[HN Gopher] Giant SpaceX Spiral Appears Amid the Aurora Lights i...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Giant SpaceX Spiral Appears Amid the Aurora Lights in Alaska's
       Night Sky
        
       Author : dxs
       Score  : 254 points
       Date   : 2023-04-18 13:18 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (petapixel.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (petapixel.com)
        
       | andsens wrote:
       | > Those were the best hours of blissful bewilderment.
       | 
       | What a fantastic alliteration to describe his state of mind :-)
        
       | rolph wrote:
       | no joke intended, that rocket flew over my cabin and knocked
       | stuff off the shelves.
       | 
       | one earthquake did that about three years ago, had it not been
       | for the subsequent hardening , i would have lost my preserves to
       | a rocket.
        
         | mlindner wrote:
         | I'm not sure what you're claiming. Rockets cannot cause
         | shockwaves on the ground by flying over you in space. You
         | experienced something else and misattributed it.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | rolph wrote:
           | you are quite wrong about that, and im sure it wasnt "in
           | space".
           | 
           | i live in a place between two major installations, and see
           | uncommon things often. [such as X-45 variants
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_X-45]
           | 
           | this happened a little before 2:00 hours saturday morning,
           | and was the loudest thing ive ever heard and felt in my life,
           | and was definately not an earthquake, or a hurricane, i saw
           | the spiral.
        
             | mlindner wrote:
             | It was in space though. You're misattributing it.
        
               | rolph wrote:
               | so what altitude was it maintaining when it went over
               | alaska?
        
             | dabluecaboose wrote:
             | I'm sorry, but you're definitely misattributing this. The
             | rocket in question was launched from Vandenburg SFB in
             | California. It was not close enough to you by the time it
             | reached Alaska to have knocked anything off a shelf.
        
               | rolph wrote:
               | so it didnt fly over central matsu valley, denali range
               | and delta junction?
               | 
               | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/18/northern-
               | lig...
               | 
               | perhaps you could enlighten me with a trajectory during
               | launch, and during stage recovery. im not the only one
               | that saw the spiral, and i had nieghbours on the next
               | ridge that were disturbed by it as well, they thought the
               | noise was my fuel exploding.
        
               | dabluecaboose wrote:
               | No, it definitely did fly over you. I apologize that I
               | was unclear in my earlier comment. I meant to say "It was
               | not close enough to you _by the time it was over Alaska_
               | " since it was a polar launch (Northward)
               | 
               | I'm not telling you that you didn't see the spiral, I'm
               | telling you that there's no physical way that it could
               | have knocked anything off your shelf from the upper
               | atmosphere.
        
               | rolph wrote:
               | so 50-60 miles is recognized as the edge of space, is
               | that too far for a shockwave to travel?
               | 
               | im looking at the idea this was re-entry shock from an
               | jettisoned booster stage, either that or there was
               | someonelse , using the spaceX as cover for thier own
               | launch, but i havnt heard about anything from Kodiak.
        
               | dabluecaboose wrote:
               | It's difficult to say what precise altitude it was at,
               | but the spiral formation is from the final booster stage
               | jettisoning fuel so that it doesn't explode on re-entry.
               | That means, in very broad terms, the spacecraft and the
               | booster were likely in the low earth orbit regime, and
               | likely just under orbital velocity for the spacecraft.
               | 
               | Given that the spiral had a northward azimuth from Delta
               | Junction (as per the article) the draining happened after
               | it had already passed overhead, and it was likely very
               | far away when it actually re-entered. At an inclination
               | in line with Vandenburg, it likely landed in the Pacific.
               | 
               | I am an astrodynamicist but my work in launch dynamics is
               | a bit rusty, so bear with me if my off-the-cuff estimates
               | are off.
        
               | rolph wrote:
               | that seems to describe the path, the [sound] intensity
               | was in sync with the path of the spiral.
        
             | beefok wrote:
             | https://earthquake.alaska.edu/event/0234u0lcjp
             | 
             | https://earthquake.alaska.edu/event/0234u01ap5
             | 
             | Would it have been around this time? I'd be interested to
             | know if their seismographs can be used to detect non-
             | earthquake recordings.
             | 
             | When I was little I lived less than an hour from Cape
             | Canaveral and damn, when those shuttle missions launched,
             | you'd feel it in your bones. I'm not sure how it would feel
             | if it were just in the air crossing my path though.
        
               | rolph wrote:
               | 2nd link would be the closest but not, the right time.
               | there was definately acoustic energy, in the air, this
               | wasnt ground tremor, it was distinctly different, and the
               | volume followed the appearance, zenith, and dissapearance
               | of the spiral.
               | 
               | it was not a snowquake either, and it wasnt from Clear,
               | or Elmo.
        
       | cs702 wrote:
       | Cool visual effect, apparently created by emission of excess fuel
       | by SpaceX rockets with Starlink payloads. Great photo.
       | 
       | Make sure to watch the video too, taken by an all-sky camera run
       | by the University of Alaska. The video shows the spiral as it
       | starts forming at ~1:30. The spiral expands to cover much of the
       | sky, and then dissipates -- all in just a few seconds.
        
         | yread wrote:
         | I find the northern lights captured by the camera much more
         | interesting than the rocket spiral
        
         | tqkxzugoaupvwqr wrote:
         | In 6-7 minutes real time (see timestamp bottom right). The
         | video is sped up.
        
           | cs702 wrote:
           | Sorry, yes. That's what I meant. Thanks! :-)
        
         | dmix wrote:
         | Another example
         | 
         | https://youtube.com/shorts/9SZY_QEozWw?feature=share
        
         | aardvarkr wrote:
         | Thanks for including the time stamp. That's a pretty amazing
         | sight to witness
        
       | Uptrenda wrote:
       | We really are living in the future... and it happened so fast.
       | It's like on one of those empire games where you research the
       | space age and get access to crazy tech. We are now capable of so
       | many advanced feats. It feels like only a few years ago were
       | primitive compared to today. What will tomorrow have? Personal
       | space ships? Underwater houses? Houses for sale on other planets?
       | Service robots? It's mind blowing...
        
         | unixgoddess wrote:
         | yeah, a future that chokes on pollution, constantly on the
         | brink of annihilation by ever more powerful weapons, with
         | freedom ever more vanishing under growing mass control
         | systems... all so you can have some silly gadgets that you'll
         | get bored with in a day, always chasing for the next shining
         | toy
        
         | monkaiju wrote:
         | God if this is the future, I dont want it...
         | 
         | Despite so much technology we still have so much precarity and
         | poverty with new massive destabilizations happening every day.
         | What a nightmare
        
         | JohnFen wrote:
         | It doesn't feel that way at all to me, honestly. Aside from
         | (maybe -- it's legitimately hard to tell) advances in AI, and
         | cell phones, there hasn't been any earth-shaking advance that
         | makes times in my past seem primitive to me.
        
           | monkaiju wrote:
           | I hate to say it but yeah, like smartphones are maybe the
           | only thing I feel I've really experienced in my life that
           | made a big impact. And even those came with way more
           | downsides than I would've hoped.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | The 1950s called and wants it's meme back. Seriously, though,
         | the 50s promised flying cars, personal jet packs, moon bases,
         | etc. They were so convinced cars would fly, they all came with
         | wings on them =) Houses underwater was a thing they thought
         | were right around the corner as well. It really reads like you
         | just picked up a Scientific American magazine issue from your
         | doctor's office lobby that's from the 50s.
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | > They were so convinced cars would fly, they all came with
           | wings on them
           | 
           | I think that styling trend was due to making them look like
           | jet aircraft. The taillights mimicked jet exhaust pipes
           | closely. Even the front grille was often fashioned to look
           | like a turbine intake.
           | 
           | Jet engines were some of the coolest, most visible, and most
           | advanced tech in the 50s.
        
           | phpisthebest wrote:
           | Anyone remember or watch 90's TV Show Seaquest DSV. its
           | timeline had us living in underwater stations by now.
        
             | Gordonjcp wrote:
             | Octonauts is the Seaquest DSV reboot we didn't know we
             | needed.
        
             | jhpankow wrote:
             | Unfortunately Sealab 2021 was more accurate in predicting
             | the future.
        
               | Paul-Craft wrote:
               | I'd say _Biodome_ and _Idiocracy_ were far, far more
               | accurate.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | And Idiocracy is a hopeful movie -- it shows how an
               | enlightened leader (Herbert Camacho) can actually help
               | society move out of a collapse (that feels more and more
               | likely to happen in real life).
        
               | LargoLasskhyfv wrote:
               | Not really. Because at the end some annoyed pimp called
               | _Upgrayedd_ tunnels there through time. Presumably to
               | pursue an upgrade for his revenue stream.
               | 
               | Fuck yeah!
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | Yeah, but if you're Not Sure, then it's really hard to
               | convince other people as well though.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Idiocracy got the timeline wrong so, Star Trek and co
               | assumed we are much faster, Idiocracy assumed we are much
               | slower.
        
               | Izkata wrote:
               | Star Trek's DS9 episodes featuring Sanctuary Districts
               | were set in 2024, and Star Trek's WWIII started around
               | 2026. We're kinda on track.
        
               | Loughla wrote:
               | I was joking with friends, that it appeared that people
               | saw shows like Star Trek and Star Wars, and thought -
               | hey, we can do that.
               | 
               | The problem is that politicians and governments saw shows
               | like Idiocracy and Space Balls, and thought - hey, we can
               | do _that_.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Star Trek convinced me that keyboards spit out sparks and
               | smoke and throw you across the room if you type in
               | illogic.
        
               | Loughla wrote:
               | If only.
        
               | codebje wrote:
               | Star Wars is pretty dystopian in every era shown in the
               | movies. Even at the height of the Galactic Republic large
               | areas of the outer rim have people living in poverty and
               | outright slavery. Coruscant appears nice, but a little
               | below the surface criminal gangs are running the place
               | with most of the planet's population never even seeing
               | sunlight.
               | 
               | Plus the powerful elite tapped into the discontent that
               | they'd created in order to further their own power, then
               | crushed the useful idiots who rebelled against the
               | oppression and doubled down with more oppression.
        
             | matthewmcg wrote:
             | Boy that takes me back. I liked to think that Roy Scheider
             | was playing the same character he played in _Jaws_.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | oceanplexian wrote:
           | > The 1950s called and wants it's meme back. Seriously,
           | though, the 50s promised flying cars, personal jet packs,
           | moon bases, etc.
           | 
           | Maybe they were right but a little off on the timeline. For
           | example there was a lot of crazy tech that people thought
           | would take off in the 90s and flopped, but are now a reality
           | (Online shopping, smartphones, electric vehicles).
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | > Seriously, though, the 50s promised flying cars, personal
           | jet packs,
           | 
           | You can buy those, they're just expensive to buy, to run, to
           | insure, and to learn how to operate.
           | 
           | But you _can_ buy them.
        
             | jjulius wrote:
             | They're also, more often than not, far more limited in
             | scope and capabilities than their imaginative 50's
             | counterparts.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | i want my flying car that collapses and folds up into a
               | briefcase like in the Jetsons. parking should be that
               | easy
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Watch the Jetsons. You'd be surprised at how many of
               | their futuristic gadgets we have today.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | Yeah, and, so? We don't have the briefcase car and that's
               | what I want. Don't come with your whataboutisms and try
               | to make me accept less. Your games are transparent!
        
               | garryindiana wrote:
               | [dead]
        
             | snovv_crash wrote:
             | The future has arrived, it just isn't evenly distributed
             | yet. - William Gibson
        
               | mholm wrote:
               | And soon, it'll be smeared out into a broad global layer
               | of what a Pakistani brickmaker would consider to be
               | prosperity - Neal Stephenson
        
           | Aperocky wrote:
           | Futurologist back then must have placed almost no importance
           | on the cost of energy.
           | 
           | Might be due to the fact that man made energy was quite a new
           | thing and it's getting cheaper quite fast and seemingly
           | boundless.
           | 
           | Like Moores law. It ends eventually.
        
             | HPsquared wrote:
             | There are still a couple of orders of magnitude within
             | reach, if we can commercialize molten salt reactors. After
             | that, solar power in space (using asteroid or lunar mining)
             | for gargantuan scale.
        
             | AYBABTME wrote:
             | The cost of energy would have been less of a problem
             | without nuclear scare.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | The price of energy dropped continuously and exponentially
             | from 1873-1973, and ~1973 is the start of the "great
             | stagnation".
             | 
             | The price of energy recently resumed its exponential cost
             | reduction, but only for those who have access to solar
             | energy. Hopefully those cost reductions result in price
             | reductions for the rest of us soon.
        
           | kitsunesoba wrote:
           | Sometimes I wish I could've been around to experience that
           | kind of forward-looking optimism. I got a small taste of it
           | in the mid-late 90s, but from the looks of it, 90s futurism
           | was rather tame in comparison.
        
             | KineticLensman wrote:
             | I'm just old enough to remember the massive optimism
             | associated with the Apollo program (I was a space-obsessed
             | nerd kid). The mid to late 70s though were depressing by
             | comparison, without the rapid cadence of the moonshots.
        
               | Broken_Hippo wrote:
               | .... and in the next decade, I saw the Challenger blow up
               | in an elementary school gymnasium.
        
           | lucideer wrote:
           | Particularly applicable given we also had spaceflight in the
           | 50s...
        
         | franky47 wrote:
         | If you're a billionaire, maybe.
         | 
         | For everyone else, the current climate trajectory doesn't bode
         | well.
        
         | tediousdemise wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
         | IAmGraydon wrote:
         | If we don't kill ourselves in the next 100 years, I think the
         | future will be pretty amazing. We're passing through the end
         | stages of the Great Filter currently. This is the part where
         | we're sufficiently advanced to create technologies that can
         | destroy the planet (like nuclear weapons) but not advanced
         | enough to shed our ancient animal instincts of war, conquest
         | and power. I personally do not think we will make it through
         | unless there is a greater power (civilization) looking out for
         | us. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
        
           | tediousdemise wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
           | wongarsu wrote:
           | Within in the next ~100 years we will advance to a state
           | where nuclear weapons taking out one planet won't kill our
           | civilization outright anymore, and within the next 200-500
           | years we might reach a point where even war across an entire
           | solar system won't be enough.
           | 
           | There's the risk that we will develop stronger weapons to
           | match our increasing resilience, but on the other hand in the
           | last 100 years we've made good progress on either outlawing
           | many weapons of mass destruction or at least making their
           | development much harder, so there's hope.
        
             | lm28469 wrote:
             | > we will ... we will ... we will
             | 
             | Not much more substantiated than what people believe will
             | be the return of Christ, it's all sci-fi
             | 
             | Not much fundamentally changed in the last 100 years, even
             | a nuclear reactor is just a fancy steam engine. We're
             | closer to horse carriages than a solar system wide
             | civilization
        
             | qikInNdOutReply wrote:
             | The problem is that planetary civilization is inherantly
             | fragile to those living up outside the gravity well. Every
             | depressed belter asteroid-trucker with a balistics
             | computer, can throw a garbage can at earth or mars at speed
             | and end planetary civilization.
        
               | CyberDildonics wrote:
               | I think you're confusing reality with science fiction.
        
               | philwelch wrote:
               | Rods from god are roughly as powerful as nukes, which is
               | bad but a single nuke wouldn't end planetary
               | civilization. If the belters were able to throw things at
               | relativistic speeds you'd have a problem, but there's
               | also no stealth in space so it's feasible to monitor
               | space traffic around a large planet and deflect anything
               | incoming, be it a projectile launched from longer range
               | or an untrusted, uninspected, shady-looking belter ship.
        
               | stametseater wrote:
               | I think rods from gods is oversold. The classic version
               | of this is a "telephone pole of tungsten", or something
               | along the lines of a 6 meter long cylinder, 0.3 meters
               | across, which works out to 0.42 cubic meters of tungsten,
               | which would be just over 8000 kilograms. If you do the
               | math, rods coming in at orbit speeds are barely worth
               | talking about; the actual rods from god USAF proposal had
               | these tungsten telephone poles starting in orbit and
               | impacting the ground at merely 3 km/s, equivalent to 11
               | tons of TNT.
               | 
               | Faster then: the kinetic energy of such a mass moving at
               | 12 km/s, faster than escape velocity, would be 'only' 137
               | tons of TNT, approximately 1/15th of the 2020 Beirut
               | explosion. Even if you throw the rods into the ground at
               | a blistering 50 km/s, that only gives you the equivalent
               | kinetic energy of 2.4 kilotons of TNT, or 1/6th of the
               | Little Boy nuclear bomb.
               | 
               | Then there are the terminal effects; such a tungsten rod
               | is basically an oversized armor piercing dart like tanks
               | shoot at each other. It will drive itself straight into
               | the ground and most of the rod's kinetic energy will be
               | spent pulverizing bedrock and itself. Such a weapon would
               | be great for taking out bunkers, but I think very
               | wasteful for any other purpose.
        
               | m4rtink wrote:
               | Anything small enough will just burn up in the atmosphere
               | and big stuff will be easy to detect, even at the boost
               | stage as the initial orbit change might take weeks or
               | months possibly.
               | 
               | Orbitals at predictable orbits and surfaceinstallations
               | on airless bodies might be more in danger though. There
               | even a well targeted fast crowbar might do quite some
               | damage.
        
               | justinclift wrote:
               | The "rod from space" just need to deflect the orbit of an
               | already existing large asteroid doesn't it?
               | 
               | Which would hopefully be detected in time to "solve" the
               | problem, but still... ;)
        
               | AlotOfReading wrote:
               | "just" is doing a lot of work there. It's a pretty
               | serious engineering effort to move rocks around the solar
               | system and unless you have unlimited-energy future tech,
               | you're probably stuck with the current paradigm of
               | nudging things slightly to take advantage of convoluted
               | gravity assists and small time windows to move things
               | about. It'd be a very slow and predictable weapon that we
               | already watch for.
        
               | myrmidon wrote:
               | This is complete BULLSHIT.
               | 
               | Your understanding of orbital dynamics is completely
               | off-- "asteroids" are not a viable antiplanetary weapon
               | and NEVER will be.
               | 
               | Changing the asteroid orbit costs you pretty much just as
               | much energy as your impact is worth-- so you could just
               | as well have launched the engine that is supposed to move
               | your asteroid, and exploded in on-target.
               | 
               | The whole subplot in _The Expanse_ only works because:
               | 
               | 1) The drive technology violates conservation of energy
               | and powers the impact (duh)
               | 
               | 2) The "stealth paint" which glosses over physical
               | impossibilities; You can't really hide over the whole
               | spectrum (how is your "paint" supposed to deal with
               | wavelengths that approach the object size?).
               | 
               | And both of the above are pure fantasy.
               | 
               | Better go play Kerbal space. And I seriously mean that--
               | it is going to give you a MUCH better intuitive
               | understanding of orbital dynamics than school or
               | university could ever provide.
        
               | wpasc wrote:
               | how dare you besmirch the Epstein drive
        
               | myrmidon wrote:
               | Don't get me wrong I obviously liked the books enough to
               | read them, but I still firmly believe that it is vitally
               | important for sci-fi authors to just shut up about
               | scientific details that our current understanding is not
               | equipped to provide.
               | 
               | There are books that are WAYY farther from our current
               | techlevel, like _Murderbot Diaries_ or _Ancillary
               | Justice_ , which handle this much better. I just don't
               | see how adding pseudoscience improves ANYTHING-- better
               | to just gloss over it.
        
               | stametseater wrote:
               | It's very far from practical technology, but in principle
               | you can use pieces of the asteroid as reaction mass to
               | 'cheat' the rocket equation. You could also modify the
               | asteroid's albedo or use solar sails to modify the
               | trajectory of the asteroid.
               | 
               |  _Very_ far from practical. Such a plot would probably
               | take centuries at least to carry out with reasonably
               | conceived technology.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | > Changing the asteroid orbit costs you pretty much just
               | as much energy as your impact is worth
               | 
               | It's about momentum, not energy. Near Earth, you can get
               | energy from the Sun quite easily, or fuel a nuclear
               | reactor with the asteroid.
               | 
               | Momentum is gathered by throwing reaction mass around.
               | And reaction mass is what asteroids are made of.
               | 
               | > The drive technology violates conservation of energy
               | 
               | Do they explain it somewhere? I always got the impression
               | it was a kicking-ass nuclear fusion engine.
        
               | myrmidon wrote:
               | > It's about momentum, not energy. Near Earth, you can
               | get energy from the Sun quite easily, or fuel a nuclear
               | reactor with the asteroid.
               | 
               | I'm not sure if you're being deliberately obtuse.
               | Momentum does absolutely nothing for you by itself-- it
               | does not even affect penetration depth of your asteroid.
               | 
               | The only thing momentum does is that it scales with speed
               | (hint: like kinetic energy).
               | 
               | If you have enough fuel for a nuclear reactor to throw
               | pieces of asteroid into space, then MAAAYYYYYBE just
               | launch nuke at the planet?!
               | 
               | Because that is:
               | 
               | 1) Easier to build
               | 
               | 2) Simpler
               | 
               | 3) Harder to detect
               | 
               | 4) Harder to defend against
               | 
               | edit: Sorry for the tone. This whole topic just really
               | infuriates me because I absolutely can not understand how
               | anyone with even elementary physics education could ever
               | defend this concept as viable...
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | > The only thing momentum does is that it scales with
               | speed
               | 
               | And mass...
               | 
               | If you have a fixed amount of energy, the amount of
               | destruction you can create on your target is a complex
               | function of how much delta-v you need. But the maximum is
               | never on the extreme of "just emit all the energy there
               | at once". It can always improve by adding some mass.
               | 
               | On those other comparisons, you probably have a point,
               | assuming the people tech looks like the things we can
               | imagine at realistic sci-fi.
        
               | plasticchris wrote:
               | If you do play kerbal you know that getting a big
               | circular orbit to become a very eccentric one (if you
               | don't care about reentry speed which is a feature here)
               | is pretty cheap. Now just make that eccentric orbit
               | intersect the target's orbital path and boom.
        
               | myrmidon wrote:
               | > If you do play kerbal you know that getting a big
               | circular orbit to become a very eccentric one (if you
               | don't care about reentry speed which is a feature here)
               | is pretty cheap
               | 
               | No its not?!
               | 
               | Simply getting a flyby from one planetary orbit to
               | another is _exactly_ the kind of expensive that I 'm
               | talking about, and thats basically what you get on
               | impact.
        
               | plasticchris wrote:
               | But the asteroid does not start in planetary orbit.
        
             | sam_goody wrote:
             | Iran is getting closer to nuclear weapons, and they sure
             | seem to be dead set on using them.
             | 
             | (OT: I do not understand the U.S. policy in this, but
             | _surely_ they are doing everything in their power to
             | prevent that, since this will affect, like, everything.
             | _Right_?!)
             | 
             | And, the tension between the U.S. / NATO vs. Russia / China
             | / Iran / (Brazil ?) has lessened, but it certainly it isn't
             | gone. How optimistic are you?
        
               | wongarsu wrote:
               | We went from 4-5 countries getting nuclear weapons in the
               | first 15 years, and an era of about 60 nuclear tests each
               | year in the 30 years after that, to the current era where
               | it's about one country every 10-20 years gaining nuclear
               | weapons and basically no tests happening. I'd say that's
               | a massive improvement.
               | 
               | We've also mostly stopped with firebombing, and have
               | seriously dialed back the chemical and biological weapons
               | that were much more popular in the WWI/WWII era.
        
               | sam_goody wrote:
               | > one country every 10-20 years gaining nuclear weapons
               | and basically no tests happening
               | 
               | This past week had a test in both N. Korea and Iran, so I
               | don't think that is accurate.
               | 
               | > I'd say that's a massive improvement.
               | 
               | Oh, yes sure it's an improvement. But if we only have two
               | countries intent on starting a nuclear war, thats already
               | enough to hose the whole planet. And I am far from
               | confident that we can safely say we aren't there.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | stametseater wrote:
               | > _This past week had a test in both N. Korea and Iran_
               | 
               | Neither of these happened.
               | 
               | North Korea tested a missile which could be used to
               | deliver a nuke, they haven't tested any nukes since 2017.
               | I don't know what Iran tested, but it certainly wasn't a
               | nuke. The only news of a missile test from Iran this week
               | that I can find is them testing an anti-tank missile,
               | which obviously isn't even meant to deliver nukes.
        
           | yowzadave wrote:
           | Why do you think we're at the end stages of the Great Filter?
           | Isn't it plausible that, as technology grows cheaper and more
           | powerful, it will become easier for smaller and smaller
           | groups to obtain world-killing abilities?
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | specialist wrote:
             | Ya, we're in the beginning stages of The Great Filter.
        
               | piyh wrote:
               | A bunch of medium sized filters can look a lot like a
               | great filter.
        
             | aaroninsf wrote:
             | I think the implicit premise in the GF theory is that it's
             | "adapt or die," i.e. either our civilization/species
             | develops truly robust means of preventing mis-application
             | of high-leverage technologies, or, it goes extinct. Most
             | likely.
             | 
             | But I agree, it's a process, not a state machine.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | croes wrote:
         | We do still the same in terms of space travel, starts just got
         | cheaper but we are no way nearer to colonize any planets
         | 
         | And our newest toy is a machine mimicking human written texts.
         | 
         | AR and VR like in books in movies are also not reach, self
         | driving cars aren"t really a thing just like flying taxis.
         | 
         | It's more self-deception than future.
         | 
         | Climate change and it's consequences like new diseases will be
         | problems we be the real yardstick of human capabilities.
        
       | qikInNdOutReply wrote:
       | Reminds me of the sords in crest of the stars.
        
       | zzzeek wrote:
       | "SpaceX rockets are designed to land back on Earth but the second
       | stage of the Falcon 9 does not parachute down to the ground.
       | Instead, it burns up in the atmosphere but before doing so it
       | vents its unused fuel which will often take the form of a
       | stunning spiral. "
       | 
       | so...we are marveling at how awesome it looks to dump rocket fuel
       | into the atmosphere? cool, cool
        
         | shadowgovt wrote:
         | Yes, much as we marvel at rocks slicing into the upper
         | atmosphere, solar particle radiation being magnetically bottle-
         | slammed into the poles, and dirty snowballs a hundred million
         | miles away boiling in proximity to the sun.
         | 
         | Humans marvel at all kinds of cool-looking things.
        
         | 0xDEF wrote:
         | The Falcon 9 second stage uses highly refined jet fuel and
         | liquid oxygen. But it is an absolute trivial amount. The
         | airline industry emits more GHG in a minutes.
         | 
         | The reason it is visually spectacular is not because it is
         | burning but because the fume is reflecting sunlight. Rockets
         | that only emit water vapor have caused similar spirals.
        
           | Symmetry wrote:
           | And most competing launch providers use solid boosters whose
           | emissions are way worse via damage to the ozone layer.
        
         | NotYourLawyer wrote:
         | It's kerosene and liquid oxygen. It's not like they're dumping
         | hydrazine.
        
           | kortex wrote:
           | Even if it was hydrazine or UDMH, the half-life of molecules
           | in the upper stratosphere is months/years, anything in the
           | mesosphere isn't coming back down before photolysis breaks it
           | down into NO2, CO2 and H2O. NO2 isn't great for ozone, so
           | hydrazine usage in the mesosphere should be minimized, but
           | not many platforms are using hydrazine still. Oxykero is
           | totally fine.
        
         | arprocter wrote:
         | The article contradicts itself about what happens to the second
         | stage "it burns up in the atmosphere" and "deorbit and
         | eventually splash down in the Pacific"
         | 
         | Seems like the latter is correct (if it was going to 'burn up'
         | why would you need to dump fuel?) -
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Recovery_of_second_st...
         | 
         | I guess they figure it's better to let the fuel diffuse in the
         | atmosphere than poison the ocean, or less weight to be
         | recovered/sink
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | The fuel dump is to prevent explosions before reentry that
           | could damage the spacecraft it just delivered or create
           | unnecessary space debris.
           | 
           | https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2018/01/fuel-dump-of-
           | zumas-...
           | 
           | > Rocket stages always carry excess fuel, as you don't want
           | the engine to cut out prematurely by running out of fuel. So
           | it always has a sufficient fuel margin. Once its work is
           | done, this excess fuel is often vented, also known as
           | "depressurization".
           | 
           | > Depressurization and fuel venting avoids the risk of the
           | rocket stage blowing up, for example as a result of static
           | electricity building up in the rocket stage. You do not want
           | your rocket stage to blow up, as it creates an uncontrolable
           | swarm of debris and includes the risk that particles are
           | ejected into orbits where they do not decay quickly, adding
           | to the space debris risk.
           | 
           | As for burning up, it's a bit of both. Some material burns
           | up, some larger chunks splash into the ocean. Same thing
           | happened a while back when the US dropped bits of Skylab on
           | Australia. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-31/nasa-
           | skylab-fell-to-e...
        
         | viraptor wrote:
         | What's the expected impact of that much clean kerosene in open
         | air? It's dangerous to breathe in for people in closed spaces,
         | but I couldn't find any estimate of how much of the leftovers
         | would be dumped.
        
           | kortex wrote:
           | Zero. That's not even in the true atmosphere at that point.
           | The kerosene droplets will rapidly evaporate into free
           | molecules and then diffuse around the mesosphere/thermosphere
           | for months/years until radiation breaks it down into first
           | lighter hydrocarbons, then carbon dioxide and water.
        
           | gpm wrote:
           | Planes also dump a ton of kerosene into the air when they
           | need to land early. I'd assume orders of magnitude more than
           | rockets just because there are so many more of them.
           | 
           | They also dump it much, much, lower in the atmosphere. Where
           | people and other things are more likely to breathe it.
        
           | CommieBobDole wrote:
           | As close to none as possible, really - you're diluting
           | probably a ton of kerosene in five and a half quadrillion
           | tons of atmosphere. Plus it's happening ~150km up, mostly
           | outside the atmosphere, so it's got a long time to dilute
           | before it gets to anyone.
        
         | kortex wrote:
         | I mean, we've gone from stuck squarely on this rock to being
         | able to escape our gravity well in a geological blink of an
         | eye, so yeah, it's quite marvelous.
        
       | jtode wrote:
       | Ahh, maybe that's why my service has been spotty lately -
       | sattelites diverted to light shows.
        
       | stronglikedan wrote:
       | It looks really cool. And it's fleeting. And it looks really
       | cool. I'd love to see it in person some time. And it looks
       | _really_ cool. And to think it 's man made, and on a level with
       | the awe of nature. I'd love to travel all that way to see the
       | Aurora, _and then_ get treated to that as well. I don 't see the
       | problem.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | HenrikB wrote:
       | In the video on
       | https://vimeo.com/818040730?embedded=true&source=video_title...,
       | it appears around the 1m29s for a few seconds corresponding to
       | 08:46:54 - 09:57:09 UTC in real time.
        
       | rurp wrote:
       | I'm torn on this. On the one hand it's a really cool visual,
       | coming from some impressive engineering. On the other hand, I am
       | absolutely not looking forward to the night sky becoming filled
       | with light pollution.
        
         | agloe_dreams wrote:
         | I think you might be mixing up this with the actual Starlink
         | sats, which yeah, def pollution. This is from the second stage
         | reentry and only happens for a few minutes in a specific area.
         | Theoretically, Starship will not do this as both stages are
         | reusable...buuuut I imagine they will end up trashing a few
         | stages on the way to get there.
        
       | shadowgovt wrote:
       | When people complain about the effects rocketry and space
       | colonization will have on astronomy, this is what I think about.
       | 
       | Like... How many people complaining about the effects of Starlink
       | satellites have ever actually _seen_ a Starlink chain drift by,
       | like beads on an invisible string?
       | 
       | It's mesmerizing.
        
         | shpx wrote:
         | You would love pouring engine oil on a puddle. I recommend
         | doing it when it's windy, it's more interesting when it's being
         | pushed around.
        
         | dotancohen wrote:
         | I watch satellites deliberately. There's about an hour after
         | sunset, and another hour before sunrise, when most satellites
         | are visible. Between those hours, the satellites are in the
         | shadow of the Earth and not visible.
         | 
         | I've observed a Starlink chain (the second full chain launched)
         | after sunset, it was absolutely amazing _and inspiring_. I've
         | also tried to observe a chain that I knew was overhead about
         | midnight - and even as an experienced satellite watcher
         | actually looking for them and knowing where they were, I could
         | see nothing.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | subpixel wrote:
         | I saw one once and my immediate thought was that I hope such an
         | aberration of my natural view of the sky doesn't become common.
         | I would describe it as eery.
        
           | shadowgovt wrote:
           | Eerier than the infinite void with points of light suspended
           | in it by nothing at all?
        
             | subpixel wrote:
             | Eery like the beautiful display of color that oil reflcts
             | when it's suspended on water.
        
           | pjot wrote:
           | I think we're already past that point. I can hardly see stars
           | now given the amount of light pollution my city puts off.
           | Little dots zipping around won't change much.
        
             | philwelch wrote:
             | I think we're in an in-between stage--at some point, it'll
             | be within reach for people who want an uninterrupted view
             | of the night sky to catch a ride into orbit and just look
             | out the window up there.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | > it'll be within reach for people who want an
               | uninterrupted view of the night sky to catch a ride into
               | orbit
               | 
               | The thought that would be necessary just to see the night
               | sky depresses me beyond belief.
        
             | capableweb wrote:
             | The difference is that at least light pollution from the
             | ground/cities you can at least get away from by going to
             | remote places. The satellites you can't really do anything
             | about, they'll appear no matter where you go, even in the
             | middle of nowhere.
        
             | Beldin wrote:
             | Perhaps, if you were to move (as in: relocate), you might
             | find that we're not completely past this point yet.
        
               | pjot wrote:
               | At least in the US, over 80% of the population lives in
               | an urban area - practically speaking, we've passed the
               | mark.
        
         | buran77 wrote:
         | Cars were mesmerizing at one point. The novelty wears off and
         | even if the utility is still there, the drawbacks are no longer
         | hidden by the glitter that for some reason catches some eyes.
         | 
         | People who care about the night sky won't be impressed by that
         | sight more than by actual beads on a string. Certainly not for
         | long, especially when they realize what it means for that night
         | sky.
        
           | mlindner wrote:
           | Except those beads on a string will not be a normal or
           | regular sight. They're a coincidence of deployment mechanism,
           | separation method, satellite design, and orbit design.
           | They're temporary and as the constellation fills up, will
           | become less common.
        
             | etiam wrote:
             | .. at which point they'll just be shredding visual records
             | of the sky in their regular orbits as densely as the
             | companies have been allowed to cram in.
        
           | shadowgovt wrote:
           | It doesn't mean anything to the night sky. The night sky
           | definitely doesn't care one way or the other.
        
         | woudsma wrote:
         | I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw a Starlink chain in the
         | sky from my balcony in Amsterdam. We have a lot of light
         | pollution so I was amazed to see it from the city.
        
         | rglover wrote:
         | It'll be even more mesmerizing when it's sending OTA updates to
         | your Neuralink chip to get you back to work.
        
         | willidiots wrote:
         | I thought the same at first too, then realized this is
         | mesmerizing beautiful *pollution*. Similar to the iridescent
         | sheen of an oil slick on the ocean.
        
           | shadowgovt wrote:
           | Pollution implies harm, and there's no harm here. Contrast
           | light pollution which makes all sky phenomena invisible.
           | 
           | If anything, this is adding something to the existing dance
           | of the stars and planets.
        
             | lm28469 wrote:
             | > Pollution implies harm
             | 
             | That's news
        
             | JohnFen wrote:
             | > there's no harm here
             | 
             | Define "harm". I think astronomers would disagree with your
             | assertion.
        
               | shadowgovt wrote:
               | They already account for planes and existing satellites;
               | we have solutions for this, they simply need refinement
               | and deployment.
               | 
               | (... and that's before we consider that cheap launch
               | infrastructure means we can also address the problem by
               | launching telescopes, which would put high-quality
               | imagery completely unobstructed by atmosphere in the
               | hands of far more astronomers than can touch that tech
               | today).
        
               | gammarator wrote:
               | Starlink affects even space telescopes in LEO:
               | https://www.space.com/hubble-images-spoiled-starlink-
               | satelli...
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | > we have solutions for this, they simply need refinement
               | and deployment.
               | 
               | As I understand it, it's not quite as simple as that when
               | the number of satellites gets large.
               | 
               | > that's before we consider that cheap launch
               | infrastructure means we can also address the problem by
               | launching telescopes
               | 
               | The cost of the launch is not the largest part of the
               | cost of having space telescopes.
        
               | shadowgovt wrote:
               | > As I understand it, it's not quite as simple as that
               | when the number of satellites gets large.
               | 
               | I'm not sure "simple" is the term I'd use, but given the
               | satellite ephemera and timestamps, the algorithm for
               | knowing where the satellite is and therefore ignoring
               | that chunk of sky when the satellite passes through is
               | well-understood (and we can certainly mandate that every
               | launching organization maintain correct and up-to-date
               | ephemera).
               | 
               | Telescopes observe a tiny, tiny sliver of the night sky.
               | The density of satellites necessary to interrupt them
               | continuously would be something well past the expected
               | launch capacity of this century alone (and would create
               | its own navigational problems were we to achieve it).
               | 
               | > The cost of the launch is not the largest part of the
               | cost of having space telescopes.
               | 
               | Not as they've been done, because the cost of launch was
               | so high that it could only be justified by putting a
               | perfect-mirrored device that could see all the way back
               | through spacetime to the first microseconds of the cosmos
               | in orbit. Now imagine the economics when you're putting a
               | hundred up at that price, not one (and you can use
               | algorithms to combine signal from them to account for
               | lower resolution).
               | 
               | ... imagine having, with the right math, an aperture the
               | size of the orbital diameter of the Earth itself...
        
               | JBorrow wrote:
               | For part a) that is only true for a small selection of
               | observations. A huge proportion of astronomical science
               | comes out of surveys that typically use large fields of
               | view. Additionally, observation times can be very long,
               | so even if you are looking at a small bit of sky you can
               | still end up having things ruined by a satellite.
               | 
               | For part b) you are completely incorrect in your
               | assumptions here. The majority of the cost and effort of
               | telescopes is really in the instrumentation (the
               | 'cameras' that are strapped to the back of the
               | telescope). To get the most out of an observing facility,
               | we need access to these to change them, fix them, and
               | improve them. This is not possible with a space-based
               | mission.
        
               | shadowgovt wrote:
               | I feel like there's a whole world of information theory
               | that either astronomers or (I suspect) people making
               | arguments on behalf of astronomers are unaware of.
               | 
               | Long-duration observations can't be disrupted badly by a
               | quick satellite jaunt across the sky. That's just a noise
               | blip. Less than 0.00001% of the data collected. Isolate
               | it and scrub it.
               | 
               | Similarly, wide-field observations have a lot of data to
               | work with to figure out what the field is supposed to
               | look like vs. what it looks like with a satellite-pass
               | event. Isolate them and scrub them.
               | 
               | Satellites and deep stellar phenomena are different
               | scales of event at different ranges and speeds. A Fourier
               | transform should make them show up as obviously
               | separable.
               | 
               | (... and again, all of this is assuming you have to scrub
               | this data without a-priori knowledge, when the disrupting
               | event is a well-documented passover with clear ephemera.
               | If it is mandated that satellite companies publish the
               | ephemera, which I think is a perfectly reasonable burden
               | upon them, it should be even easier to separate signal
               | and noise).
               | 
               | I do see your point regarding (b) though; space telescope
               | science may require a wholly new approach relative to
               | terrestrial science.
        
         | femiagbabiaka wrote:
         | It's mesmerizing now at small scale, at anything resembling the
         | kind of scale I think SpaceX wants to target it'll just be
         | noise, like contrails.
        
         | darreninthenet wrote:
         | My wife and I were sitting outside chatting around our fire pit
         | in our back garden as do sometimes when the weathers nice and
         | we saw this row of continuous white dots all evenly spaced
         | passing over us and we were like "what the f????" as it was
         | obviously not natural.
         | 
         | Quick post on Facebook gave us the answer but yeah at the time
         | it really was a "wow" moment
        
         | euroderf wrote:
         | I'm wondering what effect this has on isolated Amazonian and
         | Papuan tribes.
        
           | shadowgovt wrote:
           | I've never really known what to make of this concern.
           | 
           | We plan to some day colonize the moon itself. How much should
           | we be concerned about how it will effect isolated Amazonian
           | and Papuan tribes when the moon is lit up with a hundred
           | points of light on the dark-crescent side as the phases
           | shift, and one can make out the twinkle of ion drives or
           | torch ships crisscrossing from lunar to Earth orbits? Enough
           | to never colonize the moon?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | specialist wrote:
         | I'm more torqued about light pollution. Every creature should
         | be able to look up at the Milky Way and wonder. (Or simply
         | navigate. YMMV.)
         | 
         | If astronomers are truly bent about satellites fouling their
         | earth bound observations, they should demand SpaceX put more
         | telescopes in orbit. Those would be better any way, right?
        
         | gammarator wrote:
         | Astronomers are not in the business of getting an emotional
         | reaction from looking at the night sky, we're trying to learn
         | facts about the universe by making quantitative measurements--a
         | process that megaconstellations indisputably degrade.
        
       | MisterTea wrote:
       | Looks like they missed an opportunity to visit the Black Lodge
       | and say hi to the Arm.
        
       | samstave wrote:
       | So van Gogh's Starry Night was showing how CERN and SpaceX sent
       | multiple rockets back through his time?
        
       | adzm wrote:
       | Why is there so much excess fuel to begin with?
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | Contingency planning.
        
         | BenoitP wrote:
         | I wouldn't say there is a lot of excess fuel as a percentage of
         | the mix in exhaust gases, but there is some, by design. Maybe a
         | few percents.
         | 
         | Why do we want some fuel in the exhaust? Burning an oxydizer-
         | rich mix is not a good idea, especially with a reusable rocket.
         | You'll have a very hot gas that is going to burn-corrode your
         | engine. Metals can burn in an oxygen-rich air. Now imagine that
         | mix at 3,600 K and 300 atm pressure. You'll have what is called
         | in the industry an 'engine-rich' burn. You don't want that.
         | 
         | Also, I don't know about this rocket but sometimes you want to
         | cool down your nozzle and you can do that with unburnt fuel
         | that you inject from the side.
         | 
         | Running a stochiometric mix puts you also at risk of damaging
         | your engine (some parts of your mix might be oxygen-rich), on
         | top of combustion temperature being higher.
         | 
         | Now, burning a fuel-rich mix make these problems go away. And
         | does not decrease much your thrust: heated at very high
         | temperatures, this residual fuel will expand and contribute to
         | some part in the force generated.
         | 
         | Last, a fun fact: you can detect when then rocket leaves the
         | upper atmosphere with the flame color! That's when the flame
         | goes from being orange (high temp residual fuel meets oxygen
         | from the atmosphere and burns) to being grey (flame meets the
         | atmosphere but not enough oxygen to relight it, and soot is
         | grey). You can clearly see it happen around 40km altitude here:
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/xY96v0OIcK4?t=15881
        
           | corbulo wrote:
           | Thanks for making HN awesome
        
         | LeonM wrote:
         | To add to the other (good) answers: it is also because this
         | makes (re)starting the engines in zero gravity easier. Liquids
         | behave very weird in 0g, trying to suck fuel from a nearly
         | empty tank in 0g can be challenging. Leaving more fuel in the
         | tanks makes this less of a challenge.
        
         | Symmetry wrote:
         | Physical systems aren't perfectly predictable, and so require
         | feedback. You include a little more fuel than you think you
         | need so that if you use more than expected, say because solar
         | conditions make the atmospheric drag a bit higher, you won't
         | run out with the payload just shy of the intended orbit.
         | 
         | But during re-entry there's no reason to keep that with you and
         | if by some chance your stage arrives intactish at the ground it
         | might cause a fire. Hence the venting before re-entry.
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | In case something doesn't work as efficiently as possible.
         | Since these rockets are not specialty designed for each launch
         | you only save a very tiny amount of money/weight by not filling
         | it all the way up.
        
         | 0xDEF wrote:
         | There isn't that much excess fuel. The reason it looks so big
         | and dramatic is because of water vapor and fumes reflecting
         | sunlight.
        
         | Tuna-Fish wrote:
         | That's not all that much fuel. There's always some margin in
         | the tanks to make sure that the turbopump won't ingest a
         | bubble, and probably a little more so that if the rocket
         | underperforms slightly on ascent they won't lose the mission
         | because they skimped on 50kg of fuel.
        
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