[HN Gopher] Military shoots down another high-altitude object, o...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Military shoots down another high-altitude object, over Lake Huron:
       officials
        
       Author : guywithabowtie
       Score  : 74 points
       Date   : 2023-02-12 21:18 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (abcnews.go.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (abcnews.go.com)
        
       | DebtDeflation wrote:
       | On the one hand:
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_balloon
       | 
       | >Between 900 and 1,300 locations around the globe do routine
       | releases, two or four times daily.
       | 
       | On the other hand, weather balloons are not silver-gray and
       | cylindrical. A Google image search shows them almost always white
       | and spherical to teardrop shape and pretty much unmistakably a
       | balloon.
        
         | userbinator wrote:
         | The cylindrical description fits what could be hung from a
         | balloon, however.
        
           | anigbrowl wrote:
           | Or a small dirigible. You can buy those for a few thousand
           | though I have no idea on their flight ceiling etc.
        
           | janoc wrote:
           | And it just so happens that most meteorological payloads tend
           | to be cylindrical/small boxes.
           | 
           | So it is possible that trigger-happy NORAD is shooting down a
           | lot of perfectly harmless stuff now.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | > Between 900 and 1,300 locations around the globe do routine
         | releases, two or four times daily.
         | 
         | Are the electronics in these balloons recovered eventually? Or
         | is it just basically e-waste?
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | Also the weather balloons are launched on consistent schedule /
         | from consistent consistent locations and they often have a
         | transmitter that allows them to send back data and even be
         | found right?
         | 
         | Not to say one of these can't be a weather balloon, but I would
         | expect these also are known possibilities / somewhat detectable
         | / aren't trying to be sneaky ...
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | Yup. There are different requirements depending on payload
           | size, but if you're doing it regularly even if you don't have
           | to, you send appropriate information anyway notifying the
           | right people locally what is flying where, expected flight
           | paths, descriptions, exact times, etc.
           | 
           | We did a balloon launch a long time ago, it had a radio
           | sending back telemetry and we chased it across Colorado scrub
           | land hundreds of miles.
        
           | femto wrote:
           | A "well behaved" balloon should also carry a corner
           | reflector, so it clearly stands out on radar.
           | 
           | https://www.overlookhorizon.com/how-to-launch-weather-
           | balloo...
        
             | duxup wrote:
             | TIL, that's cool.
        
               | Kon-Peki wrote:
               | > Commercially available radar reflectors are frequently
               | found as a sailboat supply item
               | 
               | Wooden and fiberglass boats are fairly invisible to
               | radar, even with metal masts and rigging. If you are ever
               | planning to head out into the ocean and near where you
               | might expect commercial shipping, these are a cheap
               | safety item for making your boat visible.
        
       | georgeg23 wrote:
       | Balloons could be a clever counter to what the US is doing with
       | Low Earth Orbit satellites recently. SpaceX is launching tons of
       | spy/missile defense satellites over China as part of the Space
       | Development Agency:
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Development_Agency
       | 
       | China has been complaining to the United Nations about it.
       | https://press.un.org/en/2022/gadis3698.doc.htm
       | 
       | More details:
       | https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Starshield_(satellite_constellati...
        
         | moose_man wrote:
         | China could do the same thing if they wanted. That isn't a good
         | excuse to violate national airspace. Maybe they want to
         | intercept cell phone data.
        
           | blindriver wrote:
           | They have Huawei equipment is almost every cell tower
           | installation to do that already.
        
             | Arubis wrote:
             | What's the service life on such equipment? Sales of new
             | Huawei telecom equip have been banned outright in the US
             | for a couple months.
             | https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-fcc-
             | bans-e...
        
             | moose_man wrote:
             | Maybe some of the poorer networks have residual 3G
             | equipment, but in general, the US has been cracking down on
             | Huawei for a decade. They don't have a huge presence in the
             | US.
        
           | georgeg23 wrote:
           | And try to compete with Starship??
           | 
           | Judging from Alibaba, airships are more Chinese specialty.
        
             | moose_man wrote:
             | They have their own space station dude. They also have tons
             | of satellites, including LEO satellites. China is not some
             | poor country.
        
             | Ankaios wrote:
             | There are Chinese launch companies that are trying to
             | compete with Starship.
        
         | sgt101 wrote:
         | Alternatively (if they need a counter) they could launch LEO
         | satellites themselves?
        
           | ge96 wrote:
           | Side note, the Chinese satellite (according to news) that did
           | laser testing over Hawaii was visually pretty neat
        
         | analog31 wrote:
         | Something that puzzles me is how you specifically target China
         | with a satellite. They can't be geostationary unless they're
         | over the equator.
        
           | enkid wrote:
           | They're targeting Chinese capabilities, not Chinese
           | geography.
        
           | ethanbond wrote:
           | Lots and lots of satellites that keep passing overhead and
           | you compose the images to abstract away the fact they came
           | from multiple physical satellites.
           | 
           | Idk how many companies/govs have this capability but:
           | https://www.palantir.com/offerings/metaconstellation/
        
             | Redoubts wrote:
             | But then it's hard to claim that such a system is targeting
             | any one specific place.
        
             | tomrod wrote:
             | Planet.com. Maxar. Etc.
             | 
             | CubeSats are cheap and effective.
        
             | bboygravity wrote:
             | There's only one company with that capability and that's
             | the only organization in the world ever to achieve first
             | stage (and soon all stage) reusability for LEO launches.
             | 
             | Because to achieve that you need to put a lot of stuff in
             | orbit and the only way to affordably do that is cheap
             | (reusable) launches.
        
               | sgt101 wrote:
               | The technical change is that you can build very useful,
               | very small sats, which are cheap. Current SpaceX launch
               | costs are lower, but like 1/2 price and 2x is not a big
               | premium for a national security need.
        
               | georgeg23 wrote:
               | 10x cost for Falcon 9 (actual internal cost) and 100x
               | less for Starship when available..
        
               | ethanbond wrote:
               | I don't believe that's true. There are quite a few
               | companies with tons of satellites in space. Walmart put
               | up an array in _1987_.
        
             | georgeg23 wrote:
             | Interesting that Palantir video shows SpaceX dragon as an
             | example of "integrating with existing satellites".
             | Plantir's Thiel and Elon go way back...
        
               | tough wrote:
               | They don't call it the Paypal Mafia just cause
        
               | georgeg23 wrote:
               | Pretty clear this guy is a key player in their mafia
               | https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_D._Griffin#Career
        
           | Rebelgecko wrote:
           | First off, I don't buy the underlying premise because the US
           | has been launching satellites with global coverage for 50
           | years... I don't see why China would wait until now to
           | respond.
           | 
           | But for your question, with LEO satellites you don't really
           | target specific countries. They cover every country within a
           | given latitude range. A round LEO orbit that goes over the US
           | must also go over China.
           | 
           | However you don't need geostationary orbits to target a given
           | part of the globe. Molniya orbits do the same thing more or
           | less and work better if you want coverage further away from
           | the equator. They were popularized by the USSR and the US and
           | China use them to varying extents.
        
             | analog31 wrote:
             | I had to look it up. It must have taken some impressive
             | math work to invent that orbit in the 1960s.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molniya_orbit
        
             | georgeg23 wrote:
             | The SDA satellites are barely skimming Earth's atmosphere
             | and may eventually take a more "active" role intercepting
             | missiles and even targeting the ground, at least that's
             | according to the SDA program's founder,
             | https://breakingdefense.com/2018/08/space-based-missile-
             | defe...
        
         | ianburrell wrote:
         | SpaceX has launched 8 Starshield satellites. Nobody knows what
         | they do but they are probably testbeds for platform and space
         | link communications. There are SDA launches planned for March
         | and June.
         | 
         | I wouldn't expect to see spy satellites from the SDA; the NRO
         | has always controlled those. I could believe small spy
         | satellites if launched from NRO. There haven't been any details
         | on how missile defense will work from space with small
         | satellites. The descriptions I've seen have been about
         | communication and detecting hypersonic weapons with infrared
         | sensors. The latter is not what I would think of as spy
         | satellite or missile defense.
        
           | lost_tourist wrote:
           | I highly doubt is the US government doesn't know what they
           | do, it's just the public that doesn't know.
        
           | georgeg23 wrote:
           | Those links give a lot more information.
        
         | localplume wrote:
         | Surveillance satellites are very different to directly flying
         | this equipment into US airspace, including the fact that this
         | equipment could hold paylods other than ISR. Not to mention
         | this comment implies China does not have equivalent spy
         | satellites, which it does. Also the UN is an absolute joke.
         | That article links has China and Russia complaining about the
         | West being aggressors so honestly its kinda BS. Also forgetting
         | about China's [ASAT
         | test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fengyun) which has been the
         | worst in history.
        
           | gambiting wrote:
           | >>Also the UN is an absolute joke
           | 
           | UN is literally _just_ a forum for countries to meet and
           | discuss matters. Nothing more nothing less. I have no idea
           | why people expect UN to take action, when UN is explicitly
           | not an organisation for taking any actions.
        
           | ziftface wrote:
           | Hard to blame most countries for thinking of the west as
           | aggressors to be fair.
        
             | moose_man wrote:
             | [flagged]
        
       | BMc2020 wrote:
       | The PRC reminds me of a lot of youtube videos I have seen:
       | There's one or more young men who are enjoying the fuck around
       | portion of the evening who then discover how fast it can turn
       | into the find out portion of the evening.
        
         | okasaki wrote:
         | I was going to say something about this being a ridiculous
         | reason for conflict, but then again the US does have a history
         | of starting wars over fantasies and fabrications. So consider
         | curbing your moronic jingoistic attitude.
        
           | BMc2020 wrote:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
       | heyflyguy wrote:
       | I wish there was more clarity on if these are balloons or not.
        
         | ALittleLight wrote:
         | Yeah, I don't understand the ambiguity from the government and
         | military. They have to have pictures of these things. Show us
         | what they look like. Tell us if they are balloons. Are they
         | under power against the wind? What speed? All these details
         | must be known, it's been days, why aren't they telling us?
        
           | mach1ne wrote:
           | Strongly suggests against balloons - mainly because they
           | already shot one down and it was no biggie. Aliens are not
           | impossible any more, but drones of some kind remain the
           | vastly most probable option.
        
             | janoc wrote:
             | Drone at 40000 feet? That's higher than most airliners -
             | that would need be one heck of a drone, especially given
             | where they have shot it down and how far it would have had
             | to fly.
             | 
             | Much more likely sounding/meteorological balloons - a lot
             | of those are sent up every day, worldwide, with payloads
             | that are roughly cylindrical in shape. And some of them can
             | traverse huge distances, even across oceans, so such "UFO"
             | doesn't need to originate locally at all.
        
               | mach1ne wrote:
               | To my understanding the latest object traversed from
               | Montana to Lake Huron in less than 24 hours. Can any such
               | balloon really travel that fast?
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | The jet stream currently has a strong west to east north
               | east component from Montana to the Great lakes. The winds
               | peed varies greatly depending on altitude, but a floating
               | object can easily be pushed along at speeds in excess of
               | 120mph.
               | 
               | A strong jet stream can exceed 250mph.
        
               | runarberg wrote:
               | NASA's XL-Calibur travelled over 4,000 km between Sweden
               | and Nunavut in 5-7 days[1]. Montana to Huron is less then
               | half the distance. 24 hours is a bit fast, but not
               | impossible.
               | 
               | https://twitter.com/markp8183/status/1546936037112393728
               | 
               | EDIT: To give a more clear example. It took XL-Calibur a
               | little more then 30 hour to travel from Hudson Bay to
               | Yellowknife. That is not much shorter then some distance
               | between Montana and Huron
        
             | ianburrell wrote:
             | It sounded like they are hovering at altitude which is hard
             | to do. And they came from great distance. It would make
             | more sense if they were triangle shaped and flying. Also,
             | there was no balloon, they should be stealthed and not show
             | up on radar.
             | 
             | My suspicion is that the descriptions have been of the
             | payloads. They sound like balloon payloads. Maybe the
             | balloon is low visibility. But doesn't explain why
             | government doesn't mention balloons.
             | 
             | The outside possibility that isn't aliens is anti-gravity.
             | I would strange that anyone who developed anti-gravity
             | would keep secret and use it like this.
        
       | hammock wrote:
       | Have we shot anything down over CONUS since early on in the Cold
       | War?
        
         | intrasight wrote:
         | I read not since WWII
        
       | todd3834 wrote:
       | I sure hope this isn't a distraction to get us to look up while
       | something goes down under the sea.
        
         | version_five wrote:
         | Not to be conspiratorial, but if it is an intentional
         | distraction, the balance of probabilities favors the
         | misdirection coming from the US (whether media, politicians,
         | etc). This still feels like a case of seeing more because we've
         | been told to pay attention to it, vs a new phenomenon. Let's
         | see
        
           | mach1ne wrote:
           | Yes, the timing with the Chinese weather balloon was no
           | coincidence. Either policy changed or radars were
           | recalibrated.
        
       | HL33tibCe7 wrote:
       | The US Senator for Michigan reports that the object was
       | "octagonal" and flying at 20,000ft:
       | https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1624888630912188419?s=46&...
        
         | ianburrell wrote:
         | I've stopped trusting when politician tweets describe the
         | objects. They are getting the details second-hand if not more
         | and seem to be relaying it immediately. Press conferences at
         | least have some time to collect accounts and organize them. We
         | also don't know who is providing the details; I would trust the
         | F-22 pilot.
         | 
         | Like this could mean that there was only octagonal object, the
         | balloon was octagonal, or the payload was octagonal. The latter
         | seems the most plausible. It is hard to tell if this is more
         | balloons or something really weird.
        
       | akmarinov wrote:
       | Have aliens invaded and we just don't know about it, the
       | government holding them off lowkey?
       | 
       | Edit: Now China's shooting them down!
       | https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/02/12/china-says...
        
         | oneoff786 wrote:
         | People need to understand that if you're being attacked by a
         | FTL capable alien invader, you are so incredibly f**ed that it
         | just does not matter.
         | 
         | People don't write popular sci fi novels about realistic alien
         | invasions because they would be so utterly one sided and brief
         | that it simply wouldn't make a good story.
        
           | GalenErso wrote:
           | I liked Titan A.E.'s take on that. An alien race (the Drej)
           | attack and destroy the Earth and the Moon, while
           | simultaneously attacking evacuation shuttles. Most of
           | humanity is wiped out in mere minutes. No silver lining. No
           | happy ending at this stage. What's left of humanity is slowly
           | dying in drifter colonies scattered around the galaxy. It
           | takes a miracle, the Titan project, for humanity to be given
           | a new hope again.
        
         | bmitc wrote:
         | That's a great way to distract.
        
         | scruple wrote:
         | Maybe some von Neumann probes have wandered into our solar
         | system.
        
         | codenesium wrote:
         | An undersea civilization is exploring the air world.
        
           | iancmceachern wrote:
           | It's the Dolphins. So long and thanks for all the fish!
        
             | billiallards wrote:
             | They _are_ cylindrical, grey, without apparent means of
             | aerial propulsion, and prone to interfering with ultrasonic
             | sensors...
             | 
             | Most dolphins are smaller than a compact car, but I bet
             | they would break apart upon impact with a frozen sea after
             | dropping out of the sky. This might be the correct answer.
        
           | madspindel wrote:
           | https://youtu.be/dfPfPB601hw
        
         | hnthrowaway0315 wrote:
         | Didn't expect to dive into xcom timeline right now...do I need
         | to buy some guns to defend against aliens? I mean at least you
         | can hurt them by guns in the game.
        
         | HL33tibCe7 wrote:
         | > That balloon's journey set off a huge debate within the U.S.
         | about why it wasn't shot down earlier, with Republicans arguing
         | President Donald Trump never would've allowed such a thing to
         | happen. Except that it did, many times, including over
         | sensitive military facilities in Virginia and California.
         | 
         | There's something hilarious about the idea that, if this was
         | the start of an alien invasion, our journalists and politicians
         | started off the coverage not being curious about what on Earth
         | these objects were, but instead slinging political slime at
         | each other
        
         | jansan wrote:
         | Reagan said in his speach in fron of the United Nations: "Or
         | differences would vanish, if we were facing an alien threat
         | from outside this world"
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAAHgAuti84
         | 
         | Also, in the Watchman comic the world is made believe in an
         | alien invasion to bring world peace (the ending is different in
         | the move).
         | 
         | So let's hope that if these are (real of fake) aliens, the
         | result will be a more peaceful world.
        
         | luxuryballs wrote:
         | even better, it's staged!
         | https://www.dailymotion.com/video/xx2ris
        
         | gsatic wrote:
         | People have forgotten 20 years ago the US intercepted Iraqi
         | aluminium tubes. They are fully capable of detecting what ever
         | they want to imagine. And these days American imagination is
         | purely restricted to what collects Likes and upvotes.
        
       | anigbrowl wrote:
       | An unnamed congressional aide claims the object was shaped 'like
       | an octagon.' Sounds like BS, but you'd like to think the Wall
       | Street Journal has _some_ capacity to to identify and filter
       | quality sources.
       | 
       | https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-flying-objects-shot-down...
        
         | HL33tibCe7 wrote:
         | This is being widely reported, and Rep Bergman also said this
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | nemo44x wrote:
       | So I'm guessing we recently upgraded or reconfigured some
       | software and now we are seeing a lot of things that have been
       | there but we didn't detect. Or something finally crossed a line
       | and the enemy, which did not know we were watching was going to
       | find out so it's all being cleaned up now.
        
         | cududa wrote:
         | NORAD said after the last balloon they modeled it and
         | recalibrated their signal filtering to lower the thresholds
         | (full transparency: I know what those words mean when string
         | together, but I'm no expert and have 0 functional knowledge of
         | what that means wrt NORAD).
         | 
         | Now that they've said that, I'm actually more concerned and it
         | raises more questions than it answers. Perspective of some
         | retired NORAD employee would be very welcome
        
       | irthomasthomas wrote:
       | "The American people don't need classified details, just that
       | they're safe. That's it."
        
         | akimball wrote:
         | That's not how democracy works. That's how sheep farming works.
        
           | cududa wrote:
           | No, that's called immature ideological purity. Like it or
           | not, state secrets are a necessary function of any
           | civilization.
        
             | CamperBob2 wrote:
             | If you don't tell people the truth about something like
             | this, they will cheerfully make something up and accept it
             | as truth.
             | 
             | That's not a "necessary function of any civilization,"
             | that's dereliction of duty to the people who elected the
             | leaders.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | And if you do tell the truth your enemy has a nice cheap
               | information gathering network at their disposal. Hell,
               | they'll likely just make up their own bullshit and post
               | it online anyway and say our government is lying.
        
               | pohl wrote:
               | People do that when you _do tell them the truth_.
        
             | pyuser583 wrote:
             | I'm pretty sure Dana Scully said the same thing in one of
             | the early seasons of X-Files.
        
         | preisschild wrote:
         | Just waiting for the "My fellow Americans, we have made contact
         | with extraterrestrials" speech from Biden
        
       | paganel wrote:
       | This balloons war is getting real funny from half away around the
       | globe.
       | 
       | I think that the US Air Force had been feeling a little left
       | aside when it comes to the whole war thing, what with all the
       | discussion about tanks and artillery and related stuff, this is
       | the perfect opportunity for them to show that they're worth all
       | the money the US taxpayer is throwing at them.
        
       | thereisnospork wrote:
       | If there are this many (chinese?) balloons over the US, I'd wager
       | there are a fair few over the rest of the world, e.g. Europe. Tip
       | of the iceberg imo.
        
       | kkielhofner wrote:
       | Random question - anyone know how a sidewinder missile hits these
       | objects (whatever they are)? My missile knowledge is non-existent
       | but movies show me it has something to do with heat signature -
       | which these don't seem to have.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | giantrobot wrote:
         | The missiles seek and track based on heat _differences_. To an
         | IR sensor the sky is typically pretty  "cold" and just about
         | anything in the sky is relatively "hot". Once the missile is
         | locked onto the relatively hot signature against the cold
         | background the sensor stares at it and adjusts the missile's
         | trajectory to intercept it (and blow up).
         | 
         | Countermeasures like flares try to trick a missile's sensor
         | into thinking the hot object it was staring at was the flare
         | going that way and not the maneuvering aircraft going the other
         | way. Modern IR tracking missiles try to stay locked on the
         | object by ignoring hotter or cooler objects that might end up
         | in its view.
        
           | jandrewrogers wrote:
           | Some modern imaging-based guidance packages for anti-aircraft
           | missiles use multiple spectra to defeat countermeasures like
           | flares. While a flare and a plane sometimes look similar in
           | IR, they are easy to discriminate in the UV spectrum.
        
           | azalemeth wrote:
           | At FL400+, anything not the earth is basically space - if you
           | point an IR camera in the sky outwards, it really does look
           | very cold as the pressure is basically zero and scattered IR
           | photons are few and far between. Objects that are not vacuum
           | have a signature in the IR - both a black-body temperature
           | (which, even at ~ -55 oC, is a hell of a lot higher than
           | single-digit kelvin...) and possibly the opportunity to
           | reflect any incident light.
        
         | rocket_surgeron wrote:
         | Not much is known of the AIM-9X but it is probably similar to
         | the AIM-9L.
         | 
         | The AIM-9L doesn't lock on to the hottest thing, it takes an IR
         | picture of the scene and follows the targeted "blob" in the
         | image that's generated. Additionally it has laser proximity
         | fusing so it knows when it is close to the shape it is
         | tracking. By not simply picking the hottest thing in a scene
         | you can't hide in front of the sun anymore, and the
         | effectiveness of flares is reduced.
         | 
         | The only thing needed to generate a "blob" good enough to
         | target is sufficient DT between the scene and the targeted
         | object.
         | 
         | The objects, and they have been curiously consistent with
         | calling them "objects", definitely have sufficient DT compared
         | to the background sky if they are made of any solid material
         | that has been exposed to sunlight for any period of time.
        
           | nickpeterson wrote:
           | Not to sound like a Redditor, but this username checks out.
        
         | zmanian wrote:
         | The AIM-9X is infrared imaging based rather than heat signature
         | based. The pilot resolves that contrast between the object and
         | sky before firing the missile and missile targets the object
         | based on the image.
        
           | bmitc wrote:
           | > The AIM-9X is infrared imaging based rather than heat
           | signature based.
           | 
           | Isn't heat detected by infrared? What's the difference?
        
             | Sharlin wrote:
             | Cloudless sky is cold, and at 30,000 feet _extremely_ cold.
             | Anything not-sky is going to contrast against the sky, even
             | if it has no internal heat source (and remember: if it has
             | electric things in it, it produces heat).
        
             | hammock wrote:
             | Yes warm bodies put off infrared, but so does the sun, and
             | the suns IR rays are reflected by objects just as they are
             | in the visible range. These reflections used for imaging
        
           | lost_tourist wrote:
           | Do you know what sets it off? Seems like it wouldn't be from
           | impact as these balloon materials couldn't be comparable to
           | say hitting another plane, right?
        
             | justin66 wrote:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximity_fuze
        
             | r00fus wrote:
             | These payloads are duds - all you need to do is to pierce
             | the balloon.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | A little research on the Canadian Ballon shootdown a
               | number of years back show that isn't exactly the case. A
               | larger balloon was shot with a (20mm I believe) cannon
               | and continued to float a long distance.
        
             | jandrewrogers wrote:
             | All modern missiles use a proximity fuse that selects the
             | optimum position relative to the target to detonate, it
             | isn't based on contact. One thing to consider is that the
             | warhead is not in the nose -- that is where the sensors are
             | -- but further back on the missile. These warheads often us
             | an annular (ring-like) blast pattern, hence why positioning
             | and orientation relative to the target at detonation time
             | is important to maximize damage.
        
             | dharmab wrote:
             | The AIM-9X uses an IR proximity fuse.
        
       | canadiantim wrote:
       | From Huron in we have to demand answers
        
         | nobaddays wrote:
         | Please leave sir
        
         | kQq9oHeAz6wLLS wrote:
         | All puns aside, we've been demanding answers since they let the
         | first one drift across North America. I'm not holding my breath
         | on getting those answers, though.
        
       | Overtonwindow wrote:
       | All of a sudden balloons everywhere. Were they always there, and
       | people are just now noticing it, or is this something new?
        
         | jacquesm wrote:
         | Likely the former because NORAD has made some statements about
         | disabling filters on their radar data processing software that
         | would have previously classified these as noise, effectively
         | rendering them invisible.
         | 
         | Probably the best stealth there is: to be classed as noise.
        
         | SkyPuncher wrote:
         | I suspect these have always been here.
         | 
         | In fact, the NOAA launches dozens of weather balloons daily.
         | 
         | Seems like recent attention is causing a bit of an over
         | correction.
        
       | kranke155 wrote:
       | Ok so it's either a massive foreign program or UFOs.
        
         | cafard wrote:
         | Well, they are unidentified.
        
           | nanidin wrote:
           | And they seem to be sent by aliens.
        
         | awb wrote:
         | Seems like there could be a multitude of possibilities.
        
           | kranke155 wrote:
           | The thing is the quantity is getting so high it's a question
           | of who would have the capability.
        
         | gleenn wrote:
         | There has been speculation that China is testing our response.
         | It seems unclear what the purpose of hovering over Montana is.
         | Maybe they are actually testing something they'd like to attack
         | or monitor Taiwan with and the way to test in an obfuscated
         | manner is releasing them over the US to get the response
         | without triggering the idea that they are preparing for
         | another, real target.
        
           | FleurBouquet wrote:
           | [dead]
        
         | nyokodo wrote:
         | You overcome vast interstellar distances with a balloon and
         | then sit there while primitive missiles blow you up?
        
           | nemo44x wrote:
           | Maybe they had no idea that was a thing. A super advanced
           | species that either never considered it or was phased out so
           | long ago the knowledge was lost. They're just up there
           | watching and freaking out a bit.
        
           | jmknoll wrote:
           | As we've seen with our space probes, its difficult enough to
           | land something on another planet and have it survive,
           | nevermind equipping it with any offensive or defensive
           | capabilities. Maybe these aliens are in the same place. They
           | can get the balloon here, but just barely, and they're
           | watching in dismay as their work get dismantled.
        
             | oneoff786 wrote:
             | Utter nonsense. This would be a FTL alien civ. A
             | civilization with many orders of magnitude more energy
             | available. And manufacturing capabilities. And AI. And many
             | other things. They're not gonna send a stupid balloon.
             | They're not going to care about a balloon. It's
             | inconceivable that a civ could get here and not also have
             | the ability to manufacture such basic technology on an
             | enormous scale very easily.
        
           | spaceman_2020 wrote:
           | To be fair, human beings have been to space as well and
           | routinely get trounced by something as primitive as a
           | mosquito bite.
           | 
           | Maybe the UFOs were built to withstand alpha-gamma-laser-
           | magma-pulse rays, not our primitive projectile based
           | weaponry!
        
           | cududa wrote:
           | You know when you're playing with a little kid and they fake
           | punch you, and you dramatically go flying across the room and
           | they laugh, they're proud of themselves, and you laugh? Yeah
           | the aliens playing that game with us right now.
        
           | binarymax wrote:
           | "The Asgard would never invent a weapon that propels small
           | weights of iron and carbon alloys, by igniting a powder of
           | potassium nitrate, charcoal and sulfur."
           | 
           | --Thor, Stargate SG-1, "Small Victories"
        
           | dumbaccount123 wrote:
           | Its not a balloon though, and for all we could know they put
           | up a fight and the US is keeping it classified.
        
           | sslayer wrote:
           | It seems inevitable that eventually someone in a different
           | dimension would find a way to start crossing dimensions, and
           | start a recon program to report back on "good" dimensions.
        
         | Waterluvian wrote:
         | They are UFOs. But the normal kind. Not the little green men
         | X-Files kind.
        
       | labster wrote:
       | I was not expecting the 99 Luftballoons song to happen so
       | literally. This is definitely the darkest timeline.
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | 99 knights of the air
         | 
         | Ride super high-tech jet fighters
         | 
         | Everyone's a superhero
         | 
         | Everyone's a Captain Kirk
         | 
         | With orders to identify
         | 
         | To clarify and classify
         | 
         | Scrambling the summer sky
         | 
         | 99 red balloons go by
         | 
         | Only got the season wrong ...
        
       | 0xDEF wrote:
       | CSI-like shows have spread the misconception that spy satellites
       | can see human face sized objects in real-time. But there are
       | certain physical limits that makes that unlikely to be done from
       | space several hundreds of kilometers above the surface.
       | 
       | That is why spy satellites at much lower altitudes can be useful
       | to spy on other countries. However anything below 100 km is
       | considered an intrusion into the sovereign airspace of a country.
        
       | giantg2 wrote:
       | Imagine if you launch a balloon for say $10k so that your
       | adversary has to spend $400k on a missile plus $70k x number of
       | planes x hours in flight. And now do it multiple times per week.
       | Seems like a decent strategy.
        
         | lolc wrote:
         | It's a decent strategy until you realize you're just providing
         | target practice on sorties the enemy would fly anyway. Shooting
         | one missile a day is not affecting that budget. And pilots need
         | constant training.
        
         | elorant wrote:
         | A balloon that requires a missile to be brought down has to be
         | really big, like soccer field big. In which case it won't cost
         | just $10k.
        
         | Rebelgecko wrote:
         | Does that 70k per plane per hour actually cost an additional
         | 70k? If it becomes frequent enough I imagine they could start
         | shooting down balloons in lieu of their regular training
         | missions. Same for the missiles.
        
         | oneoff786 wrote:
         | Until the frequency of it escalates into a damaging economic
         | conflict.
        
       | hammock wrote:
       | Have we shot anything down over CONUS since early on in the Cold
       | War?
        
       | okasaki wrote:
       | Great distraction from internal problems.
        
         | he0001 wrote:
         | Which are?
        
           | throwayyy479087 wrote:
           | Ohio
        
             | gambiting wrote:
             | What's happening in Ohio? As non-american I have no idea.
        
               | avtar wrote:
               | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/11/ohio-
               | train-d...
        
         | was_a_dev wrote:
         | Did someone say Ohio?
        
       | ttul wrote:
       | This time, an F-16 sufficed.
        
         | Redoubts wrote:
         | Shame they can't just gun them down with a tucano. This all
         | seems like a large waste of money.
        
           | SkyPuncher wrote:
           | Besides the missile, these pilots need hours anyways.
           | Unlikely to be adding significant expense since this can
           | replace hours elsewhere.
        
           | ttul wrote:
           | I don't understand these "missiles cost too much" budget
           | arguments. Defense costs hundreds of billions annually. The
           | cost of the people who orchestrate the firing of that
           | munition vastly outweighs the cost of the munition.
        
           | KerrAvon wrote:
           | Have you ever seen the budget for the department of defense?
           | Whatever they're doing here is less than the pocket change
           | they lose in the Pentagon seat cushions.
        
             | Turing_Machine wrote:
             | Also, pilots generally need to fire a certain number of
             | missiles every year just to stay in training. At least this
             | saves the additional cost of a drone (the usual target for
             | training missions, I think).
        
       | squarefoot wrote:
       | One missing information about all other objects after the 1st
       | balloon is their nature and speed. Why should they keep this
       | information classified? It's like the objects were a lot more
       | complex than a balloon (propelled drones?), with varying attitude
       | and speed and telling what they were doing when they were
       | detected would reveal what they were doing while still
       | undetected, that is, giving information on military capabilities
       | to the Chinese. Pure speculation on my part of course, still I'm
       | puzzled by all this secrecy.
        
         | groffee wrote:
         | Why would you be puzzled?
         | 
         | Any information given to the public (you) will also seen by the
         | enemy (whoever it is)
         | 
         | It's like when America used to go on television during the
         | Iraq/Afghanistan wars and announce where they were going to do
         | surprise attacks and then get butthurt when they got wiped out.
        
       | ironyman wrote:
       | archive: https://archive.is/qRA3F
        
       | erentz wrote:
       | Couple of interesting twitter threads on this from Tyler (The
       | Drive). He suggests this has been coming/happening for some time.
       | 
       | https://twitter.com/aviation_intel/status/162414986417840128...
       | 
       | Also that we are seeing a lot more now because we have turned
       | down/off the filters on the radars. Which means also we can
       | expect a lot more false positives.
       | 
       | https://twitter.com/aviation_intel/status/162461466198661120...
        
         | georgeg23 wrote:
         | The Drive also covered the SpaceX stuff which recently turned
         | into StarShield
         | 
         | https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/23733/spacex-exec-says...
        
         | heavyset_go wrote:
         | I figure we're hearing about it to quell any fear or paranoia
         | about domestic airspace being entered now that it's a well-
         | known thing.
        
         | Guthur wrote:
         | I'd be very surprised if this is new.
         | 
         | The only new aspect is that you are being told about it. Which
         | is unfortunately probably not a good sign. At best it will be
         | only used to justify the purchase of some expensive "hi tech"
         | boondoggle to counter these... balloons.
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | > Which means also we can expect a lot more false positives.
         | 
         | This may be true, but it's awful hard to get visual
         | confirmation and then shoot down a false positive.
        
         | throwawaycities wrote:
         | > Which means also we can expect a lot more false positives.
         | 
         | Perhaps we can, but clearly we can expect to find actual UAVs
         | corresponding to these radar signals.
         | 
         | If these UAVs that have been shot down were domestic research
         | balloons or some other aircraft exempt from FAA regulation,
         | then we can expect a party to come forward and publicly
         | acknowledge ownership/control of the UAV.
         | 
         | However, based on the descriptions of the object over Alaska it
         | seems very likely there are indeed unmanned drones being
         | operated by foreign governments and not domestic
         | weather/research balloons or FAA compliant unregistered
         | domestic aircraft.
        
           | janoc wrote:
           | >and not domestic weather/research balloons ...
           | 
           | Keep in mind that not only US or Canada launches weather
           | balloons. These things are well capable of flying huge
           | distances, including across the oceans. There has been one
           | launched by amateur radio operators a few years ago that has
           | circumnavigated the globe - and that's not at all a rare
           | feat.
           | 
           | See e.g.:
           | 
           | https://qrp-labs.com/circumnavigators.html
           | 
           | So no need to go all conspirationalist about "unmanned drones
           | operated by foreign governments" just yet. Especially given
           | the distances and altitudes these things were found flying at
           | - a heavier than air device would need a ton of fuel and
           | energy to fly that high and that far, so a "drone" that at
           | the same time doesn't look like an aircraft is rather
           | unlikely.
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | wizeman wrote:
       | We'll never know the weather again...
        
       | tarsinge wrote:
       | Do we know why they are shot down? How do we know there is no
       | dangerous material in them (e.g. radioactive)?
        
         | lazide wrote:
         | It's over some of the most remote land anywhere in the world,
         | and it would be coming down somewhere anyway.
         | 
         | Even if it was full of plutonium, there probably is no better
         | place for it to come down.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > It's over some of the most remote land anywhere in the
           | world,
           | 
           | Lake Huron is neither particularly remote (from, say,
           | civilization) nor is it land.
        
         | thaurelia wrote:
         | They're following the balloons with U-2 (among other things, I
         | assume) for some time before shooting down.
        
         | dragonwriter wrote:
         | > Do we know why they are shot down?
         | 
         | Because they are potential hazards and threats.
         | 
         | > How do we know there is no dangerous material in them (e.g.
         | radioactive)?
         | 
         | Any material falling from a high altitude is dangerous, which
         | figures into decisions about where and when to shoot them down.
         | But if someone is floating hazardous payloads without
         | permission and notice over your airspace, you probably don't
         | want to give them the choice of whether and when they come
         | down....
        
         | connordoner wrote:
         | Good question. I'd be interested to know too.
        
       | pyuser583 wrote:
       | Time to rewatch X-Files.
        
       | hoppyhoppy2 wrote:
       | Dupe of https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34766703
        
         | HL33tibCe7 wrote:
         | Which has been taken off the front page remarkably quickly,
         | given its large number of votes in a short time.
         | 
         | Perhaps there's some system where downvotes encourage a post to
         | be taken off the front page quicker. But I suspect moderator
         | involvement. Which is misguided if so: people will simply post
         | dupes and continue to upvote them. Thus, the story is still on
         | the front-page, but in a fragmented manner.
        
           | dang wrote:
           | It set off the flamewar detector. Moderators didn't touch it.
           | 
           | Normally we'd merge the comments into the earlier post, but
           | since this article has more information, I'll merge them
           | hither instead.
        
           | antihipocrat wrote:
           | Until we get some more information about what these are, it
           | just invites wild speculation.
           | 
           | Even just an image of the objects would help, but at the
           | moment we have nothing and there is not much opportunity to
           | provide insightful comments.
        
             | mach1ne wrote:
             | But it's surprising just how much information we do have.
             | What reason did the military have (both US and Canadian) to
             | leak info about the shape of the objects?
        
       | Ancalagon wrote:
       | Why are there no photos of any of these except the original
       | Chinese balloon?
        
         | llacb47 wrote:
         | Well, two were over remote parts of Alaska. And this one just
         | happened like an hour ago, so maybe pics will come out from
         | people on the ground. In any case, the best pics from the first
         | one over Montana were shot with telephoto lenses, so it's not
         | like anybody with a phone can snap a close up shot
        
           | busyant wrote:
           | also... may be currently difficult to find them in northern
           | alska / canada. not much daylight.
        
         | npnpnp wrote:
         | They're probably being targeted before getting in range of
         | media cameras, and are likely classified until declassified. I
         | would doubt if we see another one over populated areas anytime
         | soon. I would also bet these start getting shot down as they
         | enter the ADIZ.
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | The original ballon was large enough to be noticed and
         | photographed by civilians on the ground.
        
           | cududa wrote:
           | Isn't it a little TOO convenient that no civilians were out
           | on Lake Huron in the middle of winter under the objects
           | flight path to take a picture?
           | 
           | (/s, if that was necessary to clarify)
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | I'm suspecting the same aliens what sank the Edmund
             | Fitzgerald myself (/s)
        
             | throwayyy479087 wrote:
             | To explain to the rest of the class - right now Huron is a
             | wind-whipped, cold, miserable place to be. It's not
             | surprising Johnny Fisherman isn't out these days.
        
         | pueblito wrote:
         | Information is being selectively withheld to manipulate public
         | opinion, and legacy media outlets are cooperating because
         | that's what they exist to do - amplify on demand.
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | While the government will classify their information thinking
           | the media has it but isn't posting it is really just dumb. If
           | any member of the public had it, it would have spread across
           | Twitter/tictok like wildfire.
        
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