[HN Gopher] Show HN: Groundhog-day.com - structured groundhog data
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       Show HN: Groundhog-day.com - structured groundhog data
        
       Over the last year, I've worked on aggregating Groundhog data,
       including predictions, location, and a cute photo.  Welcome to
       GROUNDHOG-DAY.com: The clean and breathable, machine-readable, all-
       regional data source for Groundhog Day forecasts. Find your fave
       groundhog, peruse past predictions, or trek the continent-wide
       Groundhog Map.  Includes enterprise-grade API for corporate use
       cases.
        
       Author : pcraig3
       Score  : 69 points
       Date   : 2023-02-02 17:53 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (groundhog-day.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (groundhog-day.com)
        
       | passwordoops wrote:
       | Really nice! Next level would be to see correctness of the
       | prediction. I guess something like onset of 5 or 7-day moving
       | average temperature above freezing for each locale
        
       | leipert wrote:
       | Great work: I think this is missing some data crunching on past
       | predictions. Were the predictions correct or not?
        
         | pcraig3 wrote:
         | Accuracy data is basically impossible to get. You have to get
         | weather data year by year for different regions of the country
         | and then compare them to historical ranges. It will basically
         | mean 10x the work I've done already. It's open-source though,
         | so it could be that someone wants to collaborate with me in
         | future :D
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | Made my own map:                   brew install datasette sqlite-
       | utils              curl 'https://groundhog-
       | day.com/api/v1/predictions?year=2023' | \           jq
       | .predictions | \           sqlite-utils insert day.db groundhogs
       | - --flatten              sqlite-utils convert day.db groundhogs \
       | groundhog_coordinates --multi 'return {           "latitude":
       | value.split(",")[0],           "longitude": value.split(",")[1]
       | }'              datasette install datasette-cluster-map
       | datasette day.db
       | 
       | Screenshot of the map here:
       | https://fedi.simonwillison.net/@simon/109796889732947452
       | 
       | sqlite-utils docs here: https://sqlite-
       | utils.datasette.io/en/stable/cli.html
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | ankaAr wrote:
       | Well well well, that is what I call a service.
       | 
       | There is an API for this extremely useful data?
        
         | pcraig3 wrote:
         | Absolutely: https://groundhog-day.com/api
        
       | w-ll wrote:
       | I didn't know there were multiple groundhogs. Very eclectic idea.
        
         | pcraig3 wrote:
         | I didn't know there were so many, and I also didn't know that
         | so many of them aren't real groundhogs.
        
         | chungy wrote:
         | Same here, I mostly know about the event because of the Bill
         | Murray movie.
        
       | johnfn wrote:
       | Remarkable how in the 1910s and 1920s we had uninterrupted
       | stretches of extra winters decades in a row, but now early spring
       | dominates. Clear evidence of global warming.
        
         | pcraig3 wrote:
         | That's a huge insight to take away. Nevertheless, we still have
         | climate-denier groundhogs consistently predicting winter and
         | being wrong about it ( _cough Phil cough_ ).
         | 
         | Hopefully, this site helps shine a light on these unscientific
         | groundhogs.
        
       | beardog wrote:
       | Seems long winters being the norm died in the 80s
        
         | pcraig3 wrote:
         | I have a pet theory on this.
         | 
         | I think, as a local councillor/politician, you show up to a
         | Groundhog Day event and there are like 50 people there hoping
         | you say it's gonna be spring soon, and so you just tell them
         | that it will be.
         | 
         | However, it doesn't seem to be holding for this year, where
         | most have said longer winter so far: https://groundhog-
         | day.com/predictions/2023
        
       | eigenrick wrote:
       | I'm going to need to see success rating for each groundhog. How
       | often do they correctly predict the weather?
       | 
       | Also how often did their right or wrong predictions contradict
       | the majority?
        
         | pcraig3 wrote:
         | > How often do they correctly predict the weather?
         | 
         | I mentioned this in another comment, but accuracy data is
         | basically impossible to get. You have to get weather data year
         | by year for different regions of the country and then compare
         | them to historical ranges. Means a pretty huge amount of
         | trawling through data, not a lot of payoff.
         | 
         | > Also how often did their right or wrong predictions
         | contradict the majority?
         | 
         | This one, you can get a little more easily. Check out the
         | predictions page to see them grouped by year:
         | https://groundhog-day.com/predictions
         | 
         | If you are looking up a specific groundhog, you can see how
         | often they align/differ from the plurality.
        
       | well_actulily wrote:
       | This is great, but I wish I could filter out all the plush
       | animals.
        
         | pcraig3 wrote:
         | Interesting point, I've got a page up that is the reverse of
         | that here: https://groundhog-day.com/alternative-groundhogs
         | 
         | On the other hand, there is an API as well, so you can build a
         | custom groundhog dashboard if you like.
        
       | MarcScott wrote:
       | One groundhog won't be reporting in -
       | https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/fred-la-marmotte-die...
        
         | dfxm12 wrote:
         | This happened last year in NJ:
         | https://www.nj.com/news/2022/01/njs-weather-predicting-groun...
         | 
         | The organizers claimed they had a replacement lined up for
         | today, but blame an unnamed state statue for not actually being
         | able to use them: https://www.nj.com/news/2023/01/groundhog-
         | day-to-be-without-...
        
           | avarun wrote:
           | note for others confused by "statue", the organizers are
           | blaming an unspecified state _statute_ for not being able to
           | use their new groundhog
        
         | binarymax wrote:
         | When Chekhov saw the long winter, he saw a winter bleak and
         | dark and bereft of hope. Yet we know that winter is just
         | another step in the cycle of life.
         | 
         | RIP Fred la marmotte
        
       | capableweb wrote:
       | Does groundhogs not exists outside of North America (or more
       | specifically, Canada and the US) or is the data just harder to
       | gather?
        
         | Freak_NL wrote:
         | Not naturally no, according to Wikipedia. Plenty of other
         | marmots though (like Murmeltiere in the European Alps),
         | although I don't think those can predict the seasons.
        
         | pcraig3 wrote:
         | Nobody else seems to do this outside of the US and Canada.
        
       | binarymax wrote:
       | Really nice!
       | 
       | I'm confused though. The placard says 'early spring' for 2023,
       | but clicking on it, the split is 26/29 early spring vs long
       | winter. Am I reading this wrong or is the placard wrong?
        
         | pcraig3 wrote:
         | You, sir, have identified a bug. Just pushed an update to fix
         | this.
         | 
         | If you look at the past 3 years, they have all been "early
         | spring": https://groundhog-day.com/predictions
         | 
         | So the logic that was there didn't actually work properly, but
         | I never noticed it before.
        
       | jay-barronville wrote:
       | This topic isn't something I care about, but I did want to say,
       | great work on the design -- I have a thing for minimalist designs
       | like this.
        
         | pcraig3 wrote:
         | Thanks! It was a fun project for sure: no ads and nobody trying
         | to get me to make it look more conventional.
        
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       (page generated 2023-02-02 23:00 UTC)