[HN Gopher] If you like startups you should love anti-trust
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       If you like startups you should love anti-trust
        
       Author : connor11528
       Score  : 497 points
       Date   : 2023-01-08 03:46 UTC (19 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (alexwrites.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (alexwrites.substack.com)
        
       | hamilyon2 wrote:
       | The main and most important mono/oligopolies to break are in
       | finance, medical education and law. These are the primary
       | gatekeepers preventing value to reach consumer, these are rent-
       | seeking vampires.
       | 
       | Tech is interesting example, of course, but it's like a tempest
       | in the bowl right now. We should permit to innovate everywhere,
       | not just in web search space and e-commerce.
        
         | Semaphor wrote:
         | I think a big difference might be that in tech, you often have
         | a global monopoly, while finance, medical, and law are more
         | national ones.
        
         | lwhi wrote:
         | I'd argue that tech stands to eventually swallow the companies
         | in the domains you talk about.
         | 
         | The truly difficult thing about monopolies is that their power
         | and strength in the marketplace grows exponentially.
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | The main and most important monopolies are, in this order,
         | 
         | 1. Apple
         | 
         | 2. Google
         | 
         | 3. Amazon
         | 
         | > finance, medical education and law
         | 
         | Each of the above companies reaches deep into finance. Google
         | and Apple capture real world payments on their devices, take
         | 30% on top of any app software, limit or own the web, etc.
         | 
         | They're each trying to break into medical, with big medical
         | endeavors underway right now.
         | 
         | Forget textbooks. Look at the fight between Google and Apple
         | for the classroom.
         | 
         | These companies have their own film studios, for goodness sake.
         | How the hell did we let _that_ happen? Lord of the Rings is
         | _Amazon_ -- What?!
        
           | deadpannini wrote:
           | What is Amazon's Monopoly?
           | 
           | I don't mean this as a gotcha question: I really don't
           | understand what people are claiming when they say this.
           | 
           | All three of those companies are now large conglomerates with
           | a lot of power (perhaps too much), but calling them
           | "monopolies" is counter-productive (except Google search),
           | especially in the context of regulatory or legal framework,
           | where the facts have to fit a very precise pattern to take
           | action.
        
             | zozbot234 wrote:
             | They own a dominant platform for consumer shopping and use
             | it to promote their own products. Meanwhile established
             | competitors like Walmart cannot be featured on the same
             | platform without submitting to rules that Amazon itself
             | doesn't have to abide to. It's called a tie-in arrangement
             | in antitrust law, and it's not legal.
        
               | deadpannini wrote:
               | I'd agree that they are "dominant", and that legal
               | authorities should watch Amazon closely for specific
               | violations, but they only control 35-40% of the online
               | consumer retail market (by most estimates circa 2022).
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Really? No retailer has ever let a competitor advertise
               | on their platform and store brands have always been a
               | thing across retail.
               | 
               | Poor little Walmart is much larger than Amazon in terms
               | of revenue and profit.
        
               | zozbot234 wrote:
               | Physical retail stores are not a natural monopoly
               | platform like a shopping site is. There's nothing
               | stopping Amazon from building a physical store next door
               | to a Walmart and selling its products there.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | How is a shopping site a "natural monopoly" when there is
               | an existence proof that there are other large shopping
               | sites - like Walmart.com?
               | 
               | If you go on Facebook or Instagram you can find thousands
               | of small merchants who advertise there and ship directly
               | to consumers.
               | 
               | > There's nothing stopping Amazon from building a
               | physical store next door to a Walmart and selling its
               | products there.
               | 
               | And there is nothing stopping you from building a website
               | and doing targeted advertising that is reachable by
               | anyone. Wouldn't you say it's a lot easier creating a
               | website than building a physical store?
        
           | scarface74 wrote:
           | This is not true for Apple and I assume Google. It came out
           | in the Epic trial that 80% of App Store revenue comes from
           | pay to win games. If you look right now at many of the most
           | popular non game mobile apps, most don't monetize directly
           | through the App Store.
           | 
           | Anyone can set up their own online store and many do using
           | services like Shopify.
        
           | robertlagrant wrote:
           | We didn't let anything happen. 50 years ago Singer sewing
           | machines was making computers[0]! Why didn't people back then
           | ask who let them innovate and risk their money the way they
           | chose to.
           | 
           | I think they understood that you can't both have a process
           | that delivers the fastest progress in human history, _and_
           | dislike the vanishingly few participants who succeed at it
           | inordinately well.
           | 
           | [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singer_System_Ten
        
             | ClumsyPilot wrote:
             | > think they understood that you can't both have a process
             | that delivers the fastest progress in human history, and
             | dislike the vanishingly few participants who succeed at it
             | inordinately well.
             | 
             | Fastest progress in what? What you smoking mate?
             | 
             | 60 years after Wright Brothers we landed on the moon! We
             | went from a flying bit of cardboard to real space rockets.
             | 
             | Now another 60 years have passed, and we achieved fuck all.
             | 
             | It is amazind that free market advocates do not understand
             | their most important feature. - competition
        
             | izacus wrote:
             | Funny you use "vanishingly few" in your sentence. Why is
             | that do you think? Do you those amazing innovator megacorps
             | with walled gardens into which new companies can't reach
             | have nothing to do with it?
             | 
             | Why do modern Americans hate market competition so much?
        
               | robertlagrant wrote:
               | "Vanishingly few" applies not just to the narrow world of
               | American tech.
               | 
               | I'm not American, and I'm not just talking about tech.
               | 
               | I'm talking about the general process of progress and
               | effort.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | college_physics wrote:
         | Maybe we are all biased about the importance of tech but it is
         | a sector that can expand beyond its confines.
         | 
         | Actually its not even a sector anymore. "Big tech" is hardly
         | selling tech products or services anymore, its core profit is
         | from selling ad or product marketplaces
         | 
         | The finance example is illustrstive. Big tech would love to
         | expand into that space and "disrupt" that sector (double the
         | size of conglomerates) but so far at least it has been pushed
         | back by other equally entrenched oligopolies
        
       | aj7 wrote:
       | I wouldn't approach it in terms of "enforcing antitrust laws."
       | It's very hard to win those cases. What I would do is limit the
       | cash that public companies can retain. This has the effect of
       | distributing capital to new ventures and competitors naturally.
       | And it has two knock on effects that are also very positive. If
       | Sergei Brin et al want to develop self-driving cars, let them use
       | their own money, or raise new money, not use an advertising
       | company's stockholders' money vainly and cavalierly. Second, with
       | less cash around, there's less to waste in general, and
       | especially for senior managers, less to steal.
       | 
       | We could implement my suggestion by making this more tax
       | favorable for everyone involved. Liberate the cash!
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | I think Stallman proposed limiting the amount of people working
         | for a single company.
        
         | zackmorris wrote:
         | Traditionally the answer to all of the economic problems we're
         | facing today was taxation.
         | 
         | You're right that antitrust cases will never be won at the
         | scale needed to have a material impact on the economy. Plus,
         | big companies will never allow reforms anyway, and will lobby
         | their way out of any loss. So what do we do? What are some
         | ethical and amicable solutions that can be applied evenly and
         | fairly to all citizens?
         | 
         | * Tax all property, not just homes. The US national property
         | tax averages 1.1%. So we should tax stocks and other assets at
         | around 1% also. Stockholders would choose to give up 1% of
         | their shares each year, or pay their cash value to keep them.
         | The current US stock market cap is $46 trillion, so 1% of that
         | would be $460 billion. We paid $4.8 trillion in taxes last
         | year, so this property tax would lower taxes for the rest of us
         | by about 10%. The average income tax paid is $20,000 per year,
         | so that would be about a $2000 savings per year.
         | 
         | * Charge sales tax on all property sales, including stocks. 5%
         | might be a bit high, and some states don't charge sales tax. So
         | a national rate would be needed to establish a baseline on
         | stock trades, something like 0.1% to 1% per trade. Losses could
         | be used as a tax write-off, so a final sales tax could be
         | charged at the end of the year, which might equal the property
         | tax. This could reasonably raise savings to between $2200 and
         | $4000 per year.
         | 
         | * Fund UBI with the wealth taxes stated above. $2000/yr is
         | $167/mo, but $4000 is $333 (about the cost of health insurance
         | or a student loan payment or rent in rural areas). Instead of
         | working to make rent, we could get back to getting real work
         | done.
         | 
         | * Organize. Tech could move to a cooperative model where
         | gains/losses are split across teams, and form unions to provide
         | actual resistive power against concentrated wealth:
         | https://www.npr.org/2023/01/04/1146861998/video-game-microso...
         | 
         | * Change the culture of tech. We could make the "I've got mine"
         | mentality of tech bros uncool. Wealth concentration makes
         | property a zero-sum game by forcing 90% of the population to
         | subsist on 10% of the wealth. So we could openly criticize
         | people who have assets above what they would need to retire
         | (perhaps $10 million). Wealth beyond that is an effective theft
         | of the time and resources of workers, who are forced to work to
         | continue paying dividends on that wealth. The opportunity cost
         | of that has grown to consume all of our time, giving us a lower
         | standard of living, less leisure time and less upward mobility
         | (by far) than we had before tickle-down economics which started
         | in the early 1980s:
         | https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/social-mobility-upwar...
         | 
         | Now to me, everything I said above is obvious. It's self-
         | evidently the way to fix the problem. Any child could
         | understand it. The real difficulty is around de-programming the
         | so-called thought leaders who currently benefit from the wealth
         | inequality status quo. We could and should call them out and
         | challenge them at every opportunity.
        
       | diegoholiveira wrote:
       | It's past time for the US to do to big tech what it did to
       | Standard Oil in 1911. In fact, new legislation is needed to
       | prevent this from happening in the first place.
       | 
       | And of course, it is also necessary to restrict the powers of the
       | state to end the possibility of a government that can do
       | anything.
        
       | echelon wrote:
       | We need Apple, Google, and the rest to have holes in them for the
       | good of the entire market. If big players dominate and suck all
       | the air out of the system, all of that money goes to
       | malinvestment and incrementalism. Vanity promo projects that get
       | closed in a year.
       | 
       | Big tech should win based on velocity and bringing value to
       | customers. They shouldn't be able to just coast. And little
       | companies should have a way of getting in without surrendering
       | all their margins to, eg., the App Store.
        
       | sailfast wrote:
       | I'm in favor of anti-trust initiatives, and I like startups.
       | 
       | That said, there were (anecdatally) a large number of people on
       | here (founders?) for awhile (maybe still?) that subscribed to the
       | Thiel school of ~"first to the monopoly wins!" which is good
       | potentially for a business, but absolutely terrible for any sort
       | of ecosystem (including, say, the earth). I'm not sure I like
       | startups with the goal of monopoly at the outset.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | mengibar10 wrote:
       | All companies strive/want/expect/hope/conspire for one thing for
       | cost: When purchasing for the input it would like to operate with
       | terms of a market economy but when selling their goods/services
       | they would like to be monopolistic. It's very a fundamental and
       | natural desire. Desire to kill competition is just a
       | manifestation of this fundamental rule.
        
       | efortis wrote:
       | > "maintain growth until the heat death of the universe..."
       | 
       | > "their pursuit of endless growth..."
       | 
       | Let me paste the first headline I can find today:
       | "Layoffs are sweeping Corporate America to kick off 2023"
        
         | sailfast wrote:
         | I believe the OP meant growth of revenue, and ideally of
         | profit. Layoffs in that case would actually be an improvement.
        
         | ClumsyPilot wrote:
         | At the sane time corporate profuts are record high
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | notpushkin wrote:
       | I still don't see why anti-trust matters here.
       | 
       | Say I make a search engine better than Google. If I market it, I
       | get some share of Google's users. The better my search engine is,
       | the more of user base I "steal".
       | 
       | What's wrong with that? Is there something Google can (legally)
       | do to stop me?
        
         | progfix wrote:
         | If your engine is better then they will buy it and shut you
         | down. Or they will put 100x as much money into marketing as you
         | have. Or they will hit you with law suits.
         | 
         | What I am trying to say is in practice big corporations have
         | many ways to get rid of their competion. For them there is no
         | need to be better.
        
         | jcparkyn wrote:
         | They can pay you lots of money to buy it off you, and then do
         | what they want with it. Great for you, but (potentially) bad
         | for all the prospective users. It also might be bad for all the
         | users who would have kept using Google either way, since less
         | competition allows Google to make a worse product (e.g., more
         | ads).
        
           | scarface74 wrote:
           | Why would a VC invest in a company if it knew its main avenue
           | of getting a return was being cut off?
        
             | jdub wrote:
             | The return.
        
             | jcparkyn wrote:
             | I'm not sure I follow. How does that relate to my comment?
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | The hypothetical search engine isn't going to exist
               | without investors who are expecting a return.
        
           | notpushkin wrote:
           | > They can pay you lots of money to buy it off you
           | 
           | Only if you have investors that can force you to sell. I know
           | that "just bootstrap your own search engine lol" is not an
           | answer, but I do think there's some middle ground.
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | If you're actually a threat to them and still think so, it
             | just means they haven't offered you _enough_ money. They
             | 'll keep doubling the offer until you (or your family)
             | starts to question whether sticking to your product vision
             | is worth forgoing a once-in-a-lifetime option to literally
             | _win at life_ with a single signature.
        
         | ben-schaaf wrote:
         | Google owns the web browser your users use to access your
         | search engine. Google owns the search engine your users use to
         | find yours. Google owns the ad platform you use to market your
         | search engine. Google owns a large share of the software used
         | to run alternate web browsers. Anti-trust is what stands in the
         | way of google: Preventing your search engine from being used
         | with chrome. Making your website not work with chrome anymore.
         | Delisting your websites from google search. Removing your ads.
         | Blocking your emails.
         | 
         | What are you going to do other than close your business when
         | you've been effectively blocked from the internet?
        
           | hooande wrote:
           | Do you expect Google to do any of these things to OpenAI, if
           | ChatGPT becomes the google killer that some people say it
           | could be? It's very difficult for me to imagine any of that.
           | 
           | OpenAI isn't one person starting a search engine in their
           | garage. But they acquired the reputation and resources to
           | protect them from the behavior you describe through
           | conventional means. And others can do the same.
        
             | input_sh wrote:
             | I don't believe ChatGPT-based solution will ever replace
             | Google, but if someone tries and gains enough traction
             | they'll encounter at least one of those issues and be on
             | top of HN for that.
             | 
             | Google will find some plausible excuse, something deep in
             | ToS they broke, competitor will not be able to work around
             | it or reach someone within Google to explain to them what
             | exactly need to do to restore that part of service.
             | 
             | We'll all suspect Google has done so intentionally and
             | maliciously, but nobody will be able to prove that beyond
             | doubt.
        
             | ClumsyPilot wrote:
             | > they acquired the reputation and resources to protect
             | them from the behavior you describe through conventional
             | means.
             | 
             | And without antitrust, what would those conventional means
             | be? norhing
        
             | connor11528 wrote:
             | Google could buy OpenAI in a heartbeat unless the
             | government stepped in to disallow it. We've seen this
             | before with amazing company Figma founded to beat Adobe.
             | Way better product but instead of Adobe dying or having to
             | innovate they bought Figma
        
             | ben-schaaf wrote:
             | I expect that when Google faces real competition against
             | their core business they will be assessing the legal risk
             | of every anti-competitive move they make, like every
             | monopoly before them.
             | 
             | Be that buying the competition, dumping to kill the
             | competitors business, slapping them with lawsuits or making
             | their competition illegal through lobbying.
        
         | input_sh wrote:
         | > The better my search engine is, the more of user base I
         | "steal".
         | 
         | Very bold assumption on your part.
         | 
         | Google's not #1 because it's orders of magnitude better than
         | anything else anyone could come up with. It's #1 because
         | Chrome's #1, while #2 (Safari) and #4 (Firefox) receive
         | millions each year to keep it as default.
         | 
         | Your alternative, even if objectively better (whatever that
         | means for a search engine) will never take a significant chunk
         | of Google's market share because you can't outpay Google to get
         | it into people's pockets by default. That's what anti-trust is
         | about.
        
           | notpushkin wrote:
           | > Google's not #1 because it's orders of magnitude better
           | than anything else
           | 
           | That was the assumption in the OP article - at least, that it
           | was better than competitors at first. Of course, being the
           | default plays a significant role in it keeping its popularity
           | nowadays, but I still believe it can be worked around (and
           | will be, but it'll take time).
        
             | input_sh wrote:
             | It's still better than everything else in my opinion. I use
             | DDG by default, but sometimes have to revert back to
             | Google. But those are rare enough that it's not
             | _signifanctly_ better than anything else. Something better
             | will come eventually, but it 'll be a very uphill battle.
             | Enthusiasts will use it (myself included), most other
             | people will not.
             | 
             | TikTok is the only example I can think of of something
             | succeeding in the past decade that's _not_ from a company
             | that also offers like a million other products. That 's the
             | power of having a monopoly.
             | 
             | If it gets regulated _a bit_ (example: you get a prompt to
             | choose your default search engine when you first open a
             | browser), Google /Apple/Microsoft/Amazon might lose a
             | dominant position in a category or two, but they have a
             | dominant position in so many other categories that it'll
             | mean nothing to them.
             | 
             | The only possible solution is regulating them _hard_ ,
             | forcing each of those to dissolve into a dozen smaller
             | companies and preventing them from buying up the
             | competition even further. Then and only then will startups
             | have a shot at snatching up a significant number of
             | categories to _really_ endanger what we now know as the Big
             | Four.
        
         | afterburner wrote:
         | Google is paying Mozilla $450 million a year to be the default
         | search on Firefox. How well can you compete against that?
        
           | connor11528 wrote:
           | Plus $12 billion Google pays Apple every year to be default
           | search on safari.
           | 
           | https://www.businessinsider.com/google-apple-search-deal-
           | doj...
        
         | nathias wrote:
         | if you become good google can just buy you
        
         | jdub wrote:
         | Take all the answers to your question. Then consider that
         | they're not just the reasons you'll have trouble competing,
         | they're the reasons you won't bother starting.
        
         | nativeit wrote:
         | Tell you what, go open a customer support ticket with Google
         | for assistance with a Google Workspace account.
         | 
         | Now, once you have discovered that this very normal and routine
         | process literally does not exist, you might spend a little time
         | researching how in the world this could be the case: even if
         | you've spent thousands on that Google Workspace account, your
         | only options are A) community support forums full of unpaid
         | users helping users (Aw, isn't that altruistic of those kindly
         | users?) or, B) go away and deal with your problems yourself.
         | 
         | Anti-competitive practices and wielding a de facto monopoly
         | position are perhaps not the singular or direct cause of this
         | frankly astonishing lack of respect for their users, but it is
         | _absolutely_ tightly correlated with such open distaste for the
         | people purchasing and using their products.
         | 
         | Lastly, not for nothing, but Google's own origin story and
         | wildly successful history are literally the result of anti-
         | trust actions taken against their establishment competitors in
         | the late 1990's/early 2000's.
        
           | notpushkin wrote:
           | To be honest I don't see how this is relevant here.
           | 
           | Anyhow, there's a lot of Google Workspace competitors,
           | switching to one of them shouldn't be a problem (at least for
           | internal communications; sharing a self-hosted OnlyOffice
           | link with somebody expecting a Google Docs document would be
           | mildly weird).
        
             | connor11528 wrote:
             | I think the point if you're a small customer or vendor big
             | companies don't have to care about you and can treat their
             | customers like shit. Airlines come to mind. Also, sellers
             | on Amazon can be abused by the giant and have little
             | recourse because Amazon controls so much internet commerce.
             | The point I think is that monopolies can treat their
             | customers like shit and get away with it.
        
           | scarface74 wrote:
           | And Google Workspaces is a nothingburger in its market and
           | you choose its major competitor..
        
             | connor11528 wrote:
             | Similar point if you're on Southwest Airlines support. A
             | true monopoly could close all support functions and people
             | would have to deal with it because there'd be nowhere else
             | to go
        
         | return_to_monke wrote:
         | Google buys your startup, and then shuts it down.
        
       | scarface74 wrote:
       | This is dumb and idealistic. The only purpose of VC funded tech
       | companies is to have an exit. Statistically by being bought by
       | one of the giants or being foist onto the public markets where
       | the public is the "greater fool".
       | 
       | In the past decade, only one tech company has made a dent in the
       | market _and_ become consistently profitable - AirBnB.
        
       | lannisterstark wrote:
       | The issue with this becomes that anti-trust then becomes the tool
       | of the $CurrentRegime to break up companies THEY dislike.
       | 
       | For example, part of the reason US costs for healthcare are
       | skyhigh IS because of US govt regulation. IF the only applied it
       | to healthcare giants, but they won't, because they're not the
       | companies the govt dislikes, also $$$.
       | 
       | All this will do is end up giving more power to the govt to break
       | up the only thing that actually has the capability endangers
       | their power-hoarding : big companies.
       | 
       | Ultimately, Govt IS the biggest company, and you rarely have a
       | choice to switch. If I don't like Amazon, I can go to walmart, or
       | local store. I can't just willy nilly pack up and leave the
       | country.
       | 
       | People support regulations (or hell, $MeasureX) until the govt
       | comes for the thing they like, despite people like us telling
       | them that eventually the govt will do just that. (Eg, abortion in
       | the US : People like us were telling others that if they stampede
       | on our rights, they will stampede on yours too, given the
       | chance).
        
         | Pozzuh wrote:
         | You neglect to mention there actually is a "choice to switch"
         | with regard to the government: it's democracy.
        
           | lannisterstark wrote:
           | "democracy" is "democracy" in name only in many countries.
           | Eg, in the US, Republicans and Democrats are fairly similar
           | middle of the road people. In India, what democracy lol? Same
           | in egypt.
           | 
           | "democracy" also depends on others wnating the same change as
           | you. You alone can't do jackshit.
           | 
           | I alone can choose not to shop at amazon and choose walmart
           | intead.
        
       | theptip wrote:
       | Oft-overlooked, but this applies beyond "big tech" too. The US
       | has for decades lagged behind most developed countries on
       | broadband internet speed, largely due to the uncompetitive
       | markets.
       | 
       | Things like Local Loop Unbundling (back when ADSL was a thing)
       | and allowing/encouraging municipalities to run FTTH would improve
       | things a lot, but the incumbents have lobbied hard against such
       | policies that would force more competition.
        
         | TheRealPomax wrote:
         | Sort of, but the problem with ISPs is "who owns the
         | infrastructure?" because it doesn't matter how much you want
         | ISP competition if the actual cables are owned by an ISP rather
         | than an independent infrastructure company that ISPs are only
         | allowed to contract to lay new cable without any say in who
         | gets to use it.
         | 
         | (The US absolutely _adores_ vertical integration. A company can
         | own the land, the infrastructure, the access to that
         | infrastructure, the services that run on that infrastructure
         | AND strip your rights to the court by forcing you into
         | accepting binding arbitration instead, and the US will point
         | and it with starry eyes and proclaim it a shining example of
         | success)
        
           | theptip wrote:
           | Right, LLU addresses exactly this by requiring network
           | operators to open up their local exchanges to competitors,
           | basically forcing a decoupling of the "last mile delivery"
           | (which is a natural monopoly) from the internet service
           | provision (which is more competitive).
           | 
           | It's quite clearly beneficial to consumers to do this, but
           | companies hate it of course.
        
       | userabchn wrote:
       | Progressive corporate tax rates (like personal income taxes,
       | instead of the current flat corporate tax rates) would help small
       | companies to compete with big ones simply and naturally without
       | needing governments to decide what constitutes a monopoly.
        
       | mkl95 wrote:
       | If you like startups you should hate noncompete clauses and love
       | anti-trust. Somehow they coexist in many areas.
        
       | monero-xmr wrote:
       | My problem with anti-trust is my problem with taxing the rich.
       | How do you define rich? How can you logically explain why, say,
       | $999,999 per year is not rich but $1,000,000 per year is?
       | Wouldn't a homeless person say everyone with a roof is rich? It's
       | simply illogical.
       | 
       | With anti-trust, it's defining monopolies. Maybe a company like
       | Google dominates search advertising. But they don't compete
       | economically in search, they compete economically in digital
       | advertising - or is it all of advertising? Isn't Amazon and Apple
       | eating their shirt in new spend on search ads? By the time the
       | anti-trust case works itself through the courts it's often that
       | the "monopoly" has fallen quite a bit from their perch.
       | 
       | Now to get to start ups. Startups being acquired WANT to be
       | acquired - otherwise they wouldn't be sold. There is no gun that
       | makes them be sold - their shareholders agree to it. If you love
       | startups, you should be pro-founder, and that means letting them
       | be sold if they want it. Otherwise it's simply coercion and
       | authoritarianism to prevent an owner to do what they want with
       | their company they put their blood and sweat into.
        
         | int_19h wrote:
         | How about this.
         | 
         | If any person wants to have no restriction on their business in
         | terms of size, anti-competitiveness etc, then they are welcome
         | to do so - provided that they can build their monopoly without
         | incorporating. Hire as many workers as you want, expand as much
         | as you want - but you have full personal liability for
         | everything that your business does, as it is under natural law.
         | 
         | OTOH if you want a fictitious legal entity to shield yourself
         | from liability, then the society is happy to accommodate - but
         | it comes with strings attached, and one of those is anti-trust.
        
         | valenterry wrote:
         | What you say isn't really wrong, but I guess there is a
         | different perspective.
         | 
         | I wish there were more startups that just keep operating
         | standalone without being bought. Having the often passionate
         | founders staying in control and evolving their company.
         | 
         | Of course, if they can sell than they get more money out of
         | that and maybe have time for something else/new. But at the
         | same time, how does it impact society if passionate founders
         | leave all the time? Maybe that isn't really great for the
         | overall progress.
         | 
         | On the other hand, were there less startups if they can't be
         | sold/bought as easily? I'm not sure, but I imagine the impact
         | wouldn't be so huge, since I expect for most people, selling
         | their company is more the icing on the cake and not the major
         | reason why they start something on their own.
        
           | monero-xmr wrote:
           | I believe in freedom and individual rights. It's so hard to
           | build a company. Very hard. Try it yourself someday if you
           | don't believe me. Small, medium, large, lifestyle, whatever
           | your endgame is I guarantee it's 100x harder than you
           | envisioned.
           | 
           | You say you wish more startups operated standalone. Is it
           | possible that the same person who can build a company from
           | zero to 100 people isn't qualified and / or wanting to take
           | it from 100 to 1000 people? Shouldn't it be her right to sell
           | her asset, and start something new?
           | 
           | Some people believe that society has some claim on companies,
           | meaning the government should be able to arbitrarily coerce
           | any company of any size to do anything. Less-logical people
           | claim that society has a claim when a company reaches some
           | threshold of size (which makes no sense as no one can explain
           | what that size is except "eh I guess a billion dollars in
           | revenue").
           | 
           | The only defensible logic is to let the owner do what they
           | want. Otherwise it's authoritarian.
        
             | connor11528 wrote:
             | I feel like the logic here is that if companies behave
             | badly enough competitors will emerge and kill the bad
             | company. This school of thought was first pioneered by
             | Robert Bork in the 70s along with the "consumer welfare
             | standard" that hey if you can't prove it's hurting
             | consumers then who cares. This is the dominant view of
             | establishment antitrust lawyers to this day and why
             | American industries from chocolate to diapers to national
             | defense are concentrated.
             | 
             | The reality is that if the owners do what they want they
             | will buy competitors, rent seek and not innovate. If the
             | government seeks to meddle they will buy lobbyists.
             | Additionally firms that have their market cornered will
             | squeeze workers and their vendors. Finally close ties
             | between concentrated industry and the government leads to
             | more authoritarian rule.
        
               | monero-xmr wrote:
               | In 2021, American companies represented 65% of global
               | stock value.
               | 
               | https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/top-100-companies-
               | usa...
               | 
               | America has 4% of global population. This tiny country
               | population-wise is beating the shit out of everyone else
               | by 1000x in economic and military might. Maybe you should
               | see our system in a better light.
        
               | crummy wrote:
               | By this argument there can be no flaws in the American
               | system, right?
        
               | monero-xmr wrote:
               | How about advocating for an economic revolution to align
               | the system closer to Argentina and Venezuela is dumb
               | considering the US is clearly the best on earth by a
               | significant margin? No one prevents you from moving away.
        
               | tchaffee wrote:
               | Who here is advocating for Argentina's or Venuzuala's
               | economic system?
               | 
               | If it's 100 degrees in the room and I want it to be
               | cooler that doesn't mean I'm advocating for the room to
               | be 0 degrees. Your need to exaggerate the point of others
               | points to a weakness in your own argument.
        
               | tchaffee wrote:
               | All of the system? Including the progressive taxes?
               | 
               | You should also consider that we don't serve the economy.
               | The economy should serve us.
               | 
               | Of that economic output you're so proud of, the vast
               | majority of it ends up in the hands of rich people. Why
               | would the average person want to defend that system?
        
               | valenterry wrote:
               | Note that 65% of global stock value does _not_ mean 65%
               | of global value. The US has a much higher number of
               | public companies. That doesn 't mean that they are
               | better.
        
             | valenterry wrote:
             | > Is it possible that the same person who can build a
             | company from zero to 100 people isn't qualified and / or
             | wanting to take it from 100 to 1000 people? Shouldn't it be
             | her right to sell her asset, and start something new?
             | 
             | Well, they don't have to sell the company to start
             | something new. They can hire/appoint someone to take care
             | and essentially only roughly supervise them which really
             | doesn't take much time. The only difference is really the
             | ownership part.
             | 
             | I still get your point and yeah, it is a disadvantage. But
             | individual freedom has to be balanced against the needs of
             | the whole society too.
             | 
             | > The only defensible logic is to let the owner do what
             | they want. Otherwise it's authoritarian.
             | 
             | Not really. Look, the owners of companies benefit from
             | society as well. They get infrastructure, stability,
             | especially laws and their enforcement and so on. This is
             | not a given. The society doesn't let random people do what
             | they want, e.g. steal from the owner of the company. Would
             | you call that authoritarian? Certainly not. Neither is
             | putting boundaries of what you can do with the stuff you
             | own.
        
         | jakelazaroff wrote:
         | _> My problem with anti-trust is my problem with taxing the
         | rich. How do you define rich? How can you logically explain
         | why, say, $999,999 per year is not rich but $1,000,000 per year
         | is? Wouldn't a homeless person say everyone with a roof is
         | rich? It's simply illogical._
         | 
         | We all put our heads together and say "how much money should
         | you be able to make before you start needing to give a lot of
         | it back?" (or alternately, "how much market share should you be
         | able to get before you're broken up?") and then that's the
         | number. Some people will want that number to be higher, some
         | people will want it to be lower, but ultimately we (mostly)
         | agree that it's better for all of us if we follow these rules
         | around that number.
        
           | monero-xmr wrote:
           | I think you are advocating for a flat tax, meaning everyone
           | pays the same percent. This is fair and logical to me.
           | 
           | What I don't understand is progressive taxes, which make you
           | pay more once you hit some arbitrary threshold. Very
           | illogical.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | Chinjut wrote:
             | From your original post, you seem to feel progressive taxes
             | requires some sort of absurdly different treatment for
             | people who make $999,999/yr vs $1,000,000/yr, or at
             | whatever threshold, but that is not at all how they
             | function. Even with discrete jumps in marginal tax rates
             | (as in the current system of progressive income tax in the
             | U.S.), post-tax income is a continuous monotonic function
             | of pre-tax income. Making a little more pre-tax income
             | always results in making a little more post-tax income.
        
               | monero-xmr wrote:
               | My problem is that no one can logically explain why they
               | chose what thresholds. It doesn't mean anything, they
               | just decided some number. I can play games and avoid that
               | number. It's absurd
        
               | Chinjut wrote:
               | Why are you playing games to avoid that number? There's
               | no big difference in being slightly above vs slightly
               | below that number. Indeed, it's slightly better to be
               | slightly above.
        
               | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
               | Is saying "if you cross this line, you're rich" any more
               | absurd than the whole money thing is in the first place?
        
               | Buttons840 wrote:
               | There is a common fallacy that going up a tax bracket can
               | result in taking home less money. For example, sometimes
               | you'll hear apocryphal stories about someone turning down
               | a small raise because they did the math and realized it
               | would move them into the next tax bracket and result in
               | them taking home less money. That's not how progressive
               | taxes work, and such stories are incorrect. I just wanted
               | to double check that you understand this, right?
        
               | monero-xmr wrote:
               | You are speaking as a non-wealthy person.
               | 
               | If I have significant sums of equities, I can sell half
               | on Dec 31 and half on Jan 1 to avoid a new bracket. I try
               | to avoid speaking much about my situation, but my tax
               | advisors and I use every trick in the book to play all
               | the games available, of which this is but one.
               | 
               | My issue is not that I have dedicated a lot of time and
               | money to avoid taxes, but really that the tax rules are
               | so arbitrary and stupid to begin with.
        
               | Chinjut wrote:
               | Your advocacy for a wealth tax on unrealized capital
               | gains is compelling. Let us adopt that.
        
               | monero-xmr wrote:
               | A wealth tax! Even France tried and abandoned that! Do
               | you have any idea the side effects that would cause?
               | Suddenly I would be a pauper, how simple this would be.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | rnk wrote:
               | We have wealth taxes. They are called property taxes in
               | the US. I have to pay a percentage of the value of my
               | house. And I can't sell a tiny piece of my house to cover
               | it. I have to use my other funds to pay for it. That
               | seems so unfair, the poor weak billionaires of the world
               | say. When My house goes up in value, my tax will go up,
               | and down works the other way too.
               | 
               | Billionaires cry and moan about the impossibility of
               | paying a wealth tax on their billions in stock. They can
               | manage to do it, just like all the rest of us. The wealth
               | tax is claimed to be this exotic impossible thing. Yet
               | most every home owner in the us is paying, us 100 million
               | plus people. Surely the rich, those who have millions or
               | billions can do the same. The reason they don't is they
               | have captured the legislature, their fox new advertising
               | is very successful, no one wants to tax the very wealthy
               | because surely they will be wealthy one day.
        
               | monero-xmr wrote:
               | Out of all the possible ways you can tax me, a wealth tax
               | is easily the dumbest and easiest to avoid. I wish the US
               | would do it just to show the world why this is so absurd.
               | I don't even want to get into it, just that the folly
               | would be enormous and my laughter very loud.
        
               | jakelazaroff wrote:
               | Is it "suddenly I would be a pauper" or "a wealth tax is
               | dumb and easy to avoid"? I'm really not sure what you're
               | trying to say here.
        
               | monero-xmr wrote:
               | You guys are scatterbrained. The issue seems to be wealth
               | - you don't like it! Even if we all started absolutely
               | equal, if someone became rich, that is a problem society
               | must solve.
               | 
               | But the problem isn't being rich - clearly you replying
               | to me are rich - you know what I'm saying, you are
               | commenting on HN, I would bet you are upper middle class.
               | The problem is being _too rich_ , as defined by you, the
               | merely rich. And I am clearly too rich or at least
               | advocating support for them for your taste.
               | 
               | So what to do, what to do!?! You want to tax me and give
               | it to the democratically elected government to
               | redistribute. But how to create rules that tax only me
               | and not yourself? And prevent me from looking on paper
               | like I'm like you?
               | 
               | Well to start with we have family foundations and donor
               | advised funds. I can pay my children and extended family
               | (anyone I want) market rates out of that. My son can get
               | paid $350k per year with a legit W2 to be a VP of some
               | bullshit saving the world. I can immediately move income
               | and capital into a DAF to take the tax write off.
               | 
               | My wealth - wow - I could put it all into an entity and
               | get a giant loan against it collateralized by this
               | bucket. Suddenly I'm not rich, I'm indebted up to my
               | eyeballs!
               | 
               | And if you want to pass ever more rules to stop me, well,
               | I'm plugged into the elite class and it always seems that
               | holes the size of a Mack Truck provide an escape. Google
               | QSBS sometime for yet another fun rabbit hole.
               | 
               | Good luck my leftist friends!
        
               | Chinjut wrote:
               | You mock leftists as having futile aspirations, thanks to
               | your tax dodging abilities. But we do have progressive
               | taxation as a rather strongly entrenched policy in the
               | United States and most of the rest of the world, so in
               | that sense, you are the one with a futile task ahead of
               | you, in your aspiration to eliminate it. Good luck!
        
               | monero-xmr wrote:
               | It's like looking into a crystal ball that changes as you
               | twist it.
               | 
               | On one end, yes, progressive taxation is the goal of laws
               | at the high level.
               | 
               | But on the other, the implementation of such a policy is
               | impossible, so if you have 3 degrees of separation
               | between the goal and individuals trying to act in their
               | own self interest, the folly becomes obvious.
               | 
               | Human behavior is unchanging, and so is the nature of
               | those in power. The elite leftists will pass any amount
               | of nonsense policies but will violate it themselves at
               | will and protect their own elites.
               | 
               | I can't really explain it other than you need to view the
               | system properly and shake the crystal ball.
               | 
               | Put yourself in my shoes - pay millions in taxes, or pay
               | a firm $100k and sign a bunch of documents to save
               | millions in taxes. I'm not a sucker.
        
               | jakelazaroff wrote:
               | This doesn't really address my question, or any of my
               | other comments, and I haven't really said anything about
               | being rich or not -- just that we should be able to make
               | decisions as a society. That seems to disagree with you?
               | So, uh, good luck with whatever weird tax scheme you have
               | going on, I guess.
        
               | monero-xmr wrote:
               | I guess if you have no position then your commenting
               | makes no sense and probably you should not bother.
               | 
               | If what it seems is that you want society to vote on how
               | much to steal from me, my point is a flat income tax is
               | the most fair and straightforwards, and eliminate as many
               | exceptions as you can.
               | 
               | But given my knowledge of this situation that's
               | impossible and it won't happen, so good luck with your
               | wealth taxes.
        
               | Chinjut wrote:
               | Out of all the possible ways you can persuade me,
               | refraining from even providing an argument is easily the
               | least effective.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | kennywinker wrote:
               | The logic of a progressive tax is that tax is supporting
               | the system that we all exist in and benefit from. I pay
               | less tax than someone who makes more than me because they
               | are extracting more wealth from the system than I am.
               | 
               | Yes, the brackets are arbitrary. But if everything is
               | working in a democracy, then it should be set by the
               | majority to follow the curve of what the majority of
               | people make in some reasonable way. But, it's not in
               | america, because money is speech apparently so rich
               | people buy votes and keep their progressive taxes lower
               | than they would otherwise be.
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | > It doesn't mean anything, they just decided some
               | number.
               | 
               | You pain doesn't mean anything,you cant even assign it a
               | number
               | 
               | What, you want strong painkillers for your surgery? What
               | does 'a lot of pain' even means?
               | 
               | If you can't precisely define how much pain you have I
               | wont give you a prescription. So illogical!
        
             | jakelazaroff wrote:
             | I'm not really advocating for anything. I'm saying that
             | some people say "these people making a lot of money are
             | benefitting more from society, they should pay more" and
             | other people say "actually they deserve to keep what they
             | get" and we all argue and vote and come up with a system
             | that everyone can mostly live with.
             | 
             | Sure, it's arbitrary, but so is the flat tax percentage
             | you're talking about. Tons of laws are arbitrary. Speed
             | limits aren't some emergent property of the universe, or
             | etched onto stone tablets by Adonai himself, but that
             | doesn't mean we should let people do 90 in a school zone.
        
         | rnk wrote:
         | That argument is completely unpersuasive. Startups might be
         | forced to be in a position to be sold because their huge
         | company competitors might be pressuring their potential
         | customers not to use them (think amazon vs a new startup
         | offering some database capability). If you can bundle your
         | version of something or charge almost nothing, you starve the
         | startup of any market.
        
           | monero-xmr wrote:
           | It sounds like you want to ban competition. Surely if I own
           | an ice cream truck, and I want to include a cone with my ice
           | cream, that doesn't mean I'm damaging the independent cone
           | seller? Why is that fair but bundling a database is not?
        
             | connor11528 wrote:
             | Bundling per se isn't a problem. It becomes illegal when a
             | firm uses market power to destroy competitors. If you're
             | interested in learning more I suggest reading about the
             | Robinson-Patman Act (1936) and Clayton Antitrust Act (1914)
             | as well as the Sherman Act (1890)
        
             | llbeansandrice wrote:
             | What a bogus hypothetical. What market exists to buy
             | individual cones?
             | 
             | It's not the bundling that's the problem, it's dropping
             | prices of a single product in a single market to destroy
             | competition in that space while staying afloat with VC or
             | other revenue streams/products.
        
               | monero-xmr wrote:
               | So you say! I included a cone for FREE with my ice cream.
               | I have dropped the price to zero!
               | 
               | If we banned ice cream trucks from selling cones, surely
               | an independent cone business would spring up if market
               | demand existed.
               | 
               | This contrived example is to prove my point - you claim
               | I'm speaking absurdities, but if I claim bundling a
               | database (or caching solution, or search engine,
               | whatever) is merely a convenience, you cry foul. Nothing
               | is logical here
        
               | hattmall wrote:
               | Your example is not analogous. It is more accurate to say
               | you are an ice cream seller and the only ice cream
               | seller. Their is a thriving market of sellers for donuts
               | and you wish to sell donuts so you give away free donuts
               | with all the ice cream you sale. Not because this is your
               | value proposition, but because you wish to make the donut
               | business untenable for anyone other than the largest ice
               | cream seller.
               | 
               | That is antithetical to competition. There should be
               | limits or a prohibition on subsidizing horizontal or
               | vertical business integrations. The limits should be
               | related to the long term consumer value proposition.
        
               | Dracophoenix wrote:
               | > It's not the bundling that's the problem, it's dropping
               | prices of a single product in a single market to destroy
               | competition in that space while staying afloat with VC or
               | other revenue streams/products.
               | 
               | The same could be said of open-source software. Most
               | open-source software are clones of commercial products,
               | supported by free labor, and provided at $0. The most
               | successful ones undermine their commercial counterpart
               | and may go so far as to destroy a previously
               | commercially-viable industry.
               | 
               | As an example, do you think Linux should be regulated out
               | of existence because its provided at a unsustainably low
               | cost with respect to the competition? If Linux didn't
               | exist, commercial Unix could still be a competitive
               | market. Linux's expansion has also resulted in the
               | deterioration of the consumer OS market, where there had
               | previously been AmigaOS, AtariTOS, VMS, Solaris, BeOS,
               | etc. Linux is also backed by a cartel of commercial
               | supporters that influence what gets added, what gets
               | supported, and what gets kept out. Obviously, these
               | decisions affect what hardware and software consumers
               | would consider purchasing/supporting.
        
               | llbeansandrice wrote:
               | You're right that these OS projects can and do destroy
               | the competitive market for their space, but critically
               | they are both free (as in beer and often as in freedom as
               | well) and open. Their reason for being free is not for
               | market capture to destroy competition and then drive up
               | prices.
               | 
               | Amazon bundling a service and providing it at reduced
               | cost to capture the market is neither free nor is it
               | open.
        
         | tchaffee wrote:
         | > How do you define rich.
         | 
         | As social animals humans are exceedingly skilled at determining
         | fairness if they decide as a group. They will never get it
         | perfect but they will get close enough. Your argument is a
         | schoolboy argument: if the pie can't be divided _exactly_ then
         | you get most of it because you 're bigger.
         | 
         | Progressive taxes don't need the precision you're demanding.
         | It's a strawman argument.
        
         | connor11528 wrote:
         | Too much concentration of economic power will translate into
         | political power. We see this already with how much Meta, Google
         | and Amazon spend on lobbying. Excessive concentration of
         | economic power breeds antidemocratic political pressures. Sure
         | there's an argument to be had about the freedom to sell your
         | company but there's also American industrial policy, workers
         | rights, industry resilience and consumer protections to
         | consider.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | phh wrote:
       | One of my personal projects that I never pushed forward is a blog
       | "a monopoly a day" (under-titled "keeps the EU away"). The idea
       | is that everyday, I want to show small-ish negative impact of a
       | big tech monopoly, and explaining it. The goal is that the sheer
       | recurrence is enough to convince people of the negative impact on
       | innovation and societal growth big companies have.
       | 
       | (That's with a pretty broad definition of "monopoly", including
       | "user-specific monopoly" like you get with android / ios, notions
       | that I would also try to explain in said blog)
       | 
       | One example:
       | 
       | > https://mobilesyrup.com/2016/09/27/why-blackberry-never-rele...
       | 
       | > I believe this one shows how a monopoly can prevent innovation.
       | Blackberry with the Passport had a new form-factor. To make this
       | phone worthwhile, it had to use a mainline OS. At the time, only
       | Android with Google apps was available. However, Google rules
       | back then couldn't allow this.
       | 
       | Would HNers be interested in such content? And in contributing to
       | it? (my knowledge wrt monopolies is in my area of expertise, and
       | let's just say I like being employable, so it's better if it
       | doesn't look completely targetted)
        
         | hbrn wrote:
         | > The goal is that the sheer recurrence is enough to convince
         | people of the negative impact on innovation and societal growth
         | big companies have.
         | 
         | I don't think anyone disagrees that monopolies are cancer.
         | 
         | The hard part is coming up with a targeted cure that attacks
         | monopolies without hurting innovation.
         | 
         | So far that seems impossible. Almost like monopolies are a
         | natural result of innovation.
        
         | javajosh wrote:
         | Yes, I would like that. It's nice to have a place to record
         | negative experiences in a way that might contribute to a
         | positive outcome eventually. Some of the best (and most
         | verboten) content will come, of course, from insiders.
         | 
         | One issue I foresee, similar to how local business groups
         | inevitably get overwhelmed with real-estate agents, is that
         | this venture will get overwhelmed with complaints against ISPs
         | and other utilities.
        
         | snowwrestler wrote:
         | This project would be interesting only to the extent it
         | accurately showed the negative impact of monopolies.
         | 
         | Unfortunately, this subject area is full of strong emotions and
         | opinions that make it hard for people to be objective.
         | 
         | For example the article you link says that Google and
         | Blackberry worked jointly on the 1:1 format phone, and jointly
         | decided to stop working on it. That hardly sounds like an
         | abusive monopolist.
         | 
         | And sure, at that point Android was more popular than the
         | BlackBerry OS. But this actually demonstrates healthy
         | competition. I had a Blackberry for work (edit to clarify:
         | running BlackBerry's own OS and software), and so did all my
         | coworkers. Blackberry was the dominant mobile platform once.
         | Through complacency and poor decision-making, they stopped
         | innovating and competing. And thus, allowed new products with
         | zero installed base on day one to come in and take their
         | market.
        
           | phh wrote:
           | > Unfortunately, this subject area is full of strong emotions
           | and opinions that make it hard for people to be objective.
           | 
           | I actually think it's not possible to be objective on that
           | matter, hence it needs to be properly explained, to
           | understand the limitations of one post (but the goal is to
           | have many posts, so hopefully readers can reject the ones
           | they feel is wrong)
           | 
           | > For example the article you link says that Google and
           | Blackberry worked jointly on the 1:1 format phone, and
           | jointly decided to stop working on it. That hardly sounds
           | like an abusive monopolist.
           | 
           | Let's just say that I've seen a bit of first-hand, and a lot
           | of second-hand of "Google working jointly with XXX", and in
           | the vast majority, Google-side doesn't spend much engineering
           | time on those issues. I completely agree this is not an
           | objective point of view. This can hardly be proved, shown or
           | explained, so I have no issue with you not taking my word for
           | it. Hopefully if other people join this project, there might
           | turn out /some/ people that you do trust?
           | 
           | > And sure, at that point Android was more popular than the
           | BlackBerry OS. But this actually demonstrates healthy
           | competition. I had a Blackberry for work, and so did all my
           | coworkers. Blackberry was the dominant mobile platform once.
           | 
           | I wouldn't exactly call the replacement of BBOS by Android a
           | "healthy competition", when the main reason Android won was
           | that it was an OS completely free of charge, paid for by
           | another recurring stream for the company. (I'm not saying
           | Android was worse than BBOS, that I have no idea, )
           | 
           | > Through complacency and poor decision-making, they stopped
           | innovating and competing. And thus, allowed new products with
           | zero installed base on day one to come in and take their
           | market.
           | 
           | That's irrelevant, and belongs to opinions.
        
             | snowwrestler wrote:
             | The iPhone came out before Android, was more expensive than
             | a Blackberry at first, but started taking share from RIM.
             | It also caused the Android project at Google to reset
             | (their initial phone was similar to a Blackberry before the
             | iPhone launch).
             | 
             | RIM's complacency and flat-footed response to the iPhone
             | has been very well covered, and can be Googled. By the time
             | they were trying to partner with Google, it was already too
             | late for them. Android is not what killed the Blackberry.
        
               | oautholaf wrote:
               | Not reset, reprioritize. Fred Vogelstein only talked to
               | one source who was on the Android team for his book, and
               | that source may have had their own agenda.
               | 
               | Other sources, such as Chet Haas's book, make it clear
               | that what became the G1 was already on the roadmap. It
               | was just prioritized.
        
               | mindslight wrote:
               | Except this assumption that there can be only a few
               | winners taking all and the rest end up "killed" is
               | exactly what effective anti-trust would prevent. Imagine
               | the possibility where Blackberry kept making devices that
               | fit their niche of hardware keyboards, running Android,
               | and selling them to their established customers.
               | 
               | The elephant in the room is the heavy natural monopoly on
               | software compatibility/interoperability, and the above
               | thought experiment only makes sense because Android is a
               | purportedly open platform.
               | 
               | Effective tech anti-trust has to work around _that_ and
               | not merely police behavior aimed at restricting
               | competition. Modern tech anti-trust should be focused
               | around mandating open access to proprietary systems (for
               | starters, anything a web user can do, a program running
               | on the user 's behalf should be able to do), and privacy
               | legislation to make it so that customers have to be
               | earned rather than everyone being treated as a data
               | subject by default.
        
         | VieEnCode wrote:
         | Absolutely, especially as it feels like the "competition is for
         | losers" people are completely running the show these days.
         | 
         | Do it and post it on here. Just be prepared to be flagged a
         | lot.
        
           | enos_feedler wrote:
           | Isn't the whole idea that you would build something new to
           | escape the competition of the current monopolies and succeed?
           | "competition for losers" might be running the show, but it's
           | also the pump in the cycles of disruption. It should always
           | be running the show.
        
         | jollofricepeas wrote:
         | Have you considered maybe reaching out to Matt Stoller?
         | 
         | It seems what you're envisioning has a ton of overlap with his
         | work covering monopolies.
         | 
         | I'm sure you two could work some magic together.
         | 
         | https://mattstoller.substack.com/
        
         | brookst wrote:
         | I'd like to encourage you to advance the project, but with
         | perhaps less of an ideological "this will prove X" slant.
         | 
         | I think it would be very interesting to explore the boundaries
         | of monopoly, and to look at cases where monopolies are probably
         | a good thing.
         | 
         | For instance, trademarks are a monopoly, but I don't think many
         | of us want any company to be able to co-opt brand names. That
         | seems pretty clear.
         | 
         | Getting less obvious, IP-protected interfaces like GoPro mounts
         | or those dumb Kureig coffee pods. Nobody likes those
         | proprietary interfaces, and they do give monopoly control, but
         | are they economically bad?
         | 
         | And how about console games, where all of the makers subsidize
         | low Hw margins (therefore higher sales) with monopoly control
         | and a cut of game publishing. Would the market be better if
         | that was prohibited?
         | 
         | It's going to be pretty easy to dunk on obviously harmful
         | monopolies. It might be more interesting to explore more
         | nuanced cases.
        
           | phh wrote:
           | > I'd like to encourage you to advance the project, but with
           | perhaps less of an ideological "this will prove X" slant.
           | 
           | Well, my current conclusion with my post is that wording is
           | very very hard :-). What I said is "I want to show small-ish
           | negative impact of a big tech monopoly". It will not prove
           | it's all bad, even though it'll only give examples of where
           | this is bad
           | 
           | > I think it would be very interesting to explore the
           | boundaries of monopoly, and to look at cases where monopolies
           | are probably a good thing.
           | 
           | Let's just say that the current tendency is to think that
           | monopolies are fine, and I'd like to help reverting that. Yes
           | your examples are worst discussing, and I have some of my
           | own.
           | 
           | For instance, I definitely acknowledge that Android's
           | monopoly helped whole unrelated sectors. But I also believe
           | that innovation would be much better served if Android was
           | opensource-in-spirit and maintained by something like the
           | Linux Foundation.
           | 
           | > It's going to be pretty easy to dunk on obviously harmful
           | monopolies.
           | 
           | If it was, they would already have been ruled illegal? In
           | Europe, I can't really name any "obviously harmful
           | monopolies"
        
           | xg15 wrote:
           | I want to ask, would you argue the same about a blog that
           | showed the negative impacts of state-owned vs privatised
           | infrastructure?
        
         | version_five wrote:
         | If you haven't already looked at it, Canada is a great case
         | study and cautionary tale in monopolies and their ills. Look at
         | both our consumer ecosystem (pricing, variety, and service) a
         | well as innovation and industry, and at every turn you will
         | find an economy optimized for monopolies to accumulate money at
         | the expense of regular people.
        
         | omginternets wrote:
         | If the research is good, you would have me as a subscriber. I
         | sincerely hope you decide to do it.
        
       | surume wrote:
       | When was the last time the government enacted anti-trust laws
       | against a large company?
        
       | Barrin92 wrote:
       | When I lived in China and talked to VCs about the volatile
       | regulatory environment and relatively frequent busting of
       | companies one sentence I heard often was always something along
       | the lines of, "sure it's annoying but you know what? For the
       | occassional billionaire that gets toppled there's a hundred
       | millionaires waiting to take their spot, it's just opportunity".
       | 
       | This changed my attitude quite a bit. In particular in the US the
       | debate is often framed from the perspective of the very few
       | individuals adverserly impacted by anti-trust. "If you break X
       | apart, who will want to be the next Y? The answer is quite
       | literally: hundreds of people gleefully waiting to take even a
       | fraction of that market.
       | 
       | If there is a void to fill, someone will always do it. I think of
       | all the measures one can take, anti-trust is one of the least
       | disruptive things to the ecosystem overall, because it not only
       | doesn't diminish, but strengthens market dynamics.
        
       | AwaAwa wrote:
       | It depends on what you like about startups. If it is the
       | potential to make millions (which from my experience is 95% of
       | the startup folk), then they are very much against anti-trust.
       | 
       | If you are a fan of disruption, innovation and advancing the
       | world, you are definitely part of the minority that loves anti-
       | trust.
       | 
       | I am personally aware of a few folk in FAANG, that pull ~1-3M a
       | year currently and are busy touring asia to set up their
       | "startup" with plans to make 10x their current renumeration. I
       | cannot see these as people who 'love anti-trust'.
        
       | nickpp wrote:
       | If you like start-ups you don't take away one of the greatest
       | motivations to create them: the possibility of getting acquired.
       | 
       | If you love competition you don't take away the ability of the
       | biggest players to enter "hard" markets and disrupt large
       | entrenched incumbents.
       | 
       | And if you are in favor of both startups and competition you
       | fight government regulations which corrupt markets, protects
       | incumbents and grants monopolies.
        
       | guillem_lefait wrote:
       | It looks similar to politics. A new candidate have to bring
       | something on the table: new ideas, new faces, new horizon whereas
       | if an in-place politician is interested in being re-elected, he
       | probably wants to show how great he was and keep its base happy
       | enough to have high retention.
       | 
       | Maybe you seek rent when you have non negligible costs to
       | maintain past (think maintenance and tech debt)
        
       | JumpinJack_Cash wrote:
       | Stuff like unnecessary anti-trust is how you end up with a 1500$
       | phone which is completely locked and that you cannot charge while
       | listening to music at the same time.
       | 
       | While we could all be enjoying a Windows phone whose OS could be
       | freely torrented and installed by individual users with Fortune
       | 500 companies subsidizing the whole experience.
        
       | AtlasBarfed wrote:
       | If you were alive in the 1990s, you'd recall the great religion
       | of the free market.
       | 
       | That language has disappeared from the political discourse,
       | because almost all markets are at best cartels, at worst outright
       | monopoly.
       | 
       | Antitrust died with the Microsoft trial, an open and shit case
       | with blatant public statement and evidence galore, and the court
       | system failed us, likely by design.
       | 
       | Best you can hope for now is denial of merger.
        
       | college_physics wrote:
       | Start with changing the name. Anti-trust evokes a negative vibe,
       | pushing back on success, politics of envy etc.
       | 
       | In reality the policies we talk about are the proactive nurturing
       | of a healthy economy. Systems thinking instead of systemic
       | capture. Diversification as a fundamental risk management
       | strategy. Keeping them small to keep them honest. Fostering
       | competition that will unleash creativity. Etc.
       | 
       | I have a strong (but hard to prove) feeling that had the past
       | decades in tech not been so dominated by a tiny number of
       | conglomerates, the contribution of tech to society would have
       | been materially much more impactful.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | How about "pro-competition"?
        
           | college_physics wrote:
           | Competition is still a somewhat negative term. Everybody pays
           | lip service to it but psychologically nobody actually wants
           | it.
           | 
           | "Pro-innovation" maybe?
        
         | philwelch wrote:
         | Big tech conglomerates are not especially popular and I don't
         | think the term "anti-trust" is going to evoke sympathy for
         | them.
        
         | connor11528 wrote:
         | Agree about the naming of antitrust being problematic. It comes
         | from the trust busting days. I prefer talking about building a
         | "decentralized economy" that stands in contrast to an economy
         | controlled by concentrated corporate power
        
         | diordiderot wrote:
         | This is one of those hedonic treadmill words. Whatever you
         | choose will have a bunch of 'non-profit', think tank,
         | 'institute', Murdoch press releases nudging negative
         | connotations.
         | 
         | It's illegal to teach critical reasoning in Texas. Until things
         | like that get fixed no name change will immunize the public
         | from corporate propaganda
        
           | jon_adler wrote:
           | Can you reference what you mean about being illegal to teach
           | critical reasoning in Texas?
        
             | burnished wrote:
             | Oh, looks like it was just the dominant political party
             | that wants that.
             | 
             | https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-
             | sheet/post/texas...
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | > Critical thinking challenges fixed beliefs... hmm..
               | That's exactlt what its for!
        
       | langsoul-com wrote:
       | More legal effort should be put into big companies coming in and
       | crushing start ups.
       | 
       | They usually build something and price it at a loss, because big
       | companies can afford that till start ups go under.
       | 
       | Or unfairly using their services to hinder competiton.
       | 
       | Amazon is a big prepetrator of this. There was a smart oven, sold
       | on Amazon. Amazon was also an investor, who made their own into a
       | basics product at a loss.
        
         | lkrubner wrote:
         | Perhaps this happens on a diversity of time frames and in a
         | diversity of contexts? The French historian Fernand Braudel
         | says that during the 1600s the European merchants in India
         | deliberately bought more than they sold, so that Europe was
         | running a trade deficit with India for all of the 1600s. But
         | offering so much money to India meant that India opened up to
         | European merchants, who were then able to turn the situation
         | around during the 1700s. Once they had been invited into every
         | city and every kingdom in the sub-continent, the European
         | merchants were then able to use their international networks
         | gain an advantage over the local merchants. And then they added
         | even more pressure by hiring local mercenaries to enforce their
         | will with military power, thus beginning the conquest of India.
         | 
         | But the pattern seems to repeat on so many levels, and at so
         | many different time frames: pump in money in a manner that
         | seems generous, so as to gain control of a market. Then use
         | that control to maximize one's own profits.
         | 
         | history from Perspective Of The World:
         | 
         | https://www.amazon.com/Perspective-World-Civilization-Capita...
        
           | fallingknife wrote:
           | A trade deficit is not the same as a loss. It means that the
           | UK ended up with more goods and the Indians ended up with
           | more currency. If the goods are more valuable than the
           | currency, it's still an economic gain for the UK. The US runs
           | a trade deficit every year, and is far from going broke.
        
             | HPsquared wrote:
             | And if you count the currency as an "export", it's not
             | really a deficit at all - just exporting currency.
        
         | franga2000 wrote:
         | Many startups do the same thing to established industries. They
         | burn VC money to "disrupt" a field, then when it's time to make
         | money, they hike prices. But by then, there's no competition
         | left.
        
           | TeMPOraL wrote:
           | I started to use the term "fracking" for this[0], because
           | that's more-less what the likes of Uber, AirBnB, Doordash,
           | etc. do to their respective markets: they pump billions of VC
           | money like it was a fracking fluid, in order to _crack_ the
           | market, pump out all the value, and leave behind a toxic mess
           | for the locals to deal with.
           | 
           | While I agree that startups _can_ disrupt the big monopolies,
           | past Uber, I now find them just as dangerous as big companies
           | to the customers and the societies they live in. Perhaps more
           | so, because big companies don 't have to _disrupt_ anything
           | to extract their rents.
           | 
           | I feel startups are not like they used to be. Or maybe they
           | always were what they were, and I became disillusioned only
           | recently. Either way, today, this is a well-developed process
           | of wealth transfer. In a sense, startups aren't something
           | opposite to big companies - they're _the means_ big companies
           | use to frack an existing market and pump out all value.
           | Startups are an integral part of the market ecosystem now,
           | and from the POV of those at the top, it 's arguably a
           | symbiotic, not parasitic relationship.
           | 
           | --
           | 
           | [0] - I used to call it "strip-mining a market for all its
           | worth", pointing at fast extraction of value with no concerns
           | about sustainability, but I think "fracking" is better, as it
           | also evokes the image of first cracking the market by a
           | sudden, focused infusion of seemingly infinite free money.
        
             | b1zguy wrote:
             | I did the term 'fracking' in this context. I'll start using
             | it.
        
             | pessimizer wrote:
             | It's just dumping to me, like heavily subsidized US corn
             | exports into Mexico after NAFTA.
        
             | spacemadness wrote:
             | I love the turn of perception here that's being
             | acknowledged out loud finally. I have a feeling HN would
             | have buried this sentiment around 8 years ago a lot of
             | folks here were busy fracking as hard as they could. Our
             | capitalist system in America in general feels exceptionally
             | worn out with guards placed at the gates to any real
             | innovative work.
        
             | cudgy wrote:
             | One could also call it a "cash bonfire"
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | I'd wish. If all that happened was some people setting
               | billions on fire, it wouldn't be _that_ bad. The fracking
               | analogy highlights that 1) those billions are used to
               | eviscerate markets and industries, 2) it 's a dirty
               | process leaving a lot of collateral damage, and 3) the
               | parties doing it are actually making a profit, so this
               | process is self-sustaining (as long as there still are
               | markets to frack).
        
               | cudgy wrote:
               | Agreed. There are definitely adverse effects to the
               | markets from these practices.
               | 
               | Could it be that the conglomeration of the startups
               | controlled or at least heavily influenced by a few
               | dominant VC firms essentially creates an oligopoly in the
               | tech startup world? In other words, these startups, which
               | behave like monopolies by razing certain markets with low
               | prices while losing money, are small tentacles of the
               | huge vc firms that are funded by large stockholders of
               | the FAANG oligopolies.
        
             | thefaux wrote:
             | > I feel startups are not like they used to be.
             | 
             | I've had a similar epiphany over the last five years or so.
             | Once you take money from the VCs, you are essentially just
             | an R&D department of the VC collective with perhaps a bit
             | more autonomy than you might have in a BigCo but you are
             | still heavily constrained by the demands of your funders.
             | This is nothing like the romantic two guys in a garage with
             | a great idea taking on the world narrative that we've been
             | fed for decades.
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | That is in theory better.
           | 
           | - the actual innovators are rewarded
           | 
           | - innovators have more skin in the game
           | 
           | - innovators live or die by their execution
           | 
           | Not so with the monopolies.
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | Yeah, but we're now seeing the same problem with
             | "innovation" as we've been suffering from wrt. "profit" for
             | the past several decades - that is, neither "profit" nor
             | "innovation" are a function of being nice and good for the
             | customers, the society or the world. They are at best
             | somewhat aligned - but once all those profitable/innovative
             | and also good ideas were picked, we're left with pursuing
             | profit/innovation that has negative impact on the world.
             | 
             | And so, the main innovation of the most successful startups
             | in the last ~decade was in ways of breaking into and
             | destroying (er, "disrupting") markets that before were just
             | fine - not perfect, but at least _sustainable_.
        
               | echelon wrote:
               | Uber, for all the hate it receives, is significantly
               | better than taxi service.
               | 
               | AirBNB, by the same argument, put offline-only vacation
               | rental services on check.
               | 
               | Neither of these is models is going to go away now. The
               | companies may have to deal with debt, may need to
               | increase unit costs, and may have to conduct layoffs, but
               | they fundamentally changed their markets and will remain
               | the dominant players.
        
           | grantsch wrote:
           | What about 6 months later when competitors arrive?
           | 
           | Not all markets are winner takes all or even close to it
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | You mean competition by more VC subsidized startups?
             | 
             | The competition (or sometimes faux-competition) lasts until
             | investors get bored, then the unsustainable startups slowly
             | go away (often extracting more money from the public on
             | their way out, by means of an IPO), leaving a broken market
             | that needs to be rebuilt, if it's possible at all.
        
       | dalbasal wrote:
       | Anti-establishment startups becoming their parents are instances
       | of a very common pattern.
       | 
       | Gods murder their primordial parents. Republicans overthrow kings
       | and crown a Napoleon. The liberator-opressor complex litters
       | history.
       | 
       | The first step is to notice the cliche and expect it. The
       | phenomenon exists. Next step, tread lightly. Any reason you think
       | up is too specific. Your reason why Microsoft became IBM under
       | Ballmer does not explain why Cronus castrated Uranus or why he
       | wanted to eat baby Zeus.
       | 
       | That said... I think "you are what you eat" is inescapable long
       | term. Wikipedia would not have been wikipedia if it had been a
       | startup, IPOed, etc. If you are a giant software company deeply
       | embedded into locked in customers across all industries... you
       | will have IBM-ish tendencies. Ballmer is Thanos, inevitable.
        
       | vouaobrasil wrote:
       | I think this article's fundamental premise is wrong. To quote:
       | 
       | "The core reason that companies generally, and tech companies
       | more specifically become the very sort of corporation that they
       | once hated and took on with vigor is the need to keep growing,
       | forever."
       | 
       | Small startups and companies don't hate large corporations. If
       | they take on large corporations with vigor, it is only to take on
       | a segment of the market, not the corporation itself. The only
       | purpose of startups is to maximize profit like everyone else is
       | doing, and if they can do that by being bought out or by becoming
       | behemoths, of course they will do it. If anything, people in
       | startups LOVE corporations because when they're bought out, they
       | can retire early with a ton of cash.
       | 
       | The people who dislike large companies and who should favour
       | anti-trust legislation are consumers. But founders of startups?
       | Nah, they operate on the same profit-maximizing principles as the
       | CEOs of big tech. It's all about money.
        
         | ncallaway wrote:
         | The article doesn't say if you _are_ a small startup you should
         | like anti trust law.
         | 
         | It says if you _like_ small startups you should like anti trust
         | laws.
         | 
         | Those are separate claims.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _if you like small startups you should like anti trust
           | laws_
           | 
           | Small start-ups which cannot grow are not start-ups, they're
           | small businesses. This article is, if genuine, an anti-growth
           | pitch. It ensconces the _status quo_.
        
             | vouaobrasil wrote:
             | That is a good point, and I think there is nothing wrong
             | with anti-growth. It should be something we all aspire to.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _there is nothing wrong with anti-growth_
               | 
               | Zero growth means zero-sim games. Pre-modernity. Sucks to
               | be poor if you're born into that world.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | That depends on how you measure growth. If you measure it
               | as total wealth then you are right but if you measure it
               | as wealth per capita then you can grow for a lot longer
               | before you hit a wall if you keep the population under
               | control.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | If aggregate growth is zero, the system is zero sum. Per
               | capita doesn't matter.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | > If aggregate growth is zero, the system is zero sum.
               | 
               | No, it isn't.
               | 
               | > Per capita doesn't matter.
               | 
               | Of course it does. If all of the actors in the system
               | perceive themselves to be better off then it doesn't
               | matter is there is no actual underlying growth. This can
               | happen, for example, through trade. If I have something
               | you want and you have something I want we can create
               | wealth literally out of nothing simply by exchanging
               | those two things.
               | 
               | Or, if you have something I want, and you die and I
               | inherit that thing, then I am better off than I was even
               | though there has been no actual underlying growth.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _> If aggregate growth is zero, the system is zero sum.
               | No, it isn 't._
               | 
               | Yes, by definition.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | Only if you use a vacuous definition of "growth" that
               | fails to distinguish between an actual change in the
               | underlying physical situation and a change in people's
               | perceptions.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _if you use a vacuous definition of "growth" that fails
               | to distinguish between an actual change in the underlying
               | physical situation and a change in people's perceptions_
               | 
               | No, this is fundamental game theory. Independent of what
               | you're measuring, if it isn't growing, the game is zero
               | sum. By definition. Of course if _something else_ is
               | growing _that_ game may not be zero sum.
        
               | DangitBobby wrote:
               | Unless there are fewer people. Or you become more
               | efficient.
        
               | vouaobrasil wrote:
               | Anti-growth doesn't mean zero growth. I meant it more in
               | the sense of being against unbridled technological
               | innovation, which is a lot different than growth in any
               | possible way.
               | 
               | For example, a society could grow in other ways such as
               | being restructured or even using less.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _a society could grow in other ways such as being
               | restructured or even using less_
               | 
               | This is not anti-growth. We generate more GDP per unit of
               | physical resources or energy than before. That is good.
               | That is still growth.
        
           | vouaobrasil wrote:
           | If you read the article, it says specifically (such as in the
           | quotation I provided), that startups themselves should like
           | anti-trust laws.
        
             | ncallaway wrote:
             | The quote you provided just did not say specifically that
             | startups should like anti-trust law.
             | 
             | Is there another place in the article that says it
             | specifically? I didn't see one on a quick second read, but
             | I could've missed it.
             | 
             | For most of the article the focus os on consumer surplus
             | relative to rents sought, so the article seemed pretty
             | clearly to be describing consumer preferences to me
        
       | rakkhi wrote:
       | This is classic putting the process over outcome.
       | 
       | The point of anti trust is not to allow more competition. The
       | point is to stop monopolies that hold customers captive, charging
       | monopoly rents (high prices) and stop innovation.
       | 
       | There is a classic paper by Alan Greenspan on the breakup of
       | Standard Oil [1]. He makes the point that supreme court was
       | wrong. The breakup was just for competitors, not for the benefit
       | of customers. This is the worst of capitalism where big business
       | use the government to fight competitors.
       | 
       | This is the applicable case with today's tech giants. They are
       | providing often a free product to consumers and continue to
       | innovate. The low barriers to entry provided by digital goods and
       | the internet mean that startups have never had it better. The
       | last thing that is needed is government involvement to break up
       | these companies for "anti trust"
       | 
       | [1] http://www.polyconomics.com/ssu/ssu-980612.htm
        
       | tluyben2 wrote:
       | In my experience (so anecdotal) there is a lot of weird reasoning
       | going on by founders, akin to 'I vote for low taxes and against a
       | more socialist system while I am poor as dirt, because one day I
       | will be rich and then I would've shot myself in the foot'. New
       | founders reason it will benefit them when they are huge, while,
       | like in the voting example, that probably will never happen.
        
         | jon_adler wrote:
         | Isn't this built into the American Dream ethos and a product of
         | individualism at the forefront of American culture?
        
       | eru wrote:
       | That's a bit of a weird article: the author seems to argue that
       | monopolies etc are bad, but then makes the mental leap and
       | assumes that just because there's something called 'anti-trust
       | legislation' that it'll help.. The author himself almost grasps
       | the problem:
       | 
       | > [...] Oracle became a company more famous for its legal
       | department than new innovation.
       | 
       | Just like most other regulation 'anti-trust' is just another
       | weapon that those with a big enough legal department can wield
       | against the competition.
       | 
       | We need more competition, not less. Eg we need to allow Wal-Mart
       | to open bank accounts.
        
         | lotsofpulp wrote:
         | >Eg we need to allow Wal-Mart to open bank accounts
         | 
         | Walmart is allowed to offer bank account in the US. They can
         | even buy an existing small bank and spin it up tomorrow.
        
         | routerl wrote:
         | > makes the mental leap and assumes that just because there's
         | something called 'anti-trust legislation' that it'll help
         | 
         | I'm not trying to defend the author.
         | 
         | But there's no "mental leap" here; that's exactly the real-
         | world, observable effect of anti-trust legislation _when it is
         | enforced_. And what we 're seeing now with the FTC is precisely
         | the enforcement, for the first time in decades, of existing
         | anti-trust legislation.
         | 
         | If your point is "legislation isn't enough", you're right, but
         | trivially and uselessly right. Of course the real effect comes
         | from enforcement, just as making murder illegal but then not
         | charging and arresting murderers would, obviously and
         | trivially, not decrease the rate of murder.
        
           | ekianjo wrote:
           | > But there's no "mental leap" here; that's exactly the real-
           | world, observable effect of anti-trust legislation when it is
           | enforced.
           | 
           | The problem is that it's selectively enforced, which makes
           | the legislation dubious at best. There are hundreds of
           | monopolies or quasi-monopolies out there that will never be
           | challenged.
        
             | connor11528 wrote:
             | Agree there needs to be more antitrust enforcement across
             | the board. This is a movement that's growing and takes
             | time. There has been decades of non-existent enforcement
             | and even encouragement of monopolies by the government.
             | It's past time the government break up some of these
             | behemoths
        
             | avianlyric wrote:
             | That's an issue with enforcement, not the legislation
             | itself. There's no way to write legislation that prevents
             | its abuse through selective enforcement. You have to
             | address the abuse itself via strong government
             | accountability.
             | 
             | Not having anti-trust legislation isn't going to increase
             | competition. Say you need more competition, also isn't
             | going to increase competition. Real markets naturally tend
             | towards monopolies, only governments putting a thumb-on-
             | the-scales to prevent monopolies keeps competition alive
             | long term. Something the US seems to have forgotten in the
             | past couple of decades.
        
               | bborud wrote:
               | Observation: there exists a few companies whose market
               | positions are very close to monopolies and where the
               | government isn't doing anything that has actual effect.
               | 
               | I don't think it is an issue with enforcement alone, but
               | with laws that do not sufficiently obligate enforcement.
               | Such laws are not created because politicians are
               | corrupt.
               | 
               | Concluding that regulation dosn't help when what we're
               | observing is non-enforcement is a bit disingenuous. If
               | I'm being charitable.
        
               | avianlyric wrote:
               | If you're talking about the US, then the laws absolutely
               | exist. They were created to break up companies like Bell
               | and Standard Oil, and are extremely effective, _when
               | used_.
               | 
               | But they haven't been used for decades, because
               | regulators have _decided_ not to use them. There are of
               | course many reasons for that, including political
               | pressure and regulatory capture. But to say the laws
               | don't exist, is just wrong. They exist, they just haven't
               | been used for a long time.
               | 
               | Also writing law to _obligate_ enforcement is
               | tautological. All law is meant to be enforced. Who's
               | gonna enforce the enforcement of enforcement laws? And
               | why would they not be subject to same pressures to under-
               | enforce as well?
               | 
               | > Concluding that regulation dosn't help when what we're
               | observing is non-enforcement is a bit disingenuous. If
               | I'm being charitable.
               | 
               | Why do think I came to that conclusion? My comment argues
               | quite the opposite.
        
               | bootsmann wrote:
               | > Real markets naturally tend towards monopolies
               | 
               | Would really like to see a credible source for this
               | statement. There are industries where this happens
               | (natural monopolies which is stuff like raw commodities,
               | as competitors cannot mine at the place where you mine)
               | but I don't think this holds in general at all.
        
             | mrkurt wrote:
             | That's not really a problem. It sounds like a problem, but
             | enforcement has to start somewhere. The FTC is targeting a
             | broad range of markets: https://www.ftc.gov/news-
             | events/news/press-releases
             | 
             | Some of the purpose of antitrust enforcement is to
             | establish a baseline to "warn" other companies. They've
             | only really interfered with a handful of tech acquisitions
             | in the last year, but it sure sounds like everyone doing
             | M&A is being very careful right now.
             | 
             | Sometimes a credible threat of enforcement is enough.
        
         | tbran wrote:
         | From what I gather from reading Matt Stoller's newsletter on
         | monopolies, there has been little meaningful enforcement of
         | antitrust for a very long time.
         | 
         | Did you know there's a huge cheerleading monopoly [0]? There is
         | essentially one company that runs the competitions, sells the
         | uniforms, and sells the equipment. A quote from the article:
         | 
         | > The most interesting aspect of this case are not the legal
         | arrangements, but the fear that I found in interviewing people
         | in the cheer world. Virtually every interview I did was under
         | the condition that the person remain anonymous for fear of
         | retribution. Often people would email me saying that I had no
         | idea the depths of the scandals in the sport.
         | 
         | How about monopolies in port-a-potties and MMA? [1]
         | 
         | The alternative seems to be that you do...nothing? And just let
         | them keep consolidating a market? That can't be good.
         | 
         | Antitrust needs enforcement _so that we can have competition._
         | 
         | [0]: https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/this-is-not-a-
         | democracy-i... [1]: https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/a-land-
         | of-monopolists-fro...
        
         | connor11528 wrote:
         | The purpose of antitrust law and merger review and the FTC in
         | general is to preserve and promote competition. It's the
         | government's legal department against FB, Google, Amazon,
         | Microsoft's legal and lobbying departments
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | > We need more competition, not less.
         | 
         | To posit a real world example, when the predator overkills, the
         | ecosystem dies.
         | 
         | To cite just a handful of examples:
         | 
         | https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/extinction-countdown/wo...
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surplus_killing
         | 
         | Top down pressure on monopolies keeps competition healthy and
         | active. A neverending arms race, which is good for innovation.
         | It prevents lethargy, malinvestment, stagnation, and mere
         | taxation.
        
         | ianstormtaylor wrote:
         | Do you have any sources to back up your claim that anti-trust
         | is something that's most often wielded by big companies against
         | smaller ones?
         | 
         | Because it sounds highly unlikely to me.
         | 
         | The whole point of anti-trust is to provide a check on only the
         | most massive companies that over rent-seek their market and
         | cannibalize competitors, before the startups are able to get
         | off the ground, literally crushing competition.
         | 
         | Anti-trust fosters competition by design.
        
       | einpoklum wrote:
       | > the anti-establishment startup world
       | 
       | A "start-up" is a commercial company, intending to make money by
       | selling products and services, and typically invested with large
       | sums by individual or institutional capitalists.
       | 
       | In other words, it is the opposite of anti-establishment; at
       | most, it might be antagonistic to the established providers of
       | the relevant products or services.
        
       | dalbasal wrote:
       | I don't disagree with anything specifically, but think this is
       | naive.
       | 
       | First, startups are deeply intertwined with monopoly.
       | Financially, a startup is a small chance of huge success. The
       | ultimate win scenario is _becoming_ a monopoly like Microsoft or
       | Amazon did. The next best thing is being acquired by one. If they
       | can 't become monopolies, there's a lot less reason to fund,
       | found or work at a startup.
       | 
       | A startup that plans to participate in a competitive market is
       | low potential. Making great apps isn't a good startup goal. A
       | proper startup goal is to make the app _store._
       | 
       | Do startups, as we know them, even exist without monopolies?
       | 
       | Second... Abstract economics is abstract. Creative destruction
       | doesn't exist in the way that economic theories want it to. It's
       | almost non-existent at the enterprise/monopoly level. How many
       | S&P 500 really become defunct? Creative destruction doesn't exist
       | here unless you really squint. It exists in some places.
       | Restaurants rise and file rapidly. So do barbers and many types
       | of small business. Creative destruction definitely happens to
       | startups. Most die.
       | 
       | Overall though, if take a cold empirical look... Creative
       | destruction is orders of magnitude stronger or weaker, depending
       | on sector. It's effectively a non existent dynamic for Microsoft,
       | Loyds & such. You could argue that creative destruction is out of
       | control in other sectors. The theory though, the theory abstracts
       | all of this away. A firm is a firm. Parts manufacturer, energy
       | supplier, record label or software company. The gradients of
       | reality outweigh the abstract description.
       | 
       | This is true about a lot of economic concepts. "Normal" economics
       | like market determined prices, broadly representing marginal
       | costs in an industry... those are inapplicable concepts to most
       | tech giants. They're not really applicable to government adjacent
       | industries, creative industries, financial industries...
       | 
       | I don't mean that you can't use "normal economics" to describe
       | these industries. I just mean that it's less describing a textile
       | or commodity electronics manufacturer this way.
       | 
       | One striking difference between many monopolies of today and
       | those of the past is the alternative. The alternative to Twitter
       | or Facebook is simply "no Twitter or Facebook." If Toyota stops
       | making cars, either someone else makes more or everyone has less.
       | If facebook stop making facebook... social media is not scarce.
       | People will still consume as much social media as they want.
       | 
       | This isn't like Bell. A court will never have to analyze
       | Facebook's business in order to reorganise it into viable smaller
       | companies.
        
       | LatteLazy wrote:
       | This whole article is such a mess, I don't know where to start...
       | First, all companies try to capture consumer surplus. Second, how
       | are ads "great value for everyone" but ads added later are "rent
       | seeking"!? Third, Anti Trust will change none of this. In fact a
       | company without a reliably monopoly has no option but to capture
       | more surplus and do it sooner. Fourth, OP doesn't know what a
       | zombie company is (one who's debt interest totally consumes it
       | profit, so it exists only because of cheap credit and is not
       | actually economically productive). Op is just throwing more "shit
       | at the wall to see what sticks". Fifth, he seems very confused
       | about corporate "profit" figures. Revenue and costs are fixed,
       | real numbers. Profit is just made up. And since you pay taxes on
       | profit, it's usually much lower than one would expect. Hence why
       | Amazon is insanely large and successful but never actually makes
       | any money. I dislike this, but I also know that as soon as anyone
       | starts talking about a corporations profits they're making things
       | up. Also, if GCP does close (because it's apparently so
       | unprofitable) then that just makes Amazon (AWS) all the more
       | dominant in the industry (so much for anti-trust). Plus how is
       | any "start up" meant to get a few billion USD together to enter
       | that market? And isn't a market with the largest player at 35%
       | and no one making a profit (lol) exactly how competition is meant
       | to look? Not to mention the 1000s of start ups that reply on
       | these services to save them tonnes of cash!?
       | 
       | I am no expert on corporate structures, market structures, anti
       | trust, accounting or economics (or anything else OP apparently is
       | AND is the only one who sees this). But I know enough to know
       | it's complex and there are no easy answers and anyone saying
       | there are is either ignorant or lying.
        
       | samwillis wrote:
       | I agree with much of this, I would like to highlight one thing in
       | particular:
       | 
       | > The bigger a tech company gets the worse it becomes at
       | providing consumer and customer surplus, because it needs to eat
       | that margin (of a sort) to keep growing. Growth demands that tech
       | companies eventually consume that which first engendered them
       | good will.
       | 
       | When that comes to Google, I think they are talking about "eating
       | the margin (of a sort)" of the good experience for end users,
       | people searching. But the reality is they are actually eating the
       | very real margin of the advertisers, their "actual customers".
       | 
       | In the last ten years, through the excessive ingestion of data
       | about the advertisers businesses, Google has sought to expand
       | their bottom line by extracting as much revenue from advertisers
       | as possible. The advertisers margin has become Google's target
       | revenue. If (nearly) all advertising is via Google, their only
       | way to grow that revenue is by extracting more of the advertisers
       | margin.
       | 
       | When you advertise on Google (and FB for that matter) you now
       | have to transmit to Google's algorithm all data about all
       | transactions on your site. This is sold as training the algorithm
       | to enable the targeting of customers. But what you are in fact
       | doing is telling Google everything about your revenue, they know
       | exactly how much you are receiving from all sales. The algorithm
       | is designed to maximise the extraction of the advertisers margin,
       | to squeeze it as much as possible.
       | 
       | This is going to come back and bite them. I believe advertisers
       | are going to fall out of love with Google, if they haven't done
       | so already.
        
         | samwillis wrote:
         | Something I would like to add to my original point, and why I
         | think this is "anti trust". During the last 10 years there has
         | been a proactive move to remove controls and visibility from
         | advertisers, moving towards a black box algorithm. At the same
         | time Google have a (near) monopoly on search advertising. The
         | supposed "auction" between advertisers is closed book and
         | controlled by secret algorithms.
         | 
         | Google are the ultimate beneficiary of the auction, but don't
         | show how it operates, what the other bids were, and how they
         | reached a value for the placement.
         | 
         | On top of that as the advertiser you have been forced to give
         | Google your full revenue numbers in order to play this game.
         | 
         | In my opinion Google needs breaking up, they should not be able
         | to operate as both the marketplace/exchange _and_ the vendor
         | when they have a monopolistic position. The advertising
         | marketplace /exchange should also be regulated in the same way
         | as financial exchanges.
        
           | smoldesu wrote:
           | > they should not be able to operate as both the
           | marketplace/exchange and the vendor
           | 
           | This should just be codified into law, regardless of
           | monopolistic intent. Any vendor that uses their position of
           | power to limit the freedom of their customers should be hit
           | with the full extent of the law - starting with FAANG, and
           | then working our way down from there.
        
         | jimnotgym wrote:
         | I think you are absolutely right. Even on our small ecommerce
         | presence we are seeing it is harder to get a return from Google
         | shopping. A decade ago it was a no brainer, and now it is a
         | money pit. We are seeking instead to expand our influencer
         | involvement.
        
         | klabb3 wrote:
         | Y'all worried about Google. But ads + search/recommendations is
         | a lost battle, that's just the status quo - the devil we
         | already know.
         | 
         | I'm worried more about Apple. Why? Because Apple has been a
         | _counterweight_ to ad-tech. They've been able to champion
         | privacy and UX for actual end users, they have literally been
         | forced to care. But now they're expanding into ad-tech as well,
         | that's terrifying; there is literally only Google left, and
         | they're full-on ad-tech already. So that means mobile (by far
         | the biggest and most universal computing platform worldwide)
         | will have NO customer champions. (Caveat Apple treats customers
         | bad already yadda yadda, but this point still holds). This will
         | be a truly "advertiser first" world.
         | 
         | I'm no antitrust expert, but I can understand a company
         | maximizing its core business (or "do one thing really well"),
         | and I can even respect pure ad-tech. What truly sucks though,
         | is these "expand into every crack of the market" faceless mega-
         | behemoths that these companies all become. (In McKinsey speak,
         | I believe this horror is known as vertical integration.) This
         | _always_ sucks for the consumer.
        
         | l33tman wrote:
         | As a side-note, increasing margins is not the only way to gain
         | revenue, you can increase the market as well. This is what they
         | have been trying all along with all their parallel products. It
         | was very successful with Android, less so with their self-
         | driving car (that could have increased the market by letting
         | drivers consume internet content and ads during the drive
         | instead of driving).
        
         | saghm wrote:
         | I've always found it pretty weird how common the idea is that
         | companies _need_ to keep growing indefinitely, regardless of
         | the size they've reach. If a company is sustainably making a
         | profit (i.e. makes more money than it needs to spend to keep
         | running) and will continue to for the foreseeable future, why
         | do they need to grow their revenue even higher? It seems like
         | the expectation is they need to do this so that the stock price
         | can go up, but if people only buy the stock to sell it when
         | it's worth more due to being larger, what's the actual
         | connection between the stock price and the amount of money the
         | company makes other than everyone just agreeing to pretend
         | there's one? Ostensibly the reason stock is worth anything at
         | all is that it could eventually yield dividends, but there's no
         | reason that a company already making a profit can't just start
         | paying dividends regularly without needing to ever grow any
         | larger.
        
           | refurb wrote:
           | No industry is stagnant. Consumer demand changes, technology
           | changes, competitors changes.
           | 
           | The car industry is a great example. If you're not growing
           | (in the most basic sense - new products, new markets), you're
           | dying.
           | 
           | That's even more true in tech.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | evo wrote:
           | I suspect in reality the increasing compensation of the
           | executive suite in stock, while intended to alleviate the
           | principal agent problem, means that it's substantially more
           | remunerative for leadership to try to goose their stock price
           | by whatever means possible within their tenure than to steer
           | the ship in a growth-agnostic fashion. Doubly so with modern
           | big tech companies where RSU growth can fuel a big chunk of
           | your salary costs for your tech department when your company
           | is on the rise, but scare everyone off when the reverse is
           | true.
        
           | magic_hamster wrote:
           | Some people will say that companies need to grow to increase
           | the bottom line, but my experience is that growth is actually
           | a byproduct that indicates the health of your business rather
           | than the actual goal. Growth is a result of competition, when
           | new markets emerge, when competitors come up with better
           | products, there is an opportunity to increase your market
           | share and take in more revenue. Assuming you don't leave
           | money on the table, it's understandable that you will compete
           | and if you're doing well you will grow.
        
           | ekianjo wrote:
           | growth means constant investment. The day you stop growing,
           | your investment is capped or much more constrained, and it's
           | only a matter of time until your company is over.
        
           | Radim wrote:
           | The standard response is evolutionary:
           | 
           | If you leave profit (growth, resources) on the table, someone
           | else will pick them up and beat you with it.
           | 
           | The supposed analogy is biological. You may choose to check
           | out of the always-do-more-with-less rat race, or even out of
           | existence completely. But that choice will help populate the
           | world with "not your successors". Similar with companies:
           | your _" sustainably making profit"_ premise is incompatible
           | with _" willingly foregoes growth / change"_ - at least in
           | the long term, due to competition.
        
             | wizzwizz4 wrote:
             | > _at least in the long term, due to competition._
             | 
             | Assuming there's always some proportion of people who
             | choose to do otherwise.
             | 
             | Humans are powerful enough now that, if we wanted to, we
             | could _stop this_. It 'd require collaboratively punishing
             | defectors, of course - because some humans _are_ greedy -
             | but until (and if) we meet aliens, we don 't _need_ to live
             | like this, provided we can learn to work together.
             | 
             | It's fortunate, then, that motivated collaboration can
             | produce better results than competition. The collaborators
             | might be able to win the Last Competition.
        
           | kwhitefoot wrote:
           | It seems to me that they need to keep growing because they
           | are in reality pyramid schemes with the people (and
           | investment institutions) at the top wanting ever larger
           | profits. The company gets bigger but the number of people at
           | the apex of the pyramid does not.
        
           | roenxi wrote:
           | Due to inflation, basically. There is an effect like
           | inflation which as far as I know is unnamed, where the credit
           | growth & money creation in the economy hits asset prices and
           | drives them up at a fast rate (eg, gold has been pretending
           | to make real annual returns for the last few decades when we
           | all know it isn't changing in value). A company that is
           | treading water will still be growing in percentage terms
           | year-on-year due to this, so a company that isn't growing is
           | actually failing to position correctly vs the credit in an
           | economy.
           | 
           | If that inflation wasn't part of the picture, companies
           | holding steady would be more acceptable.
           | 
           | Although you wouldn't hear about it in the press; the hot
           | companies are always the ones that are growing. There isn't
           | much to say about companies that just sit there.
        
             | fragmede wrote:
             | Would you mind explaining a bit more than "basically"? The
             | money they take in also inflates, so if everyone who bought
             | one last year buys another one, sales in dollars should
             | increase by the same amount as inflation.
        
               | arka2147483647 wrote:
               | A company may not be able to increase prices as much as
               | inflation eats. Eg, in 6 percent inflation, if you raise
               | prices by 6%, it may result in customers shrinking their
               | purchases by equivalent, or even larger amount. So after
               | the price hike you could be worse off. That is the reason
               | most companies often raise prices slowly in small
               | increments over the months or years.
        
               | roenxi wrote:
               | If we're talking about sales, then sure that should go up
               | by CPI inflation. I thought we were talking about stock
               | prices. Same difference either way, steady state is for
               | economic losers if the money supply is growing
               | exponentially.
               | 
               | Historically "growth" has just been a word for increased
               | energy availability. If it is supposed to measure
               | something else it is a bit meaningless (if some dude
               | plays a game for 2 hours a day, then next year spends 2
               | hours a day playing a "much better" game on a faster
               | XBox, what does growth as a % even mean? If he spends
               | more hours on a game is that growth? These are profoundly
               | silly questions to spend time on). The rough thinking is
               | we should keep pushing for energy growth until we
               | physically can't any more, because that helps poor people
               | not starve which is actually important.
        
               | codethief wrote:
               | > The rough thinking is we should keep pushing for energy
               | growth until we physically can't any more
               | 
               | Not sure that's a good idea, see
               | https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-
               | physicist...
        
               | roenxi wrote:
               | Yeah. In the long run we always lose to entropy too. Life
               | is about what happens before living is no longer possible
               | so we may as well jump as high as we can. At least
               | someone gets to enjoy themselves.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | Folcon wrote:
               | I forgot about this, but the point stands, we still don't
               | use energy that we collect to achieving the outcome he
               | states:
               | 
               | > that helps poor people not starve which is actually
               | important
               | 
               | If we generalise that meeting a minimal bar on the
               | Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, then we're still pretty poor
               | on that front.
               | 
               | Thanks for the link, having read this, it's a valid
               | counterpoint against generally increasing GDP as we
               | currently think of it.
               | 
               | However a lot of discussions at present don't hold to
               | limiting growth to Earth.
               | 
               | What this means however is up for grabs, it could take a
               | very long time to figure out how to practically go
               | further than Earth.
               | 
               | It is however probably worth more consideration than
               | modern economics would give it.
        
               | Folcon wrote:
               | If that's the goal and I agree that's not a bad goal at
               | all, we seem to have decoupled that from the outcomes.
               | 
               | Are energy companies even really doing that much to grow
               | their energy production? Are we seeing much in the way of
               | producers materially investing in increasing their
               | production thus flooding their markets in a race to the
               | bottom? It feels like a lot of these things have stalled
               | out at present, or am I being too cynical?
        
             | luma wrote:
             | Inflation isn't the problem, it's investors. As others have
             | noted, inflation is a wash for most cases. Investors expect
             | regular returns and they sit on your board and they are
             | NEVER satisfied.
             | 
             | When you put the world's greediest individuals in charge of
             | what your business should do next, don't be surprised when
             | the answer is ALWAYS "give us more money".
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | People expect their assets to earn 7%+ per year, both via
               | individual retirement accounts and taxpayer funded
               | defined benefit pensions. If that assumption is not met,
               | then those debts cannot be repaid, which means someone
               | (or everyone) has to take a hit on quality of life. This
               | is politically unpopular because people get disappointed
               | when their expectations are not met.
        
               | luma wrote:
               | Your argument here is that rich people expect to continue
               | getting richer on account of... already being rich.
               | 
               | I will sleep like a baby if their expectations of
               | continued "being rich for no work" doesn't pan out for
               | them.
               | 
               | Get a job, slackers.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | My argument is that a very large proportion of people
               | benefit from borrowing from the future (obviously some
               | more than others). Enough that it is politically
               | unpopular to vote against the government ensuring these
               | returns.
               | 
               | For example, taxes are lower today because of off the
               | books borrowing from the future via these expected future
               | asset valuations, as well as people liking their own
               | 401k/IRA account numbers going up.
        
               | chalst wrote:
               | > My argument is that a very large proportion
               | 
               | What is the actual proportion?
               | 
               | The proportion you argue is neither here nor there.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Whatever the actual proportion is, it is evident over
               | many decades, that it is sufficiently large to ensure the
               | election of leaders that will backstop asset prices.
        
               | wizzwizz4 wrote:
               | > _Whatever the actual proportion is, it is evident over
               | many decades, that it is sufficiently large_
               | 
               | Sufficiently- _powerful_. Don 't confuse the two. In an
               | ideal world, one would be indicative of the other, but
               | history suggests this hasn't been the case. (No comment
               | on the contemporary political situation.)
        
           | perryizgr8 wrote:
           | Population is growing. Your company's target market is a
           | subset of population. Unless your target is a niche that
           | nobody new is joining, then your company must grow just to
           | maintain status quo. If you sell phones and you're not
           | growing, it means you are actually contracting. That's why
           | everyone is crazy behind growth. It means your business is
           | not dying.
        
             | ViViDboarder wrote:
             | Theres that kind of growth, and then the expectation that
             | you grow into every conceivable vertical to expand more
             | rapidly or support stock prices for an otherwise stagnant
             | business.
        
           | jasode wrote:
           | _> If a company is sustainably making a profit (i.e. makes
           | more money than it needs to spend to keep running) and will
           | continue to for the foreseeable future, why do they need to
           | grow their revenue even higher? [...], but there's no reason
           | that a company already making a profit can't just start
           | paying dividends regularly without needing to ever grow any
           | larger._
           | 
           | Your comment is common but it implicitly assumes a stable
           | steady-state in the business landscape. (E.g. phrases such as
           | _" profit _will_ continue to for the foreseeable future,"_)
           | 
           | That type of thinking can work for local businesses (isolated
           | from _global competition_ ) such as a small family
           | restaurant. The owner opens a new restaurant with 10 tables
           | and then maybe the business _modestly grows_ to 15 tables a
           | few years later _and then stops growing_. The owner is able
           | to maintain a steady-state business of repeat patrons at the
           | restaurant for decades with predictable profits. Another
           | example of somewhat predictable profits on a larger scale are
           | legacy oligopoly /monopoly businesses such as railroad
           | companies.
           | 
           | But unlike local restaurants, many businesses have to
           | aggressively _compete in national and global markets_ and if
           | it stops growing, it starts dying. Predictable profits are
           | not guaranteed for the foreseeable future. That 's why giants
           | like Motorola and Nokia got their mobile phone business
           | killed by a (growing) hobbyist computer company named Apple.
           | (Motorola and Nokia are still big but not as big as they once
           | were.) The businesses in hyper-competitive spaces like
           | technology etc are a basically in a Red Queen race:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Queen_hypothesis
           | 
           | E.g. Why can't Blockbluster Video stop worrying about growth
           | and just pay dividends from profits? Because an upstart like
           | Netflix competed away Blockbuster's rental profits. Using
           | hindsight, we can see that assuming Blockbuster could just
           | pay _" dividends regularly and for the foreseeable future"_
           | is flawed. The same broken assumption is happening to Netflix
           | today: _Why can 't Netflix stop worrying about growth and
           | just pay dividends?_ Because Disney+ and HBO MAX are
           | competing away Netflix's profits.
           | 
           | Growing revenue and profits allows adaption to new
           | competitive threats.
           | 
           | It isn't just the investors who want growing businesses. The
           | prospective employees find them desirable too. Many talented
           | graduates of engineering would rather get a job with a
           | growing Apple than a declining Motorola/Nokia.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | acdha wrote:
             | I think you have a valid point about not being _complacent_
             | but all of your examples highlight how hard it is to pick a
             | growth strategy which actually works long-term. Those
             | companies all did what Wall Street analysts wanted but
             | chasing that growth lead to their downfall: Nokia and
             | Motorola cut things like R &D, which is expensive and
             | uncertain, and focused on marketing & expansion. They cut
             | deals with the cell carriers which produced big numbers but
             | turned creative control of their product over to the phone
             | companies. Remember all of the calls for Apple to give
             | Verizon what they wanted to gain access to their customers?
             | 
             | Blockbuster is a different industry but again they were
             | focused on financial growth at the expense of the company.
             | Trying to hit those targets meant they opened marginal
             | locations and it also meant things like reducing "costs"
             | like staffing (but not strategic investments like C-level
             | compensation, of course) which had given them something
             | Netflix couldn't easily match.
        
             | pixelfarmer wrote:
             | > But unlike local restaurants, many businesses have to
             | aggressively compete in national and global markets and if
             | it stops growing, it starts dying.
             | 
             | How is a company dying if it continues to make profit in a
             | changing market?
             | 
             | > Growing revenue and profits allows adaption to new
             | competitive threats.
             | 
             | Adaption to "new competitive threats" is done by humans.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | > _How is a company dying if it continues to make profit
               | in a changing market?_
               | 
               | Because, for example. their market is being steadily
               | taken away by their competitors, and the company doesn't
               | have a way to stop it.
               | 
               | Death takes time, and may not be apparent if you're only
               | looking at profits. The company could be profitable, but
               | less so every year. Or, the company could be growing its
               | profits year by year, but by a smaller factor. In more
               | general terms: your profit may be positive, but if any of
               | its derivatives (first, second, N-th) is negative and you
               | have no way to address it, then you're dying.
               | 
               | >> _Growing revenue and profits allows adaption to new
               | competitive threats._
               | 
               | > _Adaption to "new competitive threats" is done by
               | humans._
               | 
               | Yes, but having more resources lets those humans invent
               | and execute such adaptations better - in the same way
               | it's easier for individuals and households to adapt to
               | changing life circumstances when they have savings and a
               | stable income source, and the more of these they have,
               | the easier it gets.
        
               | jnovek wrote:
               | "Because, for example. their market is being steadily
               | taken away by their competitors, and the company doesn't
               | have a way to stop it."
               | 
               | This is circular reasoning: companies must grow because
               | because otherwise they will have their lunch eaten by
               | other companies who are growing because they must grow.
               | 
               | I realize that this is an absolute basic tenet of
               | capitalism that you're talking about, but this response
               | only explains where we are, not why we're there.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | > _This is circular reasoning_
               | 
               | Yes. Or, in other words, _a feedback loop_.
               | 
               | > _I realize that this is an absolute basic tenet of
               | capitalism that you're talking about, but this response
               | only explains where we are, not why we're there._
               | 
               | It does both: we are here because it's a self-sustaining
               | negative feedback loop. How exactly we got here has been
               | long lost to history, and the specifics don't matter
               | anyway: what matters is, how hard would it be to break
               | out of this state, whether it's worth doing in the first
               | place, and, if we somehow break the cycle, what's there
               | to stop us from immediately falling back into it.
        
               | pixelfarmer wrote:
               | The driving motivator is just greed, nothing else. Growth
               | is not per se required to run a successful company for a
               | long time, that is just plain myth. Nor is growth a
               | guarantee to survive for a long period of time. It may
               | increase the chances to stay afloat, but that highly
               | depends on the circumstances. Also, as soon as you make
               | growth the main motivator to run a company you are
               | opening yourself up to go bust, inherently so.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | > _The driving motivator is just greed, nothing else._
               | 
               | In some cases, sure. But I feel it's also a cop-out -
               | it's easier to assume those business men are just driven
               | by greed, than to look at the messy interplay of
               | motivations and incentives that are the actual driver.
               | 
               | Perhaps that's too cynical a take, but I think it's quite
               | common for small companies to focus on growth because...
               | that's How Business Is Done. Many entrepreneurs are not
               | experts in market economy, nor do they have everything
               | figured out - they follow their intuition, what other
               | entrepreneurs and business press says, etc.
               | 
               | > _Growth is not per se required to run a successful
               | company for a long time, that is just plain myth._
               | 
               | Define "long time". I believe that with competition and
               | sufficiently long time, it's not a myth, but an
               | inevitability.
               | 
               | > _Also, as soon as you make growth the main motivator to
               | run a company you are opening yourself up to go bust,
               | inherently so._
               | 
               | You can _always_ go bust. If you build a non-expanding,
               | sustainable business, it 's only a matter of time before
               | change in the market, or competitors, or just plain
               | increase of costs of living / inflation in general will
               | force you to either grow or give up, as some nonzero
               | amount of growth will be required to just maintain your
               | status quo.
               | 
               | Turning this around, and giving another answer to the
               | "driving motivator" question, you can view it through
               | perspective of observer selection: pretty much all
               | companies pursue growth, because those that didn't are no
               | longer operating.
        
             | doctor_eval wrote:
             | I don't understand your argument. Netflix, Blockbuster,
             | Motorola and Nokia all pursued growth strategies, yet the
             | latter three (at least) ultimately failed to maintain their
             | lead in consumer facing markets. So how does that explain
             | the need for perpetual growth? It doesn't seem connected to
             | your points.
             | 
             | And, in the case of Nokia specifically, maybe they would
             | still be a significant player in the handset market if they
             | had pursued profit by investing R&D into a smaller number
             | of good handsets, rather than their growth strategy that,
             | if memory serves, resulted in the release of one janky new
             | handset every week.
             | 
             | It's not like what Apple did was magic; it was mostly just
             | hard work and vision. Motorola and Nokia lost their
             | business by being unfocussed and stupid, not because they
             | didn't pursue growth.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | It's not the pursuit of growth that matters, but the
               | achievement of growth.
               | 
               | Companies need to grow in places because they will
               | inevitably be shrinking in some places (as customers age
               | or churn out, as competitors come in to compete in
               | segments, as new substitutive goods compete for wallet
               | share).
               | 
               | Even if you want to stay the same size, you will have
               | some amount of growth in your strategy (or you'll fail).
        
               | jasode wrote:
               | _> Netflix, Blockbuster, Motorola and Nokia all pursued
               | growth strategies, yet the latter three (at least)
               | ultimately failed to maintain their lead in consumer
               | facing markets. So how does that explain the need for
               | perpetual growth?_
               | 
               | You're laying out a cause & effect I didn't claim. I'm
               | not saying _" pursue growth guarantees success"_ -- which
               | is unrealistic. A variation of your scenario is like
               | asking, _" Most novelists pursued growth of their
               | audience but most failed so how do those failures explain
               | why novelists want to grow their audiences?"_
               | 
               | The # of failures is a different subject from the
               | _motivation_ for growth.
               | 
               | My reply to gp was to dissect the _flawed premise that
               | profits are predictable and stable_. It 's that flawed
               | assumption that makes it seem like growth is unnecessary.
               | 
               | In other words, even if you want to deliberately create a
               | new company with a "no growth" policy, the outside world
               | has its own freewill and doesn't have to cooperate with
               | your goal. New competitors or changing consumer
               | preferences can sabotage your "no growth" idea and erase
               | the steady-state profits.
        
               | doctor_eval wrote:
               | > A variation of your scenario is like asking, "Most
               | novelists pursued growth of their audience but most
               | failed so how do those failures explain why novelists
               | want to grow their audiences?"
               | 
               | Not at all. You said,
               | 
               | > Why can't Blockbluster Video stop worrying about growth
               | and just pay dividends from profits? Because an upstart
               | like Netflix competed away Blockbuster's rental profits
               | 
               | And I simply don't see the connection.
               | 
               | Blockbuster could have done any number of things to
               | prevent their demise but pursuing a growth strategy in
               | the face of an obvious threat to their business was not
               | one of them. And their size - perhaps achieved from a
               | growth strategy - did not protect them. It's possible
               | that their size, and the blandness that was necessary to
               | get there - actually made them more vulnerable. (We used
               | to call it "Lacklustre Video")
               | 
               | The same for Nokia and Motorola. It's a strategy of crap
               | products built en masse to drive growth into every
               | segment which makes a company vulnerable.
               | 
               | So I think novelists make for a poor analogy. And I think
               | there are plenty of companies that pursue a sustainable
               | profit strategy rather than a growth strategy.
               | 
               | It's just that you don't hear about them because they
               | aren't screaming for your business.
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | Apple's iPhone launch included the vertical monopoly that
               | was their magic. It addressed consumer needs like no
               | other and everyone else was left playing catch-up.
        
               | arka2147483647 wrote:
               | Nokia/Motorola/etc tried to compete and research but
               | ultimately failed. This is not a counterargument, but
               | rather underlines the cutthroat nature of international
               | competition.
               | 
               | > And, in the case of Nokia specifically, maybe they
               | would still be a significant player in the handset market
               | if they had pursued profit by investing R&D into a
               | smaller number of good handsets,
               | 
               | They picked the wrong horse, as the saying goes. At the
               | time it was not so obvious which thing was going to win.
        
             | pclmulqdq wrote:
             | There are several counterexamples to this idea, including
             | companies 300+ years old, where a company does just fine
             | without "competitive" expansion of its business, and where
             | no competitors show up to eat their lunch.
             | 
             | The poster child for this model, I think, is Zildjian: the
             | biggest global maker of cymbals. They have been doing it
             | for hundreds of years, never expanded outside of cymbals,
             | and continue to do well.
             | 
             | Companies run on this expansionist idea must keep expanding
             | to avoid death, however, because they operate at
             | unsustainable levels of expenses otherwise, and they hire
             | managers on the premise of making bold moves to get
             | promotions.
             | 
             | This "grow or die" mentality is entirely a cultural
             | phenomenon of modern western companies, and they can
             | absolutely opt out of it.
        
               | jasode wrote:
               | _> There are several counterexamples to this idea, [...]
               | where no competitors show up to eat their lunch._
               | 
               | Yes, I understand that and already provided several
               | counterexamples. (Local restaurants and legacy
               | railroads.)
               | 
               |  _> The poster child for this model, I think, is
               | Zildjian: the biggest global maker of cymbals. They have
               | been doing it for hundreds of years, never expanded
               | outside of cymbals, _
               | 
               | I actually own a bunch of Zildjian cymbals and saw
               | several documentaries about the brothers' split into
               | Zildjian and Sabian. In any case, Zildjian _did expand_
               | into other products outside of cymbals. From wikipedia:
               | 
               | - _In 2010, Zildjian acquired the Vic Firth Company and
               | in 2018 acquired the Mike Balter Mallet company expanding
               | the company 's product offerings to include a full range
               | of drumsticks and percussion mallets._
               | 
               | Zildjian also sells _electronics_ like earphones[1]. The
               | daughters that inherited Zildjian wants the company to
               | grow. The growth has not been as fast as a tech startup
               | but they do want it to grow.
               | 
               | But even without _expanding product categories_ , the
               | company can also expand _markets to sell to_. That was
               | one of the motivations of Zildjian _expanding their
               | manufacturing into Canada_ as that export location
               | allowed them to sell cheaper cymbals to Europe.
               | 
               |  _> This "grow or die" mentality is entirely a cultural
               | phenomenon of modern western companies, and they can
               | absolutely opt out of it._
               | 
               | Not just Western companies. Also East Asia companies in
               | Japan like Canon, Sony, Toyota wanted growth. Korea
               | companies like Samsung and LG. And Africa companies in
               | Ethiopia and Nigeria want to grow too.
               | 
               | But I do agree with the point you were trying to make: if
               | you happen to pick a business domain that doesn't have
               | cutthroat competition, there's less pressure to grow to
               | avoid dying.
               | 
               | RIM Blackberry didn't get into the drums cymbals business
               | (slower moving competition of hammering round sheets of
               | metal) but the phones business (fast iteration
               | competition of electronics). They grew until the 2007
               | Apple iPhone made their keyboard phones and 2-way pagers
               | mostly obsolete.
               | 
               | If you're an entrepreneur who believes the "growth
               | treadmill" is insane and stupid, you need to pick the
               | type of business that aligns with that philosophy!
               | 
               | [1]
               | https://www.google.com/search?q=zildjian+in+ear+monitors
        
           | OtomotO wrote:
           | It's a dogma, the dogma of neocapitalism... Endless growth.
           | 
           | Sort of like a malign tumor, which in the end kills the host
           | and itself.
           | 
           | It's just propaganda. Nothing grows endlessly, apart maybe
           | from human greed and idiocy.
           | 
           | Also some growth is "mandatory" because of inflation. If you
           | don't grow your profits but there is inflation, your profits
           | in reality shrink.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | As those things usually go, this is caused by government
           | policy (and do not happen on the entire world).
           | 
           | The US in particular greatly disincentive dividends, putting
           | larger taxes over them than over any other form of profit
           | accumulation.
        
           | mijamo wrote:
           | Yo be clear not all companies are expected to grow. But
           | growth is the main characteristic of a certain kind of
           | companies, and the reason why their stock can have very high
           | PE ratio, because shareholders expect to get return in the
           | stock going up instead of dividends. You have plenty of vale
           | companies that pay dividends and do not grow very much,
           | sustaining a healthy business on their market.
           | 
           | But the transition between growth and value is a bit tough.
           | You need to stop hiring like crazy, intern promotions
           | suddenly go more stale as a result, stock compensation is
           | hurt a lot so your employees might not be super happy with
           | it, the story is also appealing to a completely different
           | kind of people, and your stock goes down a lot at first, all
           | your financing suddenly gets a lot more expensive etc.
           | 
           | It is possible that we are witnessing that transition in some
           | of the tech companies right now, as the symptoms match, but
           | it really is too early to tell.
        
         | fallingknife wrote:
         | Advertisers have no choice but to go where the eyeballs are. So
         | I don't see how they could possibly drop Google unless Google
         | loses those eyeballs. If they could, then Google wouldn't be so
         | exploitative.
        
           | lazyasciiart wrote:
           | Depends how you define eyeballs. If google traffic actually
           | created a loss for them, that traffic would not be worth
           | having.
        
         | kandu wrote:
         | In principle, the advertisers could buy Google shares and
         | influence the company's policy towards an equilibrium that is
         | more favourable to advertisers. If a natural monopoly is a
         | public company, the entities that depend on this company could
         | buy shares and bend the company's actions towards their
         | interests. Is this happening? If not, why not?
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | So... a dollar, a vote?
           | 
           | That doesn't make for a great democratic rule.
        
           | VBprogrammer wrote:
           | Google is a trillion dollar company. You'd need to have
           | billions of dollars in Google stock before you opinion even
           | mattered around the board room. The majority of the companies
           | advertising on Google couldn't even dream of that and for
           | those that could it's not exactly clear that this would be a
           | wise investment.
        
             | pclmulqdq wrote:
             | Google also has dual-class shares. If you aren't Larry or
             | Sergei, your opinion won't matter much even if you own
             | several hundred billion of the stock.
        
         | ilyt wrote:
         | And it's same on the other side of the pipe, content creators
         | on YT are getting worse and worse deal every year, that's why
         | everyone nowadays runs sponsorships and patreon on it
        
       | piyush_soni wrote:
       | I never understood anti-trust. Isn't it punishing a legitimate
       | company for working their ass off for years/decades and growing
       | too big for people's liking? It's my OS, I don't want to put your
       | app on it, I want to put mine. What's the problem? It's actually
       | against free market. I understand it from a socialist point of
       | view though.
       | 
       | Edit: The comments so far have given me some perspective. It was
       | a genuine question to understand.
        
         | theharrychen wrote:
         | The purpose of anti-trust is to prevent firms from exercising
         | market power that leads to predatory pricing and anti-
         | competitive behaviors that lower social surplus and innovation.
         | There's a whole subfield of economics called Industrial
         | Organization that tackles this.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | hahaxdxd123 wrote:
         | > It's actually against free market.
         | 
         | If you read a lot of the original liberal thought behind the
         | "free market", it actually spells out something probably more
         | aptly named "competitive market". A "free" as in "you can do
         | whatever you want" market does not provide the same theoretical
         | benefits as a competitive market (e.g. you can make
         | models/derive theorems that the long run profits go to 0 due to
         | competition, etc.)
         | 
         | Even the wikipedia page for "Free market" today includes:
         | 
         | "For classical economists such as Adam Smith, the term free
         | market refers to a market free from all forms of economic
         | privilege, monopolies and artificial scarcities.[2]"
         | 
         | I believe that interpretation can come from the following line
         | in Wealth of Nations:
         | 
         | "People of the same trade seldom meet together even for
         | merriment or diversion, but the conversation ends in a
         | conspiracy against the publick [sic], or in some contrivance to
         | raise prices."
         | 
         | > I understand it from a socialist point of view though.
         | 
         | I hope this provides further understanding from a liberal-
         | capitalist point of view :)
        
         | IanCal wrote:
         | One key thing I'd say is it's about using your power that you
         | rightfully gained in one sphere to _unfairly_ win in another.
         | 
         | I've spent years working towards having this motorbike why
         | can't I use it in the Tour de France?
         | 
         | Google got into trouble for doing this with their terrible
         | shopping thing. They didn't compete on having the best shopping
         | tool they just forced theirs to the top knowing it was worse.
         | This is bad for consumers as the assumption is that things get
         | better as companies compete.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Did you read the article?
        
         | usrbinbash wrote:
         | > It's actually against free market.
         | 
         | Precisely. And that is a good thing.
         | 
         | Why do we like the free market? Because it has proven to be
         | able to drive innovation, increase standard of living, and make
         | life, in general, better.
         | 
         | But the free market also has problems, that need fixing. If
         | these problems remain unfixed, they grow, and choke the things
         | we like about the free market out of it.
         | 
         | The concentration of power and control in a few entities, and
         | the subsequent effects these entities have on the rest of the
         | market is one of these problems. And anti-trust exists
         | precisely to reset this problem to a manageable state from time
         | to time.
         | 
         | The free market is a great system. It's fair to say that it's
         | currently the best system we know how to run the economic side
         | of a society.
         | 
         | But it's also not a perfect system, and, like every imperfect
         | system, it cannot be left running unchecked. Even the best
         | server requires maintenance from time to time. If it isn't
         | done, it stops working at some point.
        
           | SettembreNero wrote:
           | > Why do we like the free market? Because it has proven to be
           | able to drive innovation, increase standard of living, and
           | make life, in general, better.
           | 
           | [citation needed], especially in environmental terms and for
           | countries outside the first world
        
             | diegoholiveira wrote:
             | Countries outside the first world usually doesn't have a
             | free market system in place.
        
         | hagbarth wrote:
         | It's about making the market work for consumers. Monopolies and
         | the like sort of break the market dynamic by removing
         | competition. It's got nothing to do with socialism.
        
       | xondono wrote:
       | I think the author is unaware that "anti-trust" has been used for
       | decades as a bargaining chip, where big companies trade gestures
       | for barriers of entry with the political establishment.
       | 
       | The only reason the internet has been the biggest growth sector
       | for more than 2 decades now is that it has been new enough to be
       | less regulated than other industries, but as the giants (Google,
       | Facebook,...) both settle new cases and push for self serving
       | regulations, the barriers grow tall again, and innovation will
       | stop.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | jokethrowaway wrote:
       | A company will grow up to the point the market needs it to grow.
       | In a pure capitalist market without government I would expect to
       | see a few large players where replicating the technology is
       | really hard and then a bunch of large companies being killed by
       | newer competitors.
       | 
       | We kind of see these mechanics in our market but nowhere close to
       | enough.
       | 
       | The distortion in our model of crony capitalism is that our
       | centralised government gives unfair advantage to existing
       | corporations in the form of bailouts (hey, too big to fail!) and
       | regulations (easy to implement when you're Amazon, a business
       | killer when you're small).
       | 
       | I would love to build a fintech startup and do what banks are
       | doing for cheaper, but regulations in the banking sector make it
       | a very expensive endeavour.
       | 
       | Anti trust is not the solution, it's merely a small patch which
       | gets applied incoherently and used as a weapon by governments to
       | steal more money from massive companies.
       | 
       | I argue that no regulations would have a better effect on
       | disrupting large monopolies, once there is enough money to be
       | made with little risk.
        
       | judge2020 wrote:
       | And yet, most people love the stability of existing systems.
       | Trying something new is betting with your time: if the startup
       | goes defunct in x years, you've created work for yourself to
       | migrate to a competitor, and that's a big risk to take if you're
       | a medium or large business evaluating a B2B product that maybe
       | only has Series B funding (and is dependent on massive growth to
       | survive without being sold off to some investment firm due to
       | pressure from their existing investors).
        
         | makeitdouble wrote:
         | From being on both sides of the fence (providing B2B software
         | as a startup, and dealing with small businesses as a client),
         | smaller entities will be expected to adapt to the bigger fish.
         | 
         | Startups will bring translation layers to fit inside an
         | existing system, and as a big client you can often send them
         | the exact interface they need to adhere to and they'll deal
         | with it.
         | 
         | In that sense, the switching cost can be minimal (and you might
         | keep your existing system running in parrallel), and if you're
         | big enough you'll have the option to outright buy the smaller
         | business if it were to flail.
         | 
         | It's more complicated I think on the B2C side, where you have
         | to buy more trust and establish a brand for people to give your
         | their data and/or money.
        
         | kennywinker wrote:
         | With decent anti-trust, we would have many many more stable
         | mid-size companies. I.e. startups that FAANG snapped up on
         | their ascendence to stability, that would now be successful in
         | their own right.
         | 
         | Some examples to rattle off a few household names: instagram,
         | whatsapp, youtube, tumblr, android, beats, audible.
        
           | scarface74 wrote:
           | Instagram became big because of Facebook's cross promotion
           | and adTech.
           | 
           | YouTube had huge storage and bandwidth costs and was about to
           | be sued out of existence.
           | 
           | Tumblr wasn't exactly doing great before being bought by
           | Yahoo and Yahoo wasn't exactly a monopoly when it acquired
           | Tumblr and its current owner is definitely not that big.
           | 
           | How do you think Android would have succeeded when better
           | funded companies like Microsoft, RIM and Palm failed to make
           | a dent?
           | 
           | Beats was already profitable before being acquired by Apple.
           | No one can credible claim that Apple has a "monopoly" on
           | headphones or in streaming music.
        
             | dima_vm wrote:
             | Instagram might not became that big, but it definitely was
             | on track to become somewhat big, that's why Facebook bought
             | it, in fear of competition.
             | 
             | Same, Youtube might go down, but the idea was out of the
             | box now, someone else would do that. Technology (ContentID)
             | was there as well. As a consumer, I don't mind if it'd be
             | called differently done by different team. It might have
             | been better or worse of course.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | How was Instagram going to become _profitable_?
               | 
               | YouTube's issue wasn't just being sued, the storage and
               | bandwidth costs are huge and YouTube was losing billions.
               | Rumors are that YouTube is still not profitable.
        
               | dima_vm wrote:
               | "We run ads, senator." (c) Mark
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | YouTube took years and only became slightly profitable
               | after burning through billions of Google's money and then
               | only by piggybacking off of Google's existing
               | infrastructure and ad network.
        
               | mrkurt wrote:
               | YouTube is a tremendous antitrust fail. The very
               | definition of price dumping.
               | 
               | It could have been profitable earlier, but it would have
               | been much smaller and faced stiff competition. That isn't
               | what Google needed from it.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | How could YouTube be profitable earlier as it's bandwidth
               | and storage costs grew?
               | 
               | Is every company that is not immediately producing a
               | profitable product "price dumping" - including every
               | startup YC funds?
        
               | mrkurt wrote:
               | Price dumping is a bigger deal when it's a company in a
               | monopoly position doing it. It's not necessarily anti
               | competitive to sell at below cost.
               | 
               | YouTube could have been profitable by charging for their
               | services. Like Vimeo. They could not have been profitable
               | with ads. Google couldn't afford for YouTube to be small,
               | they needed a near monopoly on internet video to extend
               | their ad empire.
        
               | jasode wrote:
               | _> YouTube could have been profitable by charging for
               | their services. Like Vimeo._
               | 
               | Fyi, Vimeo was a money-losing business when IAC bought it
               | 2006 and is still unprofitable after IAC spun it out as a
               | public company in May 2021.
               | 
               | So it's not convincing that Youtube could have stayed
               | independent and become profitable by charging for videos.
               | Before the Google acquisition, Youtube was also
               | threatened by the billion dollar Viacom lawsuit. The
               | young Youtube startup didn't have the money to fight
               | expensive legal battles like that and could realistically
               | lose in court like Napster lost against the RIAA lawsuit.
               | 
               | Youtube getting acquired by Google got the video startup
               | out of several fires: (1) switch to Google's datacenter
               | infrastructure which reduces operating costs (2) tap into
               | Google's extensive ad network to monetize (3) use
               | Google's army of lawyers to settle with Viacom by
               | convincing them that the ContentID fingerprinting
               | algorithm will filter out piracy.
        
               | mrkurt wrote:
               | Oh you're right.YouTube probably couldn't have been
               | profitable. They could have gone out of business,
               | however.
               | 
               | Vimeo has reasonable unit margins, though, and has since
               | the early days.
               | 
               | What I'm mostly irked about is that there was no room for
               | experimentation. YouTube was impossible to compete with.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | "Unit margins" mean about as much as Ubers made up metric
               | where it is profitable as long as you ignore a dozen
               | expenses .
        
               | kennywinker wrote:
               | Ads or a subscription service. Not that complicated. With
               | that many eyeballs you don't need to be a genius to make
               | money off it.
        
               | Tanoc wrote:
               | Google over-leveraged advertising on Youtube however.
               | Most Youtube viewers use an adblocker on PC, and adblock
               | is becoming more common on Android with each passing
               | month. All because AdSense went with a more lax policy of
               | moderation for ads after the 2017 fallout caused by Matt
               | Watson scared away big advertisers like Frito-Lay and
               | Toyota. The result was all ads were either falsely
               | advertised Android games, multi-level marketing scams, or
               | even nakedly racist political ads in the runup to the
               | 2018 congressional elections. Adblock rates exploded,
               | cutting Youtube's income and causing a panic response of
               | running even more ads and locking users into seeing them.
               | To this day Youtube still has a lax vetting policy for
               | advertising partners, and actively hateful, harmful, or
               | overtly false ads stay up for weeks until enough users
               | report them.
               | 
               | As for subscriptions... Well, they tried that with
               | Youtube Red. And then Youtube Premium. And then Youtube
               | Music. Every time people turned it down, because the
               | benefits weren't worth the cost each month considering
               | all the features touted could be found legally for free
               | elsewhere. And when video creators outed Red by showing
               | they'd get a paltry amount of that revenue, despite
               | Youtube saying the money from subscriptions would be used
               | to pay them, even more of the viewing audience turned
               | against it.
               | 
               | When you're in the uniquely precarious position of
               | hosting high cost user-generated content, it's very easy
               | for outside forces to break you over their knee and send
               | you into a death spiral.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | How are ad supported companies outside of Google and
               | Facebook doing today?
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | Instagram c. 2012 was just burning VC money and had no
               | plans for how it could be profitable. It wasn't until
               | Facebook bought them that there was some thought about
               | how to make it profitable.
               | 
               | https://www.fastcompany.com/3019351/will-instagrams-
               | vogue-li...
               | 
               | > On Thursday, the company announced that it would begin
               | introducing photo and video advertisements on the
               | service, its first attempt to generate revenue since
               | Facebook acquired the startup for $1 billion.
               | 
               | > ...
               | 
               | > It's a sentiment Systrom has repeated to me for years-
               | and an idea that many revenue-free startups have begun
               | parroting. For entrepreneurs without a business model,
               | it's become almost fashionable to declare that they're
               | simply creating a new model altogether: Whatever it is-by
               | god-won't involve pesky traditional ads. No! The ads
               | won't be disruptive or annoying-they'll be wanted and
               | loved! (I'm waiting for the call, SnapChat.) But when
               | push comes to shove, more often than not, the ads turn
               | out to be nothing more than, well, traditional
               | advertisements. See: any Promoted Tweets.
               | 
               | Yes, it was on track to be something big... but it wasn't
               | on track to be able to make any money and was more likely
               | to flounder once it ran out of VC interest and get bought
               | for cheap by Twitter.
               | 
               | https://www.businessofapps.com/data/instagram-statistics/
               | 
               | There's a reason that chart only starts listing revenue
               | in 2015.
               | 
               | While Instagram might have been keeping Zuckerberg up at
               | night with nightmares - one shouldn't pretend that it had
               | a path to making money and being able to keep running.
        
               | passwordoops wrote:
               | And in a world where competition is allowed to see its
               | course, Instagram would have disappeared. And further
               | down the line, Facebook's poor decisions would have
               | spelled oblivion for them too.
               | 
               | It also means the 2010s may have perhaps seen investors
               | print billions into businesses that actually matter and
               | deliver real innovation
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Or it just would have copied Instagram's feature set like
               | it's done dozens of times with other competitors.
               | 
               | Or it would have just hired all of its founders to
               | recreate it.
               | 
               | Do you now also want to stop acquihires?
        
               | fallingknife wrote:
               | If Instagram would have disappeared on its own, Facebook
               | would have just built it in house. They spent $1 billion
               | on it because it was cheaper to do that than to start
               | from scratch. And how could anti-trust possibly stop
               | that?
        
               | mrkurt wrote:
               | The point of antitrust is to encourage that. That's
               | competition. We want Facebook to build net new things.
               | 
               | Facebook's not all that good at building new things,
               | though. Most big companies aren't. Partially because they
               | don't need to be.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | And how would that be a better outcome for the startups?
               | 
               | If you haven't noticed, Microsoft and Apple have both
               | been around for over four decades "creating new things".
        
               | mrkurt wrote:
               | I don't mind startups failing. I would prefer that
               | startups fail. I would prefer big companies fail. It's
               | healthy for companies to die.
               | 
               | Apple and Amazon are more of a vertical integration
               | problem. They expand their market power by monopolizing
               | the vertical supply chain.
               | 
               | Microsoft acquires companies to increase their market
               | power. Skype, GitHub, LinkedIn, now Activision.
        
               | fallingknife wrote:
               | Monopolizing a vertical supply chain isn't even a concept
               | that makes sense. The point is that with a monopoly
               | customers have only one purchasing option. This condition
               | does not exist when a company integrates vertically.
        
               | mrkurt wrote:
               | You're arguing the semantics of a monopoly, but you
               | should just mentally replace the word "monopoly" with
               | "market power".
               | 
               | When Apple buys components from a vendor, they have less
               | market power. When they build their own components, they
               | have more market power.
               | 
               | Both Apple and Amazon shipped their own ARM chips. This
               | increased their market power. Because they're the only
               | companies with access to those chips. Meanwhile,
               | independent ARM vendors go out of business about once
               | every 3 months because the biggest companies using ARM
               | aren't part of their addressable market. Which means
               | small companies have limited access to ARM CPUs.
               | 
               | When Amazon builds their own delivery company, they
               | increase their market power. When they buy from Fedex and
               | UPS, they decrease their market power. And, when they do
               | their own deliveries, they limit competitors market
               | power.
               | 
               | You can be fine with all of this. Those of us who are
               | interested in competitive markets worry about it a lot.
               | You don't have to be worried about competitive markets,
               | though. It's totally valid to not think increased
               | competition is a good thing.
               | 
               | There is a lot of nuance here. If you're stuck on the
               | word monopoly, I don't think you're going to really hear
               | the things antitrust folks have to say.
        
               | fallingknife wrote:
               | Vertical integration doesn't decrease competition, it
               | increases it. If there are N companies in a market, and a
               | company that purchases from one decides to vertically
               | integrate.and enter the market, now there are N+1.
        
               | mrkurt wrote:
               | Only if they sell into the market.
               | 
               | Almost no one who vertically integrates competes in the
               | market they just shook. You can't get Amazon to ship
               | things for you, so they don't compete with Fedex and UPS.
               | You can't by an M1 chip from Apple.
               | 
               | Vertical integration is all about shrinking markets, not
               | adding to them.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | > You're arguing the semantics of a monopoly,
               | 
               | Yes "words mean things".
               | 
               | > When Apple buys components from a vendor, they have
               | less market power. When they build their own components,
               | they have more market power
               | 
               | So now you're saying a company shouldn't be allowed to
               | build and design their own components? Doesn't it help
               | competition that Apple, Microsoft, Google, Qualcomm, and
               | MediaTek among others are creating and modifying their
               | own processors?
               | 
               | > Which means small companies have limited access to ARM
               | CPUs.
               | 
               | Any company can buy an ARM processor from Qualcomm and
               | MediaTek. Have you looked at all of the phone
               | manufacturers who sell in China and India and even the
               | US?
               | 
               | > Those of us who are interested in competitive markets
               | worry about it a lot. You don't have to be worried about
               | competitive markets, though. It's totally valid to not
               | think increased competition is a good thing.
               | 
               | Every market you mentioned has a competitor that third
               | parties can go to - ARM chips, delivery companies etc.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Yes because Skype and GitHub are market leaders and it's
               | really hard to change your git origin.
               | 
               | How is Apple "monopolizing the vertical supply chain"
               | while having only 13% of the global cell phone market?
        
               | mrkurt wrote:
               | Ok, well, we're not talking about the same stuff here so
               | I'm not sure it's worth going back and forth. We can just
               | continue to be on different sides of the antitrust issue/
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | One could argue that they are purchasing companies to
               | incorporate them into the company's product directly
               | rather than relying on a 3rd party vendor to supply it.
               | 
               | Two examples: AuthenTech and Kiva
               | 
               | https://www.fromscratchradio.org/show/scott-moody
               | 
               | https://www.fromscratchradio.org/show/mick-mountz
               | 
               | The argument (I believe) is for leaving those companies
               | as stand alone and having Apple and Amazon rely upon them
               | _not_ going bankrupt or getting purchased by some other
               | competitor and disrupting their own company.
               | 
               | You've seen that happen before - BigCo is using a 3rd
               | party vendor, someone buys it and then turns around and
               | starts charging BigCo lots of money.
               | 
               | To prevent that from happening, BigCo should have bought
               | the company when it started using it (if possible) to
               | prevent that disruption in its systems, products, or
               | services.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | And because Apple bought Authentec, it cornered the
               | market on fingerprint base authentication...oh wait.
        
               | mrkurt wrote:
               | You're not really making coherent points here. No one is
               | arguing that vertical monopolization corners a market on
               | components.
               | 
               | When Apple bought Authentec, they increased their market
               | power and reduced the market power of competitors.
               | 
               | As an independent company, Authentec could sell to Apple
               | AND Apple's competitors. Apple obviously won't sell
               | components to their competitors. They were incentivized
               | to purchase Authentect to restrict competition.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | So no one is arguing that a "vertical monopoly" corners
               | the market. In that case, what are they monopolizing?
               | 
               | > When Apple bought Authentec, they increased their
               | market power and reduced the market power of competitors.
               | 
               | The existence proof is that there were fingerprint
               | authentication methods before and after the acquisition.
               | Who exactly did they hurt?
               | 
               | > As an independent company, Authentec could sell to
               | Apple AND Apple's competitors. Apple obviously won't sell
               | components to their competitors. They were incentivized
               | to purchase Authentect to restrict competition.
               | 
               | Well if that was the purpose - to prevent competitors
               | from having fingerprint sensors - they did a horrible
               | job.
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | In that model, would it be reasonable for another agency
               | (company, PE, billionaire with an axe to grind) to come
               | along and buy them and then raise the prices to rent seek
               | on Apple?
               | 
               | You appear to be arguing that larger companies shouldn't
               | be able to secure their supply chain and instead be
               | forced to follow the whims of the market as companies go
               | in and out of business forcing the larger company to
               | either (a) build it in house or (b) keep redesigning
               | every time something changes.
        
               | mrkurt wrote:
               | One thing about antitrust is that it's a set of
               | restrictions only applies to companies with a certain
               | amount of market power. It's not a set of rules that are
               | designed to be fair for everyone.
               | 
               | So, yes, some other company could conceivably do
               | something to diminish Apple's market power and not run
               | afoul of antitrust. And I think that's ok?
               | 
               | Companies with too much market power should not be able
               | to vertically integrate to increase their market power.
               | They definitely should not be able to do this via M&A.
               | 
               | This is, again, not meant to be "fair". Because there's
               | no such thing. Companies of a certain size are inherently
               | unfair competition, antitrust rules just limit how they
               | can flex.
        
               | wizzwizz4 wrote:
               | > _Yes because Skype and GitHub are market leaders and
               | it's really hard to change your git origin._
               | 
               | Yes, for exactly those reasons. Have you actually _tried_
               | getting everyone on a team to change their git origin?
               | And that 's before mentioning the other stuff you have to
               | migrate: the issue tracker, the _CI pipeline_ ...
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Yes,
               | 
               | You tell everyone to change the git set-origin.
               | 
               | Hardly anyone uses GitHub's rudimentary issue tracker and
               | reconfiguring a CI/CD pipeline is child's play unless you
               | use GitHub actions and very few if any large companies
               | use GitHub actions.
        
               | salawat wrote:
               | They really haven't. They've been acquiring startups,
               | digesting and rebranding said startups innovations with
               | an in house version, and (arguably innovating) in finding
               | ways to plaster a transaction layer into solved problems
               | that previously lacked a recurring revenue compatible
               | transaction framework.
               | 
               | In short, subsidizing themselves by abandoning one time
               | purchasable software, and replacing it with either ad
               | serving or subscription based versions.
        
             | kennywinker wrote:
             | Traditional anti-trust (the kind we haven't seen for at
             | least 30 years now) is about preventing companies from
             | creating monopolies - which requires proactive steps BEFORE
             | they become a monopoly not when they go to purchase their
             | last competitor.
             | 
             | That said, afaik the beats acquisition wasn't about
             | headphones as much as the streaming service... digital
             | music is a market that apple was the largest player in for
             | a long time (may still be idk?).
             | 
             | Rim and microsoft were squeezed out _by android_ , That
             | wasn't an inevitable outcome - it was the result of google
             | buying android. Google staying entrenched as the top search
             | engine may also have something to do with their ownership
             | of android.
             | 
             | You can pick apart some of my examples, sure, but if even
             | one of those is true then of the hundreds (thousands?) of
             | companies acquired by faang you must know that a good
             | percentage of those would be viable stable workplaces...
             | they were purchased usually because of that _exact_ threat!
             | and then repeat that for every industry in the economy with
             | large players in it...
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | They were squeezed out by Android that was given away for
               | free. How was a hypothetical Android company going to
               | survive giving its only product away for free?
               | 
               | > you must know that a good percentage of those would be
               | viable stable workplaces
               | 
               | How many former unicorns that did go public in the last
               | decade are actually profitable today?
        
               | passwordoops wrote:
               | And how many funders, seeing that unicorns are illusions
               | bound for failure in a market where anti trust is
               | enforced, would invest in better and more stable start
               | ups worth actual real-world business plans?
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Doesn't that argue against Android being successful as a
               | stand alone entity? Android had no business model.
        
               | passwordoops wrote:
               | Exactly it doesn't. Android would have gone away or been
               | a DIY tool.
               | 
               | And in a proper anti-trust environment, the app store
               | (which Steve Jobs really resisted anyway) wouldn't have
               | been permitted to act the way it did and probably make
               | the iPhone too restrictive for most people to adopt.
               | 
               | So other consumer-driven solutions would have come about.
               | It's not rocket science.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Yes because a DIY tool would have really taken off in the
               | market.
               | 
               | And how would it have been better for Android not to
               | exist?
               | 
               | And yes it's not rocket science, that must be why all of
               | the other open source mobile operating systems given away
               | for free have been so successful. Who was going to fund
               | it in your hypothetical world?
               | 
               | Yes and in a "proper anti trust world" a manufacturer who
               | at the time had 1% of the mobile operating system would
               | have come under scrutiny because of anti trust.
               | 
               | On stage during the launch, SJ said their goal was to
               | capture 1% of the market in the first year. They barely
               | reached that by the time the app store was launched.
        
               | wizzwizz4 wrote:
               | > _Yes because a DIY tool would have really taken off in
               | the market._
               | 
               | *points at Linux, C, algebra, writing*
               | 
               | > _And how would it have been better for Android not to
               | exist?_
               | 
               | *points at Boot2Gecko, J2ME, PalmOS*
               | 
               | Also, false dichotomy. Android (or something like it) may
               | well have still existed; just, it likely wouldn't've been
               | so dominant (and its ecosystem wouldn't've been so
               | reliant on proprietary Google libraries, which prevent
               | people from running Android programs on non-Google
               | systems).
               | 
               | > _Yes and in a "proper anti trust world" a manufacturer
               | who at the time had 1% of the mobile operating system
               | would have come under scrutiny because of anti trust._
               | 
               | ... Yes. In case you're not aware, Apple already had a
               | rather special relationship with telecoms companies at
               | the time; something (e.g.) Handspring lacked.
               | 
               | The point of antitrust isn't to break up monopolies
               | _after_ they 've already done damage to the market. It's
               | to ensure that market dynamics continue to actually
               | function in the real world - to ensure that the free
               | market at least _somewhat_ resembles a meritocracy.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | > points at Linux, C, algebra, writing
               | 
               | And the largest contributors to Linux are corporations.
               | Are we really going to bring up the other irrelevant non
               | sequiturs?
               | 
               | > points at Boot2Gecko, J2ME, PalmOS*
               | 
               | And they all failed even though they had much larger
               | commercial backers. None of them were scrappy startups.
               | 
               | > which prevent people from running Android programs on
               | non-Google systems).
               | 
               | Yet over 1 billion people use phones based on Android in
               | countries like China without any Google services.
               | 
               | > Yes. In case you're not aware, Apple already had a
               | rather special relationship with telecoms companies at
               | the time.
               | 
               | Apple had a relationship with _one_ telecom when the App
               | Store was introduced - AT &T.
               | 
               | > Handspring lacked.
               | 
               | Palm phones were out before the iPhone existed.
        
               | fakedang wrote:
               | Android should have been a foundation a la Linux.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Who was going to write it and maintain it?
        
           | gofreddygo wrote:
           | Don't forget Pebble.
        
             | adastra22 wrote:
             | I miss my pebble :(
             | 
             | Also Fitbit, nest.
        
             | Danieru wrote:
             | Vine
        
         | blowski wrote:
         | People are complicated! I like being healthy, but I also like
         | eating pizza with mountains of cheese.
         | 
         | Wearing my "enterprise architect" hat, I love stability. I
         | don't want to choose a technology that just might be the silver
         | bullet but probably isn't, and will in fact be abandoned and
         | need replacing in 2 years.
         | 
         | But with my "Hacker News reader" hat on, stability is boring.
         | Constantly inventing and testing new ways of doing things is
         | how we progress as a species. Anti-trust speeds that up and so
         | I love it.
         | 
         | I guess I want a constant churn of innovation with other people
         | bearing the risk. Perhaps if anti-trust were more aggressive it
         | would at least level the playing field - at the moment, most
         | innovation is from companies who can afford to drop $10B as an
         | experiment. (And they get a tax refund either way.)
        
       | revskill wrote:
       | I don't trust any article without a TLDR at the beginning of the
       | article.
        
       | majikandy wrote:
       | Great movie.
        
         | cheschire wrote:
         | It was a good movie, but IMO was a bit too silly / cliche to be
         | great. Good bones though.
        
       | bigmattystyles wrote:
       | As long as the megacorp I work for is exempt, then of course!
        
         | [deleted]
        
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