[HN Gopher] Why is it so hard to pull off a lunar landing?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Why is it so hard to pull off a lunar landing?
        
       Author : pseudolus
       Score  : 95 points
       Date   : 2023-04-29 11:15 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nature.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nature.com)
        
       | Dah00n wrote:
       | It is sad that every time there is a discussion online about
       | something like this it always ends up with some anti-USSR / pro-
       | US talk.
        
       | spaceman_2020 wrote:
       | What was different about the Apollo missions that they were so
       | overwhelmingly successful, but similar efforts fail today?
        
         | azlev wrote:
         | Total Apollo workforce: 400,000.
         | 
         | https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190617-apollo-in-50-num...
        
         | cubefox wrote:
         | The most important difference is probably the budget.
        
         | m4rtink wrote:
         | Couple dozen Ranger and Surveyor probe craters to get the
         | landing technology right.
        
           | nanumbat wrote:
           | Yes on Ranger, however the first Surveyor completed a soft
           | landing and returned image data.
        
         | T-A wrote:
         | _An unwelcoming view glared at Armstrong. Where the orbital
         | maps indicated a smooth plain, there was instead a vast crater
         | field and collections of truck-sized boulders. Flying manually
         | and low on fuel, Armstrong leveled off and searched for a
         | smooth spot._
         | 
         | https://www.space.com/26593-apollo-11-moon-landing-scariest-...
        
         | aflag wrote:
         | The budget, for one. It was 2-3% of the GDP at the time. These
         | commercial efforts have nothing remotely close to that. Also
         | failure was seen as a bigger deal for all involved (due to the
         | soviet threat). So, they'd rather waterfall the hell out of
         | that program rather than fail and do things iteratively. I'm
         | sure these commercial projects will eventually succeed. But it
         | takes time.
        
           | pseg134 wrote:
           | Why do you express the budget as a percentage of GDP instead
           | of inflation adjusted dollars?
        
             | aflag wrote:
             | To better represent how big of an effort it was. A non-
             | trivial part of the economy was dedicated to get that
             | project working. I think that is a better representation of
             | the effort.
        
           | spaceman_2020 wrote:
           | Wow, 2-3% of the GDP is massive. I didn't realize it was such
           | a well-funded effort.
        
             | williamDafoe wrote:
             | I am wondering if 2-3% of GDP is accurate? 2-3% of GDP was
             | spent on 0.2% of the population ... Really?
        
       | chrisweekly wrote:
       | Fun tangent: this moon lander game was posted here on HN
       | recently: https://ehmorris.com/lander/
        
       | uguuo_o wrote:
       | Why is it so hard? Plume-surface interaction plays a major role
       | during the landing sequence. Most projects "test,test and more
       | test" like the ones mentioned in the article, but they clearly
       | have no idea how unforgiving the environment is. When the vehicle
       | gets closer to the surface, the engine exhaust gets redirected
       | upwards, accelerating regolith to ~ 1km/s speeds. Any sensitive
       | hardware that is hit can easily be taken out. Additionally, the
       | closer the vehicle gets to the surface the more difficulty
       | landing sensors will have in looking through the induced regolith
       | cloud.[0] NASA has been studying the problem through experimental
       | and computational campaigns for a long time, but just recently
       | has put significant resources into understanding PSI on extreme
       | environments.
       | 
       | Edit: reference
       | 
       | [0]
       | https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/game_changing_de...
        
         | mjevans wrote:
         | Also see the most recent first SpaceX Starship launch attempt.
         | Widely accepted current theories about likely failure mode root
         | cause involve exactly this sort of thrust ground interaction
         | kicking up debris.
         | 
         | I am a huge proponent of sending robots first, to build safer
         | landing and launch structures, possibly also bases or better
         | places to situate bases.
        
       | WalterBright wrote:
       | > Compared with Earth, for example, the Moon has reduced gravity,
       | very little atmosphere and lots of dust.
       | 
       | But no weather. Weather is an enormous risk factor for Earth
       | landings.
        
       | 7373737373 wrote:
       | What stands out to me is:
       | 
       | > Even if a lander makes it to the vicinity of the Moon, it still
       | has to navigate its way down to the surface with no global-
       | positioning satellites for guidance
       | 
       | Was/is such a constellation ever planned? If not, why - due to
       | the difficulty orbiting the moon?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | m4rtink wrote:
         | Moon is indeed hard to orbit (without constant course
         | corrections) due to its lumpy gravitational field:
         | 
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_concentration_(astronom...
        
           | mjevans wrote:
           | Why not just send robots to build some triangulation towers
           | on the surface instead?
        
         | williamDafoe wrote:
         | Cruise missiles have an incredibly good terrain following
         | navigation software - I don't think it's hard to navigate
         | without GPS people get fat dumb and lazy because of GPS...
        
       | bitL wrote:
       | Frankly, why is it so hard? The article doesn't really show
       | anything outside dust playing role in the very final stage but
       | most landings failed higher above ground. These days we even have
       | lasers to instantly detect distance to the ground that could be
       | incorporated real-time to thruster output. There is almost no
       | atmosphere for friction so basic Newtonian mechanics should be
       | able to make a decent landing. Orbital mechanics is also out of
       | the question near the ground. Why is this still an unsolved
       | problem?
        
         | khendron wrote:
         | > There is almost no atmosphere for friction so basic Newtonian
         | mechanics should be able to make a decent landing
         | 
         | Actually, I think that is the one of the biggest challenges. No
         | atmosphere to slow you down means you have to rely entirely on
         | rockets to slow down from orbital speeds to zero.
        
         | HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
         | How many complex machines (or complex anything) are going to
         | work first time?
         | 
         | Most things require an iterative loop of testing, fixing and
         | refinement.
         | 
         | The trouble with landing on another planet (with different
         | gravity, atmospheric density, etc) is that there's no real way
         | before you get there, therefore first attempts are extremely
         | likely to fail.
        
         | joshuahedlund wrote:
         | Still going to have margins of error with both the measurements
         | and the corrections, right? If those margins are higher than
         | what the Moon forgives...
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | Fully autonomous landing in unknown surfaces is still pretty
           | difficult. Still, the Moon should be more forgiving than the
           | Earth - no wind, lower gravity...
        
             | krisoft wrote:
             | But also, here on earth you go to your backyard and try
             | your landing as many times as you want. While with the moon
             | you have simulations and models of various fidelity.
        
             | csunbird wrote:
             | A celestial body with an atmosphere: Very easy to land but
             | incredibly hard to take off from.
             | 
             | A celestial body with no atmosphere: Extremely easy to take
             | off from, but very hard to actually land.
        
             | m4rtink wrote:
             | No atmosphere - need to brake all of the velocity
             | difference with engines & can't use aerodynamic surfaces or
             | parachutes.
             | 
             | On a body with atmosphere you can essentially just drop a
             | payload up to some maximum size with a proper heat shield
             | and a parashute and it will end up (somewhere) on the
             | surface in one piece.
             | 
             | On an atmosphere less body you essentially need to run
             | precisely controlled flight all the way to touchdown.
             | 
             | Everything has tradeoffs. :-P
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | > need to brake all of the velocity difference with
               | engines
               | 
               | Engines are well understood. With enough propellant one
               | can gently hover down at 1 cm/s from 1km. No atmosphere
               | also means few surprises.
        
               | messe wrote:
               | A thin atmosphere like mars can make it worse. The actual
               | amount of braking you get is a bit unpredictable, and the
               | size of the aerodynamic surfaces you need to make a
               | significant impact can use up quite a bit of your mass
               | budget (example: despite the size of the
               | Perseverance/Curiosity parachutes, they still needed a
               | sky-crane for final touchdown).
        
         | T-A wrote:
         | > but most landings failed higher above ground
         | 
         | AFAIK there have only been two attempts by private companies.
         | 
         | SpaceIL's crash in 2019 seems to have been caused by a
         | premature engine shutdown due to a faulty IMU [1].
         | 
         | iSpace's attempt seemed to go well until the very end, when
         | contact with the lander was lost. Their status update from
         | April 26 suggests that also their engine may have shut down
         | prematurely: "engineers monitored the estimated remaining
         | propellant reached at the lower threshold and shortly afterward
         | the descent speed rapidly increased" [2].
         | 
         | If this turns out to be the case, the ultimate culprit may be
         | faulty altimetry.
         | 
         | > These days we even have lasers to instantly detect distance
         | to the ground that could be incorporated real-time to thruster
         | output.
         | 
         | Yes, but lasers don't work well through dust clouds, and
         | throttling rocket engines is hard. You can't smoothly reduce
         | thrust all the way to 0; even with a sophisticated design,
         | there is a cutoff at something like 20% [3]. So you need to
         | plan ahead, shut down the engine before touchdown and hope that
         | you don't end up hitting a stray boulder - which is all it
         | might take to tip over and bury your antennas in regolith.
         | 
         | [1] https://spacenews.com/spaceil-says-chain-of-events-led-to-
         | cr...
         | 
         | [2] https://ispace-inc.com/news-en/?p=4655
         | 
         | [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_engine#Throttling
        
       | WalterBright wrote:
       | > early indications suggest that this week's ispace failure could
       | have been caused by the lander running out of propellant just
       | before it touched down
       | 
       | I practiced a lot with the Lunar Lander game in the 1970s. The
       | trick is to let it fall until the last second, then hit the
       | thrusters full blast to hit 0V as it hits the surface.
       | 
       | Burn too soon, and you run out of propellant and crash.
        
       | cubefox wrote:
       | > Only three entities have successfully soft-landed on the Moon
       | -- the government-funded space agencies of China, the Soviet
       | Union and the United States. And only China has done it since the
       | 1970s and on its first attempt.
       | 
       | This sounds as if the journalist tries to downplay the fact that
       | NASA managed to do it a) first, and b) actually landed humans on
       | the moon, not just unmanned vehicles. The only thing which makes
       | it less impressive is the enormous budget of the Apollo program.
        
         | Freire_Herval wrote:
         | The sentence is just a factual statement. 3 agencies have done
         | it. That is fact.
         | 
         | The sentence did mention china has done it on the first attempt
         | which is also factual and relevant to context. The article is
         | about moon landings and associated failures.
         | 
         | As for the Apollo program everyone knows about it. There's no
         | point in regurgitating obvious facts.
        
           | sidlls wrote:
           | It's only relevant to context if it also includes the context
           | in which the event occurred: China's first attempt is not a
           | notable achievement in the same way the first successful
           | landing after many failures is. I really hate these
           | sinophiles' attempts to elevate China into some super-
           | awesome, super-intelligent master race.
        
             | Dah00n wrote:
             | >I really hate these sinophiles' attempts to elevate China
             | into some super-awesome, super-intelligent master race.
             | 
             | Please don't do this. You are seeing things in the text
             | that isn't there and you seem to do the same just the other
             | way around. It reads anti-chinese / racist.
        
               | cubefox wrote:
               | He was just arguing against (what he perceived as)
               | excessive sinophilia.
        
               | Freire_Herval wrote:
               | [dead]
        
             | messe wrote:
             | > China's first attempt is not a notable achievement in the
             | same way the first successful landing after many failures
             | is.
             | 
             | Landing on the first attempt is pretty impressive in
             | itself, given the difficulty in landing at all is.
             | 
             | > I really hate these sinophiles' attempts to elevate China
             | into some super-awesome, super-intelligent master race.
             | 
             | ...I'm sorry, what the fuck are you talking about?
        
         | yshklarov wrote:
         | You could be right, but the way I read it is that those are
         | things that everyone already knows, so there is no point in
         | spelling them out.
        
         | so-and-so wrote:
         | Thought it was the soviets to first "land" a ship on the moon.
         | Remember they had a lot of internal dicussions on if the Moon
         | had a solid surface.
        
           | euroderf wrote:
           | The Apollo 11 crew was ready to immediately take off again if
           | the lander's legs began sinking deeply into dust.
        
           | jwilk wrote:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_9
           | 
           | > _On 3 February 1966, the Luna 9 spacecraft became the first
           | spacecraft to achieve a survivable landing on a celestial
           | body._
        
             | cubefox wrote:
             | Oops. But too late to delete the comment now...
             | 
             | By the way, it got 7 upvotes despite being factually
             | incorrect.
        
         | ncphil wrote:
         | But a lot of US govt programs from that era spent a lot more
         | money, and didn't deliver such impressive results: if they
         | delivered at all.
        
           | cubefox wrote:
           | At least the Manhattan project was similarly impressive.
        
         | f6v wrote:
         | It'd be much easier if all we care was humanity's achievements.
        
           | Freire_Herval wrote:
           | Darwinistic tendencies will always be part of human behavior,
           | it is ingrained in our biology.
           | 
           | People will be competitive, and they will form groups and
           | take sides and compare technological achievements.
        
         | amrocha wrote:
         | NASA didn't do it first, the USSR did. And the only reason they
         | didn't land people on the moon first too is because their
         | country was falling apart and they reduced investment in their
         | space program.
         | 
         | You're the one downplaying actual history.
        
           | williamDafoe wrote:
           | It took 12 attempts to land a robot on the moon for the USSR.
           | Their heavy booster program was in shambles. They literally
           | never developed anything close to as powerful as Saturn V (5m
           | pounds of thrust). They would be lucky not to crash 12 human
           | vehicles on the moon. Leading for the first 5 miles of a
           | marathon doesn't make you the winner!
        
             | cubefox wrote:
             | I think their N1 rocket was similar and pretty far in
             | development before it was cancelled.
        
               | mustacheemperor wrote:
               | The N1 rocket was intended to be similar but how far
               | along it really was to completion seems questionable to
               | me. I'm not a rocket scientist, but my understanding is
               | the first stage was not statically tested and the
               | complete rocket failed in the first stage on each of its
               | four tests - one of which caused a gigantic explosion in
               | the launch complex visible from over 20 miles away. If
               | anyone with deeper rocket history expertise can weigh in
               | I'd be interested to know how feasible an average
               | historian would consider the successful completion of the
               | N1 if it had continued to be funded.
        
             | amrocha wrote:
             | In the space race's case, they were leading in literally
             | all practical and utilitarian aspects during the entire
             | race, then they won the race, called it quits, and then the
             | USA moved the goalposts and crossed them.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | They could not get their moon booster rocket to reliably
               | work, and that ended their moon shot program.
               | 
               | Saturn V had the same problems (dynamic instability)
               | which nearly destroyed it. It just barely worked.
        
           | Dah00n wrote:
           | >the only reason they didn't land people on the moon first
           | too is because their country was falling apart
           | 
           | My interpretation of the history of the USSR space program is
           | that they more often than not went the hard way and used
           | remote controlled/preprogrammed vehicles not because it was
           | easier but because it was hard (sorry). I fail to see how
           | landing people on the moon is a bigger achievement than if it
           | was done by remote control in a time with, well, hardly any
           | computer power at all. In my opinion this is part of the
           | rewrite of the history of the space race to an alternative
           | version where the goal was actually landing a man on the moon
           | and not a moving goal post that changed every time something
           | new was achieved.
        
             | amrocha wrote:
             | I don't disagree with you, the goalposts were always being
             | moved by the country that lost the last stage, usually the
             | USA.
             | 
             | I also think there's a case to be made that, given their
             | history of success and expertise, they could have also
             | landed a man on the moon first if things had gone
             | differently.
        
       | neom wrote:
       | If you wanna see the disappointment in the control room, here is
       | the video:
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/live/CpR1UUnix3g?feature=share&t=428...
       | 
       | Scrub to 1:11:20
       | 
       | And at 1:35:33 the folks in the background look like they're
       | holding back tears.
        
         | fuzzfactor wrote:
         | >the United States and the Soviet Union were racing to land
         | there, they crashed spacecraft after spacecraft before each
         | finally succeeded in 1966. The government space agencies were
         | able to learn from each landing attempt.
         | 
         | Roger.
         | 
         | >Today, by contrast, private companies are expected to repeat
         | these successes, without government resources and without
         | lessons gleaned from many failed and successful missions
         | 
         | Misplaced expectations.
         | 
         | They're going to _need_ more crashes.
         | 
         | >the folks in the background look like they're holding back
         | tears.
         | 
         | This was not in the background when NASA astronauts were
         | tragically lost before they got to the moon the first time.
         | 
         | I expect anyone to repeat these failures until they have enough
         | lessons learned themselves.
         | 
         | >why is it so hard to pull off a lunar landing?
         | 
         | Mother Nature is a bitch.
        
           | mulmen wrote:
           | > This was not in the background when NASA astronauts were
           | tragically lost before they got to the moon the first time.
           | 
           | I don't follow. Are you suggesting NASA mission control
           | didn't mourn the loss of Chaffee, Grissom, and White?
        
             | hgsgm wrote:
             | It was in the foreground.
        
               | fuzzfactor wrote:
               | Definitely what I had in mind.
               | 
               | The whole world was heartbroken as awareness was
               | universally raised about remaining risks even after such
               | extensive and successful efforts had intentionally and
               | brilliantly greatly reduced the possibilities.
               | 
               | Lurking risks still exist and unforseen failure modes
               | remain as defined.
               | 
               | Space Shuttles were not fatality-free either.
        
           | sidlls wrote:
           | On the one hand we have people lauding SpaceX/Musk as super
           | geniuses able to achieve great feats without the supposed
           | waste and largesse of the government, and on the other we
           | have the same group wringing their hands when expectations
           | are set based on their gushing praise.
        
             | fuzzfactor wrote:
             | "Naturally", it can take so much time to accomplish
             | something working _with_ nature, time is one of the most
             | likely natural forces to cause expectations to exceed
             | accomplishments or even possibilities.
             | 
             | And when nature is working _against_ you . . .
        
       | eql5 wrote:
       | Related: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpuKu3F0BvY
        
       | jmyeet wrote:
       | Many of us have an overly simplistic view of orbital mechanics
       | that fall well short of how it works in the real world. Take the
       | example of India's failed Vikram lander [1]:
       | 
       | > The official said that predicting orbits below 50 km is very
       | tricky and usually they are estimated with an accuracy of
       | plus/minus 1 km. If the lander`s predicted height was at 30 km,
       | the actual orbit height may remain anywhere between 29 to 31 km.
       | 
       | > Similar will be the error in horizontal direction. Such errors
       | occur as local gravity varies widely due to large variation of
       | density of mountains and plains.
       | 
       | Newton's gravity equations deal with bodies like the Moon as
       | having uniform mass. That's not he case and it matters.
       | 
       | Fun fact: China's Three Gorges Dam slowed down the Earth's
       | rotation by 0.06 microseconds per day [2]. That's actually not a
       | big deal because the rotation has variance all of its own from
       | tides, weather, etc.
       | 
       | So even if you had a density map of the Moon you'd still have to
       | account for variance added by rotational variation.
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.zeebiz.com/india/news-on-indias-vikram-lander-
       | di...
       | 
       | [2]: https://www.kinetica.co.uk/2014/03/27/chinese-dam-slows-
       | down...
        
         | krisoft wrote:
         | > Newton's gravity equations deal with bodies like the Moon as
         | having uniform mass.
         | 
         | Let's not make a joke of ourselves. Newton's gravity equations
         | deal perfectly well with non uniform masses. You just need to
         | integrate properly.
         | 
         | But all of this is beside the point. Obviously you are not
         | going to land open loop. You need sensors which tell you where
         | you are and how fast you are going.
        
         | grog454 wrote:
         | > China's Three Gorges Dam slowed down the Earth's rotation by
         | 0.06 microseconds per day [2]. That's actually not a big deal
         | because the rotation has variance all of its own from tides,
         | weather, etc
         | 
         | I'm confused, how is the mean changing less impactful due to
         | relatively high variance? If the was no variance at all, would
         | .06us be a disaster?
        
           | ordu wrote:
           | It _may_ be a disaster, but if we manage to live with
           | variance that are higher than 0.06 microseconds per day, we
           | should manage this small change in an average.
        
       | gonzo41 wrote:
       | I think people forget how much US national effort was dedicated
       | to the space race. These guy's did incredibly well, even with
       | modern advances for the money they are working with.
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | Yes. And with a little less luck/skill, the Apollo 11 lunar
         | landing could have ended up as a disaster too.
        
           | bell-cot wrote:
           | A bit of backstory on just how far they went, to prepare for
           | that mission-critical bit:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Landing_Research_Vehicle
           | 
           | Note how willing they were to risk life and limb in training
           | exercises, and Armstrong's comments on how important the
           | skills gained there were to their actual mission success.
        
         | bell-cot wrote:
         | That...but also the generation which had (so to speak) stepped
         | up and won WWII was running the show. Their skills at,
         | experience with, and dedication to giga-scale technological
         | development programs and bleeding-edge aerospace missions made
         | an enormous difference.
        
           | gonzo41 wrote:
           | You're overestimating an older generation and underestimating
           | the impact of what you can do with unlimited money, and 400K
           | people working on one problem.
        
             | bell-cot wrote:
             | Perhaps. But ~unlimited money and ~unlimited people are the
             | backstory for pretty much every massive government or
             | corporate boondoggle, ever.
        
               | prottog wrote:
               | Agreed. The Apollo project was 2-3% of GDP at the time,
               | compared to some modern projects:
               | 
               | - Second Avenue Subway at a projected total cost across
               | all phases of $17B vs. the GDP of NYC at $1T = 1.7%
               | 
               | - Berlin Brandenburg Airport at a final cost of EUR7B vs.
               | the GDP of the city of Berlin and the federal state of
               | Brandenburg combined at EUR228B = 3%
               | 
               | - California High Speed Rail at a current estimate of
               | $128B for the full LA-SF system vs. the GDP of California
               | at $3.6T = 3.5%
               | 
               | And all of these examples understate the problem, since
               | the GDP was lower when the projects began, the costs may
               | continue to rise as the projects progress, and outside
               | (national-level) funding assistance is also used. So
               | there is at least some merit to the idea that we just
               | can't build as well as we used to.
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | > So there is at least some merit to the idea that we
               | just can't build as well as we used to.
               | 
               | We could, there is nothing preventing the US or Europe to
               | return to 1970s taxation for companies and the filthy
               | rich. The reason why we can't build like back then is to
               | a very large part the erosion of the tax base to pay for
               | it.
        
               | prottog wrote:
               | The data does not support your claim. US government
               | expenditure as a fraction of the GDP was lower in the 70s
               | (30-35%) than it is now (35-40%). The government revenue,
               | about the same (around 30%). So the tax base is roughly
               | the same relative to economic output, and spending
               | slightly higher, with the difference made up for by
               | deficits.
               | 
               | The Transcontinental Railroad was built in the 1860s and
               | the Hoover Dam in the 1930s, both when government
               | expenditure as well as taxation at all levels were a
               | single-digit percent of GDP. I suppose by your logic we
               | would be a galaxy-faring species if only we were able to
               | tax the likes of Bezos and Musk?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | machina_ex_deus wrote:
       | The Apollo moon landings were such an insane achievement. They
       | did it in a time where digital processing was in it's infancy and
       | barely existed, minimization technology was undeveloped, many
       | modern materials which are much stronger and lighter weren't
       | invented yet.
       | 
       | And they managed to live broadcast from the moon! Storage was in
       | it's infancy, so even storing a video from the moon was
       | impossible (they would need many reels of film that just wouldn't
       | fit.
       | 
       | Digital cameras weren't invented, you only had analogue cameras.
       | Most of them required film - and can't be developed on the spot,
       | it requires special equipment. So to get video from the moon, the
       | used cathode ray tube cameras - and even the cathode ray tubes of
       | TV news were huge at the time, you can look at pictures, these
       | things used to take a whole truck to carry. But they managed to
       | get a very small cathode ray tube camera there, and to film long
       | videos of hours of missions on the moon.
       | 
       | And get managed to broadcast it all with analogue RF all the way
       | from the moon to earth. With no digital signal processing,
       | because that wasn't fast enough back then for any real time use.
       | And with surprisingly low noise for an analogue transmission.
       | They made a whole network of receivers on earth to be able to do
       | it.
       | 
       | Today all of that would be cheap, but back then it must've been
       | quite the achievement.
       | 
       | They also had pretty minimal computational power available
       | compared to newer attempts. But maybe putting a human in control
       | is enough.
       | 
       | Google's moon challenge is pretty cool. They actually wanted to
       | give a bonus for taking pictures of the original moon landing
       | site. That could've been really nice.
       | 
       | But sadly, NASA was afraid that the site would be disturbed and
       | declared no fight zone over it.
        
         | mulmen wrote:
         | > But sadly, NASA was afraid that the site would be disturbed
         | and declared no fight zone over it.
         | 
         | Seems like a reasonable precaution for a industry that brought
         | us "move fast and break things" and normalized endless bugs as
         | an unavoidable natural law.
        
         | MarcoZavala wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | nirmel wrote:
         | Am I the only one who thinks the US didn't actually achieve
         | this achievement, which indeed would have been "insane" if they
         | had? See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxW__ZtZApo Of course
         | they faked it. It's too damn hard, and they weren't about to
         | risk the lives of astronauts.
        
           | nikanj wrote:
           | The uploader has not made that video available in my country.
           | I wonder if they're worried about stricter libel laws
        
           | michaelmrose wrote:
           | You should consider spending less time on youtube viewing
           | conspiracy theories or at least don't bring them here. Apollo
           | 11 left a reflector on the moon that we have used since to
           | accurately measure the distance between the Earth and moon
           | since. A good rule of thumb to avoid promoting poorly sourced
           | material is to never use a youtube video to "prove" anything
           | that doesn't have a more legitimate primary source.
        
           | simonh wrote:
           | You're not the only one, but there don't seem to be many of
           | you. There's just way too much evidence it was a real space
           | program and all the counter arguments are weak, flawed or
           | straight up based on absurd misunderstandings and
           | misinterpretation of the evidence.
           | 
           | Even aside from the evidence itself it fails the massive
           | conspiracy with no leaks test. Conspiracies leak
           | exponentially with the number of people in the know. SOE
           | worked this all out running operations in occupied Europe.
           | This is why top secret intelligence operations employ
           | incredibly rigorous procedures. Let's say you have a spy in a
           | foreign country, you make sure only a tiny number of people
           | know the details, preferably low single digits, you layer and
           | compartmentalise everything, you run decoy operations. Even
           | then it's incredibly hard, the vast majority of operations
           | eventually leak. Only very few of the best run operations
           | with very few people in the know ever last.
           | 
           | With the moon landings many hundreds, more like thousands of
           | people would have to know. All of the astronauts and their
           | backups, the model and set makers, the film crews, the
           | mission flight staff, the film and video technical production
           | staff. There were six manned landings, they'd have had to do
           | the whole faking thing over and over again for years. Plus
           | these people wouldn't be trained spies, they'd be mostly
           | civilians with very specific technical skills so you can't be
           | picky about who you select for it.
           | 
           | There is no way this wouldn't have leaked. Somebody on the
           | inside would have talked, especially by now with the Cold War
           | well and truly over. Why wouldn't they? But no, nothing, not
           | even a hint after fifty years.
        
           | dev_tty01 wrote:
           | Yes, you are the only one.
        
         | bouncycastle wrote:
         | back on those days, the best brains of their generation were
         | not occupied with thinking about how to make people click
         | ads...
        
           | spaceman_2020 wrote:
           | I suspect part of the moon landing failure has to do with the
           | primacy of physics in our technology in that era compared to
           | electronics today.
        
           | sidlls wrote:
           | The best brains of this generation aren't focused on ad
           | clicks, either.
        
           | izacus wrote:
           | No, they were thinking about how to effectively kill as much
           | people as possible at a distance.
           | 
           | Remember that apollo program (just like soviet one) was an
           | offshoot of military wanting to erase a nation on the other
           | side of the world with efficiency.
        
             | prepend wrote:
             | Interestingly I bet the kill thinkers killed fewer than the
             | ad thinkers. Ads make people buy more stuff. More stuff
             | makes people fat and unhealthy and sad and increase the
             | mortality rate.
        
               | izacus wrote:
               | That is some world class cope there.
        
             | trothamel wrote:
             | That's not actually true.
             | 
             | The Mercury and Gemini programs, sure - both of them used
             | ICBM as their boosters. So did the Vostok, Vokshod, and
             | Soyuz programs.
             | 
             | Apollo was very different. The Saturn booster is so much
             | larger and more complicated than any reasonable ICBM would
             | be, it would be gloriously inefficient at that role.
             | 
             | The Apollo program was a cold war thing. But it wasn't a
             | military thing, it was a different kind of competition.
             | 
             | If you take a look at the vintage Rockets of the World
             | poster (https://venngage-wordpress-
             | gallery.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/...) you can see how much
             | bigger the N1 and Saturn V (spanning the last two rows),
             | compared to the earlier boosters on the third and fourth
             | rows.
        
               | izacus wrote:
               | Apollo was absolutely a part of a military thing (as I
               | said, an offshoot) as well and it's also a reason why it
               | died before finishing when its military use became
               | questionable.
        
               | jfoutz wrote:
               | Well, from that perspective, what isn't a military thing?
               | 
               | The internet is a communication to survive nuclear war.
               | Forklifts and pallets were to simplify military
               | logistics. The highway system is to provide point to
               | point connections without risking losing a railway. Cell
               | phones are kinda private, but a lot of the components
               | came from special hardware for the military.
               | 
               | I'm sure there's lots of neat tech we use everyday that
               | isn't rooted in military funding, I just can't think of
               | any at the moment.
        
             | rwmj wrote:
             | Not really. By the time Apollo came around, erasing the
             | nation on the other side of the world was pretty much a
             | solved problem. 400,000 people were employed on Apollo and
             | they weren't military (well, a few were) and were not
             | thinking about nuclear weapons.
        
               | izacus wrote:
               | Even Space Shuttle later was driven (and funded) heavily
               | by military applications, a lot of Apollo funding came
               | from wish of improving missile guidance systems as well.
               | 
               | You're trying to make a distinction where there is none -
               | it's the same bag of money. Which also why the money
               | quickly dried up when rocket guidance, indeed, became a
               | solved problem. Before Apollo was finished.
        
             | rbanffy wrote:
             | > they were thinking about how to effectively kill as much
             | people as possible at a distance.
             | 
             | And rockets that can navigate precisely are a nice side-
             | effect of that.
        
           | LadyCailin wrote:
           | No, they were in gay conversion therapy, or having to walk 3
           | miles just to use the only colored restroom on the campus.
        
           | George83728 wrote:
           | [dead]
        
         | CatWChainsaw wrote:
         | That sounds like a race to Instagram-ify the moon. Nothing sad
         | about preventing that.
        
         | throwaway6734 wrote:
         | IIRC the landing would have been a failure too without Neil
         | Armstrong's skill as a pilot under pressure
        
         | actionfromafar wrote:
         | The video feed was HD video too! Alas, only one room in
         | Australia got to see the HD video feed.
        
         | pulvinar wrote:
         | Folks, NASA's Surveyor program (1966-68) is a better comparison
         | here, not Apollo. It made the first moon landing by the US
         | (after the Russian's Luna 9, 4 months before), and the first
         | landing of the series was successful, though some of the others
         | failed. It was a fully automatic landing, unlike Neil
         | Armstrong's.
         | 
         | It built on lessons learned from the many failures of the
         | Ranger program before it. And the Russians lost 12 landers
         | before their first success.
        
           | croutonwagon wrote:
           | Its important to note that the Moons gravity (and other
           | bodies) isnt a static thing. There are places were its more
           | apparent and places where its less.
           | 
           | In fact we dont even know of the Apollo 11 LM is still in
           | orbit of the moon or not.
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBHbLV7xEhc
           | 
           | Scott Manley's video also has some links in its description
           | for some of the tools NASA uses for more precise
           | gravitational estimations and whatnot. Its pretty cool.
        
           | nanumbat wrote:
           | My late father-in-law was a manager at Hughes working on
           | Surveyor 1. My wife shared his (unpublished) notes and audio
           | recordings of the the project with me. It was an absolutely
           | remarkable achievement. I can confirm that the Hughes team
           | was devastated that Luna 9 got there first, however they
           | actually learned quite a bit from the Luna 9 video feed.
           | 
           | It should also be noted that Luna 9 was a relatively hard
           | landing, not suitable for a crewed spacecraft. Surveyor 1 was
           | the first soft landing, and a prototype for the missions that
           | would follow.
        
           | williamDafoe wrote:
           | Apollo 11 was set to land automatically using the computer
           | when Armstrong took controls at the last minute supposedly to
           | avoid a Boulder Field. It's not really clear that his
           | takeover of the automatic controls was necessary - what is
           | clear is that mankind landing for the first time on another
           | celestial body using automatic computers is probably not
           | cool. ... And NASA was driven and sold to the public as a
           | human interest project ...
        
             | djmips wrote:
             | Nevertheless he didn't takeover completely - it was still a
             | computer assisted landing.
        
         | scrapcode wrote:
         | > But sadly, NASA was afraid that the site would be disturbed
         | and declared no fight [flight?] zone over it.
         | 
         | Moon landing deniers would eat that one up.
        
           | Maursault wrote:
           | Most don't make the distinction, but that the Apollo missions
           | succeeded in landing on the Moon is far less doubted as
           | whether the footage was faked.[1]
           | 
           | [1] https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2085910/
        
           | api wrote:
           | I'm surprised how many people still believe this in spite of
           | photos having been taken of the sites from Lunar orbit by
           | other space programs.
           | 
           | It seems to be an article of faith for some though. We could
           | have a space tourism industry with a package to visit the
           | Apollo landing site museum on the Moon and a ton of people
           | still would not believe.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | There are retroreflectors on the moon you can use to prove
             | we were there.
        
               | funnymony wrote:
               | For such proof to be effective, one has to trust lot of
               | formulas from physics books. (Source of flat-earthery is
               | extreme distrust in everything that is not a first-hand
               | experience. You can't prove much if your limited
               | exclusively to first hand experience)
        
               | MarcoZavala wrote:
               | [dead]
        
             | klntsky wrote:
             | Does the existence of some object on the moon surface prove
             | that the broadcast was live and that the spaceship
             | successfully returned?
        
               | shrimp_emoji wrote:
               | No, but your probability heuristic is catastrophically
               | flawed if, from that, you conclude the landing was faked
               | despite material having been placed up there.
        
               | api wrote:
               | The presence of the expected artifacts such as the LEM
               | descent stage, rovers, foot and rover tracks, and science
               | packages all left just where the mission logs said they
               | would be are certainly pretty suggestive.
               | 
               | The alternate explanation would be a hoax so elaborate it
               | involved robotic missions to leave props on the moon on
               | top of a giant disposable rocket launch, satellites to
               | fake the signals, and a huge cutting edge filming effort
               | to fake the broadcasts. At some point it starts to get as
               | hard as just going to the damn moon.
        
               | mjevans wrote:
               | I believe in the evidence that the moon landings
               | happened.
               | 
               | However, as you suggest, even if that evidence were faked
               | to such an elaborate degree could be an even higher
               | technical feat that would be worthy of even greater
               | recognition.
        
         | CrampusDestrus wrote:
         | This was a commercial vector, not some experimental top US
         | priority stuff.
         | 
         | It's unfortunate that aboard the commercial craft there was
         | stuff from national space programs, but this was not comparable
         | to NASA's mission. It's just like SpaceX exploding a ton of
         | rockets to further their research instead of obsessing over
         | getting everything perfect on first try. Unfortunately they
         | should have done more mock missions, but there wouldn't have
         | been enough funding I fear
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | machina_ex_deus wrote:
           | Even if you knew back in 1970s the exact specification of
           | iPhone camera, you still couldn't manufacture it because
           | improvement in manufacturing is a gradual self dependent
           | process where the new equipment is built by the old
           | equipment, and you can't make sudden jumps in accuracy or
           | minimization because these things depend on weaker versions
           | of themselves.
        
             | prottog wrote:
             | You might have a point about the semiconductors involved
             | (that back in the 70s the engineering ability just wasn't
             | there), but as a counterpoint, almost anything can be
             | manufactured given an unlimited budget, like the moon
             | landing programs had. We even turned lead (well, bismuth)
             | into gold back in the 80s.
             | 
             | Making one of something where the cost is no object is
             | almost always possible. Making millions at a commercially-
             | viable cost is much more challenging.
        
               | soneil wrote:
               | I always find the "unlimited budget" angle interesting.
               | 
               | The entire Apollo program had a budget of $165.5 billion
               | (in 2021 dollars), over a 10 year program. $16.5 billion
               | per year. It's a big number, but it's absolutely dwarfed
               | by things like a $600bn military.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > The entire Apollo program had a budget of $165.5
               | billion (in 2021 dollars), over a 10 year program. $16.5
               | billion per year. It's a big number, but it's absolutely
               | dwarfed by things like a $600bn military.
               | 
               | Apollo was actually pretty close to the same GDP share
               | (2.5% of GDP annually) as the modern defense budget (3.1%
               | of GDP).
               | 
               | Inflation-adjusted numbers ignore that we have more
               | people _and_ more value produced per capita now than in
               | the 1960s.
        
             | LadyCailin wrote:
             | Related: the term "The Adjacent Possible". I first heard it
             | here: https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/cautionary-tales/the-
             | false-d...
        
             | fn-mote wrote:
             | As a counterpoint: NASA has an _extremely_ careful process
             | and their success rate is high. It's expensive, though, and
             | you have to develop an engineering process that supports
             | it.
             | 
             | When you're sending a probe to Mars, the trial runs are
             | very expensive. They spend a lot of time making sure that
             | the mission will be successful. I'm skeptical that anywhere
             | near the same level of care is going into the private
             | missions, but I the reason is cost, not that they can't
             | bootstrap themselves up with Earth-environment
             | experimentation.
             | 
             | Yes, I'm aware at least one of the Mars probe missions
             | totally failed. I don't think that detracts from the
             | overall point. They weren't screwing up a bunch of missions
             | before they got one right.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | It appears that the money spent to ensure a one-off
               | success is far more than the sum of all the costs of the
               | failures of SpaceX.
        
       | eternalban wrote:
       | 6 landing attempts, _all_ successful, late 60s technology:
       | mission    launch             land                days since last
       | successful landing        ---------------------------------------
       | ------------------------------        Apollo 11  July 16, 1969
       | July 20, 1969        -        Apollo 12  November 14, 1969
       | November 24, 1969    126        Apollo 14  January 31, 1971
       | February 9, 1971     431        Apollo 15  July 26, 1971
       | August 7, 1971       272        Apollo 16  April 16, 1972
       | April 27, 1972       347        Apollo 17  December 7, 1972
       | December 19, 1972    316
        
         | propogandist wrote:
         | has any of the recent attempts to the moon given us footage of
         | the lunar lander and other machinery that was left behind from
         | the prior missions?
         | 
         | this would easily put the conspiracy theories to bed
        
           | infradig wrote:
           | Yes
        
             | hgsgm wrote:
             | And No to the second question.
        
           | mensetmanusman wrote:
           | You can see the stuff left behind from earth, especially the
           | retro reflectors.
        
           | st_goliath wrote:
           | > has any of the recent attempts to the moon given us footage
           | of the lunar lander and other machinery that was left behind
           | from the prior missions?
           | 
           | Yes, e.g. LRO launched in 2009
           | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Reconnaissance_Orbiter)
           | 
           | > this would easily put the conspiracy theories to bed
           | 
           | no, you are dealing with people who nit pick data, rejecting
           | anything that does not support their position as falsified.
           | 
           | Attempts at reasoning are in my experience often met with
           | emotion and ad hominem responses (e.g. the classic comparison
           | to species of Ovis). Logic does not apply here.
        
           | freddie_mercury wrote:
           | The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter from 2009 sent back
           | pictures, yes.
           | 
           | It clearly didn't put the conspiracy theories to bed.
        
         | dgrin91 wrote:
         | All with a much bigger budget & many more people working on it.
         | 
         | Oh and it wasn't all success. Apollo 13 was a near miss. Apollo
         | 1 had fatalities. Several other apollo missions has near
         | misses. It was a very high risk operation.
        
         | joshuahedlund wrote:
         | Yeah but 1) that ignores the failed unmanned attempts that came
         | before these, 2) these were all manned. I could see it being
         | "easier" to land when you are manually adjusting your descent
         | than when you are entirely relying on sensors and preprogrammed
         | behavior. (Apollo 11 literally would have crashed if Armstrong
         | hadn't veered off course to find a smoother landing site)
        
         | elteto wrote:
         | Those were supported by a 400k people workforce, a basically
         | unlimited budget, and the political and moral support of the
         | most powerful nation on Earth.
         | 
         | I'm not trying to discount Apollo here, I myself can barely
         | comprehend their achievement at their time. But the magnitude
         | of the effort was much much larger than this one mission.
         | 
         | And let's not forget Grissom, White and Chaffee. NASA was _not_
         | on a successful path pre Apollo 1, as shown by the post-
         | disaster analysis reports. Speculating here, but most likely we
         | would not have gone to the Moon had Apollo 1 not happened.
         | 
         | Space is _incredibly_ hard.
        
         | Silverback_VII wrote:
         | the big elephant in the room.
        
           | eternalban wrote:
           | .
        
           | Dah00n wrote:
           | Which? Apollo 13?
        
         | messe wrote:
         | It seems a bit disingenuous to omit Apollo 13, which failed on
         | the way to the moon. The fact that it failed well before the
         | landing attempt, speaks to the difficulty of even getting to
         | the point where you can consider a landing.
        
           | eternalban wrote:
           | That's your opinion. I don't consider it "disingenuous",
           | rather focusing on the act of getting a manned lander from
           | orbit down to the surface of the moon. 6 tries, 6 successes.
        
             | messe wrote:
             | That's completely fair, it's definitely just opinion as to
             | what to include. Getting to lunar orbit can reasonably be
             | considered a separate challenge to landing, so it might
             | make sense to separate them.
             | 
             | In that case though, I think Apollo 10 should at least be
             | mentioned in some capacity, as it was a dress rehearsal
             | that came within 16km of the lunar surface, and tested much
             | of the lander's systems. Not listed as a failure or
             | success, just mentioned, as it's a very relevant test.
        
       | emmelaich wrote:
       | Hardly saying it's easy but ...
       | 
       | > _What makes landing on the Moon so difficult is the number of
       | variables to consider_
       | 
       | Compared to Earth, surely it's easier. Less terrain difference,
       | lower gravity. It's getting there and the remoteness is what
       | makes it hard.
        
         | Delk wrote:
         | On the other hand, there's no atmosphere on the Moon to speak
         | of, so you actually have to slow down using propulsion against
         | the gravity for a soft landing. Heat from the atmospheric entry
         | when getting back to the Earth is certainly a concern but the
         | atmosphere also takes care of the vast majority of slowing the
         | descent (or ~all of it, if you count the use of parachutes at
         | the end).
        
         | TeMPOraL wrote:
         | Earth gives you a stupidly wide margin of error, where the Moon
         | gives you none (and Mars very little) - because of its dense
         | atmosphere. Landing on a world with an atmosphere means there
         | is a passive force that tries to get you stop (relative to the
         | surrounding medium). So, as long as you survive the hell of
         | reentry, you can help yourself with lifting surfaces and
         | parachutes. In contrast, on the Moon, you have to zero out your
         | velocity at exactly the right moment. Do it too late? Crash. Do
         | it too early? Crash. Run out of fuel just a little bit too
         | fast? Crash.
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | > you have to zero out your velocity at exactly the right
           | moment.
           | 
           | Not quite. You can compensate with a landing gear that can
           | survive your terminal speed going to zero very quickly and
           | absorb the extra energy.
           | 
           | The math is much simpler on the Moon because there is no
           | atmosphere.
        
           | bitL wrote:
           | Dumb laser distance measurement should solve that easily for
           | you. You can literally use some very basic math with thruster
           | output based on your downward distance/speed.
        
             | dexwiz wrote:
             | What if you kick up a bunch of dust?
        
               | bitL wrote:
               | That would be very near the surface and with 10x lower
               | gravity one could afford some error.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | With 1/10 gravity dust also goes quite a lot higher.
               | That's on top of lack of atmosphere letting dust float
               | higher. Not to mention, there's going to be a lot more
               | dust to kick up.
               | 
               | Anyway, the easiest way to get a feel for these things is
               | to play some Kerbal Space Program. Try doing some moon
               | flights. You'll quickly realize that the part of the
               | mission that feels easiest on the home planet (landing)
               | also feels the hardest on atmosphere-less bodies, and
               | vice versa (e.g. taking off, or slowing for landing).
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | Sure. The problem is delta-v. If you zero out too late, you
             | crash, but if you zero our too soon, you'll likely run out
             | of fuel and either crash or won't be able to take off or
             | otherwise complete the full mission.
             | 
             | Managing delta-v is half of what makes a Moon landing
             | require precision. An atmosphere can let you ignore this
             | half to a degree (depending on specifics of
             | vehicle/mission).
        
             | hgsgm wrote:
             | But you need to calibrate that to extremely high tolerance.
             | That's harder than not needing to care at all.
        
             | fooker wrote:
             | It's not that simple.
             | 
             | What happens when you over-compensate with the thruster?
             | 
             | Sometimes you can recover from that, sometimes not.
        
           | hgsgm wrote:
           | People go to the moon for the food not the atmosphere. ;-)
        
             | ithkuil wrote:
             | Bring your own atmosphere!
        
             | kwhitefoot wrote:
             | Time to watch A Grand Day Out with Wallace and Gromit
             | again!
        
         | kryptiskt wrote:
         | Earth is pretty easy to do if you do it the simplest way, via
         | atmospheric braking all the way down. You have to have a heat
         | shield and parachutes, but if you have the equipment the
         | atmospheric braking doesn't require any fancy calculations
         | besides getting the entrance angle right (so you don't bounce
         | off into space or burn up by going too steep).
         | 
         | Mars is probably the worst of both worlds, you have a thin
         | atmosphere that is a nuisance but not very good for braking.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | AbsoluteCabbage wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
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