[HN Gopher] The Decision Book: Fifty models for strategic thinki...
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The Decision Book: Fifty models for strategic thinking (2019)
Author : walterbell
Score : 148 points
Date : 2023-01-28 08:04 UTC (3 days ago)
(HTM) web link (medium.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (medium.com)
| AstixAndBelix wrote:
| 50???
|
| this man doesn't seem to be aware of decision fatigue
| wiz21c wrote:
| FTA: The rightness of a decision will vary with time, what seems
| wrong today may in the future seem to have been the right
| decision
|
| ah ah ah. That's the easy case. Things get into problems when
| what sounded right yesterday now feels completely wrong.
|
| There are so many variables and people are not completely dumb so
| that usually, any decision will do. The trick is to be able to
| convince others that you are right (and that happens mostly in an
| irrational space); before and after the decision is/was taken...
| Swizec wrote:
| Like when I sold 2 BTC at the first peak in ~2013. Oops.
|
| BUT that $1200 represented a 400% gain, paid my rent (which I
| was short for), and it took almost 5 years for bitcoin to come
| back to the same value. Would it have been better to wait until
| 2021? Yes. Was it a bad decision? Not at all.
| troebr wrote:
| I don't play poker, but it's interesting there that the right
| play (because sound statistically) can make you lose the
| game. Over time a player that makes better decisions will
| come out on top.
|
| It makes me think sometimes about how the right decision can
| still end up exploding in your face: it was the best decision
| with the information at your disposal at the time.
| Swizec wrote:
| > the right decision can still end up exploding in your
| face
|
| Nassim Taleb talks about this a lot - never risk ruin.
|
| Because yes, _on average_ it works out in the long run, but
| _you_ are not average, _you_ have 1 playthrough. Before you
| can win, you have to survive.
| seanhunter wrote:
| Risk of ruin doesn't apply in poker decision-making
| except in the "metagame" (ie which stakes you play and
| how much you actually put on the table etc).
|
| In hands themselves poker is played for "table stakes"
| (ie in a given hand you can only lose the chips that are
| in front of you at the beginning of that hand). Because
| of the table stakes rule, avoiding risk of ruin in poker
| is literally as simple as keeping some money as cash and
| not putting it on the table.
|
| The thing that happens in movies where someone makes a
| bet their opponent can't call so they throw the deeds to
| their house/title to their gold mine/keys to their car
| into the pot literally can't happen in poker. You can
| only bet what you have on the table at the beginning of
| the hand and if you call all-in (all those chips) you get
| to see the hand to conclusion regardless of what the
| opponent bet.
| fronterablog wrote:
| Oh, indeed.
|
| Annie Duke (professional poker player) had a great book on
| this called "Thinking in Bets."
|
| The main idea is that good decisions can create bad
| outcomes. And bad decisions can create good ones (because
| of luck).
|
| So she suggests making decisions by calculating expected
| value like a poker player. And separating the outcome from
| the quality of the decision.
| monksy wrote:
| Was this a bad decision or a good decision?
|
| If you didn't pay rent, how would that have influenced your
| future to where you're at today?
|
| 400% Gain is a lot. How often do you think that 400% gains
| come arround, and how would you feel if the evaluation today
| was -50%?
|
| I think the major lession here was: Have a backup reserve in
| which you can tap into to prevent from needing to liquidate
| higher risk assets.
| totetsu wrote:
| Oh I bought this book many years ago. Its a family members
| bookshelf somewhere.
| Swizec wrote:
| Got it as a present 4 to 5 years ago. It's been in my to-read
| pile ever since.
|
| Looks promising. But never quite enough to get started
| walterbell wrote:
| If these are too fluffy, here's an older (1305) mental model,
| https://socks-studio.com/2021/11/03/constructing-knowledge-t...
|
| _> Catalan polymath, Ramon Llull was the first person to
| conceive a device able to externalise the human mind. In his
| seminal opus, the Ars Magna, Llull conceived a series of figures
| that could replicate the mental ability to connect information in
| order to acquire knowledge. Thanks to these studies, he is
| considered a precursor of artificial intelligence research.
|
| > The Llullian figures, a series of instruments that organise and
| place concepts into relationships, exploit the ability of
| geometry to produce interconnections on two-dimensional, paper
| surfaces. They employ lines, concentric shapes, ladders and
| frames bearing a visual quality similar to that of architectural
| plans ... it revealed an intrinsic potential to work as a "logic
| machine", an instrument producing knowledge in different fields
| through multiple combinations of ideas. Llull constructed the
| very first demonstration that showed that human way of thinking
| could be imitated by a device._
| mooneater wrote:
| In those images I see: - complete graphs (the triangle
| matrices) - incomplete graphs (the circular ones with only some
| segments conntected)
|
| And those are excellent ways to visualize these types of
| objects.
|
| He built knowledge graphs.
| kindalikeright wrote:
| This reminds me of The Glass Bead Game by Hermann Hesse.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Glass_Bead_Game
|
| But also of this:
|
| https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-9752.1...
| ChildOfChaos wrote:
| I find models are great and all, but in the end to me it's just
| intellectual pornography, when it comes time to make choices, i
| don't have the mental capacity or brain bandwidth to start
| running through 50 different models that i once read about to try
| and figure out what is the best choice, that's just too
| exhausting.
| iamsanteri wrote:
| What's your favorite here?
| black_13 wrote:
| [dead]
| emehex wrote:
| I really didn't enjoy this book. Too fluffy for me.
|
| Better alternatives: The Model Thinker, or Algorithms to Live By!
| arnejenssen wrote:
| Agree. I felt i could have written it better myself.
| fronterablog wrote:
| Algorithms to Live By is a good book.
|
| But my favorite is Antifragile from Taleb.
| chrisweekly wrote:
| ATLB was a game-changer for me; highly recommended!
| MountainMan1312 wrote:
| Keeping knowledge behind a paywall is a crime against humanity.
| Here's a link to a free PDF of the book OP linked:
| https://archive.org/details/isbn_9781846683954
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(page generated 2023-01-31 23:01 UTC)