[HN Gopher] Was the $5B that VCs plugged into escooters worth it?
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       Was the $5B that VCs plugged into escooters worth it?
        
       Author : marban
       Score  : 10 points
       Date   : 2023-02-19 18:12 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
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       | heavyset_go wrote:
       | $5B and the best they could do was dump piles of scooters on the
       | street and make people pay to use them via an app.
        
         | brianwawok wrote:
         | And pay other people to go charge them.
        
       | nasmorn wrote:
       | It is just really expensive to ride. I use it sometimes where
       | there are no good public transport options and it is like half a
       | cab fare. I can't see them maintain a market if they increase
       | prices. Maybe if we had longer lasting batteries they could drop
       | the prices since they would not need to be charged so often. But
       | as it stands it is either a curiosity or replacing something
       | already expensive like a taxi for a small subset of taxi rides.
        
         | SilverBirch wrote:
         | I don't think it's just the batteries, the whole economic model
         | makes no sense. First, they're expensive - they need to be
         | built for commercial use, so they're $500+ each. Second, demand
         | is massively inefificent, a hundred thousand people want to
         | travel from the train station to their office in the morning,
         | and then back in the evening. Either you pay someone to keep
         | riding the scooters back to the train station in the morning
         | during commuting hours, or you accept that their utilization is
         | going to be woeful. Thirdly, the MTBBTITR (Mean Time Between
         | Being Thrown in The River) is 2 days, so you end up replacing
         | your entire inventory every 2 days.
         | 
         | So, we need to hire a full time worker per scooter to return it
         | to where it's needed constantly, we need to replace the scooter
         | every 2 days, and they're $500 each. So it costs the company
         | about $300 a day to run 1 scooter, so they need to charge about
         | $100 per journey. Unsurprisingly, the demand is highly elastic.
         | 
         | The numbers are a bit facetious, but you get my point.
        
         | flangola7 wrote:
         | I read that batteries can last for dozens of miles.
        
       | rpep wrote:
       | Here in the U.K. scooters are only legal in specific trial areas
       | and when hired from a company (normally one per city), which vets
       | that the hirer has a driving license, and this ensures the person
       | is riding them with insurance. But there are lots of people using
       | privately owned e-scooters illegally - I live not far outside a
       | trial area and regularly see people on them. This is despite a
       | risk of large fines or even losing your driving license (most
       | people need 12 penalty points to be banned from driving and being
       | caught on one of these is 6 points).
       | 
       | I would be interested to see how profitable these startups are in
       | the face of competition in this direction, because it looks like
       | here there'll be a liberalisation of the rules at some point. For
       | e.g. I know a couple of people who commute on them, but it would
       | seem to me to make sense for them to just buy one and charge it
       | at home/work if it was legal.
        
         | rjh29 wrote:
         | In Bristol a provisonal driving license is enough, and anyone
         | can get those. I think that's more about providing ID than
         | proving that you can drive.
        
       | abudabi123 wrote:
       | Are there weights on the business logic for the decision and how
       | near/far have outcomes compared to expectations? Apparently Usain
       | Bolts's investing in emerging tech left him empty handed.
        
       | strangattractor wrote:
       | To the people manufacturing escooters almost certainly.
        
       | AtlasBarfed wrote:
       | Looking at the roadmaps for the core component (batteries) they
       | definitely jumped the gun.
       | 
       | Sodium Ion batteries should produce dirt cheap scooters that will
       | probably be 1/3 the cost of whatever they were using back when
       | they invested.
       | 
       | And "sharing" is kind of stupid. If you own your escooter, the
       | battery will probably be removable (for easy recharging) and you
       | just lock up the shell. Sharing is basically only good for
       | tourism. E-bike sharing? It is bigger/heavier, that does make
       | slightly more sense.
       | 
       | I don't think their investment jumpstarted some fundamental
       | movement either, maybe it helped nudge it a few years earlier,
       | but ebikes/escooters are simply an inevitability of cheap dense
       | batteries.
        
         | dilyevsky wrote:
         | Afaik Taiwan has a network of swappable batteries for their
         | (road) scooters so you can plug a fresh pack and go. Seems way
         | more sensible than that SV shared scooter nonsense.
         | 
         | Edit: https://www.gogoro.com/
        
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