[HN Gopher] The Great Electrician Shortage
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Great Electrician Shortage
        
       Author : cocacola1
       Score  : 78 points
       Date   : 2023-04-24 17:13 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.newyorker.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.newyorker.com)
        
       | Workaccount2 wrote:
       | Fast track the learning process to catch all the white collars
       | who are on the cusp of being automated out of a job.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | retrocryptid wrote:
       | Industry: we don't have nearly enough electricians.
       | 
       | Electricians: maybe pay us more.
       | 
       | I: It's a complete mystery. We can't figure it out.
       | 
       | E: pay us more
       | 
       | I: Maybe we should try to use AI to figure out how to install
       | wire more efficiently.
       | 
       | E: or you could pay us more.
       | 
       | I: we should create a billion dollar fund to pay for graduate
       | students to research why we don't have enough electricians.
       | 
       | E: or you could pay electricians more.
       | 
       | I: SHUT UP, PEASANT!
        
         | DrThunder wrote:
         | They have unions. Unions are doing a terrible job of
         | negotiating and/or keeping the prices low.
        
       | GalenErso wrote:
       | Isn't it almost impossible to become an apprentice electrician if
       | you don't have family connections to unions? A few comments from
       | this Reddit thread:
       | https://old.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/104fooe/america_...
       | 
       | > It's hard, because the formally decent paying apprentice
       | programs pay has stayed about the same while working, fast food
       | or whatever has gone up a lot. Working at Taco Bell for $18 an
       | hour is less physically demanding than being a grunt laborer for
       | 15.
       | 
       | > Our local IBEW apprentices start at $19/hr with another 9.50/hr
       | in benefits. First raise is an extra $2 on the check and another
       | $2 in benefits after 1000 hours or roughly 6 months.
       | 
       | > I almost accepted a plumbing apprenticeship when I was 26 but
       | the starting wage was so low I just wouldn't have been able to
       | live. If I could go back in time though I'd try getting into a
       | trade or automotive work by 18.
       | 
       | > I tried becoming an electrician after the military. No where
       | had any interest in taking on an apprentice.
       | 
       | > One friend of mine saved and left her corporate job to become
       | an electrician, only to find boomer electricians wouldn't
       | apprentice a woman. Just one anecdote, of course.
       | 
       | > I got out of the Army, and tried to join the local union as an
       | apprentice. It was a 6-8 months selection process before I could
       | even start. It took longer and was more challenging to try and
       | get into a trade then the military.
       | 
       | > The trades pay shite. I'm a third term apprentice and it's hard
       | work for not much more than McDonald's.
       | 
       | Maybe the whole journeyman/apprentice system needs to be
       | dismantled.
        
         | denimnerd42 wrote:
         | Yup.. the system takes forever to advance through. If you don't
         | start at 18 it's hard to justify doing. Regulations need to be
         | changed but I don't see that happening.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | CaliforniaKarl wrote:
         | One of the best High Volt electricians we have at work is a
         | woman. She's an integral part of keeping out data centers
         | working, and we're actively hiring for an apprentice High Volt
         | electrician!
        
         | jandrese wrote:
         | The funny thing is the rate charged to customers has
         | skyrocketed in the past decade, yet the wages for the
         | electricians are apparently stagnant?
        
           | JustSomeNobody wrote:
           | That's the case with so many things.
           | 
           | If a nickel can be squeezed out of the working class and
           | diverted to the wealthy, it surely will.
        
           | vkou wrote:
           | Middlemen and managers are pocketing the difference. When you
           | hear about tradespeople pulling in mid-six figures, they
           | generally aren't in the trenches, laying down pipes or wiring
           | cables.
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | Productivity and wages (across the board, not just
           | electricians) diverged around 1980.
           | 
           | https://www.epi.org/blog/growing-inequalities-reflecting-
           | gro...
        
             | JustSomeNobody wrote:
             | It never trickled down. It floated up.
        
           | yamtaddle wrote:
           | More central management with large
           | shops/conglomerates/chains, fewer small shops and
           | independents, maybe?
           | 
           | You know, "market efficiency".
        
             | geodel wrote:
             | Yup, _leveraging the synergy_ all the way.
        
           | nuancebydefault wrote:
           | Compare it to farmers who get less for their produced goods,
           | while in the shops prices go up. What part of the ticket
           | price of a litre/gallon of milk ends up with the farmer? I
           | never understood this.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | Based on the profit margins of the largest publicly listed
             | retailers, the shops are not ending up with it either.
        
         | bsder wrote:
         | California IBEW seems to start an apprentice at $27 and goes up
         | to $54. Seems eminently reasonable?
        
           | GalenErso wrote:
           | $27 in a HCOL state like California in 2023 is ... not great,
           | even for an entry-level position.
        
             | bsder wrote:
             | What other job is open to a non-college graduate and
             | guaranteed to go up to $54 an hour at the 5 year mark?
             | 
             | I know a whole lot of people who will never earn $54 an
             | hour in their lives would love to know the answer to that
             | question.
             | 
             | While the pay is decent, it _is_ hard, physical work.
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | A friend is a journeyman lineman in NorCal and makes
             | ~$300k/year + pension rebuilding PG&E infra. Lives in a
             | lovely rural $800k home. Started his career climbing poles
             | in Illinois, straight out of high school.
        
               | akavi wrote:
               | Your friend is a massive outlier in the pay distribution
               | of electricians. He's either gaming the overtime system
               | somehow, or has a unique set of specialized skills (or
               | some regulatory arbitrage combo of both).
        
               | briffle wrote:
               | I have a lineman in the family. The pay is great, the
               | 'hey, there is a storm 4 states away they are sending me
               | to help with, i'll be back home in 2 months' is not so
               | great. But all the overtime you want..
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | Have you seen what linemen do? Work with heavy
               | transmission lines dozens or hundreds of feet in the air,
               | at night, in the rain, etc. They earn every penny of
               | whatever they make IMO.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | Based on the state of PG&E infra from public records and
               | committed capex/infra spend, I'm more inclined to believe
               | the overtime is warranted due to This Is All Terrible And
               | Will Take Decades To Fix. I'll ask! Where there is chaos,
               | there is usually money to be made.
               | 
               | https://www.ewg.org/news-insights/news-
               | release/2022/10/safet...
               | 
               | https://theintercept.com/2019/10/11/pge-power-shutdown-
               | calif...
               | 
               | https://www.naturalgasintel.com/pge-bets-big-on-
               | infrastructu...
               | 
               | https://www.pge.com/pge_global/common/pdfs/about-
               | pge/environ...
        
               | artsytrashcan wrote:
               | Consensus seems to be that "straight out of high school"
               | is an advantage, and not one all of the people who are
               | interested in the work can partake of.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | prpl wrote:
           | In n Out starts at $20
        
             | poisonarena wrote:
             | actually its more now, and Mcdonalds starts at $18 an hour
        
         | mcbishop wrote:
         | My hack was to offer two months of free work to a local
         | electrician (I was fortunate to be able to do that). He took me
         | up on it, and it worked out. He and I now have an arrangement
         | where I can do my own electrical (solar) projects under his
         | license (with his availability for questions) for a flat per-
         | project fee. ...This pays much better than the hourly rate as
         | an employed apprentice.
        
         | rossdavidh wrote:
         | Varies a lot by state. I have a friend (was ringbearer at my
         | wedding when he was a wee lad), and he did a lot of research on
         | which state to go through this in (he chose Colorado, btw).
         | 
         | The journeyman/apprentice system, for all its problems, is
         | probably a net bonus to the lifetime wages, since it prevents a
         | huge surge of new entrants in a short time. Also, although it
         | may not be all we would want, it does probably prevent the
         | worst safety/incompetence concerns that we would have if it
         | were left to the market (since people hiring electricians often
         | don't have the knowledge to tell if they are competent or not).
        
       | denimnerd42 wrote:
       | The regulatory requirements for electricians and plumbers take so
       | long to advance through that if you don't choose it at a young
       | age it's hardly possible to justify doing later.
        
         | robcohen wrote:
         | This is so correct it's absolutely ridiculous. I learn new
         | skills as a hobby. I have a degree in construction. There is no
         | way for me to learn to be an electrician that is authorized to
         | do anything unless I drop everything else I'm doing for a
         | minimum of 4 years.
         | 
         | This is clearly ridiculous. Electricity isn't hard. This is
         | precisely the sort of thing that standardized tests, both
         | knowledge and practical, can effectively fix.
         | 
         | No one wants to fix it though.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | VWWHFSfQ wrote:
           | > Electricity isn't hard.
           | 
           | Famous last words. Maybe the real issue is that it's treated
           | as a "trade", ie, something you can get accredited with in 2
           | years of vocational school or community college. But as we
           | know from all the actual regulations about it, the reality is
           | much different.
        
             | SoftTalker wrote:
             | Residential/Household electricity isn't hard. Learning
             | everything you need to know and putting in the time to get
             | licensed as an electrician is. And for good reason, there
             | are plenty of fools who would try to call themselves
             | electricians otherwise (as there are many fools who try to
             | call themselves software developers but make more of a mess
             | than anything else).
             | 
             | Learning how to do your own household wiring as a homeowner
             | is not hard.
        
               | quickthrowman wrote:
               | Wiring houses is maybe 5-10% of electrical work, the rest
               | is commercial and industrial.
        
               | denimnerd42 wrote:
               | yeah and all the illegal work is being done in
               | residential because of onerous regulations..
        
               | meetingthrower wrote:
               | Exactly. Running basics circuits is very straightforward.
               | Why don't we just tier the licenses from super easy on
               | up? Run 110, license A; run 220, license B; install main
               | service from the street, license test C; running three
               | way switch, badge 1. That way you can then get a handyman
               | to do a light fixture change without him breaking the
               | law.
        
               | tastyfreeze wrote:
               | It also isn't hard to find an electrician that will come
               | sign off on self done home wiring work to satisfy the
               | regulators. To me that is a sign of overregulation.
               | Electricians concede that non-electricians are capable
               | enough to do their own work but the law requires somebody
               | with a license to sign off on it.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | It is not about being capable enough to do the work, it
               | is about having enough reputation and liability insurance
               | to be liable for damages resulting from faulty work.
               | 
               | The city government most certainly does not want to
               | shoulder most of it via their inspectors, so they share
               | it with "licensed" electricians who have to put their
               | assets, or the insurance company's assets, on the line.
        
           | briffle wrote:
           | Of course they don't want to fix it. Those barriers help
           | drive up the value of the people that control those barriers.
           | In my state, its also a huge problem with Nursing and Police
           | Certification. Especially over the last 3 years. If you hire
           | a police officer in Oregon today, you will wait at least 9
           | months until they can start at the state run academy. And
           | they might not graduate. So you have to pay them for 9 months
           | to 'study' and not be police, and hope they graduate. Most
           | deparments here put their recruiting efforts into getting
           | licensed officers from other departments, with a huge bonus.
           | (and of course, massive overtime for existing officers, and
           | complaining about the shortages, turnover, etc)
           | 
           | As the average age of Nurses, Police, etc over the years
           | crept up, there was no movement to increase the capacity of
           | training replacements, as the senior people liked the wages
           | they got.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | How is that a problem? Policing is a hard, complex job.
             | Even 9 months of training isn't nearly enough. Law
             | enforcement officers ought to have a minimum of two years
             | of full time training before being sworn in and sent out on
             | patrol with arrest powers. Many of the problems we see with
             | police brutality and poor community relations come down to
             | lack of proper training.
             | 
             | This is a issue for small police departments which can't
             | afford to pay a non-productive trainee for years.
             | Realistically some of them aren't going to be viable going
             | forward and will either have to merge with departments in
             | neighboring cities, or dissolve and rely on a county
             | sheriff's department.
        
             | petsfed wrote:
             | Given some of the controversies around poorly trained
             | police, I'm not sure the problem here is that it takes too
             | long to become a police officer. Rather, there aren't
             | enough people trying to become officers, so the normal
             | latency exacerbates issues surrounding the existing officer
             | shortage. The absence of good candidates also drives down
             | the quality of the average candidate, and has downstream
             | affects as you mentioned.
             | 
             | Maybe, like with the other trades, something should be done
             | to make the job more appealing, so more people try to enter
             | the pipeline.
        
           | happytoexplain wrote:
           | >Electricity isn't hard.
           | 
           | I agree that we absolutely need to make regulation here more
           | efficient, but I think this attitude is not effective.
           | Electricity is hard, and getting it wrong ruins lives. It's
           | OK to say that something is both hard but also perfectly
           | learnable by most people. They aren't mutually exclusive. As
           | soon as we learn something, we tend to say "it's not hard,
           | really" to people starting that same journey. I think a lot
           | of people unjustly reserve the word "hard" for only the
           | highest degrees of complexity. But it's a useful word - we
           | don't want to discourage anybody, but we also want to
           | maintain a healthy respect for how much work you need to do
           | to properly learn some things.
        
             | ars wrote:
             | > Electricity is hard, and getting it wrong ruins lives.
             | 
             | No it's not hard. You can learn to run the majority of
             | residential electricity (outlets, switches, lights) in a
             | week. Another week or 2 and you can install panels.
             | 
             | It's commercial and especially industrial electricity that
             | is hard. But we insist on training electricians to do all
             | of it, when we mostly need the easier stuff.
             | 
             | And it's pretty hard to ruin someone's life with
             | incorrectly installed electricity. Incorrectly meaning: "I
             | didn't realize I needed to do this", rather than "I'm doing
             | garbage work, like not tightening screws".
        
             | citrin_ru wrote:
             | Both theory and practice IMHO can be learned by motivated
             | person in a year, but to get even a journeyman license one
             | needs to work 4 years (may vary by state) as an apprentice
             | being paid pennies and not necessary receiving all
             | necessary knowledge.
        
               | citrin_ru wrote:
               | A requirement to work 4 years being paid very little
               | before you can get license and be paid for the work
               | strongly reminds me servitude. If it was only about
               | knowledge it should have been possible to demonstrate it
               | by passing a hard exam, but one not allowed to take an
               | exam until servitude if paid off.
        
             | notatoad wrote:
             | "electricity isn't hard" is obviously oversimplifying
             | things a bit. there's definitely some skill involved in
             | electrical work.
             | 
             | perhaps it would be better to say that a lot of electrical
             | work is well within the skillset of a general contractor,
             | and doesn't require a multi-year apprenticeship to learn.
             | something like installing fixtures is a task that anybody
             | is capable of, but instead the contractor has to call the
             | electrician back in after the finishes are installed to do
             | it, because we don't trust the general to do it safely.
             | that's a waste of everybody's time and resources.
        
           | jadbox wrote:
           | Why does no one wants to fix it? Clearly there's a lot of
           | demand for more electricians.
        
             | denimnerd42 wrote:
             | because the people in charge are the ones profiting and
             | they have regulatory capture.
        
               | lapetitejort wrote:
               | Who are the people in charge? How do they make money off
               | this? Which industry has captured the regulators?
        
               | denimnerd42 wrote:
               | The advisory boards, lobbyists, industry insiders that
               | advise the regulatory agencies are all vested in keeping
               | the apprentice, journeyman, master licensing scheme going
               | as it gate keeps entry into the field. If someone
               | proposed that it should be a skills based test with oral,
               | practical, written portions where you simply had to prove
               | your knowledge instead of spend years and hours in the
               | trade then they would come up with tons of reasons around
               | safety, etc that it would be a bad idea just so they
               | could retain their titles and keep more people out of the
               | field.
               | 
               | Similar to any regulated field like Doctors that have a
               | vested interest in keeping residency spots competitive.
        
               | chasd00 wrote:
               | No one wants to say the unions but the answer is the
               | unions. Unions reward seniority and not much else. You
               | have to pay your dues!
        
           | Panzer04 wrote:
           | Yep, absolutely. I'm an EE, and was interested in doing my
           | own electrical work - there's no recognition of prior
           | learning, as far as I can tell. In Australia you _must_ have
           | completed a 4 year apprenticeship. No ifs, buts, it maybes.
           | 
           | For reference, it's not uncommon for contractors to send out
           | apprentices with a year or two of experience to do jobs solo
           | (it's illegal, but that never stopped anybody). I appreciate
           | the need for experienced workers to do jobs to a high
           | standard, but it seems clear to me the currents regulations
           | are too onerous.
           | 
           | It's not surprising a there's a shortage, when the
           | apprenticeship pays like shit, the actual job is not paid
           | especially well, and the work sucks. The only people who make
           | money are the contractors with a team under them.
        
         | Gibbon1 wrote:
         | I made a big mistake when I was a young man. Back in the early
         | 1980's you could get a contractors license by just passing a
         | test. I thought maybe I should get one. Being dumb and young
         | never did.
         | 
         | Now you need to work for four years under a licensed contractor
         | to get a license.
         | 
         | If I hadn't been young and stupid I'd have a contractors
         | license and be able to legally pull permits.
        
         | vkou wrote:
         | If the pay (At the lower/upper/both certification levels) were
         | better, people would justify it.
        
           | denimnerd42 wrote:
           | The pay will never increase because you need the master to
           | hire you to become a master yourself. So they have so much
           | power. You just have to suck it up when you're young and then
           | capitalize on your master license later. That's one reason it
           | won't easily change. The masters have the power and they are
           | entrenched with it. Will the masters that sit on these state
           | regulatory boards or however it works ever vote to decrease
           | the requirements? No it would have to be a revolution or
           | coup.
        
             | morkalork wrote:
             | In smaller towns, some masters aren't even interested in
             | taking apprentices because they don't want the future
             | competition.
        
           | mdgrech23 wrote:
           | Wife's Dad was a plumber. He made better money running
           | hydraulic fluid to the machines at the GM plant than he did
           | bringing clean water to people and disposing of their waste.
           | This boggles me my mind. Clean drinking water and the ability
           | to safely and sanitarily escort your shit out of your house
           | is so vital yet these guys get paid shit. Capitalisms don't
           | always reward what really matters.
        
       | mdorazio wrote:
       | https://archive.is/qKH9C
        
       | seabird wrote:
       | There's a lot of talk about apprentice pay being too low and the
       | process taking too long. What a lot of people seem to be missing
       | is that being an apprentice is a young man's game, that
       | journeyman wages being bad or good is highly regional, and that
       | the path to running your own business is fairly direct. It's an
       | entirely different path from the two-step college to white-collar
       | job pipeline most of us probably went through. You work hard
       | pulling horsecock wire or cleaning shit out of sewer systems
       | fresh out of high school to have the option of either pushing far
       | and hard after your journeyman's card to make incredibly good
       | money, or making a wage that ranges from kind-of-bad to kind-of-
       | good wholly depending on where you live.
       | 
       | If you had a rough start in life, bad grades, no applicable
       | skills, no money to go to college, no family support, etc. but
       | are willing to show up and get your balls busted for a while
       | while you learn, you could do a hell of a lot worse than the
       | average journeyman's wage, and you stand a chance to make a hell
       | of a lot more.
        
       | zoklet-enjoyer wrote:
       | My brother went to school for residential and commercial
       | electrician stuff. He quit after a few years because of low pay,
       | long hours, traveling, and unexpected layoffs.
       | 
       | I almost forgot the craziest part. The Christmas bonus at his
       | company was funded by all the copper they were able to take from
       | jobs and sell
        
         | nuancebydefault wrote:
         | So workers were incentivised to downgrade 10 euro/meter wire
         | paid by customers into scrap of 40 cents per kg? No respect for
         | customers, no respect for the workers and no respect for the
         | environment.
        
         | itsoktocry wrote:
         | > _He quit after a few years because of low pay, long hours,
         | traveling, and unexpected layoffs_
         | 
         | In my area of Canada, demand for this work is so high you can
         | work as much or little as you want, independently, for $50+ an
         | hour. Nothing to sneeze at. Just need that entrepreneurial
         | itch.
        
           | briffle wrote:
           | And a license, insurance, transportation, a place to sleep,
           | eat, proably storage for all your stuff that doesn't fit in
           | your vehicle, etc.
        
           | zoklet-enjoyer wrote:
           | This was over 10 years ago in North Dakota.
        
       | tennisflyi wrote:
       | Look up the median on BLS and tell me if this is all it's made
       | out to be.
       | 
       | Wow. $45k/year...
        
         | UncleOxidant wrote:
         | But electricians working for themselves must be making a lot
         | more than that? Last time I called an electrician it was $100
         | for him to step in the door and $150/hr for the work and that
         | was about 10 years ago.
        
           | SoftTalker wrote:
           | If they are working for themselves yes. But remember they
           | have to not only pay themselves but pay for their truck,
           | their tools, their fuel and their time to drive out to your
           | house, their accountant or bookkeeper, maybe someone who
           | answers their phone and does their schedule, etc. If they are
           | working for someone else, they need to cover all the overhead
           | of the business.
        
           | the_only_law wrote:
           | It's like comparing a software developer with a very
           | successful startup founder who started a software business
           | and saying: "Look programmers can be billionaires" to goad
           | kids into going into software development.
        
           | redavni wrote:
           | If they can pay for the insurance.
        
       | ars wrote:
       | The typical answer to this is "pay more". But that just shifts
       | the problem to some other field "not enough plumbers", "not
       | enough something else".
       | 
       | There's just not enough people to do all the work that needs
       | doing, and not enough money available to pay _all_ of them.
       | 
       | For any individual trade you can "solve it" by paying more - but
       | how do you solve it for all the work that needs doing?
       | 
       | We need to dramatically simplify how much work it takes to do
       | something, or make things last longer, or both.
        
         | nitwit005 wrote:
         | I have wondered if stagnating wages has meant a growing
         | population that basically can't afford a professional for any
         | purpose. Someone who works for $15 an hour is going to have
         | obvious difficulties hiring someone that asks for $100 an hour.
        
       | 7speter wrote:
       | Yawn. The story that starts the article (that tells the same
       | story about the trades that all of these articles tell) takes
       | place in Connecticut, but in NYC, homeowners aren't allowed to
       | touch anything electrical behind a wall. You have to pay an
       | electrician to do the work. Meanwhile, every year on the news
       | there are people camping out for electrician apprenticeships
       | (theres a shortage in the city as far as I can understand) and
       | most get turned away.
       | 
       | Anyways, the funny thing is that if you're college educated and
       | willing to take things step by step, and buy a good set of tools,
       | and read your local municipalities code (the most recent copy of
       | electrical code in nyc is something like 180 dollars instead of
       | being freely available, dunno if its like that elsewhere), you
       | can probably do your own repairs, arrange a schedule to have
       | anyone who needs to jackhammer and run a connection somewhere on
       | your property, have the electric company run whatevers needed
       | wherever and have an inspector look over the work to either
       | certify it or tell you whats wrong.
        
       | emptybits wrote:
       | Canadian perspective here. The median wage of an electrician in
       | Canada is CAD$30/hr (approx EUR20/hr or USD$22/hr).[1] Not great.
       | 
       | That requires a four to five year apprenticeship and the
       | prospects for electricians in the near future is considered "very
       | limited" in the province I live in (BC), which is among the
       | nicest places to live and also the most expensive.[3] (And pays
       | electricians _lower_ than the national median.)
       | 
       | So IMO that hourly wage standard needs to go WAY up before it's
       | considered tempting. Most electricians here work on new projects
       | and there is great reluctance to increase the cost of
       | construction projects (e.g. worker pay) any more than it has
       | already jumped in the last few years.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.jobbank.gc.ca/marketreport/wages-
       | occupation/2068...
       | 
       | [2] https://www.jobbank.gc.ca/outlookreport/occupation/20684
        
         | pcthrowaway wrote:
         | I'm inclined to believe the job bank numbers here are
         | incorrect, based on what it lists for software engineers, which
         | seems a bit low: https://www.jobbank.gc.ca/marketreport/wages-
         | occupation/5485...
         | 
         | Assuming 1880 hours per year (52 weeks * 40 hours - 120
         | vacation hours - 80 stat day hours), that would imply the
         | median wage in BC is $99414
         | 
         | Levels reports a median pay in Vancouver (where I assume at
         | least 60% of the software engineers in BC are) of $156K, and
         | $130K in Victoria. While Levels may be off, I think real wages
         | are somewhere in the middle.
        
       | booleandilemma wrote:
       | It's just an effect of the market right? Why become an
       | electrician when you can become a programmer (with no license
       | requirements whatsoever) and make double.
       | 
       | All while working from home, or in a nice office.
        
         | mdgrech23 wrote:
         | 100% this. I've been getting into home improvement and I was
         | wondering what it would be like to do that for a living. Took a
         | look at the wages and noped the f out of that.
        
           | poisonarena wrote:
           | "100% this"
        
           | eldavido wrote:
           | I've noticed this with a lot of professions. Comp is back-
           | loaded. They start much lower than software, but the good
           | ones make it up in the end by being owners and having a crew
           | of 10-20 work for them, and earning margin on their labor.
           | Regulation and professionalization (e.g. you need to be
           | licensed) seem to encourage this.
           | 
           | Software, assuming one doesn't go into management, seem to
           | have a more linear comp structure. You start much higher, but
           | it doesn't ramp as dramatically as most trade/licensed
           | professions as you go up. Probably because there's less
           | regulation/capture so even entry-level people keep more of
           | what they produce, vs the almost-feudal nature of many
           | trades/professions.
           | 
           | Just what I've seen, anyway.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | > the good ones make it up in the end by being owners and
             | having a crew of 10-20 work for them, and earning margin on
             | their labor. Regulation and professionalization (e.g. you
             | need to be licensed) seem to encourage this.
             | 
             | Good luck with this strategy after decades of declining and
             | still to decline fertility rates.
        
       | dylan604 wrote:
       | A few years ago, the small company (4 people) I was at relocated
       | to a new space that was as-is so we had to do the custom build
       | out for it ourselves. Two of us are hardcore DIY types, so we
       | took on the build ourselves. Part of that required electrical
       | work. We found an electrician that worked with us on the plans
       | and permits, but then allowed us to do the work for the internal
       | wiring to the panel before he ran the mains with the explicit
       | understanding that if there was anything that did not meet specs,
       | he would not connect mains until it was corrected. So we bent
       | conduit, pulled/labeled wires, wired the breaker, then held our
       | breath when he came back for inspection. It was very satisfying
       | when the electrician said it was better work than 90% of his
       | employees. I wish I could find the pics I took of how clean the
       | breaker panel was. The bending of the conduit and measure 3 times
       | cut once was fun and frustrating at the same time, and the
       | decisions on which way to run based on which route needed the
       | least amount of bending was challenging and fun. I definitely
       | have a much deeper appreciation of what electricians go through.
       | It also made it very clear why I did not pursue that kind of
       | construction career path my dad took and did everything he could
       | do to have me not follow those footsteps. To this day, I find
       | myself looking at the conduit work in places and admiring the
       | work more than your normal person
        
         | kencausey wrote:
         | In my opinion, actually caring about the result makes all the
         | difference.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | Right, but it's hard to care to the same level when you're
           | doing the work for your own use vs caring enough to do a job
           | for someone else you may or may not know or like. Caring to
           | do a good job for the sake of doing a good job is so not a
           | common thing any more. Also, having the time to care and do
           | everything to that precision for a single one-off type of job
           | vs doing it every day is a whole other level of discipline.
        
       | briffle wrote:
       | Every time you see an article about "we cant find enough
       | employees" its like they need to also include a second half of
       | that sentance: "to match our requirements, at the wages we want
       | to pay".
        
       | mdorazio wrote:
       | My brother is in HVAC, so my perspective on this is biased, but
       | in general there's a blue collar shortage because the job still
       | sucks.
       | 
       | First, you have pretty high barriers to entry in the form of
       | apprenticeships and per-state licensing requirements. Then you
       | have the shit hours and shit customers that expect those shit
       | hours. My brother got angry calls from customers because he dared
       | to say no when they wanted him to ditch his daughter's birthday
       | party on a Saturday to go fix their AC immediately. Then you have
       | the actual pay which just isn't that great unless you're an
       | established business owner with a good clientele - as others have
       | pointed out (and the article itself points out), the real pay
       | after you sort through all the outlier stories is pretty low.
       | 
       | So, option A is you go to college, immediately get a job with
       | zero hurdles up front, sit behind a desk from 9-5, and collect a
       | solid paycheck. Option B is you go to trade school, then make
       | next to nothing apprenticing for years, then you make somewhere
       | around median income while driving a truck all over the place
       | working in shitty conditions and getting chewed out by people who
       | expect you to be available 24/7.
        
         | jackcosgrove wrote:
         | Not to mention the dating and marriage prospects without a
         | college degree, even if you outearn a degree holder, are worse.
        
         | lotsofpulp wrote:
         | > My brother is in HVAC, so my perspective on this is biased,
         | but in general there's a blue collar shortage because the job
         | still sucks.
         | 
         | It is not biased, it is common sense. The barrier to entry to
         | being an electrician is sufficiently low in the sense that many
         | people have the natural ability to learn and physically do the
         | work.
         | 
         | That must mean the pay to quality of life ratio is insufficient
         | to attract enough workers (including excessively low pay to
         | quality of life ratio during training).
        
         | elbigbad wrote:
         | > shit customers that expect those shit hours. My brother got
         | angry calls from customers because he dared to say no when they
         | wanted him to ditch his daughter's birthday party on a Saturday
         | to go fix their AC immediately.
         | 
         | Somewhat cautiously optimistically I think this sort of
         | behavior will slowly disappear, one funeral at a time, as the
         | Boomer generation finds the urn. I do not know or know of a
         | single millennial in my first or second order groups that would
         | ever dare to treat any service/blue collar person with anything
         | but the utmost respect and deference.
        
           | stcroixx wrote:
           | Wow, what's the secret to being so awesome? A whole
           | generation just gets it.
        
             | Arrath wrote:
             | Growing up, my dad would always reply "If I was in that
             | much of a hurry, I would have come in yesterday." whenever
             | e.g. a bank teller or cashier or whoever apologized for a
             | slight delay. That kind of laid back attitude really took
             | hold with me. Over the years I have realized that the rush
             | and push really just adds stress (both to yourself and
             | others) for no true benefit. Just as how for the average
             | commute, speeding will generally save you at most a few
             | minutes.
             | 
             | To the GP's point about screaming at HVAC folks to come fix
             | their equipment right now? Currently I'm waiting for a
             | service guy to come look at my swamp cooler, when I reached
             | out he was 10 days out thanks to being quite busy this time
             | of year. To be expected, certainly. Sure, maybe I'll spend
             | a day or two a little more uncomfortable than I might
             | otherwise be since the cooler is not in service and its
             | forecast to get warmer in the coming days, but what of it?
             | Short term uncomfort is no big deal, maybe I'll sweat a
             | little. I can always turn a fan on and take a cold shower.
             | My grandparents didn't even have the luxury of a swamp
             | cooler.
             | 
             | I spend enough of my day under the gun of project managers,
             | lawyers, owner's reps and schedulers all breathing down my
             | neck to gain a day or two on a schedule, to make up for a
             | delay that ate into float. That stress just isn't cool, I
             | won't turn around and pass it on to anyone else, especially
             | if they're going to be doing something good for me.
        
             | uoaei wrote:
             | Growing up in a time when the to-be-inherited extractivist
             | mindset was challenged by the broad-range scarcity of
             | affordable housing and other necessities caused by those
             | who were extracting before they had capital to work with.
        
           | calculatte wrote:
           | I wonder which generation would have small children around
           | this time. 75 year old boomers or 28 year old millenials?
           | Must be the boomers
        
             | elbigbad wrote:
             | calculatte said: " I wonder which generation would have
             | small children around this time. 75 year old boomers or 28
             | year old millenials? Must be the boomers"
             | 
             | I'm picking up sarcasm here, maybe mistakenly. The person
             | being yelled at to leave his daughter's birthday party was
             | not the Boomer here. The Boomer was the person making
             | unreasonable and hostile demands that the person leave his
             | daughter's birthday party.
        
         | DrThunder wrote:
         | Option A only exists for a select few STEM degrees. Otherwise,
         | that solid paycheck doesn't really exist for a 4 year degree.
         | 
         | Option B means you're getting paid while learning instead of
         | shelling out $50k+ for a 4 year degree.
         | 
         | "Shitty condtions" is subjective. A lot of people would call
         | staring at a screen in a cube, under harsh fluorescent lights
         | while breathing in your coworkers farts and getting obese from
         | zero movement shitty.
         | 
         | Also, you're severely underestimating what kinda money a
         | tradesman can bring in. It's on par/better than a lot of 4 year
         | degree holders without the debt part.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | xattt wrote:
         | > First, you have pretty high barriers to entry in the form of
         | apprenticeships and per-state licensing requirements.
         | 
         | Your brother's story can also be applied to the shortage of
         | nurses/allied health staff in Canada.
        
         | antisthenes wrote:
         | > So, option A is you go to college, immediately get a job with
         | zero hurdles up front, sit behind a desk from 9-5, and collect
         | a solid paycheck.
         | 
         | Ask the cohort of 2008-2011 how well that worked out for them.
         | 
         | And in case it isn't obvious for someone - that's been the
         | largest labor participation rate drop in modern history. On top
         | of that, many people with college degrees from that period
         | never actually landed a well-paying job and are still stuck in
         | service and low-wage manual labor jobs.
         | 
         | I bet many of them would have loved to have a trade job
         | instead.
         | 
         | Meanwhile, HVAC guys near me charge $700 to run a thermostat
         | wire 5 feet.
         | 
         | I mean maybe it sucks to work trades in a low COL area, but the
         | tradesmen where I live make bank and have no trouble charging
         | $80+/hr
        
           | HeyLaughingBoy wrote:
           | How many hours per week are they billing?
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | And how many hours do they spend traveling from place to
             | place? I suspect the total pay divided by total hours is
             | nowhere near as impressive, even assuming they are W-2
             | employees with a full set of tax advantaged benefits that a
             | usual white collar employee would have.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | com2kid wrote:
           | > I mean maybe it sucks to work trades in a low COL area, but
           | the tradesmen where I live make bank and have no trouble
           | charging $80+/hr
           | 
           | My neighbor just paid $100 an hour to have his fence painted.
           | 
           | Actual tradesmen earn a lot more. I've talked to more than
           | one plumber who has a _really_ nice house, better than
           | anything I can afford as a software engineer, unless I get
           | lucky with stock options at some point.
        
         | aidenn0 wrote:
         | Everyone I know who does blue collar work echoes what you said.
         | 
         | It's pretty broken on the other side of things too, presumably
         | because the work sucks so much and is so variable that they are
         | incentivized to milk every penny from those who appear like
         | they can afford it.
         | 
         | As a busy professional homeowner that is well-paid, I would
         | gladly pay 50% more than the current going rate in town to know
         | that a decent, workmanlike job would be done.
         | 
         | The quality of the work is completely decoupled from the rates
         | charged though, which kind of makes sense, as there are plenty
         | of people in town who need HVAC/plumbing/electrical &c. work
         | done who can't afford to pay over the going rate.
         | 
         | It took me a decade to find a plumber that is honest (luckily
         | they do decent work as well, but honest was hard enough of a
         | bar to reach).
        
         | cashsterling wrote:
         | Counter anecdote...
         | 
         | A good friend of mine in HS did one semester of college, said
         | "nope. not for me" and became an electrician. Fast forward ~30
         | years, he planning on retiring in a few years (could retire now
         | if he wanted to).
         | 
         | He's smart, worked hard, learned and taught himself as much as
         | possible. Took & passed all tests asap, got his contractor's
         | license asap, etc. Branched out to learn industrial controls
         | and electrical too.
         | 
         | I think pursuing a trade can be a really good way to go... but
         | you need to go into it planning to learn & teach yourself and
         | push the excel.
         | 
         | I know welders who make >200k USD a year working 4-6 months a
         | year. They are crazy skilled and know their craft inside and
         | out... they know more metallurgical science than me (and way
         | more practical knowledge about metal alloys) and I was chemical
         | and materials engineering major.
         | 
         | I know a master carpenter/craftsman who makea >500k a year,
         | profit, doing high end cabinets, woodworking, furniture,
         | building, kitchen remodels, etc.
        
         | balderdash wrote:
         | > Then you have the shit hours and shit customers that expect
         | those shit hours.
         | 
         | Not saying this is your brother's situation - but pretty much
         | all of the HVAC companies I've dealt with tout their emergency
         | repair services (if not 24/7 availability), and many of them
         | include that when you buy a new HVAC system - so it seems
         | pretty rational to expect those service provider to honor their
         | claims
        
       | meetingthrower wrote:
       | It's a truly amazing market failure. Up here in New England, you
       | can't get an electrician for love or money. And if you do, you
       | are paying $75 an hour for the lowliest apprentice.
       | 
       | But you go on Reddit, and the poor schlubs in the rest of the
       | country are making <$20 an hour to start. You can make more at
       | McDonalds.
       | 
       | I talked to a friend of mine who runs a big corp electrician unit
       | for a utility. He cannot hire anyone at the rates he wants to
       | pay, and says he cannot pay them market because then he'd "have
       | to reset the comp for his entire 100 man crew." The journeymen
       | coming in are asking for more than supervisor pay (and they
       | should be getting it!)
       | 
       | I predict we are in for more inflation as this works its way
       | through the system.
        
         | lotsofpulp wrote:
         | > It's a truly amazing market failure.
         | 
         | > He cannot hire anyone at the rates he wants to pay, and says
         | he cannot pay them market because then he'd "have to reset the
         | comp for his entire 100 man crew."
         | 
         | A buyer not being able to afford what they want to buy is not
         | market failure. Your friend cannot pay market rate either
         | because the business they are in is no longer viable, or the
         | business is inefficient (paying extra for someone or something
         | it could be paying less).
        
         | wizofaus wrote:
         | Curious...why are his 100 man crew sticking with him if they're
         | currently getting well under market rate?
        
           | meetingthrower wrote:
           | Humans don't like change.
        
           | vkou wrote:
           | Because when nobody actually pays market rate, market rate is
           | what he pays them.
        
           | Panzer04 wrote:
           | Security, comfort, etc. there's a reason many businesses
           | habitually underpay - many don't leave regardless of pay.
        
         | GalenErso wrote:
         | This is where YouTube and DIY forums come in. It doesn't
         | require advanced knowledge to perform most electrical repairs
         | and maintenance oneself, and young people's practical skills
         | have atrophied compared to their parents and grandparents at
         | the same age, and I say this as one of those young people.
        
           | meetingthrower wrote:
           | Hah! Exactly. You are talking to a guy who GCed his own house
           | build, all trained off YouTube. And I've done a LOT of
           | electrical as part of it. (But for the sake of speed I hired
           | a crew to get the house wired up in 2 weeks. Also needed them
           | for permits / inspections since it was a new build.)
        
           | SoftTalker wrote:
           | Yes I can't really think of any electrical job around the
           | house that I could not do myself. Calling in an electrician
           | to change an outlet is expensive because such trivial work is
           | boring and they don't really want to do it. Sort of like
           | hiring a senior developer to change a heading on a web page.
           | So they charge a lot. They also have to cover the cost of
           | travel to and from the house, even to change a $5 wall
           | outlet.
        
           | KRAKRISMOTT wrote:
           | The issue is "on the job" training. Law, medicine,
           | accounting, plumbing, welding, electrical, civil engineering
           | all requires a certain amount of "working hours" measured in
           | months and years before they let you take the
           | certification/licensing exam. You can't always do it yourself
           | and stay compliant with regulatory codes. This is a big
           | problem because it allows existing players to exploit and
           | play gatekeeper. Get rid of this requirement and many labor
           | shortage issues will sort itself out. Don't allow
           | institutions to be the gatekeeper. The certification exams
           | are sufficient.
        
           | PKop wrote:
           | Partially because those parents and grandparents didn't think
           | it necessary to teach them anything. At least there is
           | YouTube now
        
           | lutorm wrote:
           | It requires a license though, otherwise it's illegal in most
           | places. Youtube can't help with that.
        
           | gota wrote:
           | That is true - but the few hours I'd have to invest in this
           | are better spent doing something else (or nothing at all,
           | which is valuable).
           | 
           | And I don't need to do these repairs and maintenance at a
           | frequency which would make learnings 'stick'.
           | 
           | Furthermore, I am afraid (or 'excessively cautious') of
           | electricity, although that might stem from ignorance
           | 
           | In contrast, I've learned to be my own accountant, of sorts,
           | because I have to deal with it frequently enough, and have
           | never heard of a person dying or becoming gravely injured
           | from dealing with a spreadsheet in error
        
       | samtho wrote:
       | I apprenticed as an electrician in California briefly as my
       | father was in construction. I decided quickly that I did not like
       | crawling in hot attics, getting bit by black widows, and (worse
       | of all) dealing with customers who think this is a minimum wage
       | job.
        
       | rcarr wrote:
       | At this point in my life, I think I would quite happily become a
       | tradie. Would anyone pay me a living wage whilst I was an
       | apprentice? No. Will the government top up my wages so I can
       | survive whilst on the apprenticeship? No. Will the government
       | offer free or subsidised training so I can learn in my spare time
       | whilst working another job? No.
       | 
       | Will the government give a bunch of money away to their mates in
       | dodgy covid contracts? Yes. Will they let bankers get away with
       | tanking the entire economy? Yes. Will they do anything and
       | everything they possibly can to support landlords who don't offer
       | anything productive to the economy? Yes.
       | 
       | In the words of the Joker, you get what you fucking deserve.
        
         | Panzer04 wrote:
         | The clear best option would be to get rid of the apprenticeship
         | system - test for what they actually care about, greatly
         | shorten the working experience period (engineers have to do
         | 3-6mo on an education). If it was possible to get a sparky
         | license in 3-6 months I'd probably do it!
        
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