[HN Gopher] U.S. Could Run Out of Cash by June 1, Yellen Warns
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       U.S. Could Run Out of Cash by June 1, Yellen Warns
        
       Author : cardamomo
       Score  : 33 points
       Date   : 2023-05-01 20:31 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
        
       | nabla9 wrote:
       | there are many ways to avoid default.
       | 
       | (1) discharge petition - bill from committee to a vote.
       | 
       | (2) Fourteenth Amendment Constitution prevents willful default
       | until SCOTUS says otherwise. Just keep issuing debt.
       | 
       | (3) High coupon and low principal. 10-year bond with $1 in
       | principal and annual $100 coupon will increase debt ceiling
       | almost 1000X.
       | 
       | (4) high denominations coin minting
        
         | akomtu wrote:
         | These are bandaids. Very soon it will become apparent that the
         | US needs to take extraordinary measures to solve its debt
         | problem, and such measures need an extraordinary excuse, more
         | extraordinary than the recent pandemic.
        
         | kristjansson wrote:
         | > (4) high denominations coin minting
         | 
         | Far and away the most entertaining path. Who gets to carry the
         | trillion dollar coin from the mint to the treasury? How many
         | heist plots will be foiled? How many movies about said heist
         | plots will be made? Will there be a elaborate motorcade that's
         | ultimately a ruse while the coin is sent by USPS in a plain
         | envelope?
        
       | GalenErso wrote:
       | It's unlikely the House will pass a clean debt ceiling hike. The
       | GOP has not budged since the beginning of the new Congress. The
       | MAGA caucus is determined to extract spending cuts at any costs.
       | The way I see it, one of three things will happen:
       | 
       | 1) The executive branch will invoke Section 4 of the 14th
       | Amendment[1] and direct, by Executive Order, the Treasury
       | Department to continue paying interest to bondholders,
       | effectively abolishing the debt ceiling with the stroke of a pen,
       | and without Congress' approval. This is my preferred option.
       | There already exists a strong legal argument that the existence
       | of the debt ceiling is unconstitutional. This maneuver would
       | allow the White House and Congress to fight the issue in the
       | courts without defaulting. The administration could also mint the
       | oft-discussed trillion dollar coin, or a couple of them, if that
       | loophole still exists.
       | 
       | 2) A few sane House Republicans will cross party lines and vote
       | for a clean debt ceiling hike with the Democrats. The Speaker
       | would not be able to prevent it, and what happens to Kevin
       | McCarthy doesn't matter here. Democrats can introduce a bill and
       | force a floor vote without the Speaker's approval (?) Someone
       | correct me on this.
       | 
       | 3) Default. Either the US government stops paying bondholders, or
       | the Fed buys bonds in default (this is called a technical
       | default), or the Treasury keeps paying interest but slashes
       | spending in other areas, like Medicare, to pay for it. However,
       | there are serious doubts as to whether this "debt prioritization"
       | maneuver would be legal and/or constitutional.
       | 
       | Or the administration could cave and give the Republicans what
       | they want, but I don't see that happening, because it would
       | greatly harm Biden's reelection chances and hand a huge political
       | victory to the GOP.
       | 
       | [1] The validity of the public debt of the United States,
       | authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of
       | pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or
       | rebellion, shall not be questioned.
        
         | albatross13 wrote:
         | You do yourself a disservice by blaming one side over the
         | other. Realize this for what it is: a grand play on an even
         | grander stage.
        
           | aschearer wrote:
           | You are part of the problem.
        
           | Larrikin wrote:
           | Both sides are the same is such a tired line.
        
             | albatross13 wrote:
             | It's only tired because you're still asleep. Wake up
        
               | mikem170 wrote:
               | I've held a view similar to yours for a while, that the
               | two parties are the same in many ways, more beholden to
               | money and power than concerned about their constituents.
               | 
               | But I'd point out that one real difference lately is the
               | whole stolen election thing and the related attempts to
               | delegitimize the judicial system. That's some scary
               | stuff. That's how democracies die.
        
           | hackbinary wrote:
           | Nice, an appeal to a false equivalence.
           | 
           | The conservative obstructionist and scorched earth tactics
           | are obscene.
        
             | albatross13 wrote:
             | Do you really think the democratic party has any interest
             | in helping the common man, either? Do you really think
             | that?
             | 
             | The last time your 'democrats' had full control of congress
             | (house and senate), they passed the most anti-poor
             | healthcare bill you've ever seen; complete with FINES FOR
             | PEOPLE IN POVERTY WHO COULD NOT AFFORD, OR DID NOT WANT,
             | GOVERNMENT 'INSURANCE'.
             | 
             | Both sides are broken, both sides want you enchained in
             | debt and despair. You're a fool for playing into it,
             | thinking the horse you're backing is the right one. lmao,
             | they're both in the same race homie.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | https://i.redd.it/qh92pvlfkvd81.jpg
               | 
               | "Both sides" indeed.
        
               | albatross13 wrote:
               | > banned ghost guns
               | 
               | I think you may be too far gone, friend. Enjoy your
               | reddit screenshots, may they guide your moral compass
               | accordingly lmao
        
           | JamesBarney wrote:
           | Right now one party is to blame for the debt ceiling not
           | being raised.
           | 
           | That might change in the future, and if it does I'll be the
           | first one to blame the Democrats. But today, right now, it's
           | the Republicans screwing up.
        
             | albatross13 wrote:
             | Oh you're so close. Change 'one party' to 'the uniparty'
             | and you're there!
        
         | AnimalMuppet wrote:
         | The problem with 1 is that, if the Supreme Court rules that the
         | debt ceiling limit is constitutional, then the US is right
         | then, as of the moment of the ruling, in default. That's an
         | _insanely_ risky gamble.
        
           | GalenErso wrote:
           | Sure, and what if the court said the First Amendment of the
           | Constitution was unconstitutional? The courts can interpret
           | the Constitution. They cannot disregard it wholesale. The
           | power of the judicial branch is not absolute. It can be
           | checked by the other two: the legislative branch and the
           | executive branch. And one way for the executive branch to
           | check the judicial branch is to disregard judicial rulings
           | that are blatantly unconstitutional, just like the judicial
           | branch regularly invalidates entire laws and government
           | programs. This is not a dictatorship or a coup. It's just the
           | balance of power.
           | 
           | "I have directed the Treasury Department to continue honoring
           | our financial commitments to bondholders. My administration
           | will ignore any rulings, by any court, or judge, that would
           | seek to impair all or part of this order, as such rulings
           | would be unconstitutional. I will not allow legal
           | technicalities or political games to threaten the full faith
           | and credit of the United States of America. It it so
           | decided."
           | 
           | I would say these words.
        
         | Georgelemental wrote:
         | What is the desired end game supposed to be, of successive
         | "clean" debt ceiling hikes? How much longer should we be
         | spending money we don't have--enough to make inflation even
         | worse? Enough that nobody will lend to us anymore and default
         | is forced? What's the plan here?
        
           | aschearer wrote:
           | Whatever needs to be done must be done during the budgeting
           | process. Not when the check comes due. Congress wrote the
           | check years ago. Now it's time to pay. If Republicans truly
           | want a more balanced budget they should pursue it then. Of
           | course, the last time the Republicans passed a budget it was
           | far from balanced. Make of that what you will.
        
           | ProjectArcturis wrote:
           | Our debt will continue to grow exponentially, along with our
           | overall economy and population size. That's the plan.
        
       | ms512 wrote:
       | https://archive.is/lsdJS
        
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       (page generated 2023-05-01 23:02 UTC)