[HN Gopher] Bayes Theorem for project managers (2010)
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       Bayes Theorem for project managers (2010)
        
       Author : Tomte
       Score  : 43 points
       Date   : 2023-01-24 09:49 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (eight2late.wordpress.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (eight2late.wordpress.com)
        
       | apwheele wrote:
       | At work, we have a team that is working on various agile
       | dashboards for project metrics (acceleration or burndown or
       | whatever, all the stuff I would guess the majority of folks
       | commenting on Hacker News dislike).
       | 
       | I've wondered if having structured input from various people +
       | some training on making calibrated predictions (Hubbard's How to
       | Measure Anything is a good resource relevant to project
       | management), wouldn't be better. At least from a global
       | perspective of "are we going to deliver on time".
        
         | Buttons840 wrote:
         | Just give everyone on the team access to an anonymous survey
         | app of sorts. Let everyone on the team anonymously report the
         | percentage of work they believe is completed. If you care about
         | a deadline, let everyone anonymously report whether they
         | believe the deadline will be met. Maybe weight the individual
         | votes by how accurate they've been in the past. (To be clear,
         | only those doing the actual work get a vote here.)
         | 
         | Middle management will hate it, but perhaps upper management
         | might find it helpful.
         | 
         | Is this similar to what you are suggesting?
        
       | jiggawatts wrote:
       | Reality:
       | 
       | "Don't worry, this is just a quick one-hour planning session, and
       | the times are just estimates anyway."
       | 
       |  _...a month passes..._
       | 
       | "We need to have a conversation about why you're falling behind
       | on your deliverables. It's too late to alter the deadline, it's a
       | hard date that has been circulated and accepted by all
       | stakeholders!"
        
       | MeteorMarc wrote:
       | PM says: yeah, this is for other projects, my project is
       | different
        
       | plasticchris wrote:
       | When I was young I would try to give confidence intervals for my
       | estimates, and they would always be ignored.
        
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