[HN Gopher] Mastodon is doomed?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Mastodon is doomed?
        
       Author : bpierre
       Score  : 218 points
       Date   : 2023-04-26 14:09 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (justingarrison.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (justingarrison.com)
        
       | duxup wrote:
       | I don't care about the title.
       | 
       | The opening of this article really applies to me. I don't want to
       | manage a social network. I don't want to have to worry about the
       | stability, politics, drama of the network I chose and so on...
       | 
       | Moderation, even if imperfect, is a big selling point for me,
       | even if I don't like to think about it being so.
        
         | madeofpalk wrote:
         | just go join mastodon.social then.
        
       | masukomi wrote:
       | > All of those "features" come with with a heavy price--
       | responsibility. Running your own instance is increadibly time
       | consuming and difficult to understand how to secure and scale.
       | 
       | Huh. I didn't it difficult to understand how to click the "Buy
       | Now" button on masto.host I spent about 5 minutes a month
       | "running" it which is to say, responding to the maybe 1 request
       | by my users to block an account / server.
       | 
       | I spend less by letting him do it, and i don't have to deal with
       | securing it or scaling it.
        
       | criddell wrote:
       | > With no income potential.
       | 
       | Why is there no income potential? It seems to me that if Mastodon
       | grows, there's lots of income potential.
        
         | prmoustache wrote:
         | I guess what he means is that the software itself doesn't
         | provide any management for payment/subscription for access or
         | features nor any advertising management.
        
         | rvz wrote:
         | > It seems to me that if Mastodon grows, there's lots of income
         | potential.
         | 
         | That is 7 years of "If", and all we get is instance takeovers,
         | [0] where companies buy and own the users on multiple instances
         | from the admins.
         | 
         | If you are an admin with 1M registered users, you can sell them
         | to the highest bidder. If you are a user, you get nothing.
         | 
         | So much for the nonsense of _" Social networking that's not for
         | sale"_ as a tag line.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mask-network-
         | acquir...
        
       | nologic01 wrote:
       | Mastodon (both the software and the communities around it) is the
       | first successful mammal in a world of dinosaurs.
       | 
       | The challenges highlighted in the post feel generally true but
       | the conclusion of it being doomed doesnt follow.
       | 
       | What you have in the broader fediverse and its protocols is a
       | alternative set of blueprints for building online interaction
       | spaces. All transparent, open source and not predicated on
       | obscene business models (gulping the planet's entirety of private
       | data) in order to survive.
       | 
       | Dinosaurs will continue roaming the digital Pangaea for a while
       | but it is their gene pool that is doomed. They actually face all
       | the same issues in essence, but are considerably less nimble in
       | coming up with viable adaptations.
       | 
       | Will people launching mastodon instances in vast numbers in five
       | years? Will it be an elixir bonfire? Maybe a pythonic AI
       | fediverse? I don't know what will evolve. But that meteor on the
       | sky is harbinger of major changes coming up.
        
       | lemiffe wrote:
       | I had the same issue described in the article... how do you
       | choose a community?
       | 
       | It was the first question I had when looking into Mastodon, and a
       | few minutes in I closed the tabs.
       | 
       | I don't want to choose a community, I want a single place/domain
       | I rely on, I don't care if the backend is decentralised, I want
       | the entry as a new user to be as low as possible, I need to
       | understand the product in a few sentences.
       | 
       | They lost me as a potential user, I wonder how many more they
       | lost. That entry barrier (just as with UX / registration forms)
       | has to be as low as possible.
        
         | xaduha wrote:
         | If you think in these terms you're better off staying on
         | Twitter and that's completely fine.
        
           | websitejanitor wrote:
           | Ordinary people will sign up for Bluesky instead of Mastodon.
           | Removing friction is absolutely essential to growing a user
           | base.
           | 
           | Not everyone finds value in signaling how technical they are
           | by overcoming/dealing with FOSS jank
        
         | ahelwer wrote:
         | If choosing one of several instances requires too high of
         | activation energy then that legitimately is a "you" problem.
         | You've circumscribed your own abilities to such an extent that
         | it limits you to centralized for-profit social networks.
         | 
         | > They lost me as a potential user
         | 
         | Since mastodon instances don't profit off of users (actually
         | they cost money), this isn't really a tragedy. You're
         | approaching mastodon with a customer mentality. This isn't a
         | sale being made! Nobody is losing out on profiting off your
         | time & attention! This is you choosing whether you want to keep
         | feeding from the intentionally-insanity-causing trough of
         | social networks that monetize attention.
        
           | romwell wrote:
           | >If choosing one of several instances requires too high of
           | activation energy then that legitimately is a "you" problem.
           | 
           | No it's not.
           | 
           | The reasons why were outlined in the article, but I'll re-
           | iterate them:
           | 
           | 1. Choosing a community has long-lasting consequences for the
           | user:
           | 
           | -a: Losing an account due to server being unstable or unable
           | to keep up with growth is a risk;
           | 
           | -b: Choice of community determines the user's ability to
           | communicate with other users, due to the community
           | whitelist/blacklist nature of moderation. Join a "wrong"
           | community, good luck being seen by anyone;
           | 
           | 2. Choice of a server is supposed to reflect the _identity_
           | of the user, and they will be treated differently _on the
           | entire network_ depending on which community they join
           | 
           | -a: The moderators of the instance you join can kick you off
           | _the entire network_ for violating the rules of _that
           | community_ , even if your activity is _elsewhere_ ;
           | 
           | -b: In addition to other users not being able to _interact_
           | with you at all if your instance is blacklisted by the admins
           | of another instance, you will be judged by others depending
           | on which instance you join - so you need to know what
           | reputation the users of a community have on the network
           | _before_ joining the network
           | 
           | -c: Instance admins have _complete control over your account_
           | , including the ability to read your messages and kick you
           | off the network because of things you say in your
           | communications, so the user needs to know _the reputation of
           | the admins on the network_ before they join it
           | 
           | >> They lost me as a potential user
           | 
           | >Since mastodon instances don't profit off of users (actually
           | they cost money), this isn't really a tragedy.
           | 
           | Oh right, why does a _social network_ need users for, after
           | all?
           | 
           | Are you kidding me? It _is_ a tragedy for a social network if
           | nobody uses it.
           | 
           | Social network users aren't just _customers_ - they are also
           | _the product_ , part of the value proposition. Both in their
           | identities and the content they create.
           | 
           | Mastodon has far less to offer by design, so it's a no-go for
           | me.
           | 
           | You can say "oh what a tragedy", but I'm easily in the top 1%
           | of users on reddit with nonzero karma by either post/comment
           | karma/number of comments/amount of text typed; so people like
           | me are what keeps a platform alive.
           | 
           | Because we give others a reason to log in.
           | 
           | And since choosing an instance effectively means _choosing an
           | audience_ - yes, it _is_ a hurdle for _content creators in
           | particular_ , and your dismissive attitude is an indicator
           | that it's not an issue that is understood well by fans of the
           | platform.
           | 
           | Which is why it's doomed.
        
             | yborg wrote:
             | >Which is why it's doomed.
             | 
             | Welp, time to get the T-shirts made. "Mastodon : Doomed
             | Since 2016. No seriously, it's doomed."
        
             | ahelwer wrote:
             | Some people are fundamentally product-brained and fail to
             | metabolize the concept of federated social media. That's
             | fine, it's better without them.
             | 
             | > You can say "oh what a tragedy", but I'm easily in the
             | top 1% of users on reddit with nonzero karma by either
             | post/comment karma/number of comments/amount of text typed;
             | so people like me are what keeps a platform alive.
             | 
             | I'm sorry but I audibly laughed when I read this.
             | 
             | Mastodon is where you go to hang out with friends,
             | colleagues, and fellow hobbyists. You go there to have a
             | good time and learn from others. People obsessed with
             | building their personal brand or audience or upvote score
             | embody much of what people hate about other forms of social
             | media. The platform is much improved without them.
        
       | tedivm wrote:
       | I'm all for valid criticism, but this read more like a rant (a
       | rather long one at that). I think it's interesting that they used
       | hachyderm as an example of why things don't scale, when that
       | organization has managed to build a robust platform and nonprofit
       | based off of user contributions.
        
       | kornhole wrote:
       | So many people are saying that picking an instance is just too
       | difficult. Let's just create a random picker like a Roulette
       | wheel of all open instances for those people. Moving instances
       | later is easy.
        
       | skee8383 wrote:
       | "The reality is people don't want to pick their favorite
       | community, running an instance is expensive and complicated, and
       | owning your data isn't a product feature."
       | 
       | This is the problem that affects all federated/decentralized
       | projects. Same thing with Urbit. No one wants to keep their
       | computer running 24/7 to support a network. and no one wants to
       | bare the financial burden of paying for a server to host a
       | community.
        
       | superkuh wrote:
       | There's no way to read a mastadon post without executing
       | javascript. There's not even a proxy like "nitter" is for twitter
       | to view posts as HTML. The "best" way is to read the entire feed
       | of a user by requesting it as json and parsing that with your
       | eyes. It's a terrible user experience. I mostly just ignore
       | mastadon servers post version 3.
        
       | bhouston wrote:
       | Mastodon is doing fine. It is vibrant with a ton of activity.
       | 
       | Mastodon could be more efficient. I think there must be problems
       | in their implementation. I think it needs a core rewrite.
       | 
       | I think of the current infrastructure of Mastodon as like old
       | Atom editor. Remember it?
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atom_(text_editor). It was super
       | extensible and ran on Electron, but it was slow and somewhat
       | unstable.
       | 
       | Then VSCode come around with much of the same benefits but it was
       | fast and stable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_Studio_Code
       | 
       | Before VSCode rose to prominent, many people would claim that an
       | Electron-based editor would never work and point to the problems
       | Atom had. But the issue was more specific to Atom and not just
       | inherent in the general idea.
       | 
       | We need the VSCode version of Mastodon so it can discard the
       | inefficiencies that it currently has and scale to the
       | opportunity.
        
         | Invictus0 wrote:
         | If the blogpost were talking about a forest, they would be
         | saying that the soil isn't fertile enough for proper forest
         | growth, and you would be talking about rewriting the tree's
         | DNA.
        
           | bhouston wrote:
           | Maybe but the first party mastodon iOS client pails in
           | comparison to the more professional offerings. I suspect the
           | mastodon server would similarly pop in comparison to a more
           | professional rewrite.
           | 
           | Remember they switched out the core engine of mongo as well
           | (wild tiger) and then it became a lot less of a joke.
        
             | Invictus0 wrote:
             | You're not getting it. Would rewriting MySpace or Google+
             | have made those things succeed? No, because speed was not
             | the main issue.
        
         | codemac wrote:
         | I think.. this argument is weak.
         | 
         | The more comparable example is whether or not BTC could replace
         | USD for day-to-day transactions. The answer is basically no, it
         | cannot. It can only process 7/second, due to how it works.
         | Thus, BTC will never become the daily transaction
         | infrastructure
         | 
         | Mastodon is similar. It will have severe scaling issues, as it
         | makes simple operations far far more complex to get federated
         | features that are more social than things like email. Just like
         | crypto shenanigans, basically additional infrastructure will
         | need to be built.
        
         | timeon wrote:
         | > it was fast and stable
         | 
         | There is no huge difference between Atom and VSCode. I was
         | using Atom. It worked. It was popular. But Microsoft could
         | afford bigger momentum - and took it. Then I used VSCode. I
         | have noticed difference in speed only after I switched to
         | Sublime Text.
        
           | bhouston wrote:
           | I think you were not around when Atom was new? Being slow and
           | unstable was a very common complaint and at the time the main
           | solution was to switch to VSCode once it existed. Here is
           | some old reddit threads at the time that reflects the mood
           | very accurately:
           | 
           | https://www.reddit.com/r/Atom/comments/58nkn3/any_way_to_spe.
           | ..
           | 
           | https://www.reddit.com/r/Atom/comments/2i2xs6/atom_is_a_real.
           | ..
           | 
           | https://www.reddit.com/r/Atom/comments/7dfozc/why_is_atom_so.
           | ..
           | 
           | Even GitHub issues on Atom about it:
           | https://github.com/atom/atom/issues/10188
           | 
           | This is the reason why VSCode beat Atom, even though Atom I
           | think was released first.
        
         | lakomen wrote:
         | It's a censorship dystopia with rampant cancel culture. Nothing
         | is fine
        
           | bhouston wrote:
           | Run your own server and talk about anything you want. It is
           | up to others to want to also talk to you.
        
       | jszymborski wrote:
       | There are plenty of sustainable Mastodon instances that are run
       | by a cooperative of users. Social.coop has been running for ages
       | and is very active. Members pay a pay-what-you-can fee to join
       | the member-run coop. It works super well, and they always have a
       | surplus they're looking to reinvest.
       | 
       | I'm on a canadian coop instance that launched a few months ago
       | (@jszym@cosocial.ca). If you're a cannuck, consider joining!
        
       | dgellow wrote:
       | I don't want to hijack a mastodon thread for an alternative, but
       | because it is invite-only and still very new if people here want
       | to try out Bluesky, send me an email at: sam at elborai me. I
       | just got a whole bunch of invite codes and I'm happy sharing them
       | with fellow HNers.
       | 
       | It's late in my time zone, so don't expect a response before
       | 8-10h, but I read all my emails in the morning.
        
       | albertkinng wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | JustSomeNobody wrote:
       | That's a silly take. It all comes from the perspective that
       | Mastodon has to be the next big thing. This is BS. It can stay
       | small and serve those who choose to use it.
        
       | lakomen wrote:
       | Hachyderm.io is operated by an Ukrainian Faschist who censors any
       | truthful comments and bans people because of that on 1st
       | occurrence.
       | 
       | I ran my own instance and deleted it after 3 months. No one wants
       | to accept you as a relay. The only one who did accept was
       | Beckmeyer, good guy. But it had week long outages. Searching
       | Mastodon posts is impossible. There's a very strong cancel
       | culture on Mastodon instances. The main players control who can
       | and can speak freely.
       | 
       | It's all even more fucked up than Facebook and Twitter.
       | 
       | Add to that PITA upgrade procedures, and a 500 char limit per
       | post, which includes hashtags.
       | 
       | Absolutely ridiculous how this pos software made it so far.
        
         | pornel wrote:
         | Their policies seem good. It looks like you've broken their
         | rules, got banned, and you're continuing to be a dick about it.
         | 
         | https://community.hachyderm.io/docs/moderation/covenant/
         | 
         | Also please note that fascism is a specific ideology, not
         | merely a description for everyone who doesn't want you in their
         | community.
        
       | kernal wrote:
       | I can't help but draw parallels to Mastodon and the Year of Linux
       | on the desktop. There was no way Mastodon was ever going to
       | succeed due to the network effects.
        
       | weavie wrote:
       | What is the biggest resource bottleneck in Mastodon?
       | 
       | Like, are the certain design decisions that could be optimised to
       | make it more resource efficient? Is it just because it is written
       | in Ruby? Is there something inherent to ActivityPub that means it
       | has to use a lot of resources? Can work be done to make it
       | cheaper to run?
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | ActivityPub involves a HUGE number of HTTP requests. Every time
         | you create a post your server has to deliver that post via HTTP
         | to every other instance that has at least one of your followers
         | - this can quickly grow to hundreds of deliveries if you have a
         | few thousand followers.
         | 
         | Mastodon uses a Sidekiq queue and Ruby threads to handle these
         | deliveries.
         | 
         | I have a strong hunch that switching to delivery through a more
         | efficient mechanism - async IO, or a lower level language -
         | could have a big impact there.
         | 
         | My web browser doesn't blink at loading 100 resources to render
         | a web page, so delivering a few hundred HTTP requests shouldn't
         | be impossibly hard to scale, even when you take retries into
         | account.
        
       | zimpenfish wrote:
       | > Running your own instance is increadibly time consuming and
       | difficult to understand how to secure and scale.
       | 
       | I mean, sure, maybe, if you're running the huge and clunky
       | Mastodon source. Akkoma is much easier. GotoSocial is even easier
       | again. Honk, assuming you don't need MastoAPI support, is even
       | easier still since it comes bundled with its own UI.
       | 
       | It'd be easier to take the article seriously if it wasn't
       | blinkered from the get-go.
        
       | mberlove wrote:
       | Probably like a number of users here, I used mastodon "before it
       | was cool" -- and it was never in reality an "alt twitter", it was
       | _its own_ microblogging service, with niche communities, and with
       | its own set of pros and cons.
       | 
       | IMHO the hopes of an influx of users to _make_ it the next
       | Twitter doesn 't change the fundament of what Mastodon
       | represents.
       | 
       | The author's statement that Mastodon's CEO has "no plans for
       | monotization [sic]" does not, in my take, reduce the benefits of
       | open-source & federated communities one iota.
        
         | sdfghswe wrote:
         | Mastodon's is decentralized, why would you monotize it?
        
       | prmoustache wrote:
       | The biggest struggle to me for admins will be spam management.
        
       | timmb wrote:
       | I feel the real problem with Mastodon is that there's no way to
       | reclaim an identity if a server goes down. The idea of a
       | fediverse is to be robust against instances collapsing, but it
       | seems the only way to move server is to leave a pointer on the
       | old server.
       | 
       | Instead, you could put a public key on your profile and keep a
       | local backup of your data and private key. Then if your instance
       | dies or you get booted out (there will always be tyrants and
       | schizms) you can still set up shop somewhere else and ping your
       | old followers with a signed message.
       | 
       | Right now it's like a city with a lot of bars which is great
       | except you can't leave and go to a different one with the same
       | face.
        
         | throwaway689236 wrote:
         | Nostr solves this problem, your identity is defined by a
         | private+public key pair, you own your account and history
         | instead of the node admin.
        
         | basscomm wrote:
         | > I feel the real problem with Mastodon is that there's no way
         | to reclaim an identity if a server goes down. The idea of a
         | fediverse is to be robust against instances collapsing, but it
         | seems the only way to move server is to leave a pointer on the
         | old server.
         | 
         | Email has the same problem, but is it really a problem?
        
         | funOtter wrote:
         | I think that you're describing Nostr.
        
       | gnramires wrote:
       | I think there's a point in particular that's not true:
       | 
       | > If the instance you're on is compromised you will lose your
       | identity because private keys are stored as part of the instance.
       | No private keys, no identity, no portability.
       | 
       | I don't think it's quite so bad, although of course a server
       | vulnerability is bad: you can have an email account as a backup.
       | That's the way many services have kept secure: you can invalidate
       | the old password after a breach and email users a new one. In the
       | worst case, you could try to prove to moderators you're really
       | the account owner. However, the most important point is that it's
       | just an account: you can just create a new one, and be mostly
       | fine (after letting people know you've moved). In the case of the
       | breach mentioned before, a notice could be left on inactive post-
       | breach accounts.
       | 
       | There's not really too much data you'd care about that isn't
       | public already, and you can do regular backups in case there is
       | (private messages, I guess?). It might be nice to add some auto
       | backup functionality to some cloud service I guess.
        
       | fabiofzero wrote:
       | VCs hate Mastodon (actually the federation) because they can't
       | control it. Hence this post. Nothing to see here.
        
       | SkyMarshal wrote:
       | It seems like most Twitter power users who prioritize easy setup,
       | UX, and audience access, and who don't really care about
       | federation, are migrating to Substack Notes.
        
       | xwdv wrote:
       | For me the decision of having to choose a server always made
       | Mastodon a non-starter for me. Just requires too much activation
       | energy to even get started.
        
         | kornhole wrote:
         | It is about freedom and choice. If you don't want that or are
         | unable, there are plenty of platforms that make the choices for
         | you.
        
       | brucethemoose2 wrote:
       | Yall are looking at this the wrong way.
       | 
       | Mastadon is a bad Twitter replacement. But with a few tweaks, it
       | is a good Discord and Telegram replacement. The inevitable
       | Discord/Telegram monetization squeeze is going to be a huge event
       | for Mastadon.
        
         | artificial wrote:
         | How much do you pay for Mastadon? How much does it cost to
         | host?
        
           | cdelsolar wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
           | brucethemoose2 wrote:
           | For a big former Discord group? Probably a lot.
           | 
           | But many Discord (and some Telegram) admins already self host
           | auxiliary stuff and solicit community donations for funding.
           | TBH they would probably _like_ running their own instance as
           | a hobby.
        
       | kornhole wrote:
       | Running your own instance is not difficult. I recommend
       | installing Yunohost.org on a $5/month VPS or some hardware you
       | have laying around such as a single board computer. Installing
       | apps from the Yunohost catalog is like installing from an app
       | store. You can try different apps like Akkoma, Mastodon, Calckey,
       | and others until you find the one you like. Then Yunohost makes
       | maintenance and upgrade easy thank to the community of people
       | maintaining the scripts that do everything behind the scenes.
        
       | neallindsay wrote:
       | I clicked through expecting to see a blog post from six years
       | ago, but according to the timestamp this post is only a couple of
       | days old.
        
       | Lolaccount wrote:
       | My n=1 experience has been far better using Mastodon than
       | twitter.
       | 
       | I used to check the Twitter Explore page without logging in, just
       | see what was going down. But now that they've 'bodged' that up
       | too, they've released me from any reason to go back. Thank you,
       | Elon.
       | 
       | It's a relief to encounter generally "real" and/or "interesting"
       | people (who are the kind of people to persist on Mastodon)
       | instead of political mudslingers, blue check twitter maximalists,
       | Elon d riders, etc.
       | 
       | Just a better experience all around.
       | 
       | Mastodon feels a bit like the old bulletin boards used to feel
       | like - "just over there dealing with its own niche in a calm and
       | kind of fun way ... not the centre of the universe or trying to
       | be this or that...".
       | 
       | And I'm thankful for it.
        
       | TrevorFSmith wrote:
       | A useless generalization like "people don't want this" is a great
       | example of why there's room in the world for a federated network
       | of small instances. Humanity is not the Borg. The folks who
       | obviously do want something different than a centralized network
       | run for profit can go on happily using federations while people
       | who want a new Twitter with a new board of directors calling the
       | shots can go use one of those. It's ok for both to exist and to
       | serve different purposes. Really.
        
       | senko wrote:
       | I don't know. I'm happy paying $12/yr ($1/mo) for an account. If
       | operation costs are half that, a few thousand users can make a
       | nice side gig hosting this.
       | 
       | Why does everything need to scale exponentially or it is doomed?
       | Federation avoids the "winner take all" trap.
       | 
       | I don't know if Mastodon is going to grow or if something else
       | (Bluesky?) will replace it, or if we'll just all stay on Twitter.
       | 
       | But it doesn't seem to me like it's doomed.
        
       | nemo44x wrote:
       | It's funny watching all this because we had all this in the 90's
       | and early 2k's and went away from it for a reason. Anyone
       | remember Hotline or Caracho? These were client/server/tracker
       | software for federated communities. If you wanted to host a
       | server which had chat, messaging, forum, files, etc you'd
       | download the server software and run on your computer using
       | something like DYNDNS to keep your host address static. You'd
       | register with a tracker so that others could find you. Trackers
       | could ban servers they didn't like by not listing them. People
       | running client software would connect to a tracker to get a list
       | of servers and connect to them if allowed. The server operator
       | could have a free for all or create privileged accounts. It was
       | great.
       | 
       | But it can't scale and it's too complex for most people. People
       | left these types of networks for Facebook, Twitter, etc.
       | 
       | Going back to this, or a variation of it, is simply regressive.
       | It's the wrong direction.
        
       | mg wrote:
       | I don't know enough about ActivityPub to be sure, but it seems
       | that the "push" format is the problem?
       | 
       | If user U1 on server C1 subscribes to user U2 on server C2, does
       | that mean when U2 posts, C2 sends the post to C1, independent of
       | wether U1 is online or not?
       | 
       | If C1 can only request the updates while U1 is online, then the
       | Fediverse should scale just like RSS.
       | 
       | I never heard anybody saying that RSS is doomed because of
       | scaling issues.
        
         | mariusor wrote:
         | > the "push" format is the problem
         | 
         | I mean it only worked for email since the dawn of the internet.
         | :P
         | 
         | But ActivityPub has no concept of "online" for actors, the
         | activities that have an actor in their recipients list will end
         | up in their inbox no matter what.
        
         | rektide wrote:
         | The same net quantity of data would likely be sent so I'm not
         | sure what the advantage would be.
         | 
         | There's be some savings from users just never signing in &
         | never pulling. But also, server c2 also has hundreds or
         | thousands of other users too. If any of those subscribe to u1,
         | that traffic would have been sent either way.
         | 
         | So the hypothetical unread messages advantage of pull rapidly
         | erodes at any kind of scale. I'm not sure what the gain might
         | be.
         | 
         | One nice thing about rss is that it's relatively cacheable.
         | CDNs are well optimized. Honestly I think it's mostly just bad
         | implementations, that figuring out what messages to pushing
         | data out ought be fairly optimizable & not terrible to scale
         | out effectively. But being efficient & smart about it does take
         | some though.
        
       | withinrafael wrote:
       | > If mastodon is to be the poster child of the fediverse it needs
       | to drastically simplify the requirements to run and maintain an
       | instance.
       | 
       | Completely agree.
       | 
       | I tried to self-host Cloudflare's Wildebeest as part of the "own
       | your own identity and content" dream and it was a complete
       | disaster. It's an incomplete amalgamation of alpha-quality and
       | production Cloudflare services and code with no real roadmap. It
       | doesn't install properly out of the box using their own
       | documentation and most clients will try to use some
       | Mastodon/ActivityPub API that isn't implemented and fail. So
       | unless you're looking to seriously hack on its codebase, I'd
       | recommend staying away for a few years.
        
       | huslage wrote:
       | Whataboutism is a powerful drug.
        
       | johnklos wrote:
       | All of those "features" come with with a heavy price--
       | responsibility. Running your own instance is increadibly time
       | consuming and difficult to understand how to secure and scale. It
       | also can be quite expensive if it grows to any meaningful amount
       | of use.
       | 
       | I think it's important to note, which I think the article fails
       | to do, that this isn't a problem with other Fediverse software,
       | but something unique to Mastodon:
       | 
       | 1) Ruby on Rails is, well, bad. It was in the past, but I hoped
       | things had changed. I tried running Mastodon, and in the two
       | weeks I was playing with it late last year there were two
       | dependency updates which broke Mastodon, until Mastodon was
       | updated. It's untenable, and it certainly adds to the idea that
       | running your own is "increadibly time consuming", if you have to
       | worry about breaking things any time any dependency gets updated.
       | 
       | 2) The failure of Ruby on Rails leads to insecurity. Most people
       | don't update because of #1 and just let things run. This is all
       | fine and dandy until there are real security issues, at which
       | time people sometimes panic, update and break things, or there's
       | a compromise.
       | 
       | 3) Mastodon (and Ruby on Rails) isn't performant. A decent modern
       | server, particularly one that could be bought for $5,000, should
       | easily be able to handle 30,000 users, if one were to extrapolate
       | from some of the articles written about Fediverse hosting... But
       | the articles showing very good performance aren't about Mastodon.
       | Some specifically talk about migrating to other software because
       | of Mastodon performance.
       | 
       | So is it time consuming? Yes, because it's slow, breaks easily
       | and doesn't scale well. I think it's demonstrably true that other
       | software (Pleroma, for example, or Akkoma for those of us who
       | aren't fans of the Pleroma admins) is faster (and therefore
       | scales much better), isn't remotely as fragile (and therefore can
       | be kept up to date and secured with ease), and less time
       | consuming (most updates take literally a minute or two).
       | 
       | Perhaps the author should consider the idea that the failure of
       | Mastodon is not the same thing as the failure of the Fediverse
       | precisely because other options exist.
        
       | wnevets wrote:
       | From what I can tell developers and the infosec community moved
       | to mastodon, that's good enough for me. I don't have to everyone
       | on the planet using the same social media service for me to use
       | it.
        
       | dickhardt wrote:
       | The OP conflates the fediverse with Mastodon, and my
       | understanding of his key point is that it is doomed because
       | Mastodon is complicated to run. As the operator of
       | https://press.coop, I agree. Mastodon is 10 yr old web tech (Ruby
       | on Rails with Postgres) that does not take advantage of modern
       | cloud architectures. (The streaming service is written in nodejs
       | and is efficient and just works)
       | 
       | But software continues to evolve. There are numerous other
       | software projects on the fediverse, Cloudflare's Wildebeest being
       | an example of a more efficient, and easier to manage
       | implementation. Crowdfunding has become a common means for
       | instances to be funded. It is still early days for the fediverse,
       | and the pace of innovation continues to accelerate. Remember that
       | Twitter was twttr when it launched, and was an SMS based app.
       | Flickr was a Flash app.
        
       | drivebyops wrote:
       | Substack is the real 2008 Twitter alternative, having more people
       | in a platform is a anti-feature
        
       | rg111 wrote:
       | > Communities are not siloed independent bubbles. People are Venn
       | diagrams of lots of communities and interests. Selecting a
       | username can be difficult, deciding which community you want as
       | part of your identity--even if you can change it--is too much.
       | The act of choosing a server has kept more than a few people away
       | from Mastodon.
       | 
       | I don't want people to be Venn diagrams. I want communities to be
       | a Venn diagram. Like subreddits, or FB Groups, or Discord
       | servers.
       | 
       | I have always been a person with many interests. And Mastodon
       | doesn't cut it for me.
       | 
       | The way I find new reddit subs in comments or come to know about
       | new FB groups from friends- is missing in Mastodon.
       | 
       | Why should I must _choose_ among Open Source, Math and Machine
       | Learning? I like all of them. I should be able to see posts from
       | all communities on a single feed.
       | 
       | It is also not as Twitter or Instagram. Where everything is
       | people centric but you get suggestions and shares from different
       | interest groups.
        
       | mcv wrote:
       | I don't know about Mastodon, but Friendica has been a smashing
       | success from my perspective. My feed is full of interesting
       | people, many of whom are on Mastodon. It doesn't have to be for
       | everybody; it's pretty good the way it is.
       | 
       | That said, I think a Fediverse account should be standard with an
       | ISP account just like email. Pay your ISP to maintain the server
       | just like they maintain everything else you already you already
       | use. And if you use your account for threats and harassment, your
       | ISP knows who you are.
        
       | rvz wrote:
       | It appears that the official Mastodon app has crowned
       | 'mastodon.social' as the default on the official Mastodon app.
       | [0] So it has been admitted that asking the user to 'choose a
       | server' was a disastrous thing to do for adoption which confuses
       | the user from the start.
       | 
       | Hence this 'default' it also means the centralization of
       | mastodon.social will accelerate, federation never mattered in the
       | first place and risking the same problem that happened with
       | pawoo.net, mstdn.jp and and mastodon.cloud all acquired under one
       | company. [0] So the bigger you get, the bigger you are as a
       | takeover target.
       | 
       | If the instance is too small, will risk getting DDoSed very
       | easily and won't be able to handle an influx of new users and
       | would have to close signups. If it is too big, it risks not being
       | able to scale and needs to re-centralize with Cloudflare and the
       | instance will receive lots of take over attempts from those with
       | deep pockets.
       | 
       | Eventually, the owners will cave in. Just like they did with a
       | 'default' instance.
       | 
       | Do not tell me that you will reject someone willing to take over
       | an instance with lots of users for hundreds of millions of
       | dollars.
       | 
       | [0] https://mstdn.social/@feditips/110233282251253677
       | 
       | [1] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mask-network-
       | acquir...
        
       | nrvn wrote:
       | > Running your own instance is increadibly time consuming and
       | difficult to understand how to secure and scale.
       | 
       | Tell this to phpbb/vbulletin/whatever forum admins. A huge chunk
       | of those forums have been up and alive for 20 years and more.
       | Yes, they are probably not super secure, do not support
       | horizontal autoscaling and are not replicated across multiple
       | datacenters. But who cares if they work and give the sense of
       | community?..
       | 
       | Another example would be jabber/xmpp servers. Btw, google chat
       | and facebook messenger were xmpp-based meaning you could chat
       | with anyone outside of then-not-so-walled gardens. But this is a
       | completely different story.
        
       | transfire wrote:
       | One of the reasons we need faster upload speeds, so people can
       | host from home.
        
         | JustSomeNobody wrote:
         | CGNAT needs to die as well.
        
           | mvanbaak wrote:
           | THIS!
        
         | zirgs wrote:
         | Many ISPs forbid web hosting from home.
        
         | poulpy123 wrote:
         | except that nobody wants to host its own server, just a
         | minority of minority of geeks
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | This seems pretty wild to me that for say a social network I
         | need fast upload speeds.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | turnsout wrote:
           | Once you implement a basic ActivityPub server, you realize
           | you're basically asking for a friendly DDoS. If you toot a
           | photo to 1000 followers, your server needs to blast it out to
           | every unique instance in that list of 1000, then ask for
           | whatever updates _they_ have. It 's not "efficient," but the
           | upside is that it's conceptually very simple.
        
             | zimpenfish wrote:
             | > If you toot a photo to 1000 followers, your server needs
             | to blast it out to every unique instance in that list of
             | 1000
             | 
             | I might be misunderstanding here but if you make a status
             | with a photo, it doesn't attach the literal bytes of the
             | photo but the URL to your local copy of the photo which
             | may, admittedly, by fetched 1000 times by those instances
             | if someone on each of those instances looks at it.
             | 
             | cf https://octodon.social/@pzmyers/110265584018863694 which
             | has the link //assets.octodon.social/media_attachments/file
             | s/110/265/581/155/000/717/original/0b24824d56920b79.jpeg
             | and also a preview link of https://assets.octodon.social/me
             | dia_attachments/files/110/26....
        
               | turnsout wrote:
               | Unfortunately, what happens is that (for some reason),
               | instances cache remote media. So if I'm on rando.zyx, it
               | will download and cache the image from octodon.social for
               | local rando.zyx users.
        
               | zimpenfish wrote:
               | Which is a very different situation to "blast out the
               | photo to 1000 instances".
               | 
               | But even then, not all of them fetch and cache media on
               | receipt of a status (e.g. mine don't) and they're not
               | fetching them at the same time according to my logs.
               | 
               | You may well still end up serving 1000 copies of the
               | photo (or even more if people aren't caching) but it's
               | 100% not "blast out the photo to 1000 instances when you
               | post" - it's much gentler.
        
               | KomoD wrote:
               | It's not just images either, it's the same with link
               | previews, so any link that gets posted will get visited
               | by the instances your instance is federated with.
               | 
               | Small example log: https://pastebin.com/raw/jYZ1z8dG
               | 
               | I've seen some cases where there's been 1000+ requests to
               | a site just because a link to it was posted.
        
               | zimpenfish wrote:
               | Now that is a problem. But people have suggested workable
               | solutions and hopefully at some point, the Mastodon
               | authors will pull their heads out of their hole and get
               | on with implementing something. I wouldn't hold my
               | breath, mind.
        
               | KomoD wrote:
               | Earlier today I posted a link to a video on my webserver,
               | all the instances hammered me so hard it maxed out my
               | 1gbps connection
        
               | zimpenfish wrote:
               | It's been an issue since 2017[1] (since moved to [2]) but
               | the discussion always devolves into "but what if someone
               | LIES in the federated preview??!!?!" bikeshedding.
               | 
               | [1] https://github.com/mastodon/mastodon/issues/4486
               | 
               | [2] https://github.com/mastodon/mastodon/issues/23662
        
             | bee_rider wrote:
             | It is a funny that from our point of view, sending out to
             | the internet has one flat cost. Most of my friends (people
             | who would be interested in my photos) live in the same
             | state as me. A bunch live in the same or adjacent towns...
        
         | afavour wrote:
         | Home upload speeds aren't holding that back. Hardware is.
         | 
         | What is the average social media user going to host their
         | Mastodon instance on? I wish it were possible to run mini-
         | servers on something like an Apple TV, goodness knows there's
         | enough CPU going spare there most of the time. Or that ISPs
         | shipped routers capable of it. But alas most people don't have
         | sufficiently open hardware just sitting around at home.
        
           | kornhole wrote:
           | Run Yunohost on any SBC or old laptop you have laying around.
           | That is what I do.
        
           | porkbeer wrote:
           | My upload speeds, that I pay 120/mo for, are under 300kb.
           | Boradband in america is largely a joke. I have only one
           | provider in my area under 200/mo.
        
           | zimpenfish wrote:
           | > What is the average social media user going to host their
           | Mastodon instance on?
           | 
           | A Raspberry Pi?
           | 
           | https://github.com/guysoft/PleromaPi
           | 
           | (Sadly no AkkomaPi yet, it seems.)
        
             | afavour wrote:
             | I love the idea of it. The average user is never going to
             | do it.
             | 
             | > Unzip the image and install it to an SD card
             | 
             | OK, you'll lose some people here but a lot could handle
             | that
             | 
             | > Configure your WiFi by editing pleromapi-wpa-
             | supplicant.txt
             | 
             | Aaand they're gone
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | Bit of a weird post.
       | 
       | "All of the 3rd party integrations are happening with
       | ActivityPub, not Mastodon."
       | 
       | That right there is the solution to most of the author's
       | complaints!
       | 
       | I for one would be completely satisfied with this outcome: I
       | don't care about Mastodon, I care about the Fediverse concept
       | generally.
       | 
       | Mainly I want a way of publishing and consuming short-form
       | content that's immune from being bought and ruined by a
       | capricious billionaire.
        
       | al2o3cr wrote:
       | If you don't know what PgBouncer or Sidkiq are in 2023         I
       | wouldn't invest a ton of time in learning them now.
       | 
       | Yeah, who needs those proven tools? I'm sure Justin can suggest
       | you an AWS alternative that'll 100% lock you in and then go
       | directly from "beta" to "unsupported legacy" after you adopt it.
       | Have fun! /s
        
       | sanity31415 wrote:
       | What we need is a common platform, an operating system for
       | building interoperable and scalable decentralized services. This
       | is exactly what we're building with https://docs.freenet.org/.
        
       | rsynnott wrote:
       | > It's only a matter of time until there will be a CVE found in
       | the official Mastodon software which will leave a vast majority
       | of instances vulnerable
       | 
       | It's only a matter of, er, four years ago, in fact:
       | https://www.cvedetails.com/product/59775/Joinmastodon-Mastod...
       | 
       | Also, by this reasoning, Wordpress is doomed; at peak Wordpress
       | averaged about one CVE _per week_. And yet Wordpress remains
       | stubbornly ubiquitous...
        
       | turnsout wrote:
       | The author doesn't seem to realize that it's not necessary for
       | Mastodon to reach the same scale as Twitter or Facebook. We might
       | be headed for a more pluralistic future, with a large chunk of
       | people on Mastodon, another big community on Bluesky, etc.
       | 
       | We're all so steeped in the recent past of monolithic centralized
       | social media platforms, but if we peek over our recency bias, we
       | can see that it wasn't always that way.
        
         | romwell wrote:
         | >The author doesn't seem to realize that it's not necessary for
         | Mastodon to reach the same scale as Twitter or Facebook. We
         | might be headed for a more pluralistic future, with a large
         | chunk of people on Mastodon, another big community on Bluesky,
         | etc.
         | 
         | Did you read the article? It's right there in the end:
         | 
         | >Mastodon will continue as a niche community and it will have
         | lots of happy users. I'm greatful for the admins that have
         | dedicated so much of their time running instances, and thank
         | you to the admins who shared their instance financial
         | information.
         | 
         | >If you love Mastodon I'm happy for you. The internet needs
         | bold bets and people to invest in them.
        
         | AtlasBarfed wrote:
         | The one key advantage centralized social/messaging has is spam
         | control. Of course that's because spam is unrealized and
         | unregulated advertising revenue that the platform doesn't
         | control.
         | 
         | How does Mastodon prevent itself from becoming email? I'm
         | unfamiliar with the design. Do you simply turtle your trust
         | with other servers?
         | 
         | One of the interesting things I haven't seen with advanced AI
         | is the antispam AI. I would love to have a semi-trustable
         | service that reviewed incoming numbers/messages and evaluated
         | them against expert level manipulation, propaganda,
         | advertising, and con techniques. Of course that then provides
         | access to the agent ...
         | 
         | You'd THINK facebook and google have advanced AI language
         | models for these given ChatGPT's abilities, but I've never seen
         | or heard anything like that. Then again, that would be customer
         | focused, and google and facebook are now more spam/con than
         | pro-consumer utility.
         | 
         | Ha, if ChatGPT is REALLY converging to the point of coding
         | actual systems (1-2 years maybe???), then I would like to
         | weaponize it to counter the api drift defense used by the
         | social media walled gardens.
         | 
         | No one has been able to truly integrate your social media
         | content across the walls. Because no integration stands the
         | constant drift of api interface. BUT, if chatgpt can constantly
         | adapt to the changes, you might be able to do it.
         | 
         | Consider that while the walled gardens can shift their APIs to
         | some degree, they can't shift them REALLY fast, because their
         | "actual" partners need some stability. So I might be able to AI
         | adapt-scrape from my sources and centralize better.
         | 
         | I don't think that is within ChatGPT's current abilities, but I
         | don't think it is that far.
         | 
         | "Turtling" : a defensive, cautious approach to expansion in RTS
         | and 4X games, rather than reckless expansion and "mixing it
         | up". In this context, you carefully whitelist nodes
         | conservatively, but you'll miss a lot of content and people.
        
           | tpm wrote:
           | > Do you simply turtle your trust with other servers?
           | 
           | Not sure what turtle means in this case, but spam is
           | currently less of a problem on mastodon (mastodon.world is
           | the instance I'm using) than on twitter. When the admins
           | actually care, they can solve it.
        
           | flohofwoe wrote:
           | I might be wrong, but I think you can't see anything from
           | anybody you're not following (e.g. if anybody spams your
           | timeline, just unfollow).
        
             | tpm wrote:
             | They can spam your posts with replies. Haven't seen that
             | yet though. Then it's up to the instance admins.
        
         | 98codes wrote:
         | And as someone that's recently left Twitter behind where that
         | would've been unthinkable a year ago -- it's clearer than ever
         | to me now that none of it matters. If I were to lose everything
         | on Mastodon tomorrow, oh well.
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | But the whole appeal of social networks is that _everyone_ is
         | there. No one likes to check 20 different apps to talk to 20
         | slightly different groups of people, or to follow 20 different
         | celebrities they like.
         | 
         | There's never really going to be such a thing as a thriving
         | small social network.
        
           | romwell wrote:
           | >There's never really going to be such a thing as a thriving
           | small social network.
           | 
           | You are saying this on _Hackernews_ , out of all places...
           | which is an example of one.
        
           | flohofwoe wrote:
           | Those social networks are all sitting on top of the same
           | internet, and _everybody_ is on the internet (e.g. there 's
           | no reason why different social networks shouldn't be able to
           | integrate with each other).
           | 
           | (I shudder in horror to think what email would look like if
           | it was invented today by some Silicon Valley techbro startup
           | - interoperability somehow isn't even considered as an option
           | anymore)
        
           | mejutoco wrote:
           | Everyone has email, but not everyone is on gmail, for
           | instance.
        
           | textfiles wrote:
           | Admin/Veteran of small social networks over the last 30 years
           | here. Yes there are.
        
             | turnsout wrote:
             | Definitely--there are so many thriving fora that were
             | around before Facebook, and will be full of activity long
             | after Meta has been delisted.
        
           | femiagbabiaka wrote:
           | There's this thing called IRC...
        
           | izzydata wrote:
           | That is then opposite of what I find appealing. Every
           | community I have ever been a part of on the internet has only
           | gotten worse and eventually unacceptably bad by growing too
           | large.
           | 
           | I also don't like the convergence of online identifies with
           | real identifies in communities which also tends to ruin the
           | point of an online community for me.
           | 
           | So having different groups for different purposes is
           | precisely what I do want and having every human on Earth on
           | one platform is the exact opposite of what I would want.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | By growing large you attract predators and parasites, you
             | must pay a very high price in moderation to removing this
             | spam and trolling. An individual/small group of individuals
             | fighting against every bad actor on the planet. By staying
             | smaller you are more likely to fall under a 'dark forest'.
             | You'll still be attacked by your local level trolls, but
             | the likelihood you'll be attacked worldwide is lessened.
        
           | xoac wrote:
           | Nope it's a side-effect of the current business model which
           | is to monetize attention at the biggest scale possible.
        
           | outime wrote:
           | It may be the whole appeal for you but for others it's a
           | deterrent.
        
           | naravara wrote:
           | > But the whole appeal of social networks is that everyone is
           | there. No one likes to check 20 different apps to talk to 20
           | slightly different groups of people, or to follow 20
           | different celebrities they like.
           | 
           | The nice thing about a federated system is that it's ONE app
           | to talk to 20 slightly different groups of people.
        
           | eropple wrote:
           | _> There 's never really going to be such a thing as a
           | thriving small social network._
           | 
           | Just because you're not on them doesn't mean they don't
           | exist.
           | 
           | I wouldn't namedrop the ones I like here because I like them
           | the way they are, but consider: there are _so many_ 100-200
           | member Discords with consistent and vibrant communities.
           | 
           | They're not trying to become hypermassive cash engines, but
           | that's okay and even good. That's a grim way to exist.
        
             | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
             | > there are so many 100-200 member Discords with consistent
             | and vibrant communities
             | 
             | Slack has a free tier too.
             | 
             | 90-days of history only, is as much a feature as it is a
             | bug. Idle "off-the record" talk with current and/or ex
             | colleagues in a bar after work isn't recorded indefinitely,
             | why should the online equivalent?
        
               | beardog wrote:
               | To have actual off the record, you need disappearing
               | messages (and trust for your colleagues) like in Signal.
               | Not simply paywalled messages.
        
             | cal85 wrote:
             | I know the small ones exist, and I use many, they're often
             | much better than Twitter for specialist interests (HN is
             | just one example). But I also scroll through Twitter daily,
             | for something the small ones can't provide: it's the big
             | one where 'everyone' is.
        
           | berkes wrote:
           | > No one likes to check 20 different apps to talk to 20
           | slightly different groups of people
           | 
           | Then why do we have Linkedin, Twitter, Reddit, Youtube,
           | Orkut, Whatsapp, Instagram, SnapChat, QQ, Facebook,
           | Hackernews, Discord, and Stackoverflow?
           | 
           | What you say people don't want, is exactly what people
           | already do.
        
             | m3kw9 wrote:
             | Because the medium is different. Instagram is different
             | images, twitter is text, Fb is more local social circle.
             | But if you have 5 twitter clones, no one wants to use 5
        
               | mcv wrote:
               | The thing is, Fediverse could be all of those things.
               | There's an Instagram clone, there's a YouTube clone,
               | there's Mastodon that's similar to Twitter, and Friendica
               | that's more like Facebook. And you can follow them all
               | from a single account if you want.
        
               | m3kw9 wrote:
               | They could but hard to compete on content
        
               | mcv wrote:
               | YouTube is the big one there. But you can still share
               | YouTube content on the Fediverse.
        
           | krapp wrote:
           | You're literally describing the way forums, messageboards,
           | mailing lists and _everything_ worked before Twitter and
           | Facebook came along. Yes, people can and will handle more
           | than the absolute minimum social complexity just fine.
           | 
           | And Mastodon in particular will let you follow people on
           | whatever instance you happen to use. "Checking 20 different
           | apps to talk to 20 slightly different groups of people" is
           | hyperbole, not reality.
        
             | jghn wrote:
             | > You're literally describing the way forums,
             | messageboards, mailing lists and everything worked before
             | Twitter and Facebook came along
             | 
             | Yes. And while the GP was hyberbolic, I think what we saw
             | is that a large %age of people preferred one stop shopping.
             | 
             | Speaking for myself, the thing I love(d) the most about
             | Twitter was the consolidation. It effectively replaced a
             | bunch of message boards, online sites, and other things I
             | would check throughout the day. One site gave me banter
             | with friends, talking shop with professional acquaintances,
             | weather, news, gossip, etc.
        
             | Dma54rhs wrote:
             | The people who were first online didn't represent the
             | average person. Everyone's online now, it used to be a
             | bunch of geeks and weirdos back then. I'm nostalgic as well
             | but the times have changed.
        
               | giantrobot wrote:
               | This is very ahistorical. There's long been consumer non-
               | geek friendly online services. The typical AOL user in
               | the 90s wasn't a geek by any means. They used chat rooms,
               | instant messaging, and mailing lists via the user
               | friendly AOL interface.
               | 
               | Facebook has long provided a user-friendly interface for
               | non-geek users. It's filled with non-geeks generating
               | content.
               | 
               | While the Internet has always had a geek contingent it
               | hasn't been the exclusive domain of geeks for nearly
               | thirty years.
        
           | lamontcg wrote:
           | > But the whole appeal of social networks is that everyone is
           | there.
           | 
           | literally posting this to the HN audience...
        
           | soneil wrote:
           | In the real world, I have a network of colleagues at work. a
           | network of friends at home. two separate networks that
           | revolve around specific hobbies and rarely collide with the
           | others. And when I go home, I have a latent network of
           | friends & family.
           | 
           | And there's absolutely no reason for any of these networks to
           | cross paths. The idea that everyone needs to be in one
           | network, is just as logical as my mother reading my HN
           | comments.
        
           | jvanderbot wrote:
           | I talk to my close friends by text, discord, and steam chat.
           | I talk to my coworkers by LinkedIn and slack. I talk to my
           | family by phone, email, and text. Some are on signal some are
           | not.
           | 
           | It's quite normal.
        
           | IanCal wrote:
           | > There's never really going to be such a thing as a thriving
           | small social network.
           | 
           | Fun to see this posted on a pretty niche but very active site
           | which covers probably a small proportion of your social
           | circle.
        
           | stcroixx wrote:
           | Many people want just that, but there is likely no overlap
           | between them and someone following celebrities on social
           | media.
        
           | rsynnott wrote:
           | I would note that you are writing this on a thriving small
           | social network.
        
           | epolanski wrote:
           | The appeal of reddit and tik tok is the content, not the fact
           | that everyone is here.
        
           | prmoustache wrote:
           | The realit is no such network that can brag that everyone is
           | there. The biggest one, Facebook, doesn't even have a third
           | of the total population on earth as active users.
           | 
           | Twitter, that we all love to talk about, has only a very
           | small penetration with around 200 millions of active users.
           | 
           | And there are still myriads of tiny web forums with very
           | active communities. I don't think every social network needs
           | to have a global penetration.
        
             | kaba0 wrote:
             | Let's add that twitter has/had peaks up to the billion
             | concurrent users scale during important global events.
        
               | prmoustache wrote:
               | registered users or hits? I guess the later only.
        
           | indymike wrote:
           | > There's never really going to be such a thing as a thriving
           | small social network.
           | 
           | Says the post on a thriving _discussion forum_ that isn 't
           | even a social network. Quality has a quality all of its own.
        
           | djur wrote:
           | I don't like checking different apps per se, but I absolutely
           | want to have distinct social networking profiles and
           | communities for my different interests. I'm happy to share my
           | unremarkable opinions about technology with a wide audience,
           | but I'd prefer not to talk about politics with everybody with
           | a smartphone. I don't want to inflict my video game
           | shitposting on my mom who wants to share her Wordle scores
           | with me. For those who are inclined to such a thing, I don't
           | think anyone would prefer to see their boss see them tweet
           | peach emojis at influencers doing squats. And so on. None of
           | the existing social networks perfectly serves all use cases,
           | and I don't think they can.
        
           | maeln wrote:
           | Maybe for the recent idea of social network. But back in the
           | 2000', a lot of "social network" were IRC server/channel and
           | forums. And they were often small and meant for a specific
           | community/hobby/interest.
           | 
           | The idea of a social network where almost all of your friend
           | and family are on, is really something that started in the
           | 2020'.
           | 
           | In many way, Mastodon is just the phpBB of the 2020', with
           | the added benefit that you could connect to other phpBB
           | instances.
           | 
           | And even though hosting your own phpBB instance or
           | IRC/TeamSpeak/Mumble server kinda fell out of favor due to
           | Reddit and Discord, they also kind of act in the same way.
           | Sure you have one login to access all the community instead
           | of having to have a separate account for each, but each
           | community are their own bubble and can moderate however they
           | like. It is not a "worlwide forum" like twitter or instagram.
        
             | pavon wrote:
             | > The idea of a social network where almost all of your
             | friend and family are on, is really something that started
             | in the 2020'.
             | 
             | I would disagree with the timing here. I think the peak
             | "everyone on one network" was Facebook in the early 2010's
             | and since then the market has splintered to other social
             | networks, sometimes along generational lines, others based
             | on use case.
        
             | kitsunesoba wrote:
             | > But back in the 2000', a lot of "social network" were IRC
             | server/channel and forums. And they were often small and
             | meant for a specific community/hobby/interest.
             | 
             | I was never a heavy IRC user, but yeah back in the 00s,
             | especially the earlier two-thirds, I had several different
             | forums on my browser hotbar that I'd make the rounds
             | through a couple of times each day.
             | 
             | Kind of miss that honestly, each forum was its own unique
             | beast with an entirely different set of personalities
             | without also being polarized. Contrast that to modern
             | social networks which have a samey grey-paste quality
             | unless one seeks out highly polarized services, which are
             | often too caustic to spend time in without risking becoming
             | similarly caustic yourself.
        
             | tsimionescu wrote:
             | You're speaking of a time when the Internet itself wasn't
             | really thriving - it was barely a curiosity that didn't
             | exist in the lives of the vast majority of people in the
             | world in any way at all.
             | 
             | With all of their downsides, it's only huge social networks
             | that actually brought the vast majority of people to the
             | internet at all.
        
               | MichaelZuo wrote:
               | > You're speaking of a time when the Internet itself
               | wasn't really thriving - it was barely a curiosity that
               | didn't exist in the lives of the vast majority of people
               | in the world in any way at all.
               | 
               | It was thriving for me, and I was barely a teenager at
               | the time.
        
               | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
               | Many of us software devs are a different sort.
        
             | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
             | There is a "vibrancy" to social networks that are growing
             | that is difficult to quantify or even explain. I'm still on
             | IRC, I'm still on some phpbbs that the average age of the
             | users must be somewhere in the middle 50s, and which might
             | get 10 new sign ups every year. They started out big, but
             | the attrition is much greater than any growth (I doubt that
             | most of the new signups even stick around).
             | 
             | That's why social networks seem so magical early on, not
             | only is everyone you like maybe on them, but there will be
             | new people in the next week, month, or year that you'll
             | like too. New things and new ideas are possible. But at
             | some point, this turns sour. Eternal September _describes_
             | that phenomenon, I think, but doesn 't explain it well.
             | 
             | In some unfortunate networks, I think the latter can come
             | even before the former (preempting it, making it
             | impossible). You don't ever get the golden age.
             | 
             | Mastadon looks alot like this. Ignoring the politics, it
             | looks alot like Voat did, and all the "we didn't learn the
             | lessons of Voat" reddit alternatives that came after. It's
             | almost as if you can't build a social network as a refugee
             | tent city and make anything that anyone wants. Maybe that's
             | the problem. In such a place where everyone is fleeing,
             | there is nothing new there. It's all the same old people
             | who were at the last place with you, there is nothing new
             | about it.
        
           | madeofpalk wrote:
           | The existance of Twitter, Youtube, Facebook, Instagram,
           | TikTok, Hacker News, _Mastodon_ is proof this is not true.
        
           | burkaman wrote:
           | Ever heard of Hacker News?
        
           | bee_rider wrote:
           | That's not a social network, that's a celebrity gossip site.
           | The appeal of a social network is that all my friends are
           | there.
        
             | mcv wrote:
             | I've never used any of the big social networks to talk with
             | my friends. I have no idea if they even are on Facebook or
             | Twitter. But they have email and we have our own Discord
             | place.
        
         | FalconSensei wrote:
         | > We might be headed for a more pluralistic future, with a
         | large chunk of people on Mastodon, another big community on
         | Bluesky, etc.
         | 
         | Which I think is a good thing, and it's also how it was before,
         | on the BBS/Forums days.
        
         | princevegeta89 wrote:
         | I don't understand the "doomed" concept here. How can a non-
         | profit be doomed? Even if it shuts down, it's still not doomed
         | since someone else will fork the project over or take
         | ownership.
        
         | afavour wrote:
         | Most of the author's complaints are about the cost and
         | complexity of running an instance. That doesn't really have
         | much to do with whether it rivals other social networks or not.
         | 
         | But I agree, a better headline would be "Mastodon is Doomed as
         | a Twitter replacement". It's fine for Mastodon to not want to
         | be that. But at the same time a lot of recent arrivals were
         | perfectly happy on Twitter and have only moved because of
         | Musk's shenanigans. So long term they'll probably jump ship if
         | a viable alternative comes along.
        
           | BeetleB wrote:
           | > Most of the author's complaints are about the cost and
           | complexity of running an instance.
           | 
           | Correction: Most of the author's complaints are about the
           | cost and complexity of running a _large_ instance. I know
           | people running their own instances, with less than 10 users,
           | yet they are happily tooting with people in other instances.
           | They aren 't missing out on something that I, on one of the
           | largest instances, have.
        
             | afavour wrote:
             | Performance is still dependent on user behaviour, no? If
             | you have a user that follows 10k people then your server is
             | going to start getting a lot busier?
        
               | prmoustache wrote:
               | > Performance is still dependent on user behaviour, no?
               | If you have a user that follows 10k people then your
               | server is going to start getting a lot busier?
               | 
               | If you have a user that starts following 10k user in a
               | short time, you have a spam bot and not a user.
               | 
               | The fediverse is not made in such a way that your social
               | circle grows quickly. You usually starts by following
               | people on your own instance, then people whose content is
               | boosted by them and it only happens slowly and gradually.
        
               | kjjhhhhyy wrote:
               | No, this isn't really true, once you interact with
               | another homeserver Mastodon starts slurping up content
               | from it to fill the third tab on the home screen with
               | content.
               | 
               | The users it finds aren't necessarily ones you've
               | interacted with -- I know from running single server
               | instances
               | 
               | I stopped running an instance because of this
               | functionality. I was running Mastodon on my home Internet
               | and quickly became concerned about the image content it
               | was downloading from users I hadn't interacted with,
               | while I wasn't monitoring the server
               | 
               | There is a LOT of lolicon content on the Fediverse and
               | NOTHING is worth the risk of running a server that might
               | download material that's considered to be CSAM to my
               | local computer while it is unsupervised
               | 
               | So you have to worry about both the quantity of content
               | it downloads and what that content is
               | 
               | As an admin: no thanks.
        
               | BeetleB wrote:
               | > Mastodon starts slurping up content from it to fill the
               | third tab on the home screen with content.
               | 
               | Your statement is a hint to the problem.
               | 
               | From what I find on the Internet, you can still
               | communicate/follow people on other servers _without_
               | getting their timelines. It 's just that the default
               | setting is to pull everything from those relays and you
               | need to disable it.
               | 
               | With that setting, you'll get everything people you
               | follow on other instances, but not more. The "Federated
               | timeline" tab will remain empty.
        
             | prmoustache wrote:
             | This.
             | 
             | I have two separate identities on 2 instances. One has only
             | 40 members, on which I am a moderator, which is a subset of
             | a forum's community and both being funded with donation and
             | a yearly fee to be allowed to post ads in the local
             | marketplace. The other one is much larger but runs on a
             | single Hetzner VPS and is also funded with donation. Admin
             | recently switched registration to manual approval, probably
             | to control and limit the amount of accounts.
             | 
             | If I ever have to run my own fediverse/activity pub
             | server/community, I would definitely put a limit on the
             | active accounts I would serve and have an housekeeping rule
             | to clean up inactive profiles.
        
             | gnramires wrote:
             | Moreover, I am on a large instance (social.coop) and living
             | happily -- I pay a monthly fee and I'm confident it'll last
             | pretty much forever (they also have a governance plan,
             | which I find important!). I also support mastodon itself.
             | Given the number of large servers that are financially
             | healthy, [1] I don't expect this trend to break so soon.
             | Given this voluntary nature however, I think the devs might
             | be underestimating the importance of low running costs...
             | but at scale I'm sure efficiency will improve (in the last
             | case through alternative servers!).
             | 
             | I'm more genuinely worried about Mastodon and other parts
             | of Fediverse forgetting why they were made in the first
             | place. They are made as a network for the users, not for
             | selling ads. They can make every decision with the users
             | wellbeing in mind and this is incredibly powerful in
             | today's world. (if they stick to that, I'm sure they'll
             | find a lot of success)
             | 
             | Selling out as the author seems to suggest would make them
             | into a boring Twitter clone as far as I can tell.
             | 
             | [1] not only mastodon.social, also others like
             | mstdn.social, fosstodon.org, and more -- if not, check with
             | your instance maintainer :)
        
         | amadeuspagel wrote:
         | It wasn't always this way because it was never technologically
         | possible.
        
         | nonethewiser wrote:
         | > The author doesn't seem to realize that it's not necessary
         | for Mastodon to reach the same scale as Twitter or Facebook. We
         | might be headed for a more pluralistic future, with a large
         | chunk of people on Mastodon, another big community on Bluesky,
         | etc.
         | 
         | I don't think people want that. I mean some people, sure. But
         | the network effect is real and I think the market will always
         | demand one audience.
         | 
         | Keep in mind this doesn't mean it has to be centralized. It
         | could be decentralized but connected. Isn't that kinda what
         | Bluesky or Mastadon are shooting for? Decentralized but
         | interoperable?
        
           | pl90087 wrote:
           | > I think the market will always demand one audience.
           | 
           | What? Ever heard anybody say "follow me on Twitter, Instagram
           | and Youtube"? There are plenty more, all have a niche.
           | Snapchat, Twitch, Tiktok, you name it. It's already a
           | pluralistic world, and one more participant in the "open and
           | free" niche is likely to have its place and fans.
        
             | cpach wrote:
             | Indeed.
             | 
             | I have around 80 followers in the Fediverse. (I have a
             | "locked" profile which means I manually approve follow
             | requests, mostly to keep trolls and bots away.) That's not
             | a very impressive number. It still is quite enough though,
             | I don't complain about the current level of interaction.
             | Quality beats quantity.
             | 
             | Unlike Facebook, none of my relatives or middle school
             | buddies are there - and to me that's a good thing. To me,
             | Facebook is way too large-scale for posting casual status
             | updates.
        
           | greenie_beans wrote:
           | one network can be amplified by other networks.
           | 
           | for example, i'm not on tiktok but i still see tiktok content
           | everyday on twitter, instagram, and reddit. and sometimes the
           | news.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | caycep wrote:
           | what if they made fedeverse protocols a standard, i.e. via
           | NIST, ethernet, TCP/IP? or even like TSMC chip design
           | tools/protocols?
        
             | dickhardt wrote:
             | ActivityPub is the core protocol and is a W3C standard
             | 
             | Mastodon is the most popular implementation currently, but
             | there are many other implementations in the fediverse
        
           | turnsout wrote:
           | That's a common misconception. The network effect works even
           | if the network is relatively small. And the market clearly
           | does _not_ demand one audience, since we currently have
           | Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat, WeChat, YouTube,
           | TikTok, Douyin, Weibo, QQ, and so on.
        
             | pjc50 wrote:
             | Indeed. The different networks are used by different people
             | in different ways to do different things in different
             | communities. With some overlap and cross-posting, despite
             | some networks making that very difficult.
             | 
             | The strength and weakness of Twitter was dumping "everyone"
             | into a very flat network. Increasingly that just sets
             | people at war with each other.
        
               | bachmeier wrote:
               | A perhaps even larger problem is that Twitter dumps all
               | tweets on all topics from everyone into that network. You
               | can't follow someone to learn from them in their area of
               | expertise without also hearing their political opinions,
               | religious biases, and such. That injects conflict even
               | though none exists naturally.
               | 
               | I don't know if Mastodon is the answer, but the ability
               | to separate your posts by type would be a massive
               | improvement. The ability to post on different servers
               | makes it possible.
        
             | kibwen wrote:
             | _> The network effect works even if the network is
             | relatively small._
             | 
             | Let's do some wild guesstimation here.
             | 
             | Sturgeon's Law says that 90% of everything is crap. Let's
             | apply that to social connections and assume that any given
             | person only cares about interacting with 10% of any given
             | crowd. Let's actually be even more generous and assume
             | people are an order of magnitude pickier than that: for
             | most people, 99% of other people are crap.
             | 
             | Meanwhile, Dunbar's number says that a human only cares
             | about socializing with up to 150 people. Dunbar's number
             | itself is kind of weird pseudoscience, but it seems
             | reasonable to assume that there is an upper bound (or at
             | least diminishing returns), so let's be generous and go an
             | order of magnitude higher and say that a given person won't
             | care about interacting with more than 1,500 specific
             | people.
             | 
             | Putting these together, it suggests that being a member of
             | a network of 1.5 million individuals ought to suffice to
             | give anyone all the social connections they could ever
             | want.
             | 
             | Of course, it took silly reasoning to arrive at this
             | precise number, but I think there's an element of truth to
             | it. The limits of the human ability to socialize mean that,
             | beyond a certain point, the size of the network itself is
             | no longer the limiting factor on the ability to find people
             | to socialize with.
        
             | kaba0 wrote:
             | Almost all of them are very different audiences, even
             | mediums. Network effect is obviously an important part of a
             | social media site, even if it's not completely all-or-
             | nothing.
        
               | eitally wrote:
               | Yes, but I think the OP was suggesting that the network
               | effect to support a platform is much smaller than most
               | people would think. Consider all the topical sites
               | running PHPBB forums, for example. There are many
               | thousands of vibrant communities around the internet, and
               | they can all coexist peacefully. Many of them feature
               | adds & commercial partnerships, too, and guess what? The
               | click-through and performance of those things is
               | relatively off-the-charts because they directly relevant
               | to the captive audience's interests... especially if
               | representatives from the advertisers directly participate
               | in the community, which many do, and even moreso if the
               | community + advertisers offer IRL community events (which
               | many do).
               | 
               | Besides the depth and stickiness of topical communities,
               | these sites also tend to be almost universally friendly
               | and helpful, even to n00bs and outsiders. It would be a
               | tragedy if they were to be replaced by a one-size-fits-
               | none platform.
        
               | cpach wrote:
               | It is an important part, that's true. But not every
               | scene/forum/product needs to reach the kind of scale
               | where you would start thinking about running Superbowl
               | ads.
        
           | skrowl wrote:
           | [dead]
        
           | Finnucane wrote:
           | >the market will always demand one audience.
           | 
           | People who have an interest in large audiences (media folks
           | and celebrities) will demand one audience, but they aren't
           | necessarily the whole market. Many will be fine to be
           | elsewhere. Even twitter didn't provide 'one audience' at its
           | peak.
        
             | a4isms wrote:
             | If the market demanded one audience...
             | 
             | 1. Why was HN founded, and;
             | 
             | 2. Why did Reddit create the subreddit?
             | 
             | Unnecessary hint: Both questions have the same answer.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | madeofpalk wrote:
           | Who's "people"? Who is "the market"?
           | 
           | I use mastodon at the moment and I get value from it. It was
           | network effects that brought me there - at the same time I
           | wanted to join it, a bunch of people I was following
           | elsewhere also moved there.
           | 
           |  _A_ "market" seems to be happy with Mastodon, as evidenced
           | by a non-trivial amount of people using it.
        
             | Beldin wrote:
             | Hear, hear. I was there in the time of webrings and it was
             | glorious! All sorts of quirky little works of art waiting
             | to be discovered.
             | 
             | Then came the monolithic social networks, and we
             | collectively changed from the weird and wondrous adventure
             | mode into the TV-dinner that is the web nowadays. Neither
             | is perfect, and I'm not sure at all how to have both. But
             | I'm glad the pendulum is swinging a tiny bit back.
        
             | api wrote:
             | I think the parent is referring to content creators and
             | people who want to reach a large audience. These people
             | will naturally gravitate to the largest hubs to minimize
             | the amount of work required for maximum reach.
             | 
             | Personally I think that whole aspect of social media is
             | toxic so I don't care, but others are not going to agree.
             | I'm happy with an enclave where I hear the people I want to
             | hear and am not hit with a bunch of spam and propaganda.
        
               | eternalban wrote:
               | The siloes may actually (re)boot a working 'society'.
               | _Word of mouth_ , _social introduction_ , _[restricted
               | /specialized] meeting and discussion spaces_, created the
               | original (RL) societies. Societies originally _emerged_
               | from a disconnected human background. The same can and
               | likely* will happen again.
               | 
               | * Generative AI's gift to human intellectual and cultural
               | rebirth will actually be due to its motivating the birth
               | of numerous curated spaces of discourse and interaction,
               | with strict AI content policies. I predict there will be
               | a cambrian explosion of these boutique spaces. And
               | _society 2.0_ will emerge from this.
        
               | madeofpalk wrote:
               | Mastodon is a failed product because Mr Beast doesn't use
               | it? I don't think that makes sense.
        
               | cpach wrote:
               | _* cries in timeline free from Mr Beast *_
        
               | dsr_ wrote:
               | Mastodon is likely better off if "content creators" avoid
               | it.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
           | > the market will always demand one audience
           | 
           | Is this the demand of the market, or the demand of the
           | marketer? And in either case, why should the rest of us care?
           | After seeing their work, I have a rather negative view of
           | their decisions.
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | > We're all so steeped in the recent past of monolithic
         | centralized social media platforms, but if we peek over our
         | recency bias, we can see that it wasn't always that way.
         | 
         | It wasn't always that way, but it nearly always _ends up_ that
         | way. Reason being the Internet makes it extremely easy to
         | discover new services, and switching costs are relatively low.
         | So this leads to the  "winner take all (or nearly all)"
         | dynamics that are so prevalent on the web - a service only
         | needs to be slightly better than it's competitors to win.
         | 
         | People talk about the concentration of big Internet projects
         | and companies as if it were imposed from on high. The exact
         | opposite happened: people flocked to the services they found to
         | be the best, and told their friends about them.
        
           | ryanklee wrote:
           | Hmm, switching costs are high when monoliths reign, and
           | competitors need to be much, much better in order to attract
           | people from other offerings.
           | 
           | I think what you are pointing to is how network effects suck
           | up customers the first time when there's basically no
           | competition doing the same thing. E.g. Facebook was doing
           | something much, much better than myspace, and people flocked.
           | But after that, switching costs became very high because of
           | how entrenched people were on FB. It took an entire
           | generation for that effect to atrophy, and this is unlikely
           | because there were better alternatives, and more likely
           | because of sociodynamics.
           | 
           | Now it's TikTok and Twitter and people are having a very
           | tough time figuring out how to get out of those platforms
           | even when they sorta hate them. High switching costs because
           | of network effects.
           | 
           | Doesn't matter if there's a slightly better product. There
           | needs to be either a massively better product or the existing
           | products need to be seen as culturally undesirable (e.g.
           | Facebook is cringe).
        
         | loudmax wrote:
         | The appeal of a federated platform is that it's decentralized
         | without being siloed. If Bluesky decides it's in their
         | interest, they could probably figure out some way to federate
         | with Mastodon.
        
         | wslh wrote:
         | Yes, it is always good to remember that the BitTorrent protocol
         | is successful though.
        
         | RajT88 wrote:
         | That was my kneejerk reaction too. It's like saying, "PHPBB is
         | doomed!".
        
       | system16 wrote:
       | > The reality is people don't want to pick their favorite
       | community,
       | 
       | > Communities are not siloed independent bubbles. People are Venn
       | diagrams of lots of communities and interests. Selecting a
       | username can be difficult, deciding which community you want as
       | part of your identity--even if you can change it--is too much.
       | The act of choosing a server has kept more than a few people away
       | from Mastodon.
       | 
       | This is an extremely valid point and I know many potential
       | Mastodon users that have been turned off because of it. It would
       | be like tying your identity to a specific subreddit. I like
       | football and tech and travel, but I don't see why I would want to
       | link my identity directly to one of these interests. And yes, I
       | understand I can still communicate with other instances or can
       | change my instance if needed, but the fact this even needs to be
       | qualified is friction, especially for new non-technical users.
        
         | madeofpalk wrote:
         | Mastodon project seems to be very aware of it this. I believe
         | gargron said recently in an interview they're changing the
         | mobile app to default to mastodon.social, and putting signing
         | up for other instances behind another "Advanced" screen or
         | something.
         | 
         | https://www.theverge.com/23658648/mastodon-ceo-twitter-inter...
         | 
         |  _> mastodon.social isn't actually the default in our app. It's
         | just one of the top ones that shows up. However, I think that
         | possibly going forward, we might rework the onboarding user
         | experience into presenting a default option as well as an
         | advanced option, where all that stuff with choosing a server
         | would basically be hidden away from the people who get
         | intimidated by choice. _
        
         | romwell wrote:
         | >This is an extremely valid point and I know many potential
         | Mastodon users that have been turned off because of it. It
         | would be like tying your identity to a specific subreddit.
         | 
         | I said this last time Mastodon was discussed here, and was
         | downvoted to hell by fans of the platform.
         | 
         | The best part is a particular subreddit being able to ban you
         | _from the entire platform_ because they don 't like what you do
         | _in another subreddit_.
         | 
         | Thanks, but no thanks.
        
       | alkonaut wrote:
       | I'm checking in regularly to see if it's Twitter yet (the only
       | reason I'd use it) and so far it's not. It's slowly getting
       | closer but still a long way off the time when you can just use it
       | as a timeline of tweets from 100 known people like I use Twitter.
       | 
       | I realize becoming Twitter is a non-goal, but the actual goals
       | are also uninteresting to most I think.
        
       | iepathos wrote:
       | Vaguely reminds me of late 90's early 00's articles saying linux
       | was doomed lol. The reasons are all similar anti-open source
       | reasons. General disregard for personal responsibility and
       | ownership along with preference of the masses towards ease of
       | use.
        
       | distantsounds wrote:
       | He's not wrong. I'd love to join the fediverse but I want to do
       | so on my own terms with my own server, and I don't want to set up
       | an entire mastodon instance just to do that. Making activitypub
       | synonymous with mastodon is dangerous and i am sure is not what
       | the intention is.
        
       | some_furry wrote:
       | Despite all this gloom and doom talk, this essay ends with,
       | "Mastodon will continue as a niche community and it will have
       | lots of happy users."
       | 
       | What does doomed mean then, Justin?
       | 
       | For contrast, "No VC will dump loads of money into it" isn't
       | exactly a gloomy forecast.
        
         | yborg wrote:
         | It's a gloomy forecast if you're a hype cycle grifter or some
         | rando looking to become a platform influencer. Now you have to
         | find some other bandwagon to climb on.
        
       | atak1 wrote:
       | I also never really got into Mastodon. My belief is that you
       | still need to build a 10x better product, and Mastodon hasn't
       | achieved that.
       | 
       | Now, the upside for Mastodon is - they have a great platform that
       | a number of people have flocked to bc of the Twitter backlash.
       | Can they create sustainable value for the communities (or people
       | within those communities)? What do people who run these
       | communities want (beyond decentralization)?
       | 
       | Personally, I think the crux is reputation-building. You need to
       | give a few Mastodon users a sense of pride in engaging everyday
       | with their community. From the handful of servers I'm on, I don't
       | see this clearly happening yet. But hope they can get there!
        
       | drcongo wrote:
       | This post should have (2017) in the title. Not because that's
       | when it was written, but because that's when all the articles
       | it's a rehash of were written.
        
       | booleandilemma wrote:
       | _Beyond scaling concerns is the legal responsibility. If you host
       | an instance for other people you should be prepared to invest
       | time documenting and training moderators..._
       | 
       | The idea that there are laws that surround this stuff...laws that
       | lock out enthusiastic people from sharing their own Mastodon
       | servers with the world, is so sad to me.
       | 
       | It's antithetical to the hacker spirit and it will stifle any
       | grassroots effort.
       | 
       | The web has gotten _way_ too serious.
        
       | jrm4 wrote:
       | Yeah, I'm hoping he's wrong, but this good analysis.
       | 
       | Count me in as among those who actively _does want Mastodon to be
       | the new Twitter._
       | 
       | Its becoming increasingly clear to me that a hugely scaled
       | microblogging platform is important (if not essential) to world
       | discourse and democracy, and that a federated platform is
       | probably the long term best, if not easiest, way to do it.
       | 
       | Honestly, the bit that kind of baffles me is the extent to which
       | _big companies_ don 't seem to realize that this solves potential
       | "Eli Lilly" problems. This shouldn't be too hard to explain
       | either.
       | 
       | "Hey, you know how you can own your email and your website? You
       | can do that too with something like twitter if everyone starts
       | using Mastodon. You should throw some money at a server to do
       | that."
        
       | mnd999 wrote:
       | I used to run my own server. Then I checked out #nsfw to see how
       | much porn was getting federated into my google cloud storage
       | bucket. I don't want to have a Google account limiting argument
       | with Google about this so it seemed safer to move to somebody
       | else's server.
        
       | PinguTS wrote:
       | This article reads like the first articles about Twitter.
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | I'm not sure that makes sense.
         | 
         | I can't imagine discussing twitter in the early days and how
         | users / communities have to manage servers / are shutting down,
         | etc.
        
           | yborg wrote:
           | You obviously weren't on Twitter in the early days of the
           | Failwhale and "Twitter will never scale." In fact, the
           | original Ruby implementation didn't scale and was eventually
           | discarded. The same thing will happen with Mastodon if it
           | becomes necessary.
        
       | afavour wrote:
       | I really wish Mastodon wasn't absorbing 95% of the ActivityPub
       | hype because everything in this article is correct. The good news
       | is that there are folks (and I forget the name, doh) working on a
       | Mastodon compatible alternative that doesn't use Ruby and
       | Postgres. Every story I hear about backlogs of Sidekiq jobs in
       | Mastodon instances makes it feel like a nightmare.
       | 
       | More broadly though I think Mastodon is going to fail as a mass
       | thing because it isn't actually what people want. A lot of recent
       | arrivals want Twitter without the corporate ownership but
       | Mastodon is actually lots and lots of little communities with
       | inefficient links between them rather than one whole. You can't
       | even see all the replies to a message by default, it only shows
       | you on-instance replies! And how any brand new user is supposed
       | to knowledgeably choose an instance is a mystery to me.
       | 
       | Even as a veteran user I find the instance system awkward. I have
       | many interests, how do I pick an instance to be my home? Should
       | it be a web dev instance? A music instance? In some ways I prefer
       | the idea of signing up on both and having people be able to
       | follow me based on topic interest but Mastodon doesn't really
       | have a good concept of unifying profiles in that way. Not to
       | mention I'd then be paying to support two instances instead of
       | one.
        
         | mariusor wrote:
         | > Mastodon doesn't really have a good concept of unifying
         | profiles in that way.
         | 
         | I think you're looking at the problem from the wrong angle.
         | There's no need for multiple profiles if you can easily
         | participate and be a part of both communities but at the same
         | time not be a user of any of them.
         | 
         | That's the benefit that Mastodon doesn't have, because their
         | model of how federated communities should work predates
         | ActivityPub's spec finalization.
         | 
         | I think your use case would be satisfied if as a user you could
         | "subscribe" to all activities generated on a server (or
         | multiple), while your account would be on another one.
         | 
         | ActivityPub makes this flow relatively simple, and one of the
         | projects I'm working in the space has it as a design goal:
         | small instances addressing themselves to communities with
         | relatively low numbers (500-1k people), but at the same time
         | the participation and receiving of updates from any other
         | community in the network would be a click away.
        
         | fuzzehchat wrote:
         | Pleroma is lightweight and fast.
        
         | zimpenfish wrote:
         | > there are folks (and I forget the name, doh) working on a
         | Mastodon compatible alternative that doesn't use Ruby and
         | Postgres
         | 
         | There's Akkoma (Elixir, Postgres) or GotoSocial (Go, SQLite) or
         | Takahe (Python, Postgres) and probably some I've not even
         | encountered as yet.
         | 
         | 'KomoD and 'RobotToaster remind me of Pleroma (Elixir,
         | Postgres) which Akkoma was forked from.
        
           | everybodyknows wrote:
           | From
           | 
           | https://docs.gotosocial.org/en/latest/
           | 
           | > Federation Issues > > Since every ActivityPub server
           | implementation has a slightly different interpretation of the
           | protocol, some servers don't quite federate properly with
           | GoToSocial yet ...
           | 
           | How's the specification/validation effort for ActivityPub
           | progressing?
           | 
           | https://www.w3.org/TR/activitypub/
        
             | zimpenfish wrote:
             | The only servers I currently have an issue with federating
             | from my GtS instance are Honk instances and that's because
             | (I'm reasonably sure) of a Honk weirdness.
             | 
             | YMMV, obvs.
        
           | KomoD wrote:
           | There's also Pleroma
        
             | kkklppubgdzs wrote:
             | Some Mastodon instances block all Pleroma instances because
             | they don't like the developer's politics though so you have
             | to keep that in mind
        
               | FalconSensei wrote:
               | Just my experience, but I think it might also be the type
               | of users/instances.
               | 
               | Haven't had much trouble now (perhaps my current instance
               | blocks pleroma), but a few years ago I dropped Mastodon
               | because I was getting the same amount of attrition than
               | on Twitter. And every time, is was a Pleroma user. I even
               | voted on a ticket to create 'local-only' posts, because I
               | didn't wanna handle Pleroma users...
        
               | kkklppubgdzs wrote:
               | A lot of Pleroma users have different politics than
               | Mastodon users because of the history of infighting
               | between the developers, but this doesn't change the fact
               | that people making stereotypes about the views of users
               | based on the software their instance uses 1) hurts single
               | user instances of Pleroma which are much easier to run
               | than Mastodon and 2) makes the whole ActivityPub network
               | more toxic and cliquish
               | 
               | If one software type is giving you more "attrition" than
               | the others you might be part of a clique
               | 
               | That said I don't know why anyone would assume that the
               | Fediverse would be better moderated than Twitter when the
               | architecture of the protocol makes regulating "attrition"
               | harder, not easier.
        
               | FalconSensei wrote:
               | > If one software type is giving you more "attrition"
               | than the others you might be part of a clique
               | 
               | At that time, it was just the fact that I was a windows
               | user.
               | 
               | And once because I posted a pic of me watching anime on
               | my TV, and someone asked how I got screenshots for
               | posting them on mastodon/blog later. User was definitely
               | not pleased that I mentioned I got from /r/anime
               | discussion thread for each episode
               | 
               | But yeah, I'm definitely part of a clique of normies that
               | just wanna use a social network to chat with people
        
               | Zak wrote:
               | If anything is going to strangle the usability of
               | federated social networking, it's petty or indiscriminate
               | server blocking. I just saw a popular tips account
               | suggesting that everyone running a smaller server should
               | block mastodon.social if it grew over 50% of the active
               | userbase.
               | 
               | Pleroma was the first ActivityPub server I tried running
               | for myself. I picked it for technical reasons. I switched
               | from it to Mastodon for UX reasons. I don't know anything
               | about the politics of either lead developer, but I think
               | both have crappy design decisions around how they display
               | images by default.
               | 
               | Of course, block anything you want on your single-user
               | server, and any persistent sources of abusive behavior if
               | you're running servers for other people.
        
           | BryantD wrote:
           | Anyone have any insight into the state of Takahe? Progress
           | has slowed down a lot in the last two months.
        
         | aquova wrote:
         | > Mastodon is actually lots and lots of little communities with
         | inefficient links between them rather than one whole
         | 
         | I think this is the key element that Mastodon needs to focus on
         | to make the overall experience smoother. I've been using
         | Mastodon for a while now, and the experience actually gets
         | smoother the more you use it. Eventually you find enough people
         | to follow that you forget many of them might be on instances
         | other than your own, but when you're new, you mainly just have
         | the local feed to go on. My account is honestly on a server
         | with a community that doesn't quite fit my personal niche, and
         | if it was smoother to switch servers I probably would, but I
         | also don't feel limited by that choice as much as I initially
         | did.
        
         | RobotToaster wrote:
         | >The good news is that there are folks (and I forget the name,
         | doh) working on a Mastodon compatible alternative that doesn't
         | use Ruby and Postgres.
         | 
         | pleroma?
        
         | madeofpalk wrote:
         | > I really wish Mastodon wasn't absorbing 95% of the
         | ActivityPub hype
         | 
         | Would be good to revisit this in 12 months. Medium and Tumblr
         | seem to be keen to start to interop with ActivityPub.
         | Supposedly even Meta is building on top of ActivityPub for a
         | new service (which I can't seem to find a good source to link
         | to, so who knows).
         | 
         | I think ActivityPub is the new thing, so Mastodon has a bit of
         | a first-ish mover advantage on it. Once all the big platforms
         | get their proecjts out I think it'll get real interesting.
        
         | Wowfunhappy wrote:
         | > A lot of recent arrivals want Twitter without the corporate
         | ownership
         | 
         | Which you can have on mastodon.social. Go sign up there if you
         | want a non-corporate Twitter. Signups should be open now.
         | 
         | Even if 90% of users are on a single instance, having a
         | federated protocol matters as an insurance policy. If Oracle
         | somehow assumes control of mastodon.social next year, everyone
         | can move to some other instance and retain their connections.
         | 
         | Furthermore, if someone else creates a better vision of social
         | networking in the future, users will be able to switch one-by-
         | one and continue communicating across platforms. There won't be
         | a built-in imbalance due to the incumbent's network effect.
        
         | scyzoryk_xyz wrote:
         | Wondering same thing here. Isn't there a possibility of a
         | solution emerging in the coming years? If so why/why not?
        
         | genewitch wrote:
         | I run a misskey server on a VM on hardware dedicated to _our_
         | stuff - we control the hypervisor on the boxes, we  "own the IP
         | space", manage backups, etc. Misskey is a federated activitypub
         | instance; and in my opinion it is better than mastodon at being
         | a "twitter replacement."
         | 
         | I checked the dashboard for my _four_ user instance (myself and
         | 3 others, total) and we 're currently pub/sub to ~~5200~~ 5219
         | instances. I added a curated list of "journalists" across the
         | federated activitypub realm, around 1300. So now i have
         | basically the "news" part of twitter, 24/7, without all of the
         | jokes, memes, and trash found on twitter. I also am on
         | fosstodon, but I maintain that as a backup for _another_
         | mastodon instance i have an account on, where both the
         | maintainer and the public face of the instance have a  "you get
         | what you pay for" / "that's tough, suck it up" mentality toward
         | maintenance and downtime (they're approaching less than 1 nine
         | for the month of april). I am unsure of how many accounts
         | fosstodon has, the local feed is pretty slow, so i'd guess
         | between 1000-5000 users, the other mastodon instance is capped
         | at 10,000 users, and a job removes everyone who has not logged
         | in for a year, and signups are once a year (and maybe a thing
         | of the past, to hear the "leader" talk).
         | 
         | I really like misskey. I'd probably like something else more,
         | as i can't admin misskey competently - most of the online help,
         | advanced documentation, etc is in Japanese.
         | 
         | For the record: currently 600GB attached; 130GB used, 24GB for
         | / and 105GB for the misskey/files folder. It has 8GB of ram and
         | 4 threads; it uses all 8 without OOM, and ~5% of the CPU. I
         | don't really know the network throughput, but it's on par with
         | a webforum with 3600 uniques per day. activitypub and the
         | fediverse allows for more multimedia to be shared, faster and
         | with less friction, so that explains some similarities and
         | differences i see between these two decentralized services.
        
         | pkulak wrote:
         | > Mastodon is actually lots and lots of little communities with
         | inefficient links between them rather than one whole. You can't
         | even see all the replies to a message by default, it only shows
         | you on-instance replies!
         | 
         | I fail to see the issue here. I'm not sure I care about seeing
         | the most recent replies to something, from anyone, anywhere, vs
         | the comments from the server I'm on, from the community I'm
         | actively involved with.
         | 
         | I like that my server doesn't bring in garbage from around the
         | whole of the internet with perfect efficiency.
        
           | Gareth321 wrote:
           | While I agree, I believe we are in the minority.
        
         | armchairhacker wrote:
         | Do those folks address the issue of ActivityPub transmitting
         | massive amounts of data with 10000+ users? That's one of the
         | main issues the big Mastodon communities have.
        
           | mariusor wrote:
           | I would love to see some data about what you speak of, but a
           | raw ActivityPub activity is maybe 1K in size. Propagating 1K
           | sized payloads from 10K people (let's say that gives us about
           | 10 per second) should not be that big of a deal in the age of
           | streaming. I think unofficial censuses would put the total
           | instance number at around 25000, so that's about the maximum
           | number of outgoing messages a server would send.
           | 
           | 25000(instances) * 10(messages/second) * 1000(bytes) =
           | 256000000 bytes/s = 256MB/s of outgoing traffic
           | 
           | Where Mastodon really gets it wrong is with the incessant
           | caching of media that every instance does, and which is what
           | maybe you are inadvertently thinking of.
        
             | armchairhacker wrote:
             | It may just be Mastodon which has the problem. Still,
             | competitors should make sure to not re-create the problem.
             | 
             | I don't remember the specific comment but something about
             | how one of the top Mastodon servers was transmitting 100TB
             | of data a month, or some other else unreasonably high
             | number. This server only had ~10,000 users.
        
               | mariusor wrote:
               | If my math doesn't fail me that's almost an order of
               | magnitude lower than 256MB/s. :D
               | 
               | I'm suprised I got so close with my back of the napkin
               | calculation.
               | 
               | But what would you consider reasonable data usage for 10K
               | users? Is it maybe possible that a technology that's
               | trying to demonopolyse social networks is probably not
               | optimised for high user counts on individual servers?
        
               | armchairhacker wrote:
               | I don't know how much data Hacker News transmits but I'm
               | certain it's under 100TB/month. I do know HN has >6
               | million requests per day and only runs on 1 server
               | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28478379).
               | 
               | I'm sure Mastodon requires more data-per-user than HN,
               | and a server with 1M+ users will be expensive. But I
               | don't think 10,000 users is that much, and a server with
               | that many shouldn't cost $1000+/mo to operate.
        
               | charrondev wrote:
               | A couple things that I would imagine add to the cost with
               | federation:
               | 
               | Bandwidth costs for user content. You aren't just hosting
               | the content of 10k users but caching and serving the
               | content of everyone you federate with.
               | 
               | Either that or the software would have to be very
               | inefficient.
        
       | redder23 wrote:
       | Let Mastodon die and let Nostr take over. Nostr to me sounds
       | superior in pretty much every way.
        
         | mariusor wrote:
         | Too bad you don't let us know how exactly.
        
         | KomoD wrote:
         | Please explain how it's superior? When I looked at it months
         | ago someone was hardcore spamming porn images with fresh
         | identities each time in the global feed, and all client
         | implementations were terrible.
        
       | Ciantic wrote:
       | Interestingly today's Vergecast episode "ActivityPub is the next
       | big thing in social" [1] touched on monetization.
       | 
       | What I understood from Mike Cue, the monetization implementations
       | won't come from Mastodon, but from established companies building
       | new things, like Flipboard or Medium.
       | 
       | They are also thinking what needs to be added to protocol to
       | support monetization.
       | 
       | IMO it doesn't need any features for monetization. ActivityPub
       | allows creators to create accounts and allow only paid followers,
       | or send their toots to payed subset of followers.
       | 
       | Problem is what servers would the masses gather? Who ever is the
       | biggest node will of course set the rules.
       | 
       | https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/activitypub-is-the-nex...
        
         | segasaturn wrote:
         | Tumblr is adopting ActivityPub and will become the largest node
         | on the network when its completed.
        
           | mariusor wrote:
           | Did anything happen in this direction since Mullenweg said
           | they're going to add support? I am skeptical of them
           | following through with it.
        
       | brycewray wrote:
       | Dupe of https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35701341
        
       | agentultra wrote:
       | I've been around since before the Internet was available to most
       | folks. Seen it grow, lived through Eternal September, watched all
       | the technology revolutions come and go. It's fun reading
       | predictions like this some times.
       | 
       | In the late aughts FB was only getting started. xkcd drew a map
       | of the Internet at the time where FB became a huge land mass and
       | all of the other popular sites at the time were beginning to
       | dwindle as little islands and archipelagos. Funny how from then
       | until 2016 or so that FB continued to dominate and take over.
       | 
       | Google, Twitter, etc joined the fray too and the idea of
       | centralized social networks taking over everything became the new
       | normal. Businesses replaced their websites with Facebook pages
       | and Instagram accounts. Developers stopped hosting their vanity
       | sites and wrote Medium articles instead.
       | 
       | But before all of that got going, before VC money and HN and the
       | current crop of IPOs took hold, there was a period in the early
       | aughts when much of the foundations of what we know the Internet
       | today was built... by hobbyists, hackers, and the OSS community.
       | Some of us worked at company's that funded our efforts, some of
       | us built things to satisfy our own needs and communities.
       | 
       | But many predicted it would all go away under the pressures of
       | capital and an influx of non-technical, casual users.
       | 
       | In a sense it did. But I think Mastodon and ActivityPub's
       | continued existence and thriving communities wouldn't have been
       | predicted by someone in 2016-2017.
       | 
       | Doomed? We'll see.
        
       | fallat wrote:
       | There will and probably already are server implementations that
       | are resource minimal and easy setup. There's nothing about
       | ActivityPub that stops this.
        
       | egypturnash wrote:
       | _shrug_
       | 
       | FidoNet was doomed, too, in the long run.
       | 
       | Newsfroups were doomed, in the long run.
       | 
       | AOL was doomed, too.
       | 
       | Friendster. Livejournal. The Blogosphere.
       | 
       | Flickr. Xanga. Diaryland.
       | 
       | Myspace. Twitter. Facebook.
       | 
       | Tiktok. Instagram. Youtube. Discord. IRC. Slack.
       | 
       | That thing you're working on that involves a blockchain. Nostr.
       | Bluesky.
       | 
       | I give you this litany of doomed social networks.
       | 
       | Some have fallen long ago. Some are still hanging on. Some are
       | just beginning to fall.
       | 
       | Mastodon, right now, is rising. In ten years will we still be
       | using it? In ten years will we remember it fondly as a
       | transitional stage to whatever future ActivityPub clients and
       | hosts we use to connect with our friends, build communities, and
       | share the work of filtering out people who want to use us purely
       | as a source of profit, or who are actively opposed to our
       | continuing existence? In ten years will we all once more be in
       | one monolithic corporate-owned profit-seeking social network,
       | remembering wistfully when it looked like we might be breaking
       | free of those chains for a while?
       | 
       | Even so, whatever we are using in that future: it, too, is
       | doomed. Newspapers were doomed. Magazines were doomed. Social
       | media is doomed.
       | 
       | Mastodon is hiring right now. Do you think it needs to be lighter
       | on resources, easier to run, easier to personalize? I run one and
       | I certainly think so. Do you have the skills to make it those
       | things? Send them a resume. Tell them that this is what you want
       | to do. Do you have the money to not worry about paying the bills
       | for a few years after, say, working at Disney's feature division,
       | then helping them build their streaming service, then moving over
       | to Amazon for a while? Then take a working vacation: grab the
       | source, start making proposals, start offering major patches.
       | 
       | Mastodon is doomed. Will you stand by and comment on its demise?
       | Will you do something to keep it running? Will you try to hasten
       | that doom for the good of the Fediverse by building an
       | alternative server with a well-tested "import everything from an
       | existing Mastodon in one click" button?
       | 
       | I dunno, I'm not you.
        
         | cornhole34 wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
       | albertkinng wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | louison11 wrote:
       | A technologically interesting product and a relevant commercial
       | product are two vastly different things. Problem with these
       | projects is they are driven by technical curiosity instead of
       | being run like businesses.
       | 
       | The sweet spot is finding ways in which decentralization fits use
       | cases that centralization cannot provide, all while being vastly
       | superior to everything else. That hasn't been the case so far for
       | social media.
        
       | dkuntz2 wrote:
       | this whole article is literally FUD.
       | 
       | "some instances shut down", "there might be a CVE and everyone
       | will reevaluate", "moderation isn't centralized"
        
       | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
       | _> All of those "features" come with with a heavy price--
       | responsibility._
       | 
       | This is the issue with many of these types of services. Geeks
       | love them; but no one else does. I don't like running a VPS or an
       | AWS instance, because of all the overhead, so I tend to use
       | shared hosting. I'm quite capable of running a VPS, but I can't
       | be arsed.
       | 
       | I suspect that we'll be seeing some fairly large corporate
       | Mastodon servers (like...say... _Twitter_ ). These are likely to
       | be popular.
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | We need some turnkey VPS hardware, and a lot of these problems
         | would be greatly reduced.
        
         | safety1st wrote:
         | None of that was enough to stop email. Free is a very good
         | price.
         | 
         | Once it was obvious that emailing was a thing many people
         | wanted to do, and a free server became available, servers
         | started springing up all over the place, many more
         | implementations of the underlying protocols were developed,
         | businesses figured out various ways to monetize, the standards
         | evolved (somewhat).
         | 
         | Now let's do an inventory on ActivityPub...
         | 
         | 1) It became obvious that tweeting was a thing many people
         | wanted to do? Check
         | 
         | 2) A free server became available? Check
         | 
         | 3) Servers started springing up all over the place? Check
         | https://www.similarweb.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/m...
         | 
         | 4) More implementations were developed? That's where we are now
         | 
         | 5, 6) Stay tuned
        
           | romwell wrote:
           | >None of that was enough to stop email. Free is a very good
           | price.
           | 
           | You missed some steps in your inventory listing though:
           | 
           | 0)Able to communicate with anyone else with an account,
           | regardless of which server they have signed up with? [ Nope.
           | ]
        
           | FredPret wrote:
           | - With email, it was very easy to join and use. Get an email
           | account, get an email address, send the email. Done. You can
           | email anyone who has email.
           | 
           | - With Mastodon, it's immediately more complicated than that.
           | 
           | - Free isn't a factor in Mastodon's favour because Twitter,
           | Facebook, and Instagram are also free. And it's simple to
           | understand and join.
           | 
           | - Everyone is on Twitter, so if you want to see their tweets,
           | you have to join too.
        
             | tambourine_man wrote:
             | >Everyone is on Twitter
             | 
             | Not anymore and less each day. Twitter is no longer a valid
             | choice for a lot of people.
        
             | madeofpalk wrote:
             | > - With Mastodon, it's immediately more complicated than
             | that.
             | 
             | Is there something inherit in Mastodon that makes it more
             | complicated, or is this an obstacle that can be overcome
             | (like email did)
        
               | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
               | I suspect that it's something that could be "skinned"
               | with a simpler UX.
               | 
               | I'm writing a _very_ basic social media app, myself,
               | right now, and have developed an appreciation for the
               | complexity behind the facade.
        
           | eddieroger wrote:
           | 7) Google and Microsoft become dominant in the space and make
           | deliverability harder for everyone who doesn't want to jump
           | hoops to make their server deliverable, and even for those
           | who do, sometimes it is literally impossible. For those who
           | want to play the game, they do, but most people move to Gmail
           | and move on.
        
         | Hamuko wrote:
         | > _I suspect that we 'll be seeing some fairly large corporate
         | Mastodon servers (like...say...Twitter). These are likely to be
         | popular._
         | 
         | Aren't the most popular ones already ran by companies?
         | 
         | As far as I can see from the data, the most popular is
         | mastodon.social (ran by Mastodon gGmbH), followed by Pawoo
         | (Russell Co., Ltd / formerly Pixiv Co., Ltd), mstdn.jp
         | (Sujitech, LLC), baraag.net (independent) and mastodon.cloud
         | (Sujitech, LLC).
        
         | local_crmdgeon wrote:
         | I've said this before on my throwaways - this is the same logic
         | as Bitcoin. I don't want more responsibility, I want to use a
         | service that works.
         | 
         | Also, like BTC, the whole thing is network effects, and
         | barriers to entry dramatically curtail networks. People like
         | Twitter because celebrities and journalists use it, not because
         | of the data model.
        
           | smoldesu wrote:
           | HN has an API and a search database connected to it, but it's
           | also "a service that works". It's not as complicated as
           | Bitcoin, everything is abstracted as a simple account/forum
           | system. The non-user-facing complexity is high, but the user-
           | facing complexity is minimum.
           | 
           | That's what ActivityPub integration is going to look like,
           | IMO. With companies like Flipboard and Tumblr adding
           | integration, it's undeniable that the network is growing
           | (even if it's not it's strong suit). For people who want an
           | RSS-style feed with light interactive elements, it's a dream
           | come true. Maybe that encompasses Twitter users, maybe it
           | doesn't.
        
         | Gareth321 wrote:
         | This is exactly the problem with Linux. For decades I've been
         | seeing developers frothing at the mouth yelling at everyone
         | else about how they should switch to Linux. Then they try
         | Ubuntu and they can't even change the mouse acceleration
         | without hunting down third party tools and they leave and never
         | come back. Users need dead simple UX. Mastodon's signup process
         | alone has been an absolute nightmare until mastodon.social
         | enabled direct signup.
        
       | Tepix wrote:
       | " _You can, of course, run your own server. Just like you can run
       | your own email server. And you will be blocked from the broader
       | public discorse just the same. There will be no way for large
       | instances to trust and allow every individual instance. The
       | moderation work will be too much and they'll end up trusting only
       | large, established instances._ "
       | 
       | I don't think this is happening. Instances are only banned after
       | they attract negative attention, not whitelisted, which would be
       | antithetical to the idea of federation.
        
       | no_wizard wrote:
       | My biggest problem with Mastodon is I'm not really getting good
       | casual interactions. I thought it would be more "open" and free
       | flowing conversation, but its largely been this loud echo chamber
       | of opinions and organic discussion of different things hasn't
       | really materialized the way I hoped (this is, in fact, something
       | I do get out of current Twitter, believe it or not)
       | 
       | I have tried interacting with different instances and what not,
       | going more niche community hasn't materialized very well,
       | traction is really low
        
       | ivanmontillam wrote:
       | I agree with all author remarks in this post.
       | 
       | Turns out that we already have the federated web. If we truly
       | wanted to federate social media, we already have federated blogs.
       | It has been on the decline a lot, but it's a choice for those who
       | truly want it.
       | 
       | I've also thought that if Twitter stopped existing, it'd leave a
       | hole Mastodon can never fill. Maybe Bluesky can? but what I'd do
       | instead is to invest far more in POSSE, and maybe add a micro-
       | blogging feature on my website for these random threads I
       | sometimes write (I'd be the only account on my website, though).
       | 
       | From the start, I've also thought Mastodon is doomed, it gave me
       | a "code-smell" the double @ usage (one for the username and
       | another one for the server itself you belong to). It just never
       | did make any sense to me (maybe I'm just criticizing the
       | aesthetic aspects of it).
        
         | mariusor wrote:
         | > I've also thought that if Twitter stopped existing, it'd
         | leave a hole Mastodon can never fill. Maybe Bluesky can?
         | 
         | Why do you think that Bluesky will be able to do what Mastodon
         | can't?
        
           | ivanmontillam wrote:
           | I mentioned Bluesky just as a competitor in terms of sharing
           | the same market with a similarly-specified product, but other
           | than "it's a microblogging site" I don't know what else it
           | is. I'm not there, yet.
        
             | mariusor wrote:
             | From second hand reports - I don't have, nor do I plan to
             | have an account - it looks like the user experience on bs
             | is worse than even Mastodon. Similarly limited character
             | counts, no options for formatting text, no editing, etc.
        
           | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
           | > Why do you think that Bluesky will be able to do what
           | Mastodon can't?
           | 
           | And, why would you think that Bluesky will be able to do what
           | Twitter can't?
           | 
           | i.e. remain both viable and not enshitified (1), in the face
           | of the need to either turn a profit or be up for sale? AFAIK,
           | Bluesky has the same kind of business model as twitter,
           | therefor the same failure mode. Why would I sign up for that
           | ride again?
           | 
           | 1) https://pluralistic.net/2023/01/21/potemkin-ai/#hey-guys
        
       | dragontamer wrote:
       | So the approximate fair market cost is roughly 10 cents per
       | month? 5 cents for server costs, double that for a decent profit
       | margin?
       | 
       | So maybe charge $2/year for the service or something?
        
       | foul wrote:
       | If someone wishes for a thriving Fediverse, Mastodon HAS to die.
       | And Misskey and Pleroma (and Akkoma, and Takahe) too. The way
       | these apps are shaped requires a subscription model or a big
       | thankless spender to keep them afloat, they will sooner or later
       | be the reason for more siloing incidents and creation of new
       | walled gardens. I already know most of the users have no
       | alternative, but still.
        
       | solarkraft wrote:
       | Just like E-Mail, right?
       | 
       | Really: The federation model is the same. It faces the same
       | fundamental constraints (arguably exacerbated by some technical
       | ones).
       | 
       | They've been solved for E-Mail. I believe they're solvable for
       | ActivityPub by going through similar steps.
       | 
       | We can argue about the centralization of E-Mail all we want:
       | There are still multiple companies providing the service and it's
       | possible to start your own. Yes, companies - I think that while
       | loose and and more or less charitable communities definitely have
       | a future, real stability and trust will come from entities large
       | enough to be too big to easily fall over (and most naturally
       | those are companies with paying users).
       | 
       | I've seen so many small instances go away, leaving their users
       | almost completely helpless and effectively locked out of the
       | network. Keep in mind that your instance is your identity
       | provider (I think there have been efforts to change this, but I'm
       | not seeing any ways to migrate from an instance that is already
       | gone).
        
         | pizzalife wrote:
         | The analogy would be closer to Usenet than email.
        
         | kornhole wrote:
         | Activity pub federation is much easier than email. Most of the
         | ISP's block email ports on our home connections which requires
         | us to setup mail relays just for the email verification of
         | account setups. Then you have to do all kinds of work to make
         | your email seem valid and not blocked by all the gatekeepers.
         | Activity pub is just running over HTTPS, and we can control how
         | we federate and block unwanted content with the great tools
         | built into most implementations.
        
       | einpoklum wrote:
       | > hachyderm.io had trouble scaling ... with 30,000 users and over
       | $5000 worth of equipment... They were able to migrate ... to
       | Digital Ocean ... at a cost ... [of] more than $1000/mo.
       | 
       | 1 TB of data fits several time in a typical consumer HDD. Is it
       | really not enough to have $5,000 USD of hardware to run a
       | 30K-user Mastodon instance?
        
       | fuzzehchat wrote:
       | Running an instance isn't expensive. Running an instance with
       | 10,000 users might be, but you don't have to have lots of users.
       | I run an instance and I can and do easily communicate with lots
       | of other people on other instances without much effort at all.
       | 
       | I'd say that I've managed to find more people, with less effort
       | who share some of the same interests as me and honestly I don't
       | know which instance they are on because it didn't matter. Using
       | hashtags to find content that you like, following a handfull of
       | people and suddenly your feed comes alive.
       | 
       | Perhaps we should stop teating users like morons. Sure it's
       | different but people learn.
        
       | jwmoz wrote:
       | A solution for developers built by developers. Should have
       | thought of the end user first.
        
       | hinkley wrote:
       | News flash: tech and fads change constantly on the internet.
       | Almost everything is "doomed".
        
       | actionfromafar wrote:
       | As far as hosting costs per user go, I think the Mastodon
       | software could be implemented in a much more efficient manner.
       | There are already alternative, working proof-of-concepts which
       | are much leaner.
       | 
       | As far moderation, that's a harder thing to handle. Don't know
       | really.
        
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