[HN Gopher] Annotated: Sam Bankman-Fried's "FTX Pre-Mortem Overv...
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       Annotated: Sam Bankman-Fried's "FTX Pre-Mortem Overview"
        
       Author : adrian_mrd
       Score  : 207 points
       Date   : 2023-01-25 16:38 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.mollywhite.net)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.mollywhite.net)
        
       | linuxftw wrote:
       | The way I see it, Alameda is the real criminal here. They clearly
       | operated with the criminal intent to take the assets, and
       | distribute who knows how.
       | 
       | I think it's perfectly possible that SBF is just dumb, and
       | Alameda exploited his stupidity.
       | 
       | Once everything crashed, Alameda was all too happy to turn
       | state's witness. SBF's best chance at this point is to secure his
       | own plea deal with proof that Alameda is lying to the feds and
       | scapegoating him. I don't see the feds going for this, they hate
       | ever admitting they're wrong, but I suspect that's how it's going
       | to play out.
        
         | jacksnipe wrote:
         | Except that Alameda was also run by SBF, as laid out in the
         | article.
        
         | rodgerd wrote:
         | This is where I wish I could post the Scooby-Doo unmasking
         | meme.
         | 
         | "Turns out Sam was the ghost all along!"
        
         | kencausey wrote:
         | SBF was a founder and officer of Alameda.
        
       | low_tech_love wrote:
       | Steal a handful of dollars: get thrown in a dungeon for years and
       | be forgotten by history (or worse).
       | 
       | Steal billions of dollars: get a free home vacation and the
       | chance to explain yourself and sway the public opinion!
        
       | mrguyorama wrote:
       | Just a reminder RE:Making investors whole.
       | 
       | If you defraud investors, but magically a trillion dollars
       | appears in your bank account and you distribute it equally to all
       | investors you defrauded and they somehow walk home with 2X what
       | they invested, YOU HAVE STILL COMMITTED A CRIME. The crime is not
       | owing money to investors, the crime is taking their money and
       | using it as the company's money. It doesn't matter if your
       | bonkers ideas of ownership allows to you make each and every
       | investor a trillion dollars.
        
       | grammers wrote:
       | That's a great summary, putting everything in perspective.
        
       | simple10 wrote:
       | Molly published the front end tool (annotate) she used to create
       | the writeup. This would be an amazing VS Code plugin!
       | 
       | https://github.com/molly/annotate
        
       | CydeWeys wrote:
       | This is one of the best fiskings I've seen in a long time. Just
       | absolutely brutal.
        
       | bradgessler wrote:
       | What annotations software is this? All news should be reported
       | this way when source documents are available.
       | 
       | Edit: scrolled to the bottom of the page and found
       | https://github.com/molly/annotate
        
         | chubot wrote:
         | Agreed this is awesome! The author understands how to use the
         | web: HTML, CSS, and JS (which is unfortunately rare in 2023)
        
         | ibebrett86 wrote:
         | https://kaimerra.com/kaimerra-graffiti
         | 
         | I had worked on a tool for hosting collaborative editing of
         | these kinds of things, but we are currently evaluating whether
         | we should pursue it further.
        
         | jtbayly wrote:
         | So it's just the front-end, relying on you to manually write
         | all the HTML. I'd love some software to make _generating_ these
         | (or similar) annotated documents easily. Any ideas?
        
           | bradgessler wrote:
           | Yeah I was thinking the same thing. A GUI where the original
           | text material is loaded, then you highlight it and write the
           | annotations. Bonus of each annotation could be
           | tweeted/tooted/whatevered and include open graph screenshots
           | of the annotation.
           | 
           | Also, I'm sure you didn't mean to trivialize the project, but
           | it's more than "just a front end". The design is what's
           | really great about it.
        
             | cma wrote:
             | Sounds similar to Ted Nelson's Xanadu project.
        
           | sorokod wrote:
           | Cool idea, why don't you have a go at it and share the
           | outcome on HN.
        
           | batmenace wrote:
           | Fermat's Library offers something that comes relatively close
           | https://fermatslibrary.com/margins
        
             | bradgessler wrote:
             | Slightly tangential: is there software that converts multi-
             | LaTeX PDFs into responsive HTML in a reasonable way? I'd
             | read more of these papers if they were more viewable on a
             | phone-size viewport.
        
           | linusha wrote:
           | You might find https://web.hypothes.is/ helpful.
        
             | Denzel wrote:
             | Does Hypothesis require a cloud account that syncs your
             | annotations? If so, these products are a non-starter for
             | any corporate environment, which is unfortunate.
             | 
             | Obsidian gets this right. Most software these days doesn't
             | which is a shame.
        
           | lofatdairy wrote:
           | I assume there's probably a way to modify or configure MD-
           | based SSGs to produce side notes instead of footnotes.
           | Hilariously I think you could use RMD because that has built-
           | in sidenote functionality but it would probably require some
           | manual effort to produce those nice highlights. That said,
           | Molly is also making use of footnotes inside her margin
           | notes, so if that's the goal my suggestions might not work.
        
         | jzelinskie wrote:
         | My team recently built NextJS-based site with sets of
         | annotations on the research paper our project is based on
         | (Google Zanzibar):
         | 
         | https://authzed.com/zanzibar
         | 
         | https://github.com/authzed/zanzibar-annotated
         | 
         | Could be easily forked and used for other purposes. Happy to
         | facilitate if we get any requests in the GitHub issues.
        
           | molly0x57 wrote:
           | This is super cool!
        
       | SergeAx wrote:
       | I really love that format and wish there were more content like
       | that!
        
       | bmitc wrote:
       | Sam Bankman-Fried is something else. He seems to be incapable of
       | stopping talking, both before and after this saga. He also seems
       | just purely delusional. He's co-conspirators have readily plead
       | guilty. He has a tough hill to climb.
       | 
       | Regarding Sam Trabucco, why do we not hear anything about him in
       | these proceedings? How is it possible that he wasn't involved
       | given he just up and left in just August 2022? Why hasn't he been
       | charged? This seems very strange to me.
       | 
       | https://protos.com/scoop-ex-alameda-exec-sam-trabucco-bought...
        
         | Aaronstotle wrote:
         | I've wondered the same thing, he leaves in August 2022 and
         | there has been no update on his legal standing. Presumably he
         | is a witness/cooperating?
        
         | MuffinFlavored wrote:
         | > FTX International and Alameda were both legitimately and
         | independently profitable businesses in 2021, each making
         | billions.
         | 
         | From the article. What are your thoughts given this?
         | 
         | > Again, FTX's and Alameda's 2021 tax returns suggest they were
         | massively unprofitable.7
         | 
         | Ah. I missed this point right next to it.
        
           | breck wrote:
           | > FTX's and Alameda's 2021 tax returns suggest they were
           | massively unprofitable
           | 
           | The source for that line is this: https://archive.is/LZ2FM
           | 
           | But it is more complicated than that. And unfortunately the
           | "journalists" have done a bad job of documenting the actual
           | sources.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | whatshisface wrote:
         | "At no point was my client aware that FTX was insolvent, and I
         | have 100s of emails and public statements for you to read if
         | you don't believe me." - what a lawyer would hypothetically
         | say.
        
           | Invictus0 wrote:
           | Apparently he told CZ it was insolvent in a phone call: https
           | ://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2022/11/16/binance-...
        
         | baby-yoda wrote:
         | Is Trabucco the Lou Pai[0] of this scandal? How much did he
         | walk away with?
         | 
         | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lou_Pai
        
           | bmitc wrote:
           | Reading into that guy is something else. Imagine literally
           | owning a 14,000 foot mountain. Absurd.
        
         | pavlov wrote:
         | Maybe Trabucco is a voluntary witness for the prosecution and
         | they don't want to dilute what he's going to say at the trial?
        
           | bmitc wrote:
           | But why isn't he charged as well? His timing on leaving is
           | quite suspicious, and there seems to be no way in which he
           | wasn't both aware and a participant of what was going on.
           | Plus, his personal purchases seem quite suspect, if the
           | claims in the article are true.
        
       | breck wrote:
       | Here's some constructive feedback to make this more trustworthy:
       | 
       | - Include a "View source" link to the source code for this
       | document. Everyone makes mistakes and new information comes to
       | light. You should provide a link to the GitHub source file used
       | to generate this page, so that your readers can see the version
       | history and all changes for the lifetime of the article since
       | publication.
       | 
       | - Include the actual sources. A number of your sources, such as
       | #7, are links to secondary sources, that have dead links to the
       | primary sources. You should copy any primary sources and include
       | them in the repo with your article.
       | 
       | "But Breck, the WSJ, NYTimes, CNN, WaPo, et cetera, don't do
       | anything of those things!"
       | 
       | Yes. Exactly. You can't trust them either.
        
         | molly0x57 wrote:
         | Thanks for the suggestions! I've implemented both, and I also
         | reached out to the Forbes writer to let him know his link was
         | broken.
        
           | breck wrote:
           | Fantastic. The View source link points to: https://github.com
           | /molly/website-v2/blob/master/src/pug/page...
           | 
           | Very cool use of Pug.
           | 
           | And thanks for following up with Forbes!
           | 
           | I've really enjoyed your stuff, but wasn't sure if you really
           | cared about the truth or not. Now I know. Thank you! The
           | world needs more journalists like you!
        
       | stusmall wrote:
       | Can he just gift wrap these statements with a little tag that
       | says "To the prosecutors with love. Merry Xmas, SBF"
        
         | timmytokyo wrote:
         | I'd love to know what his parents think of what he's doing.
         | They're law professors at Stanford; they have to be aware of
         | how utterly stupid this is, don't they?
        
           | easytiger wrote:
           | Have you spent much time with humanities academics? I would
           | make no such assumptions.
        
             | __derek__ wrote:
             | They're lawyers and law professors, not humanities
             | academics.
        
               | easytiger wrote:
               | at least in UK universities law is a humanities
               | discipline. perhaps it is different there
        
               | __derek__ wrote:
               | For the most part, American law school professors are
               | actual lawyers with hard experience in their area of
               | expertise. That appears to be the case for Bankman-
               | Fried's parents.
        
           | grey-area wrote:
           | His parents were signatories on a beach front house bought
           | with 10m of FTX funds. That's all you need to know about his
           | parents.
        
           | yessirwhatever wrote:
           | [dead]
        
           | wmf wrote:
           | His father is reportedly conflict-averse to the extreme and
           | his mother wrote an article saying free will doesn't exist
           | therefore people aren't responsible for their crimes.
        
             | fidgewidge wrote:
             | I wonder if those two facts are connected.
        
           | notahacker wrote:
           | I imagine his parents, in addition to giving him standard
           | "don't do public speeches about the bad things you've done"
           | lawyer advice, probably also wouldn't have recommended he
           | drop out of Jane Street, make large arbitrage bets on crypto,
           | set up a exchange without proper controls and take money out
           | of that to bet on other cryptos. He may or may not be on very
           | good terms with them, but I don't think he's been following
           | their advice on big decisions for a while...
        
       | jasonhansel wrote:
       | SBF also wrote a later post about FTX US's balance sheet:
       | https://sambf.substack.com/p/ftx-us-balance-update-2023-01-1...
       | 
       | Is that post at all accurate or is it even more lies?
        
         | Marazan wrote:
         | It confuses customer funds with ftx.us assets so no, it is just
         | more self serving lies.
        
         | low_tech_love wrote:
         | Balance sheet: =====                 Money I got   100.000
         | Money I owe    90.000       Total         +10.000
         | 
         | See? Totally solvent bruh!
        
         | TacticalCoder wrote:
         | Total lies: the current bankruptcy CEO says that balance sheet
         | accounts for hundreds of millions in a company called LedgerX
         | (IIRC, out of memory) which FTX.us acquired with... Money
         | fraudulently siphoned from investors and customers.
         | 
         | So the money used to buy LedgerX (and which LedgerX still
         | partially has) should at some point be seized.
         | 
         | FTX.us is insolvent too.
        
       | inasio wrote:
       | Hooray for diffs, Molly joked about formatting issues (triple
       | space), SBF probably read it and fixed it
        
       | JCM9 wrote:
       | SBF's lawyers probably struggling to get him to keep quiet. What
       | he keeps saying can and will very much be used against him.
        
       | Symmetry wrote:
       | > No one in their right mind would use the word "solvency" to
       | describe this.
       | 
       | No, you absolutely can. They were balance-sheet insolvent but
       | cash-flow solvent from when they took the money until when people
       | found out.
        
       | breck wrote:
       | > Judge Dorsey ultimately overruled objections to their retention
       | by two individual FTX creditors.
       | 
       | I think Molly White defaults to too much credibility in judges
       | and lawyers.
       | 
       | SBF's main argument is that Sullivan & Cromwell misled him into
       | going the Chapter 11 route, which he later learned was more
       | motivated by its ability to make hundreds of millions rather than
       | helping his customers. He made a mistake in trusting them. All
       | entrepreneurs make mistakes in trusting people they should not.
       | 
       | He admits to serious mistakes with Alameda etc, but believes
       | those were recoverable. I would agree--the crypto market is huge
       | and so important--and think as long as all customers get their
       | money back, that it was fixable.
       | 
       | I think S&C has done a terrible job with FTX since taking over
       | since the bankruptcy, so find SBF's argument to have merit.
       | 
       | SBF's main message to entrepreneurs, which I think is a good one:
       | be more transparent, and be careful who you trust.
       | 
       | Source: I think I have $30,000 in my FTX.us account, so if
       | anything I should be biased against SBF/FTX. But I am currently
       | dealing with a dishonest lawyer and incompetent judge in the San
       | Diego Family Law Cartel, so I am biased against the system at the
       | moment.
        
         | shkkmo wrote:
         | SBF's main mistake wasn't trusting Sullivan & Cromwell. That is
         | the lie that SBF is trying to tell. While that may have been a
         | "mistake" to declare bankruptcy, it was because it reduced
         | FTX's ability to try to hide the fraud it had been
         | perpetuating.
         | 
         | FTX was already incredibly insolvent at that point because FTX
         | gave Alameda an unlimited line of credit and then used that
         | credit to take loans from Alameda to line their own pockets
         | with what was effectively FTX's customer deposits.
        
           | naijaboiler wrote:
           | >>then used that credit to take loans from Alameda to line
           | their own pockets with what was effectively FTX's customer
           | deposits.
           | 
           | that's small fraction. most were spent and lost betting the
           | crypto market
        
         | rrdharan wrote:
         | > the crypto market is ... so important
         | 
         | Citation desperately needed.
        
           | breck wrote:
           | Crypto is a 24/7 global, resilient payments network. It
           | increases the velocity and transparency of money, which will
           | have a huge impact on global economy.
           | 
           | Also, if you think customers losing a $8B to FTX is bad, wait
           | until you read about retail banks in the USA taking $30B _a
           | year_ from their customers: https://breckyunits.com/the-
           | great-bank-robbery.html
        
             | fckgw wrote:
             | When? It's been 13 years.
        
             | automatic6131 wrote:
             | >Crypto is a 24/7 global, resilient payments network.
             | 
             | Man, your mind is gonna be blown when you realise that you
             | can have that _right_ now! All you have to do is move to a
             | first world country*
             | 
             | *like the UK or any country in the EEA. US not included.
             | 
             | I jest, but my point is serious. This is already a reality
             | for anyone living in Europe. It's a political problem (is a
             | 24/7 global payment network important to people in
             | democracies), and incidentally, crypto also faces the same
             | political problem.
             | 
             | "ohhh but it's permissionless" yeah nah no one is taking in
             | magic beans for value
        
               | breck wrote:
               | > you have to do is move to a first world country*...US
               | not included.
               | 
               | I know. It's embarrassing. I remember in New Zealand in
               | 2011 had better payments tech than USA in 2023.
        
             | rodgerd wrote:
             | > Crypto is a 24/7 global, resilient payments network.
             | 
             | Which crypto?
        
               | breck wrote:
               | I pay almost all our team with NEAR coin. USA, Europe,
               | Middle East, Africa, Pakistan, India, etc.
               | 
               | No problems.
               | 
               | All of my headaches come from a the very few I can't pay
               | with crypto (Venmo, paypal, etc).
        
         | rideontime wrote:
         | How in the world would everybody get their money back except
         | via another scam token like FTT?
        
         | naijaboiler wrote:
         | It might be true that FTX customers would be better off with
         | FTX still running with or without SBF. But that does not negate
         | the fact that lending customer money to Almeda is capital F
         | fraud.
        
           | breck wrote:
           | > But that does not negate the fact that lending customer
           | money to Almeda is capital F fraud.
           | 
           | I think you are probably right here. If SBF does not have the
           | ability to make customers whole, then I agree.
        
         | Sebguer wrote:
         | S&C basically invented modern white collar crime. It's hard to
         | find outside of libraries, but: https://www.amazon.com/Law-
         | Unto-Itself-Sullivan-Cromwell/dp/... is an exceptional read on
         | their history.
         | 
         | (I still think Crypto is worthless, but the concerns about S&C
         | in this case are likely very legitimate!)
        
       | wpietri wrote:
       | I am truly grateful for people like Molly White, David Gerard,
       | and Amy Castor. As the crypto grift circus expanded and expanded,
       | I just got worn out. There was so much to pay attention to as it
       | metastasized. All those writers have been diligently following it
       | for years with a critical eye, and all of them have taken a lot
       | of heat for it. As the wheels come off, it's great to have their
       | detailed insights.
        
         | ur-whale wrote:
         | > As the crypto grift circus expanded
         | 
         | crypto != FTX
        
           | Fnoord wrote:
           | Tether isn't FTX either. And yet, both are scams.
        
           | lolinder wrote:
           | The crypto grift isn't limited to FTX, it's nearly everywhere
           | in crypto. My _great-uncle_ (who 's constantly trying to find
           | the one big break that'll make him rich) was working on
           | starting a crypto token before everything collapsed. He is in
           | his seventies and knows nothing about tech or finance, but he
           | knew crypto was the place for people who want to make quick
           | cash.
           | 
           | The whole industry has become a haven for grifters. That
           | there are a few sincere projects doesn't change that.
        
             | notch656c wrote:
             | The government made this thing called "accredited investor"
             | which is just code for not one of the poors.
             | 
             | I wish it wasn't necessary for the poors to use crypto to
             | moonshot on various grifts.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | stouset wrote:
               | Considered from an alternate perspective, the thing that
               | has allowed crypto to become the massive grift that is
               | has is the ability for anyone and everyone to speculate
               | on it without any kind of oversight, regulation, insider
               | trading protection, or guard rails of any kind.
               | 
               | I won't speak specifically to the current reglatory
               | definition of "accredited investor" which is certainly
               | worthy of some criticism, but the "investments" that
               | being one opens you up to are--on the whole--
               | _significantly_ worse than just parking your money in a
               | whole-market index fund. The few opportunities that are
               | actually worth investing in are rare and generally
               | require being on a first-name basis with the right
               | people. Not to mention, of course, knowing a priori who
               | those right people are.
               | 
               | Merely having a bunch of dollars in the bank and wanting
               | outsized returns puts you squarely in the realm of
               | suckers who will be soon parted from their money by both
               | hucksters and well-meaning idiots. Having almost no
               | dollars in the bank puts you at an even worse
               | disadvantage.
        
               | notch656c wrote:
               | Yes I believe the poors ought to be able to drop bands on
               | a well meaning idiot just as easily as the truck stop
               | stripper.
        
               | jakelazaroff wrote:
               | What exactly is the upside of the scenario you're
               | envisioning? Right now it just sounds like you wish the
               | accredited investor rule didn't exist because it makes it
               | harder to scam poor people.
        
               | notch656c wrote:
               | I would use "scam" in the sense of offering unregistered
               | securities. Not in the sense of willful fraud. In that
               | sense yes I think the poors should have as much right to
               | buy into a scam as the accredited investor.
        
               | jakelazaroff wrote:
               | Again, what's the upside here? The end result of that
               | scenario is that money gets redistributed from poor
               | people to people offering unregistered securities. Why is
               | society better off if we allow this to happen?
        
               | notch656c wrote:
               | Why is society better off when I'm allowed to drop bands
               | on the truck stop stripper instead of buying toys for my
               | kid?
               | 
               | The individual should not be forced at all steps to
               | selflessly act in the benefit of society. There are a
               | non-zero number of scenarios where unregistered
               | securities have paid off to investors. Individuals should
               | not be forced at every step to prove their acts benefit
               | collectively society.
        
               | stouset wrote:
               | Because society has a demonstrated track record of
               | "actively letting people get scammed en masse" resulting
               | in widespread misery and an enormously disproportionate
               | number of resources needing to be committed to
               | enforcement, and the current status quo--while inarguably
               | suboptimal--is clearly an improvement?
               | 
               | The libertarian ideal is akin to assuming that people are
               | frictionless spheres operating in a vacuum instead of
               | recognizing that a significant amount of laws and
               | regulation are written in metaphorical blood, and simply
               | striking them from the books just invites a return to the
               | conditions that necessitated them in the first place.
        
               | notch656c wrote:
               | What are the conditions that "necessitated" that someone
               | with a $1B value mansion as their primary residence and
               | $999,000 in the bank isn't qualified to invest in these
               | securities while someone with $1,000,001 in the bank is?
        
               | wpietri wrote:
               | Picking nits like this not only fails to advance the
               | discussion, but in my opinion makes it worse.
               | 
               | You can do the same thing with literally any rule. Why
               | does one have to be 18 to buy cigarettes, an addictive
               | product that will kill you if you use it long enough?
               | Does something magically happen at age 17.9999 plus
               | epsilon? Of course not.
               | 
               | Regulations often draw arbitrary lines because that's a
               | relatively easy way to improve a situation without
               | getting bogged down in some sort of much more complicated
               | test. E.g., we could mandate each person who wanted to
               | buy cigarettes undergo a deep psychological evaluation
               | looking at their personal history and testing their
               | ability to make truly adult decisions. But that would
               | immediately be seen as unduly burdensome (and nitpicked
               | exactly as you're doing now).
               | 
               | And in any case, you have missed or are ignoring that one
               | can now pass a test to become an accredited investor, no
               | capital requirements at all. So in addition to being
               | tiresome, your point is also out of date.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | In practice almost anyone can become an "accredited
               | investor" by simply lying on the form. I know people who
               | did this in order to invest in pre-IPO stock offerings.
               | Many financial services companies don't bother to verify
               | investor qualifications. (To be clear I am not
               | recommending that anyone break the law.)
        
           | wpietri wrote:
           | Oh? You're saying that FTX was the only bad thing to happen
           | in the crypto space?
           | 
           | This sort of tedious, disingenuous quibbling is exactly why
           | I'm grateful to the people I mentioned. Because instead of
           | having to laboriously find all the failures, I can just tell
           | you that all of this is documented in David's books, Amy's
           | blog, and Molly's projects like https://web3isgoinggreat.com/
        
           | rejectfinite wrote:
           | The medium is the message. Crypto enabled this.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | jjeaff wrote:
           | Pedo Catholic Priests != Catholic Church
        
         | detrites wrote:
         | There needs to be a differentiation between good and bad actors
         | in this drama as opposed to the lazy and inaccurate idea of
         | "the crypto grift".
         | 
         | These recent billion-dollar grifts plaguing crypto have
         | primarily been enabled by actors working steadfastly against
         | all of crypto's core principles: decentralisation, secure your
         | own money, no middle-man.
         | 
         | These players are employing all of the same tactics enabled by
         | the traditional financial system to carry out these scams:
         | centralisation, entrust someone else to secure your money,
         | employ a middle-man.
         | 
         | It's still legitimate to criticise crypto, there are many
         | issues there: projects that fall short of the goal of the
         | decentralisation, someone securing their own money can end just
         | as badly as entrusting someone not worthy of it, etc.
         | 
         | But lumping these recent events, of someone foreign to the
         | crypto community coming in and actually setting out to defraud
         | people outright, by lying to them about what they're doing, and
         | twisting the ideals of crypto into nothingness, aided notably
         | in the FTX case by continual mainstream media hype - this is a
         | scam in an of itself plain and simple. Crypto was _used_ as a
         | buzzword to sucker people in - in the very negative sense of
         | being used. Crypto wasn 't the cause here.
         | 
         | How many billions would have been lost of FTX's customers money
         | had SBF and FTX not been endlessly paraded over the mainstream
         | news, and cover-pages of major financial, news and culture
         | publications since it began?
         | 
         | It is those colossal failures of journalism, and/or conflicts
         | of interest, that need to have a light shone on them,
         | investigated and mitigated/regulated better.
         | 
         | Labelling this "the crypto grift", is actually continuing the
         | grift to an unfair even worse conclusion - blaming crypto not
         | for something done _by_ it, but for something done _to_ it.
        
           | birdyrooster wrote:
           | Just because people were unwittingly taking part in a larger
           | grift does not make it a legitimate enterprise. Ever hear of
           | racketeering and receiving stolen property?
        
           | wpietri wrote:
           | I think there are a very small number of people who were
           | interested in crypto from the get-go for what I'd consider
           | good, socially positive reasons. To the extent that those
           | people didn't cash in and are mad about how it turned out, I
           | respect their pain. It's always hard to watch the beautiful
           | dream get corrupted. It would have been a very interesting
           | alternate timeline if those few pure souls were left to
           | innovate quietly on their own for a couple of decades.
           | 
           | But as far as I can tell, the rest of it is at best, IGMFY
           | [1], and at worst just scams. And that's the great, great
           | bulk of it. I get why crypto adherents are going through a
           | there-must-be-a-pony-in-there-somewhere [2] stage. But I
           | would like to suggest that there is in fact no pony. That
           | 99+% of the "crypto community" is composed of suckers, people
           | in on the grift, and people who are simultaneously both.
           | 
           | And I'd also like to suggest that things like FTX are not
           | outliers. They are the absolutely predictable outcome of
           | people saying, "What if we make an end-run around the
           | financial regulatory apparatus and ignore all of the history
           | that drove its creation?" I understand that the
           | anarchocapitalist fantasy is that if we just end government
           | we'll all live in Shangri-La. But the reality of is the sort
           | of warlord despotism you seen in failed states. (Which, as an
           | aside, has given us another meaning for "techincal". [3])
           | 
           | Similarly, the real-world version of financial
           | anarchocapitalism is bubbles, fraud, crime, and grift driving
           | out actual development and investment. That's why every
           | successful marketplace in the world above the size of a
           | street market has significant regulation, be it internal or
           | external. I used to write financial trading software. The
           | people who I worked for were dispositionally cowboys. But
           | every one of them knew that you did not fuck with the
           | exchange and the clearing firm. And maybe the national
           | regulator, but that was a distant concern compared with the
           | people who were running the marketplace and would happily
           | clip your wings if you looked at all like you were pulling
           | something.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=IGMFY
           | 
           | [2] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/12/13/pony-somewhere/
           | 
           | [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_(vehicle)
        
             | detrites wrote:
             | Maybe because the fruits of those few well-intentioned
             | founders labours aren't blasted on the news 24/7 like SBF
             | was, doesn't mean they don't exist?
             | 
             | I've seen people in parts of South America where the
             | banking system can be completely unusable, using their
             | phone to send and receive crypto payments cheaply and
             | reliably, enabling them to safely transact with family.
             | I've heard of this also happening in Africa.
             | 
             | Others, workers from Mexico for example, working in the US,
             | are able to remit their small incomes back home for pennies
             | instead of a 15% western union bite out of it.
             | 
             | It does have functions and utility that does work, and they
             | are the same functions envisioned by the OG's.
        
               | crispyambulance wrote:
               | > Others, workers from Mexico for example, working in the
               | US, are able to remit their small incomes back home for
               | pennies instead of a 15% western union bite out of it.
               | 
               | ... and ALSO occasionally have the value of explode or
               | implode drastically because it's so volatile and
               | extremely dangerous to use as actual currency.
               | 
               | And anyway, where are you getting that western union
               | takes 15%? For fun, just looked up the fee on western
               | union, to transfer $1000 cash from USA to Mexico as cash,
               | is an $8 fee.
        
               | wpietri wrote:
               | One, I never said a good side didn't exist. In fact, I
               | was careful to not say that. So easy on the straw men.
               | 
               | Two, I have been hearing vague, anecdotal claims like
               | this for years. It reminds me of how back in the day I
               | would get vague, anecdotal claims for why open mail
               | relays were useful to people. But if you want to claim a
               | _meaningful fraction_ of crypto activity is valuable in
               | ways for which there are no equivalent, you 'll have to
               | provide data.
               | 
               | Three, I'm very skeptical that there aren't other good
               | non-crypto ways to solve the nominal problems. Good or
               | better, really. As an example, take M-Pesa. [1] It
               | started around the same time as Bitcoin, but has done
               | vastly more to bank the unbanked in Africa. If you'd like
               | to demonstrate actual superiority for significant use
               | cases, I'm all ears. But I'm coming up on a decade of
               | dealing with vague, handwavey replies about how crypto is
               | akshually good, so I'm really going to insist on
               | specifics here.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa
        
           | lolinder wrote:
           | It's hard at this point for me to _not_ blame crypto-the-
           | technology and crypto-the-culture for the repeated and
           | spectacular failures of crypto-the-industry. It 's not like
           | FTX was an isolated incident. It's becoming sort of a
           | scapegoat for crypto enthusiasts because it was such a big
           | deal, but practically everything that has come out of the
           | crypto space since Bitcoin and Ethereum has been a grift to
           | some degree or another.
           | 
           | Something about crypto quickly and irreparably drew the get-
           | rich-quick crowd, and I don't think there's any coming back
           | from that. Where that kind of person gathers, scams abound.
        
             | wpietri wrote:
             | Exactly. I think there was a tipping point. The only
             | question for me is how many times you can shear the same
             | sheep. There have been so many bubbles here and somehow
             | people kept coming back for every shiny new idea. DAO, ICO,
             | NFT, etc. But given the way NFTs never really took off plus
             | the ongoing domino-fall of major crypto names, maybe the
             | brand value of crypto has finally gone so far negative that
             | the space is done. Fingers crossed, anyhow.
        
           | Yizahi wrote:
           | The only problem that even "good" actors in the tokenbro
           | space usually take these principles: decentralisation, secure
           | your own money, no middle-man, and then assign to them
           | positive values from the: centralisation, entrust someone
           | else to secure your money, employ a middle-man.
           | 
           | When confronted on the any viability of any of the "good"
           | principles, they inevitably mix and match "good" and "bad"
           | principles and values as they see fit, just to keep up their
           | narrative. E.g. take a mostly decentralised network which is
           | easily clogged to a standstill and then claim it's a great
           | virtual currency medium. When asked why, they inevitably
           | describe mostly or completely centralised "improvement" to
           | the said network. Decentralised rent seeking, which is not so
           | enticing even in the theoretical description inevitably gets
           | to the point where centralised gatekeepers can can control
           | and ban bad actors and anyone really when they see fit. And
           | so on.
           | 
           | tl;dr the so called "good" actors are mostly two types of
           | people - first type are committed anachists and libertarians
           | who sincerely want to use what they promote and sell. And
           | another type are disingenious liars, who promote libertarian
           | systems to the commoners all the while promising that nothing
           | really would change when commoners would adopt said systems,
           | and would get only incredible benefits. I consider this
           | second type the same as "bad" actors really.
        
             | detrites wrote:
             | See, this is a fair criticism, and founded.
             | 
             | Note also how similar it is to FTX - it's bad actors
             | pretending to champion principles they are actually working
             | against, whether unwittingly or otherwise.
             | 
             | The part I would disagree on, is where you yourself seem to
             | be uncertain, with a contradictory stance of labelling
             | "bad" actors as "good".
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | doogerdog wrote:
         | I also use Molly White's write-ups to loosely follow the
         | everlasting crypto train wreck. This particular one is
         | amazingly concise and easy to read. I hope she keeps it up.
         | There is no way I would have the energy to look up all of this
         | on my own.
        
           | wpietri wrote:
           | Agreed! And I should mention that Molly has a Substack:
           | https://substack.com/profile/6775195-molly-white
           | 
           | I pay her money because I am glad to have her pushing back
           | against the tide of cash funding crypto promotion.
           | 
           | The other two have Patreons that I also support:
           | 
           | https://www.patreon.com/davidgerard/
           | 
           | https://www.patreon.com/amycastor/
        
             | SilasX wrote:
             | Hold on there. If you're getting coverage like this, where
             | someone comes and takes flattering photos of you, that's
             | the kind of thing you get when you or your supports can
             | fund a PR team to wrangle major journalists into covering
             | you. I think she's fine on support.
             | 
             | https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/29/molly-
             | w...
             | 
             | https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/11/business/meet-
             | molly-w...
             | 
             | https://www.protocol.com/fintech/molly-white-web3-crypto-
             | ske...
             | 
             | Doesn't mean the criticisms aren't necessary or good, just
             | speaking to the issue of whether you've found a shoestring
             | operation, barely able to survive.
        
               | wpietri wrote:
               | Excellent FUD. No actual claims, just casting vague
               | aspersions based on nothing but some absolutely generic
               | photos that are typical of what a newspaper photographer
               | will produce.
               | 
               | As long as we're making unsupported allegations, can you
               | prove that you aren't funded by the crypto industry or
               | otherwise benefiting financially from crypto? Because it
               | seems suspicious that you're going to go out of your way
               | to produce high-quality FUD for free.
        
               | tasuki wrote:
               | > takes flattering photos of you
               | 
               | You know, some people just look good? From the photos you
               | linked, the second one even has rather unflattering
               | lighting.
        
               | molly0x57 wrote:
               | lol, I don't have a PR team. None of those articles were
               | solicited by me.
        
         | baobabKoodaa wrote:
         | I don't like seeing Molly White and David Gerard in the same
         | sentence. Molly White is a legit journalist with the mind of a
         | scientist who cares about truth. David Gerard is a crank who
         | will take any story and spin it to support his "crypto bad"
         | narrative. They both like making fun of crypto, but that's
         | about where the similarities end.
        
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