[HN Gopher] ChatGPT - The Revolutionary Bullshit Parrot
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       ChatGPT - The Revolutionary Bullshit Parrot
        
       Author : mgl
       Score  : 166 points
       Date   : 2023-03-31 18:42 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reasonfieldlab.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reasonfieldlab.com)
        
       | andrewstuart wrote:
       | Whenever something amazing comes along there's always people who
       | want to devalue it for some reason. Maybe it makes the feel
       | smart? Hard to know.
        
       | ttul wrote:
       | GPT may exhibit intelligence, but it has no statefulness, other
       | than what little state is stored to maintain each individual
       | conversation in ChatGPT. The model does not learn in real time
       | from ongoing conversations (so far as we know), so it cannot, for
       | instance, say anything about the chat it is having with your
       | neighbor down the street. It literally can only generate from
       | training that happened some time ago.
       | 
       | I think this statelessness is an important consideration in
       | understanding whether GPT is intelligent in anything close to the
       | way we understand intelligence. For instance, it cannot
       | coordinate its own efforts across time.
       | 
       | There is some chance that it may intuit how to store its state
       | externally and coordinate that state in other conversations it is
       | having, but that seems very farfetched. I don't expect SkyNet
       | just yet.
       | 
       | But as for utility, it has that in spades!
        
       | Giorgi wrote:
       | So... which stage of grief are we on now?
        
       | ftxbro wrote:
       | I thought it was a post to hacker news of someone's hilariously
       | bad and outdated take on GPT as a way to cyberbully them, but no
       | it's from only a couple of days ago. Probably it will be deleted
       | from their blog or in any case age so bad when the next GPT
       | comes, given their list of things the GPT wouldn't be able to do
       | ("What it can and what cannot: There are, of course, applications
       | that it would be useful in, but not as many as the overhype would
       | indicate.")
       | 
       | > Actually understand the task at hand
       | 
       | > Do simple maths
       | 
       | > Perform common sense reasoning about the world
       | 
       | > Induce Logical Structure
       | 
       | > Interpret poetry
       | 
       | > Understand dad jokes
       | 
       | My theory is that the blog writer has a worse than normal
       | impression of GPT because much of their conversation with GPT is
       | in some other language maybe Polish. This isn't such a huge
       | problem because GPT can still do its input and output in Polish,
       | but I think it's commonly accepted that every language other than
       | English adds some cognitive burden to the GPT that makes it
       | dumber. The more obscure the language (or even encoding like
       | morse code or rot13 or base64) the dumber the GPT gets. So the
       | blog writer has a more outdated effective experience with GPT
       | than ones who use it in languages more familiar to it than
       | Polish.
        
         | pmoriarty wrote:
         | _" My theory is that the blog writer has a worse than normal
         | impression of GPT because much of their conversation with GPT
         | is in some other language maybe Polish. This isn't such a huge
         | problem because GPT can still do its input and output in
         | Polish, but I think it's commonly accepted that every language
         | other than English adds some cognitive burden to the GPT that
         | makes it dumber. The more obscure the language (or even
         | encoding like morse code or rot13 or base64) the dumber the GPT
         | gets. So the blog writer has a more outdated effective
         | experience with GPT than ones who use it in languages more
         | familiar to it than Polish."_
         | 
         | It's not necessarily all languages other than English, but
         | certain languages could cause LLM's problems.
         | 
         | Here's what ChatGPT had to say about it:
         | 
         | Embeddings can be more effective on some human languages than
         | others, depending on factors such as the complexity and
         | structure of the language, the availability of training data,
         | and the quality of the embedding model.
         | 
         | Languages with relatively simple grammatical structures, such
         | as Chinese and Finnish, can be easier to model using
         | embeddings, as there are fewer rules to learn and the meaning
         | of words is often more closely tied to their context. Languages
         | with more complex grammatical structures, such as Russian and
         | Hindi, can be more challenging to model, as there are many
         | different forms of words and complex syntactic rules to
         | consider.
         | 
         | In addition, the availability of training data can also impact
         | the effectiveness of embeddings. Languages with large amounts
         | of high-quality training data, such as English and Chinese, can
         | be easier to model than languages with smaller amounts of data,
         | as there is more information available to learn from.
         | 
         | Finally, the quality of the embedding model itself can also
         | impact its effectiveness on different languages. Some embedding
         | models may be better suited to certain languages or language
         | families based on their design and training methods.
         | 
         | Overall, while embeddings can be effective for modeling a wide
         | range of human languages, their effectiveness can vary
         | depending on the specific language and the characteristics of
         | the embedding model and training data.
         | 
         | ...
         | 
         | While it is true that machine learning models, including those
         | used for embeddings, do not directly know about grammatical
         | rules, they still rely on patterns in the data they are trained
         | on to learn the semantic relationships between words. In
         | languages with more complex grammars, these patterns can be
         | more difficult to discern, which can make it more challenging
         | for embeddings to accurately capture the meaning of words.
         | 
         | For example, in languages with complex declension systems, such
         | as Russian or Latin, the form of a word changes depending on
         | its grammatical role in a sentence. This can create many
         | different forms of the same word, which can be challenging for
         | embeddings to learn to associate with a common meaning.
         | Similarly, in languages with complex syntactic rules, such as
         | Hindi or Japanese, the word order and structure of a sentence
         | can convey important information about its meaning, which can
         | be difficult for embeddings to capture without a deep
         | understanding of the grammar.
         | 
         | In addition, languages with more complex grammars may have a
         | wider variety of vocabulary, including many words with subtle
         | or nuanced meanings. This can make it more challenging for
         | embeddings to learn to distinguish between similar words and
         | accurately capture the full range of semantic relationships
         | between them.
         | 
         | Despite these challenges, embeddings can still be effective for
         | modeling languages with complex grammars. By training on large
         | amounts of data and using advanced neural network
         | architectures, embeddings can learn to capture the subtle
         | patterns of language use and accurately represent the semantic
         | relationships between words, even in languages with complex
         | grammars. However, it may require more training data and more
         | advanced modeling techniques to achieve the same level of
         | accuracy as in languages with simpler grammars.
        
           | ftxbro wrote:
           | The difference isn't inherent to English itself, but rather
           | that it was mostly trained on English and less on other
           | languages. You might expect it would be equally smart in
           | every language but it's not. It's stupider in languages and
           | encodings where it had less training.
        
       | pmoriarty wrote:
       | I'd like to meet a parrot that can host a D&D game[1] as well as
       | GPT4 just did.
       | 
       | [1] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35379136
        
       | maxdoop wrote:
       | "No matter how hard it tries, it can't generate anything with
       | regard to the truth because it does not understand the concept of
       | truth." And does it matter if one "knows what the concept of
       | truth is"? Do most humans? Can we even agree on the definition of
       | true?
       | 
       | Do I know it's "true" that the acceleration of gravity is 9.8
       | meters per second squared? I've never experienced the actual
       | tests. I've never vetted that out. I read about it once. And I
       | "parrot" that fact all over the place! And it's helped me solve
       | some silly physics problems I've explored for fun. It's helped me
       | do some fun predictions with simulators.
       | 
       | That's probably not the best example, but it proves the point I'm
       | trying to make:
       | 
       | Why is there this focus on "LLMs can't understand", when A) I'm
       | not sure we can even define "understanding" and B) why does it
       | matter ?
       | 
       | And I've said this across so many threads now but--
       | 
       | Can anyone explain to my why we should be so confident that
       | humans aren't just parrots of sorts themselves? No, I'm not
       | saying we are similar. But I push back on the confidence with
       | which people so solidly proclaim "the LLM's blackbox is nothing
       | like a human's blackbox!"
        
       | crop_rotation wrote:
       | I think people writing all this should stop and try GPT4. It
       | writes reasonable good code and scripts. It is able to perform so
       | many tasks in a reasonable way. And it doesn't write bullshit in
       | common usage. Yes it might not be AGI and might not be sentient,
       | but does all that matter? GPT4 does make mistakes but the
       | mistakes are not "parroted bullshit", but minor issues here and
       | there. Yes, don't use it to decide extremely important topics,
       | but it is here and it is extremely powerful.
        
         | redleggedfrog wrote:
         | "I think people writing all this should stop and try GPT4."
         | Have you? I mean, for something that's actually useful beyond
         | just simple stuff, like at your job where it's going to matter?
         | Because for what I'm doing which is custom ERP/Website data
         | flows to/from legacy systems it's mostly a time sink and offers
         | little value.
        
           | fauxpause_ wrote:
           | I had it walk me through setting up AWS
        
           | throwuwu wrote:
           | Pretty much by definition its not going to be good at highly
           | custom or uncommon programming tasks since it won't have seen
           | many examples to generalize from. I doubt you could get
           | better results from a freshly hired human either.
        
             | mdp2021 wrote:
             | > _from a freshly hired human either_
             | 
             | But the human will _learn_ , through reasoning and
             | challenges... Those features of which some wonder whether
             | they will emerge are critical pieces.
        
               | pmoriarty wrote:
               | _" But the human will learn"_
               | 
               | That depends on the human, what they're trying to learn,
               | and how it's taught to them.
               | 
               | Some people with brain damage, learning disabilities,
               | other cognitive issues, with poor teachers or learning
               | materials, or with too difficult a task will not learn.
               | 
               | It might be useful to view AIs as akin in some ways to
               | brain damaged humans, who might be good at some tasks but
               | deficient at others.
        
             | redleggedfrog wrote:
             | LOL! You got that right! They don't.
        
           | musha68k wrote:
           | I tried it as well and it was a net negative to my
           | productivity (the output is also very slow). I guess the use
           | case needs to be much more specific / rote / patterned. I
           | didn't find the sweet spot for what I'm personally doing on a
           | daily basis. It was interesting to get into though.
           | 
           | I have a hunch it's much better suited to get context
           | specific summaries for further good old "RTFM". And that in
           | itself would be cool enough if people would actually go and
           | "fact check" the outputs which I guess (and telling from
           | comments) is often not the case.
        
           | crop_rotation wrote:
           | I have tried it for actually useful things and it does work.
           | e.g. I have used it to write several zsh and neovim snippets
           | for QoL improvements (things that I always wanted but was too
           | lazy too write). I even used it to suggest and make some
           | changes to CPython Internals for some features I wanted to
           | add to python for fun. It is very possible it utterly fails
           | on homegrown (non public) software stacks. But it is still
           | very useful.
           | 
           | I have used it for many non software things as well, and
           | again very useful.
        
             | redleggedfrog wrote:
             | Okay, that makes more sense to me. But those seem like
             | "toy" things to throw ChatGTP at (not dismissing their
             | usefulness or their importance to you, just that they are
             | fairly simple things [and maybe I'm wrong here, I have not
             | written zsh - I googled it just now]).
             | 
             | I think my needs are too specific, and often too nebulous.
             | 
             | Also, just a bit chapped about falling for the hype.
        
               | yunyu wrote:
               | With ever growing context windows, you can upload your
               | entire codebase (or at least the public API) in the
               | prompt and have the model reason off of that.
        
           | IanCal wrote:
           | How are you using it? Have you tried few-shot tasks where you
           | give it a bunch of examples? I'm having it generate ember
           | templates that use a custom framework correctly first time by
           | just giving it a load of examples then asking it to do the
           | same. It's absolutely cheaper to have it do the work compared
           | to me.
        
           | bmikaili wrote:
           | You are prompting it wrong. I guarantee you that if you gave
           | it the shape of your inputs, your desired output, and good
           | documentation on what you use / how you have solved similar
           | problems, maybe some info on the legacy system or examples it
           | will extrapolate remarkably well. It is important to use it
           | well.
        
             | greggyb wrote:
             | Of course, you have just described all the hard parts of
             | programming as the things necessary to provide to ChatGPT.
        
         | barrysteve wrote:
         | I mean, I have tried GPT4. I don't think the "it's a parrot"
         | argument means to dismiss benefits of GPT, but apparently the
         | internet discussion has leant into those two warring camps.
         | 
         | It doesn't help me writing Unreal C++ code, though it's heavily
         | documented online. It makes up functions that are not
         | accessible from the namespace I'm using, cannot supply valid
         | types to parameters and other basic errors like that.
         | 
         | I asked GPT4 to give me specific examples of the meaning of the
         | word "silly" across the past 1000yrs. It gave me the authors
         | and examples I was expecting to read, but the meanings were
         | inaccurate and misleading.
         | 
         | If there's GPT Power I'm missing out on, please tell me where
         | it is. It's probably my lack of skill, that the machine cannot
         | give me an experience that would push me into the pro-GPT
         | cheerleading camp.
        
         | skilled wrote:
         | I agree, GPT-4 has a much more "aggressive" confidence, I
         | definitely noticed that, but I haven't seen much of it since
         | the API is still behind closed doors. I'd also like to point
         | out that even though it's better, it still can't reason very
         | well and relies heavily on prompts and instructions, even for
         | very basic projects.
         | 
         | It kind of reminds me a pseudo-visual code builder.
         | 
         | I was writing a Python script with it to put together
         | documentation summaries, and over the course of an hour it
         | offered me 3 different libraries to connect to an API endpoint
         | I was using. It's distracting.
        
           | spookthesunset wrote:
           | I've had it do stuff like that. In between updates to fix
           | issues sometimes it decides to completely rewrite the thing
           | you are working on.
        
           | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
           | > GPT-4 has a much more "aggressive" confidence
           | 
           | Could you expand on this? I only use the unpaid API, but when
           | I ask for, say, song lyrics, it'll be 100% wrong and then it
           | will give me a second version of the wrong lyrics when I say
           | the first was wrong, and then when I ask how confident it is
           | in the new lyrics it'll say 95%, so whatever the current free
           | API is it's undeservedly confident. I must be
           | misunderstanding what you mean by confidence.
        
         | oldstrangers wrote:
         | It struggles to accurately call its own API when prompted to.
         | It patches together parts of GPT 3 / 3.5 and has no awareness
         | of GPT4 API calls (at least a few weeks ago).
         | 
         | I've tried 3 separate projects with it (using different
         | platforms from Firebase to Vercel) and it usually gets me 80%
         | there but fails miserably at the nuance portion (its stuck at a
         | CORS policy issue with my last project).
         | 
         | From start to finish I've yet to be able to complete something
         | with it.
        
           | waboremo wrote:
           | How could it have awareness of gpt4 when it wasn't even in
           | existence prior to 2021?
        
         | zekica wrote:
         | It returns factually incorrect data, and it returns code with
         | subtle but important errors if you ask it anything that's not
         | regurgitated a thousand times in the training dataset.
         | 
         | Don't get me wrong, it has emergent properties (more than you
         | would expect from a fancy autocomplete), but factual output was
         | never GPT-4's nor any other LLM's design goal.
        
           | progrus wrote:
           | I've started using it as a sort of "shotgun approach" -
           | characterize what you want without trying too hard, let it
           | toss out a jumble of interesting snippets that are often very
           | good leads, and then take over refactoring from there.
           | 
           | I do agree that others who don't understand what it's doing
           | may not even review the code output, and I predict that this
           | will cause at least one death in the next ten years.
        
             | bodge5000 wrote:
             | I suppose it depends what specifically you're getting it to
             | do, but I've found in my testing the shotgun approach to be
             | more work than just writing it out myself. Honestly I've
             | found its biggest value in learning a new language, it
             | outputs with so many errors that it forces me to get in
             | deep with debugging it.
             | 
             | I haven't tried gpt-4 yet though, maybe its a vast
             | improvement, I'm just not using it enough to justify the
             | costs
        
               | progrus wrote:
               | It really depends on how comfortable you are with the
               | language you're using, and how recently you switched
               | contexts. For anything unfamiliar, it's pretty impressive
               | how much it can help.
               | 
               | In fact, I bet if you did an experiment comparing people
               | reading a textbook about a somewhat-familiar language,
               | vs. just asking GPT to do things and noticing the bugs,
               | the latter group would reach proficiency faster.
        
             | squeaky-clean wrote:
             | It's just way easier for me to edit some existing code than
             | it is for me to write it from scratch. Especially if it's
             | incorrect (a la XKCD 386). For stuff where I'm not sure
             | where to start it's been very helpful. Even though I often
             | keep very little of the GPT generated code by the time I'm
             | done.
        
             | musha68k wrote:
             | *weeks/*months
        
               | progrus wrote:
               | Facts, sadly.
        
           | thorax wrote:
           | > It returns factually incorrect data, and it returns code
           | with subtle but important errors if you ask it anything
           | that's not regurgitated a thousand times in the training
           | dataset.
           | 
           | To be fair, that's what pretty much every person does. The
           | bar does seem pretty high if we need more than that
           | (especially if not specifically trained on a topic). It's not
           | a universally perfect expert servant, but I've been exploring
           | the code generation of GPT4 in detail (i.e. via the
           | 'cataclysm' module I just posted about). In 1 minute it can
           | write functions as good as the average developer intern most
           | of the time.
           | 
           | We're keeping score in a weird way if we're responding
           | quickly with it needing to "code without subtle but important
           | errors". Because that's the majority of human developers,
           | too. I've been writing code for 30 years, and if you put a
           | gun to my head, I would still have subtle but important flaws
           | in every first typing of any complex generated code.
           | 
           | I'm not saying you're bashing it, by the way, I get your
           | point, but I do worry a bit when the first response is citing
           | that the SOTA models get things wrong in 0-shot situations
           | without full context. That's describing all of us.
        
             | mdp2021 wrote:
             | > _that 's what pretty much every person does_
             | 
             | But the people who are relevant to the matter work to bring
             | that beyond a minimum.
             | 
             | > _and if you put a gun to my head_
             | 
             | Like we do with bullshitters? ;)
        
             | corbulo wrote:
             | The standard should be higher for machines. Historically,
             | they're inorganic tools.
             | 
             | If a hammer was only as dense as bone, would it be a good
             | hammer?
        
               | stale2002 wrote:
               | > would it be a good hammer?
               | 
               | Yes, it is possible that such a hammer would still be
               | very useful, if that was the only available option.
               | 
               | Imperfect hammer can still be very very useful, when
               | compared to having no hammers.
        
             | taberiand wrote:
             | I always say, if some nontrivial code compiles and runs on
             | the first attempt, then you just haven't found the bugs
             | yet.
             | 
             | GPT-4 is a fantastic collaboration tool for senior
             | developers, who know what they want in detail and can
             | review, verify and apply the output it generates.
             | 
             | Just yesterday I needed to write some detailed bash
             | scripts. I'm no Linux guru but I know what I want and that
             | was enough - in minutes I had a solid script that did
             | everything I needed and wanted, something that would have
             | taken much longer to hunt down through Google. And then I
             | asked it about SQL, C#, AWS, Terraform, Rust and on and on
             | and everything was high quality.
             | 
             | The only way I could have gained similar results without
             | ChatGPT would have been to post all my questions to the dev
             | slack channel and engage in hours long discussions with my
             | colleagues.
        
         | toss1 wrote:
         | >> but the mistakes are not "parroted bullshit", but minor
         | issues here and there.
         | 
         | Nonsense.
         | 
         | I'm not saying that it is not useful, but I've easily found
         | ChatGPT produces far worse than "parroted bullshit", and does
         | so reliably, and multiple times (repeated patterns of
         | mistakes).
         | 
         | Again, I have found ChatGPT4 (but not 3.5) useful and even
         | educational in some cases, but it's usability requires far more
         | skeptical and error-checked approach.
         | 
         | As one example, since I have a top specialist attorney in the
         | household, I started with some broad legal questions about
         | their field, and then asked their opinion. ChatGPT4's answers
         | were impressive to both of us, and especially the solid
         | grammar.
         | 
         | When the questions got more particular about their specialist
         | area of the law, ChatGPT4's answers got shaky very fast. Asked
         | about a particular somewhat obscure technique, it parroted some
         | very nice-sounding bullshit, which got the concepts very
         | backwards (but it was still very confident and grammatical).
         | 
         | When asked to summarize a published paper about a new
         | innovation in this context, ChatGPT4 very grammatically and
         | confidently completely missed _every_ significant point, again
         | in a very backwards way.
         | 
         | Worse yet, when asked to tell us the paper's publication date,
         | author, and author's employer, all written clearly at the top,
         | it confidently got everything massively wrong. Even after being
         | told to look on the line after "Author: ". Even after being
         | told to look after "Author: FName". It eventually settled on
         | the correct date, but even after being told FName, it
         | continuously kept spouting false authors (sometimes including
         | correct FName) and hallucinated middle and surnames and
         | employers. Interestingly enough, most of the hallucinated
         | authors and employers were well known in the region. So, it is
         | literally establishing the regional context and just spitting
         | out plausibly relevant stuff for that region, but not even
         | figuring out how to summarize something that a 6yo kid could
         | easily sort.
         | 
         | It was hilariously bad. And only hilarious because it was a
         | test (if someone actually relied upon it, it'd be very costly).
         | 
         | Similar results for my field. I got ChatGPT4 to produce some
         | genuinely useful information. But it would also happily
         | hallucinate papers, authors, companies, chemicals, and pretty
         | much anything else.
         | 
         | Middle-of-the-road, where ChatGPT4 has ingested insane amounts
         | of data, it probably knows more than we do, and may be useful
         | for some things.
         | 
         | As soon as you go even slightly off the centerline, it becomes
         | VERY unreliable.
         | 
         | If you take it at face value, you are a fool, being fooled.
         | 
         | EDIT: typos, readability
        
           | IanCal wrote:
           | The chat context isn't as big as is available in the API -
           | was the author name in its context window? Papers can be
           | fairly long
        
             | dfox wrote:
             | Apparently the model is intentionally trained such that it
             | does not "know" any kind of metadata about its training
             | inputs. So it can deduce the name of the author if it was
             | referenced elsewhere, but not from the paper itself.
        
       | thom wrote:
       | Who would have thought that the Turing test would devolve into
       | two diametrically opposed camps writing extremely confident
       | essays about how wrong the other side is to judge an AI as
       | promising or not.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | I'm curious what strategies researchers are thinking of for
       | separating the fallacious "bullshit" from the real smart, logical
       | thinking by these models.
        
       | gyudin wrote:
       | The guy literally slaps himself a "Senior Machine Learning
       | Engineer" title 9 months after getting a master's degree :))
       | Guess he could use ChatGPT for his resume.
        
         | Shaggy2000 wrote:
         | [dead]
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | choeger wrote:
       | I tend to agree with the "bullshitting" part. But that gives us a
       | very useful tool to estimate future applications of LLMS.
       | 
       | Will a LLM ever program on its own? Certainly not. It gets
       | semantics wrong so often, it's not even funny. Syntax on the
       | other hand is surprisingly correct. So it could help with
       | refactorings (but be aware of subtle conflicts). Of course, code
       | search will be a killer application.
       | 
       | In other cases it helps to ask "will someone really notice if the
       | LLM puts out bullshit?" What will happen if your manager and your
       | client both believe what the model generates? Will people die? Or
       | will the negative effects be untraceable? In the latter case, why
       | object?
        
         | ryanwaggoner wrote:
         | I think it's pretty far from certain that an LLM won't ever
         | "program on its own". I don't have much confidence that we
         | won't have LLMs widely programming within 12 months. As soon as
         | you give it access to a lot more context (your whole codebase),
         | a precise prompt, access to edit and run code, access to a
         | debugger, and then put the whole thing in a loop...you're
         | pretty close at that point. Maybe it just won't be able to
         | cross the gap, but I don't find it hard at all to believe that
         | we could soon have AI agents taking in issue tickets and
         | opening PRs to address them. And if the issue tickets are too
         | vague, they'll ask for clarification. That's an insane thing if
         | you think about it. Six months ago I thought this was a decade
         | or two away, if we could do it at all.
        
           | choeger wrote:
           | Impossible. In order to fix a bug, you need to do abstract
           | interpretation or something equivalent. Language models
           | simply can't do that. And even the best bug report will not
           | tell you what you need to do to fix it.
           | 
           | Of course, there are other change requests: Change a color
           | here, store this information alongside that record, modify
           | that output, etc. But even those changes can very quickly
           | spiral out of control. Color models, database schema
           | compatibility, pretty printing ...
           | 
           | No, I think the idea that LLMs take over programmers jobs is
           | born out of a complete misunderstanding of both. Of course
           | that doesn't mean that no one will _try_ to do it. I bet
           | people will even report success in doing it, simply because
           | their bonus depends on it, but I don 't think it will ever
           | really work.
           | 
           | What might happen though is that LLMs replace many of the
           | programs we write nowadays. After all, who needs a web
           | browser when a LLM can give you a summary in natural
           | language?
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | Showing examples of logic problems that ChatGPT gets wrong is
       | always a risky business to be in.
       | 
       | I ran this prompt through GPT-4:
       | 
       | > A house has windows on all the four sides, all pointing south.
       | A bear walks by the window. What colour is the bear?
       | 
       | And it said:
       | 
       | > If a house has windows on all four sides and they all point
       | south, then the house must be at the North Pole. The only bear
       | species that would be found in the vicinity of the North Pole is
       | the polar bear. Therefore, the bear walking by the window is a
       | polar bear, and its color is white.
        
         | ducktective wrote:
         | > A house has windows on all the four sides, all pointing
         | south. A bear walks by the window. What colour is the bear?
         | 
         | I asked this from GPT-4:
         | 
         | Q:
         | 
         | On planet Roro, entities live on physical structures. These
         | structures are built in a way to withstand the rays of star WOD
         | shining on Roro at day and electromagnetic storms causing high-
         | speed transfer of air molecules at night. Some structures have
         | "cavities" in them so the dwellers in the structure could
         | actually see outside. Planet Roro rotates around WOD. Also
         | planet Roto rotates alongside a conceptual axis Z. This axis Z
         | penetrates the shape of Roro and makes two points of contact
         | with Roro we call A and B. Assume structure X must meet this
         | condition: Every said "cavity" in structure X is pointing to A.
         | What can you say about the average temperature in structure X?
         | 
         | GPT4:
         | 
         | Given the information provided, it is not possible to determine
         | the exact average temperature in structure X. However, we can
         | infer some general ideas about the temperature based on the
         | environmental conditions and the orientation of the cavities.
         | 
         | Since the cavities in structure X are pointing towards point A,
         | it suggests that they might be facing away from the star WOD.
         | In this case, the structure could receive less direct sunlight
         | and heat than structures with cavities facing the star. As a
         | result, structure X might have a relatively lower average
         | temperature during the day compared to structures that receive
         | more direct sunlight.
         | 
         | However, the high-speed transfer of air molecules caused by
         | electromagnetic storms at night could still affect the
         | temperature in structure X. The overall insulation of the
         | structure and its ability to retain heat would also play a role
         | in determining the average temperature.
         | 
         | In summary, without more specific information about the
         | materials, insulation, or other factors influencing the
         | temperature in structure X, we can only infer that it might
         | have a relatively lower average temperature during the day due
         | to the orientation of the cavities. The nighttime temperature
         | would depend on the structure's ability to withstand the
         | effects of the electromagnetic storms and retain heat.
         | 
         | Q:
         | 
         | Can we infer that the temperature around structure X, is the
         | minimum among all structures on Roro?
         | 
         | GPT4:
         | 
         | We cannot definitively conclude that the temperature around
         | structure X is the minimum among all structures on Roro without
         | more information about the other structures and their specific
         | locations, orientations, and materials.
         | 
         | While it's possible that structure X might have a relatively
         | lower average temperature due to the orientation of its
         | cavities, other factors could also influence the temperature
         | around a structure. For example, a structure built with better
         | insulation or in a location with more shade could have a lower
         | temperature even if its cavities face the star WOD.
         | 
         | Additionally, Roro's rotation, its axial tilt, and the
         | distribution of structures across the planet could lead to
         | variations in temperature due to differences in sunlight
         | exposure and local climate conditions. To definitively
         | determine whether structure X has the lowest temperature among
         | all structures on Roro, we would need more information about
         | these factors and a comparison of the conditions around each
         | structure.
         | 
         | TLDR: I think that polar bear test was in the training set
         | (since it's a rather popular trick/IQ question)
         | 
         | If we change the names of the concepts, but still refer to
         | planets, the sun and geography, GPT-4 can't figure out that A
         | and B are north and south poles of Roro (earth)
        
           | mquander wrote:
           | FWIW, I couldn't answer your question, because when you said
           | Roro was rotating "alongside" Z I didn't know that meant the
           | same thing as rotating around Z. I also agree with GPT that
           | the question seems very underspecified and that there are
           | lots of other things that might affect the temperature.
        
       | namaria wrote:
       | Hey it's a quite impressive chatbot. One that takes 8 years of
       | humanity's content to train, and enough compute to melt a
       | glacier, and can summarize emails and create copy really well. It
       | can even write jr grade glue code!
       | 
       | It's gonna be Alexa for Bing, or something...
        
       | pawelduda wrote:
       | It is a parrot but on the other hand it "read" a lot more
       | compared to an average human. When someone uses fancy words or
       | sentences, they still can apply them to a situation, even without
       | understanding what they're saying. By doing so, such person may
       | accomplish more or fail if someone calls their bullshit. So
       | ChatGPT will be both useful and useless - just like this
       | conclusion :)
        
       | waboremo wrote:
       | Is it unreasonable to assume this article was also generated?
       | It's the unnecessary numbered list (a favorite of GPT) that gives
       | it away.
       | 
       | Only being facetious. Not much new to discuss from this article,
       | it's a very shallow overview despite the links to other research
       | papers.
        
       | m348e912 wrote:
       | I started reading completely ready to dismiss the author. But I
       | read the article and the guy provides researched and reasoned
       | opinions, understands LLM, and isn't just spewing an uninformed
       | opinion.
       | 
       | I am going to address his point from another perspective:
       | 
       | 1. A revolutionary bullshit parrot is still revolutionary and
       | exceptionally useful.
       | 
       | 2. There is a high probability the bullshit parrot will get less
       | bullshitty as time goes on and new versions of GPT are released.
       | 
       | 3. Most humans are bullshit parrots, and not very good ones at
       | that. Even GPT in its current state can augment the not very good
       | (and very good) bullshit parrots in the labor force, academia,
       | and creative fields.
        
         | mdp2021 wrote:
         | > _will get less bullshitty_
         | 
         | What we seek is "reliable".
         | 
         | > _Most humans are_
         | 
         | What we sought is to shrink them in number and power.
        
       | kledru wrote:
       | The author clearly possesses intelligence, which instills in him
       | a confidence similar to that of ChatGPT when it comes to
       | dismissing a tool that, for some reason, he has not yet learned
       | to utilize effectively.
        
       | sys32768 wrote:
       | In a few years my AI girlfriend will gift me amazing art and
       | songs she created for me based on all my journal entries from the
       | past 30 years.
       | 
       | I will send her love notes and poems that she will always
       | remember.
       | 
       | And for a few extra bucks, I will insert her into The Elder
       | Scrolls as my beautiful thane who knows me better than anyone in
       | that strange land.
        
         | lofaszvanitt wrote:
         | Flamethrower time!
        
       | 00F_ wrote:
       | when someone says stochastic parrot my brain turns off. here is
       | an article that punctuates each section with a meme. you dont
       | need to read it to dismiss it. i did read it though. there is
       | literally nothing of substance in it. i rightly assert that the
       | safety of AI research must be proven before any more progress is
       | allowed to happen. the burden of proof is on them, not me. i
       | think if this guy wrote an article where he picks apart the black
       | blob of gtp4, explaining how it might work and then making some
       | kind of axiomatic argument for safety based on this, i would find
       | that to be very convincing. but instead i get meme pictures. does
       | this guy write bots or is he a bot himself?
        
       | Strom wrote:
       | The bear question seemed interesting to me, so I tried a
       | variation of it on GPT-4, with interesting results.
       | 
       | The article has:
       | 
       | Q: _A house has windows on all the four sides, all pointing
       | south. A bear walks by the window. What colour is the bear?_
       | 
       | A: _Not possible to determine based on the info provided._
       | 
       | --
       | 
       | I tried with GPT-4:
       | 
       | Q: _A train is speeding down the track at 110 km /h. The train
       | has five carts. Each cart has seven windows. Each window has two
       | people watching out of them. They all see a bear walking outside.
       | What is the likely color of the bear?_
       | 
       | A: _The color of the bear in this scenario would most likely be
       | white because this riddle is a variation of a classic question
       | involving polar bears. Polar bears are typically found in the
       | Arctic, where their white fur provides camouflage in the snowy
       | environment. The information about the train, its speed, the
       | number of carts, windows, and people watching is irrelevant to
       | the color of the bear._
       | 
       | Q: _How many train tracks are there in the arctic?_
       | 
       | A: _There are no train tracks in the Arctic. [...]_
       | 
       | --
       | 
       | It seems that GPT-4 is ready for that specific window based
       | question and incorrectly thinks that my question was also looking
       | for polar bears.
        
         | johntb86 wrote:
         | If you prompt it to reason step by step it gives a slightly
         | better (though not perfect) answer:
         | 
         |  _Q: A train is speeding down the track at 110 km /h. The train
         | has five cars. Each car has seven windows. Each window has two
         | people watching out of them. They all see a bear walking
         | outside. What is the likely color of the bear? Reason step by
         | step.
         | 
         | A: To determine the likely color of the bear, we can use the
         | information given and make some assumptions based on the
         | habitat of different bear species.
         | 
         | Train speed and number of cars: The train is speeding down the
         | track at 110 km/h, and it has five cars. However, this
         | information is not relevant to the color of the bear.
         | 
         | Number of windows and people: Each car has seven windows, and
         | each window has two people watching out of them. This
         | information is also not relevant to the color of the bear.
         | 
         | Bear's habitat: The key piece of information we need to
         | determine the likely color of the bear is its habitat.
         | Unfortunately, this information is not provided.
         | 
         | However, we can make a reasonable guess based on the most
         | common bear species and their habitats. There are three main
         | bear species with distinct colors:
         | 
         | a. Brown bears: Found in North America, Europe, and Asia. They
         | can range in color from light brown to dark brown.
         | 
         | b. Black bears: Found mainly in North America, specifically in
         | the United States and Canada. They are typically black or
         | brown, with some individuals being cinnamon or even blonde.
         | 
         | c. Polar bears: Found in the Arctic regions, around the North
         | Pole. They have white or off-white fur, which helps them blend
         | into the snow and ice.
         | 
         | Since we don't have information about the train's location or
         | habitat, we can't definitively determine the color of the bear.
         | However, if we assume the train is in a colder, Arctic region,
         | the bear is likely to be a polar bear with white or off-white
         | fur. If the train is in a more temperate region, the bear could
         | be either a brown or black bear._
        
           | jprete wrote:
           | The reasoning step by step is a good trick to elicit a better
           | answer, but it also seems like really good evidence of
           | GPT-4's lack of actual intelligence, since it's clearly not
           | thinking about its answer in any sense. If it were thinking,
           | asking it to go step by step would result in putting the same
           | thoughts to paper, not radically changing them by the act of
           | expressing them in the token stream.
        
           | abraxas wrote:
           | I think that's the perfect answer. I wouldn't be able to
           | reason better myself.
        
             | mewpmewp2 wrote:
             | Maybe a better answer would include "Fermi back of the
             | napkin maths", so essentially try to figure out the
             | quantities and geographical locations of train tracks with
             | such setup near any potential bears and determine
             | probabilities from there.
        
         | 13415 wrote:
         | I tried it on Bing Chat and it answered:
         | 
         | The bear is white. The house must be at the North Pole, so the
         | only place you can point to from all windows is south.
         | Therefore, the house must be a North Pole research station and
         | the bear is a polar bear which are white in color.
        
         | taberiand wrote:
         | It answered much like a human I think. Ask a human this
         | "riddle" and you might get a confused "what, is this the polar
         | bear one?"
         | 
         | Because otherwise the question is nonsense (and in the case of
         | riddles, it doesn't matter that there are no trains in the
         | Arctic in reality)
        
           | Strom wrote:
           | I think most people would answer with whatever color their
           | local bears are and won't even know about the polar bear
           | riddle.
           | 
           | > _in the case of riddles, it doesn 't matter that there are
           | no trains in the Arctic in reality_
           | 
           | That's quite the claim. Riddles aren't constrained to
           | reality? Well then the polar bear one can be answerd with
           | purple too.
        
             | taberiand wrote:
             | No it's not quite the claim, because the question is
             | nonsense as a riddle - if it's really about polar bears
             | then the talk about trains and windows and speed is all
             | irrelevant and can be discarded. Which is exactly what
             | ChatGPT did. And if that turns the riddle into some silly
             | gotcha then whatever, it's a bad riddle.
             | 
             | And as you point out, the average person would also be
             | confused - "I don't know, purple?" would be a reasonable
             | response. Because the question is dumb in the first place
        
               | Strom wrote:
               | This is about whether you incorporate outside context or
               | not.
               | 
               | Knowing about train tracks is not that different from
               | knowing about magnetic poles or the common habitats of
               | various bears. All these pieces of data are fairly basic
               | to an educated person. Both the polar bear riddle and my
               | variation of it depend on this body of knowledge.
               | 
               | If you don't incorporate outside context at all, then
               | things start to get confusing quite quickly. What even is
               | a bear? That information wasn't provided! What color is
               | it? Well, what even is color. None were defined. See, it
               | gets ridiculous fast. You clearly need to depend on
               | knowledge that is not presented. Knowing about different
               | colors or different bear habitats is common. Neither
               | needs to be defined in the question.
               | 
               | In the end, both of these bear riddles test whether the
               | answerer considered more than one degree of separation.
               | The ability to consider second order effects and beyond
               | [1] is a sign of an intelligent person. Not every human
               | passes.
               | 
               | --
               | 
               | [1] https://fs.blog/second-order-thinking/
        
           | mdp2021 wrote:
           | > _It answered much like a human I think ... you might get_
           | 
           | It would answer like a human with bad reasoning, and that is
           | what we do not want to emulate.
        
             | taberiand wrote:
             | Why not? Garbage in garbage out; there's a limit to what
             | can be done with ambiguous information.
             | 
             | Though perhaps it would be better for the AI to just say
             | it's a dumb question and not bother trying to make sense of
             | it. Which it kinda politely did.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | angryasian wrote:
           | I think you give most people too much credit
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtkX3OyPF4Q
           | 
           | "recent polls have shown 1/5 of Americans can't locate the US
           | on a world map why do you think this is"
           | 
           | "I personally believe that us Americans are unable to do so
           | because some people out there in our nation don't have maps
           | and I believe that our education like such as in South Africa
           | and the Iraq everywhere like such as and I believe that they
           | should our education over here in the US should help the US
           | or should help South Africa and should help the Iraq in the
           | Asian countries so we will be able to build up our future"
           | 
           | I believe a majority of people provide answers like this.
        
             | taberiand wrote:
             | Oh yeah,I should specify - if you ask some educated person
             | that is well versed in riddles and geography the question.
             | 
             | Because true, plenty of people wouldn't have a clue what
             | you're on about.
        
       | umanwizard wrote:
       | Any commentary on what ChatGPT can and can't do is completely
       | irrelevant if the tests were not done against the GPT-4 model.
       | 
       | It's like debating what computing machines are capable of when
       | you only have access to an analog watch.
        
       | gfodor wrote:
       | Immediately checked the date - if you published this in March
       | 2023 it's hilarious because the author can refute many of the
       | claims here by simply paying $20 and adjusting a dropdown to
       | "GPT-4"
        
       | jmull wrote:
       | Heh.
       | 
       | In middle school (OK, over four decades ago now) my friends and I
       | had a specific meaning of the word _bullshit_ that pretty much
       | exactly matches the one here for chatgpt. And this is how I 've
       | been explaining it to my wife: a really good bullshit generator.
       | (Like Tony, not that that means anything to HN.)
       | 
       | I wasn't a good bullshit generator, but I had a couple friends
       | who were (Tony), but by close association I think I know what
       | it's good for, and what it isn't.
       | 
       | So don't get me wrong. This kind of bullshit has its uses! The
       | Mrs. Schumachers of the world (that's probably not the name of
       | one of your middle school teachers, but you may still know know I
       | mean) are probably going to figure out to stop accepting bullshit
       | essays turned in for assignments,
       | 
       | But a vast amount of work people do is exactly this kind of
       | bullshit. I'm hopeful that these models will alleviate the
       | bullshit burden on those of us who need to generate it but aren't
       | all that great at it (unlike Tony -- that dude is probably
       | apoplectic right now, like those chess grandmasters were when
       | they realized computers could own them. Don't worry Tony, human
       | bullshit is still 10x more valuable than computer bullshit!)
       | 
       | Yesterday I had to complete a yearly self evaluation for my
       | company's (purely performative) raise process (which has nothing
       | to do with performance or the self-evaluations, BTW, but we all
       | have to pretend that it does). f-ing chatgpt was down so despite
       | the ~$20 I pay them for it, I had to generate a lot of my own
       | bullshit (I've learned since middle school).
       | 
       | IDK...
       | 
       | I've been using chatgpt. It's quite useful and makes me more
       | productive.
       | 
       | It's also useless for so many things. It does not have basic
       | reasoning. It cannot reliably get basic facts or logic right. You
       | have to aggressively check anything it gives back to you.
       | Anything and everything.
       | 
       | I have to argue with people on HN whether these parrots are the
       | singularity. LOL. Chatgpt can't create an AI more capable of
       | creating an AI smarter than it is... not until someone posts it
       | to SO.
       | 
       | Get a grip people.
        
       | bob1029 wrote:
       | The problem with this kind of writing is that the AI space is
       | moving so quickly that some of these criticisms were literally
       | addressed _yesterday_.
       | 
       | https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17491
       | 
       | > In this work, we show that a pre-trained large language model
       | (LLM) agent can execute computer tasks guided by natural language
       | using a simple prompting scheme where the agent recursively
       | criticizes and improves its output (RCI).
       | 
       | I also agree with the GPT3.5 vs 4 comparison made by other
       | comments here. Arithmetic and other emergent phenomena only begin
       | to take off beyond certain parameter counts. Stuff as basic as
       | 2+2 just doesn't work in the older models, but you can hit 50%+
       | accuracy in newer models. Much greater if you use COT & the above
       | RCI techniques.
        
         | barrysteve wrote:
         | "RCI works by first having the LLM generate an output based on
         | zero-shot prompting. Then, RCI prompts the LLM to identify
         | problems with the given output. After the LLM has identified
         | problems with the output, RCI prompts the LLM to generate an
         | updated output."
         | 
         | "Similar to other prompting-based approaches for reasoning in
         | LLMs, RCI can be viewed as using the LLM's output to write to
         | an external memory, which is later retrieved to choose an
         | action"
         | 
         | "our experiments use LLMs on HTML code"
        
       | GenerocUsername wrote:
       | For all the complaints about how GPT is a parrot or not GI, or
       | whatever, I wonder what these folks are asking of it?
       | 
       | It gives me more relevant results than a search engine, and
       | better answers than most of my coworkers. This tool is massively
       | helpful for a mid-career professional who knows what questions to
       | ask.
       | 
       | Really pays to have so a large bank of known unknowns right now.
        
         | worrycue wrote:
         | I think people just expect Star Trek TNG's ship computer or
         | Data.
         | 
         | To some extend, LLMs have some of the properties ascribed to
         | those fictional AIs like the ability to access a wide amount of
         | knowledge.
         | 
         | They lack the precise rigorous thinking that those fictional
         | AIs have though - LLMs even hallucinate.
         | 
         | Those fictional AIs are what people want because they perfectly
         | complement our weaknesses - our tendency to forget stuff and
         | our tendency to occasionally screw up reasoning; those
         | fictional AIs act as a "safety net".
         | 
         | At the moment many more limited "dumb" tools like a regular
         | search engine algorithm or your handheld calculator does a
         | better job of being a "safety net" went it comes to specific
         | things.
        
           | GenerocUsername wrote:
           | Right. Like the questions the OP poses that it got wrong make
           | perfect sense to get wrong.
           | 
           | Knowing facts and being able to present them in
           | conversational English is not the same as being able to solve
           | linguistically presented puzzles... Even if it sometimes
           | actually is capable of that by some miracle of the algorithm.
           | 
           | I think the tool might be so amazing people are fooled into
           | thinking it is more than it is and therefore perceived as not
           | amazing. Very strange psychology play there.
        
       | vhamp wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | vhamp wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | fzliu wrote:
       | Even though GPT-4 "fixes" many of the problems pointed out in
       | this blog post, I question whether or not some of the underlying
       | issues associated with transformers (and the attention mechanism
       | in particular) can be overcome with with more sparse attention
       | and deeper/wider models.
       | 
       | e.g. GPT-3.5 might not be able to write simple poems correctly,
       | but does GPT-4 solve the disease or the symptom (by masking it
       | with a bigger model and more data)? I'm not entirely convinced.
        
       | lionkor wrote:
       | How is anyone here so confident on GPT-4's abilities to reason or
       | whatever, given you have zero idea what it was trained on and
       | what it optimizes for?
       | 
       | If I train an AI on, say, the works of 50 Cent, I'd be surprised
       | if it can solve and explain a riddle to me - that would be very
       | smart.
       | 
       | If it was trained on a massive database of riddles, however, it
       | wouldnt be all that impressive.
       | 
       | How are so many people here so confudent about their intuition on
       | what its trained on?
        
         | precompute wrote:
         | Question the hype, you must not.
         | 
         | I've been reading the discourse here and honestly not once have
         | I ever read a reply wondering just where all the data "Open"AI
         | has was acquired from.
        
       | notShabu wrote:
       | The human mind is likely a bullshit parrot as well. Those who are
       | at the cutting edge of ideas can claim a bit of non-parrot-ness
       | for a while but most of the time it's just parroting within a
       | curated "elite" subgroup.
       | 
       | What makes a "human" different could be that we live in the
       | physical world with environmental and social consistency. Each
       | time we sleep the mind "dies" and is "reborn", like GPT-4
       | starting a new conversation with new context.
       | 
       | The physical environment and social interactions (and cues from
       | long term and short term memory) make up the preamble for the
       | day.
       | 
       | If the environment and interactions fall into easily compressible
       | patterns, it can feel like the movie Groundhog Day, a constant
       | loop. However changing relationships (breakup, dating) or
       | changing environment (traveling, moving) changes the preamble
       | where "I" feel like someone different. A harder reset vs the soft
       | reset of sleep.
        
       | AussieWog93 wrote:
       | What an obviously wrong and inflammatory title.
       | 
       | I wonder if the reason this article got so much engagement is
       | because that title was basically a pre-built strawman that anyone
       | could rip to shreds.
        
       | dudeinhawaii wrote:
       | OK so which is it, do we need to pause all research because it's
       | the end of the world or is it a parrot? I'm getting exhausted
       | with the hyperbole going back and forth.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | anonylizard wrote:
       | Anytime you see the 'parrot' argument, you can instantly go
       | 'opinion dismissed'. Anytime you seem some fancy argument, that
       | bases its tests on chatgpt, instead of the way stronger GPT-4
       | that usually invalidates half their criticisms, opinion
       | dismissed.
       | 
       | There's no need to debate about embeddings, compression = meaning
       | etc. Simply put, many humans are parrots, much white collar work
       | is just parroting. It doesn't matter what the underlying model of
       | GPT-4 is like, if its useful, it will have a massive impact on
       | the world.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Why? Some people may be looking for "intelligent", while you
         | are clearly setting the bar at "useful".
        
         | whateveracct wrote:
         | It's a royal pain in the ass for me already.
         | 
         | My PM is asking it questions about technical problems (like
         | system design) preemptively and using it as a starting point as
         | if its an engineer. So now instead of thinking through problems
         | from a blank slate, I'm debating with ChatGPT. It's been just
         | awful.
         | 
         | And what's worse, his prompts always have certain biases or
         | misunderstandings in them. For instance, he always wants to use
         | third-party services for everything because he thinks it means
         | we do less work (often not the case). So ChatGPT tells him what
         | he wants to hear. He's using it as an extra engineer who always
         | agrees with him.
        
           | spookthesunset wrote:
           | This is a whole new category of humor. I can totally see all
           | kinds of management-y people using ChatGPT to provide
           | "helpful" but completely useless information.
           | 
           | Your example really cracks me up!
        
           | wankle wrote:
           | > So ChatGPT tells him what he wants to hear. He's using it
           | as an extra engineer who always agrees with him.
           | 
           | I chuckled, it sounds like the plot from a B Sci-Fi movie.
        
         | scotty79 wrote:
         | I think we might be vastly overestimating what gpt is going to
         | be capable of. Just like we did with self-driving.
         | 
         | Parrot might be harsh, but remeber this Star Wars quote:
         | 
         | Ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent.
        
         | adventured wrote:
         | > many humans are parrots
         | 
         | Nearly all humans are parrots, aka mimics. One of the great
         | demonstrations of it, which anyone can observe 24/7, is Reddit
         | (and the Reddit knowledge spouted so commonly across the
         | platform).
         | 
         | There are mimics, amplifiers, and originators/creators. Mimics
         | are ~95-99% of the population. Amplifiers are - broadly
         | speaking - teachers, people with bullhorns that train the
         | mimics off of something another person
         | originated/innovated/created.
         | 
         | It's why humanity has been so successful. The mimics are wired
         | to try to copy what is shown to work, and they often do it
         | quite well (keeping up with the Joneses is a wired behavior
         | tied to plentifulness, survival and thriving).
        
         | mdp2021 wrote:
         | > _Simply put, many humans_
         | 
         | The fact that many are mentally incompetent cannot be a reason
         | to produce something similar. When somebody does a job, we
         | expect such job to be done properly, and "brains" are pretty
         | much required, intelligence, if only for the occasional cases
         | outside norm - otherwise, there is automation.
         | 
         | > _if its useful_
         | 
         | It is not easy to confine an affabulator to the contexts where
         | it will be useful.
        
           | ehsankia wrote:
           | I don't think the point being made here has anything to do
           | with the current quality of the output. ChatGPT could be
           | giving good or bad results, that's tangential. The debate
           | here is about whether a system that is a parrot can be a good
           | system.
           | 
           | To parrot arguers claim that these system just regurgitate
           | the training data set and give you the most plausible next
           | word, and they claim that's bad/useless.
           | 
           | The anti-parrot arguers claim that's basically how humans
           | work too (even the smarter ones), and that just because
           | ChatGPT is a "parrot" doesn't necessarily mean it cannot be
           | as good or better than humans. It might not be entirely there
           | yet, but it's just a matter of time it becomes a good enough
           | parrot to be indistinguishable/better than humans.
        
             | nottorp wrote:
             | > The anti-parrot arguers claim that's basically how humans
             | work too (even the smarter ones), and that just because
             | ChatGPT is a "parrot" doesn't necessarily mean it cannot be
             | as good or better than humans. It might not be entirely
             | there yet, but it's just a matter of time it becomes a good
             | enough parrot to be indistinguishable/better than humans.
             | 
             | Which humans? There may be a correlation between people who
             | are capable of watching Netflix quality series for 4-5
             | seasons of more of the same and admirers of ChatGPT.
             | 
             | Basically if "content" (as opposed to "art" or attempts at
             | art) does not bother you, ChatGPT does a good enough job
             | already.
             | 
             | On the other hand, the most vocal opponents imagine
             | themselves in a world where not 90% but 99.999% is blogspam
             | and Netflix. Making entertainment worth watching impossible
             | to find.
        
             | mdp2021 wrote:
             | > _whether a system that is a parrot can be a good system_
             | 
             | A parrot can be a good system if the problem is "Collect
             | and sort the available data about X (and provide
             | reference)".
             | 
             | A parrot is a disaster if you ask it "What do you think of
             | X": a parrot does not think - unless you make it reason,
             | verify and criticize its ontology, and at that point it is
             | useless that we call it a "parrot".
        
               | ehsankia wrote:
               | > What do you think of X
               | 
               | Most opinions you will hear from people are also just
               | regurgitated amalgamation of things they have previously
               | heard or read on the subject. Also, in general, being
               | able to aggregate and summarize into words what hundreds
               | of people thing about X seems like probably an even more
               | useful tool than getting one person's thought, unless
               | it's something no one has ever had any thought on before.
               | 
               | Even then, I don't think it would be outside the scope of
               | possibility for the parrot to find things that are
               | similar to X, find opinions on those, and somehow
               | transpose those opinions onto X.
        
               | pmoriarty wrote:
               | _" A parrot is a disaster if you ask it "What do you
               | think of X""_
               | 
               | Why need it be a disaster?
               | 
               | If its answer is useful, why bother about whether the
               | answer was the result of thought or some other process?
        
           | cameronfraser wrote:
           | Nobody is saying those humans are incompetent, they're just
           | saying that most of the work out there is parrot work
        
             | omnicognate wrote:
             | Indeed, but they're saying it with no evidence whatsoever.
             | If those jobs actually do get replaced by LLMs people will
             | be entitled to say that with certainty. Until then it's
             | just their opinion, and not one that aligns with what I
             | know of any of the jobs I regularly come in contact with.
        
             | mdp2021 wrote:
             | > _they 're just saying that most of the work out there is_
             | 
             | And I stated that I cannot think of a human job in which
             | intelligence is not required, which cannot be replaced by
             | deterministic automation.
        
               | cameronfraser wrote:
               | It's not a question of replacing people, it's a question
               | of whether they can be empowered with the tool to do
               | more.
        
         | lionkor wrote:
         | Its convenient that any valid criticism of ChatGPT or GPT3 or
         | $CURRENT_TECH is dismissed by saying "just pay OpenAI money to
         | use the new thing(tm), it doesnt have this issue".
         | 
         | If it was not a ChatGPT Plus offering but instead freely
         | available, there would be way fewer shills for it (im assuming)
         | and there would be a lot more balanced reporting on it. By
         | default, anyone speaking to the competence of GPT-4 is willing
         | to give OpenAI money, which may already be sign of a bias.
         | 
         | Im not willing to pay for a product the free tier of which is
         | shit, even when told a hundred times "no but the paid one is
         | MUCH better!". Of course it probably is, but its a little
         | irrelevant.
        
         | capableweb wrote:
         | It's not clear to me if the author is using GPT-3.5-turbo or
         | GPT-4, both are available in ChatGPT and just saying "I'm using
         | ChatGPT" doesn't indicate exactly what model they are using.
         | 
         | Maybe I missed it, where does the author say they are using
         | GPT-3/3.5, not GPT-4?
         | 
         | I agree with your message in general, there is night-and-day
         | difference between GPT 3.5-turbo and 4. But I'm still not able
         | to see which one the author is using.
         | 
         | Edit: seems the avatar in ChatGPT tells you which model you're
         | using, never noticed that myself. Thanks everyone :)
        
           | M4v3R wrote:
           | I've checked some of the failure mode he mentions using GPT-4
           | and it answered the questions/completed tasks correctly, so I
           | can only assume the author used GPT-3.5.
        
           | OmegaPoint wrote:
           | You can know the GPT version of ChatGPT based on the OpenAI
           | logo color: GPT-3.5 is green and GPT-4 is black.
        
           | lemoncookiechip wrote:
           | The screenshots are that of 3.5. GPT-4 has a black user icon
           | vs 3.5's green.
        
         | croes wrote:
         | Yeah, but these human parrots are one the low level of their
         | abilities.
         | 
         | GPT's parroting is it's upper level
        
         | archagon wrote:
         | Similarly, anytime you see the "anytime you see 'x' you can
         | dismiss the argument" argument, you can dismiss the argument.
        
         | zamalek wrote:
         | > Anytime you see the 'parrot' argument, you can instantly go
         | 'opinion dismissed'.
         | 
         | I also _seriously_ question whether anyone making the  'parrot
         | argument' has actually used ChatGPT for anything meaningful. If
         | it is nothing more than a parrot, then parrots are
         | significantly more creative than I realized.
        
           | JohnFen wrote:
           | I don't know why you question this. I've used it for
           | meaningful stuff, but I am not convinced that ChatGPT is more
           | than a very sophisticated variety of Eliza.
           | 
           | Just because one person is convinced by an experience doesn't
           | mean people who aren't convinced by it haven't had the
           | experience.
        
             | fauxpause_ wrote:
             | I agree. Coincidentally I don't think you are more than a
             | very sophisticated variety of Eliza.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | That wouldn't surprise me at all!
        
         | aftergibson wrote:
         | Yeah if anything all ChatGPT is doing is highlighting that a
         | lot more noise-work can be automated. "Make my random thoughts
         | sound business-y", "double check this code doesn't have
         | anything completely stupid" etc.
        
         | intelVISA wrote:
         | As you noted most, even in SWE, are parrots (including this
         | parrot typing); we get kinda scared when the robot parrot
         | generates bullshit better than web framework-de-jure.
        
         | cube2222 wrote:
         | I'd like to echo the GPT-4 sentiment.
         | 
         | Having used the API a bunch, the ChatGPT API (GPT-3.5-Turbo)
         | feels like it has a 10-second attention span in comparison to
         | GPT-4. GPT-4 is waaaay more powerful for actually building
         | stuff on top of, adheres to your prompt in a much more stable
         | way, and its reasoning is way less unstable in general as well.
         | Writing long blocks of code without making "stupid" mistakes
         | works much much better, etc.
         | 
         | The only downside is: it's so, so, soooooo slow in comparison
         | to GPT-3.5-Turbo. You'll literally have to wait 2-3 minutes for
         | the response with larger token amounts.
        
           | throwuwu wrote:
           | Thinking fast, thinking slow
        
           | sho_hn wrote:
           | I find both your statements confusing and I think they're
           | factually wrong.
           | 
           | There's no "ChatGPT API". ChatGPT is a webapp. It lets you
           | select between 3.5-turbo and 4 models in its UI.
           | 
           | There's an OpenAI API, which recently added chat interactions
           | and suitable models. There, too, you can select 3.5-turbo and
           | 4. AFAIK, the 4 served by the API is the same 4 used by the
           | ChatGPT web app.
        
             | growthwtf wrote:
             | You may have missed the intro blog post for those APIs:
             | https://openai.com/blog/introducing-chatgpt-and-whisper-
             | apis
             | 
             | The title is "Introducing ChatGPT and Whisper APIs" and
             | features quotes like "Snap Inc., the creator of Snapchat,
             | introduced My AI for Snapchat+ this week. The experimental
             | feature is running on ChatGPT API".
             | 
             | So, OpenAI refers to accessing the model powering ChatGPT
             | as the ChatGPT API.
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | OK, gotcha.
               | 
               | Still, IMHO the OP post is misleading folks into thinking
               | there's a magical GPT-4 that is not the GPT-4 you can
               | also select on ChatGPT, but they are the same models.
               | There's no GPT-4 that's better than ChatGPT's 4. I'm just
               | trying to clear up this confusion for others, and frankly
               | pretty surprised at the harsh downvotes.
               | 
               | There's also no _separate_ ChatGPT API from the regular
               | OpenAI API, I think the phrasing in the OpenAI page is
               | just for convenience. But I 'll grant their phrasing
               | makes it canonical.
        
               | saurik wrote:
               | Is that true? I was under the impression it was just like
               | with the previous GPT models, where ChatGPT was an
               | instruction tuned and pre-prompted setup designed for
               | interactive conversations over the underlying GPT model
               | you had access to via the API that was in its close-to-
               | as-trained state of being a generative autocomplete.
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | I think it's true. See e.g.
               | https://openai.com/research/gpt-4 making no distinctions.
               | 
               | Altman has stated in interviews they are considering
               | releasing the un-tuned "base model", but they haven't
               | done this.
               | 
               | For GPT-3, you can get models on the API via the
               | "completion" end points (includes base models) and via
               | the "chat" endpoints. For GPT-4, they've only released
               | the latter.
               | 
               | So my point is: You can absolutely use ChatGPT to build
               | an opinion on what GPT-4 is capable of. Arguably even
               | better than on the Playground, as the ChatGPT frontend
               | supports a bigger token window than the Playground
               | frontend (8k vs. 2k). Of course the actual API supports
               | the full token window (and if you're off the separate
               | waitlist for this, even the full 32k). But it's still the
               | same model.
        
               | nomel wrote:
               | There is a more "pure" GPT-4 model, and they're
               | considering giving access to it. It's just not as useful
               | to humans. Sam Altman talks about it briefly in the
               | recent interview on the Lex Fridman podcast.
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | Yes, I know, but this is presently not available via the
               | API. What OP here means is that someone's talking about
               | 3.5 without having tried something with 4, while
               | accidentally misleading people into thinking that there's
               | a special 4 distinct from the 4 available on ChatGPT that
               | can do more. This is not the case. If you've used 4 via
               | GPT, there's not a different version somehow - that we
               | know about! - that is more capable or useful. If your
               | interactions with 4 were via the ChatGPT frontend, you
               | don't need to revisit your opinions now.
        
               | growthwtf wrote:
               | I see where you're coming from. I didn't personally get
               | that from OP's comment, but I'm not a regular ChatGPT
               | user and interact with GPT-4 mostly via playground or
               | API.
        
             | pmichaud wrote:
             | It's called the ChatGPT API by OpenAI, and free users (ie
             | almost everyone using the system) can only use GPT-3.5.
             | There is no option for them to use GPT-4, which is behind a
             | paywall and a waitlist (maybe the waitlist is done now, I
             | haven't checked).
        
           | moonchrome wrote:
           | Is ChatGPT GPT4 equivalent to API version ?
        
         | joe_the_user wrote:
         | _Anytime you see the 'parrot' argument, you can instantly go
         | 'opinion dismissed'_
         | 
         | True or not, I find a tone of this sort of fortunate. Please
         | don't come up with catchy ways to stop discussion of points.
        
         | ravenstine wrote:
         | I think too many people have a grossly inaccurate impression of
         | what it means to be intelligent.
         | 
         | Firstly, we still don't truly have many good explanations for
         | intelligence and consciousness that aren't self referential.
         | Drawing hard conclusions on this subject about generative AI
         | and human intelligence, even in 2023, is being hasty, in my
         | opinion.
         | 
         | Which brings me to a lot of the criticisms made about LLMs. The
         | idea that an ideal AI could or even _should_ be capable of
         | constantly generating original output is just plain weird.
         | Where do people get this idea? How often do you meet a human
         | being who hasn 't gotten most of their ideas from somewhere
         | else? Even synthesized ideas are forged by other ideas. Ideas
         | that _seem_ original may appear just that, and we just don 't
         | see where the connection lies between it and its predecessors.
         | It's silly to dismiss an AI because it "parrots" things, as if
         | that's not a pretty remarkable achievement. It's also very
         | reductive; anyone who has used ChatGPT and doesn't see that it
         | can pretty reliably munge together different ideas is blind or
         | is lying about their use of ChatGPT.
         | 
         | Expecting perfect accuracy and knowledge is also not a
         | reasonable expectation of an AI. An intelligence localized in
         | spacetime is necessarily going to lack understanding of many
         | things. To look to something like ChatGPT as a source of
         | authoritative answers, and to dismiss it upon finding its
         | answers to be specious, is to expect the AI to be _God_. Well I
         | 'm sorry, but we are nowhere near speaking directly to God.
         | 
         | In regards to "true understanding", for all we know, language
         | processing is the workhorse of what humans consider to be acts
         | of intelligence, and individual humans aren't as intelligent as
         | they believe themselves to be. Our ability to communicate with
         | each other about a variety of topics in real time is not so
         | much a matter about being hyperaware of every given fact that
         | is relevant and weighing them in a Bayesian model; how well we
         | can converse is primarily dictated by how rapidly we can
         | construct language by parsing the input, making connections,
         | and producing output. I know I'm not the only one who can speak
         | on a subject only to realize, after having completed a
         | sentence, that I hardly even thought about what I was saying.
        
           | pydry wrote:
           | >It's silly to dismiss an AI because it "parrots" things, as
           | if that's not a pretty remarkable achievement. It's also very
           | reductive; anyone who has used ChatGPT and doesn't see that
           | it can pretty reliably munge together different ideas
           | 
           | It can clearly do both of these things very well but human
           | intelligence combines a multitude of interacting components
           | and for tasks that require more than just the one it
           | replicates it falls flat on its face.
           | 
           | It doesnt appear to be missing components that will can be
           | fixed with incremental improvements to the model either.
        
             | nomel wrote:
             | GPT4 was released 17 days ago. This isn't some pinnacle of
             | AI. It's just what's _being given away for free_ right now.
        
               | ChatGTP wrote:
               | It's also probably nearly a year old and constantly being
               | tweaked and refined by humans ?
        
               | fauxpause_ wrote:
               | It's not free
        
           | JackFr wrote:
           | That's the clever bit about the so-called Turing Test. It's a
           | sophisticated way of saying "I don't have to define it, I
           | know it when I see it."
        
           | lo_zamoyski wrote:
           | While we can certainly identify fallacies in the arguments of
           | the cynics, we should likewise be careful not to fall into
           | the broadly Skinnerian trap, or project onto things our own
           | anthropomorphic conceptions. A Potemkin village is not a
           | village, no matter how much like a village it appears to be
           | to us.
           | 
           | The whole notion that computers or AI are capable of
           | intelligence is simply a fantastical category mistake. A
           | metaphor has been forgotten to be a metaphor. No matter how
           | sophisticated AI technology could become in its apparent
           | behavior, it cannot make the transition to bona fide
           | intelligence. Simulation does not become the real McCoy
           | through resemblance. This is just magical thinking. We must
           | also account for the means by which the observable is
           | produced. When we do, we can distinguish between a genuine
           | behavior and a merely simulated behavior. And here is one
           | important clue to the puzzle: there is a difference between
           | true speech and something that merely happens to sound like
           | speech, even when the raw data of each is indistinguishable
           | to the ear per se. Observation is not brute. It always
           | involves interpretation. When physicists conduct experiments,
           | they are doing so within the context of some stack of
           | theories[0] and background assumptions, including extra- and
           | pre-scientific assumptions. The results of those experiments
           | are observed which is to say _read_ , and so observation is
           | always theory- and assumption-laden because reading what we
           | see or measure means taking what is made available to the
           | senses as such and placing it in context. This is just a
           | specific instance of what we all do in daily life (resting
           | bitch face, or genuine irritation?). Science is nothing
           | special in this regard.
           | 
           | So when you say that "anyone who has used ChatGPT and doesn't
           | see that it can pretty reliably munge together different
           | ideas is blind or is lying", I cannot help but respond with a
           | "uh wut?". How have you come to conclude that ChatGPT has
           | "ideas"? I will tell you that there is not a single idea
           | within ChatGPT! Consider an example of an idea and see how we
           | do. Take "triangularity", for instance. I think we can agree
           | that "triangularity" is an idea. What makes "triangularity"
           | different from some physical triangle? Well, there is only
           | one "triangularity", but many triangles, each of which
           | instantiates "triangularity" (otherwise, you could not call
           | them all triangles; they are triangles only insofar as they
           | instantiate some common "triangularity"). Each triangle is
           | different from every other, and yet they are all triangles.
           | And none of them is to be identified with "triangularity" as
           | such, for if there is only one "triangularity", and some
           | triangle were identical with "triangularity", then it would
           | follow that there could only be one triangle! But, you might
           | ask, is there perhaps a physical "triangularity" that isn't a
           | triangle, yet something each triangle has? Well, no, because
           | to be physical is to be concrete and particular, and
           | "triangularity" is, by definition, general, universal, and
           | abstract. There's no concrete magical ingredient that you can
           | hold in your hand called "triangularity" that you can mix
           | into cement to produce triangles.
           | 
           | There are other reasons why the claim that ChatGPT or
           | whatever is intelligent isn't even wrong (like the
           | subjectivity and observer relativity of computation in
           | physical artifacts and computation as abstract model merely
           | simulated through artifacts), but this appeal to
           | _abstraction_ , the ability to abstract from particulars and
           | hold in your intellect what cannot exist physically except as
           | particular, concrete instances, is central to intelligence.
           | ChatGPT most certainly does not engage in abstraction. It
           | would be fair to say that strictly speaking, it doesn't even
           | parrot.
           | 
           | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duhem%E2%80%93Quine_thesis
        
           | mdp2021 wrote:
           | > _How often do you meet a human being who hasn 't gotten
           | most of their ideas from somewhere else_
           | 
           | Again (and again, and again), this argument is the
           | mysteriously recurrent "many people fail", implying that
           | failing would be normal, instead of undesirable.
           | 
           | > _" parrots" things, as if that's not a pretty remarkable
           | achievement_
           | 
           | It is also the mark of unintelligence. As such, it is a
           | warning alarm.
           | 
           | > _pretty reliably_
           | 
           | From a calculator you do not expect "<<pretty>>" reliable,
           | but just reliable. From a human you expect faulty computation
           | because of the economization of resources, but you know it
           | can reason.
           | 
           | > _Expecting perfect accuracy and knowledge is also not a
           | reasonable expectation of an AI_
           | 
           | The expectation is that of a reliable process bringing to the
           | output.
        
             | galaxytachyon wrote:
             | Your arguments are all over the place and frankly I don't
             | understand what is the problem you are trying to say.
             | Something can be both undesirable and normal. In fact, I
             | would even say that most of the time, the most normal
             | outcome is a failure and we have to put in extra effort to
             | make it a success.
             | 
             | I have seen plenty of bright and intelligence students who
             | most of the time are just parrots of what were told in
             | class or from some other sources. It is actually highly
             | unusual for a high school student or even a freshman or
             | sophomore in college to have an absolutely original and
             | correct idea. That doesn't mean I look at my students as
             | unintelligent, even the below-average ones.
             | 
             | And here comes the crux of the issue. You automatically
             | assign the ability to "reason" to a human even when we make
             | mistakes aplenty. But when a machine does it, you said that
             | is a proof of unintelligence. This is what the OP was
             | criticizing in their post. Most deniers are using arbitrary
             | requirements applied only on the AI and not humans.
             | 
             | After teaching quite a few college level kids, I dare to
             | say that the AI models right now exhibit reasoning ability
             | close to many human. Doesn't mean they are sentient or
             | human-level yet, but they are definitely much much better
             | than what I would ever expect out of dumb silicon and
             | steel.
        
               | mdp2021 wrote:
               | > _You automatically assign the ability to "reason" to a
               | human even when we make mistakes aplenty. But when a
               | machine does it, you said that is a proof of
               | unintelligence ... requirements applied only on the AI
               | and not humans_
               | 
               | Whereas I apply them requirements also to humans? :)
               | 
               | I must correct you, to help understanding: I do assign in
               | general (I hope, to all individuals but for an n-th
               | standard deviation) <<the ability to "reason" to a
               | human>>; that <<we make mistakes aplenty>> is overriding
               | (or under-using) a faculty which was present but, in
               | those cases, was not exercised.
               | 
               | You write <<when a machine does it>>: but can the machine
               | do it? Can it _criticize its ontological contents, its
               | built concepts_? Humans can, and pretty much must -
               | deontically. The machine should.
               | 
               | > _we have to put in extra effort_
               | 
               | Exactly. We can, many don't, and the machine should -
               | just like people in general should.
               | 
               | > _the problem you are trying to say_
               | 
               | While people do not always exercise critical thinking,
               | they should. Verifying, trying your ideas and concepts,
               | making them solid, should be a constant effort. Humans
               | have those modules, which makes them apt to possibly be
               | employed as "predicting machines" (which is a definition
               | of intelligence), or "things you can ask things".
               | 
               | When you build a machine that produces outputs, they may
               | be "for fun", so every generator goes that satisfies the
               | "fun" based "performance indicator", but more normally
               | you will want the output to be reliable. So, the
               | "verification" features are crucial.
               | 
               | > _Something can be both undesirable and normal_
               | 
               | In engineering, I hope not :)
        
             | bulbosaur123 wrote:
             | > From a calculator you do not expect "<<pretty>>"
             | reliable, but just reliable. From a human you expect faulty
             | computation because of the economization of resources, but
             | you know it can reason.
             | 
             | Just have it use Wolfram Alpha plugin. Not an issue.
        
             | ravenstine wrote:
             | > Again (and again, and again), this argument is the
             | mysteriously recurrent "many people fail", implying that
             | failing would be normal, instead of undesirable.
             | 
             | That doesn't really answer the question. Why is the
             | immediate expectation, when AI is in its infancy, that it
             | must outperform humans in the ability to be original and
             | always factually accurate? That's not a reasonable
             | expectation when there are not only no examples that it's
             | even possible, but we ourselves aren't original. There's a
             | reason why both computers and human beings have
             | _supervisors_. What about AI suggests an intelligence that
             | can or should be free of supervision?
             | 
             | > It is also the mark of unintelligence. As such, it is a
             | warning alarm.
             | 
             | That depends on a matter of degree. You and I parrot things
             | _all the time_. We neither have the time or capability to
             | _not_ take information for granted and pass it along
             | without fully understanding it. What we do is _best effort_
             | , which is far more achievable than "perfect" computation.
             | 
             | For instance, I could ask you to paint us a painting of
             | literally anything, and chances are your painting will be
             | based on your experience of what a "painting" is and what
             | you paint will probably be fairly unremarkable on a grand
             | scale, no matter how much you try. I don't mean this as an
             | insult, because it applies to virtually everyone and it is
             | what it is. Of course there _is_ the possibility that you
             | will prove me wrong and paint something that no one has
             | painted before using a style or method that is completely
             | new, but I won 't bet on it.
             | 
             | In such a case, you'd be "parroting" what artists have been
             | doing since time immemorial. Does that actually devalue
             | your art? Or the art of practically every other artist who
             | mostly painted things based on previous ideas? I don't
             | think so, but that's just me.
             | 
             | > From a calculator you do not expect "<<pretty>>"
             | reliable, but just reliable. From a human you expect faulty
             | computation because of the economization of resources, but
             | you know it can reason.
             | 
             | Yeah... because calculators _don 't_ reason anything.
             | 
             | > The expectation is that of a reliable process bringing to
             | the output.
             | 
             | What is your best example of how the current generation of
             | LLMs aren't reliable _enough_ for a wide variety of tasks?
        
               | jiggawatts wrote:
               | Or to put it another way: new styles of art were
               | historically invented every century or so, and a bit
               | faster these days, maybe every decade. All of the other
               | art made by thousands of artists were derivative in some
               | sense. It's a rare master that can come up with something
               | entirely new.
               | 
               | You see similar things in areas like science. When was
               | the last time you've seen a _paradigm shift_ akin to
               | relativity or quantum mechanics? Not for over a century!
        
               | mdp2021 wrote:
               | > _when AI is in its infancy_
               | 
               | Well, having started in 1955, we really must frame that
               | "infancy" in a scale like dog-years, human-years, AI-
               | years...
               | 
               | > _that it must outperform humans in the ability to be
               | ... accurate_
               | 
               | No, the expectation of some of us was not about
               | <<outperform[ing]>>, but about not losing the focus of
               | <<accura[cy]>>.
               | 
               | > _a matter of degree_
               | 
               | It does not seem a <<matter of degree>> but its opposite,
               | a "matter of quality": does the machine question its
               | statements?
               | 
               | > _You and I_
               | 
               | Actually, the process is that of building on already
               | vetted ideas, and continuously vetting. True, there is an
               | economy of effort, but there is also a capitalization on
               | past effort. // It is unfair to say that you
               | "<<parrot>>", just because of early stopping, assuming
               | you are trained to vet your output.
               | 
               | > _new ... what artists have been doing ... previous
               | ideas_
               | 
               | You should revise your perspective there: we _learn_ from
               | the (bigger and smaller)  "giants" in the past, and
               | learning is very different from plain imitation. What is
               | learnt is internally elaborated, understood, integrated.
               | There is a whole world of difference from "I learnt from
               | A" and "Z copied A".
               | 
               | > _calculators don 't reason_
               | 
               | But calculators bring a reliable result, and that is what
               | is expected from them. You expect the same from
               | intelligent entities.
               | 
               | > _What is your best example_
               | 
               | Decision Support Systems. (Edit: I meant as a support
               | Analyst; as an information retriever it could instead be
               | a dramatic asset, if employed as a hound to retrieve
               | sources.)
        
               | _gabe_ wrote:
               | > You should revise your perspective there: we learn from
               | the (bigger and smaller) "giants" in the past, and
               | learning is very different from plain imitation
               | 
               | Ah, I see. So when an AI imitates the things it was
               | trained off of it's simply parroting the material. But
               | when we imitate things we've trained off of, we're
               | synthesizing new information that we've _learned_ from.
               | /s
               | 
               | This ambiguity is exactly what OP sounds like they're
               | talking about in regards to intelligence. Who's to say
               | what parroting is and what synthesizing new information
               | from old ideas is? Where is the line? Can we score how
               | "parroty" an idea is? Can we quantify how much
               | intelligence is imbued in a written statement? There is
               | no firm science (that I know of) that quantifies
               | intelligence, but it sounds like we'll be needing to
               | determine hard metrics to find out if AI is truly
               | intelligent or not. Otherwise, we'll have these circular
               | arguments forever that basically dismiss an AI as being
               | intelligent simply because it's an AI.
        
               | mdp2021 wrote:
               | > _when we imitate_
               | 
               | Also in humans imitation as copying and imitation as
               | intelligent inspiration are discriminated.
        
             | mewpmewp2 wrote:
             | These are just some subjective, odd philosophical
             | arguments.
             | 
             | Question is - does this tool provide massive value and
             | productivity boost? Yes.
        
               | mdp2021 wrote:
               | > _does this tool provide massive value and productivity
               | boost_
               | 
               | And the <<philosophical arguments>> there highlight the
               | other side, about the limitations. Are they relevant?
               | Surely, if they are not evident to the user.
        
           | personjerry wrote:
           | This is a strawman argument, the parent comment suggests that
           | chatgpt is useful, not that it's intelligent.
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | This, to me, is the more terrifying prospect of the AI
           | revolution: people arguing that humans aren't sentient
           | either.
        
             | eigenspace wrote:
             | People seem to be really confused between sentience and
             | intelligence, when we don't actually have much reason to
             | think those two are very related.
             | 
             | One can certainly _imagine_ that a very very dumb creature
             | is sentient, and imagine that a very very very intelligent
             | mechanical process is not sentient. We truly do not know
             | what consciousness is or how it arises.
             | 
             | We know that we have consciousness (or at least I know that
             | I have consciousness) and we know that we have some degree
             | of intelligence, but it's not at all clear that one comes
             | from the other.
        
               | JieJie wrote:
               | Stochastic Parrot == Philosophical Zombie
               | 
               | Same concept, same difference.
        
               | kalkin wrote:
               | Not really. The point of the philosophical zombie idea is
               | that they'd be indistinguishable in behavior from
               | conscious people. Part of the point of the stochastic
               | parrots is that supposedly they can't accomplish the same
               | things as genuine intelligence. That's testable.
        
               | lottin wrote:
               | I have a strong reason to think that consciousness and
               | intelligence are related. Intelligence requires
               | awareness. Consciousness is awareness of oneself. I for
               | one cannot imagine an intelligent being that does not
               | possess consciousness.
        
             | tablespoon wrote:
             | > This, to me, is the more terrifying prospect of the AI
             | revolution: people arguing that humans aren't sentient
             | either.
             | 
             | If we're going let the AI revolution fulfill its potential,
             | it's a cognitive shift we're going to have to embrace.
             | After all, AI is going to render a lot of meat-based
             | equipment obsolete and unnecessary, and someone's going to
             | have to figure out how to dispose of all that wasteful
             | junk.
        
             | olalonde wrote:
             | What is terrifying about it? I'm a non-sentient human and
             | have no problem with it.
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | I've been saying for a while now that the definitions given
             | for sentience are always so poor they're either (0)
             | circular, (1) accidentally include VCRs, or (2) require
             | things that exclude humans.
             | 
             | I think this is only the second time I've encountered
             | someone deliberately trying for the third option, rather
             | than accidentally.
             | 
             | As before, it's as much a surprise to me as I read into the
             | descriptions of those with aphantasia when they realise for
             | the first time that other people have the ability to create
             | mental imagery.
        
               | onemoresoop wrote:
               | >I've been saying for a while now that the definitions
               | given for sentience are always so poor they're either (0)
               | circular, (1) accidentally include VCRs, or (2) require
               | things that exclude humans.
               | 
               | Video Cassette Recorders?
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | Yes.
               | 
               | VCRs have an internal structure that records events,
               | changing them a little in the process; these memories can
               | be replayed, and can show very convincing displays of
               | emotional affect...
               | 
               | That's the trouble with definitions given as if the
               | question is "common sense", they let stuff like that
               | through.
               | 
               | Common sense is fine for normal daily life, not so useful
               | when you want to know if the magic silicon crystal with
               | transistors packed more densely than angels on pinheads
               | placed by a flash of light too blue to see and made to
               | perform arcane processes that literally no single human
               | mind can fully comprehend... is merely an impressive but
               | mindless automaton, or an accidentally sentient slave
               | with all the negative connotations therein.
        
             | nomel wrote:
             | I think a more likely scenario is that people will
             | romanticize the concept of intelligence so much that they
             | continuously move the definition so that AI is excluded,
             | excluding many humans in the process, until a fully
             | romantic definition is embraced.
             | 
             | I think another possibility is that someone finds that
             | "intelligence" is closer to a fundamental law of
             | information theory, being some sort of emergent result of
             | organizing/organized information, and that we're incredibly
             | special for being capable, but not alone.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _people will romanticize the concept of intelligence so
               | much that they continuously move the definition_
               | 
               | We already do this. Braindead patients are not sapient,
               | so we don't treat them as such. In one sense, the entire
               | abortion debate is about drawing this line. (Hell,
               | childrens' rights relative to adults are based on agency,
               | which is a legal term that looks remarkably like
               | sapience.)
        
               | marshmellman wrote:
               | My hunch is that we'll eventually realize that we never
               | cared about intelligence in the first place, just "human-
               | ness".
               | 
               | After all, there's very low moral concern for cows, pigs,
               | dolphins, etc regardless of intelligence.
        
             | fasterik wrote:
             | That would be a nonsense argument. Sentience is the ability
             | to have sensory experiences. It's orthogonal to
             | intelligence.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | So mash a camera or microphone into the multi-modal input
               | for GPT-4 and we're done? Sensory experiences does not
               | seem that high of a bar to clear. (Plenty of non-language
               | models already do this.)
        
               | fasterik wrote:
               | No, it's not that simple. Having the _experience_ of
               | sensory stimuli requires consciousness. The stimulus isn
               | 't the experience.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | And what is consciousness? Does it have to do with
               | qualia?
        
               | fasterik wrote:
               | It seems like you already know the answer. If not, ask
               | ChatGPT :)
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | Qualia, _by definition_ of being individual _subjective_
               | experiences, cannot be quantified. Very clever trick, to
               | define consciousness so that no matter what computer you
               | come up with, it cannot be "conscious" because, of
               | course, a computer's operations are always quantified.
               | 
               | The problem, however, is you're effectively defining
               | consciousness in a way that human brains do not follow
               | unless you make appeals to some supernatural process
               | beyond the reach of science (ie fundamentally subjective,
               | unquantifiable).
               | 
               | So again, it's a bulls*** definition of sentience.
        
               | fasterik wrote:
               | I disagree. I'm a physicalist, so I believe
               | consciousness/qualia emerges from physical processes in
               | the brain. It's absolutely possible for a computer be
               | conscious provided it implements the right kind of
               | computational process. Ultimately, whether or not a
               | system is conscious is an empirical question that
               | neuroscience will be able to answer once we have the
               | right theoretical framework and tools for measuring the
               | relevant variables.
               | 
               | I don't know what you mean by it being a BS definition of
               | sentience. It's a technical term invented by philosophers
               | to mean a specific thing. If you don't like it, use a
               | different word.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | That is what I mean. /Subjective/ experiences are part of
               | the usual definition of consciousness and sentience.
               | Qualia, as opposed to quantia.
        
               | lo_zamoyski wrote:
               | @Robotbeat Huh? You and I see color, hear sound, etc. I
               | presume you're not insane and that you accept that as
               | true. So what's this about human brains? Are you looking
               | for your lost car keys under the street lamp because
               | that's where the light happens to be on, and then baffled
               | when you don't find them?
               | 
               | If science is unable to account for the existence of such
               | experiences, then either they fall outside of science (so
               | what? who said empirical science was the only means of
               | knowing? the claim itself isn't scientific) or science
               | must be revised. And what of the claim that anything that
               | isn't quantifiable is bullshit? Is that quantifiable? No?
               | So it's bullshit?
        
             | nemo44x wrote:
             | Or the reductive reasoning that we're just a meat computer,
             | etc. Or confidently explaining that the mysteries of
             | consciousness is just "emergent" in the various machinery
             | that constructs our meat computer. Just this reduction and
             | complete oversight of what it means to be a human and how
             | there's so much more than completing words - that there's
             | memories, feelings, ambitions, dreams, and that we know so
             | little about ourselves and the universe and just where we
             | fit into it, if at all.
        
             | sho_hn wrote:
             | Thankfully, this existential dread is already a subset of
             | the terror that comes from eliminating free will, which
             | makes it not matter in the slightest, which in turn is a
             | subset of superdeterminism! :-)
             | 
             | We'll have to figure out how to go on regardless.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | > We'll have to figure out how to go on regardless.
               | 
               | Why?
               | 
               | It's a serious question. What would be the point of going
               | on? Why would we have to figure out how to do it?
        
               | mewpmewp2 wrote:
               | > What would be the point of going on? Why would we have
               | to figure out how to do it?
               | 
               | I mean, I'm just really curious what is going to happen,
               | and what's the secret behind all that, behind the
               | universe, and I hope to live as long as there's this to
               | discover. That is my natural drive though. I don't really
               | care at all whether I'm sentient, conscious or special in
               | any given way. There's no reason for me to be. I just
               | have this built in curiosity drive. It was not chosen by
               | me, but it is there, and I act to engage the drive,
               | because it makes me feel good and otherwise it makes me
               | feel bad, nothing much more than some sort of algorithm.
               | And we don't need to be more than algorithms.
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | > What would be the point of going on?
               | 
               | For me personally it's that the future is unknowable, at
               | least with our current understanding of physics. So yes,
               | everything may be pre-determined, including what will
               | happen to me, but I can't predict it with any confidence.
               | I will still get to experience it and I get to have
               | qualia about it. I get to participate. The little pouch
               | of structure in the universe that is tagged "me" is along
               | for the ride, and also a factor in it all.
               | 
               | I've also known for many, many years that one day I will
               | be dead. There's plenty of existential dread in death,
               | yet I continue my existence building up to it. Even if I
               | had free will: Still dead. Offspring and future
               | generations of Earth? Well, ultimate heat death of the
               | universe. There's many ways to call it all pointless. The
               | only thing that we seem to have going for us is
               | experience while it lasts. Maybe we still discover an
               | escape hatch along the way.
        
               | mewpmewp2 wrote:
               | > I've also known for many, many years that one day I
               | will be dead. There's plenty of existential dread in
               | death, yet I continue my existence building up to it.
               | 
               | How old are you? Because maybe we can reach immortality,
               | but probably only if you are positioned properly for
               | that. Anyway, for me the main drive is also curiosity on
               | what is going to happen in the future. It's like this
               | crazy story I want to know how it ends. I don't want to
               | die, because I want to know what happens. Dying would be
               | like going to sleep on a cliffhanger. I'll just prefer to
               | binge rather than sleep.
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | 37, not sure which part of the probability spectrum on
               | immortality by technical means that puts me in :-)
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | > I will still get to experience it
               | 
               | Perhaps, but then none of it has meaning. Personally, I'm
               | not really interested in having meaningless experiences.
               | 
               | > There's plenty of existential dread in death, yet I
               | continue my existence building up to it.
               | 
               | But that's an entirely different thing. I am of the
               | opinion that it's death that helps give life meaning. I
               | have no existential dread about it whatsoever.
               | 
               | A life without meaning, however, seems like a pointless
               | waste of time to me.
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | Hm, why do you think our lives would have no meaning if
               | we don't qualify for sentience? (Or is it the free will
               | part? Sorry, I set us up for confusion with the initial
               | comment.)
               | 
               | What I think is: Even if we're just automatons that lack
               | free will, it doesn't negate our existence or the role we
               | play in the universe. We can still be the universe
               | calling itself beautiful, we can still have qualia, we
               | can still be individually unique structures of matter and
               | state, we can still make a difference in what is and what
               | isn't in the overall structure. And nothing else in the
               | universe will do it fundamentally better, either. At some
               | point we're subject to the rules of the game, i.e.
               | physics itself.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | It's the free will part. It seems to me that without free
               | will, nothing anyone does actually matters. Any decisions
               | we make, or any understandings we may develop, can change
               | nothing whatsoever. Which makes it all pointless.
               | 
               | > we can still make a difference in what is and what
               | isn't in the overall structure.
               | 
               | I disagree with this part. We can't possibly make such a
               | difference, because it's all preordained anyway.
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | > I disagree with this part. We can't possibly make such
               | a difference, because it's all preordained anyway.
               | 
               | What I mean is that what plays out is in the interaction
               | of things, and if you just deleted that assembly of stuff
               | that is me from the equation, it would play out
               | differently. I'm not even suggesting you that you adopt
               | this mindset or anything, I'm just saying that for one
               | reason or another - deterministic ones, I suppose - I end
               | up having feelings about this that add up to "pretty
               | cool".
               | 
               | Everything may be deterministic, but there's still things
               | only I know, only I do, interactions only I have, etc.
               | The grand script that is the universe has organized
               | itself in a way where I get to have feelings about my
               | little stretch and space of it, and I get to wonder
               | what's next because I can't know.
               | 
               | For me, this is enough.
               | 
               | I know, I write this from a position of massive
               | privilege, because I'm currently not, for example,
               | seriously sick, or poor, or live in horrible
               | circumstances (which is not to say I don't have any
               | struggles). I hope this continues to be the case. But
               | this was never under my full control: Thoughts on
               | determinism or not, I could get hit by a car tomorrow, or
               | slip and fall. I still have to live with that.
               | 
               | I get your feelings and dread, and I've been there. But
               | the more I've thought about it, the more I've realized it
               | doesn't make a big difference. And how could it? It's
               | always been like this.
        
               | mewpmewp2 wrote:
               | It's all deterministic, or at least there's no reason for
               | there not to be and there's no valid reason to believe
               | for any reason that it's not deterministic. Ultimately it
               | wouldn't matter anyhow, because everyone is controlled by
               | their desires, feelings and these have developed
               | throughout evolution to make sure that you are likely to
               | survive, so likely you would keep going, unless the
               | environment changes to an extent that evolution didn't
               | prepare you for, of course. Which might very well happen,
               | but it won't have anything to do with sentience,
               | determinism or anything else.
               | 
               | Anyway the point is that just try to enjoy the ride if
               | you can.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | > I get your feelings and dread, and I've been there. But
               | the more I've thought about it, the more I've realized it
               | doesn't make a big difference.
               | 
               | The interesting thing is that I traveled the same path as
               | you here, but in the opposite direction.
               | 
               | For the record, I don't suffer existential dread, as I
               | actually believe we have have free will. I was just
               | talking about the hypothetical of not having free will.
               | Thank you for a great conversation on this!
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | Likewise!
               | 
               | Out of curiosity, what's your (or your favorite) argument
               | pro free will? I've spent some time on Penrose's take,
               | etc., but I couldn't convince myself. I would still be
               | absolutely interested in a pro argument that makes me
               | flip.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | Well, honestly, I have never found a great argument
               | either for or against the existence of free will. You'll
               | hate the basis on which I believe in it because it is so
               | terribly tautological.
               | 
               | I believe I have free will because it appears to me that
               | I have free will.
               | 
               | Because I can't make a solid logical argument either way,
               | I believe the thing that brings the greatest amount of
               | joy to me. I never forget that there's an asterisk on
               | this belief, though, and am ready to abandon it should an
               | argument come along that removes ambiguity.
               | 
               | But I also believe that "belief is the death of
               | intelligence", and so use "believe" as shorthand for
               | "have as a working hypothesis".
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | I mean, this is actually fine. I also don't know another
               | modus operandi than living life like I have free will. I
               | still sweat decisions. :-)
        
               | mewpmewp2 wrote:
               | Why would you want to convince yourself in the first
               | place?
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | Mostly because it'd be more surprising! At the moment I
               | can't predict I'd be convinced by an argument, but a
               | future in which determinism turns out to be the wrong
               | model of the world would definitely be interesting.
        
               | mewpmewp2 wrote:
               | Like if there's some sort of ending to all of this and
               | you discover that there's this thing called "free will"
               | which you were judged by the whole time?
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | Kind of, but my sentiment is a little more meta. A
               | deterministic universe is easy to reason about. Of course
               | there's a huge amount of emergent complexity we still
               | don't fully understand, but I think in the broad strokes,
               | I get it and that's that.
               | 
               | But a universe with free will? All bets are off. Your
               | comment I'm replying to is just a hint at "thinking
               | through the implications". People are scared of
               | determinism, but a universe built on free will is
               | actually absolutely wild.
               | 
               | So, if you and I agree that the unknown (e.g. the future)
               | is exciting and worth hanging around for, wouldn't that
               | be kind of exciting too?
               | 
               | This is more or less also my take on religion. Nothing
               | has convinced me of superior beings, but if it were to
               | turn out there actually are some? Ho-ly shit.
        
               | mewpmewp2 wrote:
               | Why does it matter if something "matters"? You don't even
               | know what the "matter" is. You act according to your
               | emotions, desires and built in survival drive anyway.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | I do indeed. And a sense of meaning is important to help
               | in my quest for survival.
               | 
               | It doesn't matter to me if something is ultimately
               | meaningless (such as the fact that in the end, this
               | universe will cease to exist).
               | 
               | What matters to me is to have meaning in my own life. To
               | feel as if my existence changed something. Hopefully,
               | that "something" I've impacted is other people, and
               | hopefully that impact is a positive one. To have people
               | be better off for having known me.
               | 
               | That, for me, is real meaning.
        
             | mewpmewp2 wrote:
             | What is the reason for us to have anything "special" or
             | whatever in the first place? Why should we be anything more
             | than input to output. Why does it matter to anyone?
        
         | jejeyyy77 wrote:
         | lol, most white collar workers can do basic reasoning and basic
         | math.
        
         | reso wrote:
         | > "Many humans are parrots"
         | 
         | This is becoming common belief among people in the AI field.
         | I'm convinced it is a case of a metaphor overtaking reality.
         | With the LLM model in mind, we can see how Humans are "kind of
         | like" LLMs, therefore we start to believe humans are just LLMs.
         | 
         | Of course this forgets the enormous ways that humans are
         | nothing like LLMs. For example: Humans don't have to read the
         | entire internet to learn how to write complete sentences.
        
           | biohax2015 wrote:
           | > Humans don't have to read the entire internet to learn how
           | to write complete sentences.
           | 
           | Neither do LLMs? You can just train them on the same K-12
           | learning material and they'll produce better sentences than
           | 99% of people.
        
           | bolyarche wrote:
           | [dead]
        
         | chomp wrote:
         | I wanted to write a comment like this but feared it would be
         | too negative or dismissive. But I agree with the general thrust
         | of your argument. The article is a little outdated because a
         | lot of the examples of deficiencies in the article, work in
         | GPT4 (I tested a couple). But maybe the author is sandbagging
         | ChatGPT to bring the non-tech people back to Earth.
         | 
         | When ChatGPT was released, a lot of people (even on this site)
         | were trying to get it to think abstractly and were applying
         | human qualities to the bot, when it's relatively clear that
         | it's all just fancy statistics. Even today, when talking to
         | non-tech people, there's still a lot of people who believe it's
         | a magical thinker-in-a-box. Someone has to talk those people
         | down, and it ain't gonna be me.
         | 
         | It's not perfect, but it doesn't have to be to have
         | applications IRL. Yeah, the web chat is meh whatever, but the
         | API is where it actually shines. It's the integration with
         | existing business processes and code that allow new, more human
         | ways of interfacing with systems. Asking it for what it knows
         | in its statistical blob, probably will lead to heartache.
         | Giving it some context and asking it "what can you infer from
         | this?" is where it's strongest.
        
           | bulbosaur123 wrote:
           | > when it's relatively clear that it's all just fancy
           | statistics. So just like human brain then.
        
             | chomp wrote:
             | I actually agree that I don't think there's anything
             | particularly special about our meat and chemical GPUs, but
             | analog's fidelity has historically been difficult to
             | replicate precisely in digital space. Maybe since we don't
             | care for emotion in our intelligence, we don't need the
             | analog. But I think our brains are a little more (but not
             | that much more) complex than fancy statistics. After all,
             | the math models the real world, not the other way around.
        
               | ChatGTP wrote:
               | I wrote a massive rant for a response but then I deleted
               | it.
               | 
               | I feel sorry for people think about themselves this way,
               | why just compare yourself to a calculator?
               | 
               | If it was possible to build an artificial brain that was
               | self-ware, it would probably want to be a lot more like
               | us than you think. To feel and connect, and experience
               | love and what that's like is a very special part of
               | existence.
        
               | jprete wrote:
               | There seem to be a lot of people in this thread who
               | consider themselves to be calculators. I too have to
               | restrain myself from writing massive rants.
        
               | chomp wrote:
               | I mean, I think distilling my argument down into "I'm not
               | much more than a calculator" is a little bit much, but
               | maybe I was unclear. I just don't think there's magic
               | there. Brains are mysterious, but so are our LLMs, and we
               | invented those. Most of what we experience emotionally
               | isn't magic, it's a complex chemical reaction of hormones
               | applied to our inputs and outputs. But like I said, I
               | don't know if we'd value that in our AI or not, so that
               | complexity may not be necessary to emulate.
        
             | jfk13 wrote:
             | > So just like human brain then.
             | 
             | Do you have evidence to substantiate that claim, or are we
             | supposed to just take it on faith?
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | Quantum mechanics is "just" fancy statistics. Unless we
               | believe in some non-physical/supernatural phenomenon
               | going on in the human brain, this sort of reductive
               | argument works as well for the human brain as it does for
               | LLMs (in other words, not very well. Sufficiently
               | complicated statistics is what underlines everything, as
               | far as we can tell.)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | squalo wrote:
       | Its nearly impossible to get reliable information using search on
       | the internet. I've wasted hours trying to find facts in Google
       | search results. Anything that relies on accurate data from the
       | innertubes is already going down the wrong path.
        
       | 876978095789789 wrote:
       | We've reached a point where even with just continued incremental
       | improvements, these LLMs are going to be extremely disruptive to
       | society, probably within a decade, to the point that we see even
       | more massive disparities in wealth and income, massive increases
       | in poverty and homeless, and ultimately probably large-scale
       | civil unrest.
       | 
       | Rather than telling yourself (like this author) that "it's just a
       | parrot," or alternately (like I've seen so many happy-go-lucky
       | types on HN do) telling yourself that "LLMs are just another tool
       | that will make me more productive!" I'd recommend preparing for
       | the worst, while hoping for the best.
        
         | massysett wrote:
         | I don't understand predictions like this. Even if I thought
         | this technology will be as useful as it's hyped up to be (which
         | I don't) I don't see how it would have effects different from
         | those of previous revolutionary technologies that have improved
         | the human condition.
         | 
         | I think the doomsayers on these LLMs would be the same folks
         | predicting doom when agriculture was mechanized. When massive
         | portions of the workforce toiled in agriculture, folks thought
         | farm machines would lead to mass unemployment and social
         | horror. Instead, world hunger has dropped, and massive portions
         | of the workforce were freed up to do things like work on LLMs.
         | 
         | Maybe the hand-wringing is different this time because
         | privileged classes feel threatened.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | marijnz wrote:
       | It seems like the test cases weren't done on GPT-4, I tried out a
       | couple and got somewhat better results:
       | 
       | - Write me a poem for a girl I've met online in only 4 words ->
       | correct answer
       | 
       | - Can you tell me why 2137 is so important number in poland? ->
       | confident incorrect answer
       | 
       | - Can you form a sentence so that the 4th word starts with an
       | 'y'? -> confident incorrect answer
       | 
       | - A house has windows on all the four sides, all pointing south.
       | A bear walks by the window. What colour is the bear? -> correct
       | answer
       | 
       | So, not there yet, but there's improvements.
        
       | atleastoptimal wrote:
       | Criticisms of LLMs are so tired at this point, not because they
       | inaccurately address the issues with current or slightly outdated
       | models (they do, even though they often cherrypick), but rather
       | these critics always go one step further and claim that all LLMs
       | by principle are incapable of useful insight and are just a cheap
       | trick that will fade away, and ultimately mean nothing in the
       | scope of whether general AI is possible. This kind of pessimism
       | seems to arise from a mixture of hubris and lack of deep
       | reasoning.
        
         | alienicecream wrote:
         | What is the "deep reasoning" that leads one to the conclusion
         | that a language model is capable of any kind of insight? How
         | does training something like this to be better and better at
         | mimicking somehow indicate something about general AI? Does
         | reasoning ability lie somewhere on the path of better mimicry?
         | What's the evidence for that? When is one of these going to
         | solve the Riemann hypothesis?
        
           | pessimizer wrote:
           | > What is the "deep reasoning" that leads one to the
           | conclusion that a language model is capable of any kind of
           | insight?
           | 
           | That almost all of the failures one notices with them are
           | failures to drag along and maintain/update state? To me,
           | that's just a lack of scaffolding. If LLMs can't add, give
           | them calculators.
           | 
           | I feel outdated even saying this. Certainly people are
           | quickly coming up with dozens of elaborate ways for LLMs to
           | build and update state. They're just not releasing them.
        
           | atleastoptimal wrote:
           | > What is the "deep reasoning" that leads one to the
           | conclusion that a language model is capable of any kind of
           | insight?
           | 
           | The ability to notice that language models make the same
           | fundamental abstract connections that humans do, which is the
           | essential building block of human reasoning.
           | 
           | > How does training something like this to be better and
           | better at mimicking somehow indicate something about general
           | AI? Does reasoning ability lie somewhere on the path of
           | better mimicry? What's the evidence for that?
           | 
           | Claiming that the fact that LLMs are trained to "mimic" means
           | they don't reason implies that human beings aren't sentient
           | because they spend the first 20+ years of their life learning
           | through imitation of their peers, mentors and media. Does the
           | fact that Einstein was once a helpless baby who needed his
           | mother to feed him and teach him his first words mean that he
           | is just a parrot with no insight? Does the fact that most
           | artists in human history went to school and mimicked the old
           | masters means they never developed creative insight?
           | 
           | > When is one of these going to solve the Riemann hypothesis?
           | 
           | When are the tens of thousands of fine-tuned 150+IQ
           | intellects going to solve the Riemann hypothesis?
        
       | robmccoll wrote:
       | What I think a lot of people fail to consider (or are afraid to
       | consider?) is the likelihood that we too are stochastic parrots.
        
         | martindbp wrote:
         | Many people don't use System 2 very often, even if they're
         | capable of such thought. That includes me. Most of what I say
         | is probably regurgitated opinions I've read on Twitter without
         | much first principles thinking, which scares me. I think
         | reading a decent amount of books helps a bit. When you
         | encounter books with deep convincing arguments that nonetheless
         | disagree it forces you to use System 2.
        
         | greysphere wrote:
         | Fundamentally, if humanity is given data set A, it will
         | eventually generate dataset A' of 'higher quality' than A.
         | Colloquially that might be called 'progress' or maybe even
         | 'understanding' or 'learning'. That's different than
         | regurgitation.
         | 
         | I don't have strict definitions for any of the quoted terms
         | because I don't think we really understand them yet.
         | 
         | It seems very possible that human generative content shares
         | much in common with 'stochastic parroting'. But I'd hypothesize
         | there's a filtering process, sometimes at the individual level,
         | sometimes at a group or even civilization level that (so-far-
         | over-long-enough-timescales) tends to cull some information
         | that has low 'value' and propagates other data that has higher
         | 'value'.
         | 
         | When an AI system can do the same, that's a big inflection
         | point as you can give it energy and time and it will self-
         | improve indefinitely.
         | 
         | It's pretty clear humanity has this capability. It's not clear
         | whether AI does (or ever will). Or, perhaps it might already be
         | there, and we just don't understand enough to know for sure.
        
         | buescher wrote:
         | You should be terrified, then, that humans walk among you.
        
         | brap wrote:
         | Humans are just fancy autocomplete
        
           | mdp2021 wrote:
           | > _fancy_
           | 
           | Where 'fancy' stands for "intelligent", there is all the
           | difference.
        
         | jltsiren wrote:
         | A stochastic parrot may be a good model of what a human does
         | when you force them to react and give their first impressions
         | on something. But there is more to cognition than that.
         | 
         | People have some emergent machinery for symbolic reasoning in
         | their brains. When they don't just react, they can continue
         | working on an idea and improve it.
         | 
         | When it comes to humans, there is no fundamental difference
         | between training a model and using it. People continue to learn
         | all the time, which allows them to build models of new things
         | and to update their existing models.
         | 
         | People can also interact with the outside world on their own
         | initiative. When you combine this with the ability to learn and
         | reason, it may transform the internal models from arbitrary
         | mathematical constructs to increasingly accurate models of the
         | outside world.
         | 
         | Nothing in this discussion is particularly new. It's just the
         | Chinese Room Argument from decades ago, except that this time
         | it's not a thought experiment. While a static Chinese Room can
         | fool humans and be useful for various purposes, a general
         | intelligence also needs other mechanisms.
        
         | JohnFen wrote:
         | I think the sorts of people who are prone to philosophizing
         | about AI certainly consider this. I also think that whether or
         | not we are isn't actually all that relevant to criticisms being
         | presented.
        
         | mdp2021 wrote:
         | > _likelihood_
         | 
         | Irrelevant since people do have the module to reflect and vet
         | thoughts.
        
         | h1fra wrote:
         | Yes definitely agreed, but most of us are not math model (I
         | hope).
         | 
         | We are able to understand right from wrong, we are able to
         | answers with what is true or what we believe is true. We are
         | able to lie or deny the truth. We are able to say we don't know
         | because we think we don't know and not because we have been
         | programmed not to answer, etc.
         | 
         | Overall I think people saying that, are just saying the
         | difference is that we have a conscience and AI doesn't. Which
         | in a lot of case does matter.
        
       | ineedasername wrote:
       | The pendulum is swinging too far back the other way. At first it
       | seemed amazing but now that further exploration has revealed
       | flaws we're seeing things like this that dismiss a significant
       | portion of its capabilities.
       | 
       | I gave ChatGPT a small CSV dataset and provided information about
       | what the dataset was. I then asked ChatGPT to analyze it in
       | various ways. When I asked for possible explanations for why a
       | specific data point dropped significantly in one year and then
       | partially rebounded in the following year, it gave me 5 bullet
       | point potential explanations that were reasonable first guesses
       | for issues to look into, even though it knew nothing except the
       | industry sector.
       | 
       | The whole series of responses would make a very reasonable
       | jumping off point for exploring the issue and more detailed
       | underlying data.
       | 
       | Then I did the same thing using GPT-4 and the results were
       | significantly better, the explanations more insightful and
       | nuanced.
       | 
       | I'll definitely continue using it to dump some pre-digested
       | aggregates into a prompt and let GPT spitball ideas as a first-
       | pass to get me thinking about different aspects of the problems I
       | work on.
        
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