[HN Gopher] Yes, you should still learn to code
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Yes, you should still learn to code
        
       Author : japhyr
       Score  : 72 points
       Date   : 2023-03-18 00:33 UTC (22 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (mostlypython.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (mostlypython.substack.com)
        
       | drvdevd wrote:
       | As someone who is both a developer and currently occasionally
       | uses GPT in the course of development, I skimmed this article
       | looking for the one point I think there is to make on this
       | subject.
       | 
       | I think the opposite of what people are worrying about will
       | happen here. AI will create a feedback loop for developers, where
       | there just aren't enough humans to keep up with the work -
       | exacerbating the existing problem of a shortage.
       | 
       | For me, LLMs can essentially replace large portions of my
       | workflow: stack overflow, googling for examples, finding some
       | obscure syntax, getting started on a problem when I'm coming from
       | a place of little understanding. Assuming I ask the right
       | questions in the right order and get the output running, it can
       | drastically reduce my time to a working solution.
       | 
       | This is the same thing previous tools have done, but with a
       | faster and tighter feedback loop. That will just amplify the
       | primary pattern of software: with every solution we create new
       | problems to solve. And every new abstraction has some hidden
       | cost.
       | 
       | Mark my words: our near future problem as engineers is not that
       | we can't get jobs, it's that we can't fill them all. We will most
       | likely find ourselves desperately chasing automation that never
       | quite gets as automated as we need it to be.
       | 
       | Of course this is both good and bad. But it means that like this
       | author, we need to encourage everyone possible to "learn to code"
       | in some sense.
        
         | tobr wrote:
         | On the other hand, if it replaces large parts of your workflow,
         | that means your work is now very different. It will perhaps be
         | more about making strategic decisions, less about implementing
         | the details. So depending on what type of work you are good at
         | and enjoy, it can be a good or a bad thing.
        
           | mypastself wrote:
           | I have a similar take. I suspect at some stage "software
           | development" will mean feeding business requirements (with
           | some degree of precision) into the algorithm and letting it
           | handle logic, resource provisioning etc. The last traditional
           | programming jobs to go will be legacy software for critical
           | infrastructure, defense, and financial institutions.
           | 
           | Communication skills and business domain knowledge will
           | become far more important than what we consider "tech skills"
           | today.
           | 
           | I doubt the world's appetite for software will decline even
           | when one person manages to develop in a day what used to take
           | a team of people months. We'll have a lot more work to do,
           | and a lot more people will join the field.
           | 
           | However, on average, it might become a much less lucrative
           | and prestigious profession.
        
             | comfypotato wrote:
             | I agree with the other comment responding to you. Consider
             | SQL. A typical select statement with a join and a sort
             | would have taken a team of people months to implement in an
             | application-specific proprietary data-storage structure
             | (perhaps a red black tree). Now it's a trivial line of SQL.
             | Like the top comment said, this has not eliminated those
             | teams' jobs.
        
               | mypastself wrote:
               | Interesting you should mention SQL, because a lot of non-
               | tech business people I've met have rudimentary SQL skills
               | nowadays. Database administration is a dying field.
        
               | comfypotato wrote:
               | I was speaking of the engineering teams that existed
               | before database administration was formalized as a field
               | at all. Mainframe, batch processing, and written in C:
               | proprietary company-specific applications.
               | 
               | Analogously, it may not be long before crud websites are
               | created, end to end, by non-tech people with mostly
               | natural language.
               | 
               | That being said, today's crud web developers won't be out
               | of work. Their experience writing/designing code will be
               | put to use in more complex, potentially yet-unseen
               | applications.
        
               | ltrojanowski wrote:
               | The one difference I see is that SQL is still predictable
               | in it's output. I don't think feeding requirements into
               | an AI is at that state yet
        
               | yunohn wrote:
               | +1 Predictability and rigour are crucial IMHO.
        
             | yunohn wrote:
             | > I suspect at some stage "software development" will mean
             | feeding business requirements (with some degree of
             | precision) into the algorithm and letting it handle
             | 
             | That's just a higher level programming language... And we
             | all know that it doesn't solve things.
        
               | mypastself wrote:
               | It actually does solve a lot things, in the sense that
               | there's a lower barrier for entry. A lot of lower-level
               | programming skills are being abstracted away and
               | obsoleted. My prediction may be wrong, but it's based on
               | the extrapolation of the trends you're referring to.
        
               | yunohn wrote:
               | High level languages like Python abstract away boring
               | specifics like memory management and implantation data
               | structures.
               | 
               | Natural language programming via GPT instead abstracts
               | away the actual functioning.
               | 
               | I've seen colleagues use snippets from chatGPT that are
               | horrendously inefficient despite being "simple" prompts.
               | They look fine at first glance, but work only 50% of the
               | time.
        
               | mypastself wrote:
               | Oh, there's no doubt this particular AI software is
               | flawed. But I don't think there's anything inherent to AI
               | that renders it unable to master specific frameworks or
               | algorithms in future iterations. The timeframe is up in
               | the air, though.
        
               | yunohn wrote:
               | I'm not convinced it's an AI quality problem - rather,
               | the difficulty of translating natural language into
               | machine requirements. This is an age-old problem, not
               | even restricted to Computer Science.
        
           | ChatGTP wrote:
           | Don't forget that most companies want us to actually do more,
           | there's pretty much infinite creativity available. Faster and
           | cheaper code delivery will probably lead to more code , more
           | moonshot ideas to be involved in, more scaling issues,
           | security issues and on and on.
           | 
           | There will now be more competition of course, more LLMs to
           | build and maintain. More features to keep up with etc.
           | 
           | Also AI safety jobs will become more of a thing, could just
           | be getting started.
           | 
           | ...or it's the end of all work!!!!!!
        
         | 0xGod wrote:
         | This assessment is correct. Many more engineers will be needed.
         | Far more than exist right now. There is a lot of work to do.
         | There could be innovation in products and services...more
         | products, more services, more innovation, for another 1,000
         | years.
        
         | tpoacher wrote:
         | The problem isn't how you, an engineer, perceives the tool
         | could be useful.
         | 
         | The problem is how your CEO, not an engineer, perceives the
         | tool could be useful.
        
           | xboxnolifes wrote:
           | If it's a real problem, it'll only be a temporary one that
           | eventually self-corrects.
        
           | elforce002 wrote:
           | This. I asked a question regarding this on a forum and I got
           | downvoted to oblivion just because I said a manager/CTO/CEO
           | could see this as an opportunity to lay off people, cut
           | salaries, etc...
        
             | Teever wrote:
             | Maybe those laid off people can start a business that
             | replaces the CEO/CTO with an AI.
        
             | mrbombastic wrote:
             | I am skeptical that this will happen but if it does it
             | seems to me it will still be a short term situation. I
             | don't believe the world's need for software, especially
             | high quality software, is anywhere near met. There are many
             | problems waiting to be solved with software that just
             | aren't due to cost or time of implementation. The outcome
             | will be more software and more complex software, you may as
             | an individual engineer be expected to manage and produce
             | more software then before but the demand for software
             | engineers will not be reduced because all of the sudden
             | there is much more software in the world.
        
           | furyofantares wrote:
           | Alright, then I'll be the CEO.
        
           | credit_guy wrote:
           | Reality has a way to make itself perceived at some point.
        
         | Madmallard wrote:
         | Where's the shortage of engineering? Tech companies nearly
         | universally (outside like Defense) are laying off huge swaths
         | of developers.
        
           | carlmr wrote:
           | It's always been a shortage of firms willing to pay the
           | appropriate amount.
           | 
           | When you pay enough the talent pool is endless.
        
           | drvdevd wrote:
           | This is true but this doesn't imply those companies couldn't
           | still use those engineers in _some_ capacity but rather they
           | have decided to cut the cost of employing them.
           | 
           | Universally, software is so flawed and yet so fundamental to
           | modern life, there is certainly a possibility for everyone to
           | contribute but not necessarily funding to pay them for their
           | work.
        
       | broast wrote:
       | Learn to read code that you didn't write
        
       | ojbyrne wrote:
       | I found myself thinking that yes, you should still learn to code,
       | but no you probably shouldn't bother to write blog posts about
       | why you should still learn to code.
        
         | politician wrote:
         | That's right, use ChatGPT to write the blog posts.
        
       | LeoPanthera wrote:
       | Honesty I think tools like GPT are going to cause _more_ people
       | to learn to code, not less.
       | 
       | I've been using GPT to write very simple utilities in languages I
       | am unfamiliar with, and for me, there's no faster way to pick up
       | a language then to see an example program where you already know
       | exactly what it does.
       | 
       | (Or is supposed to do, finding the small mistakes that GPT
       | sometimes makes also helps learn things, ironically.)
        
         | famahar wrote:
         | ChatGPT has made me enjoy making games again. Trying to do
         | something specific in Unity usually meant having to sift
         | through old outdated forums or long videos. Now I can prototype
         | ideas just by asking. Can't wait until this is built into Unity
         | so it can assist with more than just code. Something like
         | RunwayML but for game engines.
        
         | shaunkoh wrote:
         | Yes exactly. I had a specific project in mind, and ChatGPT was
         | able to give me step by step instructions how to build it. It's
         | like having a private tutor. That's transformative for folks
         | like me that struggle to get through generic 12 week courses,
         | but want their learning experience scaffolded around a project
         | they're already motivated to work on.
        
         | HervalFreire wrote:
         | I mean you're ignoring an obvious trend. These LLMs are
         | improving rapidly.
         | 
         | If the improvement continues, the LLMs can reach a point in
         | skill where they can replace us. Your statement and this
         | article is gambling on the status quo. That humans will always
         | be better then AI.
         | 
         | Why is this causing so much of a ruckus right now? Pretty much
         | everyone knows chatGPT is pretty stupid when compared to a
         | human.
         | 
         | It's causing a ruckus because it's a herald for a possible
         | future where the AI becomes superior to human problem solving.
         | 
         | It's not a unrealistic proposition given that chess AI and go
         | AI has already surpassed us.
        
         | croes wrote:
         | Do people learn more languages since translation tools exist?
        
           | saurik wrote:
           | I don't think that analogy works as it isn't about learning
           | languages so much as knowing how to write (but I also can't
           | quite fix the analogy, sadly).
           | 
           | A better one (but one which doesn't leave software
           | engineering): as programming languages have gotten easier to
           | use and tooling has gotten better making programmers more
           | effective, more programmers have been needed to write ever
           | more code despite them all having to expend much less effort
           | if they were to merely do the same things... because, and
           | this is key, the tooling now allowance people to tackle ever
           | more complicated problems leading to new things that can be
           | achieved.
        
             | croes wrote:
             | I think it fits because ChatGPT writes code for you like
             | DeepL and Google Translate translates for you.
             | 
             | Easier tooling is more like programms like Duolingo and
             | Babbel.
             | 
             | If you totally trust the former you don't need to learn
             | anything, the latter enforces to do something on your own.
        
               | saurik wrote:
               | Google Translate is translating for me, but it isn't
               | reading for me. I think more people bother to both read
               | and write more content of higher importance because of
               | the existence of Google Translate, as it allows people of
               | every language to have a wider audience and to waste less
               | of their effort on translations of their content.
               | 
               | And that's where it is a complex analogy for me to use
               | and fix, because I get what you are wanting to point at,
               | and yet it doesn't seem like the relevant thing to
               | measure.
               | 
               | I believe that large language models automatically
               | writing code will result in many more programs existing
               | of much higher complexity and I simply do not see how
               | that is going to result in _fewer_ software developers.
               | 
               | I do believe it will change how we do this job and the
               | level of scale and abstraction we are dealing with, but
               | if you think that the world of post-AI software is going
               | to involve a bunch of people building stuff that looks as
               | simple as it is today in 2023 just without software
               | developers I think you are going to be surprised, as
               | frankly you don't need a software developer at all to
               | build most marketing websites people need--we solved that
               | problem years ago with WYSIWYG tooling--and yet somehow
               | every marketing website is now more complicated than ever
               | before because the goalposts moved.
               | 
               | Imagine when every single thing you interact with is
               | going to be some crazy 3D environment with animated
               | characters providing immersive abuse^Hengagement designed
               | to close the deal. Sure, you could just generate a static
               | website for your project but that's _so_ early 2020s it
               | hurts, right?
               | 
               | And yeah: the team that builds that might be doing a ton
               | of development using AIs but it isn't going to be just
               | "outsource it to the AI" until the AI gets smart enough
               | to replace us entirely and at that point we probably only
               | have a few more years of being alive anyway ;P.
        
               | croes wrote:
               | >I simply do not see how that is going to result in fewer
               | software developers.
               | 
               | One simple reason: demand. If software developing is more
               | than a hobby you need to get paid, and ChatGPT will be
               | cheaper than entry level programmers, so it will be hard
               | to get entry level jobs and the experience to reach the
               | next level while getting paid.
        
       | kebsup wrote:
       | Increased productivity of a single developer -> less demand for
       | developers More AI based companies and products -> more demand
       | for developers Not sure which force is stronger.
        
       | gnicholas wrote:
       | It's true that it would be helpful to be able to troubleshoot the
       | code output of AI chatbots. What I've heard from friends is that
       | ChatGPT is pretty good at troubleshooting itself -- not
       | automatically, but if you re-enter buggy output, it can often
       | correctly suggest how to fix the bug. This won't always be the
       | case, but it does seem to undercut the argument that humans are
       | always needed to fix bigs. There may be other reasons, like
       | optimization, that are more compelling. Or it's possible that AI
       | will be good at that as well!
        
       | HervalFreire wrote:
       | This post is speculative. We're only 4 months into seeing the
       | potential of LLMs with huge sets of training data.
       | 
       | 4 months... that's it.
       | 
       | Wait 5 years, and during that time we'll know whether or not it's
       | worth it to know programming. Maybe not even 5 years, give it 2
       | years.
        
         | jcijcijc wrote:
         | Maybe we're 2 months away from the singularity or 200 years.
         | Who knows? Until then you should be paralyzed with fear. Don't
         | get comfortable!
        
           | HervalFreire wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
         | SanderNL wrote:
         | GPT3 is from 2020. I know ChatGPT is slightly novel, but let's
         | not exaggerate.
        
           | HervalFreire wrote:
           | I'm talking about the recent acceleration of changes,
           | chatGPT, dall e, midjourney.
           | 
           | chatGPT and dall-e put fuel on the fire. Interest has spiked
           | and additionally the industry and academia is matching the
           | trend with an equivalent refocus of research efforts.
           | 
           | No exaggeration here to say "we don't know what will happen"
        
             | SanderNL wrote:
             | Dall-E was a few months later. I don't want to be obtuse,
             | but I am into this topic for quite a while and progress is
             | actually kind of slow to me. Society is still hung up on
             | (to me) minor and extremely uninteresting issues.
             | 
             | I'm getting tired of the "losing jobs" narrative. GPT4 is a
             | worse coder than 3. What I'd like to see is some discussion
             | about this tech disrupting the need for "leadership" and
             | bullshit executives. IMO vast swaths of elites - GPTs
             | tendency to hallucinate makes it the perfect politician -
             | are becoming obsolete as their opinion and influence is no
             | longer interesting / necessary. This, of course, will not
             | happen. We will only replace workers, the rest will be
             | fine. We won't even talk about it.
             | 
             | Sorry for the detour and unsubstantiated rant. I deserve
             | the downvotes. Taking the hit for the socialist team here.
        
       | croes wrote:
       | If ChatGPT had existed 20 years ago, things like React would
       | never have been developed and all websites would still be using
       | nested tables for layout.
        
         | gumballindie wrote:
         | > things like React would never have been developed
         | 
         | Not entirely sure that would have been a negative outcome.
         | React is horrible.
        
           | eyelidlessness wrote:
           | I don't particularly like React, but I don't think it's
           | horrible either. I also think it has introduced a lot of
           | important concepts to a space that wasn't particularly
           | predisposed to them. It's an overall good, even if it's not
           | my preference.
        
           | akiselev wrote:
           | _> Not entirely sure that would have been a negative outcome.
           | React is horrible. _
           | 
           | Oh sweet summer child. It's ancestors were so much worse.
           | They had to deal with _Microsoft Internet Explorer_
           | 
           |  _jQuery_. _bootstrap_. And if that doesn 't strike fear in
           | your heart, _ANGULAR!_
        
             | mock-possum wrote:
             | Aw come on jQuery was fun! Remember those big long chained
             | commands? Remember how suddenly you could just select
             | anything off the page, using cas selectors? Remember how
             | much easier ajax and animation and dom manipulation and
             | events were with jQuery?
        
             | gumballindie wrote:
             | These tools you mention are worse but that doesnt mean
             | react is great. The two statements dont negate each other.
        
             | chrischattin wrote:
             | Hard disagree. Front end development was an order of
             | magnitude easier better faster before FB pushed React into
             | the dev mindspace.
        
               | arrow7000 wrote:
               | No one is stopping you from going back to jQuery. But
               | there's a reason the world moved on to React and others
        
               | chrischattin wrote:
               | I _always_ use sprinkles of jQuery over React
               | /Angular/Front End Framework de jour if given the choice.
        
               | gumballindie wrote:
               | The main reasons being facebook's popularity and herd
               | mentality.
        
               | arrow7000 wrote:
               | You think that's the only reason React took off? Have you
               | ever tried to build a complex web application using only
               | jQuery?
        
               | chrischattin wrote:
               | Yeah, I've done it many times successfully, drag and drop
               | interfaces, form builders, dynamic form inputs,
               | animations, etc. It's 10x easier with vanilla JS and
               | sprinklings of jQuery.
               | 
               | Believe it or not, gmail was a much faster cleaner better
               | interface before they switched to Angular, and FB worked
               | much better and was way less buggy and slow before they
               | switched to React. The reason the mega-caps pushed their
               | use was to offload processing power to the client, which
               | saves them server costs. Front end JS frameworks don't
               | solve a problem almost every other company has, hence why
               | they had to be pushed by FB/Google, and didn't grow
               | organically from the open source community.
        
               | fulafel wrote:
               | It seems to me that Facebook has put out many many open
               | source libraries, but React is the only one that has
               | taken off in a bigway outside FB. People generally
               | scoffed at FB technically since they were built on PHP.
               | 
               | I think bringing the functional programming approach and
               | princinpled state management to frontend was just
               | something that the time was ripe for.
               | 
               | (Also React was much different back then, before hooks,
               | etc).
        
         | EamonnMR wrote:
         | If ChatGPT existed 47 years ago programming as we know it never
         | would have been invented, and we'd just ask our room sized
         | tabulation machines to kindly do payroll.
        
         | eyelidlessness wrote:
         | I don't have a dog in the AI fight, but it seems pretty
         | plausible that React's core concepts would have been part of a
         | hypothetical 20 years ago training set. All of these were part
         | of at least academic discourse:
         | 
         | - Algebraic effects
         | 
         | - DSLs designed to be expressive and statically analyzable
         | 
         | - [Thing] as a function of state (I'm not sure how much this
         | was applied to UI specifically, but if I had to take a wild
         | guess, probably)
         | 
         | - Abstraction of declarative definitions from computational
         | instructions
         | 
         | If anything, I think a declarative UI model could have come
         | much sooner if there weren't such deep investment in other
         | techniques. Not that a hypothetical AI of the time would have
         | arrived at that, but I definitely think it had enough training
         | material to go on.
        
         | gnicholas wrote:
         | ...or ChatGPT would have come up with something like/better
         | than React, and we/it would be using that now.
        
           | croes wrote:
           | That's not what generative AI does because it produces test
           | that most like fit the prompt.
           | 
           | The probability for new concepts for any prompt is near zero.
        
           | medellin wrote:
           | Has AI produced any novel technology yet that it wasn't
           | trained to do?
        
             | LesZedCB wrote:
             | I feel like the fact this question is being asked in plain
             | seriousness _4 months_ after the technology was made
             | publicly available /known to the general public sends a
             | different message than you meant.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | californical wrote:
               | Pretty sure they were asking rhetorically, because the
               | answer is obviously not, since that's not how LLMs work
        
               | medellin wrote:
               | Yes. Although over text it sometimes doesn't come
               | through.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | gnicholas wrote:
             | GP's hypo said "20 years ago". I assume that in 20 years,
             | AI will have created things more impressive than React.
        
               | croes wrote:
               | But ChatGPT doesn't create new texts it remixes pre
               | existing ones.
               | 
               | It reorders existing words but doesn't invent new ones
        
               | quonn wrote:
               | But that would be totally unrelated to ChatGPT or
               | anything resembling it. Sure, there could be another
               | advance in AI, probably using another approach, but how
               | is that different from 5 years ago?
        
       | recuter wrote:
       | Lishten, money penny, just because we have face swapping
       | technology and voice cloning technology and deep fakes does not
       | mean I shouldn't practice my Sean Connery impression. I admit, I
       | may be somewhat shaken by these recent developments but I'm not
       | shttiered.
        
       | 000ooo000 wrote:
       | Probably worth a disclaimer, somewhere:
       | 
       | "I'm the author of Python Crash Course, which is published by No
       | Starch Press: https://nostarch.com/pythoncrashcourse2e" - author
       | and OP
        
         | marchenko wrote:
         | The Substack is called "mostly Python". I assumed the author is
         | a programming educator or enthusiast of some sort.
        
         | postsantum wrote:
         | I wish HN had pinned comments to save others time
        
         | pcthrowaway wrote:
         | I actually thought this might have been written by ChatGPT.
         | 
         | Part of the answer is that "you should learn to code beyond
         | basic syntax, so that you can be better than the computer".
         | 
         | What it doesn't mention is that the state of AI is also going
         | to continue improving, so you're possibly entering an arms
         | race.
        
           | ge96 wrote:
           | It could be sad if one day AI can do anything. One of those
           | cliche "what's the point". No joy anymore in building.
        
             | speedgoose wrote:
             | You don't always need to have a point for your artistic
             | activities or your hobbies. For example , people still use
             | oil paint while photography exists, people learn piano when
             | a computer does it better.
             | 
             | But professionally, we may have to find new activities.
        
               | ekianjo wrote:
               | > people still use oil paint while photography exists
               | 
               | It's not at all the same medium. Unless you consider that
               | the whole point of oil painting is to imitate realistic
               | pictures...
        
               | pcthrowaway wrote:
               | OK, people attempt photorealistic art when of course, the
               | best they can hope for is to look as realistic as a
               | photograph would.
               | 
               | As someone else mentioned, people play chess for fun.
               | People do things that they will never be as good at as
               | computers.
               | 
               | I don't buy this idea that people need to be the "best"
               | at something to enjoy it. Living that way dooms you to
               | always being unhappy
        
             | topper-123 wrote:
             | I play chess and like it, even though the computer in my
             | pocket can win every human player.
        
               | jcijcijc wrote:
               | If you said "hey I'm bored let's add more squares. Let's
               | move some pieces around or maybe change their movement
               | rules" or "let's play checkers instead" then a human
               | could adapt to this situation pretty easily. A
               | reinforcement learning model like AlphaZero would be like
               | "Whoa whoa whoa not so fast. Let's fire up the GPU
               | cluster." Maybe one day we won't need GPU clusters. But
               | ultimately we're the ones who create all of these tools
               | and decide how to use them.
        
               | candiodari wrote:
               | Why do you treat humans so very different from AlphaZero
               | here? Alphazero could _badly_ play other games quickly,
               | just like humans can. AlphaZero is just able to improve
               | beyond what any human can ever achieve for a lot of types
               | of games.
        
             | nicbou wrote:
             | People could retreat to the physical world where AI is
             | useless.
             | 
             | That being said, people still do things they're outclassed
             | at. We still have blacksmiths.
        
               | ChatGTP wrote:
               | I honestly think a lot of people in their twenties
               | already do this. They're not making much money but seem
               | to be making enough to just have fun and pursue other
               | things.
               | 
               | My brother has figured he can make a great living out of
               | gardening for people. Yes robots will probably do this
               | one day, but will they to the same level ? Really who
               | knows anymore?
               | 
               | I'm actually sure a lot of the more wealthy people he
               | works for kind of also just like him and his company too.
               | He's a youthful fun guy with a lot of creative ideas.
               | 
               | The silicone value push for eternal life via the
               | singularity and trips to Mars seems to be mostly fuelled
               | by cults and the need to keep shareholder happy / profits
               | coming in.
               | 
               | I don't know if anyone else cares that much, including
               | the bots themselves. Time will tell.
        
               | flangola7 wrote:
               | Transformer models work on data. Text, images, and motor
               | control can all be fed into the pit.
        
         | japhyr wrote:
         | I'm the author of the post. I didn't feel any need to add a
         | disclaimer, because if my book faded to insignificance tomorrow
         | I'd still argue the same points.
         | 
         | It's really clear how useful these tools are to many
         | experienced programmers, but I have no idea what impact they'll
         | have on people who are new to programming. Most of the write-
         | ups I've seen so far have been from people who already know how
         | to code. I think it will be some time yet before we really see
         | how effectively people who know nothing about programming are
         | able to use these tools for learning.
        
           | HervalFreire wrote:
           | > I'm the author of the post. I didn't feel any need to add a
           | disclaimer, because if my book faded to insignificance
           | tomorrow I'd still argue the same points.
           | 
           | You need the disclaimer. The reason why is because no one can
           | read your intentions, they can only guess your intention from
           | your actions.
           | 
           | By waiting until a 3rd party disclosed this information a
           | little bit of trust was automatically lost.
        
           | KyeRussell wrote:
           | This is not how a conflict of interest works.
        
           | travisjungroth wrote:
           | > I didn't feel any need to add a disclaimer, because if my
           | book faded to insignificance tomorrow I'd still argue the
           | same points.
           | 
           | I believe you, but this _really_ isn 't how maintaining
           | credibility with a conflict of interest works.
           | 
           | You also don't have to add a "disclaimer". Just mention
           | anywhere that you wrote a book on programming. You can say it
           | abstractly like that if you don't want it to be an ad.
           | Considering how much this experience informs your argument,
           | it should be pretty easy to work in.
           | 
           | And thank you for your book. I've recommended it to many
           | people.
        
       | textread wrote:
       | No, you need not. Especially if you own a _time machine_. Its a
       | matter of perspective, though.
       | 
       | Analogy:-
       | 
       | Because of a tool such as Grammarly, I no longer recommend my
       | kids to bother when they lose marks due to minor grammatical
       | mistakes on a handwritten test.
       | 
       | They better put that 80-20 to practice and learn to recognize
       | aggressively reducing their efforts/tasks/work to 20 wherever
       | possible.
       | 
       | Their English teacher disagrees with me.
       | 
       | Maybe, we do have a horse in this race.
       | 
       | This comment was edited in Grammarly, and it score a 67 out of
       | 100 on readability.
        
         | quonn wrote:
         | Did you/Grammarly mean ,,scored"?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | RadiozRadioz wrote:
         | So you're the reason why the texts I receive from younger
         | relatives are incomprehensible. You should listen to their
         | English teacher. An adult using Grammarly to highlight their
         | mistakes is different from a child relying on Grammarly because
         | they haven't learned any better.
         | 
         | > This comment was edited in Grammarly, and it score a 67 out
         | of 100 on readability.
         | 
         | I can see that. Your 80-20 sentence is poorly constructed, you
         | used the wrong tense in "and it score a 67 out of 100". Other
         | than highlighting the fact that Grammarly thinks you write
         | poorly, what point are you making exactly?
        
       | gumballindie wrote:
       | The elephant in the room is that a lot of outsourcing jobs will
       | get slashed first. Curious how this will affect the economy of
       | countries such as india or other popular outsourcing
       | destinations.
        
         | bberrry wrote:
         | What makes you so confident its the outsourced jobs that will
         | get cut and not the domestic ones?
        
           | quonn wrote:
           | This should be obvious. Jobs outsourced to India are jobs
           | that can be specified rather precisely and require less
           | interaction/requirements engineering across timezones.
        
       | badrabbit wrote:
       | My view is that even if AI can program really well, it can't
       | architect full solutions, you still need to tell it specifics and
       | test/debug its output (at least for now). It's like if you're a
       | farmer and you got tractors, you don't need to till and harvest
       | anymore but you still gotta drive it and press buttons and even
       | if tractors drove themselves and pressed their own buttons you
       | gotta supervise them and maintain them.
       | 
       | I think people being less eager to be programmers will only help
       | with increasing wages lol
        
         | whateveracct wrote:
         | And you still need to run the software. ChatGPT isn't
         | infallible and you will still push bugs or hit sudden scaling
         | or perf issues. Maybe it can help debug at 2am but honestly I'd
         | rather be debugging a system I built rather than one I
         | partially copy-pasted in and didn't fully understand. The old
         | fashioned way has the benefit of growing your own mind and
         | making you "stronger and smarter"
        
         | famahar wrote:
         | A single crop harvester can replace 30 farm workers. If
         | programming is going the same route as your farming example
         | then we're in for a shock. The complexity and scale of software
         | increases every year so I wonder if AI will be able to keep up
         | or if there will always be a need for specialized roles.
        
           | realusername wrote:
           | Coding is a small percentage of a programming job, I don't
           | write more than 100 lines / day, GPT tools are also very late
           | to the party of code generation, it's been 40 years of
           | development in this area.
        
           | badrabbit wrote:
           | Yeah but not everyone affords a crop harvester and even then
           | you have less farm workers not no farm workers.
           | 
           | I think there will be less demand for programmers and more
           | demand at lesser pay for the top quintile of talented coders.
           | There will also be ML managing/engineering/monitoring type
           | jobs that will require you to know how to code. Various other
           | disciplines will also have knowing python and shell scripting
           | a requirement.
           | 
           | The only thing that will get decimated is the need for a 10:1
           | ratio (making that up for the record) between coders that
           | stitch software and suck at debugging and coders that sre
           | debugging ninjas that can identify issues GPT* hallucinates.
           | 
           | The next stage of decimation is a long way off when GPT is
           | able to be integrated into the production monitoring tooling,
           | debug on it's own and answer questions like "why is your code
           | slow under these circumstances? And why does it randomly
           | crash?" Right now operations/sre/users ask that of the
           | programmer. I don't believe GPT is anywhere near being able
           | to reliably answer those questions because if it were, why
           | emit such code to begin with? You would be able to prompt it
           | to generate perfect code if it could do that, the code I have
           | seen is impressive but full of flaws even a collegr freshman
           | wouldn't make.
           | 
           | To me the question is the same as dalle-e replacing artists.
           | Even whe the drawing is not weird or just messed up it still
           | does not "wow" you, i mean technically it qualifies and for a
           | machine it is impressive but it just feels mediocre to the
           | most part.
           | 
           | I think in reality what you will see is GPT assisted IDEs
           | giving new meaning to "code completion".
        
       | badrabbit wrote:
       | My view is that even if AI can program really well, it can't
       | architect full solutions, you still need to tell it specifics and
       | test/debug its output (at least for now). It's like if you're a
       | farmer and you got tractors, you don't need to till and harvest
       | anymore but you still gotta drive it and press buttons and even
       | if tractors drove themselves and pressed their own buttons you
       | gotta supervise them and maintain them.
       | 
       | I think people being less eager to be programmers will only help
       | with increasing wages lol
       | 
       | But does this mean no more stackoverflow? Not cool.
        
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