[HN Gopher] Why EVs Aren't a Climate Change Panacea
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       Why EVs Aren't a Climate Change Panacea
        
       Author : mfiguiere
       Score  : 70 points
       Date   : 2023-01-28 17:04 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (spectrum.ieee.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (spectrum.ieee.org)
        
       | tppiotrowski wrote:
       | Anytime I see the word "assume" in an article it feels like a
       | mechanism for subtly turning journalism into an op-ed.
        
         | amanaplanacanal wrote:
         | This article is explicitly an op-ed. Not sure what you were
         | expecting here.
        
       | osigurdson wrote:
       | I think any solution that involves things getting worse for
       | people is a non-starter. EVs will soon reach the point where it
       | makes no sense to purchase an ICE vehicle. That is the model to
       | shoot for - make the bad stuff obsolete. When the bad stuff is
       | obsolete already (WFO is a good example), lets do our best to
       | take advantage of it.
        
       | Zigurd wrote:
       | The article headline sets up a straw man. EVs do two important
       | things: take a diffuse source of CO2 and other pollutants, and
       | confine the problem to large-scale power plants. They also cut
       | smog in cities where people are most exposed to pollution.
       | 
       | Other commenters here have noted that small EVs like scooters are
       | an important part of electrifying transport. A lot of cities
       | would smell a lot better with electric scooters replacing gas
       | scooters.
        
       | afrodon wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | jeffrogers wrote:
       | Even factoring in probable range increases and advances in
       | charging tech, it will still be necessary to incrementally, if
       | not fully, charge EVs in public. One thing that doesn't seem to
       | occur to our elected officials... there is nowhere near enough
       | real estate to charge that many vehicles around town.
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | How hard would it be to put plugs onto street lights? Most
         | cities have wiring and the switch to LED bulbs means those
         | circuits have a lot more spare capacity than they used to.
        
           | longitudinal93 wrote:
           | New Westminster ( part of metro Vancouver) has been doing
           | exactly that:
           | 
           | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KaBLOGakGfg
        
         | timbit42 wrote:
         | Use existing parking spaces.
        
       | sillywalk wrote:
       | I feel like I'm missing something fundamental about the whole EV
       | thing.
       | 
       | 1. Produce/transport a bunch of electric vehicles, producing
       | massive emissions 2. ??? 3. Somehow billions of tonnes of carbon
       | get removed from the atmosphere
       | 
       | I fail to see how EVs do anything to actually do something about
       | the problem i.e. _REMOVE_ CO2 from the atmosphere.
        
         | imtringued wrote:
         | They are more energy efficient than ICE cars. An ICE car
         | produces a lot of waste heat in the process of trying to move
         | its wheels. That heat serves no purpose other than warming the
         | cab. This reduces CO2 emissions. Removing CO2 from the
         | atmosphere isn't cost effective without heavy government
         | subsidies. You need somewhere between 300EUR to 600EUR per ton
         | to capture CO2 with mature tech and 100EUR per ton assuming
         | some sort of breakthrough. How are you going to pay for this?
         | Are you going to introduce 300EUR CO2 taxes?
         | 
         | That would kill many industries and they would move abroad so
         | the first thing that needs to be done is to reduce emissions
         | because that costs less than 300EUR per ton.
         | 
         | A VW golf driven for 150k km produces 30 tons of CO2 which
         | would cost 9000EUR to capture just to break even. If you want
         | to get rid of 3 tons of CO2 for every car then let's round it
         | up to 10kEUR.
         | 
         | There are plenty of EVs in the 30kEUR price range that you can
         | buy today and there are other benefits that make EVs appealing
         | like lower energy costs, less maintenance and so on. So you
         | have this product on the market that doesn't need much
         | government support anymore and is well accepted in the market
         | and then you got this mega project that can only be started by
         | the government with massive taxation that makes everything more
         | expensive.
        
         | howtousethetime wrote:
         | The idea, as I understand it, is that: A. Before the 2038 date
         | the article suggests we must move to EV by, many/most cars will
         | need to be replaced. So, the suggestion isn't necessarily to
         | throw away good cars, as much as to replace them with an EV
         | when they are replaced. B. Currently the electricity used to
         | charge your EV may not be emission free, but someday it might
         | be. Whereas gasoline will never be emission free. And if
         | everyone has EV's already, then the benefit of cleaning the
         | grid becomes greater and easier to justify to a decisionmaker.
         | So while EVs wont solve the problem, it maybe could be said
         | that the problem cannot be solved without first switching to
         | EVs.
        
         | kristopolous wrote:
         | It's a giant decrease in aggregate emissions.
         | 
         | Some people say we should go all in on mass transit. Alright
         | cool. Suburbia doesn't work then. We're going to have to
         | massively build our way out of this any way you slice it.
         | 
         | EVs are an incremental improvement and that's how all goals are
         | reached.
         | 
         | Some people argue "What if you have a coal plant from the 1830s
         | and that's powering the EV and we compare it with some sleek
         | next gen hybrid" and we're all supposed to pretend that's not
         | just some classic bullshit artist play. The stupidity gives me
         | a headache. Why are we entertaining such transparent lies as if
         | they're being given in good faith?
        
           | sillywalk wrote:
           | The point I'm trying to make (or get) is that EVs (or solar
           | panels/wind turbines) don't actually do anything to actually
           | fix the root problem - too much CO2 in the atmosphere. All of
           | the emissions required to produce them in fact make the
           | problem worse.
           | 
           | Even if the world ICE vehicle fleet was magically converted
           | to EVs powered by carbon-free fusion power tomorrow, I fail
           | to see how this will actually lower the CO2 from 414ppm.
        
             | kristopolous wrote:
             | We are always limited to the best solutions we have on
             | hand.
             | 
             | Since there's more than one person in the world, we can
             | work on even better solutions while transitioning to the
             | best ones we have, simultaneously.
             | 
             | What's presented by saying EVs aren't the final solution is
             | the classic perfect being the enemy of the good dilemma
             | weaponized to encourage waiting, stalling, and inaction.
             | The actual material world impact of this type of policy is
             | just delay delay delay as we sow in seeds of uncertainty to
             | putz around without actually doing something.
             | 
             | This has literally been the oil playbook for decades. It's
             | the same thing.
             | 
             | It manifests in many ways. For instance there is a leftist
             | tech skeptic movement against electric vehicles that in
             | practice is just reactionary conservatism. They use the
             | classic Ralph Nader play to falsely claim that EVs catch
             | fire more than ICE vehicles, focus on the egregious labor
             | issues at EV plants and other classic tropes while
             | simultaneously proffering some imaginary solution of
             | getting rid of single family homes, suburbia and radically
             | transform how people live overnight into a marvelous
             | network of high speed rail by I assume, an actual magic
             | wand.
             | 
             | This is the same tactic tobacco companies used: "4 out of 5
             | doctors (who smoke) prefer brand X". Just like this
             | statement ignores that most doctors don't smoke, the
             | sensationalization of Tesla ignores all of the problems of
             | the rest of the industry or that there's many fine
             | offerings of electric vehicles from other vendors. It's a
             | wildly misinformed caricature.
             | 
             | In practice it produces the same stalling outcome -
             | delaying the transition even more.
             | 
             | On the WSJ conservative end there's articles where someone
             | rents say a $180,000 Lucid Air, drives like a maniac, goes
             | to the most expensive charging options and then compares
             | the vehicle with a used Toyota Prius to demonstrate how
             | much more expensive electric vehicles supposedly are.
             | 
             | Learn to recognize the bullshit. It's important and the
             | consequences are big this time.
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | That's a technically correct but IMO too narrow view of the
             | problem.
             | 
             | Reframe the problem as "how much atmospheric CO2 will be
             | present in 2050?" and 2023 EVs do have promise to reduce
             | that.
        
             | Tiktaalik wrote:
             | Limiting ever more CO2 from going into the atmosphere is an
             | important related thing to do alongside of the other (much
             | much harder!) problem of removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
        
         | gulikoza wrote:
         | They don't.
         | 
         | What they do is centralize CO2 production which can be then
         | mitigated on a larger scale (switching power production to
         | nuclear/solar/wind, CO2 capture from industrial processes...).
         | 
         | They also clean-up living spaces and allow pollution (that
         | which is necessary) to be outside of the cities. This alone
         | would probably save millions of lives...
        
         | SECProto wrote:
         | > 1. Produce/transport a bunch of electric vehicles, producing
         | massive emissions 2. ??? 3. Somehow billions of tonnes of
         | carbon get removed from the atmosphere
         | 
         | I'll revise that to be more accurate:
         | 
         | 1. Produce/transport a bunch of electric vehicles, producing
         | _moderately more emissions than the production of equivalent
         | gasoline vehicles would have_
         | 
         | 2. _These electric vehicles release dramatically less carbon
         | emissions per kilometer, even if the power source is itself
         | fossil fueled_
         | 
         | 3. Billions of tonnes of carbon _that would have been emitted
         | with the status quo are not._
         | 
         | > I fail to see how EVs do anything to actually do something
         | about the problem i.e. REMOVE CO2 from the atmosphere.
         | 
         | EVs aren't going to remove carbon from the atmosphere (and I've
         | never heard anyone say that they will?). They simply reduce the
         | ongoing _increase_ of emissions from the transportation sector.
         | They are one small piece of the climate change puzzle.
         | 
         | The carbon in the atmosphere can't even _begin_ to decrease if
         | we are continually increasing the amount we add to it.
        
       | college_physics wrote:
       | People are hoping for a quick sustainability fix but that is not
       | on offer. Our current footprint on the global environment took at
       | least a century of population growth and technological expansion
       | to manifest. Car based cities are just one of the designs we are
       | stuck with.
       | 
       | EV's will play some role to keep that pattern workable, but it
       | may well be that other ways of organising life and the economy
       | will prove better adapted and more efficient in the midterm (~20
       | yrs)
       | 
       | Keep in mind that co2 is just one of the many constraints we are
       | increasingly bumping against. The age of innocence is gone. On
       | the other hand there is nothing sacred about how we organized
       | things since 1900 or so...
        
       | jakewins wrote:
       | The head of IEA they are referring to, Birol, wrote an op-ed on
       | why the explosion of EVs is fundamental for the climate
       | transition just a few months ago:
       | https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/23/perspectives/iea-electric...
       | 
       | Why would IEEE use a quote from 2017 from some Norwegian blog to
       | make it seem IEAs position is the opposite of what it actually
       | is?
        
       | stevespang wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | Tiktaalik wrote:
       | > International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) argues
       | that EVs are the quickest means to decarbonize motorized
       | transport. However, EVs are not by themselves in any way going to
       | achieve the goal of net zero by 2050.
       | 
       | Yep. Technically correct, but an example of shooting for the
       | wrong goal, and failing entirely.
       | 
       | The goal is not making our motorized transport system low carbon.
       | The goal is limiting the damage of climate change and keeping a
       | lid on temperature rises. If we constrain our solution set to
       | maintaining the same sort of motorized transport system we will
       | fail.
       | 
       | I would like to hope that software engineers on this site reading
       | this would recognize such a problem.
       | 
       | It is like when, fundamentally, the design of a program from the
       | get go was wrong from the first foot forward and as a result it's
       | simply too slow. No amount of fiddling around the edges, hacks
       | and minor fixes will result in an adequate improvement. Only a
       | new design is a real fix.
       | 
       | Thankfully in many ways it's actually easier to fix cities than
       | to fix a major software project. For one thing we at least know
       | the solutions, and they're easily achievable given political will
       | and with not a great deal of money. (not easily around on a
       | software project!)
       | 
       | Most of the issues come more from political restriction than
       | anything else, and so much can be done by simply letting people
       | do things that they're currently banned from doing (ie. let
       | people build more housing). Couple that with some relatively
       | affordable bike lanes and rapid bus lanes, and one can achieve
       | remarkable improvements with relatively little capital
       | expenditure and effort.
       | 
       | > Even a few US cities it might be livable without a car.
       | 
       | Musing that better things are maybe possible in "a few" US cities
       | is dramatically low ambition and out of touch.
       | 
       | Consider that 45% of Vancouver's West End commutes to work _by
       | walking_. That 's a neighbourhood of 45,000 in a major NA city.
       | There's absolutely nothing going on remarkably here that accounts
       | for this excepting the simple fact that it's a bunch of 1960s era
       | residential apartments in a pleasant tree lined area within a 20
       | minute walking distance of Vancouver's Downtown. That's it. I'm
       | pretty sure this concept is quite replicable in cities across
       | America.
        
         | longitudinal93 wrote:
         | They've also made it very unpleasant to own a car in the West
         | End - parking is extremely limited or requires a special pass.
         | There are very few thru- streets so all car journeys are
         | convoluted, etc.
         | 
         | And support for alternatives is plentiful - bus service is
         | excellent, bike lanes and routes are abundant, there are
         | numerous and frequent bike share stations, etc.
         | 
         | It's definitely a great place to live.
        
       | cat_plus_plus wrote:
       | We are talking 2050 right? Why would most people keep a separate
       | self-driving EV in the garage? Just hail one through an app and
       | it will drive you on your trip, 1 mile or 500 miles. Some people
       | just enjoy shaming others for living pleasant lives when
       | technology is already available to preserve each activity while
       | keeping carbon emissions down and is not standing still - in fact
       | the rate of technological advancement of humanity is accelerating
       | over time. Lab grown meat can be cheaper, tastier and healthier
       | than one from a whole animal. See your less important travel
       | destinations in high quality VR. Or if you still want organic
       | meat or a non-VRable beach vacation, enjoy, we have carbon
       | capture and biofuel tech to get you covered. Progress is about
       | giving choices, not taking away choices.
        
         | mrshadowgoose wrote:
         | > Some people just enjoy shaming others for living pleasant
         | lives
         | 
         | I've observed that most people have some instinctual need to
         | hate on some other sub-group of society, and blame them for the
         | world's problems. For a lot of people that subgroup seems to be
         | "car users".
         | 
         | We could collectively be focusing on decarbonizing all energy
         | production, and building excess energy production capacity to
         | offset any remaining carbon production, and even start winding
         | back the damage we've done so far. And then it wouldn't matter
         | one bit what mode of transportation you used, or what you used
         | energy towards.
         | 
         | But it's easier to divide ourselves and hate on each other.
        
       | MaysonL wrote:
       | Micromobility EVs may make a much bigger contribution to climate
       | change amelioration.
        
         | zip1234 wrote:
         | Truly, micromobility like E-bikes are cheap, require much less
         | space, healthier and are more social. Governments do not know
         | how to build for micromobility yet it seems.
        
           | Tiktaalik wrote:
           | all it would require is building some protected bike lanes
           | (which are very cheap to build), but that would _gasp_ be
           | taking space _away_ from exclusive car use, and so is
           | political anathema to many. This needs to change.
        
         | andrepd wrote:
         | Exactly. A 3.5-ton electric SUV is marginally better than a
         | petrol SUV. You what's better than both? An e-bike.
        
       | mulcahey wrote:
       | > Perfect is the enemy of good! More at 11
        
       | varelse wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | nkingsy wrote:
       | Don't know where to put this, but utility rates in northern
       | California have gotten to the point where it's cheaper to drive
       | my prius than my EV from a fuel standpoint, and that's using the
       | special off peak EV rate.
       | 
       | If you have net metering and solar, great, but at this point if
       | you're not a homeowner with grandfathered nem 2.0, Evs make no
       | sense in northern ca.
        
         | agilob wrote:
         | Pretty much the same in most of Europe. Electric trams are
         | stopped where I lived, council resigned from buying electric
         | buses, some nearby cities even turn on only one side of street
         | lights, charging EV is more expensive than diesel for the same
         | range.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | KennyBlanken wrote:
       | EVs absolutely help, but they don't address any of the myriad of
       | problems inherent in low occupancy vehicle transportation. One
       | person in a car requires more resources (energy, parking space,
       | space on the road while in use, the cost of the vehicle and its
       | maintenance, damage to roads, injuries/deaths from crashes, etc)
       | 
       | If we spent even some money spent on self-driving vehicles on
       | public transit infrastructure, we'd get immediate gains and it
       | would in particular help those who are on the bottom rungs of the
       | ladder economically - making it easier for them to contribute
       | toward society, and causing fewer problems to boot (such as the
       | enormous costs of trying to maintain a cheaper/older car, causing
       | a crash because their vehicle is poorly maintained, or they fell
       | asleep while driving from working 2-3 jobs, etc.)
        
         | imtringued wrote:
         | Governments don't tax land so they have no incentive to invest
         | in good public transport. Most transportation projects
         | massively increase property values which is then captured by
         | landlords instead of governments and then everyone complains
         | that public transport doesn't work and can't fund itself and
         | people wonder why politicians invest in boondoggles to
         | immortalise themselves instead of acting more like a business
         | that prioritizes useful investments because it increases future
         | tax revenue.
         | 
         | Land value taxes make way more sense than income taxes because
         | they are location based. If a politician makes a mistake and
         | you move away they will get your income tax regardless. So they
         | have no reason to invest in any given location.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > Governments don't tax land
           | 
           | They...actually do.
        
         | andrepd wrote:
         | Absolutely nailed. EVs solve one problem about ICE cars. Not
         | the other 99.
        
       | pyrrhotech wrote:
       | EVs seem to not be a very well thought-out long term solution in
       | general, unless radically different batteries with very high
       | energy density can soon be developed. Earth has 88 million tons
       | of lithium, of which only 1/4 is economically feasible to mine.
       | Each Tesla battery uses about 50 kg of Li, which means only about
       | 18 Tesla batteries can be produced per ton, or about 396 million
       | total Tesla batteries. Current global automobile production is
       | about 80 million per year. If society were to totally switch to
       | EVs, we would run out within a decade or so even assuming most of
       | these cars used far less lithium (and thus had much shorter
       | range, limiting practicality). This back of the napkin analysis
       | also ignores all the other competing uses of Li...
        
         | triyambakam wrote:
         | And the mining itself is very polluting
        
         | jakewins wrote:
         | Your number is off by eight orders of magnitude.
         | 
         | Lithium is one of the most common elements on the planet.
         | Earths crust contains ~0.002-0.006% Li by weight, or
         | 1,220,000,000 million tonnes if you use the low estimate.
         | 
         | You seem to have confused the concept of "known reserves" - the
         | 88M number is deposits that we've paid to map out and know
         | _exactly_ where they are.
         | 
         | As current deposits empty out, companies will invest in mapping
         | out others.
        
         | diebeforei485 wrote:
         | > Each Tesla battery uses about 50 kg of Li
         | 
         | Do you have a source for this figure?
        
         | ravenstine wrote:
         | Maybe governments are helping to prop up EVs as a means of
         | covertly hoarding lithium. Even if EVs don't work out, having
         | an abundance of lithium could be of tremendous value.
         | /conspiracy
        
           | zopa wrote:
           | This is in a timeline where governments _are_ capable of
           | long-term secret plans that move markets, but _haven't_
           | thought of strategic reserves?
        
         | jhp123 wrote:
         | Earth has many trillions of tons of lithium.
        
         | mjrpes wrote:
         | Musk in 2022 said lithium makes up 5kg in a car battery:
         | https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502519-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-...
        
         | ajross wrote:
         | > Earth has 88 million tons of lithium, of which only 1/4 is
         | economically feasible to mine.
         | 
         | This is outrageously spun. That number is (I assume, you don't
         | cite a source) a count of total known reserves. That's not the
         | way research extraction works; as industries develop (and this
         | one is in its infancy) they discover new sources. This is the
         | logic that led people to warn about "peak oil" in the 90's.
         | They were hilariously wrong (because guess what? we
         | "discovered" fracking as prices rose!).
         | 
         | The "1/4 economically feasible" bit likewise assumes, again,
         | current prices and production method. You don't think it's
         | possible to reach a price equilibrium and technology balance
         | that makes that worthwhile to extract? Why? It's happened for
         | every other resource we use.
         | 
         | And the big mistake here is that you're assuming that we throw
         | the batteries in the trash when a vehicle reaches end of life.
         | In point of fact battery elements are among the _most
         | effectively recycled materials in the modern economy_. A junk
         | NMC battery is, in essence, a very highly concentrated cobalt
         | /lithium ore just waiting for smelting. We don't "run out" like
         | you posit. At steady state, we need enough to cover growth and
         | loss only.
         | 
         | Basically: you're wrong. There's lots and lots of Li out there
         | long term. In the nearer term, though, yeah: we can't mine
         | remotely enough of the stuff and batteries will remain
         | expensive as the industry grows.
        
           | yawaramin wrote:
           | > as industries develop (and this one is in its infancy) they
           | discover new sources.
           | 
           | And what do you imagine they will do with those new sources?
           | Leave them pristine while they elegantly and cleanly suck out
           | only the required lithium? No, they will destroy those
           | ecologies with massive mining operations which will generate
           | tons of waste, toxic chemicals, and CO2.
           | 
           | In our quest to reduce carbon emissions it seems we are
           | willing to do everything we can to destroy our habitable
           | environment.
        
             | thinkcontext wrote:
             | How are you quantifying those mining externalities compared
             | to other mining activity or compared to the reduced
             | externalities from ICE vehicles?
        
       | giardia wrote:
       | The Economist wrote a few months back that an EV in Japan
       | actually produces more carbon per mile than an ICE because almost
       | all of their energy comes from coal plants. I'm not sure if
       | America has a radically different coal plant design which
       | produces less carbon somehow, but ~60% of electricity in America
       | comes from coal. [edit: 60% is fossil fuel generated, ~20% is
       | coal]
       | 
       | Additionally, it's going to be a massive effort to upgrade our
       | grid (not just generation) to handle all these EVs, and America
       | is not well situated for public transport since we built out
       | instead of up.
       | 
       | I don't want anyone to get the impression that EVs are bad, but
       | people act like they're saving the world by buying a Tesla. It's
       | not that simple. This is a very, very difficult problem and every
       | solution has trade-offs.
        
         | kiba wrote:
         | _Also, America is not well situated for public transport since
         | we built out instead of up. That 's a very difficult issue._
         | 
         | It's currently economically unsustainable. We will need to
         | densify and abandon non-viable area, get rid of minimum
         | parking, and reduce lanes of roads.
        
           | zip1234 wrote:
           | Every state/local already continually asks for federal
           | handouts to maintain their overbuilt 8 lane roads. The fact
           | that people still want to add lanes to roads is mind
           | boggling.
        
         | philipkglass wrote:
         | Coal provided 23% of US electricity generation in 2021, 20% in
         | 2022, and is forecast to fall to 19% in 2023. The US now burns
         | less than half of the coal it did in 2007.
         | 
         | https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/coal.php
         | 
         | https://www.statista.com/statistics/184333/coal-energy-consu...
        
           | giardia wrote:
           | Oops, mixed up coal and total fossil fuel for energy
           | generation which is a big difference.
        
         | SigmundA wrote:
         | Coal is under 20% now in the US and dropping:
         | https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48896
         | 
         | Even if you still run off coal you are decoupling energy source
         | from the vehicle allowing the vehicle to run off any source
         | that currently makes the most sense. You can't run a gas car
         | off coal but you can run an electric.
         | 
         | Power plants are more efficient than small combustion engines
         | as well as having more sophisticated emission controls with no
         | concerns for weight or size with a full time staff to maintain
         | them.
         | 
         | The grid needs to increase 30% to support all cars, it only
         | took 40 years for it to increase 5X from 1960 to 2000, about 4%
         | per year, so less than 10 years to support all cars, easily
         | doable.
        
         | ezfe wrote:
         | I don't believe that it's true a fully coal powered EV produces
         | more carbon per mile due to how inefficient combustion engines
         | are
        
           | giardia wrote:
           | I'll be honest, I haven't bothered to double check it, but it
           | may be that coal is just that dirty.
        
         | com2kid wrote:
         | > The Economist wrote a few months back that an EV in Japan
         | actually produces more carbon per mile than an ICE because
         | almost all of their energy comes from coal plants. I'm not sure
         | if America has a radically different coal plant design which
         | produces less carbon somehow, but ~60% of electricity in
         | America comes from coal.
         | 
         | It is easier to upgrade a (comparative) small number of power
         | plants than it is to make everyone's ICE engine more efficient.
         | 
         | > Additionally, it's going to be a massive effort to upgrade
         | our grid (not just generation) to handle all these EVs.
         | 
         | The amount of work needed to upgrade our grid to handle the
         | increased usage of air conditioning due to global warming is
         | greater than the work needed to support EVs.
        
         | thinkcontext wrote:
         | On US average grid EVs get 93mpg equivalent. On the dirtiest
         | (most carbon intense) grid in the US that figure is 42, the
         | cleanest 256. Of course for EVs those numbers will get better
         | each year.
         | 
         | https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/plug-in-or-gas-up-why...
        
       | lnsru wrote:
       | I see on some days, that electricity generation in Germany is 45%
       | coal and 20% gas. With all transmission and storage losses the
       | EVs are almost coal powered then. I know, it's very rough
       | estimation. But with coal powered cars not much positive can be
       | done against climate change.
        
         | timbit42 wrote:
         | An EV running on coal-generated electricity is still cleaner
         | than an ICEV.
        
       | fwungy wrote:
       | 1) Climate modeling is hard. There have been substantial shifts
       | in the climate over time, including five ice ages.
       | 
       | 2) Climate change predictions have been repeatedly wrong. In the
       | 80's they said the Maldives would be submerged by 2000, for
       | example. Maldives are still there.
       | 
       | 3) if the models are good then things like the costs of coastal
       | real estate should show it. Coastal real estate is still premium
       | so either the models are wrong or the banks are ignoring the
       | models and lend huge amounts on property thar will soon be
       | reclaimed by the sea.
       | 
       | 4) There are people and countries with trillions on pil reserve
       | wealth who will be reduced to poverty in a fossil free world. Are
       | they going to cooperate with their own impoverishment based on
       | weak, poorly performing climate models produced by antagonistic
       | western states?
       | 
       | 5) There is a huge installed base of fossil fuels in the
       | developing world. The energy density and portability of fossils
       | is great for places with limited infrastructure. How do you
       | convert them?
       | 
       | 6) Nuclear is the only realistic approach to mass scale
       | decarbonization. Why is this ignored. If you believe the climate
       | models then we should accept the stochastic risks of nuclear over
       | the absolute risk of climate in the near future. Is not the risk
       | of an occasional Chernobyl better than planet wide destruction
       | and degradation.
       | 
       | 7) The past few years have demonstrated the danger of alarmists
       | reacting to scary looking model data that they don't fully
       | understand.
       | 
       | 8) Addressing climate change directly at the source is
       | intractable for the reasons I've listed. Mitigation approaches
       | are going to pay much better dividends than multi moon shot green
       | technology agendas.
        
         | CJefferson wrote:
         | 2) By "they said the Maldives would be submerged by 2000", this
         | seems to be one report which was the basis for for a full study
         | of the problem by the UN. Do you agree there have been notable,
         | significant, temperature rises over the last 100 years, which
         | appear to be a significantly faster change than in previous ice
         | ages?
        
           | fwungy wrote:
           | Show me the detailed climate data for the past 20 million
           | years.
           | 
           | Oh, you can't. Why? Because there is no data. It's all
           | modeled.
           | 
           | To be clear I'm not denying anthropogenic climate change, I'm
           | questioning the strategies employed .
           | 
           | A hundred years of data amongst millions is insignificant. We
           | don't know what proportion is anthropogenic and which is the
           | larger climate trend that is beyond our control. Regardless,
           | the logical optimization is nuclear and mitigation, not a
           | suicidal unilateral rush into zero GHG. Under that approach
           | if the multiple technogical breakthroughs never come we are
           | in worse shape than if we had not done anything.
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | > Climate change predictions have been repeatedly wrong
         | 
         | This is fossil fuel industry propaganda - whoever told you this
         | is untrustworthy and literally banking on you not fact-checking
         | their claims. The consensus predictions since the late 1970s
         | have been increasingly accurate, especially since the 1980s.
         | 
         | For example, the first IPCC report from 1990 had estimates
         | which we now have data to judge them against:
         | 
         | https://arstechnica.com/science/2012/12/ipccs-climate-projec...
         | 
         | Similarly, Dr. James Hansen (director of NASA's Goddard
         | Institute) testified before Congress based on his 1988 study
         | predicting global warming and his numbers were very close to
         | what we saw over the subsequent 3 decades:
         | 
         | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97...
         | 
         | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97...
         | If you believe that "ice age" talk was real, remember that the
         | source of that was a couple of speculative papers which were
         | never widely accepted and were refuted by the late 1970s.
         | 
         | https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/that-70s-myth-did-cl...
        
       | AstixAndBelix wrote:
       | Decrease need for private transportation.
       | 
       | Heavily push for EVs.
       | 
       | Allow combustion engines when actually necessary instead of
       | banning everything like a bunch of blind ideologues.
       | 
       | Clean up the air from carbon to compensate.
        
       | PragmaticPulp wrote:
       | Better headline: "EVs are decarbonizing transport, but we have
       | more work to do. Here's what we should do next."
       | 
       | From the article:
       | 
       | > This is not to imply in any way that electric vehicles are
       | worthless. Analysis by the International Council on Clean
       | Transportation (ICCT) argues that EVs are the quickest means to
       | decarbonize motorized transport.
       | 
       | The headline feels like someone crafted it for maximum clickbait.
       | The perpetual doomsday framing of everything, _including the
       | climate wins_ , only makes people tune out of the conversation.
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | I think this concern has to be balanced against the billions of
         | dollars promoting the status quo. A lot of people want to
         | believe that all we need to do is buy electric cars, and there
         | are multiple industries pushing that since it's good for
         | business while politicians like not having to tell people that
         | lifestyle changes are necessary.
        
           | CraigJPerry wrote:
           | >> A lot of people want to believe that all we need to do is
           | buy electric cars
           | 
           | The people i hear most vehemently arguing for ev adoption are
           | quick to share a laundry list of all the other things we
           | should be doing.
           | 
           | I haven't run across the EV-and-we're-done brigade. I'm not
           | dismissing that they exist but I haven't met them.
        
             | KennyBlanken wrote:
             | Literally every time I see anything about "green
             | transportation" from federal, state, or local government
             | and non-profits the talk starts with and ends with electric
             | vehicles.
             | 
             | The feds talk some talk about alternative transit, and some
             | cities are leaning heavily into alternate transit...but at
             | my county and local level there's basically zero interest
             | in public transit, walking, or biking infrastructure.
        
               | BuyMyBitcoins wrote:
               | Advocating for walkable cities and being anti-automobile
               | is all the rage nowadays, but that doesn't translate well
               | to real world action. As much as we want to, and should,
               | redesign cities, that is a monumental undertaking that
               | will necessarily require several decades worth of effort
               | and billions of dollars.
               | 
               | Switching to electric vehicles, meanwhile, does not
               | require eminent domain and does not ask citizens to
               | change their mobility standards. It is also something
               | local governments don't have to pay for.
        
               | paulryanrogers wrote:
               | > ...does not ask citizens to change their mobility
               | standards.
               | 
               | My how far we have come from "Ask not what your country
               | can do for you, but what you can do for your country."
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | That challenge was to find ways to contribute in your own
               | sphere.
               | 
               | Converting one car to an EV (and accepting the resulting
               | compromises) is more realistically in that spirit than
               | something like "knock down your house and build a mid-
               | rise on your lot" would be.
        
           | ajross wrote:
           | > A lot of people want to believe that all we need to do is
           | buy electric cars, and there are multiple industries pushing
           | that
           | 
           | Um... who? I think it's rather the opposite: I see a "lot of
           | people" in "multiple industries" making strawman arguments
           | like this. Essentially, it's a deflection from "EVs are
           | better than cars" (a clear truth that can't reasonably be
           | argued with) to "EV proponents don't have all the answers
           | either" (a winnable argument that feels like it's related
           | even though it isn't).
           | 
           | Buy the EV. Also move closer to the urban core, WFH, and
           | otherwise reduce your dependence on the suburban road
           | networks. But buy the EV if you need a car.
        
             | mellosouls wrote:
             | Even leaving aside your dubious claim about what can and
             | cannot be argued with, your conclusion about what choices
             | people should make is pie in the sky for a significant part
             | of even the developed world.
             | 
             | Economic and logistic reasons mean that carbon fuel cars
             | are still the best transport option for most (?) people
             | outside of urban centres and well-paid jobs.
        
               | ajross wrote:
               | This seems like a dodge? You said lots of people were
               | saying something, I asked for a cite.
        
               | mellosouls wrote:
               | I'm not the poster you are referring to.
        
               | bbarnett wrote:
               | Upvoted, as I see you were downsmashed because you spoke
               | of realities, not "where we want to be".
               | 
               | What you say is true. I find "everyone EV now!"
               | proponents, often just use handwavy platitudes when given
               | "I can't" info. For example, for many, many people ...
               | range is a vital, and sadly an electric EV preventive
               | thing.
               | 
               | When told this, EV absolutists often blather on about why
               | a person is wrong, and do so while ignoring that person's
               | reality.
               | 
               | The same is valid for cost. If you are poor, and can
               | barely afford a truck for work, telling someone to spend
               | 2x or 3x for a EV variant is exceptionally unfeeling,
               | unrealistic, and elitist.
               | 
               | What we need to do, is be open to solutions to help
               | people switch. One is H2, which has multiple cars with
               | extensive range on the road, yet EV absolutists will
               | start going on about green or not h2.
               | 
               | While at the same time ignoring that all excess power in
               | the US, currently comes from fossil fuel!
               | 
               | Until the last fossil fuel shuts down, that is excess
               | kept running by EV needs.
               | 
               | But you see, the goal is not where the battery charge, or
               | h2 comes from, it is where it _can_ come from!
               | 
               | We can 100% make green h2, just as we can eventually
               | fully purge fossil fuels from our electric grid.
               | 
               | And it takes decades to move cars and transport from
               | fossil to alternative options. We are doing it in
               | parallel. So that one day, when we are free of fossil
               | use, all our cars will already be fossil free! Including
               | poor people driving 20 year old cars!
        
               | acdha wrote:
               | It's not 2-3 times more for an EV: the average American
               | truck buyer dropped $46k last year. You can buy a Leaf or
               | Bolt for half that much and you'll save many thousands of
               | dollars in maintenance and fuel over the life of the
               | vehicle. Yeah, perhaps 10-20% of truck buyers do
               | something those vehicles can't but most of the sales are
               | fashion accessories for men who like to cosplay as
               | ranchers. Given how much of the population lives in non-
               | rural areas and doesn't haul cattle for a living,
               | switching to EVs buys a lot of time to find solutions for
               | the hardest use cases.
               | 
               | Similarly, the reason hydrogen isn't talked about more
               | comes down to two reasons: it's not competitive and it
               | costs a lot more. Right now a huge number of people can
               | buy an EV and charge it at home - if your commute is the
               | American average or less, you don't even need a 240V plug
               | for that. If you want to buy a hydrogen powered car,
               | you're paying twice as much just to get started and you
               | can refuel at a total of 60 places in the entire U.S. and
               | Canada, most of them in California.
               | 
               | That might be worth thinking about but for the other
               | problem: most hydrogen is made from fossil fuels. This is
               | why there's so much astroturf presenting it as a good
               | future choice: the hydrocarbon industry can profit now
               | while claiming that green sources will happen real soon
               | now.
               | 
               | Yes, you can envision that we'd have solar powered H2
               | plants or something but that still hits a lot of
               | incompletely solved logistical problems--it's hard to
               | contain and ship--and immediately runs into the question
               | of why you wouldn't instead have that solar power
               | charging the much greater number of EVs which are much
               | easier to support.
        
               | bbarnett wrote:
               | Here we are again. People "don't need" that truck, so buy
               | a small ev, it is cheaper!
               | 
               | Meanwhile, I specifically referenced prople buying trucks
               | for _work_.
               | 
               | And if they do not, a small gas powered is far cheaper
               | that a small ev. Remember, I referenced _poor_ , which
               | means save NOW!, or where do you think all that well
               | known credit card debt comes from.
               | 
               | Planning for future maintenance costs takes a back seat,
               | when poor.
               | 
               | And so here we show an elitist, hand wavy response.
               | Telling the person referenced as "need a truck for work",
               | no, you don't!
               | 
               | Not helpful, but elitist, exclusionist.
        
               | acdha wrote:
               | Yes, I'm aware. It's still true that most people do not
               | need a truck for work, even if you look exclusively at
               | the subset of people who buy a truck for work. One of the
               | interesting things about getting out of affluent areas is
               | that you see far fewer trucks - go somewhere poor and
               | it's a lot more small cars because they cost less to buy,
               | maintain, and use half as much fuel.
               | 
               | Again, it's not that _nobody_ uses one but that it's a
               | much smaller fraction of the total market. We can reduce
               | emissions considerably without inconveniencing anyone and
               | over time all of the used EVs on the market will improve
               | the low-cost options.
        
             | acdha wrote:
             | The automobile industry is huge. They desperately want the
             | way we deal with climate change to be buying EVs at the
             | same price as ICEs rather than investing in transit,
             | density, biking, or electric low-speed vehicles (one
             | electric SUV needs a battery large enough to power tens of
             | those or hundreds of e-bikes).
             | 
             | Agriculture uses a ton of fossil fuels, and they have the
             | same interest: electric trucks aren't a threat the way
             | eating less beef or not shipping food halfway around the
             | planet is.
             | 
             | Repeat for hospitality & travel, etc.
             | 
             | My point isn't that EVs are terrible or that we shouldn't
             | buy them but that we have to guard against complacency.
             | Remember how city governments jumped at Uber & Tesla's
             | marketing because it gave them the chance to say self-
             | driving cars would solve travel & therefore they didn't
             | need to invest in transit or bike infrastructure, wasting a
             | decade? The same dynamic will unfold here if we treat EVs
             | as the primary thing we need to change rather than a
             | necessary but far from sufficient step.
        
           | dheera wrote:
           | What I _really_ don 't understand is why don't Shell, Exxon,
           | Chevron and their ilk get into the EV game and start setting
           | up DC fast chargers at all of their gas stations? They
           | profit, and EV range anxiety becomes a thing of the past by
           | having chargers literally everywhere.
        
             | pharmakom wrote:
             | Low profit. Accelerates decline of the cash cow.
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | But the gas station cash cow is often the overpriced
               | kiosk and not the gasoline.
        
             | acdha wrote:
             | It'll happen but it requires reversing half a century spent
             | pouring money into marketing the idea that climate change
             | isn't real, won't be much, etc. They'll need to reconsider
             | the space usage but one nice thing about EVs is that non-
             | toxic fuel means you can safely spread out through the
             | entire parking lot.
        
             | CharlesW wrote:
             | I'm guessing for the same reason innovation rarely happens
             | within companies that are printing money by maintaining the
             | status quo. _The Innovator 's Dilemma_ by Clayton
             | Christensen is a good book on this, and the iPhone is
             | another good example that _had_ to come from outside the
             | telecom industry.
             | 
             | Plus, there's an impedance mismatch between EV charging
             | times and the retail store model, in that retail stores
             | want customers in and out ASAP.
        
             | SECProto wrote:
             | > What I really don't understand is why don't Shell, Exxon,
             | Chevron and their ilk get into the EV game and start
             | setting up DC fast chargers at all of their gas stations?
             | 
             | At least in Canada, there has definitely been a push in
             | this direction. Both Petro-Can[1] and Irving[2] have set up
             | fast charging networks at their stations. Many of the Tesla
             | Superchargers in Canada[3] are also located at various gas
             | stations and truck stops (that specifically benefit from
             | more restaurant customers when they use the charger).
             | 
             | [1] https://www.petro-canada.ca/en/personal/fuel/canadas-
             | electri...
             | 
             | [2] https://www.irvingoil.com/en-US/on-the-road/electric-
             | vehicle...
             | 
             | [3] https://www.tesla.com/findus
        
             | kristopolous wrote:
             | They're in it and have been for years
             | 
             | Example: https://shellrecharge.com/en-us/solutions
        
         | aqme28 wrote:
         | I don't fully agree. It argues that beyond the EV conversion,
         | we also have to switch to cycling and public transit for
         | transport.
        
         | PheonixPharts wrote:
         | > including the climate wins
         | 
         | EVs aren't a climate win. It's just more consumption which
         | ultimately means more energy which means more oil.
         | 
         | Aside from that the issue has nothing to do with _where_ the
         | oil is consumed, but how much. The only way to stop climate
         | change is to _prevent_ oil from being extracted. We 're
         | currently in the process of escalating a war to extract more so
         | I'm not optimistic about this.
         | 
         | If EVs had an impact on US oil consumption you would expect
         | that consumption to _drop_ right?
         | 
         | But 2022 was nearly a record year for US oil consumption [0]:
         | 
         | > 20.40 million bpd in 2022 and 20.75 million bpd in 2023. That
         | compares with a record 20.80 million bpd in 2005
         | 
         | EVs are just a way to keep you consuming while feeling okay
         | about. It's not a climate win in the slightest.
         | 
         | 0. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-crude-output-
         | petroleum...
        
           | pcthrowaway wrote:
           | EVs don't use as much oil in their lifetime (including
           | production) as a combustion engine would in theirs (those
           | have to be produced also, right?)
        
           | codeulike wrote:
           | _If EVs had an impact on US oil consumption you would expect
           | that consumption to drop right?_
           | 
           | Not yet, no. Barely expect it to make a dent yet.
           | 
           | Straw man.
           | 
           |  _It 's not a climate win in the slightest._
           | 
           | Why not? Why not _in the slightest_?
           | 
           | You're saying its not even a teeny weeny little sliver of a
           | climate win?
           | 
           | We have to get away from fossil fueled transportation. Having
           | transportation that can/can potentially be renewably powered
           | has to be a step forward. What you're saying just seems like
           | 'let the perfect be the enemy of the good'
           | 
           | Please explain.
        
             | PheonixPharts wrote:
             | > Straw man.
             | 
             | Sorry but anything other than reduction in global fossil
             | fuel consumption is that strawman. That is the only thing
             | that matters. If everything we do is "green" and we still
             | burn more oil than the year before that's all that matters.
        
               | codeulike wrote:
               | But its like we're trying to cross a river and you're
               | standing on the bank saying "we've got to cross that
               | river, thats the only thing that matters" and the guy
               | next to you goes and gets some wood and starts making a
               | boat and you're looking at him saying "making that boat
               | makes no difference, we're still no further across that
               | river. Getting across the river is the only thing that
               | matters"
        
               | paulryanrogers wrote:
               | In absolute terms more oil may be consumed, yet the cause
               | could be growth elsewhere. Said another way EVs may have
               | made that same growth less oil intense than the
               | alternative.
        
               | Spivak wrote:
               | Yeah, but there's pretty much no way to measure that with
               | massive interconnected global supply chains.
               | 
               | You can say less oil is being used in this specific fixed
               | depth trace of an EV production line but at the end of
               | the day it doesn't mean anything if the net effect is
               | billions of cars worth of ICE scrap and new-car
               | consumption along with the impact of retrofitting every
               | gas station, parking lot, and garage with chargers just
               | for an unrelated industry (like freight shipping) to see
               | dollar signs and take advantage of the inevitable price
               | drop and burn all the oil anyway.
               | 
               | The only measure that can means anything is worldwide
               | consumption. This is not an argument for or against EVs
               | but I think the parent is right at where the goal posts
               | need to be set. Around 45% of US oil consumption is
               | gasoline for vehicles so I do believe that it could make
               | a real dent but I won't be popping any champagne until
               | the numbers go down and stay down.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | EVs could have reduced global oil consumption by 2 units
               | while other factors, perhaps entirely unrelated to
               | transportation, increased global oil consumption by 7
               | units for a net of +5.
               | 
               | EVs still did something beneficial in that story.
        
         | sfpotter wrote:
         | Maybe instead of criticizing the way in which the article was
         | written you could comment on some if its actual contents. I
         | feel like people on HN get incredibly hung up on minor things
         | like the title of an article and can't move past that. Climate
         | change is a big deal and HN is full of smart people. It would
         | be nice if we could use it as a venue for discussion about
         | interesting topics instead of whinging about things that annoy
         | us.
        
           | wffurr wrote:
           | The presentation of the topic is as relevant as the facts at
           | hand.
        
           | belval wrote:
           | I guess you haven't been here long. It's a staple of HN to be
           | pedantic and obsess on details, that being said it's also how
           | sometimes you end up with very interesting threads on
           | tangential topics.
        
         | andrepd wrote:
         | Individual automobiles have 100 problems. EVs solve 1 of them
         | (tailpipe emissions), leaving the other 99. Yes, I guess it's
         | better than nothing, but...
         | 
         | Meanwhile old boring things like trains, trams (frequent,
         | comfortable, extensive), proper bike lanes, do more for climate
         | change and general quality of life than replacing a petrol SUV
         | with an electric SUV.
        
         | labrador wrote:
         | > The headline feels like someone crafted it for maximum
         | clickbait
         | 
         | It's written as a bait to people who have bought into the oil
         | industry propaganda that EV's aren't a solution. "Where do you
         | think the electricity comes from? Coal, gas and oil fueled
         | power plants, that's where." If I had a dollar for every time
         | I've heard this I could afford a Tesla.
        
           | mshake2 wrote:
           | Massively increased WFH (triggered by the pandemic) has done
           | more to improve carbon emissions from transportation than any
           | electric vehicle movement will ever do. yet you don't see a
           | hard line top-down push for more WFH, only resistance, why?
        
             | melling wrote:
             | Shouldn't WFH be reflected in US oil consumption?
             | 
             | https://www.statista.com/statistics/282716/oil-
             | consumption-i...
        
             | slowmovintarget wrote:
             | Most jobs are on-site.
             | 
             | The software industry, and things similar to it, like
             | finance, certainly are suitable to work-from-home answers.
             | 
             | But construction, service trades (plumbing, electrical,
             | roofing...), transportation, factory work, retail,
             | restaurant work, farming, janitorial, and more, require
             | people to show up for work at specific places.
             | 
             | How do you mandate that the work most people do, that can't
             | be done from home, should be done from home. Yes the lock-
             | down reduced carbon emissions. But those bounced right
             | back, except for those few "tech" jobs that stayed remote.
             | 
             | Maybe require tech workers to stay home? Maybe the tech-
             | worker shuttles could be electric? I don't think government
             | is particularly good at nuanced rule-making. Let's solve
             | the problem some other way.
        
               | bcrosby95 wrote:
               | Any office job is suitable to work from home.
        
               | mshake2 wrote:
               | The point is that people are saying loudly that this is
               | literally a matter of life and death, but we're not being
               | told to continue stay home if our job can be done from
               | home, we're being told to go back to the office (in a
               | EV!). It's doublethink.
        
               | epgui wrote:
               | > It's doublethink.
               | 
               | Yes. If humans were any good at thinking, we'd be trying
               | a little harder to stop pooping where we eat. We'd have
               | been decarbonizing everything a whole lot sooner.
               | 
               | But we're not all that good at thinking, so here we are
               | and this is how it's going.
        
               | credit_guy wrote:
               | > people are saying loudly that this is literally a
               | matter of life and death
               | 
               | Some people are saying that, but if you rationally think
               | about the actual claims, it's clearly not like that.
               | 
               | The goal of net zero by 2050 was clearly set by some
               | rounding. If we achieve net zero by 2060, it does not
               | mean that in 2050 we are at 100% and boom, in 2060 we are
               | at 0%. It means we are somewhere at 10-15% in 2050. It
               | won't change that much the trajectory of the climate
               | change.
               | 
               | We will clearly get to net zero. My bet is that in the US
               | we will get there by 2040. It's going to take longer in
               | China and India. But working from home will not make the
               | difference between apocalypse and paradise.
        
               | mshake2 wrote:
               | >But working from home will not make the difference
               | between apocalypse and paradise.
               | 
               | Ah, the old "it doesn't matter if we do X, so long as we
               | do Y" where "X" keeps shifting to whatever the arguer
               | wants it to be in that moment. In this case "X" is the
               | 860,000 US office workers driving fossil fuel cars back
               | and forth to work every day, which I was told was a bad
               | thing, but now it actually doesn't really matter.
        
               | guelo wrote:
               | > we're being told to go back to the office (in a EV!)
               | 
               | Who is saying this? There are some businesses types
               | saying to go back to the office. There are some
               | environmentalists saying drive an EV. They are different
               | people. There are hundreds of different view points from
               | people with an opinon of what you should do.
               | 
               | The generic "they" that are supposedly controlling your
               | life is just lazy victim thinking
        
               | mshake2 wrote:
               | Yeah ok. Find a CEO who publicly says "return to the
               | office in a gas-guzzling SUV" and I'll buy you an ice
               | cream.
        
               | BHSPitMonkey wrote:
               | If we could wave a magic wand and suddenly make it so
               | that the currently-externalized costs to _everything_
               | that we do (e.g. the costs of correcting all the
               | downstream impacts of things like driving a mile down the
               | road, manufacturing a plastic bottle, ordering meat,
               | disposing of waste items, etc.) became rolled into the
               | up-front costs of these activities paid by companies and
               | consumers, we 'd have correct incentives informing every
               | aspect of society and cities/commutes would look much
               | different (out of necessity).
        
               | mshake2 wrote:
               | That's like saying making drugs illegal produces the
               | correct incentives to stop the drug trade. Companies and
               | consumers will break the law to bypass any artificial
               | market inefficiency, and it will produce a thriving black
               | market. Why would I pay $50 for a pack of hamburgers when
               | I can get it for $10 from a black market butcher?
        
             | hnhg wrote:
             | Another one is the fashion industry[1], amongst others. But
             | that would be inconvenient for a lot of folks and so
             | everyone forgets about it.
             | 
             | [1] https://carbonliteracy.com/fast-fashions-carbon-
             | footprint/
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | gedy wrote:
             | Because many people don't really care about carbon,
             | climate, and just latch on to that for their biases and
             | agendas
        
             | Schiendelman wrote:
             | There's a real reason for this. Notice that traffic is back
             | to normal? The demand for space on the road was WAY higher
             | than the people actually using it - pre-pandemic far more
             | people were using public transport.
             | 
             | Even with a sizable increase in WFH, the people who were
             | previously dissuaded from driving alone by traffic have
             | filled much of that road space with cars (in the case of
             | Seattle, nearly all of it).
        
               | bnlxbnlx wrote:
               | thx for pointing this out. i wasn't aware of this before,
               | but it be totally makes sense. so we need also need to
               | keep reducing (rather than increase) road space in
               | combination with reducing reason to travel/commute at
               | all.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | I think traffic in Boston/Cambridge is way better than I
               | recall it being pre-pandemic. There's still some at rush
               | hours, but it feels like a lot less to me.
        
             | VBprogrammer wrote:
             | Indeed. I get the feeling it's due to a combination of sunk
             | cost fallacy (we've spent a lot of money on a fancy central
             | London office space god damn it) and upper management
             | wanting to maintain control over their little kingdom.
        
           | hackerlight wrote:
           | EVs are a significantly worse solution than mass transport.
           | Not because the electricity comes from the grid but because
           | of the wastefulness involved in the construction, from the
           | cars themselves and roads, also the additional electricity
           | that's required per capita from cars than from mass transit.
           | That said, they're better than ICE cars.
        
           | dheera wrote:
           | Yeah I've heard this way too much too. Why are humans so bad
           | at second-order thinking and understanding that it's possible
           | and, barring politics, straightforward to change where
           | electricity comes from but it's not really possible to change
           | where gasoline comes from?
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | Was there any significant evolutionary pressure to reward
             | better second-order thinking? Better thinking? Yes. Better
             | long-term, second-order, or very nuanced thinking? Probably
             | not.
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | 130 million adults in the US have low literacy skills,
             | meaning that more than half (54%) of Americans between the
             | ages of 16 and 74 read below the equivalent of a sixth-
             | grade level, according to a piece published in 2022 by APM
             | Research Lab.
             | 
             | https://www.apmresearchlab.org/10x-adult-literacy
             | 
             | My note: critical thinking is not as prevalent as one might
             | think, and there are also folks at various levels of gov
             | and corp acting maliciously about the topic (fossil fuel
             | consumption, climate change) due to entrenched interests.
             | "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when
             | his salary depends on his not understanding it."
        
               | rayiner wrote:
               | The map in your link suggests that low literacy rates are
               | the result of states with large minority populations and
               | immigrants. For example Iowa and Idaho have much higher
               | literacy rates than say New York or California.
               | Mississippi and Alabama have comparably low literacy
               | rates to New York and California, but I'd hazard a guess
               | that this is a product of their Democrat-voting minority
               | population. Because it's not like education funding or
               | anything like that otherwise distinguishes North Dakota
               | from Alabama. So I'm not sure what point you're trying to
               | get across here.
        
               | osigurdson wrote:
               | I don't like "most people are dumb" arguments. Most
               | people have average intelligence (i.e. a normal
               | distribution). It is generally most accurate to assume
               | that "the masses" are just as smart as us - even if it
               | hurts.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > I don't like "most people are dumb" arguments. Most
               | people have average intelligence
               | 
               | "low literacy skills" or lacking "critical thinking" is a
               | description of learning/education, not intelligence.
               | 
               | > It is generally most accurate to assume that "the
               | masses" are just as smart as us
               | 
               | IF "us" refers to people of average intelligence only,
               | this is accurate, though irrelevant here for the same
               | reason as the preceding.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | fbdab103 wrote:
               | That the article did not make a bigger reference to
               | immigrants makes me suspect. What are the percentages for
               | native English speakers vs ESL? The states with the
               | largest rates of Level 1 are all in the southwest where I
               | expect there to be larger numbers of native-Spanish
               | speakers.
        
             | imtringued wrote:
             | The politicians in Germany somehow believe in synthetic
             | fuel...
             | 
             | Hydrogen is difficult enough, adding carbon makes it
             | absurd.
        
           | throwaway894345 wrote:
           | Yeah, it's a weird argument to make in public. It's an
           | admission that you don't understand the difference between a
           | binary/dichotomy and degrees.
        
       | api wrote:
       | Nothing is a "panacea."
        
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