[HN Gopher] Blue Origin manufactured solar cell prototype from l...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Blue Origin manufactured solar cell prototype from lunar regolith
       simulants
        
       Author : LLcolD
       Score  : 199 points
       Date   : 2023-02-14 14:46 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.blueorigin.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.blueorigin.com)
        
       | alexfromapex wrote:
       | Are they accounting for the oxygen input needed for the burning
       | process?
        
         | FourHand451 wrote:
         | >our reactor produces iron, silicon, and aluminum through
         | molten regolith electrolysis, in which an electrical current
         | separates those elements from the oxygen to which they are
         | bound. Oxygen for propulsion and life support is a byproduct.
         | 
         | It sounds like there isn't oxygen input required.
        
         | waitwhatuh wrote:
         | What burning process? There is heating without burning in this
         | process (and in fact, most of the things being melted are
         | oxides and the energy is used to pull oxygen _off_ of the iron
         | and silicon.)
         | 
         | It's electrical heating, not coal fire heating, which requires
         | no oxygen.
        
         | johntb86 wrote:
         | They're essentially unburning these materials - they're bound
         | to oxygen when in the mineral, and they need to separate that
         | out.
        
       | jasonlotito wrote:
       | So, if this topic interests you, and you want to read a couple
       | books related to it, I highly recommend Delta-V and then Critical
       | Mass by Daniel Suarez. Both are sci-fi books, and deal with
       | precisely this thing.
        
       | politician wrote:
       | They control for a lot of factors except, apparently, for
       | gravity. It would be awesome if they scaled their foundry down to
       | the size of a satellite and tested it in orbit.
        
         | borjah wrote:
         | actually is 1/6th gravity, because you are going to produce it
         | on the moon. I don't know how long the process is but maybe a
         | vomit comet with a different parabola profile to imitate the
         | moon gravity could do the trick.
        
           | politician wrote:
           | Yeah, I was thinking that they could launch into a
           | microgravity environment and approximate the Moon's gravity
           | by spinning the sat.
        
       | kibwen wrote:
       | This is an interesting development, although note that a full
       | day-night cycle on the moon is 29 Earth-days long. This means
       | that unless you want to have enough batteries to last two whole
       | weeks, you're going to be limited to putting your solar-powered
       | outpost in the few places with near-constant access to light;
       | basically the high bits of craters near the poles.
        
         | beakergordon wrote:
         | On this note, does anyone know the tentative plan for the
         | upcoming Artemis missions? Looks like they're slated for 30
         | days, but at least a few of those will probably be spent in
         | transfer orbits. It makes me wonder if that timeline is
         | configured to line up to an exact day-only time window on the
         | surface.
        
       | mariusseufzer wrote:
       | "Our proprietary transport subsystem [...]" That's where I
       | stopped reading.
        
         | ted_dunning wrote:
         | You should have read more carefully.
         | 
         | They are talking about transport of molten regolith. Not
         | rockets.
        
       | mlindner wrote:
       | As long as they dont hamstring themselves by demanding they
       | launch on only their own launch vehicles, this has some
       | possibility. Better that they spin it out into a separate company
       | that would give them the freedom of being launch provider
       | agnostic.
        
         | malfist wrote:
         | I wouldn't be surprised if they pivot, but the new glenn does
         | look promising. Not as promising as starship, but starship's
         | numbers are still Elon numbers, which aren't to be trusted
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | > which aren't to be trusted
           | 
           | Its always funny when people say that.
           | 
           | Musk has been the longest serving CEO in both the Space and
           | the Automotive industry. With both companies having an almost
           | absurdly good track record of execution.
           | 
           | And yet somehow it isn't trust worthy? Based on what?
           | Comments on twitter?
        
             | waitwhatuh wrote:
             | > With both companies having an almost absurdly good track
             | record of execution.
             | 
             | Musk has consistently produced the wrong numbers. Some
             | examples (and there are many, many more):
             | 
             | Number of teslas in 2018? Musk: 500k Actual: 35K
             | 
             | Tesla base price objective, 2016: Musk $35k Actual: Much
             | more
             | 
             | Self Driving Cross Country Trip: Musk: in 2017 Actual: NaN
             | 
             | Financing Rounds: Musk (2011) "We will never need another
             | financing round" Actual: there were many more
             | 
             | Supercharging cost: Musk (2013) "Always free" Actual:
             | Definitely not free
             | 
             | Tesla Semis Production Line Date: Musk: "2019" Actual: Not
             | yet happened
             | 
             | Gigafactory placement: Musk (2017) "Two to four more"
             | Actual: Only one operational
             | 
             | Hyperloop NY-Phil-Balt-DC: Musk (2017) "I have verbal
             | approval, 29 minutes NY-DC" Actual: This appears to be made
             | up
             | 
             | Mars Missions: Musk: "Every launch window from 2024 onward"
             | Actual: TBD, _maybe_ 2029?
             | 
             | Neurallink: Musk: "Human trials in 2021" Actual: "Lots of
             | dead monkeys"
             | 
             | Covid-19 Ventilators: Musk "Our factories will produce
             | them" Actual: Musk sent 1,000 cpap machines
             | 
             | Updated Tesla Roadster: Musk: "It exists!" Actual: "It
             | doesn't"
             | 
             | There are so, so _so_ many more of these. There 's nothing
             | remotely close to an "absurdly good track record". SpaceX
             | is doing well because of Shotwell, not Musk, and Tesla has
             | been plagued with build quality and recall issues from day
             | 1. (To say nothing of absurd repair costs and issues with
             | FSD.)
        
               | mlindner wrote:
               | Every headline here is missing the nuance and
               | misdescribing the comments out of context. Or removing
               | the caveats that he himself put on the comment. When
               | people preface things with "I think", or "probably" or
               | "possibly" or "good chance" you can't just suddenly turn
               | it around and say they were predicting the future with a
               | crystal ball. This happens so much with Elon's comments
               | it's frankly extremely tiring.
               | 
               | And what, you created a brand new account just to post
               | this nonsense again? I've seen this before.
        
               | sjsdaiuasgdia wrote:
               | Quite a few of these happened in the context of earnings
               | calls or other communications to investors. If the guy in
               | charge of these companies keeps making statements about
               | their future performance and then they repeatedly miss
               | the mark, that's a valid thing to criticize and an "I
               | think" prefix doesn't absolve him.
        
               | waitwhatuh wrote:
               | It's one thing to be off by, say, 5%. It's another thing
               | to be years or two orders of magnitude off. I'm not
               | expecting Musk to be perfect, I'm expecting him to be
               | reasonably close with his predictions.
               | 
               | And many, _many_ of Tesla 's predictions aren't
               | predictions. In 2014, Tesla promised full self driving on
               | cars _and took money for it_. Those cars today will never
               | have it (despite paying for it), and it 's been nearly a
               | decade with FSD still an indeterminate period away.
               | 
               | And yeah, new account. That's how I interact with HN --
               | create an account, keep it until it gets some amount of
               | karma (usually 500-1000) decide it's too much of a drain
               | to try and be grounded here, and delete the account.
               | Inevitably, someone comes along and makes a breathy and
               | incredible claim like "tesla is an absolute success" and
               | I feel like I need to come in and provide just a little
               | bit of "Hey, so, the facts don't exactly line up
               | there..." To be clear, I don't create anti-tesla
               | accounts, and this isn't an alt for another existing
               | account, I just don't like having a long term account
               | here.
        
             | hectorlorenzo wrote:
             | > Comments on twitter?
             | 
             | Yes. Mostly his.
        
             | malfist wrote:
             | Before you pull out the pitchforks, look at what I said. I
             | said his numbers weren't to be trusted. Elon has a well
             | documented track record of saying X will be ready by Y date
             | and cost Z amount, and all those numbers be wrong.
             | 
             | From the very first model 3, to full self drive, to
             | cybertruck, to the boring company, to the starship itself.
             | All of those were/are later than the dates that he gave,
             | and cost more (for the ones that are for sale) than he said
             | they'd cost. He was saying the orbital launch for starship
             | was weeks away more than a year ago. It's still not
             | happened.
             | 
             | Elon makes his own propaganda
        
               | bpodgursky wrote:
               | Sure, you're not wrong on general principle but Starship
               | is literally going to attempt an orbital launch in a
               | couple weeks (they just did a full test fire), and we
               | don't need to take anyone's promises to check the
               | numbers.
               | 
               | If it succeeds, New Glenn is going to be superfluous and
               | starting at a massive timing disadvantage.
        
           | wongarsu wrote:
           | Starship numbers constantly change based on what works in
           | tests, how the engines evolve as their production scales up
           | and the design gets simplified, etc. New Glenn is still
           | lacking all these insights. Both projects are delayed, but if
           | I had to bet which one is going to deliver closer to the
           | currently promised performance and launch date I'd bet on the
           | one that has scaled up prototype production and has performed
           | test launches.
        
           | gene-h wrote:
           | Blue Origin might already be pivoting. They recently acquired
           | Honeybee robotics, a company which is focused on making
           | robots for space and other worlds[0]. Honeybee Robotics has
           | also done extensive work on In-Situ Resource
           | Utilization(ISRU), aka, living off the land.
           | [0]https://www.honeybeerobotics.com/news-events/honeybee-
           | roboti...
        
           | skykooler wrote:
           | New Glenn looks promising on paper, but seven years later we
           | haven't seen any hardware and the first launch is perpetually
           | "next year". In that time, Starship has been redesigned
           | twice, done flight and landing tests, and is preparing for a
           | full orbital test, and even the perpetually-delayed SLS has
           | flown once.
        
             | ohitsdom wrote:
             | > preparing for a full orbital test
             | 
             | Rocket delays are inevitable. But since you mentioned New
             | Glenn's perpetual delays, let's also be fair and note that
             | Starship's orbital test has been teased by Elon for quite
             | awhile now [0]. I happen to think an April/May launch is
             | possible, but we'll see. And also good to note that this is
             | still very much a "pathfinder" vehicle, in SpaceX's style
             | of iterative design & test. So not at all the same as
             | whenever New Glenn's first launch will be.
             | 
             | [0] https://twitter.com/ESGhound/status/1622680306342891536
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Yeah but New Glenn originally was basically a scaled up
               | Falcon 9, aluminum tanks with first stage reuse. Starship
               | is fully reusable, a much harder problem. New Glenn
               | engine, while staged cycle are not that well optimized
               | and its specs aren't that amazing. Raptor is (probably)
               | the most advanced engine that has ever been fired.
               | 
               | Falcon Heavy beats New Glenn on most things, so New Glenn
               | is more comparable to that generation rocket. New Glenn
               | was sized up because Bezos wanted to have something
               | bigger then Falcon 9.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | The problem with New Glenn is that its basically a
             | 'government rocke't. It exists because Blue Origin is
             | dropping 2 billion $ a year in loses. New Glenn will never
             | even remotely pay back its investment and at best they can
             | maybe fly it with profitable operations.
             | 
             | But until then Blue Origin has basically no actual revenue
             | beyond a very small amount of BE-4 sales.
             | 
             | Are we expecting Bezos just to continue to drop billions of
             | $ into Blue Origin for unlimited amount of time? Because
             | non of the projects they have will ever make this company
             | profitable.
        
               | LarryMullins wrote:
               | > _Are we expecting Bezos just to continue to drop
               | billions of $ into Blue Origin for unlimited amount of
               | time?_
               | 
               | To be fair, he's been shoveling money into this
               | unproductive dumpster fire for more than 20 years
               | already.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Well but for the first 10 years it was not really a real
               | company, more a hobby project.
               | 
               | Then it got bigger and bigger, but only in the mid 2010s
               | did the company seriously start to grow.
               | 
               | He was dropping 1 billion per year towards the end of
               | 2010s but the company has been ramping up even more over
               | the last 3-5 years.
               | 
               | By now the HR cost alone are probably going towards 2
               | billion $ a year, they are not so much smaller then
               | SpaceX with no revenue.
        
           | meepmorp wrote:
           | Musk and SpaceX parting ways would be great, imo.
        
             | TaylorAlexander wrote:
             | Agree. Shotwell at the helm would be fantastic.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Based on what? Do you just hold everything else constant
               | and remove Musk. Is there any evidence that this would be
               | the case? Seems to me that all evidence points in the
               | opposite direction, and all companies not led by Musk are
               | not nearly as ambitious, goals oriented and successful.
               | 
               | If Musk had left the company in 2014, do you think
               | Starship and Starlink would be what they are now? Because
               | I think that is pretty unlikely.
        
               | TaylorAlexander wrote:
               | To be clear I have not yet perfected my time machine. I
               | am not suggesting Musk be replaced in 2014, but now.
               | Starship has all the momentum it needs and I have plenty
               | of confidence in Shotwell to stabilize that program and
               | ensure its success. She seems equally committed to
               | getting humanity to Mars but she might be a better face
               | for the company, and is certainly competent.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | But what about the next thing. There will always be the
               | next big challenge. There are many big challenges left to
               | actually make Mars happen. And even if the Mars thing
               | happens, what's next?
               | 
               | One could have made the argument that Musk should have
               | gone after the Falcon 9 was reusable as well.
               | 
               | Shotwell is certainty competent and would likely do a
               | good job as you suggest. But the best thing is if they
               | just continue to work together as they have, that seems
               | to have worked the best and I wouldn't want to mess with
               | it.
        
               | mlindner wrote:
               | Indeed if you go back in history at any point of SpaceX's
               | past and simply pluck out Elon, lots of things that
               | SpaceX does now simply wouldn't have happened.
        
               | wongarsu wrote:
               | Isn't it basically Shotwell at he helm right now? Sure,
               | Elon is the one giving factory tours, being visionary and
               | playing a big role in R&D, but internally Shotwell seems
               | to do everything you would expect from a CEO.
               | 
               | Maybe you could argue who's more in charge of strategic
               | direction at SpaceX, but on the other hand SpaceX seems
               | to be doing great in that division.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | mlindner wrote:
               | You should check out her own words on this from 2021.
               | https://archive.ph/p4Nkz
               | 
               | > Shotwell: The way Elon and I share the load, he focuses
               | on development. He's still very highly engaged in the
               | day-to-day operations, but his focus is on development.
               | He was the lead on Starlink, and I started shifting my
               | focus to Starlink around late spring, early summer of
               | last year. Elon's focus in that time was moving to
               | Starship, that is his primary focus at SpaceX. It doesn't
               | mean he's not thinking about the company on a day-to-day
               | basis, but his emphasis is to get the Starship program to
               | orbit.
               | 
               | This of course is slightly old because Shotwell has done
               | another shift and has taken (at least temporary) control
               | of Starship.
               | 
               | Generally if it's something interacting with the US
               | government, Shotwell handles it.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | LarryMullins wrote:
             | Don't fix it if it ain't broke. Despite Elon Musk behaving
             | stupidly in many other aspects and areas, SpaceX is still
             | working well. Whatever dynamic Musk and Shotwell have
             | between them, it's obviously working out well. So don't
             | "fix" it if it ain't broke.
        
             | mlindner wrote:
             | That would be horrible for the future of SpaceX. Shotwell
             | would run it well but she doesn't do pushing boundaries of
             | things like Elon. SpaceX would indeed be very successful
             | under Shotwell but you could forget them ever landing
             | humans on Mars under her leadership, at least not without
             | going hand in hand with some eventual NASA plan in the
             | 2050s or something (by which point she might have retired
             | anyway as she's 8 years older than Elon).
             | 
             | Also maybe it's simply being a good corporate leader, but
             | I've seen her stick her neck out and defend Elon many times
             | against criticism. They obviously like each other and get
             | along with each other. They're both needed.
        
           | moralestapia wrote:
           | There's two Musks for me, Tesla (and everyday) Musk and
           | SpaceX Musk. The latter has greatly exceeded my expectations!
        
             | kibwen wrote:
             | The success of SpaceX appears to be in minimizing the
             | amount of damage that Elon is capable of doing with his
             | relentless and short-sighted micromanaging.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | SpaceX and Tesla are some of the must successful firms in
               | two of the most difficult industries on the plant. Musk
               | is the longest running CEO in these industries.
               | 
               | There is lots of evidence that his micro-managing as you
               | call, is actually really, really successful. And there is
               | also a huge amount of evidence that Musk is actually not
               | short-sighted, but in fact thinks far ahead of the
               | competitors.
               | 
               | In 2014, the Gigafactory was considered crazy and a car
               | company investing so much of its own capital in something
               | that suppliers were supposed to do, was seen as idiotic.
               | Now this model is literally copied by everybody. In the
               | meantime, Tesla was a tiny car company in 2017, still
               | seen as somewhat of a joke. But even then they were
               | already starting to transition into a battery company and
               | now Tesla makes it own batteries, based on its own
               | chemistries in its own battery factory that is run with
               | its in-house designed and manufacturing machines.
               | 
               | So while GM and its partner is still trying to get its
               | first own Gigafactory online (and suffering serious
               | delays), Tesla has moved past that and is literally
               | building its own factories with its own chemistry.
               | 
               | We could go threw countless other examples. People love
               | to pick out cases where things didn't work and ignore all
               | the other cases where it did work.
        
               | kibwen wrote:
               | _> now Tesla makes it own batteries, based on its own
               | chemistries in its own battery factory that is run with
               | its in-house designed and manufacturing machines_
               | 
               | It's entirely unclear to me whether or not Tesla's
               | battery manufacturing is bearing any fruit in practice.
               | Here's the most recent article I found, from September:
               | https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-
               | transportation/inside...
               | 
               |  _The sources predict that Tesla will find it difficult
               | to fully implement the new dry-coating manufacturing
               | process before the end of this year, and perhaps not
               | until 2023. Stan Whittingham, a co-inventor of lithium-
               | ion batteries and a 2019 Nobel laureate, believes Tesla
               | Chief Executive Elon Musk has been overly optimistic on
               | the time frame for commercializing the new technique._
               | 
               |  _[...]_
               | 
               |  _Tesla acquired the know-how in 2019 when it paid over
               | $200 million for Maxwell Technologies, a company in San
               | Diego making ultracapacitors, which store energy for
               | devices that need quick bursts of electricity, such as
               | camera flashes._
               | 
               |  _[...]_
               | 
               |  _" They can produce in small volume, but when they
               | started big volume production, Tesla ended up with many
               | rejects, too many," one of the sources with ties to Tesla
               | told Reuters. Production yields were so low that all the
               | anticipated cost savings from the new process were lost,
               | the source said._
               | 
               | This sounds exactly like Elon Musk's usual MO: 1) acquire
               | a company and then take credit for their inventions in
               | order to paint himself as a visionary, 2) overpromise and
               | underdeliver, counting on his legions of blind faithful
               | to keep stock prices irrationally high in the process,
               | and 3) base all profitability on the availability of
               | government handouts, in this case the tax incentives for
               | US-sourced batteries.
        
       | FredPret wrote:
       | Reminds me of a book I just read - Critical Mass by Daniel Suarez
        
       | we_never_see_it wrote:
       | I have started rooting for Blue Origin after Elon Musk turned out
       | to be a right wing extremist. Good to see they are making
       | progress.
        
       | panick21_ wrote:
       | Talked about here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34774110
        
       | aj7 wrote:
       | One early Saturday morning around 1975 I walked into the Berkeley
       | Physics Dept. student machine shop. A bunch of nerds were
       | clustered around a big lathe that no one ever used because it had
       | so much backlash. Chucked in the lathe was a vacuum flange
       | monolithically attached to a broken glass tube that menacingly
       | stuck out from the headstock. Inside the glass tube was some
       | black gritty shit. The ways of the lathe had been carefully
       | covered with pristine Kim-Wipes. I gathered that this was part of
       | a mass spectrometer.
       | 
       | The black shit were Apollo moon rocks that this group had
       | analyzed for isotopic abundance. This grit was being reclaimed
       | from the spectrometer glass-tube flange part. "We have to account
       | for every last gram of this NASA sample."
       | 
       | There was a little residue off to the side. I touched it.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | UberFly wrote:
         | Finish the good story with the part about super powers...
        
       | ramesh31 wrote:
       | I would think they need an orbital class rocket first? Their
       | timeline is making SLS look good by comparison.
        
         | waitwhatuh wrote:
         | Would they? Surely they could also contract on other carriers?
        
         | imiric wrote:
         | I wish space companies would cooperate for the benefit of all
         | humankind, so that we wouldn't need to reinvent the wheel every
         | time. Competition is good, but waiting for the entire
         | production line to be solved by a single company would delay
         | our efforts by decades.
         | 
         | Let SpaceX focus on the rockets, and Blue Origin on
         | bootstrapping a moon base.
        
       | Octokiddie wrote:
       | > To make long-term presence on the Moon viable, we need abundant
       | electrical power. We can make power systems on the Moon directly
       | from materials that exist everywhere on the surface, without
       | special substances brought from Earth. We have pioneered the
       | technology and demonstrated all the steps. Our approach, Blue
       | Alchemist, can scale indefinitely, eliminating power as a
       | constraint anywhere on the Moon.
       | 
       | There's a missing step in there - the production of solar cells
       | on the lunar surface. Having the materials to do so is one thing,
       | but being able to manufacture them to spec on the surface of the
       | moon is another. The article only lightly touches on this.
       | 
       | Still, this is a surprising achievement from an organization I
       | didn't even know did chemistry.
        
       | M95D wrote:
       | So they can make a solar panel from regolith. Good, but not good
       | enough. Can they build another reactor using only regolith, solar
       | panels and their first reactor?
        
       | gene-h wrote:
       | What they don't mention is how efficient the solar cells produced
       | are. NASA's NIAC studied making solar cells in a similar manner
       | and estimated they could produce solar cells with 6-9%
       | efficiency[0]. Efficiency was limited due to impurities in the
       | silicon they produced. They have made some pretty big
       | improvements over the NIAC work by being able to produce cover
       | glass, which the NIAC study didn't even consider.
       | 
       | Another big question is how much mass needs to be shipped up from
       | earth to manufacturer solar cells. Dopants will still need to be
       | shipped up as they cannot currently be obtained with this method,
       | but the mass per area solar cell is practically nothing. More
       | concerning are the electrodes for their electrolysis cell.
       | 
       | They are literally electrolyzing molten lava. Molten silicates
       | are a very good solvent and the hot oxidizing environment of the
       | anode is quite harsh. We do have materials which can withstand
       | this environment, but how long will they last? How much power can
       | the whole set up produce and would it be more than landing the
       | setup's weight in solar cells?
       | 
       | Regardless this is still a major advance. Materials processing of
       | this level suitable for the lunar environment has not been
       | previously demonstrated.
       | 
       | [0]https://www.niac.usra.edu/files/library/meetings/annual/jun0..
       | .
        
         | SECProto wrote:
         | > Another big question is how much mass needs to be shipped up
         | from earth to manufacturer solar cells.
         | 
         | If you take the linked page at face value, it explicitly
         | states:
         | 
         | > without special substances brought from Earth.
         | 
         | (I suspect, like most press releases, some important details
         | aren't being provided. Maybe dopants aren't considered "special
         | substances")
        
           | gene-h wrote:
           | This study[0] estimated that less than a microgram of dopant
           | is needed per m^2 and that producing 5 MW of solar cells
           | requires 1 gram of phosphorous. [0]https://ascelibrary.org/do
           | i/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)0893-1321(2001...
        
         | dotnet00 wrote:
         | They claim to achieve 99.999% purity on the silicon, so it
         | sounds like they might do better than 6-9% on efficiency. But
         | then again if they were anywhere near Earth produced panels,
         | they would probably be saying that to everyone who would
         | listen.
        
         | jmyeet wrote:
         | > What they don't mention is how efficient the solar cells
         | produced are.
         | 
         | This... may or may not matter. When it comes to solar power on
         | the Moon, there are significant advantages and some serious
         | disadvantages. The most obvious advantage is that there is no
         | weather and no atmosphere. This means a lunar solar cell has
         | way more potential power generation than an terrestrial solar
         | cell. The big disadvantage is the long day night cycle. The
         | Moon is tidally locked with Earth with an orbit of 28 days so
         | that's basically 14 days of day and 14 days of night.
         | 
         | You have to work around this problem with batteries, which add
         | a ton more mass, having panels (and settlements most likely) at
         | the poles or running a network of solar cells around the Moon
         | with power cables.
         | 
         | Settling the poles makes sense as this is where the most water
         | is.
         | 
         | But having a network of panels probably makes a lot of sense
         | too. For one, aluminium is abundant so making electrical cables
         | should be entirely possible.
         | 
         | > Another big question is how much mass needs to be shipped up
         | from earth to manufacturer solar cells.
         | 
         | Yes, this is a huge factor, probably way more than efficiency
         | is. Or at least we should look at power generation per unit
         | mass shipped from EArth.
        
           | super5000 wrote:
           | If they're going to make solar panels on the moon, perhaps
           | the creativity won't stop there: Maybe we don't need to ship
           | batteries, either.
           | 
           | They can make batteries out of moon rocks [1], use fly
           | wheels, melt lava, etc. None super efficiently, but as a
           | start.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_battery
        
         | ricardobeat wrote:
         | Isn't solar exposure on the moon stronger than earth due to the
         | lack of an atmosphere? Efficiency per sqm might end up being
         | higher.
        
           | beakergordon wrote:
           | I think the implied comparison was: do we launch panels to
           | the moon or build them in-situ? The increased solar exposure
           | should boost both of these cases by the same percentage, but
           | if the Earth-manufactured panel is (e.g.) 3x as efficient, it
           | might still make more sense to ship them.
        
           | dr_orpheus wrote:
           | Yep, you get about 36% more sun above the atmosphere. 1361
           | W/m^2 above the atmosphere vs ~1000 W/m^2 on a clear day [0].
           | 
           | Now you just need to bring big enough batteries to survive 14
           | days in a row with no sun.
           | 
           | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_irradiance#Irradiance
           | _on...
        
             | beefield wrote:
             | I think you might find places relatively close each other
             | in the moon polar areas that are in aggregate illuminated
             | most if not all the time.
             | 
             | https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/34025/moon-
             | polar-d...
        
             | joemi wrote:
             | Wouldn't it be smarter to build on the far side of the
             | moon? Then you don't need to worry about the Earth
             | obscuring the sun at all, right? Or were you referring to
             | some other phenomena?
        
               | outworlder wrote:
               | You still get the Moon obscuring itself. The Earth is not
               | eclipsing the Sun most of the time.
        
               | 867-5309 wrote:
               | the moon is tidally locked to the Earth, i.e. it does not
               | rotate about an axis, and takes ~27 days to orbit.
               | therefore around half of those days are in darkness at
               | any given point on its surface, hence the lunar phases
        
               | joemi wrote:
               | Ah yeah, makes sense... I confused myself.
        
             | leidenfrost wrote:
             | Considering the fact that you have the entire moon as
             | available surface, you'd rather lift a giant rock with that
             | power and store all the potential gravitational energy as a
             | "battery".
             | 
             | A 10 ton rock, lifted up to 50m high, will store up to 810M
             | Joules at moon gravity
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | sbierwagen wrote:
               | >A 10 ton rock, lifted up to 50m high, will store up to
               | 810M Joules at moon gravity
               | 
               | Wrong prefix? I think you meant 810K Joules.
               | 
               | For Earth gravity: 10,000 kg times 9.8 m/s^2 times 50 m =
               | 4.9 megajoules, 1.36 kilowatthours. (Anker sells a 2.04
               | KWh battery pack for US$1999:
               | https://www.anker.com/products/a1780 The manual says it
               | masses 30.5 kg, so that's a cool 491.88x difference in
               | mass power density.)
               | 
               | Again, that's for _Earth_ gravity. Lunar gravity: 10,000
               | kg times 1.62 m /s^2 times 50 m = 0.81 megajoules, 0.225
               | kilowatthours. (2,976x difference in mass power density
               | vs the lithium battery.)
               | 
               | Gravity storage isn't economical on Earth, and it's
               | really not economical on the Moon, where gravity is
               | lighter.
        
               | sacred_numbers wrote:
               | Unfortunately I think you're off by an order of
               | magnitude. I think it would be 810 Kilojoules, which is
               | approximately equivalent to a 1kg lithium-ion battery. Of
               | course, you could move thousands of rocks up and down a
               | big crater, rather than just one, but it would still be a
               | lot of infrastructure for a fairly small amount of energy
               | storage.
        
               | sbierwagen wrote:
               | Three orders of magnitude*
        
             | napier wrote:
             | No need for reliance on batteries. Just use the solar
             | generated to process regolith yielding plenty of hydrogen
             | and oxygen for energy storage, breathing, rocket fuel and
             | additional component elements.
        
         | mlyle wrote:
         | > We do have materials which can withstand this environment,
         | but how long will they last? How much power can the whole set
         | up produce and would it be more than landing the setup's weight
         | in solar cells?
         | 
         | Oh, of course this is terrible now. It would have a very, very
         | large required scale to come out ahead compared to just
         | shipping power or power generation some other way (if this is
         | true at any scale). It is also surely not fully baked yet.
         | 
         | On the other hand... it's a notable step towards being able to
         | build "big" in space and might be worth doing to learn more
         | about the practical aspect even if it's higher risk and more
         | costly than shipping a bunch of PV.
         | 
         | The bigger problem is how practical is it to use PV at all on
         | much of the moon.
        
       | xt00 wrote:
       | I'm sure ULA who has been waiting for years for some engines to
       | fly their new rocket is uber excited about this.. /s :-) so maybe
       | they will fly Vulcan this year??
        
       | wonderwonder wrote:
       | If this works (big if) and they are able to essentially build a
       | solar panel factory in a box and if lab grown protein is both
       | able to scale and be shipped in a modular structure (big if) they
       | have effectively solved or close to solved 2 of the largest
       | challenges involved in establishing moon or mars based colonies.
       | Food and power. Science fiction is sneaking up on us.
       | 
       | If it can be automated you could essentially launch space craft
       | factories that land and build solar panels prior to humans
       | arriving. Far fetched but neat to think about. Approaching von
       | Neumann probe territory
        
         | px43 wrote:
         | There's basically zero carbon on the moon. A ton of it on Mars
         | though (lots of CO2 ice).
         | 
         | Our moon is something like 45% silica on the surface. That is a
         | _fuckton_ of silicon. Step one is definitely making a solar
         | panel factory, and then using that power to smelt aluminum,
         | iron, titanium, etc. It seems to me that the moon would make
         | for a good floating semiconductor fab, and eventually, data
         | center. It would be great for making large structures for
         | spacecraft, since the materials are right, and the lower
         | gravity makes it much cheaper to get the parts into space.
         | 
         | It doesn't make sense for a _ton_ of people to live there,
         | since we would have to bring all of our own carbon, which is
         | kind of important for biological life.
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | >That is a fuckton of silicon.
           | 
           | Not really, silicon is abundant everywhere with rocks. Most
           | rocks anywhere are going to be about half silicon, not that
           | this is exactly true everywhere but nobody is ever going to
           | wonder where they're going to be getting their silicon.
        
             | Vikerchu wrote:
             | The problem is that you need to get the silica out of the
             | rock or ship to the moon And you need to power the refinery
             | and something to to heat it with and co2 airlock and on and
             | on.
        
               | colechristensen wrote:
               | Oh no the point I'm trying to make is just that any rocky
               | planet or moon or whatever is going to be like 10-50%
               | silicon right on the surface. It is more or less as
               | abundant as is possible to imagine anywhere we can land.
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | > There's basically zero carbon on the moon.
           | 
           | I can see the end of certain rituals on account of that
           | little fact.
        
           | jbattle wrote:
           | Assuming abundant power and effective carbon recapture /
           | recycling, how much carbon do you need per person? If it was
           | on the order of 50 lbs of carbon per person, and that could
           | be infinitely recycled, that doesn't seem wildly onerous. It
           | looks like the average person exhales about 2 pounds of
           | carbon per day, so that's a very rough baseline in terms of
           | carbon needs.
           | 
           | Is there a technology available now or soon that can scrub
           | carbon out of the ambient air and capture that in an easy to
           | reuse medium?
        
             | px43 wrote:
             | ~~Yeah, I think carbon recycling can be pretty good.
             | They've been doing it on submarines for a while.~~
             | 
             | (edit: nevermind, I was confused about the submarine thing,
             | the user "idlewords" below has a lot of good commentary
             | about this)
             | 
             | At any given moment, any human is about 18% carbon. Carbon
             | is also pretty important in *carbo*hydrates. Any plants
             | that we would grow would need a ton of carbon. It can be
             | done, but any moon colony will basically always be
             | dependent on getting extra carbon from Earth, so it can
             | never be "self sufficient" in the way that Mars can
             | eventually be.
             | 
             | It is kind of funny that on Earth, we're obsessed with
             | capturing and burying as much carbon as possible, when it's
             | going to be an incredibly valuable resource on the moon,
             | assuming that a bunch of people are gong to want to live
             | there.
        
               | idlewords wrote:
               | Submarines don't recycle carbon; they capture CO2 and
               | vent it.
        
               | rtkwe wrote:
               | Mostly because they don't need to retain it though, a sub
               | doesn't need to reprocess the CO2 into C and O2 but the
               | process can be done. The process is largely the same
               | instead of ejecting it as a waste product continue to
               | break it down into useful products like injecting it into
               | a Sabatier process.
        
               | idlewords wrote:
               | The Sabatier reactor on the space station broke after
               | processing about a thousand liters of water because
               | deodorant and astronaut urine poisoned the catalyst beds.
               | 
               | Everything is easy to do in theory. Recycling carbon in
               | practice is very, very hard if you don't have plants to
               | help you.
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | Hypothetically... after you have separated the carbon
               | from the oxygen (discounting the human waste which has a
               | significantly more amount of carbon)... what would you do
               | with it as part of a recycling process in a submarine?
        
               | rtkwe wrote:
               | In current tech not much comes to mine. Maybe it could be
               | reprocessed into dry graphite lubricant but there's not
               | much need for raw carbon or principally carbon materials
               | in a submarine. That's another reason it just gets tossed
               | there's just not a real use for it. On a hypothetical
               | extraplanetary colony though it's a pretty important
               | material just to keep people alive.
        
               | wonderwonder wrote:
               | Seems like carbon capture and export to the moon is a
               | business that is just short of a billionaire to implement
               | it.
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | Submarines restock food, some air supplies, and... deal
               | with waste.
               | 
               | Food https://youtu.be/bPJUVKizh90
               | 
               | Air https://youtu.be/g3Ud6mHdhlQ (MEA and LIOH for CO2,
               | electrolysis and "candles" for oxygen)
               | 
               | Toilet https://youtu.be/SYFuA3xnkUE?t=985
               | 
               | Nothing is "recycled" as such - and certainly not any of
               | the carbon (you're not eating the carbon captured from
               | MEA or LIOH... or your waste).
        
             | TaylorAlexander wrote:
             | I'm pretty sure NASA has been reusing carbon on human
             | spacecraft since at least the Apollo program.
        
               | idlewords wrote:
               | That is not the case; carbon (as CO2) was captured by
               | disposable LiOH cartridges through the end of the Shuttle
               | program. On the ISS, it's captured on zeolite beds and
               | vented into space. Except for a few small-scale plant
               | experiments, no space program has demonstrated carbon
               | capture and re-use.
        
               | TaylorAlexander wrote:
               | Ah I see, thank you! I figured someone would know better
               | than me on this.
        
           | Tuna-Fish wrote:
           | > There's basically zero carbon on the moon.
           | 
           | That's a big citation needed.
           | 
           | There is very little carbon on the sites that we have
           | studied, but they were all fairly similar equatorial
           | locations. CO2 is heavy enough that it doesn't immediately
           | escape moon, when some is delivered (for example by a
           | meteorite), it will bounce around for a while. If, during
           | that time, it hits a really cold surface, it will freeze and
           | stay there. Such cold surfaces are available in abundance at
           | permanently shadowed craters at the poles, and also inside
           | lava tubes.
           | 
           | We have gone a long way since we thought that moon was dry
           | and lacked carbon. These days, most of the people studying it
           | are fairly confident that every single permanently cold
           | crater holds a glacier, composed of mixed ices, mostly water,
           | CO2 and methane.
           | 
           | The only element needed for people that we still think that
           | the Moon has a shortage of is nitrogen.
        
             | gene-h wrote:
             | Lava tubes have been measured to be quite warm[0]. This
             | study concludes that "Neither [regolith or PSRs can
             | provide] a abundant long-term supply of carbon to support a
             | sustainable human presence on the Moon"[1] Although
             | permanently shadowed craters are not very well understood.
             | 
             | [0]https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022
             | GL09... [1]https://arxiv.org/pdf/2104.13521.pdf
        
               | Vikerchu wrote:
               | Doesn't moon dust give you giga cancer? Well i guess its
               | a cave...
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | The cave is to reduce the need for cosmic ray and
               | micrometeoroid shelter (it's easier to build in a balloon
               | in a cave than it is to build on the surface and fortify
               | it).
               | 
               | Moon dust is toxic and jagged ( https://www.esa.int/Scien
               | ce_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Ex... and
               | https://www.livescience.com/62590-moon-dust-bad-lungs-
               | brain.... ).
               | 
               | > In several lab tests, a single scoop of replica moon
               | dust proved toxic enough to kill up to 90 percent of the
               | lung and brain cells exposed to it.
        
           | rtkwe wrote:
           | There was a decent trillogy from Ian McDonald that featured a
           | massive solar furnace that slowly circumnavigated the moon to
           | keep in direct sun light that produced the metal for the
           | colonies across the moon.
        
             | shagie wrote:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Walk_in_the_Sun_(short_stor
             | y...
             | 
             | > The story follows Trish, the sole survivor of a terrible
             | crash landing on the Moon. After regaining her senses, she
             | contacts Earth and learns that it will be thirty days
             | before a rescue mission can reach her. In the meantime, she
             | depends on a wing-like solar panel to provide power to her
             | suit's recycling facilities, and lunar night is
             | approaching.
             | 
             | https://www.baen.com/Chapters/0671878522/0671878522___1.htm
        
             | LarryMullins wrote:
             | It would need to move at about 15 km/h at the equator, and
             | slower at other latitudes. That's surprisingly reasonable.
        
               | rtkwe wrote:
               | In the story I believe they had built rails for it too to
               | run on or at least hardened and sintered regolith courses
               | to drive through. It's a surprisingly reasonable pace for
               | even a huge structure to have access to prime solar
               | energy continuously. The series it called Luna if you're
               | interested, the social structure is a bit out there but I
               | enjoyed them.
        
           | comex wrote:
           | With a 2.5 second ping time from the Earth to Moon, data
           | centers seem to me like a limited proposition. Sure, there
           | are some use cases that could tolerate it, but many that
           | can't, and even where tolerating it is technically possible,
           | it's annoying enough (e.g. it's hard to use SSH with that
           | kind of latency) that there'd need to be significant cost
           | savings for anyone to use it. But the cost would depend not
           | just on the cost of raw materials but also the enormous cost
           | of creating the fabs. On Earth that can be amortized with
           | equally enormous production volume; that might be harder on
           | the Moon...
        
             | riffic wrote:
             | it'd be a nice but expensive storage location though.
        
               | beakergordon wrote:
               | If the goal was isolation from natural disasters and the
               | like, then why not just build it in a facility like Yucca
               | Mountain?
        
               | junipertea wrote:
               | Maybe bragging rights. My dog photo collection can
               | survive societal collapse.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | why would yucca mt be susceptible to societal collapse?
        
           | johnwalkr wrote:
           | There's at least a couple of bags of Apollo-era poo on the
           | moon.
        
           | superkuh wrote:
           | Also basically zero accessible nitrogen.
        
         | TheRealNGenius wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | Teever wrote:
         | My personal take on things is that we're far closer to von
         | Neumann probe level technology than anyone seems to be aware
         | of, and we're just sort of sleep walking into a crazy new
         | future.
         | 
         | I wish more people on HN would talk about von Nuemann probes
         | and things like seed factories[0] instead of smartphone apps
         | and people pooping on the streets of San Francisco.
         | 
         | [0] https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Seed_Factories
        
           | gene-h wrote:
           | Making solar cells like this is a nice first step to making
           | self replicating machines. Being able to make solar cells is
           | especially interesting because these are semiconductor
           | devices, so producing control electronics may be possible
           | too.
           | 
           | But really what needs to be solved for self-replicating
           | machines is determining a way to make actuators. On the Moon
           | this is harder due to the difficulty of making bearings and
           | gears. Because of vacuum welding making bearings is much more
           | difficult. While solid lubricants do exist, it's difficult to
           | obtain the materials necessary on the Moon. Traditional
           | machining and polishing processes don't work well in a vacuum
           | either due to vacuum welding and the inability to use
           | lubricant.
           | 
           | If we wish to carry out said processes in a pressurized
           | environment we run into another problem: seals. In order to
           | make good seals we need elastomers, and elastomers require
           | elements such as hydrogen, carbon, and nitrogen which are
           | difficult to obtain on the Moon.
        
             | Teever wrote:
             | Is the issue with manufacturing bearings in a vacuum or
             | operating them in a vacuum?
             | 
             | If it is the former it seems like the solution is as simple
             | as building a pressurized manufacturing facility.
        
               | gene-h wrote:
               | Both. And again, the issue with a pressurized
               | manufacturing facility is making seals.
        
               | Teever wrote:
               | Why not make a solid enclosure out of metal and melt a
               | hole in it when you need to move material in and out?
        
           | wonderwonder wrote:
           | This looks like a good read, thanks for this. I had not heard
           | of a seed factory before.
        
             | Teever wrote:
             | Yeah, I've tried posting it on HN before but it never
             | gained any traction. It is a fascinating read and the
             | author is active on reddit[0] and he'll answer any
             | questions you have about the book.
             | 
             | I just reposted it[1], Let's see if it gets some comments
             | this time.
             | 
             | [0] https://www.reddit.com/user/danielravennest [1]
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34795006
        
         | idlewords wrote:
         | The second technology you mention is a bit of a non sequitur.
         | What lab grown protein, shipped where? Right now there is no
         | nutritionally complete food of any kind that is shelf-stable
         | for three years; it's a major open problem in long-duration
         | space flight.
        
           | wonderwonder wrote:
           | Food, power, shelter and air are essentially the big issues
           | for space colonization. With the lab protein I was speaking
           | of the possibility of shipping a close to self sustaining bio
           | reactor in a box to a colony to solve for the food issue. I
           | mentioned this as it's an evolving technology that may be
           | closer to prime time at the same time as the solar panels
           | concept the article mentioned.
        
             | outworlder wrote:
             | > I mentioned this as it's an evolving technology that may
             | be closer to prime time
             | 
             | Unlikely. We have yet to master nutrition when it comes
             | from plants, it will be even worse for a bioreactor.
             | Unfortunately, the list of food ingredients that you see
             | listed in minimum recommended intake values is woefully
             | incomplete. There's a whole bunch of micronutrients we get
             | from food that are difficult to replicate.
             | 
             | Bioreactors could be useful for making supplements (say,
             | Omega-3) to offset specific deficiencies.
        
           | outworlder wrote:
           | And even if we did have nutritionally stable food for this
           | long, there's a growing amount of evidence that even just
           | mechanical food processing is enough to make it _unhealthy_ -
           | if it comprises the majority of your consumption - and that
           | it causes metabolic problems (irrespective of additives). And
           | that's on Earth.
           | 
           | If we are to eat just processed food in space, we'll need a
           | lot more research on this. It would be better if we just grew
           | food from plants.
           | 
           | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8747021/
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | There is also a cool idea about building robots that use things
         | like ice to build themselves bodies and can build versions of
         | themselves.
         | 
         | You likely still have to send along a whole lot of electronics
         | pars because making those on the spot would be difficult.
        
           | Vikerchu wrote:
           | Fusion\fission refining? ??????
        
           | chairhairair wrote:
           | Yes making ice-based self-replicating robots is
           | "difficult"...
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | We are also don't have much real research into actually
             | trying it. And it doesn't have to all the way self-
             | replicating. It more like using local materials to build
             | the heavy parts of robots. Maybe those robots then couldn't
             | build another one of themselves.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Unless space ice has mechanical properties comparable to
               | steel, I don't see the point in even trying...
        
               | dotnet00 wrote:
               | While ice is a somewhat extreme example, the idea of
               | bringing over the electronics and using local materials
               | to put together whatever structural components are needed
               | isn't that crazy. It'd save a lot of mass, and things
               | like 3d printers can produce them with reasonable
               | precision. There already is a decent amount of research
               | into the prospect of 3d printing structures with Lunar or
               | Martian regolith, so structural components for robots or
               | machines don't seem too crazy.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | I don't remember the details and I don't remember the
               | exact place where I have heard and interview with
               | somebody that works on this stuff.
               | 
               | They wouldn't use pure ice. But in cold places, with ice
               | mixed with some other materials you can actually make
               | quite good materials. Consider that in most places
               | gravity is much lower then on earth so it doesn't need to
               | be carbon fiber to be useful.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | I said steel, not carbon fibre. And even in zero-g things
               | still have mass to them that needs to be handled, don't
               | they?
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | I know what you said, I just used carbon fibre to make a
               | point is. You don't always need the best materials to
               | have something useful.
               | 
               | Yes things still have mass but if you are building a
               | robot that moves around there is a big difference in what
               | kind of quality structural materials you need for the
               | robot to be viable.
               | 
               | Part of the research that would go into such project
               | would be to look at what local resources are, and how to
               | make them into useful materials. For example, using ice
               | in combination with some filler material has been shown
               | to be quite usable in cold temperatures.
               | 
               | The exact materials you would use depend on where you
               | would want to use this kind of system. Maybe in the far
               | future these kind of system would look around to analyses
               | the environment and make smart choices about what
               | materials to use to build themselves.
        
         | 14 wrote:
         | I too thought this is like something out of Star Trek how
         | amazing would this be if it indeed works.
        
         | gene-h wrote:
         | The approach they develop likely doesn't work on Mars. They
         | rely on the ambient high vacuum environment of the Moon as part
         | of the silicon purification step and likely for deposition of
         | the solar cells. Mars is not high vacuum.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | I listen to a podcast by somebody that works for a company
           | that does this kind of thing. I think he said Mars atmo is so
           | thin that many things actually work quite well based on their
           | calculation, but it does lead to problems in some situations.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | t43562 wrote:
       | Science fiction becoming reality. By the time it's in use on the
       | moon nobody will be amazed by it. The same way nobody is amazed
       | to hold a tiny world-communicator in their hand and communicate
       | with people on the other side of the planet by video.
        
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