[HN Gopher] U.S. corn-based ethanol worse for the climate than g...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       U.S. corn-based ethanol worse for the climate than gasoline, study
       finds
        
       Author : Brajeshwar
       Score  : 359 points
       Date   : 2023-02-24 17:41 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | mcv wrote:
       | A big problem with agriculture-based bio-fuels, is that growing
       | crops with modern technology uses a lot of fuel. Tractors and
       | other machinery, fertilizer, and a million other things all take
       | energy, which often comes in the form of fossil fuels.
       | 
       | My brother-in-law has a farm, and claims that if you look at the
       | amount of energy used and produced by farms, agriculture hasn't
       | been economically viable for more than half a century. We pump
       | fuel out of the ground, have farms turn it into food, and we eat
       | that. It works because the energy from fossil fuels is already
       | there, and eating is important. But if farms turn fuel into more
       | fuel, those farms need to be a lot more efficient, or we're just
       | burning fuel for nothing.
        
       | fetus8 wrote:
       | And it generally gets much worse MPG compared to regular
       | gasoline!
        
         | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
         | I wonder if this doesn't need to be the case. With the higher
         | octane rating couldn't you in theory run a much more efficient
         | and higher compression engine?
        
           | deeviant wrote:
           | It's a simple case of it's energy density. The energy content
           | of ethanol is about 33% less than pure gasoline. Higher
           | octane doesn't even necessary equate to higher gas mileage.
           | As soon as octane is high enough for your engine tuning,
           | there's no mileage benefit.
        
             | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
             | > As soon as octane is high enough for your engine tuning,
             | there's no mileage benefit.
             | 
             | That's exactly my point. Would it be possible to design an
             | engine from the ground up for very high octane fuels?
        
               | mywittyname wrote:
               | Yeah, this is how most E85 engines generally work. They
               | have a E15 engine map, and an E85 and map. And use
               | sensors to figure out which fuel is in the tank and which
               | map to use.
               | 
               | Stock cars generally don't take full advantage of the
               | octane benefits of E85 because they will blow up if
               | someone fills the tank with E15. But in the aftermarket
               | world, "corn powered" cars make substantially more power,
               | especially turbocharged ones. They have the benefit of
               | owners that understand to manually switch maps when
               | changing fuels.
        
               | UncleEntity wrote:
               | They don't have to manually switch maps, modern ECUs can
               | figure out the blend and compensate.
        
               | pton_xd wrote:
               | Agreed, there are several aftermarket ethanol content
               | analyzer sensors available, easily installable onto the
               | fuel line of any car. These supply an ethanol % reading
               | to the ECU and allow for aftermarket tunes to adjust
               | timings based on the current fuel blend. No manual
               | swapping necessary.
        
           | jgust wrote:
           | That is the theory behind "flex fuel" vehicles. In practice,
           | the optimizations don't materialize in real world usage. This
           | is likely because of safety factors built into the ECM
           | preventing the engine from running enough timing advance to
           | take advantage of the octane of a blended fuel.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | The total amount you can get from changing the timing isn't
             | very much. Even if you put in a whole new camshaft. Not to
             | mention timing effects emissions as well.
             | 
             | The more typical way to do this is have a turbocharger
             | (supercharger... I can never remember the difference and
             | which you want when). You and run more boost which
             | increases the compression ratio. However this requires an
             | expensive turbo and so isn't a popular option.
             | 
             | I'm not sure why turbo cars have not made these
             | modifications though. There are probably other trade offs
             | I'm not aware of.
        
               | jgust wrote:
               | Exactly. More ICE cars are coming standard with
               | turbochargers which would enable more to take advantage
               | of the extra octane, but it's an optimization problem
               | with constraints: fuel efficiency, reliability, drive-
               | ability, emissions to name a few.
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | This is probably a fudged statistic, because you have to add
         | oxygenates to what's called 'pure gasoline' to get it to burn
         | cleanly and efficiently, which bulks out the volume
         | considerably. (These kinds of arguments were also trotted out
         | in favor of tetra-ethyl-lead to provide the 'oxygenate' which
         | only needs to be added at 1% or IIRC, compared to 10% ethanol
         | blend or similar usually).
         | 
         | Fuel blending for optimal combustion characteristics is a
         | complicated business, most of what people claim about this
         | issue is not very reliable.
        
         | mgkimsal wrote:
         | I've been tracking my flex-fuel usage - mostly E85 fillips -
         | for a while now, tracking price and MPG. At least with the
         | prices I've been getting, I typically get around 15% less MPG,
         | but the price is between 10-15% cheaper. My 'cents per mile'
         | price has generally remained the same over the last year or so
         | I've been tracking (been tracking longer than a year, but have
         | been using E85 more regularly in the last year).
         | 
         | Now... I've got a small car/engine. The MPG might be markedly
         | worse on a bigger car. Don't know. But at least in my case,
         | cents/mile is about the same.
        
           | mgkimsal wrote:
           | Can't edit now, so I'll add.
           | 
           | With my typical city/town driving, I get 32-35 mpg with 87
           | octane, and typically 26-30 with E85.
           | 
           | Regular 87 octane is $3.12 around me here, and E85 is $2.71.
           | E85 works out around 12% cheaper.
        
           | Scoundreller wrote:
           | So then do you fill up with E0 or E10 so you can fill up less
           | frequently?
        
             | mgkimsal wrote:
             | Last... year or so I've been getting E85 when
             | possible/convenient, and defaulting to regular 87 octane
             | when E85 isn't available. Those tend to be the only
             | reliably available options - haven't seen E10 around here.
             | Last 6 months have been about 80% E85 and 20% 87 regular.
        
       | boomchinolo78 wrote:
       | It was never done for climate reasons. Purely economic and
       | geopolitic
        
       | strawhatguy wrote:
       | Not too surprising, almost inevitable: the government demanded it
       | to help the corn lobby, the excuse was it was greener.
       | 
       | Bet we can't get rid of those regulations for years to come too,
       | especially since new regs seem to be heading in the direction of
       | banning all new gas cars. So probably after that, if at all.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | programmarchy wrote:
       | Doesn't it also wear down engines more quickly?
        
         | ravenstine wrote:
         | No, it does not. This myth will not die hard.
         | 
         | It's not a total myth per se, because it once was and sometimes
         | still can be true for engine components that are simply not
         | designed to handle ethanol.
         | 
         | Such is not the case for pretty much every car built after the
         | year 2000, roughly speaking. Every soft component in modern
         | cars is designed to handle at least 10% ethanol, and
         | effectively handle 100% ethanol.
         | 
         | Corrosion is not really an issue either. The E85 you get from a
         | pump is anhydrous, and the only way you'll get things like
         | phase separation is if water is added deliberately. Ethanol
         | doesn't pull water into gasoline. That's a myth. It's not a
         | dessicant. This topic has been studied and it's simply not
         | worth worrying about.
         | 
         | Most cars on the road today, including those that aren't Flex
         | Fuel, can run somewhere between E30 and E50 with no problems
         | whatsoever. They can even run on E85 or E100 with either a
         | software update or a piggyback device between the ECU and the
         | fuel injectors, everything else remaining OEM.
         | 
         | A car running on ethanol won't rust, fall apart, or blow up. If
         | anything, ethanol can be better for engines given that it burns
         | cooler and leaves way less carbon deposits.
         | 
         | If a small engine today has seal failures or other issues, it's
         | more likely to be the BTX (benzene, toluene, xylene) in
         | gasoline and not the ethanol component.
         | 
         | By the way, I'm speaking from direct experience. Not only have
         | I converted small engines to run on ethanol, but I converted my
         | 2013 Hyundai to be a flex fuel vehicle.
        
           | BoorishBears wrote:
           | The truth is it's complicated, because modern ICEs are
           | complicated.
           | 
           | > Most cars on the road today, including those that aren't
           | Flex Fuel, can run somewhere between E30 and E50 with no
           | problems whatsoever.
           | 
           | That's straight up not true if we define "run" as "run as
           | well as on E10" (granted I wish it was so I could save money
           | on having to upgrade fueling for my cars).
           | 
           | With the huge focus on MPG manufacturers generally aren't
           | overbuilding their fueling systems: My 4 series will "run" on
           | E30 with a stock tune, but logging AFRs and fuel rail
           | pressure will show it's a dangerous game where the ECU is
           | pulling a ton of timing as the fuel system struggles to keep
           | up.
           | 
           | Even with a tune, E20 is the maximum the fueling system can
           | maintain without straight up running out of fueling and going
           | into limp mode under heavy load
           | 
           | -
           | 
           | The more balanced truth is: ethanol for vehicles is a
           | complicated topic, because modern ICEs are complicated
           | beasts.
           | 
           | Cars are designed to not break down on E10, but you will find
           | some people argue (imo validly) that part of why car
           | reliability dipped around the turn of the century was all the
           | changes needed to support that kind of flexibility. Materials
           | changed, engine management got more complicated (the fact
           | that a car will run at all on E30 while clearly exceeding its
           | fueling limits is a testament to that), etc.
           | 
           | Ethanol can be better for sure, my car is a million times
           | more enjoyable on a simple E20 blend than California's awful
           | 91 blend, but at the end of the day, ethanol fuel is a bit of
           | a farce (and again, I'm someone who'd have a terrible day if
           | we actually stopped producing it).
           | 
           | We're having the public pay to prop up our energy
           | independence, and producing more emissions along the way. E85
           | prices don't reflect the difference in energy content, and
           | the cost at the production side to make E10 blends. Gas would
           | be cheaper for most people if we didn't have that
           | requirement, hence why in times of economic need we've
           | suspended the requirement.
           | 
           | Ironically the people who I personally see benefit most from
           | E85 are people who are well off enough to use it for a
           | performance boost, or businesses taking advantage of how much
           | _artificially_ cheaper E85 is. Average people get the short
           | end of the stick and few to none of the benefits.
        
             | ravenstine wrote:
             | > That's straight up not true if we define "run" as "run as
             | well as on E10" (granted I wish it was so I could save
             | money on having to upgrade fueling for my cars).
             | 
             | Variances between vehicles will always be a factor. This
             | doesn't mean that _most_ of them won 't run sufficiently or
             | even _well_ with a higher ethanol ratio. Your experience
             | with your 4 Series is interesting, and you seem to know a
             | lot about ICEs, but all the research I conducted before I
             | even considered trying E20 convinced me that the
             | possibility of engine failure or damage is extremely
             | remote.
             | 
             | I'll have to find them when I get home, but there were at
             | least 2 studies I came across where researchers tested (I
             | think) E20 on several vehicles from different years and
             | manufacturers to see what would happen. The only issues the
             | vehicles encountered were ones that had nothing to do with
             | the fuel system.
             | 
             | In any case, it _is_ a nuanced topic, though I struggle to
             | say it 's quite as complicated as your perspective.
             | 
             | > Even with a tune, E20 is the maximum the fueling system
             | can maintain without straight up running out of fueling and
             | going into limp mode under heavy load
             | 
             | That's very interesting. With my vehicle, it ran almost
             | identically to E10 on E50 (yes I made sure that was roughly
             | the ratio present in the tank), and on E60 it started to
             | run rough and showed a lean condition code but was still
             | perfectly driveable.
             | 
             | > Ethanol can be better for sure, my car is a million times
             | more enjoyable on a simple E20 blend than California's
             | awful 91 blend, but at the end of the day, ethanol fuel is
             | a bit of a farce (and again, I'm someone who'd have a
             | terrible day if we actually stopped producing it).
             | 
             | In any case, I find it an amazing fuel. Although my vehicle
             | isn't optimized for the higher octane rating of ethanol, I
             | experienced an obvious performance improvement on even E20
             | in terms of power. My bias was low in that case because at
             | the time I was certain I _wouldn 't_ see greater power.
             | 
             | > Ironically the people who I personally see benefit most
             | from E85 are people who are well off enough to use it for a
             | performance boost, or businesses taking advantage of how
             | much artificially cheaper E85 is. Average people get the
             | short end of the stick and few to none of the benefits.
             | 
             | Do you think that's a limitation based on the availability
             | of Flex Fuel vehicles, or the price of the fuel itself?
             | Even when adjusting for the energy-per-volume using the
             | most pessimistic calculation, E85 shouldn't be more
             | expensive than gasoline. At current prices, E85 should be
             | ~$0.50 less per gallon than regular gas when adjusted. At
             | least that's how it is for the fuel prices near me.
             | 
             | But let's say that E85 and gasoline cost exactly the same
             | per joule. All that would mean is that E85 has less range.
             | If EVs have taught us anything, it's that many people don't
             | mind having less range.
        
           | danaris wrote:
           | Cars are not the only engines that use gasoline. Lawnmowers,
           | weedwhackers (with added oil), and snowblowers, just to name
           | three things in my garage that get E85 gas[1], all have some
           | degree of problems with it.
           | 
           | [1] Because that's what's available around me, not because
           | that's what they _should_ be getting.
        
             | ravenstine wrote:
             | Are any of your small engines designed or specifically
             | converted to run on E85? Or are you using some lower ratio
             | of ethanol to gas? In any case, small engines like those in
             | lawnmowers are more of an effort to get running properly
             | because, unless something's changed, they're not using an
             | ECU or lambda sensors that would allow them to change the
             | fuel trim (I'm probably speaking the obvious here so
             | forgive me). They usually have to be re-jetted and maybe
             | have their timing manually advanced.
        
         | SteveGerencser wrote:
         | Ethanol is hard on all the soft bits in an engine. Rubber
         | seals, diaphrams and so on. This is most dramatically seen in
         | small engines that still use carburetors vs fuel injection.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | That isn't the ethanol, that is the bad gasoline they mix in
           | with the ethanol. When you buy E0 you get a better grade of
           | gasoline that doesn't degrade the seals as much.
        
       | humaniania wrote:
       | Who paid for the study and have there been other studies on the
       | topic?
        
       | igravious wrote:
       | We can't build out tried and tested nuclear reactors but we can
       | and will continue to do this. I am so done with the "green"
       | movement.
        
         | titaniumtown wrote:
         | Yes, the corn lobby's pressure is totally comparable to the
         | entire push for green energy /s
        
         | droopyEyelids wrote:
         | Any movement will get partially coopted by entrenched business
         | interests
        
         | Avshalom wrote:
         | weird thing to call the iowa corn lobby.
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | Corn farmers are generally more Ducks Unlimited type
         | environmentalists than Greenpeace type environmentalists.
        
       | nerdo wrote:
       | Still better for the climate than burning the corn after
       | harvesting it: https://www.farmcollector.com/farm-life/u-s-
       | farmers-during-g...
        
       | Mattasher wrote:
       | FWIW if you live in place with boating and you might be able to
       | find REC-90 for sale, which is Ethanol free.
        
       | cashsterling wrote:
       | As others mentioned, this is not a new finding. There is a lot of
       | academic and industrial/economic analysis on this subject.
       | Ethanol from corn was never a good idea economically for anyone
       | other than corn farmers. It is also bad environmentally and
       | places additional competitive demand on our food supply (choice
       | and competition between corn going into food or fuel supply).
       | 
       | Similar analysis has been done on other crop feed-stocks (switch
       | grass, etc.) and none of the analysis has shown that crop derived
       | ethanol is a good idea.
       | 
       | I'm not a leading expert on this subject by any means, but I am a
       | PhD chemical engineer and did a lot of research into alternative
       | fuels science and economics about ten years ago. I'm not up on
       | the latest research and analysis but the fundamental
       | thermodynamics and carbon cycles of crop-based ethanol have not
       | changed much in the past ten years or so.
        
         | jfengel wrote:
         | Corn farmers from Iowa. Where they hold the first caucus of the
         | interminable election season.
         | 
         | No American politician or political party can afford to offend
         | corn farmers. We should count ourselves lucky that our gasoline
         | is only 10% corn.
        
           | 1letterunixname wrote:
           | Correction: W did this to give more power to agribusinesses
           | and large-scale farmers who were drifting towards democratic
           | socialism.
           | 
           | The market price is destabilized and undercut by government
           | subsidies who put most farmers in the unenviable position of
           | taking corporate welfare in order to make a living.
           | 
           | If the government got out of the business of picking winners
           | and losers, and deciding who to rain money on and who to
           | starve, the corn would be more expensive and sugar cane would
           | be cheaper.
        
           | stolenmerch wrote:
           | That is commonly cited but there is evidence to suggest it
           | isn't the whole picture. Ted Cruz was a vocal opponent of
           | Ethanol subsidies and won Iowa.
        
           | ch4s3 wrote:
           | It isn't just Iowa[1], the Corn Belt across the upper Mid
           | West is the Saudi Arabia of Corn.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_production_in_the_Unit
           | ed_...
        
           | labrador wrote:
           | which is why the Democratic Party changed it under cover of
           | starting with "a more diverse state"
           | 
           |  _Iowa no longer first; Democrats reorder the presidential
           | primary calendar for 2024_
           | 
           | https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2022/1.
           | ..
        
             | GeekyBear wrote:
             | > which is why the Democratic Party changed it
             | 
             | I think that has more to do with getting away from Iowa and
             | New Hampshire since those states have shown a surprising
             | level of support for candidates outside of the preferred
             | establishment picks.
        
             | koolba wrote:
             | > which is why the Democratic Party changed it under cover
             | of starting with "a more diverse state"
             | 
             | It wasn't because they care about offending farmers or
             | removing ethanol subsidies, it was so that Biden can lock
             | down some early primary wins in 2024 with States with a
             | higher percentage of black voters.
        
               | labrador wrote:
               | Are you sure that's all that it's about? I'd say it's
               | about a lot of things since Democrats have been unhappy
               | about starting in Iowa for a long time.
        
               | fsckboy wrote:
               | everybody is jumping down GP's throat here by focusing on
               | the word "Biden".
               | 
               | him saying they're doing it to lock in Biden (their
               | mainstream/establishment frontrunner) in large early
               | primaries in 2024 (the next election) is not really
               | different from saying they're doing it to lock in their
               | mainstream/establishment frontrunner in large early
               | primaries in future elections to avoid the kind of "self
               | destructive" internecine primary battles with fringe
               | candidates like Bernie Sanders--yes, he was very popular,
               | but his views are to one side of the Democratic party
               | which is to one side of the Republican party which makes
               | his views part of the fringe in the uniform tapestry of
               | views--which have taken place for many years.
               | 
               | Not saying it's right or wrong, just saying GP's analysis
               | holds together as part of the larger analysis everybody
               | here seems to be basing their thinking on.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > him saying they're doing it to lock in Biden (their
               | mainstream/establishment frontrunner) in large early
               | primaries in 2024 (the next election) is not really
               | different from saying they're doing it to lock in their
               | mainstream/establishment frontrunner in large early
               | primaries in future elections
               | 
               | Yes, it is.
               | 
               | Because it refers to specific geographic strengths that
               | Biden had as a candidate, not strengths that are
               | uniformly typical of establishment-preferred Democratic
               | candidates.
               | 
               | (Now if, instead of referring to Biden's particular and
               | unique strengths that correlate with the change, they had
               | said that it was to lock in estanlishment candidates by
               | moving some larger, more expensive states to campaign in
               | forward, and that that establishment support was more key
               | in campaigning in those states - a weak but at least
               | superficially plausible argument - that would be
               | different. But "states with a higner percentage of black
               | voters" are...a different thing.
        
               | fsckboy wrote:
               | oh my sweet summer child, The Democrats have been trying
               | to reduce/eliminate the influence of Iowa and New
               | Hampshire for many years. The reason it's not likely that
               | primaries seasons would be changed solely for a
               | particular candidate is that a party will need to "live
               | with" the result for some time to come, they're not going
               | to be able to rearrange it every election.
               | 
               | South Carolina Democrats, black and white, are much more
               | toward the center of the overall electorate, which is
               | where the national campaigns shift their focus after
               | running left and right in their respective D and R
               | primaries. It is not Biden's specific strength that
               | matters, because it was also the reason "Super Tuesday"
               | was created many years ago to benefit the establishment
               | candidate (Walter Mondale at the time)* https://en.wikipe
               | dia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday#1984:_Beginnings...
               | 
               | And black voters are (or have been) reliably Democrat,
               | which benefits all Democrat candidates, not particular to
               | do with Biden (or Bill Clinton) though they did enjoy
               | outsized black support. Saying the first primary is being
               | moved "to make the electorate look like America" is
               | designed to shut up the Left, who would scream bloody
               | murder if they said "putting this state first is an
               | establishment move because SC is not so left wing" It
               | takes an "establishment move" to change the primaries
               | because the state parties have to change it in the local
               | places with cooperation or opposition from the other
               | party in those states.
               | 
               | * a much younger Biden was a candidate back then too but
               | when, as an English coalminer's great-grandson, Biden's
               | support was centered in the UK so nobody in the US was
               | doing him huge political favors)**
               | 
               | **this is a tongue-in-cheek reference to Biden
               | plagiarizing Niel Kinnock's speech which knocked him out
               | of the 1992 race https://archive.ph/idkaA
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | HDThoreaun wrote:
               | If Biden runs he won't be challenged in the primary.
               | There's no reason for him to fix it.
        
               | lapcat wrote:
               | > it was so that Biden can lock down some early primary
               | wins in 2024
               | 
               | Biden is unlikely to face a primary challenge if he runs.
               | Bernie already said he won't.
               | https://www.axios.com/2022/06/14/bernie-
               | sanders-2024-primary...
               | 
               | Don't forget that the 2020 Iowa caucus was a complete
               | mess, totally botched, and the chair of the Iowa
               | Democratic Party had to resign soon afterward.
        
               | mjevans wrote:
               | If absolute fairness were the reason for change ALL
               | parties that primary would do so by some algorithm that's
               | transparent.
               | 
               | E.G. 5 Primary waves (Tuesdays/weeks/months) sorted by
               | the 10 states with the least population to the most
               | population.
               | 
               | Why? It's a better rough approximation for a
               | representative sample over an increasingly large window
               | of voters than the current process, and still keeps any
               | benefit of ramping up from smaller to larger populations
               | to narrow overall selection in the field. Plus the
               | algorithm is so simple that it can be outlined in a
               | sentence.
        
               | koolba wrote:
               | There's some logistical issues as some States run the
               | elections so the individual parties can't pick their own
               | primary dates (unless they pay for themselves which I
               | think they're loathe to do).
               | 
               | Assuming parties could pick the primary border, I think
               | it'd be most advantageous to pick the States sorted by
               | the absolute value of the win/loss percentage for a given
               | state. That way highly contested States get an earlier
               | say in the process and presumably a candidate that is
               | more favorable in those markets comes out ahead earlier
               | in the process.
        
               | TremendousJudge wrote:
               | I don't understand. If you're going to change it, why
               | don't do the primary on the same day like any other
               | country?
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > If you're going to change it, why don't do the primary
               | on the same day like any other country?
               | 
               | It is not true that "every other country" has parties
               | select their presidential (or nearest equivalent, whether
               | as head of state or head of government, other countries
               | frequently divorcing those roles) candidate by
               | simultaneous national elections. Sometimes, they don't
               | even (in a legal sense) choose a candidate _at all_ ,
               | though the party may have its own process of deciding and
               | announcing who its members responsible for the leadership
               | election (e.g., MPs in Westminster-style system) will
               | vote for should they secure the necessary majority to
               | decide the outcome on their own.
               | 
               | In fact, I couldn't off the top of my head name even a
               | single country that uses a national simultaneous primary
               | to select party nominees for election head of government
               | or head of state, can you?
        
               | philistine wrote:
               | You're on to something there. Keep digging. Perhaps
               | you'll come to the truth of the matter that the USA's
               | political system is undemocratic to no end.
        
               | LBJsPNS wrote:
               | Nah.
               | 
               | It was payback to Jim Clyburn for the stunt he pulled in
               | 2020 re: Bernie.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | The 2024 changes, inasmuch as they are about specific
               | elections and not the general long-term arc of the party,
               | are about 2028 more than 2024. No one is expecting a
               | significantly contested nominating contest when the party
               | has an incumbent President seeking reelection.
        
               | georgyo wrote:
               | Incumbents do have an advantage, but I wouldn't say they
               | aren't expecting a significant contested election. Trump
               | was the incumbent, and it was a pretty aggressively
               | contested.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > Incumbents do have an advantage, but I wouldn't say
               | they aren't expecting a significant contested election
               | 
               | I've clarified the grandparent: I was referring to the
               | nominating contest (the aggregate of primary elections
               | and caucuses that are addressed by the schedule change
               | being discussed), not the general election.
        
               | Name_Chawps wrote:
               | The prediction markets on PredictIt have the Democrats
               | winning at 52 cents, and the Republicans at 50 cents. You
               | should expect the election to be quite close.
        
               | RobAtticus wrote:
               | dragonwriter was talking about the Democratic primary.
        
               | lesuorac wrote:
               | Meh, if you look at the Candle for 90d you can see the
               | high/low for Nov3,4th of the 2020 election [1]. There's
               | so much volatility in that data its hard it's hard to
               | consider this an accurate predicator for 2024.
               | 
               | The volume for 2024 is also so low compared to 2020 so I
               | don't think you can use the current 2024 predictions as
               | evidence.
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-
               | will-win-t...
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | I'm talking about the Demcoratic nomination contest, not
               | the general election, but even in the latter case I would
               | expect prediction markets odds of victory more than a
               | year out to have very weak, if any correlation, to
               | _margin_ of victory. Heck, I don't know of any research
               | showing that prediction markets far from elections are
               | even good at predicting odds.
        
               | scotuswroteus wrote:
               | why not both?
        
           | westurner wrote:
           | Can Ethanol be sustainably produced from corn?
           | 
           | Which other crops have sufficient margin given commodity
           | prices?
           | 
           | Can solar and goats and wind and IDK algae+co2 make up the
           | difference?
           | 
           | Is solar laser weeding a more sustainable approach?
           | 
           | What rotations improve the compost and soil situation?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | gowld wrote:
           | Up to 83% or 85%:
           | https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/flextech.shtml
           | 
           | Really fun to pull into a gas station and accidentally fill
           | your tank with gas it can't handle.
        
           | dwighttk wrote:
           | Democrats have said South Carolina is kicking off their
           | primaries now.
        
           | parineum wrote:
           | We subsidize corn for the same reason we subsidize oil and
           | are starting to subsidize the semiconductor industry.
           | 
           | If we didn't subsidize food, we'd be importing a lot of food.
           | In the event of war, famine, plague, etc, we don't want to be
           | without a supply of food, fuel and now electronics.
        
           | retrac wrote:
           | It is surprising how much politics and law can affect what is
           | grown where. The US-Canada border cuts right across the
           | prairies. Conditions are pretty much identical in northern
           | North Dakota and southern Manitoba. Yet the border is clearly
           | visible on some maps of agricultural yield:
           | 
           | https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:OatsYield.png
           | 
           | https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:RyeYield.png
        
             | Scoundreller wrote:
             | Though lots of ethanol in Canadian gasoline too. Hard to
             | find any without 10% ethanol, even in jurisdictions with
             | limited corn growing.
             | 
             | What caused that?
             | 
             | Or do the US subsidies on corn make it cost effective for
             | Canadians to burn ethanol? If so, where's my cheap E85? I'd
             | run it in my old Corolla and see what happens.
        
               | 1letterunixname wrote:
               | Here, let me Google that for you :)
               | 
               | https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/taxpayers-ontario-
               | can...
               | 
               | Go ahead: your old Corolla will become a dead Corolla.
               | 
               | https://blog.raleighclassic.com/is-it-safe-to-use-
               | ethanol-in...
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | That's another uninformative anti-E85 link based solely
               | on theory and no evidence. Internet is full of such
               | "facts" where the question hasn't been answered beyond
               | rehashing the owner's manual.
               | 
               | Most of the issues it mentions would have been
               | experienced with E10. Largely it talks about classics
               | engineered in an ethanol-less era, which we haven't been
               | in for a while, but I'm sure most are being run on E10
               | anyway.
        
               | UncleEntity wrote:
               | Do you really think they would have put those "flex fuel"
               | badges on cars if they all could run E85 without
               | problems?
               | 
               | From my interwebs knowledge you need a fuel sensor (to
               | tell the percentage of ethanol) and an ECU that can take
               | advantage of the different fuel blendings.
               | 
               | So, yeah, maybe not a dead car but definitely not an
               | efficient one.
        
               | Hello71 wrote:
               | yes, I do think car vendors would affix stickers implying
               | that existing features are actually new additions (worth
               | paying extra for). I don't know if that's true in this
               | case, but I don't think it's an argument either way.
        
               | 1letterunixname wrote:
               | Whatever, pal. If you don't have anything of concrete
               | value to contribute, then don't complain about free. :)
               | 
               | I have one of those "classics" and have to hunt for low
               | ethanol fuel constantly.
               | 
               | It's a huge PITA to retrofit to modern fuel rails when
               | custom NLA injectors are $$$$.
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | There are several factors in addition to ethanol, right? US
             | livestock feed is primarily maize, but is that true in
             | Canada? And the US has nearly 10x as many cattle. It seems
             | like regulations are the primary driver in the border
             | split, but not all of the regulations are about ethanol
             | (also, Canada uses corn to make ethanol, too, in some
             | areas).
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | The prime Canadian corn growing regions are also oil
               | producing jurisdictions, so I could see their lack of
               | interest in oil alternatives.
        
             | goodpoint wrote:
             | > politics and law
             | 
             | Money and corruption to be more precise.
        
           | duped wrote:
           | Just because it was a plot point on the West Wing in 2006
           | doesn't make it reality. Iowa is not a kingmaker, and it's
           | not even the first state in the primary season for Democrats
           | anymore.
           | 
           | It's really just more mundane: BigAg is powerful and our
           | representatives take their money.
        
             | LanceH wrote:
             | I think the democratic party is upset that everyone wasn't
             | going along with the superdelegates who really have the
             | first votes. They want to choose their candidate and go
             | through the motions of a primary.
        
               | duped wrote:
               | It's been speculated the reason they shifted to SC was to
               | favor President Biden's
               | 
               | The one thing the Iowa caucus did was make it easier for
               | grassroots candidates. If they hadn't bungled the caucus
               | so badly in 2020 for example, Pete Buttigieg would have
               | had a better shot at it like Obama in '08 (he won the
               | caucus, but we didn't find out for weeks!).
        
           | rapind wrote:
           | It's not enough that we already subsidize them...
        
         | specialp wrote:
         | There is competitive demand with food supply but that is the
         | point. If we did not have surplus corn produced, the USA would
         | be very vulnerable to food disruptions. Because as we saw
         | during COVID, business supply chains are only optimized to
         | current demand without disaster. So if there is another channel
         | to purchase corn it creates more demand and keeps excess
         | production going at a price that is still possible to produce
         | at.
         | 
         | If the USA suddenly had a food crisis, the ethanol production
         | could be stopped.
        
           | Scoundreller wrote:
           | > If the USA suddenly had a food crisis, the ethanol
           | production could be stopped.
           | 
           | Could it? 99% of corn grown (including that used for ethanol)
           | isn't the sweet corn for eatin. Would take a while to switch
           | and I'm guessing there isn't much excess capacity for turning
           | it all into corn syrup and such.
           | 
           | COVID couldn't even figure out how to redirect institutional
           | toilet paper into consumer toilet paper. And that's the same
           | product!
           | 
           | The real buffer for a "food crisis" (whatever that is) is the
           | amount of crop fed to livestock and food exported, not
           | ethanol.
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | >COVID couldn't even figure out how to redirect
             | institutional toilet paper into consumer toilet paper. And
             | that's the same product!
             | 
             | Did the TP "shortage" actually get bad enough that a non-
             | negligible portion of the population had nothing to wipe
             | their bums with? Regardless, starving is much more dire
             | than having nothing to wipe with. If people were actually
             | starving, I'm sure they would have no issues eating field
             | corn intended for animal consumption.
        
         | DennisP wrote:
         | Wasn't ethanol added to replace MTBE, due to pollution concerns
         | after MTBE replaced lead? What should we use in place of
         | ethanol?
        
         | hatsunearu wrote:
         | Ethanol also is used as an octane booster. I'd rather take
         | Ethanol than MTBE or TEL.
        
           | throwaway5752 wrote:
           | This should be the highest rated response to the parent
           | because it's overwhelmingly used as a low octane fuel booster
           | additive, not a fuel.
           | 
           | If you have 85 gasoline and need to get it to 87, you blend
           | it with an appropriate quantity of ethanol (octane rating
           | 108.6, thanks for the correction).
           | 
           | Reference:
           | https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/ethanol_fuel_basics.html
        
             | fabianbumberger wrote:
             | Yeah, gas producers like it as cheap octane booster.
        
             | fsckboy wrote:
             | pure ethanol according to wikipedia has an octane rating of
             | 108 on the scale that's normally referred to. 100 is the
             | octane of a particular isomer of the hydrocarbon C8H18
             | which is called... octane!
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating#Examples
             | 
             | and for people not familiar with the subject, the purpose
             | of an octane booster is to make your fuel _less_ explosive
             | (even though the point of your fuel is to be exploded to
             | release it 's energy) The problem with low octane fuels is
             | not that they have lower energy, but that when you compress
             | them they can explode prematurely (before you're ready to
             | collect the energy) and compressing them is a way to get
             | more energy out of an engine. Ethanol is less explodey, and
             | so is tetraethyl lead.
        
           | gruez wrote:
           | That's a poor justification for the current regulatory regime
           | in which ethanol in gas is _mandated_. If MTBE or TEL then
           | they should be banned. If regular gasoline doesn 't have
           | enough octane, it should be up to the market to figure out
           | which octane booster should be used, rather than the
           | government enforcing use of ethanol by decree.
        
             | FinalBriefing wrote:
             | That's also how we ended up with leaded gasoline.
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | The fact that the current regulatory regime hasn't forced
               | the use of an octane booster that is acutely toxic is
               | more of a case of a broken clock being right twice a day
               | than it being good policy. I would even argue that in
               | this case, the broken clock isn't even "right". As the OP
               | points out, use of ethanol has negative consequences as
               | well, and the fact that its use is mandated basically
               | gets rid of any incentive to come up with a better octane
               | booster.
        
         | tstrimple wrote:
         | > places additional competitive demand on our food supply
         | (choice and competition between corn going into food or fuel
         | supply).
         | 
         | I'm not sure this is the case. The vast majority of corn is
         | field corn grown for silage anyway. The ethanol extraction
         | process leaves a mash which is then fed to cows. Given the soil
         | conditions, corn and soybeans will likely remain the most
         | profitable cash crops so unless subsidies are created for other
         | crop types not much would change. My perspective from living in
         | Iowa for 2/3rds of my life.
        
           | _greim_ wrote:
           | > The ethanol extraction process leaves a mash which is then
           | fed to cows.
           | 
           | Do analyses typically factor this sort of thing in, or do
           | they assume corn is grown solely for the purpose of ethanol
           | extraction?
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | It does have one plausible benefit which is managing crop
         | overproduction (supply demand mismatches) because if the market
         | is glutted, converting some of the production in ethanol or
         | similar long-lasting products is not a bad idea.
         | 
         | As the basis of a fuel supply, it's a very poor idea.
        
         | benp84 wrote:
         | I was under the impression that corn ethanol was effectively
         | solar energy because corn turns sunlight and carbon into
         | biomass then we burn the biomass back to atmospheric carbon.
         | Isn't that the fundamentals? Is there a big, basic reason it
         | doesn't work or is it lots of little side effects? Thanks for
         | weighing in.
        
           | marktangotango wrote:
           | The fundamental reason is producing ethanol from corn
           | requires quite a lot of energy; for cooking the mash and
           | distilling the final product. If the cycle was entirely
           | ethanol "all the way down" it could be carbon nuetral
           | although using ethanol for production would detract from the
           | "total efficiency". Invariably other fuels are used in
           | production.
           | 
           | I went through the math a few years ago from the perspective
           | of "micro power plants" for powering BTC mining. Coal is the
           | winner from a cost perspective; but terribly dirty obviously.
           | And capital intensive. Burning corn as fuel to a high
           | efficiency boiler is actually more efficient than ethanol.
        
           | WorldMaker wrote:
           | One other big, basic reason from early school Biology you are
           | missing is the Nitrogen Cycle. Earth crops are _not_
           | particularly efficient at fixating Carbon into biomass and
           | generally need plenty of other mineral inputs such as
           | potassium and phosphorous and zinc and especially Nitrogen.
           | Nitrogen alone is an interesting problematic  "inefficiency"
           | because Nitrogen wants to be a gas at Earth
           | pressures/temperatures (like Carbon) and so also needs to be
           | fixated and plants very rarely have evolved that sort of
           | fixation directly, instead relying on "the Nitrogen Cycle" to
           | (eventually) fixate it into soils.
           | 
           | One of the things humanity has done as it has industrialized
           | agriculture (to deal with the time issue of that
           | "eventually") is that it has industrialized "the Nitrogen
           | Cycle" as much as it can, and in so doing added a lot of
           | additional Carbon inefficiencies to how we fixate Nitrogen
           | for use by our crops. Modern crops couldn't grow at the same
           | industrial scales without modern fertilizers, but modern
           | fertilizers generally don't exist without massive carbon
           | subsidies.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrogen_cycle
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | It's not so much corn farmers as the operators of the ethanol
         | plants who benefit. Lots of funds and support and mandates for
         | their products to be bought.
         | 
         | Various things will always be done to prop up commodity prices
         | for American farmers, if not ethanol then something else.
        
         | Scoundreller wrote:
         | Ethanol is great for gas stations too. Your tank doesn't go as
         | far so you need to visit them more often.
         | 
         | Dunno how the complaints about ethanol = bad because it's
         | hygroscopic really are. Yeah, 100% ethanol will pull in
         | atmospheric h2o, but in a gasoline+ethanol mix?
         | 
         | If anything, a small bit of ethanol helps "break the phase" and
         | at least runs any moisture through your engine instead of a
         | separate layer which is surely worse. Dunno if any unscrupulous
         | gas stations/suppliers deliberately water down their ethanol
         | laden gas just to earn some extra margin.
        
           | greedo wrote:
           | Ethanol gas is terrible for most car engines and fuel
           | systems.
        
             | staringback wrote:
             | source: trust me bro
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | Now, let me tell you about the harms of seed oils on your
               | engine
        
             | Scoundreller wrote:
             | You saying the manufacturers haven't adapted anything for
             | cars to run on E10 in the first place?
        
       | titaniumtown wrote:
       | Is there other crops that can be turned into ethanol that would
       | be beneficial for the environment? Can't seem to find information
       | on that.
        
         | Sharlin wrote:
         | Sure. As far as I know, corn is only used in the US, for fairly
         | obvious reasons. Where I'm from it's made from carb-rich waste
         | and sidestreams from various sources. Of course, the yields do
         | pale in comparison to the corn megaindustry of the US, which
         | produces more fuel ethanol than the rest of the world combined.
         | 
         | Sugar cane is good, and used quite successfully in Brazil, but
         | of course only grows in sub/tropical climates. Sugar beet is
         | used in Europe to some extent, as well as staple crops like
         | wheat and rye - not sure how they compare to corn.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel
        
           | trollerator23 wrote:
           | There is potatoes. In WW2 the potato production in Nazi
           | Germany basically determined the launch rate of the V2
           | rocket, which used Ethanol derived from potatoes as fuel.
        
         | ravenstine wrote:
         | Yes, including sugar beets, sorghum, and even cattails.
         | 
         | As far as whether we will or should use other crops, I doubt
         | it. The whole thing with corn mostly came from the US having a
         | large surplus of corn and needing something to do with it.
         | Since we're operating on the false belief that the carbon cycle
         | itself is a bad thing, and because we're trying to move to
         | electric (theoretically), I don't think society is going to
         | invest itself into more ethanol.
        
       | fIREpOK wrote:
       | I thought that corn-based ethanol exists solely for the purpose
       | of taking advantages of government subversives and had nothing to
       | do with climate or the environment...
        
       | bilsbie wrote:
       | It's unreal how much ethanol lowers your gas milage too!
       | 
       | Experienced my local station switch to 10% and saw my milage go
       | from 28 to 24. Pretty positive no other factors changed.
        
         | tristan957 wrote:
         | This site might help you.
         | 
         | https://www.pure-gas.org/
        
       | dragontamer wrote:
       | Of course its Dr. Lark again. He's been contradicting USDA for
       | years.
       | 
       | There's something like 12+ PH.ds who are working in this field
       | and create papers consistently. 11 of them agree, and then Dr.
       | Lark comes out and disagrees.
       | 
       | Every couple of years, Dr. Lark comes out with a new set of
       | studies that contradicts everyone else. And then the news
       | organizations / hacker news around here focuses on what Dr. Lark
       | says rather than what the other 11 guys say.
       | 
       | ----------
       | 
       | I don't necessarily want to demean Dr. Lark or his work. But
       | people need to have context here. This guy is anti-Biofuel, and
       | has been since the early 00s (maybe earlier).
       | 
       | I'm not 100% sure what to do about this problem per se.
       | Contrarian professors are important parts of the scientific
       | process. Someone like Dr. Lark is very important to making sure
       | that everyone's i's are dotted and t's are crossed.
       | 
       | But the general "media" picks up on the contrarian, and uses that
       | as "Entire field is wrong, everybody is wrong" and shouts it from
       | the rooftops. Rather than... you know... rightfully pointing out
       | that they're focused on the contrarian.
       | 
       | --------------
       | 
       | We need contrarians like Dr. Lark. But we don't need media overly
       | focusing upon contrarians and highlighting their specific
       | research as if its the mainstream in the field.
       | 
       | See yall in 2 years when Dr. Lark publishes another contradictory
       | paper, like he always does.
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | I've seen a lot of these studies and the problem is always the
       | same: the real-world spread on the inputs and outputs is always
       | so much larger than what the report concludes. Since they're
       | comparing ethanol and gasoline, you have two spreads to consider.
       | As an example:
       | 
       | Worst-case for standard gasoline vs Best-case for corn ethanol:
       | 
       | A) Gasoline produced from Alberta tar sands syncrude (which has
       | to be melted and partially hydrogenated using natural gas piped
       | in from Northern Canada/Alaska) shipped by oil tanker (burning
       | dirty bunker fuel) to California refineries for conversion to
       | gasoline by distillation/cracking (with high CO2 emissions
       | related to use of fuel to drive the require heating of the heavy
       | crude oil);
       | 
       | B) Ethanol produced from corn grown with ammonia fertilizer made
       | by splitting water with sun/wind energy, planted and harvested
       | with renewable-powered electric equipment, and fermented and
       | distilled into 95% pure ethanol (the eutectic limit of
       | distillation) using only solar and wind power and in facilities
       | right next to the farmer's fields;
       | 
       | And, conversely, the best case for gasoline and the worst case
       | for ethanol:
       | 
       | C) Gasoline produced from regionally-produced light sweet crude
       | with a minimal need for transport, hydrogenation or extensive
       | processing, meaning much lower emissions from transportation and
       | refining (we could even have electrolytic hydrogenation from
       | water using sunlight to produce the hydrogen);
       | 
       | D) Corn produced in Kansas with large amounts of natural-gas-
       | manufactured ammonia fertilizer, lots of natural-gas-derived
       | synthetic pesticides and herbicides, planted and managed with
       | diesel-powered equipment, then shipped overseas to China for
       | fermentation and conversion to ethanol in a coal-fired ethanol
       | distillery.
       | 
       | So if you break those spreads down you get a ridiculously wide
       | range of estimates. Hence any specific number presented ('at
       | least 25%' in this case) doesn't really tell you that much, other
       | than if you dig through the specific methods used (which are
       | generally hard to find, sometimes they'll put the methods in
       | _another_ paper hidden behind a paywall) you can tell what
       | interest was backing this particular study. Some will even
       | include things like the carbon emissions needed to feed the
       | workers who grow the crops, or who work in the refinery, and so
       | on, which is just nonsense. (The emissions of the restaurant
       | workers who feed the oil refinery workers and the field hands
       | have to be accounted for...?)
       | 
       | Personally, I think artificial photosynthesis is the vastly
       | superior solution relative to either corn ethanol or crude oil
       | gasoline, as you could plausibly run it anywhere with access to
       | seawater and sunlight, saving agricultural land for food
       | production (and conserving ever-scarcer potable water as well).
       | It does however make sense to be able to convert excess
       | agricultural production into useful products, although just
       | composting it back into the soil might be wiser in the long run.
        
       | jeffwask wrote:
       | This is nothing more than a back door farming subsidy which is
       | also why it's so hard to kill.
        
       | Laaas wrote:
       | Intuitively this seems wrong. The explanation in the article
       | doesn't seem convincing. Any form of synthetic fuel that doesn't
       | take more carbon out of the Earth should be better, no?
        
         | hammock wrote:
         | More energy in the form of diesel and fossil fuel derived
         | fertilizer went into corn ethanol than you get out in usable
         | fuel
        
           | randomdata wrote:
           | Compared to the alternative, though? The corn will be grown
           | either way.
           | 
           | It's not hard to see 100 bushel per acre swings in corn yield
           | between growing years even within normal growing parameters,
           | never mind times of crop catastrophes. While everyone hopes
           | for a good year every year, you can't plan for a good year.
           | As such, there will always be times where there is way more
           | corn than we can handle.
           | 
           | Which is what happened in 2006. A lot of corn, having busted
           | the bins and having no home, was left out to rot. Ethanol
           | subsidies were introduced in 2007 to build out more ethanol
           | plants to provide a greater buffer in excess times when the
           | regular corn market can't absorb it all so that we aren't
           | _both_ burning gasoline and letting the corn rot away to
           | nothing.
           | 
           | I don't recall ethanol ever being considered better for the
           | climate in a vacuum. It was only ever thought to be when you
           | take reality into account.
        
             | hammock wrote:
             | >The corn will be grown either way.
             | 
             | Citation needed
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | When your turn corn into ethanol there is a byproduct
               | "distiller grains" that is fed to animals. This is feed
               | we would have to grow in some form anyway.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | randomdata wrote:
               | That was not a quote. No citation is possible. Is there a
               | reason for this bad faith participation?
        
               | mdp2021 wrote:
               | > _That was not a quote. No citation is possible_
               | 
               | (The expression is not to be read literally. 'Citation
               | needed', widespread after Wikipedia, rhetorically points
               | to that idea in a generalized intention including
               | "foundation needed". I.e.: "You need grounds to write
               | that".)
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | todd8 wrote:
               | I am not the poster you are replying to but calling that
               | post "bad faith participation" surprised me. Stopping
               | ethanol production will lower demand for corn so it is
               | conceivable that this would reduce the marginal value in
               | producing corn and cause some amount of corn production
               | to become worth less than the alternatives (like planting
               | different crops or less intense farming of corn field,
               | etc.)
               | 
               | To me at least, not being an agricultural economist, the
               | statement that the corn would be grown anyway wasn't
               | obvious on the surface; I too would have liked to have
               | seen some further justification for the claim.
        
               | randomdata wrote:
               | See, your comment comes in good faith. You clearly put
               | thought into and offer something that allows continuation
               | of the conversation.
               | 
               | "Citation needed" is a purposeful attempt to dead end a
               | conversation. It fundamentally cannot be replied to in a
               | reasonable way. What would even be cited? There was no
               | quote in which to cite. _Maybe_ if I scour Google hard
               | enough I 'll find someone else saying the same thing and
               | then I can pretend that I quoted it instead of using my
               | own words, but what would that gain?
               | 
               | The ethanol situation is an interesting topic that is
               | worthy of continued discussion, I agree. It's unfortunate
               | that the bad actor steered discussion away from it. Oh
               | well.
        
               | tstrimple wrote:
               | It doesn't seem to be bad faith. They are asking for your
               | evidence for the claim that corn will be grown anyway. I
               | agree that corn will continue to be grown anyway, but at
               | this point it's nothing but our opinions without
               | supporting evidence.
        
               | randomdata wrote:
               | They asked for a citation, not evidence. A citation that
               | cannot be provided as there was no quote in which to
               | cite.
               | 
               | Furthermore, good faith participation seeks to provide
               | equal value to the participants. "Citation needed" offers
               | nothing to other parties.
               | 
               | Apparently, according to another comment, "Citation
               | needed" is some kind of Wikipedia slang, but a website
               | that attempts to document knowledge is _very_ different
               | to a casual conversation and to try and conflate them,
               | again, can only be done so in bad faith.
        
               | thrill wrote:
               | Saying "the corn will be grown anyway" is not done in
               | good faith. The corn is grown because it is profitable to
               | do so. Remove subsidies and the corn will not be grown -
               | something else that is profitable will be grown.
        
               | randomdata wrote:
               | Of course it is profitable to do so. There is a large
               | market for it, from animal feed, to sugar, to tortillas,
               | to many things in between.
               | 
               | The trouble is that it's unpredictable how big the crop
               | will be before planting. As mentioned before, yields can
               | vary quite significantly from year to year. As such, you
               | will have periods of excess where we don't have enough
               | storage for it all. Ethanol was promoted as a way to
               | clean up those excesses before they turn to waste,
               | recapturing some of fuel that was put into its growth
               | initially.
        
               | kraussvonespy wrote:
               | When ~45% of US corn is used for ethanol production[1],
               | I'd say we can stop considering that "periods of excess"
               | and call it what it really is: grift.
               | 
               | [1] - https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/corn-and-
               | other-feed-gr...
        
               | randomdata wrote:
               | On the other hand, US soybean acres have grown by
               | essentially the same amount over the same period (63.78M
               | in 1983, 87.45M in 2022). It is well understood that
               | soybeans and corn are kept in the same rotation for a lot
               | of practical and ecological reasons, so how are you
               | establishing that it isn't excess as a byproduct of
               | producing other crops? None of this happens in a vacuum.
        
           | Laaas wrote:
           | This feels like the arguments against electric cars saying
           | the electricity is generated by fossil fuels anyway.
        
           | l33t233372 wrote:
           | I think that the post was saying that it doesn't require us
           | to take carbon out from deep within earth and put it into the
           | atmosphere.
        
             | uoaei wrote:
             | It's an irrelevant point. Carbon emissions include
             | logistics and manufacturing operations.
        
             | sbradford26 wrote:
             | The issues is that it does. Using tractors to farm and
             | harvest it all, all the industrial processes to create
             | fertilizer all require carbon to be taken from within the
             | earth. If you only look at the corn to fuel yes it doesn't
             | produce as much additional carbon, but once you include all
             | the externalities you have more carbon emitting processes.
        
       | frankreyes wrote:
       | Because farming equipment runs on gasoline.
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | Not since the mid 1960s at the latest. Sometimes hobby farms
         | have gasoline tractors. Many farms still have a working tractor
         | from the 1950s they use for small tasks. There is some random
         | lawnmower sized equipment with a gas engine. Overall though
         | diesel is much cheaper to run in the real world and so no "real
         | farm" uses gasoline for much farming.
        
         | WaitWaitWha wrote:
         | Depends on the farm. My farm ran on all diesel.
        
       | silverwasthere wrote:
       | I thought corn ethanol was for fuel diversity, not green energy.
        
         | milsorgen wrote:
         | It was positioned as both at one point. Really they just threw
         | out every imagined or perceived benefit and ran with it
         | irrespective of what the data was or is indicating.
        
       | Proven wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | cess11 wrote:
       | "Corn is not a _food_. Corn is a _platform_."
       | 
       | https://twunroll.com/article/1074810043495796736
        
         | Supermancho wrote:
         | The silly way they connect corn to bananas annoys me, which you
         | could do for literally anything, corn -> fuel -> lights -> you
         | ate near a light ergo CORN!
         | 
         | I don't see how this is anything but good. Having a single crop
         | for so many things, makes the replicator go brrr. Yes it's a
         | single point of failure, but it's efficient to use food
         | production to scale everything else and it's not a dead-end if
         | corn were to have problems (ie Interstellar)
        
         | ch4s3 wrote:
         | Corn has been the platform for civilization(s) in the Americas
         | since agriculture was invented in Mesoamerica.
        
           | cess11 wrote:
           | Arguably civilisation and market are orthogonal so the
           | marketisation and commodification under capitalism means
           | there's very little civilisation as well.
        
             | ch4s3 wrote:
             | I have know idea what this string of words means in
             | context. Agricultural products, especially staple grains
             | are all commodities, definitionally: "a raw material or
             | primary agricultural product that can be bought and sold,
             | such as copper or coffee." In the Inca store house system
             | for example, potatoes were the central commodity, and all
             | types of foods stuffs were made from the freeze dried
             | potatoes. In MesoAmerica corn was used for food, drink,
             | animal feed, and so on.
        
         | mouse_ wrote:
         | Great read. Starting a corn religion bbl.
        
       | mdp2021 wrote:
       | Given a perspective emerging from many posts, I would note:
       | 
       | behind the search for alternative fuels, there is the notion that
       | reserves for fossil fuels may deplete.
        
       | ravenstine wrote:
       | > The research, which was funded in part by the National Wildlife
       | Federation and U.S. Department of Energy
       | 
       | Can't imagine there's any conflict of interest there.
       | 
       | > ethanol is likely at least 24% more carbon-intensive than
       | gasoline due to emissions resulting from land use changes to grow
       | corn, along with processing and combustion.
       | 
       | The nice thing about words like "likely" is that it leaves the
       | door open for the other thing. Did the study find that ethanol
       | _is_ more carbon-intensive, or is it someone 's opinion that it's
       | more intensive?
       | 
       | I don't see how this adds up. As the article mentions, the carbon
       | atoms in ethanol came from the atmosphere to which it returns.
       | Yet not all of the carbon even makes it back. But the mere
       | tilling of the soil puts ethanol somewhere _worse_ than fossil
       | fuels?
       | 
       | By that logic, we'd better stop _farming crops_ all together.
       | 
       | > Tilling fields releases carbon stored in soil, while other
       | farming activities, like applying nitrogen fertilizers, also
       | produce emissions.
       | 
       | And we're to assume that, without the production of fuel ethanol,
       | the same land wouldn't be tilled and used for other crops?
       | 
       | What is the nature of the carbon in that soil? Is it carbon that
       | is constantly making its way up through the soil and into the
       | atmosphere? Does stable isotope testing corroborate that it's a
       | meaningful contributor to the global increase in atmospheric CO2?
        
         | retrocat wrote:
         | The research article is located here:
         | <https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2101084119>; if
         | you're interested in what "likely" means in this context, it
         | may be beneficial to read through the article. My understanding
         | is that the "likely" comes from it being an estimate using
         | models, as the research article states.
         | 
         | > Substituting our empirically derived domestic emissions for
         | those modeled in the RFS RIA would raise ethanol's projected
         | life cycle GHG emissions for 2022 to 115.7 g CO2e MJ-1--a value
         | 24% above baseline gasoline (93.1 g CO2e MJ-1). The RIA
         | estimate, however, includes improvements in feedstock and
         | ethanol production efficiency that were projected to occur by
         | 2022, such that the GHG intensity of ethanol produced at
         | earlier time periods and over the life of the RFS to date is
         | likely much higher [...].
         | 
         | My understanding is that they took the model used in the RFS
         | RIA (when the RFS was first introduced), and plugged in what
         | they've seen over the past few years to that model. Take that
         | with what you will.
         | 
         | > And we're to assume that, without the production of fuel
         | ethanol, the same land wouldn't be tilled and used for other
         | crops?
         | 
         | With the increase in demand for corn for fuel usage, more
         | fields are needed to plant the corn. Because the corn is for
         | fuel, not food, food wouldn't have been planted in place of the
         | corn had there not been fuel demand.
        
           | ravenstine wrote:
           | > With the increase in demand for corn for fuel usage, more
           | fields are needed to plant the corn. Because the corn is for
           | fuel, not food, food wouldn't have been planted in place of
           | the corn had there not been fuel demand.
           | 
           | Spent corn used in ethanol production becomes livestock feed.
           | Good quality feed, actually. Even with a surplus of spent
           | corn, it can be dried and kept around until needed. Point
           | being that it actually _is_ food, just by proxy. More fields
           | may be needed to scale for demand, but it wouldn 't be
           | linear. For all we know, the scale of corn production has a
           | modest relationship with ethanol or is correlative and weakly
           | causative.
        
         | cld8483 wrote:
         | _> > The research, which was funded in part by the National
         | Wildlife Federation and U.S. Department of Energy_
         | 
         |  _> Can 't imagine there's any conflict of interest there._
         | 
         | Pro-nuclear bias you figure? Does the DoE have another reason
         | to dislike corn?
        
         | neltnerb wrote:
         | It is worse than you probably think because of the fertilizer,
         | transportation of crops (and operating farm machinery), drying
         | of crops, fermentation to ethanol, and (perhaps most brutally)
         | distillation to high enough grade to mix with hydrophobic
         | gasoline.
         | 
         | I was doing reviews of at least a half dozen studies of this
         | that dated back to the mid '00s, back then the most optimistic
         | studies were around 1.3 joules of ethanol for 1 joule for
         | extraction (which excludes the sunlight). Meaning you're
         | burning 1 joule of gasoline to farm and transport and
         | manufacture 1.3 joules of ethanol. But the pessimistic
         | estimates from then were also below 1, meaning that you
         | literally use more petrochemicals to support growing the crop
         | than the crop produces in finished fuel.
         | 
         | Whether it's breakeven, a little positive, or a little negative
         | we've known for a long time that it's marginal at best, thus
         | the interest in cellulosic ethanol. Whether it's 0.7 joules out
         | or 1.3 joules out per joule in depends on assumptions like how
         | far you need to transport things and how dry the crops start.
         | There's no way to avoid that uncertainty.
         | 
         | That whether it's positive, unity, or negative is sensitive to
         | these variables is a statement of just how marginal it is. It
         | should just be positive, always, or what are we doing?
         | Confusingly, some _oil wells_ are barely breakeven because they
         | use so much energy to build the well and process the fuel.
         | 
         | You can follow the citations inside this article, but, for
         | instance:
         | 
         | > Resulting EROI is typically around 1.4-1.5 [for shale oil].
         | 
         | So every 1.4-1.5 joules of shale oil you burn required 1 joule
         | of other energy to extract. Net it produces only 0.4-0.5 joules
         | of free energy after extraction, and that's... well, arguably
         | not actually enough to operate a civilization but let's not go
         | there.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_return_on_investment#Sh...
         | 
         | Corn ethanol has been a scam and known to be one for a very
         | long time. Shale oil is marginally less of a scam, but is truly
         | hard to justify compared to PV solar or wind which both easily
         | exceed 4 and 34 depending on the details.
         | 
         | But no, variation in the estimated EROEI is entirely normal and
         | expected because different sites have different details.
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | Plowing the soil is a terrible thing to do. Which is why no
         | farmer has done it since around 1980. Modern tilling is much
         | better for the soil, and doesn't release as much carbon form
         | the soil (it needs more power from the tractor, and thus more
         | CO2 from fuel, but still a lot less carbon total because the
         | soil is saved.
         | 
         | The above is also why GMO crops are so great for the
         | environment: by using a little roundup (just a little - not
         | only is it a mist sprayed, but that mist is mostly water) much
         | less fuel is used vs cultivating (think mechanical hoe).
        
           | RosanaAnaDana wrote:
           | >Plowing the soil is a terrible thing to do. Which is why no
           | farmer has done it since around 1980.
           | 
           | Thats just not true. Plenty of farmers still plough. There
           | has been some movement to lower disturbance low-till/
           | minimum-till systems for commodity crops, but we're still
           | seeing soil carbon losses in agricultural soils in general.
           | Number isn't going up and to the right, its still going down
           | and to the left. I appreciate the importance of these kinds
           | of systems, but I also appreciate that its not nearly as well
           | adopted as one would think based on a survey of youtube
           | videos. There is a very real departure from the Internets
           | vision of farming and real-life farming in terms of practice.
           | 
           | I do agree however that carbon in the soils is the answer to
           | most problems. The closest thing I came to witnessing a fist
           | fight at work was between two 50+ yo scientists regarding
           | aluminium/ alumina ions and their relationship with soil
           | carbon. If geriatric scientsits are willing to raise
           | fisticuffs over it, you should wonder why they care so much.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Plouging is a specific subset of tilling. Many farmers
             | till, but it is a very different type of tool that is a lot
             | better for the soil. No-till and limited till are very
             | common as well, and there are government programs
             | encouraging them.
        
       | xen2xen1 wrote:
       | So "oil and water don't mix", as is often said. Oil/ gas with
       | corn based additives DO mix with water, so it cannot be piped
       | through a pipeline, thus making it be carried totally by truck,
       | and making it's carbon footprint even worse.
        
         | UncleEntity wrote:
         | I kind of doubt any of it is transported by truck but most
         | likely by train.
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | It cannot be put in existing pipelines. You can build a whole
         | new pipeline that will carry ethanol. Nobody wants to invest
         | that much money.
        
           | culopatin wrote:
           | For 10% replacement? Not worth it.
        
       | thinkthink wrote:
       | There is more to Ethanol than just fuel. Fuel does not make up
       | most of the production of these ethanol plants. Also, it would be
       | important to note that Reuters and this journalist have had to
       | retract an article on this very topic due "because of its flawed
       | interpretation of data on ethanol-plant pollution and fuel-
       | production capacity".
       | https://ethanolproducer.com/articles/19634/reuters-retracts-...
        
         | Scoundreller wrote:
         | > There is more to Ethanol than just fuel.
         | 
         | But mostly fuel. The amount of fuel burned by the average
         | person directly and indirectly is wayyyyyyy more than their
         | distilled beverage and hand sanitizer consumption.
        
         | UncleEntity wrote:
         | Is this article based on the same paper as the retracted
         | article?
         | 
         | Timeline seems to match up.
        
       | bennysonething wrote:
       | I still don't understand why we're still doing bio fuels. We've
       | known for decades that they are a disaster. Am I missing
       | something, is there evidence to the contrary?
       | 
       | For now I can't see how we can just stop fossil fuels without
       | starving half the world (as we need them for fertilizer
       | production). Never mind cement, plastics and steel.
        
         | tstrimple wrote:
         | Unfortunately policy decisions seem to rarely be made based on
         | evidence. It's a handout to farmers (and the entire ethanol
         | industry) which politicians don't want to touch.
        
         | HDThoreaun wrote:
         | We're doing it to pump corn prices. Also energy independence
         | from pre fracking days.
        
           | Scoundreller wrote:
           | Which pumps agricultural land values. Great news for retiring
           | farmers.
           | 
           | Cutting corn/food prices would bankrupt some overextended
           | corporate/new entrant farmers (and their lenders), but it's
           | not like the fields would become unharvested.
        
       | jonnycomputer wrote:
       | Not surprising; that's been the common wisdom for quite some time
       | now.
        
       | rr888 wrote:
       | Gasoline unlocks carbon that was buried underground. If we can
       | avoid that surely its better?
        
         | kccqzy wrote:
         | On a first approximation, food production (including corn) is
         | just channeling natural gas into fertilizers through Haber-
         | Bosch.
         | 
         | If the produced food isn't actually being eaten, it's just a
         | highly inefficient energy conversion Rube Goldberg machine.
         | 
         | Now to answer your question, food production unlocks plenty of
         | carbon underground through natural gas.
        
           | ch4s3 wrote:
           | Not to mention all of the fuel used to move around the
           | fertilizer, tractors, finished corn, the energy used to
           | grid/heat/ferment/distill into ethanol, and then to truck
           | around the ethanol. It's actually almost hilariously indirect
           | and inefficient when you think about it.
        
             | mdp2021 wrote:
             | Well all the final products (contextually, material fuels
             | or just energy) have a production history: to call one of
             | them inefficient you need to compare production processes.
             | Diesel fuel does not come ready from "diesel springs".
        
               | ch4s3 wrote:
               | What I mean is that to turn fuel into fuel with corn as
               | an intermediary is inherently inefficient vs using the
               | original diesel or gasoline directly.
        
         | frankreyes wrote:
         | But it doesn't. It's carbon positive, because it takes more
         | fuel to produce fuel than to just use that initial fuel as
         | fuel.
        
         | hammock wrote:
         | More energy in the form of diesel and fossil fuel derived
         | fertilizer went into corn ethanol than you get out in usable
         | fuel
        
       | ok123456 wrote:
       | So that means we're going to start phasing it out?
        
         | bluedino wrote:
         | There are only a couple gas stations around that still sell it
         | where I live. One grocery store chain and then Speedway.
        
         | ch4s3 wrote:
         | No, it's an agricultural subsidy that is important to states
         | that appear early in presidential primaries so its pretty well
         | locked in for now.
        
           | barathr wrote:
           | Iowa is losing that status this coming cycle, so things may
           | begin to shift.
        
             | ch4s3 wrote:
             | It's _Probably_ losing it 's place in the DNC primary, but
             | Michigan which plants 2 million acres of corn will be 5th
             | and Iowa still might be on Super Tuesday. If the RNC keeps
             | the early caucus it might turn into a more partisan issue
             | which might be worse.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > It's Probably losing it's place in the DNC primary,
               | 
               | The rule has already passed. It can defy the rule and
               | keep its early date, but then it will lose half its
               | delegates under the rule.
               | 
               | > Michigan which plants 2 million acres of corn will be
               | 5th
               | 
               | Fifth isn't second, and two million acres of corn in a
               | state with a $473B GDP is not the same significance as
               | thirteen million acres in a state with a $180B GDP
               | 
               | > Iowa still might be on Super Tuesday.
               | 
               | Most of the country that isn't on the early calendar is
               | on Super Tuesday
        
               | ch4s3 wrote:
               | Certainly all true, but I think it's still to be seen
               | what kind of influence the Corn Belt will have in the DNC
               | primaries, and what will happen with the RNC.
        
       | johncearls wrote:
       | A link to the study referenced if you are interested:
       | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2101084119
        
         | credit_guy wrote:
         | Thanks for the link.
         | 
         | As expected, the press distorted the study's conclusions to the
         | point of actually lying:                 "we find that the
         | production of corn-based ethanol in the United States has
         | failed to meet the policy's own greenhouse gas emissions
         | targets and negatively affected water quality, the area of land
         | used for conservation, and other ecosystem processes"
         | 
         | It's one thing to "fail to meet" some emissions reductions and
         | quite another to actually increase the emissions altogether.
        
       | megaman821 wrote:
       | This would be better positioned as a crop surplus and/or crop
       | waste to fuel initiative. The government could still encourage
       | overproduction of staple crops to guard against food shortages
       | while being a reliable buyer of the the surplus to make ethanol
       | out of.
        
       | ch4s3 wrote:
       | I think this has been well established for years. I remember
       | seeing some studies circa 2008 showing that more energy in the
       | form of diesel and fossil fuel derived fertilizer went into corn
       | ethanol than you get out in usable fuel. It has always been an
       | agricultural subsidy.
        
         | chasil wrote:
         | The ethanol is required as an anti-knock additive.
         | 
         | The past alternative was tetraethyllead, which had catastrophic
         | environmental impact.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead#Antiknock_agent
        
           | kube-system wrote:
           | It is used, but not required, as an anti-knock additive.
           | 
           | Unleaded E0 is still available in some places in the US with
           | octane numbers on par with E10 and E15 blends
           | 
           | https://stillwaterassociates.com/wp-
           | content/uploads/2017/11/...
           | 
           | https://www.pure-gas.org/
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Those are not the same gasoline. Ethanol is high octane and
             | so you mix it with a much worse grade of gasoline and get
             | the same octane. E0 advocates attribute to lack of ethanol
             | what is really just the better grade of gas.
        
               | m-ee wrote:
               | Ethanol absorbs water which doesn't always play nicely
               | with seals and fuel lines, or at least that's the
               | commonly held belief.
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | That's an issue if you're running E100. Gas+ethanol
               | blends will dramatically reduce ethanol's hygroscopicity.
               | 
               | But if water is getting into your fuel (focus on fixing
               | that, not your fuel choice), isn't it _better_ if the
               | ethanol can carry it through the engine instead of just
               | accumulating as a separate layer?
        
               | m-ee wrote:
               | Nothing scientific but on motorcycle forums I used to
               | frequent people often blamed E15 for seals swelling up
               | and no longer working. I can't say if that's the cause
               | but I did have a face gasket between the fill neck and
               | tank expand. After sitting out for a few days it shrunk
               | back to its original shape.
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | How old are the motorbikes though? I could see it being
               | an issue on bikes built before >=e10 became nearly
               | unavoidable.
               | 
               | I wish my gaskets would swell a bit. All of my auto
               | seal/gasket problems were on the intake manifold or oil
               | system interfaces.
        
           | glitchc wrote:
           | I find ethanol actually increases knocking in all of my
           | engines. Switched to ethanol free years ago and I recall it
           | made a difference in performance and mileage.
        
             | pengaru wrote:
             | Just like if you try run a gasoline engine on alcohol
             | without adjusting the fueling it'll be too lean and knock
             | if it runs at all, you'll be too lean with sufficient
             | ethanol in the gasoline without adjustment.
             | 
             | But they're still higher octane fuels. E85 is specifically
             | sought out for this purpose in the gearhead scene, so they
             | can run high boost getting something alcohol-like at the
             | pump.
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | Lots of anecdata of people running their regular vehicles
               | on E85 without issues.
               | 
               | Lots of theoretical concerns "omg, you're not following
               | the owner's manual, god is going to blow up your engine
               | and kill 4 kittens", but either nobody has blown an
               | engine or hasn't admitted to it.
               | 
               | https://youtu.be/scgtGxxgx6M
               | 
               | Plenty of parts of the world where E85 is substantially
               | cheaper than E10 (e.g. France where it's ~43% cheaper)
               | where I'm sure lots of people are running it or various
               | mixes.
        
             | mywittyname wrote:
             | It will take time for the computer in the car to detect the
             | ethanol and switch to a high ethanol fuel map. In the mean
             | time, the engine is going to run pretty lean, since more
             | ethanol is required than gasoline for the same volume of
             | air. Running too lean usually causes the engine to buck and
             | shake pretty badly.
             | 
             | This, of course, assumes that the car is even capable of
             | running higher ethanol blends.
             | 
             | The performance benefits are mostly from turbocharged
             | engines. Though, Chevy V8s can see solid torque gains over
             | 4000 RPMs.
             | 
             | Once you get into the E50+ blends, you should have seen a
             | huge mileage reduction. 10-20% for E50 and 25+% on E85.
             | There's so much less energy density in ethanol.
        
               | bluedino wrote:
               | > Though, Chevy V8s can see solid torque gains over 4000
               | RPMs.
               | 
               | The gains will come in well before that
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Unless your car has a turbocharger or other means to run
               | a higher compression ratio and thus take advantage of the
               | higher octane of ethanol fuel. I've seen this done in lab
               | and garage settings (they typically don't retain the
               | ability to run regular gasoline), but I'm not aware of
               | any commercially available engine that does. Race
               | settings similar things as well, but they are trying to
               | get power not fuel efficiency and so you can't get a fair
               | fuel efficiency measure.
        
               | lloeki wrote:
               | > I'm not aware of any commercially available engine that
               | does
               | 
               | Engines with knock sensors and advanced valve timing +
               | phasing can do that. Source: mine does, stock '08 K20
               | engine, which has a very wide operational RPM range, so
               | these things matter.
        
               | bluedino wrote:
               | You'll get a solid 20-30lb/ft gain on a GM or Ford V8
               | with E85.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | That's such a small difference it could literally just be
               | that it's a slightly richer setting because E85 needs a
               | higher fuel ratio for Stoichiometric burning.
        
               | bluedino wrote:
               | That is not a small difference, and you can't get 30lb/ft
               | by "richening things up"
        
               | mywittyname wrote:
               | GM cars run separate tuning maps for E85 and E15 with an
               | ethanol sensor to help the engine decide which to use.
               | 
               | You're not going to see the insane power gains possible
               | on E85 from the factory though because the E85 map needs
               | to be conservative enough to no blow up if someone
               | suddenly fills up with regular.
        
           | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
           | If that's true, why is it required by law? If it was
           | necessary, it wouldn't have to be legislated.
        
           | blahyawnblah wrote:
           | Octane on its own is an anti-knock additive. And ethanol
           | actually makes your mileage go down because it is less energy
           | dense.
        
             | rightbyte wrote:
             | How can adding octane be an anti-knock additive? Isn't the
             | rating normalized too octane, so it can't bring the average
             | under 100, ever?
             | 
             | Like, compared to even worse carbon chains than octane?
             | 
             | Edit: Never mind got the scale backwards. I'll keep the
             | comment here to shame myself.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Octane is a measure of the relatives ratios of the octane
               | molecule with some other (I can never remember which).
               | 100 octane means the fuel acts in your engine the same as
               | fuel made from 100% octane molecule. 0 octane means it
               | acts like 100% the other, 90 octane mean it acts like a
               | mix of 90% octane and 10% the other.
               | 
               | You can go below 0 or above 100 if you find some other
               | molecule/mix that acts worse/better, though how you
               | extrapolate beyond the 0-100 range is subject to debate,
               | confusion and deception. Ethanol is clearly better than
               | pure octane, though how much depends on how you choose to
               | extend the scale.
        
               | TylerE wrote:
               | There's also the issue of how/what exactly you're
               | measuring. There are two different scales that result in
               | European readings being several points higher (eg US 93
               | is ~ Euro 98)
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | It's a hand out to Iowa because of how presidential caucusing
           | occurs. It should go away as gasoline consumption declines
           | and EV uptake ramps.
           | 
           | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-iowa-
           | biofuel...
        
           | TylerE wrote:
           | Not true. We went decades without lead or ethanol. You can
           | still get ethanol-free gas if you look hard, and modern
           | engines run quite happily on it.
        
             | pengaru wrote:
             | It's not like lead-free and eathanol-free gas is devoid of
             | anti-knock agents... for much of those decades MTBE was
             | used which was part of a groundwater contamination scandal.
             | 
             | Wikipedia has an interesting article on the subject @
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiknock_agent
        
         | milsorgen wrote:
         | Yes I remember corn based ethanol, among other alternatives for
         | liquid fuel production, were hot topics during the Bush
         | Administration. If I recall correctly an issue of
         | NatGeo/SciAm/NewSci wrote that it wouldn't achieve it's goals
         | or benefits and there better avenues such as algae to explore
         | and I believe at least for Brazil, further sugar cane waste
         | utilization. It always struck me as odd to see we've stayed the
         | course on this approach when even in the beginning the numbers
         | weren't adding up.
        
           | hammock wrote:
           | The DOE lists three benefits - energy security, jobs and
           | offset carbon emissions. If the net carbon one turns out to
           | be bogus, the other two benefits remain
           | 
           | https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/ethanol_benefits.html
        
             | AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote:
             | Jobs for the jobs god is just the broken window fallacy
             | though. If employing people in ethanol production is
             | hastening the ruination of our environment, lets just give
             | them money not to do that instead.
        
               | ch4s3 wrote:
               | Mostly it pulls those people away from more economically
               | productive activities. What might those farmers otherwise
               | plant? What about the associated ag businesses? Surely
               | they wouldn't evaporate. And the ethanol processing
               | plants could probably make other distilled products for
               | industrial use.
        
               | hammock wrote:
               | We do that too. It doesn't work:
               | https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/29/usda-farmers-
               | conser...
        
       | r00fus wrote:
       | The only way this gets resolved is when political parties stop
       | pretending that Iowa is somehow representative of their voters
       | and shift the primary schedule to put it farther behind other
       | states.
       | 
       | Democrats especially shouldn't put up with Iowa considering how
       | it hasn't voted D anytime recently. Not to mention the completely
       | FUBAR 2020 primary.
       | 
       | Make GA or NH first contest.
       | 
       | Then a lot less pressure for this losing ethanol boondoggle.
        
         | dragonwriter wrote:
         | > Make GA or NH first contest.
         | 
         | The DNC already voted to make SC first in 2024 (the early -
         | pre-Super Tuesday - order in the new rule being SC => NH & NV
         | => GA => MI)
        
       | twiddling wrote:
       | But great for votes in corn producing states
        
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