[HN Gopher] Scaled-Down California Bullet Train Project $10B ove...
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Scaled-Down California Bullet Train Project $10B over Budget
Author : everybodyknows
Score : 22 points
Date : 2023-03-14 19:23 UTC (3 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (timesofsandiego.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (timesofsandiego.com)
| yalogin wrote:
| Is the economic justification for the project available anywhere
| to read?
| jeffbee wrote:
| https://hsr.ca.gov/about/high-speed-rail-business-plans/
| [deleted]
| cassac wrote:
| 39k per foot, that's impressive!
| AustinDev wrote:
| We'll never have a modern train infrastructure in this country
| at that rate. How does it cost so much?
| cassac wrote:
| At 35 billion, you could buy 700k teslas, and then just let
| everyone drive themselves.
|
| It's probably because the bribes are compounding at each
| level.
| guelo wrote:
| The roads for 700k teslas to drive on aren't free.
| jeffbee wrote:
| Also 700k Tesla aren't enough for 40 million people. This
| math seems easy to me.
| cassac wrote:
| It's a ride share service, so you rent it one way, with
| the expectation it goes each way per day.
|
| So that's 700k * 2 trips * 365 days = 511 million rides
| annually. Even more if people bring passengers.
| cassac wrote:
| But... maybe you are right? Maybe they give everyone in
| the state a bike and then just make a 1 billion dollar
| bike path?
| cassac wrote:
| No, but the roads are already budgeted to be maintained.
| Also the expected ridership is I assume to be composed
| of, at least partially, people who are already using the
| roads.
|
| I just found it funny as a number because 35 bil is such
| a ridiculous amount for a 171 mile train.
| asdff wrote:
| If you think thats high, second avenue subway extension
| in nyc is looking to spend 6 billion to extend 1.5 miles.
| Bluestrike2 wrote:
| For what it's worth, roads clearly _aren 't_ budgeted to
| be maintained. At best, some of them are, with the
| interstate system more likely to be better maintained
| than other types of roads.
|
| The American Society of Civil Engineers annual report
| card reports that over 43% of our existing road system is
| in either poor or mediocre condition as of 2021, and an
| over $435 billion backlog for repairing existing roads
| and $125 billion for bridge repairs.[0] Worse yet, as
| existing infrastructure reaches its planned lifespans, we
| have to dump more money into repairing, extending, and
| replacing it.
|
| Adding more cars only makes the existing challenges
| worse, and accelerates infrastructure aging due to
| increased wear-and-tear. Those added cars also means
| increased congestion, and we have decades of solid
| empirical evidence to show that increasing capacity
| through road widening only creates induced demand. You
| literally cannot build your way out of congestion.
|
| The mess that defines California's HSR project is an
| international embarrassment. We need to fix the legal and
| institutional roadblocks that have helped its costs
| balloon and schedule disintegrate, because the
| alternatives are terrible.
|
| 0. https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/roads-
| infrastr...
| riffic wrote:
| great, now tell us how much money goes to California highway
| expansion and externalities.
|
| https://cal.streetsblog.org/2023/02/15/legislative-analyst-s...
| gretch wrote:
| Is there a point you're trying to make?
|
| This train was originally intended to connect norcal and socal
| (now it's only doing Merced to Bakersfield), so an apt
| comparison would be e.g. I-5 not all highways everywhere.
|
| Also, I did look at your article which cited ~5B a year, so
| that's cheaper than a $100B+ rail that comes out in a few
| decades? That's not to even mention that we can drive on the
| highway today and it's used to transports commerical goods.
| guelo wrote:
| For a 6-lane Interstate highway it costs about $7 million per
| mile in rural areas, $11 million or more per mile in urban
| areas. So $1-2 Billion for a 151 mile segment. So this train is
| 15-30x comparable highway cost.
| jeffbee wrote:
| "Or more" is doing significant work there. Caltrans spent
| $110 million (so far) to add two lanes along 3.3 miles of
| US-101 in the middle of nowhere between Novato and Petaluma.
| That is approximately 14X your bullshit guesstimate.
| asdff wrote:
| You also have to factor in the cost of land acquisition not
| just construction.
| abeppu wrote:
| Is there a way that the state could fund it but give control of
| the project to some other governing body? The California High-
| Speed Rail Authority does not seem up to the task and has made a
| number of questionable decisions. Other countries manage to build
| these kinds of systems and I can't tell if we're struggling
| because we're less competent or more corrupt. I'd be down to
| declare the land under the tracks to be French or Spanish or
| Japanese if we could get them to build the system.
| Mayzie wrote:
| Vox had a good video on the problem:
| https://www.vox.com/videos/2022/7/29/23283654/california-hig...
| Drunk_Engineer wrote:
| "I can't tell if we're struggling because we're less competent
| or more corrupt..."
|
| It is obviously corruption. All project "management" was turned
| over to private consultants. The longer the project drag out,
| the more money they earn. Failure is its own reward.
|
| This is why there have been so many "questionable" decisions.
| All those pergolas, trenches, moving entire highways, building
| aerials through Bakersfield seem like batshit insane decisions
| -- until you realize who profits from all this.
| jeffbee wrote:
| The press can't report on this with straight facts. $35b for the
| central valley segment is the highest estimate in the report. The
| central estimate is a bit less. Also, inflation is a thing.
|
| The other thing the press is incapable of is putting the project
| into context. The context is that Catrans has a $22b budget _per
| year_ to build freeways, and unlike Caltrans CAHSR has a business
| plan, ridership projections, and so forth. $100b on a statewide
| high-speed rail is a much, much better use of my money than any
| Caltrans project in my lifetime.
| Drunk_Engineer wrote:
| That Caltrans budget is for maintaining a huge network of
| roads/highways across the entire state, as well as paying for
| various public transit programs and the highway patrol.
| jeffbee wrote:
| CHP has its own separate $3b budget, and DMV is also separate
| and it gets $1.4b.
| https://ebudget.ca.gov/budget/2023-24/#/Agency/2500
| ciabattabread wrote:
| I don't understand why they couldn't start building this route in
| Los Angeles instead of the middle of nowhere, and have something
| useful operating.
| steponlego wrote:
| Because they'll get more money regardless of whether or not
| there's even a single yard of track laid.
| enahs-sf wrote:
| Losing money but doing it at scale.
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