[HN Gopher] UK to be one of worst performing economies this year...
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UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF
Author : rntn
Score : 57 points
Date : 2023-04-11 19:37 UTC (3 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.bbc.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.bbc.com)
| _hao wrote:
| I've been based in London since 2018. One thing that I have
| noticed in the past year (apart from the overall abysmal state of
| the job market) is that IT salaries have actually went way down.
| When I moved, I started at a higher salary than what's shown as
| ranges for a lot of jobs now 5 years later. All London based
| roles and I'm talking about positions across the board from
| junior to senior and beyond. That in combination with COVID,
| inflation, IR35 etc. has wrecked everything. Now, I'm between
| roles and I'm actually thinking that it might be time to leave.
| uxcolumbo wrote:
| What's the job market like? You mean fewer jobs?
|
| Where would you go next?
| _hao wrote:
| > What's the job market like? You mean fewer jobs?
|
| Based on my anecdotal data it's not good. And yes - fewer
| actual jobs. Last year I did some interviewing throughout the
| year and it seemed things were picking up to before-COVID
| level. After I left my previous place last September I got a
| nice (although short) outside IR35 contract. That finished
| just before New Year's. Since then it's been absolutely dead.
| Most recruiters are just CV harvesting. A lot of the job ads
| on LinkedIn, JobServe and others have been put on repeat for
| months. It seems a lot of companies are waiting for recession
| and have paused hiring. OR I just have had a bad luck, which
| is possible of course. It should be noted the financial year
| has just ended, so that period being Q4 for a lot of
| companies with uncertain budgets played a part for sure, but
| time will tell.
|
| > Where would you go next?
|
| There are a couple of options. Have a good friend in
| Switzerland that can help me out if I go there. Can go back
| to Bulgaria which has a very healthy IT market or might make
| the jump across the pond. I haven't really decided, but I'm
| thinking on the matter.
| timellis-smith wrote:
| The IMF are notoriously bearish on the UK economy. As the article
| notes the IMF have already upgraded their outlook for the UK
| economy once.
| finikytou wrote:
| ofc they are bearish IMF is pro europe so that they can coerce
| states into doing what they want and uk liberated himself from
| it.
| kwere wrote:
| uk was never a real member of eu, it entered the union with a
| lot of less strings attached, the only country to get such
| treatement.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_opt-
| outs_from_E...
| timthorn wrote:
| The UK's opt outs were to rules brought in during its
| membership, not prior to it's accession to the (then) EEC.
| dogma1138 wrote:
| Really?
|
| https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opt-
| outs_in_the_European_Uni...
| thinking001001 wrote:
| Big surprise, a state-funded (kinda) organisation doesn't know
| how to sell. Economics is all about sales, guys...
|
| But the UK is getting a triple whammy from the financial fallout
| of Covid-19, Ukraine invasion & fossil fuel prices, _and_ Brexit.
| vikingerik wrote:
| Be warned that every year-over-year number still needs to
| consider the effects from the pandemic. The UK will seem to look
| bad in 2023 because they recovered well in 2022 so the year-over-
| year baseline is artificially high. Countries like Canada and
| Japan that still had some pandemic restrictions dragging down
| 2022 are the ones who will look good for 2023 over an
| artificially low baseline. Both of those are an illusion of time-
| shifting, displacing economic activity and demand from one year
| into another.
|
| For real numbers, compare 2023 to 2019 and see what it looks like
| for a four-year time span. That's your real numbers here.
| pwinnski wrote:
| Your contention is that any and all poor performance is due to
| the pandemic, not in any way related to Brexit?
|
| I'm not sure 2022 looks quite as good as you're suggesting, but
| it's clear the pandemic had a profound impact, certainly.
|
| https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/19/britain-eco...
| tengbretson wrote:
| > Your contention is that any and all poor performance is due
| to the pandemic, not in any way related to Brexit?
|
| Your interpretation of the parent post is mistaken. They are
| saying that if you wish to try to isolate the effects of
| Brexit from the effects of the pandemic (and the recovery) in
| your analysis you should compare 4 years' data.
| pwinnski wrote:
| I'm not sure the initial comment lends itself to that
| reading, but it isn't clear it lends itself to my initial
| response either, so I'll switch over to your more
| charitable reading. Thanks!
| alephnerd wrote:
| The U.K. had a lost decade from the Great Recession to present
| [0][1]. There was a slight uptick in the 2017-19 period and in
| 2022 but a lot of that was lost due to covid and political
| instability respectively.
|
| [0] -
| https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/02/10/understanding-...
|
| [1] -
| https://www.ft.com/content/7968048a-3f7f-4cb0-8fa1-e10aff14b...
| afcapel wrote:
| Even discounting annual variance, the UK economy has been
| performing very poorly since, at least, 2010.
|
| > The UK economy is in the doldrums. The IMF has forecast it
| will be the worst-performing large advanced economy this year.
| But the problems stretch back much further.
|
| > Average annual growth rates have more than halved since the
| global financial crisis of 2007-08. The UK economy is no bigger
| now than it was on the eve of the coronavirus pandemic at the
| end of 2019 and the Bank of England does not expect to recover
| that ground until 2026 at the earliest.
|
| https://www.ft.com/content/dd195cda-ca12-48a6-9e8b-65a36e4e7...
| rayiner wrote:
| That's true of every big European country except Germany. The
| UK, Italy, France, and Spain (four of the five largest
| countries in Europe) have basically the same GDP now as in
| 2008.
| _joel wrote:
| Ah yes, nothing to do with self-inflicted sanctions...
| tick_tock_tick wrote:
| It doesn't appear to be? Or at-least plenty of the EU managed
| to do just as poorly without leaving?
| vuln wrote:
| It's just an illusion. Keep moving.
| neximo64 wrote:
| Is there someone with a graph of the estimates of UK economic
| performance against what actually eventuated in the past few
| years? A bit of a controversial topic but estimates after covid
| have been terrible. Great time to be in a hedge fund.
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