[HN Gopher] $22B project to provide 8% of UK energy via undersea...
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       $22B project to provide 8% of UK energy via undersea cable from
       North Africa
        
       Author : consumer451
       Score  : 61 points
       Date   : 2023-03-09 22:10 UTC (50 minutes ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (e360.yale.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (e360.yale.edu)
        
       | nl wrote:
       | For those who aren't aware, there is already a 3200km
       | transmission line operating in China:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current
        
       | diordiderot wrote:
       | An excellent video on this project from YouTube's "Just have a
       | think"
       | 
       | https://youtu.be/iJunxkln578
        
       | moralestapia wrote:
       | ~$300 for each person living there. That's a bit steep, honestly.
        
       | peoplearepeople wrote:
       | It always seems odd to me that countries are willing to go across
       | international boundaries for such a vital part of the economy. If
       | they could just be self-sufficient with a load of nuclear power
       | plants then they would have less political leverage problems
        
         | epistasis wrote:
         | The UK has been valiantly trying to build new nuclear, but it's
         | hard to find anybody that can do it, and it's unbelievably
         | expensive if it even does get built.
         | 
         | I think that there was a narrow window in time where labor
         | costs were low enough for nuclear to make sense, but in more
         | advanced economies, highly labor intensive energy sources, as
         | required by nuclear construction, are no longer viable.
         | Advanced manufacturing capabilities have eclipsed construction
         | technology.
        
         | nicoburns wrote:
         | > If they could just be self-sufficient with a load of nuclear
         | power plants
         | 
         | Given that most countries don't have a source of uranium, I
         | don't see how this is any better from a geopolitical security
         | perspective.
        
           | kneebonian wrote:
           | From my understanding you don't need a lot of uranium to run
           | reactors for quite a while. That's one of the reason it is
           | such a promising lead.
        
             | rtkwe wrote:
             | An unfortunate part of human cognition is we're pretty bad
             | at assessing small but widespread and constant
             | risks/damages so the impact of pollution pales in
             | comparison to the mental impact of singular events like the
             | various nuclear disasters or near misses we've had between
             | TMI, Chernobyl, Fukushima, et al. So they receive outsized
             | push back compared to their actual reduced risk. (Also to
             | be fair when a nuclear disaster does happen it renders an
             | area unusable for a lot longer so the events tend to stick
             | in people's memories)
             | 
             | Building them is also unfortunately a many decades long
             | endeavor so we need shorter timeline solutions to bend the
             | curve of climate change. I think a lot of environmentalists
             | have also been burned by long term projects that sit in
             | planning and approval hell for years to decades then get
             | cancelled or funding redirected when a new administration
             | decides to try to make their mark on a project. A similar
             | thing has hampered NASAs Moon and Mars programs where
             | options are pursued and cancelled constantly. SLS is not
             | the first plan for a Moon return NASA has worked on for
             | years it's just the first one that managed to spread the
             | pork around enough to avoid cancellation.
        
           | doodlesdev wrote:
           | You can stock it though, in case foreign countries cut supply
           | short you're not suddendly out of power but instead have time
           | to plan a negotiation or attempt to source it from elsewhere.
        
             | CTDOCodebases wrote:
             | Not so great when the foreign powers decide to bomb the
             | nuclear reactors though.
        
               | demindiro wrote:
               | Or cut the cable.
        
           | cobaltoxide wrote:
           | At least uranium can be stockpiled.
        
           | AngusH wrote:
           | Uranium is a mineral and can be purchased from many places
           | and stored then used as needed.
           | 
           | 15 countries mining it currently: https://en.wikipedia.org/wi
           | ki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_p...
           | 
           | There are also more countries with estimated reserves: https:
           | //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_r...
           | 
           | While an undersea cable requires continuous operation and the
           | agreement from a single country where it starts. If they
           | suddenly decide for whatever reason to turn it off (say
           | they're short of electricity) then the supply is immediately
           | stopped.
        
           | quickthrower2 wrote:
           | The UK presumably does, as it maintains nuclear weapons.
        
             | WJW wrote:
             | The UK does not mine its own uranium though. There used to
             | be a uranium mine in Cornwall but it stopped mining in
             | 1930.
             | 
             | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining_by_country)
        
         | NKosmatos wrote:
         | I fully agree with nuclear fusion power plants, but there is so
         | much free solar power that is currently being "wasted". Nuclear
         | fusion reactors are many decades away and hopefully that's when
         | our global power problems will be (hopefully) solved :-)
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | consumer451 wrote:
         | I very much dislike how these posts often result in a very
         | predicable "but nuclear..." binary argument.
         | 
         | Here is a crazy idea: don't put all your eggs in one basket.
         | Try to do both.
         | 
         | This project only addresses 8% of UK needs, plenty of room for
         | other sources in the portfolio.
         | 
         | How is this a bad thing?
        
           | quickthrower2 wrote:
           | It depends. Hopefully they source say 150% of requirements
           | and not max them out so that losing 8% takes you yo 142% and
           | not a single led gets dimmed. Redundancy. But I also read how
           | it is hard to stop / start generating power on demand so it
           | might be costly to have so much redundancy.
        
         | vkou wrote:
         | This is exactly why France went all-in on nuclear in the 20th
         | century.
         | 
         | (That, and nuclear weapon ambitions.)
        
           | Gwypaas wrote:
           | And learned a very expensive lesson in negative learning by
           | doing.
           | 
           | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014.
           | ..
        
         | frognumber wrote:
         | If I were a planner, I'd go for both.
         | 
         | Impossible in capitalism or with modern politics, but I
         | planning for failure makes a lot of sense to me, and I don't
         | mind having a power grid support 2x capacity.
         | 
         | Same for food, medicine, and general-purpose manufacturing
         | (e.g. machine shops), for that matter.
        
         | kinnth wrote:
         | The UK in particular has a vast abundance of wind power off
         | it's coasts. It makes more sense to double down with 22bn
         | investment in wind!
         | 
         | These solar projects are good to start as they could empower
         | more african nations with cheaper electricty. We just need more
         | electricity everywhere if were going to drop the reliance on
         | oil.
        
           | makomk wrote:
           | The UK has built a huge amount of offshore wind generation -
           | in fact it had the most in the world until quite recently,
           | and is currently second only to China. This just isn't a
           | complete solution because wind is intermittent, and in
           | particular it tends to drop off to nearly nothing during the
           | coldest parts of winter when energy demand is at its highest.
           | All of the solutions to this are about as speculative and
           | questionable as this proposal.
        
           | nicoburns wrote:
           | From what I understand, the UK actually has private companies
           | ready and more than willing to build wind farms with their
           | own money. The government is just inexplicably being slow at
           | handing out the permits.
        
             | adaml_623 wrote:
             | They've (the right wing government) underfunded the
             | government so much there aren't sufficient staff to run the
             | beaucracy. The recent (failed) rocket launch from the UK
             | was massively delayed because of slow government processes
        
             | londons_explore wrote:
             | The market for wind in the UK is unusually profitable due
             | to a quirk of the UK electricity market.
             | 
             | Specifically, the power price across the UK is the same
             | everywhere. However, there isn't infinite transmission
             | capacity. So, if you generate power in one place, but the
             | power network cannot transport it, you get told not to
             | bother producing it, but you still get paid, and you get
             | paid compensation on top.
             | 
             | You know what's better than producing power... being paid
             | to produce power, paid extra compensation, and then not
             | need to actually have those wind turbines spinning (so much
             | reduced maintenance too!).
             | 
             | The government is delaying lots of permits till they can
             | figure out how to change these perverse incentives...
             | Needless to say, the wind industry isn't happy about the
             | fact they might no longer get paid such large amounts, so
             | they're demanding the old scheme be kept in place for
             | existing producers for 25+ years, and having the new
             | pricing rules only apply to new builds...
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | They simply need to divide the country into cost regions
               | based on the bottlenecks and it will work like
               | international power connections. The political problem is
               | making Scotland its own separate region.
               | 
               | Have a look at the regions in for example Sweden which
               | face similar bottlenecks in transmission capacity from
               | north to south.
               | 
               | https://app.electricitymaps.com/map
        
         | micromacrofoot wrote:
         | > It always seems odd to me that countries are willing to go
         | across international boundaries for such a vital part of the
         | economy.
         | 
         | Versus going across international borders for most other
         | aspects of their economy? if the UK stopped international trade
         | it would completely collapse anyway.
        
         | incone123 wrote:
         | This planned link is very long distance, but UK is still part
         | of a European power grid: it's normal for power lines to cross
         | national (or State) borders.
        
         | nottathrowaway3 wrote:
         | Some people don't like nuclear power plants and somehow that's
         | more important to them than national/energy security.
         | 
         | UK (and France) already have the bomb; going renewable here
         | rather than nuclear has nothing to do with proliferation. I
         | don't see how (for the UK) it's anything except people's
         | feelings are hurt by nuclear power plants.
         | 
         | For the rest of Europe maybe it's about proliferation. And
         | maybe economies of scale make tagging along cheaper than local
         | nuclear for Britain.
        
           | Gwypaas wrote:
           | Pure cost. Paying Hinkley Point C $150/MWh for 35 years is
           | just bonkers waste of money. Flamanville 3 is a similarly
           | amazing project.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan.
           | ..
        
             | nottathrowaway3 wrote:
             | Average electricity prices in the U.S. are ~$250/mwh
             | 
             | https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.p
             | h...
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | Which includes the transmission grid. Nuclear costs that,
               | and then you have to build a grid.
        
               | epistasis wrote:
               | Your chart shows residential prices for the total us
               | average ~$140/MWh, not $250/MWh.
               | 
               | Plus, this is the total cost including transmission and
               | distribution, which is roughly half the retail cost.
               | Generation costs average less than $70/MWh, including
               | expensive peaking power in the average.
               | 
               | You want to compare the PS150/MWh to generation costs of
               | the alternatives in the UK, which are a fraction of
               | PS150.
        
             | londons_explore wrote:
             | Yet the spot price of power has been over PS150/MWh for
             | most of the last year...
             | 
             | That deal is starting to look pretty good for the
             | government...
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | A haphazard continent-wide transition from Russian gas,
               | and all we get is nuclear prices for power? So to get it
               | straight, you are proposing that we _always_ should have
               | an energy crisis in Europe?
        
               | londons_explore wrote:
               | The futures market, even 5 years out, doesn't show a
               | return to old prices.
               | 
               | It looks like the market doesn't expect russian gas to
               | ever return.
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | Like an addon of $10-20/MWh. That does not pay for a
               | nuclear plant.
        
         | thrashh wrote:
         | Most countries are small and have to choose between being
         | neighborly but dependent or self-sufficient but much more
         | modest.
         | 
         | The UK, for example, imports nearly half of its food.
        
       | consumer451 wrote:
       | Project's official site: https://xlinks.co/morocco-uk-power-
       | project
        
       | dzhiurgis wrote:
       | I wonder when are we starting to lay cables across longitude so
       | you get solar power when it's night time. Thinking this out loud
       | now - lower night time loads get covered by wind and other
       | renewables.
        
       | andrewstuart wrote:
       | Sounds like an major national security vulnerability.
        
       | yuliyp wrote:
       | I'm amazed by the NIMBYism for the middle of the desert. Yes it's
       | not completely devoid of life and impact, but as far as places
       | for generating solar power go, it's about as good as you're gonna
       | get.
        
       | samwillis wrote:
       | Extensive discussion from last year:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31143636
       | 
       | "UK-Morocco 10GW Renewable Electricity Interconnector Planned"
       | 
       | 110 points, 243 comments
        
       | whywhywhydude wrote:
       | It's insane how these articles somehow conjure up some kind of
       | nonsensical bad for environment arguments. Putting solar panels
       | in the desert is good for the environment. It reduces the ground
       | temperatures and lets more plants and animals survive. It might
       | also slow down further desertification.
        
         | mohamedattahri wrote:
         | I see where you're coming from, and I agree that the arguments
         | highlighted in the article are rather unconvincing, but messing
         | up with ecosystems ALWAYS triggers unintended consequences.
         | Some might be good, others terrible.
         | 
         | I wouldn't be as definitive about the "good" in it as you make
         | it sound.
        
         | threeseed wrote:
         | Their arguments really are ridiculous.
         | 
         | It ignores the fact that climate change is disproportionally
         | going to affect Africa and that doing nothing does not mean the
         | status quo remains for nomadic tribes.
         | 
         | It means more desertification, less grazing area and greater
         | poverty.
        
         | kinnth wrote:
         | This!
        
         | Retric wrote:
         | It's different, but hard to say if it's better or worse
         | globally. Dust from the Sahara plays a major role in cloud
         | formation and transporting nutrients to the Amazon basin.
         | 
         | I doubt it would be significant for the Amazon in the short
         | term, but it could mean less frequent but larger tropical
         | storms in the mid Atlantic which then pound the east coast.
        
       | blippage wrote:
       | I have to say that this is one of the dumbest ideas I've heard in
       | a long time. Like "you have to be dropped on your head as a baby"
       | dumb.
       | 
       | Let's say the cable is 5000 miles long. How much power
       | dissipation is there going to be over this distance?
        
         | _Microft wrote:
         | According to the article, it is 2300 miles, that is
         | approximately 3700km. Losses for HVDC power lines are in the
         | low single digit percent per 1000km.
         | 
         | China already built a 12GW connection over 3000km for example.
         | That was not a submarine cable, though.
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current
        
         | nl wrote:
         | > How much power dissipation is there going to be over this
         | distance?
         | 
         | Not much, and it should be efficient enough to make economic
         | sense.
         | 
         | Note that the article says it is 3700km, not 5000 miles.
         | 
         | Ultra high voltage lines lose about 3.5% per 1000km[1]
         | (although this is improving). In China they have multiple
         | 3000km+ lines, eg[2].
         | 
         | Some estimates indicate the US could reduce generation
         | emissions by at least 80% with better long distance
         | transmission capacity[3].
         | 
         | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current
         | 
         | [2] https://spectrum.ieee.org/chinas-state-grid-corp-crushes-
         | pow...
         | 
         | [3] https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2921
        
       | WatchDog wrote:
       | Singapore is building a similar project, a large solar array in
       | Australia connected by undersea cable[0].
       | 
       | I think it makes a lot more sense for a city state like
       | Singapore, with very limited space to build their own power
       | infrastructure.
       | 
       | But for a country like the UK, just the energy security risk
       | alone seems dangerous, especially after what we have seen with
       | the Russian gas pipelines.
       | 
       | These cables can easily be attacked, any country with a semi-
       | competent navy could probably pull it off covertly, which would
       | make attribution difficult.
       | 
       | Although I guess the US could have been a little more covert
       | about their efforts[1].
       | 
       | [0]: https://suncable.energy/
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/02/09/ftaz-f09.html
        
       | quickthrower2 wrote:
       | Can anyone comment on how sane this is for energy security?
       | Probably OK if this is not required energy but is used with local
       | redundancy.
        
       | seanalltogether wrote:
       | > The cost of the proposed 10,500-megawatt Xlinks project is
       | expected to be $22 billion, half for the solar and wind energy
       | farms and half for the cables.
       | 
       | I thought the UK had too much wind energy as is, why would they
       | be importing more?
        
         | diordiderot wrote:
         | The wind blows consistently at night and infrequently during
         | the day in that region.
         | 
         | Solar during the day and wind at night for, relatively to
         | solar, steady energy generation
        
         | Gwypaas wrote:
         | It is all about correlation between sources. The wind power
         | where it connects to is more weakly correlated to UK's existing
         | wind compared to for example Danish.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | 8jy89hui wrote:
       | This sounds like the output of a LLM. No actual reasoning or
       | thought.
        
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