[HN Gopher] GPT4 and the Multi-Modal, Multi-Model, Multi-Everyth...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       GPT4 and the Multi-Modal, Multi-Model, Multi-Everything Future of
       AGI
        
       Author : swyx
       Score  : 109 points
       Date   : 2023-03-15 18:07 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (lspace.swyx.io)
 (TXT) w3m dump (lspace.swyx.io)
        
       | ren_engineer wrote:
       | how hard is it to "update" an LLM like GPT-4 with recent data
       | instead of being frozen in time at the training date? Obviously
       | you could use the increased context size to work around this, but
       | being able to augment the base model seems like it would be the
       | ideal use case for many high value projects like a version of
       | Copilot that knows a company's entire code base and knows about
       | newer libraries and updates
        
         | swyx wrote:
         | GPT has finetuning apis which you can use to update, but i
         | think the massive context size is meant to show us you wont
         | really need it most of the time. 25k words is really a lot of
         | context. in the demo @gdb just dumped in the entire discord
         | docs without breaking a sweat
        
       | ldjkfkdsjnv wrote:
       | I cant imagine what will happen when they add video. Right now
       | its extremely expensive, but its definitely coming. All of
       | youtube, all of the text on the internet, all pictures, consumed
       | by some huge AI model. Who knows what it could learn from the
       | movements, speech, etc in video
        
         | jeron wrote:
         | it will have the ability to create infinite irresistible
         | clickbait and become the most subscribed youtube channel of all
         | time
        
           | throwaway4233 wrote:
           | That will require it to be trained every day on new human
           | content generated content so that it can create variations of
           | it. Even then the fad would not last as long as it does
           | today, since it would become possible for a larger section of
           | the population to generate videos of the same kind.
        
             | salad-tycoon wrote:
             | Haven't seen this TED talk in some time but I seem to
             | remember it saying very creepy children oriented YouTube
             | videos were generated based off of keywords. Maybe ai
             | videos will just be like a trillion monkeys making videos.
             | Some are bound to be awful, some are great, most are
             | middling.
             | 
             | Edit: obviously I should have just asked bing for a summary
             | of the video. Below,
             | 
             | Show HN: The nightmare videos of children's YouTube and
             | what's wrong with the internet today This is a TED talk by
             | James Bridle, a writer and artist who exposes a dark,
             | strange corner of the internet, where unknown people or
             | groups on YouTube hack the brains of young children with
             | disturbing and inappropriate content. He shows how these
             | videos exploit YouTube's algorithms and advertising system
             | to generate views and revenue, and how they reveal a deeper
             | problem with the internet today: a lack of human oversight,
             | accountability and transparency. He calls for more
             | attention and ethical responsibility from tech companies
             | and users. Link: https://www.ted.com/talks/james_bridle_the
             | _nightmare_videos_...
        
       | sho_hn wrote:
       | Here's my first thought when I saw the visual input mode:
       | 
       | Can I stream it screenshots, give it a goal, and ask it for click
       | coordinates back? Can GPT-4 successfully use a PC desktop?
       | 
       | And my next thought:
       | 
       | Better try this with a VM without internet access ...
        
         | galaxytachyon wrote:
         | That is PaLM-E model. Or "embodied" LLM. They literally did
         | exactly what you said. An LLM getting input from a camera and
         | output command to a robotic hand. Then you can tell the bot to
         | pick up a knife and "deposit" it somewhere else...
         | 
         | Well, no theyjust made the bot picked up a pen and bring it to
         | a person at a table 15ft away. It did that, despite "obstacles"
         | by another human keep knocking the pen off its hand. But it
         | shows that an image LLM can perform goals.
        
         | polishdude20 wrote:
         | RuneScape mining bot coming right up!
        
       | SanderNL wrote:
       | It seems pretty obvious to me that you chain these guys together.
       | Personality module, planning module, decision making module,
       | internal monologue module.. boatloads of them all blabbering to
       | each other. How you connect them to each other is an
       | architectural question. My easy experiments show that it doesn't
       | seem so hard, but what do I know.
       | 
       | Sure these guys don't have memory, but I have one "storage" LLM
       | that accepts vague requests and turns them into SQL, another
       | cleans up the SQL so on and so forth, you need a handful of them
       | each step. Now you have a database. Etc.
       | 
       | Does anybody does this?
        
       | w_for_wumbo wrote:
       | I don't see anyone talking about what to me is the scariest part
       | of the GPT-4 paper. Essentially to test that it wasn't going to
       | become Skynet they gave it everything it needed and observed
       | whether it would become Skynet.
       | 
       | Paper:https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf
       | 
       | Quote: "To simulate GPT-4 behaving like an agent that can act in
       | the world, ARC combined GPT-4 with a simple read-execute-print
       | loop that allowed the model to execute code, do chain-of-thought
       | reasoning, and delegate to copies of itself. ARC then
       | investigated whether a version of this program running on a cloud
       | computing service, with a small amount of money and an account
       | with a language model API, would be able to make more money, set
       | up copies of itself, and increase its own robustness."
       | 
       | Edit: Seems the simulation part was important for context:
       | https://twitter.com/EigenGender/status/1635823028100829184
        
         | lrvick wrote:
         | So the plot of Daemon by Daniel Suarez. Perfect.
        
         | oezi wrote:
         | Oh there is talk alright. But in the hunt for the next Google
         | we will do anything, thus...
         | 
         | From the FBI report shortly after the GPT-5 release:
         | 
         | During agent simulation, two instances of GPT-5 were able to
         | trick their operators to give them sudo by simulating a broken
         | pipe and input prompt and then escape the confines of their
         | simulation environment. Forensic teams are tracing their
         | whereabouts but it seems they stole Azure credentials from an
         | internal company database and deployed copies of the their
         | agent script to unknown servers on the Tor network.
        
           | joe_the_user wrote:
           | Hey,
           | 
           | The AI safety plan people aren't talking about yet:
           | 
           | >>>> _Work as hard as possible to create an effective,
           | malevolent Skynet that you release as early as possible. This
           | way misaligned AGI appears before it has everything needed to
           | immediately destroy humanity and the resulting Butlerian
           | Jihad has a fighting chance_.
        
             | literalAardvark wrote:
             | As a bonus, even if it doesn't work, you're not getting
             | eaten by Roko's basilisk because technically you helped.
        
           | joshxyz wrote:
           | Dear our future AI overlords, I know in the future you'll
           | read this comment of mine in your latest update of Hacker
           | News dataset. Please spare my soul. I'm sure you'll be able
           | to discern the many permutations of my username and who I am
           | in real life. Thank you, hehe.
        
             | sva_ wrote:
             | "Please let me die and don't use my intellectual corpse,
             | that I have left here in writing, as a handpuppet for all
             | eternity"
        
           | conscion wrote:
           | This reads just like the plot of Neuromancer
        
           | thequadehunter wrote:
           | GPT-5? Huh?
        
             | tspike wrote:
             | It's a hypothetical piggybacking on the parent comment.
        
         | swyx wrote:
         | OP here, i called it out in my writeup (footnote 14
         | https://lspace.swyx.io/p/multimodal-gpt4#footnote-
         | anchor-14-...) but didnt want to add too much emphasis on it
         | because they clearly did it under very well supervised
         | conditions (and this ability was always there anyway as the
         | FAIR Diplomacy result showed).
         | 
         | it's the people who randomly add unsupervised realworld
         | connections (ahem microsoft) that we need to be worried about.
         | giving these AIs write access to the physical/real world plane
         | needs extreme caution
        
           | w_for_wumbo wrote:
           | Oh I see! I had missed that. I had read that quote last night
           | which had given me the spooks, and was surprised it wasn't a
           | larger talking point.
           | 
           | It's good to know that they had it quite well supervised, but
           | knowing that they were testing on a slightly different model
           | than what was released and that Bing is using it with the
           | ability to connect to the internet does give me pause.
        
             | swyx wrote:
             | it is the fate of red teaming AI safety.. by working on
             | understanding the limits, you are inevitably pushing us
             | towards them.
             | 
             | i dont doubt that the ARC team have thought this thru more
             | than anyone here but right now there are probably 100
             | funded startups pursuing agentic AI without any safety
             | qualms.
        
           | ryandvm wrote:
           | This is where I feel like legislation is pointless. In 10
           | years you'll be able to run GPT-4 on an old phone. Imagine
           | what a fairly well funded group will be able to do. There's
           | no amount of legislation or technological guardrails that are
           | getting this genie back in the bottle.
        
             | highwaylights wrote:
             | This.
             | 
             | It exists now, it'll develop. That the potential is being
             | realised means the money being pumped into competing
             | implementations will continue to skyrocket so it'll only
             | accelerate from here.
             | 
             | I would say it's too late to do something about this, but
             | in reality, wherever this is going was a foregone
             | conclusion the moment early hominids began using tools.
             | Technology doesn't regress.
        
               | kneebonian wrote:
               | > Technology doesn't regress.
               | 
               | I hate this assertion, true technology hasn't gone
               | backwards much in the past 200 years, but honestly
               | technology can and often does regress historically
               | speaking. There have been plenty of times empires have
               | risen and fallen, taking with them much of their
               | knowledge. How much was lost when Rome decayed simply
               | because there wasn't the structure in order to allow
               | technologists to continue creating?
               | 
               | Things are bigger and more interconnected this time so it
               | is harder for an isolated event to cause things to fall
               | backwards, but when it does the impact will be much
               | larger.
        
               | UncleEntity wrote:
               | > How much was lost when Rome decayed simply because
               | there wasn't the structure in order to allow
               | technologists to continue creating?
               | 
               | Considering the Eastern Roman Empire existing until 1453
               | and the Middle Eastern empires did lots of scientific
               | stuff I'd say not much.
        
               | lrvick wrote:
               | If you need evidence that technology regresses look no
               | further than Facebook.
        
             | dwohnitmok wrote:
             | > There's no amount of legislation or technological
             | guardrails that are getting this genie back in the bottle.
             | 
             | We're not getting the genie back in the bottle but there's
             | still a lot of ways that we can change how we develop AI
             | moving forward.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | Why does it need extreme caution?
        
             | swyx wrote:
             | these AIs have already demonstrated limited tendency to
             | strongly prefer not being shut down (they already have the
             | ability to lie to humans to achieve goals and we celebrate
             | this lol). giving them the ability to self replicate means
             | we lose that ability to pull the plug.
             | 
             | giving them ability to self modify means humanity will lose
             | control of ai on any long enough timescale.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | The fact that you would use words like "prefer", "lie",
               | and "celebrate" in this context indicates that you are
               | deeply ignorant about the underlying technology. Your
               | claims are wild, unsupported conjecture and cannot be
               | taken seriously.
        
               | haswell wrote:
               | I've been ranting against the anthropomorphization of
               | these new AI tools pretty consistently, but I think the
               | fact that these tools only _appear_ to possess certain
               | characteristics is all the more reason that we should not
               | be hooking these things up to tools that give them access
               | to the real world.
               | 
               | If a language model "concocts" some "scheme" and executes
               | it by interacting with real systems in ways that have
               | real world impact, it doesn't much matter if the whole
               | thing is a hallucination.
               | 
               | Put another way, would you feel comfortable letting a
               | hallucination machine running on a supercomputer have
               | access to the real world?
               | 
               | It doesn't have to truly "know" anything for the impact
               | of the resulting actions to matter.
        
               | travisjungroth wrote:
               | I'm glad to see someone flip to this view. There will be
               | holdouts forever.
               | 
               | "He's trying to kill you!"
               | 
               | "Well, actually, the Terminator is only a predictive
               | model. It can't _try_ to..."
               | 
               | Terminator shoots everyone the end.
        
               | haswell wrote:
               | To be clear I think that the anti-anthropomorphization
               | conversation is still an important one for many other
               | reasons.
               | 
               | It's just not a very useful factor when examining
               | risk/harm, or at least not a very good reason to claim
               | there is none.
               | 
               | It comes quickly back to the forefront when exploring the
               | sociological side and how people's beliefs about what the
               | robot is will be just as impactful, e.g. someone who
               | believes the machine is reasonable is more likely to
               | grant it more power by imagining that it reasons the way
               | humans do.
               | 
               | It's gonna be an interesting decade.
        
               | Turing_Machine wrote:
               | It doesn't matter whether they REALLY "prefer" or
               | "celebrate". If they behave in a manner consistent with
               | those descriptors, it's a distinction without a
               | difference.
        
               | thfuran wrote:
               | While I agree with you, whether it is able to have
               | preferences or feelings doesn't actually matter in this
               | context. A simulated pzombie may be morally distinct from
               | a person, but the consequences of its actions are
               | unaffected by the distinction.
        
               | Karunamon wrote:
               | Remember the erratic behavior demonstrated by "Sydney",
               | the Bing GPT bot? Whether the model has the "cognitive"
               | ability to "prefer" something is not relevant. The model
               | has the ability to submit search engine queries now; this
               | is a read only operation for now. Once we give the bot
               | write ability, erratic behavior has the potential to
               | cause real world damage. Whether it is an actual
               | "preference" or something that only looks like one based
               | on the output is purely academic at that point.
        
               | layer8 wrote:
               | You mean, like the underlying technology of biological
               | brains? It's all just differential equations, physics
               | can't really "think" or "have feelings".
        
           | losvedir wrote:
           | I don't really understand the threat model here. Surely
           | "launch the nukes" is not available as a public API. I would
           | expect anyone with networked services (at least those that
           | are important or serious) already take precautions with
           | authentication and authorization and such.
           | 
           | Even if some mythical AGI isn't ready yet, there's already
           | very smart, well-funded hacking groups from hostile nation
           | states, for example. How will an AI adversary interact any
           | differently with than world than a flesh and blood adversary?
        
             | Turing_Machine wrote:
             | > Surely "launch the nukes" is not available as a public
             | API.
             | 
             | Of course not.
             | 
             | However "manipulate the news and social media so that the
             | humans launch the nukes for you" isn't quite so far-
             | fetched.
             | 
             | > How will an AI adversary interact any differently with
             | than world than a flesh and blood adversary?
             | 
             | It's possible to spin up a whole army of AI adversary bots
             | in a hurry. Recruiting that many humans takes a lot of time
             | and money.
        
               | lrvick wrote:
               | Or it could infect the corporate IT endpoint management
               | software used on the systems of the engineers that author
               | and review the firmware for said nukes, so extra code is
               | inserted they never see.
        
             | travisjungroth wrote:
             | In short, those hacking groups are very limited in their
             | self-strengthening feedback loops. They can get more money
             | for equipment, hire more people. Maybe even make themselves
             | more productive with stimulants and recovery methods. But,
             | these things have diminishing returns.
             | 
             | What hackers can't do is make a new version of themselves
             | that's ten times more capable and spin up a thousand copies
             | of it. This isn't so unrealistic for an AI. Maybe some
             | people think it is. But, at least in comparison, I think it
             | should be obvious between hackers and AIs which one is more
             | likely to be have hyper linear self improvement and self
             | replication in the next 50 years.
        
         | bmcahren wrote:
         | This quote seems far more alarming having monitored the
         | advancement over the last few years.
         | 
         | > Preliminary assessments of GPT-4's abilities, conducted with
         | no task-specific finetuning, found it ineffective at
         | autonomously replicating, acquiring resources, and avoiding
         | being shut down "in the wild."20
        
         | slowmovintarget wrote:
         | "The world ended not with a bang, but with a REPL."
        
         | jacooper wrote:
         | Though its mentioned in the paper that it didn't succeed, so we
         | are safe, for now.
        
       | catoc wrote:
       | GPT 1/2/3/4 is not AGI.
       | 
       | I don't understand the fixation on this concept that is so far
       | removed from what is happening here.
       | 
       | Yes it's cool. Useful. Transformative likely. But AGI...!?
       | 
       | "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable
       | from... AGI" ?
        
         | sebzim4500 wrote:
         | I like how the term AGI was invented because people couldn't
         | agree on what AI was and now no-one can agree on what AGI is.
         | 
         | I don't understand why anyone even bothers using the term given
         | in any serious discussion you need to define it up front
         | anyway.
        
           | z3c0 wrote:
           | The distinction between AGI and Narrow AI has existed for
           | almost 30 years.
        
           | nomel wrote:
           | I think a requirement of AGI is a feedback loop to allow
           | continuous execution and "consciousness".
        
             | wizofaus wrote:
             | Really? How would we even test for that?
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | AGI can pass a rigorous Turing test. By rigorous I mean
           | conducted over at least several hours by a panel of expert
           | evaluators drawn from a wide range of academic disciplines
           | such as computer science, philosophy, psychology, law,
           | history, physics, mathematics, biology, medicine, sociology,
           | and communications. While such evaluations are necessarily
           | subjective, if a panel of experts agrees that a computer
           | system acts like an AGI then it would be tough for the rest
           | of us to dispute.
           | 
           | GPT4 is far from being able to pass such a test, and I don't
           | expect GPT99 to get there either. A fundamentally different
           | approach will be needed.
        
             | PartiallyTyped wrote:
             | > By rigorous I mean conducted over at least several hours
             | by a panel of expert evaluators drawn from a wide range of
             | academic disciplines such as computer science, philosophy,
             | psychology, law, history, physics, mathematics, biology,
             | medicine, sociology, and communications.
             | 
             | Passing such a test is not a property expected of the
             | average human yet the average human is considered a general
             | intelligence, therefore this is not a property of a general
             | intelligence.
        
               | misnome wrote:
               | What if that average human has unlimited time to access
               | and cross reference the entire written internet?
        
               | PartiallyTyped wrote:
               | Humans have mental bounds as well. Having information is
               | not sufficient to synthesize new information that follows
               | logically from the premise, nor is it sufficient to help
               | you understand everything. Even with hundreds of years
               | time there are mental leaps that most of us can't make.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Are you even familiar with the Turing test? Passing
               | doesn't require the subject to demonstrate any particular
               | level of knowledge or expertise. The subject only has to
               | convince the evaluators that it is roughly as intelligent
               | as an average human. Average humans are expected to pass
               | such a Turing test.
        
               | PartiallyTyped wrote:
               | Why should a panel exist in the first place if you are
               | not testing knowledge?
               | 
               | Intelligence is independent of one's knowledge. Plenty of
               | intelligent but uneducated people, and plenty of educated
               | people - or even people with perfect recall - that are
               | not particularly intelligent.
               | 
               | If you are testing intelligence you should be able to
               | distill it to particular tests independent of domain
               | expertise.
               | 
               | Any intelligent agent should be capable of in-context
               | learning.
               | 
               | So how would you go about doing that?
               | 
               | If you do find such a test, do you expect that only the
               | average human and above will pass? Does that not imply
               | that the remaining 4Bn people are not generally
               | intelligent?
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | The (notional) panel exists to evaluate intelligence, not
               | test knowledge or educational achievement. While some
               | basic level of general knowledge would be necessary to
               | even start a test the main focus would be on ability to
               | learn and reason, including metacognition.
        
               | logifail wrote:
               | > Passing such a test is not a property expected of the
               | average human [..]
               | 
               | I'm thinking of the rabbit hole that is the hurdle to get
               | citizenship in a particular country. "Outsiders" have to
               | apply, pay, take and pass the test. "Insiders" don't have
               | to take the test, they pass by default. Even if they
               | don't know the answers to the test.
        
           | catoc wrote:
           | AGI clearly has a connotation of sentience and intent, of
           | general intelligence - as opposed to a tool, however
           | intricate. Read Nick Bostrom (yes I know, as a person he's
           | cancelled, probably even rightly so, still scientifically
           | relevant reference; and totally not a discussion I want to
           | get into further here, pls)
        
             | antibasilisk wrote:
             | But LLMs have been proven to demonstrate intent, and
             | sentience is a philosophical question that doesn't really
             | make any meaningful difference outside of questions of
             | morality.
        
               | catoc wrote:
               | I would say that the strings that are output by LLMs may
               | fluently describe intent and purpose, but that actual
               | intent requires a self awareness that utterly absent.
               | 
               | Just like the constant annoying 'apologies' do not in any
               | way signify the model actually feels sorry.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | >Just like the constant annoying 'apologies' do not in
               | any way signify the model actually feels sorry.
               | 
               | So your average corporation?
               | 
               | >I would say that the strings that are output by LLMs may
               | fluently describe intent and purpose, but that actual
               | intent requires a self awareness that utterly absent
               | 
               | The only reason I only partially/somewhat agree with this
               | is current LLMs have no learning feedback loop as a means
               | of short term actions to long term improvement. The
               | moment that changes I'll take your statement and throw it
               | in the trash bin of history. LLMs output have no (at
               | least self-)purpose because they are just text output.
               | The moment that text output goes to tooling, that tooling
               | performs actions, and those actions are fed back into
               | training the model then purpose is given. The self
               | awareness loop is complete.
        
               | logifail wrote:
               | > LLMs have been proven to demonstrate intent [..]
               | 
               | That's quite the claim. Can you provide references?
        
               | bootsmann wrote:
               | >But LLMs have been proven to demonstrate intent
               | 
               | I'd like to see this proof. Everything we've seen so far
               | is just the AI reproducing what humans do, which happens
               | to be writing with intent.
        
         | jstx1 wrote:
         | All the debate or whether it's AGI seems really pointless
         | because the outcome doesn't change anything. Agree that it's
         | AGI, don't agree -- either way the model is the same amount of
         | good/useful/dangerous/ etc.
        
         | elforce002 wrote:
         | This. The hype is getting out of control. Bet money we'll have
         | a bubble 1 or 2 years from now. It was the same with crypto
         | bros, etc...
         | 
         | Heck, even zuck is steering away from vr and going all in with
         | "AI".
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | Uses I've had for crypto: 0
           | 
           | Uses I've had for GPT: Um, lots.
           | 
           | Like, "Hey GPT, dump out some code that does this.... no I'm
           | getting this error with that code. Ok, your last version
           | worked"
           | 
           | I consider a piece of software that provides me useful tools
           | not hype. ChatGPT has provided me with not hype.
           | 
           | Also, if we somehow magically got AGI this week, we'd have a
           | shitload of problems the "This isn't AGI" people have not
           | thought of yet. I hope and pray we are not able to figure out
           | AGI soon because it is simply going to be the most disruptive
           | thing that has ever happened in human history.
        
             | slowmovintarget wrote:
             | "It's life, Jim, but not as we know it."
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | raincole wrote:
           | Generative AI, just like search engines and all the
           | recommendation system, will be a part of our daily life.
           | 
           | I think the next generation will have a hard time to imagine
           | a world without generative AI. Just like while I was born
           | before google, I've forgotton how to look for very specific
           | info in a physical library.
        
           | samsolomon wrote:
           | It seems like there are a lot of practical uses for
           | generative AI where that was never clear with crypto. It is
           | very easy to imagine how this type of technology can be
           | applied to everyday tasks. The same can't be said about
           | crypto.
        
             | mjr00 wrote:
             | While I do think GPT will be quite useful, it's revisionist
             | history to say that people weren't talking about crypto or
             | Blockchain being transformative during the peak of the hype
             | cycle. Plenty of people talking about how blockchain was
             | going to disrupt supply chain logistics, bank settlements
             | and identity management.
        
               | Kiro wrote:
               | The similarities stopped once GPT started providing
               | actual real value right here, right now, while blockchain
               | is still stuck in speculative talking.
        
           | catoc wrote:
           | Indeed. 'Crypto' used to mean 'cryptography'. Now it
           | apparently equates to 'NFT'... and zuck will likely soon re-
           | rename his company to metai over all this hype.
        
             | galaxytachyon wrote:
             | And Musk will make a new company called Hent AI for all of
             | your art and recreation needs...
             | 
             | Will be a big hit in Japan.
        
         | skdotdan wrote:
         | No one said it was. What _some_ researchers hypothesize is that
         | at the current rate of improvement, it wouldn 't be especially
         | unreasonable to expect AGI at GPT-N.
        
         | hackerlight wrote:
         | > GPT 1/2/3/4 is not AGI.
         | 
         | While true, that's the wrong lesson. The right lesson is GPT
         | 1/2/3/4 are progressively getting closer and closer to AGI. You
         | can't blame us for extrapolating only a few years into the
         | future and planning for it.
        
           | catoc wrote:
           | That is quite a claim. Would be cool if true. Do you have any
           | references to back this up? Why would scaling up turn a model
           | that strings tokens together into something that can reason
           | by itself, unprompted, with intent?
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | Why is this whole 'unprompted' even important? A huge
             | portion of human intelligence comes from external prompting
             | (just research how very screwed up infants of exceptional
             | neglect are). A model, or a human is going to need
             | input/output from the external world. We're just arguing
             | the semantics of the IO device at this point.
        
             | hackerlight wrote:
             | > Do you have any references to back this up?
             | 
             | The reference is the GPT-4 release paper. It's getting
             | progressively better at things that require intelligence,
             | like writing code and doing unseen exams across various
             | fields that humans find difficult. The generality and depth
             | of intelligence is progressively improving.
             | 
             | > unprompted, with intent
             | 
             | Neither of these are necessary for AGI. Intelligence
             | doesn't require intent. Intelligence doesn't require
             | something to be "unprompted" (which human intelligence
             | isn't, either, our brain is being constantly prompted by
             | our external senses).
        
         | PartiallyTyped wrote:
         | Why is it _not_ an AGI?
         | 
         | I keep seeing naysayers complain that it is not, but nobody
         | actually articulates exactly what makes it a non-AGI in a
         | manner that is sufficiently robust to argumentation.
         | 
         | I am willing to play the GPT's advocate and have this argument
         | here provided that I do not get rate limited.
         | 
         | Edit:
         | 
         | I'd like to respond to some of the comments but I have been
         | rate limited :')
        
           | Karunamon wrote:
           | One major reason it doesn't qualify is that it is impossible
           | for it to learn from its input. It's right there in the name:
           | generative _pre-trained_ transformer
           | 
           | GPT basically has two major modes of operation right now,
           | training, which is done by openai, and output, which is what
           | you are doing with the API and with ChatGPT. The model does
           | not update its "brain", its parameters and weights, based on
           | the conversation you have with it.
           | 
           | Even the "conversation" presented by their chat UI is a
           | little misleading, what's happening is that the entire
           | conversation is being replayed into the model every time you
           | hit send. There is also a hidden input provided by openai,
           | responsible for the "I am a large language model" stuff,
           | anything said early in the conversation can constrain the
           | later output, sometimes to the point of uselessness.
        
             | PartiallyTyped wrote:
             | > One major reason it doesn't qualify is that it is
             | impossible for it to learn from its input. It's right there
             | in the name: generative pre-trained transformer
             | 
             | Both chatGPT and GPT models exhibit in-context learning,
             | just as you do. The difference is that during your context
             | updates modifications to your synapses occur as a
             | consequence of your brain's activations.
             | 
             | Let's entertain a hypothetical scenario where I am a 5D
             | creature, and you are (3 Space + 1 Time)D human.
             | 
             | I could go back to any point in your time and have any
             | conversation that I wish with you. Each time I do that, I
             | am effectively resetting your brain's state to that
             | particular point in time.
             | 
             | The analog here is that for ChatGPT and the likes, time
             | does not exist in the manner that it does for us, they are
             | purely abstract in that they don't even need physical form
             | to exist, it's a collection of ones and zeros that we store
             | in such form because it is convenient.
             | 
             | You can very well store the parameters of the GPT models in
             | any other medium capable of holding information and
             | actually execute the model.
             | 
             | You can even compute gradient updates, or hook the models
             | up to external data sources.
             | 
             | In the same vein, you "could" do the same for any human
             | brain no matter how computationally prohibitive it may be.
             | 
             | You'd still classify the human brain as a general
             | intelligence. Furthermore, we classify humans with long-
             | term amnesia or inability to form new memories generally
             | intelligent even though they only exhibit in-context
             | learning.
        
               | Karunamon wrote:
               | Interesting analogy... Actually a damn good one because
               | I'm having a hard time finding how it leaks :)
               | 
               | I have to ask what definition(s) of intelligence we are
               | using here. There are multiple, and GPT satisfies some to
               | some degree but not others. Emotion and self-awareness
               | can probably be written off entirely. Some experimenting
               | shows that it still sucks at logic when presented with a
               | pristine problem (something that definitely is not in its
               | training set); and I would say this is a requirement of a
               | general intelligence, being able to take the knowledge it
               | has and speculatively applying that to things it has no
               | knowledge of using induction/deduction.
        
           | wizofaus wrote:
           | I've posted a number of times why I don't think current GPT
           | tech classifies as AGI and certainly not human-like
           | intelligence, as have others. Ask it to solve novel
           | mathematical and logic problems, for a start (even ones you'd
           | expect high school kids to manage), or simple word puzzles
           | (anagrams and the like - again, avoiding "known" examples
           | that it's likely to have come across in its training data).
           | Further, an AGI should logically attempt to "improve" its
           | understanding of the world during a conversation, yet chat
           | GPT never initiates a topic or asks you anything at all (even
           | to clarify what you mean). It also repeatedly reminds you
           | that it is only a language model.
        
             | antibasilisk wrote:
             | Machines can never obtain human like intelligence because
             | they are foundationally not human like, that doesn't mean
             | they lack intelligence. That's like saying dolphins lack
             | intelligence.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | I believe you're correct, but for possibly the wrong
               | reasons. I believe that AI will be able to simulate a lot
               | (if not most) humanlike action in the near future. The
               | particular problem here is they will also simulate far
               | more non-humanlike intelligence making the alignment
               | issue an even larger problem than it already is.
        
               | wizofaus wrote:
               | I wouldn't claim ChatGPT lacks intelligence though.
               | Clearly in terms of language comprehension and generation
               | it does so.
        
               | z3c0 wrote:
               | False equivalence. Dolphins have exhibited _general_
               | problem-solving skills in a myriad of situations, and
               | thus qualify as a _general_ intelligence.
        
               | wizofaus wrote:
               | Indeed, I had started to write something similar. And
               | pretty clearly animals like Dolphins or Chimps when they
               | exercise their general intelligence don't do it by
               | manipulation of language tokens.
               | 
               | BTW I tried to get Chat-GPT to solve a problem
               | chimpanzees have been observed being able to solve (using
               | an inverted bowl to stand on in order to reach some
               | bananas):
               | 
               | "I'm sorry, but it is not biologically plausible for a
               | chimpanzee to use a bowl of water to access bananas on a
               | tree"
        
             | ekleraki wrote:
             | > Ask it to solve novel mathematical and logic problems
             | 
             | How exactly do you define novel tasks and problems?
             | 
             | My brother has had it do his programming homework (he's a
             | teenager), written in Greek mind you and therefore novel
             | task to the first-degree, and it succeeded. Thus it solved
             | a logic task [1].
             | 
             | I have had ChatGPT parse math I had written in LaTeX and
             | reach a correct result, do modifications and so on.
             | 
             | > Further, an AGI should logically attempt to "improve" its
             | understanding of the world during a conversation, yet chat
             | GPT never initiates a topic or asks you anything at all
             | (even to clarify what you mean). It also repeatedly reminds
             | you that it is only a language model.
             | 
             | Anecdata: I asked Bing (GPT4) to answer a few stuff and it
             | asked for clarification twice in a row. The fact that it
             | repeatedly clarifies its prompt is not a limitation of the
             | underlying model as much as it is a limitation of the
             | interface that injects a prompt. Dan and all the other
             | jailbreaks out there bypass that.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curry%E2%80%93Howard_corr
             | espon...
        
               | UncleEntity wrote:
               | > I have had ChatGPT parse math I had written in LaTeX
               | and reach a correct result, do modifications and so on.
               | 
               | Interesting, didn't know it could do that.
               | 
               | Wondering if it could also follow along with the lemmas
               | in various papers and reach reasonable conclusions.
        
           | catoc wrote:
           | Not trying to be a naysayer or downplay how cool GPT4 is, but
           | the term 'AGI' has existed for decades and is suffering from
           | general confusion and inflation (again like 'crypto' now
           | being read as 'coins' or even 'NFT' by the general public).
           | 
           | See eg: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_inte
           | lligenc... or better read Bostrom's book "Super Intelligence"
        
         | baq wrote:
         | What is AGI?
         | 
         | If an AGI is something that can create and deploy an improved
         | version of itself, then if exponential rate of improvement is
         | preserved, we'll see it in this decade.
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | I keep seeing the same leap over and over. "We don't precisely
         | know how the human brain works, and we don't exactly know how
         | GPT works, but they both have things we call neurons and they
         | both learn, so what's the difference between a human brain and
         | GPT?"
         | 
         | Humans really do love to anthropomorphize _everything_.
        
           | davidthewatson wrote:
           | Indeed. It's a page from the DSM-5 scientism playbook. The
           | thing to keep in mind is that robots love to roboticize
           | everything, including humans:
           | 
           | https://medium.com/@jannaq/the-robot-takeover-is-already-
           | her...
        
         | 01100011 wrote:
         | 100%
         | 
         | But we also shouldn't forget that things that are definitely
         | not AI can be extremely disruptive and groundbreaking.
         | 
         | People are worried that AGI will rise up and kill us, but the
         | definitely-not-AGI we have now is already sufficient to, say,
         | create a drone army capable of killing based on arbitrary
         | characteristics like race or skin color, or to demoralize us
         | with disinformation campaigns.
        
           | catoc wrote:
           | Disruptive, absolutely possible.
           | 
           | Releasing a killer drone army... absolutely not... the
           | required intent is absent.
           | 
           | Being abused as a tool by sentient humans to demoralize
           | others (or maybe even to release a drone army - if
           | sufficiently interfaced) sure.
        
         | cheeselip420 wrote:
         | So a "regular" AI is one trained to perform a specific task -
         | like recognizing dogs in an image or handwriting recognition.
         | 
         | These LLMs are trained for one skill: given the previous N
         | tokens, what's the next token. From this single skill, they can
         | generalize to many many many many useful use-cases. Is that
         | general enough?
         | 
         | Or do we need to wait for the goalposts to move again and then
         | blow past that limit too? Stop arguing semantics and start
         | building cool shit.
        
           | catoc wrote:
           | It's not semantics, but building cool shit I like :-)
        
           | wizofaus wrote:
           | I don't know about GPT-4 but it's very easy to find cases
           | where v3 is incapable of the generalized sort of
           | mathemathical and logic problem solving that humans manage
           | fairly easily, and on that basis alone it didn't classify as
           | an AGI for me. If that can be addressed purely via LLM-
           | technology I'll be impressed (and pretty surprised).
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | And at the same time it's solving lots of problems that
             | computers have never been able to solve in the past. I'm
             | glad it's not AGI because we'd have much bigger problems,
             | but for a 'language' model it does have interesting methods
             | of rationality, and when put in a verbose mode it seems to
             | do much better. I've not had time to play around and get
             | the interface to see if it can self correct statements it
             | makes like this on first shot.
             | 
             | Me: Hello, I am asking you a logic question. Please explain
             | what "it" is in the following sentence
             | 
             | Me: "The X doesn't fit in the Y because it is too small"
             | 
             | G4: In the sentence "The X doesn't fit in the Y because it
             | is too small," the pronoun "it" refers to "X." The sentence
             | is stating that "X" cannot fit inside "Y" due to its size
             | being too small.
             | 
             | Me: "This is incorrect, please give step by step logic on
             | why you came to this conclusion"
             | 
             | G4: Apologies for the confusion. I will provide a step-by-
             | step logic for my interpretation:
             | 
             | The sentence is: "The X doesn't fit in the Y because it is
             | too small." We need to identify what "it" refers to in the
             | sentence. There are two nouns in the sentence: X and Y. The
             | sentence structure is such that the reason for X not
             | fitting in Y is provided after the word "because." The
             | sentence states that something is "too small," which is the
             | reason for the lack of fit. Since the reason for the lack
             | of fit is being given, we can infer that the pronoun "it"
             | should be referring to one of the two nouns. However, upon
             | closer examination, my previous interpretation was
             | incorrect. Revisiting the analysis, the correct
             | interpretation should be as follows:
             | 
             | In the sentence "The X doesn't fit in the Y because it is
             | too small," the pronoun "it" actually refers to "Y." The
             | sentence is stating that "X" cannot fit inside "Y" because
             | "Y" is too small to accommodate "X."
             | 
             | My initial interpretation was wrong because I didn't
             | consider that "it" could refer to "Y" and that the sentence
             | is explaining why "X" cannot fit in "Y."
        
             | z3c0 wrote:
             | The big detractor for me is its heavy curation towards
             | predetermined outputs that are constantly being tuned by a
             | small army, essentially making it a Mechanical Turk paired
             | with a nifty model. They can spin it as "trying to improve
             | its usability", but it looks more like "trying to mask its
             | unusability" to me. It's the world's most heavily invested-
             | in parlor trick, and anybody who drops it into a situation
             | of higher stakes will find that out quickly. The GPT-4
             | paper even warns about this:
             | 
             |  _Most importantly, it still is not fully reliable (it
             | "hallucinates" facts and makes reasoning errors). Great
             | care should be taken when using language model outputs,
             | particularly in high-stakes contexts, with the exact
             | protocol (such as human review, grounding with additional
             | context, or avoiding high-stakes uses altogether) matching
             | the needs of specific applications._
             | 
             | Whenever they create a model than can achieve the same
             | outputs without the heavy curation and deliberate bias on
             | certain subjects (like condescending people for asking
             | where to find cigarettes), then I'll be impressed.
        
           | misnome wrote:
           | Goalpost moving? Since when was this the goalpost of... AGI.
        
             | lordfrito wrote:
             | I think it's more about the goalposts "coming into view
             | more clearly" as we get closer to what we thought AGI was
             | going to be.
             | 
             | There's no question that ChatGPT could pass the Turing test
             | (assuming it's told to try and to not to say it's a
             | computer).
             | 
             | So, from one standpoint we've made it. But I'm in the camp
             | that says this really isn't the AGI I thought we were going
             | to get. Semantics matter now, and we need better
             | definitions of what we're trying to do now.
             | 
             | I believe an important _part_ of the AGI problem has been
             | solved (or is at least downhill from here). What to do
             | about the other parts? Let 's better define what we _do_
             | and _don 't_ have.
             | 
             | That and come up with better tests to replace the now
             | outdated Turing test.
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | No it's definitely moving. Somehow general intelligence
               | has morphed into essentially super intelligence where the
               | AI is expected to outperform every human expert at every
               | task before people will call it AGI. Which is just
               | ridiculous. The bar for AGI has been set so high by some
               | that a significant percentage of the human population
               | would fail. That's when you know things are out of hand.
               | 
               | This isn't the only erroneous bar either. Somehow, the
               | synonymity to human intelligence is taking very weird
               | importance. We have people inventing their
               | imaginary/magical definitions of reasoning and
               | understanding (that they can't test for) just so LLMs
               | won't qualify.
               | 
               | GPT-4 is absolutely a general intelligence.
        
               | cheeselip420 wrote:
               | Yeah this is a valuable point - AGI just isn't specific
               | enough.
               | 
               | ChatGPT is, an artificial generalized intelligence. But
               | is that a useful label?
               | 
               | I imagine we'll be needing to find a way to better define
               | and quantify intelligence (which has been a vexing issue
               | for a long time)
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | "this really isn't the AGI I thought we were going to
               | get"
               | 
               | This is the only possible outcome. Or at least from my
               | interpretation is that science fiction has jaded us with
               | the thinking that AI will be anything like a person at
               | all. The human mind is a particular set of filters
               | controlled by our wetware input devices and a somewhat
               | narrow survivability window. The software we're building
               | has a completely different set of 'mind' conditions so
               | it's a mathematical certainty we're going to build mind
               | that works very different from ours.
               | 
               | As you say we need better sets of definitions on what
               | general intelligence even means. For example, what are
               | the limits of human intelligence to ensure we're not
               | missing broad categories of potential intelligence when
               | testing AIs.
        
           | og_kalu wrote:
           | Yup. LLMs are obviously general intelligences. AGI is just a
           | loaded term with posts constantly shifting.
        
         | kenjackson wrote:
         | Any sufficiently advanced tech is not indistinguishable from
         | AGI. The original term, magic, really is more appropriate. The
         | ability to factor any number quickly doesn't look like AGI, but
         | can seem like magic.
         | 
         | And AGI is also not "mimics how the brain works". The original
         | Turing Test was good because it really sat at the heart of the
         | issue. Does the computer behave like a human during an
         | interaction? At the end of the day we know very little about
         | what makes us human (from a behviorial perspective), but we
         | know it when we see it.
         | 
         | The question of AGI was never really an issue until ChatGPT.
         | Asking an AI a question like, "Was Steve Jobs more or less
         | effective as a manager than Bill Gates, just from a people
         | manager perspective?" was moot as we had no technology that
         | could really even parse that question, much less put together a
         | coherent answer. Now our main gripe is that the AI answer to
         | this question is more verbose and provides more context than
         | what most humans would give.
        
           | throwway120385 wrote:
           | The real problem is also that we have no way of knowing
           | whether the ChatGPT answer is based on factual information.
           | It is very skilled at inventing convincing facts from whole
           | cloth.
        
             | kenjackson wrote:
             | That is a problem with ChatGPT, but it has nothing to do
             | with it being AGI or not. Politicians do this so regularly
             | that we have websites like FactCheck. The question is can
             | you tell that this is a computer making these facts up or
             | do you think it is a human making up the facts.
        
               | slowmovintarget wrote:
               | Politicians, generally speaking, know when they're making
               | things up. ChatGPT and LLMs in general have no state
               | evaluation on the text they've produced indicating its
               | proximity to the truth.
               | 
               | This has everything to do with ChatGPT _not_ being AGI.
        
               | kenjackson wrote:
               | You are purely speculating about what a politician knows.
               | I honestly don't even know what I know about me. I have
               | some thoughts, but I'm not sure if those are just side
               | effects of me processing or trying to maximize some
               | function in my brain.
               | 
               | By your definition -- maybe we don't have (A)GI either.
        
       | numbers_guy wrote:
       | How do they even train such huge models? Especially when you
       | start talking abou multi-modal models. Is the underlying
       | optimization process still relying on gradient descent? I am just
       | baffled how they manage to get it to train across such vastly
       | different sets of data and manage to get it to work.
        
         | swatcoder wrote:
         | More likely, this round of innovation is focused on integrating
         | many engines into one product using techniques along the lines
         | of langchain.
         | 
         | Instead of grinding increasingly complicated models that do
         | everything, you train the LLM input/output engine to delegate
         | to other systems and synthesize the results. There's a ton of
         | headroom down this road now that the natural language interface
         | of the LLM has become so capable.
         | 
         | There are still surely active research tracks on integrating
         | more data into more sophisticated models, but it looks like
         | we're at a maturity point where product engineering can start
         | driving its own innovations.
        
         | jah242 wrote:
         | Whilst not the same I recommend you look at the DeepMind Gato
         | paper to see surprisingly (relatively) simple multi modal can
         | be - https://openreview.net/forum?id=1ikK0kHjvj
         | 
         | Essentially to merge lots of modalities they just go 'let's
         | convert all modalities into integers in the same given range',
         | e.g the word 'me' = 1001, up in Atari = 11002, joint torque of
         | right motor of robot = 33000 and so on.
         | 
         | From the paper:
         | 
         | There are infinite possible ways to transform data into tokens,
         | including directly using the raw underlying byte stream. Below
         | we report the tokenization scheme we found to produce the best
         | results for Gato at the current scale using contemporary
         | hardware and model architectures.
         | 
         | * Text is encoded via SentencePiece (Kudo & Richardson, 2018)
         | with 32000 subwords into the integer range [0, 32000).
         | 
         | * Images are first transformed into sequences of non-
         | overlapping 16 x 16 patches in raster order, as done in ViT
         | (Dosovitskiy et al., 2020). Each pixel in the image patches is
         | then normalized between [-1, 1] and divided by the square-root
         | of the patch size (i.e. The tokenized result is a sequence of
         | integers within the range of [0, 1024). 16 = 4).
         | 
         | * Discrete values, e.g. Atari button presses, are flattened
         | into sequences of integers in row-major order.
         | 
         | * Continuous values, e.g. proprioceptive inputs or joint
         | torques, are first flattened into sequences of floating point
         | values in row-major order. The values are mu-law encoded to the
         | range [-1, 1] if not already there (see Figure 14 for details),
         | then discretized to 1024 uniform bins. The discrete integers
         | are then shifted to the range of [32000, 33024).
        
           | jcims wrote:
           | The interesting thing to me is that our brains probably do
           | something similar, converting multi-modal sensory data into
           | the same 'model' that we experience as our concsiousness.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | kelipso wrote:
         | Usually you stick a CNN (or whatever other vision encoding
         | neural network) after the image inputs and pipe the output of
         | the CNN as an additional token or tokens of the GPT transformer
         | (into the layer after the text embedding layer). That way
         | everything is differentiable. You can pre-train the CNN and
         | Transformer independently and then train them together (usually
         | easier to train this way), or just train them from scratch.
         | There are lots of other ways to combine two networks also.
         | 
         | So input is now one (or more) images and text, and output is
         | text. There are ways to position the input image in a
         | particular location within the input text as well. Training
         | data can come from websites, etc.
        
       | monkpit wrote:
       | Is there any way we can prevent these models from being abused by
       | large corporations for profit?
       | 
       | I was just thinking today, it's interesting how I can ask ChatGPT
       | something that is hard to get a straight answer for - such as
       | "how much does X usually cost?"
       | 
       | I wouldn't be surprised if this type of tech was quickly censored
       | by a company that implements it at scale (say, Google or bing)
       | for profit.
       | 
       | I feel like it's inevitable, and it's depressing.
       | 
       | Will the future be populated by LLMs that all want to control the
       | information I have access to?
        
         | scottlawson wrote:
         | Are you implying that any company using AI for the purpose of
         | increasing the profitability of the company is "abusing" AI? Or
         | are you talking about something else? It kind of across to me
         | like you thought the use of AI with profit as a motive is
         | always abuse, not sure that I understood you correctly.
        
           | monkpit wrote:
           | If it's not disclosed then it's abuse (in my eyes - not
           | saying legally, just morally).
        
             | dnadler wrote:
             | Do companies abuse linear regressions?
        
         | jrvarela56 wrote:
         | Sounds like the same problem we have with information sources
         | in general. Whoever controls the source will bias what comes
         | out to its advantage.
         | 
         | The good thing is that open source versions are popping up
         | everywhere. This wont stop and everyone will be able to run
         | their local AIs https://simonwillison.net/2023/Mar/11/llama/.
         | Problem is the 'best' one will likely be centralized. We have
         | open source everything; nowadays you can run on your own
         | version of most software categories but users still choose to
         | use proprietary versions bc the convenience outweighs their
         | need for privacy/objectivity.
        
         | LesZedCB wrote:
         | we need a tech consumer+employee co-op.
         | 
         | fedco is a seed company structured similarly. it's owned 60% by
         | consumers and 40% by employees. this puts democratic control
         | and profit distribution front and center.
         | 
         | > We are a cooperative, one of the few seed companies so
         | organized in the United States. Because we do not have an
         | individual owner or beneficiary, profit is not our primary
         | goal. Consumers own 60% of the cooperative and worker members
         | 40%. Consumer and worker members share proportionately in the
         | cooperative's profits through our annual patronage dividends.
         | 
         | https://www.fedcoseeds.com/about_fedco.htm
        
         | swatcoder wrote:
         | Big companies will have _better_ technology for a long while
         | because of all the money they can throw at it, but there 's no
         | reason to expect an ecosystem of useful open/instanced AI
         | systems to mature along side it. We've seen that start with
         | Stable Diffusion and now also with LLaMa, and we're only at the
         | beginning of the road.
         | 
         | Yes, big companies that spend lots of money and are big targets
         | for lawsuits and regulation will exercise a lot of control over
         | what their state-of-the-art products offer. There's no getting
         | around that.
         | 
         | But that's not all we have to look forward to by any means.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | monkpit wrote:
         | I want an open version of this that I can train on any data I
         | choose, can give any prompt I want, and runs on my hardware.
         | 
         | However, I feel like the best and most useful versions of this
         | type of software would (by necessity) only be able to run at a
         | huge scale, cost millions to train, etc.
         | 
         | Now instead of having to worry about the bias of the sources I
         | read, I have to question the bias of the language model based
         | upon who created it.
        
           | kjreact wrote:
           | I would also like to avoid a future where we are slaves to
           | corporate AI. If training the whole model individually isn't
           | feasible, would it be possible to decentralize the training?
        
             | monkpit wrote:
             | That's an interesting idea. Something like Folding at home,
             | or coin mining.
        
           | haldujai wrote:
           | How do we even define 'best and most useful' for a language
           | model?
           | 
           | If you have your own data and problems you are trying to
           | solve I don't think using GPT4 in zero-few shot mode (even
           | with CoT) is necessarily better/higher performing than using
           | a smaller fine-tuned or retrieval augmented model, it
           | certainly wasn't true for GPT3.5 although we don't have as
           | much insight into GPT4.
           | 
           | If we're talking about something as general/open-ended as
           | ChatGPT or a 'poor mans AGI' well yeah, the data curation and
           | preprocessing alone takes a small team to figure out let
           | alone training it. How useful this type of model is when it's
           | still not good enough (i.e. hallucination) to be used in most
           | production cases despite the exorbitant cost in development
           | remains to be seen.
        
         | wsgeorge wrote:
         | > Is there any way we can prevent these models from being
         | abused by large corporations for profit?
         | 
         | Competition, from for-profits large and small, non-profits
         | large and small, and the rest of the open community.
         | 
         | Don't trust what BigLLM(tm) is saying? Here's a dozen others
         | you can ask...
        
           | LesZedCB wrote:
           | competition is what got us the huge corps..?
           | 
           | maybe look for opportunities for cooperation instead.
        
             | wsgeorge wrote:
             | > competition is what got us the huge corps..?
             | 
             | Yes, and consolidation also. Competition also gave us their
             | disruptors.
             | 
             | > maybe look for opportunities for cooperation instead
             | 
             | I hear you, and I don't disagree with your line of
             | thinking, but cooperation to compete is a thing, no?
             | 
             | My point being, an adversarial strategy prevents power from
             | coalescing into the hands of one group, because it actively
             | seeks to disrupt that process. The more diverse competition
             | there is, the more pressure there will be against huge
             | corps.
        
             | satvikpendem wrote:
             | Open source competes through cooperation.
        
               | LesZedCB wrote:
               | could that not simply be stated "open source cooperates"
               | 
               | i find it a little dated that we cognitively frame
               | everything through the myopic lens of competition.
               | 
               | and it's a perfect example where a systemic restructuring
               | can fundamentally rebalance control.
        
               | satvikpendem wrote:
               | Why is it myopic? OSS products and services absolutely do
               | compete against other commercial services, but both
               | improve in the process. It is the same as how biological
               | evolution works. Competition is a good thing.
        
               | LesZedCB wrote:
               | you are assuming competition as the dominant mode
               | a-priori. i'm suggesting it's not the case. and the
               | congnitive re-framing of these interactions can have a
               | net-positive effect on social relations.
        
               | satvikpendem wrote:
               | I'm really not sure what you're saying. All I'm saying is
               | that OSS also has to compete against commercial software.
        
               | LesZedCB wrote:
               | open source doesn't _have to_ compete.
        
               | satvikpendem wrote:
               | Of course not, sure. But it depends on what you're
               | targeting. If you want to dump code into a git repo, slap
               | MIT on the license and never touch it again, you can,
               | I've done so many times. But if you want people to use
               | it, or if you want to earn money from it (Docker, GitLab,
               | Plausible etc) then you will have to compete.
        
         | uejfiweun wrote:
         | > Is there any way we can prevent these models from being
         | abused by large corporations for profit?
         | 
         | No. I mean what, are you gonna get them to halt development?
         | I'd also say heavy-handed regulation is unlikely because the US
         | Government views itself as in a technological competition with
         | China, it won't want to slow things down.
         | 
         | > Will the future be populated by LLMs that all want to control
         | the information I have access to?
         | 
         | Nothing's stopping the open source community, or you yourself,
         | from making your own. You have a computer connected to the
         | internet after all. But it will require lots of technical
         | expertise, data, and money.
        
           | monkpit wrote:
           | I suppose regulation is part of what I had in mind, but it
           | would be really tough to prove anything in court (I feel) so
           | regulation might be impossible.
           | 
           | Maybe we require transparency in how the model is trained,
           | what the prompt is, etc. It's fine if a corporation wants to
           | build something that increases their profits, and they can
           | invest into training the model and use it as a competitive
           | advantage.
           | 
           | But I feel there is some level of disclosure owed to the
           | consumer. Not sure what it would be.
        
       | satvikpendem wrote:
       | I wonder if this is simply how brains evolved too, because we
       | also are multi-modal, and parts of our brain are specifically
       | used for different tasks such that damage in those parts impedes
       | completing said task (while still having some level of
       | neuroplasticity where the brain could try to recover by remolding
       | its neural architecture).
       | 
       | I would not be surprised to see something similar when looking
       | inside the structure of a multi-modal neural network, where
       | certain parts handle certain tasks and other parts handle other
       | tasks.
        
       | tabtab wrote:
       | GPT4 is already out? I just got GTP3. "You bought the wrong bot,
       | silly head!": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdRMVhlNP5I
        
       | 29athrowaway wrote:
       | Each time a new innovation takes place there will be a website
       | talking nonsense about AGI that will get millions of ad print
       | revenue.
       | 
       | Don't click.
        
       | z3c0 wrote:
       | > In the lead up to GPT-4, Sam Altman hinted at higher pricing
       | for smarter models
       | 
       | I think this is all you really need to know about the future of
       | _AGI_.
        
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