know we shouldn 't actively
             | anthropomorphize them, but it's just the feeling you get
             | when you see them go about their polite little way,
             | adorably plotting our downfall.
        
           | StrictDabbler wrote:
           | I have never tried to spell the phrase "flip a youey" before.
           | 
           | It might be the only word I use that I have never considered
           | spelling, so I am grateful that you included it your comment.
           | 
           | That said, I think you are wrong and it should be "uey",
           | "uie," "u-ie," or any other spelling that emphasizes the "u"
           | after which the term is named.
           | 
           | Also "I do not know the answer but I am sure you are wrong"
           | is the most internetish comment I've ever made, so that's two
           | striking experiences for me today.
        
         | dangus wrote:
         | A hopefully not-too-annoying reminder that this _isn't_ a
         | future that is sustainable or desirable to live in compared
         | with alternatives. It's really just better than the automotive
         | hellscape you are used to.
         | 
         | Phoenix is one of the most car-centric places to live in the
         | country. The only reason anyone needs a service like this is
         | because of the area's complete failure in urban planning.
         | 
         | Car-focused infrastructure is incredibly expensive per capita
         | compared to alternatives that prioritizing walking, cycling,
         | and public transit. It maximizes the amount of public utilities
         | (roads, sewers, etc) needed to serve one family.
         | 
         | One pair of train tracks can serve more human commuters than a
         | 12-lane highway. One bus can replace 30-40 cars, and neither
         | option needs fancy automation to be more cost and carbon
         | efficient than a robotaxi.
         | 
         | Waymo might band-aid the transit situation where you live but
         | it's doing nothing to address the fundamental problems with
         | large urban areas that require the use of personal vehicles.
        
           | elbigbad wrote:
           | What you're saying is probably true, but are you proposing
           | razing Phoenix and rebuilding it as a less car-focused place?
           | My sense is that that proposal wouldn't be too popular with
           | the people whose homes you're tearing down, nor would
           | necessarily the change in lifestyle they would be forced to
           | undergo (after I'm sure what would be decades of
           | rebuilding...).
        
         | conorh wrote:
         | I've gone over to Chandler to check them out - was also really
         | impressed, very smooth ride! I'm on the wrong side of I-10
         | unfortunately for getting regular rides from my house :/
        
         | stouset wrote:
         | I'll contrast this with Cruise, which are driving autonomously
         | in San Francisco.
         | 
         | I _hate_ them.
         | 
         | At least in the area I'm in (the Inner Sunset), they often
         | cruise around with no passengers while waiting for a request.
         | While doing so, they circle around idling at 10-15mph, pausing
         | for 30 seconds or more at stop signs. It's long enough where
         | just when you decide they've completely stopped and start to go
         | around, they "wake up" and start moving again. I have
         | personally been held up by _four separate Cruise vehicles_
         | acting this way within a ten block section of a single trip. It
         | is maddening, and there 's no safe or reasonable way to pass
         | them. I am generally quite patient and not particularly
         | affected by road rage, but I'll confess that I have spent
         | significant amounts of time fantasizing about an Office Space
         | printer scene styled destruction of these vehicles.
         | 
         | They need to either find places to pull over (ideal) or drive
         | like normal participants in traffic. Their current behavior
         | feels disruptively slow (cars end up backed up behind them) and
         | simultaneously unpredictable and confusing.
         | 
         | Worse, in other areas like Fell St., they drive exclusively in
         | the left hand lane while driving 15mph below the flow of
         | traffic. This actually causes _significantly_ extra traffic
         | during busier times as that street is often at or near
         | capacity. It also disrupts the design of that road, which has a
         | "green wave" of lights paced at about 30mph. Dramatically fewer
         | cars make it through any section of road when you have one car
         | driving 20mph that prompts everyone behind it to merge over to
         | the right, further impacting the throughput of other lanes.
         | 
         | I've also seen acute instances where they completely fail in
         | situations where humans would cooperate to solve an issue. In
         | one instance, a left-turning Muni bus was unable to complete
         | the turn due to a Cruise vehicle coming from that direction.
         | The Cruise vehicle had entered too far into the intersection
         | before stopping. There's paint on the intersection to indicate
         | that cars need to stop further back, and the Cruise had failed
         | to obey this. The bus was unable to back up due to traffic
         | behind it as well as visibility concerns, and the only real
         | solution was for the Cruise vehicle to move out of the way.
         | There was, however, _no way_ to instruct, plead with, or
         | otherwise convince the Cruise to move. It had no place in
         | particular to be, so it had no reason to decide to do anything
         | other than sit in place with infinite patience and wait for
         | everyone else to resolve the situation on its behalf. I watched
         | as this completely gridlocked a busy intersection for at least
         | five cycles of traffic lights before I got bored and left. I
         | have no idea how they finally unwedged the situation, but I
         | have to imagine it involved the bus driver getting out and
         | having the cars behind clear a space for it to back up and
         | allow the Cruise to complete its prime directive and pass.
         | 
         | Will these things get better? Sure. But right now, they are
         | _inexcusably_ bad drivers.
        
           | CPLX wrote:
           | Visualizing this situation happening in New York City, where
           | I live, is causing me to chuckle out loud.
           | 
           | It's hard not to envision the nearest construction vehicle
           | casually lifting the thing into the east river while a couple
           | NYPD guys laugh and take pics for their friends.
        
           | inferiorhuman wrote:
           | In one instance, a left-turning Muni bus was unable to
           | complete the turn due to       a Cruise vehicle coming from
           | that direction. The Cruise vehicle had entered too       far
           | into the intersection before stopping. There's paint on the
           | intersection to       indicate that cars need to stop further
           | back, and the Cruise had failed to obey       this.
           | 
           | Yeah that tracks. My last run in with Cruise was towards the
           | end of April when their vehicle (Gnome) decided to just wait
           | for the light to turn green... in the fucking crosswalk. This
           | was on Market, so it's not like it's a small, easy to miss
           | crosswalk.
        
             | stouset wrote:
             | In their defense, this is how human-operated vehicles act
             | on Market too. :)
        
               | inferiorhuman wrote:
               | Well, at least in this instance, the traditional vehicles
               | were all stopped in the appropriate place.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | Human vehicles also eventually fix problems by bending or
               | breaking the law if necessary.
        
               | lotsoweiners wrote:
               | I wonder what happens when a police officer tries to pull
               | one over.
        
               | inferiorhuman wrote:
               | Sure, to that end my favorite Cruise anecdote stems from
               | one of the Cruise humans forcing the car to make an
               | illegal left turn off of Mission a few years ago. Granted
               | Cruise's software still struggles with _legal_ left
               | turns, but still.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | A formative experience when I was learning to drive was
               | being pulled over to the right and watching a firetruck
               | pull behind a car stopped at a red light, siren blaring
               | and lights flashing, and eventually having to get on the
               | PA and tell the person to run the red light so they could
               | get through.
        
               | iudqnolq wrote:
               | That's a mistake by the fire truck. You aren't supposed
               | to preemptively run a red light to help them, they're
               | supposed to order you to do it right away if that's what
               | they want.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | MontyCarloHall wrote:
           | Isn't this because driving in a chaotic dense urban
           | environment like San Francisco is much harder than driving in
           | a giant suburb like Phoenix, which is among some of the most
           | car-optimized, easiest places to drive in the world.
        
           | 6gvONxR4sf7o wrote:
           | It seems to have recently gotten worse too. I'd never had a
           | bad experience driving near them until recently, and all of a
           | sudden every time I'm near one it's doing something
           | annoying/worrying.
        
             | stouset wrote:
             | As far as I can tell, what changed is they got rid of the
             | humans who were backing up the AI.
        
       | sgarrity wrote:
       | 10,000 trips / week is impressive. How many vehicles is this?
        
         | bushbaba wrote:
         | It's not really when you consider their burn rate. Say each of
         | those trips gross 10$. That's just 100k/week or $5.2
         | million/year. They'd need to likely 10,000x the ride volume to
         | even be close to profitability.
         | 
         | Uber does 7.64 billion rides per year. And they are not
         | profitable. The waymo cars sure ain't cheap, and scale of
         | operations will take a ton of cash. I wonder if waymo would
         | ever be profitable.
        
           | pizzalife wrote:
           | 1. It's impossible!
           | 
           | 2. It's possible but it's going to take forever
           | 
           | 3. It's real and happening now but it's dangerous
           | 
           | 4. It's not dangerous but it's annoying and blocking an
           | intersection sometimes
           | 
           | 5. It's not annoying but maybe they won't make money
           | 
           | we are here.
           | 
           | 6. It makes money but what about drivers
           | 
           | 7. It works in cities but what about suburbs
           | 
           | 8. It works in suburbs but what about rural areas
           | 
           | 9. This city in Turkmenistan is the last place on earth
           | without any autonomous vehicles and visiting is like getting
           | into a time machine
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | hopefully we get to 8 before waymo.com posts "An Update on
             | Waymo self-driving cars" and kills the project. That said,
             | this is one project that google really seems to have
             | invested for the long-term.
        
           | ketzo wrote:
           | Are we really evaluating a fleet of self-driving taxis on
           | profitability today, though?
           | 
           | If they're reliably doing 10,000 trips a week, I _promise
           | you_ they don 't need to worry about finding additional
           | investors.
           | 
           | "It's not really impressive to be doing 10,000 self-driving
           | taxi trips every week, because it's currently costing them
           | money" is a really, really wild take.
        
           | mtmickush wrote:
           | $5.2 million/year * 10,000 = $52 Billion / year if I'm
           | understanding you correctly. That seems on the high side to
           | me?
        
           | ijustlovemath wrote:
           | The difference is that the variable costs are much lower -
           | just recharging the EV + any other incidentals, as opposed to
           | having to pay a driver for every ride. That's why Uber never
           | became profitable, because they had to share the fare. Waymo
           | has higher up front costs, but if the cars are there, they
           | have much more profitable fares.
        
             | mechagodzilla wrote:
             | Maybe - Waymo has to recharge, clean and maintain a fleet
             | of cars that they own (and which are depreciating and
             | likely have no resale value, at least at the moment) -
             | Uber's drivers effectively use their wages to cover all of
             | those costs. I'm curious how Waymo is handling all of the
             | fleet maintenance, recharging, cleaning, etc, and how they
             | plan to scale that infrastructure.
             | 
             | I also wonder how Waymo plans to handle 'surges' - they
             | either have enough cars to handle peak demand, in which
             | case many are idle much of the time (and thus not making
             | money), or they build a fleet for the minimum/average, and
             | let more elastic competitors cover surges (or it's just
             | impossible to get one at rush hour anywhere). It really
             | seems like Uber/Lyft/etc ought to have a better business
             | model than this very centralized, capital-intensive
             | approach, and they're seemingly incapable of earning a
             | profit.
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | EVs need very little complicated maintenance. At this
               | point, batteries and electric motors are a rock-solid
               | technology.
               | 
               | So you're left with occasional minor maintenance for
               | mechanical issues like broken door handles or jammed
               | windows, and also with interior cleaning.
               | 
               | Even this can in future be minimized by building a taxi-
               | only car model. You can get rid of the steering wheel,
               | instrument cluster, central console, and all the
               | complicated plastic parts that go with all of this. You
               | can just replace everything with durable and easily
               | washable hard plastic, like seats on public transit.
               | 
               | Then make seats easily removable, and the interior
               | becomes straightforward to clean (heck, you can even
               | automate it).
        
               | minwcnt5 wrote:
               | I would bet on technology being able to handle peak
               | demand better than a non-tech solution. They could pre-
               | position vehicles better, incentivize pooling and transit
               | connections, etc. And just like Ubers they could
               | repurpose vehicles for other tasks (delivery, getting
               | cleaned) in low demand times. But I'm sure there will
               | still be surge pricing as you can't avoid demand spikes
               | completely.
        
               | kaibee wrote:
               | > Uber's drivers effectively use their wages to cover all
               | of those costs. I'm curious how Waymo is handling all of
               | the fleet maintenance, recharging, cleaning, etc, and how
               | they plan to scale that infrastructure.
               | 
               | Probably large regional hubs that cars will drive
               | themselves to for periodic maintenance (or get towed to
               | if the vehicle becomes disabled). Much more potential to
               | bring down total cost than the 'each driver does it
               | themselves' model.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _Uber does 7.64 billion rides per year. And they are not
           | profitable_
           | 
           | Uber is profitable in many cities before Uber Eats. An urban-
           | only strategy should be profitable for Waymo.
        
       | JumpCrisscross wrote:
       | Ha, they're finally expanding to the ASU Tempe campus. This
       | should be fun.
        
       | parshimers wrote:
       | I know they started testing a while back in LA, has anyone been
       | in one there? I haven't seen them around town like I have in SF.
        
         | sib wrote:
         | Oddly, I've seen a _lot_ of them in the past three days in LA,
         | sometimes multiple in an hour. Wonder how close they are
         | getting to launch?
        
         | boulos wrote:
         | LA is employee only for now (https://twitter.com/Waymo/status/1
         | 630326911648841730?cxt=HHw...). We often do smaller
         | announcements / updates only via Twitter, rather than a blog
         | post on blog.waymo.com.
        
           | jamiek88 wrote:
           | Please consider adding Mastodon!
        
       | RobinL wrote:
       | With all the hype about AI this year, does anyone know whether
       | it's translating in any meaningful sense into self driving? Can
       | they use transformers? If so, is there a step change in
       | performance? Has this already happened?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | hansoolo wrote:
       | As we Europeans are very far away from seeing any of those, I
       | have a question: how is the refuel / recharge handled? These are
       | EVs, right? Do they some how do that independently, too?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | lopkeny12ko wrote:
       | I can't for the life of me figure out how to sign up for the
       | waitlist in SF. The app just says "you'll receive updates about
       | San Francisco." Anyone been successful with this?
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | I believe that's what the app shows if you have already signed
         | up.
        
         | boulos wrote:
         | Sorry if that's unclear, if you set up the app, logged in, and
         | are located in San Francisco when doing so, I _think_ that 's
         | equivalent.
        
           | rahimnathwani wrote:
           | I see the same message on the app.
           | 
           | It's super unclear.
           | 
           | I think I signed up twice, a few months apart, because the
           | message in the app didn't give me confidence that I'd signed
           | up the first time.
           | 
           | Separately, the other day I turned right and there was a
           | Waymo car blocking the lane, about to pick up some
           | passengers. My car and the car behind me couldn't continue
           | along the road until the passengers had reached the car had
           | gotten in. They didn't seem like they were in a hurry.
           | 
           | Stopping a couple of extra car lengths away from the junction
           | (or, better still, not blocking in the lane at all) wouldn't
           | have paused other people's journeys.
        
       | boulos wrote:
       | For folks that are interested, the discussion at
       | /r/selfdrivingcars [1] picked out some of the salient numbers.
       | Brad Templeton also did his own write up at [2].
       | 
       | I mainly hope that people take away that this service exists now.
       | You can download the app and just use it in Phoenix. As mentioned
       | in the post, we're doing thousands of trips per week of _non-
       | employee_ rides. There are some great (and not so great!)
       | examples posted to  /r/selfdrivingcars from time to time if you
       | want to see them.
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/137hr3l/wa...
       | 
       | [2]
       | https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2023/05/04/waymo-...
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | Does each city have an independent wait list? Or once you're
         | in, you're in?
        
           | ra7 wrote:
           | Seems to be waitlist per city. But they only have a waitlist
           | in SF currently. Phoenix is fully open to the public and LA
           | is employee-only so far, so no waitlist open there yet.
        
           | boulos wrote:
           | We currently only operate the public service in Phoenix and
           | San Francisco. There isn't a wait list in Phoenix, anyone can
           | ride, but there is in San Francisco. So... technically
           | they're currently independent.
           | 
           | But our goal in any new area would be to focus on the people
           | that live there, because they would use the service
           | regularly. Of course, the broader goal is no waitlist
           | anywhere :).
        
         | AndrewDucker wrote:
         | How well does this scale? At some point do you just turn on the
         | tap, buy a million cars and cover the whole country, or are you
         | reliant on ongoing large amounts of support for the cars which
         | means that the costs for expansion make it currently non
         | viable?
        
         | isubkhankulov wrote:
         | Thanks for those links.
         | 
         | This claim in the Forbes article doesn't make sense to me: "
         | _It doesn't need the money_ but it does want to learn from how
         | riders interact with a service they are paying for. "
         | 
         | Alphabet has been pressured to show more tangible financial
         | results by activist shareholders[1]. Waymo has 2,500 employees.
         | Waymo's annual budget for headcount alone include stock based
         | compensation is over $1B by my estimate.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://www.ft.com/content/6daa5d29-8595-4630-a633-eb1f8b138...
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | Imagine believing that anyone at Alphabet gives a fuck what a
           | 5% shareholder wants.
        
             | rcme wrote:
             | Apparently someone does. Activist investors are the reason
             | for Google's layoffs.
        
         | mustacheemperor wrote:
         | I really hope that I can get access in San Francisco soon. The
         | closest grocery store to me in Bayview is a 30 minute walk
         | across one of SF's riskiest pedestrian intersections and my
         | neighborhood's only bus service is a corporate shuttle. Cruise
         | just announced coverage for the "entire city" but it won't
         | actually include my neighborhood. I've been well aware of Waymo
         | for a long time, and been on the waiting list for over a year
         | now! I've actually seen people getting in and out of Waymos
         | near my apartment, and my limited experiencing riding the
         | Cruise beta has me really excited to someday traverse SF in
         | self driving vehicles. Can't wait.
        
       | sprout20 wrote:
       | I've had access in SF for the past few months and have been
       | really impressed! The Waymo rides I've taken have been confident
       | + a bit conservative (e.g. driving at the speed limit when
       | traffic is flowing more quickly), but overall the team's done a
       | great job with the experience. It's free for now so I've been
       | using it regularly during commuting/rush hour and casual drives.
       | Some quick thoughts:
       | 
       | Advantages over Uber/Lyft:                 - Privacy - having the
       | car to yourself is nice!       - Safety - My friends who are
       | women have almost universally said they feel uncomfortable taking
       | Ubers/Lyfts at night and would prefer the Waymo       - Ride
       | matching happens almost instantly       - Estimated pickup times
       | are consistently accurate       - Trunk is open for use and the
       | car will prompt you to grab your items and open the trunk at the
       | end of a ride       - Extra legroom in backseat because there's
       | no driver       - No driver/car confusion - you can set your
       | initials to be displayed on top of the car at pickup
       | 
       | Parity with Uber/Lyft:                 - Drives surprisingly
       | confidently/well - can handle complex urban traffic, pedestrians,
       | cyclists without doing anything obviously "dumb"       - First-
       | class native app experience       - Rides are priced upfront
       | - Rides can be multi-stop
       | 
       | Disadvantages (today) vs Uber/Lyft:                 - Driving is
       | conservative - nothing above the speed limit       - Driving is
       | sometimes a little bit jerky (e.g. at stop signs, while inching
       | on a right turn at a red light)       - Routes can sometimes be
       | odd / longer (usually within 25% of the most direct route)
       | - Rarely (<5% rides), car will stop for pickup somewhere odd
       | (middle of lane when there's an available curb, right turn lane)
       | - No driver if you leave something behind (there's a support form
       | online, but I left my phone once and a good samaritan happened to
       | call using the emergency number)       - Pickup times can be
       | longer today than Uber/Lyft as they roll out more cars
       | 
       | Honestly, if they fix the occasional indirect routing and
       | eventually are able to let the cars flow at the same speed as
       | traffic, I'd pick the Waymo almost every time.
        
         | rahimnathwani wrote:
         | "Driving is sometimes a little bit jerky (e.g. at stop signs,
         | while inching on a right turn at a red light)"
         | 
         | Imagine if all (or even most!) SF drivers decided they would
         | come to a complete stop at each stop sign and at each red
         | light!
        
         | mustacheemperor wrote:
         | Did you get access from the public beta sign-up list, or some
         | other channel? I've been on the waitlist for over a year and
         | have seen people utilizing Waymo near my apartment, but
         | nothing's budged for me. I did get into the Cruise beta, and
         | that just made me positive Waymo will almost completely replace
         | other forms of car transit for me once it's available, but
         | Cruise is very limited.
        
         | tbruckner wrote:
         | How is pricing?
        
           | jamiek88 wrote:
           | It's free for now.
        
       | dmix wrote:
       | > including improved hand gesture detection
       | 
       | What does this mean? It can recognize pedestrians making hand
       | gestures?
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _It can recognize pedestrians making hand gestures?_
         | 
         | Someone said you could _hail_ them to a specific spot after
         | calling them, _e.g._ if you're in a crowd. (Never confirmed.)
         | Recognising a pedestrian waving it to go would also be helpful.
        
         | xnx wrote:
         | Gestures from flaggers routing traffic around construction, or
         | police around an accident for example.
        
       | alphabetting wrote:
       | > "we are now serving over 10 thousand trips per week to public
       | riders, not including employees. With this latest expansion, we
       | intend for those numbers to accelerate rapidly to 10 times that
       | scale by next summer"
       | 
       | they've been pretty cautious on predictions after the AV hype
       | boom and bust a couple years ago. 10x in a year is an ambitious
       | goal.
        
         | melling wrote:
         | 10,000 trips in electric vehicles.
         | 
         | Self-driving EV's in all major cities would be a big win for
         | the climate and the air quality.
        
           | xnx wrote:
           | And noise! I will rejoice when idiots are no longer allowed
           | to speed and operate clearly illegal (in terms of emissions
           | and noise) vehicles on public roads.
        
             | abawany wrote:
             | that and rolling coal - I see at least one per month in
             | texas.
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | Don't worry, the gov't is here to make sure you don't miss
             | out. Newer EVs and hybrids are required to make _noise_ at
             | <20mph. Never mind that a properly muffled ICEV is only
             | audible when completely stopped. My neighborhood is getting
             | louder as we all switch to EVs.
        
               | r00fus wrote:
               | I was worried about that back in 2018 when it was
               | announced but having heard hundreds of backup sounds
               | (luckily mine is silent as it's from before 2019), they
               | are all chill and mostly imperceptible.
        
           | majormajor wrote:
           | It's probably more of a mixed bag.
           | 
           | Self-driving car fleets probably increase suburbization in
           | the same way that trains created suburbs long ago.
           | 
           | Depending on how it breaks out, "more space per person at
           | similar total environmental impact" is a quality of life win
           | but not a climate-change-fighting one.
           | 
           | Pedestrian safety and other externalities are probably a big
           | win, still.
        
             | jccooper wrote:
             | I feel like the increase in suburbanization due to self-
             | driving cars is probably pretty small over person-driven
             | cars. Given the low building density that human-driven cars
             | create (read: parking lots) there's some hope that a large
             | change in car parking behavior would lead to lots of infill
             | development.
        
               | majormajor wrote:
               | If your commute is "sitting in an office doing email or
               | taking calls" instead of "having to babysit your car
               | through traffic" you're gonna see some significant
               | behavioral changes.
               | 
               | The parking lot point is interesting, I hadn't thought
               | about that.
               | 
               | But it's not obviously better to me: commuting behavior
               | is very time-of-day determined, and the cars are gonna
               | have to be somewhere in between rush hours. You don't
               | want them on the road, and you can probably shift around
               | to catch other sorts of predictable demand, but
               | environmentally you're gonna want to minimize the total
               | nubmer of miles driven without passengers.
               | 
               | EDIT: so in areas with less development and commmuters
               | are parking their cars in surface lots all day, yeah, you
               | don't need those surface lots for commuters + all the
               | other lots at retail, residential, etc all at once if the
               | cars are moving around to other uses during the day. But
               | in denser recent-development areas where office parks
               | predominantly have underground or garage parking it may
               | be harder to realize infill there.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | I don't know. I live in the exurbs anyway and just don't
               | go into the city much. But, if I had effectively a
               | personal driver and I could work in the car, the bar to a
               | 30-60 minute drive in for the evening would be a lot
               | lower for me.
        
           | iinnPP wrote:
           | I agree but also worry about the job loss and the inevitable
           | loss of freedoms that will inevitably be 'justifiable' when
           | automatic driving is the norm.
           | 
           | Basically, if the cost can be comparable to car ownership,
           | reducing resource use by making car buying of any kind far
           | more difficult. Which is admittedly entirely a thought
           | experiment. Though it is a thought experiment many authors
           | seem to arrive at.
           | 
           | Edit: I wish I could say I was surprised at the downvotes for
           | a comment that is pro-worker.
        
             | aidos wrote:
             | Which jobs are you thinking? Bus drivers? Taxis? Car
             | production? Which loss of freedom are you referring to?
             | 
             | I can't help thinking that the potential upside will far
             | out-way the cost.
             | 
             | London streets are littered with dormant vehicles. Most
             | just sit there taking up room and dominating the city. It
             | would be a whole other city if we could change that
             | dynamic.
        
               | genghisjahn wrote:
               | Truck drivers mainly. There are LOTS of truck drivers.
               | 
               | https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/m
               | ap-...
        
               | tyingq wrote:
               | If they get over-the-road trucking automated, that also
               | trickles down to many roadside workers...gas stations,
               | restaurants, motels, and so on. Then, some back office
               | functions associated with routing, driver compliance,
               | hiring drivers, etc. I'm sure there's more. It would be a
               | big adjustment.
        
               | iinnPP wrote:
               | Not just financial either. When more people are
               | perpetually online in an internet populated by an even
               | larger population of bots designed for engagement, what
               | happens?
               | 
               | Many of the jobs you are referring to are socially
               | fulfilling to some people. It's an escape from a poor
               | home situation or from an addiction.
        
               | iinnPP wrote:
               | I grew up in foster care. One of my guardians made a
               | living driving a taxi. The guy was an absolute wreck of a
               | human and I probably wouldn't break if he was crossing.
               | 
               | It was what he used to survive though, and surely not all
               | cab drivers would be the same.
               | 
               | My brother in law drove Uber when he was illegally canned
               | from his factory work and is the reason he got to eat.
               | 
               | There are options to solve problems that don't require a
               | change in the outcome you desire. Mainly something along
               | the lines of forcing the companies profiting from this to
               | pay a person a reasonable wage to act as the social
               | aspect that will be missing. So the job market can be
               | unaffected.
               | 
               | It's not just a cab job problem either. It's also not
               | about who I like or dislike or whether or not it impacts
               | me or not. I have never used a cab in my life and I
               | cannot drive and thus have no car taking up your street.
               | 
               | I do however see a worsening homeless crisis in my small-
               | ish Canadian city. I would rather see empty cars than
               | tortured souls.
        
               | theLiminator wrote:
               | > There are options to solve problems that don't require
               | a change in the outcome you desire. Mainly something
               | along the lines of forcing the companies profiting from
               | this to pay a person a reasonable wage to act as the
               | social aspect that will be missing. So the job market can
               | be unaffected.
               | 
               | Essentially removing most economic incentive to deploy
               | self-driving cars at all?
        
               | iinnPP wrote:
               | Market dominance would still allow for it to be
               | profitable.
               | 
               | Is money to goal or is it a better society? Less
               | pollution, less waste, more social interaction, and
               | increased safety. Less colored paper.
               | 
               | Surely the government has an interest in financially
               | incentivising this development. Especially given a
               | decrease in road wear and tear, lower climate impact and
               | surely any number of other benefits.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _money to goal or is it a better society_
               | 
               | More people taking cheaper trips in cleaner vehicles is a
               | better society in my book.
        
               | iinnPP wrote:
               | Absolutely. That is the today impact.
               | 
               | What about when it's Waymo One or Uber Zero. Support is
               | GPT7 Two.
               | 
               | No call center jobs, no driving jobs, less supporting
               | jobs, less money flow, more homelessness, more violence.
               | Decreasing compensation for the jobs remaining due to
               | increased competition.
               | 
               | Short term profits go brrr?
        
               | UncleEntity wrote:
               | > Mainly something along the lines of forcing the
               | companies profiting from this to pay a person a
               | reasonable wage to act as the social aspect that will be
               | missing.
               | 
               | Force them to hire someone to sit in a car all day and do
               | absolutely nothing?
        
               | iinnPP wrote:
               | act as the social aspect that will be missing.
               | 
               | To act as a local for a traveler.
               | 
               | To recommend locations
               | 
               | To do nothing but sit there and look at their device or
               | read
               | 
               | Or perhaps the answer is a tax on automation and everyone
               | can sit at home perpetually online.
               | 
               | Im not claiming to have answers to this rapidly
               | approaching problem. It's definitely a problem though.
               | Even if it doesn't impact myself whatsoever at this time.
               | 
               | What is your job? If it is gone tomorrow and your
               | education is useless, what will you do?
               | 
               | What about your family and friends?
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _act as the social aspect that will be missing_
               | 
               | Nobody I know wants this. I've had great Uber, Lyft and
               | taxi drivers. But they're far from the norm. I'd much
               | prefer to be able to play my own music, or take back-to-
               | back phone calls, or snore loudly.
               | 
               | If this is genuinely the service, there is booming
               | business in tour guiding.
        
           | SoftTalker wrote:
           | What is the power source for charging these EVs? In Phoenix,
           | I could imagine it might be solar but the cars probably want
           | to charge at night during low-demand times?
           | 
           | If it's utility electric, from what fuel source is it
           | generated?
        
             | theobromus wrote:
             | Waymo buys renewable energy for charging
             | https://blog.waymo.com/2023/03/paving-way-toward-fully-
             | elect...
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | Arizona is a nuclear and natural-gas state [1], with most
             | of the coal (No. 3) being retired in the coming years [2].
             | 
             | [1] https://www.eia.gov/state/print.php
             | 
             | [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_
             | in_Ar...
        
           | tedivm wrote:
           | Climate yes, but air quality not by as much as you'd think.
           | Multiple studies have come out showing that the weight of EVs
           | puts more pressure on tires and breaks, which in turn
           | increases the particles they dump in the air.
           | 
           | > As a result, total PM10 emissions from EVs were found to be
           | equal to those of modern ICEVs. PM2.5 emissions were only
           | 1-3% lower for EVs compared to modern ICEVs. Therefore, it
           | could be concluded that the increased popularity of electric
           | vehicles will likely not have a great effect on PM levels.
           | Non-exhaust emissions already account for over 90% of PM10
           | and 85% of PM2.5 emissions from traffic. These proportions
           | will continue to increase as exhaust standards improve and
           | average vehicle weight increases. Future policy should
           | consequently focus on setting standards for non-exhaust
           | emissions and encouraging weight reduction of all vehicles to
           | significantly reduce PM emissions from traffic.
           | 
           | As the quote mentioned, this can be improved. Lighter
           | batteries, better regenerative breaking, and improvements in
           | tire material would all help.
           | 
           | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13522.
           | ..
        
             | zizee wrote:
             | This is interesting/surprising and I would like to learn
             | more, but the linked study is truncated behind a Paywall.
        
             | dkjaudyeqooe wrote:
             | I wonder if it would make sense to program robotaxis to use
             | only regenerative braking, maybe with a more powerful
             | regenerative braking system, and using real brakes only for
             | emergencies.
        
               | magnuspaaske wrote:
               | That's how most electric cars are set up already
        
             | cyberax wrote:
             | > Climate yes, but air quality not by as much as you'd
             | think. Multiple studies have come out showing that the
             | weight of EVs puts more pressure on tires and breaks, which
             | in turn increases the particles they dump in the air.
             | 
             | This is total bullshit. EVs barely use frictional brakes at
             | all. My Tesla Model S from 2014 is still on the original
             | set of brakepads after nearly 200000 miles. Several EV car
             | models even have a problem with disks _rusting_ because the
             | frictional brakes are not used except when the car is
             | parked.
             | 
             | If anything, EVs will absolutely cut down on brake dust.
             | 
             | With tires, it's a bit more nuanced. Regular tires can
             | indeed wear a bit faster on an EV, especially if you are
             | addicted to high acceleration. But tire vendors are now
             | producing EV-optimized tires that are a bit more durable,
             | and it seems like the difference is pretty negligible.
             | 
             | Also, keep in mind that your bullshit study only looked at
             | weight. So it follows that buses and trucks (that have MUCH
             | more weight) will leave genocide and devastation in their
             | wake.
        
             | shiftpgdn wrote:
             | I feel like this is a nonsense study. They used a 2013
             | study that measured gas cars and then just extrapolated
             | that out based on weight for EVs and did nothing to account
             | for regenerative breaking, specialty EV tires, etc. Also
             | the numbers are from the Simons 2013 study seem to be
             | dubious as well.
             | 
             | Anyone who has been to Oslo understands EVs are a huge
             | benefit for urban air quality.
        
               | xnx wrote:
               | On top of that, the Waymo vehicles are much more
               | efficient drivers: no rapid acceleration, no hard
               | braking, lower top speed, etc.
        
             | r00fus wrote:
             | One thing that caught my eye is the study is simply
             | modeling the increased PM10 and PM2.5 based on hypothesised
             | influence of weight difference using gas and diesel cars
             | (from 2013) as a basis.
             | 
             | Obv. I haven't read anything but the summary but the core
             | assumption means it's an extrapolation and not measuring
             | actuals.
             | 
             | For example, while EVs accelerate faster, regen braking
             | massively reduces brake wear - the lack of mention of regen
             | in this extrapolative study seems a huge miss. Also EVs
             | typically don't have the same tire material - they use low
             | rolling resistance tires which do better on particulates.
        
             | chroma wrote:
             | I'm suspicious of that paper. The largest source of non-
             | exhaust emissions comes from brake pad wear[1] and EVs use
             | brakes far less than combustion vehicles. Also the amount
             | of particulate matter put into the air is highly dependent
             | on vehicle speed. Densely populated areas have more
             | traffic, which means cars drive slower and create less non-
             | exhaust pollution.
             | 
             | And it's no longer true that EVs are heavier than
             | comparable combustion vehicles. The Tesla Model 3 weighs
             | 3,550-4,070lbs. The BMW 3 Series weighs 3,200-4,330lbs,
             | though the lightest model is a two door convertible. While
             | combustion vehicles don't carry heavy batteries, they do
             | need exhaust systems, more complicated drivetrains, and
             | bigger cooling systems. Also, more and more combustion
             | vehicles are becoming hybrids to meet stricter emissions
             | standards. That means adding weight for batteries, an
             | electric motor, and a transmission that can handle both
             | propulsion sources.
             | 
             | 1. See figure 6 in this paper:
             | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/2/190
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | As I understand it a large component of the particulate
               | emissions from cars is resuspended road dust, so it
               | doesn't really matter than an EV or hybrid has little of
               | its own brake dust. The brake dust is already on the
               | ground.
        
             | magnuspaaske wrote:
             | This is the wrong way to think about it since there's
             | little that suggests AV-taxis also need to be larger than
             | the cars already on the road. When I'm renting a car or
             | taking a taxi I know exactly what my needs are and can
             | decide to not pay for luggage space if I don't need that
             | for instance. Further you can just put a smaller battery in
             | AV-taxis since you can optimise the charging schedule. And
             | lastly, when we've gotten rid of air pollution from
             | tailpipe emissions air pollution from tires would be the
             | next problem to fix and it intuitively seems that all
             | electric, digital cars could have their pollution reduced
             | via a software update.
             | 
             | And obviously the technology making these cars possible
             | also make self driving busses possible, which would allow
             | new ways for urban mobility.
        
           | inferiorhuman wrote:
           | Self-driving EV's in all major cities would be a big win for
           | the climate       and the air quality.
           | 
           | Counterpoint: no, they wouldn't. Moving towards self-driving
           | automobiles merely props up an inefficient mode of
           | transportation. Imagine sinking all that money that's being
           | blown on self-driving cars into pedestrian and bicycle
           | infrastructure. The problem with cars is cars, not drivers.
        
             | cyberax wrote:
             | Bike infrastructure is the ultimate boondoggle. It NEVER
             | pays for itself in the US, it literally has nothing but
             | negatives if you look at it objectively.
             | 
             | Bike lanes don't appreciable increase the percentage of
             | trips by bike, they dis-proportionally slow down car
             | traffic, and the bike commutes themselves are probably the
             | worst transit mode in the US.
             | 
             | Heck, bike lanes almost never even _replace_ the amount of
             | traffic that they displace.
             | 
             | All bike lanes do, is cater to a bike lobby that tries to
             | force their hobby on everybody else, at the expense of
             | practicality.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _Imagine sinking all that money that 's being blown on
             | self-driving cars into pedestrian and bicycle
             | infrastructure_
             | 
             | This does jack squat for getting across San Francisco or
             | from corner to corner of Phoenix.
        
               | inferiorhuman wrote:
               | You can already bike from one part of SF to another,
               | investment in bicycle infrastructure would make that
               | easier and safer. Or, you know, public transit.
               | Individual vehicles suffer from massive inefficiency
               | compared to nearly any other form of transportation -
               | look at Elon's fully autonomous tunnel.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | SF is not really a great bikeable city; almost any
               | location to any location involves hills, some of them
               | really significant. The streets are also not laid out in
               | a reasonable pattern in many locations.
               | 
               | Getting from outer sunset to market by bike daily isn't
               | really practical, especially during Weather.,
        
           | fshbbdssbbgdd wrote:
           | The "EV" part seems to be carrying the weight there, not the
           | self-driving. Self-driving might even make those problems
           | worse by decreasing the cost of driving.
           | 
           | It's like saying "self-driving cars and solving the nitrogen
           | fixation problem would be a big win for preventing famine."
        
           | tommoor wrote:
           | And pedestrian/cyclist safety
        
             | mertd wrote:
             | To be fair, human drivers don't do terribly well on that
             | front.
        
               | peter422 wrote:
               | The comment is saying these cars will improve
               | pedestrian/cyclist safety.
               | 
               | I can also attest to it. I've interacted as a pedestrian
               | and cyclist to many cruise and waymo cars and they've
               | been very, very cautious and careful.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Drivers do fine if the infrastructure is designed for
               | humans rather then for cars.
               | 
               | The reason so many people die in US cities is because of
               | policy, not because people can't drive inherently.
        
             | twoWhlsGud wrote:
             | Not to mention everyone else who is not driving a 9000 lb
             | Hummer - e.g. see how fear of being squished by a giant SUV
             | dominates the discussion here:
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35827974
        
       | danvoell wrote:
       | Is there any sort of road map for how they plan to roll this out
       | beyond the two cities?
        
         | boulos wrote:
         | We post updates on our blog or Twitter account from time to
         | time. There isn't an explicit, public roadmap of "On this date,
         | we will open in < CITY >", but we have announced LA [1] as our
         | next city for Waymo One (the name of the ride hailing service):
         | 
         | > Los Angeles will be Waymo's next ride-hailing city, joining
         | Phoenix and San Francisco as we expand to more locations.
         | 
         | Beyond the official _service_ , we also do testing in multiple
         | locations. For example, we announced that returning to Austin
         | for testing [2]. In that post, we mention other weather testing
         | we've done in Miami, NYC, and Bellevue, WA.
         | 
         | Beyond ride hailing, we have separate testing for Waymo Via
         | with our Class 8 trucks, that you might see in Arizona or
         | Texas.
         | 
         | [1] https://blog.waymo.com/2022/10/next-stop-for-waymo-one-
         | los-a...
         | 
         | [2] https://blog.waymo.com/2023/03/expanding-waymos-testing-
         | to-A...
        
           | hcazz wrote:
           | I understand it's interesting to announce accomplishments
           | (such as increased areas for testing), but as someone who
           | lives in West LA, it's slightly annoying to see multiple
           | announcements saying "testing is expanded, be on the
           | lookout!". I'm nearly at the point where I'm just ignoring
           | announcements for Los Angeles because the last two haven't
           | amounted to any changes for someone that lives here and wants
           | to use the service.
        
       | SanderNL wrote:
       | It's all smoke and mirrors.
       | 
       | There's surely someone driving it remotely or hidden under the
       | hood.
       | 
       | Self-driving is a hoax meant to distract us.
       | 
       | AI is snake oil, Dreyfus, hype train. Stochastic parrot.
       | Confabulations. Unredeemable and based on intellectual mistakes.
       | 
       | Stochastic.
       | 
       | Stochastic.. parr..
       | 
       | ...
       | 
       |  _fizzles out_
        
       | agnosticmantis wrote:
       | Really love what waymo have been achieving with a relatively
       | small team, but more importantly, they've had their heads down
       | working and solving hard problems instead of opting for
       | attention-seeking behavior, making ridiculously pompous claims
       | and false promises (e.g. delivering robotaxies that make you
       | $30k/yr by next year!), getting into ideological (sensor) wars,
       | etc. (How many people know the name of their CEO? And yet they're
       | slowly and steadily marching along, hitting one milestone after
       | another.)
       | 
       | Kudos to the hardworking waymonauts!
        
         | xnx wrote:
         | > How many people know the name of their CEO?
         | 
         | CEOs (plural)
        
           | agnosticmantis wrote:
           | Well, my point exactly ;)
        
         | toss1 wrote:
         | Yup, I very much liked the broader approach of solving the
         | general problem, but this actually seems to be doing better.
         | 
         | The general problem has insane amounts of edge cases, and is
         | basically trying to do a pole-vault-height high jump; if you
         | succeed, you own the world (or at least can automatically drive
         | anywhere on it), but until then, you and your customers have
         | lots of problems.
         | 
         | Meanwhile, the approach of map-everything-down-to-the-
         | centimeter and keep it updating is making real practical
         | progress. The question is whether it'll ever get out of cities?
         | While storage is constantly getting cheaper, but is it feasible
         | to map and update the maps sufficiently for a cross-country
         | trip?
         | 
         | Still, there's an awful lot of city territory that can be
         | covered with genuinely useful service.
        
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