[HN Gopher] Dashcam footage shows driverless cars clogging San F...
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       Dashcam footage shows driverless cars clogging San Francisco
        
       Author : gorbachev
       Score  : 175 points
       Date   : 2023-04-10 11:11 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wired.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wired.com)
        
       | SanderNL wrote:
       | I'm not quite sure driverless cars solve an actual problem. I
       | mean it's cool, but it feels like a massive, near AGI level
       | effort to reach what, driving a car? What else can it do?
       | 
       | It seems so limited. If I had to bet I'd say we solve general AI
       | first and then driverless cars are somewhat of a byproduct. Like
       | many oldskool specialty AI's get owned by general purpose LLM's
       | nowadays.
        
       | post_break wrote:
       | I don't understand why they don't have a big red STOP button on
       | the roof or something to immediately call for either a driver or
       | why don't these have remote control take over so they can be
       | quickly moved out of the way? Imagine if one of these parks
       | itself in front of an ambulance or fire truck?
        
         | whalesalad wrote:
         | I'm surprised by this too. If I were running an operation like
         | this I would definitely have a team of remote operators in
         | racing sim setups (steering wheel, pedals) who could "jump" to
         | a car and take control in one of these situations.
         | 
         | Slack notification comes in: a car is stuck. Click link, get
         | jacked-in and take manual control to move it to a safe location
         | for further debugging.
        
         | ricardobeat wrote:
         | They call home when this happens, one of the reports mentions a
         | Waymo employee showed up after less than a a minute.
         | 
         | What they seem to be missing is a "get out of the way" path-
         | planning mode when it doesn't know how to proceed.
        
           | mrweasel wrote:
           | I was thinking the same thing. The car on the tarm/light-rail
           | track clearly don't have any concept of being in the way. It
           | seems to be the same case with the car blocking the bus in
           | the first example. Neither of those systems seem to have a
           | notion of reversing or pulling over to make space.
           | 
           | The ability to "read the road" seem to leave a lot to be
           | desired.
        
           | opportune wrote:
           | I believe they actually do have that kind of mode. When you
           | are riding in one of these cars commercially they have an
           | "end ride" button that cancels the route and gets the vehicle
           | to pull over.
           | 
           | I think most clogs are when cars are mapping so I'm not sure
           | if they either don't have enough data to offer that when they
           | get stuck (depends on how much they depend on mapping to
           | implement the feature). It could also just be that they
           | figure a stuck car is too messed up to reliably pull over
           | without causing more problems, so to err on the side of
           | caution they don't use that feature.
        
         | biztos wrote:
         | I'm sure I'm not the only one who would be tempted to hit that
         | button every time the Corporate Robocopmobile stops at a light.
        
       | londgine wrote:
       | Drivered cars are causing the majority of the clog. I don't see
       | more of a problem with driverless cars. Externalities are already
       | taxed in the form of gas tax, but if they want to target electric
       | vehicles as well, they can make every road a toll (with today's
       | cameras it's not hard to do, without even requiring drivers to
       | stop and pay).
        
       | jaberabdullah wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | jeffrallen wrote:
       | Does SF Mini have a zero tolerance, "you block us, we tow you"
       | policy? Tow companies are super eager to answer calls, because
       | they get a cut of the impound fees. The free market at work! :)
       | 
       | I think after a few times bailing their cars out of impound,
       | these companies would find a way to "return to profitability".
        
         | ncr100 wrote:
         | No.
        
         | AlotOfReading wrote:
         | The cost to send a person out there to rescue the car is
         | already expensive and towing fees would be a rounding error
         | compared to the vast amounts of money being spent on
         | engineering/development right now.
        
       | zecken wrote:
       | I've been held up longer by side shows at intersections than
       | driverless cars here. Not that SF is the lawless hellscape the
       | media pretends is the case, but I do think it's a bit rich that
       | city officials are pointing fingers at fairly remarkable services
       | using paid permits that work well 99% of the time while failing
       | to enforce laws that are broken more frequently.
        
         | noworld wrote:
         | I think this gets at the point I was going to make - Wired
         | probably spent untold hours combing through video requests to
         | find incidents involving driverless vehicles, but tossed out
         | every incident they found where an offending vehicle had a
         | driver. Then they wrote an article about their cherry picked
         | results. I would be curious to see both sets of data.
        
           | newaccount74 wrote:
           | According to the article, the transportation authority
           | started recording incidents involving driverless vehicles, so
           | Wired didn't have to comb through videos at all. They just
           | requested videos for incidents with driverless vehicles.
           | 
           | As to how many such incidents there were, it wasn't a lot.
           | Quote from the article:
           | 
           | > Agency logs show 12 "driverless" reports from September
           | 2022 through March 8, 2023
        
         | DeRock wrote:
         | In a similar vein, the driverless cars are actually useful to
         | me biking, since they have predictable and safe behavior. When
         | I see one, I take the lane, and it will follow at a reasonable
         | distance, and block other cars behind from aggressively
         | squeezing past.
        
         | hezralig wrote:
         | I have never, not once, been held up by a side-show in San
         | Francisco. I did have to wait 5 minutes to cross the street to
         | get to the farmer's market at the Embarcadero while a
         | motorcycle brigade zoomed up the street.
         | 
         | The only side-shows I have seen have been in Oakland and even
         | further into the East Bay.
         | 
         | With that being said, I have witnessed Cruise cars lovingly
         | tapping j-walking pedestrians and traffic abiding cyclists
         | around the lower Haight. I have also seen self-driving cars
         | block buses and the street car.
        
           | zecken wrote:
           | I wasn't trying to be hyperbolic, I've only been delayed by a
           | side show once in my neighborhood by the Chase center -- I've
           | never been blocked by a self driving car. I'm sure everyone
           | has different experiences, but the characterization the
           | article tries to make that these vehicles are a menace to
           | society strike me as overblown and contradictory to many
           | people's lived experiences here. At least these folks are
           | paying money to treat the city like a playground. I haven't
           | seen anyone get love tapped by one of the self-driving cars,
           | but if that's happening regularly it seems like a pretty
           | serious problem.
        
             | hezralig wrote:
             | I moved out of the state during the pandemic when I bought
             | a house in the PNW, however, I am mostly surprised to hear
             | there are sideshows happening in SF after living there for
             | over a decade.
             | 
             | As for the Cruise cars, I believe they were still being
             | trained so were not carrying passengers yet. They might
             | have ironed out the kinks.
        
         | opportune wrote:
         | Same. As a pedestrian in SF I very frequently get put in danger
         | by impatient human drivers at 4 way stop signs. No self driving
         | car has ever put me in danger, and I interact with them quite
         | frequently.
         | 
         | The national media of course wants to produce content
         | confirming the biases of people who are (in the back of their
         | minds) anxious about the prospect of SDC but don't have
         | exposure to them. I have a lot of exposure to them - not as an
         | employee though - and think Cruise, Waymo, and Zoox are all
         | doing a great job at being cautious and respectful with their
         | testing programs. Sure they do get stuck sometimes, but human
         | drivers disrupt traffic too, and honestly SDC are already
         | better at being safe drivers around pedestrians and other
         | vehicles than humans IME. It's just that they are so cautious
         | sometimes they just stop and create situations like this.
         | 
         | Most people who haven't been living with SDC for years like we
         | have in SF want to hand wring about them based on articles like
         | this, but the reality is quite different. You'll note you don't
         | hear much about the cars injuring people or getting in
         | accidents despite the appetite for negative SDC media coverage.
        
           | WeylandYutani wrote:
           | Do they have pedestrians or bicycles in San Francisco?
        
             | RajT88 wrote:
             | I am guessing you've never been there. It's like any other
             | big American city in that regard.
             | 
             | On top of that they have a bunch of electric scooters and
             | electric skateboards and such.
        
               | HDThoreaun wrote:
               | Most big American cities have no pedestrians and minimal
               | biking.
        
               | addisonl wrote:
               | Source?
        
               | HDThoreaun wrote:
               | I tried walking around sun belt cities. Would not
               | recommend. Just looked at the top 20 american cities by
               | population. I would consider 6 walkable or bikeable.
               | Maybe 7 I've never been to columbus.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | > It's like any other big American city in that regard.
               | 
               | If so, then the answer is "largely no".
        
               | RajT88 wrote:
               | Huh? Most big American cities have _a lot_ of pedestrians
               | and cyclists.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | Do they? Excepting for New York and "last mile"
               | pedestrians, I haven't noticed that tendency much.
               | 
               | Although I also haven't been to any major cities in the
               | southeast, so can't speak to them, and I haven't done any
               | studies, so my impression could very well be mistaken.
               | 
               | Big cities I've been to in Europe, though, tend to have a
               | lot of pedestrians and bicyclists.
        
               | dysfunction wrote:
               | SF proper is more like New York in that respect, it's
               | much more dense and walkable than the average US city.
               | The other bay area cities not so much.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | You can argue how many cyclists and related vehicles
               | there are in the grand scheme of things but there are a
               | fair number of pedestrians at least during the day in
               | (most?) US cities--that are meaningfully cities and not
               | effectively suburbs that have a mayor.
        
         | eric-hu wrote:
         | For others like me who didn't know the term:
         | 
         | > Sideshows entail street stunts in which parties perform
         | "doughnuts," or high-speed circles, burn-outs and other risky
         | maneuvers.
        
           | JohnFen wrote:
           | Thank you! I hadn't heard the term before and made a guess as
           | to what it meant. I guessed wrong.
        
       | sberens wrote:
       | > Autonomous cars in San Francisco made 92 unplanned stops
       | between May and December 2022
       | 
       | So about one unplanned stop every 3 days? Seems a bit of a
       | stretch to call it "clogging" San Francisco.
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | http://web.archive.org/web/20230410130758/https://www.wired....
       | 
       | https://archive.ph/PAhqM
        
       | strstr wrote:
       | This article is making a mountain out of a molehill.
       | 
       | The crux of the article seems to be "wow! If you block traffic it
       | really adds up to wasting people's time!". Duh. Lots of things do
       | this, many less valuable than driverless cars.
       | 
       | As an example, Seattle's drawbridges sound like much more of a
       | disaster than whatever time is being wasted by Cruise vehicles.
       | Sailboats can't even make it under the Fremont bridge, so every
       | rich dude with a boat blocks traffic (including multiple bus
       | lines) for 10 min when they sail by.
        
         | advisedwang wrote:
         | > As an example, Seattle's drawbridges ...
         | 
         | Those bridges don't open 7-9AM and 4-6PM, which shows that we
         | have and should continue to regulate to mitigate disruptions!
        
         | dpkirchner wrote:
         | > Sailboats can't even make it under the Fremont bridge, so
         | every rich dude with a boat blocks traffic (including multiple
         | bus lines) for 10 min when they sail by.
         | 
         | I've dreamt of a reverse-toll system where those folks end up
         | paying drivers, pedestrians, and bus passengers some token
         | amount for the delay (not enough to encourage lolligagging but
         | enough to encourage boats to find better travel times or
         | coordinate to spread the tolls.
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | Amusingly in almost all jurisdictions, based on ancient law,
           | the boats have right-of-way over the bridge.
           | 
           | Special laws sometimes are passed to have "boat times" so the
           | boat has to wait until the top of the hour or similar.
        
         | akira2501 wrote:
         | Substitute "bus" for "ambulance" and maybe the problem becomes
         | more apparent. The fact you can't issue a "reckless driving"
         | ticket to a corporation is going to become a problem. There
         | isn't a mechanism to force them to address the problems they
         | create.
        
       | JoeAltmaier wrote:
       | Does the article compare these incidents with similar cases of
       | disabled cars that did have drivers? No? Then nothing to learn
       | here.
        
       | Overtonwindow wrote:
       | I feel like San Francisco is NOT a good city to test autonomous
       | vehicles. Flat, grid cities would make better test grounds,
       | preferably without streetcars.
        
         | dbcurtis wrote:
         | What? No. Please tell me this is not how you test your own code
         | -- only cases for "happy path", ignore exceptions, no corner
         | case coverage. Line coverage goals of 10% or so.
         | 
         | Waymo has a lot of miles in quiet suburbs with broad streets
         | and light traffic. How has that helped them when they get to
         | SF?
        
           | tanseydavid wrote:
           | "Happy Path" gets all of the love.
        
             | dbcurtis wrote:
             | But... does it? :) Why would you assume there is only on
             | logic flow :) Testers must be evil-minded white-hats.
        
         | uoaei wrote:
         | If subjects aren't passing tests, the solution is to make the
         | tests easier?
         | 
         | (Remember this the next time someone says "teachers are the
         | reason our kids are dumb".)
        
         | jonas21 wrote:
         | Didn't Waymo start testing without backup drivers in Phoenix,
         | which is exactly as you describe (and also has clear weather
         | nearly every day)? I think they only moved on to SF after
         | deciding things worked well enough there.
        
       | ra7 wrote:
       | The self driving taxi companies will be very happy that minor
       | traffic inconveniences are the only thing people are complaining
       | about at this point.
        
       | classified wrote:
       | Ah, the great American tradition of having the public play guinea
       | pigs for those looking to make money.
        
         | codyb wrote:
         | I'd imagine that's the world's tradition for thousands of years
         | and any thing different is a recent development and rather
         | exclusive
        
       | Waterluvian wrote:
       | I've always wondered about a hypothetical South Park episode
       | where it feels 100% South Park and yet they play the entire thing
       | straight with no exaggeration.
       | 
       | This could be that.
        
       | jmole wrote:
       | this is incredibly frustrating.
       | 
       | look at the dashcam footage. What's taking up space?
       | 
       | The driverless car, or the long lines of parked cars on each side
       | of the road?
        
       | chkaloon wrote:
       | I'll probably be downvoted, but city infrastructure needs to be a
       | partner in this. I've always thought driverless vehicles are a
       | losing proposition unless road infrastructure engineering and
       | transit is upgraded along with it. If SF is just ignoring it
       | until it causes problems, well they're part of the problem.
        
         | uoaei wrote:
         | My dream long-term would be completely separated infra for
         | cars+buses and for bikes+scooters. Human-driven cars will be
         | pointless except on backwoods trails or racetracks in any case.
        
           | scottLobster wrote:
           | We better start on another baby boom then. Mass transit of
           | any sort requires a certain population density to be viable.
           | Unless you define any given suburb as "backwoods".
        
             | iamerroragent wrote:
             | Suburbs only exist in America because white people don't
             | like living next to black people.
             | 
             | I really doubt you're going to convince middle to upper-
             | middle income white people to commute via the bus with
             | people they see as undesirable.
             | 
             | That's an American problem not necessarily true for outside
             | of the states.
             | 
             | Your point on population density is good. I suspect
             | population density may see some shrinking with the rise of
             | remote work.
             | 
             | I know for myself if I could make big city job salary but
             | work and live in a small town rural area with cheaper cost
             | of living I would. I bet a lot of middle income people are
             | thinking the same thing.
        
               | scottLobster wrote:
               | It's anecdotal, but as an upper middle class, gun-owning,
               | formerly (pre-Trump) Republican-voting American white guy
               | raised in a largely white upper middle class suburb, I've
               | ridden my adopted city's bus many times and it's fine.
               | I'd happily take it to work and save on gas if it went
               | straight there, as it stands taking the bus turns a 30
               | minute commute into an hour+ commute. Also my kid's
               | doctor and dentist are completely inaccessible by bus,
               | never mind other activities.
               | 
               | Whatever the original motivations for suburbs, I've yet
               | to meet anyone who moved to a suburb to get away from
               | <insert ethnicity>, and I've had enough unasked for
               | conversations with racists to know I don't immediately
               | alienate them for whatever reason. Commute, crime, space
               | and schools are usually at the top of the list of reasons
               | for moving to a suburb. Sure you can argue
               | institutionalized racism and such is somewhat integrated
               | into those things, but very few people (with the possible
               | exception of the less educated regions of the
               | South/Midwest) are consciously turning down properties
               | solely because a black family lives next door.
               | 
               | At any rate, those people are bitter losers and idiots
               | who's opinion grows less relevant each passing year.
               | There are plenty of more rational people who could be
               | convinced if mass transit was made practical
        
               | iamerroragent wrote:
               | "American white guy raised in a largely white upper
               | middle class suburb, I've ridden my adopted city's bus
               | many times and it's fine."
               | 
               | Yeah, that will be the majority of people's experiences
               | riding the bus. Other than sexual harassment. Or watching
               | the driver have to refuse someone on the bus because they
               | wanted to call the driver a derogatory slur.
               | 
               | Regardless I digress. People absolutely move out of the
               | City to the Suburbs "for the schools".
               | 
               | They won't say it outright but no, white people don't
               | want to live near black people in America. Otherwise,
               | since rent is still pretty affordable in predominantly
               | black neighborhoods you would think they (white people)
               | would choose to live there instead of moving outside of
               | the city and having longer commutes and bigger mortgages.
        
               | kneebonian wrote:
               | > "Otherwise, since rent is still pretty affordable in
               | predominantly black neighborhoods you would think they
               | (white people) would choose to live there instead of
               | moving outside of the city and having longer commutes and
               | bigger mortgages."
               | 
               | This is one of the most blatant cases of selective
               | omission I've ever seen. Pray tell why is rent in Detroit
               | or Chicago so cheap? I mean I spent two years doing
               | humanitarian work across north Ohio in some of the cities
               | that have incredibly "low rent" there's a reason for
               | that, and anyone who can chooses to leave when they can
               | for very obvious reasons if you go and visit those areas.
        
               | iamerroragent wrote:
               | Idk, I grew up in a white middle class neighborhood but
               | the cost of housing is pretty considerably lower in the
               | neighborhoods to the other side of the freeway/railroad
               | tracks that happens to also be predominantly black. (This
               | is Ohio btw)
               | 
               | Note those neighborhoods were built in similar times with
               | similar sizes of lots and quality of houses.
               | 
               | The only noticable differences between the two locations
               | is racial makeup of the community.
               | 
               | So if two areas are equally nice to live in but one is
               | cheaper to live in than the other then why are people
               | electing to live in a more expensive area over the
               | cheaper one? Assuming everything else is equal.
        
               | reducesuffering wrote:
               | > The only noticable differences between the two
               | locations is racial makeup of the community.
               | 
               | > So if two areas are equally nice to live in but one is
               | cheaper to live in than the other then why are people
               | electing to live in a more expensive area over the
               | cheaper one? Assuming everything else is equal.
               | 
               | I strongly doubt that "housing is considerably lower"
               | while having no "noticable differences" besides race.
               | Name the communities, so one can research the actual
               | differences, otherwise this is imaginary. I hope you
               | can't mean Cleveland.
        
               | colanderman wrote:
               | I don't disagree with the sentiment, but --
               | 
               | > Otherwise, since rent is still pretty affordable in
               | predominantly black neighborhoods you would think they
               | (white people) would choose to live there
               | 
               | This is almost the definition of gentrification, which is
               | pretty common where I live (Boston area).
        
               | iamerroragent wrote:
               | Gentrification is pushing people out of their environment
               | due to high rent prices which happens because white
               | people 'feel' comfortable to live there now.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gentrification
               | 
               | I'm saying that our neighborhoods should reflect more or
               | less the ratio of diversity in the population but it
               | doesn't does it?
               | 
               | Presumably there's more poor white people than poor black
               | people in America, right? So if price of rent was the
               | main determining factor for where someone lives
               | presumably lower income communities ought to be pretty
               | mixed then, right?
               | 
               | That is white people ought to feel comfortable enough to
               | have black neighbors and lower rent and mortgages before
               | the gentrification happens.
        
               | DonHopkins wrote:
               | > those people are bitter losers and idiots who's opinion
               | grows less relevant each passing year
               | 
               | Their racist opinions have grown relevant enough in the
               | past several years to drive you, a presumably non-racist
               | Republican, away from voting for your own political
               | party. Racism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, white
               | supremacy, and bigotry in general are all on a sharp
               | rise, thanks to Trump's normalization and weaponization
               | of bigotry, and to everyone who supports him, and
               | especially to people who privately dislike him but
               | publicly support him (most of the Republican party).
               | 
               | Thanks for not voting for him yourself, but don't blind
               | yourself to the problem with America and your Republican
               | party, which owns Trump now and forever.
        
             | uoaei wrote:
             | In the techno-utopian view which has become the default for
             | self-driving vehicles' integration into society, suburbs
             | are also served by self-driving cars. What is your point
             | exactly?
        
         | lom wrote:
         | You're not going to be downvoted if that's also the conclusion
         | the article has.
        
         | pjc50 wrote:
         | Are the manufacturers going to pay for that? Or is it going to
         | be a regressive transfer from the rest of the taxpayers?
        
           | throwaway9980 wrote:
           | Are bike manufacturers going to pay for bike lanes? Or is it
           | going to be a regressive transfer?
           | 
           | What about Big Walking Shoe, are they going to pay for these
           | sidewalks or are we going to continue to subsidize their
           | profits?
        
             | Akronymus wrote:
             | > Are bike manufacturers going to pay for bike lanes? Or is
             | it going to be a regressive transfer?
             | 
             | The fact that there are less cars on the road already is a
             | HUGE benefit to them. Less cars => less parking lots and
             | less noise pollution => less maintenance costs => savings
             | for tax payers.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | What on earth makes you think that autonomous driving
               | that alleviates a driver from having to drive (and park)
               | in some of the least pleasant to drive in conditions will
               | result in fewer cars? Having to drive into the city
               | that's about an hour away is a major consideration for me
               | not doing it more frequently.
        
               | Akronymus wrote:
               | I was writing about why bike paths are a net positive for
               | everyone, rather than a regressive transfer. Even if just
               | by reducing the amount of cars.
        
               | briandear wrote:
               | They aren't a net positive for everyone when valuable
               | transportation lanes are lost for bicycles. I'm not
               | taking my four kids to the doctor on a bicycle. In an
               | emergency, I'm not going to pedal my way to the emergency
               | room. When it's pouring rain, or baking hot, I'm not
               | going to ride a bicycle. If I'm buying groceries for a
               | family of six, I'm not going to carry a week's worth of
               | groceries in a backpack. A bicycle trip of 15 miles takes
               | a whole lot longer than a car trip of the same distance.
               | How about transporting young babies on a bike? Bikes are
               | far more unsafe than cars.
        
               | dalke wrote:
               | It's only valuable lanes you're concerned with, right?
               | 
               | That is, you are okay with giving up low-value car
               | transportation lanes for valuable bicycle lanes, yes?
               | 
               | You may be interested in Braess's paradox.
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess%27s_paradox describe
               | it as "the observation that adding one or more roads to a
               | road network can slow down overall traffic flow through
               | it."
               | 
               | That Wikipedia entry gives a few examples where closing
               | roads helped automobile throughput, and links to
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand for more
               | details about how building more highways fails to reduce
               | congestion. ("the more highways were built to alleviate
               | congestion, the more automobiles would pour into them and
               | congest them and thus force the building of more highways
               | - which would generate more traffic and become congested
               | in their turn in an ever-widening spiral that contained
               | far-reaching implications for the future of New York and
               | of all urban areas").
               | 
               | Thus feels very much like there are net-negative
               | transportation lanes which can be replaced by bicycle
               | lanes _and_ improve your transit rates.
               | 
               | Are you against removing those lanes? Are you against
               | experiments to determine where those lanes might be?
               | 
               | As for the rest of your comment, you live in an area
               | designed for cars, so of course cars are essential for
               | your daily life. If you don't know what you're missing,
               | it's easy to overlook how other solutions exist.
               | 
               | I happen to live in a walkable part of my city. Our
               | health care center is 4 blocks away. The urgent care
               | center is about a mile away. Both are walkable, even with
               | two stroller-age kids, which we've done.
               | 
               | When we've needed to get to the hospital in a hurry,
               | we've used a taxi. The savings in not having a car more
               | than pays for both a bus pass and the occasional taxi.
               | 
               | We've got a good bus system, so when the weather is
               | horrible, people switch from walking or bikes to buses
               | when going to work.
               | 
               | We get our groceries delivered - again, the cost of
               | delivery is less than the cost of owning a car.
               | 
               | And since we live in a walkable area of the city, we used
               | strollers to move babies around, including on the bus,
               | and to get to preschool. (We had several choices within
               | walking distance.)
               | 
               | The big box store is about 10 minutes away by bus, and
               | it's 5 minutes to the bus stop. When we've bought
               | something big, we pay for delivery and removal of the old
               | item, but car/truck rentals are also possible.
               | 
               | Nor must one be without a car to live here. We have
               | several neighbors with a car, parked in the parking
               | garage on our block. Instead, we've made the choice to
               | not have a car.
               | 
               | While you don't have that choice. You are stuck, just
               | like most people in the US. It's no wonder you interpret
               | any talk about opening other possibilities as a
               | diminishment of your life.
               | 
               | But on the other hand, having everyone's life organized
               | around the way you personally want it diminishes the
               | ability for people who want a car free life, and for
               | those who for whatever reason cannot drive.
               | 
               | Consider that in a few years your kids will need you or
               | another adult to drive them to all the places they want
               | to go. The proverbial soccer mom is an unpaid chauffeur,
               | and likely needs an extra vehicle for that purpose.
               | 
               | While my kids will be able to walk, bike, or take a bus,
               | on their own, even as 10 year olds. I'll be able to send
               | them to the store to pick up a missing ingredient for
               | dinner. If they get bored they can walk 6 blocks to the
               | library, or to a park to play, or to the local youth arts
               | and culture center, or the swimming pool, or visit
               | friends.
               | 
               | What will your kids be able to do?
        
               | ProfessorLayton wrote:
               | It's worth noting that public transportation exists, not
               | just bikes and cars. Designing city less oriented around
               | cars would mean that you _could_ take your kids to the
               | doctor on a train /bus/walk, and that your grocery store
               | wouldn't be 15mi away, and not need to buy a week's worth
               | of groceries at a time.
               | 
               | Of course you could choose to drive anyway, but as long
               | as people have the _option_ to rely less on their cars it
               | 's a net win.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Except that bike lanes often cut into lanes for
               | auto/truck/bus traffic. Traffic has gotten worse over the
               | past few years since a lot of bike lanes were put in.
               | Maybe that's a reasonable tradeoff (probably), but bike
               | lanes almost certainly didn't make things better for
               | drivers. (ADDED: Around where I live I suspect bike lanes
               | serve more as an alternative to walking and public
               | transit than they do cars. Again, they're probably for
               | the best but they don't really help drivers.)
        
               | cozzyd wrote:
               | Bike and bus lanes have only improved traffic for me. But
               | I don't have a car...
        
               | xracy wrote:
               | Citation needed for "Traffic has gotten worse over the
               | past few years since a lot of bike lanes were put in."
               | For one thing, it's not even a causal statement, but
               | you're implying it is.
               | 
               | For another bikes take up ~half the space of a car going
               | in the same direction. So the inclusion of bike lanes and
               | their usage would only _improve_ traffic because it
               | removes the actual cause of traffic (cars) from the road.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | I was speaking of a specific city that has added
               | extensive bike lanes. No idea of causality. Maybe a lot
               | more people have decided to drive in and out all of a
               | sudden.
               | 
               | I was mostly objecting to the comment up-thread implying
               | that bike lanes are inherently win win. They can be a
               | good idea on net while increasing driving times.
        
               | xracy wrote:
               | Yeah, your trying to hide your argument in specificity
               | makes it an "anecdote" and not anything meaningfully
               | contributing to the conversation. So you can either find
               | specific sources that demonstrate more than that "you
               | feel like traffic has gone up due to bike lanes in city
               | X", and that would be an interesting content/addition to
               | the discussion _or_ you can mark it more clearly as an
               | opinion, and people will be more likely to ignore it...
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | Depends. If 90% of the traffic is still cars, bike lanes
               | make it possible for the 10% that is bikes. But the 90%
               | now have fewer lanes.
               | 
               | You sound like you're assuming that, given more bike
               | lanes, 50% of the traffic will ditch their cars and ride
               | bikes. (At least, your logic doesn't work without that
               | assumption.) I don't think that's a valid assumption.
        
               | trgn wrote:
               | I guess it depends on the location. More lanes don't
               | equal better traffic. In my city, every road is pretty
               | much a 2-3 lane highway for cars, and it seems like a
               | huge waste of space. Invites speeding, crashes.
               | 
               | There's been road diets, where they've been reduced to
               | single lane, and these had had no effect on travel time.
               | Did reduce crashes a lot, less of that aggressive
               | jostling for position, just cars chugging along calmly in
               | single file.
               | 
               | There's been years long construction on a few big
               | buildings, blocking whole lanes, forcing cars into single
               | file; absolutely zero effect on travel times.
               | 
               | When there's snowfall, only middle lanes are cleared.
               | Zero effect on traffic flow.
               | 
               | Imho traffic flow is pretty much determined by number of
               | cars and number of intersections, and very little by
               | number of parallel lanes. So much room for dedicated bike
               | or bus lanes, it's really AND/AND, really everybody wins,
               | and it's such a tragedy that my city just doesn't seem to
               | understand that. All it takes is paint and bollards.
        
               | gibolt wrote:
               | Not 1/2, closer to 1/10 (for the exact space of the car).
               | Cars also need far more buffer space, parking space,
               | overall road area for maneuvering around a city. If
               | completely replaced, infrastructure area could probably
               | be reduced by ~20-100x
        
               | xracy wrote:
               | I'm being real generous here that on a 4 lane road, if
               | you want to add bikes I would just take away 1 lane of
               | car traffic, and that would allow for bikes to be
               | insulated from the cars in both directions.
               | 
               | But I definitely agree with you that we could probably
               | 1/100th the size of roads (and open up a whole lot of
               | space for property development), if everyone biked
               | everywhere. (Not useful as a goal, just useful as an idea
               | for space requirements.)
        
               | briandear wrote:
               | Do bikers pay usage taxes or registration fees?
        
               | eesmith wrote:
               | Flipping things around, do drivers pay enough in usage
               | taxes and registration fees to cover the cost of the road
               | they use?
               | 
               | No. Usage taxes and registration fees only cover ~37% of
               | the cost of the roads.
               | 
               | "In 2020, state and local motor fuel tax revenue ($53
               | billion) accounted for 26 percent of highway and road
               | spending, while toll facilities and other street
               | construction and repair fees ($22 billion) provided
               | another 11 percent. The majority of funding for highway
               | and road spending came from state and local general funds
               | and federal funds." - https://www.urban.org/policy-
               | centers/cross-center-initiative...
               | 
               | The remaining ~63% comes from other sources, including
               | property taxes, sales taxes, and income taxes which
               | bikers pay either directly or indirectly (eg, through
               | rent).
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | UncleEntity wrote:
             | > Are bike manufacturers going to pay for bike lanes?
             | 
             | Are bike manufacturers operating the bicycles for profit?
             | 
             | > What about Big Walking Shoe...
             | 
             | Are they operating the shoes for profit?
             | 
             | Or is it the citizens, taxpayers if you will, operating the
             | shoes and bikes as part of their "social contract" with the
             | city?
             | 
             | Now, are the citizens of SF owning and operating robocars
             | as part of this social bargain or is it for-profit entities
             | 100% doing it to extract income from the citizens?
             | 
             | Not that I'm saying profit as an incentive is wrong but you
             | do see the difference in these two things, right?
        
             | gatlin wrote:
             | Is this a sincere reply? I would use a throwaway too if
             | asking something this inane.
        
               | marcellus23 wrote:
               | I don't necessarily agree with it, but it's not inane. It
               | was the government that paid for roads and highways,
               | after all, not Ford or GM.
        
               | treis wrote:
               | I feel like I've stumbled into bizarro world. Self
               | driving cars would be a massive boon to quality of life
               | in every American city with perhaps a few exceptions. I
               | couldn't care less if my city spent a billion dollars a
               | year making them work. Way better than that billion going
               | to the current public transit system that sucks out loud.
        
               | marcellus23 wrote:
               | Many people think that money could be better spent on
               | improving transit so that it no longer sucks.
        
               | treis wrote:
               | We tried that about 7 years ago. Zero projects from that
               | tax increase have been delivered and the one actually
               | under construction is mostly pointless.
        
             | xracy wrote:
             | I don't know if you've ever been to a walkable city, but
             | they pay for themselves. Because people don't spend all of
             | their time driving to and from the place they want to be,
             | they get to spend extra time shopping and growing local
             | businesses that pay taxes for infrastructure to stick
             | around.
             | 
             | Car lanes are paying money for people to skip those places
             | and only go to one place at a time without drawing them to
             | other places in the same area. If I'm driving to the store,
             | I'm driving... To the store. I'm not going to walk around
             | outside of the store after I'm done. This has no benefits
             | for adjacent businesses.
        
               | cscurmudgeon wrote:
               | Source? I can easily make the other argument.
               | 
               | Car lanes bring more customers from far away locations
               | etc. etc.
        
               | xracy wrote:
               | I believe this is the video I was going off of to extract
               | the info from.
               | 
               | You can make the other argument... but can you bring the
               | other data for it?
               | 
               | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nw6qyyrTeI&ab_channe
               | l=NotJu...
        
               | cscurmudgeon wrote:
               | Can you? You just linked a StrongTowns video.
               | 
               | (I was 100% expecting that lol).
               | 
               | Let me spell it out. I was looking for peer-reviewed
               | publications. I am not going through an ad-infested
               | StrongTowns video to hunt for references.
               | 
               | He has links to his Patreon, paid-subs on Nebula, and
               | donations but zero links to any peer-reviewed articles.
               | That says a lot.
        
               | xracy wrote:
               | Oh, cool, still more evidence than you've provided. And
               | honestly, you can Google for peer-reviewed publications
               | just as well as I can if you're just going to complain
               | about my sources.
               | 
               | Where are your "peer-reviewed publications" that prove
               | I'm wrong. How about let's see that first, since you've
               | provided nothing (not even an argument) for why I'm
               | wrong. You just stated you _could_ make the argument, and
               | you yada yada yada 'd your way through the rest of the
               | point:
               | 
               | > Car lanes bring more customers from far away locations
               | etc. etc.
               | 
               | How about you fill out the etc's with some peer-reviewed
               | publications?
        
             | killjoywashere wrote:
             | Pedestrians (aka everyone) pushed for sidewalks, long
             | before cars. Cyclists (a much smaller voting block), pushed
             | for bike lanes, and it took them much longer. What voting
             | block is going to push for infrastructure improvements
             | needed by self-driving cars?
        
               | phpisthebest wrote:
               | >>Pedestrians (aka everyone)
               | 
               | False, everyone is not a Pedestrian, I moved into my
               | current home specifically because there are no sidewalks
               | (and no HOA), and I resist any movement to add them to my
               | street.
               | 
               | >>What voting block is going to push for infrastructure
               | improvements needed by self-driving cars?
               | 
               | People that want to use and benefit from Self Driving
               | cars, just like people that vote for sidewalks.
               | 
               | I have a feeling the number of people that want the dream
               | of being able to have a car that just drives itself is
               | FAR FAR FAR FAR higher than the number of people that
               | utilize sidewalks. At least for my Geographic region...
        
               | low_key wrote:
               | The dream of a "car that just drives itself" works for
               | everyone. It serves both goals of letting people such as
               | yourself take your car (optionally paying attention),
               | while also making sure that car doesn't run over
               | pedestrians, cyclists, and the like.
               | 
               | Your geographic region doesn't really matter.
        
               | cozzyd wrote:
               | You're talking to someone who thinks PHP is the best.
        
               | _dain_ wrote:
               | _> False, everyone is not a Pedestrian, I moved into my
               | current home specifically because there are no sidewalks
               | (and no HOA), and I resist any movement to add them to my
               | street._
               | 
               | What the fuck!? Why don't you want a sidewalk? Why would
               | any street even be built without a sidewalk, like how is
               | that even an option. How is anyone meant to walk safely?
               | 
               |  _> I have a feeling the number of people that want the
               | dream of being able to have a car that just drives itself
               | is FAR FAR FAR FAR higher than the number of people that
               | utilize sidewalks. At least for my Geographic region... _
               | 
               | Where are you from, Mars? Cause you may as well be
               | speaking Martian, I can't comprehend your mindset at all.
               | 
               | How does anyone go for a morning run? Walk their dog? How
               | do kids get to their friends' houses? Even in a low
               | density suburb people do these things.
               | 
               | "The number of people who use sidewalks" is like ... 99%.
               | Everyone uses them at least a little, unless you're
               | literally bedridden or something. Or out in the middle of
               | nowhere.
        
               | UncleEntity wrote:
               | > How is anyone meant to walk safely?
               | 
               | Only the poors walk and they drag down the property
               | values by their mere presence.
               | 
               | And kids? Nasty little creatures.
        
               | phpisthebest wrote:
               | >>How does anyone go for a morning run? Walk their dog?
               | How do kids get to their friends' houses?
               | 
               | on the road, there is like zero traffic on my road, and I
               | spend my entire child hood playing in the street.
               | 
               | >>Where are you from, Mars?
               | 
               | No the midwest... probably mars to you...
               | 
               | >>Why don't you want a sidewalk?
               | 
               | Because I do not want to maintain them, shovel them, or
               | accept the liability of someone is injured on them.
               | 
               | >>Everyone uses them at least a little, unless you're
               | literally bedridden or something.
               | 
               | Not bed Ridden, do not use sidewalks.
               | 
               | My vehicle goes from my drive to a parking lot, I walk
               | from the inside of my home to the vehicle and then from
               | the vehicle to the inside of a business on the tarmac of
               | the parking lot. No sidewalks
        
               | _dain_ wrote:
               | _> on the road, there is like zero traffic on my road,
               | and I spend my entire child hood playing in the street._
               | 
               | Same in my childhood, but there were sidewalks
               | (pavements) everywhere. A street without one is simply
               | defective, like if it didn't have lampposts or adequate
               | drainage. Cars go down the middle, pedestrians go on the
               | sides, that's just how it works.
               | 
               |  _> No the midwest... probably mars to you..._
               | 
               | I don't know what that's supposed to mean.
               | 
               |  _> Because I do not want to maintain them, shovel them,
               | or accept the liability of someone is injured on them._
               | 
               | Why on earth would it be your responsibility to maintain
               | the sidewalk? It's not yours! It's publicly owned and
               | it's maintained at public expense, exactly like the road
               | surface. I've never personally had to maintain any
               | sidewalk outside my house, they're in adequately good
               | repair because it comes out of my taxes. Does your
               | council expect you to mix your own concrete to patch up
               | cracks, or something? Like the backyard steel mills in
               | Maoist China? Are you expected to fill potholes in the
               | road too? And why would you have any liability if someone
               | is injured? That's not how torts work, again cause it's
               | not your pavement. You're just making up nonsensical
               | reasons.
               | 
               |  _> My vehicle goes from my drive to a parking lot, I
               | walk from the inside of my home to the vehicle and then
               | from the vehicle to the inside of a business on the
               | tarmac of the parking lot. No sidewalks _
               | 
               | So every single little errand you have to do requires
               | getting in a car and driving to a new destination? And
               | you expect everyone else to live this way on your street?
               | Again, how do kids or anyone who doesn't have access to a
               | car at that particular moment manage to do anything?
               | 
               | Your entire world amounts to your house, your car,
               | parking lots, and the inside of shops and offices. That's
               | unimaginably sad to me. I could never live like that. Do
               | you really never use the two legs God gave you, and never
               | let your lungs breathe natural air, and never let your
               | eyes see the beauty of the world unimpeded by a
               | plexiglass windshield?
        
               | phpisthebest wrote:
               | > A street without one is simply defective, like if it
               | didn't have lampposts or adequate drainage.
               | 
               | My street has lights, drains, everything but sidewalks...
               | 
               | >I don't know what that's supposed to mean.
               | 
               | I suspected (and still do) you either live outside the
               | US, or on one of the coasts.
               | 
               | >>Why on earth would it be your responsibility to
               | maintain the sidewalk? It's not yours, it's publicly
               | owned and it's maintained at public expense.
               | 
               | No, not it is not. Not anywhere I have ever lived. They
               | are "easements" that are privately owned, and have to
               | maintained by the home owner, at the home owners expense,
               | and you will be fined if they are not maintained,
               | shoveled, etc.
               | 
               | In some cases the city my pay for the initial creation of
               | the sidewalks, but after that it is on the homeowner to
               | maintain them.
               | 
               | >Does your council expect you to mix your own concrete to
               | patch up cracks, or something?
               | 
               | Yes?... Or hire a contractor to replace them if they are
               | disrepair.. Often times it is HOA that is responsible as
               | well which comes out of the HOA dues you would pay.
               | Rarely is it the city in area of single family home
               | neighborhoods.
               | 
               | Example This is not my city, but my city is simliar...
               | Peoria, IL ARTICLE VII. > DIVISION 1. > Sec. 26-231. -
               | Declaration of disrepair; notice. [1]
               | 
               | >> " . The notice shall advise the owner that he must
               | repair or contract for repairs of the sidewalk in need of
               | repair within 30 days of the date of the mailing of the
               | notice. The notice shall describe with particularity the
               | location of the sidewalk in need of repair."
               | 
               | Now in Peoria, IL they do cover upto 80% of the bill but
               | the owner still has to find, contract, and schedule the
               | contractor, and the city can reject any bill they soley
               | claim is "excessive" in costs and only reimburse what
               | they fill is not excessive, Some / Many cities do not
               | offer any reimbursement at all or offer a lower rate...
               | 
               | In either case it is still property that is owned by the
               | home owner, the public has the right of access via an
               | easement. Liability in those states and cities is on the
               | homeowner.
               | 
               | [1] https://library.municode.com/il/peoria/codes/code_of_
               | ordinan...
               | 
               | >So every single little errand you have to do requires
               | getting in a car and driving to a new destination?
               | 
               | Most people in my city already do... I am the norm.
               | 
               | >Do you really never use the two legs God gave you, and
               | never let your lungs breathe natural air,
               | 
               | Sure that is what Parks, Camping, Trails, etc are for.
               | Not sidewalks on my street
        
               | cozzyd wrote:
               | It's too bad homeowners aren't responsible for
               | maintaining the street in front of their home too.
               | 
               | (but I'm fine with streets with no sidewalks, as long as
               | the speed limit is appropriately reduced to 10 mph or so
               | to make walking safe. Otherwise how are kids to walk to
               | school and back?).
        
               | _dain_ wrote:
               | _> My street has lights, drains, everything but
               | sidewalks..._
               | 
               | Then it's defective.
               | 
               |  _> No, not it is not. Not anywhere I have ever lived.
               | They are "easements" that are privately owned, and have
               | to maintained by the home owner, at the home owners
               | expense, and you will be fined if they are not
               | maintained, shoveled, etc._
               | 
               |  _> Yes?... Or hire a contractor to replace them if they
               | are disrepair.. Often times it is HOA that is responsible
               | as well which comes out of the HOA dues you would pay.
               | Rarely is it the city in area of single family home
               | neighborhoods._
               | 
               |  _> Now in Peoria, IL they do cover upto 80% of the bill
               | but the owner still has to find, contract, and schedule
               | the contractor, and the city can reject any bill they
               | soley claim is "excessive" in costs and only reimburse
               | what they fill is not excessive, Some / Many cities do
               | not offer any reimbursement at all or offer a lower
               | rate..._
               | 
               |  _> In either case it is still property that is owned by
               | the home owner, the public has the right of access via an
               | easement. Liability in those states and cities is on the
               | homeowner._
               | 
               | That's insane. Stark raving mad. Completely, utterly
               | barmy.
               | 
               | Such a byzantine, litigious system would deter one from
               | wanting a sidewalk next to one's house. It is obviously
               | broken. It should be reformed so that people's incentives
               | are not aligned against basic standards of civilization,
               | by taking sidewalks into proper public ownership (not
               | this "easement" frippery) and allowing for coordination
               | and economies of scale in their maintenance. Imagine if
               | roads worked this way! A patchwork of (ir)responsibility,
               | individualism pursued to a farcical extreme.
               | 
               |  _> Most people in my city already do... I am the norm._
               | 
               | How do people go places and get things done if they can't
               | drive? Like being under 18, or elderly, or poor, or with
               | vision disabilities, or mentally retarded, or their
               | spouse needed the car for something else, or being drunk
               | at that particular moment, or the car is in for repairs,
               | or they had their license suspended, or any number of
               | other reasons? It would seem one is utterly dependent on
               | an expensive machine, a prisoner in your own home without
               | it, having to pay an enormous ante just for basic
               | participation in society.
               | 
               |  _> Sure that is what Parks, Camping, Trails, etc are
               | for. Not sidewalks on my street _
               | 
               | Those things I listed aren't special treats that you save
               | for a holiday. They're supposed to be a normal everyday
               | part of human existence. Your body needs a baseline level
               | of exertion to maintain cardiovascular health. What
               | you're describing isn't normal at all.
        
               | phpisthebest wrote:
               | >> you save for a holiday.
               | 
               | UK or EU?
               | 
               | >> their spouse needed the car for something else
               | 
               | Most have a second car.... or even 3... hell for most of
               | my adult life I had both a Car and Truck, I was single. I
               | dont today just a truck but I have thought about getting
               | an EV Car, It would not however replace my Truck but in
               | addition to it.
               | 
               | Uber / Lyft has gone a long way for me not having that
               | 2nd vehicle
               | 
               | >How do people go places and get things done if they
               | can't drive? Like being under 18, or elderly, or poor, or
               | with vision disabilities, or mentally retarded
               | 
               | Bike, Bus, etc.. But I am unclear why you think people
               | under 18, the poor, or the elderly do not also have cars?
               | People can drive here as young as 15, many poor people
               | have cars... hell if you drive through some of the
               | government funded housing / income restricted housing
               | (i.e housing for poor people) some of them have newer
               | cars than I do.
               | 
               | and the elderly drive all the time though I would like
               | them to stop as they drive to f'in slow....
               | 
               | >> litigious system would deter one from wanting a
               | sidewalk next to one's house.
               | 
               | and we have come full circle. see my first post in this
               | subject.
               | 
               | >>by taking sidewalks into proper public ownership (not
               | this "easement" frippery) and allowing for coordination
               | and economies of scale in their maintenance.
               | 
               | I dont know if that is a good case either, the roads in
               | many area;s or pretty shitty, and low traffic residential
               | streets often never get replaced until you can no longer
               | tell if the road as paved or is gravel, and there are soo
               | many pot holes that looks like a photo from a bombing run
               | in war zone.
               | 
               | "Economies of Scale" is not a thing with government
               | project. No Bid Contraction to government preferred
               | contractors aka corruption is ....
               | 
               | Most studies show governments massively over pay for road
               | projects compared to if a private citizen were to simply
               | hire the same company to do the same job. Companies
               | charge the government MORE not less.
        
               | scottLobster wrote:
               | Since money is speech, and this is SF, just a few rich
               | VCs.
        
             | hermannj314 wrote:
             | I'm pretty sure the garbage truck in a single weekly trip
             | does more damage on my street than all the bikes and cars
             | combined for that same period of time.
             | 
             | Time and weight consume road and sidewalk infrastructure.
        
               | Akronymus wrote:
               | The huge amount of cars makes it seem attractive to widen
               | roads and such. Which, more road surface leads to more
               | maintenance. Along with that, widening also induces more
               | demand and such.
        
               | hermannj314 wrote:
               | There is a great YouTuber [1] that talks about city
               | planning. They have a lot of content, but a theme is tax
               | revenue per square foot, and the mathematical reality of
               | a sustainable city being unattainable because collective
               | expectations regarding road infrastructure are so
               | expensive.
               | 
               | [1] - Not Just Bikes
        
               | jodrellblank wrote:
               | If that's what you've taken away from it, you need to
               | rewatch it; the financial theme is not "sustainable
               | cities are impossible" the theme is " _American sprawling
               | car dependent suburbia_ is insolvent because it doesn 't
               | generate enough tax revenue to pay for the sprawling
               | roads/water/sewage/garbage disposal/other services that
               | it uses", and it's like a Ponzi scheme where the
               | construction and sale of a new chunk of suburbs pays for
               | the maintenance work on the previous one.
               | 
               | Denser inner-city areas generate much more tax revenue
               | with less cost of services because they have to cover a
               | smaller area, and this can be solvent and subsidises the
               | suburbs.
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nw6qyyrTeI "Suburbs are
               | subsidized: Here's the Math"
               | 
               | NB. the last time I linked this on HN someone dismissed
               | it as "Strong towns propaganda" claiming that if suburbs
               | didn't exist, everyone would starve. They completely
               | failed to respond to followup questions about cities
               | which are not sprawling suburbs and are not starving.
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35238666
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | There is a vast majority of suburban towns around Boston
               | which are both quite old and quite solvent, contrary to
               | the Strong Towns predictions.
               | 
               | I've written about them before:
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34599508
               | 
               | For convenience, they include: Arlington (1635), Belmont
               | (1849), Waltham (1884), Watertown (1630), Lincoln (1754),
               | Wellesley (1881), Newton (1688 town, 1874 city) among
               | others.
        
               | hermannj314 wrote:
               | I 100% agree with you and that was my takeaway as well
               | from watching the series, I clearly was not very good at
               | communicating my point.
        
               | treis wrote:
               | > about city planning. They have a lot of content, but a
               | theme is tax revenue per square foot
               | 
               | Sounds more like SimCity metric than what a real life
               | city should care about.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | spike021 wrote:
       | A few days ago, my mom told me how a day or two before she was
       | driving in the city (San Francisco) and a Waymo pulled up in the
       | next lane to her. It started merging into her lane right beside
       | her, and she thought she was going to be hit by it. Fortunately
       | not, but afterward she attempted to get the driver's attention
       | and realized there was none.
       | 
       | Not sure what you do in that situation, honestly.
        
         | zht wrote:
         | you get hit and sue
        
       | sixQuarks wrote:
       | The article says there was 83 minutes of disruption caused by
       | autonomous vehicles.
       | 
       | I wonder what amount of disruption was caused by homeless and
       | mentally ill people during the same period.
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | The homeless and mentally ill don't pretend that they're
         | solving society's transportation woes.
        
           | tanseydavid wrote:
           | On 6th street in SF they do.
        
           | sixQuarks wrote:
           | Do you honestly believe the world WILL NOT transition to
           | autonomous vehicles in the future, even if that future is far
           | down the road?
        
             | pookha wrote:
             | I only see this taking over if it's force fed down the
             | publics throat by authoritarian regimes (China style). The
             | public at-large doesn't want an algorithm to completely
             | remove the steering wheel...Needs to be a fluid mixture of
             | human and algorithm with these self-driving designs (Tesla
             | style). Sorry.
        
             | rsync wrote:
             | Yes I believe that and I will actively work toward a future
             | that does not contain (most) autonomous vehicles.
             | 
             | Pick any date in the future and I will wager that my 16yo
             | son can more intelligently navigate a tricky driving
             | scenario and deal more effectively with tough edge cases.
             | 
             | In addition to our human superiority at driving we also
             | _owe it to each other_ to enter these driving transactions
             | with literal _skin in the game_. I need to know that your
             | driving strategies are backed up with  "... or else I will
             | be dead".
             | 
             | The solution to our societal woes is not the further over-
             | production of personal autos and autonomous driving - it is
             | the investment in _real_ mass transit (the kind that runs
             | on rails).
        
       | woodruffw wrote:
       | Do SF and other municipalities collect fees that compensate the
       | public for these kinds of externalities? It seems absurd that
       | companies performing driverless research can hobble public
       | services and infrastructure without providing some form of
       | compensation, ideally directed towards improving those services.
        
         | vuln wrote:
         | Fines? For stopping traffic? Hahahahhahaha.
         | 
         | You can steal ~899$ worth of shit and the cops don't show up.
         | Open air drug markets, people shitting in the streets,
         | thousands of homeless people. But yeah let's pontificate about
         | fines for someone disrupting traffic.
         | 
         | You gonna fine the person that runs out of gas, causes an
         | accident or just mechanically breaks down?
        
           | dsfyu404ed wrote:
           | >You gonna fine the person that runs out of gas, causes an
           | accident or just mechanically breaks down?
           | 
           | I'm much more interested in fining the crap out of the people
           | who don't have an "excuse" for their bad traffic performance.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | grandmczeb wrote:
         | The Traffic Congestion Mitigation Tax is designed for exactly
         | this purpose.
         | 
         | https://sftreasurer.org/business/taxes-fees/traffic-congesti...
         | 
         | https://www.sfcta.org/funding/tnc-tax
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | In any other locality, the compensation would be a bunch of
         | highly paid tech jobs, paying fat stacks of tax and pulling
         | money from all over the world into the local economy - both
         | from the jobs directly working on the cars' software, and by
         | bootstrapping a technology hub.
         | 
         | Of course, in the case of SF you could argue they have far more
         | highly paid tech jobs than the city can support already, and no
         | need to bootstrap a technology hub....
        
           | woodruffw wrote:
           | This isn't a strong argument for externalities: no
           | municipality in the world would (should?) accept toxic waste
           | being dumped in its water supply just because a small
           | fraction of its tax base is paid handsomely to do so.
           | 
           | Put another way: the value proposition for SF (and other tech
           | cities) exists above and prior to these companies being
           | allowed to treat the city's streets as a testing ground.
        
             | michaelt wrote:
             | Cities allow road users to mess up traffic all the time.
             | 
             | Got a large vehicle that blocks multiple lanes while
             | turning? No problem. Heavy 18-wheelers that fuck up the
             | road surface? We're pro-business. Trash collectors need to
             | stop to collect trash? Of course they do. Customers trying
             | to parallel park block a complete lane of traffic, in
             | addition to the lane of on-street parking? No worries.
             | Taxis want to stop traffic to pick up customers? Sure
             | thing. Delivery drivers want to double park? Well, you
             | gotta deliver somehow, just make it quick. Parked vehicles
             | blocking the cycle lane? Well you'll just have to go
             | around. Slow cyclist in a narrow street? They've got every
             | right to be there. Hire scooters all over the sidewalk?
             | Yeah, that happens.
             | 
             | I'm not sure the comparison to _toxic waste dumping_ is
             | really warranted.
        
               | woodruffw wrote:
               | At least in NYC, nearly all of these have corresponding
               | taxes, levies, or outright bans. For example, the city
               | charges additional taxes against both taxi operators and
               | riders to compensate the public for the congestion they
               | induce[1].
               | 
               | Similarly, 53' trailers are outright illegal in NYC
               | (because they destroy the road surface, as you mentioned,
               | and can't navigate the city safety). Enforcement is
               | currently poor, however.
               | 
               | The point is this: using city streets to trial-run
               | experimental technology is something _new and distinct_ ,
               | and it isn't immediately clear to me why the public
               | shouldn't be compensated for the bother.
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.tax.ny.gov/bus/cs/csidx.htm
        
         | firstlink wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
           | i80and wrote:
           | I know you're being inflammatory to make a point, but calling
           | this "fascistic" is really out of line and dilutes the
           | concept.
        
             | chihuahua wrote:
             | That horse left the barn a long time ago. Over the past
             | several years, the word "fascistic" (and "fascist",
             | obviously) has become so overused that now it just means
             | "something I don't like." Just like "awesome" now means
             | "pretty good."
        
           | Fatnino wrote:
           | Because the government then uses those fees to build or
           | upkeep a public good and the public is spared from having to
           | pay the taxes to do so.
        
             | kjksf wrote:
             | When exactly did that imaginary, completely made up
             | "sparing of taxes" ever happened?
             | 
             | This is San Francisco. The only thing I ever hear from
             | politicians is an additional tax, on top of all the other
             | taxes.
             | 
             | But prove me wrong: when in the last 10 years did San
             | Francisco "spared" or lowered taxes?
             | 
             | San Francisco has a budget of $14 billion dollars.
             | 
             | Paris, France: EUR4.4 billion euro.
             | 
             | The issue is not lack of money but mind boggling,
             | ineffective, corrupt spending of the money.
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | The idea of fining the companies involved is proposed near the
         | end of the article:
         | 
         | > As driverless cars keep racking up the miles, San Francisco
         | transit advocates propose a variety of measures to lessen their
         | impact. Jaime Viloria of Equity on Public Transit, a grassroots
         | group of riders in the Tenderloin neighborhood, says companies
         | operating autonomous vehicles should be fined for causing
         | delays.
        
           | Ajedi32 wrote:
           | Seems fair. If a manually driven car were to block a
           | streetcar like that surely that would result in a fine? This
           | shouldn't require any sort of special treatment for self
           | driving cars one way or the other.
        
             | bradleybuda wrote:
             | Haha, not in San Francisco, no. We've stopped enforcing
             | traffic laws.
             | 
             | https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/bayarea/heatherknight/articl
             | e...
        
             | vuln wrote:
             | What if a manually operated car mechanically breaks down,
             | runs out of gas, or causes an accident are you going to
             | give them a "traffic delay" fine?
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | Whether we do or not, it doesn't have to be tied to the
               | same law.
               | 
               | If the driver just _stops driving_ of their own volition,
               | while in the way, that can be its own kind of ticket.
        
               | stingrae wrote:
               | that is an edge case.
        
               | vuln wrote:
               | Not really. In the Tidewater area of Virginia, the area
               | with the most per capita tunnels, AT LEAST once a day
               | someone runs out of gas or breaks down in one of the 7
               | tunnels causing 30 minute -hour delay. Definitely not an
               | edge case.
        
       | kube-system wrote:
       | Driving is an exercise in line following, until it isn't. This
       | problem isn't solvable until AGI is invented, or we (again) limit
       | automated vehicles to closed circuits where exceptions are less
       | likely to cause cascading faliures.
        
       | ridgered4 wrote:
       | Anyone ever think about what a nightmare driverless cars will be
       | if they actually work? Right now our crumbling infrastructure is
       | loaded with traffic. Imagine if the max amount of driving a human
       | can endure is removed entirely as a final constraint on the total
       | utilization rate of this infrastructure and is replaced with a
       | relentless driving machine that never tires or gets frustrated
       | and has no fear of death.
       | 
       | People would commute up to 4 hours one way, napping in their
       | cars, maybe even longer. Delivery vehicles running all hours of
       | the night, perhaps with no one ever in them at all. People
       | sending the cars to go pick things up or people that they
       | otherwise wouldn't have time in their day to do.
       | 
       | Even if you don't want to live in your car that the pressure will
       | still be exerted on you because you'll be competing with people
       | that do. Cars instructed to circle the block in areas with no
       | parking clogging the streets. You'll need a self driving car
       | yourself to even get a spot since you'll never defeat all the
       | robot vultures.
       | 
       | People will forget how to drive entirely of course so there will
       | be no going back. The whole thing will feed on itself, people
       | will need more self driving cars to get back the time stolen by
       | other self driving cars.
        
         | mindvirus wrote:
         | Of course, like anything there will be major societal changes.
         | But consider a few brighter possibilities:
         | 
         | * Cars are all electric, since the one downside major downside
         | (a long time to charge versus gas) is reduced if they can go
         | charge themselves. So less pollution and noise.
         | 
         | * The number of cars may increase, but so will the capacity of
         | roads due to faster speeds and higher density. So a city could
         | possibly only have a couple of car accessible roads.
         | 
         | * Parking can also get denser, as cars can presumably park
         | themselves and coordinate. So you could build a few massive
         | parking garages (for example) to serve thousands of cars, or
         | require them to park outside of the city.
        
           | gpm wrote:
           | > Cars are all electric [...] So less [...] noise
           | 
           | Tire noise dominates at speeds above roughly 30 kph (20 mph),
           | so on reasonably fast roads not really.
           | 
           | https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Propulsion-noise-the-
           | tyr...
           | 
           | Of course, self driving cars might also mean slower cars,
           | because the drivers are less impatient, and if that is true
           | then noise would go down. On the flip side, self driving cars
           | might end up meaning faster cars because they can coordinate
           | better, increasing noise levels.
        
             | mejutoco wrote:
             | I honestly cannot imagine self-driving cars until trains
             | never crash and trucks are automated.
        
           | JohnFen wrote:
           | > The number of cars may increase, but so will the capacity
           | of roads due to faster speeds and higher density.
           | 
           | As someone who enjoys walking and biking, this strikes me a
           | serious negative, not a positive.
        
         | dpkirchner wrote:
         | I suspect a lot of people won't want to own self-driving cars,
         | especially if you're right and people forget how to drive
         | themselves. We could drastically reduce the amount of parking
         | we need, at least within cities, meaning there probably won't
         | be many cars idly circling blocks.
         | 
         | Personally, I'd be down for a driverless Uber-like service.
        
           | runnerup wrote:
           | This also implies that some nontrivial amount of the driving
           | on roads will be cars with no humans in them, which may also
           | be worse than the status quo.
        
             | dpkirchner wrote:
             | It's possible.
             | 
             | I wonder if we would see as many idle/empty self-driving
             | cars as we do idle/empty human-driven cabs and Ubers/etc. I
             | could see a self-driving system being a lot more efficient
             | because it doesn't have to keep a car on the road for a
             | driver's entire shift.
        
               | Ekaros wrote:
               | I think we will see more. If just keeping them running
               | circles around blocks with most expected demand is nearly
               | same cost it will happen. Specially if they are EVs with
               | automatic charging.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | Damn. I never thought of SDCs as being particularly
               | dystopic, but this would be squarely in that area.
        
           | JohnFen wrote:
           | > I suspect a lot of people won't want to own self-driving
           | cars
           | 
           | If it involves the car having a data link to someone else's
           | server, then I have no interest whatsoever in self-driving
           | vehicles.
        
             | HDThoreaun wrote:
             | This view will have a negligible effect on the market. You
             | and the dozens like you can still have cars and a lot of
             | other people can use the self driving ubers
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | > _You and the dozens like you can still have cars_
               | 
               | Until they don't, because of prohibitive insurance
               | premiums or some accelerated phase-out of HDC bill.
               | That's the blessing and the curse of the technology
               | market: you don't get to keep your old toys if most of
               | the market has moved on.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | I'm always curious when these "your preference is
               | irrelevant" comments pop up.
               | 
               | Yes, you're probably right. So what? I wasn't even
               | remotely asserting otherwise.
        
               | tshaddox wrote:
               | Well, the conversation is mostly about the impact of new
               | technology on large-scale trends. When someone makes a
               | prediction about how "a lot of people" will react to new
               | technology, it's understandable that a reply of "I won't
               | react like that" could be seen as irrelevant.
               | 
               | Like if someone says "a lot of people will buy the new
               | iPhone" and someone replies "I will never own a cellular
               | phone or even a cordless landline phone" I can understand
               | why that could seem irrelevant to the conversation.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | In this case, I was replying to a speculation that a lot
               | of people won't want to own self-driving cars by saying
               | I'm one of those people, and why. My response was on-
               | topic and relevant.
               | 
               | Replies to comments such as mine saying "you don't
               | matter" strike me as interesting because they come off as
               | overly defensive, is all.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | I'd say it's an important reminder, especially that even
               | here, people still cling to the view that you can "vote
               | with your wallet".
               | 
               | Also, it's more than just having "a negligible effect on
               | the market" - if your preferences diverge too much from
               | the main trend, they'll simply not be met _at all_. In
               | this context, it means that with large enough self-
               | driving car adoption, you won 't get to keep a regular
               | car - they'll eventually stop being sold, but by that
               | time you won't be allowed to legally drive one anyway.
        
               | HDThoreaun wrote:
               | So it doesn't matter if a small number of people defect
               | from self driving ride share. Enough people will use it
               | to decrease parking needs.
        
         | crazygringo wrote:
         | Maybe.
         | 
         | On the other hand, ride sharing could mean less cars overall
         | and less car ownership. Electric cars mean fewer or no
         | emissions. Totally automated traffic management could enable
         | vastly higher throughput, and otherwise congested roads could
         | have dynamic tolls applied so people won't use them unless they
         | really need to. Delivery vehicles can batch shopping pickups
         | and dropoffs to use _less_ vehicles than currently.
         | 
         | If problems arise, they can be fixed through policy and
         | incentives. Otherwise, traditional economic incentives for
         | efficiency continue to apply.
        
           | rrradical wrote:
           | Tires emit a fair amount of micro plastics. There's no such
           | thing as zero emission cars.
           | 
           | https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/car-
           | tire...
        
             | apendleton wrote:
             | All the more reason to shift to a pay-per-use model rather
             | than the high-fixed-cost model of car ownership, which
             | incentivizes uses your car for as many trips as possible
             | once you've made the initial expenditure to buy the thing.
             | If these get good enough and cheap enough that significant
             | numbers of people can get away with ditching their cars,
             | those people will probably end up in a situation where
             | transit (including kinds with no tires) will be cheaper on
             | a per-trip basis where it's practical, and robocars will
             | make sense for the remainder.
        
               | ChatGTP wrote:
               | All the more reason Americans should just try learn and
               | adapt to public transport.
        
               | hnav wrote:
               | public transport as implemented in Asia and Europe,
               | especially for last (couple) mile sort of uses is an
               | antiquated idea in a world of self-driving. In a city
               | like San Francisco you could literally ban cars in
               | downtown and have the local transit authority run
               | something like Uber pool of cars that fit 4 passengers
               | comfortably and do point 2 point transit with optimized
               | routing 24/7. The reason buses/trains are so large is to
               | amortize a bunch of things, not the least of which is the
               | driver.
        
               | ChatGTP wrote:
               | Your body needing to go anywhere might become an antique
               | idea very soon... the only reason roads exist is so you
               | can go do work and pay taxes and make wealthy people more
               | wealthy.
               | 
               | After that isn't important, let's see how much priority
               | roads will get.
        
             | crazygringo wrote:
             | I'm definitely not disputing that, although I think
             | "emissions" are generally understood to be airborne. Micro
             | plastics that run off the road into storm water are
             | pollution for sure, but "emissions" seems misleading.
             | 
             | And obviously fewer/no emissions is also referring just to
             | operation, not manufacture or disposal or power plants
             | either.
        
           | cozzyd wrote:
           | I mean, driverless buses (or perhaps minibuses or vans,
           | depending on density) are the way to go.
           | 
           | But... there's another dimension here. Would you share a car
           | with a random stranger with no "trusted" third-party (i.e.
           | the driver) present?
        
             | hnav wrote:
             | I would if the "bus" was small, traveled more like an uber
             | pool (to my destination rather than along a corridor with
             | 30 useless stops a block apart), and if the identity of
             | those strangers was known to a system that could then
             | remove their ability to hail future rides if anything went
             | down.
        
               | californical wrote:
               | But what about the dystopian flip side? You commit a
               | crime once and suddenly you aren't allowed to travel,
               | otherwise the other passengers would feel unsafe? Or your
               | transportation costs increase by 5x to account for you
               | needing private-only accommodation?
               | 
               | Sounds like a great way to isolate someone and make sure
               | there is no chance of rehabilitation, being shunned by
               | the car swarm and isolated away
        
         | shredprez wrote:
         | And thus the motor vehicle takes his rightful place at the top
         | of the food chain: King of the concrete jungle. May he reign
         | forever, tire never, and render his enemies unto the road.
        
         | agumonkey wrote:
         | It was supposed to improve allocation (less people trying to
         | find a parking spot etc) but I guess it may trigger the usual
         | perverse effect.
        
           | astrange wrote:
           | The "usual perverse effect" of policies (aka "risk
           | compensation") almost never happens, people just say it's
           | going to happen and then it doesn't.
           | 
           | This is a disease of the soul caused by reading Freakanomics
           | which makes you think everything that's counterintuitive must
           | actually be true.
        
         | q7xvh97o2pDhNrh wrote:
         | > Imagine if the max amount of driving a human can endure is
         | removed entirely as a final constraint on the total utilization
         | rate of this infrastructure and is replaced with a relentless
         | driving machine that never tires or gets frustrated and has no
         | fear of death.
         | 
         | Sure!
         | 
         | An entire class of accidents and injuries will be entirely
         | gone, saving countless lives. Insurance will get cheaper for
         | everyone. Cities will be able to adapt and grow more quickly,
         | since traffic management can finally happen in realtime and at
         | scale. Pollution will plummet.
         | 
         | Cars can get smaller and smaller, focusing only on having a
         | safe space for passengers and eliminating all the extra
         | "driver" nonsense. With so many cars on the road, you'd always
         | be able to catch a ride, anywhere, anytime.
         | 
         | Each car could have a delicious sandwich compartment, so that
         | it's always doing double-duty for carrying both passengers
         | _and_ sandwiches. (Every car would have a couple drones it
         | could dispatch to pick up and deliver sandwiches, so that
         | passenger trips can go on uninterrupted.)
         | 
         | People will forget how to drive entirely, of course, so there
         | will be no going back. The whole thing will feed on itself, and
         | we'll enter a golden era of cheap transportation and ever-
         | faster sandwich delivery.
        
         | baloki wrote:
         | Honestly I think by that point owning one won't even be a
         | thing. You'll rent it from the manufacturer on demand or via a
         | subscription with your subset of features enabled just for your
         | trip.
         | 
         | They won't park, they'll just move from one job to the next
         | (like taxis and ubers).
        
           | ajcp wrote:
           | I completely agree they can change our relationship with
           | vehicles. Let's look beyond a subscription service though and
           | think how it can be part of a stand-alone auto insurance
           | policy, or offered by your apartment complex as part of your
           | monthly rent, or the HOA and paid for as part of your dues
           | the same as landscaping is. SDCs will be services that are
           | offered as part of a larger relationship/service.
        
             | isquaredr wrote:
             | Interesting take. Would my HOA be controlling utilization
             | and maintenance? If the car has a flat tire or my neighbor
             | monopolizes the usage, would the larger
             | relationship/service be responsible for fixing the issue?
        
               | ajcp wrote:
               | Sure it would, just as any other service provided for by
               | your condo/HOA fees or what have you. BTW I think having
               | a HOA do anything beyond landscaping is probably more of
               | a headache than it's worth, but still...
               | 
               | I think the possibility is more around SDCs becoming not
               | simply a business to individual customer service or
               | subscription, but rather SDCs being offered by
               | organizations the individual customer is already a member
               | of as part of that organizational offering. This can
               | begin at large and wealthy retirement communities first
               | (like Sun City Grand in Phoenix), but there's no reason
               | why it couldn't be implemented elsewhere or why an
               | organization that is already setup to handle customer and
               | vehicle relationships can't offer it as well. Think AARP
               | or your auto insurance company.
        
           | calvinmorrison wrote:
           | I think that's naiive. There's a reason why taxis aren't
           | couriers. There will certainly be specialization. There will
           | still be buses, with AI drivers instead of humans, to get a
           | lot of people from A to B, there will be delivery vans, with
           | maybe delivery robots, maybe there will be taxi's, long haul,
           | etc.
        
         | nuancebydefault wrote:
         | Once you buy the self driving car, you will want it to be on
         | the road as much as possible, you want return on investment.
         | 
         | What will happen is:
         | 
         | Companies will buy fleets of self driving cars.
         | 
         | The best self driving cars will be too expensive for most
         | people to buy.
         | 
         | People will just pay one of those companies for transportation
         | services.
         | 
         | The transportation - serving companies who will use the cars in
         | the most efficient way will survive. They will use AI to
         | optimize the usage of the fleets.
         | 
         | Regulators (governments) will tax the companies per km / time
         | interval / peak hours.
         | 
         | People will pay more if they want to travel alone or want to
         | travel in a straight line. They will pay more if they want more
         | exact timing.
         | 
         | Roads will be safer because they will communicate with the cars
         | and the cars will communicate with other cars.
         | 
         | There will be manned vehicles that will help relieve any
         | obstructions.
         | 
         | In other words, given proper tax rules, transportation will
         | regulate itself in effective and efficient ways.
        
           | tshaddox wrote:
           | > Once you buy the self driving car, you will want it to be
           | on the road as much as possible, you want return on
           | investment.
           | 
           | I don't really follow the argument. I don't think of my car
           | as an "investment." In fact quite the opposite, I think of it
           | as an extremely depreciatory purchase that is partly a
           | necessary cost of living (commuting for work, shopping) and
           | partly for leisure (visiting friends and family, going out on
           | the town, road trips). It makes very little sense to me to
           | "want to be on the road as much as possible," especially
           | considering that most of the depreciation for when I
           | eventually sell it or trade it in is likely going to be based
           | on the odometer rather than the calendar.
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | > _I don 't really follow the argument. I don't think of my
             | car as an "investment." In fact quite the opposite, I think
             | of it as an extremely depreciatory purchase that is partly
             | a necessary cost of living (...)_
             | 
             | This means you'll end up not owning a car at all. Like with
             | housing, those who look at it as investment game outcompete
             | and drive up prices for those who just want a place to live
             | in and call their own.
        
               | thexumaker wrote:
               | Except there needs to be natural demand and short enough
               | supply. You're viewing them like its early 2020 where
               | people were buying up cars and selling them used at a
               | marked up price somehow. People really be trying to treat
               | everything as a profit nowadays
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | > Once you buy the self driving car, you will want it to be
           | on the road as much as possible, you want return on
           | investment.
           | 
           | This is not necessarily a given; after all, most Americans
           | have other little-utilized equipment that nobody bothers to
           | try to "rent out" to maximize usage. Think - washing
           | machines, dish washers, lawn mowers, snow blowers, etc. In
           | fact, there's an entire industry built around storing little-
           | used equipment (storage units).
           | 
           | And we have high-usage vehicles transport already, they're
           | called taxis and they're at use in most major cities; the AI
           | cannot save MORE than the cost of the driver without some
           | magical accounting.
        
             | zdragnar wrote:
             | Most of those things are dirt-cheap compared to a car. A
             | better analogy would be a boat or an RV in a northern
             | climate. Even those tend to be priced roughly in line with
             | a higher end car (where you're more likely to find full
             | self driving).
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | Shortly after we get self-driving cars widely available, most
           | municipalities will have trolly busses that run the grid so
           | that the most you need to wait is like 2 minutes. At which
           | point, a substantial amount of people aren't going to pay $20
           | to get from A to B when you can get there slightly slower for
           | $2.
        
             | zdragnar wrote:
             | The wages of the driver are hardly the limiting factor of
             | busses right now. We could easily have many more in
             | operation, but we don't, because running an empty bus is
             | very expensive.
        
               | bps4484 wrote:
               | Is this true?
               | 
               | That's a legitimate question I haven't done the research
               | on this. It would seem though that usually it's a
               | municipal employee, probably a union job, so probably
               | paid pretty well (relative to say an uber driver). Also
               | that cost for the driver would be double if you half the
               | size of the bus and run them twice as much which would be
               | a better experience for passengers. It would seem like
               | the cost of drivers could be a real impact but this is me
               | being handwavy I haven't crunched any numbers.
        
             | opportune wrote:
             | Yeah, I think a lot of people don't recognize that SDC
             | technology can eventually be applied to busses or smaller
             | transit vans. You can get fancy with dynamic routing (with
             | my fleet of busses and customers asking me to take them
             | from A to B, how do I route the busses to serve the most
             | customers the fastest?) but even just running a SDBus on a
             | fixed route could be pretty convenient. It would basically
             | take us back to the "streetcar suburb" paradigm.
        
             | Ekaros wrote:
             | Even individual companies will drive it to the bottom.
             | Humans out of picture they will drive price to few
             | percentage of margins. Or if we get VC money involved
             | beyond that.
        
             | hnav wrote:
             | IDT that's the future, and here's why: if you go to any
             | modern skyscraper you'll find that elevators ask you which
             | floor you're going to rather than just which direction.
             | Applying this in 2 dimensions, it becomes obvious that the
             | future is something like Zoox's 4 passenger car running
             | point to point a la Uber pool.
        
           | bell-cot wrote:
           | > ...given proper tax rules, transportation will regulate
           | itself in effective and efficient ways.
           | 
           | And if you mix together "modern American government" and
           | "billions of dollars at stake for mega-corporations" - just
           | how close to zero is the real-world probability of those
           | "proper tax rules" being made and maintained?
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | user3939382 wrote:
         | Cars that never have a driver could be much smaller. Eventually
         | what we need for this scenario in congested areas is a driving
         | decision protocol that's based on consensus with neighboring
         | cars, some kind of leader election algorithm, etc. If all cars
         | were full self driving they could in some situations drive at
         | super high speeds as a swarm, you wouldn't even need
         | stoplights.
        
           | HDThoreaun wrote:
           | Wouldn't want to be in the car swarm that had a Byzantine
           | fault.
        
           | akiselev wrote:
           | I love your optimism. I predict the GP is correct though,
           | since everyone will want one of those Mercedes megavans to
           | set up a comfortable bed or office while stuck in traffic.
           | There's no way I'm going to sleep or work in a tiny self
           | driving smartcar.
           | 
           | Since they'll autopark or circle anyway, their size no longer
           | becomes a limiting factor for most people.
        
         | thegabriele wrote:
         | Surely all these points are food for thoughts, but it seems
         | that in this scenario we solved the energy cost/production
         | problem first
        
         | lallysingh wrote:
         | I guess it's the season of AI fear. Humans don't rarely drive
         | to their endurance levels now, so why would removal of a
         | rarely-used limit affect much?
         | 
         | 8 hours (4+4) spent in commuting, driving or not, is an entire
         | life. This isn't a realistic concern, but something pulled out
         | of a cyberpunk novel.
         | 
         | Cars can park away from you and come back to pick you up. This
         | should alleviate parking problems, and reduce parking-space-
         | search based congestion on the street.
         | 
         | Learning to drive was never that hard.
        
           | anigbrowl wrote:
           | I've met several people who in pre-pandemic times were
           | commuting from beyond Sacramento to San Francisco, which is
           | about a 4-5 hour daily commute. You'd be surprised how far
           | some people will go to have both a good paying job and the
           | house of their dreams.
        
             | earthling8118 wrote:
             | Now if only there were time to enjoy those things
        
             | manquer wrote:
             | There are plenty of places between SF city and _beyond_
             | Sacramento which would be just as affordable.
             | 
             | this kind of commute _daily_ no less seems to be more of a
             | stubborn personal choice than any economics forcing it .
        
             | Arrath wrote:
             | What the hell is the point? With that kind of commute
             | assuming they work a full day they'll be home for a scant
             | few hours a night sleeping (we hope, for the sake of other
             | commuters) and the weekends for which they'll probably be
             | dead tired.
        
               | pc86 wrote:
               | Nobody actually does this commute 5 days a week, 45-50
               | weeks a year. It's either someone who does it
               | sporadically but regularly (e.g. every other Monday or
               | something for a few years) or briefly while finding
               | something less insane (for a few weeks, maybe a month or
               | two).
               | 
               | I had a job with an effective ~4-hour round trip commute,
               | from one major city to another in both my car and a
               | train, but only had to do it once a month.
        
               | RandallBrown wrote:
               | I used to have a similar commute into NYC. I lived about
               | a 10 minute walk from the train station and my office was
               | another 10 minute walk from Grand Central Station. Round
               | trip was about 4 hours. I did the commute about 3 days
               | per week but saw tons of people on the train that did it
               | every day. I saw a guy talking to the conductor saying it
               | was his last time commuting after THIRTY YEARS. I imagine
               | most of those people were driving to the train station
               | and then taking another subway once they made it into the
               | city, adding a considerable amount of time to the already
               | brutal commute.
               | 
               | I only lasted a year before I went fully remote.
        
               | Spooky23 wrote:
               | I take the 510 AM train from Albany to NYC about once a
               | month. There's a dozen folks who are on that train enough
               | that I recognize them or chat with them. There's a few
               | who board at Hudson too.
               | 
               | It's a mix of lawyers, construction guys and others like
               | FDNY guys.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | If I go into the city for a customer visit (not
               | frequent/not rare), I'm 2 hours going in whether mostly
               | train or mostly car. And about the same going home by
               | train and maybe more like an hour+ by car.
               | 
               | I did have a job that was about 90 minutes door-to-door
               | each way (train schedules were a bit better then) but
               | even then "only" had to do it about 50% of the time.
               | Wouldn't have been long-term sustainable.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | I don't think it's 8 hour commutes so much. But that I could
           | now take the 75-90 minute trip into the city that's about 50
           | miles away for dinner/show without thinking about it too
           | much. I've really cut down on casually swinging into town to
           | meet someone or do an activity on a weeknight because it's
           | just a hassle to drive with all the traffic and driving back
           | home when I'm probably getting a bit tired.
           | 
           | Of course, it still costs money and if everyone does that now
           | maybe it's 2+ hours in a car each way and I still won't
           | mostly do it.
           | 
           | I'd also routinely take the car into the city for a work
           | event of some sort rather than dealing with non-trivial
           | hassle of multi-modal driving to the train station and 2
           | different forms of public transit.
        
           | yesco wrote:
           | > 8 hours (4+4) spent in commuting, driving or not, is an
           | entire life
           | 
           | There are already people who live in their vans anyway, if
           | they didn't even need to drive them anymore perhaps areas
           | with overzealous zoning laws that circumvent supply & demand
           | would see an influx of small moving apartments instead.
           | 
           | It would be like a land yacht, and economically sound so long
           | as the price of gas is lower than the price of rent.
        
             | theossuary wrote:
             | This is my plan. As soon as self driving tech is available
             | I'm putting it in a school busy mini-house. Punch in any
             | destination and then live my life while I head there. It'll
             | basically be teleportation in my lifetime.
        
               | elif wrote:
               | What you describe is basically how my wife and I treat
               | the model Y on road trips, except we speak the
               | destination instead of punch it in.
               | 
               | But you'll still want to wear a seatbelt because although
               | self driving cars don't tend to cause accidents, they
               | very much are the victim of them.
               | 
               | And consider the electricity demand of keeping your big
               | skooli heated and cooled compared to that of a small and
               | tight modern vehicle, you'll likely be forced into
               | charging last thing every night and first thing every
               | morning while on the road, while for us it is about 25%
               | of battery on the worst nights so we can camp anywhere.
        
           | mrcode007 wrote:
           | This debate reminds me of one of the funniest hacks ever:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drzymala%27s_wagon
        
           | mgsouth wrote:
           | > 8 hours (4+4) spent in commuting, driving or not, is an
           | entire life. This isn't a realistic concern, but something
           | pulled out of a cyberpunk novel.
           | 
           | You poor innocent child. Spent a couple of years of my life
           | doing pretty much that, in crowded trains with a thousand
           | others doing the same. Some did it for many, many years. It's
           | a thing. (OK, I was lucky about where I worked and _only_ had
           | a 3-hr commute each way.)
           | 
           | Related data point... my commuting choices were
           | 
           | a) drive all or most of the way (saving 45 minutes to an hour
           | each way);
           | 
           | b) drive 15 minutes to a park-and-ride, take a commuter bus;
           | 
           | c) drive 45 minutes to train station, take train in (extra 30
           | to 45 minutes each way, exta $$/mo).
           | 
           | Often did (b) for practical reasons, much preferred (c) for
           | comfort. Didn't do (a) too often. (d) "black car" (private
           | driver) was an idle astronomically expensive dream. But if it
           | was only a relatively small premium over normal car
           | ownership? I and 100's of thousands of my fellow commuters
           | would have given our left kidneys.
        
             | tmpz22 wrote:
             | In the Bay Area in particular it is known commutes from
             | Sacramento, Gilroy, and elsewhere happen. To say nothing of
             | traffic and closures (devil's slide is STILL closed between
             | Pacifica and Half Moon Bay) creating 3+ hour commutes from
             | what google maps may indicate as < 2 hour commutes.
        
           | roughly wrote:
           | > This isn't a realistic concern, but something pulled out of
           | a cyberpunk novel.
           | 
           | Can I direct your attention to all of the labor market
           | everything since Reagan?
        
           | brenns10 wrote:
           | > Cars can park away from you and come back to pick you up.
           | This should alleviate parking problems, and reduce parking-
           | space-search based congestion on the street.
           | 
           | I know this sounds nice for just a moment, but if you
           | consider it longer, it's awful. It won't decrease congestion,
           | it will increase it. Why?
           | 
           | 1. Cars will still be searching for parking: many people will
           | prefer to have their car nearby. It's not as if every car
           | will altruistically drive to a far-off area. Since self
           | driving cars have more patience than humans, they'll be on
           | the road much longer searching for their parking. It may be
           | more efficient to keep the car circling the block, which is
           | even worse.
           | 
           | 2. Parking availability is a major inhibitor of car trips,
           | especially in cities. This is a good thing. If it becomes
           | easier to "park" (ie leave your car driving on the street or
           | send it away), that will induce more car trips, and more car
           | trips means more congestion, until there's a new equilibrium
           | (maybe a 7-minute parking search is eliminated, but it's
           | replaced with 7+ minutes of traffic).
           | 
           | 3. Pick-up and drop-off in cities is already difficult with
           | rideshare services. If all personal vehicles are doing it as
           | well, they'll definitely congest the curb lanes more. This is
           | definitely a more solvable problem than the first two, but
           | still an annoyance.
           | 
           | And for what it's worth, the 4-hour commute may be a bit far
           | fetched, but it's hard to deny that many wouldn't mind an
           | extra 20 minutes of commute time in traffic if they can
           | relax, nap, read, watch a show, etc. People will chose that
           | option more, adding more trips and more congestion, until an
           | equilibrium is reached. Maybe it won't be 4-hour commute
           | times but it will be a major increase and added congestion.
           | 
           | All of these extra miles traveled searching for parking, and
           | adding extra congestion, are disastrous to cities and
           | neighborhoods. Sure, the fossil fuel emissions alone would be
           | awful, but suppose (charitably) that all autonomous vehicles
           | are electric, and assume that their electricity generation is
           | emission free (unrealistic for decades). The weight of EV
           | batteries will dramatically increase road wear and tear, and
           | they'll increase the pollution due to rubber tires, which are
           | already the major source of microplastic pollution. And of
           | course, it's a dramatic waste of energy from the power grid.
           | And all of this is ignoring that dedicating that much road
           | space storing to idling and parked vehicles is a no-good,
           | terrible, awful way to utilize public space in a city or
           | neighborhood, when it could be used by some efficient public
           | transit, parks, and safer infrastructure for personal
           | vehicles when necessary.
        
             | lallysingh wrote:
             | Price the spots by location (or bid) and make their
             | availability known through a web service. The parking trip
             | is a straight shot and spot congestion is managed better
             | than today. Another benefit of automating a manual process.
        
               | brenns10 wrote:
               | Sure, fair market pricing for parking via bidding would
               | be amazing. Of course, there's decades of subsidies for
               | parking built-in, but the price would still be much
               | higher than you'd expect. (Check out "The High Cost of
               | Free Parking" by Donald Shoup for a great overview of the
               | huge public subsidy we already give cars, paid for by
               | non-drivers).
               | 
               | You'd then need to price the time a vehicle spends on the
               | road without an occupant. Otherwise you're just pushing
               | people to send their cars around the block for an hour to
               | avoid paying market rate for parking.
               | 
               | But it's hard to enforce the "unoccupied vehicle" rule,
               | so it would be much better to just charge for all road
               | use time in high congestion areas. Maybe... congestion
               | pricing?
        
               | elif wrote:
               | In many European and Asian cities this is a solved
               | problem. You buy your own parking spot, lease one by
               | year, or pay for the expensive hourly lots. Those are
               | your only options.
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | Tolled roads and market parking are likely to come, just
               | with different names. Bay Area terms are "demand-
               | responsive parking pricing" and HOT.
        
               | fortran77 wrote:
               | Everyone pays for free parking, not just non drivers.
        
               | brenns10 wrote:
               | Exactly. Which means drivers are getting a great discount
               | thanks to the people who don't use a car, and the non-
               | drivers are getting a markup on all the prices they pay.
               | And the non-drivers were already paying a huge amount to
               | maintain car infrastructure (at least in the US) because
               | the gas tax doesn't nearly cover it.
               | 
               | Now don't get me wrong, I understand the value of a
               | public good. Grocery stores receive food via trucks on
               | roads, so even non-drivers get the benefit of the road.
               | The parking subsidy, however, is insidious because it's
               | so much less visible. It's not a government investing in
               | a public good: the city instead requires businesses to
               | maintain off-street parking, and they pass that cost on
               | to everyone. It lets everybody believe that parking, and
               | driving altogether, is much cheaper than it really is,
               | because the (actually enormous) parking costs are hidden
               | away and subsidized by those who don't use it.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | >the city instead requires businesses to maintain off-
               | street parking, and they pass that cost on to everyone
               | 
               | I'm not sure how generally true that is where I live
               | relatively nearby (Boston/Cambridge). There are some
               | businesses that have generally fairly crowded/small
               | parking lots. (And places like hospitals certainly do
               | though you generally have to pay for them.) But in
               | general you have to pay for metered parking or find a
               | garage.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | I'm not seeing the downsides.
        
               | brenns10 wrote:
               | Congestion pricing and market rate, unsubsidized parking
               | _should_ be the default already. So let's start with
               | those policies now :)
        
             | purpleblue wrote:
             | > 1. Cars will still be searching for parking: many people
             | will prefer to have their car nearby.
             | 
             | You're not thinking with an open mind.
             | 
             | If I own a robot car and I know I'm going to be at dinner
             | for 2 hours, I will send the robot car to do a few Uber
             | rides while I'm eating. Or it will go and charge. It
             | doesn't have to just drive around in circles like a human.
             | It can coordinate will all the other robot cars in the area
             | and pick a place where it won't create traffic, or they can
             | distribute traffic among each other. Maybe it can park-
             | share, where if there are 3 cars and 2 parking spots, the 3
             | cars can coordinate and rotate who goes driving around.
             | 
             | Maybe robot cars will be fungible, so you don't own a
             | specific robot car, but you own a time share, so all the
             | cars are basically like Ubers, and you can call the one
             | closest to you.
             | 
             | The possibilities are endless, don't think that a robot car
             | will just emulate a human.
        
               | jayknight wrote:
               | Having a car come pick me up and take me to/from work
               | would be great, and with no human to pay would be cheaper
               | than owning a car for that purpose. But the family car
               | packed with backpacks, jackets, sports gear, etc is gonna
               | make owning at least one car per family that can afford
               | it a reality for a long time. But self driving taxis will
               | revolutionize how we get places and get stuff delivered,
               | and ultimately for the better.
        
               | elif wrote:
               | Or, your car parks in the spot you yourself would park
               | in, the ones building codes require the restaurant to
               | provide.
               | 
               | No one wants their $60k+ self driving car casually
               | risking accidents. And I certainly don't want to end my
               | date night with drunk/messy Uber patron roulette for like
               | $10 profit. Not hating if you do.. just not for me.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | > Or, your car parks in the spot you yourself would park
               | in, the ones building codes require the restaurant to
               | provide.
               | 
               | In that case it sounds like the self-driving doesn't
               | matter and we're no worse off.
        
               | CPLX wrote:
               | > If I own a robot car and I know I'm going to be at
               | dinner for 2 hours, I will send the robot car to do a few
               | Uber rides while I'm eating.
               | 
               | I mean assuming I don't want to leave my sunglasses in
               | the car, or anything else.
        
               | brenns10 wrote:
               | I mean, for sure there are some cool moonshot ideas.
               | However I think it's pretty important to have some proof
               | of concept or even a technical idea of how that would
               | work before dismissing all of the concerns around
               | congestion. Waving around "tech will save us" is really
               | easy to do. (Especially when the solution to congestion
               | already exists and is criminally underfunded.)
               | 
               | You're right that I did predicate that little rant on the
               | idea that the majority of AVs would be personally owned
               | and not part of a fleet. I'm sure that car share will
               | come into play to some degree, but I do think it's tough
               | to convince people who are used to their car being a
               | personal, (relatively) private space that they can store
               | nearly for free on public roads, to give that up. It's
               | especially hard to convince the automobile industry that
               | the incredibly profitable 1-2 car per household model
               | should be pushed aside in order to manufacture fewer,
               | shared vehicles. Cruise (i.e. GM) will not cannibalize
               | their personal car sale business: they're using this as a
               | way to get test data to build personal AVs. Maybe car
               | share will increase over time, but we're not about to
               | witness some revolution, especially if it reduces
               | consumption or profit.
        
               | coeneedell wrote:
               | I'm not sure why the idea that the cars will talk to each
               | other is so "moonshot". We have much more impressive
               | pieces of infrastructure in place already. What might be
               | moonshot is my proposal that it should be run by the US
               | Postal Service.
        
               | brenns10 wrote:
               | I think it's a moonshot because it expects that we will
               | have shared, open standards and protocols for all of
               | this, which will either need to come from industry, or
               | from regulators. Neither feels very likely. But then
               | again, it could happen :)
        
           | Spooky23 wrote:
           | How many cars are operating 12 hours a day?
           | 
           | With self driving cars, it will be like a NYC taxi, the goal
           | is 24 hour operations.
        
             | Dylan16807 wrote:
             | Only if it's serving a lot of users.
             | 
             | So for _those_ cars, the time on the road per user doesn 't
             | change much, but the need for parking greatly decreases.
        
           | donmcronald wrote:
           | > 8 hours (4+4) spent in commuting, driving or not, is an
           | entire life. This isn't a realistic concern, but something
           | pulled out of a cyberpunk novel.
           | 
           | What if that time is spent sleeping? Maybe you don't even
           | need a house, so you'll have more money to spend on a nice
           | car.
        
             | sporkl wrote:
             | If you don't have a house, and sleeping when you're in the
             | car, then why would you bother commuting at all?
        
               | nix0n wrote:
               | In many places within the USA it is illegal to sleep in a
               | car.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | Maybe you're the next generation of digital nomads -
               | working from a nice location for a day, then sleeping in
               | your car while it shuttles you to a new nice location for
               | tomorrow.
        
             | lallysingh wrote:
             | That just digs deeper into cyberpunk distopia.
        
               | trgn wrote:
               | lol
               | 
               | It's really uncanny, every time, there it is, man must
               | submit to the technology rather than have technology
               | submit to us. Because a self-driving car is advanced
               | technology, therefore men must move with self-driving
               | cars. Even if that literally includes having to live out
               | of your car.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | Indeed this is how it works. Or, more accurately, man has
               | to use the new technology to keep up with other men, as
               | those who don't get outraced by those to do. The end
               | result is a ratchet of progress.
               | 
               | It's ironic how people in software don't notice it,
               | despite the fact that our industry caused several such
               | shifts, and we're all living with (and whining about) the
               | consequences. Myself I didn't notice it for close to two
               | decades since first learning to code. The realization
               | came to me with age - I'm at the point where I have more
               | disposable income than free time, so all the "wonderful"
               | self-service software enabled now grates and irritates me
               | to no end.
        
         | Jeff_Brown wrote:
         | Easy to solve: Price time on the road quadratically.
        
         | rodgerd wrote:
         | > Anyone ever think about what a nightmare driverless cars will
         | be if they actually work?
         | 
         | The scenario you outline was part of Mega-City One's landscape
         | in the 2000AD/Judge Dredd comics: cars on the road all day
         | every day, with people living out of their perpetually moving
         | RVs; something similar was depicted for Termight in the Nemesis
         | the Warlock series.
        
         | rtsao wrote:
         | I recall many years ago Jonathan Hall (economist at Uber)
         | describing a "traffic apocalypse" caused by _empty_ self-
         | driving cars flooding city streets. I think the notion was the
         | operational cost of self-driving cars was so low that wasteful
         | (empty car) usage would skyrocket without anyone directly
         | paying the cost of time /road use. Today, the mean number of
         | people per car on the road is at least 1, but with empty AVs
         | that could plummet to <1.
         | 
         | I believe this scenario was discussed as an argument for
         | congestion pricing, serving as a vital solution to the tragedy
         | of the commons exacerbated by self-driving cars.
        
           | prawn wrote:
           | I've never forgotten a Hacker News comment about the same
           | idea - might have predated Uber even. If parking costs
           | increase, and self-driving cars can recharge cheaply, then
           | we'll see them slowly navigating streets en masse while
           | waiting for their next gigs. Like a molasses taxi rank oozing
           | around with no urgency.
        
             | medellin wrote:
             | I already had this experience where i had to wait 30
             | minutes for someone to come pickup a car. Driving it around
             | was cheaper than parking it for 30 minutes
        
         | opportune wrote:
         | I see self driving cars as a backwards compatible way for us to
         | reimagine infrastructure.
         | 
         | Right now, SDC is operating in the real world, in non-trivial
         | environments (San Francisco), without special road
         | infrastructure to make them work. It's beautifully backwards
         | compatible, at the cost of not being generalized (the service
         | areas are extensively mapped).
         | 
         | Once SDC take off we'll likely start getting infrastructure and
         | rules to support them. Think standards for communicating
         | position locally - ie car A broadcasts its position and route
         | to cars B, C, D within 200m, special road infrastructure to
         | make lanes and corners more manageable for SDC, rules against
         | aimless circling. There's already a carrying cost in the form
         | of gas or electricity plus wear incentivizing aimless driving,
         | also the opportunity cost of not actively moving someone or
         | something, but we can probably introduce some kind of toll or
         | tax on a SDC operating with no humans inside it to further
         | disincentivize this.
         | 
         | A very useful thing about SDC, and something I think people
         | forget about rideshare and taxis, is that they let people move
         | around independently without needing parking for those trips.
         | In dense cities like SF and NYC that's hugely useful. A single
         | rideshare or SDC can move 10 people on custom routes without
         | any of those people needing to find and pay for parking, and
         | without using any parking infrastructure. That's great because
         | it disincentivizes wasting more space on parking in aggregate.
         | Over time this should let us build denser.
         | 
         | Of course, public transit could obviate all these concerns, and
         | I'm a big believer in funding way more public transit than we
         | do already, but it will take a lot of time and political will
         | to make that happen in the US. And it still does not offer the
         | flexibility of SDC and rideshare. SDC is fully compatible with
         | existing infrastructure and may give us a way to morph into
         | public transit more smoothly with things like dynamically
         | routed SDBusses and a reduction of parking infrastructure
         | leading to denser urban environments that more easily support
         | public transit. I think we can solve the "spending too much
         | time on the road doing nothing" problem with congestion
         | pricing, which we should really be doing already.
        
           | akira2501 wrote:
           | > I see self driving cars as a backwards compatible way for
           | us to reimagine infrastructure.
           | 
           | Which may be.. but backwards compatibility doesn't absolve
           | you of actually doing maintenance on your legacy systems.
           | Unless the upgrade is free.
        
           | pc86 wrote:
           | I've never been to a major city, especially NYC or SF, and
           | thought "man this would be great if it was just a little
           | _denser_. "
        
             | q7xvh97o2pDhNrh wrote:
             | SF could frankly stand to be 5-10x denser. It's not getting
             | any bigger, but more and more people want to live there.
        
             | renewiltord wrote:
             | Funny, that's my prime complaint about SF (which I
             | otherwise love). I'd like it to be like Tokyo's inner
             | districts.
             | 
             | I believe it's quite common. In about 50 y this place will
             | look very different.
        
             | prawn wrote:
             | The most enjoyable cities/suburbs I've experienced around
             | the world have been fairly dense in terms of narrow streets
             | and multi storey buildings. 3-6 storey buildings on
             | average. NYC and SF already have a good amount like this,
             | though still dominated by roads. There'd also be scope to
             | turn parking lots into actual parks or multi-purpose areas
             | for events, food stalls and so on. Parking lots are just
             | grim.
        
         | SergeAx wrote:
         | On the other hand, we will see a sharp decline in human-driven
         | cars on the streets. Who would do it themself anyway? At every
         | moment we will have on the streets exactly the number of cars
         | to serve current demand. They will not clog curb parking places
         | - there's no point for driverless car just to stay there for
         | nothing. They will not roam free - there's no point for that
         | too. They will stay in the cheapest, ergo most inaccessible for
         | humans places waiting for orders.
        
         | adrr wrote:
         | If cars could talk to each other you'll get better utilization
         | of the road because you could cut follow distance to a few
         | feet.
        
           | isquaredr wrote:
           | Sounds good in theory. I'm not optimistic about all the car
           | makers cooperating on an industry standard, though. Plus the
           | failure scenario seems pretty catastrophic to overall
           | throughput. I hope some bright thinker figures those problems
           | out; it does seem like a great opportunity
        
             | tshaddox wrote:
             | It doesn't seem like you'd need an "industry standard"
             | beyond the actual rules of the road. In the same way that
             | normal human-operated cars with better visibility can
             | change lanes on the highway more safely and efficiently,
             | any improvements in sensor ability, reaction times, etc. in
             | self-driving cars (and even automatic safety features for
             | human-operated cars) should make traffic safer and more
             | efficient.
        
           | Gordonjcp wrote:
           | No, because physics is not affected.
        
         | tenebrisalietum wrote:
         | Gosh, if it gets to the point where cars never stop circling
         | because there's no parking ... we could like, make the cars
         | bigger, and longer, and then people can just hop on and off as
         | needed ... maybe even make a few of them go underground and
         | such. Could even give them a cool name - like Timed Rides
         | Around In the Near Streets or something like that. If we put
         | these things on rails then they would even cause far less wear
         | and tear on the road.
        
           | yjftsjthsd-h wrote:
           | Yes, if cars continue to just massively decline in
           | performance and quality of life, become entirely a shared
           | resource, and lose all their advantages, than they could
           | rival trains.
        
             | tenebrisalietum wrote:
             | If the road is full and cars are circling because there is
             | nowhere to park, then performance doesn't matter, quality
             | of life is already low, and cars no longer have advantages.
        
         | elif wrote:
         | Actually my experience with self driving cars is the exact
         | opposite.
         | 
         | After giving control over to an AI, suddenly I don't care at
         | all about saving 3 minutes by picking the perfect lane, getting
         | the best spot on every merge, maxing out the speed limit
         | threshold where the local police will pull me over.
         | 
         | That kind of gamification with no tangible reward actually
         | generates the anxiety. When you're no longer the player,
         | there's no more anxiety about those weird time optimizations.
         | 
         | If streets are "clogged" it saves me a few pennies and gives me
         | less reason to worry about a human cutting across to risk my
         | life for no reason. It's actually kinda relaxing.
         | 
         | But you are wrong about one thing: AI have a fear of death.
         | Every aspect of their training is hyper focused on a paranoid
         | level of death avoidance.
         | 
         | When I picked up my father from the airport last month, I did
         | your worst nightmare, my car circled the terminal for about an
         | hour while I jammed out to progressive rock. 90% of the time I
         | was in bumper to bumper on a closed access road with no
         | entrance or exit. From a traffic perspective it was irrelevant
         | whether I was there or not. On the 10% when I reached the
         | terminal on the loop, surprise, I was blocked by loading cars
         | in front of me... The same blockage the car behind me would
         | face.
        
           | Gordonjcp wrote:
           | Why can't you just drive like that yourself?
        
         | baremetal wrote:
         | Who needs to park, just let the car sit in an alley or side
         | street in the middle of the road and if someone comes it moves
         | on its own.
        
           | Ekaros wrote:
           | Or drive circles around the block... At current parking rates
           | might be the cheaper option. And it probably doesn't consume
           | that much power when all the cars are doing it and whole
           | thing is gridlocked.
        
       | ElfinTrousers wrote:
       | Dear manufacturers of driverless cars: let's see how they do in
       | Boston. We'll be here anytime you're feeling brave.
        
         | world2vec wrote:
         | Let's step it up, let's see how it fares in a city from
         | medieval times, like Coimbra (Portugal) or Avignon (France).
        
           | quonn wrote:
           | Let's see how it fares in Marrakesh or Delhi.
        
             | world2vec wrote:
             | That's super-hard mode!
        
           | jutrewag wrote:
           | When I was on vacation there earlier this year, I drove right
           | into the middle of the old walled city in Avignon until I
           | noticed people giving me wired looks and a confused cop asked
           | me how I got in there.
        
             | scottLobster wrote:
             | Out of curiosity I looked up Avignon on google maps, and
             | sure the roads are skinny as hell but they exist and there
             | plenty of cars. The whole place is viewable on Google
             | Street View, presumably taken from a car. Maybe you were
             | just in a restricted area?
             | 
             | Cars in Avignon Old Walled City: https://www.google.com/map
             | s/@43.9491327,4.8100308,3a,75y,99.... https://www.google.co
             | m/maps/@43.9493463,4.8114883,3a,75y,328... https://www.goog
             | le.com/maps/@43.9482465,4.8084919,3a,75y,3.4... https://www
             | .google.com/maps/@43.9476804,4.8115635,3a,75y,126...
        
               | jutrewag wrote:
               | Huh maybe it was just restricted during those hours? I
               | did see some parked in there so maybe they were residents
               | or employees with special permits.
        
         | gwbas1c wrote:
         | Ever since I got a GPS, I don't mind driving in Boston.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | I won't say I don't mind. But, for the relatively few
           | occasions I drive into Boston proper, it's certainly an
           | improvement over balancing a map in your lap and trying to
           | figure out where you are and where you're going. It can still
           | be tricky and it's fairly to miss turns but much easier.
        
         | opportune wrote:
         | I live in SF, I've been seeing driverless cars in the Bay Area
         | for 4 years, and recently I've started riding in them
         | commercially because I'm opted into their public testing
         | programs/commercial riding.
         | 
         | I don't think they'll have much trouble in Boston. The current
         | Cruise service area includes a lot of steep hills, narrow roads
         | with parking/pedestrians on each side, and some winding
         | streets. Driverless cars are typically pretty cautious around
         | hazards like this, sometimes a bit too much (like driving up to
         | a stop sign too slowly), but matching what I would want a "safe
         | driver" to do.
         | 
         | I took a Cruise in the rain a few days ago and the rain didn't
         | seem to cause any problems at all. Even though you can only
         | take Cruise at night, between 9 and 12 pm there have still been
         | plenty of situations where it had to deal with pedestrians
         | walking across middle of streets, opening and closing doors of
         | cars parked on the street, cars stopping in the middle of the
         | road to unload pedestrians, etc. and it's actually handled all
         | of them well.
         | 
         | When the cars get stuck, I am pretty sure it's because they are
         | in "mapping mode". I think it's weird and likely unscaleable
         | for an entire service area to need to be mapped before opened
         | commercially, but once the cars are actually "working" they
         | don't get stuck much.
         | 
         | Anyway, I think the only real problem with Boston would be snow
         | and ice (on the ground, I think the rains and fog in SF are
         | close enough that cars could handle snow and ice in the air).As
         | far as I know, no self driving car company has tested much
         | under snowy/icy conditions.
        
           | pound wrote:
           | it's 10PM - 5:30AM to be precise
        
         | blamazon wrote:
         | Just geofence it to the land that was water before about the
         | 1800s and it'll work it fine ;)
        
         | igetspam wrote:
         | As a human driver who has navigated both Boston and SF, they're
         | both equally terrible. Once you're in the middle of downtown
         | for either city, you should abandon your car, your plans and
         | hope. Just walk.
        
           | james_pm wrote:
           | That's basically what these cars do in SF, apparently. They
           | get themselves into a situation with no way to figure out a
           | way forward and they shut down.
        
           | rippercushions wrote:
           | The weather in Boston is considerably more challenging than
           | SF though.
        
             | ElfinTrousers wrote:
             | Though to be fair that San Francisco fog is famous for a
             | reason too. I'm sure that doesn't help.
        
             | clsec wrote:
             | Well, as an example, last year the lights at the
             | intersection outside my apartment went out during a heavy
             | rain storm. I also tend to have a lot of driverless cars in
             | my neighborhood. I watched how cars were dealing with the
             | blacked out intersection. I saw two different Waymo cars
             | stop at the intersection as CA law requires. Then I saw a
             | Cruise car approach the intersection. As it did it slowed a
             | little but then seemed to speed up as it blew through the
             | intersection. I could only imagine the nightmare during a
             | bad nor'easter!
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | For all its reputation, I'm not sure Boston is clearly a
             | lot harder to drive in generally than a lot of San
             | Francisco is--given Boston weather for maybe 8 months out
             | of the year. However, after a big snowstorm (admittedly not
             | much this year) it's a whole other game. And while it's
             | easy to say just don't use self-driving if there's a
             | snowstorm or if lanes are partially blocked by snow, that's
             | not ultimately a driving system that can be depended on.
             | And I guarantee people who maybe only drive a few dozen
             | times a year in the worst conditions will be an absolute
             | menace on the roads.
             | 
             | (And "just don't drive then" isn't an option for a lot of
             | people in a lot of circumstances.)
        
             | opportune wrote:
             | I don't think any self driving cars have been trained for
             | snow yet, but it does rain (sometimes pretty hard) in SF,
             | and because we have wet/dry seasons rains are more
             | hazardous in some cases due to months of oils all being
             | disrupted at once. It can also be quite windy in SF, it's
             | common for gusts to reach >20mph on random sunny days,
             | especially this time of year. So aside from snow and ice(
             | big exceptions, for sure) I think they can handle Boston
             | weather.
        
       | narrator wrote:
       | Let's take this in the context of Net Zero 2050[1]. Most human
       | driven cars will be banned or made painfully expensive because of
       | elimination of gas stations and lack of urban charging
       | infrastructure. It's already well-established that mass adoption
       | of urban electric cars will fail because of inability to charge
       | them all[2].
       | 
       | The self-driving cars will slowly have their carbon usage
       | rationed. That rationing will pass down to the individual in
       | increasingly compressed travel ranges. Most people will
       | eventually walk or not leave their 15 minute cities because of
       | roving knife-wielding crackheads (RKC). RKCs will keep people in
       | their high-security high rise pods[3] and lower resource
       | consumption and help get rid of the miserably non-ecologically
       | correct single family home via repeated unpunished "frequent
       | flyer" RKC home invasion[4]. Becoming a RKC will be a pretty cool
       | way to go, but you know you could die at any moment from the
       | wrong pill. If you pick the right pill often enough, one's
       | existence will be better than all the high-rise pod dwellers and
       | you'll be glad you came out from Oklahoma and how nice the "fresh
       | air" is in San Francisco[5].
       | 
       | Anyway, Ta da. We saved the planet!
       | 
       | [1]https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1645186289933623296
       | 
       | [2] https://insideevs.com/news/436665/24-million-evs-limit-
       | curre...
       | 
       | [3]https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-
       | west/business/2021/04/28/sta...
       | 
       | [4]https://twitter.com/natfriedman/status/1644736970139267072
       | 
       | [5]https://twitter.com/michelletandler/status/16443601831525171..
       | .
        
         | brenns10 wrote:
         | Wow, found the WEF conspiracy theorist :)
        
           | narrator wrote:
           | I like to pretend that the city officials aren't just dumb
           | and there's some sort of overarching method to their madness.
           | Yeah, I did string together a bunch of stuff, but I like the
           | idea of roving crackheads keeping people from leaving their
           | fifteen minute cities and forcing them out of single family
           | housing which is otherwise enormously popular.
           | 
           | All those commercial buildings downtown that have been
           | emptied out will get converted into "safe" residential
           | apartments and then the whole sunset and outlying areas can
           | slowly get turned over to the roving crackheads attended to
           | by legions of government employees with enormous pensions who
           | make sure their open-air drug markets proceed in an orderly
           | fashion while the normies get chased out of their nice single
           | family houses into high security "sustainable" pods.
        
       | ajaygeorge91 wrote:
       | what a time to be alive
        
       | tyingq wrote:
       | I wonder if this scenario will play out on a large scale when
       | driverless semi-trucks start displacing jobs. Where some people
       | might sabotage the system in various ways to make a point. Not
       | just drivers either, as it eventually affects things like
       | roadside gas stations, restaurants, hotels, etc.
       | 
       | Not pushing a luddite agenda, just curious how it might all play
       | out.
        
       | waynenilsen wrote:
       | Standard should be relative to human
        
         | mjburgess wrote:
         | For reference, the human standard is <1 death in every 100
         | million miles driven.
        
           | uoaei wrote:
           | It doesn't seem like you're including classic and obvious
           | externalities. What about causing traffic that prevents vital
           | organs or rescue personnel from reaching those in need in
           | time?
           | 
           | Disruption of economic activity (qua output) can be
           | significant in places where traffic is substantial and
           | solvable yet unsolved.
           | 
           | In my personal experience (I've spent significant time in the
           | neighborhoods around Nvidia's headquarters) approximately 3
           | cars fewer get through any given stoplight if an autonomous
           | vehicle is in that lane. I can imagine how in a place like SF
           | this could cause real, measurable negative impacts.
        
             | mjburgess wrote:
             | I think my comment has been read as being "pro self-
             | driving", whereas I intended it to be anti.
             | 
             | Self-driving cars have already killed many more people than
             | 1/100mill -- it's about 1 in 1 mil iirc.
             | 
             | My comment was to frame the saftey of driving in the
             | relevant units: _amount_ of driving. When scaled by the
             | right factor,  "human driving" is incredibly safe by
             | comparison.
        
       | kristianpaul wrote:
       | it is dispiriting and disempowering," he says. "There's no one
       | there to communicate with at all."
        
       | abeppu wrote:
       | > Jaime Viloria of Equity on Public Transit, a grassroots group
       | of riders in the Tenderloin neighborhood, says companies
       | operating autonomous vehicles should be fined for causing delays.
       | 
       | Insufficient. They'll only count it as part of the cost of doing
       | business.
       | 
       | I think every person director or above at these companies should
       | be eligible to be delayed at random for a time equal to the total
       | human-minutes of delay caused to transit riders and people in
       | private vehicles. If a driverless vehicle blocks a train with 60
       | riders for 15 minutes, those directors and executives should in
       | aggregate spend 15 hours not able to go wherever they want to go,
       | and in a way which they are unable to schedule in advance.
        
         | opportune wrote:
         | They already have a system for this, it's called "driving on
         | the 101 during rush hour"
        
           | abeppu wrote:
           | The whole point of this article is that driverless vehicles
           | are causing delays which are qualitatively different and
           | longer than what human drivers would do. Pointing out that
           | bad traffic already exists elsewhere (presumably caused by
           | human drivers) does not decrease the problems that these
           | companies are creating for the public, and certainly doesn't
           | create accountability.
        
         | tick_tock_tick wrote:
         | We don't have consequences if a normal person blocks a train
         | for 15 minutes why would we add them for automated cars first?
        
           | abeppu wrote:
           | If you stand in front of a muni train for 15 minutes, and
           | refuse to speak to or respond to anyone, I think there's a
           | decent chance you'll experience a negative consequence.
        
             | thereisnospork wrote:
             | Replace 'refuse to speak' with 'scream incoherently' and
             | that sounds like a normal occurrence in SF to me.
        
       | hirundo wrote:
       | These sound like expected growing pains for such complex
       | software, and that there are rapid and effective iterations in
       | progress. I salute SF and its residents for putting up with this
       | and suffering such delays, making a sacrifice that improves it
       | for the rest of us. Their tolerance will eventually save lives as
       | well as improving mobility all over.
       | 
       | I just hope that they will continue to extend that tolerance to
       | still allowing human drivers for a long time after automated ones
       | are more safe. It's almost inevitable that there will be a story
       | like this someday about the hazards of letting humans disable
       | their auto-pilot.
        
         | ncr100 wrote:
         | It is tragic and foul for technology to make things worse in
         | this way, IMO.
         | 
         | The bus- / train-riders have no choice in the matter.
         | 
         | It adds hours onto the driver's day.
         | 
         | It's a shame the mitigation takes as long as the article claims
         | it does.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | Now this surprised me.[1] Cruise AV rear-ended a Muni bus at slow
       | speed. Clear, daylight, dry. That should not happen.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/cruise_032323-pdf/
        
         | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
         | What I'm loving is how they put the "Clear Form" button right
         | next to the "Print" button, so it's easy to press it by
         | mistake. MWAHAHAHAHA.
        
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