[HN Gopher] America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan
___________________________________________________________________
America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan
Author : xqcgrek2
Score : 34 points
Date : 2023-03-13 21:17 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
| yalogin wrote:
| This has a very ominous inevitable tone to it. I question how
| wise it is to even publish an article with this tone given how
| grave the consequences of such a war would be. Just reading the
| title sent a chill for me. Any war like that will push the whole
| world into protracted recession and it will be hell for every
| country.
| Invictus0 wrote:
| Is your head in the sand? The US has been preparing for this
| war for years.
| avgcorrection wrote:
| The Press' place is to massage public opinion. It is not their
| place to worry about the consequences of yelling Fire.
| sb618 wrote:
| I definitely appreciate that inflammatory articles might push
| us closer to war but it also seems rather dangerous to cover up
| anything that suggests war. That feels a bit reminiscent of
| Neville Chamberlain before WWII.
| ergonaught wrote:
| I've always found it strange that military planning and training
| is considered newsworthy and informational.
|
| I'd be a whole lot more upset and surprised if USA and China were
| not preparing for a war over Taiwan. It is one of the top 3 most
| likely sparks for war between them.
|
| Which is not to say that it is "likely".
| twblalock wrote:
| Seriously. We should even be training for war with Canada --
| just in case.
|
| Getting ready for a war does not provoke war. Both sides are
| doing it, we know each other are doing it, we do war games all
| the time all over the world and it's fine.
|
| Freaking the public out about how the game is played is the
| real danger. That happened with the balloon incident too -- oh
| gee China spies on us? Yeah, and we spy on them too, and we've
| got way better stuff than balloons, and they know it.
| SapporoChris wrote:
| "War of 1812, when troops from Canada -- then a British
| colony -- marched to Washington, D.C., finished James and
| Dolly Madison's unfinished dinner and burned down the White
| House. " https://www.politico.eu/article/us-war-with-canada-
| cross-bor...
| aborsy wrote:
| I don't think such war will happen. The tensions will be on
| technological "supremacy", political and economic isolation,
| corporate sanctions, and international support, somewhat a Cold
| War.
|
| I also believe China is a peaking (rather than a rising) power at
| this stage. Its growth rate has declined from 14% to less than 5%
| now. China is facing an aging population (due to the one child
| policy of the past), international hostility, internal political
| and numerous other problems.
| ianburrell wrote:
| I hope China recognizes that challenging the West politically
| and economically is much better option. I think the best thing
| China could do would be negotiate with Taiwan for their
| independence. It is funny that option is never suggested as
| possibility.
| unity1001 wrote:
| > I hope China recognizes that challenging the West
| politically and economically is much better option
|
| The Taiwan War is being pushed precisely because China has
| been doing exactly that and the US wants China to stop and do
| what Japan did in 1985 by signing the Plaza Accords. China
| will never do that. Hence, the war...
| ianburrell wrote:
| China is concerned about currency markets so that is why
| they have to invade Taiwan?
|
| China is strong enough that they don't have to listen. It
| doesn't really show you are strong to threaten to invade
| another country to demonstrate strength.
| dole wrote:
| Watching China's expansion into the South China Sea and the
| Spratly Islands over the last number of years make me
| skeptical of them giving up any amount of land.
| avgcorrection wrote:
| > I hope China recognizes that challenging the West
| politically and economically is much better option.
|
| And that's what they're doing?
|
| This isn't a Chinese outlet writing about how the sides are
| "preparing for war".
| ianburrell wrote:
| China continually threatens war over Taiwan.
|
| https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/11/china-renews-
| threat...
| avgcorrection wrote:
| The only quote that used directly violent verbs were:
|
| > A spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office said
| on Wednesday that Beijing was recommitted in the new year
| to "safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity"
| and "smashing plots for Taiwan independence".
|
| That quote links to another _Al J_ article where the
| keywords "plot" and "smash" are not present.
|
| These nation states talk all the time about how "X will
| not go unpunished". But most times that's interpreted as
| things like sanctions or other supposedly non-violent
| means.
| singularity2001 wrote:
| Watch Chinese news to see that China has a very
| militaristic approach
| avgcorrection wrote:
| Watch Fox News to see that Republicans have a very (shall
| we say) "militaristic approach" to the Great Powers
| enemies of the US.
|
| The US is still not going to attack them.
| avgcorrection wrote:
| > Ignore the polite abstractions. The marines are training for a
| war with China, probably precipitated by an invasion of Taiwan.
|
| I guess the consent manufacturing has started. "If shit hits the
| fan, remember: it was probably China who started it."
| ianburrell wrote:
| The initiators of violence are the ones blamed for starting it.
| Like how Russia is blamed for the invasion of Ukraine.
| avgcorrection wrote:
| You must be confused. PRC has not invaded anything.
| spywaregorilla wrote:
| shit hasn't the fan
| NicoJuicy wrote:
| Art of war
|
| Pushing Russia to start a war ( friends with no limits was
| even publicly announced), see how the west reacts, but
| don't interfere enough ( so you won't get involved and have
| more time to identify weak points + weaken the enemy
| support - eg. Availability of artillery supplies).
|
| Base yourself on that.
|
| Or do you think it's a confidence the invasion started just
| after the Beijng Olympics ( ~ propaganda)? In the muddy
| season.
| avgcorrection wrote:
| > Or do you think it's a confidence the invasion started
| just after the Beijng Olympics?
|
| Not a "confidence" no, since there were rumors already a
| year ago that Xi asked Putin to delay the invasion based
| on that.
|
| But it's a leap _from that_ to claiming that China
| indirectly master-minded the invasion of Ukraine.
| ilaksh wrote:
| This is the biggest threat to security globally is that once it
| has been decided that the war is strategic, both sides will use
| propaganda to motivate their population into thinking that the
| war is a moral mission.
|
| There is not going to be anything moral about it. War is caused
| by a total failure of management over a number of years. A big
| part of what is increasing tensions are the real world economic
| problems globally. Then if the nation-states decide that things
| are serious enough they will make the calculation that mass
| murder is a good way to enhance their strategic position.
|
| But there will be lies about China, lies about the United
| States, and a huge propaganda effort to dehumanize the other
| population or focus on whatever bad acts that have come before
| in order to justify war which again is a national policy of
| mass murder.
|
| My take is that the leaders that push this war forward should
| be held to account as criminals themselves since they are
| advocating for millions to be killed.
| ianburrell wrote:
| My worry from debating Chinese nationalists is that they
| think war is necessary, that it will go their way, and that
| it will end.
|
| I totally understand China wanting to be superpower. They
| seem to think that the US is coercing everybody, including
| allies, by force. They think that if US is defeated and they
| can replace them or at least coerce the local area. I wish
| they kept using soft power, that was working well for them.
|
| They talk about Taiwan falling immediately and nobody helping
| them. China is stronger now but even alone Taiwan could put
| up a strong fight. Excluding big change in politics, the US
| will defend Taiwan. China could still win, but it would be
| uncertain. They also ignore the consequences like cutting off
| trade with most of the world.
|
| Finally, I'm most worried about how the war ends. If China
| succeeds in invasion, then war will probably end. But do they
| realize that trade will never return to normal. Or that South
| Korea and Japan will build nuclear weapons if US commitment
| wavers. Also, that there are actions, like attacking US
| mainland, which will escalate the war and make it hard to end
| except in nuclear war.
| skinnymuch wrote:
| > My worry from debating Chinese nationalists is that they
| think war is necessary, that it will go their way, and that
| it will end.
|
| Is this bravado any different than what Europeans and
| Americans regularly do? Look at the imperialism and
| colonizing. Why can't the west leave the world alone? Of
| course Taiwan and Ukraine are serious circumstances but so
| are Yemen, Congo, Palestine, Hawaii, Puerto Rico,
| Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Venezuela, Cuba, Falkan Islands,
| and the hundreds of coups perpetrated. When the west does
| stuff, the world stays out of the way. When any one else
| does anything, all of a sudden it's about them being
| unreasonable compared to us. The major exceptions to this
| have been how the world treats Slavs. They're slowly
| getting closer to being part of the west but the treatment
| vs the hegemonic powers is different.
|
| > They also ignore the consequences like cutting off trade
| with most of the world.
|
| This is primarily the five eyes, EU, and allies? This
| generally is what we consider white people and the
| consequences of colonialism and imperialism. The west is
| only like a billion people.
|
| > attacking US mainland
|
| That would never happen. Why not be worried the US will
| invade mainland China?
| avgcorrection wrote:
| Yep. All true.
| no_wizard wrote:
| Is anyone really equipped to go to war with the USA?
|
| Unrestrained war with the US war machine would
| be....catastrophic, to say the least. I mean for both parties,
| but the US out spends everyone by a wide margin[0] and the US
| military is very advanced and well resourced, and well trained.
| Even if the fighting was just constrained to Taiwan, it would be
| pretty bad for everyone, but I think it would be especially bad
| for China.
|
| Now just for the mental exercise, if we take nukes off the table
| and assume actual, all out, total war, I'm pretty sure the US can
| level just about any country on earth, or at least, we have the
| hubris to believe we can.
|
| With nukes? well, I mean, I had a good life I guess, thats pretty
| apocalyptic, but I'm certain the US would have more than enough
| ICBMs and the like to level an entire country in hours
|
| [0]: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-
| economy/2023/jan/military-...
| curiousgal wrote:
| Maybe you're overestimating the USA the way Russia was
| overestimated. How many actual wars did the USA win? Out of
| Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Gulf War only the
| latter was an actual victory.
| chester195 wrote:
| https://archive.is/rTwVK
| Overtonwindow wrote:
| I disagree. War is too expensive for both countries and no
| calculus beyond lunacy can reason it to be a _positive_
| 1270018080 wrote:
| Russia invaded Ukraine for basically no reason, it still
| happened. If you have enough fervent nationalism in the
| population and an authoritarian government, lunacy isn't going
| to stop anything.
| ashwagary wrote:
| It's awful that the whole world will possibly be dragged into
| China's incomplete civil war because of anxious
| interventionistas.
|
| Is this the tipping point for WWIII or will it be isolated enough
| to not spill over?
| roundandround wrote:
| I don't really see how it can't spill over. For example, I've
| been wondering why China's neighbors wouldn't see Taiwan's
| independence and/or absorption of Chinese naval capability as
| an opportunity in their territorial waters disputes and I think
| it's unlikely none of them would become proxies for (or get
| favorable arms deals from) the US or others interested in
| containing China.
| swamp40 wrote:
| It would be a proxy war, not direct US troop involvement. But
| China says any response from Taiwan will be taken as a direct
| response from the US. So, that could go south in a hurry.
|
| I _think_ Ukraine showed China exactly what the world response
| would be to such an invasion - i.e. shunning, so I doubt this
| would happen except as a way to goad the US into a war. And China
| certainly isn 't ready for that yet.
|
| From the US POV, we are only posturing economically so China
| can't jump ahead of us technologically. I think we are growing
| concerned their AI vision systems might soon allow suicide drones
| that can target US politicians. But that's coming anyway. In
| general, we have finally decided it doesn't make a lot of sense
| to hand them technology that they then turn around and put into
| military hardware that will be used against us.
| [deleted]
| spywaregorilla wrote:
| > I think we are growing concerned their AI vision systems
| might soon allow suicide drones that can target US politicians.
|
| Utter nonsense. This is hardly a meaningful barrier to
| attempting assassinations of US polticians.
| oyashirochama wrote:
| Assassinating a politician in the US typically just makes you
| more enemies compared to the rest of the world. At least if
| your an external factor, if internal that's different.
| sethrin wrote:
| US troops are already involved simply by being in the same
| theater. If you're planning a strike on Taiwan, you would be
| foolish to assume that the US carrier groups are just going to
| sit around while you do that. Therefore any plan for attacking
| Taiwan is necessarily a plan to eliminate that threat. From the
| US perspective, we are absolutely not posturing: we currently
| have lives on the line defending Taiwan, just like we had lives
| on the line defending Berlin. Hopefully these tensions will be
| resolved by other means, but if not...
| avgcorrection wrote:
| The whole world has not _shunned_ Russia over the invasion.
| baal80spam wrote:
| OK, whole/most of the _civilized_ world did.
| rasz wrote:
| Slowly but surely
|
| https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/india-
| to-...
|
| https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-
| business/...
___________________________________________________________________
(page generated 2023-03-13 23:02 UTC)