[HN Gopher] Liquid Democracy. Two Experiments on Delegation in V...
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       Liquid Democracy. Two Experiments on Delegation in Voting
        
       Author : valkrieco
       Score  : 39 points
       Date   : 2023-01-12 18:50 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nber.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nber.org)
        
       | anigbrowl wrote:
       | _There is a clear, immediate problem: are experts correctly
       | identified?_ But there is also a second, more subtle, but also
       | more fundamental question: even if the experts are correctly
       | identified, delegation deprives the electorate of the richness of
       | noisy but abundant information distributed among all voters.
       | _Unless the extent of delegation is modulated correctly,
       | Condorcet has taught us that a smaller number of independent
       | voters, even if more accurate, may well lead to worse decision-
       | making. This very basic trade-off is the necessary point of
       | departure of Liquid Democracy and is the focus of this paper._
       | 
       | Seems highly tendentious to me. How is abundance synonymous with
       | richness when processing costs are ignored? The whole point of
       | delegation is that it's not efficient or enjoyable for everyone
       | to get up to speed on everything. Representative democracy is ass
       | because representatives' own intellectual capacity is limited and
       | the incentives for self-dealing vastly outweigh those for
       | probity. Liquid democracy proposes to delegate on a per-issue
       | basis, but the cost of expert identification is necessarily a
       | function of the cost of expertise acquisition. Further, the
       | payoffs for right or wrong decisions isn't always apparent in
       | size or time. These latter considerations don't seem to have been
       | factored in, causing the paper to read as a dismissal of a
       | proposed heuristic by comparison to an impractical ideal.
        
       | vore wrote:
       | What prevents someone from just buying someone's delegation in
       | liquid democracy? If you were destitute, someone buying your vote
       | might sound like a pretty good deal...
        
       | POiNTx wrote:
       | I'm a fan of liquid democarcy on a conceptual level so this
       | result is surprising to me. Started a side project to test it out
       | in a game environment, basically an online Nomic[1] although I
       | have abandoned it for now. Reading through some of the paper
       | makes me realize I didn't think it through as deep as the authors
       | and I'm probably not smart enough.
       | 
       | I understand they used a perceptual test to figure out who the
       | experts are.
       | 
       | And 'over delegation' results in losing benefits of delegates who
       | have information that might be useful?
       | 
       | This is not clear to me: "...it (over delegation) reduces the
       | variety of independent information sources"
       | 
       | In a perceptual task where one is found to be better than the
       | other participants, why wouldn't it be the case that voting for
       | the best participent (the expert) gives you the best result? I
       | think I'm missing something
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nomic
        
       | gardenfelder wrote:
       | https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30794/w307...
        
       | mistermann wrote:
       | > The two designs are very different, but the experiments reach
       | the same result: in both, delegation rates are unexpectedly high
       | and higher than abstention rates, and LD underperforms relative
       | to both universal voting and abstention.
       | 
       | What might be the meaning of "underperforms" in this context?
        
         | yorwba wrote:
         | In the experiments, there are two options, exactly one of which
         | is designated correct, and voters are given the task of voting
         | for the correct option using imperfect information as to which
         | one that is.
         | 
         | "Underperforms" then means that the correct option is chosen
         | less often. (If you want a more precise mathematical statement,
         | the explanation of the model starts on page 8.)
         | 
         | Basically, the model subscribes to the "mistake theory" of
         | political disagreement (
         | https://old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/74vpwm/soci...
         | ) that there is a single outcome that's best for everyone and
         | disagreements only happen because sometimes people are mistaken
         | as to which outcome that is.
         | 
         | In a "conflict-theoretical" experiment where voters are trying
         | to maximize their benefit even at the expense of others, I
         | suspect people would do quite well at identifying a member of
         | their own tribe to delegate their vote to.
        
         | StefanKarpinski wrote:
         | Was confused by that as well. Sounds like Liquid Democracy
         | doesn't do well compared to the alternatives, which would
         | certainly be an interesting result, but doesn't fit with what
         | the rest of the abstract seems to be suggesting.
        
           | pc86 wrote:
           | What might be the meaning of "doesn't do well" in this
           | context?
        
             | anigbrowl wrote:
             | Less good at identifying a correct answer than just polling
             | people.
        
         | heisenzombie wrote:
         | ""
         | 
         | For example, consider one of the parametrizations we study: a
         | group of 15 voters of which 3 are experts; the experts'
         | information is correct with probability 70%, while the
         | precision of non-experts' signals can take any value between 50
         | and 70%, with equal probability. Then only non-experts with
         | signals of precision close to random should delegate: a non-
         | expert with information that she knows is only 55% likely to be
         | correct should not delegate to experts whom she knows to be
         | correct with probability 70%.
         | 
         | ""
         | 
         | This is not about politics, or subjective questions about
         | complicated situations. It imagines a world in which there is
         | one correct answer and the reason that different people vote
         | differently is due to a lack of information about that truth.
         | 
         | This is very much a simplified "game" they're playing with. In
         | this context, the result -- I think -- is more like an outcome
         | of the central limit theorem. Basically, if you get lots of
         | people each with a 55% chance of being correct to vote on a
         | binary choice, they're very likely to pick the correct choice
         | in aggregate. If you have one person who is 70% correct vote,
         | they're 30% likely to get it wrong. So you actually don't want
         | too many of the 55% people to delegate their decision to the
         | 70% person, which is a bit counter-intuitive.
         | 
         | This is sort of interesting, and I think says something useful
         | about the Liquid Democracy concept. However I think the
         | experiment is simplified to the point that it's a categorically
         | different thing than even moderately interesting political
         | questions, and so I don't think it's an argument against
         | applying liquid democracy to politics.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | Biggest threat to democracy is echo chambers and fake news. How
       | does this help with that?
        
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