[HN Gopher] Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case
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       Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case
        
       Author : gumby
       Score  : 76 points
       Date   : 2023-01-26 18:21 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (gizmodo.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (gizmodo.com)
        
       | warcher wrote:
       | Can somebody explain to me the existential threat AI is posing to
       | the search business?
       | 
       | I am familiar with ChatGPT composing reasonable sounding answers
       | to prompts. I get that I could type in "what's the best vacuum
       | cleaner under $500?" or something like that, and both Google and
       | ChatGPT could generate an answer for me.
       | 
       | But I want the best, most accurate answer, not a set of
       | banalities that a neural network has composed to convincingly
       | pass the sniff test. I actually care about the content being
       | right, or as close to right as possible.
       | 
       | I admit freely that I'm clearly missing some possibilities here.
       | Can anyone fill me in?
        
         | evanmoran wrote:
         | I'll give it go - Essentially the quality of the average
         | website is declining due to poor incentives such as SEO
         | optimization and content creation farms. Meanwhile, language
         | models like ChatGPT are becoming more advanced. This presents a
         | problem for Google, as ChatGPT will over time become more
         | likely to provide accurate answers than a website search.
         | Additionally, many websites will begin using ChatGPT to
         | generate large amounts of content, making search even worse and
         | more efficient to ask ChatGPT directly.
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | Prompt: Write a ten-paragraph piece in the style of Gizmodo that
       | is guaranteed to make the front page of HN.
        
       | crazygringo wrote:
       | The article doesn't seem to back up its headline at all.
       | 
       | Google is under antitrust investigation for _ads_ , while it
       | talks about the threat to the company being _AI_. The main point
       | of the article is:
       | 
       | > _It would be a lot easier Google could move fast and break
       | things... But with the full force of the US government bearing
       | down on it, the search giant can't do that now... Google will
       | need to conduct itself slowly and tentatively in order to avoid
       | jeopardizing itself in its battle with the Justice Department._
       | 
       | Sure it might need to move more slowly in its ads business (not a
       | good time to buy an ads-related startup). But I see no evidence
       | Google will need to act "slowly and tentatively" in terms of
       | incorporating chatbot functionality into Search.
       | 
       | So I don't see anything "screwing" Google about this at all, not
       | in the least.
        
         | thewataccount wrote:
         | One of the potential issues a lot of people are speculating
         | about is the lower impression counts. For example - when trying
         | to write a script using some api's I'm not super familiar with,
         | I might do 6+ google searches. This will be similar for a lot
         | of fields when trying to find an answer to something, news,
         | other research, etc.
         | 
         | That means you're loading a fresh page of ads every search AND
         | all the ads on those sites too.
         | 
         | With chatGPT (And I'm aware Google has something similar) - I
         | can (and have) just asked it a question, and it will
         | answer/write entire scripts for me. That means there's only a
         | single page load.
         | 
         | Basically people are speculating Google may struggle to
         | monetize a chatbot to the extent they can monetize every single
         | search + site load. You certainly _can_ the speculation is
         | whether the drastically lower impression counts will impact
         | their overall profitability.
        
           | crazygringo wrote:
           | Honestly I don't think it's going to make much of a
           | difference.
           | 
           | The real money is in ads that are targeted to a search --
           | whether you're asking Search or a chatbot for "best fleece
           | half-zip for men" you'll get shown the same ads targeted to
           | that.
           | 
           | While if you're asking it to write a script for you... you
           | probably were to busy to be even looking at or clicking the
           | ads Google was showing anyways back when you were looking for
           | Stack Overflow answers, no matter if it took 100 searches.
           | (There's also nothing stopping Google from showing you 3 new
           | ads before each new chatbot response.)
           | 
           | I have full faith in Google figuring out how to insert just
           | as many ads as before. ;)
        
             | thewataccount wrote:
             | > I have full faith in Google figuring out how to insert
             | just as many ads as before. ;)
             | 
             | Oh they will I'm sure - I'm just not sure if they'll make
             | _as much_ or not. Basically the question is if they can
             | recover the cost per impression money to cost per click
             | IMO.
             | 
             | Or maybe they pivot to something way worse - like in-
             | content ads. Oh man imagine "best fleece half-zip for men"
             | - "The most highly recommended and best option is the
             | [insert marketing here but make it sound great and
             | natural]".
             | 
             | But yeah I highly doubt their existence is in jeopardy or
             | anything like that.
        
         | dragonwriter wrote:
         | > Google is under antitrust investigation for ads,
         | 
         | Its under antitrust investigation for _lots_ of things; its
         | currently being _prosecuted_ in the US for ads.
        
       | lofaszvanitt wrote:
       | Yeah, 1 trillion company... I'm in all tears.
        
       | alexb_ wrote:
       | AI is not the issue here. There is this very large assumption
       | that just so happens to underpin a _VERY_ large part of the tech
       | industry, not just Google. It is assumed that ad spending will
       | always be worth it, ad revenue will always increase, and that the
       | market for digital advertising and targeted digital advertising
       | in particular will always be large enough to support the behemoth
       | that it is today.
       | 
       | But what happens when marketing spend goes down (as it does in a
       | recession)? What happens when customers aren't willing to pay as
       | much for your advertising product (as happens in a recession)?
       | What happens when borrowed money can't be secured easily, and
       | debts come due (once again, as happens in a recession)?
       | 
       | Are people really ready for an economy where user data isn't
       | massively lucrative? Are people really ready for an economy where
       | advertising doesn't pay enough to support the "free" services we
       | take for granted? Are people really ready for a world where free
       | video hosting, free hard drives, free email, free cloud-run
       | office software are not sustainable?
        
         | xnx wrote:
         | It's OK if marketing spend goes down as long as digital
         | continues to steal from non-digital advertising. Example:
         | Advertising money spent on barely-targeted billboards and TV
         | commercials could move to digital substitutes. This is some of
         | what Google is trying to do with YouTube purchasing the rights
         | for some NFL games.
        
           | alexb_ wrote:
           | Digital can steal all they want but if the thing you have
           | attached to the ad ends up costing more than the ad gives
           | you, market share means nothing. All this means is you lose
           | even more money.
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | > But what happens when marketing spend goes down (as it does
         | in a recession)? What happens when customers aren't willing to
         | pay as much for your advertising product (as happens in a
         | recession)? What happens when borrowed money can't be secured
         | easily, and debts come due (once again, as happens in a
         | recession)?
         | 
         | Typically - what happens is - central banks lower interest
         | rates until they're negative in real yields - and people start
         | spending like crazy again.
         | 
         | Who knows what will happen in the future. But that's been the
         | previous playbook.
        
           | smegger001 wrote:
           | that only works if people A) still trust the underlying
           | currency and B) you don't create hyperinflation. What happens
           | in the future when the global economy isn't denominated in
           | petrodollars?
        
             | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
             | Our government printed 10% of GDP as debt to hand out to
             | people for doing nothing. This is almost the epitome of
             | Monopoly money.
             | 
             | The worst that happened was 10% inflation - which is a FAR
             | cry from hyperinflation.
             | 
             | We had negative real rates for a decade before Covid - and
             | the worst that happened was ~7% home price appreciation.
             | 
             | We're not going to get anything resembling "hyper" unless
             | this country basically becomes another country.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | efsavage wrote:
         | > It is assumed that ad spending will always be worth it
         | 
         | This is mostly true. If it wasn't worth it, businesses wouldn't
         | spend money on it. At my last startup we spent money on ads
         | that were worth it, for us, so we stopped. We also found ads
         | that were worth it, so we spent more.
         | 
         | > ad revenue will always increase
         | 
         | Ad revenue is cyclical, it's often the first thing to get cut
         | and the first thing to come back, but it's always going to be
         | there in some form barring a completely new economy.
         | 
         | > the market for digital advertising and targeted digital
         | advertising in particular will always be large enough to
         | support the behemoth that it is today.
         | 
         | Advertising shifts around from time to time (e.g.
         | print->TV->online), but it seems unlikely that it's not going
         | to be digital for the foreseeable future, and targeted will
         | likely always outperform non-targeted. That's not to say it
         | will stay at any particular company/property/app/etc. but
         | unfortunately at this stage it's probably only going to
         | concentrate and migrate from one behemoth to another like it
         | has for most of the history of the industry.
         | 
         | (I work for Google but not in AI, search or ads)
        
         | mollusk_bound wrote:
         | Weren't all these questions answered during the great
         | recession, It wasn't easy but Google weathered the storm. Why
         | is any upcoming recession going to be substantially different.
        
       | scotty79 wrote:
       | Google should be split into ad business and search business.
        
       | endisneigh wrote:
       | People who complain about Google remind me of the meme "no one
       | goes there anymore - it's too full."
       | 
       | Google has a lot of legitimate headwinds, but honestly I don't
       | think antitrust or AI competitors are them.
       | 
       | The legitimate "destruction" of legitimacy on the internet, thus
       | making Search more error prone is an issue. Closed off ecosystems
       | such as apple is an issue.
       | 
       | The antitrust case is a big deal, but it's unlikely Google would
       | be broken up due to it.
        
       | _fat_santa wrote:
       | I made this comment in another thread but I can't decide if LLM /
       | GPT is a seismic shift in search or just a gimmick.
       | 
       | I remember when Copilot came out last year and everyone was up in
       | arms about how it will replace most developers, then the chatter
       | quickly died when people realized that it's not that great
       | outside a few specific scenarios, it just looked like it could
       | kill the SWE industry from people that haven't been inside of it.
       | 
       | Now it seems the same is happening with ChatGPT. While it's easy
       | to draw conclusions based on what you've seen ChatGPT do, I
       | wonder if it will provide long term value or be a gimmick much
       | like Copilot, having a bunch of simple applications but fail at
       | the more advanced applications (which would be required for it to
       | dethrone say Google Search).
       | 
       | Personally I think LLM/GPT will never replace the current Google
       | search, it however will be baked into almost every search engine
       | and allow an "alternative" way to search the web, where you get
       | answers to simple questions right away without having to go to a
       | website.
        
         | Sebb767 wrote:
         | > it however will be baked into almost every search engine and
         | allow an "alternative" way to search the web, where you get
         | answers to simple questions right away without having to go to
         | a website.
         | 
         | That's what Google does quite a lot already anyway. The
         | difference is that Google directly cites its source and offers
         | alternative links - which is necessary, since if you need to
         | verify the answer with a Google search, you might as well skip
         | asking ChatGPT (or an equivalent) beforehand.
         | 
         | Since ChatGPT is fundamentally trained to do a different thing
         | (word completion), I have a hard time imagining that you can
         | sufficiently coax it into replacing an actual search. But we
         | will see.
        
       | jqpabc123 wrote:
       | Maybe a part of Google's problem is it's focus on "personalized"
       | advertising.
       | 
       | Simple, context based advertising is much easier/simpler to
       | implement --- no privacy invasion required. It also annoys the
       | consumer a lot less and by some accounts is more cost effective.
       | 
       | Amazon in a ecommerce site. If I go there and search for widgets,
       | I should reasonably expect (and maybe even appreciate) some ads
       | from widget makers. What I don't expect and what I find annoying
       | is ads for widgets following me all over the internet for days;
       | even on non-commerce sites; even after I already made my widget
       | purchase at a brick and mortar --- aka, the Google "personalized"
       | approach.
       | 
       | "Personalized" ads are really kinda dumb --- but apparently
       | Google has "sold" enough advertisers on the idea so they can
       | charge a premium for them.
        
       | ex3xu wrote:
       | Google in 1998: _Appendix A: Advertising and Mixed Motives_ from
       | the original paper _The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web
       | Search Engine_ [0]
       | 
       | "Currently, the predominant business model for commercial search
       | engines is advertising. The goals of the advertising business
       | model do not always correspond to providing quality search to
       | users... we expect that advertising funded search engines will be
       | inherently biased towards the advertisers and away from the needs
       | of the consumers... we believe the issue of advertising causes
       | enough mixed incentives that it is crucial to have a competitive
       | search engine that is transparent and in the academic realm."
       | 
       | Google in 2003: Eric "You can trust us with your data" Schmidt
       | convinces Sergey and Larry of the bonkers amount of money they
       | can make by adding a monopoly on digital search advertising to
       | leverage their monopoly on digital search. They proceed to switch
       | to the same advertising business model that hindered their early
       | competitors.
       | 
       | Google in 2008: Buys out Doubleclick to maintain Adsense's
       | monopoly on digital search advertising and doubles down on
       | surveillance capitalism.
       | 
       | Google in 2011: Buys out AdMeld, changes AdX contracts to be even
       | more anticompetitive to maintain monopoly on digital search
       | advertising.
       | 
       | Google in 2017: Loses $2.7 billion antitrust lawsuit in the EU.
       | Response? No changes to business model, but oust a vocal
       | supporter of the decision from Google-funded think tank New
       | America. [1]
       | 
       | Google in 2023: Sued again.
       | 
       | [0] http://infolab.stanford.edu/~backrub/google.html
       | 
       | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15131370
        
       | labrador wrote:
       | I tried to imagine an ad in chat output by asking ChatGPT a
       | question and then making up an ad:
       | 
       | Q: What is superglue?
       | 
       | A: Super glue, also known as cyanoacrylate, is a type of adhesive
       | that forms a strong bond quickly and can be used on a variety of
       | surfaces. It is often used for small repairs, such as broken
       | ceramics or toys, and can also be used in crafts and other
       | projects. Super glue is available in liquid or gel form, and is
       | sold in small tubes or bottles. It should be used with caution,
       | as it can bond skin together and can be difficult to remove.
       | 
       | For your superglue needs, you can't do much better than Gorilla
       | brand superglue. Its high strength and quick set time make
       | Gorilla Super Glue the go-to adhesive for a variety of household
       | projects.
       | 
       | Edit: There used to be a radio guy, I believe it was Joe Franklin
       | who blended the ads into his spiel so you couldn't tell when the
       | ad started and left off, so maybe it will be something like this.
       | 
       | A: Super glue, also known as cyanoacrylate, is a type of adhesive
       | that forms a strong bond quickly and can be used on a variety of
       | surfaces. A brand like Gorilla with it's high strength and quick
       | setting time making it perfect for for small repairs, such as
       | broken ceramics or toys, and can also be used in crafts and other
       | projects. Super glue is available in liquid or gel form, and is
       | sold in small tubes or bottles. It should be used with caution,
       | as it can bond skin together and can be difficult to remove.
        
         | bpodgursky wrote:
         | I don't think Google really _wants_ to be 100% dependent on ad
         | revenue, it 's just a hard cord to cut.
         | 
         | They're trying to move into paid YouTube subs. They presumably
         | could try the same with search.
        
         | dpkirchner wrote:
         | I can't access it now but what does it say if you ask for a
         | naturalistic, brief prompt written like a friend of the reader?
        
           | labrador wrote:
           | Prompt: Write some ad copy for me in the style of a friend
           | recommending I use superglue
           | 
           | "Hey friend, have you ever had a broken vase or a pair of
           | glasses that you thought were beyond repair? Well, let me
           | tell you, super glue is a game changer. It's strong, fast-
           | drying, and can fix just about anything. Trust me, I've used
           | it on everything from ceramic to plastic and it works like a
           | charm. So, next time you have a household emergency, don't
           | throw it away, just grab the super glue and fix it up like
           | new. You'll be amazed at how easy and effective it is!"
           | 
           | Prompt: Write some ad copy for me in the style of a friend
           | recommending I use Gorilla brand superglue
           | 
           | "Hey there! Are you tired of using weak, unreliable glues for
           | your DIY projects and household repairs? Look no further than
           | Gorilla super glue! This stuff is seriously strong and
           | durable. I've used it to fix everything from a broken toy to
           | a wobbly chair, and it holds up like a champ. Plus, it dries
           | quickly and forms a bond that's almost impossible to break. I
           | trust Gorilla super glue so much that I wouldn't use anything
           | else. Give it a try, and you'll see the difference for
           | yourself."
        
             | dpkirchner wrote:
             | Those ain't great, ha. Thanks.
        
         | jefftk wrote:
         | Then they'd need sponsored content disclosures.
        
           | labrador wrote:
           | I remembered it wasn't Joe Franklin, it was Paul Harvey that
           | blended ads and content. I don't recall him giving any
           | disclosures which is why I didn't like his radio talk show.
        
       | varispeed wrote:
       | All big corporations have to be broken up. They have ill
       | influence on everything and they are what many describe symptoms
       | of late stage capitalism and our failure to regulate.
       | 
       | They are like a player of Monopoly who bought everything.
       | 
       | Alphabet shouldn't exist in its current form and so Apple, Amazon
       | and many other corporations.
        
         | cpeterso wrote:
         | How is a "big corporation" defined? Limiting the number of
         | employees a company has (1000? 10,000? 100,000?) would have
         | interesting effects. Companies might be less likely to hire
         | junior people. Bigger companies would need to outsource or hire
         | contractors to avoid hitting their employee limit. There would
         | be competition among companies providing outsourcing or
         | contractor services. That could be good for companies
         | outsourcing work (having more choices), but there would be a
         | lot of market inefficiencies.
        
         | auctoritas wrote:
         | One downside to a bunch of small companies instead of a few
         | large ones: competition is fiercer, the small companies can't
         | rest on their laurels the way the large ones do. Consequently
         | work life balance deteriorates for the average worker.
        
         | smoldesu wrote:
         | Truly, the problem is US complacency. It's a great day to tax
         | businesses when US companies dominate the market, but as soon
         | as a foreign competitor steps in? It's time to defend American
         | competition and ingenuity!
         | 
         | Hopefully, pushback from European regulators who are harder to
         | fool (or buy out) will force the US to admit there's egg on our
         | face. We've let corporate America write the rules for too long,
         | and our democratic control over their abuse has become dilute
         | and helpless. Something's gotta give, and I'm cheering for the
         | countries that take user privacy and consumer rights seriously.
        
           | titzer wrote:
           | > Hopefully, pushback from European regulators who are harder
           | to fool (or buy out) will force the US to admit there's egg
           | on our face. We've let corporate America write the rules for
           | too long, and our democratic control over their abuse has
           | become dilute and helpless. Something's gotta give, and I'm
           | cheering for the countries that take user privacy and
           | consumer rights seriously.
           | 
           | Hopefully. But don't underestimate the general public's
           | abject apathy and religious belief that more "freedom" in
           | markets fixes everything, even when it is obvious that bad
           | actors are employing dark patterns to exploit the anarchy.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | innagadadavida wrote:
         | The big corporations that are doing the most harm are the food
         | companies. They inject animals with antibiotics, kill millions
         | of them in a very cruel manner, employ cheap illegal labor to
         | process it and contaminate the environment beyond repair. The
         | tech industry is bad but nothing compared to the irreparable
         | harm the food industry causes.
        
       | zone411 wrote:
       | I think the opposite: Google will do great. Google+Deepmind's ML
       | research groups are leading everyone. While it's true that they
       | are late in getting something like ChatGPT to market, I think it
       | was a wakeup call and it will be good for their ad revenues once
       | they do. When they release it, they'll know much more about
       | users' intent than from a simple search engine query and users
       | will stay on their properties for longer. The concerns about cost
       | are overblown - they don't need to run it for every query.
        
         | jayd16 wrote:
         | Are they even late to market? I don't think the lunch has been
         | eaten yet.
        
         | Sebb767 wrote:
         | > While it's true that they are late in getting something like
         | ChatGPT to market
         | 
         | Are they? ChatGPT is by all means a loss leader; I don't see
         | why Google would need a halo AI product right now.
        
       | smoldesu wrote:
       | But Alphabet will probably be fine. YouTube and Android are still
       | billion-user products that aren't being displaced with AI, and
       | their advertising business doesn't seem threatened much by this
       | either.
       | 
       | So what's the scoop? I use ChatGPT, it hasn't replaced my search
       | engine. They're insisting that search is obsoleted with AI (and
       | Google is spooked internally) but I have yet to see any research-
       | based evidence supporting it. Personally, I use both tools for
       | completely different things, and while they are similar by-way-of
       | a text box with a prompt, their responses are completely distinct
       | and neither one can replace the other.
        
         | gumby wrote:
         | The point made by the article is that these big lawsuits
         | distracted management. And Google's management is so
         | ineffective today, imagine how much worse it would be with this
         | crowbar poked in.
        
           | Tyr42 wrote:
           | Maybe they will slow down on the reorgs. Could be good.
        
         | kris_wayton wrote:
         | > But Alphabet will probably be fine. YouTube and Android are
         | still...
         | 
         | If you look at a revenue breakdown[1] and then also figure in
         | that search has much higher margins than the other areas, it's
         | pretty skewed to search dollars. They've improved it some, but
         | there's a long way to go.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/how-does-google-make-
         | money
        
         | SCHiM wrote:
         | I recently asked gpt to give me a markdown table of the
         | continents, their landmass and their populations. I checked the
         | numbers and they matched wikipedia.
         | 
         | Google gave me listicles instead...
        
           | smoldesu wrote:
           | I recently asked ChatGPT to multiply 2 numbers together.
           | Every search engine I tried yielded a product, except ChatGPT
           | which gave me an excuse.
           | 
           | They're useful in their own right, but you can't fool
           | yourself into believing either one cannibalizes the other.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | curious what the excuse was.
        
             | harsh1618 wrote:
             | To be fair to ChatGPT though, all the search engines first
             | recognize that the query is trying to perform an arithmetic
             | calculation, then pass it on to a calculator. ChatGPT
             | already understands what is being asked, it would be
             | trivial to perform the next step, pass it on to a
             | calculator and return the right answer.
        
           | harsh1618 wrote:
           | The fact that you felt the need to check Wikipedia shows why
           | LLMs can't replace search, at least not in their current
           | form.
        
           | vineyardmike wrote:
           | > I recently asked gpt to give me a markdown table of the
           | continents, their landmass and their populations. I checked
           | the numbers and they matched wikipedia.
           | 
           | But there is no reason to think that it will be correct,
           | structurally. While you can find examples that work, the AI
           | does not know the truth. An AI does NOT have an understanding
           | of populations, locations, etc.
           | 
           | Google didn't return answers, but it directed you to sites
           | with answers. Those sites were like curated by hand by a
           | human who does understand the meaning of the data
        
           | jayd16 wrote:
           | Why didn't Wolfram Alpha disrupt Google? GPT is just passed a
           | threshold of user friendliness?
        
         | alexb_ wrote:
         | YouTube being a billion user product has nothing to do with how
         | successful they are. My free service of "Contact me and I will
         | give you a dollar" can grow to billions of users if you borrow
         | enough money, and don't care at all about actually making it
         | back.
        
         | Someone wrote:
         | > YouTube and Android are still billion-user products that
         | aren't being displaced with AI
         | 
         | I think they care waaaay more for billion-dollar products than
         | for billion-user products.
         | 
         | > and their advertising business doesn't seem threatened much
         | by this either.
         | 
         | Is it? What fraction of their ad revenues comes from ads on
         | search result pages?
        
         | daqhris wrote:
         | No tech invention ever kicked out the previous iteration.
         | Google and ChatGPT will co-exist. Same way faxes are still
         | alive even if mobile telephony conquered the world.
         | 
         | What will happen is that new use cases will be set in place.
         | Some people might head to Google for diversity of results.
         | Others will prefer ChatGPT for one single search result.
         | 
         | In my opinion, only the "I'm feeling lucky" function on Google
         | will be challenged or replaced.
         | 
         | How can a tech journalist imagine that noobs will modify the
         | default search engine on their Chrome browser and Android
         | smartphones? These guys are not realistic.
        
       | idontwantthis wrote:
       | I don't think comparing IBM to Microsoft is fair or accurate.
       | Microsoft is incredibly relevant and valuable today, many years
       | after ending its antitrust investigation.
        
         | blibble wrote:
         | 20 years ago MS had total dominance over the computer industry
         | 
         | (like IBM 20 years before that)
         | 
         | now MS aren't even trendsetter, but they are still raking in
         | the cash
         | 
         | they are pretty much exactly where IBM was 20 years ago
        
           | Sebb767 wrote:
           | Google hasn't been a trendsetter for a few years now, either
           | (unless you count enforcing web standards with Chrome). Also,
           | calling "relevant industry giant making heaps of money" a
           | failure scenario is quite a stretch.
        
             | blibble wrote:
             | > unless you count enforcing web standards with Chrome
             | 
             | yes, being that the web is THE current platform for
             | technology
             | 
             | in the same way Win32 was 20 years ago
             | 
             | > Also, calling "relevant industry giant making heaps of
             | money" a failure scenario is quite a stretch.
             | 
             | I didn't call it a failure scenario
             | 
             | IBM's making quite a lot of money still (though trending
             | down and not nearly as much as it used to)
        
       | jliptzin wrote:
       | I don't understand arguments that say google will be left in the
       | dust when it comes to AI. There's no network effects like
       | Facebook, it just takes a lot of money to train the models, which
       | google obviously has. Do we really believe google, with all its
       | resources and engineering talent, has no ability to develop
       | something on par with OpenAI?
        
         | itslennysfault wrote:
         | They also already have best in class AI. Google's PaLM is a
         | much larger model than GPT3 and even larger than most estimates
         | of GPT4. They also have Imagen which blows the doors off of
         | Dall-e 2. In no way is google behind OpenAI and they have
         | access to WAAAY more training data and resources in general.
         | Google just hasn't shipped a consumer or publicly available
         | product with any of it yet.
        
         | randmeerkat wrote:
         | > Do we really believe google, with all its resources and
         | engineering talent, has no ability to develop something on par
         | with OpenAI?
         | 
         | Yes, they're a large, bureaucratic organization, that's
         | incapable of developing new products or avenues of growth.
         | 
         | For the sake of argument though, let's say Google created a
         | product on par with ChatGPT, they would just kill it after a
         | few months like every other Google service that they've made.
        
         | miked85 wrote:
         | Google acquired DeepMind almost a decade ago. I'm not sure if
         | anything significant has been produced yet? Maybe it has, and
         | it's all behind the scenes.
        
       | Maursault wrote:
       | > If you'll pardon the jargon, this kind of thing is what experts
       | refer to as a "big problem."
       | 
       | I really hate this kind of inscrutable industry rhetoric. Why
       | can't they just speak plainly?
        
       | gjsman-1000 wrote:
       | Sometimes, I wonder if for the sake of small business and general
       | good, if horizontal integration should be heavily regulated and
       | restricted for publicly traded companies (not private ones).
       | 
       | For example, Apple. Why aren't the software and hardware
       | divisions separated, at a minimum? Furthermore, I might wonder,
       | why couldn't iPhone, iPad, Mac, Audio Accessories etc. be
       | separate companies? Sure, you'd lose a ton of the _integration_
       | that makes it special... but I wonder sometimes if the world
       | would be a better place. Same for Microsoft: Why can 't Windows,
       | Office, Azure, Xbox, all be separate companies? If Windows was an
       | independent company I think it would probably be way healthier
       | for Windows at this point (less Microsoft bloat)...
       | 
       | I feel (just feel) that publicly-traded companies should be
       | forced to pick a market segment and stick to it, and any other
       | businesses that get too large (say, $1B revenue) must be broken
       | off.
        
         | thinking4real wrote:
         | I tend to agree with you, or at least the sentiment of "not
         | perpetual growth", but I think then we run into the problem
         | that the US might lose dominance in various industries to
         | countries who won't throttle their corps like that
         | 
         | Which maybe isn't the worst. Maybe we'd see an exodus of the
         | rats in our own govt and leadership as they chase their efforts
         | into the new world leaders.
         | 
         | Maybe this is the end stage of capitalism and while it was a
         | good experiment to get us into worth surplus it comes at the
         | cost of liberty. Maybe at some point we just need to tweak the
         | entire economic system into the next era.
        
         | jeffbee wrote:
         | Software-hardware coevolution has large benefits to the
         | consumer. What you are proposing is to just make the products
         | worse and more expensive.
        
           | gjsman-1000 wrote:
           | Here's the thing: That might be true, and yet, _necessary_
           | for the good of society and the good of the long-term.
           | 
           | See, for example, Standard Oil. They massively lowered oil
           | prices - we broke them up. See also AT&T. Once their
           | usefulness as a monopoly ran out, we broke them up.
           | 
           | Plus, we can see that hardware-software coevolution has large
           | benefits - but who is to say that having companies separate
           | does not also have large benefits of its own? You might not
           | have Windows shoving Microsoft Teams and Edge and Bing down
           | your throat... or Apple pushing Apple Music to your parents.
           | If Apple can't integrate, perhaps we'd have more open
           | standards for interoperability.
        
         | kitotik wrote:
         | Regulating horizontal integration seems like it would be very
         | difficult. How exactly would those horizons be clearly defined?
         | 
         | I've always thought of Apple having an emphasis on vertical
         | integration(hardware+software=product). So maybe their foray
         | into services would be the line in the sand?
        
       | jb1991 wrote:
       | Why can't Google compete in AI? They have major AI researchers
       | with legendary experience under their belts, what is stopping
       | Google from building something like ChatGPT to augment their
       | search? I guess I don't understand where the threat is. They have
       | a lot more resources than OpenAI.
        
       | flanked-evergl wrote:
       | I would rather deal with Google than Microsoft or Amazon, so I
       | hope they still have some future.
        
       | hbn wrote:
       | > Win or loose, Google is in trouble
       | 
       | Did the recent layoff apocalypse hit Gizmodo editors too?
        
         | caconym_ wrote:
         | Perhaps the author has simply chosen to discard cognitive
         | structures that will be made redundant in the new post-literacy
         | age of ubiquitous ML language tools. Would that we all had such
         | vision, and the courage to act on it.
        
       | counttheforks wrote:
       | Are we ignoring that ChatGPT is stuck in the past and that
       | continuously retraining it on current data is currently still
       | prohibitively expensive?
        
         | mattnewton wrote:
         | Yes, because this is a solvable problem probably easier than
         | figuring out how to make it a useful product (like knowing what
         | it doesn't know and preventing convincing hallucinations in
         | some scenarios while maintaining the ability to hallucinate for
         | creative queries). There is a lot of work on approaches like
         | using search retrieval methods like embedding similarity
         | lookups, and then pasting summaries of the retrieved documents
         | in as context. This allows the LLM to cite new data without
         | retraining. (That's also something google is very good at)
        
       | titzer wrote:
       | I'm not so sure AI is as big a threat as Google perceives it to
       | be; back in 2009 the HUGE EXISTENTIAL THREAT was Social,
       | therefore Google+, but that came and went and Google's growth
       | continued unabated. That said, I do see a place for language-
       | model driven search. And I shudder to think that language models
       | will be specifically coerced, bribed, and have ingrained in their
       | brains only what advertisers want. If you thought the search
       | landscape of the 2020s is fully of SEO'd crap, just wait. Google
       | is not in an enviable position.
        
         | Groxx wrote:
         | It didn't turn out to be existential, but they absolutely lost
         | the Social "war" and it's costing them billions: Facebook owns
         | a large chunk of all ad revenue now, in no small part because
         | of this.
         | 
         | Not that I'm complaining - the less that's under a mega-
         | conglomerate, the better things tend to be. But it was and is a
         | gigantic failure for Google, possibly their largest ever.
        
           | minsc_and_boo wrote:
           | >Facebook owns a large chunk of all ad revenue now
           | 
           | Facebook rode the wave of open 3P consumer data which is now
           | closing everywhere, from DMA to iOS restrictions. That's why
           | they're trying desperately to pivot to the metaverse, so they
           | can use first party data. Facebook is currently experiencing
           | an existential threat.
           | 
           | Social media diminished to algortihmic media (e.g. TikTok)
           | which will likely diminish to AI media sooner rather than
           | later.
        
         | minsc_and_boo wrote:
         | The article also assumes that Google doesn't have it's own
         | chatGPT or other AI irons in the fire right now.
         | 
         | Google Assistant dropped a year after Alexa, and Android's
         | reach helped bolster it's marketshare (antitrust investigation
         | or not).
        
           | cpeterso wrote:
           | Like Google's LaMDA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaMDA
        
         | danjoredd wrote:
         | I honestly don't think that chatgpt will destroy Google
         | either...whenever I use search engines, I use them to find a
         | website I could not remember the name of, locations like
         | restaurants, etc. ChatGPT will be a tool to be used alongside
         | search engines, not a replacement
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | If Google is so afraid of AI, then they should have done the
         | most Googley of things in building AI into Google to get
         | everyone use to it, then drop it. Deprecate the crap out of it
         | like all of the other things. Then, since Googs dropped, it
         | must not be good right? Boom! problem solved
        
         | Zigurd wrote:
         | TBF Google found they already owned a first-tier social
         | network. It was disguised as a video sharing site.
         | 
         | The article quotes someone as saying history repeats itself.
         | Debatable. Google built Alphabet to be defensible against
         | antitrust cases like this. Expect a consent decree.
         | 
         | As you wrote: "I do see a place for language-model driven
         | search." And unlike social media this has less dependency on
         | user perception of whether a social network is cool.
        
         | aeturnum wrote:
         | I agree about AI, though for slightly different reasons. Google
         | published the foundational paper for some of the most important
         | tech behind the exciting AI stuff[1]. Because there's every
         | reason to believe they are technically capable of competing,
         | the reason they aren't offering AI products is probably based
         | on their beliefs about how practical that is right now (cost /
         | reliability / etc). They also have all their Waymo experience.
         | 
         | Basically, I'm not convinced that Google is "behind" on the
         | tech, but just disagrees about product strategy. Obviously
         | there are lots of examples where this dooms the current leader
         | (Xerox Parc!) - but I think it's too early to say? I wouldn't
         | short them yet imo.
         | 
         | [1] https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-
         | neural-n...
        
       | mattnewton wrote:
       | If being screwed looks like sharing Microsoft's "fate" it sounds
       | not bad? Especially from a shareholder perspective.
       | 
       | And honestly while I was there, there were plenty of jokes about
       | how this was already happening, then Google was the new
       | Microsoft.
        
       | Spivak wrote:
       | I think this is the author's wishful thinking more than anything
       | else. Google isn't going to face some existential threat by
       | Microsoft+OpenAI, at least not in the near term because the
       | biggest chunk of the work to get a good AI response in a search
       | product is retrieving good context to feed it.
       | 
       | How do you do that? Well you need an index of the web and a good
       | ranking algo... oh wait.
        
       | jchw wrote:
       | Google is probably screwed without it. Even if ad-tech isn't
       | exactly a bubble, I strongly believe it is overvalued even still.
       | 
       | Furthermore, the product that made their name is thoroughly lost.
       | I dread Google Search today. If I found something on Google
       | yesterday, I have no idea if I'll be able to locate it through
       | the sea of blog SPAM and SEO garbage tomorrow. Google web search
       | strongly favors big websites when sometimes the page you need is
       | never going to be there. As an example, Google puts heavy weight
       | on near-SPAM sites like Pinterest which produce almost no
       | original content, and on abusive hosts like Fandom (formerly
       | Wikia) who manages to beat out community wikis by replacing
       | admins that try to migrate off and winning in SEO.
       | 
       | I am not trying to suggest Duck Duck Go or Bing are actually
       | better overall, but if I see a web search covered in results like
       | that, I sometimes find that they do in fact give me somewhat
       | better result rankings.
       | 
       | The only thing I really have any strong affection for is YouTube,
       | and the people and content that made the platform special are
       | constantly unhappy with it's corporate direction, not to mention
       | the utter lack of support, claiming and affirming in appeals
       | stupid pointless crap like "you said a naughty word in the first
       | ten seconds of the video" when anyone with working ears can
       | easily verify they did not.
       | 
       | And that's the tip of the iceberg. I think a lot of ventures,
       | like GMail, only ever made sense as computers and bandwidth just
       | kept getting dramatically cheaper. It's difficult to beat free.
       | Well, what happens when those things stop getting cheaper, and
       | GMail keeps getting more expensive to run?
        
         | dilippkumar wrote:
         | > Furthermore, the product that made their name is thoroughly
         | lost. I dread Google Search today. If I found something on
         | Google yesterday, I have no idea if I'll be able to locate it
         | through the sea of blog SPAM and SEO garbage tomorrow.
         | 
         | I've had pretty good results with kagi.com
         | 
         | YMMV.
        
         | smallerfish wrote:
         | Almost a meme at this point:
         | 
         | > I am not trying to suggest Duck Duck Go or Bing are actually
         | better overall
         | 
         | Kagi is, however. Well worth putting your money where your
         | mouth is and supporting them.
        
           | lofaszvanitt wrote:
           | They said something like this after I exhausted my daily
           | search allowance during the beta: go search somewhere else. I
           | mean who are these disrespectful little pricks/snotty kids?
           | :DDD
        
           | gremlinsinc wrote:
           | Honestly, It's the same price as copilot, which is imho one
           | of my biggest tools in my coding arsenal currently.
           | 
           | I don't think it should be priced as high. I think they
           | should add other services maybe w/ their own prices, like a
           | photonmail competitor, and api's so people can build things
           | off their tech but pay per query, etc.
           | 
           | I think they could at least have tiers like 100/month 1, 400
           | searches for $2.99, 1000 for $5.99, unlimited for 8.99.
           | They'd reach a bigger audience, which would likely mean more
           | dollars overall. If I were them, I'd also create a mobile app
           | that's completely free, just to get people hooked on the
           | results while using mobile, or maybe have some privacy-based
           | ads in the app, though the actual search results would have
           | none, and remove that for paid accounts.
        
           | danjoredd wrote:
           | Im thinking on going with Searx instead. I don't want to pay
           | money, and I already have a server I use for a variety of
           | reasons. I get why most wouldn't want to do that...self
           | hosting isn't for everybody. But I would prefer it to paying
           | someone else or having my data sold
        
           | kvandy wrote:
           | Kagi has been a delightful experience for me for two months.
           | Don't think I'm ever going back.
        
           | _jab wrote:
           | Interesting - haven't heard of Kagi before but I looked them
           | up and I can definitely see how a subscription-funded search
           | engine leads to a better incentive structure. But can you
           | provide qualitative examples of how your experience has been
           | better than on Google?
        
             | Karunamon wrote:
             | - Result relevance seems on par with Google about five
             | years ago. Very rare that I need to go past page 1.
             | 
             | - Advanced search operators actually work. When you quote
             | something it actually searches for that exact string, when
             | you minus something it actually excludes it.
             | 
             | - Categorization in the search results; for instance all of
             | the low signal listicles can be segregated into their own
             | section.
             | 
             | - Image search that is not intentionally nerfed that will
             | just give you the image directly
             | 
             | - The ability to up and down rank specific sites from your
             | results (something you can't feasibly do without an account
             | anyways); good riddance Pinterest and spammy stack*
             | reposters
             | 
             | - DDG-like bang searches, with the ability to add custom
             | sites
             | 
             | - The obvious one: no ads or tracking or perverse
             | incentives
        
           | randmeerkat wrote:
           | So, I googled Kagi, found their link... Not only is it
           | required to create an account to use their service, they want
           | a credit card to bill as well! Hard pass.
        
             | barbazoo wrote:
             | What would you prefer? Anonymous payments? And regardless
             | of payment method, how would you avoid creating an account
             | to tie the payment to?
        
               | codalan wrote:
               | Payment via digital gift cards sold on Amazon, e.g.
               | Mullvad
               | 
               | Granted, this would probably be a very miniscule amount
               | of their users.
        
               | groby_b wrote:
               | That's not how businesses process payment. Any
               | responsible finance department will call a hard no on
               | that. (And from a consumer side, asking to pay with a
               | gift card is usually a huge red flag that a scam is
               | incoming)
        
               | willcipriano wrote:
               | I believe they mean a gift card for their service, as in
               | they should offer gift cards. Not send us $50 worth of
               | Google Play gift cards.
               | 
               | https://www.amazon.com/Mullvad-VPN-Devices-Protect-
               | Security/...
        
             | Karunamon wrote:
             | Yes, as a paid service who directly sells their primary
             | product rather than a data mining, anti-privacy homunculus
             | whose most famous product is merely a means to an end, an
             | account and payment is required. This is strictly better
             | than Google.
        
               | randmeerkat wrote:
               | DuckDuckGo is 100% privacy focused, free, and doesn't
               | require an account or credit card to use.
        
               | Karunamon wrote:
               | They are privacy focused in as much as they don't track
               | you themselves, they just hand you off to Microsoft to be
               | tracked.
               | 
               | https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/24/ddg-microsoft-tracking-
               | blo...
               | 
               | Their founder is also on record as "down ranking
               | misinformation", which is not a judgment call I want my
               | search engine making. Relevance and truth are two
               | different things.
        
               | barbazoo wrote:
               | > Their founder is also on record as "down ranking
               | misinformation"
               | 
               | https://mashable.com/article/duckduckgo-search-engine-
               | russia...
        
               | Karunamon wrote:
               | Also here, straight from the horse's mouth:
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33247856
               | 
               | The sketchy and indirect way they engage with this
               | criticism put me off of ever trusting DDG.
        
               | barbazoo wrote:
               | Thanks!
        
               | danjoredd wrote:
               | If you are into self-hosting, I hear Searx is pretty
               | good. Been thinking on setting that up on my personal
               | server so I can just stop relying on companies
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | Karunamon wrote:
               | Your goals are mutually exclusive.
        
             | bluepoint wrote:
             | Are you sure about the credit card? I signed up without
             | one. There is a free option.
        
         | honkler wrote:
         | since you talked about adtech being a bubble, I'll hijack your
         | post to recommend this book:
         | https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374538651/subprimeattenti...
        
         | crawsome wrote:
         | Devil's advocate, lots of Google services are 100% benevolent.
         | Like Google Open Fonts. Did you know most of the font licenses
         | packaged with Windows, you're not even allowed to package them
         | into a game?
        
           | kmbfjr wrote:
           | There is nothing altruistic about Google. It is all about
           | collecting as much metadata as possible to feed the ad tech
           | money pump.
           | 
           | At the very least, pulling from Google for fonts, which
           | nearly everyone does, announces the page where it begins the
           | process.
        
         | paulcole wrote:
         | You're ignoring mobile + local + timely searches which are
         | incredibly common and very valuable. Google doesn't put "heavy
         | weight" on Pinterest or "SPAM and SEO garbage" there. These
         | SERPs are full of local and useful results and paid
         | ads/placements. This is where Google's interests lie.
        
         | spijdar wrote:
         | > The only thing I really have any strong affection for is
         | YouTube, and the people and content that made the platform
         | special are constantly unhappy with it's corporate direction,
         | not to mention the utter lack of support, claiming and
         | affirming in appeals stupid pointless crap like "you said a
         | naughty word in the first ten seconds of the video" when anyone
         | with working ears can easily verify they did not.
         | 
         | This is mostly an aside, but it's worth putting into
         | perspective that many of these complaints are related to
         | Google's _ads_ and automatic monetization through ads, as well
         | as their content recommendation network /userbase.
         | 
         | In other words, I think as Google's ad-revenue shrinks (or the
         | bubble bursts), the Youtube ad policies will seem to become
         | more and more draconian, but despite all the anger towards
         | Youtube, the alternatives involve... no (automatic)
         | monetization at all.
         | 
         | I don't think a lot of people are really conscious of how a lot
         | of modern Youtube (specifically the big content creators who
         | have made careers out of Google's monetization options) are
         | implicitly reliant on Google's ad-tech bubble. And most people
         | are pretty derisive of Google's attempts at alternative
         | monetization e.g. youtube premium. I fear when the bubble
         | bursts (or just shrinks a lot), a lot of the high quality
         | content people enjoy on youtube will burst or shrink with it.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | branon wrote:
           | Big YouTubers have seen the writing on the wall, and have
           | been diversifying income streams for years. A lot of artists
           | are migrating towards the "patron" model (think Renaissance
           | patronage, but crowd-sourced) using tools like Patreon or
           | Liberapay. This strikes me as inherently more pure than
           | throwing videos at Google's algorithm to see which one can
           | bring home the biggest slice of automatic-ad-revenue pie.
           | 
           | The attention economy is doomed, too many people are online
           | now for it to be viable. Patronage and connecting with
           | followers will come to dominate. Not to oversimplify, but
           | there's a theory that all an artist needs to be financially
           | stable is 1,000 true fans chipping in a few dollars a month.
           | Google's YouTube middleware currently occupies a comfortable
           | niche in the bringup process required to meet that figure...
           | but they're ultimately nonessential.
           | 
           | As the bubble shrinks, creators will look back and wonder why
           | they ever bothered driving millions of random people toward a
           | platform that mostly pays out to Google.
        
             | itcrowd wrote:
             | I agree with most of what you say here, but a few small
             | points to contest:
             | 
             | First, it's not just big YouTubers moving towards the
             | patron model. I see many smaller creators doing the same,
             | and I'm some cases thriving.
             | 
             | Second, I don't agree that the patron model will become the
             | dominant model. I think this line of thinking is more of a
             | medieval model from which the word derives. In terms of the
             | number of people paying by ads & PII or through patronage,
             | the ads& PII crowd will win. (the dollar value per
             | contribution might be lower).
             | 
             | Third, I don't have any reason to believe that creators
             | will "look back and wonder" why they would like to attract
             | a million viewers. I think it might be a very good way to
             | advertise to their patr(e)on-age.
             | 
             | Finally, there is another revenue model of direct
             | sponsorship / placed ads which you do not seem to consider.
             | I think it is a major contributor to the economics of
             | medium-large creators.
             | 
             | Maybe my gut feeling is a response to your notion of the
             | "attention economy being doomed" because "there are too
             | many people online". To me, it seems the opposite. The
             | attention economy is _thriving_ because there are _so many
             | people_ online.
             | 
             | (Interesting topic! Thanks for making me type all of this)
        
             | spijdar wrote:
             | > Google's YouTube middleware currently occupies a
             | comfortable niche in the bringup process required to meet
             | that figure... but they're ultimately nonessential.
             | 
             | I disagree with this, though I'd love (and genuinely hope)
             | to be proven wrong. It's hard for me to imagine starting
             | from nothing and building up a profitable following the way
             | people have on Youtube without Youtube's userbase and
             | infamous "algorithm".
             | 
             | It might just be a matter of semantics, though. I agree
             | that content/media existed before Youtube and will exist
             | long after it -- but I'm not sure Youtube's niche of non-
             | traditional content creators without the money or social
             | networks traditionally needed to publish media could do so
             | in its absence.
             | 
             | More prosaically, there's a big gulf between starting out,
             | and reaching 1,000 true fans throwing some money at you
             | every month. Youtube plays a pretty big role IMO in
             | bridging that gap, and without it, only people with
             | traditional support networks or in higher economic classes
             | will be able to afford "doing content creation" full time.
             | 
             | I feel like a common response (and one sort of echoed in
             | another reply) is "Good, let's bring the old internet back,
             | when people did things for passion and not money". I
             | sympathize a lot with this, but I also think a lot of
             | content I enjoy is the product of people putting tons of
             | time and effort into making "good content" -- time spent
             | doing pretty miserable and uninteresting work. So I'm
             | inclined to think the end of the "youtube era" will bring
             | the end of a certain class of creator.
             | 
             | Not that I think this is preventable, since like others
             | here, I think the whole ad thing is unsustainable, and
             | we're seeing more and more writing on the wall. Hopefully
             | Patreon + co. and more decentralized content aggregators
             | like Mastodon can fill the void well enough.
        
           | smoldesu wrote:
           | > the alternatives involve... no (automatic) monetization at
           | all.
           | 
           | This is 100% what it boils down to. Google is obviously not
           | the only advertiser in town, but _if_ the ad bubble pops, so
           | does the free content economy on the internet. Some people
           | will argue the internet would be better because of it, but
           | the transition away from ad-supported viewership would
           | decimate the web we know.
        
             | treis wrote:
             | Google is the only advertiser in town that matters. There's
             | some private clubs you can go to (Facebook's properties,
             | Amazon) but for generally placing ads or selling ad space
             | on the internet it's Google.
        
             | jchw wrote:
             | I'd argue the internet I liked most was decimated by the
             | current free content economy, though.
             | 
             | I'm not saying I disagree with you by any means; a lot of
             | what we would lose would be a great shame. Only the
             | strongest creators could probably find a way to stay alive,
             | likely through more direct sponsorship (both Patreon and
             | well, traditional direct sponsors. You already see this a
             | ton on YouTube anyways.)
             | 
             | I get that the internet will never be as scrappy and
             | experimental as it once was, but the way monetization
             | spread rewarded _a lot_ of people who thrived off of
             | essentially taking free stuff and monetizing it. I mean a
             | lot. Think of  "prominent" "content creators" and
             | "influencers" like Fuck Jerry. In the process of doing
             | this, I think all of the fun was milked out of everything.
             | Today's internet feels like a giant strip mall.
             | 
             | I really do wonder if this is the best middleground we can
             | get.
             | 
             | Of course, if ad-tech does turn out to be more or less a
             | giant bubble and that bubble pops, we lose everything
             | anyways, without any chance to transition, and all of the
             | anguish was for naught. It feels like quite a gamble to
             | keep hinging on this so strongly for the best content
             | online, so I hope that the patronage model continues to
             | grow.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | _aavaa_ wrote:
         | I agree, which is why manually blacklisting them became a
         | necessity for me. I loved uBlocklist, and would recommend it
         | for anyone not on Kagi.
         | 
         | https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/ublacklist/pncfbmi...
        
         | BolexNOLA wrote:
         | > I have no idea if I'll be able to locate it through the sea
         | of blog SPAM and SEO garbage tomorrow
         | 
         | If I have to sift through one more useless AI-generated/copy-
         | paste article where they spend half the damn thing explaining
         | the most basic stuff and then _still_ not answering my question
         | (or giving a simple  "yes/no"), I'm going to lose it. It's not
         | even just technical answers. I have to basically type
         | "...reddit" or some forum I like to get ANYTHING useful
         | anymore. It's even just basic media questions.
         | 
         | Example: "Is there an [IP sequel] being made?"
         | 
         | First 20 results: "Is there an [IP sequel] being made? Read
         | more to find out. First what is IP? IP was released in 2012. It
         | was made by such and such starring such and such as they go on
         | an adventure to do the thing..." _4 paragraphs later_ "There is
         | no information on a sequel. Thanks for reading!"
         | 
         | Yes I've learned to spot these as have most folks around here I
         | imagine, but holy hell they will eat 2-3 pages of results
         | sometimes! It's infuriating!
        
           | telchior wrote:
           | This kind of problem isn't just because of search, it's also
           | because of content creators. I believe what all content
           | creators quickly learn is, on any given topic, the funnel is
           | extremely wide on the most introductory knowledge and then
           | becomes uselessly narrow as you drill into specific info.
           | 
           | To use a specific example, the other day I was trying to
           | learn more about programming shaders. There is an unending
           | number of basic level tutorials: what is a shader? There are
           | probably 500,000 people searching for that topic. But if I
           | want to figure out a UV scrolling texture, I'm screwed,
           | there's almost nothing. Because the audience for that is
           | maybe 500 people.
           | 
           | There's just no financial (or even reputational!) incentive
           | for anyone to write an article / make a video on something
           | requiring deeper expertise. There is stuff out there, of
           | course, created by the tiny minority of passionate
           | enthusiasts or dedicated professionals. Google is really
           | searching for a needle in a very, very large haystack. And I
           | think Google (and other search) has been more and more
           | challenged by that over the years as the internet moved from
           | a niche enthusiast place to a mass market place. Particularly
           | when all the hay is spending massive amounts of effort on
           | trying to pretend to be a needle.
           | 
           | tl;dr I despise using Google (or DuckDuckGo) these days but I
           | don't think all the blame should be assigned to the engines,
           | they're actually facing a tough problem. (Not that you
           | personally were saying that, but this is mainly a thread of
           | hating on Google.)
        
             | BolexNOLA wrote:
             | >This kind of problem isn't just because of search, it's
             | also because of content creators.
             | 
             | See I think this becomes chicken/egg real quick too, though
             | I do think Google is more to blame. Content creators are
             | responding to the incentives google created. Think back to
             | when sites would have all sorts of keywords buried in
             | metadata and/or have blogs that were complete nonsense full
             | of keywords that weren't easily findable on their sites.
             | They did it because they were rewarded. So what did google
             | do? They penalized it, and voila! It stopped. This was
             | like...2014? Maybe earlier?
             | 
             | Ultimately if google wants better search results they need
             | to go back to the drawing board. They need to
             | disincentivize blog spam.
        
         | lordnacho wrote:
         | I use search for coding a lot, and lately I've noticed it's
         | hard to find what I'm after. If I'm looking for some small
         | thing like what an sftp command looks like, I don't want an SEO
         | essay about why SSH is great and we should all use encryption.
         | I just want the example line.
         | 
         | This seems to be what ChatGPT can give me. It doesn't always
         | work, but it also doesn't beat around the bush.
        
           | aejnsn wrote:
           | 100%. I have found it sooo difficult to trace
           | framework/library documentation down that 3-4 years ago was
           | first few results. Something has ruined their algorithm.
        
           | quantified wrote:
           | Yet.
        
           | _jab wrote:
           | Yup, exactly the same experience here. It feels like there's
           | been a recent wave of SEO-optimized websites that
           | consistently pop up when I google specific errors, but rarely
           | have literally anything of substance.
        
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