[HN Gopher] Japan's Shrinking Population Faces Point of No Return
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Japan's Shrinking Population Faces Point of No Return
Author : jerryjerryjerry
Score : 15 points
Date : 2023-04-30 20:29 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.newsweek.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.newsweek.com)
| Bran_son wrote:
| > Conservative policymakers and a cautious public mean Japan is
| much more likely to look for internal, rather than external,
| solutions to the demographic crunch, despite projections pointing
| to the inevitability of more immigration.
|
| Suppose they choose to "solve" it with immigration - what will
| happen? It will enable their current fertility-destroying system
| to persist, shrinking their population indefinitely, while
| supplementing it with immigrants.
|
| Social-economic systems that cause below-replacement fertility
| are in this way much like parasites, feeding off the host nation.
| Without immigration, eventually this will cause enough of a
| crisis, or a high enough fever, to continue the analogy, that
| will allow the nation to shake off the parasite and change their
| system to something sustainable.
|
| But immigration functions as anesthetic and immunosuppressant -
| keeping the host population just comfortable enough that they go
| gentle into that good night, and giving the parasite economic
| system a new host to feed on.
| jleyank wrote:
| It's not entirely the economic system, other than women no
| having careers after giving birth. It's more the social system,
| and the fact that younger women don't want to seem to want to
| play anymore. Educated women pretty much anywhere in the world
| tend to have fewer children, fewer still if the economic costs
| and penalties increase. The government has to decide that
| children are desired, the social compact has to be rewritten to
| improve the position of women (from broodmare/housemother to
| coequal partner) and then the country needs a bit of good luck.
| There's still 10's of millions of them there, so they have time
| to piddle about "deciding and choosing" what to do.
|
| Perhaps this is a good example of the downside of social
| nationalism in a world that intercommunicates so quickly and so
| effectively?
| slaw wrote:
| Women want to postpone giving birth after they try carriers.
| Once they succees or fails they want to have children, but
| very often at that time they are too old. If country would
| give incentive that it covers cost of child rising, many
| women would probably decide to have children.
| yutijke wrote:
| Aren't countries like Japan or South Korea known for
| gruelling work hours?
|
| I think the economic system itself is not conducive for
| healthy families where both parents get sufficient time to
| spend with kids or family.
|
| In the past this may have been papered over with the cultural
| expectation that the woman takes care of the house and family
| and the man works, but this cultural framework has been
| broken and done away with without any replacement, cultural
| or economical.
| jimmygrapes wrote:
| [flagged]
| epolanski wrote:
| Immigrants eventually become Japanese citizens though when they
| themselves settle in Japan and have families there.
|
| I think Japanese case is very interesting because one would
| think they have the economy and social stability to show us how
| it's done.
| twelve40 wrote:
| ...and they adopt Japanese lifestyle and also go extinct in a
| couple generations?
| Bran_son wrote:
| > Immigrants eventually become Japanese citizens though when
| they themselves settle in Japan
|
| That's great if you want to preserve Japanese paperwork and
| populate Japan's geography, but doesn't help the Japanese
| people themselves.
| questime wrote:
| Nativism is a dead ideology, you can keep posting
| ethnonationalist dogwhistles on hackernews but it doesn't
| change the fact that the world is becoming increasingly
| multicultural. The evidence is overwhelming for this being
| a good thing - and the alternative is rapid decay
| guhidalg wrote:
| Careful, are you saying that Japanese-ness is genetic or
| cultural?
| slaw wrote:
| To be Japanese you have to look like Japanese and talk
| like Japanese. You need both genes and culture. If you
| are Japanese descendant born in US you are American. If
| you are not Japanese American born and raised in Japan
| you are not Japanese.
| guhidalg wrote:
| Then immigration is not going to prevent Japan from a
| population collapse, I suppose to you that's a reasonable
| end to the Japanese people.
| slaw wrote:
| Immigration is not going to prevent Japanese people from
| population collapse, but it can prevent Japan as a
| country. These two are not synonyms. Some other nations
| can live in Japan. There are minorities of Koreans and
| Chinese living in Japan now
| wsgeorge wrote:
| In spite of the problems this has caused, contemporary
| society will eventually have to accept the place genetics
| and tradition has in forming ethnic identities, if it
| intends to ever value distinct ethnicities.
| Bran_son wrote:
| It very much accepted the role of genetics when Rachel
| Dolezal claimed to be black, or Elizabeth Warren claimed
| to be part Cherokee. It seems some groups are allowed to
| gate their identity behind ancestry, while others aren't.
| guhidalg wrote:
| Thanks for introducing "what about ism" to the
| discussion. Your example of white women trying to pass as
| ethnic MINORITIES in the US is nothing at all like saying
| Japanese-ness is genetic.
| clove wrote:
| lol @ "careful," as if it's dangerous to disagree with
| you.
|
| I live in Japan, btw, and the people here in general
| don't consider immigrants to be Japanese, no matter how
| well said immigrants speak Japanese or contribute to
| society.
|
| If you asked a Japanese person, and that person gave you
| a "honne" answer, he or she would most likely say
| "genetic." I guess the Japanese should be "careful," lest
| they draw your ire.
| Bran_son wrote:
| It's both, and it boggles my mind how so many can (claim
| to) be so deluded as to say it's entirely the latter.
| Notably, their culture has changed dramatically over the
| last ~300 years (as it has for most nations), yet one
| wouldn't claim they are no longer Japanese on that basis.
|
| And the Japanese themselves consider Japanese-ness
| genetic, so who are you to tell them otherwise?
| guhidalg wrote:
| I am a human being who can tell them they're really
| bigoted for linking genetics with Japanese-ness. That
| line of thinking isn't new at all, and it's responsible
| for tragedies like miscegenation laws, eugenics,
| genocides, slavery, and (clearly) the demise of the
| native Japanese population for fear of immigration.
|
| Of course people can believe that there's a genetic
| component to Japanese-ness, and they are free to become
| extinct as a result.
| netsharc wrote:
| Well, let's have a stroll through a minefield, but reading
| GP's comment made me wonder if yeah, a country full of
| migrant Japanese should/can be considered "Japanese", or if
| we're only counting the population with centuries of
| "native Japanese blood" as "Japanese".
|
| For the sake of discussion, say if the government
| "imported" Scandinavian[1] families with their traditions,
| etc, to Japan, probably they'll keep this culture, and
| you'd have "parallel societies". Maybe only if the migrant
| families have kids who are young enough to grow up with the
| Japanese culture, and for some people maybe even that's not
| Japanese enough, because of their migrant parents'
| influence on them, and maybe only the kids of these kids,
| who'd have assimilated even more Japanese culture while
| growing up, would be sufficiently Japanese.
|
| Edit to add: the alternative, a bunch of Scandinavians
| living in Scandinavian neighborhoods and sending their kids
| to Scandinavian schools (with their own cultures/languages)
| would bring about a totally different community within a
| few generations, which one could say "not very Japanese",
| or "a very different Japan".
|
| [1] I had a different origin country before I changed it to
| "Scandinavian", I have a feeling changing the country has
| an effect on how people would perceive such a migration,
| but hey maybe I'm projecting my own bias.
| timeon wrote:
| Not sure if it makes sense to argue around analogy.
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