[HN Gopher] Cognitive sophistication does not attenuate the bias...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Cognitive sophistication does not attenuate the bias blind spot
       (2012)
        
       Author : yamrzou
       Score  : 102 points
       Date   : 2023-02-20 10:30 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
 (TXT) w3m dump (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | largepeepee wrote:
       | History is full of talented people who squandered their talents
       | onto meaningless endeavours.
       | 
       | Take the famed scientist Issac Newton for example, despite all
       | his scientific knowledge and logical reasoning he wasted the
       | second half of his life trying to turn other metals into gold,
       | alchemy - based nothing more than biblical text.
       | 
       | Big brain does not prevent ideological blindness.
        
         | tmn wrote:
         | I'll ignore the argument that alchemy was a precursor to modern
         | science. An iron man version of 'lead to gold' is that it was
         | never about literally turning lead to gold (which modern
         | science can do).
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alchemy
         | 
         | 'Esoteric interpretations of historical texts'
         | 
         | From this lens, alchemy becomes a form of spiritual meditation.
         | You can argue that such things are meaningless endeavors. But
         | this is itself a subjective take. What are meaningful endeavors
         | really?
         | 
         | If I want to take a nihilistic frame, I'll strengthen your
         | comment and say it's impossible to avoid meaningless endeavors.
         | 
         | Inevitably one must pick their bias and arrive at their
         | narrative.
        
         | xyzzy123 wrote:
         | Newton was a complex person and I think this is an overly
         | reductive take on both his life and study of alchemy.
        
           | heavenlyblue wrote:
           | Is the next thing you are going to say that it's an overly
           | reductive take on the alchemy as described in The Bible?
        
             | batch12 wrote:
             | Where is this description? I am having a difficult time
             | finding a reference to performing alchemy in the Bible.
        
               | h2odragon wrote:
               | That was one of the things that made alchemy so much fun;
               | all the "instructions" were "encoded" and literally
               | occult. Much of what they were doing was hunting for the
               | keys to a known ciphertext (the Bible) that would give
               | them the secrets of the universe, once they decoded it
               | correctly.
               | 
               | Of course we're far too bright and sophisticated to fall
               | into such folly today. You won't fond modern peoples, for
               | example, having passionate arguments about the meanings
               | of text generated by mechanical / statistical processes.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | hprotagonist wrote:
         | a more apt vignette from newton's life is that he absolutely
         | lost his shirt on speculative investments in a bubble that
         | collapsed and took one of the finest minds to the cleaners.
        
         | mogacom wrote:
         | Historical context is important to take into account with
         | Newton. He had no idea he was doing "science" as opposed to
         | something else. He was trying to systematically investigate the
         | natural world in an environment largely composed of ignorance
         | and myth, which he was also part of. Wasn't alchemy simply
         | chemistry before chemistry had been developed into a well-
         | defined field of study? His obsession with the dimensions of
         | Solomon's temple is a little hard to understand though!
        
         | stocknoob wrote:
         | After inventing modern physics and calculus I'd think I had the
         | golden touch, too.
         | 
         | Newton took a lot of intellectual paths, from tinkering with
         | prisms to thinking about the paths of the heavens. Only looking
         | back can we say "oh, you wasted your time investigating x and
         | y, but z was right on. Why didn't you just bat 1000?"
        
         | oh_sigh wrote:
         | It seems he was just overly credulous. Yes, he was very
         | Christian, but I imagine if he got some ancient text from China
         | on how to transmute lead to gold he would give it a shot
        
         | marginalia_nu wrote:
         | > Take the famed scientist Issac Newton for example, despite
         | all his scientific knowledge and logical reasoning he wasted
         | the second half of his life trying to turn other metals into
         | gold, alchemy - based nothing more than biblical text.
         | 
         | Prior to the atomic model invented several hundred years later,
         | given there was examples of metals turning into other metals
         | (i.e. iron turning into steel, copper turning into brass)...
         | 
         | I don't think there was much of a reason to think that the
         | transmutation of metals into Gold wouldn't be possible. And it
         | in fact sort of turns out to _be_ possible in certain
         | circumstances. We can make gold from lead (although it requires
         | a particle accelerator).
        
           | largepeepee wrote:
           | Certainly there is that possibly, problem is where he stemmed
           | his research from - biblical text.
           | 
           | He used dates and accounts of ancient myths for many of his
           | data points.
           | 
           | Combing the bible over and over for clues, wasting much of
           | his talent and decades on false leads.
           | 
           | Flawed research leading to dead ends despite his brilliance.
           | 
           | Which is the point of the post, intelligence does not make
           | one immune to bias.
        
           | zmgsabst wrote:
           | Alchemists being "wrong" is like Michelson-Morley "failing":
           | 
           | More branding than reality, since we accomplished their
           | projects later -- transmuting elements and detecting the
           | aether.
           | 
           | Ironically, this seems to be a cognitive bias -- we never
           | update our first impression nor put together a story across
           | terminology changes. Carlo Rovelli gives an interesting talk
           | on how we're too quick to dismiss ancient scholars.
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=an5-KLvvMGM&t=1199s
        
             | marginalia_nu wrote:
             | It's really fascinating to read historical accounts of
             | science. Cicero's De Natura Deorum has an incredible
             | account various antique world views and how they're
             | motivated. Most of it is wrong in some sense in the light
             | of modern science, but what's fascinating is how often they
             | get things right.
             | 
             | It's like they're using poorly chosen basis vectors, and
             | muddling some concepts we now understand to be distinct:
             | They seem to have associated energy and/or thermodynamic
             | heat with the element of fire; the gaseous phase with air
             | and buoyancy, the liquid phase with water, the solid phase
             | with earth and gravity.
             | 
             | It's very clear why the model stood for as long as it did
             | despite some remarkably clever people looking into it. It
             | actually fits the empirical evidence pretty well.
        
             | evv555 wrote:
             | >More branding than reality, since we accomplished their
             | projects later -- transmuting elements and detecting the
             | aether.
             | 
             | Arguably this was accomplished using the work of
             | alchemists. Ontologies tend to progress through stages of
             | differentiation of components("stamp collecting") followed
             | by integrative models. Mendeleev doesn't find periodic
             | patterns in elements without alchemists first inventorying
             | elemental features.
        
       | 1letterunixname wrote:
       | As the bumper sticker says: "No shit." Intelligence in one domain
       | does not necessarily translate to all areas. There are
       | uncountable millions of gifted people who are low functioning in
       | other domains.
       | 
       | Contrary to this are the individual fallacies of overconfidence
       | and the collective fallacy of the genius halo effect.
       | 
       | There is also a tendency to failure aversion by avoid domains
       | outside of performant ones.
       | 
       | The safest assumption is: 1. Your areas outside of performant
       | ones are lacking until proven otherwise with feedback. 2. Don't
       | worry about not being an omnipotent polyglot, polymath. Seek
       | excellence, just don't go crazy or drive everyone else nuts.
       | Theory of mind and frame taking by considering putting yourself
       | in others' proverbial shoes isn't necessarily something people
       | are born with, it has to be taught and learned. Some people do
       | have harder times because they have to intellectualize it if they
       | are emotionally disconnected from others and/or themselves, or
       | have a neurotype that doesn't lend itself to smooth observation
       | of social and situational state of others.
        
         | peatmoss wrote:
         | This is one of those things where I've lived the XKCD comic
         | (https://xkcd.com/793/).
         | 
         | I once had a job where I was part of the supporting technical
         | crew for some very smart people with some truly impressive
         | accomplishments. A colleague and I sometimes groused about the
         | challenges of working with "universal domain specialists."
        
           | dkarl wrote:
           | Tests and version control... why do you bother with all that
           | ceremony? It seems like a lot of work that could go towards
           | making the code better.
           | 
           | To play devil's advocate, though, I do think that something
           | is lost if everyone stops themselves from asking questions on
           | the grounds that everyone has good reasons for everything
           | they do and therefore there's no point having thoughts about
           | someone else's job. Even if you assume the first part, the
           | second doesn't follow. Understanding other people's jobs
           | helps you work better with them, and if you don't understand
           | the purpose of something they're doing, that probably
           | indicates an opportunity to understand them better. Second,
           | looking at it from the other side, we all benefit from
           | answering beginner questions. What's the difference between
           | the innocence of a child and the innocence of somebody who
           | has studied physics their whole life and never had to support
           | a piece of software? When children, or physicists, ask
           | questions that are hard for us to answer, we can learn
           | something in the attempt.
           | 
           | The only difference between being posed "dumb" questions by a
           | child and an adult from another field is if they think you're
           | an idiot. (Honestly, that isn't even a difference. We just
           | don't mind if children walk around thinking adults are all
           | idiots most of the time. We expect differently from them
           | after they grow up.)
           | 
           | Reading between the lines, I think some people regard the
           | momentary joy of thinking you see something that someone else
           | doesn't as a bit of corruption in the soul, a moral root
           | cause. I don't think it's a bad thing, though. Imagine
           | playing chess against someone much better than you and
           | getting excited because you think you can take a piece and
           | get a winning advantage. The odds are very high that you are
           | wrong, or that you're going to take the piece and then lose
           | anyway, but what are you going to do? You're going to take
           | the piece, pose them the question! Or else there's no fun in
           | playing the game. Some people would argue that the excitement
           | that arises in your mind at that point is wrong, not just in
           | the sense of not being supported by reason, but a morally
           | wrong response, arrogant, disrespectful of the better player,
           | a toxic feeling that we should strive to eliminate and
           | certainly strive not to show to other people. But it isn't
           | necessarily, and we don't have to take it that way.
           | 
           | Where it can change from innocent to annoying and even toxic,
           | depending on how people handle it, is when the expert can't
           | provide an answer that satisfies the innocent. At that point
           | the innocent (or the expert) might get angry or
           | condescending, or might simply badger the other person in a
           | time-wasting way, insisting that the matter can't be dropped
           | until agreement is reached. Or one or both of them might walk
           | away thinking the other person is an idiot.
           | 
           | But that doesn't have to happen. They can let it go
           | gracefully. The innocent can walk away thinking, "I don't
           | understand their reason for doing that," the expert can walk
           | away thinking, "I don't know how to explain it to someone
           | with their background," and they both have food for further
           | thought.
        
       | qikInNdOutReply wrote:
       | There is a whole interleafing flower petal of mental bug
       | categorys:
       | 
       | Detectable | Undetectable
       | 
       | Fixable | Unfixable
       | 
       | Workaround | No-Workaround
       | 
       | Cost of workaround (Big O)
       | 
       | Individual | Society
       | 
       | Non-Meta | Meta (Bug is created by several other bugs recombining
       | into a functional or dysfunctional cluster)
       | 
       | Some bugs you cant fix, cause society depends on it while also
       | suffering with it. Humanity sized Behaviour DBs and Datamining is
       | the real Psychology!
        
       | 2devnull wrote:
       | A lot of great comments here about the difficulty recognizing
       | one's own biases. A related thing I like to think about is the
       | jungian concept of the shadow; if we can see it, it's not the
       | shadow.
       | 
       | I do think we can look for evidence that we are at least limiting
       | the impact of our biases. For example, if you don't change
       | political affiliations at least once or twice in your lifetime,
       | that's probably a sign you're controlled by your biases and not
       | really as free or rational as is optimal. What's the old saying,
       | if you aren't a liberal in your youth you have no heart; if you
       | aren't conservative as you get older you have no brain. But I
       | think moving in the opposite direction is also a good indicator
       | of free thinking. A foolish consistency is the hob goblin of
       | little minds. Dynamic thinking is the only real thinking. We
       | should grow and evolve overtime.
        
       | apienx wrote:
       | It'd be interesting to see how the Skeptics and other bias-aware
       | groups perform. It's hard to imagine the folks at the Center For
       | Applied Rationally doing just as bad as the average Joe.
       | 
       | It's hard to believe that you can't train yourself into
       | hypervigilance and extraordinary awareness. Practicing with
       | intent is a very different animal from "cognitive sophistication"
       | (however the paper defines it).
        
         | jgeada wrote:
         | You _cannot_ be an expert in everything, it is impossible; the
         | domain of human knowledge and experience has grown too vast for
         | anyone to be conversant with anything more than a minor
         | fraction. So, sooner or later, either you distrust everything
         | and you become a conspiracy theorist or you rely on experts.
         | Who you choose to trust as experts gives you a bias.
         | 
         | My personal observation (ie read this as anecdote, not data) is
         | that skeptics frequently choose to select as their expert the
         | lone dissenter in the field. My interpretation is not that the
         | skeptics I know are truly skeptics, they're contrarians who
         | don't trust institutional knowledge or consensus.
        
         | 8f2ab37a-ed6c wrote:
         | The science seems to show that it's very hard (possibly almost
         | impossible) to de-bias yourself, which is why humans have to
         | rely rely on other humans with outside perspective as a
         | counter-balancing force. This assumes that conflict of opinions
         | is welcome and accepted by the group, which is unfortunately
         | not always the case, leading to echo chambers and groups
         | confirming and reinforcing existing beliefs.
        
       | blfr wrote:
       | Are these biases wrong though? In a hypothetical perfectly
       | spherical chickens in vacuum world, yes, but in reality you
       | probably want some outcome bias for example because you don't
       | control all the variables.
       | 
       | So the analysis of perception of that bias and bias blind spot
       | strike me as interesting but rather useless.
        
         | lumb63 wrote:
         | Your comment gave me an interesting way to think about biases:
         | Bayesian statistics. It is no wonder we see people end up at
         | vastly different conclusions when their starting point (bias)
         | is so different. Coupled with this, bias is probably correlated
         | with experiences to some extent, leading two different
         | individuals to entirely different conclusions.
         | 
         | This is a good argument for devolution, IMO. Today's politics
         | is too large-scale and winner-take-all to accurately represent
         | all its constituents. For instance, a topic like immigration in
         | the US has no solution that will appease everyone, because
         | there are so many different viewpoints that conflict with each
         | other. We should let smaller populations with a higher level of
         | concurrence govern themselves accordingly.
        
         | naasking wrote:
         | They're wrong if you're interested in truth, just maybe not
         | wrong if you're interested in reproductive fitness. We're not
         | so concerned about the latter these days so much as the former.
        
       | boomboomsubban wrote:
       | >Additional analyses indicated that being free of the bias blind
       | spot does not help a person avoid the actual classic cognitive
       | biases.
       | 
       | This is the worst part. Being fully aware that people are biased
       | and that you are not a special exception to that isn't helpful.
       | You're still just as likely to let bias influence your actions,
       | and you'll probably try to justify yourself as having good
       | reasons for your biased actions.
        
         | yodsanklai wrote:
         | > You're still just as likely to let bias influence your
         | actions, and you'll probably try to justify yourself as having
         | good reasons for your biased actions.
         | 
         | I really don't think everybody is equally biased. Some people
         | at least try to use reason and science to guide their beliefs,
         | why other will systematically deny all evidences. Also people
         | who are aware of biases are more likely to recognize their
         | errors when called out with logical arguments.
        
           | naasking wrote:
           | > why other will systematically deny all evidences
           | 
           | Sure, but they also do so for specific reasons, like that
           | considering evidence failed them in the past in some
           | significant way. Possibly they just didn't do it right, but
           | it's just incorrect to think people are the way they are for
           | no logical reason.
        
             | tired-turtle wrote:
             | A specific reason is not a logical reason; sure, the
             | decision 'made sense' to that person at the time, but it's
             | irrational within the broader schema of life.
             | 
             | (I think that's what you meant?)
        
           | boomboomsubban wrote:
           | This sounds pretty close to a standard bias blind spot. Do
           | you consider yourself more or less biased than the average
           | person?
        
             | yodsanklai wrote:
             | I didn't say that. From experience dealing with people, I
             | just think that not everybody is equally biased. Just like
             | not everybody is equally good at maths, music or sport.
        
               | boomboomsubban wrote:
               | You didn't specify what you do, but you clearly laid out
               | what you see as the biased and the unbiased way. It's not
               | that simple. Everyone thinks their decisions are based on
               | reason, and most people will sometimes ignore evidence.
               | 
               | Maybe some people are better at avoiding bias than
               | others, but from my experience people will be better in
               | some areas while still prone to it in other areas.
        
           | SamoyedFurFluff wrote:
           | I'm a little confused by this because I don't know if it's
           | possible to measure biases and proclaim that someone is more
           | biased than the other. One of the things that comes to mind
           | is that one person may have weakly held or strongly held bias
           | (maybe differentiating being biased to being bigoted?). How
           | do you compare multiple weakly held biases vs one very
           | strongly held one? How do you count biases when you yourself
           | are also biased and therefore will very likely undercount any
           | biases aligning with your own?
        
         | yamrzou wrote:
         | That's why we need feedback from others.
         | 
         |  _"A system cannot understand itself without help from outside
         | the system, because prior experiences will bias objectivity,
         | preventing critical analysis of the organization."_ -- Edward
         | Deming
        
           | aatd86 wrote:
           | Until you realize that part of you is a black box to others
           | and only you have access to some of your internal state.
           | 
           | So, yes and no. That's why self awareness, perhaps via proper
           | meditation, although I thought it was some hippy shit at
           | first, is actually valuable.
        
           | luckylion wrote:
           | How often can you get feedback from someone until they've
           | become part of your system and are no longer an outsider?
        
             | Byamarro wrote:
             | This is such a valid point. I've experienced it myself.
             | When you're on a team, after some time team members start
             | developing shared biases. It's enough that some previous
             | discussion was railroaded certain way to make it harder for
             | the team members to think outside of the box shaped by
             | previous conversations.
        
       | michaelt wrote:
       | Available from the coauthor's website at
       | http://www.keithstanovich.com/Site/Research_on_Reasoning_fil...
        
       | golemiprague wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | at_a_remove wrote:
       | My methodology, such as it is, goes like:
       | 
       | 1) Receive information.
       | 
       | 2) Assume that I am being lied to, manipulated, shaded, data
       | elided, whatever, sometimes by accident, sometimes by intent, but
       | at least several levels removed from whomever delivers the
       | information.
       | 
       | 3) Seek out information that says the exact opposite.
       | 
       | 4) Repeat Step 2.
       | 
       | 5) Start looking for little tricks: what has been left out? If we
       | are judging person X for act Y, are we not judging other parties
       | for Y? Is the timing convenient for a distraction?
       | 
       | 6) Resign myself to a state of uncertainty in a world of lies.
        
       | maCDzP wrote:
       | How does members of the HN crowd try to combat this?
       | 
       | Or is it just another exercise in futility where the actual
       | exercise is just part of the thing that make me biased in the
       | first place?
       | 
       | I'll go first. I see a therapist every other week. I hope that
       | gives me an outsiders point of view.
       | 
       | But I think I have identified a way to know where my biases are
       | could be strong. When I get a really uneasy feeling when I start
       | to think about making changes in a certain area. And I don't know
       | if it's a rational fear or just a sunk cost fallacy.
       | 
       | What I find really scary is that I have hard time understanding
       | if I am just fooling myself or being rational. Because it's
       | always my own mind coming up with explanations, so the actual
       | process looks the same to me.
       | 
       | I read a book called "Quit" recently and it gave me a lot to
       | think about regarding biases and quitting different endeavors.
       | Can recommend.
        
         | smiley1437 wrote:
         | A little humility goes a long way for correcting biases
        
           | asdf123wtf wrote:
           | Here's my little folk "wisdom" addendum to your great point:
           | 
           | * Try to replace any judginess you feel, with curiosity
           | 
           | (Easier said than done - but a little humility is a great
           | first step towards getting to that curious state of mind)
           | 
           | Curiosity places understanding something ahead of justifying
           | something. It makes self-interrogation easier and less
           | threatening to the ego. It makes engaging with those who hold
           | differing beliefs more about understanding/exploring, and
           | less like doing battle.
           | 
           | That's my theory anyways, but it could be my bias talking.
           | 
           | And I fail at taking my own advice, often. ;P
        
         | jvanderbot wrote:
         | I try to fully rationalize the opposing viewpoints. To the
         | point that I cannot disdain anyone for taking those viewpoints
         | because I completely understand why they would think that way,
         | and can see my own self from their POV.
         | 
         | It does not at all prevent me from having bias, but it at
         | least, with effort, on a case by case basis, lets me adopt
         | someone else's bias.
         | 
         | After all, there is no unbiased person so what's the point?
        
           | kilgnad wrote:
           | How far can you take it? Can you talk about implementing
           | eugenics? Because scientifically it's not a completely
           | invalid idea.
           | 
           | Preventing people with genetic defects and recessive carriers
           | of genetic defects from reproducing whether through execution
           | or restriction does definitively eliminate the defect if such
           | policies were implemented well.
           | 
           | The short period of suffering during the culling has the
           | reward of completely eliminating the targeted genetic
           | diseases.
           | 
           | I find that it is rare to find someone who is able to think
           | rationally about the topic above. A lot of people have to
           | rearrange the logic of potential solutions such that it fits
           | within a moral framework. They cannot disentangle the logic
           | and keep their analysis completely separate from their own
           | ethics.
           | 
           | Executing someone with a genetic defects is logically
           | speaking the most definitive way to stop that genetic defect
           | from spreading. Restriction costs resources and has the
           | potential for failure.
           | 
           | You see what I'm saying? Being completely unbiased is a form
           | of psychopathy. But it does let you see truths others are
           | unable to see. Eugenics targeted at actual known genetic
           | defects in both sufferers and recessive carriers does
           | logically lead to a better outcome then the moral path. If
           | you just let natural selection play out the defect could just
           | stick around causing suffering across many many generations
           | of people.
           | 
           | But this is the extreme example. The extreme example triggers
           | moral reactions which in turn becomes a mirror to your
           | biases.
           | 
           | A more realistic example is: "do I eliminate the jobs of
           | everyone whose livelihood depends on success in the oil
           | industry to stave off the impending catastrophe of global
           | warming?"
        
             | 988747 wrote:
             | Why stop at genetic defects? Just abolish the whole modern
             | medicine: let the sick people die, so only the strongest,
             | most immune survive. Do we really want to live in the world
             | like that?
        
             | Koshkin wrote:
             | > _Being completely unbiased is a form of psychopathy._
             | 
             | Nice. On the other hand, we must remember that biases can
             | be, and are, exploited: "Patriotism is the last refuge of
             | the scoundrel."
        
             | bena wrote:
             | Yeah, I like to remind people we do eugenics all the time.
             | With plants and animals. We don't call it that because we
             | often feel that humans are a different class of life and we
             | need special words to describe things we do to ourselves.
             | 
             | But breeding a dachshund is eugenics. You are selecting for
             | desired traits and not allowing undesirable dogs to breed.
             | 
             | Like, it technically works.
             | 
             | We don't do it because it also means violating people's
             | privacy and autonomy. And that's just wrong. The mechanisms
             | are inhumane.
        
               | kilgnad wrote:
               | Here's the thing. The logic for eugenics is actually MORE
               | humane then letting it go. Do you have generations of
               | people suffering from genetic defects or do you do one
               | execution and save thousands from suffering?
               | 
               | We choose the former not because of logic, but because
               | our moral instincts are evolved to be reactionary rather
               | then analytical. We only feel it's wrong, but in
               | actuality it is not consistent.
               | 
               | It's the same biases that cause us to view Thanos as the
               | villain in Avengers. Without getting too pedantic, in a
               | way, he's actually right.
        
               | bena wrote:
               | It's not entirely that you have to execute people. It's
               | that you have to restrict the rights of people to have
               | sex with who they want. And you have to force others to
               | give up their genetic material to produce offspring they
               | may not want to.
               | 
               | There's also the issue of the definition of "suffering".
               | Once you control for the traits people mostly agree are
               | detrimental, where do we stop? Do we control for height?
               | Intelligence? Decreased propensity for certain behaviors?
               | Where's the line?
               | 
               | And no, Thanos was not right. Thanos was written by a
               | fucking moron. It took Earth about 50 years to go from 4
               | billion people to 8 billion. So, in the most generous
               | interpretation of his action, he gave the universe 50
               | more years. Next, it's kind of implied that it was all
               | life, including animals. You know, livestock. And then
               | you also have the matter of plant life. If that was or
               | was not affected. Regardless, cutting out half of all
               | life also cuts roughly half of your resources as well. It
               | also ignores that at 4 billion people, we were doing a
               | fucking bang up job of thrashing the environment still.
               | And it ignores the fact that there's just a better
               | answer, make more stuff. Or change reality so that far
               | fewer resources are consumed through certain actions.
               | Make energy free. Make it so people don't need to eat.
               | Everything is on the fucking table. The Infinity Stones
               | are essentially limitless. His justification in the films
               | just do not hold up. Both in reasoning and execution. At
               | least in the comic he was doing it to get laid. As base
               | as that is, it's a reason with no issues.
        
               | kilgnad wrote:
               | See. Rationalization. Bias. Whether it's right or it's
               | wrong. You spend an inordinate amount of effort trying to
               | twist the logic to fit your definition of morality.
               | 
               | You aren't trying to put together a conclusion from
               | facts. You're trying to put together the facts to fit
               | your conclusion. Don't you find it convenient that
               | everything tends to have a clear moral solution?
               | 
               | In the universe described by the movie, Thanos is right,
               | the heros fought him Despite them knowing he's right. The
               | pedantic details of Thanos being right in reality is not
               | what I'm referring to here, I'm referring to Hollywood
               | Movie logic and how both the audience and the characters
               | went along with it.
               | 
               | >There's also the issue of the definition of "suffering".
               | Once you control for the traits people mostly agree are
               | detrimental, where do we stop? Do we control for height?
               | Intelligence? Decreased propensity for certain behaviors?
               | Where's the line?'
               | 
               | That is off topic. The point is eugenics for diseases
               | with clear detriment to humanity. It's like I asked you
               | "Should I eat a hot dog." and you're like "What about a
               | pizza, what about 2 hot dogs? What about scarfing down
               | your throat all the food in the entire restaurant? Where
               | is the line??"
        
               | gilleain wrote:
               | No, there are (at least) two explanations for Thanos'
               | solution to the problem of resource constraints and
               | overcrowding.
               | 
               | In-universe, I understand (from the youtube videos
               | 'Comics Explained :) ) that Thanos is in love with
               | Mistress Death, so naturally he favours a solution that
               | kills a lot of organisms.
               | 
               | Out-of-universe the writers needed a villain. So they had
               | Thanos do something evil. As the other poster pointed
               | out, it was also a fairly dumb solution, given
               | exponential growth.
               | 
               | Either way, he has a glove with the literal power of the
               | universe and he chooses a comically evil way to fix it.
               | Obviously as it is a comic book.
               | 
               | The important point is that thinking the Thanos
               | 'solution' is somehow rational is based on an arbitrary
               | choice of what is important - life, freedom, nature,
               | order, etc.
        
             | nanomonkey wrote:
             | Sadly, the devil is in the details of determining whether
             | something is a genetic defect, or an adaptation to an
             | environment just around the corner. Would you get rid of
             | cycle cell anemia even though it gives an advantage towards
             | Malaria? Genetic variability tends to be beneficial in the
             | long run. This can easily be seen with dog breeding, where
             | the hybrid crosses have more vigor than the "true breeds".
             | 
             | In the end, one would be justifying a decision based on a
             | bias.
        
               | kilgnad wrote:
               | That's rationalization. There are definitely defects that
               | do not have any trade off. It is bias in itself to think
               | that every genetic trait has a balanced positive and
               | negative.
               | 
               | It's the apple and oranges argument people often use with
               | programming languages. They think every programming
               | language is just a tool in a tool box, good for one thing
               | bad for another. They preclude the possibility that
               | certain programming languages can be good for almost
               | everything or that other ones can be complete crap for
               | just about all applications. There is no logical
               | reasoning that precludes either of the aforementioned
               | languages to exist. It's illogical and it's biased to
               | think everything is fair and balanced.
               | 
               | Logically speaking, executing the people with clearly
               | defective traits is overall beneficial to society.
               | There's no other way to reason around this. You can try
               | but it'd be a biased endeavor as your specifically
               | searching for reasoning to counter mine for the sake of
               | creating the contradiction itself.
        
           | Koshkin wrote:
           | > _rationalize the opposing viewpoints_
           | 
           | Putting oneself in the other's place is the least one can do.
           | But in politics, for example, all you will find is that
           | there's no right or wrong but rather opposing _interests_ (of
           | which there may be more then two). Then all you can do is
           | start to appeal to the _irrational_ - faith (religion), hope
           | (expectations), love (e.g. patriotism), etc.
        
             | jvanderbot wrote:
             | Thats kind of the point. It takes the wind out of my sails
             | when I realize there isn't any sense of "right" or "wrong"
             | that can be agreed upon. Instead, you have to talk about
             | values, and why one approach favors one value over the
             | other. At that point, you're not talking to a heretic, but
             | a human being with a different value system, which is often
             | not far from yours.
        
           | csours wrote:
           | > I try to fully rationalize the opposing viewpoints.
           | 
           | Edit: "Both Sides"-ing an issue can be dangerous. Many times,
           | there is actual harm on one side, and mere discomfort on the
           | other. You may not be describing "both sides"-ing; but this
           | could be read that way.
           | 
           | I would say it as "identify the deeply held beliefs that got
           | this person to their viewpoint"
           | 
           | Previous statement:
           | 
           | This can be dangerous, depending on how it is done. I would
           | say it as "identify the deeply held beliefs that got this
           | person to their viewpoint"
        
             | jvanderbot wrote:
             | I don't think being able to hold opposing viewpoints in my
             | head is ever dangerous. Understanding the chain of logic
             | that leads from, for example, some religious fundamentalism
             | to misogyny does not imply I'm going to keep my girls out
             | of school, it just means I get why they have that fucked up
             | opinion: they grew up around it, it feels natural to them,
             | their elders support it with scripture so it becomes
             | sacred, etc etc.
             | 
             | It just helps understand how deep it goes, and therefore
             | how challenging it might be to persuade someone out of it.
             | It doesn't change my own beliefs on the matter.
        
             | lumb63 wrote:
             | To the contrary, I think your approach leads to, rather
             | than understanding, identifying. In my opinion, it can be a
             | little degrading to have one's system of beliefs broken
             | down to "this person believes X therefore Y"; there is
             | probably a lot more going on in some people's minds.
             | 
             | The best approach is probably somewhere in the middle. I
             | can think of instances in people i know where they have
             | deeply held beliefs that they don't challenge that lead
             | them to all sorts of conclusions. But I also know people
             | who have deliberated on topics in depth to reach the
             | conclusions they have. That is not to say that they are
             | without bias, but their viewpoints are consequences of more
             | than just deeply held beliefs.
        
               | jvanderbot wrote:
               | Right. My method for discriminating between core values
               | and rational deliberation is to walk myself through their
               | decision tree. Usually I come up with questions to ask
               | that make people uncomfortable and the Convo ends.
        
               | lumb63 wrote:
               | Do you have any concrete examples of this? I'm curious.
        
         | SamoyedFurFluff wrote:
         | I would say isn't it useful to simply acknowledge you can be
         | deeply flawed all the time and your experiences of reality will
         | always be slanted with your subjective opinions on how society
         | works, that everyone else is also doing the same thing, and
         | continue onwards anyways? There's no way to escape our own
         | imperfections. We have some tools to help us mitigate them, but
         | they will always be there.
        
           | brookst wrote:
           | That seems fairly defeatist. I've gotten better at some
           | things I used to be terrible at, and it took work to do so.
           | And I'm happier for it, while still being plenty imperfect.
        
             | SamoyedFurFluff wrote:
             | I never said to stop working at it. I'm merely pointing out
             | that the knowledge that one is a personally unsolveably
             | flawed human being doesn't have to cause uneasiness.
        
               | brookst wrote:
               | Then apologies for misunderstanding your point!
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | evv555 wrote:
         | >How does members of the HN crowd try to combat this?
         | 
         | I think what can be lost in these conversations is the
         | differentiation of a cognitive capacity and the drives to use
         | that capacity. What are the conditions that have lead to your
         | drive for empathic perspective taking? What are these
         | conditions and are these conditions scalable to the world at
         | large?
        
         | bheadmaster wrote:
         | Knowledge itself is a bias against things you don't know.
        
           | bugbuddy wrote:
           | This is not what bias means.
        
             | brookst wrote:
             | How about my bias against being electrocuted?
        
               | Koshkin wrote:
               | You are entitled to have your own opinion on this.
        
             | bheadmaster wrote:
             | Thanks for informing me that my understanding of the word
             | differs from yours. Unfortunately, that information on its
             | own is not very useful to me.
             | 
             | Would you care to also tell me your understanding of the
             | word, so I can figure out whether I need to change my
             | understanding or not?
        
         | csours wrote:
         | The human mind appears to have evolved in a tribal system, and
         | it appears to be predisposed to tribal thinking. As for myself,
         | I try to think of my tribe as all of humanity. You're all my
         | cousins; some of you are knuckleheads, some of you are
         | dangerous, but you're all my cousins.
         | 
         | I like the book "The Righteous Mind". It took me a month to
         | read; it's emotionally difficult, not intellectually difficult.
         | You can't blame people for their gender or skin tone; you also
         | can't blame them for how they were raised - people pick up
         | deeply held beliefs as children that are very hard to see or
         | address.
         | 
         | > What I find really scary is that I have hard time
         | understanding if I am just fooling myself or being rational.
         | Because it's always my own mind coming up with explanations, so
         | the actual process looks the same to me.
         | 
         | The mind is a rationalizing system. It makes things you do feel
         | rational. After I left organized religion, I fell in love with
         | rational skepticism. Then I found that most public "skepticism"
         | is just debunking, not gathering evidence for things you should
         | believe in; and that most "rationality" is just post-hoc
         | rationalization of existing beliefs.
        
           | wanderingstan wrote:
           | Seconding the book "The Righteous Mind". Was hard to accept
           | the point that landed against "my" usual political side, but
           | his point are valid, and only more applicable since it was
           | published ten (?) years ago.
        
             | 8f2ab37a-ed6c wrote:
             | Excellent book, highly recommended as well.
        
           | maCDzP wrote:
           | Hehe, I like the thought of having and being cousin
           | knucklehead.
           | 
           | I'll have to check out the book you recommended. Speaking of
           | righteousness, I have noticed in myself that it's a very
           | addictive feeling. I get off on it. I don't think that's a
           | good thing though.
        
           | codethief wrote:
           | > The human mind appears to have evolved in a tribal system,
           | and it appears to be predisposed to tribal thinking.
           | 
           | +1
           | 
           | I learned about this was when someone posted this article on
           | HN some years ago:
           | 
           | https://web.archive.org/web/20200808051003/https://nautil.us.
           | ..
        
         | IIAOPSW wrote:
         | how do you know if its all a dream? Because the top doesn't
         | stop spinning.
         | 
         | You need a top for testing rationality. Here's a nearly
         | definitional one: you're being rationale when your explanation
         | convinces people other than just you.
        
           | robgibbons wrote:
           | Being convincing does not equal rational. There are many
           | logical fallacies that are convincing on the surface but
           | don't stand up to rational scrutiny.
        
         | kilgnad wrote:
         | People on hackernews especially suffer from this because a lot
         | of programmers tie their identity to being smart. Its the worst
         | place to ask for advice against this because the people
         | answering you are likely the most confidently biased people.
         | 
         | The happier and more confident someone is the more biased they
         | tend to be.
         | 
         | The less confident someone is the less biased they tend to be.
         | 
         | Because you use the word "scared" I'm thinking you're not a
         | confident person and therefore you're highly highly unbiased.
         | 
         | As a human, to live a happy life, we are evolved to be more
         | biased then not. It is the cruel irony in life that your quest
         | to seek the unbiased truth leads to less happiness.
         | 
         | I'm too lazy to cite this but there is actual research showing
         | this. People who lie to themselves tend to be happier and more
         | successful and people who are more honest with themselves...
         | Tend to suffer from depression.
         | 
         | If you don't believe a word I say, then great, you're doing
         | well. And you're really smart! Leave me a snappy reply showing
         | how you disagree then go on and live your life.
         | 
         | If you agree with this post, then I'm sorry.
        
           | Koshkin wrote:
           | > _programmers tie their identity to being smart_
           | 
           | And not just programmers themselves: more than once I have
           | heard a manager say, Let's ask a programmer, they are smart!
        
       | tootie wrote:
       | My layman observation was always that being intelligent and being
       | rational are two completely different things. It's how you get
       | people who have high technical achievement but still hold on to
       | odd beliefs or get sucked into conspiracies.
        
       | xyzelement wrote:
       | I observe something like this in the way people react to what's
       | going on in the news.
       | 
       | Example: compared to most people, I am "better" positioned to
       | understand what's going on in Ukraine - my dad and both inlaws
       | are from there and speak the language. I grew up in former USSR
       | and speak fluent Russian so I can also watch and read things
       | closer to the source.
       | 
       | And yet, I don't claim to understand anything that's going on in
       | Ukraine because ~none~ of the information I see can be considered
       | unbiased. So I can chose to believe one set but not the other set
       | of data or I can say "I am not equipped to understand this."
       | 
       | Meanwhile, tons of people who are objectively less equipped to
       | suss out the situation, don't feel this hesitation to have an
       | opinion. Intellectually, if you ask them 'does propaganda exist,
       | and is it amped up in a war situation' they will say 'of course,
       | every time' and then they'll go and believe what they read (be in
       | in a Western or Russian source, doesn't matter.)
       | 
       | This is not a complaint, it's actually something quite empowering
       | to understand.
        
         | FrontierPsych wrote:
         | "Truth is the first casualty of war" goes the saying.
        
         | im3w1l wrote:
         | In the end there is an imperative to act*. Even if we don't
         | understand as well as we'd like, we don't get to just shrug and
         | say "I dunno". We have to go with our best guess (perhaps
         | hedging a bit against other possibilities) and hope for the
         | best. Yes we might be misled by propaganda. Still we must act.
         | 
         | * I'm defining act broadly here as any kind of policy choice.
         | Sending humanitarian aid, or not sending it. Sending military
         | aid or not sending it. Voicing our support, or not voicing our
         | support. Encouraging surrender, or not encouraging surrender.
        
         | pharrington wrote:
         | Are you saying that the information about Russia's war is
         | _unduly_ biased? I ask because all communication is biased,
         | obviously to very different degrees, and for very different
         | reasons.
         | 
         | I try to be as open and honest as possible about my biases, and
         | constantly reexamine my current and past beliefs.
        
           | bawolff wrote:
           | It should go without saying that any coverage of a war is
           | going to be extremely biased, doubly so from places that are
           | participating in it (including usa, because they clearly have
           | a strong geopolitical interest in the outcome)
           | 
           | That is just how war works.
        
           | s1artibartfast wrote:
           | What do you mean by _unduly_ biased.
           | 
           | Bias, at least for me, means erroneous or misleading.
           | 
           | I think all people are biased and imperfect, but that doesn't
           | mean that all communication is biased. Unbiased communication
           | takes a lot more work, but isn't impossible.
        
             | pharrington wrote:
             | Our definitions of bias in this context seem, mine aligns
             | with the first Merriam Webster definition -
             | 1 a : an inclination of temperament or outlook
             | especially : a personal and sometimes unreasoned judgment :
             | prejudice       b : an instance of such prejudice
             | 
             | I consider undue bias to basically be deliberate deception
             | about the information itself or the biases of the source.
             | 
             | This is important because, as another commenter in this
             | thread said, we always have an imperative to act amid
             | imperfect information.
             | 
             | edit: Obviously you can choose to not act, but inaction
             | seems like the opposite of empowerment to me.
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | When you talk about bias as an adjective, you can have a
               | biased person or biased communication . Humans are vastly
               | complex so you can't have unbiased humans without
               | omniscience.
               | 
               | Language and data however are different. You can have
               | unbiased communication and data.
               | 
               | The statement 2 + 2 = 4 in the base 10 number system is
               | unbiased.
               | 
               | To say unbiased language does not exist is saying that
               | truth does not exist.
        
               | pharrington wrote:
               | I'll clarify myself - all communication of imperfect
               | knowledge is biased. I'm afraid we're falling into a
               | overly pedantic semantic quibble though.
               | 
               | The context we're talking about is how much we can
               | understand about a war. I understand that Russia invaded
               | Ukraine, and that nothing Ukraine's done even begins
               | justifies a full on, bloody invasion.
        
           | faeriechangling wrote:
           | Yeah it's a war, there isn't much more bias information
           | you're going to see. I looked into half the stories Google
           | promoted me when I did a random search about an Ukraine topic
           | and it was basically all US MSM which cited "experts" that
           | were former US intelligence. This also held true for Bing
           | because appearantly US MSM is the place to get unbiased
           | reputable information about the war in Ukraine (???)
           | 
           | The only place I could get a different view was Yandex who
           | rigged their search results to show a bunch of small anti-US
           | bloggers since the Ruskies run Yandex. Also RT right near the
           | top.
           | 
           | So I have to choose between a bunch of shills the US and it's
           | MSM puppets promoted, or a bunch of shills the Russians
           | promoted plus some bloggers who would believe the US is
           | responsible for cancer and heart disease.
           | 
           | None of these search engines promote sources which could be
           | seen as relatively neutral like Al Jazeera or Chinese news or
           | whatever. I never see people promote random substacks of
           | independent media. Almost everything I read about this war is
           | planted by government shills of one sort or another that are
           | boosting search results and so on. I was around for the Iraq
           | war and yeah that war made it incredibly obvious how
           | THROUGHLY untrustworthy the mainstream media is regarding war
           | reporting and their love of killing the innocent with lies.
           | I've fallen for propaganda before because it's impossible not
           | to because there's such a freaking torrent of it.
        
             | loudmax wrote:
             | None of this is strictly incorrect, but it's a mistake to
             | conclude that since all sides are biased the truth is
             | unknowable and you might as well throw up your hands and
             | retreat entirely. In fact, the goal of disinformation isn't
             | necessarily to make you believe things that are wrong, the
             | goal is to create enough confusion to make you believe that
             | you simply can't know what's going on.
             | 
             | If you assign equal weight to NASA and flat earth websites
             | you might as well conclude that apparently there is
             | controversy among so-called "experts", so who knows, maybe
             | the earth is round and maybe it isn't. You can think this
             | way, but it's clearly bullshit. While NASA isn't magic and
             | they have made mistakes and have lost spacecraft, their
             | level of credibility isn't equal to flat-earthers.
             | 
             | The governments of the United States (and the European and
             | Asian democracies) and Russia both have agendas and both
             | push narratives they want you to believe. This is true. But
             | if you think the democratic and totalitarian governments
             | are _equally_ trustworthy you 're deluding yourself.
        
             | enkid wrote:
             | But no matter the bias, you can get some facts that should
             | allow you to make some judgements like Russia invaded
             | Ukraine to "defend" breakaway republics it propped up
             | itself by trying to blockade Ukraine's two largest cities.
             | Russia is the aggressor and is shooting rockets at
             | civilians and doing generally bad stuff like torturing
             | people. That is "biased" but it's biased toward truth.
             | Seeing anything anti-Russian as a government shill is going
             | to lead you to seeing conspiracy theories everywhere
             | because Russia legitimately is the bad guy here.
        
               | leereeves wrote:
               | It's entirely possible for both sides of a war to be the
               | bad guys.
               | 
               | I don't know how many, if any, of the charges that have
               | been levied against Ukraine are true, but given the
               | history of the US, we should know better than to assume
               | that we are on the right side, or that we are being told
               | the whole truth.
               | 
               | And we obviously aren't being told the real reason for
               | the war. If torturing people, invading another country,
               | and firing missiles at civilians were sufficient reason
               | to oppose another country, we wouldn't support the
               | Saudis.
        
               | bawolff wrote:
               | > I don't know how many, if any, of the charges that have
               | been levied against Ukraine are true,
               | 
               | In terms of valid reasons to go to war, i dont think any
               | of the reasons russia provided really make sense, even if
               | you consider the other side extremely biased.
               | 
               | Just because both sides are very biased, does not mean
               | you can't critically evaluate the arguments. Bias means
               | you should be cautious not discard all reasoning.
               | 
               | > And we obviously aren't being told the real reason for
               | the war. If torturing people, invading another country,
               | and firing missiles at civilians were sufficient reason
               | to oppose another country, we wouldn't support the
               | Saudis.
               | 
               | Moral justification for wars always differ from
               | geopolitical reasons. That is true for literally every
               | war ever. In this case its pretty obvious that its a
               | fight over what russia's sphere of influence should be
               | along with various strategic resources in ukraine (oil,
               | port access). Letting russia invade a country for
               | essentially deciding to have closer ties to the west, is
               | a terrible precedent for the west, because other
               | countries will see that and be less likely to pursue
               | ties. So its not really a surprise they got involved.
        
               | enkid wrote:
               | Why are you trying to change the subject from Russia
               | aggression to US aggression? Something's aren't about the
               | US, and viewing this war in that lens completely takes
               | agency away from Ukraine and Russia. Instead, let's talk
               | about Russia and Ukraine. Russia has nuclear weapons and
               | promised to guarantee Ukraine's borders in exchange for
               | them giving up theirs. Instead, Russia invaded and took
               | territory from them in 2014. When that wasn't enough,
               | they did it again a year ago. Before 2014, Ukraine barely
               | had a military and posed no threat to anyone. What
               | possible reason could Russia have to invade Ukraine that
               | would justify this?
        
               | bawolff wrote:
               | Usa is a super power. Pretty much every geopolitical
               | conflict is going to have at least something to do with
               | usa. That is kind of implicit in the definition of super
               | power.
        
               | enkid wrote:
               | "Having something to do with" doesn't mean explains, and
               | only talking about the US still takes all agency away
               | from other actors.
        
           | georgeburdell wrote:
           | I haven't been following the news lately but early on in the
           | war it was obvious to me that the U.S. media was at least
           | minimizing reports of Ukranian casualties, and possibly
           | inflating those of Russia. This is "expected" since we are
           | aligned with the former
        
         | ag315 wrote:
         | This is a really excellent point, both in general and vis a vis
         | the conflict in Ukraine. Something I see happening often is
         | that some people are quick to confuse expertise-as-credential
         | with expertise-as-substance, or to assume that anyone who has
         | above average knowledge of some relevant subject area that
         | relates to some aspect of the war is immune to emotionally
         | biased interpretations.
        
         | kulahan wrote:
         | This was recently on display with the Ghost of Kyiv killing
         | over 850,000 enemy platoons with a single bullet. I'm sure it
         | was born out of some interesting story - maybe a rookie had a
         | good dogfight or something, but BOY did that story grow and
         | grow.
         | 
         | My only question is: how much propaganda came from states, vs.
         | people taking an idea and running with it because it's a
         | narrative they want to hear?
        
           | 8f2ab37a-ed6c wrote:
           | Or the rumors of mobile cremation chambers to incinerate
           | corpses of crimes against humanity victims which circulated
           | in the first few weeks, including copious photos, which all
           | turned out to be some random heavy equipment.
        
             | 8f2ab37a-ed6c wrote:
             | Apparently there's even a wikipedia article on this, TIL: h
             | ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_usage_of_mobile_cremat
             | ...
        
         | marsten wrote:
         | You only realize how uninformed the media is when it covers
         | something you know very well. I experienced this in grad school
         | when Newsweek magazine profiled some work my lab was doing
         | (physics), and they made a lot of simple mistakes we could've
         | easily corrected.
        
           | oofnik wrote:
           | This is called the Gell-Mann amnesia effect:
           | https://www.epsilontheory.com/gell-mann-amnesia/
        
           | [deleted]
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2023-02-20 23:01 UTC)