[HN Gopher] UBS got Credit Suisse for almost nothing
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       UBS got Credit Suisse for almost nothing
        
       Author : mfiguiere
       Score  : 133 points
       Date   : 2023-03-20 18:14 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bloomberg.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bloomberg.com)
        
       | notShabu wrote:
       | The reason the bank is worth nothing is because it's all
       | liabilities (responsibility to provide customer deposits) and no
       | profit.
       | 
       | However it's similar to when people fight over the most important
       | projects and tickets in a company. They fight over something with
       | "negative" value (more work, risky initiatives) because it
       | increases how "critical" or important they are to the company
       | which can be leveraged into far more value later on.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | revel wrote:
       | There was a question last week about mark-to-mark accounting for
       | banks in the wake of the SVB failure. The question was (to
       | paraphrase): why aren't banks forced to mark every asset for
       | every financial statement. This article pretty comprehensively
       | describes why such a thing is not really possible, let alone
       | desirable.
       | 
       | In regards to this article, I have to laugh at the asset managers
       | holding cocos who thought that they were trading pseudo-warrants.
       | I respect the shamelessness of these guys to try and blame other
       | people for their own mistakes -- a lot of portfolio managers were
       | successfully able to convince investors that their losses during
       | the GFC were due to the ratings or govt agencies -- but they're
       | not going to convince the central banks to eat the losses on this
       | one. There is absolutely no incentive to make Swiss taxpayers eat
       | tens of billions of losses because some fund manager didn't read
       | the literal name of the instrument he was buying.
        
       | rafaelturk wrote:
       | Nohting... Plus all the skeletons in the closet (a.k.a bad debt)
        
       | gbN025tt2Z1E2E4 wrote:
       | So the solution to the banking collapse is to create even MORE
       | too-big-to-fail monopoly banks? The corruption has gotten so far
       | out of control at this point it's laughable.
        
         | xadhominemx wrote:
         | Yes, the solution for a distressed bad medium-sized bank is for
         | a larger good bank to buy them before they unwind chaotically
         | have bring down other banks / the economy. That's been the
         | correct/reasonable approach for centuries.
         | 
         | No one is really getting bailed out here: CS shareholders will
         | lose ~80% vs what they were worth a couple weeks ago, the AT1
         | shareholders got wiped out, and if you look at UBS's share
         | price, it's not like people think they got an extraordinary
         | gift from the regulators. UBS management at will have to suffer
         | an enormous headache to integrate the operations.
        
         | revel wrote:
         | Where is the corruption in any of this? That is a strong
         | accusation without any semblance of an argument.
         | 
         | During a downturn the stronger companies often acquire
         | distressed competitors and consolidate. Evidence of corruption
         | would be CS being propped up and executives allowed to pay
         | themselves big bonuses. I'm not seeing anything like that, are
         | you?
        
         | yieldcrv wrote:
         | The protest outside of Credit Suisse in Switzerland is about
         | that
         | 
         | Specifically the variety of undemocratic processes to reach
         | this result in the past and now. Federal Council overriding
         | parliament and the population, specifically to override the
         | potential will of shareholders in the company.
        
       | lordnacho wrote:
       | The interesting part is the part about the AT1 "bonds". I put
       | them in quotation marks because according to the article, they
       | are more like a form of subordinate equity. In some ways. Weird
       | and fascinating instrument, it's not often I come across a new
       | one.
        
         | cm2187 wrote:
         | Though the fact that this ia a CoCo is a red herring. I don't
         | think it was singled out for bailin because it had a CoCo
         | trigger (what Levin goes through at length), I believe it was
         | bailed in because it was the most junior, non-common equity,
         | instrument on the balance sheet (i.e. rank=junior
         | subordinated).
         | 
         | If the swiss authorities needed to do a bigger bailin to
         | generate more equity, they could have also written off the next
         | instruments in the investor hiearchy which are the T2
         | instruments (i.e. rank=subordinated). And if they needed even
         | more they could have gone after the bailin bonds (i.e.
         | rank=senior unsecured - in theory pari-passu to uninsured
         | deposits but issued out of a different legal entity so they can
         | be singled-out). None of which have CoCo triggers.
         | 
         | The Fed could do the same with preference shares (rank=junior
         | subordinated) issued by US banks that have no CoCo feature (US
         | doesn't care about Basel regulations).
        
         | kurthr wrote:
         | Yes, they wiped out these CoCo (Contingent Convertable) bonds,
         | which are floated to provide money to provide a "capital
         | cushion" in the case of stress. As bonds they're definitely
         | weird, because (in this case) they are effectively subordinate
         | to equity. This wipeout may make it difficult to issue any more
         | AT1s, which removes another barrier created in 2008 that was
         | supposed to prevent public bailouts. I am a bit surprised they
         | didn't just convert an payout at the fairly cheap stock price,
         | which it sounds like other regulators are saying they will do?
         | 
         | https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/explainerwh...
        
           | seanhunter wrote:
           | The thing that's interesting about cocos is that research has
           | established that cocos don't really do what they were
           | originally designed for and instead incentivise risk-
           | taking[1] by banks and especially so if the conversion terms
           | protect existing shareholders too much from dilution.
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-
           | pa...
        
           | thechao wrote:
           | The article actually discusses AT1's at length, and pre-
           | addresses all of your arguments. I'm not sure I find Levine's
           | argument 100% compelling -- I mean, we're dealing with a
           | sentiment based sale, not calculating engines -- but I don't
           | think he's as close to wrong as you seem to imply.
        
             | kurthr wrote:
             | I don't have a strong opinion, and simply posted one of the
             | many articles discussing it today. It's definitely water
             | cooler talk, and I wouldn't say it's discussion is really
             | 'at length' or base any significant legal or monetary
             | decisions on it.
             | 
             | edit: If you have Bloomberg Intelligence there's a nice
             | graphic on Additional Tier 1 bonds with Triggers, Loss
             | Absorption, and and Write Up by Issurer. It was known that
             | both UBS and CS were non-recoverable.
        
       | davidw wrote:
       | Is someone going to make a ChatGPT synthesis of Matt Levine's
       | writings?
       | 
       | Imagine you have, like, a writer who is really knowledgeable
       | about a subject, and you have readers who would like to learn
       | about this subject, but also have limited time. And, I mean, the
       | writer is really prolific and sometimes feels almost a bit too
       | verbose. In these kinds of markets, sometimes there is no deal to
       | be struck, and...that's fine? But imagine if there were an
       | intermediary who could summarize the writing in a way more
       | accessible to people who are casually interested.
        
         | OJFord wrote:
         | It was done with GPT3 long before ChatGPT existed (and I'm not
         | sure what the interactive format would add here, once
         | generated?).
         | 
         | It was pretty good, he quoted (and linked to it, was on Twitter
         | iirc) some in a newsletter around the time.
        
         | __derek__ wrote:
         | Who needs ChatGPT? MattLevineBot has existed for the better
         | part of a decade![1]
         | 
         | [1]: https://twitter.com/mattlevinebot
        
         | lxgr wrote:
         | > And, I mean, the writer is really prolific and sometimes
         | feels almost a bit too verbose.
         | 
         | I've honestly never felt this way about Matt Levine's
         | newsletter. He provides a lot of educational context that news
         | articles generally don't, and that to me (other than the
         | excellent writing) is its value - if you get rid of that,
         | what's left?
         | 
         | And just like in any written medium, you are always free to
         | skip sections. How should an LLM make the decision for you
         | whether a given section is relevant or even interesting to you?
        
           | davidw wrote:
           | I realize it's an unpopular opinion, but something about his
           | writing style can feel a bit circuitous at times. This
           | particular one was a bit more direct, but sometimes I find
           | them a bit of a slog. If they weren't really interesting, I
           | simply wouldn't read them. They are, though. That's the
           | dilemma.
        
             | mbesto wrote:
             | I'm really struggling to understand the gripe here.
             | 
             | > If they weren't really interesting, I simply wouldn't
             | read them. They are, though. That's the dilemma.
             | 
             | To provide an analogy: it's almost like you're suggesting
             | someone use technology to take a movie and distill it down
             | into a 60s TikTok video.
        
               | OJFord wrote:
               | I don't agree in this case, but you can absolutely find
               | something interesting yet also think it could be better,
               | in any number of ways but including if it was denser.
        
             | lxgr wrote:
             | It definitely does, but that is exactly the didactic value,
             | I'd argue. Examining the same situation through different
             | lenses in a somewhat verbose way can make things click in a
             | way that a dry and concise statement of facts sometimes
             | can't.
             | 
             | I'm not saying that there are no original ideas in his
             | writing that could be extracted as bullet points, but on
             | average, I think that's not the main reason why people read
             | the column:
             | 
             | If you're a finance pro, you probably come for the ideas
             | and the clever writing; if you're an interested novice, you
             | come for the writing and/or the didactic value. Remove the
             | writing and the didactics, and you're probably left with a
             | very small audience.
        
         | droopyEyelids wrote:
         | Are you confusing the ability to tune a LLM to write in
         | someone's style with the ability to have it understand
         | everything that person understands?
         | 
         | I might be misunderstanding your comment.
        
         | mbesto wrote:
         | Matt Levine's newsletters are valuable for their ability to
         | take very complex news, distill them down into simplified terms
         | and make them witty and entertaining. TL;DR of his writings
         | provide little value here.
         | 
         | > But imagine if there were an intermediary who could summarize
         | the writing in a way more accessible to people who are casually
         | interested.
         | 
         | https://www.axios.com/
        
       | omgomgomgomg wrote:
       | Well, its was worth almost nothing, so there.
       | 
       | There are a couple 1000 people who will be awaiting a salary this
       | or next week, it is a bit a financial pandorras box, but with the
       | properties of a bottomless pit.
       | 
       | In all seriousness, I know a couple cs folks with rather
       | expensive flats and habits, this will not end too good for some
       | of them.
        
         | simonswords82 wrote:
         | If they were on the inside did they not see this coming? I was
         | reading about the incoming demise of CS about 3-4 months ago on
         | WallStreetBets subreddit...
        
       | CatWChainsaw wrote:
       | Earlier this week I started reading both The Panama Papers and
       | _Moneyland_. The hope is that they 'll help make sense of such
       | insensible things.
        
       | indigodaddy wrote:
       | So many good sentences and one-liners just in the first paragraph
       | of this article.
        
         | loeg wrote:
         | Levine is a national treasure. Sign up for the newsletter! He's
         | a phenomenal writer and they are consistently great.
        
       | morninglight wrote:
       | That's what my mother in law said about our baby. HA!
        
       | bitL wrote:
       | Nothing? More like overleveraged $1T that can explode anytime?
       | UBS should have been paid instead to take the CS corpse.
        
         | chaosbolt wrote:
         | 1T$ will never explode and drag it down, it's "QE saved by the
         | state" kind of money, so if UBS is overleveraged, it makes
         | sense to buy Credit Suisse, this way if it all goes to shit
         | they'll blame it on CS and if it doesn't then they got a bank
         | for cheap.
        
           | bitL wrote:
           | OK, if the part of the acquisition agreement with government
           | is "QE if needed", then it makes sense to acquire CS to
           | continue kicking the can forward.
        
             | chaosbolt wrote:
             | >agreement
             | 
             | There is no agreement in my opinion and there never is on
             | QE, but what choice does any government have between "1
             | Trillion loss that can trigger more loss and potentially
             | cause a revolution, a famine, a war, etc..." and "kick it
             | down like those before me did and those after me will do",
             | the can has already been kicked enough times, might as well
             | continue until some genius comes up with a new financial
             | system adapted to the 21st century.
             | 
             | People always expect solutions, sometimes there aren't any
             | that are satisfactory.
             | 
             | The people who added so little value to the market and got
             | so much out of it pulled that money from somewhere, someone
             | built those houses etc... sure war and conquest has helped
             | modern empires like the US, but it can only get you so far
             | before you start risking nuclear armageddon, plus it's
             | really, really, really, evil, kids getting bombed for oil
             | is evil no matter how you put it... the alternative is well
             | crafter financial systems that borrom from the future to
             | spend today, aka QE, your grandkids will pay those
             | interests on that loan the fed printed and lent the
             | treasury, but you will have a more comfortable life.
        
       | pc_edwin wrote:
       | I find this stage of the economic/business cycle to be truly
       | fascinating. A lot of things happen in such a short amount of
       | time that we typically only read about or see in movies
       | 
       | UBS's main calculus is risk, which is why the offer can double in
       | a matter of hours. If the crisis is not stabilised, UBS could
       | potentially be liable for tens of billions and face potential
       | downfall.
       | 
       | This is why UBS needed a guarantee from the Swiss National Bank
       | and a MAC clause to proceed with the deal.
        
       | mojuba wrote:
       | https://archive.is/lddBY
        
       | jacquesm wrote:
       | Interesting reading. The bit that _really_ jumped out at me was
       | this:  "Saudi National Bank -- the Swiss bank's largest
       | shareholder" -> so here we have part of the problem, with all of
       | these banks owning all or some of each other it is no wonder that
       | when one of them gets into trouble the others are immediately
       | discounted on the stock market. Not only do they get indirectly
       | affected because they likely engage in similar practices, they
       | also are interlinked through various stock holdings. And the
       | solution here? More such linkage! Why didn't the Swiss government
       | or the Swiss national bank end up owning it? Instead it is now -
       | again - part of another such complex.
       | 
       | You have to wonder how long it will be before UBS will have to be
       | rescued.
       | 
       | Another random thought: If even the Swiss can't keep it together
       | financially we're in real trouble.
        
         | twblalock wrote:
         | > If even the Swiss can't keep it together financially we're in
         | real trouble.
         | 
         | The Swiss banking industry has been overrated for a long time.
         | 
         | In this case it's not like a competent, sensibly run bank
         | failed. Credit Suisse had a track record of being pretty
         | terrible.
        
           | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
           | Not just pretty terrible, but criminal and corrupt pretty
           | terrible.
           | 
           | https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/from-cocaine-money-
           | laun...
        
             | actionablefiber wrote:
             | "Crime doesn't pay" - Credit Suisse, probably
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _Why didn 't the Swiss government or the Swiss national bank
         | end up owning it?_
         | 
         | The Swiss don't want to own half a trillion francs of
         | specialised liabilities. There is zero precedent for a
         | nationalised investment bank of all things.
        
           | umeshunni wrote:
           | > There is zero precedent for a nationalised investment bank
           | of all things.
           | 
           | Aren't large state holding companies and sovereign wealth
           | funds (Norway, Singapore, ME/Gulf countries) a special case
           | of national investment banks?
        
         | VLM wrote:
         | That's another common Matt Levine (the article author) theme
         | that very large index funds are a weird form of insider
         | trading.
         | 
         | I subscribe to his email mailing list which is literally his
         | articles from the website without the infinite ads and
         | requirement for registration and subscription.
        
           | crazygringo wrote:
           | Is there a good article of his to start with on that?
           | 
           | I've never heard of that theme and I'm intrigued.
        
             | tedunangst wrote:
             | https://ritholtz.com/2020/07/should-index-funds-be-
             | illegal-2...
        
             | HDThoreaun wrote:
             | Can't find it because he has so many articles but there was
             | one that talks about how ESG makes sense from an index fund
             | owning oil point of view because it's an excuse for the
             | fund managers to basically coordinate collusion among the
             | oil companies. If they all have the same shareholders then
             | those shareholders can tell of them to produce less oil and
             | the price will increase. The usual concern of defecting is
             | taken care of because of the collusion. If one of the
             | companies doesn't produce less the fund managers can vote
             | them out for not being "ESG" enough.
        
         | Silverback_VII wrote:
         | >Another random thought: If even the Swiss can't keep it
         | together financially we're in real trouble.
         | 
         | The Swiss government(and the SNB) could have easily saved
         | Credit Suisse, but the politicians lacked the backbone to do
         | so. They panicked at the first sign of trouble. Saving the bank
         | was important for Switzerland's image in the financial world,
         | but it seems that they no longer care about their own country.
         | 
         | By letting a 167-year-old bank fail instead of simply buying it
         | for 16 billion, they lost a lot of trust.
        
           | 988747 wrote:
           | [dead]
        
           | kwere wrote:
           | CS is a branding liability, the trust in the name is abysmal,
           | as withdrawals shows
        
           | qwytw wrote:
           | Well they could just bought the brand name then? The rest of
           | the balance sheet doesen't seem to be worth that much when
           | you balance everything and the executives were clearly a huge
           | net negative...
        
         | rossdavidh wrote:
         | I'm no expert in the field, but my understanding is that CS
         | was, in fact, rather too big for the nation of Switzerland to
         | bail out. Their two biggest banks (CS and UBS) do an awful lot
         | of non-Swiss business, so that is possible for them in a way
         | that it would not be for a nation like the U.S.A. So, they made
         | UBS take it (all accounts are that UBS was not interested until
         | the Swiss government told them that yes they were interested).
         | 
         | Also, UBS has more skill at running a bank than the Swiss
         | government, although arguably the Swiss government might have
         | had more skill at running a bank than Credit Suisse.
        
         | cm2187 wrote:
         | "all these banks owning each others": Which other banks? This
         | is fairly unusual as the capital treatment of equity ownership
         | is very punitive. Banks shareholders typically aren't banks.
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | That quote isn't what I wrote. And the relevant bank is
           | mentioned just prior to the bit you quoted. And now they have
           | a new shareholder: UBS. Which is also a bank.
        
         | pulse7 wrote:
         | > Why didn't the Swiss government or the Swiss national bank
         | end up owning it?
         | 
         | This was the plan B which would happen if UBS would reject the
         | deal.
        
         | paganel wrote:
         | > If even the Swiss can't keep it together financially we're in
         | real trouble.
         | 
         | Eventually all financialized systems go the way of the dodo
         | bird.
         | 
         | The Republic of Genoa is the classic example for this, as they
         | had made their fortunes via trade (including slave trade)
         | starting with the 1200s, but by the 1500s almost all of their
         | wealth-creation had started to rely on providing "financial"
         | services. And then they crashed. I'm also of the opinion that
         | the UK's problems are caused by the same phenomenon, that's why
         | they have never quite recovered from the 2008-2010 global
         | financial crisis.
         | 
         | Afaik Switzerland is not yet a fully financialized economic
         | system but it's certainly up there. The future will be
         | interesting for them.
        
           | karmakurtisaani wrote:
           | Finance and investing is largely based on trust in the
           | future. I wonder if a long enough period of stability makes
           | us too comfortable with taking risk and bad investments, only
           | to expose us to massive downside far enough down the line.
           | Then the inevitable black swan event happens, and
           | finance/investment based wealth gets wiped out.
           | 
           | It doesn't help that the mind set a successful trader or
           | banker needs is how to maximize their own net worth - not how
           | to build a long term stable and profitable business.
        
             | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
             | "Finance and investing" are basically just gambling. You
             | might as well bet on horses, dogs, cards, or crypto.
             | 
             | Money is neither a thing nor a limited resource. Money is a
             | political tool certain groups use to ration power and
             | accountability. It _used_ to be based on scarce objects,
             | but now it 's pure abstraction.
             | 
             | An important part of that is making sure insiders have
             | special opportunities and backstops most of us don't. For
             | the real insiders it's a rigged house. And for the most
             | inside of the insiders it's impossible to lose more than
             | token amounts.
             | 
             | You can be sure that whatever happens to banking, there
             | will be people whose gambles will somehow miraculously be
             | made whole while the rest of us are told "Oh dear, suddenly
             | there is no money. Again."
        
       | sschueller wrote:
       | The Swiss are extremely pissed. They spent a lot of capital and
       | time to put up the to big to fail laws which this bank met yet it
       | still failed.
       | 
       | CS paid over 32 Billion in bonuses since 2013![1] Meanwhile
       | people aren't getting paid more to balance the inflation.
       | 
       | I also see a lot of US blaming going around specifically because
       | of the capital regulations that the EU and Switzerland put in
       | place since 2008 and supposedly the US did not. Also supposedly
       | profited over them because they did not need to meet as strict of
       | capital requirements. I don't hear much about SVB however.
       | 
       | The news has also reported that the Swiss government wanted to
       | let the US branch of CS fail but there was enormous pressure from
       | the US to prevent this.
       | 
       | There are a lot of details of this deal that aren't clear yet but
       | I do have the feeling everyone here more or less agrees this was
       | the only option. The focus seems to be on why it came to this
       | situation in the first place. There is also a push from some
       | parties for a government investigation.
       | 
       | I also expect the next pension law adjustment coming up to have a
       | very hard time after all this.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.blick.ch/politik/trotz-hilfe-vom-staat-darum-
       | sol...
       | 
       | Edit: Spelling
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | gruez wrote:
         | >CS paid over 32 Billion in bonuses since 2013![1] Meanwhile
         | people aren't getting paid more to balance the inflation.
         | 
         | It's worth noting that in certain industries, bonuses make up a
         | fair chunk of total comp and are _expected_. They should
         | therefore be thought of as being closer to employee
         | compensation than some sort of extraordinary reward.
        
           | rcme wrote:
           | Yes, but in banking, government bailouts have also come to be
           | expected. Clearly the public should consider bailouts and fat
           | profits and bonuses as fundamentally incompatible.
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | >bailouts and fat profits and bonuses as fundamentally
             | incompatible.
             | 
             | I noticed you specifically called out "bonuses" but not
             | salaries or wages, implying that bonuses are bad but
             | salaries and wages are not. However, as I pointed out, the
             | bonuses should effectively be counted as wages because
             | they're expected.
        
               | rcme wrote:
               | I also said fat profits, which generally encompasses all
               | business activity.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _spent a lot of capital and time to put up the to big to fail
         | laws which this bank met yet it still failed_
         | 
         | At a marginal CHF 9 billion contingent senior taxpayer expense.
         | Not great. But being able to tank $17bn of AT1s was $17bn UBS
         | won't have to raise and Bern won't have to finance.
        
         | 0xDEF wrote:
         | >I also see a lot of US blaming going around
         | 
         | Social media has spread East German boomer anti-Americanism to
         | the rest of the German-speaking world.
         | 
         | Today countries like Austria, Switzerland and Germany are full
         | of people who will blame bad weather on the US.
        
           | TeMPOraL wrote:
           | > _Today countries like Austria, Switzerland and Germany are
           | full of people who will blame bad weather on the US._
           | 
           | Obviously, if anyone has a weather control system today, it's
           | the US - specifically, either the CIA or the DOD. I mean,
           | this is what the TV has been telling us for the past 50+
           | years.
           | 
           | This is the flip side of Hollywood being the cultural
           | propaganda arm of the USA. You have to take the good with the
           | bad!
        
             | throwway120385 wrote:
             | You should see our mind control system.
        
               | roundandround wrote:
               | Of course to show them to you we would have to shut them
               | off.
        
           | Silverback_VII wrote:
           | The Germans are losing their industry because someone blew up
           | a pipeline. who knows, maybe it has something to do with
           | that?
        
             | hsjqllzlfkf wrote:
             | I'm an European person and generally mildly suspicious of
             | American govs intentions. Nevertheless, in this case I do
             | hope they blew up the pipeline, because Germany lack of
             | action towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an absolute
             | stain for Europe.
        
             | B1FF_PSUVM wrote:
             | Worse than that, they were roping in Russia - more
             | successfully than in the past eight centuries - and those
             | economic ties were blown worse than the pipeline.
        
               | dralley wrote:
               | Those economic ties were broken the moment Russia started
               | threatening to cut off the gas unless Germany did what
               | they wanted, which took about 3 days and escalated over
               | the next several months. It has been transparently clear
               | for a decade that Germany was the one being "roped" by
               | Russia, not the one "roping" Russia.
        
               | Swenrekcah wrote:
               | Putin has been invading his neighbours since 2008 and
               | finally launched a full scale war.
               | 
               | How would you say that is "roping in Russia"?
        
             | dralley wrote:
             | The Germans made a series of bad decisions despite being
             | warned for years by not just the US, but also half their
             | neighbors, and basic common sense.
             | 
             | At the point the pipeline was blown up, Russia had already
             | essentially cut off the flow with their "oh dear, the
             | turbine seems to be malfunctioning" antics.
        
               | cronix wrote:
               | US: Hey Germany, you shouldn't be so reliant on Russian
               | NG/Oil (buy ours instead)
               | 
               | Germany: We're ok, thank you for your concern
               | 
               | Russia: cuts back NG/Oil going through pipelines to
               | Germany
               | 
               | US: Let's just make that permanent. Germany doesn't know
               | what's good for itself. Boom. Hey Germany, now that you
               | can't get it from Russia, would you like to buy some of
               | ours? We've been telling you, ahem, warning you, for
               | years, friend.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | That's conspiracist talk, pipelines blow up by themselves
             | all the time.
             | 
             | There is no plausible way that the party that's both eager
             | to export LNG, and has a geopolitical interest in seeing
             | Germany distance itself from Russia (without getting cold
             | feet when the winter starts, and everyone actually gets
             | cold feet) had anything to do with it.
        
             | cpursley wrote:
             | When the US says jump, Germany asks: how high?
        
           | realworldperson wrote:
           | [dead]
        
         | Silverback_VII wrote:
         | >I do have the feeling everyone here more or less agrees this
         | was the only option.
         | 
         | It was certainly not the only option. The Swiss seem to bury
         | everything that was once important to them. They are not truly
         | neutral anymore, and now they have let one of their oldest
         | banks fail. The image of Switzerland as being a place of
         | stability and smart decisions takes a big hit.
        
           | thrown123098 wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
             | QuercusMax wrote:
             | I bet you think SVB failed because they were too "woke" as
             | well, right?
        
               | formerly_proven wrote:
               | The comment is sarcastically referencing GPs "the Swiss
               | seem to bury everything that was once important to them".
        
               | thrown123098 wrote:
               | The worst thing about the new left is how lame they made
               | being left. 30 years ago we would have had illegal raves
               | during the lockdowns. Today we had illegal church
               | services.
               | 
               | What the tuck is wrong with these people?
        
         | belter wrote:
         | Swiss press of today, mentions Credit Suisse are still planning
         | to pay their Bankers Bonus before the deal concludes...
        
         | curiousllama wrote:
         | > suppository profited
         | 
         | I think you mean supposedly
        
           | aussiegreenie wrote:
           | No, I think he/she meant Swiss Taxpayers have had things
           | shoved up their bottom.
        
             | tannhaeuser wrote:
             | I think you mean showed up in their bottom?
        
       | MichaelZuo wrote:
       | I'm surprised Matt Levine would write a somewhat clickbaity
       | title.
       | 
       | If the net equity value of Credit Suisse was very low or perhaps
       | even negative, depending on the accounting, then UBS in fact paid
       | quite a high price because of all the liabilities.
        
         | kgwgk wrote:
         | "You can, on the internet, find various expressions of
         | astonishment that a bank as old and important as Credit Suisse
         | turned out to be worth only $3 billion.[3] But this is, I
         | think, the wrong way to look at it. Credit Suisse is not worth
         | $3 billion; it is worth half a trillion dollars, more or
         | less.[4] It's just that virtually all of that value -- more
         | than 99% of it -- belongs to its creditors."
        
           | MichaelZuo wrote:
           | Is there some additional meaning you want to convey by
           | reposting this quote?
        
         | mey wrote:
         | Considering Credit Suisse's litigation history, (
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_Suisse#Controversies ), I
         | would be surprised if their liabilities are limited to just the
         | balance sheet.
        
           | _nalply wrote:
           | And that's why UBS not only paid not a lot but also got a
           | guarantee from the Swiss National Bank for about, I don't
           | know, perhaps 100 billion Swiss francs.
        
             | eloff wrote:
             | It was 9 billion. UBS is on the hook for the first five
             | billion in losses, the Swiss National Bank for the next
             | nine, and UBS anything else above that.
        
               | OJFord wrote:
               | Is that a common structure? Seems a bit odd to me to want
               | a backer for the middle bit, but I suppose be so
               | confident that it won't be worse than that that you're
               | happy with the tail?
        
               | ot wrote:
               | Yes, every insurance works like that: deductible, then
               | coverage, then you're on the hook again.
        
               | OJFord wrote:
               | True! Good point. Assuming it's the same in this kind of
               | deal as insurance I'm familiar with then, it's just..
               | yeah, ideally you wouldn't, but you can't get (well, I
               | suppose there's a price..?) someone to take _all_ your
               | risk, so you just beat it down to some acceptable level
               | that you can 't imagine needing more than.
        
         | weinzierl wrote:
         | Negative, and likely with a non-negligible value. From what I
         | understand the acquisition came with considerable state
         | guarantees given to UBS for Credit Swisses liabilities. To a
         | degree that I have heard it called a disguised bailout.
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | I doubt he did write the title, aren't editors usually
         | responsible for titles. Which is unfortunate because the
         | article's title is Betteridge's law without a question mark.
         | 
         | Credit Suisse has a half trillion in deposits (aka
         | liabilities), so UBS paid a half trillion dollars for Credit
         | Suisse, minus the hard to value assets of Credit Suisse.
        
           | OJFord wrote:
           | Recent titles include:
           | 
           | - _Credit Suisse Puts On a Brave Face_
           | 
           | - _Silicon Valley Bank Is For Sale_
           | 
           | - _Crypto Bank Had a Boring Collapse_
           | 
           | - _Goldman Wants to Be More Boring_
           | 
           | - _AMC Apes Hate AMC 's APEs_
           | 
           | ... He writes them.
           | 
           | (And How I Wish He'd Drop The BuzzFeed-Style Casing)
        
             | loeg wrote:
             | > And How I Wish He'd Drop The BuzzFeed-Style Casing
             | 
             | Isn't it just conventional Title Case? Or are you objecting
             | to capitalizing some particular words?
        
               | OJFord wrote:
               | It may be more conventional in the US. But yes,
               | _especially_ on words like  'be', & 'its' makes it read
               | very 'Oh My God You Will Not Believe These 6 Reasons ...'
               | to me.
        
               | telotortium wrote:
               | Nope, both of those are usually capitalized in title
               | case. Only articles and prepositions are lowercased.
        
               | OJFord wrote:
               | Like I said, this may be conventional _in the US_.
               | 
               | https://www.bbc.co.uk/
               | 
               | https://www.thetimes.co.uk/
               | 
               | https://www.theguardian.com/
        
               | tedunangst wrote:
               | Be is a verb. It is capitalized in titles.
        
               | OJFord wrote:
               | Like I said, this may be conventional _in the US_.
               | 
               | https://www.bbc.co.uk/
               | 
               | https://www.thetimes.co.uk/
               | 
               | https://www.theguardian.com/
        
           | loeg wrote:
           | He writes his own titles; Money Stuff is a newsletter he
           | enjoys substantial editorial control over. It's not an
           | ordinary article or op ed at a news outlet.
        
           | riffraff wrote:
           | I'm pretty sure he writes his own titles in this case, this
           | is a very personal column/newsletter, the titles are often
           | references to previous things he mentioned and so on, a
           | random title editor would not be up to par.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | indigodaddy wrote:
         | He explains that $3B is almost nothing in the context of the
         | deal and situation. It makes sense as you read the article.
        
         | cm2187 wrote:
         | On paper, UBS gets 35bn of CET1 + 16bn from the AT1 write off,
         | for 3bn.
         | 
         | You would have to believe the assets are massively mismarked
         | for this to be off. I am not aware that it is the claim made
         | against CS. The claim against CS I understand is not being able
         | to turn a profit and large mishaps. Not the same thing as a bad
         | book.
        
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