[HN Gopher] Disney is shrinking FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver ...
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Disney is shrinking FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver (and his
models) are leaving
Author : Amorymeltzer
Score : 21 points
Date : 2023-04-25 22:07 UTC (53 minutes ago)
(HTM) web link (www.niemanlab.org)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.niemanlab.org)
| greesil wrote:
| Well there goes any somewhat reliable election forecasting for
| the US
| justinsaccount wrote:
| The very idea of election forecasting is harmful to democracy
| and should be shunned wherever it appears.
| t-writescode wrote:
| If it's not being done in public, it's absolutely being done
| in private. Do you believe democratizing that data is a bad
| thing?
| dalyons wrote:
| this is an interesting take. why do you say that?
| orev wrote:
| It's pretty easy: if someone is projected to win, voters
| who were planning to vote for that person might stay home
| to avoid "eating their time" since they're going to win
| anyway. Then that person doesn't win because the voters
| didn't show up.
| Multicomp wrote:
| While I readily admit to feeling like my comment could be
| seen as sealioning, but could you post some links and/or
| search terms I could use to try to research why one might
| hold an opinion like this?
|
| I don't know whether to agree or disagree with this; I'm new
| enough to not have come across this particular opinion before
| (that I've noticed).
| joshl32532 wrote:
| Might as well divest FiveThirtyEight or shut it down if Nate
| Silver is leaving.
|
| Nate Silver is 538.
| renewiltord wrote:
| This is horrible. Now how will I delude myself with forecasts
| about the Premier League? I'm going to need to wait for him to
| get a substack.
| henriquez wrote:
| I'm surprised to learn that Disney owned FiveThirtyEight and also
| that they kept Nate Silver afloat for that long. Dude's
| credibility was shattered after 2016 - a master of proving that
| getting high on your own fumes makes you high.
| schnable wrote:
| Seriously? What did he get wrong in 2016? Trump squeaked it
| out. 528 provides probabilities, and he expressed a very strong
| possibility of Trump winning with a 28% chance--much higher
| than almost everyone else including the Clinton campaign.
| Scubabear68 wrote:
| Incredibly smart of him to hold the rights to his models
| personally, and only license them to 538 (and hence ABC/Disney).
| eshack94 wrote:
| Absolutely. Good planning and foresight on his part to enable
| him to retain ownership of his hard work.
| shusaku wrote:
| I wonder if TheRinger can afford him. My impression is that sites
| like 538, Grantland, Andscape, etc don't make any money for
| Disney, so this isn't too surprising.
| aardvarkr wrote:
| Huh, I had no idea Nate Silver got his start on daily kos.
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(page generated 2023-04-25 23:00 UTC)