[HN Gopher] Cargo cult science (1974)
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Cargo cult science (1974)
        
       Author : sherilm
       Score  : 120 points
       Date   : 2023-03-06 14:41 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (calteches.library.caltech.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (calteches.library.caltech.edu)
        
       | college_physics wrote:
       | Cargo cult tech: visit Silicon Valley, copy some striking
       | behavioral traits not practiced in your little corner of the
       | planet and hope that you will "eat the world" somehow.
        
         | 908B64B197 wrote:
         | > copy some striking behavioral traits not practiced in your
         | little corner of the planet
         | 
         | If only they did.
         | 
         | Entrepreneurship, Great Universities, celebration of failures
         | (having 2 failed startups is seen as a badge of honor to VCs)
         | and privately administered capital (low tax rate!) willing to
         | take risk. These are the elements vital to any potential
         | foreign Silicon Valley competitors and they only exist here in
         | America.
         | 
         | All of the "Silicon Valley of X" initiatives I've seen were
         | either led by bureaucrats with no ties to the valley or by who
         | had little to no understanding of these fundamental traits. It
         | was beanbag chairs and people writing JS on MacBooks (for 1/3
         | of what people who actually came to the valley made).
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | It seems like VCs are doing a lot of cargo cult tech.
         | 
         | Cargo cults work if you have enough money. Throw it to the wall
         | with adequate speed for large enough amount of time and some
         | very few will stick. Then you can rest on the laurels that
         | Fortuna gave you. This is why Silicon Valley cannot be
         | replicated elsewhere, except perhaps Switzerland or some
         | filthy-rich Petrocountry.
        
         | narag wrote:
         | Oh, the classic we're going to create Europe's SV in ___ you
         | know.
        
           | bjornsing wrote:
           | But those only copy the cultural aspects that favor those
           | doing the copying, and since it's conventional-minded people
           | that copy and the "secret" SV ingredient is putting
           | independent-minded people in charge the whole process is
           | forever doomed to failure...
           | 
           | But it keeps a lot of bureaucrats busy, and (very) gainfully
           | employed.
        
             | narag wrote:
             | I enjoyed very much this blog series and the video:
             | 
             | https://steveblank.com/secret-history/
             | 
             | Unfortunately some people tends to cherry pick their
             | favourite details. In my country there's a politician that
             | says that the iPhone development was paid by US government.
        
       | RobotToaster wrote:
       | "Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts" - Richard
       | Feynman
        
         | poszlem wrote:
         | A related quote that I always loved: "Without education, we are
         | in a horrible and deadly danger of taking educated people
         | seriously."
        
           | learnedSloth wrote:
           | Learning would work at least as well IMO. One can be educated
           | to taking educated people seriously.
        
         | analog31 wrote:
         | I've been in roomfuls of people who believed in the ignorance
         | of experts, and they were not scientists.
        
         | lisper wrote:
         | You do realize that was intended to be humorous, yes? It's true
         | that one should not defer blindly to authority, but experts
         | nonetheless know some things that non-experts don't. That's
         | what makes them experts.
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | > but experts nonetheless know some things that non-experts
           | don't
           | 
           | Oh, yeah, engineering and all the other practices are rooted
           | on this.
           | 
           | Science is not.
        
             | lisper wrote:
             | Science may not be "rooted" in this, but it is nonetheless
             | still a pretty good bet that a scientific expert knows
             | things that non-experts don't.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | Well, if he works assuming he knows those things, he will
               | fail in doing science.
               | 
               | (Unless by those things you mean the scientific method,
               | because scientists usually practice that one.)
        
           | jhbadger wrote:
           | Exactly. And it was about experts questioning the beliefs of
           | other experts, particularly experts in the past. Galileo
           | questioning Aristotle. Einstein questioning Newton. Not about
           | random quacks thinking they have opinions equal to the
           | experts.
        
       | hinkley wrote:
       | Sabine Hossenfelder basically posted a rant about particle
       | physicists on Youtube last week, about how they are doing science
       | wrong.
       | 
       | Basically she said you are supposed to change your theory based
       | upon results that don't match the theory, and what they have been
       | doing for decades is looking at gaps in the results, and
       | imagining particle theories that don't alter the expected results
       | in the currently explored energy levels, just in the unexplored
       | ones. Then when people get funding to look into these
       | frontiers/gaps, and find that everything looks the same, they
       | adjust their theories to push them out into the gaps.
       | 
       | That's not Science, she emphatically states.
       | 
       | For myself it sounds like saying, "well you don't know Unicorns
       | don't exist because we haven't looked everywhere, what if they're
       | in <unexplored forests in the Congo>?" Then the Congo gets
       | explored and they say, "well maybe they're in Antarctica".
        
         | sorokod wrote:
         | This one? If so I would not call it a rant, she pulls no
         | punches which is a positive thing.
         | 
         | "What's Going Wrong in Particle Physics?"
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu4mH3Hmw2o
        
         | lynx23 wrote:
         | Just unsub her. She picked up a lot of people by her bold way
         | of presenting. Most discover after a while that she isnt worth
         | watching.
        
           | Loquebantur wrote:
           | You seem to imply, most people were smart. But statistically,
           | most people are not.
           | 
           | Hossenfelder critzises physics. That is a good thing to do,
           | regardless of whether she is always right about it.
           | 
           | Being smart, you can learn from her even if she is not. At
           | the very least about how to present better.
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | I'm not even subbed. The things I am subbed to just don't
           | generate new content at the rate that I hit youtube so I end
           | up with suggestions.
        
         | imranq wrote:
         | I don't see what the problem with Sabine's analysis is? I
         | thought it was great.
         | 
         | Shouldn't particle physicists have more expectations of what
         | they expect to find rather than we want to find X and we are
         | going to search the entire energy frontier to find it. The
         | problem is that the energy frontier is limitless so the ROI
         | could be extremely poor unless we had a good idea of what we
         | expect
        
           | bjornsing wrote:
           | > The problem is that the energy frontier is limitless so the
           | ROI could be extremely poor unless we had a good idea of what
           | we expect
           | 
           | AKA the full employment theorem of particle physics...
        
         | HPsquared wrote:
         | If thousands of people have careers in unicorn-hunting, that's
         | what will happen.
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | While watching her complain I kept thinking, "publish or
           | die".
        
             | js8 wrote:
             | Publish (in a scientific journal) or publish (on Youtube).
             | No hiding from the invisible freedom of the market.
        
             | LudwigNagasena wrote:
             | I don't get that complaint. It's like hearing a software
             | engineer complaining "write code or get fired", yeah, well,
             | that's your literal job?
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Have you been reading the threads about the
               | reproducibility crisis that pop up here regularly?
               | Essentially some people worry we have more people who
               | need to write papers than we can sustain with our current
               | research horizon, and people are making shit up or at
               | least being overly optimistic.
               | 
               | As Feynman used to say, "The most important thing is not
               | to fool yourself, and you're the easiest person to fool."
        
               | LudwigNagasena wrote:
               | To all reproducibility problems I say "publish _more_ ".
               | Do you plan to do a study? Register it and publish your
               | methodology before data collection. Have you collected
               | data? Publish it. Have you finished the study? Believe it
               | or not, publish it.
               | 
               | Do you want to do a 20 year long study on a particle
               | collider built specifically for you right after finishing
               | your PhD? Well, sorry, you have to build your reputation
               | so that society sees that you are not one of those people
               | who "are making shit up or at least being overly
               | optimistic".
        
         | lanza wrote:
         | Eh, your analogy isn't apt. The problem in physics is that the
         | space of possible theories has been searched so exhaustively
         | that what these physicists are doing is just about the only
         | choice.
         | 
         | To make your analogy close to physics -- imagine you found a
         | unicorn horn and can tell from the biological makeup that it is
         | indeed a horn grown from some sort of horse-like mammal. If you
         | searched 99.9999% of the earth for animals that might have
         | grown that horn and found nothing then the best thing to do
         | would be to continue looking within that 0.00001%.
         | 
         | We can't figure out what comes after the standard model of
         | particle physics. But we know it's wrong. e.g. we know black
         | holes exist and something has to happen within them. But we
         | don't have a theory that can predict what that is. e.g. we
         | found a unicorn horn. So we have to desperately search for it.
         | 
         | Hossenfelder is right that it's shitty to have to keep pushing
         | the energy boundaries in which we hope we'll see some
         | interesting behavior. But there's literally nothing else to do.
         | We've searched 99.99999% of earth and there's no unicorn. Do we
         | start denying the existence of the unicorn horn that we're
         | holding?
        
           | ikrenji wrote:
           | idk the amount of experiments / work vying for funding is far
           | bigger than what can be funded. and if a big chunk of the
           | funds is allocated to building bigger accelerators then a lot
           | of experiments or other work might not get funded. im not
           | saying its better to fund other projects over the next big
           | accelerator or dark matter detector, but i dont think its
           | right to say there is nothing else to do besides that...
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | Things are more complicated than that.
         | 
         | Something is there causing those phenomena. People have a
         | theory that it may be unicorns, so they are out looking for
         | unicorns. Those are supposed to be hard to find, and people are
         | still searching on the hardest possible places that can hold
         | them. It may also not be unicorns, on what case nobody has any
         | idea what it may be. Some people are trying to make such
         | theories, but none got a good one yet.
         | 
         | On this level of detail, there is nothing wrong at all with any
         | party of the above. All of the problems are with finer details.
        
           | Tostino wrote:
           | It matters when the limited resources are spent chasing
           | unicorns that are vanishing unlikely to actually be there.
           | 
           | That is part of the argument. Those dollars could go other
           | places than these giant particle accelerators that haven't
           | shown anything much since the Higgs Boson, and no theories
           | are more than guessing that we will.
        
         | willis936 wrote:
         | Serial contrarian jumps on table and shouts. More at 11.
         | 
         | A telltale sign of a crank is attacking career scientists,
         | which is her brand. What insight is she offering? Destroying is
         | easy, creating is hard. Lies spread faster than truth. In
         | general she is a force of confusion rather than enlightenment.
         | It's too bad because she seems capable, if only she'd follow
         | through rather than chase headlines.
        
           | precompute wrote:
           | A "Career Scientist" is very, very bad news!
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | A career contrarian can be even worse. A career scientist
             | actually needs to justify their output, to their peers and
             | the people signing the cheques.
             | 
             | And if not career scientists, who exactly do you think
             | should be making a living... Doing research?
             | 
             | Undergrads? The admins? The timecube guy? Nobody?
             | 
             | There's a lot of problems with science as it's done today,
             | but that snipe is a banal, tribalistic take that is all-
             | too-common.
        
               | precompute wrote:
               | That would've been a great reply had the title of the
               | main post not been "Cargo Cult Science".
               | 
               | For me, a "career scientist" is someone that publishes
               | papers solely to hold a position at an org / institute /
               | uni / etc (yes, yes, everyone needs food on the table...
               | not the point here. One can still have integrity). The
               | career scientist couldn't care less about being right,
               | only about how many citations he's gonna get and whether
               | anyone's going to discover any flaws in his paper.
        
           | adamrezich wrote:
           | > A telltale sign of a crank is attacking career scientists
           | 
           | yeah, she should've known better than to attack a protected
           | class
        
           | andrei_says_ wrote:
           | Any reason to frame this argument as contrarian? Apart from
           | your decision to label the author so - presumably for the
           | sake of legitimizing your argument?
        
           | phkahler wrote:
           | >> What insight is she offering?
           | 
           | For a while she was offering an honest look at a field going
           | nowhere, and suggestions as to how they might better spend
           | time and money.
           | 
           | Now I think she's just profiting from her new popularity by
           | doing a not so good science/tech show.
        
         | college_physics wrote:
         | the thing is that this pattern of pushing to unexplored energy
         | levels _did_ work before. Unicorns _were_ found in the
         | unexplored forests of Congo. In fact an entire zoo of unicorns
         | of all shapes and forms was found, an incredible achievement
         | that stands among the most important stuff our gray-tinted gel
         | has managed to internalize about the universe. You can 't blame
         | modern day particle physicists for being born late for the
         | Unicorn chasing party...
         | 
         | so the argurment now is, for how much longer is it reasonable
         | to be roaming difficult terrains in the hope that we might have
         | a repeat miracle? Its practically impossible to answer. "All
         | Unicorns have been discovered" has been a scientist's cry as
         | far back as Laplace.
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | The last time we found something that was predicted by the
           | Standard Model was 1983, wasn't it? That's 40 years.
           | 
           | edit: her complaint is that once funding sources realize that
           | 'particle physicists shill ridiculous ideas for research
           | grants', all of the money dries up and won't return for at
           | least a generation or two. That's an existential threat to
           | the field. That sounds like a legitimate complaint to me.
           | Unfortunately she's also shining a spotlight on the thing
           | she's worried about other people noticing.
        
             | Tostino wrote:
             | > The last time we found something that was predicted by
             | the Standard Model was 1983, wasn't it?
             | 
             | The Higgs Boson was found in 2012 by the LHC and was
             | predicted by the standard model.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Higgs et al didn't just predict the boson though, right?
               | His team explained other properties of particle physics
               | and their model also predicted a particle.
        
             | akiselev wrote:
             | _> The last time we found something that was predicted by
             | the Standard Model was 1983, wasn 't it? That's 40 years._
             | 
             | IANAPhysicist so correct me if I'm wrong but the last time
             | we found something predicted [1] by the Standard Model was
             | the Higgs Boson in 2012. Before that it was the Tau
             | neutrino and the quark-gluon plasma in 2000, the top quark
             | in 1995, and then (the discovery I think you're referring
             | to) the W and Z bosons in 1983
             | 
             | [1] we mean experimental confirmation, right?
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Also not a physicist, but I think the distinction being
               | made here is that Higgs et al explained existing
               | phenomenon that did not make sense within the existing
               | theory, and oh by the way if we're correct we've also
               | created a hole in the standard model where a particle
               | exists with certain properties that were a bit nebulous.
               | 
               | For instance special relativity explains gravitational
               | lensing and predicted that frame dragging would also be
               | discovered, but also explained other problems. The
               | theories that make a physicist's day seem to tie the past
               | to the present and the present to the future:
               | 
               | This happened, we don't know why. Here's a theory that
               | explains those measurements. Here's a prediction we can
               | test now/with a billion dollars that will corroborate my
               | theory, and here are some new consequences of the theory
               | that require <future tech> to be sure that this is 'true'
               | instead of an accident of math. Like atomic clocks or
               | giant particle accelerators.
        
               | staunton wrote:
               | > special relativity explains gravitational lensing
               | 
               | You mean general relativity
        
             | college_physics wrote:
             | > That's 40 years.
             | 
             | Is that a lot? On what basis could we decide?(1) I am not
             | saying it isn't, I am just saying it is a rather subjective
             | call which sort of looks at the prior pace of discoveries
             | and extrapolates a judgement.
             | 
             | (1) it took more than that from the first gravitational
             | wave detector to an actual discovery
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | I'm going to start repeating myself in separate replies
               | here.
               | 
               | Einstein didn't predict gravitational waves as a
               | standalone theory. Gravitational waves are a prediction
               | of General Relativity. General Relativity was shown to be
               | plausible based on data already at hand and data they
               | could collect.
               | 
               | Gravity waves and lensing and frame dragging all confirm
               | what we already suspected to be true. Which is good and
               | bad news because they increase the corroborating evidence
               | for an existing theory, and they take out huge chunks of
               | opportunity for some other theory to explain the same
               | phenomenon but introduce new loopholes or consequences
               | that let us do new things like build Foundation power
               | supplies (nuclear reactors the size of gumballs) or FTL
               | travel or explain why galaxies move 'wrong'.
        
         | learnedSloth wrote:
         | > For myself it sounds like saying, "well you don't know
         | Unicorns don't exist because we haven't looked everywhere, what
         | if they're in <unexplored forests in the Congo>?" Then the
         | Congo gets explored and they say, "well maybe they're in
         | Antarctica".
         | 
         | In India:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Indian_One_Horned_Rhino.j...
        
         | theurerjohn3 wrote:
         | Things like this make me want to read Against Method [1]. Like,
         | yeah that seems 'not science' in one serious sense, but also
         | not really? It falls into what I understand of Kuhn's 'normal
         | science'. Slightly adjusting their theories to explain existing
         | data is exactly what you should expect scientists to do, until
         | the gaps get so big no adjustments are sufficiently concise.
         | 
         | For a defense of the 'unicorns in unexplored forests', that was
         | pretty much the approach that led to the discovery of most of
         | the standard model.
         | 
         | Plus, given dark matter and dark energy, we know something must
         | be out there, even if its not unicorns, there's something.
         | 
         | 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Against_Method
        
         | User23 wrote:
         | Feynman mentions a similar point in _QED_ when he talks about
         | the  "science" of proton decay. The proton hasn't had the
         | courtesy to actually decay in an experiment, so all they do is
         | keep publishing increasingly high lower bounds on the proton's
         | half-life.
         | 
         | It's fascinating that someone can make a career out of a
         | phenomenon not being observed.
        
           | analog31 wrote:
           | Folks talk about the lack of support for things like
           | replication studies and the publication of negative results
           | in the life sciences, as contributing to the widely
           | proclaimed replication crisis.
           | 
           | Establishing a solid negative result that rules out
           | hypotheses is worthwhile if unglamorous.
           | 
           | Citing an upper bound on the half-life is all that can be
           | credibly reported. It's how you put an error bar on something
           | that's non-negative but consistent with zero.
        
       | low_tech_love wrote:
       | His analogy of teaching resonated too much with me. I have been
       | feeling exactly that for a couple of years, and it feels scarily
       | like when I abandoned the belief in god many years ago. There is
       | that nagging feeling I can't shake that, no matter how I look at
       | it, I can't negate the null hypothesis that _organized education
       | is basically useless_.
       | 
       | Don't get me wrong, I don't think educational institutions
       | shouldn't exist; surely smart people need a place to go and do
       | things and get together and work. The point to me is that,
       | whatever it is that smart people are doing, they'd mostly do that
       | anyway no matter what kind of _education_ they're getting.
       | 
       | Whenever I bring it up with colleagues, I usually get into heated
       | arguments where I become the 1 in an invariably N-to-1 aggressive
       | debate. Plus, my wife is a primary school teacher with a Master
       | degree in Education who loves teaching, so obviously that is a
       | very delicate subject to bring up at home. I have noticed that
       | people like her, who love teaching, usually have a very emotional
       | attachment to it from their own personal experiences and how they
       | see education as transformative, and that makes any kind of
       | objective research on teaching become very hard to do. It's
       | almost like teaching is such a holy subject that any teaching
       | _has_ to be good, and criticizing it is like defending
       | imperialism or capitalism or rich people or something like that
       | (it doesn't help that my wife came from a very poor background
       | and got out of that through education practice, and has teached
       | most of her career in poor neighborhoods; that makes a delicate
       | subject even more touchy).
       | 
       | My personal opinion is that I am only human and seeing myself as
       | some kind of "savior through teaching" is unfair, to me and to
       | others (yes, I do some teaching too). Most of the time I focus on
       | trying to give smart students a platform to grow, and while I
       | also try to motivate the other students as much as I can (I do
       | believe you can "fish" some of them out of the pool), I don't
       | usually pull my hair or lose sleep over them. One, because I
       | don't feel like I have the right to keep patronizing people as if
       | I know what's objectively better for them; lots of people out
       | there are doing much better than me without formal education.
       | Second, because I do not have the illusion that I (or most other
       | teachers) know a really good teaching method that can make a
       | significant difference. It would be like losing sleep because a
       | glass of holy water that I blessed did not save a cancer patient.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | smogcutter wrote:
         | This is a lot of patronizing hair tearing over what amounts to
         | a pretty banal HN greatest hit: "intelligent" people don't
         | really need school, and everyone else can get fucked.
        
           | atleastoptimal wrote:
           | Yeah, he seems to be making it a matter of "well the smart
           | people, the ones who really matter don't need education, so
           | all the sub 99th percentile students don't really matter
           | because the smart ones aren't benefitting"
           | 
           | So teaching kids to read, understand logical inference,
           | showing them different parts of the world and how to look at
           | it, doesn't matter because the wonderful gifted kids would
           | have happened upon those insights anyway? It seems pretty
           | reductive to assume the point of education is just to foster
           | a small cadre of geniuses.
        
       | sebstefan wrote:
       | If you stumble upon a website that makes the stylistic choice
       | that text should take the whole width of your whole screen, you
       | can toggle the "Reader view" feature in Firefox to put it back
       | into a more usual format (F9 on Windows).
       | 
       | If you use Chrome-based browsers, there's bookmarklets (bookmarks
       | with a `javascript:` URI)
       | javascript:(function(){var bod =
       | document.getElementsByTagName("body")[0]; bod.style.margin =
       | "40px auto"; bod.style.maxWidth = "40vw"; bod.style.lineHeight =
       | "1.6"; bod.style.fontSize = "18px"; bod.style.color = "#444";
       | bod.style.padding = "0 10px"; })();
        
         | teddyh wrote:
         | > _toggle the "Reader view" feature in Firefox to put it back
         | into a more usual format (F9 on Windows)._
         | 
         | Ctrl-Alt-R on Linux.
        
         | kken wrote:
         | Stylistic choice? Isn't that literally basic html the way it
         | was meant to be used? I think you were supposed to display it
         | in an actual browser window.
        
         | roelschroeven wrote:
         | Those websites use the full width of your browser _window_ ,
         | not your whole _screen_ (on desktop at least; on mobile the
         | story is different). That means that you, who has control over
         | your window, have full control over how wide you want the text
         | to be.
        
       | debacle wrote:
       | Humans are innately imaginative outside of the bounds of reality.
       | Most people I know believe in things that aren't real, whether it
       | be crystals, chakras, essential oils, random mythologies about
       | random things.
       | 
       | Most interestingly, these are generally weak beliefs strongly
       | held. You'll never convince these people that they've divorced
       | themselves from reality, and you have nearly nothing to gain from
       | trying.
       | 
       | Psychologists, doctors, lawyers, sitting congresspeople, etc.
       | This isn't something that Facebook moms have a monopoly on.
       | 
       | We are really bad at recognizing our own flights of fancy (and,
       | of course, recognizing what we're really bad at).
        
         | derwiki wrote:
         | I thought essential oils were just concentrated versions of the
         | original? Eg I use orange essential oil to make my own air
         | freshener spray.
        
           | TOMDM wrote:
           | When people talk about essential oils in contexts like these,
           | they're most likely referring to some people having the
           | belief that they have medicinal properties; can cure autism
           | etc.
        
             | acidburnNSA wrote:
             | Lots of people believe essential oils can cure cancer. Any
             | big oncology center has stories about people who show up
             | presenting horrible symptoms well beyond what's normally
             | seen. They spent 2 years just doing essential oils or
             | whatever (often encouraged by some a quack) on some readily
             | treatable thing and when they do finally give in and come
             | to the ER it's basically too late.
        
               | TOMDM wrote:
               | Tragedies like these make me very hesitant about
               | "harmless" falsehoods.
               | 
               | I also wonder what cancer survival rates look like if you
               | filter people who self select out of conventional
               | healthcare for a period of time like your example above.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | I wonder if belief in alternate medicine correlates with
               | unaffordable healthcare. It is much easier to believe
               | that there is a better way if the correct procedure would
               | ruin you financially.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Uh, placebos work, and different placebos may work better for
         | different people!
        
           | themodelplumber wrote:
           | Yep. And given a significant problem and a placebo, would you
           | rather:
           | 
           | 1) Not use the placebo, because even though it seems to work
           | for you, it's been scientifically shown in trials to do
           | nothing
           | 
           | 2) Use the placebo, because it seems to work; somehow get
           | good results
           | 
           | A huge number of people will choose #1. They are extremely
           | close to cargo cult without even realizing it.
           | 
           | I'd say that if there's a pos/neg polarization to cargo cult,
           | they are on the negative side, looking for things to reject
           | in culty ways. But whether you're consuming product or
           | rejecting it, the same shaky mindsets apply.
        
           | Jensson wrote:
           | So we hook up ChatGPT to procedurally generate medicine
           | sounding names to sugar pills, and then figure out which name
           | gives the best placebo effect in patients? Then we just
           | rotate some of the better ones in patients to maximize the
           | placebo effect, when they say the effect wears off they get a
           | new name on the pill they take.
        
         | narag wrote:
         | _Most people I know believe in things that aren 't real,
         | whether it be crystals, chakras, essential oils, random
         | mythologies about random things._
         | 
         | You're using known pseudo-science, magic examples.
         | 
         | Do you want to have real fun? Try using computer science fads
         | or political ideologies. For every new age belief, there's an
         | even more ridiculous one, based on the same evidence (none) and
         | hurting people and businesses. Compared to those, crystals are
         | harmless.
        
         | shagmin wrote:
         | In the book Sapiens it builds on this idea for myths lots of
         | people believe in, or "shared fictions" or artificial truths or
         | whatever you want to call it. Like money for example, it's only
         | worth anything as long as people believe it has purchasing
         | power, even if really it's just collections of 0s and 1s or
         | symbols printed on textiles. Extrapolate that idea to many
         | other things people collectively believe in, and that let's us
         | build stable societies.
        
         | orgels_revenge wrote:
         | Well said. For me, a person who admittedly has some pretty far-
         | out beliefs/theories, it's because there is generally no
         | penalty for having these beliefs. Sure, at work where things
         | count, I make sure my theories adhere to reality. But when I'm
         | out chilling in nature? My goal then is to have fun, and
         | entertaining crazy ideas is my idea of a good time. People who
         | have to be correct all the time are kind of missing out and
         | expending a lot of useless energy.
         | 
         | Plus, the universe is so wild that even modern science probably
         | doesn't cut as deep as we think it does.
        
           | themodelplumber wrote:
           | I noticed that generally, people who describe themselves like
           | you don't use the "believe/not believe" phrasing, at least
           | not with so much intensity.
           | 
           | At the same time, a lot of cargo cultists are looking to
           | relax and turn on the "just believe in something whole-hog"
           | autopilot.
           | 
           | They don't even like exploring details that are interesting,
           | because it muddies the waters around the big Belief question.
        
           | anonymous_sorry wrote:
           | But surely there's a difference between entertaining crazy
           | ideas, which can be fun and an exercise in creativity, and
           | elevating them to beliefs?
           | 
           | I wonder if it stems from discomfort at the admitting, even
           | to ourselves, that there are things we don't know.
           | 
           | For me, it's not so much about being correct all the time, as
           | just avoiding being wrong.
        
       | weberer wrote:
       | >I say that's also important in giving certain types of
       | government advice. Supposing a senator asked you for advice about
       | whether drilling a hole should be done in his state; and you
       | decide it would he better in some other state. If you don't
       | publish such a result, it seems to me you're not giving
       | scientific advice. You're being used. If your answer happens to
       | come out in the direction the government or the politicians like,
       | they can use it as an argument in their favor; if it comes out
       | the other way, they don't publish it at all. That's not giving
       | scientific advice.
       | 
       | We saw this just recently when the EU tried to hide a study that
       | showed piracy actually increased game sales. I wonder what other
       | studies are being suppressed because they don't fit the
       | narrative.
       | 
       | https://www.ghacks.net/2017/09/22/inconvenient-eu-piracy-stu...
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | superkuh wrote:
       | You see this constantly in information technology contexts as
       | well. People who at work, when required to work with many other
       | people on the same project which itself is of a larger scale,
       | then bring kubernetes style containers and ideas about
       | "deployment" home to their personal webserver. And this would be
       | fine, silly, recreation if only they didn't write up articles on
       | "How to host from home" that described their k8/etc/etc setup
       | like it was required in this new context.
       | 
       | Basically any time you see the word "deployal" outside of a
       | business or institutional IT context you're looking at cargo cult
       | behavior.
        
       | dang wrote:
       | Related:
       | 
       |  _Cargo Cult Science (1974)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26563567 - March 2021 (69
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Cargo Cult Science (1974)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21120637 - Sept 2019 (33
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Cargo cult data science_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14919263 - Aug 2017 (40
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Cargo Cult Science (1974)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13290107 - Dec 2016 (37
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Cargo Cult Science (1974)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11669004 - May 2016 (38
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Richard Feynman: Cargo Cult Science (1974)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6543791 - Oct 2013 (62
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Feynman 's Cargo Cult Science_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1629571 - Aug 2010 (25
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Cargo Cult Science by Richard Feynman (.PDF)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=993150 - Dec 2009 (4
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Cargo Cult Science, by Richard Feynman (1974)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=723140 - July 2009 (17
       | comments)
        
       | bjornsing wrote:
       | I find myself thinking of this speech more and more often. It
       | seems to apply to more and more of society, as I see it. The
       | scariest versions I've personally come across is Cargo Cult
       | Medicine and Cargo Cult Courts...
        
         | Loquebantur wrote:
         | The central problem is the methodology of science not being
         | taught explicitly anywhere.
         | 
         | It should be part of the school curriculum, instead a
         | scientism-version is part of folklore.
        
           | staunton wrote:
           | There isn't even such a thing as "the methodology of
           | science". People disagree about it and it is constantly
           | evolving. Who should write that curriculum?
           | 
           | Sure, there's a lot of common ground that could be taught
           | (and it is taught in some places, we read some Popper in high
           | school). But it's also very abstract, difficult to teach
           | without extensive examples and of very limited use in most
           | jobs. Hardly "the central problem".
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | poszlem wrote:
       | In my opinion, we have deviated from the true essence of
       | "Science" by using it to determine "what ought to be" instead of
       | focusing on answering the fundamental question of "what is."
       | 
       | I know that this is not particularly in vogue now to say, but
       | social sciences especially did a whole lot to discredit the idea
       | of science being something that is objective. They pretend to "do
       | science" but instead use it to either "Launder Ideas"
       | (https://www.wsj.com/articles/idea-laundering-in-academia-115...)
       | or pure activism (for example, a paper published in Hipatia
       | suggested that male students should be trained to propagate the
       | feminist message, much like the way viruses spread
       | https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315583936_Women's_S....
       | 
       | Not even going to mention the Grievance studies affair.
       | 
       | I have embraced accelerationism and hope that "science" (and
       | academia specifically) fails quickly so that it can rise again
       | with greater resilience and the ability to withstand pressure
       | from activist organizations. Let's hope the hard sciences
       | renaissance is nigh.
        
         | kilgnad wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | Claiming that new drugs with exclusive patents are always more
       | effective than out-of-patent drugs is another cargo cult theme
       | promoted in many highly corporatized biomedical research centers.
       | 
       | Demonstrating that the drug discovered by your colleagues down
       | the hall (who are pushing for their little startup biotech outfit
       | to be acquired by Pfizer or Merck or Gilead, in an effort backed
       | by the institution's IP office and administration) is less
       | effective for a given condition than a drug discovered 50 years
       | ago would be considered impolite, and would lessen your chances
       | of getting tenure and having a successful career.
       | 
       | For example, molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir (aka Paxlovid),
       | heavily promoted for COVID treatment, may be no more effective
       | than older out-of-patent anti-histamine drugs:
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9903129/
       | 
       | > "Since antihistamines seems to hold a crucial prognostic role
       | in the management of Covid-19, there is a need to identify and
       | repurpose some potential antihistamine drugs. One study suggested
       | diphenhydramine, hydroxyzine, and azelastine to be considered in
       | repositioning, then further research in them. 17 Due to its
       | potent, less side effects, rapid onset of action, specificity,
       | antiallergic, and anti-inflammatory properties, 24 Cetirizine
       | might be an important drug of consideration in managing Covid-19
       | patients at the moment compared to other antihistamines or
       | histamine receptors (H2, H3, and H4)."
       | 
       | Corporatization and the profit motive have an undeniably
       | corrupting effect on scientific integrity, that's clear enough.
        
         | youainti wrote:
         | One of the issues here is how intellectual property works for
         | pharmaceuticals. A new drug is patentable. An old drug already
         | has generic competitors. We allow doctors to prescribe a drug
         | for just about any reason (off-label use is legal), but only
         | the new ones get investigated for effectiveness (because they
         | are the most profitable as there is less competition).
         | 
         | No idea what the best approach would be.
        
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