[HN Gopher] To Explain or to Predict? (2010) [pdf]
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       To Explain or to Predict? (2010) [pdf]
        
       Author : steppi
       Score  : 19 points
       Date   : 2023-01-15 17:19 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.stat.berkeley.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.stat.berkeley.edu)
        
       | steppi wrote:
       | I think this paper really cuts to the heart of the distinction
       | Leo Breiman was exploring in his classic _Statistical Modeling:
       | The Two Cultures_ [0]. The idea here is that real distinction is
       | not essentially in terms of assumptions or philosophy, but in
       | terms of goals. The boundaries are more fuzzy when it comes to
       | the methods themselves, and there are always tradeoffs between
       | building a model to predict or building a model to try to
       | understand the underlying phenomena.
       | 
       | [0] https://projecteuclid.org/journals/statistical-
       | science/volum...
        
         | karmakaze wrote:
         | I was thinking along these lines when considering if/how a
         | person speaking their first language knows the grammar of it.
         | It's well internalized and unless they study language later in
         | life may never really be able to speak clearly about it
         | although they can certainly apply it.
         | 
         | I ran into this when I was trying to find out about the
         | challenging grammatical structure of Japanese that I'd read
         | about. It said that it's similar to Korean (which I can speak
         | at approximately preschool level with my parents). It then
         | occurred to me that I have no clue what the grammatical
         | structure is, while comprehending and constructing valid
         | (though informal/unrespectful) speech.
         | 
         | I find a similar pattern with software development. I've done
         | so much hobby/solo coding that much of what I know doesn't have
         | names, or I discover what they're called much later. Now I'm
         | consciously relearning what I internally know so that I can
         | share it.
        
           | steppi wrote:
           | It's an interesting example. I experienced something similar
           | learning to play guitar by ear from a young age and then
           | going back to learn proper music theory as an adult. I'd
           | learned to improvise over chords in any key just by feel,
           | without really understanding what was going on. My playing
           | actually became more wooden as a result of thinking things
           | through more. It seems like a lot of human learning is based
           | on statistical/associative pattern matching like this and
           | real expertise requires our brains to master both prediction
           | and explanation and combine them skillfully.
        
             | karmakaze wrote:
             | I wouldn't initially have expected being consciously aware
             | to be necessary for mastery. I do find that being able to
             | teach brings you to a new level, so there's something to
             | that. I'm also able to cut my search space more concisely
             | by being able to identify/name the problem or solution path
             | than to find it by feel.
             | 
             | That's an interesting point about a more 'wooden' result. I
             | believe that has a name where being consciously aware of
             | what you're doing lowers ability, or in this case
             | creativity or subjective evaluation. I believe that
             | dip/plateau can again be surpassed as if you'd learned
             | consciously first then internalized to gain proficiency.
             | Alternatively, you could 'get in the zone' by turning off
             | analytical overthinking somehow.
        
               | steppi wrote:
               | I think I would have eventually pushed through the dip,
               | but I ended up badly injuring the elbow on my fretting
               | hand side. This was when I was around 20. It was maybe
               | for the best. I ended up getting into math instead which
               | has lead me down an interesting path.
               | 
               | My impression is that real mastery requires periods of
               | flow and periods of deliberate thought. When performing
               | you want to flow, but practice should also incorporate
               | the conscious and deliberate. Having the meta-cognition
               | to reflect on where you are, where you want to be, and
               | having the ability to plan how to get there are very
               | important. I think this holds true beyond music.
        
       | eternalban wrote:
       | Cited "influential paper" in OP: _Studies in the Logic of
       | Explanation_ , Hempel, Oppenheim, 1948
       | 
       | https://www.sfu.ca/~jillmc/Hempel%20and%20Oppenheim.pdf
        
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