[HN Gopher] Revealed: Exxon made 'breathtakingly' accurate clima...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Revealed: Exxon made 'breathtakingly' accurate climate predictions
       in 70s & 80s
        
       Author : helsinkiandrew
       Score  : 133 points
       Date   : 2023-01-12 19:05 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theguardian.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theguardian.com)
        
       | kingstoned wrote:
       | It reminds me of tobacco industry. Check out this article:
       | 
       | https://pandodaily.com/2015/06/30/tobacco-industry-will-kill...
        
         | LarryMullins wrote:
         | American propagandist and inventor of "PR", Edward Bernays, is
         | infamous for convincing American women to smoke cigarettes. But
         | privately, he wanted his own wife to quit.
        
         | lordnacho wrote:
         | Tobacco is a good one actually. A legendary statistician, IIRC
         | Fisher(?), came up with a bunch of reasons why the statistics
         | might not show causality. As in, how do we know it isn't just
         | people who were at higher risk of dying that smoked? He had a
         | whole bunch of these statistical critical thinking type
         | objections that are all very valid from an epistemological
         | point of view.
         | 
         | Climate change actually has the same. There's a bunch of stats
         | and a bunch of "yeah but what if" things that have been dealt
         | with over the years.
        
         | nunez wrote:
         | Wow; this is insane.
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | It's an apt comparison because many of the science deniers
         | started their careers with the tobacco industry. For example,
         | this guy is on Fox News a lot -- he started with tobacco but
         | moved on to things like claiming banning DDT killed people
         | (funded as part of the tobacco industry's opposition to public
         | health agencies in Africa whose anti-smoking campaigns were
         | cutting into sales), climate change denial, and COVID-19
         | misinformation and skepticism about vaccines:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Milloy
        
           | mdp2021 wrote:
           | > _skepticism_
           | 
           | This whole picture some will read as an invitation to
           | skepticism. <<Science>> does not exist in a vacuum - as this
           | very submission re-shows.
        
       | LatteLazy wrote:
       | Oh great, we're at the "pretend we didn't know and blame the
       | people who sold us the gun" stage of refusing to admit we don't
       | actually care.
       | 
       | Let's all comment about how bad OTHER people are for letting us
       | be so shitty to show how moral we are in theory while continuing
       | inexcusable and intentional behaviour in practice.
        
       | mschuster91 wrote:
       | Surprise, surprise. And yet, Big Oil continued to launch
       | campaigns designed to deflect responsibility from companies and
       | governments away to individual consumers, like BP's "carbon
       | footprint" [1].
       | 
       | When will those responsible be held accountable for helping to
       | advance the destruction of climate and the immense loss of life
       | and property that climate change has brought?
       | 
       | How can we explain to our children and grandchildren why we did
       | nothing to hold them accountable?
       | 
       | [1] https://mashable.com/feature/carbon-footprint-pr-campaign-
       | sh...
        
         | dsfyu404ed wrote:
         | >When will those responsible be held accountable
         | 
         | You have sown the revolving door and now you reap its harvest.
         | 
         | Nobody will be held to account so long as the institutions that
         | would be doing the holding have a massive overlap in relevant
         | skills, subject matter and therefore, personnel (especially at
         | the management levels where these sorts of decisions get made).
        
           | mschuster91 wrote:
           | "You"? I was born in 1991, my generation certainly didn't
           | invent that crap, that was all during the reign of the
           | Boomers - who, to add insult to injury, keep occupying
           | positions of power instead of resigning and retiring to let
           | those rise who will actually have to live on this wreck of a
           | planet the next fifty to seventy years (assuming no major war
           | gets us all killed).
        
             | layer8 wrote:
             | I'm pretty sure a similar subset within the younger
             | generations will end up doing the same.
        
             | dragonwriter wrote:
             | > I was born in 1991, my generation certainly didn't invent
             | that crap, that was all during the reign of the Boomers
             | 
             | The described problem is _much_ older than the Boomers
             | period of political dominance. For some reason, Millenials
             | seem to think that "Boomers" are "everyone who existed
             | before the Millenials".
        
         | TinyRick wrote:
         | > When will those responsible be held accountable for helping
         | to advance the destruction of climate and the immense loss of
         | life and property that climate change has brought?
         | 
         | When it is no longer profitable to destroy the climate.
        
         | nickersonm wrote:
         | Yet these companies aren't the ones actually burning the oil,
         | are they? They merely sell the product which others then burn.
         | How can you hold only them responsible but excuse the parties
         | further downstream?
        
           | acdha wrote:
           | Because those aren't unrelated: it'd be one thing if they
           | just sold oil, but they're behind campaigns deceiving the
           | public about the true cost of using it and encouraging
           | additional consumption. People today are buying new trucks
           | and SUVs which get worse mileage than the 1980s did in part
           | because there's been this well-funded anti-science propaganda
           | campaign and many efforts to hide the true costs.
           | 
           | Put more succinctly, they deserve blame because they chose
           | lies when confronted with an inconvenient truth.
        
             | nickersonm wrote:
             | If oil companies have been campaigning specifically to
             | deceive customers about the potential harms those customers
             | may cause, then that should be what they are "held
             | responsible" for. Trying to make them responsible for harms
             | others caused using their products is rather orthogonal to
             | that, and doesn't bolster arguments criticizing them.
             | 
             | Tangentially, while some vehicles presumably have worse
             | mileage than a comparably-sized vehicle from the 1980s,
             | fuel efficiency has significantly increased since 2005
             | (after a small decrease from 1985-2005) while supporting
             | continuously increasing power and weight [0]:
             | 
             |  _In the two decades prior to 2004, technology innovation
             | and market trends generally resulted in increased vehicle
             | power and weight (due to increasing vehicle size and
             | content) while average new vehicle fuel economy steadily
             | decreased and CO2 emissions correspondingly increased.
             | Since model year 2004, the combination of technology
             | innovation and market trends have resulted in average new
             | vehicle fuel economy increasing 32%, horsepower increasing
             | 20%, and weight increasing 4%._
             | 
             | [0] https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-
             | automotive-...
        
               | acdha wrote:
               | > Tangentially, while some vehicles presumably have worse
               | mileage than a comparably-sized vehicle from the 1980s,
               | 
               | There's a challenge here: people have been encouraged to
               | buy larger vehicles. A small car will have better mileage
               | now but the kind of vehicle the average person is
               | commuting to work in now is much larger than it was three
               | decades ago. I would argue that this is in part due to
               | the successful campaign which fossil fuel companies
               | funded to reverse conservation wins of the late 70s &
               | early 80s. It wasn't just them but they had a significant
               | role in shaping the political and social discourse (e.g.
               | promoting gas guzzling as a macho thing).
        
               | nickersonm wrote:
               | Thanks for your civil engagement on what is often a
               | contentious topic.
               | 
               | While not a perfect representation of purchases, I
               | believe the EPA chart (Fig. ES-3) I referred to shows the
               | average of all for-sale models for a given year, so this
               | should capture the increasing preference for larger
               | vehicles. Indeed, the horsepower and curb weight are
               | shown as significant increases, _even while fuel
               | efficiency is improving_ (>=2005). It looks to me like
               | the average fuel efficiency passed the 1985 peak
               | (presumably driven by the 1970s oil crises) around 2007.
               | 
               | Clearly two decades of _decreasing_ efficiency was not
               | ideal, but I posit it may be the 1985-2005 period which
               | you are mostly remembering. Going by the chart there was
               | a fast shift to smaller and  'weaker' cars for highly
               | increased efficiency 1970-1975, after which there was a
               | slow continuous increase of power and weight - first
               | occasioning a slow but relatively small decline in
               | efficiency (compared to the 1970-1975 increase), but then
               | changing to increasing efficiency as that became a more
               | important factor for consumers.
               | 
               | Relatedly, while I am certainly not the target audience
               | for the kind of advertisements that may encourage people
               | to purchase more oil-based products, I cannot recall
               | seeing any automotive advertising that wasn't clearly
               | produced by a specific vehicle manufacturer. It sounds
               | like you are suggesting 2nd and 3rd tier advertising by
               | fuel companies for reversing the 1970-1975 reduction in
               | consumption, but I'm not familiar with that space - I
               | would appreciate it if you could direct me to any
               | resources you have about that.
        
       | V__ wrote:
       | I don't want to wish someone the worst. But I wouldn't loose one
       | second of sleep if all those people involved in delaying climate
       | action got some karmic justice.
        
         | ars wrote:
         | The only kind of climate action possible in those days was
         | nuclear power.
         | 
         | If you go check who actually delayed nuclear deployment you
         | will discover it was environmentalists.
        
           | anakaine wrote:
           | So because alternative technology didn't exist there was no
           | case to have the discussion and invest more heavily in
           | alternative green tech research, shortening the time frame to
           | action and reducing dependence on fossil fuels earlier?
           | 
           | This isn't about what occurred then, it's about the time and
           | opportunity cost of inaction that was fostered by rubbishing
           | climate science and hiding the research.
        
             | ars wrote:
             | You can certainly have the discussion, but it would not
             | have helped. We are still having discussion _TODAY_ and it
             | 's doing nothing of any consequence.
             | 
             | The only thing that matters for actual deployment is how
             | much the energy source costs. Nuclear power costs were
             | dramatically increased due to unnecessary fear.
             | 
             | For example solar power needs inverters - but those didn't
             | work well back then. It just so happens to right now
             | technology has finally reached the point that alternate
             | power actually is cheap enough to deploy.
             | 
             | So we are deploying it.
             | 
             | All the "climate talk" is doing nothing, what actually
             | matters is the money.
        
           | AstralStorm wrote:
           | Nah, we had wind power available since at least 50s, and
           | hydropower could be used too. Hoover dam is pretty old...
        
             | ars wrote:
             | All hydropower that can be used is already used, and
             | without neodymium magnets (which were commercialized in
             | 1982) wind power doesn't work well.
        
           | _visgean wrote:
           | There was plenty of action possible; building more railways,
           | different city design less dependent on car travel and maybe
           | publishing their own research instead of burying it for 40
           | years...
        
             | ars wrote:
             | Cars are around 10% of total energy usage, this would have
             | only minimal impact.
             | 
             | I agree about the research, but that's unrelated to the
             | point I was making.
        
         | kodyo wrote:
         | This is a common feeling among collectivists.
        
       | pstuart wrote:
       | Not at all shocking but still absolutely disgusting.
        
       | thatguy0900 wrote:
       | In any just world the company would be dissolved and all of its
       | resources taken and put towards fixing the problems it
       | intentionally created, and the people that knew about this be
       | held personally liable.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _the company would be dissolved and all of its resources
         | taken and put towards fixing the problems it intentionally
         | created, and the people that knew about this be held personally
         | liable_
         | 
         | I get the second part. But what's the utility of the first over
         | a fine? Are you suggesting nationalizing Exxon? Or liquidating
         | it?
        
           | frgtpsswrdlame wrote:
           | Without defending their wording, I think the absolute best
           | case for nationalizing a firm is one where the industry is
           | based off of natural resources, vital to the public in the
           | short term, and detrimental to the public in the long term.
        
           | ARandomerDude wrote:
           | Without oil things would be pretty bad around here, to say
           | the least.
        
           | acdha wrote:
           | Maybe not dissolved but fines aren't enough: if they're not
           | big enough or likely enough, companies may take their chances
           | and if they don't apply personally to the C-level some
           | fraction of people will try to see if they can get rich and
           | leave before the fine arrives.
           | 
           | Perhaps that's something along the lines of turning them into
           | highly-regulated public utilities. The big thing I'd focus on
           | is basically real auditing & accountability: serious
           | environmental assessments with full public disclosure, a
           | blanket ban on political involvement so you avoid the case we
           | have currently where someone [not inaccurately] thinks it's
           | cheaper to give lobbyists $10M to avoid regulation which will
           | cost them $100M, and criminal liability for anyone who
           | knowingly tries to hide information or mislead the public.
        
           | lordnacho wrote:
           | I think actually liquidating isn't so bad. Now and again
           | nature strikes down a giant and a lot of other creatures
           | benefit from it.
           | 
           | It's actually a bit odd that when we invented corporations we
           | didn't have some sort of catastrophe mechanism in there just
           | to shake hands up now and again.
           | 
           | I think society would find ways to become more resilient if
           | we lived with possible corporate sudden death.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _liquidating isn 't so bad_
             | 
             | You're guaranteeing either consolidation in an already
             | oligopolistic sector, or a recession from the output drop
             | caused by an inexperienced operator learning to scale to a
             | major.
             | 
             | > _we didn 't have some sort of catastrophe mechanism_
             | 
             | We do. They're fines and license revocations. Companies
             | that can't afford their fines go bankrupt. Government gets
             | cash; the stakeholders' clean up the mess. "Corporate death
             | penalty" and related talking points are almost all about
             | dismissing talk about bigger fines.
        
               | lordnacho wrote:
               | You're also guaranteeing that people will be able to try
               | new things where the giant once stood.
               | 
               | The real challenge is how to regulate the death rate.
        
             | lazyasciiart wrote:
             | The corporate death penalty. It's reasonable that nobody
             | came up with it at the invention of the corporation, but
             | America should absolutely have implemented one along with
             | Citizens United.
        
             | jokethrowaway wrote:
             | We do, but corporations which are rich enough just bribe
             | the government and gets bailouts or special treatments.
             | 
             | If it was the people vs Exxon with private judges in
             | private courts (judges which compete with one another on
             | who's the best, not government officials with a comfy chair
             | and a guaranteed lifetime of administering "justice"), it
             | would be way harder to corrupt.
             | 
             | That's why we need to decentralise our government power.
        
           | sjsdaiuasgdia wrote:
           | "all of its resources taken" would seem to require
           | liquidation or putting those resources under a different
           | management structure, possibly government directly or
           | government appointed.
           | 
           | What would Exxon be able to do once all of its resources have
           | been repurposed? The company would be effectively dissolved
           | even if not explicitly dissolved.
        
       | erulabs wrote:
       | I've chatted with a few folks who have spent their entire lives
       | working in climate science while being employed by the oil
       | industry. They're some of the most moderate, intelligent,
       | considered people I've ever talked to. And most people hear "a
       | climate scientist who works for an oil company" and assumes
       | they're the worst sort - a profiteer or a liar or a complicit
       | drone. They're not leadership - they don't get to decide what is
       | to be done with their conclusions - but they're not all evil.
       | 
       | Now... the leadership folks who commissioned these predictions
       | and then ignored them... That's another matter!
        
         | fwungy wrote:
         | International oil companies are a small piece of the production
         | pie. Even if they all shut down it's the state oil companies
         | that do the bulk of the production.
        
           | shawnb576 wrote:
           | OK well then, we'd better not do anything about it! <s/>
           | 
           | I don't think this is strictly true. Oil production is not
           | fully fungible due to all kinds of issues including sanctions
           | and production capacity.
           | 
           | But this is also a strawman - this isn't saying "we should
           | shut them all down" or even begging that question.
           | 
           | At a minimum it's saying "there were people and companies who
           | intentionally chose to mislead the public on a potentially
           | existential issue - perhaps there should be some reckoning
           | for that?"
        
             | fwungy wrote:
             | https://www.aei.org/economics/environmental-energy-
             | economics...
             | 
             | I never said don't do anything.
             | 
             | What I believe is that we need to balance carbon
             | elimination w/ carbon mitigation and not put all our eggs
             | in the elimination basket.
             | 
             | We've got one chance to do this right.
        
       | whatever1 wrote:
       | I don't understand what was the expectation.
       | 
       | For Big Oil to start campaigning against their own product?
       | 
       | We have legislative bodies that we literally elect and pay to do
       | this job.
       | 
       | Let's stop the hypocrisy and look ourselves in the mirror.
        
         | avgcorrection wrote:
         | Yes. Let's look ourselves in the mirror and ask ourselves why
         | such corporate behavior is even legal in the first place.
         | 
         | For-profit corporations--and really any kind of for-profit
         | organization--should be made illegal. Through our legislative
         | bodies.
         | 
         | It's that or extinction.
        
         | stjohnswarts wrote:
         | It kind of smells of hypocrisy, it's comparable to when some
         | italian authorities wanted to imprison scientists for not
         | predicting earthquakes. Lots of scientists knew about it and
         | didn't say anything, also earthquakes happen in earthquake
         | zones.
        
         | lasfter wrote:
         | Just because it's in your best interest to fuck over the world
         | doesn't mean it's morally justifiable. The fact is that the
         | people profiting from Big Oil would have still been plenty rich
         | enough if they _did_ campaign against their own product, so
         | their choice to withhold this information can only be
         | attributed to plain greed.
         | 
         | We don't expect murderers to turn themselves in, we pay police
         | forces to find them. But it's not hypocritical to call
         | murderers evil, and it's not unreasonable to expect that people
         | _should not murder_.
        
           | adam_arthur wrote:
           | Oil and coal have lifted more out of poverty than possibly
           | any other invention/discovery in the modern era.
           | 
           | The key is not to villainize fossil fuels, but to recognize
           | their benefits and costs and decide collectively via policy
           | what tradeoffs we're willing to make.
           | 
           | Think about how privileged you are in life that you can even
           | consider not depending on fossil fuels. Hysterical takes like
           | yours come across completely naive and uninformed.
        
             | lasfter wrote:
             | I'm not vilifying fossil fuels. I'm vilifying fossil fuel
             | companies.
             | 
             | > recognize their benefits and costs and decide
             | collectively via policy what tradeoffs we're willing to
             | make
             | 
             | How can we do that when fossil fuel companies lie about the
             | benefits and costs? How can we do that when they bribe
             | politicians for favorable legislation? You are the naive
             | one, and not particularly well-informed given you did not
             | even read the article.
        
               | adam_arthur wrote:
               | Why would you ask fossil fuel companies about the
               | cost/benefit to begin with? They are a biased party
               | 
               | It may feel cathartic to lash out at perceived "evil"
               | entities but you accomplish nothing that way. Some prefer
               | perception of justice to actual results though, so to
               | each their own.
               | 
               | I think you'd find a world without fossil fuels has quite
               | a bit more misery than the one we have today. Green
               | transition needs to be well thought out and planned for,
               | not taken lightly
        
               | lasfter wrote:
               | > Why would you ask fossil fuel companies about the
               | cost/benefit to begin with?
               | 
               | Indeed, tell that to the politicians who made their
               | energy policy decisions based on conversations with oil
               | lobbies.
               | 
               | I feel no catharsis from commenting, and I don't pretend
               | that bad press is 'justice'. Justice would be prison time
               | for the people in charge that suppressed this
               | information. I have no way of working toward this vision
               | of society other than bitching to politicians and peers
               | about every individual company's moral fuck ups.
               | 
               | What actual results are you working towards? What is your
               | version of justice in this case?
        
           | satvikpendem wrote:
           | > _Just because it 's in your best interest to fuck over the
           | world doesn't mean it's morally justifiable._
           | 
           | When people talk about corporations and morality, I am
           | reminded about the quip about Larry Ellison:
           | 
           | > _You need to think of Larry Ellison the way you think of a
           | lawnmower. You don 't anthropomorphize your lawnmower, the
           | lawnmower just mows the lawn, you stick your hand in there
           | and it'll chop it off, the end. You don't think 'oh, the
           | lawnmower hates me' -- lawnmower doesn't give a shit about
           | you, lawnmower can't hate you. Don't anthropomorphize the
           | lawnmower._
           | 
           | Think of a corporation like a function called `makeMoney`,
           | which takes inputs like costs, advantages, benefits, and so
           | on. Morality is not an input parameter at all, so why do
           | people expect that it would be taken into account? If one
           | wants morality to be taken into account, it should be
           | explicitly done so, via some sort of input parameter, like
           | legislation. Otherwise, don't expect anything to change.
        
             | lasfter wrote:
             | I agree, but plenty of people seem to think this excuses
             | immoral behavior by corporations. You can even see a couple
             | in this thread. We can't really get effective legislation
             | passed until we can agree that it is indeed bad for a
             | corporation to lie, cause harm, etc, and that misbehaving
             | corporations (and more importantly, the people who lead
             | them) should be punished.
        
             | AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote:
             | > Morality is not an input parameter at all, so why do
             | people expect that it would be taken into account?
             | 
             | Do people expect it or do they merely want to change things
             | such that it _is_ an input parameter?
             | 
             | Just because sociopaths are allowed to run rampant and fuck
             | up everything for the rest of us doesn't mean we have to
             | like it and it certainly doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing
             | something about it.
        
             | jokethrowaway wrote:
             | Reputation plays a role.
             | 
             | Legislation can be bought.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | Some of the people profiting from oil usage are you and me.
           | We get (relatively) cheap transportation, cheap heating,
           | cheap power, a huge variety of foods without regard to
           | season, cheap vacations, etc, etc.
           | 
           | IMO, it's less "all those other bad people are enjoying
           | running fossil fuel companies" than it is "all of us people
           | are enjoying the benefits of fossil fuel burning".
           | 
           | (I daily an EV; I don't pretend that makes me any better than
           | the average American, which is to say I am substantially
           | worse than the average Earthling.)
        
             | lasfter wrote:
             | Are you saying Exxon is justified because people get to use
             | oil?
             | 
             | It's not about burning fossil fuels, it's about
             | misinforming the public about the long-term dangers of your
             | product. If I sell you a delicious candy while secretly
             | knowing it will give you cancer in 10 years, I don't get to
             | say "well you enjoyed the candy didn't you?" once I'm
             | caught out.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | I'm saying when we point a finger at the oil companies
               | who sell us the oil that we demand and consume, we should
               | recognize that there are three fingers pointing back at
               | us.
               | 
               | Are they blameless? Nope. Are they solely (or even
               | primarily) to blame? Also nope.
        
               | lasfter wrote:
               | I don't know what argument you are trying to respond to.
               | I'm saying it is an evil act to supply a product while
               | withholding the knowledge that it will cause massive
               | long-term harm to the entire world.
               | 
               | How are consumers complicit? By wanting nice things?
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Yes: consumers are complicit by demanding the oil. Don't
               | want Exxon, Shell, BP, et al to dig up the oil? Don't do
               | things that consume oil and they'll stop doing it for
               | you.
               | 
               | But that's inconvenient, so consumers keep demanding oil
               | and then act shocked and tut-tut when oil companies
               | provide it.
        
               | lasfter wrote:
               | What choice is there for consumers but to demand oil? If
               | cities create suburban sprawl and inadequate public
               | transportation, it's the consumer's fault for using a
               | car? If every industry whose products I require to
               | participate in society uses oil, how can I choose
               | otherwise?
               | 
               | I really don't understand your point and your smug
               | judgements on consumers. Do you consume no oil products?
               | Or are you just saying that you knew all along oil is bad
               | so you're better than the 'naive masses'?
               | 
               | I'm not shocked that oil companies provide oil, I'm
               | shocked that many people don't want to take any action
               | even when it comes out that the oil companies baldly lied
               | about their role in climate change.
               | 
               | I'm also baffled that some people want to shift the blame
               | away from the oil companies.
        
         | suprjami wrote:
         | Knowingly cause millions or billions of deaths and destroy the
         | planet, or not make as much money short-term and pivot the
         | industry to something else.
         | 
         | Yeah, tough choice.
        
           | leeroyjenkins11 wrote:
           | How many billions of lives have been saved by fossil fuels
           | and technology though? From starvation, from extreme weather
           | events, from exposure to heat and cold?
           | 
           | Would we be here if not for modernization and fossil fuels?
           | If we stopped in the 60s, would other nations have done the
           | same? Or would they have advanced to dominance?
        
             | suprjami wrote:
             | Burn down your house. Yeah, your house is gone, but look
             | how warm you are today!
             | 
             | Fossil fuels are not the only form of energy. We could have
             | put decades of technological effort into wind and solar and
             | battery and waves and all the other options. We'd be so
             | much further forward than we are today. Instead the
             | industry just lobbied and lied.
        
               | mardifoufs wrote:
               | At the time when this research happened, so in the 1970 -
               | 80s? Yes, they were the only viable form of energy for
               | almost everything. Suggesting that we should've ditched
               | fossil fuels in the 70s and 80s is a bit asinine and
               | would've resulted in immense loss of lives, especially in
               | less developed areas of the world. There weren't really
               | any other alternatives. Electrification is only possible
               | due to recent advancement in (battery, PV, electronics)
               | technology. Your analogy does not make sense because
               | abandoning fossil fuels back then was closer to the
               | "house burning" move.
               | 
               | (Yes, nuclear existed. But only in some countries, and it
               | could only cover some parts of energy usage).
        
               | MandieD wrote:
               | Fun little anecdote:
               | 
               | Jimmy Carter had solar panels put on the roof of the
               | White House. Ronald Reagan had them removed.
               | 
               | Hypothetical that makes me want to cry for all the wasted
               | time and cumulative life years:
               | 
               | What if Reagan had kept them instead, even promoting a
               | nascent American PV industry in the 80s?
        
               | suprjami wrote:
               | Please quote the sentence where I allegedly said to drop
               | fossil fuels in the 70s with no viable replacement,
               | plunging the world into a dark age. I didn't say that.
               | 
               | Yes, fossil fuels do seem to be an unavoidable evil on
               | the path to technological advancement.
               | 
               | However, the point is: There were no viable alternatives
               | for the last 50 years because the fossil fuel industry
               | did everything in their power to cover up the impending
               | disaster and instead focused all efforts on lobbying to
               | maintain their profits.
               | 
               | Imagine if Exxon had made their findings public in 1973
               | and had instead lobbied for renewables and moving away
               | from fossil fuels. We'd be 50 years ahead of our current
               | energy technology. We'd have a lot more options for
               | generation and storage with a lot more density.
               | 
               | The "recent advancements" are only recent because we've
               | pissed the last 50 years against the wall so some asshole
               | billionaires could afford more yachts.
               | 
               | "What if someone else just kept polluting" isn't an
               | argument. Fighting climate change is becoming a political
               | necessity. The world has almost internationally
               | eradicated many undesirable things like mass slavery and
               | chemical weapons. These are also political necessities to
               | run a successful country.
               | 
               | In another 100 years, the idea of a country mass-burning
               | fossil fuels will be akin to adding a Swastika to their
               | national flag while adopting foreign policy of black
               | slavery. Sure, they can try it, but it would be very
               | politically and financially unpopular, and if they get
               | too forceful then some superpower will interfere and stop
               | them.
               | 
               | We could be 50 years closer to that goal. But we aren't.
               | And that's due to the fossil fuel industry's intentional
               | deception of the entire world.
        
         | jrgoff wrote:
         | They could have pivoted to more climate-friendly energy
         | production
        
         | smolder wrote:
         | > For Big Oil to start campaigning against their own product?
         | 
         | I know people who prioritize ethics & morality tend not to get
         | promoted too high, but that doesn't mean we should blanket
         | forgive decision makers at oil companies for sweeping such a
         | huge problem under the rug for as long as possible. The
         | positive example of what to do instead would be to communicate
         | the issue as soon as possible, not cover it up, and then pivot
         | into the work of moving away from fossil fuel dependence.
        
         | haxiomic wrote:
         | > For Big Oil to start campaigning against their own product?
         | 
         | Yes!
         | 
         | Surely we all have a responsibility to our own _species_. If
         | you're making something that you discover harms the species
         | then you should change course. This company would have massive
         | head start and could own the inevitable future of green energy
         | if they took action then
         | 
         | Laws are like the immune system for humanity, this is exactly
         | the scenario it makes sense for laws to prevent
        
         | scythe wrote:
         | >We have legislative bodies that we literally elect and pay to
         | do this job.
         | 
         | >Let's stop the hypocrisy and look ourselves in the mirror.
         | 
         | [Modern electoral] Democracy doesn't really work that way.
         | About 2/3 of people vote in the general election. Around 1/5
         | vote in the primaries. Maybe 1% actually sign petitions to put
         | candidates in the primaries.
         | 
         | "We the people" only _directly_ influence the last step of the
         | process, in so doing contributing about one bit of information
         | per candidate in a two-party system. Public perception and
         | conversation is a key mediator between the public and
         | everything else about the candidates who ultimately run for
         | office. This kind of  "outrage" is not contrary to the
         | democratic process; it is _an essential part_ of the process.
        
         | TinyRick wrote:
         | Problem is that Big Oil pays those politicians more.
        
           | Barrin92 wrote:
           | that's not even remotely the issue. Money may buy you access
           | but it doesn't magically buy you votes. People could easily
           | kick every oil lobbyist out.
           | 
           | The genuine reason is that citizens are not willing to
           | internalize the costs of their pollution and change their
           | habits. Cheap gas, big cars, big houses, cheap Big Macs,
           | cheap plane tickets is what the people vote for. Big Oil just
           | supplies the juice.
        
             | avgcorrection wrote:
             | That sounds like what Nicolas Cage said in _Lord of War_.
        
             | TinyRick wrote:
             | > People could easily kick every oil lobbyist out.
             | 
             | Please explain.
        
           | whatever1 wrote:
           | And all of the country elected to keep them in power
        
             | danuker wrote:
             | Here're the most-greased top 20.
             | 
             | https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/recips.php?ind=E01&c
             | y...
        
             | TinyRick wrote:
             | The voters in the 70s and 80s did, sure. But as this
             | article explains, those voters were withheld crucial
             | information that could have informed their voting choices.
             | 
             | 2010 was the first election I was eligible to vote in, and
             | in the past decade+ I (and many others) have not voted for
             | pro-oil/coal/fracking/etc candidates. Yet we're the ones
             | that are (and will continue to) live with the consequences
             | of Big Oil's actions from decades ago.
        
               | stjohnswarts wrote:
               | they are still voting for them, for example the House of
               | Representatives is now majority Republican who almost all
               | don't believe in global warming or believe in it and
               | believe "eh, whatever, I got mine". Are they not as
               | guilty as Exxon? Are the people voting for them any less
               | responsible than Exxon. If you participate in the modern
               | economy, are you not also complicit?
        
         | voisin wrote:
         | > I don't understand what was the expectation. > For Big Oil to
         | start campaigning against their own product?
         | 
         | How about since they saw it coming to start investing in the
         | transition to be ahead of the curve?
         | 
         | What baffles me is that these people knew and presumably had
         | children or grandchildren, presumably breathed the same air and
         | had the same houses in areas prone to wildfires, etc. and yet
         | they didn't take actions that would have been in their own
         | interests other than financial.
        
         | necrotic_comp wrote:
         | The expectation is that they would take the long view and start
         | investing in alternatives that pay more instead of burning the
         | planet to the ground.
        
         | LatteLazy wrote:
         | Thank you. I thought I was the only one disgusted by this.
        
         | UncleOxidant wrote:
         | There was a time in the late 70s early 80s when oil companies
         | sought to diversify into solar and other areas. Exxon bought
         | Zilog to diversify into semiconductors... it didn't last long.
         | When Reagan came to power Carter's emphasis on moving towards
         | alternative energy and away from oil came to an end. The oil
         | companies were happy to play along and go back to being oil
         | companies instead of energy companies that started out in oil.
        
       | peatmoss wrote:
       | In (public) high school, I had a physics teacher who showed his
       | conservative politics pretty prominently. He was a great
       | instructor, but had conspicuously placed religious books around
       | the class room. "Teaching your students about God" was one title
       | that I remember.
       | 
       | Another feature of this class was being shown The Greening of
       | Planet Earth:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Greening_of_Planet_Earth
        
       | shmerl wrote:
       | They should pay for the damage they caused.
        
         | readthenotes1 wrote:
         | start by never using plastic.
        
       | manv1 wrote:
       | I really hate it how reporters are using "breathtaking" a
       | superlative. It's like they're whipping out the thesaurus and
       | finding the unused synonym.
       | 
       | I know they're liberal arts majors and everything, but still.
       | Have you ever lost your breath looking at data? If anything you
       | yell, not lose your breath.
        
         | MonkeyMalarky wrote:
         | Sure after looking at data, I've lost my breath and felt my
         | heart clench inside my chest like death itself reached in and
         | grabbed hold. Mind you it wasn't climate data and more like
         | "I've trashed the DB in prod" sort of thing.
        
         | hansonkd wrote:
         | If you look past your snide remarks, breathtaking was a quote
         | from Geoffrey Supran who is a Research Fellow in the History of
         | Science at Harvard and has a PhD in Materials Science &
         | Engineering.
         | 
         | So i think that says more about your biases than anything about
         | the reporters who have liberal arts degrees.
        
         | itsibitzi wrote:
         | It's literally a quote in the article hence the quotation
         | marks.
        
         | turnsout wrote:
         | Just a reminder that journalists typically don't write their
         | own headlines. You can blame copy editors for the
         | "breathtaking" liberties they often take with the source
         | material.
        
         | stjohnswarts wrote:
         | The are also constantly jarred and shook.
        
         | shakow wrote:
         | Before going for the snark, you could have noticed that
         | ``breathtakingly'' is in quotes, because it is part of a
         | citation of the expert mentioned in the article.
         | 
         | The only choice here has been to put it in the title.
        
         | tobr wrote:
         | Well, have _you_ ever tried to whip with a book as thick as a
         | typical thesaurus?
        
         | happytoexplain wrote:
         | I agree it's overused, but it might be early to jump on the
         | reporter/journalist hate train on this particular issue, since
         | it's extremely common for their critics to describe their
         | reporting as "breathless", which is a nearly identical
         | exaggeration.
        
           | ktyckgch wrote:
           | In this case the word is a direct quote from Geoffrey Supran.
           | While the headline writer chose to emphasise it, the writer
           | definitely didn't find it in a thesaurus.
        
       | aaron695 wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | fwungy wrote:
       | State oil companies dwarf the international producers like Exxon
       | by a factor of 10-20, depending on how you count.
       | 
       | All the wonderful carbon free schemes ignore the fact that these
       | state owned oil companies hold trillions in oil wealth in
       | reserves. How do you get these states (e.g. Putin/Russia) to walk
       | away from that money?
       | 
       | This is why we need to think about mitigation strategies a lot
       | harder.
        
       | agentultra wrote:
       | The address Carl Sagan made in 1985 is well worth watching for
       | those who remember those times and especially for those who
       | weren't alive back then [0]
       | 
       | People knew about this before you were born and decided their
       | best interests were more important and they acted in wilful
       | disregard for your life and the lives of everyone on this planet.
       | They weren't ignorant. No facts were hidden from them that they
       | could be forgiven for being misinformed. They knew with certainty
       | what the science was revealing and spent money to discredit the
       | science, cut funding to their own researchers, bought
       | politicians, funded PR campaigns, and continued building their
       | fossil fuel empires.
       | 
       | Everything Carl Sagan said in that address has come to pass. It's
       | wild to watch.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp-WiNXH6hI
        
         | melling wrote:
         | And Sagan knew coal usage would be a big problem, and yet it's
         | still a huge problem almost 40 years later.
         | 
         | People wouldn't know if coal power plants disappeared tomorrow,
         | replaced by any other form of electricity
        
           | klyrs wrote:
           | Except for the ~40k employees of the coal industry[1], who
           | are used as a scapegoat by the politicians (ahem, Manchin)
           | who take the most ardent stands against modernization of our
           | electrical infrastructure. And I'd bet that most of those
           | employees' skills would transfer pretty directly to any other
           | sort of mining. But it's just not that many people. We could
           | cut them each a $1M check for the trouble, which is about 10
           | years worth of coal subsidies[2].
           | 
           | [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/215790/coal-
           | miningemploy...
           | 
           | [2] https://en.as.com/en/2022/03/29/latest_news/1648510535_73
           | 079...
        
             | LarryMullins wrote:
             | It's easy to claim coal miners could transition to another
             | mining industry, but what mining industry in those regions
             | could absorb that many miners? None I think. It's not as
             | though a secession of coal mining would create a boom in
             | other mining industries.
             | 
             | > _We could cut them each a $1M check for the trouble,
             | which is about 10 years worth of coal subsidies[2]._
             | 
             | Maybe if they were offered that deal for real, they'd take
             | it. But without such a deal, can you really blame those
             | workers for not wanting their careers erased in America of
             | all places? Their families would become destitute and there
             | would be little sympathy for them. Instead of a buyout,
             | they'd receive little but _' learn to code'_ jeers. They'd
             | be told they're expected to move away from the communities
             | they've live in for generations, leave their families
             | behind and scatter with the winds. I know this doesn't seem
             | like a big deal to a forum full of rootless cosmopolitan
             | tech workers who often live thousands of miles away from
             | where they came from, myself included, but people don't
             | often wish this sort of radical uncertainty and instability
             | on themselves and their own families. So of course they
             | elect politicians who advocate for their interests. If you
             | think this is about politicians duping coal workers, you've
             | got it backwards. The tail doesn't wag the dog.
        
               | klyrs wrote:
               | I don't think this is about politicians duping coal
               | workers, no. And that $1M bonus idea is just a comparison
               | of scale. It's a comparatively tiny industry, which is
               | extremely harmful to the environment and its workers.
               | There are certainly coal-mining towns that exist solely
               | because of what's in the ground, and of course you can't
               | just dig up something else there.
               | 
               | I'm not a "rootless cosmopolitan tech worker," I'm one of
               | the only cousins in my family who isn't blue-collar or in
               | deep poverty. I don't expect this to be painless, but we
               | need to get off of coal for the good of the species.
               | 
               | I don't think the coal workers are being duped. I know
               | that they're in a really tough spot. I think that the
               | coal (and more generally fossil-fuel) executives are
               | lobbying politicians hard, with complete disregard for
               | the long-term impact that we've known very clearly for
               | _decades_ now. Follow the money: politicians and
               | executives are raking it in, and the small population of
               | front-line workers' lives depend on it. Blame the
               | politicians, blame the executives, who make their
               | decisions for personal benefit at great cost to humanity.
               | 
               | Quitting tobacco, as a person, is hard in part because of
               | withdrawal symptoms. The analog for quitting coal, as a
               | nation, is that an industry needs to die. We need good
               | policies to take care of the people whose jobs are
               | impacted, but we techies are in large part responsible
               | for automating away entire industries -- way more than
               | 40k jobs -- and who's there to take care of _those_
               | workers?
        
         | pschuegr wrote:
         | First part is mostly explanation of greenhouse effect:
         | predictions are here: https://youtu.be/Wp-WiNXH6hI?t=698
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2023-01-12 23:02 UTC)