[HN Gopher] One Year into the War in Ukraine
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One Year into the War in Ukraine
Author : picture
Score : 75 points
Date : 2023-02-24 20:36 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (acoup.blog)
(TXT) w3m dump (acoup.blog)
| pphysch wrote:
| Is this expertly-crafted satire? I read the blogpost then looked
| at the About page. A literal armchair "military strategist",
| called "The Pedant". Someone help me out.
| Nimitz14 wrote:
| It's called making fun of oneself. I know I know,
| incomprehensible for Americans. But do try.
| wardedVibe wrote:
| He mostly does history education through the lens of pop
| culture. He's a bit outside his expertise on this subject, but
| uses it as a launching off point for educational content rather
| than trying to be a "military strategist". He even says as much
| at the outset.
|
| > keeping in mind that I am largely reliant here on the
| expertise of others and so am operating from my 'professional
| thing explainer' role, rather than as the expert
| int_19h wrote:
| The guy is a military historian, so armchair military
| strategizing is literally a part of the job. Unlike the rest of
| us, though, he actually studied for it.
| retconekt wrote:
| "Urban warfare is brutally difficult and has in the past not been
| a particular strength of the Russian Federation."
|
| Ahem,
|
| Stalingrad
|
| Cough, splutter, gurgling blood..
| oriolid wrote:
| Usually the defender is expected to have advantage but somehow
| Soviet Union ended up with higher casualties than losing side.
| int_19h wrote:
| FWIW the sheer concentration of artillery firepower at hot
| spots in Ukraine exceeds anything seen in Stalingrad. Mariupol
| was one prominent example, and the ongoing battle for Bakhmut
| is another.
| dragonwriter wrote:
| > "Urban warfare is brutally difficult and has in the past not
| been a particular strength of the Russian Federation."
|
| > Ahem,
|
| > Stalingrad
|
| Ahem,
|
| "Russian Federation".
|
| Not the same thing as the USSR.
| lnsru wrote:
| Urban warfare for russians is a no-brainer - level everything
| to the ground. See leftovers of Grozny.
| Animats wrote:
| Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to
| Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very
| vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which
| there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas
| landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria
| movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has
| potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Estonia, and the
| Gulf of Finland. An independence movement there could be well
| supported from Europe. Something to think about.
|
| There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine could
| take as a bargaining chip to trade for Ukraine's own territory.
| There's nothing but farmland and mountains. Which is why this war
| is so stuck.
|
| [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/97-of-russia-army-in-
| ukraine...
|
| [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separatism_in_Russia
| bigdict wrote:
| > Free Ingria [...] has potential
|
| No, it's a toy movement.
|
| > There's no part of Russia bordering Ukraine that Ukraine
| could take as a bargaining chip
|
| Transnistria could play precisely that role.
| anextio wrote:
| The Russians have shown that they don't care about holding
| territory in the short term, see Kherson withdrawal, etc.
| They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own
| casualties. If Ukraine goes into Transnistria it will not
| force Russia to capitulate.
| meheleventyone wrote:
| > "They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their
| own casualties."
|
| ???
|
| That's errr... going poorly.
| kibwen wrote:
| _> They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their
| own casualties._
|
| The former, yes. The latter, no.
| gerikson wrote:
| Isn't Transnistria legally part of Moldova? Russia can't
| trade that away against Moldova's wishes, and even if it was
| to try , it would be against the international law that made
| the invasion of Ukraine and annexing its territory illegal in
| the first place.
| bigdict wrote:
| International law is for client states.
| notahacker wrote:
| Don't really see Transnistria as remotely useful as a
| bargaining chip. Sure it's propped up by Russia and would
| _eventually_ be integrated into Russia under Putin 's wildest
| imperial fantasies, but it's not Russia, its people mostly
| aren't Russian and I'm not sure it's all that valuable
| either.
|
| All a Ukrainian invasion of Transnistria would do is give
| Putin's claims about Ukrainian aggression some veneer of
| legitimacy and annoy Moldova, which doesn't want to see
| something which is constitutionally part of their territory
| fought over and then bargained back to Russian control...
| pydry wrote:
| >its people mostly aren't Russian
|
| They basically are. They speak Russian and act like
| Russians. I doubt they'd mind being annexed.
| RivieraKid wrote:
| I've recently read that only about 30% identify as
| Russians.
| yucky wrote:
| > An independence movement there could be well supported from
| Europe. Something to think about.
|
| The absolute irony of this line of thinking.
| andrey123 wrote:
| Last time I checked there was more than 1 million in internal
| forces (militia, rosgvardia, troops, probably some others).
| They are armed, trained specifically to suppress and loyal. I
| (looking from the inside) highly doubt that they will change
| sides unless they stop receiving paycheck. Of course, some
| regions are a bit special in this respect but they are not in
| the central Russia.
| RivieraKid wrote:
| What is the mood regarding the war in your social circle? How
| often do they support it?
| hammock wrote:
| > Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now
| committed to Ukraine.[1]
|
| The UK defense minister said this.
| https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-64634760
| miguelazo wrote:
| This war is "stuck" because the security state masters want it
| that way. The US makes sure Zelensky doesn't agree to
| diplomatic solutions, and keeps shoveling weapons at them.
|
| US General Mark Milley is one of the sole voices of sanity
| acknowledging that negotiations are urgently needed and the
| only real path forward.
| luckylion wrote:
| The "just surrender and become one with Russia" diplomatic
| solutions? Are those solutions final?
| scohesc wrote:
| It really does seem that way...
|
| I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down
| Russian military forces at the expense of Ukrainians and
| "Allied" military equipment (instead of some theoretical war
| where the US send their soldiers _and_ equipment on the
| field, and the resulting PR nightmares, etc. that would
| cause) - essentially weakening Russia's military to a point
| so that Russia can't respond as aggressively to western
| expansionism or continue to meddle in western affairs as
| strongly as they have been.
|
| I wish the west would stay out of conflicts it doesn't have a
| stake in, and I wish Russia would stop attacking Ukraine.
| Unfortunately mentioning the former makes you a "putin-
| apologist" even though there's more than enough things to
| attend to in the west instead of sending trillions of dollars
| overseas and continuing to fund the industrial military
| complex - almost like it's a convenient excuse to help
| distract people how much they're getting screwed over at home
| - but that's getting into conspiracy theorist territory,
| which I'd rather not go down.
|
| The fastest way out of the war is negotiation unfortunately.
| It's only going to get bloodier as both sides get more
| desperate to win...
| fabian2k wrote:
| The Ukraine is in Europe, it is on the borders of the EU.
| And there are other former members of the Soviet Union that
| are now part of NATO and the EU. This is absolutely a
| conflict we have an enormous stake in.
|
| Do you think we should not help Ukraine, and not supply
| them with weapons and leave them to fend for themselves?
| JohnFen wrote:
| > I wish the west would stay out of conflicts it doesn't
| have a stake in
|
| I think there's a solid human rights reason to be involved
| in the way we are. But even ignoring that, I also think we
| do have a stake in this.
|
| > The fastest way out of the war is negotiation
| unfortunately
|
| Russia wants no negotiation that doesn't result in them
| stealing territory from Ukraine. You can't negotiate with
| that.
| andrey123 wrote:
| > Russia wants no negotiation that doesn't result in them
| stealing territory from Ukraine. You can't negotiate with
| that.
|
| You can negotiate with that, people were and are doing
| this all the time. The problem is that it very likely
| would result in just a pause and further (probably worse)
| conflict later.
| kibwen wrote:
| _> I wish the west would stay out of conflicts it doesn 't
| have a stake in, and I wish Russia would stop attacking
| Ukraine._
|
| Unfortunately, since the latter has happened, there's no
| moral high ground to be gained by "staying out" of the
| conflict. Russia started this war. Russia could end it,
| today, by leaving.
| yks wrote:
| The West have their own interests surely but this war is
| fought by Ukrainians on their own collective volition.
| Negotiation is therefore also should happen on their own
| volition. Even with the slowly trickling and insufficient
| Western military aid, Ukrainians still prefer to take a
| chance to preserve their land, statehood and culture.
|
| People hate the Western MIC for a reason but in the end
| desire to avoid a genocide has to be stronger than hate for
| the MIC.
| jen20 wrote:
| > western expansionism
|
| Pretty sure you just revealed your agenda there.
| yks wrote:
| Appeasing the aggressors by giving up territories is not
| going to stop the war long term until there is nothing to
| give up. Not only history shows it again and again, but the
| basic psychology behind this is clear after a first encounter
| with a bully which many people do as soon as kindergarten.
|
| The only outcome of this faux pacifism is the destruction of
| Ukrainian state with the following butchering of Ukrainian
| culture AND with the following wars further West. Even though
| many Americans decided all of a sudden to support Russia in
| their conquests, Russians did not stop seeing themselves as
| waging war against the US and the West. And why would they
| ever stop, if the West keeps giving them what they want.
| freefrog334433 wrote:
| No appeasement has been the reason for fighting wars since
| WW2. This shows a misunderstanding of the wars. In Vietnam,
| it was called the domino theory, except Vietnam was a war
| of independence. The war on terror - invade Iraq so the
| terrorist don't come here. The Russians are not going to
| invade NATO countries.
| yks wrote:
| If anything your examples show that aggressors don't care
| about diplomatic compromises as long as they believe in
| their total military victory.
|
| > The Russians are not going to invade NATO countries.
|
| Depending on how US elections go, NATO can be no longer a
| meaningful project anyway. So yes, they are absolutely
| going to invade if encouraged to do so. Eastern Europeans
| clearly understand that.
| fabian2k wrote:
| Ukraine is a sovereign actor here, it is defending itself
| against aggression. Of course they accept and demand weapons
| from the West, because surrendering or losing this war means
| a lot of death, suffering and loss of freedom.
|
| At the very latest after Bucha it is clear that leaving
| Ukrainian population under Russian control will cause
| terrible suffering. So what should they negotiate about, what
| do you think Ukraine should give up to the aggressor?
| vondur wrote:
| I would be more worried about the Caucasus's. Chechnya is run
| by a dictator with Putin's backing. I have a feeling that
| Ramzan Kadyrov will have the be very careful moving forward. I
| can't imagine he's well liked in Chechnya.
| risyachka wrote:
| Russia is a military state. They have about a million of police
| and other military forces inside the country.
|
| And internal separatist movements are so tiny you can handle
| them with 1/1000 of the force they have.
| TylerE wrote:
| They also thought they could take Ukraine in about the time
| it took Hitler to blitz into Poland.
| okasaki wrote:
| What does that mean? Is the US a military state?
| zztop44 wrote:
| Yes, quite obviously yes, I would have thought. All
| imperial states are military states aren't they?
| FollowingTheDao wrote:
| "The current War in Ukraine is, after all, a continuation of what
| I've seen termed the War in the Donbas, which began in April of
| 2014. "
|
| I was happy to read that since it is constantly ignored by
| American media.
| ROTMetro wrote:
| You mean the conflict in Donbas that killed 25 people in 2021,
| mainly from mines? Hardly justification for Russia's invasion.
| yucky wrote:
| Thousands have been killed on both sides of that conflict
| since 2014, handpicking a temporary downturn in 2021 is a bit
| disingenuous, no?
| int_19h wrote:
| It wasn't a "temporary downturn". If you look at the graph
| of casualties in Donbas before 2022, the first 2 years of
| fighting in 2014-2015 see the vast majority of casualties,
| and then it goes down sharply from there.
|
| By 2021, this much lower rate was a well-established status
| quo, and this was reflected even in official government
| briefings from separatist republics and Russia itself. For
| example, DNR published
| (https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3467017.html) its own stats
| claiming a grand total of 70 military casualties and 7
| civilians for the entirety of 2021 - a proportion, by the
| way, that tells you volumes about where that fire was
| aimed.
| JohnFen wrote:
| > since it is constantly ignored by American media.
|
| It is? It seems to be talked about a fair bit for being
| ignored.
| moremetadata wrote:
| I remember the BBC News telling viewers it would all be over in 6
| weeks!
| annexrichmond wrote:
| "2 more weeks!" (tm)
| GaggiX wrote:
| Not many predicted that Ukraine would hold out so long,
| especially the Kremlin itself which believed that the most
| reasonable course of action at the time was to start the
| invasion even with such a small number of men.
| melling wrote:
| Didn't most people expect Russian to easily take Ukraine?
|
| They are several times bigger, larger military, etc.
| FollowingTheDao wrote:
| > Didn't most people expect Russian to easily take Ukraine?
|
| No. Most people knew that Russia had no intention of taking
| over Ukraine. They stated their intentions clearly.
| melling wrote:
| Which stated intentions?
|
| They initially claimed they weren't going into Ukraine.
| riku_iki wrote:
| putin literally said in his speech at the beginning that
| the goal is to overthrow "drug addict government". How
| could they do it without taking over country?
| anextio wrote:
| They don't have to occupy the whole of Ukraine to do
| that, they only have to defeat Ukraine's military and
| destroy NATO's materiel on the battlefield. If they
| intended to occupy the entire country they would need
| several million troops as well as legions of
| administrators ready to go, which would be visible.
|
| They most likely only plan to long-term occupy the parts
| of Ukraine where the majority of the population still
| living there supports them. The last thing that Russia
| wants is fighting a never ending insurgency in Lviv
| oblast.
| int_19h wrote:
| The column that was rushing towards Kyiv consisted in
| large part of the Russian National Guard units - those
| are the guys whose primary purpose is to beat up people
| in opposition protests. And they had the anti-riot gear
| packed, as Ukrainians have found out when going through
| the wrecks. So, yes, they were absolutely planning to
| suppress civilian opposition to the occupation.
| SketchySeaBeast wrote:
| Putin's stated intentions, which were, and I quote "And for
| this we will strive for the demilitarisation and
| denazification of Ukraine". So even though they were stated
| clearly, they made little sense if you assume they aren't
| trying to take over Ukraine.
| peyton wrote:
| What do you mean? His speech [1] is really clear. I'm
| extremely disappointed in the reporting by the news here.
|
| [1]: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843
| jen20 wrote:
| Clear is not the same as making sense.
|
| I can say the words "Dog Cat Microwave Book" and they
| would be clear, and make about as much sense as the idea
| of "denazifying" Ukraine.
| mmcclure wrote:
| The first section is titled "Predictions Are Hard."
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