[HN Gopher] Systems design 2: What we hope we know
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       Systems design 2: What we hope we know
        
       Author : Amorymeltzer
       Score  : 103 points
       Date   : 2023-04-15 14:10 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (apenwarr.ca)
 (TXT) w3m dump (apenwarr.ca)
        
       | carapace wrote:
       | FWIW, apenwarr is one of the most intelligent humans I've ever
       | met. When people bring up 10x programmers I think of him. I don't
       | really have much to add, I just wanted to mention that for
       | context.
        
       | tudorw wrote:
       | thanks, a good read, I'm always curious to go back and look at
       | early knowledge system innovators who were looking at the
       | 'causes' of 'breakthrough hypothesis' and looking to then
       | 'engineer' a surrounding system to support more frequent
       | breakthroughs.
        
       | rektide wrote:
       | Placing emerged complexity/magic in a bucket together & saying
       | science despises them is a novel & revelatory point of view.
       | Avery is such a treasure!
       | 
       | Lovely idea towards the bottom too,
       | 
       | > _Or maybe we need to draw a distinction between_ producing
       | _insight and_ recognizing _insight._
       | 
       | I personally identify with this & see it as super core a
       | distinction. I'm reasonably bright & can find some clever ways of
       | doing things even if I haven't any learnings here. But like 90%
       | of what I love & appreciate about self is a resourcefulness &
       | ability to recognize & integrate insight.
        
       | kqr wrote:
       | On the quote opening the article:
       | 
       | > Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from
       | magic.
       | 
       | I had a lecturer who used to counter "if something ever seems
       | like magic it means you're not asking enough questions."
       | 
       | That stuck with me, although the article goes on to counter it
       | fairly well.
        
       | nyanpasu64 wrote:
       | > In short, in software engineering, we acknowledge that failures
       | happen and we measure them, characterize them, and compensate for
       | them. We don't aim for perfection.
       | 
       | If software engineering revolves around writing software complex
       | enough to have bugs not understood, or accepting memory safety
       | errors as a natural byproduct of programming (rather than
       | programming mistakes to be exterminated on sight, and made
       | impossible by design unless it prevents writing useful programs),
       | I'd be more effective and happier practicing applied math than
       | engineering.
        
         | skybrian wrote:
         | It's also accepting that performance is variable, that the
         | network is not reliable, that machines can fail at any time,
         | and that memory corruption happens.
         | 
         | When you build systems at scale you need to worry about these
         | things.
         | 
         | Programming language API boundaries don't make real-time
         | performance guarantees, not even in Rust. We hope to get
         | typical performance. In a mathematical context (for example,
         | proving programs correct), you often ignore these things and
         | worry only about whether the program will give you the right
         | answer, eventually, when the hardware works.
        
       | danielvaughn wrote:
       | "I've never seen anyone say ChatGPT feels like magic"
       | 
       | This is a curious line - I have, and I personally have that
       | reaction when I use it. It might even be the most magical
       | technology I've ever encountered.
        
         | jt2190 wrote:
         | > This is a curious line...
         | 
         | Literally in the _next sentence_ the author also remarks that
         | he finds it odd:
         | 
         | > "That makes me curious."
         | 
         | He finds it curious because he also finds the technology is
         | magical.
         | 
         | Eventually he concludes:
         | 
         | > "Let's say you have a Large Language Model AI, trained on all
         | the text in the world. We understand the mechanisms
         | (engineering) but the outcomes are surprising and emergent
         | (magic). Its job is to repeatedly predict the next word that
         | would come if a person wrote it - a form of negative latency,
         | or non-causality. From this, for reasons we don't really
         | understand, it can say an impressive variety of unexpectedly
         | meaningful things."
         | 
         | > "When you have all the text in the world memorized, that
         | means you have access to all the insights that have ever been
         | written. You need only recognize them, and have a good idea of
         | what the reader knows already, and you can produce insights -
         | things the reader has never heard before - on demand. You can
         | get an A+ from my English teacher. Can our AI do that? I don't
         | know. Certainly sometimes, maybe not reliably yet. Any time it
         | does, it will feel like magic."
        
         | amadeuspagel wrote:
         | I guess it doesn't feel like magic because it feels human?
        
         | MH15 wrote:
         | While I personally don't think ChatGPT feels magical, I know
         | many people who feel this way. It's a really common opinion,
         | especially among non-programmers.
        
       | Sniffnoy wrote:
       | > Since we now know what magic means, we know what magical
       | thinking means: a tendency to interpret something as magic
       | instead of trying to understand it.
       | 
       | No, "magical thinking" has a particular meaning, and it's not
       | that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magical_thinking
       | 
       | Mind you, people often use the phrase in a pretty loose way as a
       | way of dismissing an argument, but it does seem to be based on
       | the technical use, and not the meaning Apenwarr puts forth.
        
         | epgui wrote:
         | You're allowed to define different meanings for words if it
         | makes your argument go forward and if you make it clear what it
         | is.
         | 
         | However I still find the argument very unpersuasive, and the
         | usual meaning of "magical thinking" makes me feel uncomfortable
         | too.
        
           | Sniffnoy wrote:
           | Sure, but in this case he's explicitly discussing other
           | people's use:
           | 
           | > On the other hand, people who believe AIs and specifically
           | LLMs possess "intelligence" are often accused of "magical
           | thinking."
        
         | singpolyma3 wrote:
         | That definition seems pretty closely related to his.
        
       | epgui wrote:
       | I appreciate that the author is using very specific meaning for
       | the term "magical thinking", but even with this, I am
       | uncomfortable with the assertion that somehow understanding
       | emergence has anything to do with magic or magical thinking, as
       | (re)defined in the article.
       | 
       | Anyone who spends enough time studying biochem will have an
       | intuitive understanding / acceptance that biology emerges from
       | chemistry, which emerges from physics... But there's not really
       | any "magical thinking" (as defined in the article) involved.
       | 
       | Emergence of cognitive processes and experiences in the brain is
       | not really any different in this respect. If anything, it's
       | people who insist that human experiences are "special" and "just
       | different, obviously" that are doing the magical thinking.
        
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