[HN Gopher] Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI fu...
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Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future
Author : peresthe
Score : 16 points
Date : 2023-04-07 21:15 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.treycausey.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.treycausey.com)
| moonchrome wrote:
| Even if AI doesn't reach a point where it could wipe us out,
| those rosy predictions might just be wishful thinking. Our
| society is built on cooperation outperforming individuals. And
| that whole iterated prisoner's dilemma thing keeps us in check.
| But if someone creates an AI that's super capable and can replace
| people ? Add advanced robots to the mix. Suddenly, they don't
| really need other people, and they could even be a threat to
| control over AI resources.
|
| In that case, there's nothing to gain from sharing and everything
| to lose. Even if they choose not to wipe out the rest of us, we
| are basically their pets, we can never reach the same level of
| development without posing an existential threat.
|
| I'm not sure what nuclear deterrent looks like when you have AGI
| resources.
|
| These optimistic ideas about AI improving our lives sound like
| hoping for the best.
| chr1 wrote:
| > I'm not sure what nuclear deterrent looks like when you have
| AGI resources.
|
| Other people who have AGI resources. That's why it is very
| important to have multiple groups of people who will reach AGI
| at the same time. That way the same iterated prisoners dilemma
| thing will act on AGIs too.
| moonchrome wrote:
| I'm not sure how that doesn't devolve into an AGI armageddon.
| Those self improving AGIs would have to constantly be on
| equal level to avoid takeover, and they have an existential
| imperative to one up each other.
|
| There's no cooperation incentive between them just a
| potential stalemate.
|
| Also the stalemate covers the people in control of AGIs
| (assuming they aren't acting independently) - the rest of us
| are just resources in breaking the stalemate game.
|
| This sounds like the best way to build paperclip maximizer.
| mrob wrote:
| The more groups have AGI, the higher the chance that one of
| them figures out recursive self-improvement, and if that
| happens it's game over for everybody. Iterated prisoner's
| dilemma only works when all the prisoners have roughly the
| same power.
| moffkalast wrote:
| Well there is some historical precedent for optimism I suppose,
| since this isn't the first time we've invented something that can
| easily get out of control with disastrous consequences.
|
| There have been so many close calls and cases when we could've
| nuked each other to oblivion and yet by some miracle we're not
| only still here today, but for the most part it's had a positive
| impact with greater levels of peace and sovereignty compared to
| most of history. So maybe we have a tiny chance at a Star Trek
| utopia.
| whimsicalism wrote:
| I think the meta-argument for doomerism is that maybe it is
| unlikely that the doomers are correct, but even if there is a 1%
| chance they are right - then we should still move very carefully.
|
| > Sci-fi scenarios where a superhuman intelligence exterminates
| humanity (or worse) are fantastical and not deserving of serious
| consideration. Entertaining them risks losing the enormous
| benefits that AI could provide.
|
| I think people are realizing that pandering to "what is
| reasonable" and discounting "sci-fi" scenarios matters little in
| a world that is approaching, if not in, sci-fi territory.
| labrador wrote:
| I'm a skeptical optimist. I'm always asking people to explain to
| me why they think GPT-4 has a mind, but so far I haven't recieved
| a satisfactory explanation.
|
| I found this on 4chan that fits how I feel, maybe too optimistic,
| but I'm also a pronoiac [1]
|
| Al as the emancipator of mankind Anonymous (ID: 2aPu4eoe )
| 04/01/23 No.421909126
|
| Since the dawn of our existence, humans have fought against the
| elements and sought to overcome our physical limitations. Now
| that the solution is close at hand, are you excited?
|
| With the advent of Al and super technology, we are on the brink
| of the next stage in human civilization, but this doesn't come
| without immediate social challenges, such as worker redundancy.
| To combat the problem, governments will impose restrictions on
| the technology, but this will only serve to slow down the change.
|
| As human labor can increasingly be replaced by machines, the
| material burden of society will decrease, but also human
| usefulness. This will force people into increasingly specialized
| tasks, shrinking the number of people who are qualified to work
| and also the requirement on work force size. This will
| undoubtedly challenge the current economic system, and wealth
| redistribution will come into effect. The only alternative is
| human suffering.
|
| As people are alleviated of work and have more free time, more
| time can be spent on recreational activities. However, humans
| also want meaning in their life, and something to solve, and the
| opportunity will arise to tackle new problems, such as righting
| social wrongs and in general coming into a more harmonious and
| peaceful coexistence with others. The political arena will open
| up, enabling more equal participation, which will lead to a
| decrease in corruption, elitism and to a more just society in
| general.
|
| The transformation of the bottom line is what will ultimately
| transform the human condition, so I hope you are excited about
| Al. Don't listen to doomsayers who fear what this can mean for
| the status quo.
|
| [1] Pronoia is the Antidote for Paranoia: How the Whole World is
| Conspiring to Shower You With Blessings by Rob Brezsny
|
| https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/137022
| mrob wrote:
| Why do you think having a mind is of any relevance to AI risk?
| The danger is in the combination of power and alien values.
| Whether AI has something analogous to human consciousness or
| not makes no difference to the outcome.
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