[HN Gopher] The Offshore Networks of Oligarchs
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       The Offshore Networks of Oligarchs
        
       Author : rntn
       Score  : 155 points
       Date   : 2023-02-28 17:02 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (academic.oup.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (academic.oup.com)
        
       | rektide wrote:
       | Younger me was so excited by bootstrapping new connectivities &
       | systems, resented government survelliance of personal lives. The
       | Manifesto of Cyberspace was scrawled across my brain.
       | 
       | But wow, my dislike for how many vast powers in the world are so
       | very un-observable was also high then, & the implications of
       | bitcoin & cryptocurrency to let these systems grow & be harder to
       | deal with has only gone up & up & up ever-more.
       | 
       | Ultimately we're far more tracked by corporations anyhow now, and
       | that only barely has to do with the currency we use.
        
         | DennisP wrote:
         | A potential solution is to make small transactions anonymous,
         | but break the anonymity for large transactions. Of course a
         | large transaction could be broken into many small transactions,
         | but it'd be much more cumbersome and expensive.
         | 
         | For specific sanctioned entities, a possibility would be to let
         | users specify a list of addresses they're not willing to share
         | an anonymity pool with.
         | 
         | Here's Vitalik talking about these ideas in a recent interview:
         | 
         | https://podclips.com/c/K3RLE1?ss=r&ss2=ethereum&d=2023-02-28
        
         | rt4mn wrote:
         | > the implications of bitcoin & cryptocurrency to let these
         | systems grow & be harder to deal with has only gone up & up &
         | up ever-more.
         | 
         | While I agree the implications are concerning, I think its
         | difficult to overstate just how much of a stranglehold the US
         | regulatory and surveillance machine has over the global
         | financial system.
         | 
         | Trying to buy and sell things online without sharing your real
         | name or address is functionally impossible for 99% of people
         | (unless you are willing to break the law or learn how to use
         | cryptocurrency). This is because the gatekeepers to the
         | Internets finances (banks, credit cards, etc) are required by
         | law to identify who they are working with.
         | 
         | This makes a sort of sense until you zoom out and see the scope
         | of the problem. Because it is impossible in 99% of cases to
         | move money around online without using those gatekeepers, there
         | functionally is no financial privacy online.
         | 
         | I should not have to share my bloody name or address with
         | _anyone_ to order a god damn box of chocolate.
         | 
         | > Ultimately we're far more tracked by corporations anyhow now,
         | 
         | True, and thats very concerning and should be pushed back
         | against. But when corporations collect data on you, the worst
         | thing they do with that data (generally speaking) is not treat
         | it with care and the data gets stollen / made public.
         | 
         | When the government collects data on you, the worst thing they
         | do with it (generally speaking) is throw you in jail or kill
         | you. The scope of the concern is astronomically higher.
        
           | zehaeva wrote:
           | What's entertaining about this line of thought, that
           | corporations will only treat your data without care and you
           | really need to worry about the government because they'll
           | kill you is that there is a long history in the US of
           | corporations straight up murdering people.
           | 
           | And I'm not even talking "accidentally", or though neglect.
           | I'm thinking of the union busting efforts of the railroad and
           | mining companies in the late 1800s and early 1900s where the
           | corporations straight up murdered folks.
        
             | chordalkeyboard wrote:
             | > I'm thinking of the union busting efforts of the railroad
             | and mining companies in the late 1800s and early 1900s
             | where the corporations straight up murdered folks.
             | 
             | my favorite examples of corporate union busting from that
             | era all involve the US Army being deployed against workers.
        
           | Invictus0 wrote:
           | Corporations can deny you credit, change your interest rate,
           | increase your bail, close your account, refuse to do business
           | with you, and generally make your life harder.
        
           | forgetfreeman wrote:
           | "I should not have to share my bloody name or address with
           | anyone to order a god damn box of chocolate."
           | 
           | You don't. Get off your ass and go buy a box with cash. On
           | the drive over meditate on who generally benefits when given
           | the ability to move large sums of cash anonymously (hint:
           | terrorist organizations, drug cartels, and tax dodging
           | oligarchs).
        
             | CyanBird wrote:
             | Please, reminder that the cia literally funded their own
             | international bank (bcci) in order to do their clandestine
             | operations
        
             | csydas wrote:
             | I think you're missing the point here. I'm not a crypto
             | advocate, but Visa and Mastercard definitely have too much
             | power as do most online transaction processors, and the
             | amount of information that online processors collect (at
             | the request and joy of governments) is quite scary.
             | 
             | A select few organizations can control whether you can buy
             | necessities or not and cut you off even from legally earned
             | money on a whim. Banks have finite cash on hand which
             | limits your mobility and liquidity at any given moment in
             | the event of an emergency. Online commerce at this stage
             | may as well be a secondary benefit given how your
             | information is scooped up and resold to advertisers.
             | 
             | Financial systems are quite convenient, there's no denying
             | that, but they're extremely fragile and the system exists
             | at the whim of a few select people. Visa and Mastercard
             | have demonstrated they can effectively remove persons from
             | modern civilization at their discretion, not even with
             | official government requirements, and that this has not
             | been challenges is really unsettling.
             | 
             | To reiterate, cryptocurrencies are not the answer here in
             | their current state, as they're too unstable and basically
             | inherit not only all the issues that normal banks bring,
             | but also introduce a ton of new issues. I don't know how to
             | ensure sovereignty for individuals who are legally earning
             | compensation when a support representative for banks can
             | click on a checkbox and make them penniless. Nevermind if
             | the company the representative works for is influenced by
             | an unhappy government.
             | 
             | Finance is terrifying, and we're really in a strange place
             | where we don't have a good answer for ensuring individual
             | sovereignty with any currency, crypto included. I stress
             | over this because I'm less and less confident every year
             | that there is a good solution for this besides eschewing
             | Finance entirely (and that's quite the magic trick...)
        
           | comfypotato wrote:
           | Pointless yelling ensuing: why do you care if people track
           | your chocolate spending? You're not important enough for
           | anyone to ever put your face to your name to your purchase of
           | the chocolate. Forgive me if I'm talking to someone famous,
           | but I'm not. Nobody gives a damn about you on the internet.
           | They want to know you bought chocolate because they want to
           | sell you more chocolate. That's it! Just be grateful you
           | don't have to get off your ass to order the chocolate.
           | 
           | I've never understood the hubbub over privacy. Outside of
           | obviously malicious attacks (that we should be well-protected
           | from) it all just seems that you're being observed so that
           | other people can make money. That doesn't bother me if I'm
           | getting something out of it (chocolate). There are extreme
           | examples of employees with access viewing the data, but they
           | should be considered statistically insignificant in the
           | discussion because they're so rare.
        
             | rektide wrote:
             | It's easy to say when times are good. Government basically
             | sort of tries & does good. But as others have pointed out,
             | America has some ghastly data-collection-against-the-people
             | situations in the past 100 years alone.
             | 
             | For example, Ralph Van Deman[1]. After being instrumental
             | in the Philippine-American war (1899-1902)'s military
             | intelligence division, creating some of the first (and
             | incredibly far reaching) catalogs of potential enemies &
             | associates & basically anyone anywhere near-by & using
             | torture regularly to extract confessions/information, he
             | came home to America... to start enormous files on anti-
             | War, labor, human rights & basically anyone standing up or
             | making noise. Or who happened to be a couple degrees of
             | separation away. Sending under-cover agents out to report
             | back with unsigned reports, calling them "enemy agents" for
             | not being happy-dumb American's & advocating voices. Among
             | many things this lead to
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_Van_Deman
        
           | pa7ch wrote:
           | I think you underestimate the worse things corporations do
           | with data and how many people that affects. Cambridge
           | analytica and the scandal with FB and Brexit would be one
           | example.
        
         | diordiderot wrote:
         | Crypto has been pretty unsuccessful at moving large volumes
         | anonymously over a multi year timespan
         | 
         | https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/60462182
        
           | yieldcrv wrote:
           | I think there are a lot of things that aren't tracked very
           | well.
           | 
           | Randomly pumped tokens/NFTs - even newly issued and pumped
           | ones - are moving large volumes anonymously.
           | 
           | You act like a random trader that caught the wave, but really
           | you are also the addresses pumping the asset with the dark
           | money that isn't intended to be cashed out. The pumped
           | addresses just wind up with the asset and will never cash
           | out. Your KYC'd address just looks like a good crypto trader.
           | 
           | A clean 8,000% gain doesn't look different than a dirty
           | 8,000% gain.
        
             | photon12 wrote:
             | Got this message in my Discord message requests, from 13
             | hours ago:                 Yo!*Welcome to [redacted]!*
             | What can we offer you      We providing quality crypto
             | pumps. *We share the name of target coin in advance.*
             | *We are professional cryptotraders*      And finally, we
             | show you how to beat the market and be ahead of everyone.
             | **This is your chance to multiply your investment together
             | with the cryptocurrency market whales**!             ** The
             | amount of invites is limited! Hurry up to take your place
             | there:** : [redacted]
        
               | yieldcrv wrote:
               | maybe, but that's most likely a scam where you will be
               | exit liquidity for the leader too.
               | 
               | but people with the "dark money" can also pay similar
               | kinds of groups. this happens in the stock market all the
               | time too.
               | 
               | if you have the dark money that you won't cash out, you
               | can do it yourself pretty easily as well, you don't
               | actually need to notify a crowd because there are so many
               | bots that will join a pump of any token, and that will
               | cause it to trend too.
        
         | photon12 wrote:
         | I recently had to leave working for a cryptocurrency adjacent
         | startup because my stomach kept getting into knots about how
         | oligarchs are doing a lot of VC funding in the space, and the
         | reason they are funding it is to cement their authority.
        
           | wonderwonder wrote:
           | Interesting, can you provide more details without doxxing
           | yourself?
        
             | photon12 wrote:
             | This person isn't necessarily an oligarch, but they are a
             | major vendor of market research and VC dollars in the
             | space. This is how important they think the stakes are
             | around fake internet money [1]:
             | 
             | > The Biden Administration is trying to strangle crypto.
             | 
             | > A lot of folks have been trying to stifle that criticism,
             | but the effort to destroy the industry is quiet but
             | pervasive across the exec branch.
             | 
             | > The time to make crypto an issue that wins or loses the
             | Presidency is now.
             | 
             | Investors in my company support that view. It's an example
             | of doing things indistinguishable from what oligarchs want:
             | no questions on their authority, even in the wake of
             | massive consumer harms relating to token speculation and
             | fundamentally unsolvable UX issues for retail consumers.
             | 
             | I had to leave mostly because I couldn't deal with the
             | constant cognitive dissonance. The only reliable source of
             | income in crypto is arbing yields on customer deposits to
             | US treasuries, and the whole space is reliant on the
             | government for macroeconomic stability already and they are
             | creating big deposit flow risks and banks are rightfully
             | worried about it. [2]
             | 
             | [1]
             | https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1624563275760279554
             | 
             | [2] https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares/status/163028716933
             | 07494...
        
       | berjin wrote:
       | Every time I have to fill in some AML (anti-money laundering)
       | form I think how much of a waste of time and money it is for
       | every party involved since the real big fish are getting around
       | it with professional help. It's all very kafkaesque and invasive
       | so I come to the conclusion it's more about powerful governments
       | existing to gain more power than it is about solving any
       | injustice.
        
         | kornhole wrote:
         | Like many laws, they apply to you and me, not to the oligarchs.
         | The international lawyers and accountants are the gatekeepers
         | that navigate them through the loopholes.
        
           | berjin wrote:
           | Yes and they do it under the pretence of solving sexual
           | slavery or child sexual abuse...yet at the same time how many
           | global leaders have visited J.Epstein's island?
        
           | notch898a wrote:
           | That reminds me of FATCA. They made the burden just high
           | enough for banks taking sub six-figure accounts that it's
           | worthless to bank an American customer overseas unless they
           | are rich.
        
         | HashThis wrote:
         | 100%. Elites are allowed to do "money laundering" while
         | commoners are put in jail for it.
         | 
         | FinCen exists to put commoners in jail, for the same things the
         | Elites can do without going to jail. The Elites use Shell
         | Companies to do the same tactics.
         | 
         | The following have FinCen put commoners in jail, but elites
         | move money the same way via Shell companies and stay out of
         | jail: 1) Breaking up transactions, to hide total amount.
         | Commoners=Jail vs Elites=Shell Companies.
         | 
         | 2) Fee assets when law enforcement comes = "Obstruction of
         | Justice". Commoners=Jail w/FinCen. Elites=no jail via Shell
         | companies articles of incorporation
         | 
         | 3) Keeping identity secret. Commoners=Jail w/FinCen. Shell
         | Companies= No Jail
         | 
         | 4) ...list every way commoners go to jail via FinCan and cross
         | boarder. Elites do full list via Shell companies and don't go
         | to jail.
        
         | matheusmoreira wrote:
         | AML is just the financial arm of global mass surveillance.
        
         | majormajor wrote:
         | Nothing will be 100% proof around evasion or exploitation.
         | 
         | The answer isn't to do nothing and let it be a free-for-all.
        
           | ted_bunny wrote:
           | It's darkly funny how nearly every control mechanism in
           | capitalist society equates to merely making a particular
           | action more or less expensive.
        
           | tobyjsullivan wrote:
           | I think both sentiments have merit and are not necessarily
           | mutually exclusive.
           | 
           | Money stuff tends to follow power laws. The basic,
           | beaurocratic checks probably dissuade 80% of offenders while
           | only stopping maybe 20% of the volume.
           | 
           | Doing nothing would leave those 80% of offenders free to
           | launder which seems bad. Meanwhile, it seems fair to call the
           | measures mostly ineffective.
           | 
           | There's also a cost to these measures. They frequently block
           | or add friction for people just trying to do legitimate
           | business. Is it worth it?
        
             | harha wrote:
             | Just makes the rest that can avoid it more powerful.
             | 
             | KYC doesn't protect you from much, all sorts of scams still
             | send money to bank accounts and you wont get your money
             | back from the bank it was sent to even though they should
             | have systems in place to know what is happening and where
             | money is going.
             | 
             | And as you mention it doesn't dissuade the powerful. So
             | what's the purpose other than control and bullying the ones
             | who didn't commit a crime?
        
             | notch898a wrote:
             | Just as likely IMO is that the 20% are using regulatory
             | capture to stomp out the 80% and consolidate their business
             | and create even more effective crime.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _basic, beaurocratic checks probably dissuade 80% of
             | offenders while only stopping maybe 20% of the volume_
             | 
             | Concentrating illicit behavior into fewer nodes also makes
             | whacking them when necessary simpler. I doubt the
             | concentration this paper notes would occur were Russian and
             | Chinese oligarchs able to hold dollars without KYC.
        
           | anigbrowl wrote:
           | That's not what was proposed. The problem is that things like
           | KYC laws are now probing down to thresholds like $600, so the
           | cumulative cost (both directly, of compliance, and
           | indirectly, of overbearing surveillance, chilling effects
           | etc.) is hugely increased for little benefit. In the name of
           | limiting untoward concentrations of money capital, it creates
           | untoward concentrations of political capital.
        
       | spiritplumber wrote:
       | Just make it legal to eat oligarchs.
        
       | passwordoops wrote:
       | Here's a link explaining the original Panama papers, on which
       | this work and detailed analysis is based:
       | 
       | https://www.icij.org/investigations/panama-papers/
        
       | mihaic wrote:
       | After being in the crypto space for a while, and thinking a lot
       | about the problem of tracing money, I've come to the conclusion
       | that the system I'd prefer would be a hybrid.
       | 
       | Everyone needs a quota of anonymous spending, say $50/day, $1000/
       | month and anything after that is public on government ledger.
       | 
       | I've mentioned this to a few friends, who've always called it
       | dystopian, yet all alternate systems seems to be worse in terms
       | of illegal abuse.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _a quota of anonymous spending, say $50 /day, $1000/ month
         | and anything after that is public on government ledger_
         | 
         | You're describing cash + digital money.
        
           | paxys wrote:
           | 1. This system is too complicated and messy, we need to throw
           | it away and rebuild it from scratch.
           | 
           | 2. This new system is so simple and works perfectly.
           | 
           | 3. Hmm, it doesn't account for this one problem. Doesn't
           | matter, we can just iterate and add in a special case.
           | 
           | Repeat 3 a few hundred/thousand times.
           | 
           | 4. This system is too complicated and messy, we need to throw
           | it away and rebuild it from scratch.
        
           | mihaic wrote:
           | Completely agree, cash is great, am not aiming to reinvent
           | the bus! There is though a push to remove it, and it's a bit
           | clearer when we aknowledge the goal.
        
           | hesdeadjim wrote:
           | Yea, but cash isn't very web3 now is it.
        
             | Scoundreller wrote:
             | Shhhh, no talk about our web4 plans
        
         | luckylion wrote:
         | > yet all alternate systems seems to be worse in terms of
         | illegal abuse
         | 
         | worse than that system, sure. Worse compared to a fascist state
         | that has near total control over everyone? I don't think it's
         | clear that tax evasion and black market deals are worse than
         | that, the scale is just different.
         | 
         | China is much deeper in technology than the Soviet Union ever
         | was. Imagine what Stalin had done with China's abilities in
         | 2023, I think accepting Oligarchs, tax evasion and Drug Cartels
         | is a fine trade off to avoid that.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _don 't think it's clear that tax evasion and black market
           | deals are worse than that_
           | 
           | The paper's original context is the War in Ukraine. That
           | doesn't mean we shred up our Bill of Rights. But the
           | counterfactual is starker than tax evasion and cocaine
           | naughties.
        
           | comfypotato wrote:
           | It's not either or in an all or nothing sense, and it's not
           | either or necessarily either. There's a very appropriate
           | comment on another sub-thread pointing out that privacy and
           | corruption aren't necessarily linked. We need to balance as
           | we progress towards a more private and less corrupt world.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | iszomer wrote:
       | 403'd.
        
       | ypeterholmes wrote:
       | The premise here is very solid- shut down the small number of
       | people that the Oligarchs depend on, and their ability to operate
       | is curtailed much more effectively than trying to attack the
       | oligarchs directly.
        
         | motohagiography wrote:
         | The challenge with it is that this doesn't generalize to any
         | shared principle and it's cynical realpolitik dressed up as
         | network science.
         | 
         | I'd argue this paper is less a work of scholarship than an
         | example of collusive, astroturfed, agitprop, where even though
         | russia's oligarchs are an easy target because they are still
         | new money and retain the taint of trade from the corruption
         | that produced their fortunes, the authors are casting
         | aspersions on highly regulated businesses that provide the
         | financial rails for investing and preserving pensions and
         | sovereign wealth.
         | 
         | The only reason you can insure anything or have long term
         | financial instruments at all is because of special purpose
         | vehicles that persist longer than the whims of a given regional
         | governing party. These vehicles are infrastructure that
         | provides financial stability for capital flows that facilitate
         | social stability and growth. I remember the eurozone sovereign
         | debt crisis', and to me the paper just looks like another
         | (tawdry) setup for blaming "speculators and international
         | financiers" for the failed technocratic policies of their peers
         | own makings.
         | 
         | The approach of "going upstream," is guilt by association, and
         | it's unprincipled overreach. The paper is entertaining, and I'm
         | glad that the networkX python library has become so accessible
         | that social activists can use it, but I think we should hold
         | the authors to a higher standard.
        
           | CyanBird wrote:
           | From my naive perspective it almost reads that you won't be
           | able to receive your money on the proper hongkong HSBC select
           | account and are upset about it
           | 
           | Reality is that tax dodging is a wildly out of control
           | problem, and worse it is considered to be de defacto standard
           | to even run a business at all. From south Dakota to the city
           | of London and beyond. It is really a problem
        
       | leashless wrote:
       | We're looking for the "Goldilocks Zone" of privacy. We want:
       | 
       | * Enough privacy that activists don't wind up facing death squads
       | * Not so much privacy that drug cartels wind up running the
       | country.
       | 
       | The problem is that cryptography is all or nothing: for a given
       | observer, the transaction is either private or it isn't.
       | 
       | I'm fascinated by models like differential privacy. Maybe there
       | are ways of making systems which snare large scale abuses but
       | _provably_ leave the minnows free.
        
         | gabcoh wrote:
         | Small nitpick: it isn't entirely true that cryptography is "all
         | or nothing". With things like time lock crypto and proof of
         | work you can effectively have a scheme where large scale
         | snooping is impossible (would take too much compute), but any
         | individual transaction can be decrypted with a bit of work.
        
         | whatshisface wrote:
         | The problem is the institutions writing the laws see it as,
         | "enough privacy to allow us to deal with the Contras, but
         | enough surveillance to stop activists from running the
         | country." ;)
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | There is nothing about the nature of privacy itself that leads
         | to drug cartels running the country. There could be a world
         | with perfect privacy and a perfect justice system where this
         | wouldn't be a problem at all. Of course that isn't realistic,
         | but the tendency should be to always trend towards more privacy
         | and less corruption. Thinking that a private yet safe world
         | isn't possible is a fallacy, because privacy itself isn't the
         | source of these issues.
        
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       (page generated 2023-02-28 23:01 UTC)